EconomicGreenfield

NFIB Small Business Optimism – May 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 21:22:24 +0000

The May 2026 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 9, 2026.

The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .6 points to 95.3.

Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with):

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell .6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from April to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68.

Below is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the May 2026 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends (pdf) report:

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7386.65 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – June 8, 2026 Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 20:52:00 +0000

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written. While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” label]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through June 8, 2026 with a last price of 7405.73), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7405.73 as this post is written

Recession Probability Models – June 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 14:30:25 +0000

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve. I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010, titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.”

Currently (last updated June 4, 2026 using data through May 2026) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 14.9758% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. For comparison purposes, it showed a 17.6275% probability through April 2026, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger. This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

Additional details and explanations can be seen on the “U.S. Recession Probabilities” page.

This model, last updated on June 1, 2026 currently shows a .44% probability using data through April 2026.

Here is the FRED chart:

Data Source: Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed June 5, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N

–

The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent posts. For instance, as seen in the April 12, 2026 post titled “The April 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey “ economists surveyed averaged a 33% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7383.74 as this post is written

“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of June 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 22:42:12 +0000

In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working.

Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in which I discussed various facets of this measure.

Below is an updated chart regarding this statistic. The current figure, last updated on June 5, 2026 depicting data through May 2026, is 105.253 Million people (Not Seasonally Adjusted):

Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not in Labor Force [LNU05000000], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed June 5, 2026:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05000000

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7383.74 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 16:58:19 +0000

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $37.53):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 6-5-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

–

This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 6-5-26)

–

There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $32.31):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 6-5-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

–

Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 6-5-26)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7453.12 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of June 5, 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 15:48:44 +0000

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site. The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.3% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

–

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 8.1% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7490.50 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – June 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:26:52 +0000

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site. Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.6 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 6-5-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

–

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.988 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

–

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 159.001 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed June 5, 2026: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

–

Our unemployment problem is severe. The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome. These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category. This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7519.23 as this post is written

U.S. Dollar Decline – June 1, 2026 Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 19:03:23 +0000

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial Dollar decline can’t, in my opinion, be overstated.

The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.

First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983. This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:

(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale. The red line represents a (past) trendline. The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):

–

Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a daily LOG scale. There is possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:

–

I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7580.06 as this post is written

Problems Within The U.S. Economic Situation – June 1, 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:00:00 +0000

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future.

However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that have existed prior to 2020, and continue to exist. As well, numerous economic dynamics continue to be exceedingly worrisome and many economic indicators have portrayed facets of weak growth or outright decline currently as well as prior to 2020.

Of paramount importance is the resulting level of risk and the future economic implications.

From an “all things considered” standpoint, I continue to believe the overall level of risk remains at a fantastic level – one that is far greater than that experienced at any time in the history of the United States.

Cumulatively, these highly problematical conditions will lead to future upheaval. The extent of the resolution of these problematical conditions will determine the ongoing viability of the financial system and economy as well as the resultant quality of living.

As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7580.06 as this post is written

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through May 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 29 May 2026 20:21:23 +0000

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through May 2026.

While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability.

A description of this measure, as seen in FRED:

This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero.

The chart, on a monthly basis from January 1990 – May 2026, with a last reading of .00000, last updated on May 29, 2026:

Here is this same U.S. deflation probability measure since 2008:

source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Deflation Probability [STLPPMDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 29, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLPPMDEF

_________

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7580.06 as this post is written

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Thu, 28 May 2026 17:56:17 +0000

In the last post (“1st Quarter 2026 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons. As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the first quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is still at levels that can be seen as historically high. While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs. This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors. In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 28, 2026

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7562.29 as this post is written

1st Quarter 2026 Corporate Profits

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Thu, 28 May 2026 17:37:12 +0000

Today’s (May 28, 2026) GDP release (Q1 2026, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 1st Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated May 28, 2026 with a value of $3,917.196 Billion SAAR):

–

Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective (value of 17.4%):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed May 28, 2026; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7562.36 as this post is written

Money Supply Charts Through April 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Tue, 26 May 2026 20:19:10 +0000

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply.

The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on May 26, 2026 depicting data through April 2026, with a value of $19,531.8 Billion:

Here is the “M1 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.9%:

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M1 Money Stock [M1SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 26, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The second set shows M2, defined in FRED as the following:

Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” (seasonally adjusted) chart, updated on May 26, 2026, depicting data through April 2026, with a value of $22,804.50 Billion:

Here is the “M2 Money Stock” chart on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis, with a current value of 4.7%:

Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 26, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7519.12 as this post is written

The U.S. Economic Situation – May 24, 2026 Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Sun, 24 May 2026 14:49:45 +0000

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, sustainable long-term economic vitality is to be realized.

