http://www.businesscycle.com/ECRI: Most recent News.en-ushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forex-analytix-interview-the-money-illusion-immaculate-disinflation-and chubby-checkerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forex-analytix-interview-the-money-illusion-immaculate-disinflation-and chubby-checkerECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Forex Analytix's Dale Pinkert about the crosscurrents around growth and inflation. Our cyclical framework continues to cut through the competing narratives around inflation expectations.Lakshman calls the pullback in inflation "The Immaculate Disinflation". We have posted today's interview with Lakshman Achuthan @businesscycle: https://t.co/QaDPD0SQlE @ForexS...ECRIThu, 09 Feb 2023 13:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-opinion-don-t-be-fooled-a-recession-really-is-cominghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-opinion-don-t-be-fooled-a-recession-really-is-comingRecession concerns in the US are widespread these days. Yet, some economists argue that the strength of the labor market — as well as household balance sheets — will keep the economy strong enough to avoid a recession. We disagree. Despite the relatively robust job growth we've been seeing, the Economic Cycle Research Institute , which we co-founded, has been predicting recession since last spr...ECRIFri, 13 Jan 2023 15:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-on-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-on-inflationECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Julie Hyman, Brian Sozzi, and Brad Smith on Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the latest CPI release, the Fed, and where inflation is headed.“Prices will come down if there’s a recession… but for me, the Fed pivot might come a little sooner,” SMBC Nikko Securities America Chief Economist @Lavorgnanomics says, alongside @businesscycle’s Lakshman Achuthan. Full comment...ECRITue, 13 Dec 2022 12:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interview-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interview-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance Live, Tuesday, December 13 at 10:00AM ET.ECRITue, 13 Dec 2022 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-leading-indicators-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-leading-indicators-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join David Rosenberg on Tuesday, December 6 at 4:00PM ET, to share his views on the economic outlook.ECRITue, 06 Dec 2022 16:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-ism-s-p-services-show-slowing-trend-ecri-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-ism-s-p-services-show-slowing-trend-ecri-recessionBy Julie Hyman, anchor and correspondent at Yahoo Finance. Investors rely on a host of different readings to determine where the economy is headed.So: what happens when two surveys that purport to measure the same thing show diverging results?Economists try to find a middle ground.Two different organizations released reports Monday on the services sector of the U.S. economy.And looked at indivi...ECRITue, 06 Dec 2022 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-leading-indicators-energyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-leading-indicators-energyECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Ed Fortunato of Constellation Energy on Monday, November 21 at 2:00PM ET, to share his views on the economic outlook.ECRIMon, 21 Nov 2022 14:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-money-control-interview-india-s-exports-won-t-rebound-before-mid-2023http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-money-control-interview-india-s-exports-won-t-rebound-before-mid-2023A rebound in India's exports will not emerge before the middle of 2023 given the weakness in global demand, says Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute ."Not in the coming months, certainly not before mid-2023," Achuthan said when asked when exports may experience a revival."But it's just too soon to tell because our leading indexes don't yet see a...ECRIThu, 17 Nov 2022 11:53:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-presentation-growth-inflation-business-cycle-housinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-presentation-growth-inflation-business-cycle-housingECRI's Lakshman Achuthan's presented "Cycle Risk is Investment Risk" at the Stansberry Research Conference presentation from October 24, 2022. Topics included risk assets, economic growth, inflation, housing, and more.ECRIThu, 17 Nov 2022 08:35:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-recession-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-recession-chinaECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined YahooFinance Live with Julie Hyman, Brian Sozzie, Brad Smith, and Matt Luzzetti, to discuss today's jobs report, U.S. recession severity, and the outlook for China. ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2022 11:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-leading-indicatorshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-jobs-employment-leading-indicatorsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance Live, Friday, November 4 at 8:30AM ET.ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2022 08:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-stansberry-research-20th-annual-conference-market-volatility-inflation-and-recessionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-stansberry-research-20th-annual-conference-market-volatility-inflation-and-recessionsWatch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan at The Stansberry Research 20th Annual Conference, sharing our unique views on the recent market volatility, inflation, and the Fed. Also covered, ECRI's cyclical perspective on recessions and the bond market.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and Yo...ECRIThu, 27 Oct 2022 11:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forex-analytix-interview-growth-inflation-pmis-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forex-analytix-interview-growth-inflation-pmis-and-the-fedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Forex Analytix's Dale Pinkert about prospects for growth, inflation, PMI's and policy.ECRIWed, 26 Oct 2022 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-jobs-inflation-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-jobs-inflation-and-the-fedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Julie Hyman, Brian Sozzi, and Brad Smith on Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the jobs report, CPI, and the Fed.“The Fed has chosen the recession — the intention is the pain,’ @businesscycle Co-Founder Lakshman Achuthan says, adding: “And so, will they go too far… in the sense that there will be a recession? I think, yes.” pic.twitter.com/RtcpmqRauI— Yahoo Finance Oc...ECRIMon, 10 Oct 2022 12:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interview-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance Live, Monday, October 10 at 10:00AM ET.ECRIMon, 10 Oct 2022 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-alt-asset-allocations-podcast-interview-public-comments-on-the-growth-and-inflation-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-alt-asset-allocations-podcast-interview-public-comments-on-the-growth-and-inflation-outlooksECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Ben Lakoff on The Alt Asset Allocation Podcast on August 10, 2022. The discussion included where we are in the cycle, as well as ECRI's public inflation and growth outlooks. See the interview breakdown with time codes below:0:00:00 Welcome and context0:02:10 Where are we in the business cycle right now?0:09:07 What can we learn from the previous cycles?0:16:05 Wh...ECRITue, 20 Sep 2022 09:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fox-business-making-money-with-charles-payne-are-recessions-the-achilles-heel-of-free-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fox-business-making-money-with-charles-payne-are-recessions-the-achilles-heel-of-free-marketsECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Making Money with Charles Payne to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, specifically inflation and recession risks.Great interview today with @cvpayne. Watch here: https://t.co/EvLpaGPPHL— Lakshman Achuthan September 14, 2022ECRIWed, 14 Sep 2022 16:38:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-the-secret-of-soft-landingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-the-secret-of-soft-landingsECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna of MacroVoices to discuss:- Redefining recession and what it means moving forward- Is recession upon us?- Where we stand in the cycle- Central banks’ roles in the market and how it impacts leading indicators- What to anticipate in multi-year QT- Has the recovery already begun?  Download accompanying deck and full transcript here....ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2022 11:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-cnbctv18-india-interview-global-markets-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-cnbctv18-india-interview-global-markets-and-the-fedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Executive Editor Latha Venkatesh for a CNBCTV18 India interview on August 29, 2022 to discuss the markets, global central bankers, prospects for growth and inflation, including the probability of a soft landing.Is there a recession down the corner? Should the dips be bought? The master of business cycles, Lakshman Achuthan of Economic Cycle Research Institute cha...ECRITue, 30 Aug 2022 13:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-no-bull-market-talk-george-noblehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-no-bull-market-talk-george-nobleECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined George Noble for a No Bull Market Talk spaces interview on August 25, 2022.Lakshman dropping truth bombs; Jerome Powell and the Fed need to listen. https://t.co/Jom0NnjAMA— George Noble August 25, 2022ECRIFri, 26 Aug 2022 16:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-tradegatehub-interview-the-state-of-the-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-tradegatehub-interview-the-state-of-the-economyECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with TradeGATEHub LIVE Trading's Dale Pinkert to discuss the state of the economy prior to Jackson Hole.Lakshman @businesscycle discusses the state of the economy prior to Jackson Hole. Lakshman showed his leading indicators showing no signs of a trough. He showed "The Volcker Cocktail" of decelerating growth and aggressive glob al central bank tightening https://...ECRIThu, 18 Aug 2022 15:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-lead-lag-michael-gayed-the-business-cycle-returns-macrohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-lead-lag-michael-gayed-the-business-cycle-returns-macroECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Michael Gayed for a Lead-Lag Live spaces interview on August 4, 2022.ECRIThu, 11 Aug 2022 09:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-jay-martin-show-youtube-why-economic-cycles-matter-for-investors-and-the-overall-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-jay-martin-show-youtube-why-economic-cycles-matter-for-investors-and-the-overall-marketECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined The Jay Martin Show to discuss our repeatable process, history, the economy and inflation outlook.Video segment breakdown:00:00 Introduction00:10 Where is Lakshman Putting His Wealth?02:05 Risk-Off Market05:38 Concerns in the Economy15:25 Inflation and Employment24:02 Self-Fulfilling Recession31:50 Growth & Inflation Forecast"That’s the nature of a free-market or...ECRIMon, 01 Aug 2022 15:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-why-some-people-actually-want-a-recession-and-others-say-that-s-crazyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-why-some-people-actually-want-a-recession-and-others-say-that-s-crazyThe US economy is on a knife's edge, potentially already in a recession after a second quarter of shrinking activity. But indicators are mixed, fueling uncertainty about the way forward.At the core of the debate among economists and policymakers is a fundamental question with massive implications for America's future: Which is worse — inflation, or a recession?No one seems to agree one way or a...ECRISat, 30 Jul 2022 08:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-opinion-the-types-of-jobs-to-look-for-and-avoid-during-a-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-opinion-the-types-of-jobs-to-look-for-and-avoid-during-a-recessionA couple of months ago, when the consensus outlook for the economy was fairly sanguine, we warned that the economy was "close to entering a recession," but that there was still time to make hay in the jobs market.But now that a recession is clearly looming, the window of opportunity for job seekers is slowly starting to close.With gross domestic product data showing the key measure of economic ...ECRIFri, 29 Jul 2022 11:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-ecri-does-two-down-quarters-gdp-mean-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-ecri-does-two-down-quarters-gdp-mean-recessionWith real GDP falling again in Q2 2022 after declining in Q1 2022, many will likely conclude that we’re in recession. In fact, the data show that, over the past 75 years, there’s been a U.S. recession every time real GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters .Over those 75 years there have also been two recessions without back-to-back declines in real GDP, namely the 1960-61 and 2001 recessio...ECRIThu, 28 Jul 2022 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-an-unrivaled-track-recordhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-an-unrivaled-track-recordFirst, let’s be clear on just what constitutes a recession. It isn’t simply two down quarters of GDP, which is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for recession. Some might say that’s a distinction without a difference. Nothing could be further from the truth.A recession is a self-reinforcing downturn in economic activity, when a drop in spending leads to cutbacks in production and t...ECRIMon, 18 Jul 2022 10:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-jobs-the-fed-and-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-jobs-the-fed-and-recession-riskECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss jobs growth, the Fed, and the risk of recession.ECRI Co-Founder @businesscycle on recession indicators: “It’s very clear we do not have falling employment… It's not unusual if you look at past history over decades to see the employment market pretty tight in the run-up to a recession.” pic.twitter.com/dLUaMBtCOS— Yahoo Finance July 8...ECRIFri, 08 Jul 2022 10:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance Live, Friday, July 8 at 8:30AM ET.ECRIFri, 08 Jul 2022 07:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forex-analytix-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forex-analytix-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Forex Analytix's Dale Pinkert to discuss our current public outlook.Lakshman said we're in an Industrial Growth Slowdown.We have now posted today's interview with Lakshman Achuthan@businesscycle: https://t.co/rgz46o0o38 @ForexStopHunter @PipCzar @SteliosConto @GregaHorvatFX @Trading_Jazz @forexflowlive @KVanderschrick #FOREX #TRADING pic.twitter.com/N6vVFSV4z...ECRIWed, 06 Jul 2022 09:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-podcast-what-the-business-cycle-is-telling-us-about-a-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-podcast-what-the-business-cycle-is-telling-us-about-a-recessionListen to Investopedia's Caleb Silver interview ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan regarding ECRI's latest public outlook. On The @Investopedia Express, @businesscycle weighs in on the signs of a #Recession, why it's necessary, and what to do about it. Plus, #stocks rallied last wk, but as @llcoolj says, 'Don't call it a comeback!'Tune in : https://t.co/i20wAGFBMT & https://t.co/USSqHahKAC pic.twitter.co...ECRIMon, 27 Jun 2022 13:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-u-s-inflation-the-fed-and-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-u-s-inflation-the-fed-and-recession-riskECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Yahoo Finance Live to discuss recession risk, inflation, and the Fed.Economic Cycle Research Institute Co-Founder @businesscycle on the Fed: “We wrote in January that because they were so late in going after inflation, slowing things down, they now are trying to make up for it and catch the train, but the train left the station a long time ago.” pic.twitter.c...ECRIFri, 10 Jun 2022 13:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-live-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance Live, Friday, June 10 at 10:00AM ET to discuss CPI, inflation and the risk of recession.ECRIFri, 10 Jun 2022 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-exports-consumer-spending-and-global-industrial-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-exports-consumer-spending-and-global-industrial-growthKeywords:World trade growth, consumer spending outlook, supply chains, global industrial growth outlook, country-specific prospectsReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 01 Jun 2022 16:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-ecri-as-an-input-to-a-decision-making-processhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-leading-index-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-ecri-as-an-input-to-a-decision-making-processA key reason for ECRI as an input to a decision-making process is evident by reviewing the periods when we diverged from the consensus in real-time. The closing lines from a Jan. 2022 client report summarized one such divergence:“The point is that asset prices are at a pinnacle from which a precipitous drop is plausible. We are watching closely to see if the collision of a hawkish Fed and an ec...ECRIWed, 01 Jun 2022 16:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-supply-chains-and-recession-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-supply-chains-and-recession-risksKeywords:Global, manufacturing outlook, supply chains, global industrial cycle, Chinese economy, country-specific recession risksReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIThu, 26 May 2022 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-opinion-it-s-time-to-prepare-for-a-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-opinion-it-s-time-to-prepare-for-a-recessionThe economy is close to entering a recession, perhaps as soon as this year. To avoid taking too much of a financial hit, Americans will need to prepare.Last summer, we wrote that US economic growth was already starting to slow and the economy would keep decelerating in the coming months. That is already proving to be true, with year-over-year GDP growth declining from 12.2% in the second quarte...ECRIThu, 26 May 2022 16:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-manufacturing-update-the-fed-s-softish-landinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-manufacturing-update-the-fed-s-softish-landingKeywords:U.S., manufacturing outlook, industrial commodity price inflation, the Fed, soft landing, hard landingReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIThu, 19 May 2022 14:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-job-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-job-growth-prospectsKeywords:U.S., employment growth prospects, inflation, labor market, Fed's policy focus, unemployment rateReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 11 May 2022 14:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-translating-cycle-research-into-actionable-insightshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-translating-cycle-research-into-actionable-insightsOur work shows that if you want to manage equity market risk, it’s important to understand that major corrections are linked to growth rate cycle downturns in the economy.For more watch: Navigating U.S. Economic Growth: ECRI's Cyclical ViewOur work shows that if you want to manage equity market risk, it’s important to understand that major corrections are linked to growth rate cycle downturns i...ECRIThu, 05 May 2022 14:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-chinese-outlook-amid-covid-lockdownshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-chinese-outlook-amid-covid-lockdownsKeywords:China, economic growth prospects, Covid lockdowns, exports, inflation, home price, supply chain dynamics, President Xi, Ukraine, RussiaReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 04 May 2022 15:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-international-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-international-cyclical-outlookKeywords:Economic growth prospects, G7 economies, Japan, UK, Russia, Poland, China, Eurozone, central bank, monetary policyReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 27 Apr 2022 14:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-services-consumer-spending-and-inflation-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-services-consumer-spending-and-inflation-outlooksKeywords:U.S., service sector, the Fed, monetary tightening, inflation, consumer spending, supply issuesReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 20 Apr 2022 16:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-eurozone-recession-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-eurozone-recession-prospectsKeywords:Eurozone, inflation, consumer spending, trade, economic growthReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 13 Apr 2022 14:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-oil-shocks-and-recessionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-oil-shocks-and-recessionsKeywords:Oil price shocks, recessions, consumer spending, Fed, stock marketReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 06 Apr 2022 14:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-eurozone-global-industrial-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-eurozone-global-industrial-growth-outlookKeywords:Eurozone, U.S., China, global industrial growth, inflation expectations, monetary policy, recession prospectsReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIFri, 25 Mar 2022 14:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-u-s-economic-consumer-spending-inflation-cycle-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-u-s-economic-consumer-spending-inflation-cycle-outlooksKeywords:U.S., economic cycles, consumer spending growth, labor market reality, inflation cycle, business and consumer confidence, Fed policiesReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIFri, 18 Mar 2022 15:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-u-s-economic-growth-fed-policy-inflation-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-u-s-economic-growth-fed-policy-inflation-cycleECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna of MacroVoices to discuss:- Upcoming policy mistake- Inflation risks – what is the issue with inflation?- Tightening monetary policy in this current environment- Window of economic vulnerability- ESG and energy costs amidst the war cycle backdrop- Outlook on equities and bonds- Rise of commodities and what’s going on with gold  D...ECRIMon, 14 Mar 2022 12:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-economic-cycles-and-earningshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-economic-cycles-and-earningsKeywords:U.S., leading indexes, S&P 500 earnings, economic cycles, Fed policiesReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 09 Mar 2022 14:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-japanese-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-japanese-cyclical-outlookKeywords:Japan, economic growth, inflation cycle, consumer spending, demographics, Bank of JapanReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 02 Mar 2022 15:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-chinese-russian-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-chinese-russian-cyclical-outlookKeywords:China, housing market, Russia, economic growth, central bank policy, Eurozone, inflation cycleReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIFri, 25 Feb 2022 14:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-goods-and-services-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-goods-and-services-growth-outlookKeywords:U.S., goods sector, services sector, market risks, inflation cycle, Fed policyReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIFri, 18 Feb 2022 14:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-inflation-cycle-wage-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-inflation-cycle-wage-growthKeywords:U.S., inflation cycle, wage growth, the Fed, Phillips CurveReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 09 Feb 2022 14:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-from-gung-ho-to-the-r-wordhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-from-gung-ho-to-the-r-wordECRI's Lakshman Achuthan summarizes recent events and shares updates for economic growth, employment and the Fed.Our process is designed to place decision-makers ahead of the curves in inflation and economic growth, regardless of the salient narrative dominating the headlines.  Understanding cycle shifts allows ECRI clients to prepare for risks of stock price corrections and the likelihood of a...ECRITue, 08 Feb 2022 15:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-international-home-price-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-international-home-price-growth-outlookKeywords:Global home price growth, international inflation, Chinese consumer spending, international housing marketReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 02 Feb 2022 14:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-inflation-prospects-chinese-outlook-fed-s-next-movehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-inflation-prospects-chinese-outlook-fed-s-next-moveKeywords:Global inflation, China, global economic growth, industrial growth, central bank policyReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIThu, 27 Jan 2022 15:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-manufacturing-inflation-cycle-updateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-manufacturing-inflation-cycle-updatesKeywords:Economic growth, inflation, manufacturing, Fed policy, the stock market, home price inflationReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIThu, 20 Jan 2022 14:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-deglobilization-exports-and-fragilityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-deglobilization-exports-and-fragilityKeywords:Global trade, supply chain fragility, exports growth, deglobilization, the pandemicReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 12 Jan 2022 14:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-on-inflation-the-fed-recession-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-on-inflation-the-fed-recession-risksECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Alison Kosik on CNN's Markets Now to discuss the U.S. growth rate cycle slowdown, recession risk, inflation, jobs and the Fed.Watch full CNN's Markets Now interview here.Watch the full replay of our interview with @AlisonKosik discussing U.S. recession risk, the Fed, and inflation with on @CNN Markets Now. https://t.co/Zfh9aaWXSM— Lakshman Achuthan January 5, 202...ECRIThu, 06 Jan 2022 09:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-navigating-tail-risk-over-the-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-navigating-tail-risk-over-the-cycleKeywords:U.S. economy, cycle risk management, growth rate cycle, markets, frameworkReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 05 Jan 2022 15:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-markets-now-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-markets-now-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNN's Markets Now, tomorrow, January 5 at 12:45PM ET.ECRIWed, 05 Jan 2022 11:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-inflation-manufacturing-business-investment-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-inflation-manufacturing-business-investment-outlookKeywords:Inflation cycle, manufacturing, business investment, economic growth, Fed policyReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIMon, 20 Dec 2021 15:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-closing-bell-interview-fed-risks-policy-mistakehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-closing-bell-interview-fed-risks-policy-mistakeIt’s clear that after Thanksgiving – having insisted for far too long that the rise in inflation was “transitory” – the Fed finally realized its mistake. It’s way behind the curve on inflation, which turned up over a year ago, and is scrambling to catch up while trying to put a positive spin on it. On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams said that that the economy next year looks “very ...ECRISat, 18 Dec 2021 07:44:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-5ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell, today at 4:25PM ET.ECRIFri, 17 Dec 2021 15:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-cyclical-risk-in-int-l-bond-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-cyclical-risk-in-int-l-bond-marketsKeywords:International financial markets, global inflation cycle, policymakers, global growth rate cycle, bond yields, GDP growth in key marketsReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.ECRIWed, 15 Dec 2021 13:58:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-inflation-and-consumer-spending-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-inflation-and-consumer-spending-updateECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss inflation and consumer spending."We're having some wage inflation," Economic Cycle Research Institute Co-Founder @BusinessCycle says. "That's a good thing. It's just not keeping pace with overall inflation... That's why people on Main Street don't feel great." https://t.co/Jb7k9tf4PH pic.twitter.com/5YiN8aiHO9— Yahoo Finance December 10, ...ECRIFri, 10 Dec 2021 12:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-u-s-service-sector-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-u-s-service-sector-outlookKeywords:U.S., nonfinancial service sector, financial service sector, non-manufacturing employment growth, wage inflation, consumer spending growthReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 08 Dec 2021 14:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-us-jobs-employmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-us-jobs-employmentDespite expectations of a Q4 rebound, jobs growth continues its clear downtrend.ECRIFri, 03 Dec 2021 09:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-growth-rate-cycles-stock-prices-dow-russellhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-growth-rate-cycles-stock-prices-dow-russellSlowdowns in economic growth see a flattening in the Dow – and even more so in the Russell 2000 – punctuated by sharp spikes down.We're now focused on determining when the shaded area will end.Here's how we do it.ECRIThu, 02 Dec 2021 09:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-int-l-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-int-l-growth-prospectsKeywords:Global economic growth, industrial growth, velocity of money, international inflation cycles, central banksReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRITue, 30 Nov 2021 16:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-us-global-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-us-global-inflationAs we approach year-end there’s been a lot of interest in our thoughts around a reacceleration in growth out of Q3, and prospects for inflation.We’re spending a good amount of time with our clients on this, and I can say that, true to form, around cycle turning points our views diverge from the consensus.A couple of weeks back we touched on our work on China’s cycles, but today I want to focus ...ECRIWed, 24 Nov 2021 19:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-growth-inflation-employment-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-growth-inflation-employment-outlooksKeywords:U.S., economic growth, inflation, job growth, policymakers, cyclical and structural developmentsReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIThu, 18 Nov 2021 16:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-consumer-spending-cools-offhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-consumer-spending-cools-offIn sharp contrast to the prevailing optimism, ECRI analysis shows consumer spending is in a cyclical slowdown that will weigh on holiday sales. This chart shows real consumer spending growth for both goods and services.You can see how spending on both goods and services soared last spring on the back of stimulus checks. Even adjusted for inflation, growth in goods spending was up almost 40% yea...ECRIThu, 18 Nov 2021 09:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-contrarian-call-suggests-consumers-are-in-trouble-this-holiday-seasonhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-contrarian-call-suggests-consumers-are-in-trouble-this-holiday-seasonIt may be evidence inflation is meaningfully stretching budgets.According to economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan, Wall Street is ignoring a striking consumer spending slowdown that will translate into an underwhelming holiday season.“There’s still this narrative that the rebound is there,” the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. “The hope ha...ECRIWed, 17 Nov 2021 19:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-spotlight-on-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-spotlight-on-chinaKeywords:China, export growth, industrial production, inflation, home price, policymakers, economic growthReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 10 Nov 2021 17:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-china-growth-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-china-growth-inflationECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares an update in relation to recent events in Chinese growth and inflation, including details on housing.ECRITue, 09 Nov 2021 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-u-s-consumer-spending-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-u-s-consumer-spending-outlookKeywords:Consumer spending, psychology of spending, supply chain, economyReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 03 Nov 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-industrial-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-industrial-inflation-outlookKeywords:Global supply chains, global leading indexes, emerging market trade, Eurozone, inflation, central banks, international policy riskReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 27 Oct 2021 16:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-manufacturing-inflation-employment-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-manufacturing-inflation-employment-outlooksKeywords:U.S., manufacturing, economic growth, inflation, employment, the Fed, industrial growth, supply chain shortagesReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 20 Oct 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-s-framework-for-proactive-decision-makinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-s-framework-for-proactive-decision-makingThe information that most everyone watches to get a read on the economy has very limited predictive value. You can do a lot better.Register and immediately watch ECRI’s Framework for Proactive Decision MakingConsensus views of economic prospects are captive to popular narratives – think pandemic, supply chains and even politics. Those narratives evolve reactively to fit changing facts on the gr...ECRITue, 19 Oct 2021 11:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-cyclical-forces-and-the-australian-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-cyclical-forces-and-the-australian-economyKeywords:Australia, economic growth, inflation, home price growth, China, New Zealand, RBAReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 13 Oct 2021 14:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-job-growth-employment-cycle-slowdown-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-job-growth-employment-cycle-slowdown-callDespite optimism around reopening, job growth has eased in line with our earlier employment cycle slowdown call.ECRIFri, 08 Oct 2021 09:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-home-price-construction-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-home-price-construction-outlookKeywords:Builders, construction, urban, suburban, home pricesReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 06 Oct 2021 16:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-outlook-for-major-economieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-outlook-for-major-economiesKeywords:U.S., China, Eurozone, world trade, bullwhip effect, debt growth, central bankReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 29 Sep 2021 15:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-inflation-cycle-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-inflation-cycle-updateKeywords:U.S., inflation cycle, jobs market, economic growth prospects, the FedReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 22 Sep 2021 14:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-downturn-in-the-global-industrial-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-downturn-in-the-global-industrial-economyOne economic forecaster predicted a slowdown in global industrial activity earlier this summer.Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, says the currency markets are now confirming his call.“We made that earlier global Industrial downturn call, and that meant that you were going to see this slowdown in industrial materials price inflation, industrial commodity pri...ECRIFri, 17 Sep 2021 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up while its growth rate edged down.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Cooling commodity currencies https://t.co/HxNnTtnuq0— Lakshman Achuthan September...ECRIFri, 17 Sep 2021 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-cooling-commodity-currencieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-cooling-commodity-currenciesOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shared on CNBC Trading Nation our latest public update regarding our earlier global industrial slowdown call and why it would result in falling industrial commodity price inflation.Cooling commodity currencies https://t.co/HxNnTtnuq0— Lakshman Achuthan September 16, 2021ECRIFri, 17 Sep 2021 09:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-interview-what-would-lee-iacocca-dohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-interview-what-would-lee-iacocca-doFollowing supply chain disruptions, major consulting firms are recommending that companies should become more tactically agile in general, and more nimble with respect to supply chain management in particular. We have a different perspective.While organizational agility can be valuable when there are unexpected disruptions, meaning true Black Swan events, developing that capability comes with s...ECRIWed, 15 Sep 2021 14:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-slowdown-dead-aheadhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-slowdown-dead-aheadRaoul Pal of Real Vision sits down with ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan for a deep dive into where we are now in the business cycle and what it means for our investments."The market is manic depressive..."In the second episode of @RaoulGMI: The Journey Man, he sits down with @businesscycle for a deep dive into where we are now in the business cycle & what it means for our investments.??Slowdown, Dead ...ECRIFri, 10 Sep 2021 11:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased while its growth rate slipped.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:"The market is manic depressive..."In the second episode of @RaoulGMI: The Journey M...ECRIFri, 10 Sep 2021 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-managing-equity-market-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-managing-equity-market-riskWhen managing equity market risk, it’s important to understand that major corrections are linked to cyclical downturns in economic growth.Watch Full Webinar RecordingECRIThu, 09 Sep 2021 10:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-eurozone-growth-and-inflation-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-eurozone-growth-and-inflation-outlooksKeywords:Eurozone, economic growth prospects, Germany, manufacturing, exports, inflation, ECBReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 08 Sep 2021 16:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-monitor-cycles-manage-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-monitor-cycles-manage-riskThe way you monitor cycles is central to managing risk. Watch our webinar about our U.S. slowdown call, including lots of Q&A.Watch Full Webinar RecordingECRITue, 07 Sep 2021 11:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-dynamic-of-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-dynamic-of-recoveryBased on our cyclical framework, we know what happens following recovery from deep recessions.Watch Full Webinar RecordingECRIFri, 03 Sep 2021 10:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up while its growth rate declined.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Based on our cyclical framework, we know what happens following recovery from deep r...ECRIFri, 03 Sep 2021 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-growth-cycle-downturn-call-webinarhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-growth-cycle-downturn-call-webinarWatch ECRI’s webinar about its U.S. growth rate cycle downturn call, including Q&A.Watch Webinar RecordingDuring this presentation we touch upon one of the most important reasons why the way you monitor cycles in economic growth is central to managing risk. If you’re only fixated on recessions, then you’re missing a huge opportunity to improve your performance. You can do a lot better by proper...ECRIFri, 03 Sep 2021 08:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-interviewECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan sat down with Raoul Pal of Real Vision to discuss:- Chinese Cycles, Emerging Markets, and Global Economic Slowdown- Risk of Market Corrections- Global Corporations May Be Reacting to Recent Events the Wrong WayWatch the full interview here"The market is manic depressive..."In the second episode of @RaoulGMI: The Journey Man, he sits down with @businesscycle for a deep d...ECRIThu, 02 Sep 2021 11:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-cycles-and-stock-price-volatilityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-cycles-and-stock-price-volatilityKeywords:S&P 500, stock prices, economic cycle, equity risk premium, volatility, valuationReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 01 Sep 2021 15:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased while its growth rate dropped.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Don't risk missing the forest for the trees...Direct download of our 2021 Minsky Con...ECRIFri, 27 Aug 2021 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-int-l-industrial-commodity-price-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-int-l-industrial-commodity-price-outlooksKeywords:International inflation, industrial commodity price, currencies, commodity exporters, central banks Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIThu, 26 Aug 2021 21:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-markets-now-interview-on-growth-inflation-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-markets-now-interview-on-growth-inflation-and-the-fedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins CNN's Markets Now with Alison Kosik.Watch full CNN Business Markets Now interview here.Topics included: - U.S. growth slowdown including jobs data- The Fed and taper timeline- Inflation concerns- Stock market riskMissed the live hit on @CNN Markets Now? Watch the full replay here: https://t.co/fLpjb8VBVv— Lakshman Achuthan August 18, 2021ECRIFri, 20 Aug 2021 16:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased while its growth rate fell further.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:The global industrial slowdown is beginning to bite. https://t.co/o5IKb7Obva— L...ECRIFri, 20 Aug 2021 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-consumer-spending-inflation-and-employment-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-consumer-spending-inflation-and-employment-outlookKeywords:U.S. economic growth, inflation cycle, employment, inventory cycle, policymakers tapering, tightening plansReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIThu, 19 Aug 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-inflation-economic-growth-global-industrial-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-inflation-economic-growth-global-industrial-growthECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna of MacroVoices to discuss:- Will there be disinflation before secular inflation?- Global Manufacturing PMI & Industrial Growth cycles- Post GFC – when does national debt becomes problematic?- Commodities – what to expect cyclically- Outlook on precious metals- Does the downturn in economic cycle call for recession?Download accomp...ECRIFri, 13 Aug 2021 10:38:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallsECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell while its growth rate dropped.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend and @PatrickCeresna welcome @businesscycle to the show to disc...ECRIFri, 13 Aug 2021 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-economic-growth-and-inflation-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-economic-growth-and-inflation-prospectsKeywords:United States, manufacturing PMIs, inflation expectations, employment, monetary policy, economic growthReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 11 Aug 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down while its growth rate fell.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Those without a high school diploma are leading the jobs recovery. pic.twitter.com/h8...ECRIFri, 06 Aug 2021 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-industrial-synchronizationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-industrial-synchronizationKeywords:Covid recession, global industrial growth, business cycle, recovery, China, United States, global economyReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 04 Aug 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-cnn-business-the-us-economic-recovery-has-been-record-breaking-don-t-get-used-to-ithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-cnn-business-the-us-economic-recovery-has-been-record-breaking-don-t-get-used-to-itDespite the continued optimism about the country reopening, US economic growth is already starting to slow.  Yes, year-over-year comparisons to the catastrophic conditions in the spring of 2020 have been puffing up recent economic growth data. But it's important to understand that there's much more to the story from an economic cycle perspective. That's our conclusion not only from the data we ...ECRIWed, 04 Aug 2021 11:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/url-business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/url-business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down as its growth rate decreased.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Our recent webinar looks at the industrial sector of the economy, and at commodity p...ECRIFri, 30 Jul 2021 10:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-int-l-inflation-global-industrial-growth-post-covid-reboundhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-int-l-inflation-global-industrial-growth-post-covid-reboundKeywords:global industrial growth, China, emerging markets, international inflation cycles, central banks.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 28 Jul 2021 17:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-us-coincident-indexhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-us-coincident-indexThe growth rate of ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index was 19.7% in March 2021 and has declined to 4.9% in June.                ECRIFri, 23 Jul 2021 16:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-dropsECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index dropped while its growth rate slowed.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Have you watched this yet? https://t.co/C8OOwgB3lq pic.twitter.com/cwxKbUV1r2— Lakshman...ECRIFri, 23 Jul 2021 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-service-sector-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-service-sector-prospectsKeywords:U.S. service sector, consumer spending, stock price volatility, market risk, inflation cycle.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 21 Jul 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-the-beginning-of-a-broader-downturn-for-commoditieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-the-beginning-of-a-broader-downturn-for-commoditiesThe commodity market has been red hot this year, but the tide appears to be turning.Lumber, for example, has seen one of the most jaw-dropping moves in the space. At its peak in May, it was up more than 90% for the year. It has since reversed and is now down nearly 30% for 2021.This is just the beginning of a broader downturn for commodities, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Ec...ECRIFri, 16 Jul 2021 12:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-indexes-services-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-global-industrial-call-webinar-pmihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-indexes-services-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-global-industrial-call-webinar-pmiWatch ECRI’s webinar about its global industrial slowdown call, including Q&A.Here’s something that’s not very well known: the PMIs that most everyone watches to get a read on economic growth don’t have much predictive value. You can do a lot better.Watch here.ECRIFri, 16 Jul 2021 11:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased while its growth rate decreased.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:"While I know — lumber notwithstanding — people are still pretty bullish on commod...ECRIFri, 16 Jul 2021 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-public-update-on-global-industrial-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-public-update-on-global-industrial-growth-outlookOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shared our latest public update on global industrial growth and commodity price inflation on CNBC.Our latest public comments on global industrial growth and commodity price inflation with @seemacnbc: https://t.co/G0cgq8qr8c— Lakshman Achuthan July 14, 2021ECRIThu, 15 Jul 2021 11:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-jobs-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-jobs-growth-outlookKeywords:U.S. jobs growth, leading employment indexes, labor costs, the Fed, unemployment rate, inflation.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 14 Jul 2021 17:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-longer-leads-are-criticalhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-longer-leads-are-criticalOur Weekly Leading Index is a pretty good index, but on its own it’s insufficient for managing risk the way that we know it can be managed based on the entire array of leading indexes we monitor. For example, in this day and age of information technology, consider the decision about when to build huge multibillion dollar chip fabs. They don’t want to go on stream at the start of a down cycle, o...ECRIFri, 09 Jul 2021 12:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up while its growth rate dropped.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:The revival in employment is speeding up. Compared to the Great Recession, the perce...ECRIFri, 09 Jul 2021 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-japanese-growth-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-japanese-growth-and-inflation-outlookKeywords:Inflation cycle, economic cycle, Japanese leading indexes, Olympics, exports, Bank of Japan.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 07 Jul 2021 15:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-jobs-revival-strengthenshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-jobs-revival-strengthensThe revival in employment is speeding up. Compared to the Great Recession, the percent decline is now less than it was 16 months after its peak.ECRIFri, 02 Jul 2021 10:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up as its growth rate fell.Read why longer leads are critical.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:The revival in employment is speeding up. Compared to the Great Recession, the percent decl...ECRIFri, 02 Jul 2021 10:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-growth-and-inflation-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-growth-and-inflation-prospectsKeywords:International inflation, global economic growth, international leading indexes, emerging markets, Chinese outlook, global central banks.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIFri, 25 Jun 2021 18:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged as its growth rate decreased.Read why longer leads are critical.                 ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:Great discussion with Raoul and Roger today about cycl...ECRIFri, 25 Jun 2021 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased as its growth rate fell.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see below for public statements ECRI has made abo...ECRIFri, 18 Jun 2021 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-growth-market-risk-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-u-s-growth-market-risk-and-inflation-outlookKeywords:U.S., inflation outlook, economic growth outlook, leading indexes, consumer spending, market risk, the Fed, employment.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIThu, 17 Jun 2021 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-flashback-may-2020-industrial-revival-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-flashback-may-2020-industrial-revival-callOver a year ago we made a prescient global industrial upturn call and that never wavered.In April 2021 ECRI’s Achuthan updated our outlook for the global industrial cycle and commodity price inflation, which was again at odds with the consensus. Watch that interview here.ECRIFri, 11 Jun 2021 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 158.7 as its growth rate fell below 21%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see below for public statement...ECRIFri, 11 Jun 2021 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-chinese-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-chinese-cyclical-outlookKeywords:China inflation, economic growth, prompt leading index, export, home price, demographics, PBOC.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 09 Jun 2021 09:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-jobs-revival-picking-up-pacehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-jobs-revival-picking-up-paceThe jobs revival picked up a bit of pace in May, and is closing in on the trajectory seen following the Great Recession.ECRIFri, 04 Jun 2021 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-employment-population-ratio-differenceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-employment-population-ratio-differencesThe employment/population ratio has turned back down for those without a high school diploma, but continues to recover for those with at least a high school diploma.ECRIFri, 04 Jun 2021 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 158.2. The growth rate decreased to below 22%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see below for public state...ECRIFri, 04 Jun 2021 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-how-do-i-manage-risk-how-does-the-business-cycle-work-how-do-i-generate-investment-ideas-how-do-options-workhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-how-do-i-manage-risk-how-does-the-business-cycle-work-how-do-i-generate-investment-ideas-how-do-options-workOn May 23, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Real Vision's Festival of Learning.Learn more and register here.ECRIFri, 04 Jun 2021 09:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-framework-of-market-risk-leading-indexhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-framework-of-market-risk-leading-indexKeywords:Stock market correction, volatility, VIX, growth rate cycle, inflation cycle, leading indexes, growth outlook, inflation outlook.Review ECRI's current real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 02 Jun 2021 16:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-8ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 159.5, a record high. The growth rate edged down to 23.5%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see below fo...ECRIFri, 28 May 2021 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-industrial-growth-shifts-gearhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-global-industrial-growth-shifts-gearIn the context of our array of global industrial growth leading indexes, industrial commodity price inflation is on the cusp of a cyclical shift. Separately, the outlook for international has also evolved.Included in this report:- Updated data relevant to industrial commodity prices - Analysis of the global industrial cycle with a chart of ECRI's sequential indexes for global industrial growth-...ECRIWed, 26 May 2021 14:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchanged-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchanged-1Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at 159.1. The growth rate fell to 23.8%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 21 May 2021 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-growth-and-inflation-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-updated-growth-and-inflation-outlooksWe have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth and inflation. Included in this report:- Fresh look at our sequential leading indexes of U.S. economic growth- Cyclical analysis of inventories through the supply chain- Comments on manufacturing ...ECRIWed, 19 May 2021 14:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-minsky-conference-presentation-the-fed-forgets-the-fig-makes-a-virtue-of-necessityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-minsky-conference-presentation-the-fed-forgets-the-fig-makes-a-virtue-of-necessityContact us for a copy of the deck with notes.There is a wide divide between those who have serious concerns about a run up in inflation and those who are more comfortable about where inflation is headed – including Jay Powell.The Fed’s more relaxed attitude is rooted in its new monetary framework, featuring an “outcome-based” approach rather than the earlier “forecast-based” approach. The evolu...ECRIMon, 17 May 2021 15:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-further-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-further-1Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose further to 159.2, a record high. The growth rate decreased to 24.4%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and grow...ECRIFri, 14 May 2021 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-variety-article-bad-for-business-wild-media-sector-swings-point-to-overheated-equities-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-variety-article-bad-for-business-wild-media-sector-swings-point-to-overheated-equities-marketThere’s no better moment to take the pulse of the investment landscape than during the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the $700 billion holding company headed by legendary investor Warren Buffett....Despite how frothy the broader market would appear, it’s important to note that the S&P 500 has not only rebounded from the massive hit it took a year ago when the pandemic struck...ECRIFri, 14 May 2021 09:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-korean-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-korean-cyclical-outlookKorea’s recovery from the Covid-crisis is evolving, both cyclically and structurally.Included in this report:- Korea’s cyclical outlook featuring our Korean Leading Manufacturing Index- Analysis of Korean export growth prospects - Structural shifts in Korea’s manufacturing sector- Nuances of Korea and China's trade relationship- Global industrial growth's effect on Korea's economic growthReview...ECRIWed, 12 May 2021 14:12:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-inflation-watch-why-the-fed-is-paying-close-attention-to-this-charthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-inflation-watch-why-the-fed-is-paying-close-attention-to-this-chartThe Federal Reserve is closely watching inflation expectations, and investors ought to, too.Lakshman Achuthan, an economic forecaster and co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, highlighted one chart that the Fed is keeping an eye on for where inflation and rates could head next.“Ten-year breakeven inflation expectations, that’s the bottom line, that’s risen to around 2.5% and that...ECRIFri, 07 May 2021 13:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-updated-inflation-cycle-viewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-updated-inflation-cycle-viewOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC's Trading Nation yesterday to discuss our research on inflation expectations, featuring our U.S. Future Inflation Gauge chart, and the Fed's framework shift.Our latest take on inflation as inflation expectations hit a fresh eight-year high. Watch our interview with @seemacnbc here: https://t.co/HuGhPYbGkC— Lakshm...ECRIFri, 07 May 2021 12:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-19http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-19Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 158.7, a record high. The growth rate increased to 24.8%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 07 May 2021 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-future-inflation-gauge-navigates-inflation-dividehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-future-inflation-gauge-navigates-inflation-divideLacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months.Included in this report:- U.S. inflation outlook spotlighting ECRI’s weekly U.S. Future Inflation Gauge- Historical look at monetary and fiscal stimulus, and inflation- Analysis of...ECRIWed, 05 May 2021 14:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-29th-annual-hyman-p-minsky-conference-on-the-state-of-the-us-and-world-economieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-29th-annual-hyman-p-minsky-conference-on-the-state-of-the-us-and-world-economiesOn May 5, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will present at 1:00PM at the Levy Institute's 29th Annual Minsky Conference.Learn more and register for the conference here.For insights into the upcoming presentation please read Lakshman's presentation, Probing Powell's Patience, from the 2019 Levy Institute's Minsky Conference.ECRIWed, 05 May 2021 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forbes-from-lumber-to-tips-to-bitcoin-12-inflation-hedging-investment-moveshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forbes-from-lumber-to-tips-to-bitcoin-12-inflation-hedging-investment-movesIn the past year:—house prices have gone up 12%.—lumber prices have tripled.—shares of mediocre companies like The New York Times, American Water Works and Duke Energy have climbed to 40 times trailing earnings or more.Dollars, it seems, aren’t going as far as they used to in the acquisition of hard assets, real estate or business assets. This is not surprising, given how many of those dollars ...ECRIMon, 03 May 2021 09:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-23http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-23ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 157.0, a record high. The growth rate slipped further to 23.9%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see bel...ECRIFri, 30 Apr 2021 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-public-comments-on-global-industrial-growth-and-commodity-price-inflation-cycleshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-public-comments-on-global-industrial-growth-and-commodity-price-inflation-cyclesOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN Bloomberg updating our public comments on global industrial growth and commodity price inflation cycles.ECRIThu, 29 Apr 2021 16:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bnn-bloomberg-tv-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bnn-bloomberg-tv-interview-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on BNN Bloombergs' Commodities tomorrow, April 29 at 11:20AM ET.ECRIThu, 29 Apr 2021 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-alt-allocations-podcast-interview-trees-don-t-grow-to-the-sky-cycles-will-always-turnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-alt-allocations-podcast-interview-trees-don-t-grow-to-the-sky-cycles-will-always-turnECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Ben Lakoff on The Alt Asset Allocation Podcast on January 14, 2021. The discussion included ECRI methodology, the outlook, Covid recession/recovery, risk on/off signals and more. Please see interview breakdown with time codes below:0:00:00: Welcome and context0:01:47: What is your background?0:08:36: How do you look at the current economic situation?0:17:05: Wher...ECRIThu, 29 Apr 2021 08:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-outlook-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-outlook-1New developments on the international inflation cycle front warrant attention, amid the global recovery from the recession. Our international leading indexes and future inflation gauges help sift through global cyclical crosscurrents.Included in this report:- Updated global inflation outlook referencing the 11-Country Future Inflation Gauge- Analysis of Chinese inflation pressures including an ...ECRITue, 27 Apr 2021 14:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-furtherClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose further to 157.1, a record high. The growth rate slipped to 24.3%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth...ECRIFri, 23 Apr 2021 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-inflation-employment-and-growth-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-inflation-employment-and-growth-outlooksOur research shows that cyclical inflation, employment and economic growth prospects are all in-flux.Included in this report:- Updated U.S. Alternative Future Inflation Gauge- Nuances of CPI and what’s next for inflation- Employment growth update- Near-term growth outlook through a sector specific lens- Longer-term growth rate cycle prospectsReview ECRI's current real-time track record.For info...ECRIMon, 19 Apr 2021 14:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-18http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-18Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 156.1, a record high. The growth rate increased to 25.0%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 16 Apr 2021 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-industrial-outlook-and-commodity-currencieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-industrial-outlook-and-commodity-currenciesToday's analysis explores the relationship between commodity currencies and commodity price inflation. Included in this report:- Outlook for commodity price inflation with a fresh look at ECRI’s Industrial Price Index- Short and longer-term analysis for global industrial growth prospects- Insights into the relationship between commodity currencies and commodity price inflationReview ECRI's curr...ECRIWed, 14 Apr 2021 14:12:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-3Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 153.6. The growth rate ticked down to 25.1%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle c...ECRIFri, 09 Apr 2021 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-consumer-spending-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-consumer-spending-outlookConsumer spending growth is a key component of the economic recovery and the inflation outlook. Our targeted forward-looking indexes provide a clear look ahead for consumer spending growth, and separately for inflation.Included in this report:- Updated look at ECRI’s U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending- Analysis of services vs. goods spending- The impact of stimulus checks on inflation- Shi...ECRIWed, 07 Apr 2021 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-cnn-business-biden-boom-teed-up-under-trumphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-cnn-business-biden-boom-teed-up-under-trumpPresidents typically get too much credit -- or blame -- for the US economy's current performance, while the unseen drivers of the economic cycle get way too little. The economy is like a supertanker -- it generally takes time for it to change direction. But sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, policymakers will take credit for a cyclical shift that was a year or more in the making. Of course, pr...ECRIMon, 05 Apr 2021 13:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/cycle-dynamics-in-recovery-from-covid-crisishttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/cycle-dynamics-in-recovery-from-covid-crisisIn early 2020, cascading closures triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic forced the economy into recession. Our timely cyclical insights, derived from ECRI’s proprietary leading indexes – with critical implications for key asset classes including stocks, bonds and commodities – helped our clients navigate the recovery.These leading indexes provided accurate, objective and unwavering guidance on cyc...ECRIFri, 02 Apr 2021 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-13http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-13Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 153.8. The growth rate rose further to 25.5%, a 595-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and gr...ECRIFri, 02 Apr 2021 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-global-industrial-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-global-industrial-growth-outlookJust a year after the Covid lockdowns began in most countries, global industrial growth prospects are shifting. Meanwhile, a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics requires that we keep a close eye on our targeted leading indexes for directional indications.Included in this report:- Analysis of the global industrial growth outlook, featuring our Global Industrial Growth Long Leading In...ECRIFri, 26 Mar 2021 14:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-moves-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-moves-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index moved up to 155.4, a record high. The growth rate rose to 26.2%, 594-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see ...ECRIFri, 26 Mar 2021 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-rises-1Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 153.4, a record high. The growth rate increased to 25.6%, a 593-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle...ECRIFri, 19 Mar 2021 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-outlooks-for-u-s-manufacturing-growth-and-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-outlooks-for-u-s-manufacturing-growth-and-inflationIs the glittering manufacturing growth outlook we predicted back in 2020 beginning to lose its luster? Our targeted leading indexes reveal what comes next.Included in this report:- Updated U.S. Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs- A look into the U.S. service sector recovery- Overall U.S. growth outlook sharing a chart of our sequential leading indexes- Details on inflation upturn, with a revie...ECRIThu, 18 Mar 2021 14:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-increases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-increases-2Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 153.1. The growth rate rose to 24.4%, a 591-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 12 Mar 2021 10:17:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-inflation-cycle-10-year-yieldshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-inflation-cycle-10-year-yieldsOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discussed on CNBC's Trading Nation yesterday our work on the inflation cycle and how it is key to understanding where treasury yields are headed.The chart shows 10-year treasury yields over the last five years, with the up and down arrows marking the timing of ECRI's inflation cycle calls.But isn't the rise in inflation like...ECRIThu, 11 Mar 2021 12:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-treasury-yield-trend-suggests-no-relief-from-higher-rates-backs-up-inflation-jittershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-treasury-yield-trend-suggests-no-relief-from-higher-rates-backs-up-inflation-jittersEven though the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield touched a one-week low on Wednesday, economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan believes the path forward is higher.According to Achuthan’s proprietary data, the U.S. is already in the grip of inflation.“It is not transitory. It’s cyclical,” the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. “The underlyin...ECRIThu, 11 Mar 2021 10:11:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-russian-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-russian-cyclical-outlookThe Russian economic outlook has shifted, at least for the near term. Included in this report:- Russia outlook in the context of global industrial growth- A cyclical look at Russia's exports to its major trading partners- Latest insights from the Russian Leading Industrial Production Index - Russian inflation outlook from ECRI's Russian Alternative Future Inflation GaugeReview ECRI's current re...ECRIWed, 10 Mar 2021 14:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-decreases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-decreases-2Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 151.8. The growth rate increased further to 22.9%, a 585-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle a...ECRIFri, 05 Mar 2021 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-inflation-cycle-view-provides-clarityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-inflation-cycle-view-provides-clarityTo see how ECRI’s guidance on inflation cycles has helped our clients navigate fixed income markets in recent years, recall the timing of our inflation cycle upturn and downturn calls, and contrast that with how the markets and the Fed behaved.Here are 10-year treasury yields over the last five years, with the up and down arrows pinpointing the timing of ECRI’s inflation cycle upturn and downtu...ECRIFri, 05 Mar 2021 08:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cycles-in-stock-price-volatilityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cycles-in-stock-price-volatilityECRI takes a “many cycles” approach to monitoring the global economy, employing a formidable array of leading indexes across countries and various sectors and aspects of the economy. The maturation of volatility as an asset class has added another market where monitoring cycle risk can improve decision making.Included in this report:- Stock price volatility outlook featuring our U.S. Leading St...ECRIWed, 03 Mar 2021 14:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-emerging-market-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-emerging-market-inflation-outlookCyclical swings in economic growth and inflation can persuade many that sustainable structural shifts are upon us. As we have seen in past cycles, therein lies the opportunity for the clear-eyed navigation, while others mistake the cyclical trees for the structural forest. Included in this report:- Analysis of the EM inflation outlook sharing the Emerging Markets Alternative Future Inflation Ga...ECRIFri, 26 Feb 2021 14:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-risesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 153.2, a record high. The growth rate increased to 22.1%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 26 Feb 2021 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-housing-commodity-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-housing-commodity-and-inflation-outlookOur cyclical framework continues to cut through the competing narratives around the housing and commodity markets, and also the rise in inflation expectations. Included in this report:- Home price inflation and construction activity- Fresh analysis of sensitive industrial material prices- How cycles in inflation interact with structural trends- Cross-currents in the growth outlook?Review ECRI's...ECRIFri, 19 Feb 2021 14:05:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-increases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-increases-1Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 149.4. The growth rate ticked down to 21.2%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle ch...ECRIFri, 19 Feb 2021 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-case-study-u-s-inflation-cyclical-insightshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-case-study-u-s-inflation-cyclical-insightsWhile our current inflation cycle upturn call, which began in the summer of 2020, continues to play out, it is instructive to understand what transpired during the 2016-17 inflation cycle upturn.Inflation cycle turning points typically surprise the markets. ECRI’s goal is to protect clients from being blindsided by inflation cycle turns, so that they can avoid pain, and also profit from them.Th...ECRITue, 16 Feb 2021 09:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-ticks-downClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 149.4. The growth rate rose to 22.1%, a 581-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 12 Feb 2021 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-nonresidential-construction-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-nonresidential-construction-growth-prospectsThe interaction between the continuing pandemic and nonresidential construction sector growth has been interesting, especially in light of the sector's cyclical characteristics. Our related forward-looking indexes provide a clear look ahead.Included in this report:- Analysis of fresh U.S. Leading and Coincident Nonresidential Construction Index data- A cyclical review of nonresidential investme...ECRIWed, 10 Feb 2021 14:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-decreases-1Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 150.2. The growth rate increased to 21.6%, a 578-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 05 Feb 2021 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-k-economic-growth-inflation-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-k-economic-growth-inflation-prospectsWith the recent U.K. lockdown slated to last until early March, there is concern about another deep recession. To help navigate cycle risk through a number of cyclical crosscurrents this report provides fresh data from our full suite of U.K. leading indexes.Included in this report:- Updated U.K. Quick Leading places Purchasing Managers Index in perspective- Analysis of the U.K. manufacturing an...ECRIWed, 03 Feb 2021 14:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-gamestop-and-market-volatilityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-gamestop-and-market-volatilityPowell did nothing to suggest a rate increase or even the beginning of a taper of bond purchases at this past week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He continued to insist the Fed will remain easy until it surpasses its targeted inflation rate and job growth has recovered. The subtext: The Fed is no longer relying on economic models to gauge when it should tighten monetary policy, but wi...ECRIMon, 01 Feb 2021 15:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-int-l-inflation-eurozone-growth-and-int-l-equity-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-int-l-inflation-eurozone-growth-and-int-l-equity-risksThis report provides updates to our array of international leading indexes.Included in this report:- Analysis of global inflation cycle dynamics including a look at the 11-Country Future Inflation Gauge- Spotlight on China's inflation outlook- An overall, and sector specific, look at Eurozone economic growth prospects- Recalling a fulcrum in recent history that reshaped the global economy, impa...ECRIFri, 29 Jan 2021 14:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-smooth-reflation-sailing-for-nowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-smooth-reflation-sailing-for-nowECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison on January 21, 2021 to share the outlook on economic growth, inflation, and markets. Achuthan charts his way through the next 12 months, pointing out how the bulk of ECRI indicators suggest that reflation is indeed, just as many foresee, here. Watch the long-form interview here.  Achuthan disaggregates “the reflation trade”...ECRIFri, 29 Jan 2021 10:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-downClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 150.1. The growth rate rose further to 19.0%, the highest since January 29 2010.                  ECRI has long determined bu...ECRIFri, 29 Jan 2021 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-etf-think-tank-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-etf-think-tank-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join ETF Think Tank, Thursday, January 28 at 5:00PM ET.Staring over the economic cliff can be intimidating. We discuss this and managing risk with our guest Lakshman Achuthan @businesscycle on Thursday, 1/28 at 5pm EST. Join us at https://t.co/46gQ1irfNC @leadlagreport @michael_venuto @ETFProfessor @DavidDziekanski pic.twitter.com/E23ebwR2E7— ETF Think Tank January...ECRIThu, 28 Jan 2021 16:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-manufacturing-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-manufacturing-and-the-fedWill inflation continue its cyclical upturn in the face of a widening pandemic? This report updates our full suite of U.S. leading indexes and helps us navigate what's next for inflation, and growth.Included in this report:- Inflation outlook featuring our U.S. Future Inflation Gauge - Updated analysis based on our U.S. Leading Manufacturing Index along with important insights around industrial...ECRIFri, 22 Jan 2021 14:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-what-is-the-risk-of-a-major-market-correctionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-what-is-the-risk-of-a-major-market-correctionOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discussed on CNBC's Trading Nation yesterday our research on risk of a major correction and how it is linked to economic cycles, specifically to growth rate cycle downturns.ECRI's chart shows how such corrections in the S&P are linked to growth downturns.Right now we continue to be in a cyclical upturn and more to the point,...ECRIFri, 22 Jan 2021 11:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-increasesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 150.4. The growth rate rose to 17.7%, a 571-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 22 Jan 2021 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-up-1Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 146.4. The growth rate ticked up to 16.3%, the highest reading since February 2010.                  ECRI has long determined b...ECRIFri, 15 Jan 2021 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-global-industrial-upturn-despite-continuing-covid-crisishttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-global-industrial-upturn-despite-continuing-covid-crisisThe business cycle may be the single most important determinant of investment and business performance. Below we share a walkthrough of our 2020 global industrial growth upturn call. Contact us here to inquire about working with ECRI.May 2020: with PMI’s barely off the floor after a complete collapse, our indicators of global industrial growth were already flagging an “Industrial Growth Revival...ECRIFri, 15 Jan 2021 09:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-risk-and-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-risk-and-marketsAs cyclical forces have played a key role in risk asset prices in 2020, economic cycles are becoming even more important for navigating risk asset shifts. Included in this report:- Fresh data from our U.S. Leading and Coincident Financial Services Indexes- The relationship between stock prices and the cycle- Industrial commodity price cycles- Analysis of our Financial Accommodation Index and go...ECRIWed, 13 Jan 2021 14:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-decreasesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 146.1. The growth rate increased to 16.1%, a 569-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 08 Jan 2021 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-chinese-growth-prospects-in-2021http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-chinese-growth-prospects-in-2021The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights.Included in this report:- Updates to Chinese Quick Leading and Coincident Index- Analysis of Chinese exports, highlighting industrial production and producer prices- Reviewing Chinese f...ECRIWed, 06 Jan 2021 15:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-what-investors-should-expect-from-2021-s-economic-climatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-what-investors-should-expect-from-2021-s-economic-climateEconomic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance Live to break down what the economic outlook for this year looks like as stocks sell off on the first day of trading of 2021..@businesscycle: "The story of this recovery has really been the manufacturing side... it's red-hot manufacturing goods trade." Also talks about where the U.S. economy is in the recovery process. h...ECRITue, 05 Jan 2021 09:47:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-2021-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-2021-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Yahoo Finance to discuss the outlook for 2021 including our recovery call, inflation and the forward looking data..@businesscycle: "The story of this recovery has really been the manufacturing side... it's red-hot manufacturing goods trade." Also talks about where the U.S. economy is in the recovery process. https://t.co/xpAujlCWBd pic.twitter.com/1mlv8E0JMk—...ECRIMon, 04 Jan 2021 16:53:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-market-closehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-market-closeECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's Market Close, today, January 4 at 3:00PM ET.ECRIMon, 04 Jan 2021 14:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-upClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 147.5. The growth rate rose to 15.2%, the highest reading since February 12, 2010.                  ECRI has long determined bus...ECRIThu, 31 Dec 2020 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-2021-look-ahead-forecast-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-2021-look-ahead-forecast-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss what's in store for 2021, following our 2020 reflation call.ECRIThu, 31 Dec 2020 09:36:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Surveillance on December 31 at 7:30AM ET. ECRIThu, 31 Dec 2020 06:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-manufacturing-prospects-client-reporthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-manufacturing-prospects-client-reportThis reports examines updates to ECRI's international outlook, noting the global surge in Covid cases' clash with the ongoing recovery in global economic growth. Included in this report:- Updated outlook for global growth and trade, with a look at ECRI's 21-Country Long Leading Index- Analysis of global industrial growth prospects, sharing key index sequences including the Global Industrial Gro...ECRITue, 29 Dec 2020 13:59:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-moves-up-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-moves-up-furtherClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index moved up further to 147.0. The growth rate increased to 14.5%.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIThu, 24 Dec 2020 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-u-s-manufacturing-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-u-s-manufacturing-outlookEven as Covid-19 infections scale new heights, the combination of classic cyclical dynamics and our leading index information provides conviction in our U.S. business cycle outlook. Included in this report:- Detailed analysis of the industrial outlook with an update of the U.S. Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs- A review of the classic cycle evolution through the eyes of the USLLI, USWLI, USS...ECRIFri, 18 Dec 2020 18:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-moves-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-moves-upClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index moved up to 145.8. The growth rate rose further to 13.1%, a 564-week high.                  ECRI has long determined business cycle and gro...ECRIFri, 18 Dec 2020 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-2020-track-record-covid-19-shortest-recession-global-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-2020-track-record-covid-19-shortest-recession-global-recoveryWhile the outlook for growth and inflation at the start of 2020 was positive, cascading closures due to Covid-19 tipped the economy into recession. That recession would be amongst the shortest on record. Internationally, the recoveries from the Covid recessions were not all created equal, with renewed signs of slowing ahead in some economies. See below for selections from our 2020 track record ...ECRIWed, 16 Dec 2020 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-12Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.2. The growth rate rose further to 12.1%, the highest since April 30, 2010.                  ECRI has long determined busi...ECRIFri, 11 Dec 2020 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-home-price-growth-rising-at-fastest-pace-since-early-2000shttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-home-price-growth-rising-at-fastest-pace-since-early-2000sOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Housing is doing something it hasn’t done since the bubble.According to economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan, home prices across the country are rising at the fastest pace since 2004. Plus, he finds price growth is at a record high.“This economy that has been really driven by stuff at home,” the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute t...ECRIThu, 10 Dec 2020 08:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-home-price-outlook-a-cyclical-view-of-stock-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-home-price-outlook-a-cyclical-view-of-stock-pricesContrary to the belief that macroeconomic considerations are now passé, cyclical insights are more relevant than ever for both the fixed income and equity markets.Included in this report:- Capitalized profits and stock prices in current cycle - Analysis of capitalized profits during earlier cycles- A fresh look at measures of equity valuation- Shifting volatility in stock and bond pricesReview ...ECRIWed, 09 Dec 2020 14:09:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-business-cycle-dynamics-point-the-way-higherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-business-cycle-dynamics-point-the-way-higherGood leading indexes are pointing to a continuation of the reflation trade. It would be wise to heed them, as they presciently flagged its onset well before the consensus caught on. A key reason we were able to have conviction in that contrarian view – laid out in our April 3 article – is that the "vicious" and "virtuous" cycles that define recession and recovery worked in textbook fashion duri...ECRIMon, 07 Dec 2020 11:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-22http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-22Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 145.9, as the growth rate rose to 11.0%, a 198-week high.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronol...ECRIFri, 04 Dec 2020 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-home-price-outlookOur international leading home price indexes provide a clear look-ahead regarding key country home price growth cycles. Included in this report:- A look at the updated Leading Home Price Indexes for major developed economies and China- Analysis of the wealth effect on economic activity- Mortgage rates and central bank actions- Analysis of urban vs. suburban housing marketsReview ECRI’s real-tim...ECRIWed, 02 Dec 2020 14:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-durability-of-short-recession-and-recovery-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-durability-of-short-recession-and-recovery-callListen to Investopedia's Caleb Silver interview ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan regarding the durability of our April "short recession" and recovery call.The latest episode of The Investopedia Express with @calebsilver just dropped, featuring @bethanymac12 on the private equity feast, and @businesscycle on the strength of the recovery. Plus, shoutouts to @BonJovi and @GeorgeMOfficial. You gotta have f...ECRITue, 01 Dec 2020 09:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-manufacturing-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-manufacturing-prospectsOur updated leading indexes inform the outlook for both global industrial growth prospects and the PMI data that markets watch closely.Included in this report:- Analysis of the Global PMIs with an update to the Global Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs- A review of trade with Asia and supply chains across the Pacific - Three Ps analysis of our latest Eurozone Quick Leading Index data - Contras...ECRIMon, 30 Nov 2020 15:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-advanceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-advancesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site._________________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 144.2, while the growth rate increased to 9.6%, a 194-week high.                   ECRI has long determined business cycle and grow...ECRIWed, 25 Nov 2020 10:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-17http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-17Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 143.8, while the growth rate increased to 8.6%, a 144-week high.                   ECRI has long determined business cycle and gro...ECRIFri, 20 Nov 2020 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-covid-19-surge-what-s-nexthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-covid-19-surge-what-s-nextThe cyclical underpinnings of this economic recovery have remained in line with our earlier expectations. This report explores the latest updates to our leading indexes in the context of the recent surge in Covid-19 infections.Included in this report:- Detailed analysis of the services and goods sector outlook- Updated analysis of overall U.S. growth and inflation prospects- Leading Indexes, ma...ECRIThu, 19 Nov 2020 14:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-economic-cycles-inflation-and-recovery-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-macrovoices-podcast-economic-cycles-inflation-and-recovery-updateECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna of MacroVoices to discuss:- All-time highs in the stock market despite the pandemic – what cycle does this reflect?- What cycle is driving the recovery?- How to manage cycle risks- What does USFIG suggest comes next?- When to expect secular inflation based on leading indicators- What cycles tell us about the recent upside in the ...ECRIFri, 13 Nov 2020 10:46:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-21http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-21Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 141.9, while the growth rate moved up to 7.4%, the highest since February 16, 2018.                   ECRI has long determine...ECRIFri, 13 Nov 2020 10:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-will-the-consumer-keep-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-will-the-consumer-keep-spendingContrary to the crosscurrents in consensus expectations, our work shows a clear direction for consumer spending growth heading into the holiday season.Included in this report: - A fresh look at where we are in the consumer spending cycle via ECRI's U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending- Updated home price growth outlook - Analysis of the sector-specific impact on businesses from the Covid cri...ECRIWed, 11 Nov 2020 14:17:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-5Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 141.2, while the growth rate rose further to 6.5%.                    ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 06 Nov 2020 10:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-election-uncertainty-leaves-us-economic-rescue-hanging-in-the-balancehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-election-uncertainty-leaves-us-economic-rescue-hanging-in-the-balanceAs Americans wait on the final results of the 2020 election, the outcome will have a big effect on the size and timing of any additional economic rescue package.As of Wednesday evening, with the presidential race still up in the air, Democrats looked likely to retain control of the House although with fewer seats. But it's still unclear which party will control the Senate. Democrats still may f...ECRIThu, 05 Nov 2020 10:31:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-outlook-for-global-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-outlook-for-global-exportsExport growth prospects have revived around the world, in line with our earlier global industrial growth upturn call. This report updates the outlook for export growth across the major economies, in light of developments on the geopolitical and globalization fronts.Included in this report: - Updated German and Chinese Leading Exports Indexes- Analysis of the Eurozone economies growth prospects ...ECRIWed, 04 Nov 2020 14:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-growth-advanceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-growth-advancesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index advanced to 141.7, while the growth rate rose to 5.3%, its highest reading since January.                    ECRI has long determined busi...ECRIFri, 30 Oct 2020 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-the-final-round-cyclical-recovery-and-the-u-s-consumerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-the-final-round-cyclical-recovery-and-the-u-s-consumerECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Yahoo Finance to discuss the state of the economy, our high-frequency leading indexes and the U.S. consumer.Highlight: Lower-income households "don't make up all that much of consumer spending... when compared to what the upper half of the households are consuming," @businesscycle says. "That's the lion's share of consumer spending." More: pic.twitter.com/mk8...ECRIWed, 28 Oct 2020 20:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-the-final-round-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-the-final-round-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's The Final Round, Wednesday, October 28 at 4:00PM ET.ECRIWed, 28 Oct 2020 15:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-eurozone-u-s-and-global-industrial-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-eurozone-u-s-and-global-industrial-growth-prospectsThe cyclical divergence between the U.S. and Eurozone is set to widen. Included in this report: - Updated look at ECRI's Eurozone and U.S. Quick Leading Indexes- Analysis of the disparity between Eurozone and U.S. growth and inflation trajectories - Global industrial growth and commodity price inflation prospects- Next steps for the ECB and the FedReview ECRI’s real-time track record.For inform...ECRIWed, 28 Oct 2020 14:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-barron-s-streetwise-what-does-our-future-inflation-gauge-tell-us-about-inflation-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-barron-s-streetwise-what-does-our-future-inflation-gauge-tell-us-about-inflation-prospectsListen to Lakshman Achuthan's interview on the Barron's Streetwise podcast with Jack Hough discussing inflation prospects and more.What does our Future Inflation Gauge tell us about inflation prospects? Clip below, or click through for the full interview. https://t.co/s7RwJhdQQs— Lakshman Achuthan October 24, 2020ECRIMon, 26 Oct 2020 11:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-highest-since-before-lockdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-highest-since-before-lockdownClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 140.6, while the growth rate edged up to 4.2%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cy...ECRIFri, 23 Oct 2020 10:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-housing-the-consumer-and-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-housing-the-consumer-and-inflationOur cyclical clarity about the home price outlook stands out. Included in this report: - Update to our array of U.S. leading indexes - Focus on our U.S. Leading Home Price and Residential Construction Indexes- Analysis of consumer spending prospects- Cyclical vs structural inflation- Debt, QE and the Fed's next chapterReview ECRI’s real-time track record.For information on ECRI professional ser...ECRIWed, 21 Oct 2020 14:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-growth-flattening-outhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-growth-flattening-outClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.0, while the growth rate ticked up to 3.6%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 16 Oct 2020 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-inflation-is-making-a-pervasive-and-persistent-comebackhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-inflation-is-making-a-pervasive-and-persistent-comebackOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan sees evidence inflation is making a comeback.“It’s made a very clear cyclical upturn,” the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.He shows the trend in a special chart of his U.S. future inflation gauge, a proprietary leading indicator, and core CPI.According to Ac...ECRIThu, 15 Oct 2020 08:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-u-s-eurozone-and-japanificationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-u-s-eurozone-and-japanificationBusiness cycle recoveries are underway in the worlds largest economies, including Japan, but policy failures mean that the structural backdrop is conducive to renewed recession risk.Included in this report: - Updated Japanese growth and inflation outlook based on ECRI's array of Japanese indexes- An analysis of the defining characteristics of Japanification, and its long-term impact on develope...ECRIWed, 14 Oct 2020 14:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-2Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 138.8, as the growth rate ticked up to 3.5%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronolog...ECRIFri, 09 Oct 2020 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-outlook-for-the-u-s-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-outlook-for-the-u-s-economyECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNN's Markets Now to discuss jobs, stimulus, where the economy stands and where it's heading.Watch full CNN interview here.ECRIThu, 08 Oct 2020 08:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-service-sector-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-service-sector-outlookMonths ago we highlighted a cyclical dichotomy between the service-providing and goods-producing sectors, as signaled by our sector-specific leading indexes. At the time, the goods-producing sector was the main engine powering the economic recovery, but what of the service-sector? Included in this report: - Updated look at key leading indexes for a beat on the services sector outlook- A look at...ECRIWed, 07 Oct 2020 14:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-perspectives-what-record-growth-numbers-miss-about-the-economic-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-perspectives-what-record-growth-numbers-miss-about-the-economic-recoveryAs the economy recovers from the Covid crisis and we approach the November elections, Americans are confused about where the economy is heading. Stock prices are up sharply from their March lows, yet many small businesses and those who lost their jobs are in dire straits. Understanding where we stand in the economic cycle offers valuable context for what otherwise seems irreconcilable, particul...ECRIWed, 07 Oct 2020 11:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-markets-now-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-markets-now-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNN's Markets Now, on Wednesday, October 7 at 12:45PM ET.ECRIWed, 07 Oct 2020 11:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-grant-s-podcast-interview-updated-growth-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-grant-s-podcast-interview-updated-growth-and-inflation-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins James Grant and Evan Lorenz for a long form discussion on the outlook for growth & inflation, cyclical vs. structural, interest rates and more.New Grant's Podcast with Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. @businesscycle https://t.co/wPDCgz81q2— GRANT'S October 6, 2020ECRITue, 06 Oct 2020 15:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-11Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 139.3, as the growth rate edged up to 3.5%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologie...ECRIFri, 02 Oct 2020 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-growth-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-growth-and-inflation-outlookOur international framework highlights recent shifts in cyclical prospects for the Eurozone and world exports.Included in this report: - Updates to the Eurozone Quick Leading Index- Analysis of the growing cyclical disparity between key economies- Asian exports growth and inflation outlook- Weighing the impact of a Covid-19 second wave and the implications for monetary policyReview ECRI’s real-...ECRIFri, 25 Sep 2020 14:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-20http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-20Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 140.3, as the growth rate rose to 3.0%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies fo...ECRIFri, 25 Sep 2020 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-podcast-recovery-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-podcast-recovery-updateListen to ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discuss our early April recovery call, recent shifts and developing nuances with Caleb Silver on Investopedia.Very excited for the @Investopedia Express Podcast this week as @howardlindzon joins to talk tech, and @businesscycle walks us through the leading economic indicators. Tune on in: https://t.co/DGVquw6vSJ— caleb silver September 21, 2020LISTEN ON APPLEL...ECRIMon, 21 Sep 2020 14:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-inflation-update-amidst-big-crosscurrentshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-inflation-update-amidst-big-crosscurrentsThe Covid crisis has created a drove of dichotomies around growth and inflation. Still, our forward-looking indexes provide a clear look ahead.Included in this report: - Updates to the U.S. inflation outlook- Analysis of consumer spending, and the cyclical implications, during the Covid crisis- A fresh look at the outlook for construction and home price growth - What's next regarding inflation ...ECRIFri, 18 Sep 2020 14:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-8Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 139.4, while the growth rate increased to 2.3%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronolo...ECRIFri, 18 Sep 2020 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-7Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 139.4, as the growth rate rose to 1.6%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies fo...ECRIFri, 11 Sep 2020 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-manufacturing-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-manufacturing-outlookManufacturing is the tail that wags the dog for U.S. growth rate cycles, meaning that manufacturing has the potential to prop up, or weigh on the overall growth rate cycle.Included in this report: - Updates to our broadest measure of manufacturing prospects - Cyclical analysis of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment growth outlooks- Assessment of forward looking commodity price in...ECRIWed, 09 Sep 2020 14:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-7Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 138.7, while the growth rate increased to 0.7%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronolo...ECRIFri, 04 Sep 2020 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-leading-indexes-lakshman-achuthan-an-earlier-warning-systemhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-leading-indexes-lakshman-achuthan-an-earlier-warning-systemA plethora of high frequency data has come to the fore in the context of the Covid crisis. Unfortunately, these indicators are almost entirely coincident in nature, offering little insight into the future. Consequently – bereft of tools to foresee where the economy is headed – many have settled into the view that the only things that matter are updates on the pandemic and central bank action. B...ECRIWed, 02 Sep 2020 15:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-19http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-19Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 138.5, while the growth rate rose further to -0.8%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 28 Aug 2020 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-industrial-sector-outlook-inflation-and-economic-recovery-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-industrial-sector-outlook-inflation-and-economic-recovery-updateOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan is delivering an encouraging outlook.He finds a surge in commodity prices suggests the industrial space will lead the next leg of the recovery.″[It] is really firing on all cylinders,” the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.He builds his bullish case in a chart...ECRIThu, 27 Aug 2020 09:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-outlookOur international leading indexes are signaling a shift in inflation in most major economies. Included in this report: - Updates to our International Long Leading Future Inflation Gauge and 11-Country Future Inflation Gauge - Analysis of the cyclical disparity between the U.S. and Eurozone with currency implications- Japanese recession update- Implications for Japanification regarding future U....ECRIWed, 26 Aug 2020 14:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-6Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 137.6, as the growth rate rose to -2.7%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle ...ECRIFri, 21 Aug 2020 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-splithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-splitA cyclical dichotomy is being highlighted by our leading indexes. Included in this report: - Insights from updates to our U.S. Leading Services and Goods Indexes- Fresh outlook for the consumer, based on high-frequency data- Beneficiaries of the Covid crisis, and will those good fortunes last?- Analysis of labor conditions and jobs prospects- Direction of U.S. economic growthReview ECRI’s real-...ECRIWed, 19 Aug 2020 14:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-the-final-round-leading-indexes-show-where-consumer-is-headedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-the-final-round-leading-indexes-show-where-consumer-is-headedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan recently spoke with Yahoo Finance about the outlook for global industrial growth, our high-frequency leading indexes and the consumer in the context of the fiscal cliff. Summary: Most people are laser-focused on current consumer behavior, overlooking the steadily improving industrial growth outlook. That positive outlook for industrial growth is a key reason why overall...ECRITue, 18 Aug 2020 11:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-the-final-round-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-the-final-round-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's The Final Round, today, August 17 at 4:05PM ET.ECRIMon, 17 Aug 2020 15:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-16http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-16Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 137.3, while the growth rate increased to -4.1%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIFri, 14 Aug 2020 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-gold-is-not-all-that-glittershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-gold-is-not-all-that-glittersWhile the price of gold has surged 33% above its March low, copper prices have soared by 39%. Sure, gold grabs the headlines, but industrial commodity prices have truly been on a tear. Indeed, the price of copper has risen over 23% – nearly double the gold price increase – since ECRI first flagged an industrial growth revival back in May.In early June – when manufacturing PMI data had only just...ECRIThu, 13 Aug 2020 14:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-consumer-spending-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-consumer-spending-growth-outlookAfter its Covid-related collapse in March, the U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending staged a clear recovery, signaling “continued recuperation in consumer spending growth prospects.” This report updates our outlook for consumer spending, taking into account the recent surge in Covid cases and stimulus prospects.Included in this report:- Updated chart of ECRI's U.S. Leading Index of Consumer ...ECRIWed, 12 Aug 2020 14:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-18http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-18Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 135.3, as the growth rate rose to -5.3%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle ...ECRIFri, 07 Aug 2020 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-spotlight-on-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-spotlight-on-chinaThis report provides detailed analysis of the latest readings from our leading indexes for China.Included in this report:- Chinese export growth prospects, sharing an updated to ECRI's Chinese Leading Export's Index- Industrial outlook, featuring ECRI's leading indexes, and the Bullwhip effect- Updated insights into China’s recovery by industry and region- Chinese Leading Home Price Index and r...ECRIWed, 05 Aug 2020 14:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-pmis-up-in-line-with-earlier-forecasthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-pmis-up-in-line-with-earlier-forecastIt’s no surprise that international PMIs around the world are still surging. Back in May, we made an “Industrial Growth Revival” call for our clients using our array of global industrial leading indexes.Read May 2020 International Essentials excerpt hereThis outlook was confirmed by our high-frequency indicators, including the ECRI Industrial Price Index , released daily.  A key reason the IPI ...ECRIMon, 03 Aug 2020 10:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-10Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 133.6, while the growth rate ticked up to -6.5%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 31 Jul 2020 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-industrial-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-industrial-outlookThis report shares insights that separate the cyclical outlook from structural shifts.Included in this report:- An updated analysis of global industrial growth prospects - The latest developments in the U.S. manufacturing sector, including a look at China, Russia and Europe- Korea, China and global trade- How the Covid crisis interacts with evolving international cyclical dynamicsReview ECRI’s ...ECRITue, 28 Jul 2020 14:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-4Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 134.0, while the growth rate increased to -7.0%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 24 Jul 2020 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-next-up-for-growth-inflation-and-the-consumerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-next-up-for-growth-inflation-and-the-consumerOur leading indexes helped us correctly call the recovery in the face of overwhelming negativity. This report updates the full array of indexes, with an eye toward their growth rates as we monitor the risk of a fresh slowdown down the line. Included in this report:- Fresh analysis of ECRI's Weekly Leading Index in the context of our sequential leading indexes- Consumer spending insights with re...ECRIMon, 20 Jul 2020 14:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-6Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was edged up to 134.6, as the growth rate ticked up to -7.2%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 17 Jul 2020 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-recovery-from-recession-and-risk-of-fresh-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-recovery-from-recession-and-risk-of-fresh-slowdownECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNN's Markets Now today to discuss the risk that, even as the recovery from recession is getting underway, a fresh slowdown in growth takes hold, as we saw in the months following the recovery from the 2001 recession.  Watch full interview here.ECRIWed, 15 Jul 2020 16:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-excerpt-are-we-in-the-beginning-of-a-new-downturn-wellhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-business-markets-now-interview-excerpt-are-we-in-the-beginning-of-a-new-downturn-wellThis recession is full of contradictions. We're in a recovery, but still in a recession. The stock market is bouncing back strongly, but markets remain super volatile.But if we take the broader look? We start to see that the bounce back is leveling off. Just a bit."It may be two steps forward, one step back along the way," said Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Instit...ECRIWed, 15 Jul 2020 15:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-17http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-17Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was increased to 134.2, while the growth rate rose to -7.7%.                   ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 10 Jul 2020 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-road-ahead-for-inflation-and-gold-insightshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-road-ahead-for-inflation-and-gold-insightsU.S. inflation pressures have ticked up a bit from extremely weak readings following their unprecedented Covid-related plunge. We are watching our full array of related leading indexes for what comes next.Included in this report:- Fresh analysis of our U.S. Future Inflation Gauge and related data- Variations in inflation  - How does financial accommodation impact inflation?- Spotlight on gold, ...ECRIWed, 08 Jul 2020 14:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-cyclical-fundamentals-to-the-upsidehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-cyclical-fundamentals-to-the-upsideA summer rally may be underway.Economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan cites a bullish, under-the-radar trend in a chart highlighting the firm's special weekly leading index and S&P 500."This is a fundamentally optimistic chart," the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday. "It's showing us that the cyclical fundamentals are to the upside."His weekly le...ECRIMon, 06 Jul 2020 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedClick here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at 133.4, while the growth rate increased further to -8.7%.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIThu, 02 Jul 2020 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-eurozone-recovery-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-eurozone-recovery-prospectsFollowing a sharp Covid-related contraction, this report describes what's next for Eurozone economic growth and inflation. We review the latest forward-looking cyclical data, with the context of longer-term structural forces.Included in this report:- Analysis of cycle dynamics based around recession- Insights from high-frequency data, comparing pre and post Covid-crisis readings- The latest pro...ECRIWed, 01 Jul 2020 14:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-updateToday's release updates our full array of leading indexes for over 20 economies. Included in this report:- Analysis of the global inflation outlook with short, medium and longer term findings- Historical perspective of globalization eras, with fresh insights for what's next- Monetary policy's effect on growth and inflation for the U.S. Eurozone, Japan and China- Comments on evolving Covid-19 ri...ECRIFri, 26 Jun 2020 14:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-easeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-easesClick here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index eased to 131.5, while the growth rate rose further to -12.6%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 26 Jun 2020 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-final-round-biggest-risk-for-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-final-round-biggest-risk-for-marketsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance's The Final Round today to discuss measuring recession severity and the biggest risk for the markets.Highlight: “It’s a very deep recession... [and] very diffuse,” Economic Cycle Research Institute Co-Founder @businesscycle says. “But on duration, it may not end up being all that much. It might be one of the shorter recessions in U.S. history.” Full...ECRIWed, 24 Jun 2020 17:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-the-final-roundhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-the-final-roundECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's The Final Round, Wednesday, June 24 at 3:20PM ET.ECRIWed, 24 Jun 2020 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cumberland-advisors-interview-short-recession-call-revisitedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cumberland-advisors-interview-short-recession-call-revisitedThe Economic Cycle Research Institute specializes in “calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation” and has a long, exemplary history of getting those forecasts right. Cofounded by the late Geoffrey H. Moore, winner of the American Economics Association Distinguished Fellow Award, Lakshman Achuthan, and Anirvan Banerji, ECRI analyzes not the gyrations of the markets but larger ...ECRIWed, 24 Jun 2020 13:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspectives-yes-we-re-in-a-recession-but-the-stock-market-s-rally-still-makes-perfect-sensehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspectives-yes-we-re-in-a-recession-but-the-stock-market-s-rally-still-makes-perfect-senseWith the economy officially in the deepest recession in living memory, the stock market's ongoing rally can seem baffling. Yet, the market upturn makes perfect sense if you understand the historical relationship between stock price cycles and business cycles.The stock market is forward-looking. In order to understand why it's up, it's important to examine forward-looking leading indexes -- rath...ECRIWed, 24 Jun 2020 11:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-15http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-15Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.2, while the growth rate increased further to -14.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 19 Jun 2020 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consumer-spending-sequential-indexes-and-employmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consumer-spending-sequential-indexes-and-employmentToday's release updates ECRI’s full array of U.S. Leading and Coincident Indexes.Included in this report:- Consumer spending outlook sharing our updated U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending- Continued analysis of ECRI’s sequential leading and coincident indexes of U.S. economic growth- Employment prospects by sector- Consumer confidence, virtuous cycles and risks to recovery- Income disparit...ECRIThu, 18 Jun 2020 15:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-reuters-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-reuters-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Reuters, tomorrow, June 18 at 12:30PM ET. ECRIThu, 18 Jun 2020 11:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-why-a-ruinous-recession-and-roaring-stocks-make-perfect-sensehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-why-a-ruinous-recession-and-roaring-stocks-make-perfect-senseAgainst the backdrop of the deepest recession in living memory, there’s widespread bafflement about the rally in equities. It’s a seemingly clear case of cognitive dissonance. But there’s a perfectly rational explanation for the divergence. Bottom line, it makes perfect sense for stocks to have turned up in March.It was already clear to us in early April that this nasty, short and bitter recess...ECRISat, 13 Jun 2020 10:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-16http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-16Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 130.6, while the growth rate rose further to -18.5%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 12 Jun 2020 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-housing-market-outlook-in-covid-timeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-housing-market-outlook-in-covid-timesAs with many other parts of the economy, the residential housing outlook has been volatile this year. Still, our analysis and cyclical framework is highlighting early indications of both a cyclical and structural shifts in housing.Included in this report:-- Updated analysis of our U.S. Leading Home Price Index -- Insights from our Leading and Coincident Indexes of Residential Construction activ...ECRIWed, 10 Jun 2020 14:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-on-the-move-recession-started-in-feb-but-what-s-nexthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-on-the-move-recession-started-in-feb-but-what-s-nextECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance's On the Move today and discussed how this is the fastest the NBER has ever decided a recession start date, which agrees with what ECRI publicly shared in early April. Also shared are insights into how to measure a recession, what it means for households and businesses, and two possible recovery scenarios.Highlight: “The recession is probably going ...ECRITue, 09 Jun 2020 13:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-recession-and-recovery-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-recession-and-recovery-marketsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss the recession, recovery and how the reopening impacts the jobs market. Including market parallels to past recoveries and how the type of job losses in this recession can shape the recovery.ECRITue, 09 Jun 2020 08:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene tomorrow, June 9, at 7:15AM ET. ECRITue, 09 Jun 2020 06:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-with-tom-keene-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-with-tom-keene-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene tomorrow, June 9, at 7:15AM ET. ECRITue, 09 Jun 2020 06:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-14http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-14Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.4, while the growth rate increased further to -22.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 05 Jun 2020 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-employment-dives-and-starts-snapback-at-warp-speedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-employment-dives-and-starts-snapback-at-warp-speedIn just two months, we lost more than double the percentage of jobs lost in over two years around the Great Recession, and nearly half the percentage lost in over 3½ years during the Great Depression, before regaining more than one in nine of those lost jobs in May.U.S. nonfarm employment plunged 14½% in two months – more than double the 6.3% decline in employment in over two years around the G...ECRIFri, 05 Jun 2020 09:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-a-recovery-call-that-is-still-contrarianhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-a-recovery-call-that-is-still-contrarianECRI predicted back in April – based on our leading indexes – that this recession would end by summertime. In fact, the Weekly Leading Index turned up in March, and has since risen over 18% in eight weeks. That view was – and still is – very different from those based on other well-known leading indicators: the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators and the OECD’s Composite Lea...ECRIThu, 04 Jun 2020 17:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-two-key-recovery-scenarios-and-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-two-key-recovery-scenarios-and-marketsECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC’s Trading Nation to discuss how markets have fared under two very different types of recoveries this century.This is a brutal recession, especially in terms of depth and diffusion. But as we said last time we spoke in April, “This recession could end up being among the shortest on record."Economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan warns a recession worse than the...ECRIThu, 04 Jun 2020 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-key-shift-in-global-industrial-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-key-shift-in-global-industrial-growth-prospectsA key shift in global industrial growth prospects is in the offing as the peak of the Covid crisis recedes.Included in this report:-- Implications for supplier demand and commodity price growth-- Detailed analysis of sensitive industrial material prices-- Consumer behavior and the global industrial cycle-- Alternative coincident data and analysis into the effects on the consumerReview ECRI’s re...ECRIWed, 03 Jun 2020 14:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/market-s-make-or-break-moment-in-one-charthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/market-s-make-or-break-moment-in-one-chartThe last two recessions may help determine what’s next for the recent market rally.Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan has narrowed the possible recovery paths into two scenarios: The dot.com bubble collapse and financial crisis aftermath.Achuthan builds his case in a special S&P 500 chart showing performance during the 2009 to 2010 and 2001 to 2003 recoveries.“If we ...ECRIWed, 03 Jun 2020 10:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-15http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-15ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 125.7, as the growth rate rose further to -25.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.Please see below for pub...ECRIFri, 29 May 2020 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-global-industrial-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-global-industrial-growth-prospectsAs a result of the Covid crisis, global structural changes are accelerating on multiple fronts. At the same time, the world's economies must navigate shifting cyclical shoals. This report provides the latest updates to ECRI's array of international leading indexes, clarifying the near-term cyclical direction in the face of a changing economic landscape.Included in this report:- Updated outlook ...ECRIWed, 27 May 2020 14:38:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-wall-street-journal-the-stock-market-and-consumer-sentiment-are-telling-different-storieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-wall-street-journal-the-stock-market-and-consumer-sentiment-are-telling-different-storiesStocks have rebounded dramatically off their March lows, while consumer sentiment is hovering near the lowest level in nearly a decade. The divergence is one of many realities investors are struggling to reconcile.The spread between the monthly percentage change of the S&P 500 and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey climbed to 32 percentage points last month, the widest-ever ...ECRIWed, 27 May 2020 12:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-13http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-13Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.7, as the growth rate increased to -28.8%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycl...ECRIFri, 22 May 2020 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-shift-in-outlook-as-recovery-questions-mounthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-shift-in-outlook-as-recovery-questions-mountThe Covid crisis continues to crush the economy. At the same time our leading indexes have shifted gears, suggesting a new phase of the cycle is taking shape.Included in this report:- Deep dive into ECRI’s high-frequency data- Analysis of our sequential leading indexes of the business cycle- Updated sector specific indexes, including a look at the U.S. Coincident Financial and Non-Financial Ser...ECRIWed, 20 May 2020 14:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-14http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-14Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 120.1, while the growth rate rose to -32.6%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 15 May 2020 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-anirvan-banerji-lakshman-achuthan-recession-recovery-demand-destruction-cyclical-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-anirvan-banerji-lakshman-achuthan-recession-recovery-demand-destruction-cyclical-risksECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV's Daybreak Asia to discuss recession, recovery, demand destruction, cyclical risks and what happens next.Additional insights include:-- You can force a recession, but you can't force a recovery-- The stock price upturn is consistent with economy’s cyclical fundamentals-- The biggest risk is a fresh slowdown after the end of this recession-- The key t...ECRIThu, 14 May 2020 19:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-anirvan-banerji-lakshman-achuthan-radio-interview-on-global-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-anirvan-banerji-lakshman-achuthan-radio-interview-on-global-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the outlook, cyclical risks and contrarian calls with Bryan Curtis and Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia radio.Listen to the full interview here.ECRIThu, 14 May 2020 18:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Thursday, May 14 at 7:10 PM ET.ECRIThu, 14 May 2020 18:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Radio on Thursday, May 14 at 6:10 PM ET.ECRIThu, 14 May 2020 17:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-services-in-recession-and-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-services-in-recession-and-recoveryJob losses in this recession are overwhelmingly in the service sector. This report provides insights into what that means for the eventual recovery.Included in this report:-- Updates to our U.S. employment indexes, including the Leading Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Employment Indexes-- Analysis of how the downturn in employment has impacted different regions of the country-- Next steps, ...ECRIWed, 13 May 2020 14:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-the-business-cycle-basics-of-this-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-investopedia-the-business-cycle-basics-of-this-recessionBusiness Cycle BasicsThis is a brutal recession, but may not be as bad in one respect. To understand why, we must assess the severity of this recession in terms of the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. With over 21 million jobs already lost in just two months, compared with fewer than nine million jobs lost over two years during the Great Recession, this recession is already off the cha...ECRIMon, 11 May 2020 09:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-12Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 118.1, while the growth rate increased to -35.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 08 May 2020 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-podcast-the-recession-in-context-and-the-coming-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-podcast-the-recession-in-context-and-the-coming-recoveryECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna of MacroVoices to discuss:-  What cycles to focus on amidst the crisis-  3D’s of recession: Depth, Diffusion, Duration-  Exogenous shock factors: how is this recession different? -  Based on historic cycles, what should we expect next?-  What can we learn from economic cycles and deflation?-  Is the Covid Crisis a catalyst for a ...ECRIFri, 08 May 2020 09:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fastest-job-loss-everhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fastest-job-loss-everIn just two months, we’ve lost more than twice the percentage of jobs lost in over two years around the Great Recession, and nearly half the percentage lost in over 3½ years during the Great Depression.U.S. nonfarm employment has already plunged 14% in two months. That’s more than double the 6.3% decline in employment in over two years around the Great Recession. It’s also nearly half the 31.7%...ECRIFri, 08 May 2020 08:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-stock-markets-and-recessionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-stock-markets-and-recessionsThis report summarizes ECRI's cyclical analysis of the relationship between equity prices and business cycle troughs in major international markets, with important implications for the current environment. Review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 06 May 2020 14:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-13http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-13Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 115.8, while the growth rate rose to -38.8%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 01 May 2020 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-what-s-next-for-the-global-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-what-s-next-for-the-global-recessionThis report updates ECRI's analysis of the global recession based on the latest data on our array of global leading indexes.Included in this report:-- Update to China's cyclical outlook, along with some of its key trading partners-- Analysis of ECRI's high-frequency indexes-- Review of bullwhip effect on global supply chains -- Alternative coincident data sheds light on coronavirus impacts in k...ECRITue, 28 Apr 2020 14:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-11Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 113.4, as the growth rate edged up to -41.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle...ECRIFri, 24 Apr 2020 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/the-three-d-s-and-high-frequency-leading-indicatorshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/the-three-d-s-and-high-frequency-leading-indicatorsThis is a brutal recession. But in one respect it may not be as bad.To understand why, you need to understand how a recession’s severity is measured. We have to look at the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. In terms of depth, this recession is extraordinarily deep. Already, 26.5 million people have filed for jobless claims, compared with a total of 8.7 million jobs lost during the Great...ECRIThu, 23 Apr 2020 09:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-three-ds-and-high-frequency-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-three-ds-and-high-frequency-dataECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with CNBC about how to measure recessions with the three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. ECRIWed, 22 Apr 2020 13:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-growth-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-growth-and-inflation-outlookThis report provides detailed analysis of the depth, diffusion and duration of the current U.S. recession. Based on our long history of cyclical analysis we give shape to what happens next, and what the recovery may bring.Included in this report: -- Latest readings from our leading indexes, including high frequency leading and coincident indexes through mid-April -- Analysis of the employment a...ECRIFri, 17 Apr 2020 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-12Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 111.3 while the growth rate fell to a new record low of -42.5%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycl...ECRIFri, 17 Apr 2020 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-anirvan-banerji-lakshman-achuthan-radio-interview-on-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-anirvan-banerji-lakshman-achuthan-radio-interview-on-recessionECRI’s Anirvan Banerji joined ARD to discuss recession, recovery and the long-term impacts of the global shutdowns. Read his notes below:Q: Who are the winners and who are the losers?A: Health care aside, the winners are businesses that are busier because of the virus, and whose services are more popular during the shutdowns or help in working online rather than offline. The losers are companie...ECRITue, 14 Apr 2020 13:51:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-9Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 105.0 while the growth rate dropped to a record low of -37.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle...ECRIThu, 09 Apr 2020 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/conomic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-dynamics-amid-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/conomic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-dynamics-amid-recessionWhile the trigger for this recession is unprecedented, our understanding of the cyclical drivers of inflation provides a roadmap for the future direction of inflation pressures.Included in this report:-- Analysis of ECRI's inflation indexes, including the latest readings from the Weekly U.S. Future Inflation Gauge-- Insights into inflation cycle and business cycle dynamics-- Implications of the...ECRIWed, 08 Apr 2020 14:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-a-nasty-short-bitter-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-a-nasty-short-bitter-recessionWith the coronavirus pandemic slamming the economy into a severe recession, it’s natural to try to see the light at the end of the tunnel – and imagine the shape of the recovery. Yet, that revival will depend critically on the nature and intensity of this recession.A recession’s severity is measured by its depth, diffusion and duration, or what we call the 3Ds. In terms of depth, this recession...ECRISat, 04 Apr 2020 11:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-dropsClick here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index dropped to 106.0, a 576-week low. Meanwhile the growth rate plunged to -26.9%, a 587-week low.                      ECRI has long deter...ECRIFri, 03 Apr 2020 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-what-s-next-for-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-what-s-next-for-chinaThis report provides detailed analysis of ECRI's recently updated Chinese leading and coincident indexes.Included in this report:-- Impact of the coronavirus on current and future Chinese growth and inflation-- Cyclical differences for China's services and manufacturing sectors-- Insights into recent data releases-- Next steps for policy makersReview our recent real-time track record.For inform...ECRIWed, 01 Apr 2020 14:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-worst-since-great-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-worst-since-great-recessionClick here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index plunged to 113.1 while the growth rate plummeted to -15.5%. Both readings are their lowest since the Great Recession.                  ...ECRIFri, 27 Mar 2020 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-recession-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-recession-prospectsThis report updates the very latest data on ECRI's full array of global coincident and leading indexes and provides in-depth analysis of recession risks in light of the coronavirus pandemic.Included in this report:-- Detailed analysis of our leading and coincident indexes for 22 economies-- Update to China's cyclical outlook, along with some of its key trading partners-- Review of the European ...ECRIThu, 26 Mar 2020 14:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-4Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 136.1, a 198-week low, while the growth rate decreased to -4.4%, a 56-week low.                     ECRI has long determined bu...ECRIFri, 20 Mar 2020 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-recession-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-recession-prospectsThis report provides in depth analysis of U.S. recession risk in light of the coronavirus pandemic.Included in this report:-- Detailed analysis of our high frequency leading and coincident indexes through mid-March-- Review of monetary, fiscal and medical responses to the crisis Review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscyc...ECRIThu, 19 Mar 2020 15:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspectives-fed-s-latest-rate-cut-was-a-useless-and-desperate-movehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspectives-fed-s-latest-rate-cut-was-a-useless-and-desperate-moveIf the intent was to boost the economy or the markets, the Fed's 50-basis-point emergency rate cut a couple weeks ago was an exercise in futility. Doubling down on that failed strategy — by announcing an additional 100-basis-point cut Sunday evening — was just useless and desperate.The subsequent market reaction only underscores the Fed's impotence.Going into the coronavirus pandemic, the US ec...ECRITue, 17 Mar 2020 09:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-sun-valley-idaho-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-sun-valley-idaho-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Sun Valley, Idaho from March 16 - 20.ECRIMon, 16 Mar 2020 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-8Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 143.0 while the growth rate fell to -0.5%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIFri, 13 Mar 2020 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/school-closures-are-starting-and-they-ll-have-far-reaching-economic-impactshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/school-closures-are-starting-and-they-ll-have-far-reaching-economic-impactsThe NBA has canceled the season until further notice, there are new restrictions on travel from Europe, but what worries many economists most is the fact that schools are beginning to close, including, most recently, the entire Ohio public school system.As the number of coronavirus infections continue to rise, numerous educational institutions—including colleges in 15 states and the District of...ECRIThu, 12 Mar 2020 09:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-jobs-and-the-coronavirushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-jobs-and-the-coronavirusThis report provides detailed analysis of the U.S. employment cycle in light of the coronavirus outbreak.Included in this report:-- The coronavirus' impact on various aspects of the jobs market -- Updated charts of ECRI's U.S. leading manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes-- Near and longer-term outlook for U.S. jobs and economic growthReview our recent real-time track record.For informati...ECRIWed, 11 Mar 2020 16:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspectives-the-fed-s-emergency-rate-cut-was-a-big-mistakehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspectives-the-fed-s-emergency-rate-cut-was-a-big-mistakeFearing the US economy would fall into a recession due to the coronavirus, the Fed pushed through an emergency rate cut for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet, our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than the Fed -- and most economists -- realize. This rate cut could do more harm than good.What they may not appreciate is t...ECRIFri, 06 Mar 2020 10:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-3Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 145.0 as the growth rate decreased to 1.2%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle c...ECRIFri, 06 Mar 2020 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CBS This Morning to discuss how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass.It appears children are less susceptible to serious infections related to #coronavirus compared to adults, although the reasons are unclear. Schools around the world have shut down as the virus spreads.@megoliver reports on how some schools in the U.S. are preparing...ECRIThu, 05 Mar 2020 10:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycleECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CBS This Morning to discuss how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass.It appears children are less susceptible to serious infections related to #coronavirus compared to adults, although the reasons are unclear. Schools around the world have shut down as the virus spreads.@megoliver reports on how some schools in the U.S. are preparing...ECRIThu, 05 Mar 2020 09:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-australia-s-recession-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-australia-s-recession-prospectsThis report provides detailed analysis of ECRI's Australian leading indexes, in light of the negative impacts from the bushfires and the coronavirus.Included in this report:-- Impact of bushfires and the coronavirus on future Australian growth and inflation-- RBA policy options-- Structural shifts in Australian tradeReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services...ECRIWed, 04 Mar 2020 14:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-rushing-along-the-road-to-japanificationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-rushing-along-the-road-to-japanificationECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC’s Closing Bell today to discuss the cyclical outlook and the Fed. Our research shows that – predating today’s rate cut – most major western economies, including the U.S., came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than many realize. Hence, the rate cut was ill-timed. The relevant question is whether we were headed into a recession. In answering...ECRITue, 03 Mar 2020 16:58:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell, today at 3:30PM ET.ECRITue, 03 Mar 2020 14:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-5Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 147.9 while the growth rate fell further to 2.6%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 28 Feb 2020 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-coronavirus-collides-with-the-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-coronavirus-collides-with-the-cycleThis report provides the latest updates to ECRI's array of international leading indexes, including some through February:-- Latest read on our global leading manufacturing indexes -- Updates for the U.S. manufacturing and services sector outlooks through February-- Impact of China supply chain problems on a major Asian economy through FebruaryReview our recent real-time track record.For inform...ECRIThu, 27 Feb 2020 14:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-a-predictable-pratfallhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-a-predictable-pratfallThe Japanese Manufacturing PMI has now dropped to an over-seven-year low, and its services counterpart to a nearly-six-year low, with both PMIs deep in contraction. This is part of a new Japanese recession – its fifth since 2008 – that ECRI had warned about well before last fall’s sales tax hike. The key point is that, yet again, this recession was triggered by a shock hitting the Japanese econ...ECRIFri, 21 Feb 2020 11:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-7Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 147.7 while the growth rate fell to 3.8%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 21 Feb 2020 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-construction-manufacturing-and-inflation-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-construction-manufacturing-and-inflation-outlooksThis report updates ECRI's full array of leading indexes for the U.S. economy.Included in this report: - Construction cycle prospects- Update to our commodities and coronavirus analysis- Review of the manufacturing cycle in light of supply chain issuesReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIThu, 20 Feb 2020 14:09:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-5Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 148.2 while the growth rate decreased to 4.8%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 14 Feb 2020 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-cycle-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-cycle-outlookThis report includes:- a review of inflation expectations in the context of our updated U.S. Future Inflation Gauge - a three P's analysis of the USFIG- understanding the New York Fed's Underlying Inflation Gauge  - the impact of the coronavirus on inflation Review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on ...ECRIWed, 12 Feb 2020 14:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-6Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 149.0 while the growth rate was little changed at 5.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and...ECRIFri, 07 Feb 2020 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-divergent-export-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-divergent-export-prospectsThis report updates ECRI's array of leading exports indexes for key advanced and developing economies in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.This report also includes:- An update to our Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index with implications for Korea and TaiwanReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitt...ECRIWed, 05 Feb 2020 14:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-10Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 151.0 as the growth rate increased to 5.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycl...ECRIFri, 31 Jan 2020 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interview-coronavirus-impact-on-commodity-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interview-coronavirus-impact-on-commodity-price-outlookLakshman Achuthan joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss the cyclical upturn in industrial commodity price inflation, in line with a global industrial growth upturn that has been taking shape, according to our research. Our global industrial indicators anticipate cycle turns well in advance, so we already know that this nascent upturn in ECRI’s Industrial Price Index growth is more than noise.In fact,...ECRITue, 28 Jan 2020 15:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-world-trade-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-world-trade-prospectsThis report provides updates to ECRI's array of international leading indexes, including:- World trade prospects, in the context of ECRI's 21-Country Long Leading Index- Update to global industrial growth and China outlooks in light of the coronavirus- ECRI's U.S.-Eurozone Cyclical Disparity IndexReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.F...ECRITue, 28 Jan 2020 14:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bnn-bloomberg-tv-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bnn-bloomberg-tv-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on BNN Bloombergs' Commodities today, January 28 at 11:30AM.ECRITue, 28 Jan 2020 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-9Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at 150.6 while the growth rate rose to 5.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and...ECRIFri, 24 Jan 2020 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-hard-data-defies-confident-consensushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-hard-data-defies-confident-consensusThe consensus is that the U.S. consumer is still strong enough to propel the economy forward even though the manufacturing sector has weakened. This view underpins expectations for improved corporate earnings in 2020. But the hard economic data strikes a discordant note.In particular, growth in industrial production on a year-over-year basis remains in a decisive downturn, sliding deeper into n...ECRIWed, 22 Jan 2020 09:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-growth-and-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-growth-and-inflation-outlookOur forward looking indexes are signaling important shifts that can catch observers off-guard.Included in this report: - An update to our inflation cycle analysis- Review of ECRI's Industrial Price Index including both the exchange and non-exchange traded components- Updated on manufacturing cycles in light of the 10-year low in the ISM Manufacturing PMI- A review of the U.S. employment cycle -...ECRITue, 21 Jan 2020 14:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-8Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 150.6 while the growth rate increased to 4.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 17 Jan 2020 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-global-industrial-growth-supports-commoditieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-global-industrial-growth-supports-commoditiesOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI’s Achuthan speaks with CNBC’s Trading Nation about the cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. More details here:Cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. Details here: https://t.co/glnappAkqy pic.twitter.com/xABkLTTC3r— Lakshman Achuthan January 16, 2020ECRIThu, 16 Jan 2020 11:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-upside-for-industrial-commodity-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-upside-for-industrial-commodity-inflationOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Industrial commodity price inflation, which is still pretty beaten down, is starting a cyclical upturn.We know this because we’re tracking cycles in global industrial growth, which is a key driver of industrial commodity prices.In Sept. 2019 we alerted clients: “nascent upturns in ECRI’s forward looking indicators of global industrial growth are tak...ECRIThu, 16 Jan 2020 10:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cutting-through-the-china-noisehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cutting-through-the-china-noiseA review of the cyclical shifts underway in China helps to cut through the noise in the data and keep economic risks in perspective.Included in this report: - Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index- Chinese Leading Exports Index- Update to ECRI's China “rust belt” analysis- Chinese Alternative Future Inflation Gauge updateReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our clie...ECRIWed, 15 Jan 2020 15:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-international-quest-means-business-interview-jobs-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-international-quest-means-business-interview-jobs-marketsFirst, the good news! We’ve had 10 straight years of job gains with the 2010s seeing over 22 million jobs added – the most of any decade – and the jobless rate is at a 50-year low.But in 2019 employers added 600K less jobs than in 2018. That slower jobs growth is consistent with the slowing economy that ECRI predicted, and yoy nonfarm payroll job growth has now fallen to a 2¼-year low – just a ...ECRIMon, 13 Jan 2020 10:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-11Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 148.7 while the growth rate rose to 3.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 10 Jan 2020 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-home-price-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-home-price-inflation-outlookIncluded in this report: - Updated chart and review of ECRI's U.S. Leading Home Price Index - Analysis of the construction outlook sharing ECRI's U.S. Leading Construction Index- Review of ECRI's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge and the outlook for U.S. inflation pressuresReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitte...ECRIWed, 08 Jan 2020 14:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-5Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 147.8 as the growth rate edged down to 2.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 03 Jan 2020 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-understanding-cycles-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-understanding-cycles-interviewWatch full interview here.Lakshman Achuthan sits down with Real Vision for a long-form interview about ECRI's process and updates to our public outlook.Filmed in New York on December 9, 2019. Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:In Sept. 2019 we alerted clients: “nascent upturns in ECRI’s forward looking indicators of global industrial growth are takin...ECRITue, 31 Dec 2019 09:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-global-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-global-growth-prospectsECRI’s international leading indexes disagree with the comfortable consensus about the global growth outlook. Covered in this report: - Global growth prospects, including an update of ECRI's 21-Country Long Leading Index Growth Diffusion Index- Update to country specific Eurozone manufacturing outlooks in the context of our global industrial growth outlook- Japanese outlook- A review of global ...ECRIFri, 27 Dec 2019 14:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-7Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.7 while the growth rate ticked up to 2.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 27 Dec 2019 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-2019-private-client-cycle-calls-in-reviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-2019-private-client-cycle-calls-in-reviewWhat our clients saw in real time in 2019 – some highlights: October 2019 Industrial Outlook Improves in China Despite the trade war, Chinese industrial growth prospects have begun to improve. This is a key development for the nascent upturn in our forward looking indicators of global industrial growth to gain traction. – International Essentials, October 2019, Vol. XXX, No. 10 Read October 201...ECRITue, 24 Dec 2019 09:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-2019-public-calls-in-review-track-recordhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-2019-public-calls-in-review-track-recordAs 2019 got underway, we expected the global growth slowdown – which predated the trade war – to continue. We also predicted continued downswings in U.S. economic growth and inflation, flying in the face of expectations of a second-half recovery based on the Powell Pivot and massive Chinese stimulus. But by summer, we were looking for Eurozone growth to start reviving, followed by our forecast ...ECRIFri, 20 Dec 2019 10:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-10Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 147.1 while the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 2.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycl...ECRIFri, 20 Dec 2019 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updates-on-u-s-manufacturing-employment-and-inflation-cycleshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updates-on-u-s-manufacturing-employment-and-inflation-cyclesThis report updates ECRI's full array of U.S. indexes with implications for the near term, and well into 2020, including: - U.S. manufacturing sector prospects in the context of the global industrial outlook - Updates to recession risks, with a review of ECRI's U.S. Long Leading Index- Employment cycle analysis as it pertains to the consumer - Review of ECRI's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Review...ECRIWed, 18 Dec 2019 14:05:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-real-vision-what-makes-ecri-different-and-our-updated-public-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-real-vision-what-makes-ecri-different-and-our-updated-public-outlookLakshman Achuthan sat down with Real Vision on December 9 to discuss our process, including what makes ECRI different, and also share an update to our public outlook. See clips from the interview below:What's the relationship between growth and inflation? Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI sits down with Real Vision’s @edwardnh to explore what the growth rate cycle may be telling us about future market ...ECRIFri, 13 Dec 2019 13:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-5Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 145.9 while the growth rate edged down to 2.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 13 Dec 2019 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-indian-cyclical-and-structural-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-indian-cyclical-and-structural-prospectsThis detailed report updates notable shifts in the Indian cyclical and structural outlooks.- Updates to ECRI's Indian leading indexes, including the Indian Long Leading and Leading Exports Indexes and its Future Inflation Gauge- Analysis of critical structural eventsReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter...ECRIWed, 11 Dec 2019 16:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-6Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.8 while the growth rate increased to 2.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 06 Dec 2019 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-business-investment-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-business-investment-outlookWhile corporate tax rate cuts can provide a short-term boost, cyclical forces are the true drivers of investment growth. This report shares cyclical updates to the key determinants of investment growth with knock-on effects for business spending and economic growth in the coming months.Covered in this report: - The current cyclical conditions dictating investment growth- An updated look at ECRI...ECRIWed, 04 Dec 2019 14:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 146.8 as the growth rate rose to 1.7%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIWed, 27 Nov 2019 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-5Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.0 as the growth rate increased to 1.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycl...ECRIFri, 22 Nov 2019 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-update-on-recession-risk-and-rateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-update-on-recession-risk-and-ratesEven as recession fears in the markets evaporate our analysis shows that recession risks remain active.This report includes:- Review of the employment cycle, including an update to our Cyclical Labor Conditions Index- Review of recent developments in market and non-market inputs to our array of leading indexes- Cyclical analysis of Fed rate expectationsReview our recent real-time track record.F...ECRIWed, 20 Nov 2019 14:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-hard-data-deceleratinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-hard-data-deceleratingFor the U.S. there’s nothing to be optimistic about – except optimism itself. In other words, the risk-on rally is predicated on a revival in growth, including solid holiday sales. But, regardless of new market highs, there is little objective evidence in the hard data to support that view. The chart presents the hard data for industry and the consumer – the heart of the real economy – showing ...ECRITue, 19 Nov 2019 09:41:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-9Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.2 as the growth rate rose to 0.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycl...ECRIFri, 15 Nov 2019 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forecast-to-fact-green-shoots-in-the-eurozonehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-forecast-to-fact-green-shoots-in-the-eurozoneUnbeknownst to virtually all, an upturn in Eurozone growth was set to take hold by early summer. This was the cyclical setup in the face of widespread uncertainty fueled by the threat of Brexit, the rise of populism, and the feared fallout from the trade war. ECRI’s leading indexes cut through the confusion, providing clarity on the future cyclical direction of growth.Despite continued weakness...ECRIThu, 14 Nov 2019 11:48:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-update-on-korea-and-taiwanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-update-on-korea-and-taiwanIn the context of the global industrial slowdown, there are notable shifts in the Taiwanese and Korean cycle outlooks.Covered in this report: - Updates to ECRI's Korea and Taiwan leading and coincident indexes; including those for overall growth and manufacturing- Analysis of cycles in Korea and Taiwan relative to the Chinese and global industrial growth outlooks- Review of Korea and Taiwan exp...ECRIWed, 13 Nov 2019 14:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-podcast-forward-looking-data-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-podcast-forward-looking-data-upInterview starts at 25:00.Lakshman Achuthan joined the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast to discuss ECRI’s early summer call that Eurozone growth would firm, and how that relates to the prospect of a global industrial growth upturn.ECRIMon, 11 Nov 2019 14:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-interviewECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance’s Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene to share an update to our outlook.Key points: - Back in the early summer ECRI made a completely out-of-consensus Eurozone growth rate cycle upturn call that people are only now catching up to. It has already begun to play out across the continent, including stronger than consensus GDP data for France, Italy a...ECRIMon, 11 Nov 2019 09:31:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-london-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-london-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients from November 11 - 12.ECRIMon, 11 Nov 2019 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene on Monday, November 11, at 6:00AM ET. ECRIMon, 11 Nov 2019 05:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.7 as the growth rate edged up to -0.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate...ECRIFri, 08 Nov 2019 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-soft-landing-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-soft-landing-prospectsThe durability of the economic expansion hinges on the varying performance of key sectors of the U.S. economy.  Our cyclical framework, which monitors the different facets, and multiple sectors of the economy, provides a clear forward-looking view for manufacturing and services. This report includes:- Three Ps analysis of the U.S. Leading Nonfinancial Services Index- Update on U.S. consumer spe...ECRIWed, 06 Nov 2019 13:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-8Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 145.2 while the growth rate ticked down to -0.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 01 Nov 2019 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-global-outlook-incl-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-global-outlook-incl-chinaThis report provides recent updates to ECRI's array of international leading indexes, with a focus on:- Chinese industrial growth - German exports - Global industrial growthReview our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIFri, 25 Oct 2019 15:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-4Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 144.8 while the growth rate slipped further to -0.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and gr...ECRIFri, 25 Oct 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-don-t-blame-the-global-slowdown-on-the-us-china-trade-warhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-don-t-blame-the-global-slowdown-on-the-us-china-trade-warEver since last year, nothing has grabbed economists' attention as much as the whipsawing evolution of the US-China trade war. Just last week, the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for 2020, citing trade and geopolitical tensions.But economic forecasters are misunderstanding the primary cause of the current global slowdown, which means that they'll also miss what's coming next.In hindsi...ECRIThu, 24 Oct 2019 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-update-on-employment-consumer-spending-and-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-update-on-employment-consumer-spending-and-recession-riskProspects for consumer spending have shifted in the lead-up to the holiday shopping season. This report includes:- Analysis of the consumer spending outlook, including an update to the U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending- Review of recent developments in our employment indexes- Analysis of the Fed's recent "not-QE" announcement alongside the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge - Update to our full ...ECRIFri, 18 Oct 2019 14:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 144.4 while the growth rate slipped to 0.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIFri, 18 Oct 2019 10:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-4Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 145.4 while the growth rate ticked up to 1.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 11 Oct 2019 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-underpinnings-of-the-bond-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-underpinnings-of-the-bond-marketECRI's cyclical indexes for economic growth and inflation help to make sense of fluctuations in the bond market.Covered in this report: - Isolating cyclical moves from noise in the growth and inflation data- Analysis of ECRI's G7 Future Inflation Gauge and G7 inflation expectations- Review of the structural backdrop for the G7 on a country specific basis for over half a century- How central ban...ECRIWed, 09 Oct 2019 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-consumer-spending-growth-slowinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-consumer-spending-growth-slowingOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Most people still think that while manufacturing has slowed, with the consumer in good shape -- and accounting for over two-thirds of GDP -- overall economic growth should be fine.  ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss how this narrative doesn't add up, and that weaker U.S. consumer spening means recession risk can't be taken off the tabl...ECRIWed, 09 Oct 2019 12:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's On the Move, today, October 4 between 12PM and 1PM ET.ECRIFri, 04 Oct 2019 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 146.1 while the growth rate increased to 0.8%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth...ECRIFri, 04 Oct 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-dissecting-productivity-growth-trendshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-dissecting-productivity-growth-trendsThe recent improvement in productivity growth has raised hopes that it will be sustained. This report includes:- Analysis of a structural and cyclical trends in productivity growth- Analysis of the main contributors to productivity growth over time- Answers to what is likely to happen with productivity growthClick here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client se...ECRIWed, 02 Oct 2019 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-ism-mfg-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-ism-mfg-callLakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss the latest ISM data in the context of the ongoing cyclical slowdown. Key points: ISM Mfg fell to its worst reading since June 2009, underscoring that the manufacturing slowdown that ECRI predicted long ago is worse than analysts expected. The popular view is that, while manufacturing has slowed, the consumer is over two-thirds of GDP and is in good shape...ECRIWed, 02 Oct 2019 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell, today at 4:30PM ET.ECRITue, 01 Oct 2019 15:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-torontohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-torontoECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Toronto, Canada from October 1 - 2.ECRITue, 01 Oct 2019 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-interview-eurozone-looking-betterhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-interview-eurozone-looking-betterSeptember 22nd, 2019 Interview.People are convinced that the Eurozone is going into recession, but our work tells us that’s too pessimistic because it’s too simplistic. German GDP went slightly negative and their manufacturing PMI looks bad, but ECRI’s research shows that economic growth is turning up in countries like France, and away from German manufacturing which remains in the crosshairs o...ECRIFri, 27 Sep 2019 12:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchangedClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was unchanged at 146.6 as the growth rate edged up to -0.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 27 Sep 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-industrial-cycle-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-industrial-cycle-updateThis report updates ECRI's array of international leading indexes, with special attention to:- Global industrial growth- Chinese industrial growth and inflation- European cyclical insightsClick here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIThu, 26 Sep 2019 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-japan-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-japan-recession-riskSeptember 22nd, 2019 Interview.ECRI research shows that, based on our forward-looking cycle indicators, Japan has entered “window of vulnerability” within which negative shocks tend to be recessionary. At the same time, while many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s even worse for Japan because a big part of its exports which go to China are getting slammed.  Fu...ECRIWed, 25 Sep 2019 16:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-upturn-in-indiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-upturn-in-indiaSeptember 22nd, 2019 Interview.From a cyclical perspective the timing is good, with ECRI’s leading indexes showing a trough in the current slowdown, and a growth rate cycle upturn ahead. The recent corporate tax cut is a big step, bringing tax rates down to the likes of Singapore, which is one of the lowest in Asia. It is also timely for those firms thinking of alternative supply chains away fr...ECRITue, 24 Sep 2019 16:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-use-jobs-slowdown-is-importanthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-use-jobs-slowdown-is-importantSeptember 22nd, 2019 Interview.Year-over-year nonfarm job growth is at an 8-yr low. Meanwhile, ECRI’s U.S. Leading Employment Index growth has already plunged to a 10-yr low, pointing to further slowing in job growth ahead.This can weigh on consumer spending, which is the last pillar supporting the U.S. economy now that manufacturing is slowing sharply. Watch the full interview.ECRITue, 24 Sep 2019 06:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-industrial-slowdown-grips-china-ushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-industrial-slowdown-grips-china-usSeptember 22nd, 2019 Interview.ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Australia to discuss the latest trade talk developments, and how, while they seem salient, the global industrial slowdown remains a key driver of the outlook for both China and the United States.Watch the full interview.ECRIMon, 23 Sep 2019 12:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspective-the-us-economy-isn-t-in-the-clear-a-recession-is-still-on-the-tablehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnn-perspective-the-us-economy-isn-t-in-the-clear-a-recession-is-still-on-the-tableThe stock market is once again nearing record highs amid investor hopes that a recession is off the table — at least for now. After all, economic data like retail sales and the jobless rate don't look disastrous, a trade deal with China may be in the works and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday he expects the economy to remain strong, even as the Fed cut interest rates for th...ECRIMon, 23 Sep 2019 09:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-tv-interview-bloomberg-asia-australiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-tv-interview-bloomberg-asia-australiaECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak on Sunday, September 22 at 6:10 PM ET.ECRISun, 22 Sep 2019 17:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-4Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 146.7 as the growth rate increased to -1.5%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIFri, 20 Sep 2019 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-manufacturing-jobs-leading-index-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-manufacturing-jobs-leading-index-updateThe manufacturing sector is key to assessing recession risk for the overall economy. This report includes:- Analysis of the manufacturing sector and PMI prospects  - Review of recent developments in non-manufacturing leading indexes- Insights into the jobs outlook, with implications for consumer spending- Analysis of what real-time data can look like ahead of recessionClick here to review our r...ECRIThu, 19 Sep 2019 14:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-quint-an-upturn-in-india-s-growth-cycle-is-in-the-offinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-quint-an-upturn-in-india-s-growth-cycle-is-in-the-offingEconomic growth in India has moderated over the last five quarters, falling to its lowest in six years in the April-June 2019 period. While many believe that growth may have reached a trough, the timing of a turnaround remains uncertain.The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan believes that a turnaround is in sight. The ECRI’s forward-looking leading indicators on India’s econo...ECRIFri, 13 Sep 2019 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-7Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 144.8 as the growth rate edged up to -2.5%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate...ECRIFri, 13 Sep 2019 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-oilman-magazine-the-trouble-with-oil-price-predictionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-oilman-magazine-the-trouble-with-oil-price-predictionsPredicting oil prices is notoriously difficult because oil prices reflect both supply and demand dynamics. Of course, supply issues garner the lion’s share of the media’s attention – often around geopolitical shocks – and are inherently unpredictable. Nevertheless, in reality, the demand side of the equation dominates sustained swings in oil price inflation. Having studied such cyclical dynamic...ECRIThu, 12 Sep 2019 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-where-is-japan-headed-nexthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-where-is-japan-headed-nextJapan is facing a crosscurrent of cyclical and non-cyclical developments that will impact their growth trajectory.Covered in this report: - Is Japan headed for a recession?- Deep dive into our array of Japanese cycle indexes- Analysis of the growth outlook in the context of recent monetary and fiscal policy development- Reviewing the "pyrrhic" victory for AbenomicsClick here to review our recen...ECRIWed, 11 Sep 2019 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/hiring-cooled-in-august-the-latest-in-a-long-line-of-data-indicating-trump-s-trade-war-is-starting-to-bitehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/hiring-cooled-in-august-the-latest-in-a-long-line-of-data-indicating-trump-s-trade-war-is-starting-to-biteHiring cooled in August, the latest in a long line of data released this summer that indicates President Trump’s trade war is starting to bite into an economy that could be on the verge of entering a rough patch.The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday, below expectations of 160,000 job gains. The numbers were padded in part because the government hired a ...ECRIFri, 06 Sep 2019 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 143.2 as the growth rate fell further to -2.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 06 Sep 2019 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-job-growth-prospects-dimhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-job-growth-prospects-dimOn mobile, click here to watch.According to our research, the consumer is likely to become more wobbly than most expect.ECRI’s is all about the timing of turning points. January 2019 saw the cyclical peak in jobs growth, and it is far from over. Both nonfarm payrolls and the household survey year-over-year growth are in cyclical downturns. While there’s been lots of celebration about the suppos...ECRIThu, 05 Sep 2019 09:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-upside-and-downside-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-upside-and-downside-risksUnderstanding the durable cyclical relationship between capitalized profits and stock prices informs risk management today.This report discusses the following:- Stock prices and capitalized profits in bull and bear markets- Evolution of volatility- Equity risk premium and its key determinants- Measures of equity valuationClick here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on ...ECRIWed, 04 Sep 2019 14:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-notes-interview-update-outlook-china-us-central-bank-failures-recession-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-notes-interview-update-outlook-china-us-central-bank-failures-recession-risksLakshman joins Nejra Cehic and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance on Friday, August 30th.China’s “rust belt’ problemThe Chinese cyclical slowdown continues, as they shore up their “rust belt.” Interview clip here: https://t.co/YrVuj4rQFa pic.twitter.com/qNvk9TRxC0— Lakshman Achuthan August 30, 2019  Download the updated chart, with comments, here.The ongoing downturns in U.S. economic growth a...ECRISun, 01 Sep 2019 08:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-surveillance-interview-with-tom-keene-worsening-u-s-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-surveillance-interview-with-tom-keene-worsening-u-s-slowdownECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with Nejra Cehic and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance about the ongoing downturns in U.S. economic growth and inflation.ECRIFri, 30 Aug 2019 13:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-surveillance-podcast-with-tom-keenehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-surveillance-podcast-with-tom-keeneECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast to discuss how we would still be in a global slowdown without the U.S.-China trade war. ECRIFri, 30 Aug 2019 11:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's On the Move, Friday, August 30 between 12PM - 1PM ET.ECRIFri, 30 Aug 2019 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-4Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 143.1 as the growth rate fell to -2.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle...ECRIFri, 30 Aug 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-chinese-cyclical-slowdown-rust-belthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-chinese-cyclical-slowdown-rust-beltThe prime mover of the “Chinese miracle” has been its industrial sector, so declining industrial production in multiple rust belt provinces is a serious matter. This weakness in recent years has been exacerbated by the current global industrial slowdown that predated the trade war, which is also hurting global growth.  In Q1 2019, there was much hype around China’s trillion-dollar stimulus supp...ECRIFri, 30 Aug 2019 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-inflation-cycle-fed-recession-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-inflation-cycle-fed-recession-risksTopics covered:- ECRI's outlook for U.S. growth, inflation and also jobs growth- The Fed- Trade War and Fed policyECRIThu, 29 Aug 2019 15:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-the-exchangehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-the-exchangeECRIThu, 29 Aug 2019 12:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-inflation-eurozone-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-inflation-eurozone-chinaThis report updates ECRI's full array of international leading indexes, with special attention to:- German Manufacturing and Services- Global inflation- Eurozone and Chinese developmentsOur analysis also delves into central bank "Grand Experiments" that seem to have failed, and what comes next.Click here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please c...ECRITue, 27 Aug 2019 14:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 143.8 while the growth rate decreased to -1.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 23 Aug 2019 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-variety-how-an-economic-downturn-could-ravage-hollywoodhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-variety-how-an-economic-downturn-could-ravage-hollywoodTrade-war fears, stock market volatility and, most recently, bond market signals that point to a pending recession are rattling investors, igniting concerns that another devastating downturn may be just around the corner. As those worries reverberate all the way from Wall Street to Hollywood, the entertainment industry is in for an unsettling reminder of the level of damage a recession can infl...ECRITue, 20 Aug 2019 11:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-employment-consumer-and-policy-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-employment-consumer-and-policy-outlooksMarkets have become more volatile as they grapple with the implications of lower interest rates even as revival hopes persist. This report includes:- Updates to ECRI's full array of leading indexes for the U.S. economy- Analysis of the employment cycle in relation to the business cycle- Additional insights regarding our consumer spending outlook- Analysis of evolving monetary policy prospects C...ECRIMon, 19 Aug 2019 14:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.0 while the growth rate declined to -0.5%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 16 Aug 2019 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-manufacturing-cycles-rulehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-manufacturing-cycles-ruleOur approach enables us to monitor cycles in the services, construction and manufacturing sectors separately, while also seeing how all the moving parts fit together.By dint of this multidimensional framework, we are able to observe the impact of the manufacturing sector on the overall economy.Additionally covered in this report: - The relationship between manufacturing cycles and recessions- U...ECRIWed, 14 Aug 2019 14:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-recession-risk-rate-cuts-and-the-future-inflation-gaugehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-recession-risk-rate-cuts-and-the-future-inflation-gaugeWith the recent yield curve inversion, the markets are again racing toward a U.S. recession forecast.Back in April, at the annual Minsky Conference, our presentation was titled, Probing Powell’s Patience. ECRI’s argument was that that the Fed, based on this historical record of our U.S. Future Inflation Gauge , had missed their chance to preemptively take recession risk off the table. Revisitin...ECRIWed, 14 Aug 2019 13:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/usiness-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/usiness-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 145.7 while the growth rate slipped to 0.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 09 Aug 2019 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-polish-miracle-has-its-pricehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-polish-miracle-has-its-priceProviding a key window into eastern Europe, ECRI's Polish indexes expand our international coverage to 22 countries. Covered in this report: - Cyclical outlook for Polish economic growth, based on the Polish Long Leading and Coincident Indexes- A review of Poland in the global supply chain - Fresh look at Polish export prospects - Analysis of what's new to come for Polish manufacturing sector g...ECRIWed, 07 Aug 2019 14:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 145.9 while the growth rate ticked up to 0.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 02 Aug 2019 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-pmis-have-not-bottomed-yethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-pmis-have-not-bottomed-yetThe manufacturing PMIs are the holy grail of indicators for many market participants. ECRI’s U.S. Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs anticipates cyclical shifts in the ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs for the U.S.The USLIMPMI, which typically leads cyclical turns in both PMIs by a couple quarters, turned down in early 2017 , and the PMIs followed suit in 2018 . With the USLIMPMI falling back ...ECRIThu, 01 Aug 2019 11:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-elephant-in-the-room-forcing-the-fed-rate-cuthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-elephant-in-the-room-forcing-the-fed-rate-cutMany in the consensus regard the widely-expected Fed rate cut as unnecessary. Yet, the elephant in the room remains the inflation cycle downturn that leaves the Fed with little choice but to cut rates. This is because Fed officials believe they need to cut rates now to boost inflation while economic growth is still good. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated, they wish to avoid the trap...ECRIWed, 31 Jul 2019 08:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-industrial-growth-inflation-incl-ez-and-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-industrial-growth-inflation-incl-ez-and-chinaThis report addresses the question: will a cyclical revival in global industrial growth still begin this year?- Global Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs- Global Leading Manufacturing Index- Global Industrial Growth Short Leading IndexOur client report also delves into the outlook for imports growth around the world amidst our updated outlooks for China, the Eurozone and the U.S., where policy...ECRIFri, 26 Jul 2019 14:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-6Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.3 while the growth rate edged up to 0.0%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 26 Jul 2019 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-predicting-the-ism-and-markit-pmishttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-predicting-the-ism-and-markit-pmisThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on July 12, 2019 -The manufacturing PMIs have become the holy grail of indicators for many market participants. ECRI’s U.S. Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs anticipates cyclical shifts in the ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs for the U.S.The USLIMPMI, which typically leads cyclical turns in both PMIs by a couple quarters, turned do...ECRIWed, 24 Jul 2019 11:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 145.9 while the growth rate increased to -0.7%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 19 Jul 2019 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-industrial-consumer-and-inflation-outlookshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-industrial-consumer-and-inflation-outlooksRevival hopes have again taken hold, based on the perception of a strong jobs market underpinning consumer spending and inflation. But, is this backed up by the data?This report includes: - Updates to ECRI's full array of leading indexes for the U.S. economy- Analysis of the industrial sector, with a look at ECRI's U.S. Leading and Coincident Manufacturing Indexes- An update to our consumer spe...ECRIThu, 18 Jul 2019 14:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-csx-earnings-and-productivityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-csx-earnings-and-productivityECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance's On the Move with Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro and Emily McCormick.Interview excerpts below:Excerpt from today's interview, watch here: https://t.co/AoIFf0o0Cm via @YahooFinance— Lakshman Achuthan July 17, 2019Highlight: @businesscycle on Congress going after Big Tech: “You want big successful companies, you want the value, you want the upside, but ho...ECRIWed, 17 Jul 2019 16:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-interview-using-data-to-answer-the-recession-questionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-interview-using-data-to-answer-the-recession-questionLakshman Achuthan reveals his most potent data on global economic cycles in this interview with Raoul Pal. Filmed on July 9, 2019 in New York.Data never lies. Watch @RaoulGMI get answers ECRI COO Lakshman Achuthan on the recession question. Recession Watch continues on Real Vision: https://t.co/RIj1nk8Naa pic.twitter.com/p2WWx3cbJV— Real Vision July 17, 2019Please see below for public statement...ECRIWed, 17 Jul 2019 13:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's On the Move, Wednesday, July 17 between 12PM and 1PM ET.ECRIWed, 17 Jul 2019 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-interview-china-and-g7-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-interview-china-and-g7-inflationKey takeaways:-    Global industrial growth downturn callECRI made the call in late 2017, before the trade war began, and before the Global PMIs turned down, because ECRI’s indexes lead the PMI. Two conclusions follow – one is that the slowdown is about much more than the trade war, as Chairman Powell finally acknowledged in his congressional testimony last week, and two, because our leading in...ECRITue, 16 Jul 2019 09:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Monday, July 15 at 7:10 PM ET.ECRIMon, 15 Jul 2019 18:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-5Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.2 while the growth rate rose to -1.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 12 Jul 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-outlook-for-pmis-chinese-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-outlook-for-pmis-chinese-exportsThis report includes: - Updates to Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs- Updates to U.S. Short Leading Index- Updates to U.S. Leading & Coincident Employment IndexesClick here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our client services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIFri, 12 Jul 2019 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-earning-growth-outlook-plungeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-interview-earning-growth-outlook-plungesOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss what’s at stake for earnings as Q2 reporting gets underway. ECRIThu, 11 Jul 2019 10:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-chinese-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-updated-chinese-outlookThis report includes: - China's domestic growth outlook following the late 2018 and early 2019 stimulus efforts- Analysis of Chinese exports' impact on overall Chinese economic growth- China and the ongoing deglobilization trendClick here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIWed, 10 Jul 2019 15:51:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-interview-what-will-the-fed-dohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-interview-what-will-the-fed-doLakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss the odds of a Fed rate cut in light of the cyclical outlook for growth, and the separate inflation cycle. ECRIMon, 08 Jul 2019 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-monthly-jobs-surveys-may-overshoot-gainshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-monthly-jobs-surveys-may-overshoot-gainsListen to Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Bloomberg Radio discussing ECRI's latest opinion piece on the U.S. jobs growth outlook.ECRIMon, 08 Jul 2019 16:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell, today at 4:30PM ET.ECRIMon, 08 Jul 2019 15:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-p-l-with-paul-sweeney-and-lisa-abramowiczhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-p-l-with-paul-sweeney-and-lisa-abramowiczECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Radio P&L with Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz on Monday, July 8, at 11:45 AM .ECRIMon, 08 Jul 2019 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-south-china-morning-post-us-china-feud-is-accelerating-the-biggest-shift-in-trade-since-the-cold-war-away-from-globalisationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-south-china-morning-post-us-china-feud-is-accelerating-the-biggest-shift-in-trade-since-the-cold-war-away-from-globalisationFrom an office in Tijuana, Mexico, Roberto Durazo has been capitalising on one of the biggest shifts in global trade since the end of the cold war.His company, Ivemsa, has been helping dozens of companies move their factories out of China and other parts of Asia and into Mexico to make goods to be sold domestically and in the United States. Operating in what is known as the “shelter industry”, ...ECRISat, 06 Jul 2019 09:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-great-headlines-mislead-on-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-great-headlines-mislead-on-jobsAs the U.S. election cycle gets underway, expect much debate over just how strong the economy really is after last week marking its longest uninterrupted expansion in America’s history. After all, the jobless rate is near a half-century low and the S&P 500 Index is close to a record high. The bond market, though, is still signaling that the Federal Reserve will soon be forced to ease monetary p...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2019 12:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-the-myth-of-the-tight-u-s-labor-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-the-myth-of-the-tight-u-s-labor-marketAs the U.S. election cycle gets underway, expect much debate over just how strong the economy really is after becoming the longest uninterrupted expansion in America’s history. After all, the jobless rate is at a half-century low and the S&P 500 Index is at a record high. The bond market, though, is signaling that the Federal Reserve will soon be forced to ease monetary policy to shore up the e...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2019 11:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 145.3 while the growth rate increased to -1.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2019 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-int-l-future-inflation-gauges-business-investment-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-int-l-future-inflation-gauges-business-investment-prospectsThis report includes: - Updates to the array of International Future Inflation Gauges- Updates to our cyclical outlook for business investment prospectsClick here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2019 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-investment-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-investment-outlookThe volatile energy sector has become an increasingly important driver of cyclical swings in business investment -- a double-edged sword intensifying both upturns and downturns in investment. With this in mind, this report updates our outlook for overall business investment -- a key driver of the business cycle. This report includes: - Analysis of energy sector contributions to cyclical swings ...ECRIWed, 03 Jul 2019 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-notes-from-spainhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-notes-from-spainI’ve been working from Madrid and Barcelona this week, and as always I am struck by how stylish Spanish women are. Everyone, young and old, seems to have the latest platform sandal or the trendiest summer dress, which is no surprise, because Spain is where fast fashion was invented. Every female Swamp Notes reader will understand what that means. But for the benefit of our male readership, fast...ECRIMon, 01 Jul 2019 16:44:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-de-globalization-diagnosis-predated-trade-warhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-de-globalization-diagnosis-predated-trade-warDe-globalization is deepening, and its roots run much deeper than the trade war. In fact, it was early 2016 when we explained that de-globalization had been going on for years. While ECRI does not offer policy prescriptions, de-globalization has important implications, and reports from sources ranging from the Council on Foreign Relations to the Bank for International Settlements have since ech...ECRIFri, 28 Jun 2019 10:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 144.4 as the growth rate edged down to -2.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 28 Jun 2019 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-g7-inflation-negative-yields-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-g7-inflation-negative-yields-japanThis month's report features an important update of our G7 Future Inflation Gauge, and our cyclical outlook for the Japanese business cycle.Additional topics covered:- An update on Eurozone cyclical growth prospects- Analysis of major central bank policy amid plunging yields- How China’s cyclical outlook fits into the global growth and inflation pictureClick here to review our recent real-time ...ECRIWed, 26 Jun 2019 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 144.6 as the growth rate slipped to -2.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 21 Jun 2019 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-should-the-fed-cut-rates-in-junehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-should-the-fed-cut-rates-in-juneBased on ECRI’s research on the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge , the Fed should have started a rate cut cycle last September. This is because, when the Fed started rate cut cycles as soon as the USFIG signaled inflation cycle downturns, we’ve had soft landings, like in the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. But when their rate cut cycles lagged those inflation cycle downturn signals, the economy has gone in...ECRISat, 15 Jun 2019 09:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-closing-bell-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell, today at 4:45PM ET.ECRIFri, 14 Jun 2019 15:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 144.4 while its growth rate decreased to -1.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 14 Jun 2019 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researc-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-interview-us-inflation-cycle-and-more-china-stimulushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researc-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-interview-us-inflation-cycle-and-more-china-stimulusKey takeaways from interview:- U.S inflation cycle downturn is not transitory, and is separate from, but consistent with, the slowdown in U.S. economic growth.- Trade war developments – while generally negative – obscure the underlying cyclical downturn in global industrial growth that started first.- Chinese growth has stabilized some, after a lot of stimulus, but there is an ongoing industria...ECRIMon, 10 Jun 2019 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Sunday, June 9 at 7:10 PM ET.ECRISun, 09 Jun 2019 18:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-inflation-the-fed-and-the-fighttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-inflation-the-fed-and-the-figOn mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, the inflation outlook, the Fed and the bond market.Both the Fed and the bond market have been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn, and the plunge in the market’s inflation expectations tells you that’s the key reason yields have plummete...ECRIFri, 07 Jun 2019 17:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.1 while its growth rate fell to -1.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate ...ECRIFri, 07 Jun 2019 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researc-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-podcast-the-late-cycle-myth-morehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researc-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-podcast-the-late-cycle-myth-moreErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcomed ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss the following:Interview starts at 17:00 minute mark.    • Are we actually in late cycle dynamics?    • Concept of late cycle: what is the cycle and how does the cycle work    • Business cycle vs. Inflation cycle     • Using cyclical indicators to monitor where we are in the cycle    • G...ECRIFri, 31 May 2019 15:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 145.3 while its growth rate edged down to -0.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 31 May 2019 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researc-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-interview-disinflation-is-the-elephant-in-the-roomhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researc-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-interview-disinflation-is-the-elephant-in-the-room Highlight: @businesscycle’s Lakshman Achuthan on the economy: “I don’t think there’s a recession imminent, but there’s also no clear signs — at least in the US — of a strong revival ahead, which had been kind of the exception after the Fed pivoted earlier this year.” pic.twitter.com/qHlkQzUIWz— Yahoo Finance May 30, 2019Most analysts – and the Fed – don’t understand that inflation cycles are d...ECRIFri, 31 May 2019 10:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-disinflation-the-elephant-in-the-roomhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-disinflation-the-elephant-in-the-roomMost analysts –and the Fed – don’t understand that inflation cycles are different from business cycles. Understanding this key reality allowed our clients to be properly positioned for the drop in bond yields. ECRI’s co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, who created the original leading index of the business cycle over half a century ago, developed the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge to predict those sepa...ECRIThu, 30 May 2019 13:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-move-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's On the Move, Thursday, May 30 between 11:00 AM and 12 PM ET.ECRIThu, 30 May 2019 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 145.8 while its growth rate ticked down to 0.0%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate...ECRIFri, 24 May 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-s-demise-greatly-exaggeratedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-s-demise-greatly-exaggeratedTo download the full presentation with detailed notes click here.At the recent 2019 Strategic Investment Conference ECRI explained why the business cycle’s demise has been greatly exaggerated.Our presentation focused on the proposition that the Fed has eliminated business cycles through quantitative easing and unconventional monetary policy.Conclusions:• The business cycle is alive and well, de...ECRIMon, 20 May 2019 16:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 146.7 as its growth rate decreased to 0.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 17 May 2019 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/2019-mauldin-economics-strategic-investment-conference-lakshman-achuthan-ecri-business-cycle-recession-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/2019-mauldin-economics-strategic-investment-conference-lakshman-achuthan-ecri-business-cycle-recession-recoveryOn May 14, Lakshman Achuthan will present at the 2019 Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference in Dallas, TX.ECRITue, 14 May 2019 15:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 146.9 while the growth rate ticked down to 0.8%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 10 May 2019 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-las-vegas-nevadahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-las-vegas-nevadaECRI's Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji will be meeting with clients in Las Vegas on May 6.ECRIMon, 06 May 2019 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 146.4 while the growth rate ticked down to 1.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growt...ECRIFri, 03 May 2019 10:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interview-industrial-commodities-and-the-canadian-looniehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interview-industrial-commodities-and-the-canadian-loonieECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN Bloomberg TV to discuss global growth prospects, commodity price inflation and the Canadian loonie.According to our cyclical research, the upturn in commodity price inflation is far from convincing.Overall industrial commodity price growth had gone substantially negative late last year, as ECRI had predicted. Since then, exchange-traded commodity price growth...ECRIFri, 26 Apr 2019 14:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 147.0 while the growth rate ticked up to 1.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth r...ECRIFri, 26 Apr 2019 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-market-optimism-and-hard-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-market-optimism-and-hard-dataOn mobile, click here to view video interview.Lakshman Achuthan recently spoke with CNBC about ECRI’s description of the U.S. slowdown including hard data on business and consumer activity.The risk-on rally is predicated on a reacceleration in growth starting within a couple of months. But, aside from risk asset pricing there’s little objective evidence in the hard data to support that view. Ch...ECRIThu, 25 Apr 2019 08:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-inflation-downturn-signals-and-rate-cutshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-inflation-downturn-signals-and-rate-cutsAn excerpt from our “Probing Powell’s Patience" talk given at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference, April 17, 2019. –According to The Wall Street Journal, “policy makers appear to have pivoted in time to prevent” a recession. This is an assumption worth examining. These charts show the past half dozen Fed rate hike cycles in the context of the USFIG. Three of them ended in recession...ECRIMon, 22 Apr 2019 16:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-toronto-canadahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-toronto-canadaECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Toronto from April 22 - 23.ECRIMon, 22 Apr 2019 14:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-2019-minsky-conference-probing-powell-s-patiencehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-2019-minsky-conference-probing-powell-s-patienceWith ECRI’s focus on cycle risk management, we have a solid read on where we are in the economic growth and inflation cycles.Click here to download the full presentation, including notes.Since last year’s Minsky Conference, the policy landscape has certainly shifted.President Trump is proclaiming “the greatest economy in history,” but he’s also demanding a 50 basis point rate cut since there’s ...ECRIThu, 18 Apr 2019 11:44:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 148.6 and its growth rate increased to 1.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate...ECRIThu, 18 Apr 2019 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bard-college-levy-institute-28-annual-minsky-conference-ecri-achuthan-business-cycles-recession-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bard-college-levy-institute-28-annual-minsky-conference-ecri-achuthan-business-cycles-recession-recoveryOn April 17, Lakshman Achuthan will present at the Levy Institute's 28th Annual Minsky Conference. Discussion will review confusion around structural vs. cyclical, and ECRI's current outlook. Also, good Q&A opportunity. ECRIWed, 17 Apr 2019 09:44:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-us-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-us-weekly-leading-index-increasesClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."___________________________________ ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 148.1 and its growth rate rose to 0.2%.ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 21 count...ECRIFri, 12 Apr 2019 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-components-of-job-growth-weakened-in-marchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-components-of-job-growth-weakened-in-marchThe more cyclical component of jobs growth remains under pressure, with year-over-year nonfarm jobs growth excluding education and health falling to an 11-month low, whereas yoy growth in education and health rose to a 19-month high .ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Real Vision on March 13th to discuss our 2018 slowdown call, ECRI’s research process and insights, and updates to our public outloo...ECRIFri, 05 Apr 2019 13:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.2 and its growth rate increased to -0.7%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cy...ECRIFri, 05 Apr 2019 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-recession-recovery-track-record-full-real-vision-interview-slowdown-call-process-current-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-recession-recovery-track-record-full-real-vision-interview-slowdown-call-process-current-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Real Vision on March 13th to discuss our 2018 slowdown call, ECRI’s research process and insights, and updates to our public outlook.Please see below for statements ECRI has made publicly about our cyclical outlook:The canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has keeled over. Related #ECRI leading index and interview here: https://t.co/Rktmtz3vXC pic.twitter.com/OxqI...ECRISat, 30 Mar 2019 08:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-4Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.8 and its growth rate rose to -1.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cy...ECRIFri, 29 Mar 2019 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-gdp-data-tells-you-nothing-about-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-gdp-data-tells-you-nothing-about-recession-riskReal-time GDP data can be highly misleading around business cycle turning points. This is especially true in the lead-up to recessions as shown by the 2001 and 2007 experience , which helps place the latest GDP performance in perspective.On the verge of the 2001 recession, in February 2001, the real-time data showed GDP growth declining to 1.1% . But with the Fed cutting rates, the S&P 500 saw ...ECRIWed, 27 Mar 2019 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-don-t-get-greedy-and-don-t-try-to-time-the-top-of-this-tired-10-year-bull-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-don-t-get-greedy-and-don-t-try-to-time-the-top-of-this-tired-10-year-bull-marketBatten down the hatches. The late-cycle lift from Donald Trump’s $1 trillion fiscal stimulus is fading before China comes close to touching bottom.We have hit a global vacuum. If semiconductor sales are the canary in the coal mine for the world economy, be careful. Korean shipments fell 25pc in February year-on-year. “That canary has completely keeled over. Collapse comes to mind,” said Lakshma...ECRITue, 26 Mar 2019 11:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.6 and its growth rate edged up to -2.3%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rat...ECRIFri, 22 Mar 2019 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-recession-recovery-insightshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-real-vision-recession-recovery-insightsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Real Vision on March 13th to discuss our 2018 slowdown call, the ECRI process, Simple Math, and share an update on our outlook.Full interview here.Lakshman Achuthan joins us back on Real Vision following up on his April 2018 appearance, where he predicted a slowdown in US growth. Curious for an update? Watch now to find out if he believes this slowdown will conti...ECRIWed, 20 Mar 2019 15:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-sun-valley-idaho-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-sun-valley-idaho-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Sun Valley, Idaho from March 20 - 22.ECRIWed, 20 Mar 2019 13:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-semiconductor-demandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-semiconductor-demandAs ECRI shared with CNBC, the canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has already keeled over and – according to our leading index – there’s no resurrection in sight.Mobile users can view the interview here.The chart shows that global semiconductor shipment growth has collapsed, plunging over 20% since August, and its growth rate has tanked to a ten-year low.  Contact us and we will email you a PD...ECRISat, 16 Mar 2019 08:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 145.3 and its growth rate increased to -2.9%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cy...ECRIFri, 15 Mar 2019 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-when-canada-catches-a-cold-so-does-the-u-shttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-when-canada-catches-a-cold-so-does-the-u-sThe U.S. economic slowdown taking shape follows a Canadian downturn that began earlier. More recently, the Canadian growth slowdown has gathered steam, with quarterly annualized real GDP growth ending 2018 at less than half of one percent. Almost immediately, the Bank of Canada mirrored the Fed’s January about-face – reversing its January assertion that “the policy interest rate will need to ri...ECRITue, 12 Mar 2019 09:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fox-business-oped-recession-or-not-it-s-out-of-trump-s-handshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fox-business-oped-recession-or-not-it-s-out-of-trump-s-handsDuring a speech at CPAC last week, President Trump blamed a strong U.S. dollar and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve for hurting the economy. Meanwhile, most "experts" opining on where economic growth is headed say the risk of recession depends on his actions. The reality is that, just like everyone else, the president has to bow to the power of the business cycle.The reason that so ma...ECRIMon, 11 Mar 2019 09:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 145.1 and its growth rate rose to -3.7%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cy...ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2019 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-brexit-german-taz-europehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-brexit-german-taz-europetaz: Herr Achuthan, Sie untersuchen langfristige Wirtschaftszyklen. Donald Trump droht in alle Richtungen mit Zöllen, und trotzdem scheint die Weltwirtschaft relativ stabil. Ist das wegen oder trotz Trump?Lakshman Achuthan: Wirtschaftszyklen sind in markt­orientierten Ökonomien – und das ist fast die ganze Welt – viel größer und stärker als irgendwelche Politiker. Wir hatten einen globalen Aufs...ECRIWed, 06 Mar 2019 09:43:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-movehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-on-the-moveECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's On the Move, Friday, March 1 between 11:00 AM and 12 PM ET.ECRIFri, 01 Mar 2019 10:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 144.9 and its growth rate edged up to -4.2%.                      ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cyc...ECRIFri, 01 Mar 2019 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-underpinnings-home-prices-giving-wayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-underpinnings-home-prices-giving-wayU.S. home prices growth has been slowing precipitously – completely in line with ECRI’s earlier analysis. We’re now at the point where, as home price inflation slackens further, there is a real risk that prices will actually fall. This concern is underscored by recent moves in ECRI’s U.S. Leading Home Price Index , which was prescient in spotting this downturn in home price inflation well befor...ECRITue, 26 Feb 2019 08:44:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-interview-trump-xi-trade-china-outlook-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-interview-trump-xi-trade-china-outlook-fedLakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI’s public outlook.ECRITue, 26 Feb 2019 07:37:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Monday, February 25 at 5:10 PM ET.ECRIMon, 25 Feb 2019 16:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 144.2 while its growth rate edged down to -4.7%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ...ECRIFri, 22 Feb 2019 10:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-fed-pivot-and-ecri-leading-indexeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-fed-pivot-and-ecri-leading-indexesLakshman Achuthan on CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss ECRI’s public outlook, including: - Bullard’s recognition of the U.S. slowdown is in line with ECRI’s earlier slowdown call- The Fed’s U-turn doesn’t inoculate the economy against recession- The elephant in the room remains the U.S. cyclical slowdown- Comments on ECRI’s Chinese Leading IndexesSee recent ECRI posts on the topics covered in toda...ECRIThu, 21 Feb 2019 16:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-interview-closing-bell-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-interview-closing-bell-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell today at 3PM ET.ECRIThu, 21 Feb 2019 14:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-the-feds-first-do-no-harm-policy-is-harmful-recession-rateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-the-feds-first-do-no-harm-policy-is-harmful-recession-ratesThe sharp “risk-on” rally in financial markets this year strongly suggests that the U.S. economy has been inoculated against recession risk by the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot. This reasoning, however, ignores two notable concerns. First, the cyclical slowdown in growth that precipitated the plunge in stocks in the fourth quarter isn't about to end. Second, everyone seems to have forgotten th...ECRITue, 19 Feb 2019 07:37:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipsClick here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 143.6 as its growth rate ticked down to -4.3%.                     ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate...ECRIFri, 15 Feb 2019 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 144.2 as its growth rate edged up to -4.0%.                    ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate c...ECRIFri, 08 Feb 2019 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-indexes-lead-global-pmihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-indexes-lead-global-pmiAt ECRI, we understand that, to manage cyclical risk, it is helpful to have a sequence of long, short and coincident indicators to build conviction about where we are in a cycle. This is why we have spent decades developing an array of international long leading indexes.The global industrial cycle is a good example: ECRI’s sequential leading indexes helped us correctly forecast the current slow...ECRIWed, 06 Feb 2019 11:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interview-china-slowing-hits-commodity-exportershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interview-china-slowing-hits-commodity-exportersECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN Bloomberg TV to discuss the Chinese outlook and commodity price inflation prospects.Back in a July 2018 BNN interview we made the correct -- out-of-consensus -- call that exchange traded commodity inflation would decline.Oil price inflation diverges from that of other sensitive industrial commodities, as non-exchange traded prices sink further. #ECRI Watch in...ECRITue, 05 Feb 2019 17:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bnn-bloomberg-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on BNN Bloomberg's Commodities on Tuesday, February 5 at 11:40AM.ECRITue, 05 Feb 2019 11:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-silence-of-the-hawkshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-silence-of-the-hawksThe Fed’s about-face last month came as no surprise to ECRI. In fact, we had been pointing out that the Fed was on a collision course with the economic cycle for months, telling Bloomberg in October that the expected rate hike path in 2019 was “not going to happen.”Clip from earlier today. U.S. slowdown is now a fact, not a forecast. https://t.co/FBbHadWmwp— Lakshman Achuthan October 23, 2018La...ECRIFri, 01 Feb 2019 15:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.0, but it’s smoothed growth rate recovered to -4.3%.                ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth ra...ECRIFri, 01 Feb 2019 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-cycles-the-fed-and-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-yahoo-finance-interview-cycles-the-fed-and-recession-riskECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance ahead of the Fed announcement on monetary policy. He discusses ECRI's cycle work, including recession risk, and explains why the Fed will have a hard time continuing to "normalize" policy.Mobile users can view the interview here.Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.For information on ECRI professional services please contact us....ECRIWed, 30 Jan 2019 16:56:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-interview-turning-points-in-global-growth-market-risk-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-interview-turning-points-in-global-growth-market-risk-recessionECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Asia TV to discuss the global economic outlook, including China, and the importance of turning points in economic growth and inflation to market risk.China is a key global economy and ECRI was the first to develop leading indexes for the overall economy, the industrial sector, exports, home price inflation and overall inflation.Our leading indexes corre...ECRIMon, 28 Jan 2019 08:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-daybreak-asia-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Sunday, January 27 at 5:10 PM ET.ECRISun, 27 Jan 2019 16:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-recession-cnbc-interview-updating-stock-price-corrections-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-recession-cnbc-interview-updating-stock-price-corrections-callECRI’s Achuthan discusses how markets remain focused on the “news of the day,” which has been dominated by twists and turns in the trade war and shifts in Fed dovishness. For the most part this ignores the elephant in the room – the economic cycle.Mobile users can view the interview here.Five months ago on CNBC’s Trading Nation ECRI warned of the heightened risk of stock price corrections, beca...ECRISat, 26 Jan 2019 08:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-upClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 145.8 as WLI growth increased to -5.3%.       The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longe...ECRIFri, 25 Jan 2019 10:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-risesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 145.1 as WLI growth ticked up to -6.2%.On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click the "Full Site" link to download the data.                  The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some w...ECRIFri, 18 Jan 2019 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-vailhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-vailECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Vail, CO from January 17 - 18.ECRIThu, 17 Jan 2019 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-weekly-leading-index-fed-markets-growth-inflation-reuters-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-weekly-leading-index-fed-markets-growth-inflation-reuters-interviewWatch ECRI’s Achuthan and Reuters’ Fred Katayama discuss the Fed’s December blink and risks of stock price corrections. Additional topics include a wider discussion on the ECRI business cycle framework and leading indicator approach, as well as updates to ECRI’s growth and inflation outlooks. Click here to review ECRI’s track record, including client report excerpts.For information on ECRI prof...ECRIThu, 17 Jan 2019 08:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-slowdown-playing-out-in-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-slowdown-playing-out-in-chinaThis week China reported a drop in exports that surprised the consensus. In contrast, over the summer, ECRI’s leading indexes were flagging a worsening outlook for Chinese exports. Download July 2018 International Essentials report excerpt here.The exports growth weakness evident in the latest data is part of the larger global industrial growth slowdown that ECRI flagged in the spring of 2018, ...ECRITue, 15 Jan 2019 14:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-less-money-more-problems-consumer-debt-and-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-less-money-more-problems-consumer-debt-and-spendingFull version of this report excerpt released to ECRI clients on Nov. 7, 2018 -Despite the latest Fed minutes indicating “ongoing gains in real disposable personal income,” consumers increasingly rely on credit to make ends meet. With credit usage rising, higher interest rates and payments could snuff out consumption growth more quickly than many expect. Because monetary policy affects the econo...ECRIMon, 14 Jan 2019 08:46:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasesClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 143.4 as WLI growth fell further to -6.5%, a 363-week low.            The WLI is just one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, ...ECRIFri, 11 Jan 2019 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-colliding-with-the-economic-cycle-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-colliding-with-the-economic-cycle-againIn Atlanta today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a course correction, citing 2016 as a recent example. "No one knows whether this year will be like 2016," he said. "But what I do know is that we will be prepared to adjust policy quickly and flexibly … should that be appropriate. … And particularly with the muted inflation readings that we've seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch t...ECRIFri, 04 Jan 2019 15:47:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-againClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 142.4 as WLI growth declined further to -5.3%, approaching a seven-year low.The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes,...ECRIFri, 04 Jan 2019 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-nears-7-year-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-nears-7-year-lowThe ECRI Weekly Leading Index growth rate, which has stayed in a decisive downturn since early 2018, has already fallen to its lowest reading in nearly four years – a 199-week low.That decline reaffirms its message that there’s no end in sight for the U.S. slowdown. This has been the prescient forecast of the ECRI index for the better part of a year, including last spring and summer, when stock...ECRIThu, 03 Jan 2019 09:59:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-joc-industrial-price-index-ipi-pmi-commodity-continues-to-drophttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-joc-industrial-price-index-ipi-pmi-commodity-continues-to-dropRecent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index * reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon.In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrial growth outlook, with a chart of our IPI and crude oil prices underscoring that there was no upturn in sight....ECRIWed, 02 Jan 2019 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-joc-ipi-industrial-price-index-commodity-price-inflation-oilhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-business-cycle-lakshman-achuthan-joc-ipi-industrial-price-index-commodity-price-inflation-oilBack in April, crude oil prices were soaring, and were already higher than at any time since 2014. But it wasn’t just oil. “Dr. Copper” – the price of copper, whose fabled prescience had led analysts to award it a “Ph.D. in Economics” – was also ramping up, approaching its highest level since 2014. So had nickel prices. And aluminum prices hadn’t been that high since the summer of 2011. With th...ECRIMon, 31 Dec 2018 16:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-2018-2019-recession-recovery-track-recordhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-2018-2019-recession-recovery-track-record In 2018 the U.S. entered the fourth growth rate cycle downturn since 2010, which was critical to understand since every GRC downturn since has seen at least one correction of 10% or more.Highlights of ECRI 2018 cycle calls follow below, or download our recent track record PDF. To enquire about risk management services, set up a call or meeting.The Fall of 2018 Saw Markets Pricing in Cycle Down...ECRIMon, 31 Dec 2018 15:38:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-recovery-lakshman-achuthan-download-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallsClick here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 143.5 as WLI growth decreased to -4.4%, a 199-week low.The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longe...ECRIFri, 28 Dec 2018 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-closing-bell-eyes-wide-open-but-the-fed-is-just-staring-at-the-starshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-closing-bell-eyes-wide-open-but-the-fed-is-just-staring-at-the-starsLakshman Achuthan on CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss ECRI’s public outlook.See recent ECRI posts on the topics covered in today's interview for more details.- Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck- Cycle Turns & Equity Corrections- A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear MarketClick here to review ECRI’s recent track record. For more information on ECRI professional services please con...ECRIFri, 21 Dec 2018 17:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-interview-closing-bell-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-interview-closing-bell-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell today, December 21 at 4:10pm.ECRIFri, 21 Dec 2018 15:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.7, while WLI growth remained unchanged at -3.9%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has been made public:- read ECRI's latest op-ed "A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Mar...ECRIFri, 21 Dec 2018 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-growing-economy-can-be-mauled-by-a-bear-market-in-stockshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-growing-economy-can-be-mauled-by-a-bear-market-in-stocksThe risk of a bear market in stocks is greater than most believe. That’s because even a growing economy can be mauled by a bear market. Yet, this truth is buried under the drumbeat of declarations ruling out a recession — and therefore a bear market.In the course of the recent stock-price correction, the economy’s apparent strength was repeatedly held up as a reason to shrug off market volatili...ECRIThu, 20 Dec 2018 07:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/lakshman-achuthan-ecri-leading-index-cnbc-india-rbi-mpc-minuteshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/lakshman-achuthan-ecri-leading-index-cnbc-india-rbi-mpc-minutesAn excerpt from December's meeting minutes of the RBI's MPC:“39. …Meanwhile, growth in the Indian Leading Index, a predictor of the direction of Indian economic growth maintained by the Economic Cycle Research Institute , New York, has risen lately, indicating some improvement in economic growth prospects.40. Downside risks to growth include lower sowing in the rabi season, financialvolatility,...ECRIWed, 19 Dec 2018 09:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-credt-markets-signal-recession-in-early-2019http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-business-cycle-credt-markets-signal-recession-in-early-2019Surging borrowing costs for companies in the United States and Europe threaten recession within months and resemble events leading up to the global credit ‘heart attack’ in August 2007.Risk spreads on American high-yield debt have jumped 130 basis points to 446 since early October. The weakest CCC junk grades have jumped 280 points to 1,233.Credit experts say this sudden stress is the delayed f...ECRITue, 18 Dec 2018 19:09:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cycle-turns-equity-correctionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cycle-turns-equity-correctionsThe S&P 500 has now entered correction territory.Even though stock prices hit new highs in September, with ECRI’s earlier growth rate cycle downturn call still intact, the risk of a fresh correction remained elevated. This was the focus of ECRI’s CNBC interview in late August when we shared our research that, in each GRC downturn since the financial crisis, there’s been least one 10-20% equity ...ECRIMon, 17 Dec 2018 09:39:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-londonhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-londonECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in London from December 17 - 18.ECRIMon, 17 Dec 2018 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.2, while WLI growth ticked up to -3.9%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has been made public:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on "Global Slowdown,Trade W...ECRIFri, 14 Dec 2018 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-what-the-fed-is-getting-wronghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-what-the-fed-is-getting-wrongA veteran economic forecaster is worried the Federal Reserve and Wall Street are looking at inflation all wrong.According to Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan, they’re largely missing a critical economic trend that shows inflation is in a downturn.“Inflation is cyclical, and I don’t think everybody really understands that — in particular, the Fed and a lot of market...ECRIThu, 13 Dec 2018 15:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-inflation-cycles-down-as-fed-stays-starstruckhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-inflation-cycles-down-as-fed-stays-starstruckThe market’s been grappling with two issues – trade tensions and the Fed for a while now. ECRI’s cycle work speaks directly to the Fed debate. Most economists, including those at the Fed, don’t understand that inflation is cyclical. So they end up using various excuses to explain the current inflation downturn that they didn’t see coming, having been transfixed by a 3.7% jobless rate and 3.1% w...ECRIThu, 13 Dec 2018 09:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-inflation-is-cyclicalhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-trading-nation-inflation-is-cyclicalFor a while now, the market’s been grappling with two issues – trade tensions and the Fed. ECRI’s cycle work speaks directly to the Fed debate. We just got November PPI and CPI data, and yields on both two and 10-year treasuries – have moved up noticeably from their recent lows.  What the Fed, and many in the market, don’t get is that inflation is cyclical, and that the inflation cycle doesn’t ...ECRIWed, 12 Dec 2018 16:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Wednesday, December 12.ECRIWed, 12 Dec 2018 13:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-global-slowdown-trade-war-and-the-fed-s-belated-blinkhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-global-slowdown-trade-war-and-the-fed-s-belated-blinkLakshman Achuthan on CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss ECRI’s public outlook Growth Rate Cycle and Inflation Cycle DownturnsThe market has been going down because, until yesterday, the Fed looked set on multiple rate hikes in the face of a stealth slowdown and an inflation downturn that ECRI called months ago. From ECRI’s perspective, what’s really driving things are these cycle downturns in econo...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2018 17:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-interview-closing-bell-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-tv-interview-closing-bell-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell today, December 7 at 4:00pm.ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2018 15:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.2, while WLI growth edges down to -4.1%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns.For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has made public:- read ECRI's "Falling Growth in Hours Worked"- read ECRI's "Oil Price Plunge Foretold ...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2018 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-falling-growth-in-hours-workedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-falling-growth-in-hours-workedSlowdown Comes Into Clear Focus The slowdown that ECRI flagged back in the spring has come into clear focus. In November, year-over-year growth in aggregate weekly hours for production and nonsupervisory workers fell for the fourth straight month to a 13-month low in the goods sector , while easing for the third straight month to a ten-month low in the services sector .In fact, yoy aggregate se...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2018 10:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-joc-ecri-industrial-price-indexhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-joc-ecri-industrial-price-indexThe plunge in oil prices, which dropped below $50 this week, blindsided many businesses and investors. But the inevitable decline was foreshadowed months ago by a downturn in commodity prices, as measured by ECRI’s Industrial Price Index which was previously known as the JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index*. According to the IPI, industrial commodity price inflation turned negative in mid-2018 , th...ECRIFri, 30 Nov 2018 10:31:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.1, while WLI growth slipped to -4.0%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has made public:- read ECRI's "Construction Crumbling" - watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discuss equity co...ECRIFri, 30 Nov 2018 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-time-to-worry-about-germanyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-time-to-worry-about-germanyThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Nov. 14, 2018 -The contraction in German GDP is nothing to be complacent about. Given our cyclical approach, we do not look just at how GDP changes from one quarter to another next, which can be distorted by exogenous factors, but its trend over many quarters and the broader cyclical outlook based on our leading indexes. Indeed, th...ECRIWed, 28 Nov 2018 11:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.9, while WLI growth edged down to -3.7%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has made public:- read ECRI's "Construction Crumbling" - watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discuss equity...ECRIWed, 21 Nov 2018 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.7, while WLI growth slipped to -3.0%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has made public:- read ECRI's "Construction Crumbling" - watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discuss equity co...ECRIFri, 16 Nov 2018 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-turning-point-housing-construction-crumblinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-turning-point-housing-construction-crumblingA cyclical downturn in construction sector growth is underway, and set to intensify. We know this from monitoring leading indexes specific to major sectors of the economy, whose distinct cyclical swings can precede those in the overall economy. Notably, growth in ECRI’s U.S. Leading Construction Index has tumbled to a 2½-year low . Following the earlier downturn in USLCI growth, U.S. Coincident...ECRIMon, 12 Nov 2018 08:33:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 145.0, while WLI growth decreased to -2.6%.          The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns. For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to information that ECRI has made public:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on CNBCFor a quick glance at the WLI’...ECRIFri, 09 Nov 2018 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-updating-market-correction-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-updating-market-correction-callECRI returned to CNBC’s Trading Nation to update our late August warning that the risk of a stock market correction was high.A trading chart suggests stocks face a heightened risk of a 10-20% correction  https://t.co/CiGU1Avinw— Trading Nation September 1, 2018Many think that in the post-GFC world it’s all about extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus, so cycles are old hat and investors don...ECRIThu, 08 Nov 2018 09:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Wednesday, November 7.ECRIWed, 07 Nov 2018 13:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-commodities-markets-must-decide-which-history-to-believehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-commodities-markets-must-decide-which-history-to-believeOil is sliding, with West Texas Intermediate Crude entering a bear market on an intraday basis Tuesday by dropping more than 20 percent to $61.31 from its high last month of $76.90 on Oct. 3. The decline in global crude prices is largely credited to lessening concerns about tight supplies, with American stockpiles expanding for almost two straight months and the U.S. government granting waivers...ECRIWed, 07 Nov 2018 11:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 146.1, while WLI growth fell to -1.4%.          For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to other ECRI information that has been made public:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a interview on Bloomberg TV - read ECRI's current "Damned Lies and Statistics" article in Mauldin Economics For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, pl...ECRIFri, 02 Nov 2018 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-track-record-least-educated-have-more-jobs-than-everhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-track-record-least-educated-have-more-jobs-than-everA robust job market has lifted the Employment/Population ratio for the 25-and-over to 62.3% – the highest since February 2009 . But this strength is driven mainly by the tightening labor markets for the least-educated. Specifically, the improvement has been spearheaded by the tenth of the population without high school diplomas, whose E/P ratio has spurted to 44.9%, the highest on record .But f...ECRIFri, 02 Nov 2018 09:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-track-record-new-growth-rate-cycle-new-dates-determined-for-germany-and-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-track-record-new-growth-rate-cycle-new-dates-determined-for-germany-and-japanECRI has determined that November 2017 is the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Germany and April 2017 is the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Japan. Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or sof...ECRIThu, 01 Nov 2018 16:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-eurozone-growth-downturn-inflation-upturn-no-surprisehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-eurozone-growth-downturn-inflation-upturn-no-surpriseRecent data releases complicate an already-awkward situation for the European Central Bank , with Q3 2018 GDP growth coming in below expectations at 0.2% and inflation climbing to its highest reading since 2012.Yet, this is another example of a real-time ECRI forecast coming to pass.In its July International Focus report, based on its full array of proprietary leading indexes, ECRI warned clien...ECRIThu, 01 Nov 2018 08:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-why-trump-may-be-right-about-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-why-trump-may-be-right-about-the-fedA growing number of economists and investment professionals are beginning to agree with [the President]. To be sure, they are still in the minority, but their voices are increasingly being heard as the U.S. stock market surrenders all of its 2018 gains.“Conveniently, there is a long list of usual suspects to explain the recent market turmoil,” writes Michael Arone, chief investment strategist f...ECRISat, 27 Oct 2018 07:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-debt-alarm-ringinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-debt-alarm-ringingIs debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.”Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash available yet. Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a better job may be a good idea. Borrowing money to finance your vacation? Probably not.Unfortunately, many people, businesses, and g...ECRIFri, 26 Oct 2018 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 147.0, while WLI growth decreased to -0.4%.          For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to other ECRI information that has been made public:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg TV - read ECRI's current "Damned Lies and Statistics" article in Mauldin Economics - listen to ECRI's Lakshman Achut...ECRIFri, 26 Oct 2018 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-is-the-u-s-economy-slowinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-is-the-u-s-economy-slowingAs you probably already know, the stock market has been having problems of late.Let me add another thing you can worry about.According to Refinitiv Thomson Reuters, 80.7 percent of the 140 companies that have recently reported quarterly results have beaten the estimates of Wall Street analysts. And only 10.7 percent have seen earnings miss expectations.That is great news considering that histor...ECRIThu, 25 Oct 2018 10:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-economic-cycles-and-stock-price-correctionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-economic-cycles-and-stock-price-correctionsEven though stock prices hit new highs in September, with ECRI’s earlier growth rate cycle downturn call still intact, the risk of a second correction in 2018 remained elevated. This was the focus of ECRI’s CNBC interview in late August when we shared our research that, in each GRC downturn since the financial crisis, there’s been least one 10-20% equity price correction.In February, during the...ECRIWed, 24 Oct 2018 16:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-damned-lies-and-statisticshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-damned-lies-and-statisticsWhy read? Because headline data like GDP are historically poor indicators of cyclical risk. There’s been an air of euphoria about the economy – a sense that the boom times will keep going – with GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4%. Yet, the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. We don’t believe in forecasting by...ECRITue, 23 Oct 2018 10:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-interview-u-s-not-immune-to-global-slowdown-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-interview-u-s-not-immune-to-global-slowdown-chinaBloomberg Daybreak Asia speaks with ECRI’s Achuthan about ECRI’s U.S. slowdown call, including housing and inflation downturn calls, and some China related details.Achuthan also explains that a global cyclical slowdown was already underway before trade sanctions arrived , delivering a one-two punch.ECRITue, 23 Oct 2018 10:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Monday, October 22 at 7:10 PM ET.ECRIMon, 22 Oct 2018 18:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-opinion-radio-interview-ecri-s-home-price-downturn-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-opinion-radio-interview-ecri-s-home-price-downturn-callListen to ECRI's Achuthan talk about our home price downturn call from the Bloomberg Opinion article "Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags."ECRIMon, 22 Oct 2018 11:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-opinion-radio-interview-housing-market-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-opinion-radio-interview-housing-market-outlookListen on Bloomberg Opinion Radio, ECRI's Achuthan talk about the cyclical outlook of the housing market.ECRIMon, 22 Oct 2018 11:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-taking-a-break-or-rolling-overhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-taking-a-break-or-rolling-overECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points.  The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.Back in July 2018, ECRI warned clients in the USCO Essentials report that “Inflation pressures continue to simmer but, looking ahead, there is a hint of cooling.” ECRI...ECRIFri, 19 Oct 2018 10:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallsECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 147.4, while WLI growth slipped to 0.1%.          For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to other ECRI information that has been made public:- listen to ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a podcast interview with Grant's- read ECRI's current Bloomberg Opinion piece For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:    ...ECRIFri, 19 Oct 2018 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-grant-s-on-ecri-s-inflation-downturn-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-grant-s-on-ecri-s-inflation-downturn-callOn Thursday, October 11, Lakshman Achuthan joined Jim Grant’s Current Yield Podcast to discuss ECRI’s:- Contrarian U.S. inflation downturn call - Home price growth downturn call - View on Emerging Markets, including China- Cyclical FrameworkGrant’s has highlighted ECRI’s out of consensus views before:August 2016 – U.S. inflation upturn callSeptember 2009 – March 2009 U.S. recovery call intact, ...ECRITue, 16 Oct 2018 11:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-worst-home-price-outlook-since-2009http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-worst-home-price-outlook-since-2009ECRI’s home price downturn call is based on the growth rate of our U.S. Leading Home Price Index , which has now nosedived to its worst reading since 2009.The USLHPI – which is specifically designed to predict home price cycles, spotting directional shifts well before conventional methods – is telling us that a home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. That’s because the objective ...ECRIMon, 15 Oct 2018 14:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-housing-market-is-raising-serious-red-flagshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-housing-market-is-raising-serious-red-flagsNote: More details on our U.S. Leading Home Price Index are available here.Despite a robust U.S. economy, at least as measured by gross domestic product, real home price growth is locked in a cyclical downturn. If that's not bad enough, it will likely get worse based on the same approach and factors that correctly flagged the housing bust – in real time – in early 2006. Home prices are highly c...ECRIMon, 15 Oct 2018 14:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 148.6 from 149.1, while WLI growth ticked up to 0.6% from 0.5%.         For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview with CNBCFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:      Click here to review ECRI’s recent...ECRIFri, 12 Oct 2018 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-a-red-flashing-light-in-the-housing-market-could-spell-trouble-for-the-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-a-red-flashing-light-in-the-housing-market-could-spell-trouble-for-the-economyThe U.S. economy is growing at a healthy pace, the labor market is its tightest in years and consumer confidence hasn't been this high since 2000.But one warning sign of trouble could be flashing in the housing market, according to forecaster Lakshman Achuthan."Our leading home price index has made a downturn that it hasn't made in a long time," Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Resear...ECRIMon, 08 Oct 2018 09:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-us-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-us-weekly-leading-index-increasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 149.1 from 148.4, while WLI growth edged up to 0.5% from 0.3%.         For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview with CNBCFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:      Click here to review ECRI’s recent t...ECRIFri, 05 Oct 2018 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-home-price-growth-downturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-home-price-growth-downturnECRI monitors many cycles within the economy, and a recent development is that home price inflation is flashing red. Growth in our U.S. Leading Home Price Index, which nailed the 2006 housing bust in real-time, is now at its worst reading since 2009, when we were about to pull out of the 2007-09 recession .In other words, home price growth is set to fall in a sustained cyclical downturn. This i...ECRIWed, 03 Oct 2018 16:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Wednesday, October 3.ECRIWed, 03 Oct 2018 13:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-4ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased up to 148.5 from 148.2, while WLI growth ticked up to 0.4% from 0.1%.         For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with BloombergFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:      Click here to review ECRI’s recent track rec...ECRIFri, 28 Sep 2018 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-timing-is-everything-liquidity-cut-amid-global-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-timing-is-everything-liquidity-cut-amid-global-slowdownThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Aug. 28, 2018 -Central bank balance sheets have shrunk by over half-a-trillion dollars since March. This decrease in global liquidity – in the face of a global slowdown – raises the risk of policy mistakes much higher than is commonly assumed. The unprecedented expansion of major central bank balance sheets in the wake of the Globa...ECRIWed, 26 Sep 2018 13:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-business-investment-prospects-dim-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-business-investment-prospects-dim-1The full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Aug. 17, 2018 -Investment growth prospects are actually waning, despite the widespread belief that they are in an upswing. While exogenous positive shocks like tax cuts can provide a short-term boost to investment spending, investment growth is mostly driven by endogenous cyclical forces that can be monitored using ECRI’s cyclical ...ECRIMon, 24 Sep 2018 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-7ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 148.3 from 148.0, while WLI growth edged up to 0.2% from 0.0%.         For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with BloombergFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:      Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record....ECRIFri, 21 Sep 2018 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-client-meeting-las-vegashttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-client-meeting-las-vegasECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Las Vegas, NV from September 18 - 19.ECRITue, 18 Sep 2018 12:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 148.0 from 148.3, while the WLI growth ticked up to 0.0% from -0.1%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in an interview with BloombergFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:     Click here to review ECRI’s rece...ECRIFri, 14 Sep 2018 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-reuters-interview-jobs-report-wage-growth-trade-warhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-businesscycle-reuters-interview-jobs-report-wage-growth-trade-warWatch Lakshman Achuthan discuss today's jobs report, including a chart of average hourly earnings growth, showing that since March 2018, growth in total pay is flat but growth in total hours – which reflects economic growth – is down. Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2018 14:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 148.2 from 147.3, while the WLI growth was virtually unchanged at -0.2%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview with BloombergFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:     Click here to review EC...ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2018 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-on-em-vs-u-s-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-ecri-on-em-vs-u-s-growthWatch ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan’s interview with Bloomberg TV discussing the global industrial slowdown, emerging market developments, and how the stealth U.S. slowdown plays into trade negotiations. Fed policy and windows of vulnerability are also discussed in the context of ECRI’s cyclical framework.ECRITue, 04 Sep 2018 09:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-tom-keenehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-radio-interview-tom-keeneECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene on Tuesday, September 4, at 7:15 AM .ECRITue, 04 Sep 2018 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keenehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keeneECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene on Tuesday, September 4, at 6:00 AM . ECRITue, 04 Sep 2018 05:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-yield-curve-recession-weekly-leading-index-wli-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-yield-curve-recession-weekly-leading-index-wli-business-cycleThis is a confession of sorts. for most of my adult life, I have observed and thought about the yield curve far more than any normal person should. What had been a private obsession has suddenly become an object of intense scrutiny and discussion in the financial world, including in many quarters that previously had paid little notice to this indicator.To review, the yield curve traces the yiel...ECRIFri, 31 Aug 2018 20:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-managing-the-risk-of-equity-correctionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-managing-the-risk-of-equity-correctionsThe market may begin looking different after Labor Day.Even though stocks just completed a banner month, the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Lakshman Achuthan is waving a warning flag.Achuthan believes there's a heightened risk of a sell-off that could wipe out the recent all-time highs. He used a special chart of the S&P 500 over time on CNBC's "Trading Nation" to make his case."What's uni...ECRIFri, 31 Aug 2018 14:44:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-interview-trading-nationECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Friday, August 31.ECRIFri, 31 Aug 2018 13:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchanged-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchanged-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index virtually unchanged at 147.3, while the WLI growth rate slipped to -0.2%, a 127-week low.        For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:     Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.ECRIFri, 31 Aug 2018 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 147.3 from 147.4, while the WLI growth rate decreased to 0.0%, a 126-week low.        For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:     Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.ECRIFri, 24 Aug 2018 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 147.4 from 147.9, while the WLI growth rate slowed further to 0.3%, a 47-week low.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a talk with CNBCFor a closer look at the WLI’s perfor...ECRIFri, 17 Aug 2018 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-risks-amid-global-trade-warhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cyclical-risks-amid-global-trade-warThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Aug. 8, 2018 -Trade tensions remain heightened between the U.S. and Eurozone, even though a full-blown trade war has been averted – for now. Consequently, it is important to understand how exposed the Eurozone is to U.S. trade disruptions, as well as the near-term outlook for Eurozone real export growth.As it is a relatively open e...ECRIThu, 16 Aug 2018 08:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-6ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 147.8 from 147.7, while the WLI growth rate slowed to 0.6%, a 45-week low.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a talk with CNBCFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, pl...ECRIFri, 10 Aug 2018 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchanged-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchanged-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at 147.8, while the WLI growth rate ticked up to 1.0% from 0.8%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a talk with CNBCFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance, p...ECRIFri, 03 Aug 2018 10:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-outsized-gains-for-least-educated-limits-wage-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-outsized-gains-for-least-educated-limits-wage-growthThe robust job market is almost universally acknowledged. Sure enough, the headline Employment/Population ratio has now risen to 60.5% – its highest reading since January 2009 . But appearances can be deceiving. In fact, the revival has been heavily skewed toward the tenth of the population without high school diplomas. Specifically, the E/P ratio for those without high school diplomas, which h...ECRIFri, 03 Aug 2018 10:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-trump-gdp-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-trump-gdp-business-cycleU.S. economic growth jumped in the second quarter, a boost for President Trump and Republicans as they seek to make a strong economy a key part of their campaign message to voters heading into November’s midterm elections. But economists cautioned that the higher growth is probably a blip.The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.1 percent from April to June, the fastest growth since the ...ECRIFri, 27 Jul 2018 11:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 147.8, while the WLI growth rate slowed further to 0.8%, a 43-week low.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in latest interview with CNBC- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan's discussion with BNN BloombergFor a closer look at the WLI’s performance,...ECRIFri, 27 Jul 2018 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fracking-boom-masks-manufacturing-sector-weaknesshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-fracking-boom-masks-manufacturing-sector-weaknessIndustrial production growth reached a 47-month high in June , but a confluence of factors is masking underlying weakness. When headline economic data are being distorted by large swings in underlying components and exogenous shocks, ECRI’s forecasting framework cuts through the noise to reveal the true direction of growth.Recently, headline IP has been skewed by two factors. First, after a fir...ECRITue, 24 Jul 2018 09:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 148.3, while the WLI growth rate slowed further to 0.9%, a 42-week low.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview with CNBC- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in latest interview with Bloomberg- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan's ...ECRIFri, 20 Jul 2018 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-stealth-slowdown-unfoldinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-stealth-slowdown-unfoldingAs the chart shows, real personal income and consumer spending growth are both in cyclical downturns.Contrary to the notion of a “strengthening” economy, consumer spending growth has fallen to a 4 ¼-year low, as personal income growth continues to undershoot spending growth. The consumer -- which makes up about 70% of the economy -- is getting hit with a six-year highs in inflation, so real wag...ECRITue, 17 Jul 2018 09:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Monday, July 16.ECRIMon, 16 Jul 2018 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-5ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 148.5 from 147.0, while the WLI growth rate ticked down to 1.5% from 1.7%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview with Bloomberg- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in latest discussion with BNN BloombergFor a closer look at the WLI’s...ECRIFri, 13 Jul 2018 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-jobs-report-gdp-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-jobs-report-gdp-and-the-fedWatch Lakshman Achuthan discuss today's jobs report, including a chart of the employment/population showing that structural damage from the Great Recession has not healed for many. Average hourly earnings is also discussed.Additional topics include industrial commodities, GDP, the Fed and implications of a trade war.  Click here to review ECRI’s track record, including client report excerpts.Fo...ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2018 14:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-5ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, July 6 at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2018 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 147.4 from 148.1, while the WLI growth rate edged down to 2.2% from 2.8%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview with Bloomberg- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent discussion with BNN Bloomberg- watch ECRI's Lakshman...ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2018 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-trade-war-and-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-trade-war-and-recession-riskWatch Lakshman Achuthan discuss global trade, the Fed, and industrial commodities and how these things interact with recession risk in the full Bloomberg TV interview.Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2018 09:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Thursday, July 5 at 6:10 PM ET.ECRIThu, 05 Jul 2018 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-oil-diverges-from-other-industrial-commoditieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-oil-diverges-from-other-industrial-commoditiesThe current downturn in global industrial growth has caught many people off guard because they focus on exchange-traded commodities only. Doing so made it easier to think that demand wasn’t slowing because surging oil, and for a while, primary metals prices had camouflaged what was really happening.ECRI’s insight was that the rise in exchange-traded prices was not about demand, which we knew wa...ECRITue, 03 Jul 2018 14:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bnn-bloomberg-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bnn-bloomberg-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on BNN Bloomberg's Commodities on Tuesday, July 3 at 11:20 AM.ECRITue, 03 Jul 2018 10:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallsECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 148.2 from 150.1, while the WLI growth rate slipped to 2.8% from 3.1%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent talk with CNBC- read ECRI's "Signaling Slowdown: The Little-Watched Commodities That Could"For a closer look at the WLI’s performa...ECRIFri, 29 Jun 2018 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-signaling-slowdown-the-little-watched-commodities-that-couldhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-signaling-slowdown-the-little-watched-commodities-that-couldThe latest oil price spike may turn out to be a head-fake, because the economy is already slowing. While the oil cartel can try to fix the supply of oil, it can’t really control the demand side, which is dominated by the economic cycle.This is clear to us at ECRI because of our enduring focus on cyclical relationships and, in this case, sensitive industrial material prices, including oil. We’ve...ECRIThu, 28 Jun 2018 08:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-unusual-divergence-in-commodities-spotlights-global-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-cnbc-unusual-divergence-in-commodities-spotlights-global-slowdownThe U.S. economy is bounding along but economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan sees evidence of a global slowdown in an unlikely place: Demand for cow hides.Achuthan, co-founder of Economic Cycle Research Institute, says hides and other non-exchange-traded sensitive industrial materials such as rubber are often the first item on the production line and their price movements are a barometer for ec...ECRITue, 26 Jun 2018 13:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Friday, June 22.ECRIFri, 22 Jun 2018 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-4ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 150.1 from 149.2, while the WLI growth rate increased to 3.1% from 2.7%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with CNBC- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a closer...ECRIFri, 22 Jun 2018 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-monetary-policy-minutes-include-ecrihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-monetary-policy-minutes-include-ecriThe Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday released minutes of the meeting of Monetary Policy Committee held between June 4 and June 6, 2018.The RBI's MPC unanimously voted to raise interest rate by 25 basis points at the meeting…which was attended by all the members.Pami Dua reasoned, "The upside risks to inflation include geopolitical risks associated with crude oil prices, increase in other glob...ECRIWed, 20 Jun 2018 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-4ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 149.3 from 148.7, while the WLI growth rate ticked up to 2.7% from 2.6%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with CNBC- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a c...ECRIFri, 15 Jun 2018 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-behind-the-yield-curve-assessing-the-recession-predictorhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-behind-the-yield-curve-assessing-the-recession-predictorThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on May 25, 2018 -Many people have fun with the old adage that the stock market “has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” Yet, the yield curve is given more respect on this score, even though it has inverted ahead of just six of the last 13 U.S. recessions. Geoffrey Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called the “father of lead...ECRIWed, 13 Jun 2018 10:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index stayed virtually unchanged at 148.7, while the WLI growth rate fell to 2.6% from 3.0%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with CNBC- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a ...ECRIFri, 08 Jun 2018 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 148.7 from 148.5, while WLI growth rate ticked down to 3.0% from 3.5%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk with CNBC- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a clos...ECRIFri, 01 Jun 2018 10:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 148.5 from 148.7, while WLI growth rate slipped to 3.5% from 4.3%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan CNBC interview- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a closer...ECRIFri, 25 May 2018 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-stealth-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-stealth-slowdownEveryone is focused on rising inflation, which has now hit the Fed’s target. So, given the three-handle on the jobless rate, Fed rate hike probabilities have been rising, even as the other major central banks have turned a bit more dovish, pushing up the U.S. Dollar.All of this is consistent with the widespread belief that, even if global growth may be slowing, U.S. economic growth is strong an...ECRITue, 22 May 2018 08:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation on Monday, May 21.ECRIMon, 21 May 2018 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 148.7 from 149.3, while WLI growth edged down to 4.3% from 4.5%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan Bloomberg interview- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a closer ...ECRIFri, 18 May 2018 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 149.3 from 149.9, while WLI growth ticked up to 4.5% from 4.1%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan Bloomberg interview- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"For a closer...ECRIFri, 11 May 2018 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bric-economies-growth-potential-weakenshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bric-economies-growth-potential-weakensAn excerpt from our “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" talk given at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference, April 17, 2018. –We have shown that every G7 country is headed in the wrong direction, with potential GDP growth converging toward 0-1%. An analogous chart for the BRICs shows that they too have potential growth downshifting. The same productivity data is not avail...ECRIThu, 10 May 2018 08:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-report-good-bad-newshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-report-good-bad-newsThis was a good news/bad news jobs report. The good news is that, for the first time this century, the jobless rate has a three handle, so in that sense it’s a tight labor market. The bad news is that it dropped for the wrong reasons, with the household survey showing year-over-year job growth in jobs declining since September, and labor force growth falling back again after a post-tax-cut pop....ECRIFri, 04 May 2018 15:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, May 4th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 04 May 2018 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 150.0 from 150.4, while WLI growth increased to 4.1% from 3.5%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan latest Bloomberg interview- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"- s...ECRIFri, 04 May 2018 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-simple-math-shows-g7-trend-gdp-to-slowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-simple-math-shows-g7-trend-gdp-to-slowAn excerpt from our “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" talk given at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference, April 17, 2018. –With regard to the simple math of demographics and productivity growth, what ails the U.S. ails pretty much everybody.This chart, using similar data as our U.S.-specific analysis, shows the simple math of adding up productivity growth and labor for...ECRIWed, 02 May 2018 08:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-how-to-avoid-being-blindsided-by-the-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-how-to-avoid-being-blindsided-by-the-business-cycleFrom RealVision: “As we all know, the U.S. last suffered a recession in 2009. But did you know that Japan has slipped into recession four times since then? Or that Australia hasn’t had a recession in 27 years – since 1991? Many investors spend a lot of time and effort trying to predict when the next recession will hit. For good reason – a recession is generally the single biggest risk to your s...ECRITue, 01 May 2018 09:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-a-cyclical-leading-index-of-global-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-a-cyclical-leading-index-of-global-growthAn excerpt from our “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" talk given at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference, April 17, 2018. –ECRI’s measure of globalization is the difference between the growth rates of world trade and GDP, because globalization implies faster growth in trade than in GDP. This measure experiences cyclical swings associated with cycles in global growth be...ECRIMon, 30 Apr 2018 08:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 150.4 from 148.9, while WLI growth ticked up to 3.5% from 3.2%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan latest Bloomberg interview- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural"  For...ECRIFri, 27 Apr 2018 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-de-globalization-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-de-globalization-and-the-fedBuilding on our earlier slowdown call, the incoming data has made the market begin to acknowledge that the economy is not as strong as expected – that’s the critical backdrop for the market jitters.Regarding the rise in yields, it’s really about inflation fears. The 2-year, which is already around 2½%, reflects the Fed’s evident resolve to keep hiking rates through next year as they react to th...ECRIThu, 26 Apr 2018 09:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Wednesday, April 25 at 6:10 PM ET.ECRIWed, 25 Apr 2018 17:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-globalization-has-been-in-reverse-for-yearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-globalization-has-been-in-reverse-for-yearsAn excerpt from our “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" talk given at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference, April 17, 2018. –ECRI’s measure of globalization is the difference between the growth rates of world trade and GDP, because globalization implies faster growth in trade than in GDP. It shows that globalization has both structural and cyclical components.   