Economist Blog

THERE’S AN EXIT STRATEGY LURKING OUT THERE SOMEWHERE

admin — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:44:26 +0000

Submitted by The Capital Spectator Sometimes one comment says it all. That describes Jim O’Neill’s observation that a fair amount of levitation work awaits central bankers the world over. Timing, of course, is unknown. Meantime, there’s a few (or many) potholes on the road to economic salvation. The chief global economist at Goldman Sachs Group in London [...]

Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers

admin — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:43:04 +0000

Submitted by Econbrowser (Warning: Might be considered “wonky” by some) In many economic analyses, one wants to isolate the “business cycle” component of macroeconomic series. Here is one such series, which has had a detrending technique applied to it. Try to guess what it is. Figure 1The above series is the Hodrick-Prescott filtered net exports to GDP [...]

Prosperity: Comparing India and China

admin — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:41:32 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM On a lot of important measures of prosperity, India tops China these days according to the new 2009 Legatum Prosperity Index, read what AEI’s Nick Schulz has to say about it here. Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.

Great Depression II? Not Even Close

admin — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 03:40:10 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM I’m travelling today to give a talk at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank branch in Detroit, so might not have a lot of time for new posts, but I have one here at AEI’s Enterprise Blog. In a few years when all of the economic analysis is complete, I think the “Great [...]

Quotes of the Day: Thomas Sowell

admin — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:54:22 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM 1. If we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals and pharmaceutical drugs now, how can we afford to pay for doctors, hospitals and pharmaceutical drugs, in addition to a new federal bureaucracy to administer a government-run medical system? 2. Economics and politics confront the same fundamental problem: What everyone wants adds up [...]

Cut In Half Overnight: Intrade Odds for Healthcare

admin — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:53:10 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM Intrade odds for Health Care passing by December dropped overnight from 14% yesterday to only 6% today (graph shows 7%, but the current buy price is 6). Could it have anything to do with the election results? Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.

10 Year Nominal-Real Treasury Spread Now at 2%

admin — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:51:57 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM The spread between nominal 10-year treasuries (data) and 10-year TIPS (data) has increased to about 2% this week, up from almost 0% at the beginning of the year. The 200 basis point spread is still below the 250 basis point average during 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and the first half of [...]

MINING THE WEB FOR STRATEGIC INSIGHT AND PULLING UP A FEW NUGGETS

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:43:57 +0000

Submitted by The Capital Spectator The first rule in the money game is recognizing that there are no silver bullets. Asset pricing is a black box. It’s become somewhat less of a black box after a half century of analysis by financial economists, but what we don’t know about how markets work still dominates by far. Much [...]

Current economic conditions

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:42:10 +0000

Submitted by Econbrowser The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn’t look as strong as we had been hoping. Data source: Wardsauto.com < U.S. light vehicle sales last month were up slightly from September and about the same as October 2008. Given how dismal those comparison months were, that’s not saying much. Last month’s sales were 3.5% [...]

Jacoby’s “Public Option”: More Choice

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:39:18 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM More competition among health insurers is a consummation to be devoutly wished. But there are better ways to get there than a public option. Here are three: ■Tear down the barriers to buying insurance across state lines. ■ Repeal mandatory benefits that make health insurance needlessly expensive. ■ De-link health insurance from employment. Read [...]

Enjoy a Turkey Dinner for Eight for $20

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:37:52 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM You can also pick up a $298 HP Notebook computer, 42-inch Sharp HDTV for $498, or a Panasonic plasma HDTV for $788. Where else? Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.

Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator Rebounds to Highest Level Since August 2008

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:36:47 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM NEW YORK, November 2, 2009 – The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose to 36.9 in October, up from 34.1 in September as a result of positive media coverage of ongoing stock market gains and news that the gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the [...]

False Lessons of History for Policy Guidance

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:35:16 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM The true lesson to be drawn from business cycle history is that, if left to run their natural course, severe downturns are followed by rapid snapbacks. For example, during the 1921 recession, wholesale prices, industrial production, and manufacturing employment fell by 30% or more, reaching their low in mid-1921. But, absent government [...]

“Bringing Down the Cost of Medical Care”

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:33:35 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM Although it is cheaper to buy a pint of milk than to buy a quart of milk, nobody considers that to be lowering the price of milk. Although it is cheaper to buy a lower quality of all sorts of goods than to buy a higher quality, nobody thinks of that as [...]

Markets in Everything: Pay-By-The Mile Insurance

admin — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:52:20 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM A first-of-its-kind plan is MileMeter, available only in Texas, which last year began offering six-month policies with chunks of insured miles ranging from 1,000 to 6,000 miles. When the “tank” runs dry, motorists buy more. “We absolutely anticipate coming to California,” said Chris Gay, MileMeter founder and chief executive officer. “Our take is [...]