There are an array of indications and other “warning signs” – many readily apparent – that current economic activity and financial market performance is accompanied by exceedingly perilous dynamics.

I have written extensively about this peril, including in the following:

“Building Financial Danger” (ongoing updates)

“A Special Note On Our Economic Situation”

“Forewarning Pronounced Economic Weakness”

“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis”

“Was A Depression Successfully Avoided?”

“Has the Financial System Strengthened Since the Financial Crisis?”

“The Next Crash And Its Significance”

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

For long-term reference purposes, here is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1900, depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale (updated through May 22, 2026 with a last value of 50,579.70):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7473.47 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Sun, 17 May 2026 17:15:57 +0000

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May 15, 2026:

from page 32:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

from page 33:

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.50 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2026-2028 As Of May 15, 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Sun, 17 May 2026 16:24:24 +0000

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings label)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 15, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year 2023 value is $221.36/share; the year 2024 value is $242.73/share; and the year 2025 value is $271.29/share:

Year 2026 estimate:

$336.14/share

Year 2027 estimate:

$387.74/share

Year 2028 estimate:

$435.96/share

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.50 as this post is written

Philadelphia Fed – 2nd Quarter 2026 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 15 May 2026 21:01:09 +0000

The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 15, 2026. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2026: 2.2%

full-year 2027: 1.9%

full-year 2028: 2.2%

full-year 2029: 2.3%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2026: 4.4%

for 2027: 4.5%

for 2028: 4.4%

for 2029: 4.4%

–

Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 17.9%, 25.1%, 24.5%, 25.7%, and 23.0% for each of the quarters from Q2 2026 through Q2 2027, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2035) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each. Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE. Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.1% to 6.0% range.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7408.50 as this post is written

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payroll – May 9, 2026 Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Sat, 09 May 2026 14:36:11 +0000

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS).

PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as:

All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.
Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women’s participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.
The series comes from the ‘Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey).’
The source code is: CES0000000001

The first chart shows the monthly change in Total Nonfarm Payroll from the year 2000 through the current April 2026 report (April 2026 value of 115 (Thousands)):

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 9, 2026; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

The second chart shows a longer-term chart of the same month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Payroll (reports of February 1939 through the present report of April 2026):

The third chart shows the aggregate number of Total Nonfarm Payroll, from the reports of January 1939 – April 2026 (April 2026 value of 158.736 million):

The fourth chart shows this same measure of aggregate number of Total Nonfarm Payroll as seen above but presented on a LOG scale:

Lastly, the fifth chart shows the Total Nonfarm Payroll number on a “Percent Change from Year Ago” basis from January 1940 – April 2026: (April 2026 value of .2%)

_________

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7398.93 as this post is written

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 08 May 2026 16:31:51 +0000

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $37.41):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

–

This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

–

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

–

Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis. While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 5-8-26)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

_________

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7396.78 as this post is written

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of May 8, 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 08 May 2026 15:26:39 +0000

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.”

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.3% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

–

Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 8.2% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7385.83 as this post is written

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – May 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 08 May 2026 14:40:28 +0000

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site. Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.0 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 5-8-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

–

Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.833 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

–

Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 158.736 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed May 8, 2026: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

–

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7391.22 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – May 8, 2026 Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 08 May 2026 12:58:12 +0000

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through May 7, 2026 with a last price of 7337.11), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7337.11 as this post is written

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q4 2025

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 01 May 2026 19:19:18 +0000

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of April 10, 2026, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2026.”

While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the results of these models and estimates should be monitored.

Another probability of recession is provided by James Hamilton, and it is titled “GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.” A description of this index, as seen in FRED:

This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event , this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time.
If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over.

Additional reference sources for this index and its construction can be seen in the Econbrowser post of February 14, 2016 titled “Recession probabilities” as well as on the “The Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index” page.

Below is a chart depicting the most recent value of 7.70000% for the fourth quarter of 2025, last updated on April 30 (after the April 30, 2026 Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate)):

source: Hamilton, James, GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index [JHGDPBRINDX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 1, 2026:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHGDPBRINDX#

_________

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7233.30 as this post is written

U.S. Dollar Decline – May 1, 2026 Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 01 May 2026 11:55:44 +0000

The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.

First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983. This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:

(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

–

Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale. The red line represents a (past) trendline. The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):

–

Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a daily LOG scale. There is possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:

–

I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7209.01 as this post is written

Problems Within The U.S. Economic Situation – May 1, 2026

noreply@blogger.com (Ted Kavadas) — Fri, 01 May 2026 11:48:35 +0000

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future.

Of paramount importance is the resulting level of risk and the future economic implications.

As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well. Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact. This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 7209.01 as this post is written