Structur...ECRIWed, 25 Apr 2018 09:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-new-interview-with-real-visionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-new-interview-with-real-visionECRI's Achuthan joined Real Vision on April 6, 2018 to discuss ECRI's analytical approach and how today, our research shows the fourth slowdown in U.S. growth since the financial crisis .View the clip on YouTube.Real Vision is offering free access for non-subscribers, so both the full ECRI interview, and other interviews in Real Vision's archive can be watched in their entirety.Please click her...ECRIWed, 25 Apr 2018 08:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-updated-the-simple-math-behind-u-s-potential-gdp-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-updated-the-simple-math-behind-u-s-potential-gdp-growthAn excerpt from our “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" talk given at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference, April 17, 2018. -Let’s revisit the basic building blocks of economic growth – productivity growth and labor force growth – I showed this chart last year, and just updated it. The bottom blue line shows potential labor force growth, which the Congressional Budget Of...ECRITue, 24 Apr 2018 09:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-are-we-normalizinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-are-we-normalizingClick here to download the full presentation, including notes.With ECRI’s focus on economic cycles, we have a solid read on where we are in the business cycle. And, when we strip out the cyclical, what’s left is largely structural, allowing us to distinguish between economic developments that are cyclical and structural.This week ECRI presented “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" at...ECRIFri, 20 Apr 2018 11:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 148.9 from 147.8, while WLI growth edged down to 3.2% from 3.5%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read our Levy Economics Institute Minsky Conference presentation "The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" - watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan's latest CNBC interview- read ECR...ECRIFri, 20 Apr 2018 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bard-college-levy-institute-27-annual-minsky-conference-ecri-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bard-college-levy-institute-27-annual-minsky-conference-ecri-achuthanOn April 17, Lakshman Achuthan will present at the Levy Institute's 27th Annual Minsky Conference.ECRITue, 17 Apr 2018 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-5ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 148.2 from 148.0, while WLI growth decreased to 3.9% from 4.5%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a CNBC interview- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interviewFor a cl...ECRIFri, 13 Apr 2018 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-in-a-trade-war-size-mattershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-in-a-trade-war-size-mattersThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Apr 4, 2018 -Our cyclical research offers nuanced insights into the probable impact of current events, including what is transpiring with global trade. Separately, knowing what movements in trade are likely cyclical, we are better able to discern the structural conditions that make some countries more vulnerable to a trade war.Righ...ECRIThu, 12 Apr 2018 15:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-italian-recovery-faces-unexpected-headwindhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-italian-recovery-faces-unexpected-headwindThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Mar. 29, 2018 -The Italian election results shined a light on the economy’s imbalances, as certain areas of its economy are weaker than others. Identifying key sectors of weakness and strength within an economy is critical for a clear yet nuanced outlook, which is why ECRI uses a wide array of specialized leading indexes for key ec...ECRITue, 10 Apr 2018 08:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-dog-that-didnt-bark-global-slowdown-unemploymenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-dog-that-didnt-bark-global-slowdown-unemploymentECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss the latest jobs data, and slowing U.S. economic growth. Key points covered include:Building on our earlier slowdown call, the incoming data has made analysts begin to acknowledge that the economy is not as strong as they had expected – that’s the critical backdrop for the market jitters.Could a full-blown trade war be recessionary? It all depends ...ECRIMon, 09 Apr 2018 08:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nation-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation with host Brian Sullivan -- Friday, April 6.ECRIFri, 06 Apr 2018 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 148.0 from 149.6, while WLI growth slipped to 4.5% from 5.1%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interview- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index "F...ECRIFri, 06 Apr 2018 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-us-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-us-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 149.8 from 149.6, while WLI growth edged down to 5.2% from 5.4%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interview- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index...ECRIThu, 29 Mar 2018 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 149.5 from 149.7, while WLI growth ticked down to 5.5% from 5.6%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interview- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Inde...ECRIFri, 23 Mar 2018 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-lowflation-demons-bedevil-boj-planshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-lowflation-demons-bedevil-boj-plansThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Mar. 7, 2018 -Through our understanding of the cyclical drivers of the economy, we are able to distinguish between shorter-term cyclical movements and longer-term structural changes. While a string of positive Japanese consumer price index growth figures has convinced some that structural lowflation has been vanquished, and even em...ECRIThu, 22 Mar 2018 08:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-sun-valley-idahohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-sun-valley-idahoECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Sun Valley, Idaho from March 20 - 23.ECRITue, 20 Mar 2018 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-understanding-india-s-resilience-despite-multiple-shockshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-understanding-india-s-resilience-despite-multiple-shocksThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Feb. 14, 2018 -Asked in the early 1990s how the global economy would evolve in the decades ahead, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore – “the father of leading indicators” – responded that it would probably experience more cycles, as the number of market-oriented economies grew. This is one reason why ECRI has been developing country-...ECRITue, 20 Mar 2018 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-risk-of-mistaking-cyclical-for-structuralhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-risk-of-mistaking-cyclical-for-structuralWith ECRI’s focus on economic cycles, we have a solid read on where we are in the business cycle. And, when we strip out the cyclical, what’s left is largely structural, allowing us to distinguish between economic developments that are cyclical and structural.This week, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 27th Ann...ECRIMon, 19 Mar 2018 08:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 149.7 from 149.3, while WLI growth ticked down to 5.6% from 5.8%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a Bloomberg interview- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a CNBC interview- read ...ECRIFri, 16 Mar 2018 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, March 9th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2018 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-global-economy-s-wile-e-coyote-momenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-the-global-economy-s-wile-e-coyote-momentOur prediction last year of a global growth downturn was based on our 20-Country Long Leading Index, which, in 2016, foresaw the synchronized global growth upturn that the consensus only started to recognize around the spring of 2017.With the synchronized global growth upturn in the rearview mirror, the downturn is no longer a forecast, but is now a fact.The chart below shows that quarter-over-...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2018 10:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 149.3 from 150.3, while WLI growth edged down to 5.7% from 6.9%.        For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent Bloomberg interview- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a CNBC interview- read ECRI's "Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economi...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2018 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobless-rate-consistent-with-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobless-rate-consistent-with-slowdownIn addition to business cycles, at ECRI we have long monitored growth rate cycles, which are defined as alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth. We closely monitor growth rate cycle ups and downs using our proprietary coincident and leading indexes. While we predicted an impending slowdown in U.S. economic growth last year, the consensus is still complacent, in part...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2018 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-on-jobs-and-global-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-on-jobs-and-global-growthThis was a good month-on-month jobs report, with broad-based job gains in February. In and of itself that’s good news.The fly in the ointment is that the unemployment rate didn’t fall.In fact, the jobless has been stuck at 4.1% for five straight months, and the three decimal version has actually been drifting up since October. The market has this story line of strengthening growth in the U.S. a...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2018 09:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-full-interview-on-global-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-full-interview-on-global-slowdownAs is often the case, ECRI has a completely different take on things, because we are laser-focused on cyclical dynamics rather than what some econometric model is saying. The global slowdown we predicted last fall is just starting to show up in research notes from Wall Street.ECRI’s global growth downturn call was based on our 20-Country Long Leading Index, which has an excellent track record. ...ECRITue, 06 Mar 2018 16:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberg-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Monday, March 5 at 6:10 PM ET.ECRIMon, 05 Mar 2018 17:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-excerpt-on-global-growth-and-trade-sanctionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-excerpt-on-global-growth-and-trade-sanctionsECRI's Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV Daybreak Asia to discuss global growth and trade sanctions.Click here to review ECRI’s track record, including member report excerpts.For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.ECRIMon, 05 Mar 2018 11:36:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 150.3 from 149.1, while WLI growth slipped to 6.9% from 7.5%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a CNBC interview- read ECRI's "Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown"- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading In...ECRIFri, 02 Mar 2018 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-japan-s-consumer-spending-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-japan-s-consumer-spending-outlookThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Feb. 9, 2018 -Household consumption plays a major role in the upswings and downswings in economic growth for all developed economies, which is why ECRI’s long leading indexes can also shed light on the outlook for consumer spending. Japan is a case in point, where household consumption accounts for about 55% of GDP, and has a cycli...ECRITue, 27 Feb 2018 08:48:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 149.0 from 149.8, while WLI growth slipped to 7.5% from 8.5%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent CNBC interview- read ECRI's "Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown"- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly L...ECRIFri, 23 Feb 2018 10:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-vail-coloradohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-vail-coloradoECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Vail on February 15 and 16. ECRIFri, 16 Feb 2018 11:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-economic-slowdown-taking-holdhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-economic-slowdown-taking-holdHarlan Levy: How real and how significant are inflation and interest rate fears?Lakshman Achuthan: Coming on top of the realization that the world's central banks, net-net, plan to buy fewer bonds in 2018, the fresh news in recent weeks has been the tax cut and then the budget, both of which have brought deficit concerns to the fore. Given the implications for the international demand and suppl...ECRIFri, 16 Feb 2018 10:39:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-wli-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-wli-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 149.8 from 152.2, while WLI growth ticked down to 8.5% from 8.8%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent CNBC interview- read ECRI's "Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown"- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekl...ECRIFri, 16 Feb 2018 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-consumers-risk-overdosing-on-credithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-consumers-risk-overdosing-on-creditThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Feb. 7, 2018 -Through ECRI’s research, we are able to distinguish between cyclical and structural forces impacting economic growth. Underlying the cyclical weakness evident in the latest retail sales data, one important structural trend that we have observed over the years is that American consumers have become ever more reliant on...ECRIWed, 14 Feb 2018 09:43:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/lakshman-achuthan-ecri-cnbc-2018-cycle-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/lakshman-achuthan-ecri-cnbc-2018-cycle-outlookA Wall Street veteran is going against the market consensus by sharpening his economic slowdown call.The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Lakshman Achuthan is citing troublesome activity brewing in the quality spread between junk bonds and corporate debt. It's suggesting default risks are rising — an ominous signal for the stock market.Achuthan's charts show the difference between junk bond ...ECRITue, 13 Feb 2018 08:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-trading-nationECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Trading Nation with host Brian Sullivan -- Monday Feb. 12.ECRIMon, 12 Feb 2018 15:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-outlook-inflation-growth-wageshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-outlook-inflation-growth-wagesListen to Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Financial Sense Newshour for ECRI's view on the global and U.S. cyclical growth outlook.The cyclical outlook for inflation is also discussed and recent moves in the ECRI Weekly Leading Index are discussed in the context of other ECRI leading indexes.ECRIFri, 09 Feb 2018 15:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 152.2 from 151.6, while WLI growth rose to 8.8%.       For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below for other forward-looking ECRI data shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Up is Down: Jump in AHE Growth Confirms Economic Slowdown"- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index "- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impe...ECRIFri, 09 Feb 2018 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-growth-upturn-running-short-on-fuelhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-global-growth-upturn-running-short-on-fuelThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Jan 26, 2018 -The great expansion of world trade, beginning in the 1990s, created an environment of extensive trade linkages that now are part and parcel of globalized, market-oriented economies. Exports drive globalization, but the cyclical forces that propel trade growth are distinct from those that drive domestic economic growth...ECRITue, 06 Feb 2018 08:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-up-is-down-jump-in-ahe-growth-confirming-economic-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-up-is-down-jump-in-ahe-growth-confirming-economic-slowdownThe original version of this report was released to ECRI clients on April 2014 -Earnings growth has risen for an unfortunate reason: growth in hours has fallen faster than pay growth. The chart below shows income growth slowing, and growth in hours worked slowing even faster. Contrary to popular belief, such a slowdown is not a credible signal of an inflation upturn. And if the jump in wage gro...ECRIFri, 02 Feb 2018 10:41:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 151.6 from 151.5, while WLI growth increased to 7.3% from 5.9%.      For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:- read ECRI's "The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index "- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a...ECRIFri, 02 Feb 2018 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-keeping-it-real-brazilian-exports-stay-stronghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-keeping-it-real-brazilian-exports-stay-strongThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Jan 12, 2018 -ECRI’s array of leading indexes allows us to find pockets of strength – when they exist – within broad economic slowdowns. The Brazilian economy is a case in point.Brazil’s export sector was able to offset broader economic weakness during its brutal three-year recession that began in early 2014. Export growth surged f...ECRIMon, 29 Jan 2018 08:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 151.5 from 150.3, while WLI growth rose to 5.8% from 4.5%.      For more on the cyclical outlook, please see below other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Trump's Tax Cuts Won't Offset the Impending Slowdown"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a current Bloomberg interview. For a closer look at the WLI’s perfo...ECRIFri, 26 Jan 2018 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-trumps-tax-cuts-wont-offset-the-impending-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-trumps-tax-cuts-wont-offset-the-impending-slowdownMarket-oriented economies such as the U.S. are inherently cyclical, and there are warnings of a cyclical slowdown in 2018. Yet this view is at odds with the increasingly optimistic consensus that economic momentum, turbocharged by President Donald Trump's tax cuts, will sustain the upswing throughout the year.The notion that momentum propels economic expansion -- and is therefore a good way to ...ECRIThu, 25 Jan 2018 08:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-outlook-headlineshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-outlook-headlinesThe tone of Davos meetings captures the mood of global movers and shakers. Virtually everyone there is so optimistic about economic growth that the economy doesn't even make the list of their top five concerns.In sharp contrast, ECRI’s long leading indexes point to slowing global growth in 2018, and these are the same leading indexes that nailed the global growth upturn we discussed last year. ...ECRIMon, 22 Jan 2018 08:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloomberghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-bloombergECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak: Australia on Sunday, January 21, at 5:10PM ET.ECRISun, 21 Jan 2018 17:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 150.3 from 147.6, while WLI growth increased to 4.5% from 3.3%.      For more on the cyclical outlook, please see the reports below that also mention other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Key Trade Data Shows Fast-Worsening Deficit"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in the latest Reuters interview. For a closer look at t...ECRIFri, 19 Jan 2018 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 147.6 from 147.1, while WLI growth ticked down to 3.3% from 3.4%.      For more on the cyclical outlook, please see the reports below that also mention other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Key Trade Data Shows Fast-Worsening Deficit"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in the latest Reuters interview. For a closer lo...ECRIFri, 12 Jan 2018 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-key-trade-data-shows-fast-worsening-deficithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-key-trade-data-shows-fast-worsening-deficitThe full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Dec 28, 2017 -With ECRI’s focus on economic cycles, including a large array of specialized leading indexes, we have a solid read on where we are in the business cycle. But our cyclical vantage point also allows us to distinguish between those economic developments that are cyclical, and those that are structural in nature. While we...ECRIWed, 10 Jan 2018 09:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-jobs-report-and-2018-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-jobs-report-and-2018-slowdownReuters interview discussing the December employment report and the likelihood of a “surprise” U.S. economic growth slowdown this year. - Coming off a strong 2017, most everyone is bullish on markets and U.S. economic growth in 2018, but ECRI’s analysis points to slower growth ahead.The chart shows year-over-year GDP growth since 2010.It is easy to see the decelerations in growth that happened ...ECRIFri, 05 Jan 2018 13:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Reuters Trading at Noon to discuss the morning release of the December jobs report, and what it means for economic growth and inflation. ECRIFri, 05 Jan 2018 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 147.4 from 147.3, while WLI growth was nearly unchanged at 3.5%.     For more on the cyclical outlook, please see the reports below that also mention other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:- read ECRI's "Food Fight: Food Prices Weigh on Inflation as FIG Keeps Score"- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead"For...ECRIFri, 05 Jan 2018 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-food-fight-food-prices-weigh-on-inflation-as-fig-keeps-scorehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-food-fight-food-prices-weigh-on-inflation-as-fig-keeps-scoreThe full version of this report was originally released to ECRI clients on Dec 22, 2017 -In contrast to most analysts, we believe that inflation has its own cycle, and while related to cycles in growth, its turning points can be quite different. This is why we first created the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge which served us well in the non-inflationary growth of the 1990s, and during the deflation...ECRIThu, 04 Jan 2018 08:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fracking-the-great-destabilizerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fracking-the-great-destabilizerECRI’s understanding of what causes a recession has long differed from conventional wisdom, which holds that recessions result from unexpected shocks that then propagate through the economy. In contrast, we believe that endogenous cyclical forces periodically open up windows of vulnerability for the economy, and that it’s within such windows of vulnerability that negative shocks can trigger a r...ECRITue, 02 Jan 2018 08:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 147.2 from 146.7, while WLI growth ticked up to 3.5%.For more on the cyclical outlook, please see the reports below that also mention other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Reuters "Trading at Noon"- read ECRI's "The Most Widely-Igno...ECRIFri, 29 Dec 2017 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipsECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 146.5 from 147.5 and WLI growth was unchanged at 3.4%.    For more on the cyclical outlook, please see insights below that includes other forward-looking ECRI data that we've made public:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Reuters "Trading at Noon"- read ECRI's "The Most Widely-Ignored Shif...ECRIFri, 22 Dec 2017 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-longer-term-cyclical-damage-from-brexithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-longer-term-cyclical-damage-from-brexitWe are students of the business cycle because it is part-and-parcel of market-oriented economies, and a cyclical vantage point provides the best opportunity to predict turning points in economic growth. Such analysis, based on ECRI’s U.K. leading indexes, is becoming increasingly important for the post-Brexit U.K. because it is likely to see more frequent journeys into recession in the coming y...ECRIFri, 22 Dec 2017 10:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-most-widely-ignored-change-in-u-s-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-most-widely-ignored-change-in-u-s-economyThe plunge in GDP growth volatility has actually been much more dramatic than the drop in stock market volatility in recent years. And yet, the nosedive in GDP growth volatility has gone mostly unnoticed. ECRI first raised this issue of lower volatility in economic growth a couple years ago, calling it the Greater Moderation, and we believe that it will play a key role in business cycle analysi...ECRITue, 19 Dec 2017 08:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 147.5 from 147.2 and WLI growth increased to 3.5% from 2.9%.    For more on the cyclical outlook, please see insights below that includes other forward-looking ECRI data that we've made public:- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Reuters "Trading at Noon"- read ECRI's "Next Global Growth D...ECRIFri, 15 Dec 2017 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-tell-tale-spreads-confirms-slowdown-aheadhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-tell-tale-spreads-confirms-slowdown-aheadWhen it comes to the economic outlook, the bond market is smarter than the stock market. That Wall Street adage appears to be on the money from a cyclical vantage point, with key indicators in the fixed-income markets independently corroborating slowdown signals from the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s leading indexes.The yield curve is widely considered to be among the most prescient indic...ECRIWed, 13 Dec 2017 09:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-bonds-and-the-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-bonds-and-the-economyECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Reuters “Trading at Noon” to discuss the latest jobs report, the Fed, bonds and 2018 economic growth.See link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.ECRIFri, 08 Dec 2017 15:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, December 8th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 08 Dec 2017 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-risesFor more on the cyclical outlook, please see insights below that includes other forward-looking ECRI data that we've made public:- download ECRI's "China Data Disappoints, As Expected"- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn"- read ECRI's "Why So Many Are Pissed Off"For a closer look at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:  Click here to review ECRI’s track record, incl...ECRIFri, 08 Dec 2017 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-trump-tax-cuts-may-fuel-economic-growth-at-the-right-timehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-trump-tax-cuts-may-fuel-economic-growth-at-the-right-timeThe U.S. economy is about to get an injection of rocket fuel.Many economists have argued that "this is as good as it gets" for U.S. economic growth. But President Trump's $1.5 trillion Tax Cuts and Jobs Act could kick economic growth into high gear and give a further boost to the long, strong stock market rally.Now in the ninth year of an underwhelming recovery, the economy was long held back b...ECRIThu, 07 Dec 2017 11:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-next-global-growth-downturn-will-blindside-mosthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-next-global-growth-downturn-will-blindside-mostIt’s a sure bet that most will be surprised when the next cyclical downturn in growth takes hold. The consensus is notoriously bad at recognizing cyclical turning points because people typically extrapolate recent trends into the future – a surefire way to be blindsided when the economy changes direction. Keeping this in mind, we review the consensus growth outlook for 2018. After starting 2017...ECRIThu, 07 Dec 2017 11:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 146.7 from 146.3, leaving updated WLI growth virtually unchanged at 2.6%.    For more on the cyclical outlook, please see links below for insights from our other forward-looking data that's been made public:- download ECRI's "China Data Disappoints, As Expected"- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn"- read ECRI's "Why So Many Are Pissed...ECRIFri, 01 Dec 2017 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-data-disappoints-as-expectedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-data-disappoints-as-expectedBack in September we released a report to ECRI professional members detailing the trends in FAI and, in the context of our Chinese leading indexes, the clear implications for Chinese economic growth prospects.Click here to read the September 2017 Int’l Essentials member report.Click here to review ECRI’s track record, including member report excerpts.For more information on ECRI professional se...ECRIWed, 22 Nov 2017 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.3 from 145.5, as WLI growth ticked down from 2.7% to 2.6%.   For more on the cyclical outlook, please see links below to insights from our other forward-looking data that we've made public:- download ECRI's "China Data Disappoints, As Expected"- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn"- read ECRI's "Why So Many Are Pissed Off"For a clo...ECRIWed, 22 Nov 2017 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 145.6 from 145.7, as WLI growth slipped from 3.3% to 2.7%.   For more on the cyclical outlook, please see links below to insights from our other forward-looking data that we've made public:- read ECRI's "China Data Disappoints, As Expected"- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn"- read ECRI's "Why So Many Are Pissed Off"For a closer lo...ECRIFri, 17 Nov 2017 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-cycle-locked-into-downturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-cycle-locked-into-downturnIn June, when international central bankers were enjoying their “mission accomplished” moment, ECRI warned that the “Fed risk[ed] being blindsided by a cyclical downturn in inflation.” That downturn is now amply evident in the inflation data . Back then, we predicted that a “falling jobless rate and the Fed’s faith in the Phillips curve will keep it under pressure to raise rates until a cyclica...ECRIWed, 15 Nov 2017 08:54:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-china-leading-index-historical-perspectivehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-china-leading-index-historical-perspectiveChina's share of global GDP is growing while the United States' share of global purchasing power has been declining as a share of the global economy according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based research group that measures the up and down cycles of the U.S. economy. This trend is surely due to the purchasing power of China’s larger population of 1.3 billion people, four ...ECRIMon, 13 Nov 2017 16:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-problem-with-global-growth-forecastshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-problem-with-global-growth-forecastsFollowing ECRI’s October 2016 forecast of an improving global growth outlook, and our recognition in early 2017 of the “Brightest Global Growth Outlook Since 2010,” world GDP growth has surged to almost a 6½-year high .Naturally, this stronger GDP growth has fostered high hopes for sustained strength in global growth into next year. Part of the prevalent optimism comes from the fact that such a...ECRIMon, 13 Nov 2017 08:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 145.6 from 146.1, as WLI growth was virtually unchanged at 3.2%.   For more on the cyclical outlook, please see links below to insights from our other forward-looking data that we've made public:- read "Why So Many Are Pissed Off"- read "Nowcasts and Consensus Forecasts"- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan's latest interview with Reuters.For a closer look...ECRIFri, 10 Nov 2017 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-why-so-many-in-the-west-are-pissed-offhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-why-so-many-in-the-west-are-pissed-offCampaigning to “Make America Great Again,” Donald Trump swept to the presidency last November 8, buoyed by a wave of anger and sense of betrayal in the American heartland. He knew that, for many, the American Dream had receded inexorably beyond reach, lingering only in distant memories. Critically, American parents no longer expect what had been virtually guaranteed in the mid-20th century – th...ECRIWed, 08 Nov 2017 10:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-temporary-reprieve-for-inefficient-firms-in-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-temporary-reprieve-for-inefficient-firms-in-chinaFollowing our “global reflation” forecast call last year, Chinese import and export prices climbed to their highest readings in five years, after staying in negative territory for about four years. Meanwhile, China’s domestic reflation was partly driven by a revival in the manufacturing sector that began earlier this year, as anticipated by our Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index . Sinc...ECRIWed, 08 Nov 2017 08:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consumer-sentiment-and-spending-all-hat-no-cattlehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consumer-sentiment-and-spending-all-hat-no-cattleIn late 2016, during a growth rate cycle upturn that took many by surprise, we declared that the “upswing in ECRI’s U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending , which has now risen to a 17-month high…suggests that the consumer will participate in that GRC upswing” . Indeed, year-over-year growth in real personal consumption expenditures turned up early this year, surging to an 18-month high in Mar...ECRITue, 07 Nov 2017 08:39:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-nowcasts-and-consensus-forecasts-insightshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-nowcasts-and-consensus-forecasts-insightsGDP nowcasts – some of which suggest a third straight quarter of 3%-plus growth – are once again in the news. Consensus forecasts are almost as upbeat. The question is, how reliable are these estimates?Several months ago we released a report to our professional members detailing the ins and outs of nowcasts and consensus forecasts. Three insights stood out:• The accuracy of consensus forecasts ...ECRIMon, 06 Nov 2017 08:47:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-wage-inflation-puzzle-on-full-displayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-wage-inflation-puzzle-on-full-displayLakshman Achuthan spoke with Reuters about the jobs report, weak inflation, and incoming Fed Chair Powell . Today’s jobs report was a bit disappointing for Wall Street, but generally okay with the three-month average jobs gain at 162K/mo.For the central banks, however, their “puzzle” was on full display because wage growth remains weak, and is down to a 1½ -year low. Said another way, we’re app...ECRIFri, 03 Nov 2017 14:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, November 3rd at 12:00 PM EST.ECRIFri, 03 Nov 2017 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-average-hourly-earnings-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-average-hourly-earnings-fallsToday’s data shows that year-over-year average hourly earnings growth fell to a 1½-year low in October, down from a 7½-year high at the end of 2016.Why has wage growth fallen? It’s because growth has been flat for total pay while rebounding for total hours since last winter.While this has been a huge puzzle for policymakers wedded to the Phillips curve, we first highlighted this cyclical dynami...ECRIFri, 03 Nov 2017 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 146.1 from 145.9, as WLI growth increased to 3.2% from 2.9%.   For added perspective on the cyclical outlook, please see links below where we include insights from our other forward-looking data:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's Bloomberg TV interview.- read ECRI's "Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call".For a closer look at the performance o...ECRIFri, 03 Nov 2017 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-economy-grew-at-a-3-percent-rate-a-win-for-trumphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-economy-grew-at-a-3-percent-rate-a-win-for-trumpThe U.S. economy expanded at a 3 percent annualized rate between July and September, advancing President Trump's goal of faster economic growth and potentially providing a tail wind to Republican efforts to overhaul the tax code.The robust pace of economic growth defied analysts' expectations that activity might slow in the third quarter because of Hurricane Harvey. This marks the second quarte...ECRIMon, 30 Oct 2017 15:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 145.9 from 146.5, as WLI growth edged up to 2.8% from 2.2%.   To put the message of our forward-looking data in perspective please see story links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's Bloomberg TV interview.- read ECRI's "Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call"For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the ch...ECRIFri, 27 Oct 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 146.6 from 145.3, as WLI growth increased to 2.3% from 1.3%.   To put the message of our forward-looking data in perspective please see story links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent Bloomberg TV interview.- read ECRI's "Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call"For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the...ECRIFri, 20 Oct 2017 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-profits-growth-slows-with-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-profits-growth-slows-with-economyWhen I was on this show at the beginning of the year, some thought we were a step away from recession, but ECRI was unequivocally bullish about global economic growth and inflation, because our leading indicators of both inflation and growth had turned up before the election.Almost six months later, when global central bankers met in Portugal in late June, they had their “mission accomplished” ...ECRIThu, 19 Oct 2017 08:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Wednesday Oct. 18 at 7:10 PM ET.ECRIWed, 18 Oct 2017 18:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-rbia-s-monetary-policy-minuteshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-rbia-s-monetary-policy-minutesWorry that rising consumer prices will threaten the Indian central bank’s inflation target of 4% led the majority of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee to vote to keep rates steady, according to minutes issued on Wednesday. Here is the full text of the bi-monthly monetary policy statement of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee.Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee MeetingOctob...ECRIWed, 18 Oct 2017 15:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-and-global-home-price-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-and-global-home-price-inflationLast December we flagged an upswing in home price growth for commodity-producing economies, in the midst of a global industrial growth upturn that we had predicted the previous summer . Indeed, real home price growth turned up in Australia, Canada and Norway, before easing recently. In China, where the red-hot housing market has only recently started to cool, rapid home price inflation has beco...ECRIWed, 18 Oct 2017 10:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-brazil-s-stagflation-scenario-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-brazil-s-stagflation-scenario-inflationThe rollercoaster ride for Brazilian inflation may not be over yet. From its January 2014 low, year-over-year CPI growth climbed to 10.7% in January 2016, only to plunge 8.3 percentage points by August 2017 . Spurred by this sharp disinflation, the Banco Central do Brasil cut its target rate six percentage points over the past year, and plans another 1¼ percentage points in cuts by early 2018. ...ECRIMon, 16 Oct 2017 08:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consensus-plays-catch-up-to-our-global-growth-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consensus-plays-catch-up-to-our-global-growth-callA full year ago – when the IMF slashed its global growth forecasts – ECRI forecast “a cyclical upturn in global growth” . This was based on concerted upswings in the growth rates of ECRI’s international long leading indexes. In particular, we noted that “growth in the majority of our long leading indexes for the Group of Seven economies has now climbed above year-ago readings.” Fast-forward to ...ECRIFri, 13 Oct 2017 13:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consensus-plays-catch-up-to-our-global-growth-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-consensus-plays-catch-up-to-our-global-growth-callA full year ago – when the IMF slashed its global growth forecasts – ECRI forecast “a cyclical upturn in global growth” . This was based on concerted upswings in the growth rates of ECRI’s international long leading indexes. In particular, we noted that “growth in the majority of our long leading indexes for the Group of Seven economies has now climbed above year-ago readings.” Fast-forward to ...ECRIFri, 13 Oct 2017 12:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index latest reading edged up to 145.2 from 144.5 and the WLI growth increased to 1.2% from 0.7%.  To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read ECRI's "Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call"- watch Lakshman Achuthan's CNBC interview.For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below: ECRIFri, 13 Oct 2017 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-high-hopes-for-eurozone-industrial-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-high-hopes-for-eurozone-industrial-growthA slew of recent data – including the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which surged to its highest level since 2011 – has bolstered consensus expectations that industrial growth will continue to support the broader Eurozone recovery. Indeed, coincident Eurozone industrial production growth data has already improved noticeably since its cycle low. The chart displays the three-month trailing average –...ECRIThu, 12 Oct 2017 09:11:31 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-rate-cut-may-have-limited-impacthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-rate-cut-may-have-limited-impactThe People’s Bank of China recently made a targeted cut to its reserve requirement ratio, loosening monetary policy, even as the other major central banks have been looking to "normalize" policy by raising rates. With the rate cut intended to stoke business lending and investment, it is instructive to review the current state of Chinese fixed asset investment to see how much the PBoC’s cut can ...ECRIMon, 09 Oct 2017 08:45:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index latest reading increased to 144.4 from 143.7 as WLI growth ticked up to 0.7 from -0.1%.  To put the economy in perspective please see link below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's CNBC interview.For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below: ECRIFri, 06 Oct 2017 10:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-profits-growth-downturn-to-take-hold-opinion-weekly-leading-index-wlihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-anirvan-banerji-profits-growth-downturn-to-take-hold-opinion-weekly-leading-index-wliCorporate-profit growth is on the cusp of a downturn. This is a problem because of the widely held view on Wall Street that the path of profit growth could be central to the stock market’s direction.Stock prices can be pushed up by higher earnings or a rising price/earnings multiple. With further expansion of the multiple increasingly unlikely given the Federal Reserve’s tightening bias, the co...ECRIFri, 06 Oct 2017 09:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-boc-will-struggle-to-normalize-policyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-boc-will-struggle-to-normalize-policyOn the heels of the strongest year-over-year GDP growth since 2006, the Bank of Canada hiked rates early last month for the second time in as many months. The output gap was widely invoked to explain the move; namely, even though inflation has clearly declined of late, economic growth has been above trend, which should theoretically boost inflation. However, the output gap has proven unreliable...ECRIThu, 05 Oct 2017 09:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-boc-will-struggle-to-normalize-policyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-boc-will-struggle-to-normalize-policyOn the heels of the strongest year-over-year GDP growth since 2006, the Bank of Canada hiked rates early this month for the second time in as many months. The output gap was widely invoked to explain the move; namely, even though inflation has clearly declined of late, economic growth has been above trend, which should theoretically boost inflation. However, the output gap has proven unreliable...ECRIThu, 05 Oct 2017 08:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-upThe latest ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index reading edged up to 143.7 from 143.4. However, WLI growth decreased to a 79-week low of -0.1%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's CNBC interview.- read ECRI's "Jan ’17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided".For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below: ...ECRIFri, 29 Sep 2017 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-income-gains-still-fall-short-for-most-americanshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-income-gains-still-fall-short-for-most-americansImmediately after the November elections, in an analysis featured in the New York Times, ECRI showed just how unevenly job gains have been distributed during the current expansion. In particular, we showed that Whites actually had fewer jobs than nine years earlier, while Hispanics, Blacks and Asians together gained all of the net jobs added, and more. This, we explained to the Washington Post,...ECRIThu, 28 Sep 2017 08:50:42 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchangedThe latest ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index reading was unchanged at 143.4. However, WLI growth fell to a 78-week low of 0.0%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent CNBC interview- read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Seeking Alpha- read ECRI's "Jan ’17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided"For a closer look at the performance of the U.S...ECRIFri, 22 Sep 2017 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-impact-of-chinese-industrial-growth-on-taiwanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-impact-of-chinese-industrial-growth-on-taiwanThe consensus is quite optimistic about the Taiwanese economic growth outlook, following stronger-than-expected Q2 2017 GDP growth. The Taiwanese government recently upgraded its GDP growth forecast, noting that “recovering global demand [is] expected to support the momentum of Taiwan’s goods exports.” Taiwan’s recent growth was driven largely by strong export performance, while consumer demand...ECRIThu, 21 Sep 2017 15:52:17 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-forces-pressuring-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-forces-pressuring-the-fedQ: Will there be a December rate hike? A: If the Phillips curve remains dominant in Fed thinking, then yes. But we all know it hasn’t worked in years. What does work is the Future Inflation Gauge , a cyclical leading indicator of inflation. Over a year ago it correctly nailed the reflation call when markets were worried about deflation. Then it turned down, anticipating the 2017 inflation downt...ECRIWed, 20 Sep 2017 18:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-fedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell to discuss the Fed -- Wednesday Sept. 20 at 4:00 PM ET.ECRIWed, 20 Sep 2017 15:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2The latest ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index reading increased to 143.3 from 141.8. However, WLI growth decreased to a 77-week low of 0.3%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Seeking Alpha- read ECRI's "Jan ’17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided"- watch Lakshman Achuthan's Reuters interviewFor a closer look at the perform...ECRIFri, 15 Sep 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-only-a-few-industries-are-driving-job-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-only-a-few-industries-are-driving-job-growthHeadline jobs numbers have been pretty solid this year, but looking beneath the surface reveals that job growth has actually been driven by a very narrow group of industries. The retail trade industry provides a particularly stark example. Indeed, year-over-year job growth in retail trade jobs has been slowing since last fall and, after sinking into negative territory, slipped to a seven-year l...ECRIThu, 14 Sep 2017 08:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-q-a-on-waning-economic-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-q-a-on-waning-economic-growthHarlan Levy: How much do you expect global turmoil to infect the U.S. economy and stop it from its slow pace?Lakshman Achuthan: At this time, global turmoil is not likely to take much of a toll on the economy – and certainly not tip it into recession – because the U.S. economy is not in a recessionary window of vulnerability. As we wrote recently, “endogenous cyclical forces periodically open u...ECRIFri, 08 Sep 2017 11:38:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-againClick here to download the Weekly Leading Index data.ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 141.8 from 143.9. The WLI growth rate declined to a 75-week low of 0.9%, from 1.9% last week. To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read ECRI's "Jan ’17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided"- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent Reuters interview.- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirva...ECRIFri, 08 Sep 2017 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jan-a-17-flashback-bond-bears-will-be-blindsidedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jan-a-17-flashback-bond-bears-will-be-blindsided“Those declaring that the 35-year bond bull market has ended are conflating structural shifts and cyclical forces that could blindside them in the coming months.” For an excerpt of our January 2017 report, click here.Following the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory, the consensus view of the economy quickly turned very positive, with many convinced that his proposed policies had, ...ECRIFri, 08 Sep 2017 08:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-central-bank-normalization-plans-on-shaky-groundhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-central-bank-normalization-plans-on-shaky-groundSince their “Mission Accomplished” moment a couple months ago, faith in the major central banks’ ability to “normalize” policy has receded dramatically. In June, they were singing the same, more hawkish or less dovish, chorus, including a declaration from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that “the threat of deflation is gone.” As our chart shows, in the days following those intimati...ECRIThu, 07 Sep 2017 08:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobs-the-fed-cyclical-developmentshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobs-the-fed-cyclical-developmentsSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.Since last year, ECRI has been saying that economic growth is in a cyclical upturn that began around the middle of 2016, and that upturn continues. Today’s report shows okay jobs growth, certainly stronger than labor force growth over time . And the jobless rate remains near 16-year lows.The key takeaway is that the jobless rate will stay low,...ECRIFri, 01 Sep 2017 14:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-upU.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.9 from 111.5 in July, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG ticked up in August, but is still well below last fall’s cyclical peak," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures ...ECRIFri, 01 Sep 2017 11:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, September 1st at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 01 Sep 2017 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 143.9 from 144.1. The WLI growth rate falls to a 73-week low of 1.9%, from 2.3% last week. To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - see @businesscycle's latest tweet on today's jobs report- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent op-ed on Bloomberg- read ECRI's "Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction"For a close...ECRIFri, 01 Sep 2017 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-outsized-job-gains-for-less-educated-depresses-wage-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-outsized-job-gains-for-less-educated-depresses-wage-growthThat the headline Employment/Population ratio can be deceiving is something we’ve detailed in earlier reports. Today, the E/P ratio, which had been near record lows in the fall of 2013, has topped the 60% mark for the first time since 2009 . Having made up less than half of the lost ground, it indicates a substantial but incomplete recovery in labor participation.But the recent revival has been...ECRIMon, 28 Aug 2017 08:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-finding-the-root-cause-of-recessionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-finding-the-root-cause-of-recessionsThe U.S. managed to avoid recession after the financial crisis, but Japan has succumbed to three contractions since 2009. Economic volatility is a key reason for this divergence, and that tells us a great deal about the risk of future U.S. recessions.During this decade, both the U.S. and Japan have experienced multiple growth rate cycles, which consist of alternating periods of rising and falli...ECRIFri, 25 Aug 2017 10:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-2Body: ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 144.1 from 144.5. The WLI growth rate decreases to a 72-week low of 2.3%, from 2.5% the previous week. To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction".- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".For a closer look at recent moves in the ...ECRIFri, 25 Aug 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-flashback-declining-productivity-in-constructionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-flashback-declining-productivity-in-constructionIn the two key sectors of the economy where President Trump has promised to create “good jobs” – manufacturing and construction – productivity has actually been falling. Because manufacturing, in particular, had spearheaded productivity increases in past decades, we share the roots of this reversal, whose continuation would doom the prospects for a more sustained revival in economic growth. Non...ECRIThu, 24 Aug 2017 08:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 144.5 from 144.3, and the growth rate slips to 2.5% from 2.8%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Womenomics Falls Short for Japan".- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 18 Aug 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-slow-growth-worries-mpc-external-members-rbihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-slow-growth-worries-mpc-external-members-rbiThe concerns of two sets of members of the Monetary Policy Committee -the three nominated by the government and the other three from the Reserve Bank of India -are beginning to show divergence with economic growth figuring prominently among outsiders, minutes from the meeting show.Outside members of the MPC have commented more about the slowing growth than the threat of inflation compared with ...ECRIThu, 17 Aug 2017 09:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-womenomics-falls-short-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-womenomics-falls-short-for-japanThe cyclical strength in Japanese GDP is being taken by some as a vindication of Abenomics, which was meant to end years of low growth and deflation  through a three-pronged approach: monetary easing, fiscal stimulus,and a series of broad structural reforms. Although its impact on inflation has been fleeting,one aspect of Abenomics — the so-called womenomics — has seen some modest success. Wome...ECRIMon, 14 Aug 2017 08:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index virtually unchanged at 144.3, and the growth rate ticks down to 2.7% from 2.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Anirvan Banerji's current interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.ECRIFri, 11 Aug 2017 10:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-monthly-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-monthly-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-increasesThe level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 142.5, as its growth rate ticked down to 2.9% from 3.0%.To put the economic cycle in perspective please see links below: - watch Anirvan Banerji's recent interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.ECRITue, 08 Aug 2017 08:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobs-inflation-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobs-inflation-and-the-fedSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.International central bankers have been having their “mission accomplished” moment, following the cyclical improvement in global growth and global reflation ECRI predicted last year. After many years of extraordinary monetary stimulus, they have to say it’s worked: they just want to claim victory and go home. But with inflation pulling back, t...ECRIFri, 04 Aug 2017 14:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-anirvan-banerji-reuters-upcoming-web-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-anirvan-banerji-reuters-upcoming-web-interviewECRI's Anirvan Banerji will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, August 4th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 04 Aug 2017 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 144.4 from 144.1, and the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 2.8%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see t...ECRIFri, 04 Aug 2017 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-dipsU.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 111.5 from 111.7 in June, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG dipped in July, further distancing itself from last fall’s cyclical peak," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressure...ECRIFri, 04 Aug 2017 09:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-central-banks-declare-mission-accomplished-as-inflation-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-central-banks-declare-mission-accomplished-as-inflation-fallsCentral bankers enjoyed their “mission accomplished” moment in late June, given the cyclical improvement in global growth and global reflation, vindicating ECRI’s forecasts from last year. Yet, with inflation pulling back in several major economies recently, a real question remains as to whether they declared victory prematurely.In this context, we show year-over-year inflation rates in the U.S...ECRIThu, 03 Aug 2017 08:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-rbi-considers-leading-indicatorshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-rbi-considers-leading-indicatorsThe concept of 'output gap', regularly used by the members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee to explain the rationale behind their decisions, is "virtually unusable", according to Lakshman Achuthan, co founder and chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute."We do not believe that, in practical terms, this is a useful approach to the assessment of un...ECRITue, 01 Aug 2017 23:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-phillips-cureveball-future-inflation-gauge-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-phillips-cureveball-future-inflation-gauge-1Under Ms. Yellen’s leadership, the preemption of inflation based on the Phillips curve has become the lodestar of monetary policy. Accordingly, last week’s Fed statement, while allowing that inflation “is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term,” reaffirms the view that it will “stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.” The Phillips curve i...ECRIMon, 31 Jul 2017 09:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-phillips-cureveball-future-inflation-gaugehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-phillips-cureveball-future-inflation-gaugeUnder Ms. Yellen’s leadership, the preemption of inflation based on the Phillips curve has become the lodestar of monetary policy. Accordingly, last week’s Fed statement, while allowing that inflation “is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term,” reaffirms the view that it will “stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.” The Phillips curve i...ECRIMon, 31 Jul 2017 08:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 144.2 from 144.7, as its growth rate ticks up from 2.6% to 2.8%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.- ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.For a ...ECRIFri, 28 Jul 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-lack-of-financial-stress-stresses-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-lack-of-financial-stress-stresses-fedThere is rising concern at the Fed that, despite its ongoing rate hike cycle, financial conditions have not tightened accordingly. Indeed, per the latest Fed minutes, a few Federal Open Market Committee members “expressed concern that subdued market volatility, coupled with a low equity premium, could lead to a buildup of risks to financial stability,” and “judged that the case for a policy rat...ECRIWed, 26 Jul 2017 08:53:39 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-amid-headwinds-mexican-exports-surgehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-amid-headwinds-mexican-exports-surgeThe consensus view of prospects for the key Mexican export sector has been bolstered of late, with exports driving much of the stronger-than-expected GDP print in Q1 2017 that led the Bank of Mexico to upgrade its 2017 GDP growth estimate. Furthermore, concerns that the Trump administration would impose a broad tariff on Mexican exports to the U.S. have receded, reducing a major threat to expor...ECRIMon, 24 Jul 2017 08:50:13 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-risesECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 144.8 from 143.9, as its growth rate ticked up from 2.4% to 2.6%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.- ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.For...ECRIFri, 21 Jul 2017 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-long-leading-index-a-primerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-long-leading-index-a-primerThe value of the ECRI’s U.S. Long Leading Index lies in its ability to spot cyclical turns in the level of economic activity before conventional leading indexes. The USLLI is updated monthly and its historical data goes back almost a century, starting in 1919, demonstrating its durability through major structural changes in the economy. USLLI growth leads turning points in the U.S. growth rate ...ECRIWed, 19 Jul 2017 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-seattle-client-meetinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-seattle-client-meetingECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with professional members in Seattle on July 18 - 20.ECRITue, 18 Jul 2017 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fig-all-signs-point-to-a-cyclical-slowdown-in-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fig-all-signs-point-to-a-cyclical-slowdown-in-inflationThe inflation debate among Federal Reserve policy makers comes down to peering through a mud-caked windshield to figure out what's ahead, or being guided by looking in the rear-view mirror. But a third option, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, cuts through the confusion and has a solid track record of providing turn-by-turn directions to the road ahead like a GPS.Traditionalists on the Federal O...ECRITue, 18 Jul 2017 08:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-recessionECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index remains unchanged at 143.9, while its growth rate ticked down from 2.6% to 2.4%. To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters. - read ECRI's "China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains".- ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.For a close...ECRIFri, 14 Jul 2017 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-monthly-us-wli-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-monthly-us-wli-fallsThe level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreases to 142.0 from 142.4, as its growth rate falls to 2.9% from 4.5%.To put the economic cycle in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains".ECRITue, 11 Jul 2017 08:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobs-wages-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-interview-jobs-wages-the-fedSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.The cyclical insight everyone misses: in tight labor markets wage growth actually falls as economic growth rebounds, because hours worked rise faster than total pay. See chart tweeted this morning explaining the details.The Fed minutes released this week reveal a fair amount of debate as they second-guess their Phillips curve framework. Some t...ECRIFri, 07 Jul 2017 14:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-upcoming-web-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, July 7th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 07 Jul 2017 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 144.0, as its growth rate edged down from 3.0% to 2.7% To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains".- ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the char...ECRIFri, 07 Jul 2017 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-edged-up-in-junehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-edged-up-in-juneU.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.6 from 111.3 in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG edged up in June after having dropped noticeably in May," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still simme...ECRIFri, 07 Jul 2017 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-fighttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-figECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989.The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.The 2016 upturn in the USFI...ECRIFri, 07 Jul 2017 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-k-home-price-growth-turns-negativehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-k-home-price-growth-turns-negativeThe broader U.K. economy started the year on soft footing with quarter-over-quarter GDP growth at a one-year low, year-over-year real disposable income falling to a multiyear low and the savings rate plunging to a record low. Additionally, CPI inflation continues to be above the 2% Bank of England target, rising to nearly a four-year high in May, as anticipated by ECRI’s U.K. Future Inflation G...ECRIThu, 06 Jul 2017 08:53:23 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-eases-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-eases-furtherECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 143.1 from 143.7 in the week ending June 23, as its growth rate slipped from 3.4% to 3.0% To put the economy in perspective please see link below: - ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 30 Jun 2017 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-after-four-years-of-recovery-spanish-jobless-rates-still-elevatedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-after-four-years-of-recovery-spanish-jobless-rates-still-elevatedNearly a decade ago, Spain entered its most severe recession on record, and even now, four years after that epic recession finally ended, the economic recovery continues to underperform in nearly every respect. Notably, none of the coincident indicators, which collectively define the state of the business cycle, have made a full recovery. Indeed, employment has only gained back 42% of its reces...ECRIWed, 28 Jun 2017 08:51:18 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-trade-turmoil-masks-key-u-s-gainshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-china-trade-turmoil-masks-key-u-s-gainsBecause ECRI’s expertise concerns economic cycles, we can more accurately strip out the cyclical component of economic data, leaving behind the structural. For example, since the Great Recession, there have been momentous changes in U.S. trade that are widely overlooked. The U.S. enjoys a trade surplus in services that has more than doubled since the recession, but it has been overwhelmed by a ...ECRIMon, 26 Jun 2017 08:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 143.7 from 144.0. The growth rate slips to 3.4% from 3.7%.To put the economy in perspective please see link below: - ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 23 Jun 2017 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-ecri-indexes-clear-up-boc-s-cloudy-export-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-ecri-indexes-clear-up-boc-s-cloudy-export-outlookDespite strong Q1 GDP growth, the Bank of Canada struck a cautious tone in May, stating that it expects “some moderation” in Q2 growth. This follows the BoC revising up its 2017 GDP growth forecast in April, while revising down the expected contribution from exports, which account for one-third of Canadian GDP. Still, the BoC’s export outlook remains cloudy, citing “[o]ngoing challenges to comp...ECRIMon, 19 Jun 2017 08:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-new-interview-with-real-visionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-new-interview-with-real-visionECRI's Achuthan joined Real Vision TV in May 2017 to discuss key business cycle concepts, monetary policy, and the cyclical outlook, including the industrial sector .ECRIFri, 16 Jun 2017 14:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 144.0 from 144.5. The growth rate decreases to 3.7% from 4.1%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.- read ECRI's "International Inflation Cycles Sync Up".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, s...ECRIFri, 16 Jun 2017 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-higher-inflation-should-be-celebratedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-higher-inflation-should-be-celebratedInflation has picked up in Britain and America but its return has divided expertsThe fear of deflation has disappeared. Now inflation is ratcheting up across the world as the effect of cheap oil drops away. In the UK, the slide in sterling after the Brexit vote caused the cost of imported goods to jump, leaving a nation fretting over the price of prosecco.The US too saw inflation pick up earlie...ECRITue, 13 Jun 2017 14:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-turning-points-angsthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-turning-points-angstECRI presented “Turning Points: The Long and Short of It,” at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.The presentation focuses on turning points directly related to the angst about today’s economy.• First, two huge turning points in the last couple centuries that form the backdrop for what’s happening today. • In this century, we’ve been experiencing a very different type of structural shift t...ECRITue, 13 Jun 2017 08:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-commodity-exports-plunge-a-concern-for-australia-with-implications-for-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-commodity-exports-plunge-a-concern-for-australia-with-implications-for-chinaAfter soaring to an eight-year high in December 2016, Australian commodity export growth has plummeted , raising concerns for Australian and Chinese economic growth. Last year’s surge in commodity export growth followed ECRI’s earlier forecast that “[Australian] commodity export growth is likely to continue to increase” , in the context of global industrial growth upturn we flagged last summer....ECRIMon, 12 Jun 2017 09:02:45 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-commodity-exports-plunge-a-concern-for-australia-with-implications-for-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-commodity-exports-plunge-a-concern-for-australia-with-implications-for-chinaAfter soaring to an eight-year high in December 2016, Australian commodity export growth has plummeted , raising concerns for Australian and Chinese economic growth. Last year’s surge in commodity export growth followed ECRI’s earlier forecast that “[Australian] commodity export growth is likely to continue to increase” , in the context of global industrial growth upturn we flagged last summer....ECRIMon, 12 Jun 2017 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 144.5 from 143.5. The growth rate ticks down to 4.2% from 4.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "International Inflation Cycles Sync Up".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 09 Jun 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticks-downThe level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 142.4 from 142.5, the growth rate slips to 4.5% from 5.6%, a 14-month low.To put the economy in perspective please see link below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.ECRIThu, 08 Jun 2017 08:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fed-unfazed-by-weak-consumer-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fed-unfazed-by-weak-consumer-spendingPersonal consumption expenditures growth disappointed in Q1 2017, as its quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate was its weakest since 2009, raising concerns about the health of the consumer. Separately, ECRI’s U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending entered a cyclical upturn in February 2016, anticipating the early 2016 upturns in year-over-year real PCE growth and yoy real retail sales grow...ECRIMon, 05 Jun 2017 09:44:03 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-and-the-fedSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.ECRIFri, 02 Jun 2017 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-8ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, June 2nd at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 02 Jun 2017 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreases to 143.7 from 144.1. The growth rate slips to 4.6% from 5.1%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "International Inflation Cycles Sync Up".- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's article on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 02 Jun 2017 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-under-pressure-from-central-bank-orthodoxyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-under-pressure-from-central-bank-orthodoxyWe recently highlighted how the Fed has “demonstrated a clear misunderstanding of what drives real wage growth.” This is largely due to a Phillips-curve-driven misread.Indeed, the Fed continues to place importance on the Phillips curve, or some variant thereof, as a determinant of monetary policy. In this context, it is notable that the jobless rate has continued to sink further below the Fed’s...ECRIThu, 01 Jun 2017 10:10:05 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 144.1 from 144.5. The growth rate ticks up to 5.1% from 5.0%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "International Inflation Cycles Sync Up".- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's article on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 26 May 2017 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-ecb-s-dilemmahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-ecb-s-dilemmaThe eurozone’s monetary woes never end. They mutate as the economic cycle matures, just as intractable in good times as in recession. Today’s bubbly recovery – engineered in the nick of time to avert a eurosceptic dégringolade in the French elections – already contains the seed of the next crisis.It brings forward the day when the European Central Bank runs out of plausible justifications for w...ECRIThu, 25 May 2017 09:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-cycles-sync-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-international-inflation-cycles-sync-upThe International Long Leading Future Inflation Gauge is a long leading indicator of the international inflation cycle, a relatively new feature of the international economy. The ILLFIG leads the international inflation cycle by a little over half a year, on average, and is used in sequence with the 11-Country Future Inflation Gauge.The synchronization of international inflation cycles highligh...ECRIWed, 24 May 2017 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-mauldin-economics-strategic-investment-conferencehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-mauldin-economics-strategic-investment-conferenceOn May 24, Lakshman Achuthan will present at the 2017 Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.ECRIWed, 24 May 2017 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-determined-for-u-shttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-determined-for-u-sToday ECRI is announcing May 2016 as a new growth rate cycle trough date for the U.S. Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using ...ECRITue, 23 May 2017 11:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 144.5 from 144.8. The growth rate edges down to 5.0% from 5.1%, a 55-week low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent article on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky...ECRIFri, 19 May 2017 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-monthly-leading-index-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-monthly-leading-index-edges-downThe level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 142.4 from 143.0, the growth rate falls to 5.5% from 7.9%, a one-year low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent article on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on ReutersECRIWed, 17 May 2017 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 144.8 from 144.4. The growth rate decreases to 5.1% from 5.4%, a 54-week low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent article on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Co...ECRIFri, 12 May 2017 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-improvement-in-global-trade-is-cyclical-not-structuralhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-improvement-in-global-trade-is-cyclical-not-structuralHalf a year ago, we first flagged the “improving global growth outlook” to our clients — which has only recently dawned on the International Monetary Fund . Already, the cyclical improvement following that call has had a wide-ranging impact on international economic activity, including trade. A couple of years ago, in 2015, we observed that “world trade growth has essentially collapsed after re...ECRIWed, 10 May 2017 08:52:39 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-improving-global-outlook-and-italian-exports-italian-consumer-retailhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-improving-global-outlook-and-italian-exports-italian-consumer-retailWhile the global economic outlook is positive, Italy – with a Q4 2016 GDP figure that is still more than 7% below its 2008 peak – is not riding the wave of higher global growth. Furthermore, with increasing CPI volatility that has been heightening uncertainty about inflation and dampening consumer spending, the Italian consumer has been unable to provide significant support to the economy of la...ECRITue, 09 May 2017 08:45:37 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-how-the-fed-misinterprets-wage-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-how-the-fed-misinterprets-wage-growthFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen pointed to “nonexistent” real wage growth to justify holding rates at zero percent in 2014. There is room, she said, "for real wage gains before we need to worry that that is creating overall inflationary pressure for the economy,” suggesting that real wage growth was a precondition for rate hikes.Fast-forward to today, and we find the Fed ignoring that dictum...ECRIMon, 08 May 2017 16:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-data-in-cyclical-perspectivehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-data-in-cyclical-perspectiveSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.The market is somewhat surprised by this healthy jobs report that fits with the upturn in overall economic growth that we’ve been discussing with you for months now. The Fed’s “full-employment” mandate has been met, and this morning’s update on ECRI’s Future Inflation Gauge shows that underlying inflation pressures haven’t retreated.  A key ex...ECRIFri, 05 May 2017 15:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 144.4 from 143.2. The growth rate ticks down to 5.4% from 5.9%, a one-year low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on CNBC.- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index...ECRIFri, 05 May 2017 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-7ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, May 5th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 05 May 2017 09:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-remains-elevatedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-remains-elevatedU.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 113.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG was flat in April, having stayed since mid-2016 around its highest readings since 2008," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "In other words, underlying inflation pressu...ECRIFri, 05 May 2017 09:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-near-term-pop-long-term-drophttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-near-term-pop-long-term-dropU.S. economic growth in a cyclical upturn since mid-2016:•    Year-over-year GDP growth remains near a 1¼-year high, and could get to a two-year high in Q2 2017•    Industrial production growth is already at a two-year high•    Jobless rate is at a ten-year low•    Real consumer spending growth bottomed out last spring at around 2%, but has stayed closer to 3% since last summer Moreover, the U....ECRITue, 02 May 2017 08:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell today, MAy 1st at 3:10 PM ET.ECRIMon, 01 May 2017 14:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-chinese-export-outlook-changeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-chinese-export-outlook-changesIn November 2016, ECRI predicted that Chinese export growth “is likely to revive further”, based on our Chinese Leading Exports Index . Indeed, Chinese export growth has steadily improved, and the March data surprised many as its year-over-year growth surged to over a two-year high. As a result, Q1 2017 real export growth rose again to a nine-quarter high, after returning to positive territory ...ECRIMon, 01 May 2017 08:49:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 143.2 from 144.1. The growth rate edges down to 5.9% from 6.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 28 Apr 2017 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slippedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slippedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 144.1 from 145.0. The growth rate decreased to 6.5% from 7.0%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 21 Apr 2017 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-brazilian-cyclical-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-brazilian-cyclical-growth-prospectsThree years ago Brazil was about to host the World Cup, with an opportunity to showcase just how far it had advanced. Instead, the commodity bust arrived and the economy imploded, with Brazil entering a severe business cycle downturn. In fact, Brazil remains mired in a deep recession – the worst on record. This is clearly evident from the sharp decline in the level of ECRI’s Brazilian Coinciden...ECRIThu, 20 Apr 2017 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-america-first-in-perspectivehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-america-first-in-perspectiveECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented ""America First" in Perspective," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please use this link to download a PDF of the presentation slides, including notes.• From a near-term, cyclical point of view, our analysis of the outlook is unambiguously positive.  • But when we expand our view to consider the next several years, becau...ECRIWed, 19 Apr 2017 10:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-america-first-in-perspectivehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-america-first-in-perspectiveECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented ""America First" In Perspective," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please use this link to download a PDF of the presentation slides, including notes.• From a near-term, cyclical point of view, our analysis of the outlook is unambiguously positive.  • But when we expand our view to consider the next several years, becau...ECRIWed, 19 Apr 2017 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-annual-hyman-p-minsky-conferencehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-annual-hyman-p-minsky-conferenceOn April 18, Lakshman Achuthan will present at the Levy Institute's 26th Annual Minsky Conference.ECRITue, 18 Apr 2017 04:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 145.2 from 145.0. The growth rate eased to 7.1% from 7.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "Jobless Rates Show Cyclical Revival, Structural Slack".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIThu, 13 Apr 2017 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticked-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticked-downThe level of the monthly WLI ticked down to 143.0 from 143.3.The growth rate of the monthly WLI decreased to 7.8% from 10.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters.- read ECRI's "Jobless Rates Show Cyclical Revival, Structural Slack".- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on CNBC.ECRIWed, 12 Apr 2017 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-mexican-exports-rebound-ahead-of-bat-threathttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-mexican-exports-rebound-ahead-of-bat-threatThe proposed border adjustment tax , which would effectively levy a substantial tax on imports to the U.S., is of great concern for the Mexican economy, as it directly threatens its vital export sector. Of course, as of now, the BAT is still only a proposal, and is unlikely to impact Mexican exports near term. So, how are cyclical prospects for Mexican exports ahead of this potential policy sho...ECRITue, 11 Apr 2017 08:52:55 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-incredible-rush-to-exceptional-indiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-incredible-rush-to-exceptional-indiaPowered by a rush of foreign investment, Indian stock prices surged to a new high last week. Posting double-digit returns year-to-date, Indian equities have outperformed stocks in the other BRIC economies, as well as the U.S. Also – while declining globally – foreign direct investment into India spurted to an eight-year high in 2016, exceeding India’s current account deficit for the first time ...ECRIMon, 10 Apr 2017 09:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-inflation-and-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobs-inflation-and-the-fedSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.Headline jobs growth came in well below expectations, and weather played some part in suppressing job growth, both in construction and retail. But the jobless rate dropped to 4.5%, its lowest reading since 2007, so the Fed’s “full-employment” mandate has been met.Their other mandate is on inflation, and over the past year I’ve discussed our U....ECRIFri, 07 Apr 2017 13:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-6ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, April 7th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 07 Apr 2017 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rosehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-roseThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 145.0 from 144.1. The growth rate decreased to 7.5% from 7.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on CNBC.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on MSNBC.- read ECRI's "Fed Not Crying Wolf".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 07 Apr 2017 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobless-rates-show-cyclical-revival-structural-slackhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-jobless-rates-show-cyclical-revival-structural-slackJoblessness hasn’t been lower since before the Great Recession, underscoring the cyclical recovery in the labor market. That’s the message from both the “official” U3 jobless rate and the so-called “real” jobless rate U6, which captures some of the additional labor market slack. The U6 measure includes those not actively looking after failed job searches in the past 12 months, as well as people...ECRIFri, 07 Apr 2017 10:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-decreasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-decreasedU.S. inflationary pressures were down in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge decreased to 113.2 from a 113.5 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While the USFIG dipped in March, it remains in a cyclical upswing," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "In essence, underlying inflation pressure...ECRIFri, 07 Apr 2017 09:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-ancient-history-cannot-deny-cycle-upturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-ancient-history-cannot-deny-cycle-upturnTo begin with, what Dimon’s talking about is not just old news, it’s practically ancient, and we’ve known and written about it for many years.  More importantly, it conflates long-term structural problems with the nearer-term cyclical outlook, which remains the best it’s been in years. U.S. economic growth has been in a cyclical upturn since mid-2016: GDP growth is at one-year highIP growth is ...ECRIWed, 05 Apr 2017 09:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Closing Bell with Kelly Evans and Bill Griffeth today, April 4th at 4:30 PM ET.ECRITue, 04 Apr 2017 16:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-volatility-hurting-italian-consumershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-inflation-volatility-hurting-italian-consumersWhile the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged earlier this month, ECRI had pointed out that “widespread inflation cycle upswings across the advanced economies are now in evidence,” consistent with our global reflation call from last summer. In fact, following the earlier upturn in ECRI’s Italian Future Inflation Gauge , Italian CPI growth has been increasing since las...ECRITue, 04 Apr 2017 08:56:42 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-nafta-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-nafta-jobsIt’s important to understand the lay of the land. In the second half of 2016 Mexican exports growth rebounded to a one-year high, and paradoxically, the plunge in the peso trigged by Trump’s election actually made Mexican exports even more price competitive. Furthermore, ECRI’s Mexican Leading Exports Index, which anticipated that bounce in Mexican exports, is still pretty optimistic.The Trump ...ECRIMon, 03 Apr 2017 10:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-msnbc-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-msnbc-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on MSNBC this Sunday, April 2nd in the 4:00 PM ET hour.ECRISun, 02 Apr 2017 15:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.1 from 144.5. The growth rate ticked down to 7.9% from 8.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Fed Not Crying Wolf".- read ECRI's "EM: From Ugly Ducklings to Swans".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 31 Mar 2017 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-emerging-markets-ugly-ducklings-to-swanshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-emerging-markets-ugly-ducklings-to-swansAs the Trump triumph triggered an investor flight from emerging markets, ECRI presented a radically variant view, declaring that emerging economies would actually outshine advanced economies. Since we released that report to our members in late November, the prices of Emerging Market stocks have risen one and a half times as much as those of Developed Market stocks. Amidst the fear and loathing...ECRIFri, 31 Mar 2017 08:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-japanese-manufacturing-rides-on-global-industrial-growth-upturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-japanese-manufacturing-rides-on-global-industrial-growth-upturnThe Japanese manufacturing sector is gaining traction. Indeed, year-over-year growth in the Japanese Coincident Manufacturing Index has improved since early 2016 to a 33-month high in December before slipping slightly in January . This recovery is in line with a cyclical upturn in Japanese Leading Manufacturing Index growth, and, more broadly, is consistent with our global industrial growth upt...ECRIWed, 29 Mar 2017 08:56:14 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fooled-by-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-fooled-by-inflationMany are misreading the “hard” data as very weak, even as the Fed is set to stay the course on its rate hike cycle, as ECRI had forecast in early February. In her comments following last week’s rate hike, Janet Yellen essentially echoed our earlier outlook in saying: “The simple message is the economy is doing well.”Indeed, the year-over-year growth rates of both GDP and industrial production h...ECRIMon, 27 Mar 2017 08:54:42 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.6 from 145.4. The growth rate ticked down to 9.0% from 9.6%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Fed Not Crying Wolf".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 24 Mar 2017 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-sun-valley-client-meetinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-sun-valley-client-meetingECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Sun Valley on March 21 - 23.ECRITue, 21 Mar 2017 11:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-russia-on-the-risehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-russia-on-the-riseRussia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emerging economic realities have not. In fact, consistent with ECRI’s cyclical outlook, Ru...ECRIMon, 20 Mar 2017 08:51:34 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.5 from 145.2. The growth rate edged down to 9.6% from 9.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Fed Not Crying Wolf".- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 17 Mar 2017 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-new-cycle-dates-determined-for-russia-and-australiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-new-cycle-dates-determined-for-russia-and-australiaToday ECRI is announcing new business and growth rate cycle dates for Russia as well as a growth rate cycle date Australia. Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a rea...ECRIThu, 16 Mar 2017 12:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-fed-who-cried-wolf-is-no-morehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-the-fed-who-cried-wolf-is-no-moreIn early February, following the last Fed statement, March rate hike probabilities fell to just 15%, with the markets expecting only two rate hikes in 2017. In contrast, we explained why faster rate hikes were likely and declared in an ECRI report: “The Fed will be spurred to hike rates more than most believe. That is the inescapable logic of the current state of the economic cycle.” Today, a M...ECRIWed, 15 Mar 2017 08:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-unchanged-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-unchanged-1The level of the monthly WLI was unchanged at 143.1. The growth rate fell to 10.0% from 11.9%.To put the economic growth outlook in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on MSNBC.ECRITue, 14 Mar 2017 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-on-u-s-jobs-the-fed-and-ecbhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-interview-on-u-s-jobs-the-fed-and-ecbSee link below to watch interview on Reuters TV.Watch Lakshman Achuthan's Reuters interview on U.S. Jobs, the Fed and ECB.ECRIFri, 10 Mar 2017 13:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-5ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, March 10th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 10 Mar 2017 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-downThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 144.9 from 145.4. The growth rate decreased to 9.5% from 10.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on MSNBC.- read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Elle.- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Finanacial Sense.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, se...ECRIFri, 10 Mar 2017 10:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-februaryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-februaryU.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge increased to 113.4 from a 113.0 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG inched up further in February, staying in a cyclical upswing," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures...ECRIFri, 10 Mar 2017 09:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-outlook-good-sustained-3-4-gdp-growth-unlikelyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cyclical-outlook-good-sustained-3-4-gdp-growth-unlikelyInterview summary: · With the Weekly Leading Index growth turning up well before the election, and remaining in a decisive uptrend the current upturn in economic growth – which began months ago – will continue. GDP growth is already ticking up . This is a 180 degree change from a year ago.