Economist Blog

A Self-Inflicted Nightmare?

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:22:43 +0000

Submitted by A Dash of Insight There has been plenty of criticism of public policy related to credit markets. Supervision of ratings agencies, lack of transparency, bad incentives — you name it. No objection here. The Fed, the Treasury, the SEC, the Administration, and the Congress have all gotten their share of blame. GSE’s are criticized as an [...]

Cartoon of the Day

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:19:38 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.

Thank God for the Chinese Consumer

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:18:38 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM The health of the global economy used to rest on the back of the American consumer. Now it will rely on the Chinese. In the U.S. and Europe, public debate centers on China as a low-cost producer that puts workers in the developed world out to pasture; hence the popularity of antitrade legislation. [...]

Some Hope in Pending Home Sales Data?

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:17:53 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM US News and World Report – After months and months of painful data, economists said there is a sliver of sunshine in a housing report released today. The National Association of Realtors announced that June pending homes sales increased a stronger-than-expected 5.3% from the previous month, although sales remain more than 12% lower [...]

Movies Recession-Prone: Another Myth Dies

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:32:19 +0000

Submitted by Businomics Blog Hollywood has said that it’s recession proof, because in hard times people will seek escape from their worries by going to the movies. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports a new study that found just the opposite–when time are tough, people skip the movie-popcorn-soda expense. Perhaps they watch a movie on [...]

MORE TROUBLE IN THE WEEKLY JOBLESS NUMBERS

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:31:02 +0000

Submitted by The Capital Spectator The Labor Department brings more bad news this morning. The short summary: new filings for unemployment benefits rose again last week, as did the rolls of those previously collecting jobless benefits. As our first chart below reminds, the trend in jobless claims continues to deteriorate, which is to say that the population [...]

King Dollar Rally Continues

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:29:37 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM The summer rally for the U.S. dollar continued, as the Broad Dollar Index went above 73 today for the first time since mid-February (see graph above). Today’s index of 73.05 is 4.35% above the level of 70 in mid-July. Visit 1800blogger to see all of our industry leading blogs.

If You Subsidize Unemployment Benefits, Guess What Happens? You Get More Unemployment

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:28:56 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM USA Today – The Labor Department said Thursday that new applications for unemployment insurance rose a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 455,000 for the week ended Aug. 2, the highest level since March 2002. The latest snapshot of layoff filings is worse than analysts expected. Economists were expecting claims to drop to around 430,000. The [...]

Adjusted for the Growth in the U.S. Labor Force, July’s Jobless Claims Are Below Average

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:28:06 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM The top chart above shows initial jobless claims (4-week moving average) and the civilian labor force from 1987 to July 2008. The labor force has increased by 30% since 1987, so the frequent comparisons of today’s jobless claims of around 419,500 (4-week moving average, see today’s BLS report) to previous periods and [...]

Options Expand For Avoiding Crowded, Pricey ERs

admin — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:27:04 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM When a heavy metal door swung over her 14-year-old son’s foot, ripping the nail almost completely off his big toe, Tina Mobley didn’t want to take her chances in a crowded hospital emergency room or wait for an appointment at the pediatrician’s office the next day. Instead, she drove to an urgent-care [...]

Index Investing: Refusing to Believe in Magic

admin — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:19:13 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM …building a portfolio around index funds isn’t really settling for average. It’s just refusing to believe in magic. ~Fortune, 1999 A number of smart people are involved in running hedge funds. But to a great extent their efforts are self-neutralizing, and their IQ will not overcome the costs they impose on investors. Investors, on [...]

King Dollar Makes A Comeback

admin — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:18:28 +0000

Submitted by CARPE DIEM The U.S. dollar index for major currencies (data here) came close to a 6-month high yesterday, reaching the highest level since mid-February. Forward markets are pricing the dollar at $1.9071/BP (+2.24% premium) and $1.5166/Euro in one year (+1.64% premium), vs. $1.9507/BP and $1.5419/Euro currently. Visit 1800blogger to see all of our [...]

BENCHMARKING THE ECONOMY

admin — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:44:12 +0000

Submitted by The Capital Spectator With the last of the June economic data in hand, it’s time to update the CS Economic Index, which is calculated monthly. As our chart below shows, and anecdotal evidence suggests, the U.S. economy is weak and getting weaker. The black line in the chart above, which runs through June 2008, is [...]

Synergies of the unpleasant kind: recessions, credit crunches and housing busts

admin — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:42:57 +0000

Submitted by Econbrowser From the abstract of a new paper by Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose and Marco E. Terrones, entitled “What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?” (paper now online here): We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over [...]

Think You can Predict GDP Revisions? Think Again!

admin — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:40:56 +0000

Submitted by A Dash of Insight The focus group here at “A Dash” rejected the original title for this piece, the more professorial “Understanding and Predicting Revisions in Government Data.” Whatever the title, it is the same topic. It will be uninteresting to the many who have already made up their minds. It continues our theme about [...]