· The sustained 3 to 4% GDP growth promised by the Trump administration is questionable, since the math jus...ECRIWed, 08 Mar 2017 14:11:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-msnbc-tv-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-msnbc-tv-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on MSNBC Live with Ali Velshi on Wednesday, March 8th at 11:50 AM .ECRIWed, 08 Mar 2017 11:05:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ecb-risks-inflation-surprisehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ecb-risks-inflation-surpriseWidespread inflation cycle upswings across the advanced economies are now in evidence, thoroughly vindicating our “global reflation” call last summer. A case in point is the Eurozone, where year-over-year growth in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices has surged to the 2% target set by the European Central Bank , following the earlier upturn in ECRI’s Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , as sho...ECRIWed, 08 Mar 2017 08:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ecb-mistaking-structural-for-cyclicalhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ecb-mistaking-structural-for-cyclicalA key reason central banks have sustained prodigious amounts of QE is their misplaced belief that highly accommodative monetary policy would heal labor markets – even though much of their problems are structural. The Eurozone is a case in point. While the Eurozone jobless rate has fallen from its record high of 12.1% in April 2013 to 9.6% today – the lowest since May 2009 – it still remains abo...ECRIMon, 06 Mar 2017 08:59:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-us-weekly-leading-index-increasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-us-weekly-leading-index-increasedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 145.4 from 144.7. The growth rate ticked down to 10.2% from 10.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Elle.- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Finanacial Sense.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 03 Mar 2017 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-canadian-job-market-still-healing-as-part-time-jobs-dominatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-canadian-job-market-still-healing-as-part-time-jobs-dominateCanada’s labor market remains a concern, since the vast majority of jobs added in January – and in 2016 – were for part-time positions. The Canadian job market has been slowly recovering from the 2014 oil shock, which Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz recently characterized as setting the economy “back for two, three years.” In this context, ECRI’s Canadian Coincident Employment Index is in...ECRIThu, 02 Mar 2017 08:58:17 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-inflation-weighs-on-korean-consumerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-inflation-weighs-on-korean-consumerThere are growing concerns about Korean stagflation, similar to what ECRI correctly predicted for the U.S. early last year. Indeed, Korean CPI inflation climbed to 2% in January, meeting the Bank of Korea’s inflation target for the first time in more than four years. That increase was consistent with earlier move in our Korean Future Inflation Gauge and our global reflation call from last summe...ECRIMon, 27 Feb 2017 08:58:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-8The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 144.6 from 144.5. The growth rate decreased to 10.5% from 11.1%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Elle.- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Finanacial Sense.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on MSNBC.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, se...ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2017 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-why-women-aren-t-entering-the-workforce-like-they-were-in-the-90shttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-why-women-aren-t-entering-the-workforce-like-they-were-in-the-90sPresident Trump has said repeatedly that jobs are one of his top priorities. He's promised to add 25 million jobs over eight years and his newly-minted Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has promised our economy will grow at a rate of 3 or 4 percent. But if Trump and Mnuchin are going to deliver on those promises, they're not going to be able to do it by helping only the white working-class me...ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2017 09:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-how-reliable-are-gdp-consensus-forecastshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-how-reliable-are-gdp-consensus-forecastsWith President Trump in office, economists have been revising their GDP growth forecasts for 2017. This is a good time to review why consensus forecasts are unable to anticipate changes in the cyclical direction of growth, let alone recessions. In this regard, we explained in 2001 that “consensus forecasts have never predicted a recession because they are based on extrapolative models and misun...ECRIThu, 23 Feb 2017 12:09:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rbi-sees-multiple-fed-rate-hikeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rbi-sees-multiple-fed-rate-hikesPersistently high levels of core inflation, the impact of remonetisation on economic activity and the possibility of capital outflow driven by global conditions were the deciding factors behind the monetary policy committee’s decision to hold the repo rate at 6.25% at its February 7-8 meeting.All six members of the committee had voted unanimously in favour of leaving the policy rate unchanged. ...ECRIThu, 23 Feb 2017 11:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreased-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreased-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 144.5 from 145.5. The growth rate ticked down to 11.1% from 11.7%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - listen to Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Finanacial Sense.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on MSNBC.- read ECRI's "Future Inflation Gauge Leads Inflation Expectations".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. ...ECRIFri, 17 Feb 2017 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-moving-for-work-not-really-an-option-for-manyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-moving-for-work-not-really-an-option-for-manyECRI has long cut through the happy talk regarding the labor market during the Obama administration, and last November showed that, since the pre-Great Recession employment peak in November 2007, “Whites, who made up over 81% of the labor force in 2007, accounted for negative 9% of the net job gains.” While at the time this insight confused many economic observers, it helped explain the electio...ECRIWed, 15 Feb 2017 08:57:07 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-economy-experiencing-bona-fide-upturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-economy-experiencing-bona-fide-upturnGood news! After two years of slowing economic growth, leading indicators for the US have decisively turned upwards, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan recently told FS Insider.Achuthan is the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute where they specialize in forecasting key turning points in business cycles around the globe.“Bona Fide Growth Rate Cycle Upturn”“The crosscurrents that we were se...ECRITue, 14 Feb 2017 09:31:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-economy-experiencing-bona-fide-upturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-economy-experiencing-bona-fide-upturnGood news! After two years of slowing economic growth, leading indicators for the US have decisively turned upwards, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan recently told FS Insider.Achuthan is the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute where they specialize in forecasting key turning points in business cycles around the globe.“Bona Fide Growth Rate Cycle Upturn”“The crosscurrents that we were se...ECRIMon, 13 Feb 2017 09:41:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-7The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 145.6 from 145.2. The growth rate remained virtually unchanged at 11.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on MSNBC.- read ECRI's "Future Inflation Gauge Leads Inflation Expectations".- read ECRI's "Women’s Labor Force Participation Down, Capping Jobs & Economic Growth".For a closer lo...ECRIFri, 10 Feb 2017 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-vail-client-meetinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-vail-client-meetingECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be meeting with clients in Vail on February 9 and 10. ECRIThu, 09 Feb 2017 11:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increased-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increased-2The level of the monthly WLI rose to 143.1 from 141.7.The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 11.8% from 11.3%, an 81-month high, highest since April 2010.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on MSNBC.- read ECRI's "Future Inflation Gauge Leads Inflation Expectations".ECRIWed, 08 Feb 2017 08:58:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-threat-to-german-exports-from-protectionist-shifts-in-u-s-trade-policyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-threat-to-german-exports-from-protectionist-shifts-in-u-s-trade-policyThe German economy remains highly dependent on trade, with exports accounting for nearly half of GDP. Given its significance, there is a growing fear that the Trump administration’s plans to overhaul U.S. trade policy will harm German exports. However, while the U.S. is now the biggest single-country export destination for Germany, exports to the U.S. account for less than 10% of total German e...ECRITue, 07 Feb 2017 08:57:52 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-immigration-women-key-to-job-growth-goalshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-immigration-women-key-to-job-growth-goalsWith a goal of adding 25 million new jobs in eight years, the math does not work unless we have a surge in labor force participation, or in immigration. That math gets even tougher if the current rate of immigration is reduced.The population is growing much slower than in 1950s, ‘60s and ‘70s, which was the post World War II baby boom. Within that slower growing population the so-called “labor ...ECRIMon, 06 Feb 2017 09:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-msnbc-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-msnbc-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on MSNBC's AM Joy on Saturday, February 4th at 11:15 AM.ECRISat, 04 Feb 2017 10:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-employment-report-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-employment-report-inflationSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2017 13:11:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters's Trading at Noon on Friday, February 3rd at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2017 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchanged-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchanged-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index unchanged at 145.1. The growth rate ticked down to 11.8% from 11.9%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read ECRI's "Future Inflation Gauge Leads Inflation Expectations".- read ECRI's "Women’s Labor Force Participation Down, Capping Jobs & Economic Growth".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below...ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2017 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-future-inflation-gauge-leads-inflation-expectationshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-future-inflation-gauge-leads-inflation-expectationsECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge turned up ahead of inflation expectations, and remains in a cyclical upturn.The chart shows that the USFIG was already in a strong upturn last July, so even though market inflation expectations was way down, we knew that a major upshift in the inflation cycle was at hand.Of course, since then, inflation expectations have risen significantly. Since the summer w...ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2017 09:36:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-trump-will-need-dramatic-surge-in-immigration-to-reach-job-goals-studyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-trump-will-need-dramatic-surge-in-immigration-to-reach-job-goals-studyThe president famed for his “grab ‘em by the p***y” comment, and who just banned visitors from seven Muslim-majority countries, may need to get much friendlier with women and immigrants.A new analysis says the only way President Donald Trump can meet his job-creation goal is to increase the U.S.’s rate of immigration or encourage more women to join the workforce.In a statement on The White Hous...ECRIThu, 02 Feb 2017 13:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-prospects-for-french-manufacturinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-prospects-for-french-manufacturingCatching the consensus off guard, Eurozone industrial production growth surged in November – helped by the stronger-than-expected French IP growth reading . To know if the improvement in French IP growth is merely a spike or the start of a true cyclical upturn, we look to ECRI’s French Leading Manufacturing Index , which consistently anticipates cyclical turns in French IP growth.  Indeed, foll...ECRIThu, 02 Feb 2017 09:05:30 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-women-s-labor-force-participation-down-capping-jobs-economic-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-women-s-labor-force-participation-down-capping-jobs-economic-growthWithout a dramatic surge in the number of women joining the labor force – or immigration – it will be virtually impossible to add 25 million jobs in the next eight years, as the Trump administration has promised. This is because a key measure of economic health, the percentage of people participating in the work force , that showed positive trends in the 20th century, has been going in the wron...ECRIWed, 01 Feb 2017 09:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-6The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 145.1 from 144.8. The growth rate ticked up to 11.9% from 11.7%, a 350-week high, highest since May 7, 2010.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Cutting Through the Confusion".- read ECRI's "Global Economy Caught in Structural Straitjacket".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the c...ECRIFri, 27 Jan 2017 10:21:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cutting-through-the-confusionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cutting-through-the-confusionA key reason November’s election results shocked the consensus was that a litany of standard statistics, designed to measure aggregate economic activity, showed the U.S. to be a long way from the depths of the Great Recession, having enjoyed the longest stretch of positive job growth on record. Few mainstream economists had bothered to dig below the surface of those headline numbers to understa...ECRIThu, 26 Jan 2017 11:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cutting-through-the-confusionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cutting-through-the-confusionA key reason November’s election results shocked the consensus was that a litany of standard statistics, designed to measure aggregate economic activity, showed the U.S. to be a long way from the depths of the Great Recession, having enjoyed the longest stretch of positive job growth on record. Few mainstream economists had bothered to dig below the surface of those headline numbers to understa...ECRIThu, 26 Jan 2017 09:30:03 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-economy-gaught-in-structural-straitjackethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-economy-gaught-in-structural-straitjacketThe global economy is currently experiencing a period of rising growth and inflation, which we flagged before the November election. But, contrary to popular belief, these cyclical swings are not likely to negate the long-term structural trends affecting the global economy.In early 2015, well before the stance of the Trump administration regarding international trade came into focus, it was cle...ECRIMon, 23 Jan 2017 09:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rose-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rose-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 145.0 from 144.6. The growth rate edged up to 12.0% from 11.9%, a 349-week high, highest since May 7, 2010.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's recent presentation in Hong Kong on Disentangling Cyclical from Structural.- read ECRI's "2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook".For a closer look at recent moves in the U...ECRIFri, 20 Jan 2017 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-exports-key-to-canadian-economy-in-2017http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-exports-key-to-canadian-economy-in-2017The Bank of Canada hopes that exports, along with manufacturing, can drive growth in 2017, as the housing market shows signs of cooling after surging last year. However, there are concerns about export prospects, given that export growth was quite weak for much of 2016, despite a spike in November. Furthermore, with the U.S. being the top destination for Canadian exports, there are fears that t...ECRIThu, 19 Jan 2017 08:56:14 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-disentangling-cyclical-from-structuralhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-disentangling-cyclical-from-structuralOn January 6th ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan gave a talk in Hong Kong titled, "Disentangling Cyclical from Structural".  Click here for a PDF file of the presentation slides including notes. ECRITue, 17 Jan 2017 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-disentangling-cyclical-from-structuralhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-disentangling-cyclical-from-structuralOn January 6th ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan gave a talk in Hong Kong titled, "Disentangling Cyclical from Structural".Click here for a PDF file of the presentation slides including notes.ECRITue, 17 Jan 2017 08:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-6The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 144.9 from 144.6. The growth rate edged up to 12.2% from 12.0%, a 348-week high, highest since May 7, 2010.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read ECRI's "2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook". - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart...ECRIFri, 13 Jan 2017 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2016-shapes-2017-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2016-shapes-2017-cyclical-outlookECRI’s 2016 track record has been posted with many of the cyclical forecasts continuing into 2017, including reflation calls for both the U.S. and global economy, a global industrial upturn call, and a U.S. growth rate cycle upturn call:October 2016: Improving global growth outlook.September 2016: Global industrial growth boosting commodity prices, affirming ECRI's call for global industrial gr...ECRIFri, 13 Jan 2017 08:53:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-rose-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-rose-2The level of the monthly WLI rose to 142.1 from 139.0.The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 11.8% from 8.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Bloomberg.ECRITue, 10 Jan 2017 08:58:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japanese-business-investment-drags-on-gdphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japanese-business-investment-drags-on-gdpAfter a stronger-than-expected initial reading, Japan’s Q3 2016 GDP growth was revised down in December to 1.3%, mainly due to business spending growth being cut from zero to -0.4%. This followed the Cabinet Office’s implementation of a new methodology in December that used businesses’ capital expenditure data to calculate business spending. Thus, the outlook for capital expenditures has recent...ECRIMon, 09 Jan 2017 09:21:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 144.7 from 144.0. The growth rate increased to 12.0% from 11.8%, highest since May 7, 2010, a 347-week high.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Bloomberg.- read Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on The Economic Times.- read ECRI's "Pinching Productivity". For a closer look at recen...ECRIFri, 06 Jan 2017 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-dips-in-decemberhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-dips-in-decemberU.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 113.0 from a downwardly revised 113.6 reading in November, first reported as 113.8, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG slipped in December, while staying near November's 8½-year high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achutha...ECRIFri, 06 Jan 2017 09:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-cyclical-growth-inflation-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-cyclical-growth-inflation-outlookThe Message from ECRI’s Leading Indexes of Economic Growth and Inflation:ECRI leading indexes of global growth and inflation had separately turned up prior to the U.S. election. While the “Trump effect” is real, a major part of the story has to do with these cyclical fundamentals.In fact, 10-year yields have risen in line with our cyclical leading indexes, with about half the rise in U.S. rates...ECRIThu, 05 Jan 2017 09:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-hong-kong-membershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-hong-kong-membersLakshman Achuthan will visit Hong Kong to meet with professional members and give a private talk, January 4 - 6, 2017.ECRIThu, 05 Jan 2017 08:54:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bloomberg-tvhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bloomberg-tvOn January 4 at 7:40PM ET ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg TV's Daybreak Asia.ECRIWed, 04 Jan 2017 18:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-growth-outlookFollowing on the global industrial growth upturn we flagged last summer, the growth outlook for the overall global economy has shown some signs of revival. Specifically, ECRI’s 20-Country Coincident Index Growth Diffusion Index has risen above its recent multiyear lows, having picked up since July . This index and the corresponding 20-Country Long Leading Index Growth Diffusion Index measure th...ECRIWed, 04 Jan 2017 08:58:24 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-5The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 144.0 from 143.9. The growth rate increased to 11.8% from 11.3%, highest since May 7, 2010, a 346-week high.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read ECRI's "Pinching Productivity". - read Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on The Washington Post.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart b...ECRIFri, 30 Dec 2016 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-indian-leading-indexes-rbi-governor-urjit-patel-in-favour-of-retaining-repo-rate-says-demonetisation-impact-to-be-transitoryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-indian-leading-indexes-rbi-governor-urjit-patel-in-favour-of-retaining-repo-rate-says-demonetisation-impact-to-be-transitoryRBI Governor Urjit Patel voted for status quo on the key interest rate arguing that the central bank needs to remain focused on inflation target as the impact of demonetisation on economy is uncertain, though transitory.Releasing today the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on December 6-7, Reserve Bank of India said all the six members of the panel were in favour of retainin...ECRIFri, 30 Dec 2016 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2016-a-year-defined-by-america-s-diverging-economieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2016-a-year-defined-by-america-s-diverging-economiesIn many ways, 2016 has been the strongest year, economically, since the mid-2000s, or even the late 1990s. Unemployment was low. Wages were increasing. The markets hit new highs. Consumer confidence rose. Yet Donald Trump unseated the incumbent party and won the presidential election promoting economic pessimism and promising restoration: He swore to Make America Great Again, describing the cou...ECRIFri, 30 Dec 2016 10:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-german-manufacturing-growth-improvehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-german-manufacturing-growth-improveAfter a tumultuous year for Germany’s export-oriented economy and weak Q3 2016 GDP growth, concerns remain for the key manufacturing sector. Even with the German manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index increasing further, our German Coincident Manufacturing Index points to weakness in the manufacturing sector.Indeed, year-over-year growth in ECRI’s GECMI – a comprehensive measure of manufacturi...ECRIThu, 29 Dec 2016 11:20:41 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-wages-eat-into-profit-marginshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-wages-eat-into-profit-marginsAfter shrinking in recent years, corporate profit margins have been boosted by the nascent improvement in economic conditions. In particular, corporate profits as a percentage of GDP fell back by nearly 2½ percentage points between late 2011 and the end of 2015, but then recently reversed a third of that drop . Meanwhile, employee compensation as a percentage of GDP, which had dropped to a reco...ECRITue, 27 Dec 2016 09:16:31 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-5The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 143.9 from 143.3. The growth rate rose to 11.3% from 10.8%, highest since May 7, 2010, a 345-week high.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read ECRI's "Pinching Productivity". - read Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on The Washington Post.- read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on The New York Times.For a closer look at recent mo...ECRIFri, 23 Dec 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-pinching-productivityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-pinching-productivityThere’s a widespread expectation, based on President-elect Donald Trump’s statements, of major tax reforms that incentivize corporations to repatriate trillions of dollars in profits stashed overseas, and invest that money within the U.S. Whether this is likely to happen in practice is a key question. For example, when asked earlier this month what his firm – one of the biggest potential benefi...ECRIFri, 23 Dec 2016 08:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-international-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-international-home-price-outlookYears of extremely low interest rates around the world have helped foster housing bubbles in several markets. This, in turn, has both increased fears of a price collapse and heightened anxieties surrounding housing affordability. These housing bubbles are evident from measures of housing affordability for the major English-speaking economies , defined as the ratio of nominal home prices to nomi...ECRIWed, 21 Dec 2016 08:56:20 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-who-picked-trump-mrs-white-in-the-kitchen-sorting-bills-the-economy-stupidhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-who-picked-trump-mrs-white-in-the-kitchen-sorting-bills-the-economy-stupidWhat swung the election to Trump?The way some people are talking, it's resembling a game of Clue.    * Was it Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin with the propaganda? The CIA seems to suggest such.    * Was it Roger Ailes at Fox News with an agenda? Outgoing president Obama says so.    * Or was it Dr. Evil in a secret underground lair with a diabolical cat?You get the idea.The problem is that there a...ECRITue, 20 Dec 2016 08:56:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-great-neglect-of-american-infrastructurehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-great-neglect-of-american-infrastructureFor years, politicians have bandied about infrastructure spending as a potential panacea for slowing U.S. economic growth, given the prospect of both short-term gains – new construction jobs – and potential long-term benefits – increased productivity. Now, with President-elect Trump coming into office alongside a Republican-controlled Congress, there is an expectation that a massive boost to in...ECRIMon, 19 Dec 2016 09:35:18 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-no-minority-workers-are-not-taking-jobs-away-from-white-peoplehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-no-minority-workers-are-not-taking-jobs-away-from-white-peopleNo, minority workers are not taking jobs away from white people.Yet, that's the conclusion some drew from a controversial report recently released by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. After a New York Times columnist wrote about the report this week -- highlighting the disparity in recent job gains by race -- readers have resolved whites were "left out" of the nation's financial recovery a...ECRISat, 17 Dec 2016 11:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-only-retirement-age-whites-gain-jobs-sharehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-only-retirement-age-whites-gain-jobs-shareFor Whom the Bell TollsOver two years ago Fed Chair Yellen suggested that retirees take part-time jobs to make ends meet. That looks to be essentially what has happened.But for the prime-working-age population , the employment/population ratio has declined for Whites, Asians and Hispanics, but increased for Blacks, since the November 2007 peak in employment. As a result, though the percentage e...ECRIFri, 16 Dec 2016 11:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-4The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 143.4 from 143.1, the highest since June 8, 2007, a 496-week high. The growth rate increased to 11.0% from 9.7%, the highest since May 7, 2010, a 344-week high.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters. - read Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on The New York Times.For a closer...ECRIFri, 16 Dec 2016 10:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-fed-rate-hike-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-fed-rate-hike-1See link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the rate hike and Chairman Yellen's comment in the context of the cyclical outlook for growth and inflation.ECRIWed, 14 Dec 2016 17:56:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-fed-rate-hikehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-fed-rate-hikeLakshman Achuthan talks with Bobbi Rebell about the Fed's decision to raise rates by a quarter of a point.ECRIWed, 14 Dec 2016 17:33:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-where-were-trumpa-s-votes-where-the-jobs-werena-thttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-where-were-trumpa-s-votes-where-the-jobs-werena-tDid the white working class vote its economic interests?The day after the presidential election — in a long and brooding interview with Rolling Stone magazine — President Obama offered his take on why blue-collar whites flocked so decidedly to Donald J. Trump.“This is not simply an economic issue,” Mr. Obama concluded. “This is a cultural issue. And a communications issue.” From family leave an...ECRITue, 13 Dec 2016 09:39:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-rose-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-rose-1The level of the monthly WLI rose to 138.9 from 137.2.The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 8.5% from 7.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on NBR.- read ECRI's "A Tale of Two Job Markets."ECRIMon, 12 Dec 2016 09:56:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-5The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 143.2 from 142.1, the highest since July 13, 2007. The growth rate rose to 9.7% from 8.3%, highest since May 7, 2010.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on NBR. - read ECRI's "A Tale of Two Job Markets".- Read ECRI's "All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify".For a closer look at recent move...ECRIFri, 09 Dec 2016 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-risks-to-u-s-in-potential-trade-conflicthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-risks-to-u-s-in-potential-trade-conflictA key uncertainty about the Trump administration’s economic policies is its stance on international trade. This is especially important because the U.S. economy has become more export-dependent in recent decades, with U.S. exports running at about 13% of GDP, or one and a half times what it was at the end of the 2001 recession. Consequently, should the U.S. raise some trade barriers, it would b...ECRIThu, 08 Dec 2016 08:55:43 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-rises-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-rises-againECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge continues to climb. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.The USFIG moved up in November to a 102-month high. Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still mounting.ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2016 11:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 142.1 from 141.8. The growth rate increased to 8.3% from 7.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on NBR. - Read ECRI's "All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify" - read ECRI's "A Tale of Two Job Markets"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart...ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2016 10:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-multiple-jobs-needed-to-make-ends-meet-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-multiple-jobs-needed-to-make-ends-meet-1Growth in multiple jobholders continues to trend up . Meanwhile, single jobholder growth remains in an easing trend, falling to a six-month low in November .The message is clear: with wage growth unable to keep pace with inflation, more people need to work multiple lower-paying jobs in order to make ends meet.ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2016 09:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-sustained-3-to-4-gdp-growth-remains-a-huge-stretchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-sustained-3-to-4-gdp-growth-remains-a-huge-stretchSome of Mr. Mnuchin’s proposals are good things and probably will help, but if you look at the foundational math it doesn’t add up. Mr. Mnuchin promised “sustained 3 to 4% GDP” growth. Let’s split the difference and call it 3½%. That’s a huge stretch because the building blocks of potential GDP growth add up to only around 1%:Potential labor force growth is projected to be less than ½%, plus pr...ECRIThu, 01 Dec 2016 09:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-s-nightly-business-report-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-cnbc-s-nightly-business-report-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC's Nightly Business Report with Sue Herera and Tyler Mathisen tonight at 6:30 PM EST.ECRIWed, 30 Nov 2016 16:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-tale-of-two-job-marketshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-tale-of-two-job-marketsWith the economic expansion in its eighth year, over 15 million jobs added since the post-recession low in employment, and a steady decline in the jobless rate from its recessionary high of 10% to under 5%, many mainstream economists were convinced that the U.S. economy was in good shape. That misconception, at least where jobs are concerned, is a key reason so many were stunned by this month’s...ECRIWed, 30 Nov 2016 08:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-export-outlook-critical-as-global-trade-concerns-mounthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-export-outlook-critical-as-global-trade-concerns-mountWhile the consensus was relieved by the weak but positive growth in the Eurozone in the months following the Brexit vote, as Q3 2016 GDP growth held steady at 0.3%, clouds remain on the horizon with concerns about trade. The U.K. and the U.S. are the Eurozone’s main trading partners and uncertainties abound regarding Brexit talks and U.S. trade prospects following the surprise U.S. election of ...ECRIMon, 28 Nov 2016 09:31:21 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-4The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 141.6 from 139.2. The growth rate rises to 7.1% from 6.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Forbes. - Read ECRI's "All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify".- read ECRI's "Plunging Predictions".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIWed, 23 Nov 2016 10:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-trump-and-chinese-export-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-trump-and-chinese-export-prospectsWith the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. President, the U.S.-China trade relationship is receiving a lot of attention, particularly with regard to how the protectionist policies advocated by Mr. Trump could impact U.S. trade with China. While exports remain important for the Chinese economy, it has transitioned somewhat away from an export-led to a more domestic-consumption-oriented e...ECRIMon, 21 Nov 2016 09:47:34 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-4The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.2 from 138.6. The growth rate ticked down to 6.2% from 6.6%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Forbes. - Read ECRI's "All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify".- read ECRI's "Plunging Predictions".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the char...ECRIFri, 18 Nov 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-all-of-a-sudden-inflation-fears-intensifyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-all-of-a-sudden-inflation-fears-intensifyInflation expectations haven’t been this high in over a decade, according to a recent survey of money managers, whose “stagflation expectations” are approaching a four-year high. While these are partly post-election pops, they’ve really been rising since the summer, when bond yields bottomed. Please recall that, back in March, ECRI cautioned that “underlying inflation pressures — though relativ...ECRIThu, 17 Nov 2016 09:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-is-going-to-rise-here-s-how-to-protect-yourselfhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-is-going-to-rise-here-s-how-to-protect-yourselfSomething ugly is set to make a comeback: inflation.It won't be like that seen in the 1970s when lava lamps and polyester suits only added to the hideous economic malaise.This time it will be subdued in comparison, but still higher than it has been in recent years.The consumer price index, which is a measure of consumer inflation, has remained less than 2 percent for most of the last four years...ECRITue, 15 Nov 2016 11:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2-year-long-u-s-downward-cyclical-growth-mode-won-t-turn-on-a-dimehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2-year-long-u-s-downward-cyclical-growth-mode-won-t-turn-on-a-dimeSummary- Two-year-long U.S. downward cyclical growth mode won’t turn on a dime.- U.S. economy is not in a recessionary window of vulnerability.- Major fiscal push by Trump can add to inflation, cause Fed rate hike.Lakshman Achuthan is co-founder and chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.Harlan Levy: What's your outlook on the U.S. economy and its potential for growth...ECRIMon, 14 Nov 2016 10:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-plunging-predictionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-plunging-predictionsThe IMF’s five-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP growth for most major economies have seen major declines in recent years. A case in point is the U.S., whose GDP growth forecast has been slashed to 1.6%, less than half the high of 3.4% from five years ago . Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s GDP growth forecast has been reduced to just under 1.5% – only five-eighths of the 2.4% estimated in the spring of...ECRIMon, 14 Nov 2016 09:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 138.6 from 138.4. The growth rate decreased to 6.7% from 7.3%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Forbes. - read ECRI's "Shunted to the Sidelines" - read ECRI's "Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart be...ECRIFri, 11 Nov 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-no-a-global-recession-isn-t-imminenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-no-a-global-recession-isn-t-imminentSee link below to watch the interview on Forbes.Many were shocked by Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House. Still, there is no need for hysteria. Unfortunately, some people couldn’t contain themselves.Notably, there have been claims that the result of the vote will be instant economic disaster, not just for the U.S., but for the entire world. Fortunately, things a...ECRIThu, 10 Nov 2016 15:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticked-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticked-downThe level of the monthly WLI ticked down to 137.2 from 137.7.The growth rate of the monthly WLI decreased to 7.2% from 8.9%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears a...ECRIThu, 10 Nov 2016 09:41:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-nafta-has-had-limited-impact-on-trade-deficits-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-nafta-has-had-limited-impact-on-trade-deficits-jobsIn this U.S. presidential election cycle, the North American Free Trade Agreement , which liberalized trade among the U.S., Mexico and Canada, has become a hot-button issue. Much of the debate surrounding NAFTA centers on whether it has cost the U.S. jobs, particularly in manufacturing, and if it is responsible for the U.S. trade deficits with Mexico and Canada. The fact is that this is a reduc...ECRIMon, 07 Nov 2016 09:34:25 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-yes-wages-are-rising-faster-than-in-several-years-no-that-isna-t-greathttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-yes-wages-are-rising-faster-than-in-several-years-no-that-isna-t-greatThe monthly jobs report from the Labor Department said wages are growing at the fastest rate since the economic recovery started seven years. That’s good, certainly. But labor market experts looking at the bigger picture might revise that assessment downward for working Americans to kind of OK.ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2016 18:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, November 4th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2016 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-down-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 138.4 from 138.6. The growth rate decreased to 7.3% from 8.0%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters. - Read ECRI's "Shunted to the Sidelines" - read ECRI's "Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2016 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-octoberhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-octoberU.S. inflationary pressures were up in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.7 from an upwardly revised 113.2 reading in September, first reported as 113.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG increased in October to a 101-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlyin...ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2016 10:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cautionary-signs-for-consumer-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cautionary-signs-for-consumer-spendingConsumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, is critical to the Fed’s optimistic view on the economy as it prepares to hike rates in December. However, consumer spending slowed in the third quarter, and this week’s Fed statement downgraded consumer spending, saying it is “rising moderately,” and no longer “growing strongly.”Indeed, there are reasons for concern. This is evident fro...ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2016 09:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-u-k-manufacturing-growth-prospects-offer-a-silver-lininghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-u-k-manufacturing-growth-prospects-offer-a-silver-liningWhile Q3 U.K. real GDP growth eased less than the consensus expected, and recession fears have tapered after the Brexit vote, economic growth remains weak. In any event, those recession fears were unfounded given that ECRI pointed out right after the referendum that “a recession is still unlikely to result until the economy enters a window of vulnerability… a condition that was not fulfilled go...ECRIThu, 03 Nov 2016 09:01:52 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-trouble-with-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-trouble-with-inflationFed Chairman Janet Yellen recently offered up arguments in favor of running a “high-pressure economy” to repair the damage done by the Great Recession. Yet, the economy may already be running hotter than she thinks. With ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge climbing to a 99-month high, cyclical inflation pressures have strengthened considerably . Meanwhile, year-over-year CPI inflation has climbe...ECRIWed, 02 Nov 2016 08:01:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shunted-to-the-sidelineshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shunted-to-the-sidelinesThe employment/population ratio peaked at 65% in the spring of 2000. After two 21st century recessions, it then bottomed out at 58% in mid-2011. Since then, it’s clawed back less than a quarter of that loss .Yet, the gains have been far from uniform across demographics. Among those with at least a high school diploma, the E/P ratio – about 80% back in 2000 – now stands around 75%, with the gap ...ECRIMon, 31 Oct 2016 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreased-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreased-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.6 from 139.6. The growth rate edged down to 8.0% from 9.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters. - read ECRI's "Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless" - read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, se...ECRIFri, 28 Oct 2016 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increased-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increased-1The level of the monthly WLI increased to 137.0 from 136.1.The growth rate of the monthly WLI rose to 8.0% from 7.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below:- read Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg.- read ECRI's "“Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless."ECRIWed, 26 Oct 2016 09:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-more-workers-need-multiple-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-more-workers-need-multiple-jobsThe Fed continues to push the notion that the job market is “improving,” as Chairman Yellen described it last month, but that is an overly generous portrayal. Indeed, household employment growth has been largely flat since the spring, and nonfarm employment growth is just above a 40-month low . Furthermore, the weak household employment growth is being boosted by the trend we highlighted nearly...ECRITue, 25 Oct 2016 09:04:34 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-recession-risk-fed-fiscal-policy-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-recession-risk-fed-fiscal-policy-1Issues discussed during the interview include: Current growth rate cycle downturn almost two years old, data that define the economic cycle, and how growth rate cycles differ from business cycles. Why early vs. late innings of expansion or “typical” length of expansion is a meaningless way of looking at the business cycle. No U.S. recession imminent, but possible later in 2017. Fed finding it t...ECRIFri, 21 Oct 2016 12:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-recession-risk-fed-fiscal-policyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-recession-risk-fed-fiscal-policyIssues discussed during the interview include: Current growth rate cycle downturn almost two years old, data that define the economic cycle, and how growth rate cycles differ from business cycles. Why early vs. late innings of expansion or “typical” length of expansion is a meaningless way of looking at the business cycle. No U.S. recession imminent, but possible later in 2017. Fed finding it t...ECRIFri, 21 Oct 2016 12:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-up-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 139.6 from 139.5. The growth rate ticks down to 8.5% from 8.6%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on The Telegraph "Fed Risks Lehman Blunder Repeat as US Recession Storm Gathers". - read ECRI's "“Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless".- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.For...ECRIFri, 21 Oct 2016 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-improving-labor-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-improving-labor-marketFed Chairman Janet Yellen paints a rosy picture of a robust labor market that “is attracting people from outside the labor force back into employment.” Indeed, in her latest press conference, Ms. Yellen — pointing to the uptick in the labor force as an indication that monetary policy was working — went on to say that “[c]onditions in the labor market are strengthening, and we expect that to con...ECRIThu, 20 Oct 2016 08:58:18 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-risks-lehman-blunder-repeat-as-us-recession-storm-gathershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-risks-lehman-blunder-repeat-as-us-recession-storm-gathersThe risk of a US recession next year is rising fast. The Federal Reserve has no margin for error.Liquidity is suddenly drying up. Early warning indicators from US 'flow of funds' data point to an incipent squeeze, the long-feared capitulation after five successive quarters of declining corporate profits.Yet the Fed is methodically draining money through 'reverse repos' regardless. It has set th...ECRIThu, 20 Oct 2016 05:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-ticks-downThe U.S. Coincident Index ticked down to 171.1 in September from 171.2 in August. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, decreased to 1.3% from 1.6%.The chart shows that this reading is lowest since December 2013, a 33 month low, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth ...ECRIWed, 19 Oct 2016 09:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-early-and-late-cycle-verdicts-are-baselesshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-early-and-late-cycle-verdicts-are-baselessThe current U.S. expansion, now in its eighth year, has lasted a year longer than the previous expansion and is substantially longer than the historical average. This has led to many pronouncements that we are in the “late cycle” phase of this economic expansion, which must therefore end soon. In other words, despite the truism that “expansions don’t die of old age,” there is a widespread belie...ECRIMon, 17 Oct 2016 14:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-the-next-recession-is-coming-big-dealhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-the-next-recession-is-coming-big-dealIn a Wall Street Journal survey, a group of economists “put the odds of the next downturn happening within the next four years at nearly 60 percent.”  Oh no.Today, we will make another entry in the catalog of how worthless predictions tend to be, and more specifically why economists’ long-term forecasts are so uniquely useless.Let’s start with the math: Saying a recession might occur within the...ECRIMon, 17 Oct 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-ticked-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-ticked-downThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 139.6 from 139.7. The growth rate decreased to 8.8% from 9.2%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters.  - read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloomberg podcast.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading...ECRIFri, 14 Oct 2016 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-globalization-in-reversehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-globalization-in-reverseIn early 2015, we rhetorically asked “what did the global economy get for $11,000,000,000,000 in QE?” After a brief post-recession recovery, the volume of global export growth had fallen considerably, despite falling growth in export prices. By 2016, the situation had become worse, with the growth rates of both global export volumes and prices in negative territory. In this sense, globalization...ECRIWed, 12 Oct 2016 09:48:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-india-bucks-the-structural-trendhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-india-bucks-the-structural-trendWhile global growth decelerates and world export volumes decline, India is bucking the trend. Indeed, following the upturn in the growth rate of ECRI’s Indian Leading Exports Index , Indian export growth has topped a two year high .With exports accounting for over 20% of India’s GDP – having nearly doubled in 20 years – rising exports growth is even more critical. This is because, while it has ...ECRITue, 11 Oct 2016 09:18:01 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-simple-mathhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-simple-mathSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.Payroll jobs growth has been falling since early 2015, and has been stuck at a 26-month low for several months now. Similarly, yoy GDP growth is down to a three-year low. But at the same time, core PCE inflation, which the Fed focuses on, has run up to a 23-month high. In other words, growth is still slowing, and inflation is picking up at the...ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2016 13:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, October 7th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2016 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-increased-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-increased-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.2 from 139.0. The growth rate ticked down to 8.7% from 8.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Bloomberg TV.  - read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloomberg podcast.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading In...ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2016 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-septemberhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-septemberU.S. inflationary pressures were up in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.1 from an upwardly revised 112.7 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG increased in September to a 99-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying ...ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2016 10:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-economic-cycle-slowest-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-economic-cycle-slowest-recoveryDonald Trump is fond of saying Americans are living through the worst recovery in modern times.He blames President Obama for the sluggish economy and claims he can do far better."Now look, we have the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression," Trump said in the first debate. His running mate Mike Pence mentioned it in the vice presidential debate Tuesday night.Trump is right if yo...ECRIWed, 05 Oct 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-fed-moves-in-mysterious-wayshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-fed-moves-in-mysterious-waysFollowing last December’s rate hike, both the Fed and prominent Wall Street houses expected four or more rate hikes in 2016. In sharp contrast, ECRI stated that the “Fed’s rate hike plans [we]re on a collision course with the economic cycle.” By March it was clear that, “with U.S. economic growth sluggish and slowing, and inflation low but rising, the Fed [wa]s faced with… ‘stagflation lite.’"W...ECRITue, 04 Oct 2016 10:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-published-paper-cyclical-misconceptions-driving-policy-mistakeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-published-paper-cyclical-misconceptions-driving-policy-mistakesDownload the paper by clicking here.Key to the “productivity puzzle” – the downshift in productivity growth following the Great Recession – is the persistence of policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth, and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics. Indeed, a review of the various factors underlying the productivity growth slump does not support the longstanding...ECRIMon, 03 Oct 2016 09:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-edged-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-edged-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 139.0 from 138.9. The growth rate was virtually unchanged at 8.8%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV.  - read ECRI's "Fed Hold No Surprise"- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloomberg podcast.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading In...ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-hold-no-surprisehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-hold-no-surpriseThe final release of Q2 GDP this morning leaves its year-over-year growth rate at a three-year low of 1¼%, in line with the Fed’s decision to skip a rate hike in September. This weakness in GDP growth should come as no surprise to those who have been following our calls – specifically, the overall U.S. growth rate cycle downturn that began over a year and a half ago. This was the reason we warn...ECRIThu, 29 Sep 2016 09:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-inflation-can-complicate-the-boe-s-policy-optionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-inflation-can-complicate-the-boe-s-policy-optionsTo combat recession fears following the Brexit vote, the Bank of England quickly lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.25%. In a sign of how afraid they were, they also unveiled a new stimulus package to help boost growth.But even before the vote, ECRI held a contrarian view, namely, that “even though Brexit could be a negative shock to the economy, it is unlikely to tip it i...ECRIWed, 28 Sep 2016 09:12:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-unchangedThe U.S. Coincident Index was unchanged at 171.3 in August. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, ticked down to 1.6%.The chart shows that this reading is lowest since December 2013, a 32-month low, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for ove...ECRITue, 27 Sep 2016 09:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reflation-would-put-brazil-in-bindhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reflation-would-put-brazil-in-bindThe Banco Central do Brasil has remained focused on getting inflation under control during the current economic crisis, even as Brazilian GDP contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter in Q2. With the target rate fixed at a ten-year high of 14.25%, year-over-year CPI inflation has finally pulled back this year, ending the two-year inflation cycle upturn that saw CPI inflation nearly double.EC...ECRIFri, 23 Sep 2016 11:37:25 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-decreasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-decreasedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 138.9 from 139.6. The growth rate ticked up to 8.8% from 8.7%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV.  - read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Seeking Alpha "Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession"- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloom...ECRIFri, 23 Sep 2016 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-timing-bank-of-korea-s-next-movehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-timing-bank-of-korea-s-next-moveWith year-over-year CPI growth staying below the Bank of Korea’s 2% target for nearly four years, the recent cyclical downswing in CPI growth is of great concern to those wondering what the BoK’s next move will be. For a clearer picture, we examined ECRI’s Korean Future Inflation Gauge , designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in Korean inflation cycle.Last April, while the BoK expected ...ECRITue, 20 Sep 2016 09:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-fed-models-and-an-esoteric-long-leading-indexhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-fed-models-and-an-esoteric-long-leading-indexSummary of topics discussed on the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast:Q: The Fed has been criticized for not including financial markets in their model. Does ECRI use financial market data? A: Yes, we do use financial market data, although we don’t use models per se. In addition to using market data we also use government and private sector data sources.  Q: What kind of lead does market data have?...ECRIMon, 19 Sep 2016 11:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-increasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-increasedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 139.6 from 138.9. The growth rate edged up to 8.7% from 8.3%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV.  - read ECRI's "The Brecession Blunder"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 16 Sep 2016 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-update-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-update-1Summary of CommentsCollision CourseFed rate hike plans have been on a collision course with the economic cycle, and we’ve been saying this for over a year. Both GDP and payroll jobs growth have been falling since early 2015, and sit at 36 and 26 month lows respectively.  In the face of the slowdown, the Fed has been able to raise rates just once. Inflation UpturnAt the same time, our US Future ...ECRIFri, 16 Sep 2016 09:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-update Collision CourseFed rate hike plans have been on a collision course with the economic cycle, and we’ve been saying this for over a year. Both GDP and payroll jobs growth have been falling since early 2015, and sit at 36 and 26 month lows respectively.  In the face of the slowdown, the Fed has been able to raise rates just once. Inflation UpturnAt the same time, our US Future Inflation Gauge tu...ECRIFri, 16 Sep 2016 08:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-radio-interview-with-tom-keene-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-radio-interview-with-tom-keene-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene on Friday, September 16, at 7:00 AM . You can listen on: SiriusXM Ch. 119, Bloomberg Radio+ on iPhone, Bloomberg Radio+ on Android, Radio App iHeartRadio, Radio App TuneinECRIFri, 16 Sep 2016 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-6ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest host with Tom Keene on Friday, September 16, at 6:00 AM .ECRIFri, 16 Sep 2016 05:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-long-term-slowdown-in-u-s-growth-but-no-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-long-term-slowdown-in-u-s-growth-but-no-recessionSummary- GDP growth to stay 1.5%, long-term to 1%.- U.S. job growth to stay at two-year low, languishing under 1.5%.- Economic slowdown a major headwind for corporate earnings.- No new business investment with slowing, downward economic growth.Harlen Levy is H.L. and Lakshman Achuthan is L.A.H.L.: What's your overall view of the U.S. economy from the latest indicators and data?L.A.: First, the ...ECRIMon, 12 Sep 2016 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-edges-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 138.9 from 138.4. The growth rate increases to 8.3% from 8.1%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters TV.  - read ECRI's "The Brecession Blunder".For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 09 Sep 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-brecession-blunderhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-brecession-blunderDays before the Brexit vote – responding to client questions amid widespread fears about the economic threat to the U.K. – we said that, “even though Brexit could be a negative shock to the economy, it is unlikely to tip it into recession at this time.”Right after the Brexit vote, we followed up with a detailed analysis, justifying our conclusion that, “[w]hile potentially damaging longer-run U...ECRIWed, 07 Sep 2016 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-latest-jobs-data-in-contexthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-latest-jobs-data-in-contextSee link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.Coincident IndicatorsGood to see jobs growth continue, however, the cyclical downturn in year-over-year payroll job growth that began a year and a half ago continues, for last three months it’s been unchanged from May’s 26-month low of 1.7%.Yoy GDP growth has dropped to a 3-year low of 1.2% Meanwhile, yoy IP growth has been negative for last 1...ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2016 13:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-ticked-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-ticked-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 138.4 from 138.1. The growth rate remains unchanged at 8.1%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline"  - read ECRI's "Food Price Deflation to Let Up"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2016 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, September 2nd at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2016 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-declined-in-augusthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-declined-in-augustU.S. inflationary pressures were down in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 112.6 from an upwardly revised 113.0 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG slipped in August, while staying near July's 97-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. ...ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2016 09:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-amid-structural-lowflation-world-exports-declinehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-amid-structural-lowflation-world-exports-declineAs we first showed in early 2015, and expanded on this summer, trade continues to languish, with year-over-year global export volume growth slipping back below zero , even with yoy export price growth staying deep in deflationary territory . Indeed, world export prices have fallen by 21% since the summer of 2011, compared with their 22% plunge during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09. Whil...ECRIWed, 31 Aug 2016 09:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-food-price-deflation-to-let-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-food-price-deflation-to-let-upFollowing the spring 2015 upturn in the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge , year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index growth has picked up noticeably, despite hovering around 1% for the past few months. Meanwhile, yoy core CPI growth, which excludes food and energy, has topped 2% for the past nine months. A key reason for the gap between headline and core CPI inflation is that yoy CPI growth for f...ECRIMon, 29 Aug 2016 09:15:02 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-increasesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 138.1 from 137.8. The growth rate edged down to 8.1% from 8.4%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore"  - read ECRI's "Assessing Labor Market Strength"For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:ECRIFri, 26 Aug 2016 10:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-assessing-labor-market-strength-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-assessing-labor-market-strength-1After two months of strong employment reports, the Fed is convinced that the job market is now on the right track. Thus, New York Fed President William Dudley remarked that robust job growth has “helped allay concerns that arose earlier this year that job growth was beginning to stall. Indeed, these reports reinforce my view that labor market conditions continue to improve."But employment data ...ECRITue, 23 Aug 2016 09:08:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-down-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 137.8 from 137.9. The growth rate edged down to 8.4% from 8.7%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consens...ECRIFri, 19 Aug 2016 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-prospects-for-japanese-manufacturinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-prospects-for-japanese-manufacturingAfter Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory in parliamentary elections, people are becoming more optimistic about Japan’s economy. However, recent data for the manufacturing sector raises concerns. Under the circumstances, we closely monitor the Japanese Leading Manufacturing and Leading Exports Indexes, designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in manufacturing activity and export...ECRIThu, 18 Aug 2016 09:06:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-unchangedThe U.S. Coincident Index edged up to 170.8 in July from 170.3. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, remained same at 1.5%, a 30-month low.The chart shows that this reading is far below its January 2015 peak of 4.2%, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has be...ECRIWed, 17 Aug 2016 09:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchanged-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchanged-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index remains unchanged at 137.6. The growth rate ticked up to 8.4% from 8.3%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus fad...ECRIFri, 12 Aug 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-slowdown-jeopardizes-brazil-s-export-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-slowdown-jeopardizes-brazil-s-export-prospectsThe Brazilian economy has been mired in a crippling recession akin to a depression, as we explained in January. At the time, partly helped by the weakening real against a basket of currencies, increasingly positive export growth was one of the few bright spots in South America’s largest economy.Indeed, year-over-year growth in Brazilian real exports turned up in Q4 2014 and climbed to an 11-yea...ECRIThu, 11 Aug 2016 09:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 137.6 from 138.0. The growth rate edges up to 8.2% from 8.0%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded...ECRIFri, 05 Aug 2016 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-julyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-in-julyU.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 112.6 from an unrevised 111.4 reading in June, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG rose again to a 97-month high in July," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, cyclical inflation pressures are increasing inexorab...ECRIFri, 05 Aug 2016 09:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-is-realhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-is-realEarlier this year, we explained that the U.S. economy is experiencing “stagflation lite” – a cyclical upturn in inflation during an economic slowdown. This reality is becoming more and more apparent. In fact, growth in our coincident indexes for manufacturing and services has been slowing since early 2015.  Additionally, year-over-year core CPI inflation has already topped 2% for eight straight...ECRIThu, 04 Aug 2016 09:19:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-is-realhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-is-realEarlier this year, we explained that the U.S. economy is experiencing “stagflation lite” – a cyclical upturn in inflation during an economic slowdown. This reality is becoming more and more apparent. In fact, growth in our coincident indexes for manufacturing and services has been slowing since early 2015.  Additionally, year-over-year core CPI inflation has already topped 2% for eight straight...ECRIThu, 04 Aug 2016 09:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brexit-may-worsen-german-export-slowdown-german-exports-face-new-headwindhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brexit-may-worsen-german-export-slowdown-german-exports-face-new-headwindThe German trade imbalance has now become the largest in the world, even surpassing China’s. As the top exporter in the European Union, with exports accounting for nearly half of GDP, Germany has become heavily export-dependent.German real export growth has been slowing since Q2 2015, dropping to a two-and-a-half-year low in Q4 before edging up in Q1 2016. This downswing was correctly anticipat...ECRIMon, 01 Aug 2016 09:03:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-7The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 138.0 from 138.1. The growth rate increased to 8.0% from 7.5%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus fa...ECRIFri, 29 Jul 2016 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-getting-harder-to-ignorehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stagflation-lite-getting-harder-to-ignoreThe cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth that began more than a year ago remains intact, as shown by the year-over-year growth rate of ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index – which subsumes the aggregate measures of output, employment, income and sales that define the business cycle. USCI growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015 .Meanwhile, yoy growth in the core PCE deflato...ECRIWed, 27 Jul 2016 09:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 138.1 from 137.0. The growth rate rose to 7.5% from 6.9%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded...ECRIFri, 22 Jul 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shrinking-labor-force-distorts-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shrinking-labor-force-distorts-dataAlthough disappointing jobs data through May resulted in Fed Chairman Janet Yellen telling Congress that “the pace of improvement in the labor market appears to have slowed,” June’s rebound in payroll jobs seems to have extinguished all concern about the labor market and the state of the U.S. economy. However, the cyclical downturn in jobs growth has not materially improved.Notwithstanding the ...ECRIFri, 22 Jul 2016 09:03:37 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ecri-s-simple-math-goes-globalhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ecri-s-simple-math-goes-globalThe risk of a global recession is edging up, as the global slowdown we first noted last fall continues . This danger is heightened because longer-term trend growth is slowing in every Group of Seven economy, as dictated by simple math: growth in output per hour, i.e., labor productivity – plus growth in the potential labor force – a proxy for hours worked – adding up to real GDP growth. As we l...ECRIWed, 20 Jul 2016 08:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-7The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 137.0 from 136.7. The growth rate ticks up to 6.9% from 6.8%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus fa...ECRIFri, 15 Jul 2016 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-cyclical-outlook-vs-structural-problemshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-cyclical-outlook-vs-structural-problemsOver emphasizing each data point, whipsaws expectations.Just because a U.S. recession isn’t right at hand, doesn’t mean it’s off the table. There’s been an over emphasizing of monthly and quarterly data gyrations that is whipsawing expectations. Based on the “latest” data, at the beginning of the year people were scared of an imminent recession, and then, following the June jobs report, an econ...ECRIWed, 13 Jul 2016 08:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-5ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest host on Wednesday, July 13, at 6:00 AM .ECRIWed, 13 Jul 2016 05:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticked-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticked-upThe level of the monthly WLI ticked up to 134.7 from 134.0.The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 6.4% from 5.6%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears amo...ECRITue, 12 Jul 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-assessing-eurozone-economic-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-assessing-eurozone-economic-outlookBefore the Brexit shock, the consensus view of Eurozone economic growth prospects had been favorable. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi expected “the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate but steady pace.” Yet, from a cyclical perspective, even before the U.K. referendum Eurozone growth had clearly begun to slow.Indeed, year-over-year Eurozone GDP growth – a smoother and more re...ECRIMon, 11 Jul 2016 12:04:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-jobs-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-jobs-outlookIn cyclical terms nothing much has changed lately, the cyclical downturn in job growth is part of cyclical downturn in overall growth that began a year and a half ago.The employment/population ration is also discussed as those with at least a high school diploma have not seen any recovery, while those without a high school diploma have seen 57% of their recessionary losses reversed.See link bel...ECRIFri, 08 Jul 2016 16:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-grows-in-junehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-grows-in-juneU.S. inflationary pressures were up in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 111.4 from a revised 110.5 reading in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG rose again to an eight-year high in June," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are mounting steadily."ECRIFri, 08 Jul 2016 12:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-web-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Reuters' Trading at Noon on Friday, July 8th at 12:00 PM.ECRIFri, 08 Jul 2016 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 136.7 from 136.3. The growth rate decreased to 6.8% from 7.2%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus ...ECRIFri, 08 Jul 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-unchanged-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-unchanged-achuthanThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index remained unchanged at 136.4. The growth rate ticked up to 7.2% from 7.1%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus fa...ECRIFri, 01 Jul 2016 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brexit-no-u-k-recession-trigger-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brexit-no-u-k-recession-trigger-achuthanFears have flared that the U.K. is sliding into recession following the vote in favor of Brexit, but ECRI’s cyclical indicators are not flagging an imminent economic contraction. The reason is that, at this stage of the economic cycle, the U.K. economy is not susceptible to recessionary shocks. The vote for Brexit certainly came as a surprise to most, but the full fallout remains unclear. It is...ECRIFri, 01 Jul 2016 09:06:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-misconceptions-driving-policy-errorshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-misconceptions-driving-policy-errorsKey to the “productivity puzzle” – the downshift in productivity growth following the Great Recession – is the persistence of policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth, and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics. Indeed, a review of the various factors underlying the productivity growth slump does not support the longstanding consensus assuming that a rebound i...ECRIThu, 30 Jun 2016 16:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-sober-economy-can-handle-the-brexit-hithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-sober-economy-can-handle-the-brexit-hitOne of the main signs of the health of the global and U.S. economies is its ability to absorb a blow, and shake it off. At least that's how Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute sees it. That's something to consider in light of all the fretting and hang-wringing after the U.K. vote last week to exit the European Union.ECRI is best known for analyzing business cycles using a...ECRIThu, 30 Jun 2016 13:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-misconceptions-driving-policy-errorshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-misconceptions-driving-policy-errorsKey to the “productivity puzzle” – the downshift in productivity growth following the Great Recession – is the persistence of policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth, and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics. Indeed, a review of the various factors underlying the productivity growth slump does not support the longstanding consensus assuming that a rebound i...ECRIThu, 30 Jun 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-business-investment-weak-before-brexit-no-surprisehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-business-investment-weak-before-brexit-no-surpriseLast fall – with the Fed trumpeting that fixed investment had been “increasing at solid rates in recent months,” laying the groundwork for their first rate hike in seven years, we disagreed, pointing out that, “defying [the] Fed, business investment growth slows.” Moreover, we declared that, with the Fed counting on investment growth to bolster the economy, it could well be disappointed, making...ECRIWed, 29 Jun 2016 09:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-down-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 136.4 from 136.5. The growth rate little changed at 7.1%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus fad...ECRIFri, 24 Jun 2016 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-anchors-adrifthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-anchors-adriftLast August, four months prior to the Fed’s December 2015 rate hike, we wrote that “the Fed’s rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle.” Back then, the Fed was expecting economic growth to pick up, but ECRI’s forward looking indexes warned otherwise. In fact, at the time the U.S. economy had already entered a broadbased growth rate cycle downturn, with the growth rates ...ECRIWed, 22 Jun 2016 09:26:33 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-ticks-upThe U.S. Coincident Index ticked up to 170.7 in May from 170.6. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, edged up to 2.2%.The chart shows that this reading is far below its January 2015 peak of 4.1%, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for the p...ECRITue, 21 Jun 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 136.5 from 137.4. The growth rate increased to 7.1% from 6.7%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus...ECRIFri, 17 Jun 2016 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-wli-the-rate-hike-cycle-that-wasn-thttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-wli-the-rate-hike-cycle-that-wasn-tIn summer of 2015 we declared that the “Fed’s rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle.” This was because the Fed was pressing for the long awaited “liftoff” from the zero lower bound at a time when ECRI’s leading indexes were pointing to a cyclical slowdown in U.S. economic growth, i.e., a growth rate cycle downturn.On December 16, 2015, the Fed did push through a rate...ECRIFri, 17 Jun 2016 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-taiwan-is-not-in-recession-yethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-taiwan-is-not-in-recession-yetWith Taiwanese GDP growth showing negative readings for the third straight quarter, many think the economy is in recession, but they are mistaken. Successive quarters of negative GDP growth are neither necessary nor sufficient for a recession diagnosis. ECRI’s analysis shows that Taiwan has not experienced a recession yet. While Taiwanese GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters in 2015, as ...ECRIWed, 15 Jun 2016 08:59:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-reuters-interview-jobs-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-reuters-interview-jobs-outlookWhile the latest jobs report showed a sharp slowdown in year-over-year jobs growth to a 27-month low, it was already at a 21-month low the prior month, so the jobs slowdown itsn't exactly new news. In cyclical terms nothing much has changed. The cyclical downturn in job growth is part of cyclical downturn in overall economic growth that began a year and a half ago. Back in March, on this show, ...ECRITue, 14 Jun 2016 13:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/reuters-live-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/reuters-live-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest today at 12:00 noon on Reuters' Trading at Noon show.ECRITue, 14 Jun 2016 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-low-labor-productivity-growth-the-main-culprithttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-low-labor-productivity-growth-the-main-culpritDuring a presentation in April, we showed how the contribution of three components to productivity growth had changed since the end of World War II. While productivity growth was quite strong in the initial decades following World War II and also in the second half of the 1990s, it has been slowing ever since.The latest period of productivity growth following the Great Recession has disappointe...ECRIMon, 13 Jun 2016 08:59:59 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 137.3 from 135.8. The growth rate rose to 6.5% from 5.9%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded...ECRIFri, 10 Jun 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-purple-squirrel-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-purple-squirrel-updateWith job openings surging back toward record high, according to the JOLTS data, some see an extraordinarily tight labor market. What they have missed amid the euphoric headlines is the drop in actual hiring. Here we update last month’s data, based on our original analysis from last fall.As the chart shows, the difference between the number hired and the number of job openings dropped to about h...ECRIFri, 10 Jun 2016 09:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-it-s-the-economic-cycle-achuthan-wlihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-it-s-the-economic-cycle-achuthan-wliThe success of Bill Clinton’s 1992 election campaign was partly credited to its focus on “the economy, stupid,” when referring to what voters cared about. Today, that refrain still resonates for many who feel the cycle slowdown that is now a year and a half old, but the drop in May payroll job growth still jolted the Wall Street consensus. Regardless of the lens through which one views the econ...ECRIThu, 09 Jun 2016 09:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-prospects-for-mexican-tradehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-prospects-for-mexican-tradeAmid the U.S. presidential campaign, there has been added attention to the trading relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. While some claim that it favors the Mexican economy at the expense of the U.S. economy, the evidence shows that Mexico has been getting hurt on the trade front for some time now.Oil, of course, is part of the dynamic, but weakness in trade goes beyond the plunge in petrol...ECRIWed, 08 Jun 2016 09:01:34 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-unchangedThe level of the monthly WLI unchanged at 133.8.The growth rate of the monthly WLI ticked down to 5.3% from 5.6%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the co...ECRIMon, 06 Jun 2016 13:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-more-than-one-job-to-make-ends-meethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-more-than-one-job-to-make-ends-meetSingle jobholder growth is at 1.3% in May , a two-year low, and the lowest since May 2014.At the same time multiple jobholders growth has advanced to 6.1% in May , a five-month high, the highest since December 2015.This suggests that people need to work multiple, lower-paying jobs, in order to make ends meet.ECRIMon, 06 Jun 2016 09:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreasedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 135.8 from 136.1. The growth rate ticked down to 5.9% from 6.1%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensu...ECRIFri, 03 Jun 2016 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-inflation-deception-continueshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-inflation-deception-continuesPlainly, year-over-year average hourly earnings growth is holding near its highest reading since 2009 . But, underlying this obvious fact is a slowing economy, with yoy growth in aggregate pay and aggregate hours in cyclical downturns, with both approaching February’s two-year lows.Basically, AHE is the ratio of aggregate pay to aggregate hours. Therefore, to understand why AHE growth is perfor...ECRIFri, 03 Jun 2016 10:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-at-94-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-at-94-month-highU.S. inflationary pressures were up in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 110.1 from a 108.1 reading in April, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG increased again in May to a 94-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still on the rise."ECRIFri, 03 Jun 2016 09:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rate-hike-cycle-remains-unlikelyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rate-hike-cycle-remains-unlikelyWith all eyes on the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike, the reality remains that the U.S. economy will stay in a growth rate cycle downturn. What we wrote around the time of the December rate hike remains true today: “With the GRC downturn set to deepen, a full-blown rate hike cycle remains improbable” . Notably, if the Fed does manage a mid-year rate hike – which itself is uncertain – that wo...ECRIThu, 02 Jun 2016 09:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-true-rate-hike-cycle-remains-unlikelyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-true-rate-hike-cycle-remains-unlikelyWith all eyes on the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike, the reality remains that the U.S. economy will stay in a growth rate cycle downturn. What we wrote around the time of the December rate hike remains true today: “With the GRC downturn set to deepen, a full-blown rate hike cycle remains improbable” . Notably, if the Fed does manage a mid-year rate hike – which itself is uncertain – that wo...ECRIThu, 02 Jun 2016 09:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 136.1 from 135.1. The growth rate edged up to 6.1% from 6.0%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus f...ECRIFri, 27 May 2016 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-erosion-underway-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-erosion-underway-againThe Fed may welcome higher inflation, but it is important not to forget what inflation does to real wage growth – which is what folks on Main Street depend on. Inflation eats away at wages, and as a result, real wage growth has been declining since last fall. In fact, yoy real average weekly earnings growth peaked just under 3% at the beginning of 2015 in both the goods-producing sector and the...ECRIWed, 25 May 2016 08:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-erosionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-erosionA key piece of good news on the jobs front in recent months has been the pick-up in nominal wage growth. But ballooning inventories for most goods have weighed on employment and wage growth in the goods-producing sector for some time. Meanwhile, year-over-year job growth in the much larger service-providing sector, which has done the heavy lifting in terms of overall jobs growth since 2010, has...ECRITue, 24 May 2016 09:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-decreasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-decreasedThe U.S. Coincident Index is a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales. While the USCI edged up to 170.3 in April from 169.9, its year-over-year growth has fallen to 1.9%, a 28-month low.Over a year ago – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.Fo...ECRIMon, 23 May 2016 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-canadian-exports-face-u-s-headwindshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-canadian-exports-face-u-s-headwindsOnly a few weeks before the fire in Alberta, the Bank of Canada had forecast a pick-up in export growth this year. The wildfire cut oil production — Canada’s top export — by one million barrels per day for the week it raged, a transitory shock, with oil production likely to recover before June. In this context, we examine Canadian real export growth , which has been in a cyclical downturn since...ECRIMon, 23 May 2016 09:00:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 134.5 from 135.0. The growth rate ticked down to 5.3% from 5.6%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus ...ECRIFri, 20 May 2016 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-growth-rate-weighed-down-by-inactionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/conomic-cycle-research-ecri-growth-rate-weighed-down-by-inactionThis New York Times article builds on themes raised by our presentation, “Flawed Assumption and Grand Experiments.”  Back when “Gunsmoke” was on TV and Lyndon Johnson was president, the United States economy managed to storm ahead by nearly 5 percent a year for nearly a decade. What we would give to recover some of that power!During Ronald Reagan’s presidency two decades later, the rise in the ...ECRIWed, 18 May 2016 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-korean-productivity-way-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-korean-productivity-way-downA month before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers and well before the secular stagnation debate began in the fall of 2013, we showed how U.S. GDP growth had been stair-stepping down in successive business cycle expansions. We then expanded this analysis to other major economies, with similar results, developing our “yo-yo years” thesis, which predicts more frequent recessions in developed eco...ECRIWed, 18 May 2016 09:11:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-6The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 135.0 from 135.7. The growth rate edged up to 5.7% from 5.4%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus...ECRIFri, 13 May 2016 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-export-engines-cut-outhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-export-engines-cut-outA key objective of repeated rounds of quantitative easing by international central banks has been competitive devaluation to boost exports. As we observed early last year, this was “largely why advanced economies’ export volume growth has improved a bit … Yet, even this modest uptick in export volume has come at the expense of a nosedive in export price growth” . Updating the data we showcased ...ECRIThu, 12 May 2016 09:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-only-purple-squirrels-need-applyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-only-purple-squirrels-need-applyWith job openings at near-record highs, according to the JOLTS data, some see an extraordinarily tight labor market. What they seemed to have missed amid the euphoric headlines was the drop in actual hiring. Here we update our analysis from last fall.As the chart shows, the difference between the number hired and the number of job openings dropped to about half a million shortly before the star...ECRIWed, 11 May 2016 08:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-rosehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-roseThe level of the monthly WLI rose to 133.3 from 130.5.The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 4.8% from 0.9%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among th...ECRITue, 10 May 2016 08:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-job-growth-downturn-lines-up-with-gdp-growth-downturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-job-growth-downturn-lines-up-with-gdp-growth-downturnWhile economists scratch their heads about the apparent disconnect between GDP growth and job growth, the cyclical reality is that both peaked in early 2015 and remain in cyclical downtrends. Indeed, year-over-year GDP growth is now at a two-year low, while yoy payroll job growth is hovering just above a two-year low. Meanwhile, the sustained decline in the official jobless rate – now near the ...ECRIMon, 09 May 2016 13:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bloomberg-interview-summaryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bloomberg-interview-summaryThe hard data tell us that U.S. growth continues to slow. People think U.S. growth outlook improved materially over past couple months, as economic surprise index turned up in Feb, but nobody seems to be talking about how it’s been falling lately. Year over year job growth is hovering just above a two-year low, after peaking in early 2015, and it’s not just about jobs. Industrial production gro...ECRIMon, 09 May 2016 10:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-tv-interview-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-tv-interview-lakshman-achuthan-bloombergOn May 9 at 6:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will guest host with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV.ECRIMon, 09 May 2016 04:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-6The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 135.7 from 135.5. The growth rate rose to 5.4% from 4.5%.The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded,...ECRIFri, 06 May 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-at-93-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-at-93-month-highU.S. inflationary pressures were up in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 107.8 from a downwardly revised 107.6 reading in March, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The March reading was first reported as 107.8."The USFIG rose again in April to a 93-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "T...ECRIFri, 06 May 2016 09:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-multiple-jobs-needed-to-make-ends-meethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-multiple-jobs-needed-to-make-ends-meetSingle jobholders growth is at 1.5% in April, a four-month low, and the lowest since December 2015. At the same time multiple jobholders growth has risen to 6.0%, a four-month high, and the highest since December 2015.This suggests that people need to work multiple, lower-paying jobs in order to make ends meet.ECRIFri, 06 May 2016 09:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-risky-businesshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-risky-businessThe risk implied by fixed income markets, as measured by the yield spreads for corporate bonds of different qualities, is near levels typically seen in the vicinity of recessions. This is especially concerning with the U.S. economy already facing “stagflation lite” against the backdrop of declining economic trend growth.The spread between interest rates on high yield corporate bonds and BAA cor...ECRIThu, 05 May 2016 10:32:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-where-are-we-in-the-economic-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-where-are-we-in-the-economic-cycleIn early April ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discussed "Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?" at the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics Conference. Key points are summarized below, along with link to the presentation slides, including notes. Central banks may be out of ammo to fight recession.This year began with recession fears throwing a spotlight on the elephant in the room: as The Econom...ECRIWed, 04 May 2016 10:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-hard-data-confirms-industrial-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-hard-data-confirms-industrial-slowdownEarlier this month, the industrial production release disappointed the consensus, adding to a slew of weak economic data. Clearly, despite the spreading conviction that the growth outlook for the U.S. economy in general, and the manufacturing sector in particular, had improved materially, the hard data tell a very different story.As the chart shows, the smoothed growth rate of IP has now plumme...ECRIMon, 02 May 2016 08:59:28 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-4The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 135.5 from 135.2. The growth rate increases to 4.5% from 3.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please follow this link to the presentation slides.  - watch Lakshamn Ac...ECRIFri, 29 Apr 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-fears-still-overblownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-fears-still-overblownIt was only a few weeks ago when investors seemed convinced that the economy was grinding to a halt.Few people would disagree that growth isn’t exactly robust. Still there’s a long way to go before calling a recession, says ECRI’s Lakshman Achutan . Watch, listen, and learn in this Forbes video.ECRIThu, 28 Apr 2016 13:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fiscal-equivalent-of-warhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fiscal-equivalent-of-warIn the wake of the Bank of Japan decision to stand pat, Japan looks to be in ever more desperate straits, given the growing danger of sliding into its second recession since Abenomics was introduced. Such a recession would be the nail in the coffin of Abenomics, launched with high hopes and much fanfare three years ago. It made sense, therefore, for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to seek the advice ...ECRIThu, 28 Apr 2016 10:16:45 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-headed-for-stagflation-litehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-headed-for-stagflation-liteIf you are old enough to remember the 1970s, then you’ll know that lava lamps and disco were only two of the horrors of the era. On the economics front, the U.S. was hit with stagnation and inflation at the same time. It came to be known as stagflation.Unfortunately, a mild version of the same is set to arrive in the U.S. economy shortly. This is the picture shown by ECRI's indexes for growth a...ECRIWed, 27 Apr 2016 09:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stalling-without-fallinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-stalling-without-fallingOne consequence of persistently low productivity growth is lower trend growth. As St. Louis Fed President James Bullard observed a couple months ago, echoing ECRI’s long-held “yo-yo years” thesis, this implies “a higher probability of recession” .About five years ago, a Fed study indicated that the “stall speed” of the U.S. economy was best expressed in terms of the two-quarter annualized growt...ECRITue, 26 Apr 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-commodity-exports-weigh-on-australiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-commodity-exports-weigh-on-australiaThanks in large part to China’s rapid growth, commodity exports had been one of Australia’s main drivers of economic growth. However, commodity exports have been shrinking since 2014, with its growth rate staying deep in negative territory.ECRI’s Global Leading Manufacturing Index is designed to anticipate turning points in global industrial production, and includes China. Because demand for co...ECRIMon, 25 Apr 2016 09:06:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rosehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-roseThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 135.2 from 134.2. The growth rate increased to 3.5% from 2.5%.To put the economy in perspective read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference this week. Please follow this link to the presentation slides.  For a closer look at recent moves in th...ECRIFri, 22 Apr 2016 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-what-the-fed-can-learn-from-carl-saganhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-what-the-fed-can-learn-from-carl-sagan“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” said Carl Sagan, astronomer extraordinaire.That philosophy should apply to anything. If you say you can read minds or levitate, then at least back it up with substantial evidence that you can do so. The same should be true for the policies of the Federal Reserve, which has implemented some extraordinary monetary policy over the last few yea...ECRIFri, 22 Apr 2016 08:56:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-s-economy-keeps-surprising-the-consensushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-s-economy-keeps-surprising-the-consensusThe last quarter of 2015 saw a contraction in Japan’s GDP, and 2016 started with year-over-year inflation dipping back into negative territory for the first time in over 2½ years. Obviously, this is not what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda had envisaged when Abenomics was launched over three years ago. Trying yet another approach to boost growth and inflatio...ECRIThu, 21 Apr 2016 09:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-coincident-index-growth-rate-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-coincident-index-growth-rate-ticks-downThe U.S. Coincident Index ticked down to 169.8 in March from 169.9. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has slipped to 2.16%, a 27-month low.Over a year ago – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.To ...ECRIWed, 20 Apr 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 134.2 from 133.2. The growth rate rises to 2.5% from 1.5%.To put the economy in perspective read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference this week. Please follow this link to the presentation slides.For a closer look at recent moves in the...ECRIFri, 15 Apr 2016 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-minsky-conference-slides-and-audiohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-minsky-conference-slides-and-audioECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference this week. Key points are summarized below, and please follow this link to the presentation slides, which include notes.•    Central banks may be out of ammo to fight recession.In the summer of 2008, before Lehman blew up and many years before t...ECRIFri, 15 Apr 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-minsky-conference-slides-and-audiohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-minsky-conference-slides-and-audioECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference this week. Key points are summarized below, and please follow this link to the presentation slides, which include notes.•    Central banks may be out of ammo to fight recession.In the summer of 2008, before Lehman blew up and many years before t...ECRIFri, 15 Apr 2016 08:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-faces-stagflation-litehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-faces-stagflation-liteThe cyclical downturn in U.S. economic growth that began more than a year ago remains intact. The evidence comes from the year-over-year growth rate of ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index   –  subsuming the aggregate measures of output, employment, income and sales that define the business cycle – which has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015 .Meanwhile, yoy growth in the core PCE de...ECRIWed, 13 Apr 2016 09:12:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-annual-hyman-p-minsky-conferencehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-annual-hyman-p-minsky-conferenceIn April 2016, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join a panel discussion at the 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on Will the Global Economic Environment Constrain US Growth and Employment?ECRIWed, 13 Apr 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 133.2 from 133.0. The growth rate rose to 1.6% from 0.7%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Reuters.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 08 Apr 2016 10:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-peak-date-determined-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-peak-date-determined-for-japanToday ECRI is announcing a new Japanese growth rate cycle peak date, October 2015. Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an ...ECRIThu, 07 Apr 2016 16:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-citing-weak-global-demand-banxico-cuts-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-citing-weak-global-demand-banxico-cuts-growth-outlookIn mid-February, the Bank of Mexico instituted a surprise rate hike – though it held rates flat in its latest decision – in an effort to bolster the very weak peso, which has since strengthened only modestly. Even with the weak peso, Banxico cited expectations of disappointing external demand – which has been an issue around the world – in justifying the recent cuts to its 2016 and 2017 GDP gro...ECRIThu, 07 Apr 2016 09:00:34 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-philadelphia-council-for-business-economicshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-philadelphia-council-for-business-economicsOn April 6 ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will speak to the Philadelphia NABE chapter about "Where Are We In the Economic Cycle?" Philadelphia Federal Reserve12 noonECRIWed, 06 Apr 2016 12:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increasedThe level of the monthly WLI rose to 130.5 from 127.6.The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 0.9% from -3.4%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Reuters.ECRIMon, 04 Apr 2016 09:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-growshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-growsU.S. inflationary pressures were up in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 107.8 from an upwardly revised 107.0 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The February reading was first reported as 105.1.“The USFIG rose further in March to its highest reading since the summer of 2008,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lak...ECRIFri, 01 Apr 2016 11:44:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rises to 133.0 from 132.5. The growth rate increases to 0.7% from -0.7%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Reuters.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 01 Apr 2016 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-no-locomotive-for-global-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-no-locomotive-for-global-growthThe ongoing global growth slowdown has taken its toll on exports. Indeed, real export growth has already dropped into negative territory for the U.S. and Japan, following the 2013 cyclical downturns in the growth rates of our U.S. and Japanese Leading Exports Indexes . U.S. export growth has slumped to its worst reading since late 2009 , while Japanese export growth is approaching its lowest po...ECRIThu, 31 Mar 2016 09:24:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-at-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-coincident-index-growth-rate-at-ticks-downThe U.S. Coincident Index slipped to 170.5 in February. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has ticked down to 2.3% from 2.4%.Over a year ago – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.To put the state o...ECRIThu, 24 Mar 2016 10:44:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increased-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 132.4 from 131.8. The growth rate rose to -0.7% from -2.0%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Reuters.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIThu, 24 Mar 2016 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-consumer-economic-growth-united-stateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-consumer-economic-growth-united-statesThe latest retail sales data have dented the earlier optimism about consumer spending, undermining confidence in the consumer’s ability to keep the economy afloat. In fact, if the support from the consumer were to slacken further, the Fed will need to amend its latest statement that economic activity has been supported by “household spending … increasing at a moderate pace,” and find it increas...ECRIMon, 21 Mar 2016 09:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-5The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 131.6 from 130.6. The growth rate increases to -2.3% from -3.1%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Reuters.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 18 Mar 2016 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-reuters-interview-on-jobs-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-reuters-interview-on-jobs-outlookWhen we spoke with Reuters in January, we discussed how since last summer ECRI has been saying that the Fed’s rate hike plans were on a collision course with the economic cycle. That realization only dawned on the consensus in January, triggering a major shift in market perceptions of the macro economy and the pace of Fed rate hikes. At ECRI, we aren’t forecasters using extrapolative econometri...ECRIWed, 16 Mar 2016 14:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-monetary-policy-parlor-trickshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-monetary-policy-parlor-tricksAs we recently noted, the cyclical slowdown in global growth is unfolding in the context of the long-term declines in secular trend growth that we identified years ago. It is in this context that we revisit the patterns in nominal GDP growth, which “unites these global patterns of slowing real activity and falling inflation.” In the chart, the thin blue lines represent yoy NGDP growth, and the ...ECRITue, 15 Mar 2016 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weak-exports-raise-concerns-on-indian-economic-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weak-exports-raise-concerns-on-indian-economic-growthAs global economic growth continues to be sluggish, India stands out as a bright spot. According to an advance estimate released last week by the Indian government, real GDP growth is expected to increase to 7.6% in 2015-16, up from 7.2% in 2014-15 and 6.6% in 2013-14. The IMF also expects robust growth to continue. However, Indian exports have continued to shrink since 2014, and its year-over-...ECRIMon, 14 Mar 2016 09:00:22 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 131.0 from 129.3. The growth rate ticked up to -3.1% from -3.5%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 11 Mar 2016 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-slippedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-slippedThe level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 127.7, a 38-month low, the lowest since December 2012.The growth rate of the monthly WLI edged down to -3.4%, a one-year low, the lowest since February 2015.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.ECRITue, 08 Mar 2016 08:59:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-eurozone-cyclical-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-eurozone-cyclical-prospectsThe European Central Bank’s monetary policy is extremely — and increasingly — accommodative, yet it has failed to boost inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In December, the ECB expanded its 1.1 trillion euro quantitative easing program by 360 billion euros after the initial program proved ineffective, underscored by the fact that Q4 2015 real GDP growth was just 0.3% and year-over-ye...ECRIMon, 07 Mar 2016 09:02:50 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index virtually unchanged at 129.2. The growth rate ticked down to -3.5% from -3.4%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 04 Mar 2016 10:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-grows-in-februaryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-grows-in-februaryU.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 105.1 from an upwardly revised 103.4 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The January reading was first reported as 102.7.“The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said ...ECRIFri, 04 Mar 2016 09:54:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-trend-growth-us-vs-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-trend-growth-us-vs-japanA cyclical slowdown in global growth is unfolding in the context of a long-term decline in trend growth that we identified years ago. Indeed, U.S. long-term trend real GDP growth is converging to about ¾%, the same as Japan’s average real GDP growth over the past quarter-century, spanning its “lost decades.” In that sense, the U.S. is well on the way to “becoming Japan.”Meanwhile, “lowflation” ...ECRIThu, 03 Mar 2016 09:00:47 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-simple-math-revisitedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-simple-math-revisitedWe noted some time ago that “[r]ecoveries have been weakening due to declines in growth in output per hour , growth in hours worked, or both. Taken together, they add up to real GDP growth. It’s just simple math.” Specifically, we observed, “For the past four years, productivity growth has averaged just over ½% per year,“ while “[p]otential labor force growth [reflecting] the long-term trend in...ECRITue, 01 Mar 2016 08:58:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-4The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 129.2 from 128.6. The growth rate ticks down to -3.4% from -3.1%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 26 Feb 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-highlights-from-bloomberg-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-highlights-from-bloomberg-interviewHas the Fed's dual mandate been met?:People say that we’re at “full-employment” and headline inflation is rising, yet the market is jumpy, the Fed is backtracking on rate hike cycle plans, and non-establishment political candidates are surging in the polls. Part of the reason may be that the so-called jobs recovery has been spearheaded by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to ...ECRIMon, 22 Feb 2016 10:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-4ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest host on Monday, February 22, at 5:50 AM .ECRIMon, 22 Feb 2016 05:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-falls-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index falls to 128.6 from 130.0. The growth rate decreases to -3.1% from -2.6%.To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 19 Feb 2016 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-chinese-cyclical-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-chinese-cyclical-growth-prospectsThe reputation of China’s leadership has been tarnished as a result of the recent mishaps in the stock market and transition of the yuan towards a market-based currency. Consequently, there have been ever-louder proclamations of the economy’s impending doom. Though many of the fears may be inflated, from a cyclical perspective, for about a year there have been signs that the cyclical drivers of...ECRIThu, 18 Feb 2016 09:27:32 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-myth-of-the-resilient-consumerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-myth-of-the-resilient-consumerThe premise of incomes powering a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false. And for people renting their homes the squeeze is even greater. One clue is the extent of the increase in health care spending in recent years. Renters’ expenditures on health care as a percentage of after-tax income — after hovering around 4¾% for over a quarter century through 2011 — rose t...ECRIFri, 12 Feb 2016 11:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-up-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 130.0 from 129.6. The growth rate slipped to -2.6% from -2.3%.To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 12 Feb 2016 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-edged-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-edged-downThe level of the monthly WLI decreased to a three-month low, the lowest since October 2015, when it was 128.2.The growth rate of the monthly WLI decreased to a three-month low, the lowest since October 2015, when it was at -3.3%To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Real Vision TV.ECRIWed, 10 Feb 2016 09:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-outlook-for-business-investmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-outlook-for-business-investmentBusiness investment has persistently disappointed since the Great Recession, particularly given the flood of easy money and low cost of capital. Of broader concern, however, is the extent to which weak business investment has caused productivity growth to stay “way, way down,” in the words of Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, thereby contributing to the decline in long-term trend growth that E...ECRIMon, 08 Feb 2016 09:12:12 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-ticks-upU.S. inflationary pressures were up in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 102.7 from an unrevised 102.3 reading in December, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG ticked up in January, but remains far below its 2014 highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pre...ECRIFri, 05 Feb 2016 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slips-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 129.6 from 130.2. The growth rate ticks down to -2.3% from -2.1%.To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 05 Feb 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-fade-ecrihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-fade-ecriInflationary pressures in the euro zone have eased, likely adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy again, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge fell to 98.5 in December from 99.6 the month before. The gauge is a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle...ECRIFri, 05 Feb 2016 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-major-advanced-economies-slowing-in-concerthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-major-advanced-economies-slowing-in-concert Amid rising fears of a global recession, the world’s largest rich economies are already mired in growth rate cycle downturns. Specifically, the growth rates of ECRI’s coincident indexes have already dropped to a 27-month low in the U.S., a 15-month low in Germany, a five-month low in France, and an eight-month low in Japan, while staying at a 21-month low in the U.K. Whereas the U.S. and U.K. ...ECRIThu, 04 Feb 2016 09:04:17 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-nonresidential-construction-outlook-key-for-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-nonresidential-construction-outlook-key-for-fedWith the U.S. economy in a sustained slowdown and the Fed’s rate hike plan on a collision course with the economy, there is good reason to try and find bright spots. In the latest Fed minutes, the Federal Open Market Committee made a positive case for nonresidential construction, highlighting commercial building as an “area of strength” in several regions.In this context, an update to our U.S. ...ECRITue, 02 Feb 2016 09:01:06 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 130.2 from 130.0. The growth rate decreases to -2.2% from -2.0%.To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 29 Jan 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-grand-experiments-that-are-too-big-to-failhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-grand-experiments-that-are-too-big-to-failAs the great and the good gathered in Davos to ponder the next big thing, the pummeling of global equity markets brought key assumptions into question. Yet, their collective heads stayed buried in the snow with regard to the big ideas from years past, namely, the three grand economic experiments launched by the U.S., Japan and China following the Global Financial Crisis.The fate of the global e...ECRIThu, 28 Jan 2016 09:23:15 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-washington-dc-member-meetingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-washington-dc-member-meetingsECRI will visit Washington D.C. on January 29 for meetings with professional members.ECRIThu, 28 Jan 2016 06:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-grand-experiments-that-are-too-big-to-failhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-grand-experiments-that-are-too-big-to-failAs the great and the good gathered in Davos to ponder the next big thing, the pummeling of global equity markets brought key assumptions into question. Yet, their collective heads stayed buried in the snow with regard to the big ideas from years past, namely, the three grand economic experiments launched by the U.S., Japan and China following the Global Financial Crisis.The fate of the global e...ECRIThu, 28 Jan 2016 05:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-timing-is-everythinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-timing-is-everythingWhen it hiked rates last month, the Fed — along with major Wall Street houses — predicted four more rate hikes this year. But a stock price correction has a way of focusing the mind on the implausibility of such a course of action, to which markets now assign less than a 1% probability. A disconnect has long been evident from a cyclical vantage point. As we declared six months ago “[t]he Fed’s ...ECRITue, 26 Jan 2016 09:41:16 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 130.2 from 130.9. The growth rate edges down to -1.9% from -1.5%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Real Vision.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 22 Jan 2016 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-2016-real-vision-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economic-cycle-research-ecri-2016-real-vision-interviewECRI's Achuthan joined Real Vision TV on December 15, 2015 to discuss our cyclical framework and the 2016 outlook, including Fed policy, post-GFC developments, and what is cyclical vs. structural in today's economy .ECRIFri, 22 Jan 2016 10:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-increasing-industrial-sector-risks-in-indiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-increasing-industrial-sector-risks-in-indiaAs the once-celebrated BRICS countries tumble one by one — with Brazil in a depression, Russia in recession, China sending shock waves through world financial markets and South Africa struggling with a crashing rand — India is seen as the last economy standing. But, since India’s exports, which are mostly goods, now account for about a fifth of its GDP, it has become increasingly sensitive to t...ECRIThu, 21 Jan 2016 09:01:33 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-coincident-index-growth-rate-at-24-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-coincident-index-growth-rate-at-24-month-lowThe U.S. Coincident Index remained at 169.8 in December. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has fallen to 2.2%, a 24-month low. A year ago – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.To put the state of ...ECRIWed, 20 Jan 2016 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-in-nairu-we-must-trusthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-in-nairu-we-must-trustWith the jobless rate falling throughout 2015, the slowdown in year-over-year job growth since early 2015 has gone largely unnoticed by the consensus. Despite the clear weakening in employment growth, the Fed is content to take the unemployment rate as the main barometer of labor market health. Of course, recognizing the weakening labor market would undermine the Fed’s justification for its rat...ECRITue, 19 Jan 2016 09:11:34 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-rises-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rises to 130.8 from 130.1. The growth rate ticks down to -1.5% from -1.4%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 15 Jan 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fresh-data-cheap-laborhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fresh-data-cheap-laborThe sustained decline in the official jobless rate – now near the Fed’s estimate of “full employment” – is a misleading indicator of labor market health. Indeed, the stagnation in nominal wage growth is consistent with the weakness in the employment/population ratio. After dropping to three-decade lows in the wake of the Great Recession, the E/P ratio has barely improved since the fall of 2013,...ECRIThu, 14 Jan 2016 08:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-decreasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-decreasedThe level of the monthly WLI decreased to 129.3 from 129.5 in December. The growth rate of the monthly WLI ticked down to -1.3% from -1.2%.For a closer look at the details of the latest jobs report click here for Lakshman Achuthan's interview with Reuters.ECRIMon, 11 Jan 2016 09:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reuters-interview-jobs-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reuters-interview-jobs-outlookKey takeaway from today's interview:The latest jobs report far exceeded consensus expectations as the economy added 292,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. But a closer look at the details reveals why concerns remain about the health of the labor market.In December, year-over-year growth in multiple jobholders rose to an 11-month high, while yoy growth in single jobholders eased to a three-month low. Spe...ECRIFri, 08 Jan 2016 13:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-updated-multiple-jobholders-boost-full-time-employmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-updated-multiple-jobholders-boost-full-time-employmentThe latest jobs report far exceeded consensus expectations as the economy added 292,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. But a closer look at the details reveals why concerns remain about the health of the labor market.In December, year-over-year growth in multiple jobholders rose to an 11-month high, while yoy growth in single jobholders eased to a three-month low. Specifically, since May the number of m...ECRIFri, 08 Jan 2016 10:38:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-downThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 130.1 from 130.7. The growth rate edged down to -1.4% from -1.0%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Al Jazeera.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 08 Jan 2016 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-reuters-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Reuters TV guest on Friday, January 8, at 12:00 PM .ECRIFri, 08 Jan 2016 10:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-trouble-in-brazil-from-recession-to-depressionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-trouble-in-brazil-from-recession-to-depressionOnce a poster child of the BRICS countries, Brazil’s economy has reversed course and is sinking like a brick. In addition, political and corruption scandals, along with the possibility of impeachment for President Rousseff, continue to consume South America’s largest economy. Last spring, we correctly forecast that Brazil’s “cyclical prospects are increasingly gloomy.” At the time, however, the...ECRIThu, 07 Jan 2016 08:59:09 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inventory-overhang-looms-largerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inventory-overhang-looms-largerGiven the weakness of the industrial sector, the health of the overall economy hinges on the resilience of the U.S. consumer. So the holiday shopping season needs to be placed in a broader context. On this score, one of the more troubling economic indicators is the inventory-to-sales ratio, which has soared to its highest reading since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009 . To understand...ECRIWed, 06 Jan 2016 09:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shrinking-trade-pie-gets-even-smallerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shrinking-trade-pie-gets-even-smallerEarly last year, we highlighted how export volume growth had collapsed following the initial recovery from the GFC, and that even the subsequent increases in export volume “have been accompanied by double-digit percentage declines in export prices for both the advanced and the emerging economies” .The situation has since worsened for most economies, with year-over-year world export volume growt...ECRIMon, 04 Jan 2016 09:12:19 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-decreaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-decreasesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 130.9 from 131.4. The growth rate edged down to -0.9% from -0.5%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Al Jazeera.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIThu, 31 Dec 2015 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticked-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 131.4 from 131.1. The growth rate virtually unchanged at -0.6%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Al Jazeera.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIThu, 24 Dec 2015 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-updated-the-myth-of-consumer-driven-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-updated-the-myth-of-consumer-driven-growthRiding roughshod over inconvenient facts and figures in its determination to declare victory, the Fed has finally raised rates, seven years to the day after the fed funds rate hit the zero lower bound. Following this rate hike, multiple additional rate hikes next year are widely expected. During Q&A Fed Chairman Janet Yellen spoke about “upside risks to the economy,” mentioning the “much health...ECRIWed, 23 Dec 2015 11:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 131.1 from 131.4. The growth rate ticks up to -0.6% from -0.7%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Al Jazeera.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 18 Dec 2015 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-myth-of-consumer-driven-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-myth-of-consumer-driven-growthRiding roughshod over inconvenient facts and figures in its determination to declare victory, the Fed has finally raised rates, seven years to the day after the fed funds rate hit the zero lower bound. Following this rate hike, multiple additional rate hikes next year are widely expected. During Q&A Fed Chairman Janet Yellen spoke about “upside risks to the economy,” mentioning the “much health...ECRIFri, 18 Dec 2015 09:09:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ali-velshi-lakshman-achuthan-aljazeera-america-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ali-velshi-lakshman-achuthan-aljazeera-america-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Ali Velshi to discuss the implications of the Fed rate hike.ECRIThu, 17 Dec 2015 09:44:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ali-velshi-lakshman-achuthan-aljazeera-america-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-ali-velshi-lakshman-achuthan-aljazeera-america-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Al Jazeera America TV guest on Wednesday, December 16, at 9:00 PM .ECRIWed, 16 Dec 2015 16:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-coincident-index-growth-ratehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-coincident-index-growth-rateThe U.S. Coincident Index ticked down to 169.8 in November from 169.9.  The USCI year-over-year growth rate slipped to 2.7%, a 21-month low.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in the latest interview on Bloomberg TV.ECRIWed, 16 Dec 2015 11:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-business-cycle-trough-date-determined-for-italyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-business-cycle-trough-date-determined-for-italyToday ECRI is announcing a new Italian business cycle trough date, October 2014. Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles are alternating periods of recession and recovery – and are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates...ECRITue, 15 Dec 2015 11:47:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-understanding-cyclical-sensitivity-for-over-100-industrieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-understanding-cyclical-sensitivity-for-over-100-industriesEarlier this year, we laid out our conceptual framework that determines how cyclically sensitive key economic sectors are likely to be, and outlining the tactical and strategic advantages an organization can acquire by developing the ability to ride the business cycle. We have now determined the cyclical volatility of over a hundred specific industries.This examination adds important nuance and...ECRIMon, 14 Dec 2015 08:59:42 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-5The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 131.3 from 131.7. The growth rate edges up to -0.8% from -1.2%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in the latest interview on Bloomberg TV.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 11 Dec 2015 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-full-bloomberg-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-full-bloomberg-tv-interview 1) Cyclical SlowdownThe economy is best described as one with a long-term decline in trend growth, exacerbated by ongoing cyclical slowdown.ECRI uses the Three Ps, how pronounced, pervasive, persistent is a change in the data, to determine whether recent moves in data are noise or not.-Yoy payroll jobs growth at a 17-month low-Yoy GDP growth at 1½-year low-Yoy industrial production growth near...ECRIThu, 10 Dec 2015 10:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-increasesThe level of the monthly WLI increases to 129.4, the highest since August 2015, when it was 129.8. The growth rate of the monthly WLI rises to a four-month high, the highest since July 2015, when it was at -0.3%ECRIWed, 09 Dec 2015 09:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-part-3-reality-of-inventory-buildhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-part-3-reality-of-inventory-buildKey points from Bloomberg TV interview:Fed’s Fisher says "perhaps eventually" with regard to productivity growth rising. This notion was discussed in an ECRI piece titled Simple Math last June. Since then, the Growth rate in ECRI’s U.S. Leading Index of Consumer Spending has been slowing, suggesting underwhelming retail sales this holiday season.On top of that, there’s been a huge inventory bui...ECRITue, 08 Dec 2015 15:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-part-2-oversupply-overwhelming-demandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-part-2-oversupply-overwhelming-demandKey point from Bloomberg TV interview:1. We have a shrinking trade pie. Unable to generate adequate domestic growth, economies are trying to grab a larger share of that pie through competitive devaluation.ECRITue, 08 Dec 2015 12:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-pt-1-cyclical-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-pt-1-cyclical-slowdownKey points from Bloomberg TV interview:The economy is best described as one with a long-term decline in trend growth, exacerbated by ongoing cyclical slowdown.ECRI uses the Three Ps, how pronounced, pervasive, persistent is a change in the data, to determine whether recent moves in data are noise or not.-Yoy payroll jobs growth at a 17-month low-Yoy GDP growth at 1½-year low-Yoy industrial prod...ECRITue, 08 Dec 2015 11:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest host on Tuesday, December 8, at 6:00 AM .ECRITue, 08 Dec 2015 06:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-for-the-bank-of-england-timing-is-everythinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-for-the-bank-of-england-timing-is-everythingWith the Fed widely expected to raise rates this month – kicking off its collision course with the economic cycle – a key question is when the Bank of England will follow suit.  Indeed, both the U.S. and the U.K. economies are approaching what their respective central banks deem to be “full employment.” Moreover, both central banks consider weak inflation to be only transitory, with the base ef...ECRIMon, 07 Dec 2015 09:10:44 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 131.7 from 131.1. The growth rate rises to -1.2% from -2.0%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 04 Dec 2015 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-inflation-gauge-slipsU.S. inflationary pressures were off in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 102.0 from an upwardly revised 102.4 reading in October, first reported as 102.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While staying a little above its springtime low, the USFIG fell further below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman...ECRIFri, 04 Dec 2015 10:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fed-is-coming-to-terms-with-slower-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fed-is-coming-to-terms-with-slower-growthThe Fed has finally acknowledged what ECRI has been saying for several quarters, namely that the long-term decline in trend GDP growth is unlikely to go away. To wit, their latest meeting minutes state that: “the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth of total factor productivity ...ECRIFri, 04 Dec 2015 09:10:40 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cyc-e-research-eurozone-inflation-pressure-ticks-up-but-remains-mutedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cyc-e-research-eurozone-inflation-pressure-ticks-up-but-remains-mutedInflationary pressures in the euro zone have ticked up but remain muted, suggesting prices will rise only moderately in the coming months, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge rose to 98.8 in October from 98.4 the month before. The gauge is a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle...ECRIFri, 04 Dec 2015 07:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-with-grant-s-about-the-current-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-with-grant-s-about-the-current-slowdownWith the economy slowing steadily since last winter, year-over-year growth in ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index – subsuming the broad measures of output, employment, income and sales used to determine official U.S. recession dates – has dropped to a 22-month low . What happens next is the $64,000 question.ECRI’s viewpoint is laid out in the following excerpt from the latest issue of ©2015 Grant’s In...ECRIWed, 02 Dec 2015 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-chinese-home-price-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-chinese-home-price-growth-outlookBy the summer of 2014, year-over-year Chinese home price growth had declined sharply, following the earlier downturn in the growth rate of our Chinese Leading Home Price Index . After dropping to a record low earlier this year, home price growth has stabilized, with home prices having risen in some Chinese cities, sparking more optimism among the consensus about home price growth prospects. How...ECRIWed, 02 Dec 2015 09:23:44 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 131.1 from 131.0. The growth rate increases to -2.0% from -2.6%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIWed, 25 Nov 2015 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-key-points-from-interview-on-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-key-points-from-interview-on-cyclical-outlook1. Despite latest jobs report, labor market remains weak - Yoy payroll job growth was unchanged from September’s 11-month low- Yoy employment growth dropped to a 22-month low in October- In October the 55+ age group added 378k jobs, while the 25-54 years lost 35k jobs- Since May, multiple jobholders gained 477k jobs, but single jobholders have lost 152k jobs- So, the 1 in 20 workers who hold mu...ECRITue, 24 Nov 2015 09:54:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-radio-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-radio-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg Radio guest on Tuesday, November 24, at 7:00 AM . ECRIMon, 23 Nov 2015 15:07:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-holiday-blueshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-holiday-bluesWith year-over-year growth in industrial production falling to a 70-month low, all eyes are on the U.S. consumer as the Fed prepares to begin a rate hike cycle. The question is whether consumer spending will be robust enough to offset the industrial weakness, thereby giving the Fed a green light for a series of rate hikes.Unfortunately, since reaching a three-year high last year, yoy nominal pe...ECRIMon, 23 Nov 2015 09:54:27 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increases-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 131.0 from 130.4. The growth rate edges up to -2.6% from -3.1%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 20 Nov 2015 10:28:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-multiple-jobholders-boost-full-time-employmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-multiple-jobholders-boost-full-time-employmentThe latest jobs report far exceeded consensus expectations as the economy added 271,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, and the number of full-time workers surpassed its pre-recession high. As a result, a December rate hike appears highly probable, essentially extinguishing lingering concerns following the weak Q3 GDP reading.The household survey also posted strong gains, showing 320,000 jobs added. But ...ECRIWed, 18 Nov 2015 09:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-flashback-risk-of-redefining-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-flashback-risk-of-redefining-recessionIgnorance about recessions has taken hold because of a simplistic idea that a recession is two successive quarterly declines in GDP or, more broadly, a situation where we see some, but not all, of the typical markers of recession. The following piece was originally published by CNN on May 6, 2008.Recession? Or just a slowdown? Some will tell you it doesn't much matter - that it's a distinction ...ECRIFri, 13 Nov 2015 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 130.4 from 129.8. The growth rate increases to -2.9% from -3.5%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 13 Nov 2015 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-case-of-wage-inflation-deception-average-hourly-earnings-ahehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-case-of-wage-inflation-deception-average-hourly-earnings-aheHere we go again. It is clear that wage growth hasn’t been this high since 2009. But as Sherlock Holmes put it, “there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.”Certainly, year-over-year average hourly earnings growth has risen to a six-and-a-quarter-year high . But – as in the spring of 2014, when we first flagged this paradox, and a year or so later, when Fed Chairman Janet Yellen saw t...ECRIMon, 09 Nov 2015 13:39:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-monthly-leading-index-ticks-downThe level of the Weekly Leading Index decreased to a 31-month low, the lowest since March 2013, when it was 128.5. The growth rate fell to an eight-month low, the lowest since February 2015, when it was at -4.3%ECRIMon, 09 Nov 2015 09:37:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-defying-fed-business-investment-growth-slowshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-defying-fed-business-investment-growth-slowsThe consensus has only recently become aware of the slowdown in U.S. economic growth that we predicted at the beginning of the year. Yet the related decline in profit margin growth already has some worried because similar declines have been associated with past recessions.Still, others have downplayed the current profit growth decline, pointing to the recent plunge in energy sector profits as t...ECRIMon, 09 Nov 2015 09:04:07 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-4The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 129.8 from 129.9. The growth rate falls to -3.5% from -2.7%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 06 Nov 2015 10:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-3U.S. inflationary pressures were up in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.1 from an upwardly revised 101.7 reading in September, first reported as 101.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While it remains above March's 16-month low, the USFIG is well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan s...ECRIFri, 06 Nov 2015 09:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-economic-cycle-eurozone-inflation-pressures-fade-ecbhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-economic-cycle-eurozone-inflation-pressures-fade-ecbInflationary pressures in the euro zone have faded further, suggesting the European Central Bank's bond-buying programme is having little effect, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge dipped to 98.5 in September from 98.6 the month before. The gauge is a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Eco...ECRIFri, 06 Nov 2015 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-checked-by-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-checked-by-chinaThough its latest statement noted that the Fed “is monitoring global economic and financial developments,” some celebrated the shift away from September’s more alarming view that weakness abroad may “restrain [U.S.] economic activity.” Yet, falling Chinese imports are already hurting key overseas economies, potentially weakening U.S. export demand and worsening import price deflation. After pea...ECRITue, 03 Nov 2015 09:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 129.8 from 130.0. The growth rate ticked down to -2.8% from -2.7%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 30 Oct 2015 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-key-surprises-to-consensus-viewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-key-surprises-to-consensus-viewLast month, seven years after the Lehman Brothers collapse, the Fed again postponed its long-awaited rate hike. In justifying that decision, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen so surprised observers by citing “global financial and economic developments” — in particular, inflation undershooting the Fed’s 2% target due to “declines in energy and import prices” — that some labeled these factors a new, thir...ECRIThu, 29 Oct 2015 09:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-trough-and-peak-dates-determined-for-koreahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-trough-and-peak-dates-determined-for-koreaToday ECRI is announcing a new Korean growth rate cycle trough date, August 2012 and peak date, February 2014. Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in eit...ECRIWed, 28 Oct 2015 13:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-flagging-family-fortuneshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-flagging-family-fortunesThe fortunes of the average family have been in decline since the late 20th century. Specifically, the real median household income has declined by 11% over 15 years since its 1999 peak .Households headed by high school or even college graduates have not been immune to this decline . And those headed by the most educated individuals – with doctorate degrees – have seen their median income fall ...ECRITue, 27 Oct 2015 09:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-s-industrial-output-contracts-raising-recession-fearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-s-industrial-output-contracts-raising-recession-fearsThere is increasing concern that Japan’s Q3 GDP will show further contraction, following negative second-quarter GDP growth. Making matters worse, year-over-year industrial production growth fell to -0.4% in August – well below consensus expectations – prompting the government to highlight the recent weakness in its monthly economic report, and heightening the unease surrounding manufacturing g...ECRITue, 27 Oct 2015 08:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-increasesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 130.0 from 128.7. The growth rate slips to -2.7% from -2.2%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 23 Oct 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-peak-determined-for-canadahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-peak-determined-for-canadaToday ECRI is announcing a new Canadian growth rate cycle peak date, June 2014. Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings...ECRIThu, 22 Oct 2015 13:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-key-measure-of-cyclical-growth-is-weakeninghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-key-measure-of-cyclical-growth-is-weakeningFed rate hike plans remain on a collision course with U.S. economic growth, which has been in a sustained slowdown all year.That’s according to ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index , a composite measure of aggregate output, employment, income and sales, which together define the business cycle. In September, USCI growth declined for the eighth straight month to a 19-month low, continuing a cyclical dow...ECRIThu, 22 Oct 2015 10:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-risks-in-emerging-asiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rising-risks-in-emerging-asiaGiven the Fed’s worries about emerging markets, ECRI has investigated how susceptible major export-dependent Asian economies are to exogenous shocks. Throughout the summer, the Fed had been signaling an imminent rate hike, but then kept the benchmark rate unchanged in September, voicing concerns about the “possible effects of slower economic growth in China and emerging markets.”Our analysis is...ECRITue, 20 Oct 2015 08:56:15 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-fallsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index falls to 128.7 from 132.5. The growth rate decreases to -2.2% from -1.1%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 16 Oct 2015 10:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-economic-truism-recession-kills-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-economic-truism-recession-kills-inflationThe world’s major central banks have been engaging in competitive devaluation, amounting to desperate grabs for bigger shares of a barely-growing global economic pie. Yet, deflationary forces continue to be transmitted through trade, with most economies experiencing a degree of export price deflation matched only during the Global Financial Crisis. Given the effect of currency movements on infl...ECRIThu, 15 Oct 2015 09:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-determined-for-ukhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-determined-for-ukToday ECRI is announcing a new U.K. growth rate cycle peak date, November 2014. Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings...ECRITue, 13 Oct 2015 10:04:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-vw-scandal-clouds-german-job-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-vw-scandal-clouds-german-job-marketThe Volkswagen scandal has cast a cloud over the German economy, which has otherwise been a source of Eurozone strength, with German unemployment at just 6.4%, contrasting starkly with the double-digit rates seen elsewhere in the region. Even as the vital auto industry continues to lick its wounds from the Volkswagen crisis, the consensus believes that German labor market prospects remain brigh...ECRITue, 13 Oct 2015 09:00:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-founder-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-economy-softening-bottom-mid-16-no-recession-yethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-founder-lakshman-achuthan-u-s-economy-softening-bottom-mid-16-no-recession-yetSummary- All U.S sectors slowing, manufacturing the worst.- All countries’ export growth near zero, with alarming deflation.- Fed unlikely to raise rates until economy accelerates.Harlan Levy: What's your overall view of the U.S. economy from the latest data?Lakshman Achuthan: Since early this year, we've been looking for a cyclical downturn in the growth of the U.S. economy. With some ups and ...ECRIMon, 12 Oct 2015 15:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-risesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index rises to 132.5 from 130.7. The growth rate increases to -1.1% from -1.7%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 09 Oct 2015 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-blind-faith-puts-fed-further-behind-the-curvehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-blind-faith-puts-fed-further-behind-the-curveWhile there is finally some recognition that the Fed missed its best opportunity to start hiking rates, it was at the beginning of this year that we asked, “If not now, when?” Indeed, the start of a rate hike cycle typically implies that the economy is on a strong footing, yet growth has been slowing all year, and inflation remains stuck well below the Fed’s target. Meanwhile, if this slowdown ...ECRIThu, 08 Oct 2015 09:42:18 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-three-point-summary-of-today-discussion-on-bloomberghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-three-point-summary-of-today-discussion-on-bloombergThe current U.S. Economic Slowdown started in early 2015 -People are just now starting to realize that U.S. economic growth is declining, but, as we warned, it’s actually been falling since the start of 2015.-Yoy growth in our Coincident Index, a really broad measure that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has fallen to an 18-mo low.-The reality remains that growth has been slowing all...ECRIMon, 05 Oct 2015 12:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-white-queen-s-rulehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-white-queen-s-ruleSeven years after the financial crisis, the absence of any Fed rate hike seems surreal, and is reminiscent of the White Queen’s dictum in Through the Looking Glass: “The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day.” When Alice objects, “It must come sometimes to ‘jam to-day,’” the Queen retorts, “No, it can’t. It’s jam every other day: to-day isn’t any other day, you know.”W...ECRIMon, 05 Oct 2015 08:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV/Radio guest on Monday, October 5, at 8:30 AM .ECRIMon, 05 Oct 2015 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-inflation-pressures-easehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-inflation-pressures-easeECRI’s Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge ticked down in August to 98.4 from 100.1. The value of the EZFIG lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Eurozone inflation.As anticipated by the earlier downturn in the EZFIG, Eurozone inflation has eased lately, ticking down to a five-month low in its latest reading. Meanwhile, with the EZFIG declining to a six-month low, Eurozone inflation pres...ECRIFri, 02 Oct 2015 10:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-decreases-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreases to 130.7 from 132.1. The growth rate ticks up to -1.7% from -1.9%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 02 Oct 2015 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slips-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slips-2U.S. inflationary pressures were down in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 101.0 from an unrevised August 101.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“While staying above March’s 16-month low, the USFIG is well below its earlier highs,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. “Thus, underlying i...ECRIFri, 02 Oct 2015 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-misses-the-mark-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-misses-the-mark-againECRI has just updated its Japanese Future Inflation Gauge , which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in Japanese inflation.Year-over-year core consumer price inflation, free of the distortions induced by last year’s sales tax hike, slipped in in its latest reading to -0.1%. This measure not only continues to be far below the 2% target set by the Bank of Japan , but is also negative for t...ECRIThu, 01 Oct 2015 15:01:33 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-falling-exports-cause-concern-in-taiwan-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-falling-exports-cause-concern-in-taiwan-1Last month the Taiwanese government cut its 2015 GDP forecast by more than half, citing weak exports. Then, in a move that surprised the consensus, the central bank also cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2009. Falling export growth, against the backdrop of collapsing world trade, has clearly been a concern for the export-driven Taiwanese economy. Indeed, year-over-year gr...ECRIThu, 01 Oct 2015 09:52:08 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-pursuing-the-purple-squirrel-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-pursuing-the-purple-squirrel-1The latest surge in job openings to a record high, according to the JOLTS data, was seen as some as evidence of an extraordinarily tight labor market. What they missed amid the euphoric headlines was the drop in actual hiring. As the chart shows, the difference between the number hired and the number of job openings dropped to about half a million shortly before the start of the last two recess...ECRIThu, 01 Oct 2015 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-second-half-capitulationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-second-half-capitulationAt the beginning of the year – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown. What most may not realize is that U.S. economic growth has actually been falling since early 2015. Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employme...ECRIWed, 30 Sep 2015 08:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-pursuing-the-purple-squirrelhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-pursuing-the-purple-squirrelThe latest surge in job openings to a record high, according to the JOLTS data, was seen as some as evidence of an extraordinarily tight labor market. What they missed amid the euphoric headlines was the drop in actual hiring. As the chart shows, the difference between the number hired and the number of job openings dropped to about half a million shortly before the start of the last two recess...ECRIMon, 28 Sep 2015 09:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lack-of-slack-not-coming-backhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lack-of-slack-not-coming-backA key question is whether any major central bank can afford to start a rate hike cycle in the foreseeable future. And if not, are they effectively stuck around the zero lower bound ? In that context, it is somewhat surprising to recall that the clamor for an “exit strategy” was already growing in the fall of 2009 – so much so that ECRI felt compelled to push back, by showing the historical lags...ECRIMon, 28 Sep 2015 08:59:09 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-up-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 132.1 from 131.1. The growth rate increases to -1.9% from -2.2%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 25 Sep 2015 10:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uk-home-prices-what-to-expecthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uk-home-prices-what-to-expectWith interest rates at a record low, and over two million jobs created since 2009, real U.K. home prices have climbed about one-fifth since their post-Global Financial Crisis low. However, some deem the U.K. housing market one of the most vulnerable in the world, characterized by a household-debt-to-income ratio that is well above those in other developed economies.Indeed, home prices recently ...ECRIFri, 25 Sep 2015 09:36:49 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-double-digit-imported-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-double-digit-imported-deflationSix years ago — the last time global import price deflation was this intense — the worst global recession in decades was ending. A key question today is whether recession risks have mounted in the U.S. or any other major economy.Earlier this year, year-over-year world import volume growth dropped to its lowest readings since 2009. Today, it remains in a decisive downturn and near May’s five-and...ECRIWed, 23 Sep 2015 09:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-or-no-recession-that-is-the-question-for-canadahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-recession-or-no-recession-that-is-the-question-for-canadaWith Canadian GDP dropping for two straight quarters, many think that the economy is “officially” in recession, citing the simplistic recession definition of “two down quarters of GDP.” However, two down quarters of GDP is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a recession. It is well known that weakness in the U.S. economy – where economic growth has been falling since the start of...ECRITue, 22 Sep 2015 09:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-stresses-global-weakness-and-quietly-recognizes-slowing-us-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-stresses-global-weakness-and-quietly-recognizes-slowing-us-economyLast January we warned of a closing window for liftoff of the fed funds rate, asking the rhetorical question, “if not now, when?” in the face of an impending slowdown. Now, the Fed is in the awkward position of justifying no rate hike last week by blaming “global economic and financial developments,” while assuring the markets that the “U.S. economy … has been performing well.”Meanwhile, the la...ECRIMon, 21 Sep 2015 09:01:59 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 131.1 from 130.9. The growth rate slips to -2.2% from -2.0%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 18 Sep 2015 10:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-business-and-growth-rate-cycle-dates-determined-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-business-and-growth-rate-cycle-dates-determined-for-japanToday ECRI is announcing a new Japanese growth rate cycle trough date, August 2014.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landi...ECRIFri, 18 Sep 2015 09:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-flashback-if-not-now-whenhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-flashback-if-not-now-whenAt the beginning of the year we asked a rhetorical question about rate hike timing: “If not now, when?” This was because – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.  The Fed’s current rate hike plans are on a collision course with an economic cycle that has already been slowing. In fact, th...ECRIWed, 16 Sep 2015 11:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 131.0 from 130.6. The growth rate ticks down to -2.0% from -1.7%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 11 Sep 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-outlook-jobs-world-trade-growth-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-outlook-jobs-world-trade-growth-fed1. Fed rate hikes on collision course with economic cycle Typically, rate hikes begin when the economy is accelerating, and in turn cause the economy to start slowing a few quarters later. This is why an initial rate hike is taken as a sign that the economy is just fine, thank you.  What people may not realize is that U.S. economic growth has actually been falling since the start of 2015. Year-...ECRIThu, 10 Sep 2015 09:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-2ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest host on Thursday, September 10, at 6:00 AM .ECRIThu, 10 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fed-should-boost-rates-but-not-just-yethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fed-should-boost-rates-but-not-just-yetThe Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting the week after next.I am not an economist, neither do I play one on television or anywhere else. Therefore, I shall deal with this question with a single hand.And, to repeat, at its highly anticipated meeting on Sept. 16-17, the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting panel will opt not to lift its target range for fed...ECRIFri, 04 Sep 2015 11:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-declineshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-declinesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index declines to 130.5 from 131.5. The growth rate falls to -1.7% from -0.9%.  To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 04 Sep 2015 10:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-2U.S. inflationary pressures were up in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.9 from an unrevised July 101.2 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While rising further above March's 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underly...ECRIFri, 04 Sep 2015 09:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflationary-pressures-on-the-rise-in-the-euro-zonehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflationary-pressures-on-the-rise-in-the-euro-zoneInflationary pressures in the euro zone have inched up, suggesting prices will rise in the bloc in the coming months, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 100.2 in July from June's 100.1."With the EZFIG ed...ECRIFri, 04 Sep 2015 09:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-productivity-jobs-and-wageshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-productivity-jobs-and-wagesThe Fed has spent much of 2015 cultivating expectations for a Fed funds rate hike this year. However, justifying near-term rate hikes just became a whole lot harder with last month’s spike in global market volatility raising doubts over the resiliency of the U.S. economy, while any surge in inflation remains nowhere in sight.One issue that now looms large on the Fed’s rate hike agenda is the sl...ECRIFri, 04 Sep 2015 09:05:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-should-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-be-worriedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-should-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-be-worriedThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy rate at a record low of 2% earlier this week, maintaining that economic conditions still require accommodative monetary policy. In fact, Q2 GDP growth came in at a mere 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, just half the pace widely expected and well below the previous quarter’s pace. Despite the disappointing data, Australian Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey sees...ECRIThu, 03 Sep 2015 14:59:55 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australian-economy-shooting-for-goldhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australian-economy-shooting-for-goldAustralia started the week as though it were going for Olympic gold: “We are going to break the record and go beyond the Dutch,” said Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey, referring to Australia’s remarkable 26 consecutive years without a recession. But backward-looking goals give a false sense of invulnerability, especially since year-over-year real GDP growth has fallen to a seven-quarter low, well b...ECRIThu, 03 Sep 2015 08:59:37 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cheap-laborhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cheap-laborThe sustained decline in the official jobless rate – now approaching the Fed’s estimate of “full employment” – is a misleading indicator of labor market slack. Indeed, the stagnation in nominal wage growth is consistent with the weakness in the employment/population ratio. That said, even the E/P ratio may be overstating the health of the jobs market.After dropping to three-decade lows in the w...ECRITue, 01 Sep 2015 09:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-job-growth-boom-fizzleshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-job-growth-boom-fizzlesWith the U.K. economy on a recovery track since 2012, many had grown accustomed to continuous improvement in its labor market. However, weaker job market readings of late have caught many by surprise. For instance, the number of people employed recently fell by the most in almost four years, while the unemployment rate also worsened for the first time in over a year. Economists seemed to be at ...ECRIMon, 31 Aug 2015 09:20:03 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-3The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 131.5 from 131.7. The growth rate slips to -0.9% from -0.4%.  For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 28 Aug 2015 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-deflationary-fearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-deflationary-fearsSix years ago – the last time global import price deflation was this intense – the worst global recession in decades was just ending. Years of attempts to pull demand forward from the future, which enabled capacity building that has boosted supply, have resulted in massive deflation, enormous amounts of global debt and falling trend growth around the world. These developments raise the question...ECRIFri, 28 Aug 2015 09:13:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edges-down The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 131.7 from 132.2. The growth rate decreases to -0.4% from 0.1%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 21 Aug 2015 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-looks-to-consumers-to-enable-rate-hikehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-looks-to-consumers-to-enable-rate-hikeThe Fed is on course to raise rates this year, and to do so they are counting on the resilient U.S. consumer to keep spending. As the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes reveal, the Fed anticipates “consumer spending to rise moderately over the near term, [supported by] [c]ontinued gains in employment and income.” This sentiment is also shared by the consensus, following what many hail...ECRIFri, 21 Aug 2015 08:58:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-shrinking-trade-piehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-shrinking-trade-pieAfter years of extraordinary policy stimulus around the globe – aimed at pulling demand forward from the future – world trade growth has collapsed even further since we last highlighted it publicly. Indeed, year-over-year world export growth is now nearing zero.This is happening even with everything “on sale” as yoy export price growth has plunged deep into negative territory . After some four ...ECRIMon, 17 Aug 2015 10:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 132.3 from 132.9. The growth rate virtually unchanged at 0.2%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 14 Aug 2015 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-increasing-risks-of-more-frequent-recessions-in-the-global-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-increasing-risks-of-more-frequent-recessions-in-the-global-economyAn era of more frequent recessions – which we identified years ago as the yo-yo years – has been ushered in by long-term lower trend growth. The global economy transitioned into these yo-yo years from the 20th to the 21st century, with the shift intensifying after the Global Financial Crisis. Yet, many economists continue to ignore this critical development, making forecasts based on trend grow...ECRIThu, 13 Aug 2015 08:56:18 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-productivity-and-inflation-a-broken-relationshiphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-productivity-and-inflation-a-broken-relationshipIn recent years, U.S. productivity growth has been disappointing to say the least, averaging just over ½% a year over the past four years, far below its post-World War II average.  In fact, having just experienced the biggest back-to-back quarterly declines in productivity in over two decades, one could say that the U.S. is in a “productivity recession.”     Clearly, sluggish productivity growt...ECRIMon, 10 Aug 2015 09:07:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipped-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipped-1 The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 132.9 from 133.0. The growth rate unchanged at 0.2%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 07 Aug 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-1U.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.2 from an revised June 100.8 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Having increased in July, the USFIG has risen further above March's 16-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "However...ECRIFri, 07 Aug 2015 09:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-future-inflation-european-central-bank-ecbhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-future-inflation-european-central-bank-ecbLONDON: Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have ticked down but are still on a rising trend, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dipped to 100.3 in June from May's four-year high."Despite its latest downtick, the...ECRIFri, 07 Aug 2015 06:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-as-u-k-inflation-slips-back-to-zero-what-lies-aheadhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-as-u-k-inflation-slips-back-to-zero-what-lies-aheadThe Bank of England downgraded its near-term forecasts for inflation this week. With just one member of the Monetary Policy Committee voting to raise rates, the consensus now expects the next rate hike to be later than previously thought. Indeed, year-over-year CPI inflation slipped to 0% in June, remaining well under the BoE's target of 2%. In addition, retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.2% m...ECRIThu, 06 Aug 2015 16:46:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-collision-coursehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-collision-courseThe Fed’s rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle. In fact, the Fed is signaling a rate hike this year – if not by September, then by December – clearly expecting a pickup in growth. ECRI’s leading indexes suggest the opposite. Indeed, a service sector slowdown has already joined the manufacturing slowdown that started last fall, and so the slowdown in overall growth i...ECRIWed, 05 Aug 2015 08:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-optimism-about-spain-mounts-but-what-about-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-optimism-about-spain-mounts-but-what-about-jobsThe prevailing wisdom is that the Spanish economic recovery is gaining momentum, even though the labor market remains extremely weak. Indeed, the Spanish government has recently revised up its overall economic growth forecast for 2015, while the IMF also chimed in, suggesting that the Spanish recovery “has gathered speed.”Yet, even though the economy has performed relatively well of late, more ...ECRIMon, 03 Aug 2015 08:58:45 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down-1 The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 133.0 from 133.4. The growth rate slips to 0.2% from 0.3%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 31 Jul 2015 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-growth-fearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-growth-fearsLooking at the decline in commodity prices, along with the prospect of a Fed rate hike, many are starting to believe that things are falling apart. And following our updated view on the U.S. economic slowdown, the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index , which had begun to edge up, dropped to a 15-month low in July. Alongside the recent crash in the Chinese stock market, which has lost nearly a thir...ECRIWed, 29 Jul 2015 09:09:34 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-canadian-manufacturing-s-impact-on-overall-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-canadian-manufacturing-s-impact-on-overall-economyThe collapse in oil prices combined with the slowing U.S. economy have hammered the Canadian economy in recent months, leading the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark rate for the second time this year as Canadian GDP contracted in both Q1 and Q2 2015. While this satisfies the simplistic recession rule-of-thumb, by the proper recession definition – subsuming the performance of output, employmen...ECRIMon, 27 Jul 2015 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-up The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 133.4 from 132.4. The growth rate ticked down to 0.3% from 0.4%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 24 Jul 2015 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-looming-fed-rate-hike-and-recession-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-looming-fed-rate-hike-and-recession-risksDuring Congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided further evidence that a Fed rate hike is forthcoming, saying: “If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target…” At the same time, she made it clear that the Fed “is not going to raise rates…if we think it’s going to t...ECRIWed, 22 Jul 2015 08:57:12 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-business-and-growth-rate-cycle-dates-determined-including-japan-and-germanyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-business-and-growth-rate-cycle-dates-determined-including-japan-and-germanyToday ECRI is announcing new business and growth rate cycle dates, for Japan, Germany, Brazil, Switzerland, Austria, Taiwan, New Zealand and South Africa. Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Grow...ECRIMon, 20 Jul 2015 10:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slippedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-slipped The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 132.6 from 133.5. The growth rate decreased to 0.6% from 1.2%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 17 Jul 2015 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-s-outlook-for-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-s-outlook-for-exportsThe Bank of Japan recently lowered its GDP forecast for the year, partly because of weakness in exports. However, BoJ Governor Kuroda remained optimistic that exports would pick up, saying, “[A]s for the outlook, exports are expected to increase moderately… due to improvements in overseas economies and the boost from a weak yen."To verify whether Governor Kuroda’s positive outlook is warranted,...ECRIThu, 16 Jul 2015 09:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-recoveries-remain-resilienthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-recoveries-remain-resilientGrowing ranks of the great and the good are worried that the global economy, like Humpty Dumpty, will have a great fall, never to be put together again. We understand their apprehension, given our concern since the summer of 2008 about collapsing trend growth. But in terms of our current assessment of global recession risk, we aren’t ready to join in. This is because the major developed economi...ECRIWed, 15 Jul 2015 08:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-two-speed-economy-shifts-gearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-two-speed-economy-shifts-gearsIn what has become a recurring theme, 2015 began with economists predicting that the U.S. economy would finally take off and achieve 3% GDP growth. In fact, in recent months, expectations for a second-half rebound in GDP growth still abounded, with the weak Q1 reading labeled an outlier. With Fed policy staying accommodative, a recovering consumer was widely expected to propel the economy to “e...ECRIMon, 13 Jul 2015 08:50:05 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-unchanged The U.S. Weekly Leading Index unchanged at 133.4. The growth rate slips to 1.2% from 1.4%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 10 Jul 2015 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-greenspan-conundrum-reduxhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-greenspan-conundrum-reduxWhile the consensus expected 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise in the second half of 2014, they continued declining. Given improving economic conditions and rising expectations of a Fed Funds rate hike, this confounded the consensus as long-term bond yields typically rise in tandem with shorter-term yields.The last time a similar situation occurred was in 2005, when long-term yields kept fal...ECRITue, 07 Jul 2015 08:55:42 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-edged-down The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 133.4 from 134.0. The growth rate rose to 1.4% from 1.2%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIThu, 02 Jul 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slips-1U.S. inflationary pressures were down in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.5 from an unrevised May 101.3 reading, according to data released Thursday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While holding above March's 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures are still muted," ECRI Chief Operations O...ECRIThu, 02 Jul 2015 10:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-risinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-rising Euro zone inflationary pressures are at a four-year high, suggesting the European Central Bank's trillion-euro bond-buying programme is working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Thursday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 100.4 in May from April's 100.2."Euro zone inf...ECRIThu, 02 Jul 2015 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-with-inflation-easing-in-germany-and-eurozone-should-ecb-worryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-with-inflation-easing-in-germany-and-eurozone-should-ecb-worryIn the midst of developments in Greece, the latest disappointing German inflation data is an unwelcome additional concern. The slippage in German inflation to just 0.1% year-over-year in June has sparked fears that weak inflation will continue to plague the Eurozone. Indeed, it is already weighing on overall Eurozone inflation, which ticked down after rising for four months, raising questions a...ECRIWed, 01 Jul 2015 14:48:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-why-the-recent-rise-in-wage-inflation-may-not-be-goodhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-why-the-recent-rise-in-wage-inflation-may-not-be-goodThe recent rise in wage inflation is being used to support the case for rate hikes – including by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who now sees these “tentative signs of stronger wage growth” as a harbinger of inflation.The chart shows that year-over-year growth in nominal average hourly earnings has indeed risen to a five-and-a-half-year high . But, as in 2014, it has risen only because growth in ho...ECRIWed, 01 Jul 2015 11:17:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-low-trend-growth-productivity-and-the-us-economic-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-low-trend-growth-productivity-and-the-us-economic-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss low trend growth, productivity, wages, the U.S. economic outlook, and more.A number of analysts have been ratcheting down their long-term trend GDP growth forecasts, with one well-known house finally reducing theirs from 2¼% to 1¾%. And the cuts are not over yet. Those still predicting a return to 2½ - 3% long-term GDP growth are essential...ECRIWed, 01 Jul 2015 08:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keene-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest host on Wednesday, July 1, at 6:00 AM . ECRIWed, 01 Jul 2015 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-assessing-major-economies-resilience-to-shockshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-assessing-major-economies-resilience-to-shocksConcerns about a looming economic catastrophe triggered by Greece or a Fed rate hike are increasingly being voiced by a veritable who’s who of luminaries. This is based on the mainstream belief that recessions are caused entirely by shocks. But as we explained in detail earlier this year, our approach to recession forecasting is quite different. Based on decades of research, we have come to und...ECRIMon, 29 Jun 2015 08:53:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 134.0 from 134.3. The growth rate increases to 1.2% from 1.0%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 26 Jun 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-hopes-for-pickup-in-productivity-settles-for-disappointmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-hopes-for-pickup-in-productivity-settles-for-disappointmentWith the U.S. in what one might call a “productivity recession” – given back-to-back quarters of negative productivity growth – Fed Chairman Yellen remains hopeful that productivity growth will return to its long-term trend, while allowing that “it’s conceivable that… [it] disappoints.” Of course, the Fed could also gauge productivity growth prospects by examining real interest rates, which ref...ECRIThu, 25 Jun 2015 08:56:32 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-wage-inflation-deceptionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-wage-inflation-deceptionHere we go again. The recent rise in wage inflation, having become an obvious fact, is increasingly being used to support the case for rate hikes – including by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who now sees these “tentative signs of stronger wage growth” as a harbinger of inflation.Last year, when this notion first surfaced, we had disagreed, recalling Sherlock Holmes’s dictum that “there is nothing ...ECRIWed, 24 Jun 2015 08:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-projections-still-skewed-by-productivity-hopeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-projections-still-skewed-by-productivity-hopesMuch hinges on the Fed’s belief that productivity growth will revert to its decades-old pace of around 2¼ % a year. When asked about the Fed’s improving labor market projections for next year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen responded that “productivity growth… affects the pace of improvement in the labor market… and…the pace of improvement in the labor market that we’re projecting reflects the notion t...ECRIMon, 22 Jun 2015 08:59:49 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-weekly-leading-index-ticks-up The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 134.3 from 134.1. The growth rate rose to 1.0% from 0.8%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 19 Jun 2015 10:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-patterns-in-recessions-and-recoverieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-patterns-in-recessions-and-recoveriesOn June 11th ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke at the Madrid Fund Forum conference.The presentation was titled, "Shifting Patterns in Recessions and Recoveries"Click here for a PDF file of the presentation slides with notes. ECRIWed, 17 Jun 2015 08:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-black-hole-of-strategyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-black-hole-of-strategy“Strategically and tactically managing the business cycle … is truly the ‘black hole’ of corporate strategy – for it is arguably the case that the business cycle is one of the single most important determinants of corporate profitability.” This was the conclusion from an analysis of hundreds of companies. The key, however, is a systematic framework to determine the importance and impact of the ...ECRIMon, 15 Jun 2015 09:00:20 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-increasedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-increased The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 134.2 from 133.1. The growth rate ticked down to 0.9% from 1.0%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 12 Jun 2015 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-subpar-recovery-longstanding-misunderstandinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-subpar-recovery-longstanding-misunderstandingIt is a truth universally acknowledged — or nearly so — that the United States has experienced a subpar recovery from the Great Recession. As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put it at his farewell press conference, “we have been disappointed in the pace of growth, and we don’t fully understand why.”Regardless, partisans — including economists — have jumped into the fray with ready explanations, finge...ECRIThu, 11 Jun 2015 13:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-madrid-spain-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-madrid-spain-presentationOn June 10 & 11 ECRI will visit Madrid for a private presentation.ECRIWed, 10 Jun 2015 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-edged-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-edged-down The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 133.1 from 133.7. The growth rate decreased to 1.0% from 1.4%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 05 Jun 2015 10:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-gainshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-gainsU.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.3 from a revised April 101.0 reading, first reported as 101.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG creeping up, underlying inflation pressures continue to firm," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.ECRIFri, 05 Jun 2015 10:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-pressure-rise-eurozonehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-pressure-rise-eurozoneInflationary pressures are rising in the eurozone, suggesting the European Central Bank's trillion-euro bond buying programme is having the desired effect, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 99.7 in April from March's 99.1."The E...ECRIFri, 05 Jun 2015 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-no-fairy-tale-ending-in-sight-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-no-fairy-tale-ending-in-sight-for-japanWith a slew of recent data painting a rather bleak picture of the Japanese economy, ECRI has just updated its Japanese Future Inflation Gauge , which offers a different perspective on the outlook for Japanese inflation.     In another blow to Abenomics, year-over-year core consumer price inflation, free of the distortions induced by last year’s sales tax hike, slipped back to zero in its latest...ECRIThu, 04 Jun 2015 16:35:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-cyclical-outlook-for-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-cyclical-outlook-for-chinaA key question for many around the world is whether Chinese economic growth will revive anytime soon, or continue to languish. In 2013 China cracked down on rampant credit expansion, as local governments and state-owned enterprises used the shadow banking sector to circumvent regulations to finance risky investments. The government was willing to accept short-term pain for long-term gain in ord...ECRIThu, 04 Jun 2015 09:59:15 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-import-prices-nosedivehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-import-prices-nosediveImport price growth has nosedived – in both advanced and emerging economies – to the lowest readings since 2009. This is the flip side of the picture we had showcased earlier, noting that, “Following a post-recession pop, we got collapsing world trade growth, and that’s even with [export] prices falling over the past three to four years.”In less than four years since their 2011 peaks, import pr...ECRIWed, 03 Jun 2015 11:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-phenomena-require-global-explanationshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-phenomena-require-global-explanationsThe negative Q1 2015 GDP print is widely blamed on a seasonal adjustment problem that’s really a non-issue for a year-over-year comparison, which shows U.S. real GDP growth to be just 2.7% – even when flattered by comparison to a much weaker Q1 2014. And if the Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” is correct, yoy GDP growth will fall well under 2% in Q2 2015, keeping GDP essentially flat for the first half ...ECRIFri, 29 May 2015 13:51:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-ticks-down The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 133.7 from 133.9. The growth rate slips to 1.4% from 1.5%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 29 May 2015 10:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-silk-and-spicehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-silk-and-spiceThe recent rise in nominal Bund yields is related mainly to the inflation upturn anticipated by the German FIG, along with the uptick in commodity price inflation. The current configuration of ECRI’s leading indexes reveal cyclical pressures on yields, but in any event, they are a long way from getting back to earlier highs because the recent cyclical re-rating of inflation expectations has occ...ECRIFri, 29 May 2015 08:31:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reflation-vindicationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reflation-vindicationGerman Bund yields have spiked up in recent weeks, squashing speculation that they would turn negative in short order. Not coincidentally, Eurozone deflation fears have eased.The upturn in nominal 10-year Bund yields was presaged by a surge in inflation expectations beginning in early 2015, when Eurozone inflation turned up . Notably, this inflation upturn, as well as the upswing in the market’...ECRIWed, 27 May 2015 09:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-japanese-industrial-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-japanese-industrial-growthA broadening international industrial upturn is underway, and in Japan this upswing began relatively early, as it did in other countries where currency depreciation has acted as a tailwind. Indeed, after bottoming last summer, Japanese industrial production growth reached a ten-month high in January. Though growth dipped recently, the latest figure still beat consensus expectations. Even so, th...ECRIWed, 27 May 2015 08:56:21 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-scoping-out-a-phantom-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-scoping-out-a-phantom-recessionEconomists are immensely influential. More frequently than the practitioners of perhaps any other academic discipline, they are called on for their learned judgments on public policy.Yet on a public policy question that is central to their field, economists have often been dead wrong. Economists, as a group, have been so bad at forecasting the ups and downs of the business cycle that it’s a won...ECRISat, 23 May 2015 15:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-slips-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 133.9 from 134.6. The growth rate ticks up to 1.5% from 1.2%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 22 May 2015 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-rate-hike-likely-postponed-due-to-inclement-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-rate-hike-likely-postponed-due-to-inclement-dataWhile the Fed remains anxious to hike rates, weak growth may cause further delays in liftoff. Indeed, Q1 GDP growth came in barely positive, and it is now expected to be revised negative. Furthermore, Q1 only saw positive growth because inventory buildup contributed three-quarters of a percentage point to growth.But, with inventories likely to act as a drag on Q2 GDP growth, the Fed is facing n...ECRIThu, 21 May 2015 08:56:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-service-sector-holds-key-to-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-service-sector-holds-key-to-growth-prospectsThe Bank of England recently lowered its 2015 U.K. growth forecast, while maintaining that “the outlook for growth remains solid.” Indeed, despite slower-than-expected GDP growth in Q1, some have attributed the weakness to temporary political uncertainty. Meanwhile, given its dominance, the service sector remains critical to any economic growth, offsetting weakness elsewhere in the economy. ECR...ECRITue, 19 May 2015 08:55:10 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-south-african-cycle-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-south-african-cycle-updateThe South African economy has been in expansion since its 2008-09 recession, but its growth has slowed since early 2011. This prolonged period of slowing growth swiftly changed South African fortunes, having joined high-flying BRIC economies in 2010 to earning a place among the “Fragile” emerging markets in 2013. In addition, persistent disruptions in electricity supply have hampered growth eve...ECRIMon, 18 May 2015 08:58:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 134.6 from 134.2. The growth rate rose to 1.2% from 0.5%.To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 15 May 2015 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-surf-s-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-surf-s-upIn sharp contrast with the Wall Street consensus last July that global growth would accelerate, ECRI was warning of an impending global slowdown. Accordingly, growth in the Journal of Commerce -ECRI Industrial Price Index * peaked in July , before starting its sharp decline. By the fall Wall Street became wise to the downturn in energy prices in particular, focusing on supply concerns. However,...ECRIThu, 14 May 2015 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-draghi-is-winning-the-main-qe-battlehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-draghi-is-winning-the-main-qe-battleHuge bond market turbulence is driving up euro zone yields. But Mario Draghi's magic is working, despite appearances to the contrary. The quantitative easing programme which the president of the European Central Bank shepherded into existence is meeting one of his main objectives.Were euro-QE aimed at lowering yields on sovereign debt, then Draghi would be wondering what had gone wrong. The yie...ECRIWed, 13 May 2015 15:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-outlook-for-home-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-outlook-for-home-pricesHomes prices have grown significantly since the depths of the Great Recession. However, despite the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy, the U.S. housing market is still a shadow of its former self, and remains some distance away from a full recovery. Notably, home price growth has slowed dramatically since 2013, residential fixed investment remains weak, and the home ownership rate is the low...ECRITue, 12 May 2015 09:34:17 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-2012-us-recession-call-reduxhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-2012-us-recession-call-reduxECRI’s 2011 recession call got the future direction of growth right, but even though the slowdown turned out to be the worst non-recession in U.S. history, it was not an outright recession and, in that regard, a false alarm. Aside from lowering our batting average a little, does that missed call on an outright recession mean that recessions cannot be forecast? We’ve examined the episode in dept...ECRIMon, 11 May 2015 15:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-oil-price-volatility-recessions-u-s-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-oil-price-volatility-recessions-u-s-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call, the implications of oil price volatility, the two-speed economy in the U.S., and more.ECRIMon, 11 May 2015 13:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-risesU.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.1 from a revised March 100.2 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG moving up, underlying inflation pressures have risen a little," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.ECRIFri, 08 May 2015 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-unchangedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index unchanged at 134.2. The growth rate rises to 0.5% from -0.1%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 08 May 2015 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-oil-price-volatility-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-oil-price-volatility-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call and the implications of oil price volatility.ECRIFri, 08 May 2015 09:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-crude-oil-price-volatility-the-greater-moderation-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-crude-oil-price-volatility-the-greater-moderation-1“The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” was the IMF’s conclusion following a 63-country study. In contrast, a scrutiny of ECRI’s track record prompted The Economist to declare – prior to our 2008 recession call – that “ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a fals...ECRIFri, 08 May 2015 06:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-euro-zone-inflationary-pressures-risinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-euro-zone-inflationary-pressures-risingInflation pressures in the euro zone have risen, suggesting the European Central Bank's 1-trillion-euro bond buying program may be working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, climbed to 98.7 in March from February's 97.6."With the EZFIG ...ECRIFri, 08 May 2015 03:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keenehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interview-with-tom-keeneECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest on Friday, May 8, at 6:00 AM .ECRIFri, 08 May 2015 01:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-deflation-fears-in-germanyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-deflation-fears-in-germanyWith Eurozone inflation picking up, ECRI has just updated its German Future Inflation Gauge , providing unique insight into the outlook for inflation in Europe’s largest economy.     German inflation was virtually unchanged at 0.3% year-over-year in April, marking its third consecutive month in positive territory and easing broader concerns of deflation in the Eurozone. This is in stark contras...ECRIThu, 07 May 2015 16:58:35 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-despite-higher-gdp-spanish-unemployment-rate-still-risinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-despite-higher-gdp-spanish-unemployment-rate-still-risingECRI has just updated its Spanish Long Leading Index the value of which lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Two years ago, ECRI correctly anticipated a growth rate cycle upturn in Spain.  Indeed, the Spanish economy grew 1.4% in 2014 and in Q1 2015, GDP growth rose to 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, the fastest pace since 2007. More rec...ECRITue, 05 May 2015 09:01:21 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-chasing-the-monsoonhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-chasing-the-monsoonIn an effort to boost growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut rates twice earlier in the year, but kept it flat for the last two months. While some believe the drop in the growth rate of the Indian Wholesale Price Index to nearly a four-decade low should provide further room for easing, others are concerned that the rise in oil prices and a sub-par monsoon could push prices up, making additional ...ECRIMon, 04 May 2015 09:03:04 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 134.2 from 133.1. The growth rate ticked up to -0.1% from -0.7%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 01 May 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-two-speed-economy-more-than-air-pocket-sky-not-fallinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-two-speed-economy-more-than-air-pocket-sky-not-fallingWall Street Journal Live talks with ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan about the U.S. economic growth outlook.Read ECRI article on Two-Speed Economy.ECRIWed, 29 Apr 2015 10:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-two-speed-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-two-speed-economyA whiff of panic is in the air. So much so that, with economic surprise indexes falling to their most negative readings in years, the “R” word has begun to pop up again, with some observers warning of a 1937-like relapse – into a depression, no less. To put the state of the economy in perspective, Chart 1 presents the growth rate of ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index , which subsumes the key indicato...ECRIWed, 29 Apr 2015 09:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-is-the-surf-up-commodity-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-is-the-surf-up-commodity-pricesIndustrial commodity prices are now rising. In a little over a month, crude oil prices have increased by about a quarter. But this is about much more than oil. Growth in the Journal of Commerce-ECRI Industrial Price Index turned up two and a half months ago, and has now risen to a four-month high. In doing so, it has validated our prediction that “the odds are that [industrial price index] grow...ECRIWed, 29 Apr 2015 09:06:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-exports-provide-a-boost-to-the-french-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-exports-provide-a-boost-to-the-french-economyWhile the French finance ministry decreased its economic growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and kept its 2015 forecast at 1%, export growth has improved recently, rising to a three-year high in its latest reading. With exports accounting for more than a quarter of GDP, it is important to determine whether export growth will continue to strengthen, and if so, provide a welcome boost to the overa...ECRIMon, 27 Apr 2015 08:57:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-rate-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-rate-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 133.2 from 132.8. The growth rate increased to -0.7% from -1.3%. For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 24 Apr 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-crude-oil-price-volatility-the-greater-moderationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-crude-oil-price-volatility-the-greater-moderationAt the 24th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented "The 'Subpar' Recovery: a Longstanding Misunderstanding," covering the following points:1. The weak pace of recovery from the Great Recession was in line with historical patterns. The business cycle owed us nothing more. 2. Despite massive global QE, the long-term decline in trend nominal GDP growth is truly globa...ECRIThu, 23 Apr 2015 13:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economy-confuses-the-consensushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-economy-confuses-the-consensusIn late December, on the heels of a strong GDP report for Q3 2014, ECRI explained that it was premature to be overly optimistic, because we had seen similar readings before since the Great Recession, only to fall back to weaker growth. Just one month later, we highlighted in a report to our clients how ECRI’s outlook for U.S. economic growth had diverged from that of the consensus: ”Our analysi...ECRITue, 21 Apr 2015 09:09:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-minsky-levy-conference-slides-and-audiohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-achuthan-minsky-levy-conference-slides-and-audioOn April 16 ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke at the 24th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference.The presentation was titled, "The “Subpar” Recovery: a Longstanding Misunderstanding."Click here for a PDF file of the presentation slides. The slides should be coupled with the audio available below.ECRIFri, 17 Apr 2015 13:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-down-2The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 132.5 from 132.8. The growth rate increased to -1.4% from -1.9%. For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 17 Apr 2015 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-washington-d-chttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-washington-d-cOn April 16 ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join a panel discussion at the Levy Institute's 24th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the US and World Economies. ECRIThu, 16 Apr 2015 09:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-d-c-member-meetingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-d-c-member-meetingsECRI will visit Washington D.C. on April 15 for meetings with professional members.ECRIWed, 15 Apr 2015 09:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-canada-rate-cuthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-canada-rate-cutIn January, the Bank of Canada shocked markets by cutting rates to 0.75% against expectations of holding rates flat before raising them in late 2015 or early 2016. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz called the cut “insurance” against the decline in oil prices, and allowed for further cuts as necessary to boost the economy. With energy-related activities accounting for about 11% of GDP in the manufactur...ECRIMon, 13 Apr 2015 08:43:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brazil-gloom-and-doomhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brazil-gloom-and-doomBrazil was a poster child of the BRICS countries, growing rapidly for over a decade. But the economy is now suffering from slow growth and high inflation, while a corruption scandal engulfs the country’s largest company. To combat high inflation and stabilize the real, the Banco Central do Brasil has raised its policy rate to its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis, putting Brazil i...ECRIFri, 10 Apr 2015 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-ticks-up-1The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 132.8 from 132.7. The growth rate edged up to -2.0% from -2.4%. ECRIFri, 10 Apr 2015 10:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospect-for-south-african-economic-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospect-for-south-african-economic-growthWith the consensus remaining pessimistic about the future of South Africa’s growth, the latest update to ECRI’s South African Long Leading Index shows whether or not the South African economy is gaining momentum. In the midst of a weak global outlook two years ago, we reviewed the potential of Sub-Saharan Africa as an alternate source of growth showing it as a mixed bag, but with clearly improv...ECRITue, 07 Apr 2015 09:02:14 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-wli-increaseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-wli-increasesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 132.6 from 131.5. The growth rate rose to -2.5% from -3.3%. For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 03 Apr 2015 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-risesInflation pressures in the euro zone have picked up, suggesting prices in the region may begin rising soon, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 97.3 in February from 95.9 in January.“In line with the earlier cyclical upturn in the...ECRIFri, 03 Apr 2015 09:12:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-preemptive-strike-from-the-bank-of-mexico-in-the-cardshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-preemptive-strike-from-the-bank-of-mexico-in-the-cardsWith Mexican monetary policy at an important juncture, ECRI has just updated its Mexican Future Inflation Gauge , providing unique insight into pressures on monetary policy in the coming months.     Faced with a weak peso, lackluster business and consumer confidence, sluggish exports, and cuts to government spending, consensus forecasts of Mexican growth fell for the sixth straight month in Mar...ECRIFri, 03 Apr 2015 09:09:58 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-where-have-the-gasoline-savings-gonehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-where-have-the-gasoline-savings-goneConsumer spending has disappointed in recent months. With consumers benefiting from lower gasoline prices and a stronger labor market, their apparent reluctance to boost spending has increasingly baffled economists. With consensus estimates holding on to hopes for 3.1% GDP growth this year, explanations for the disappointment have been many and varied. Some blame the harsh winter, while others ...ECRIThu, 02 Apr 2015 09:14:09 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-circling-the-drainhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-circling-the-drainThe world today is awash in unprecedented amounts of debt – more than ever before in human history. According to McKinsey, all major economies today have higher Debt/GDP ratios than in 2007, with corporate debt about 1.5 times, and government debt over 1.75 times as large. As a result, global debt has grown to some $200 trillion.In the aggregate, the two ways these debts can be repaid over time...ECRIWed, 01 Apr 2015 09:02:40 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/to-be-impatient-or-not-to-behttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/to-be-impatient-or-not-to-beIn a move to a reassure the markets, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen recently said that “just because we removed the word ‘patient’ from the statement doesn’t mean we are going to be impatient.” This implied, of course, that the June rate hike many expected is likely to happen later in the year. It also highlighted the question of what could be holding back the Fed from raising rates in J...ECRIMon, 30 Mar 2015 09:09:47 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-ticks-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 131.6 from 131.2. The growth rate increased to -3.2% from -3.6%. For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 27 Mar 2015 10:26:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bahamas-member-meetingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bahamas-member-meetingsECRI will visit the Bahamas on March 24 & 25 for meetings with professional members. ECRITue, 24 Mar 2015 09:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-wli-slipsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 131.1 from 131.6. The growth rate ticked up to -3.7% from -4.0%. For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 20 Mar 2015 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-german-business-expectationshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-german-business-expectationsThe export-dependent German economy has been bolstered by the 25% plunge in the euro in less than a year. In addition, after 2014 GDP growth rose to 1.6%, well above the 2013 pace of just 0.2%, the European Commission upgraded its estimate for 2015 German GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.1%.  German growth forecasts were looking dim only a few months ago, but expectations for the increasingly competit...ECRIMon, 16 Mar 2015 09:11:42 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-risesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.7 from 130.5. The growth rate increased to -4.0% from -4.6%. For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 13 Mar 2015 10:24:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-what-do-shorter-economic-cycles-meanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-what-do-shorter-economic-cycles-meanSince the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years. This shift is in keeping with our yo-yo years thesis, which suggests that developed economies are likely to experien...ECRIFri, 13 Mar 2015 09:08:53 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-virtually-unchangedThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at -4.6%. The growth rate ticked down to -4.6% from -4.5%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 06 Mar 2015 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-future-inflation-guage-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-future-inflation-guage-risesU.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.0 from a revised January 101.9 reading, first reported as 102.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG remains below its summer highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation press...ECRIFri, 06 Mar 2015 10:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-growth-falling-fasterhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wage-growth-falling-fasterYear-over-year nominal average earnings growth was already lackluster, despite the January boost from higher minimum wages. But, wage growth is now falling faster .ECRIFri, 06 Mar 2015 09:44:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australian-home-price-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australian-home-price-prospectsIn early February, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low in an effort to weaken the Australian dollar and to boost growth. While the consensus was surprised by the RBA’s decision to keep rates unchanged this month, it was consistent with recent clues from our Australian indexes. Thus, with regard to Governor Glenn Stevens’ remark that further rate cuts ma...ECRIFri, 06 Mar 2015 09:12:42 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-canada-takes-a-wait-and-see-approachhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-canada-takes-a-wait-and-see-approachAs the Bank of Canada held its latest monetary policy decision meeting this week, ECRI updated its Canadian Future Inflation Gauge , providing valuable insight into pressures on monetary policy in the coming months.The BOC kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its latest meeting, following its surprise 25 basis point rate cut in January, which was its first since the spring of 2009. The...ECRIThu, 05 Mar 2015 17:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uk-long-leading-index-bears-watchinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uk-long-leading-index-bears-watchingWith the major economies experiencing multi-decade declines in long-term trend growth, what lies ahead for the U.K. economy? ECRI has just updated its U.K. Long Leading Index , which was designed to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.In 2014, U.K. GDP growth was the highest since 2007. However, following earlier weakness in UKLLI growth, Q4 growth disap...ECRIWed, 04 Mar 2015 08:57:04 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-end-games-and-end-timeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-end-games-and-end-timesThere has been an extraordinary slide in interest rates across the maturity spectrum that has accelerated to the downside in recent months. For example, German seven-year yields have now dropped below zero for the first time, even with the German jobless rate dropping to a record low. Typical relationships between growth and interest rates have evidently shifted, in part because of structural i...ECRIMon, 02 Mar 2015 09:30:40 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-edges-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 130.6 from 130.4. The growth rate ticked down to -4.5% from -4.2%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 27 Feb 2015 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-its-high-time-to-raise-rates-or-nothttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-its-high-time-to-raise-rates-or-notLast summer, Fed Chair Janet Yellen highlighted real Average Hourly Earnings growth as a key metric to watch, observing that it was “nonexistent.” She contended that, as a result, “[t]here is some room … for real wage gains before we need to worry that that’s creating overall inflationary pressure for the economy.” But, as we had pointed out, because it is swings in inflation that largely drive...ECRIFri, 27 Feb 2015 09:46:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/joc-ecri-industrial-commodities-index-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/joc-ecri-industrial-commodities-index-economic-cycle-researchTwo thousand years ago, the haruspices of ancient Rome peered at animal entrails to divine the future. Today’s seers have refined the technique, searching for clues to the fate of the global economy -- and the modern omens aren’t promising.A gauge of growth rates for raw materials including cattle hides, tallow, plywood and burlap has been signaling economic contraction since September. The las...ECRITue, 24 Feb 2015 08:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-song-remains-the-same-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-song-remains-the-same-1Eleven trillion dollars: that’s how much of so-called Quantitative Easing the world’s central banks have done since the 2008 crisis. To put that in perspective, with eleven trillion dollars you could pay off pretty much all U.S. household debt – all mortgages, all car and student loans, credit cards – you name it. So what did the global economy get for $11,000,000,000,000 in QE?  Following a po...ECRIMon, 23 Feb 2015 11:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-song-remains-the-samehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-song-remains-the-sameEleven trillion dollars: that’s how much of so-called Quantitative Easing the world’s central banks have done since the 2008 crisis. To put that in perspective, with eleven trillion dollars you could pay off pretty much all U.S. household debt – all mortgages, all car and student loans, credit cards – you name it. So what did the global economy get for $11,000,000,000,000 in QE?  Following a po...ECRIMon, 23 Feb 2015 09:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-european-investment-plan-spurs-hope-of-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-european-investment-plan-spurs-hope-of-recoveryGiven the devastating impact persistently weak investment can have on economic growth prospects, the European Commission has made increasing investment one of its main policy priorities. Early this month, the Commission noted that growth prospects “are still limited by a weak investment environment,” its growth having languished since the Global Financial Crisis . Indeed, lackluster investment,...ECRIMon, 23 Feb 2015 08:59:02 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/us-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/us-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 130.3 from 130.0. The growth rate virtually unchanged from the previous week at -4.3%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:ECRIFri, 20 Feb 2015 10:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-conflicting-concernshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-conflicting-concernsThe January Fed minutes released this week were dominated, as usual, by a litany of conflicting concerns. Buried within it, though, was a significant sentence echoing our apprehension that the available policy tools have become unworkable: “The risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were viewed as tilted a little to the downside, reflecting the staff’s assessment that neither monetary policy...ECRIFri, 20 Feb 2015 09:10:32 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-boc-insurance-not-enough-to-boost-manufacturinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-boc-insurance-not-enough-to-boost-manufacturingLast month, the Bank of Canada caught the consensus off-guard, cutting rates as “insurance” – according to BoC Governor Stephen Poloz – against plunging oil prices, which was consistent with our global growth slowdown call. That drop in oil prices has slowed the Canadian economy, with GDP growth declining to a seven-month low in November. Manufacturing, in particular, has been hit hard, as manu...ECRIThu, 19 Feb 2015 08:57:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-for-swedenhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-for-swedenToday ECRI is announcing a new Swedish growth rate cycle trough date, December 2011.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft land...ECRIWed, 18 Feb 2015 15:02:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-slipsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 130.0 from 130.8. The growth rated ticked down to -4.3% from -4.0%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.ECRIFri, 13 Feb 2015 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-outlook-for-business-investment-may-surprise-youhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-outlook-for-business-investment-may-surprise-youWith Fed policy remaining accommodative, the fiscal drag dissipating, and low oil prices propping up consumer spending, optimism abounds that this will be the year that the U.S. economy finally gets back to the heady days of 3% trend growth. However, with global growth slowing amid stagnating global trade, a return to robust growth in the U.S. is far from a certainty. Of particular note is the ...ECRIThu, 12 Feb 2015 09:02:57 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-korean-consumer-spending-prospects-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-korean-consumer-spending-prospects-1In the context of an unfavorable export environment, due to a relatively strong Korean won and stagnant global growth, many are looking to the consumer to drive Korean economic growth. Unfortunately, over the past year, Korean household spending growth has been weaker than many expected, falling to a seven-quarter low in Q4 2014.In this context, we present the relationship between the growth ra...ECRIWed, 11 Feb 2015 09:10:42 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-italian-industrial-growth-fosters-hope-of-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-italian-industrial-growth-fosters-hope-of-recoveryThe Italian economy has long disappointed, struggling to emerge from nearly four years of recession. Indeed, the unemployment rate remains close to a record high, and consumer price inflation has been unable to dispel the threat of deflation, indicative of underlying structural issues that continue to weigh on the economy. Against this bleak backdrop, the consensus was rather upbeat following N...ECRIMon, 09 Feb 2015 09:16:01 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-hourly-earnings-job-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-hourly-earnings-job-growthJob growth has clearly improved, in line with the upturn in the growth rate of ECRI’s U.S. Leading Employment Index. But where are these gains coming from, and what kinds of jobs are being created? After all, with the average household’s purchasing power having already fallen by an eighth between 2004 and 2013, and its real net worth having dropped by 40% since 2007, according to the Fed, real ...ECRIFri, 06 Feb 2015 11:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-fallsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 130.8 from 131.6. The growth rated ticked up to -4.0% from -4.3%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.ECRIFri, 06 Feb 2015 10:29:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-fallsU.S. inflationary pressures were lower in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 102.5 from a revised December 104.0 reading, first reported as 104.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Having peaked in the summer, the USFIG has been falling faster lately," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, und...ECRIFri, 06 Feb 2015 10:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-cycle-and-central-bank-rate-cutshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-cycle-and-central-bank-rate-cutsECRI has just updated its Australian Future Inflation Gauge , the value of which lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical swings in Australian inflation.The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut the official interest rate to a record low of 2.25% this week, joining a growing number of central banks that have eased monetary policy of late. The announcement sent the Australian share market...ECRIThu, 05 Feb 2015 16:43:47 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-secular-stagnation-of-global-tradehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-secular-stagnation-of-global-tradeMore than a decade ago, ECRI wrote about the globalization tsunami resulting from the collapse of the iron curtain and the integration of China and India into the global supply chain. However, following the Global Financial Crisis, trade has not recovered in the way many expected, leading them to wonder whether the weaker trade growth is structural or merely a cyclical phenomenon.To answer the ...ECRIThu, 05 Feb 2015 09:02:14 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-bank-of-korea-rate-cut-imminenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-bank-of-korea-rate-cut-imminentECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index , the value of which lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy.Pressure is mounting for further policy easing in South Korea, after weak government spending, private consumption and exports dragged GDP growth lower in the December quarter, prompting the Bank of Korea to lower its 2015 GDP forecast to 3.4% from 3.9%. Indee...ECRIWed, 04 Feb 2015 08:58:41 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-internal-devaluation-with-a-vengeancehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-internal-devaluation-with-a-vengeanceIn Greece, year-over-Year wage growth grew at a double-digit rate throughout 2002, hitting a high above 17% by year-end . After some gyrations, including a few more forays into double digits, wage growth sank in Q2 2010 into negative territory, where it has since remained. In fact, over the last five years, the wage level in Greece has dived by 18%. This is internal devaluation with a vengeance...ECRIMon, 02 Feb 2015 09:56:08 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-risesThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 131.7 from 130.5. The growth rate ticked up to -4.3% from -5.0%.ECRIFri, 30 Jan 2015 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-war-by-other-meanshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-war-by-other-meansThe plunge in the prices of oil and other industrial commodities since the summer – a symptom of the cyclical downturn in global industrial growth – has been fueling deflation concerns, in the corridors of the ECB and elsewhere. The main point of these competitive devaluations has been to grab larger shares of a shrinking trade pie. This amounts to war by other means.Meanwhile, world trade grow...ECRIFri, 30 Jan 2015 09:07:11 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weaker-us-growth-to-hamper-mexican-remittanceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weaker-us-growth-to-hamper-mexican-remittancesIn 2013, remittances – fund transfers from foreign workers to their home country – from the U.S. to Mexico totaled nearly $22 billion and accounted for almost 2% of Mexico’s GDP. With these flows amounting to at least 5% of foreign income in each year since 2002, Mexico is dependent upon these transfers as a key source of domestic spending. Thus, the current U.S. economic growth outlook offers ...ECRIMon, 26 Jan 2015 08:57:47 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-growth-virtually-unchanged-from-154-wk-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-growth-virtually-unchanged-from-154-wk-lowThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index level declined to 130.5. The growth rate was virtually unchanged from last week's 154-week low at -5.0%, the lowest since January 27, 2012, when it was -5.4%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.ECRIFri, 23 Jan 2015 10:25:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-if-not-now-whenhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-if-not-now-whenIn light of the latest headline numbers, showing 5% GDP growth in Q3 2014, almost 3 million payroll jobs added in 2014, and the December jobless rate dropping to 5.6%, the stage is set for a mid-year-rate hike that many expect, except that wage growth and inflation are still not cooperating. In December, the year-over-year growth of average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory emplo...ECRIFri, 23 Jan 2015 08:52:05 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-weekly-leading-index-virtually-unchangedU.S. Weekly Leading Index level increased to 131.1 from 130.1, the growth rate was virtually unchanged at -5.0%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.ECRIFri, 16 Jan 2015 10:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-phillips-curve-revisitedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-phillips-curve-revisitedThis year has started with a sense of inevitability about it, as a slew of positive data in recent months heightened expectations that the Fed will raise rates mid–year, or soon thereafter. To be sure, the labor market just had its best year since 1999. But while the unemployment rate registered its lowest reading since mid-2008, nominal average hourly earnings growth declined to a 26-month low...ECRIThu, 15 Jan 2015 09:11:03 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-growth-surprisehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-global-growth-surpriseThe two biggest surprises for the markets in 2014 – falling oil prices and international bond yields – are completely consistent with ECRI’s cyclical call on global growth, and its prescient call on secular shifts in developed economies. Furthermore, when made, those forecasts were diametrically opposed to the consensus view. On the cyclical front, by the early summer of 2014, with crude oil pr...ECRITue, 13 Jan 2015 09:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-weekly-leading-index-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-weekly-leading-index-slipsThe U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped from 130.8 to 130.7, a 64-week low and the lowest since October 11, 2013, when it was 130.1. Its growth rate decreased from -3.9% to a 152-week low of -4.4%, the lowest since February 3, 2012, when it was -4.4%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.ECRIFri, 09 Jan 2015 12:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/2-year-lows-for-average-hourly-earnings-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/2-year-lows-for-average-hourly-earnings-growthAverage hourly earnings growth dropped to a two-year low for "all workers" as well as "production and nonsupervisory workers," the worst reading for both since the fall of 2012.ECRIFri, 09 Jan 2015 11:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-downU.S. inflationary pressures were lower in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 104.1 from a revised November 104.5 reading, first reported as 104.7, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG has eased from its summer high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures ...ECRIFri, 09 Jan 2015 10:09:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-england-keeps-rates-on-hold-how-longhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-england-keeps-rates-on-hold-how-longECRI has just updated its U.K. Future Inflation Gauge , which has a good track-record of anticipating cyclical swings in U.K. inflation.U.K. consumers were gifted an early Christmas present in November when headline consumer price inflation slipped to its lowest reading in 12 years. However, despite the apparent boost to household spending, low inflation has been met with concern among some inv...ECRIThu, 08 Jan 2015 14:55:10 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-outlook-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-outlook-for-japanSince January 2013, the month after Shinzo Abe became prime minister, Japan finally exited from deflation and enjoyed a cyclical economic recovery. That recovery was popularly credited to Abenomics, with many believing that it had worked, and would continue to do so. However, most were unaware that ECRI’s Japanese cyclical leading indexes had signaled an end to deflation and an economic recover...ECRIThu, 08 Jan 2015 09:18:55 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-research-fed-secular-stagnation-zirphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-research-fed-secular-stagnation-zirpOver six years ago, even before the Lehman Brothers failure, ECRI showed how U.S. trend growth had been stair-stepping down in successive expansions since the 1970s. A key implication of that longstanding decline in trend growth was that cyclical slowdowns were increasingly likely to become recessions.Fed Chairman Janet Yellen seems to agree our view. Answering a question from the IMF’s Christi...ECRIWed, 07 Jan 2015 19:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-india-overtakes-china-with-brighter-outlook-to-start-2015http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-india-overtakes-china-with-brighter-outlook-to-start-2015ECRI has updated the Indian Long Leading Index , which has a good record of anticipating cyclical turns before conventional leading indexes. This includes the March 2011 to September 2012 growth rate cycle downturn that caught many by surprise. The latest INLLI reading provides insight into the current optimism surrounding India’s economic prospects that stands in contrast to the consensus view...ECRIFri, 02 Jan 2015 09:17:18 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-altered-perceptionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-altered-perceptionsThis year’s two biggest surprises for the markets – falling international bond yields and oil prices – are completely consistent with ECRI’s prescient call on secular shifts in developed economies, and its cyclical calls on global growth. Furthermore, when made, those forecasts were diametrically opposed to the consensus view. On the cyclical front, by the early summer of 2014, with crude oil p...ECRITue, 30 Dec 2014 09:01:42 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-italian-export-growth-may-surprise-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-italian-export-growth-may-surprise-furtherItalian GDP contracted in Q3 2014, as the Italian economy remained mired in a nearly-four-year recession. In fact, Italian real GDP growth has contracted in 12 of the last 13 quarters. But growth in exports, which account for roughly 30% of GDP, has actually been in a cyclical upturn since early 2013, and remains near the seven-quarter high seen in Q2 2014. So, will export growth improve furthe...ECRIMon, 29 Dec 2014 08:59:52 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2015-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-2015-outlookECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan speaks with David Shuster about the latest improvements in U.S. GDP and jobs data. Looking at year-over-year growth rates, which can give a clearer picture, in Q3 the U.S. accelerated to 2.7% growth, which is indeed better, but likely near the higher end of what is possible in coming years. In fact, already a few times since the Great Recession we’ve had year-over-year ...ECRIWed, 24 Dec 2014 09:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-al-jazeera-ali-velshi-lakshman-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-al-jazeera-ali-velshi-lakshman-achuthanECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Ali Velshi on Al Jazeera America tonight at 7:00 PM . ECRITue, 23 Dec 2014 10:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-demand-canadian-goods-slowshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-demand-canadian-goods-slowsThe Bank of Canada has noted that a strengthening U.S. economy “has benefited Canada’s exports,” as the economy has shown “signs of a broadening recovery.” However, with growth in U.S. goods imports from Canada recently falling to a six-month low, will exports hamper the Canadian recovery?ECRI’s latest analysis of our specialized leading indexes addresses this question, clarifying whether growt...ECRITue, 23 Dec 2014 09:14:07 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-german-retail-sales-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-german-retail-sales-growth-prospectsConcerns have mounted about Europe’s largest economy, Germany, as recent data have failed to impress, prompting the Bundesbank to slash its forecast for German growth next year to 1%. However, German retail sales rebounded stronger than expected in their latest reading, following September’s slump, leading some to think that this weakness was just an anomaly. ECRI’s has just updated its German ...ECRIMon, 22 Dec 2014 09:03:30 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-oil-inflation-swing-shifthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-oil-inflation-swing-shiftWhat is driving the drop in oil, and how patient can the Fed be as it ponders the dive in long-term inflation “compensation?”These key questions are intertwined with the fact that the average household’s real net worth has dropped by 40% since 2007, while its purchasing power has fallen by an eighth between 2004 and 2013. Understandably, making ends meet has been a struggle for many Americans. ...ECRIFri, 19 Dec 2014 08:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-indian-export-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-indian-export-growth-prospectsA little over a year ago, the mood in India was deeply pessimistic. Economic growth had been underperforming for years and inflation, especially for essential food items, was at worrisome levels. This was the situation when Raghuram Rajan took over as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India in September of 2013, following which the economic reform-minded Narendra Modi became India’s new Prime Min...ECRIThu, 18 Dec 2014 16:15:59 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-cyclical-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-cyclical-prospectsThe U.K. economy has enjoyed healthy growth since 2013, with both GDP and the job market steadily improving, after succumbing to two recessions since the Global Financial Crisis. We correctly forecast the current cyclical upswing in late 2012, using ECRI’s array of specialized U.K. leading indexes. Today the consensus view is that the U.K. economic outlook is still robust, remaining one of the ...ECRIWed, 17 Dec 2014 09:10:57 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-less-bouncy-ballhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-less-bouncy-ballSince the end of the Great Recession, each year has started in familiar fashion. Overly optimistic expectations that the U.S. economy would soon reach “escape velocity” abound, based on the false premise that a vigorous revival is a given following deep recessions.Describing the prevailing view on the global economic outlook from Davos last January, Ken Rogoff observed, “People are euphoric her...ECRIMon, 15 Dec 2014 10:21:54 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-australian-commodity-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-australian-commodity-exportsLast month, Australia and China signed a trade agreement that would open the Chinese market to Australian farm and service-sector exports. This marks an important step towards diversifying away from commodity exports, which currently account for the majority of Australia’s exports, not only to China but overall.The ongoing decline in commodity prices does not bode well for Australian exports. H...ECRIThu, 11 Dec 2014 09:31:36 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-business-cycle-date-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-business-cycle-date-japanToday ECRI is announcing a new Japanese business cycle peak date of March 2014. There were also over a half-dozen growth rate cycle dates announced, including growth rate cycle dates for China.Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Be...ECRIThu, 11 Dec 2014 09:05:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-full-interview-on-the-ecri-approachhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-full-interview-on-the-ecri-approachLakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's approach, our Japan recession call, the Yo-Yo-Years, when the business cycle doesn't work, and more, in an uncut interview .Please follow this link to watch the exclusive interview with Raoul Pal, founder of the online finance channel Real Vision TV.ECRIFri, 05 Dec 2014 09:41:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slipsU.S. inflationary pressures were lower in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 104.7 from a revised October 105.7 reading, first reported as 105.9, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While dipping in its latest reading, the USFIG remains near its summer high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thu...ECRIFri, 05 Dec 2014 09:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-future-inflation-eurohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-future-inflation-euroEuro zone inflation may fall further in the coming months, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to act, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, fell to 97.2 in October from 97.6."With the EZFIG slipping in its latest reading, underlying inflation pressures, which had been ...ECRIFri, 05 Dec 2014 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-rba-cut-rates-after-a-year-of-no-changehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-rba-cut-rates-after-a-year-of-no-changeEarlier this week, as widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at a record low of 2.5% in an effort to spur the struggling economy. This means 2014 was the first full calendar year in ten years in which the RBA did not change its rates. Moreover, Australian CPI growth fell to a nine-quarter low in Q3 2014, leaving the consensus to wonder if rates will soon be cut to a ...ECRIThu, 04 Dec 2014 17:01:38 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uneven-iinternational-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uneven-iinternational-growth-prospectsAs we monitor international growth prospects through our array of leading indexes for 21 major economies it is clear that 2015 will be a better year for some than others. However, even though there is growing acceptance of ECRI’s 2008 observation of a substantial slowdown in long-term secular trend growth, plenty of denial remains. In their efforts to attain “escape velocity,” central bankers a...ECRIMon, 01 Dec 2014 09:01:03 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-expectations-no-longer-well-anchoredhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-expectations-no-longer-well-anchoredMarket-and survey-based inflation expectations data increasingly contradict the Fed’s stance – underlined in the latest Fed minutes – that medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remain “well anchored.” In fact, those inflation expectations have not been this low since the depths of the Great Recession.ECRI’s latest study reviews these issues in detail, providing insight into what the re...ECRIMon, 24 Nov 2014 08:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-global-slowdown-and-japanese-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-interview-on-global-slowdown-and-japanese-recessionAli Velshi and Lakshman Achuthan discuss the global slowdown and Japanese recession.ECRIWed, 19 Nov 2014 09:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-exports-revive-slowing-mexican-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-exports-revive-slowing-mexican-recoveryExports provided much of the boost that kick-started the current Mexican recovery, but it has lost some steam, and economists surveyed by the Bank of Mexico recently trimmed growth forecasts for this year and the next. Still, year-over-year growth in real exports has risen to a two-year high. So, can exports keep this recovery going?ECRI’s latest analysis, including the Mexican Leading Exports ...ECRITue, 18 Nov 2014 08:45:25 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cycle-indicators-showed-ahead-of-japan-latest-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cycle-indicators-showed-ahead-of-japan-latest-recessionThere is a strong suggestion that Japan’s slide into a fresh recession came as a surprise.But Japan's slide into its fourth recession since 2008 should not have been a surprise. Rather it was clearly telegraphed by our cyclical indicators, as chronicled below.  Sep. 2013: In a BBC feature story on the cyclical upturn in Japan we said, “[i]t’s unclear how long it will last beyond a few quarters....ECRIMon, 17 Nov 2014 10:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-commodity-prices-distorted-by-external-factors-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-commodity-prices-distorted-by-external-factors-1The recent drop in industrial commodity prices created unease in the markets, sounding alarms over a global growth slowdown that we warned of four months ago. While there is a confluence of factors causing the weakness in industrial commodity prices, exogenous causes may have introduced significant distortions.Our Journal of Commerce-ECRI Industrial Price Index can be separated into exchange-tr...ECRIThu, 13 Nov 2014 08:47:10 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uk-economic-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-uk-economic-growth-prospectsTwo months ago, significant revisions to the U.K.’s national accounts by the Office for National Statistics upgraded Q2 2014 GDP growth, prompting analysts to claim that there was “less slack in the economy than previously thought.” Additionally, Q3 2014 GDP grew 3% year-over-year. However, the widely watched U.K. Economic Sentiment Indicator slipped in October to a seven-month low, slightly of...ECRIWed, 12 Nov 2014 09:05:51 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-rises-1U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 105.9 from a revised September 104.8 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG approaching its summer highs, notwithstanding the recent plunge in inflation expectations, underlying inflation pressures continue to simmer," ECRI Chief Ope...ECRIFri, 07 Nov 2014 09:53:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-higherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-higherEuro zone inflation will probably bottom out in the coming months, suggesting the European Central Bank may be successful in its battle to ward off deflation, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 97.5 in September. The August number was revised down to 97.1 from 97.7."W...ECRIFri, 07 Nov 2014 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-kuroda-shock-and-awe-tacticshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-kuroda-shock-and-awe-tacticsECRI has just updated its Japan Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Japanese inflation.Amid mounting signs that current policy prescriptions are failing, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sent an early holiday cheer through global markets last week when he announced that more trillions would be pumped into Japan’...ECRIThu, 06 Nov 2014 16:26:12 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-life-after-death-of-qehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-life-after-death-of-qeWith an end to the Fed’s quantitative easing, the key questions are when and how fast they will raise rates. The latest FOMC minutes only increased the uncertainty surrounding the timing of rate increases, with members expressing more concern about the effect on the U.S. economy of the global slowdown first flagged by ECRI in the summer. It is clear that Chairman Yellen has positioned the Fed s...ECRIThu, 06 Nov 2014 08:49:49 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-agony-and-the-ecstasyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-agony-and-the-ecstasyFed Chairman Janet Yellen is concerned about “nonexistent” real wage growth following the decline in real median family incomes by one-eighth between 2004 and 2013. How does this fit with the pickup in GDP and job growth? The Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Andrew Haldane, recently unveiled two indexes, akin to the misery indexes of yore, that shed some light on this question. The “ecstasy i...ECRIWed, 05 Nov 2014 13:17:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/yellen-let-them-eat-cake-retire-incomehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/yellen-let-them-eat-cake-retire-incomeAccording to the Fed's triennial Survey of Consumer Finances, the top 10% of U.S. families are doing just fine, and those in the bottom fifth are essentially being kept afloat by transfer payments; but the inflation-adjusted median family income has shrunk by one-eighth since 2004. Quite simply, middle-class incomes are being gutted.[C]iting that same survey, Ms. Yellen expressed concern about ...ECRITue, 04 Nov 2014 16:56:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-date-for-japanToday ECRI is announcing a new Japanese growth rate cycle peak date, March 2014.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings...ECRITue, 04 Nov 2014 10:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-specter-is-haunting-europehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-specter-is-haunting-europeA pair of unsettling realities is now dawning on the markets: First, that all the major developed economies are facing their own “lost decades;” and secondly, that Abenomics is failing, implying that there may be no exit from such long-term structural conditions.Even the supposedly-prescient bond market was slow to reflect Japan’s entry into the lost decades beforehand. Not until 17 years ago, ...ECRIFri, 31 Oct 2014 08:55:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-markets-pricing-in-more-fed-rate-hike-delayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-markets-pricing-in-more-fed-rate-hike-delayWhile financial markets have settled down following the turbulence of last week, market expectations of inflation and the timing of the Fed rate hike have shifted dramatically. Indeed, since July, inflation expectations for one year and five years from now have dropped sharply, with both falling below the Fed’s 2% target – consistent with the structural “lowflation” that is a natural consequenc...ECRIFri, 24 Oct 2014 08:23:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/yellen-let-them-eat-cake-retire-incomehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/yellen-let-them-eat-cake-retire-incomeAccording to the Fed's triennial Survey of Consumer Finances, the top 10% of U.S. families are doing just fine, and those in the bottom fifth are essentially being kept afloat by transfer payments; but the inflation-adjusted median family income has shrunk by one-eighth since 2004. Quite simply, middle-class incomes are being gutted.[C]iting that same survey, Ms. Yellen expressed concern about ...ECRIFri, 17 Oct 2014 14:09:53 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-early-warning-of-global-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-early-warning-of-global-slowdownIn July 2014, ECRI’s International Cyclical Outlook reported “signs of spreading weakness in overall economic growth.” The early warning was based on our Long Leading Index of Global Growth , which was already “hovering near its worst levels since 2011” . The LLIGG subsumes ECRI’s individual long leading indexes for 20 economies that are designed to be mutually comparable across countries, maki...ECRITue, 14 Oct 2014 13:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-industrial-production-confirms-recession-track-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-industrial-production-confirms-recession-track-1While the latest decline in Japanese industrial production growth disappointed the consensus, it was anticipated by an earlier cyclical downturn in the growth rate of our Japanese Leading Manufacturing Index . More importantly, it confirms our earlier prediction that Japan is on track for its fourth recession since 2008. Accordingly, over the last quarter century, Japanese industrial production...ECRIMon, 06 Oct 2014 08:58:41 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-jobs-report-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-jobs-report-the-fedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC this afternoon to discuss the jobs data and how it may be recieved by the Fed as they consider next steps.ECRIFri, 03 Oct 2014 16:21:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slips-to-105-0-in-septemberhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-slips-to-105-0-in-septemberU.S. inflationary pressures were lower in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 105.0 from a downwardly revised August 105.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRIFri, 03 Oct 2014 09:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-cnbc-interview-lakshman-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-cnbc-interview-lakshman-achuthanECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNBC's around 3:10 PM to discuss today's jobs report and the cyclical outlook. ECRIFri, 03 Oct 2014 09:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-inflation-pressures-29-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-inflation-pressures-29-month-high Eurozone inflation pressures hit a 29-month high, suggesting the European Central Bank's slew of policy easing measures might stave off deflation, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 97.7 in August from 97.5 in July."With the EZFIG increasing again in August, it point...ECRIFri, 03 Oct 2014 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-losing-steamhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-losing-steamECRI has just updated its Japan Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Japanese inflation.In a further blow to Abenomics, Japanese headline inflation declined again in its latest reading, heaping more pressure on Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda as he grapples with the ongoing threat of deflation and lackluster eco...ECRIThu, 02 Oct 2014 15:57:20 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-convenient-smokescreenhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-a-convenient-smokescreenFor years the Fed has used the jobless rate and inflation as the key metrics for guiding Fed policy. But with the unemployment rate falling faster than Fed forecasts year after year – partly due to slower-than-expected labor force growth – other criteria have entered the picture.Erstwhile Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was well-known for his deliberately opaque utterances, and is reported to have ...ECRIThu, 02 Oct 2014 12:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australia-facing-economic-challengeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australia-facing-economic-challengesWith a 23-year expansion under its belt, Australia has done well, but its luck may have run out. Its unemployment rate is hovering near a 12-year high and inflation is at the upper end of the range set by the Reserve Bank of Australia . In addition, the China’s slowing growth is sapping a major driver of the Australian economy – exports. Under the circumstances, a key question is whether the Au...ECRIThu, 02 Oct 2014 08:51:32 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-crosscurrents-in-global-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-crosscurrents-in-global-growthThe year began with broad optimism. Abenomics appeared to be working, the U.S. was set to “take-off,” and European prospects appeared to be taking a turn for the better. As ECRI correctly anticipated a couple of months ago, however, a global growth slowdown is at hand.  In this context, our latest report examines one of the most pressing issues facing the global economy – China’s growth prospec...ECRITue, 30 Sep 2014 09:16:28 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-echoes-of-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-echoes-of-japanIn 2011 the Fed published a study aimed at identifying “particular values for output growth and other variables, such that when these values are reached during an expansion, the economy has tended to move into a recession within a fairly short time span.” The study concluded that Gross Domestic Income – which, while income-based, is theoretically identical to GDP – “provides a better measure of...ECRIMon, 22 Sep 2014 14:28:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-what-the-fed-watches-that-may-impact-the-timing-of-rate-hikeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-what-the-fed-watches-that-may-impact-the-timing-of-rate-hikesThe Fed will conclude the QE taper next month and start a rate hike cycle next year. Some say this is long overdue, yet Chairman Yellen seems to be in no rush to raise rates.Our report delves into this new chapter in monetary policy, including various metrics that the Fed has indicated will influence the timing and pace of the rate hike cycle.At the same time, a separate GDI-related “stall spee...ECRIMon, 22 Sep 2014 08:55:47 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researchweekly-leading-index-growth-declineshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researchweekly-leading-index-growth-declinesThe Economic Cycle Research Institute's leading U.S. index fell 0.6 point to 134.2 in the week ended Sept. 5. That's the lowest reading since late March. The 4-week annualized growth rate edged down to 1.7%, the 7th straight weekly decline and the slowest pace this year.ECRIFri, 12 Sep 2014 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-failing-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-failing-1Wall Street Journal Live talks with ECRI about how Japan is on track for another recession, and what that means for Europe and the U.S.Read ECRI article on Abenomics Failing. ECRIWed, 10 Sep 2014 10:51:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-failinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-failingWatch Wall Street Journal interview.Recently at Jackson Hole, ECB President Mario Draghi announced his own version of the “three arrows” of Abenomics, declaring that the Eurozone needs “a policy mix that combines monetary, fiscal and structural measures at the union level and at the national level.” In effect, he is recognizing that the Eurozone economy is “becoming Japan,” and calling for Japa...ECRIWed, 10 Sep 2014 09:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-home-price-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-home-price-prospectsBack in March 2013, ECRI correctly forecast a home price growth downturn based on the growth rate of our U.S. Leading Home Price Index . Only of late has this been realized by the mainstream, with year-over-year growth in the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index falling to a 19-month low and new home sales falling for the second consecutive month. Looking ahead, has the outlook reversed c...ECRITue, 09 Sep 2014 08:47:43 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-german-job-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-german-job-prospectsGermany, often hailed as Europe’s growth locomotive, suffered an unexpected contraction in Q2 2014, as GDP fell 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, year-over-year German employment growth slipped in its latest reading, while staying near April’s 16-month high. Is the recent data an ominous sign?ECRI’s latest update to the German Leading Employment Index provides insight into changing job m...ECRIMon, 08 Sep 2014 08:46:57 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-index-growth-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-index-growth-downECRI's leading economic index rose 0.1 point in the Aug. 29 week to 134.9. The 4-week annualized growth rate declined to 1.8% from 2.3%.ECRIFri, 05 Sep 2014 13:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-research-ecri-future-inflation-gauge-remains-at-71-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-research-ecri-future-inflation-gauge-remains-at-71-month-highU.S. inflationary pressures were flat in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained 106.9 from the unrevised July 106.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG almost at a six-year high, underlying inflation pressures have clearly risen since last fall," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.ECRIFri, 05 Sep 2014 09:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflationary-pressures-hit-28-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflationary-pressures-hit-28-month-high Inflation pressures in the euro zone have risen to a 28-month high, suggesting prices may rise faster than in recent months, an indicator designed to forecast cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 97.4 in July from 96.6 in June."With the EZFIG climbing further in its latest reading, euro zone inflation...ECRIFri, 05 Sep 2014 04:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australia-s-dilemma-growth-or-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australia-s-dilemma-growth-or-inflationECRI has just updated its Australian Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Australian inflation.Against the background of weaker Chinese economic growth, a mining-induced economic slowdown, federal budget cuts, a strong Australian dollar, and an unemployment rate that hit a 12-year high in July, the Reserve Bank of Aust...ECRIThu, 04 Sep 2014 16:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-brazilhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-brazilToday ECRI is announcing two new Brazilian growth rate cycle dates, a trough in January 2012 and a peak in October 2012.Click here for free access to the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft...ECRIThu, 04 Sep 2014 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brazil-s-economic-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-brazil-s-economic-outlookECRI has been pessimistic about the Brazilian economy since the beginning of the year, well before the World Cup. Now, as investments have fallen, driving a second quarter contraction of GDP, the consensus outlook has come around to agree. But the question today is whether the coming quarters will see any improvement.In this context, ECRI’s Brazilian Long Leading Index, which correctly anticipa...ECRIThu, 04 Sep 2014 09:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fear-of-wages-is-deadhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-fear-of-wages-is-deadA keystone of current market complacency is the growing conviction that, with wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner or faster than expected. Yet, so much depends on just how far behind the inflation curve the Fed will find itself.In this regard, ECRI has a fundamentally divergent view, with very different implications for the management of cyclical risk. Our perspective is ba...ECRIFri, 29 Aug 2014 10:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researchweekly-leading-index-growth-easeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-researchweekly-leading-index-growth-easesECRI's leading U.S. index rose 0.5 point to 134.8 in the week ended Aug. 22. The 4-week annualized growth rate decelerated for a fifth straight week, to 2.3%. That's the weakest since early March.ECRIFri, 29 Aug 2014 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-the-sun-set-early-in-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-the-sun-set-early-in-japanThe prevailing wisdom is that Abenomics is working to help the Japanese economy escape its lost decades. In sharp contrast, ECRI research comes to very different conclusions. Our study also has important implications for other G7 nations following policies similar to those in Japan in order to spur stronger long-term growth.Following the launch of Abenomics, which aimed to pull the economy out ...ECRIFri, 29 Aug 2014 06:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-draghinomics-to-the-rescuehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-draghinomics-to-the-rescueWith Eurozone inflation close to a five-year low in July, and GDP coming to a standstill in the second quarter, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced his intentions last week to employ a policy mix of monetary, fiscal, and structural measures to boost the slumping Eurozone – similar to Abenomics’ “three arrows.”But with the “success” of Abenomics due more to its implementation ...ECRIThu, 28 Aug 2014 09:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-eases-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-eases-1ECRI's leading U.S. index was unchanged at 134.3 in the week that ended Aug. 15. The 4-week annualized growth rate decelerated to 2.8%, a 5-month low.ECRIFri, 22 Aug 2014 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japanese-inflation-trajectory-in-questionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japanese-inflation-trajectory-in-questionIn June, two months after the sales tax hike, Japanese consumer price inflation began to slip. So far, this is in line with the scenario presented by the Bank of Japan , which expected inflation to ease before firming later as a tight labor market pushed up wages. But how likely is that to happen?ECRI’s Japanese Future Inflation Gauge, designed to anticipate cyclical swings in Japanese inflatio...ECRIFri, 22 Aug 2014 08:44:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rate-debate-intensifieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-rate-debate-intensifiesAt the Jackson Hole meeting this week, Chairman Yellen, speaking about labor markets, is widely expected to further justify the Fed’s dovish stance regarding rate hikes. It is no secret that she has serious concerns about the “underutilization of labor resources” – an issue we have emphasized for years. Meanwhile, 4% GDP growth in the second quarter has cheered the consensus that firmly believe...ECRIThu, 21 Aug 2014 08:42:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-korea-rate-cut-may-boost-consumer-debt-more-than-gdphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bank-of-korea-rate-cut-may-boost-consumer-debt-more-than-gdpECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.With GDP growth slowing to just 0.6% in the second quarter, the Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate last week in an effort to encourage growth by lowering borrowing costs. This comes just a month after the Kor...ECRIWed, 20 Aug 2014 08:43:29 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-house-of-cardshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-house-of-cardsWith home price inflation and real earnings in decline, the U.S. consumer is in no position to be an effective engine of growth. ECRI’s U.S. Leading Home Price Index predicted a home price growth downturn in March 2013 , flagging the “worsening home price growth outlook” right before real home price growth turned down in April 2013. With a renewed plunge in housing affordability to almost its l...ECRIMon, 18 Aug 2014 09:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-easeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-weekly-leading-index-growth-easesThe ECRI's leading U.S. index rose 0.3 points to 135.8 in the week ended Aug. 1. The ECRI added that 4-week annualized growth cooled to 3.8%, the lowest in nearly 4 months, from 4.1% in the prior week and a recent peak of 5.3% in the May 23 week.ECRISat, 09 Aug 2014 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-mexican-recovery-linked-to-us-industrial-sectorhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-mexican-recovery-linked-to-us-industrial-sectorLast month, citing export demand as a major driver, the Bank of Mexico noted signs of recovery in the Mexican economy, following the earlier improvement in ECRI’s Mexican Long Leading Index. Mexico is a heavily export-dependent economy, with the U.S. demanding 70% of its exports. Since a large share of Mexican exports are industrial products used in the U.S. manufacturing process, an analysis o...ECRIFri, 08 Aug 2014 08:50:14 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-global-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-shifting-global-growth-prospectsThe year began with great hopes for the global economy. Kenneth Rogoff captured the mood of global decision makers in Davos saying: “People are euphoric here, they think everything is going to be fantastic.” These expectations were dampened a bit when the U.S. economy recorded negative GDP growth in the first quarter, with Chinese industrial growth also slacking off. Now, with both improving in...ECRIWed, 06 Aug 2014 09:08:21 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-australiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-australiaToday ECRI is announcing new Australian growth rate cycle dates, a peak in May 2012 and a trough in June 2013.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are follow...ECRIMon, 04 Aug 2014 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-to-71-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-to-71-month-highU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 106.9 from the unrevised June 105.5 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG rising further to a 71-month high, underlying inflation pressures are clearly ratcheting up," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.ECRIFri, 01 Aug 2014 11:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-zone-inflationary-pressures-hit-27-month-highhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-zone-inflationary-pressures-hit-27-month-highInflationary pressures in the euro zone have risen to a 27-month high, suggesting the European Central Bank's efforts to fend off deflation are working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 96.7 in June from April's 96.2."The EZFIG rose further in June to a 27-month hig...ECRIFri, 01 Aug 2014 09:18:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-the-eurozone-veer-away-from-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-can-the-eurozone-veer-away-from-deflationECRI has just updated its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Eurozone inflation.While European Central Bank governor Mario Draghi has deemed sub-1% inflation a “danger zone” that puts the Eurozone at risk of a deflationary spiral, the ECB’s efforts to date have been unable to stem disinflation deep into that...ECRIThu, 31 Jul 2014 17:00:57 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-manufacturing-renaissancehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-manufacturing-renaissanceIn the early years of this century, the media bemoaned the death of American manufacturing, as emerging China and its abundant labor force made production in America uncompetitive. However, in recent years, the narrative has shifted, with China’s labor cost advantage gradually eroding and the shale gas revolution promising lower U.S. energy costs for the foreseeable future. Many expect companie...ECRIThu, 31 Jul 2014 09:06:44 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-timing-of-fed-rate-hikeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-timing-of-fed-rate-hikesThe current market complacency is founded largely on the growing conviction that, with U.S. wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner than expected. Indeed, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen recently allayed rate hike concerns, noting that real wage gains have been “nonexistent.”ECRI’s latest study investigates whether Ms. Yellen’s suggestion – that stronger real wage growth is a prerequ...ECRIMon, 28 Jul 2014 09:16:08 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-has-the-chinese-economy-bottomedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-has-the-chinese-economy-bottomedChinese GDP grew by 7.5% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. This performance was in line with ECRI’s earlier forecast of modest firming in Chinese growth. But is a sigh of relief warranted for the world’s second largest economy, or premature?ECRI’s latest update to the Chinese Long Leading Index provides insight into the trajectory of th...ECRIMon, 21 Jul 2014 09:10:37 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institution-ecri-japanese-capital-investment-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-institution-ecri-japanese-capital-investment-prospectsJapan’s GDP grew more in the first quarter than previously thought on stronger investment growth. This probably raised the Bank of Japan’s confidence that, following the April sales tax hike, which likely crimped consumption spending, GDP growth will remain firm as investment growth compensates for the drop off in consumer spending growth.In search of evidence to support or contradict this scen...ECRIWed, 16 Jul 2014 08:54:53 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-job-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-job-growth-outlookMany have been celebrating the strength in the U.K. labor market that we correctly predicted last fall, with a rise in employment pushing the jobless rate to its lowest reading in over five years. Unsurprisingly, consumers’ fears of job loss are low, while, separately, a survey of U.K. employers revealed that employers in 11 out of 12 U.K. regions expect to hire more staff over the next three m...ECRIFri, 11 Jul 2014 08:46:23 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-consumer-spending-outlook-for-brazilhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-consumer-spending-outlook-for-brazilBrazil recorded only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 2014, disappointing consensus expectations, but in line with our earlier assessment. Some are looking to the consumer as a catalyst for economic growth, hoping that their hosting of the World Cup will provide a much-needed boost to their economy since over half a million tourists are expected to visit. However, with consumer confiden...ECRIThu, 10 Jul 2014 09:00:34 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-managing-volatility-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-managing-volatility-riskFalling volatility in stock prices and other international assets has many investors feeling uneasy, as memories of low volatility on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis engender a sense of déjà vu. With various volatility measures nearing pre-GFC or even record lows, there is increasing concern that the widespread declines in asset price volatility are disconnected from underlying economic ...ECRIMon, 07 Jul 2014 09:03:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gaugehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gaugeECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge rose again in June. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle."With the USFIG trending up and hitting a 70-month high in June, underlying inflation pressures have risen further."ECRIThu, 03 Jul 2014 13:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-to-104-7-in-mayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-inflation-gauge-rises-to-104-7-in-mayU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from the revised March 104.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The April reading was initially reported as 104.7."With the USFIG reaching a 13-month high, underlying inflation pressures have begun to build," ECRI Chief Operations Officer L...ECRIThu, 03 Jul 2014 10:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-euro-zone-future-inflation-pressures-ez-fighttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-euro-zone-future-inflation-pressures-ez-fig Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have reached a 25-month high, suggesting the European Central Bank's loose monetary policy may fend off deflation, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 95.3 in May from 94.0 in April."Euro zone inflation ticked up in the latest reading," s...ECRIThu, 03 Jul 2014 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-boe-reverse-course-with-uk-inflation-below-targethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-boe-reverse-course-with-uk-inflation-below-targetECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.For the fifth consecutive month, U.K. inflation has been below the Bank of England’s 2% target rate, dropping to 1.5% in May, a four-and-a-half-year low. According to the consensus, the timing of Easter this year was likely to ...ECRIWed, 02 Jul 2014 17:08:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-sensitive-stabilityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-sensitive-stabilityWith the markets turning unusually listless, volatility in assets and commodities remain low, even despite burgeoning geopolitical fissures. Market stability aside, nagging fears remain of a looming “black swan” event.ECRI’s latest report provides insights into the validity of those fears from a cyclical vantage point, describing how risks are oriented in this low-volatility environment, and wh...ECRIFri, 27 Jun 2014 08:46:31 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-benign-inflation-persisthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-will-benign-inflation-persistBelatedly, the consensus has recognized the structural “lowflation” underway in most developed economies, including the U.S. – which we have been warning of for some time in the context of “the yo-yo years.” The now-keen awareness of this phenomenon, along with the Fed’s assurances that rates will be kept low, may be partly responsible for the tame behavior of inflation expectations, which have...ECRIWed, 25 Jun 2014 10:38:09 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-warming-up-or-stalling-outhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-warming-up-or-stalling-outAs the year began, ECRI warned of weak growth prospects, especially for the construction and housing sectors, which had been key drivers of economic growth. Indeed, with the Fed’s “stall speed” measure, based on gross domestic income growth, falling to 0.1% in the first quarter – never having dropped this low except around recessions –U.S. economic growth stood far below the 2% “stall speed” th...ECRIThu, 19 Jun 2014 08:51:21 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australian-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-australian-home-price-outlookEarlier this month, the International Monetary Fund reported that Australian home prices are amongst the most expensive in the world, according to two widely watched measures of housing prices. Around that time, the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index showed monthly home prices falling by 1.9% in May. While RP Data attributed this decline in part to seasonality, they also mentioned the possibility...ECRITue, 17 Jun 2014 08:58:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-are-the-boes-housing-fears-overblownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-are-the-boes-housing-fears-overblownFollowing a dramatic downturn, U.K. real home prices have risen substantially, as correctly anticipated by ECRI’s U.K. Leading Home Price Index . Accordingly, British homeowners are optimistic about further increases in the value of their homes. However, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has cited the housing market as the biggest domestic risk to the economy, with rising prices forcing buye...ECRIFri, 13 Jun 2014 08:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-consumer-credit-growth-jumps-as-savings-rate-dwindleshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-consumer-credit-growth-jumps-as-savings-rate-dwindlesIn April, consumer credit growth increased at its fastest pace in nearly three years, bolstering the consensus view of a rebounding consumer. However, year-over-year growth in revolving credit – largely credit card spending – remains far below its historical average of 11% in the quarter century preceding the Great Recession. Furthermore, with the personal savings rate near its lowest rate sinc...ECRIThu, 12 Jun 2014 09:11:32 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-risesU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from the revised March 104.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The April reading was initially reported as 104.7."With the USFIG reaching a 13-month high, underlying inflation pressures have begun to build," ECRI Chief Operations Officer L...ECRIFri, 06 Jun 2014 10:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-research-institute-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-austriahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-research-institute-ecri-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-austriaToday ECRI is announcing a new Austrian growth rate cycle trough date, Feb. 2013.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in eco...ECRIFri, 06 Jun 2014 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bok-s-inflation-expectations-set-to-miss-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-bok-s-inflation-expectations-set-to-miss-againECRI has just updated its Korean Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Korean inflation.While Korea’s May inflation rate grew at its fastest pace in 19 months, it still remains far below the Bank of Korea’s target band of 2.5-3.5%. However, the BoK expects inflation to pick up in the second half and breach the lower bou...ECRIFri, 06 Jun 2014 09:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-deflation-ecb-interest-rates-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-deflation-ecb-interest-rates-japanInflation pressures have edged up in the euro zone but remain muted, according to an indicator published a day after interest rate cuts and other monetary easing by the European Central Bank.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 93.3 in April from 92.9 in March."The EZFIG increased further in April, but remained well below its earlier ...ECRIFri, 06 Jun 2014 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-europe-s-core-the-german-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-europe-s-core-the-german-cyclical-outlookGermany’s economy is the largest in Europe so its business cycle swings carry great weight. Its GDP grew by 0.8 percent in Q1 2014, doubling its pace from the previous quarter and making it the strongest showing in three years. However, German unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time since November 2013, and the Ifo Business Climate Index fell more than expected in May to a five-month ...ECRIThu, 05 Jun 2014 08:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-gold-a-cyclical-perspectivehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-gold-a-cyclical-perspectiveAlmost six years after the Global Financial Crisis triggered unprecedented monetary easing worldwide, inflation fears are petering out, as concerns over “lowflation” and persistent stagnation take hold. As such, the allure of gold as an inflation hedge has dulled, with its price in a downward trend since 2011 and remaining more than 30% below 2011’s high. With recent indications that central ba...ECRITue, 03 Jun 2014 09:02:01 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cognitive-dissonance-at-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cognitive-dissonance-at-the-fedFederal Open Market Committee members have long submitted their projections of U.S. real GDP growth for the “longer run,” to which they expect it “to converge over time – maybe in five or six years – in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy.” The chart shows the midpoint of their projections has dropped to 2.15% – a cut of almost half a percentage point since early...ECRIFri, 30 May 2014 16:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-upThe Economic Cycle Research Institute index rose 0.3 point to 135.4 in the May 24 week. The 4-week annualized growth rate rose to 5.3% from 5%. That's the best in nearly a year.ECRIFri, 30 May 2014 15:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-accurate-forecasthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-accurate-forecastFreely download the report, including charts, by clicking here.Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.Over five and a half years ago, before the Lehman Brothers failure, we argued that U.S. trend growth had been stair-stepping down in successive exp...ECRIFri, 30 May 2014 11:07:03 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-accurate-forecasthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-an-accurate-forecastOver five and a half years ago, before the Lehman Brothers failure, we argued that U.S. trend growth had been stair-stepping down in successive expansions since the 1970s. A key implication is that cyclical downturns in growth would have more chance of becoming recessions.We now have confirmation that this has already happened, and there is little reason to believe it is over. ECRI's April 2014...ECRIFri, 30 May 2014 11:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-style-artificial-stimulushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-japan-style-artificial-stimulus The US seems caught in a Japan-style trap, endlessly masking the effect by stealing a little extra growth from the future with artificial stimulus.The US economy contracted sharply in the first quarter and bond yields have been falling at the fastest rate since the recession scare two years ago, in signs that bond tapering by the Federal Reserve is biting more than anticipated.The slowdown com...ECRIFri, 30 May 2014 08:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reality-biteshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-reality-bitesAgainst the “yo-yo years” backdrop of slowing trend growth across most major economies, cyclical downturns in growth are likely to prove especially hazardous to those who refuse to recognize the reality that the global economy is not about to take off, as many had hoped when the year began. Our objective international economic indexes tell us where we stand in various international growth and i...ECRIThu, 29 May 2014 08:53:26 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-industrial-production-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-s-industrial-production-prospectsFollowing the March rebound in industrial production, April’s decline surprised the consensus. Optimism had grown in part because the Purchasing Managers Indexes from both the Institute for Supply Management and Markit were pointing toward further expansion.While those indexes remained upbeat in their latest readings, in light of the divergence between their rise and the April decline in indust...ECRIWed, 28 May 2014 08:49:13 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-fallsGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to accelerate.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 5% in the week ended May 16, from 4.9% the prior week.The index itself inched down to 135.1 from 136.3. The April ECRI index growth rate is 4.1% from 2.9% in March.ECRIFri, 23 May 2014 10:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-consumer-spending-business-investmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-prospects-for-consumer-spending-business-investmentThe consensus remains steadfast in its belief that the U.S. economy will take off this year, achieving annual GDP growth as high as 3% despite first quarter growth coming in a full percentage point below estimates. While Q1 was a major disappointment, Q2 growth estimates near or above 4% are commonplace, based largely on a seemingly strong showing from consumers in the first quarter and a conti...ECRIFri, 23 May 2014 09:04:01 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-burying-the-ledehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-burying-the-ledeWhat is being gradually acknowledged – without any publicity or fanfare – is that long-term U.S. GDP trend growth, already estimated at around 2% to 2¼%, is converging towards its 2% stall speed. If so, almost every time GDP growth experiences a slowdown that carries it below trend, it will also fall below the recessionary stall speed.In this context, a strategy of “pulling demand forward” make...ECRIWed, 21 May 2014 14:28:29 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-big-mysteryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-the-big-mysteryThe slide in treasury yields has been the great “mystery” this year, confounding a consensus that had been convinced they would be well on their way up. After all, as Ken Rogoff described the prevailing view of the great and the good from Davos in January, “People are euphoric here, they think everything is going to be fantastic.” Various explanations, ranging from the trite to the complicated,...ECRIWed, 21 May 2014 08:35:18 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-nature-of-taiwan-s-investment-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-cyclical-nature-of-taiwan-s-investment-growthIn the final quarter of 2013, Taiwanese GDP growth was driven in large part by a jump in the growth rate of gross capital formation – a measure of investment growth – which surged to its highest reading in more than three years. Unfortunately, given that Taiwan is extremely export oriented, investment growth experiences similar cyclical behavior to export growth, making it quite volatile and im...ECRIMon, 19 May 2014 09:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-u-k-cyclical-outlookIs the U.K. economy picking up pace toward a more “normal” growth rate? ECRI has just updated its U.K. Long Leading Index , which provides the answer. The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in economic growth before conventional leading indexes.GDP expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014, and its year-over-year growth rose by 3.1%, the fastest in over six...ECRIThu, 15 May 2014 09:33:31 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-lakshman-achuthanBelow is Business Insider's exclusive Q&A with Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. BUSINESS INSIDER: What's everyone getting wrong about the state of the economy right now?LAKSHMAN ACHUTHAN: By second-half 2013, GDP growth was clearly picking up, but key ECRI leading indexes were weakening, pointing to decelerating growth, well before the weather began to...ECRIFri, 09 May 2014 09:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-home-price-cycle-clarifiedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-home-price-cycle-clarifiedOver a year ago, based on a cyclical downturn in the growth rate of our U.S. Leading Home Price Index , we concluded that real home price growth prospects had dimmed, and therefore, real home price growth would moderate in the months ahead. In contrast, only in recent months has this prospect dawned on the consensus, along with the realization that, given the slowing pace of home price growth, ...ECRIThu, 08 May 2014 08:57:03 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-retail-sales-shifting-essentialshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-retail-sales-shifting-essentialsGrowth in retail sales jumped to 3.8% in March, leading the optimistic consensus to trumpet the return of the consumer. While some snap-back in growth was inevitable, as purchases delayed by the harsh winter weather came through, is this jump in growth truly representative of a recovering consumer?ECRI’s latest analysis helps answer this question by examining how consumers are allocating purcha...ECRIWed, 07 May 2014 08:59:28 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-business-cycle-dates-for-france-and-spainhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-business-cycle-dates-for-france-and-spainECRI has determined new business cycle peak and trough dates for France, as well as a business cycle trough date for Spain.Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECR...ECRITue, 06 May 2014 15:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-future-inflation-gauge-gainshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-future-inflation-gauge-gainsU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.7 from the revised March 103.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The March reading was initially reported as 103.1."With the USFIG ticking up to a one-year high, underlying inflation pressures are starting to simmer," ECRI Chief Operations...ECRIFri, 02 May 2014 09:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-future-inflation-deflation-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-future-inflation-deflation-1Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have increased marginally but remain subdued, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 93.0 in March from 92.8."Although the EZFIG rose in March, it is not far from its earlier lows. As such, euro zone inflation pressures, while ...ECRIFri, 02 May 2014 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-inflation-disappoints-pressure-on-ecb-growshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-eurozone-inflation-disappoints-pressure-on-ecb-growsConsensus hopes for a strong rebound in Eurozone inflation were dashed this week with inflation growing less than expected, despite a boost from the Easter holiday. On the heels of the disappointing data, the European Central Bank faces increased pressure to cut rates, and even enact quantitative easing, in an effort to stave off deflation. With the ECB expected to delay a rate cut decision unt...ECRIThu, 01 May 2014 16:51:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-earnings-growth-upturn-masks-labor-market-weaknesshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-earnings-growth-upturn-masks-labor-market-weaknessEarnings growth has risen for an unwelcome reason – because growth in hours has fallen faster than pay growth. As bad as that is for income growth, it is also not a credible signal of an inflation upturn.Given the ongoing taper, the Fed, like most other observers, remains optimistic about economic prospects. In turn, a number of economists are focusing on “bullish” indicators of employment and ...ECRIThu, 01 May 2014 11:31:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-is-the-us-heading-toward-a-deeper-downturnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-is-the-us-heading-toward-a-deeper-downturnThe economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. Co-Founder and COO of the Economic Cycle Research Institute Lakshman Achuthan discusses with WSJ Live.ECRIThu, 01 May 2014 10:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-failure-to-launch-gdphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-failure-to-launch-gdpThe year began with an overwhelming consensus: that the economy was "taking off" and would soon reach "escape velocity." We disagreed.So, we said in January on CNBC, "What's bothersome is that right now the consensus is that we are 'taking off,' we are approaching 'escape velocity' ... We just don't see that when we're looking at the data... in the forward-looking indicators, in the coincident ...ECRIWed, 30 Apr 2014 12:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-accurate-forecasthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-accurate-forecastIn August 2008, before the Lehman Brothers collapse, we showed that growth in U.S. GDP and jobs had already been stair-stepping down in successive expansions. We went on to anticipate the advent of an era of more frequent recessions in most developed economies, concluding that the frequency of business cycle recessions was likely to increase, relative to expectations. Five years later, we have ...ECRIWed, 30 Apr 2014 09:18:24 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-complacency-vs-cassandrahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-complacency-vs-cassandraLast year ended with soaring hopes, as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields surged above 3% to a two-and-a-half-year high, buoyed by a near-unanimous view that they would climb even further this year. Yet, nearly four months later, with those yields a third of a percentage point lower, of the 72 economists recently polled by the National Association for Business Economics, not one expected a recession ...ECRIMon, 28 Apr 2014 09:52:55 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-complacency-vs-cassandrahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-complacency-vs-cassandraLast year ended with soaring hopes, as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields surged above 3% to a two-and-a-half-year high, buoyed by a near-unanimous view that they would climb even further this year. Yet, nearly four months later, with those yields a third of a percentage point lower, of the 72 economists recently polled by the National Association for Business Economics, not one expected a recession ...ECRIMon, 28 Apr 2014 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/weekly-leading-index-ecri-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/weekly-leading-index-ecri-fallsGrowth in The U.S. Weekly Leading Index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity picked up last week, rising to 4.1% in the week ended April 18, from 3.9% in the previous week.The index itself decreased to 134.6 from 134.9.Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.ECRIFri, 25 Apr 2014 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-earnings-growth-and-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-earnings-growth-and-inflationGiven the ongoing taper, the Fed, like most other observers, remains optimistic about economic prospects. Accordingly, a number of economists are focusing on “bullish” indicators of employment and inflation, particularly growth in average hourly earnings , which has been rising since late 2012. In theory, this strengthening suggests that there is less slack in the labor market and wage growth i...ECRIThu, 24 Apr 2014 09:35:17 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-deceptive-factshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-deceptive-factsThe recent pop in economic data has reassured the consensus that the economy has recovered from its bad-weather stumble and is back on track to attain “escape velocity,” and the Fed’s QE tapering seems to confirm this confident outlook. But is this a case where, as Sherlock Holmes observed, “there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact?” In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth a...ECRITue, 22 Apr 2014 08:56:08 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/weekly-leading-index-unchanged-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/weekly-leading-index-unchanged-5Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up steam.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.9% in the week ended April 11, up from 3.3% in the previous week.The index itself was flat at 134.9. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is deriv...ECRIThu, 17 Apr 2014 10:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-corporate-credit-conditionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-corporate-credit-conditionsUnderstandably, following years of monetary accommodation, by Q4 2013 U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt had risen to a record high. Yet, digging beneath the “record high” headline, we see that nonfinancial corporate debt growth actually fell in Q4 to its lowest reading in over a year. Is this indicative of even more weakness ahead, or just a temporary slip?ECRI’s latest report updates its leadin...ECRIMon, 14 Apr 2014 08:55:36 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-up-1Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity picked up last week.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.3% in the week ended April 4, from 3.0% in the previous week.The index itself increased to 134.9 from 133.5.ECRI said "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter i...ECRIFri, 11 Apr 2014 13:39:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-bahamas-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-bahamas-presentationLakshman Achuthan will visit the Bahamas on April 10 & 11 for meetings with professional members. ECRIThu, 10 Apr 2014 09:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-french-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-french-cyclical-outlookIs recent data suggesting that a recovery is taking hold in the Eurozone's second-biggest economy? ECRI has just updated its French Long Leading Index , which provides the answer. The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.France's manufacturing sector returned to growth last month even more strongly than expected,...ECRIWed, 09 Apr 2014 09:14:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-manufacturing-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-manufacturing-outlookRecently, Eurozone industrial production missed consensus expectations, declining by 0.2% in January. Meanwhile, its year-over-year growth rate edged up, while staying below November’s 27-month high. Is the recent dip merely a one-off, or a sign of a new cyclical downturn in the Eurozone industrial sector?ECRI has just updated its Eurozone Leading Manufacturing Index , designed to anticipate cy...ECRITue, 08 Apr 2014 09:32:32 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-us-future-inflation-gauge-dipsU.S. inflationary pressures were lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 103.1 from the revised February 104.4 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The February reading was initially reported as 104.1."With the dip in the USFIG pushing it further below its earlier highs, underlying inflation pressures remain restrained,...ECRIFri, 04 Apr 2014 09:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-future-inflation-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-future-inflation-deflationInflationary pressures have increased slightly in the euro zone but remain muted, likely doing little to allay fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 92.2 in February from 91.9 in January."Although the EZFIG rose in February, it sta...ECRIFri, 04 Apr 2014 03:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-unchangedGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity was little changed in the latest week.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.0% in the week ended March 28, compared with 2.9% in the previous week.The index itself was unchanged at 133.6. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions...ECRIFri, 04 Apr 2014 03:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-gets-ecb-and-spanish-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-gets-ecb-and-spanish-deflationIn March, Spain slipped into deflation, according to flash estimates recently released by the Spanish statistical agency, leading many to voice fears of Spanish deflation “metastasizing” to the rest of the Eurozone. With some clamoring for the European Central Bank to ease policy in response, the outlook for Spanish consumer price growth has clear implications for ECB policy in the months ahead...ECRIThu, 03 Apr 2014 16:24:15 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-consumer-spending-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-consumer-spending-outlookIn February, Japanese consumer spending growth dropped, in part because of snowstorms that battered the country. However, with consumers subsequently stocking up ahead of the April sales tax hike, it is likely that consumer spending growth bounced back in March.With the tax hike now implemented, it is important to determine what will happen to consumer spending growth not only in April, but in ...ECRIThu, 03 Apr 2014 09:02:13 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-cycle-peak-for-russiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-cycle-peak-for-russiaToday ECRI is announcing a new Russian growth rate cycle peak in December 2011.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in econ...ECRIThu, 03 Apr 2014 08:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-gets-tts-yo-yo-yearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-gets-tts-yo-yo-yearsIn July 2012, ECRI correctly forecast a slowdown in Russian industrial growth, which has contributed to its cyclical weakness ever since. More recently, the Russian economy has been thrust into turmoil due to the ramifications of its moves to annex Crimea. Russian stock prices have swung widely and the ruble has also vacillated, as the uncertainty around the Russian economy persists. In this co...ECRIMon, 31 Mar 2014 09:03:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-down-1Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity has strengthened further.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.9% in the week ended March 21, up from 2.3% in the previous week. Growth is now at its highest since early February.The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growt...ECRIFri, 28 Mar 2014 10:48:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-service-sector-outlook-clarifiedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-service-sector-outlook-clarifiedIn early March the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index fell to a four-year low in February, which was largely blamed on the harsh winter weather. Accordingly, the latest release of the Markit Flash U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index showed that service sector activity picked up in March. However, Markit’s chief economist tempered the optimism when he noted, “the surve...ECRIFri, 28 Mar 2014 09:10:12 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-extrapolative-exuberancehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-extrapolative-exuberanceBlithely extending recent trends, a comfortable consensus is still betting that this is the year the world’s advanced economies will finally see a synchronized surge in growth. But are major shifts in cyclical risks in the offing – aside from potential geopolitical shocks – that are being underestimated at this juncture?ECRI’s latest update to its international outlook, which correctly called u...ECRIThu, 27 Mar 2014 09:01:04 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-when-divining-economic-trends-look-beyond-weatherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-when-divining-economic-trends-look-beyond-weatherWhile the consensus expected housing to help drive the U.S. economy to faster growth, last week’s existing home sales data did not support those hopes. In fact, existing homes sales contracted for the sixth time in seven months, but the recent weakness – like most disappointing data of late – has been blamed on the weather. Once the economy is free of the negative effects of weather, will housi...ECRIMon, 24 Mar 2014 09:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticks-downGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is gaining strength.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.3% in the week ended March 14, up from 2.1% in the previous week. The upturn follows a sharp slowdown in growth during late January and February.The index itself, however, fell to 132.9 from 133.6. ECRI says occasion...ECRIFri, 21 Mar 2014 10:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-running-on-emptyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-running-on-emptyAt the turn of the New Year we disagreed with the consensus and made the point that U.S. economic growth was not about to take off. Since then, most economic data has disappointed expectations, with harsh winter weather serving as the excuse. Indeed, many economists still see growth picking up soon and the economy attaining “escape velocity” in short order. Are their optimistic expectations war...ECRIThu, 20 Mar 2014 09:01:15 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australian-exports-to-china-defy-chinese-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australian-exports-to-china-defy-chinese-slowdownStoking slowdown fears, Chinese exports plunged 18% in February, but imports grew 10% in both January and February – handily beating consensus expectations. With Chinese raw materials imports recently reaching record highs, Australia, a major raw materials exporter to China, appears better positioned than many expected. Can Chinese demand for Australian exports continue to evade the Chinese slo...ECRITue, 18 Mar 2014 09:03:58 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-cyclical-outlookECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.The Japanese economy grew less than widely expected at the end of last year, with economic growth figures revised downward, missing forecasts of higher spending ahead of the sales tax increase set to take effect in Ap...ECRIMon, 17 Mar 2014 09:23:58 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-edges-upGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity strengthened further last week.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.3% in the week March 7, up from 1.8% in the previous week. The upturn follows a sharp slowdown in growth during late January and February.The index itself increased to 133.8 from 133.5. ECRI says "occasion...ECRIFri, 14 Mar 2014 10:51:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-price-signals-of-global-slackhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-price-signals-of-global-slackSome key economies, including the U.S., have been enjoying increased export growth by certain measures. Yet, as discussed in ECRI’s U.S. Cyclical Outlook in January, “the U.S. is able to boost exports only by cutting prices, because exporters simply lack pricing power.”In fact, year-over-year growth in world trade prices remains in a cyclical downturn, and dropped deeper into negative territory...ECRIFri, 14 Mar 2014 09:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-what-lies-ahead-for-uk-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-what-lies-ahead-for-uk-inflationIn its latest release, U.K. inflation dropped below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in four years. Many hope that low inflation might allow real wages to rebound, as during the past few years of high inflation, stagnant wage growth meant a decline in living standards for many. Is this optimism well-founded?ECRI’s latest analysis juxtaposes ECRI’s U.K. Future Inflation Gauge w...ECRIThu, 13 Mar 2014 08:52:48 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-prospects-for-brazilian-and-canadian-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-prospects-for-brazilian-and-canadian-exportsWhile Canada and Brazil differ in many significant ways, both are major primary-product exporters, reliant on global demand to support their trade-dependent resource industries. Their major trading partners differ too, with Canada trading more with the U.S. and Brazil exporting more to China, but there are collective attributes that make it possible to jointly assess exports growth prospects fo...ECRIWed, 12 Mar 2014 08:49:19 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-chinahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-chinaToday ECRI is announcing new Chinese growth rate cycle dates, a trough in Dec. 2010, and a peak in Feb. 2012.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are follow...ECRIFri, 07 Mar 2014 11:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-upGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity picked up last week.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 1.9% in the week ended Feb. 28, up slightly from 1.7% in the previous week.The index itself increased to 133.5 from 131.9."Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter...ECRIFri, 07 Mar 2014 10:38:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-1U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.1 from the revised January 102.1 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The January reading was initially reported as 101.4."Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achutha...ECRIFri, 07 Mar 2014 09:47:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-deflationInflationary pressures rose a tad in the euro zone around the start of the year but remain low, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 92.3 in January from December's 91.7.Published a day after the European Central Bank left rates on hold despite inflation being well belo...ECRIFri, 07 Mar 2014 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecb-dismisses-french-disinflation-worrieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecb-dismisses-french-disinflation-worriesECRI has just updated its French Future Inflation Gauge , which has remained subdued for some time now. The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in French inflation.In January, French consumer prices fell from the month before, missing expectations for annual growth – rising just 0.8% – despite boosts from a January increase in the value-added tax an...ECRIThu, 06 Mar 2014 17:14:50 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-risks-for-the-chinese-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-risks-for-the-chinese-economyChinese economic developments have kept the markets on edge, as a cash crunch in December drove up short-term rates, followed in January and February by a plunge in the purchasing managers index for manufacturing. More recently, the Chinese yuan has weakened amid ongoing worries about the shadow banking situation. Given China’s growing economic might as the world’s largest exporter, and soon-to...ECRIThu, 06 Mar 2014 09:01:26 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-home-price-outlook-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-home-price-outlook-1Last week saw seemingly good and bad news for the U.S. housing market. While sales of new homes exceeded even the highest estimates, year-over-year growth in the widely followed Case-Shiller Index ticked down in December from November’s multi-year high. Unfortunately, as coincident measures of housing market activity, neither provides information about housing market prospects. Instead, it is i...ECRIWed, 05 Mar 2014 08:55:55 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-consumer-under-pressurehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-consumer-under-pressureLast week, U.S. retail chains posted their first quarterly decline in profits since the Great Recession. Although many attribute this weakness to an unseasonably cold winter season, it comes on the heels of disappointing data releases for jobs, retail sales and industrial production. Is the drop in retail chain profits merely a one-off, or is it indicative of an increasingly tapped-out consumer...ECRITue, 04 Mar 2014 09:08:12 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-throttling-back-in-tandemhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-throttling-back-in-tandemThe central banks of the world’s two largest economies are reducing monetary policy accommodation under the presumption that growth will not stall out, even though bad things have often happened when the Fed has tightened before. Indeed, a recent fund manager survey finds that – as on the cusp of the Great Recession – only about 1% think the U.S. is in recession. In essence, the overwhelming ma...ECRIMon, 03 Mar 2014 09:37:40 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticking-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-ticking-downGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 1.7% in the week ended Feb. 21, down from 2.5% in the previous week. Growth is now at its weakest since last week of 2013.The index itself fell to 131.8 from 132.2. ECRI said that "occasionally the WLI level and growth...ECRIFri, 28 Feb 2014 10:54:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-growth-getting-stronger-or-weaker-as-the-fed-tapershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-growth-getting-stronger-or-weaker-as-the-fed-tapersAs of late January, the Fed stayed committed to dismantling their economic stimulus campaign. Their rationale for keeping the taper on track was an expectation that fiscal and monetary policies, combined with businesses and consumers as well as overseas demand, would all play their parts in helping buoy economic growth. One Fed president went as far as to say “that even a third consecutive mont...ECRIMon, 24 Feb 2014 09:01:08 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-growth-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-wli-growth-slipsGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew just 2.5% in the week ended Feb. 14, down from 3.2% growth the previous week. It was the third straight week in which the growth rate slowed.The index itself was unchanged at 132.2. ECRI says that "occasionally the WLI...ECRIFri, 21 Feb 2014 10:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-what-does-china-s-trade-data-mean-for-the-korean-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-what-does-china-s-trade-data-mean-for-the-korean-economyECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.The export-oriented Korean economy has seen some modest improvement since late 2012, with year-over-year GDP growth reaching an 11-quarter high in its latest reading and yoy real export growth also hovering near Q2 2013...ECRITue, 18 Feb 2014 09:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-dropsGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity took a steep step down last week.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.3% in the week ended Feb. 7, down from 4.2% in the previous week.The index itself fell to 132.2 from 133.2."Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter...ECRIFri, 14 Feb 2014 10:48:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-industrial-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-industrial-outlookLast week, U.K. industrial production data surprised the consensus, with year-over-year growth declining for the second straight month after showing modest improvement since mid-2012. Is the recent data merely noise, or a sign of a cyclical downturn to come in the U.K. industrial sector?ECRI has just updated its U.K. Leading Manufacturing Index , designed to anticipate cyclical swings in U.K. i...ECRIThu, 13 Feb 2014 09:06:32 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-germany-france-italy-spainhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-growth-rate-cycle-dates-for-germany-france-italy-spainToday ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle trough dates for Germany , France , Italy and Spain .Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a r...ECRIWed, 12 Feb 2014 12:27:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-failure-to-launchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-failure-to-launchThe year 2014 began with a clear consensus that the economy was "taking off" and would soon reach "escape velocity." We disagreed.So, we said in January on CNBC: “What’s bothersome is that right now the consensus is that we are 'taking off,' we are approaching ‘escape velocity’ ... We just don’t see that when we’re looking at the data... in the forward-looking indicators, in the coincident data...ECRISat, 08 Feb 2014 14:26:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-slipsGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity remains positive in early 2014, and the monthly rate more than doubled.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 4.2% in the week ended Jan. 31, from 4.3% in the previous week.The index itself fell to 133.2 from 133.7."Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in differ...ECRIFri, 07 Feb 2014 10:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-up-2U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.4 from the December 100.7 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG stands well below its earlier highs, and is still close to October's 22-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, "Thus,...ECRIFri, 07 Feb 2014 09:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation Inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain in a downtrend, likely adding to fears about deflation in the 18-nation bloc, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged down to 91.7 in December from November's 92.0."While the EZFIG had increased since the summer, it slipped in its lates...ECRIFri, 07 Feb 2014 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-will-rising-inflation-keep-rba-rate-cuts-on-holdhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-will-rising-inflation-keep-rba-rate-cuts-on-holdECRI has just updated its Australian Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Australian inflation.The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a new period of stability in its interest rates after inflation closed out 2013 at a two-year high of 2.7%, putting an end to  two years of rate cuts intended to stimulate the economy. ...ECRIThu, 06 Feb 2014 15:02:14 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mexican-remittances-say-about-u-s-construction-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mexican-remittances-say-about-u-s-construction-jobsMexican remittances, accounting for around two percent of Mexican GDP, provide an important insight into income, spending, and employment for Mexican families and migrant workers. Yet, an additional benefit of understanding cycles in Mexican remittance growth is what they say about the U.S. construction industry in particular, in terms of near-term job prospects. ECRI’s latest report presents t...ECRIThu, 06 Feb 2014 08:59:33 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-industrial-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-industrial-prospectsWhile month-to-month Japanese industrial production growth returned to positive territory in December, it again missed consensus expectations. Moreover, with its year-over-year growth rate ticking down to a two-month low following five months of increases, it raises the question whether Japanese industrial production growth is running out of steam.In this context, it is important to review the ...ECRITue, 04 Feb 2014 09:07:37 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-steadyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-steadyGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to trend upward in early 2014. According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 4.3% in the week ended January 24, up from 4.2% growth in the previous week. The index itself was unchanged at 133.8. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different dir...ECRIFri, 31 Jan 2014 14:14:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-eurozone-deflation-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-eurozone-deflation-risksRemaining “uncomfortably” low, year-over-year growth in the Eurozone harmonized CPI now stands at 0.7%, well below the European Central Bank’s 2% target. ECRI’s research has, for some time now, highlighted the risk that major economies like the U.S. and the Eurozone, which are experiencing low trend growth and falling inflation, will resemble Japan during its lost decades. Although the consensu...ECRIFri, 31 Jan 2014 08:49:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-great-expectationshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-great-expectationsCapturing the giddiness among the great and the good in Davos, Kenneth Rogoff observed last week, “People are euphoric here, they think everything is going to be fantastic.” That might be the view of the movers and shakers gathered on a mountaintop to discuss economic inequality – effectively the main topic on the agenda – but it is not a perspective we share. Our latest study includes a review...ECRIWed, 29 Jan 2014 08:47:16 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-down-3Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up strength after weakening throughout December.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 4.2% in the week ended Jan. 17, after rising 3.5% in the previous week, which was up from 2.3% in the week before that.The index itself, however, fell to 133.9 from 134.3 in the p...ECRIFri, 24 Jan 2014 10:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-construction-sector-key-to-overall-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-construction-sector-key-to-overall-growthMany believe the construction sector will be a major driver of U.S. economic growth in 2014, with non-residential construction in particular expected to catch up to a booming residential sector. Given the strength with which construction sector data are closing out 2013 – namely, 122,000 jobs added in the past year, residential building permits near a 64-month high, and construction spending at...ECRIFri, 24 Jan 2014 08:57:57 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-spanish-economic-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-spanish-economic-growth-prospectsECRI has just updated its Spanish Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.In May of 2013, with Spanish GDP growth still negative, ECRI made an accurate forecast of a growth rate cycle upturn for the Spanish economy, followed in short order by a business cycle upturn call. Then, following nin...ECRIThu, 23 Jan 2014 09:00:54 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-american-exceptionalismhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-american-exceptionalismFor the fifth straight year, expectations are running high that this time around the U.S. economy will take off and reach “escape velocity.” The prevailing belief is that, while the Eurozone may be flirting with chronically weak growth and deflation danger, America faces no such threats. And even if most other major developed economies may be “becoming Japan,” that cannot possibly hold for the ...ECRIWed, 22 Jan 2014 10:03:20 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-fox-interview-adult-conversationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-fox-interview-adult-conversationECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses why we think the epicenter of recession was the half-year spanning Q4/12 - Q1/13, and why ECRI's long-standing concerns about "secular stagnation" -- that the U.S. is "becoming Japan" -- needs a more serious conversation.ECRIWed, 22 Jan 2014 08:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-12Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity showed a burst of momentum last week after weakening throughout December.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.7% in the week ended Jan. 10, up from 2.5% in the prior week and the strongest rate since late September.The index itself increased to 134.5 from 133.4 in the prev...ECRIFri, 17 Jan 2014 11:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-canadian-home-price-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-canadian-home-price-prospectsThe Canadian housing market has seen increasing prices over the last year, to the extent that some analysts fear the market may be too strong. The latest city data also show surging prices, but recent prints for national prices and building activity indicated some weakening. Where are home prices actually heading?ECRI’s latest report provides a clear outlook for Canadian real home prices, indic...ECRIThu, 16 Jan 2014 09:40:53 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-nassau-bahamas-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-nassau-bahamas-presentationLakshman Achuthan will visit Nassau on Jan. 16 & 17 for meetings with professional members. ECRIThu, 16 Jan 2014 08:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-interview-secularhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-interview-secularECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN to discuss the cyclical outlook. See link to video below.ECRIWed, 15 Jan 2014 16:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/nassau-bahamas-professional-member-meetings-ecrihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/nassau-bahamas-professional-member-meetings-ecriECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRITue, 14 Jan 2014 09:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-job-growth-not-trending-higherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-job-growth-not-trending-higherGiven the consensus that U.S. growth is about to “take off” and reach “escape velocity,” many would just ignore the December payroll jobs data, expecting it to be revised away. Yet, in the preceding 12 months the economy created 194,000 payroll jobs per month according to the establishment survey, but only 101,000 jobs per month according to the household survey, i.e., over a million fewer jobs...ECRITue, 14 Jan 2014 06:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-recovery-eludes-19-million-unemployedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-recovery-eludes-19-million-unemployedWhile the Eurozone is finally showing signs of recovery, unemployment lags behind. In November, the unemployment rate was unchanged from its record high for the eighth consecutive month. Thus, this remains a jobless recovery, but as the recovery continues, there is hope that jobs will follow.ECRI’s latest analysis examines the Eurozone’s unemployment rate outlook, providing insight into whether...ECRIMon, 13 Jan 2014 08:55:30 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-risesGrowth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity gathered strength last week.According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.5% in the week ended Jan. 3, from 1.9% in the prior week.The index itself increased to 133.4 from 133.0 in the previous week. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different direct...ECRIFri, 10 Jan 2014 11:05:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-risesU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.7 from the revised November 100.4 reading, originally reported 100.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains near October's 22-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in ...ECRIFri, 10 Jan 2014 09:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-ecbhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-ecbEurozone inflation will remain muted in the coming months as inflationary pressures are hovering near August's 44-month low, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 91.1 in November from October's 90.4."Although the EZFIG has increased for three consecutive months, it rema...ECRIFri, 10 Jan 2014 08:46:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-as-u-k-inflation-nears-boe-target-upward-pressures-emergehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-as-u-k-inflation-nears-boe-target-upward-pressures-emergeECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.In November, the U.K. inflation rate fell to a four-year low of 2.1%, approaching the Bank of England’s 2% target last achieved in late 2009. However, with several major energy producers instituting price increases in December,...ECRIThu, 09 Jan 2014 14:29:46 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-s-cyclical-outlook-and-abenomicshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-s-cyclical-outlook-and-abenomicsThree months ago, based on its forward-looking Japanese Long Leading Index , ECRI recognized a new Japanese growth rate cycle downturn that was underway. Sure enough, in December, not only did the third quarter GDP revisions disappoint the consensus, but the Japanese government also predicted that GDP growth would slow to 1.4% in 2014 from 2.6% in 2013. This confirmation of ECRI’s outlook came ...ECRIMon, 06 Jan 2014 09:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-11A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its strongest since April 2010, while the annualized growth rate stayed steady, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index increased to 132.9 in the week ended Dec. 27 from 131.9 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate ...ECRIFri, 03 Jan 2014 10:33:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-export-prospects-for-key-asian-economieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-export-prospects-for-key-asian-economiesOver the last four decades, the major Asian economies have undergone massive transformations, changing from relatively underdeveloped and economically isolated economies into highly export-oriented ones. Their export prowess has been a key source of economic prosperity, but it also has made them more susceptible to the cyclical ups and downs of the global economy. In addition, the development o...ECRIThu, 02 Jan 2014 09:02:10 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-liquid-couragehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-liquid-courageAfter five years without catastrophe, consensus expectations for economic growth in 2014 are optimistic, particularly for the major economies. With such a sanguine backdrop, one foregone conclusion in the mainstream is likely to be a continued decline in monetary stimulus after a “mission accomplished.” This would also imply that inflation and unemployment are generally under control around the...ECRIMon, 30 Dec 2013 09:01:38 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-slipsA measure of future U.S. economic growth increased last week while the annualized growth rate slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.9 in the week ended Dec. 20 from 130.9 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate decreased to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent ...ECRIFri, 27 Dec 2013 10:37:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-german-confidence-measures-and-the-cyclical-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-german-confidence-measures-and-the-cyclical-outlookECRI has recently updated its broad-based German Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.With the German Ifo Business Climate Index improving to a 20-month high in December, analysts are convinced a Germany recovery remains on track. While German managers are more optimistic and the Bundesba...ECRITue, 24 Dec 2013 13:58:52 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-after-end-of-french-recession-gdp-goes-negativehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-after-end-of-french-recession-gdp-goes-negativeThe French economy continues to struggle as third quarter GDP growth dropped back into negative territory just a few months after the nation’s finance minister proclaimed the end of the French recession based on a single quarter of positive GDP growth. Additionally, in line with weaker GDP, growth in French exports, which represent more than a quarter of GDP, went negative in the third quarter ...ECRITue, 24 Dec 2013 09:15:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-plagues-the-fedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-plagues-the-fedWith inflation not only holding below the Fed’s target for the past year and a half, but also falling recently to a four-year low despite a declining jobless rate, it is perhaps no surprise that low inflation was repeatedly invoked as a concern by Fed Chairman Bernanke at his final press conference last week. Inflation, or more specifically, its virtual absence, is not only a critical indicatio...ECRIMon, 23 Dec 2013 09:26:06 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-6A measure of future U.S. economic growth decreased last week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index eased to 130.9 in the week ended Dec. 13 from a revised 131.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 131.4.The index's annualize...ECRIFri, 20 Dec 2013 10:31:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-a-dove-shaped-taperhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-a-dove-shaped-taperFive years after it began a series of QE campaigns, the Fed announced a modest pullback in its asset purchases earlier this week. Stock markets cheered the news, with most economists apparently agreeing with the Fed’s view that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. But is there really a fundamental improvement in economic activity?In this context, ECRI has just completed an in-dept...ECRIFri, 20 Dec 2013 09:06:51 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-london-member-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-london-member-presentationOn December 15, 16 and 17 ECRI principals will be visiting London to meet with professional members.ECRITue, 17 Dec 2013 07:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-drops-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-drops-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower last week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.4 in the week ended Dec. 6 from a revised 132.7 the previous week, which originally had been reported as 132.8.The index's ann...ECRIFri, 13 Dec 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-inflation-us-eurozone-japan-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-inflation-us-eurozone-japan-1The European Central Bank cut rates last month following a "surprise" drop in Harmonized CPI inflation to 0.7% in October. But a head-to-head comparison on the same metric shows that U.S. inflation was actually lower, having dropped to just 0.6% in October.What many still fail to acknowledge is that the major Western economies – including the U.S. – are effectively becoming Japan: the comfortab...ECRIWed, 11 Dec 2013 09:09:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mexican-export-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mexican-export-outlookGrowth in real exports, which account for roughly a third of Mexico’s GDP, has improved recently following the depreciating peso and Fed taper talk. Will this improvement continue and help boost the export-driven Mexican economy?ECRI has just updated its Mexican Leading Exports Index , designed to anticipate cyclical swings in Mexican export growth. The MXLExI shows what lies ahead for the Mexi...ECRIWed, 11 Dec 2013 09:01:54 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-11A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened last week to its highest level in three and a half years, while the annualized growth rate ticked higher, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said that in the week ended Nov. 29 its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.8, its highest since April 2010, from a revis...ECRIFri, 06 Dec 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-up-1U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.3 from the revised October 99.7 reading, originally reported 99.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG staying near October's 22-month low, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend," ECRI Chief Operati...ECRIFri, 06 Dec 2013 09:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflationEurozone inflation will remain subdued in coming months despite price pressures edging up from their lowest level in almost four years, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 90.5 in October from September's 90.2."Although the EZFIG increased in October, it remains i...ECRIFri, 06 Dec 2013 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-fresh-off-recession-spain-enters-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-fresh-off-recession-spain-enters-deflationECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.With Spain only recently exiting recession, the country suffered a setback in October, entering deflation for the first time in four years. This has raised concerns of a deflationary phase in Spain as European Central Bank Presiden...ECRIThu, 05 Dec 2013 16:47:53 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-monetary-accommodation-and-international-home-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-monetary-accommodation-and-international-home-pricesEspecially in a world of quantitative easing, more and more investors are looking for reliable places to maintain and possibly grow their wealth, with many turning to the real estate market.In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth study on international home prices, including an analysis of affordability and volatility in the world’s major economies and selected cities from a cyclical vi...ECRIThu, 05 Dec 2013 09:02:24 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-micawber-principle-something-will-turn-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-micawber-principle-something-will-turn-upLast year – the 200th anniversary of the birth of Charles Dickens – we recalled the Micawber principle: “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.”In that context, it is ironic that the central banks of the two largest English-speaking countries a...ECRIMon, 02 Dec 2013 08:57:27 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-construction-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-construction-outlookFollowing its delayed release, building permits for October came in well above expectations. Since they are seen as a driver of housing activity, it supports the view of those who believe that U.S. construction sector growth will contribute to an economic growth rebound in 2014.However, rather than looking at one indicator of construction activity, which can be distorted by monthly fluctuations...ECRIWed, 27 Nov 2013 12:16:03 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-edges-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-edges-up-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a nine-week high while the annualized growth rate also gained, a research group said on Wednesday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 132.5 in the week ended Nov. 22, up from 132.1 the prior week. That figure was originally reported as 132.2.The index's annu...ECRIWed, 27 Nov 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-consumer-spending-prospects-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-consumer-spending-prospects-1Last week, a headline measure of consumer spending, retail sales, came out stronger than expected. However, a closer look reveals that real retail sales growth is flagging for many categories of goods and services. How should one reconcile these competing signals?ECRI’s latest study investigates the prospects for consumer spending growth in light of widespread discounting by retailers in antici...ECRITue, 26 Nov 2013 09:05:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-10A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week, with the annualized growth rate at its highest in over a month, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.2 in the week ended Nov. 15 from a revised 131.0 the previous week. That figure originally was reported as 131.1.Th...ECRIFri, 22 Nov 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-secular-stagnation-aka-the-yo-yo-years-vs-fed-policyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-secular-stagnation-aka-the-yo-yo-years-vs-fed-policyDespite an extended period of economic weakness, the consensus is still looking for a sustained pickup in U.S. growth. Thus, the latest headline GDP and jobs data bolstered hopes that a strong U.S. recovery might be around the corner.Our recent analysis examines whether the GDP and jobs data provide grounds for such optimism. Looking forward, we also review the updated trajectories of our array...ECRIThu, 21 Nov 2013 09:03:01 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-path-for-taiwanese-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-path-for-taiwanese-inflationTaiwanese inflation rose in September, partly due to damages from a Typhoon that drove up vegetable prices. However, our analysis last month of key drivers of Taiwanese inflation led us to expect that Taiwanese inflation would stay weak. Sure enough, Taiwanese inflation for October was reported lower than the consensus had expected.To understand if these recent movement are simply noise, or par...ECRITue, 19 Nov 2013 09:05:28 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-5A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower last week, although the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.1 in the week ended Nov. 8 from a revised 131.4 the previous week. That figure originally was reported as 131.0.The index's annual...ECRIFri, 15 Nov 2013 10:44:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-fed-policy-and-the-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-fed-policy-and-the-business-cycleECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with BNN about global central bank policy targets and the business cycle. Last June Mr. Bernanke said the dip in inflation was transitory, yet as of September Harmonized U.S. CPI growth was already lower than in the Eurozone, and very close to levels that triggered the ECB rate cut last week.ECRIThu, 14 Nov 2013 09:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-business-news-network-bnnhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-business-news-network-bnnECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest today at 2:15PM on Canada's BNN.ECRIWed, 13 Nov 2013 12:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-despite-higher-gdp-german-business-investment-lagshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-despite-higher-gdp-german-business-investment-lagsWhile German GDP growth rebounded nicely in the second quarter, business investment has been sluggish. In fact, machinery and equipment investment has only just posted positive quarter-on-quarter growth for the first time since 2011. Further strengthening in machinery and equipment investment growth would help secure Germany’s ongoing economic recovery.ECRI’s latest analysis examines the growth...ECRIWed, 13 Nov 2013 09:13:43 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-home-price-recovery-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-home-price-recovery-prospectsThe U.S. housing market has been a focus for policymakers since the Great Recession, with central bankers hoping a renewed housing “wealth effect” might be a useful transmission for spurring economic growth. In line with our home price growth upturn call in early 2012, U.S. home price growth had begun to strengthen after years of waning. Then in March, before taper-talk emerged, we warned of sl...ECRIMon, 11 Nov 2013 09:23:32 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-down-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-down-2A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped to a three-week low while the annualized growth rate rebounded slightly from a recent 14-month low, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 131.0 in the week ended Nov. 1, down from a revised 131.4 the prior week. That figure was ...ECRIFri, 08 Nov 2013 10:43:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-slips-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-slips-furtherU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge inched down to 99.5 from the revised September 100.1 reading, originally reported 100.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG easing to a 22-month low, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downswing," ECRI Chief Operations Of...ECRIFri, 08 Nov 2013 09:59:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-canada-allows-for-rate-cut-amid-slowing-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-canada-allows-for-rate-cut-amid-slowing-growthECRI has just updated its Canadian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Last month, the Bank of Canada backed off its stance that its next rate adjustment would be upward, a position the BoC has held since April 2012, instead adopting a neutral stance. This shift, opening the window for a...ECRIWed, 06 Nov 2013 09:14:02 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-bloomberg-interview-central-bank-actionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-bloomberg-interview-central-bank-actionsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss central bank actions and how they have agreed with ECRI's views.ECRIMon, 04 Nov 2013 09:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-interview-lakshman-achuthan-ali-velshihttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-interview-lakshman-achuthan-ali-velshiECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Ali Velshi on Al Jazeera America on Monday, November 4, at 7:00 PM . ECRIMon, 04 Nov 2013 07:43:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-inflation-us-eurozone-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-inflation-us-eurozone-japanEarlier this year we pointed out that, with the U.S. and other major Western economies experiencing slower growth in the last five years than Japan in its lost decades, long-term trend growth had already downshifted around the world, resulting in weaker recoveries and more frequent recessions than most had expected when the 21st century began. Following Japan’s lost-decades example, the policy ...ECRIMon, 04 Nov 2013 07:08:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-bloomberg-tv-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a Bloomberg TV guest on Monday, November 4, at 6:00 AM . ECRIMon, 04 Nov 2013 06:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/monday-mondayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/monday-monday  ECRIFri, 01 Nov 2013 16:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-slows-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-slows-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a four-week high while the annualized growth rate slipped to the lowest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 131.5 in the week ended Oct. 25, up from 131.1 the prior week.The index's annualized growth rate...ECRIFri, 01 Nov 2013 10:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-declinehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-declineEuro zone inflation will ease further in the coming months as price pressures have fallen to their lowest level in almost four years, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, fell to a 46-month low of 89.6 in September from August's 89.7."Euro zone inflation is likely to stay weak,...ECRIFri, 01 Nov 2013 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-outlook-likely-to-influence-ecb-rate-cut-decisionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-outlook-likely-to-influence-ecb-rate-cut-decisionECRI has just updated its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Eurozone inflation.Eurozone inflation grew at just 0.7% in October, its slowest pace in nearly four years. With inflation well below the ECB’s target of 2% and the unemployment rate at a record high, expectations of an ECB benchmark rate cut are in...ECRIThu, 31 Oct 2013 10:35:45 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-abenomics-cyclical-drivershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-abenomics-cyclical-driversJapan has clearly exited from recession and deflation with GDP recovering to near the level seen before the Global Financial Crisis, and consumer prices inflation notching positive growth for four consecutive months. The recovery is popularly credited to Abenomics, but many don’t know that an upturn in fundamental cyclical drivers preceded Abenomics, playing a primary role in the revival. Indee...ECRIThu, 31 Oct 2013 10:03:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-japanese-business-cycle-dateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-japanese-business-cycle-datesECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013.Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECR...ECRIWed, 30 Oct 2013 14:12:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-key-international-indicators-reveal-surprising-patternhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-key-international-indicators-reveal-surprising-patternThere is a firmly held belief that global growth is picking up – a sentiment based on some scattered economic data and rising equity prices, alongside official statements. To the latter point, in spite of optimistic-sounding rhetoric, continued worldwide monetary easing speaks to an opposing view that weakness still abounds. Which view is correct?ECRI’s updated global leading indexes for both g...ECRIMon, 28 Oct 2013 09:13:27 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-dropsA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a three-week high while the annualized growth rate slipped to the lowest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 131.1 in the week ended Oct. 18, down from 130.3 the prior week. That figure was originally rep...ECRIFri, 25 Oct 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-prospects-for-u-s-financial-serviceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-prospects-for-u-s-financial-servicesGrowth in the U.S. financial services sector has clearly eased from its 2012 high, contributing to sluggish third quarter bank earnings. Since this sector is a key contributor to overall economic growth, it is important to assess its cyclical growth outlook.ECRI’s U.S. Leading Financial Services Index anticipates cyclical turning points in financial service sector activity.  Thus, it already pr...ECRIFri, 25 Oct 2013 09:02:12 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-revelations-from-lesser-known-employment-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-revelations-from-lesser-known-employment-dataDespite this month’s government data hiatus caused by the federal shutdown, other sources of data continued to shed light on where U.S. economic activity is headed. ECRI’s recent review of state-level employment data showed a clear downward trajectory for U.S. jobs growth, correctly anticipating the weakness revealed in today’s belated employment report.ECRITue, 22 Oct 2013 14:11:24 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-prospects-for-u-s-growth-revivalhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-prospects-for-u-s-growth-revivalThe recent government shutdown raised some concerns about the impact on U.S. GDP growth. On the other hand, it also brightened the prospect of the Fed “taper” being pushed off even further. Indeed, the S&P 500 hit a record high following these developments, even as the second-half rebound remained elusive.ECRI has completed a study examining U.S. economic growth prospects, based on a wide array...ECRITue, 22 Oct 2013 09:01:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-slipsA measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week but the annualized growth rate slowed to its lowest in a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.4 in the week ended Oct. 11 from a revised 130.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.4.The ind...ECRIFri, 18 Oct 2013 10:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-korean-consumer-spending-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-korean-consumer-spending-prospectsKorean GDP has strengthened somewhat since late last year, but, so far, the major contribution to GDP growth has come from the volatile exports component. In contrast, the less volatile consumer spending contribution was quite small in the second quarter. For the upturn in GDP growth to be sustainable, consumer spending growth needs to pick up in the coming quarters.ECRI’s Korean Long Leading I...ECRIThu, 17 Oct 2013 09:15:51 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-industrial-production-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-industrial-production-prospectsEurozone manufacturing survey data has been generally optimistic, despite a modest one-month downtick in their Purchasing Managers Index. Industrial production growth itself rose in its latest reading, exceeding expectations.Given the moderate optimism among the consensus, ECRI’s latest study focuses on what lies ahead for the Eurozone industrial sector, clarifying whether the recent data is in...ECRIWed, 16 Oct 2013 09:27:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-retail-sales-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-retail-sales-growth-prospectsThough September’s data was not released in October due to the government shutdown, the latest available figures show U.S. retail sales growth falling in August to its lowest reading in three months. At the time of release, some had speculated that the surprise decline was limited to certain sectors, and that overall sales would almost certainly pick up for the holiday shopping season. Now, wit...ECRIMon, 14 Oct 2013 09:05:04 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-drops-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-drops-2A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level since early July while the annualized growth rate also slipped, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 130.4 in the week ended Oct. 4, down from 132.1 the prior week.The index's annualized growth rate was 3.8 per...ECRIFri, 11 Oct 2013 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped to a four-week low while the annualized growth held steady, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 132.1 in the week ended Sept. 27, down from 132.9 the prior week.The index's annualized growth was 4.8 percent, matching the previ...ECRIFri, 04 Oct 2013 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-remains-at-20-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-remains-at-20-month-lowU.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 100.0 after August's number was revised down from the originally reported 100.8, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG staying at August's 20-month low, underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. remain in retreat," ECRI Chief Opera...ECRIFri, 04 Oct 2013 10:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-at-44-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-at-44-month-lowEuro zone inflation will ease further in coming months after price pressures fell to their lowest in almost four years, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, fell to a 44-month low of 89.7 in August from July's 91.3."Euro zone inflation is likely to stay weak in the months ahead...ECRIFri, 04 Oct 2013 04:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-korean-inflation-at-14-year-low-amid-stronger-spending-and-investmenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-korean-inflation-at-14-year-low-amid-stronger-spending-and-investmentECRI has just updated its Korean Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Korean inflation.In September, Korean consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in 14 years, despite positive signs for spending and a budget proposal calling for government expenditures to increase 4.6%. Meanwhile, foreign demand for Korean currenc...ECRIThu, 03 Oct 2013 16:46:48 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-growth-and-inflation-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-growth-and-inflation-prospectsThe Fed’s decision not to “taper” came as a shock to analysts around the world, largely because the consensus view on global economic growth has been relatively positive. A key part of that thesis was based on the assumption of U.S. economic strength.Yet major central banks, in Washington and around the world, are still pressing hard on the quantitative-easing gas. Do underlying inflation press...ECRIThu, 03 Oct 2013 09:15:47 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-construction-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-construction-prospectsEarlier this month, stronger than expected construction spending growth as well as manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management persuaded the consensus that U.S. economic growth prospects continue to improve. With regard to the latter, our research has shown that the changing relationship between ISM data and its targets can offer valuable insights about the trajectory of the man...ECRIWed, 02 Oct 2013 09:04:58 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-taiwan-cuts-exports-forecasthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-taiwan-cuts-exports-forecastECRI has just updated its Taiwanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.The Taiwanese statistical bureau recently cut its 2013 forecasts for exports and GDP growth. The bureau’s dimmed outlook notwithstanding, exports, which account for three-quarters of GDP, grew for the fourth straight...ECRITue, 01 Oct 2013 09:12:51 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-risks-boom-bust-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-risks-boom-bust-cycleLast fall, when there was widespread concern among the consensus about a “triple-dip” recession, ECRI correctly called the U.K.’s exit from its second recession in five years. Indeed, in its latest reading, growth in the U.K. Coincident Index climbed to a 70-month high, while GDP growth is perking up and construction output is booming. A key question at this juncture is how long the U.K. expans...ECRIMon, 30 Sep 2013 09:04:33 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-u-k-cycle-dateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-u-k-cycle-datesFor the U.K. economy ECRI is today announcing a new business cycle trough of Feb. 2012 as well as a growth rate cycle peak of Mar. 2012 and trough of Oct. 2012.Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to det...ECRIFri, 27 Sep 2013 14:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-edges-upA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to its highest in three and a half years last week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.9 in the week ended Sept. 20, its strongest showing since April 2010, from a revised 132.3 the...ECRIFri, 27 Sep 2013 10:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-comments-on-japan-s-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-comments-on-japan-s-recoveryECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC about Prime Minister Abe's statement that Japan's economy is back on track.ECRIThu, 26 Sep 2013 10:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ism-vs-hard-target-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ism-vs-hard-target-dataAlthough widely-followed indicators of the U.S. economy, like the Institute for Supply Management data, have been more optimistic of late, growth in “hard” data like industrial production and employment remains weak. Which data sets reveal the true state of the economy?ECRI’s latest study investigates the linkages between ISM data and its targets, providing definitive insights on which indicato...ECRIWed, 25 Sep 2013 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-tapering-of-tractionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-tapering-of-tractionSome key economic data have been apparently growing stronger of late, with the Institute for Supply Management surveys indicating greater optimism and the number of new claims for unemployment insurance continuing to trend down. Despite this good news, however, the Fed surprised financial markets by announcing that tapering may possibly begin only later this year. Does this mean that the U.S. e...ECRIMon, 23 Sep 2013 08:57:53 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchanged-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchanged-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady at its highest level in more than three years while the annualized growth rate hit a four-week high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 132.4 in the week ended Sept. 13, matching a revised 132.4 the prior week. The previo...ECRIFri, 20 Sep 2013 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-state-of-the-russian-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-state-of-the-russian-business-cycleWeakness in the Russian economy is forcing the government to cut fiscal spending. Yet with GDP growth still positive, there remains uncertainty whether Russia is in an economic slowdown, or a recession.In this context, ECRI’s Russian Coincident Index , a broader measure of the Russian economy, already provides a clearer perspective. In conjunction with the growth rate of ECRI’s Russian Leading ...ECRIThu, 19 Sep 2013 09:28:04 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-manufacturing-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-manufacturing-prospectsThe July U.K. industrial production data disappointed the consensus, coming out flat after June’s upside surprise. Was the June data merely a one-off, or was it a true green shoot for the U.K. manufacturing sector?ECRI’s latest report answers this question, featuring updates to ECRI’s U.K. Leading and Coincident Manufacturing Indexes to reveal the future trajectory of a sector that employs roug...ECRIWed, 18 Sep 2013 09:24:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-9A measure of future U.S. economic growth hit its highest level in more than three years last week and the annualized growth rate rebounded from a previous 39-week low, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.3 in the week ended Sept. 6, up from 131.5. The reading was the high...ECRIFri, 13 Sep 2013 10:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-consumer-spending-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-consumer-spending-prospectsLast February we noted that, because ECRI’s Japanese Future Inflation Gauge showed deflationary pressures starting to recede long before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was elected, further monetary easing would likely be excessive and might also bring new risks to the Japanese economy.In this context, our latest analysis focuses on the likely impact of Abenomics on Japanese consumer spending growth....ECRIWed, 11 Sep 2013 09:01:23 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-slowshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-slowsA measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up slightly last week but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest in 39 weeks, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.5 in the week ended Aug. 30, its highest in four weeks. It stood at 131.3 the previous week.The index's...ECRIFri, 06 Sep 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-price-pressures-ease-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-price-pressures-ease-furtherPrice pressures remain muted, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.8 in August from 102.0 in July. The gauge is designed to measure the economy's underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle."With the USFIG falling for the fourth straight month to a 19-month low, under...ECRIFri, 06 Sep 2013 10:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-bbc-jobs-reporthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-bbc-jobs-reportECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC about the U.S. job market, highlighting the fact that people betwen the ages of 35 and 54 have actually lost jobs net-net since the Great Recession ended. ECRIFri, 06 Sep 2013 09:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-holds-at-40-month-low-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-holds-at-40-month-low-economic-cycle-researchEurozone inflation should ease in coming months after price pressures stayed at multi-year lows in July, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, held steady in July at June's 40-month low of 91.4."Eurozone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downswing in the months ahead,"...ECRIFri, 06 Sep 2013 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-obstacles-remain-for-u-k-inflation-s-return-to-targethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-obstacles-remain-for-u-k-inflation-s-return-to-targetECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.Now that CPI inflation has ticked down to 2.8% and has remained below 3% for more than a year, the consensus is hoping that inflation is finally headed back toward the Bank of England’s 2% target. However, obstacles remain as t...ECRIThu, 05 Sep 2013 16:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-housing-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-housing-prospectsThe mainstream media has continued talking of surging home sales, alongside some concern that housing activity will flag. Last March, prior to the jump in mortgage rates, ECRI warned of a downturn in real home prices growth, which has since begun to ease. Separately, ECRI also monitors cycles in housing activity.ECRI’s latest report presents a cyclical analysis of U.S. housing activity, providi...ECRIThu, 05 Sep 2013 09:01:45 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-india-s-trilemma-targeting-growth-inflation-or-free-falling-rupeehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-india-s-trilemma-targeting-growth-inflation-or-free-falling-rupeeAs anticipated by the earlier downturn in ECRI’s Indian Long Leading Index, Indian economic growth has been slowing since 2011. Recently, GDP growth has eased markedly and industrial production growth is hovering in negative territory, while consumer price inflation remains close to double-digit readings. Compounding matters is a free fall in the rupee, whose plummet to a record low has trigger...ECRIWed, 04 Sep 2013 09:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-france-exited-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-france-exited-recessionECRI has just updated its French Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.With French GDP expanding at 0.5% in the second quarter after two back-to-back quarters of negative growth, the Finance Minister announced the “end of the recession” last month. Despite this pronouncement, efforts to tr...ECRITue, 03 Sep 2013 09:07:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-ticks-down-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week but the annualized growth rate slipped, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.3 in the week ended Aug. 23, its highest in three weeks. It stood at 131.0 the previous week, a revision to the initially reported leve...ECRIFri, 30 Aug 2013 10:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-backdrop-for-emerging-market-currencieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-backdrop-for-emerging-market-currenciesWith “taper talk” in full swing, markets around the world have been rattled with fears that the massive cash stimulus from quantitative easing will soon be diminished. In particular, emerging market currencies have taken a dive. Does the cyclical backdrop provide any insight into the prospects for those currencies?ECRI’s latest report presents a cyclical analysis of emerging market currencies t...ECRIThu, 29 Aug 2013 08:58:09 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-prospects-for-u-s-service-sector-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-prospects-for-u-s-service-sector-growthEarly this month the release of the Institute of Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index persuaded the consensus of forecasters that the most important U.S. economic sector was on the road to recovery. The overall index jumped to its highest reading since February, mostly due to a surge in its new orders component.Given the optimism, it is important to review the latest cyclical moves of EC...ECRIWed, 28 Aug 2013 09:19:23 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-ticks-down-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a four-week low last week and the annualized growth rate slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.1 in the week ended Aug. 16, which was the lowest since the week ended July 19, and down from 131.2 in the week ended Aug...ECRIFri, 23 Aug 2013 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-revisions-reveal-recessionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-revisions-reveal-recessionsThe recent U.S. GDP release featured significant revisions, with extensive conceptual changes enacted back to 1929. What do these revisions tell us about the current state of the U.S. economy?Revisiting ECRI’s earlier finding that GDP data for almost all the early quarters of recent recessions have been revised down dramatically, our latest research looks beyond the current GDP print to better ...ECRIThu, 22 Aug 2013 09:02:24 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-second-half-rebound-reduxhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-second-half-rebound-reduxWith the unemployment rate at 7.4% and jobless claims declining, there is widespread anticipation of a second-half rebound in economic growth. Indeed, the alleged improvement in labor market conditions has led the consensus to argue that U.S. consumers will come to the economy’s rescue, in tandem with continued wealth-effect support from equity and home prices. But, are labor market conditions ...ECRITue, 20 Aug 2013 09:13:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-declineshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-declinesA measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped to a three-week low last week while the annualized growth rate also eased, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.2 in the week ended Aug. 9 from a revised 131.5. The previous week's result was originally reported as 131.8.The...ECRIFri, 16 Aug 2013 10:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-10A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to the highest in over three years, while the annualized growth rate improved to its highest in over a month, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.8 in the week ended Aug 2, which was the highest since May 2010, f...ECRIFri, 09 Aug 2013 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-export-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-export-growth-outlookAfter disappointing figures for June, Chinese year-over-year export growth surprised to the upside in July, but remained well below its recent highs. Thus, it is unclear from the data if this is a genuine upturn in export growth that is strong enough to boost overall Chinese economic growth.In this context, it is important to monitor ECRI’s Chinese Leading Export Index , because its growth rate...ECRIThu, 08 Aug 2013 16:35:04 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-will-spanish-home-prices-stabilizehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-will-spanish-home-prices-stabilizeSpanish real home price growth has been firming since late last year following the improvement in ECRI’s Spanish Leading Home Price Index . In fact, the latest data shows less negative growth in Spanish real home prices.Is this an indication that Spanish home prices will firm in the months ahead? Or will this improvement in the Spanish housing market be short-lived? ECRI’s latest study paints a...ECRIFri, 02 Aug 2013 15:32:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cyle-research-future-inflation-gauge-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cyle-research-future-inflation-gauge-dipsU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 102.9 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in June, originally reported as 103.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG dropping to an 11-month low, U.S. inflation pressures continue to ebb," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achutha...ECRIFri, 02 Aug 2013 10:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-at-40-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-at-40-month-low Eurozone inflation will ease in the coming months after price pressures fell further from the three-year lows hit in May, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, fell to a 40-month low of 91.2 in June from May's 91.8."Eurozone inflation will stay in a downturn in the months ahead...ECRIFri, 02 Aug 2013 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-growth-rate-cycle-peak-and-trough-new-zealandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-growth-rate-cycle-peak-and-trough-new-zealandToday ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak and trough dates for New Zealand.Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration i...ECRIFri, 02 Aug 2013 03:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-9A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.8 in the week ended July 26 from 131.2 the previous week. That was originally reported as 131.3.The index's annualized growth ...ECRIFri, 02 Aug 2013 02:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-slowdown-may-force-rba-to-cut-rates-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-slowdown-may-force-rba-to-cut-rates-againECRI has just updated its Australian Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Australian inflation.With the slowdown in China, Australia’s top export destination, hurting the Australian economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut rates next week as Australian inflation remained in the RBA’s target band in the...ECRIThu, 01 Aug 2013 17:04:35 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-sub-saharan-africa-an-alternative-source-of-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-sub-saharan-africa-an-alternative-source-of-growthThe global economic growth outlook continues to be weak, with the developed economies having shifted into “the yo-yo years,” which dictate more frequent recessions due to lower growth and higher cyclical volatility.  Consequently, when seeking alternative sources of growth, many have turned to developing economies in Latin America and Asia. However, these developing economies, including the BRI...ECRIThu, 01 Aug 2013 09:00:13 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-taming-brazilian-inflation-at-the-cost-of-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-taming-brazilian-inflation-at-the-cost-of-growthECRI has just updated its Brazilian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.With Brazilian inflation above-target in June, the Banco Central do Brasil raised its key interest rate this month, marking its third increase this year. This latest rate cut comes on the heels of the BCB revising do...ECRIWed, 31 Jul 2013 15:42:44 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-economy-turning-japanesehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-economy-turning-japaneseIs the U.S. Turning Japanese?In the 1970s, many Americans feared Japan would set the tone for growth in the 21st century economy. One research group says that may be the case — but not in the way feared decades ago.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private research firm that has been bearish on the U.S. economy, says the U.S.’s performance in this recovery is looking ominously similar to...ECRITue, 30 Jul 2013 14:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-part-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-part-1Five years ago, the summer before the Lehman collapse, ECRI’s research found that U.S. economic growth had been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions, going back to the 1970s. So, even before the Global Financial Crisis and deleveraging concerns came to the fore, we predicted a feeble economic expansion to follow the then-ongoing recession. We extended our research to other majo...ECRITue, 30 Jul 2013 06:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-bloomberg-interview-on-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-bloomberg-interview-on-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joing Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss our recession call, and how the U.S. economy is now resembling Japan's "lost decades."ECRITue, 30 Jul 2013 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-green-shoots-in-europehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-green-shoots-in-europeWith economic weakness persisting in the U.S., and Chinese economic growth showing concerted signs of sluggishness, there seems to be little room for hope that conditions worldwide will pick up in the near term. In Europe, some data releases have shown that promising prospects could be on the horizon. Is this indicative of true momentum gathering for long-afflicted economies in the region?ECRI’...ECRIMon, 29 Jul 2013 11:45:10 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-unchangedA measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to its highest level since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate held steady, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 131.3 in the week ended July 19 from 131.2 the previous week.The index's annualized growth ra...ECRIFri, 26 Jul 2013 10:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-construction-sector-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-construction-sector-growth-prospectsThe pickup in housing activity was a welcome boon for the construction sector. Yet with the recent rise in mortgage rates and the drop in U.S. housing starts, there is some increasing concern that the housing market will not grow as strongly as before, weighing on the construction sector going forward.In this context, we examine the performance of ECRI’s U.S. Leading Construction Index , which ...ECRIThu, 25 Jul 2013 13:35:32 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-can-the-wealth-effect-deliver-consumer-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-can-the-wealth-effect-deliver-consumer-spendingLooking to U.S. consumers to help salvage the U.S. economy, policymakers launched unprecedented monetary stimulus through QE in hopes of boosting growth via the “wealth effect.” But, despite Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress last week that rising housing prices have indeed upped economic activity, personal spending growth continues to hover around recessionary readings. It appears t...ECRIMon, 22 Jul 2013 09:25:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-8A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened in the latest week to its highest in more than two years, while the annualized growth rate also edged higher, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.2 in the week ended July 12 from a revised 130.1 the prior week. That wa...ECRIFri, 19 Jul 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-triumph-of-hope-over-experience-qe-editionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-triumph-of-hope-over-experience-qe-editionWith stock prices reaching new record highs and home prices continuing to rise, many believe the wealth effect is steering the U.S. economy onto a clear recovery track. In this vein, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified to Congress this week that “housing has contributed significantly to recent gains in economic growth.” However, reality contradicts this hopeful view, with retail sales coming in bel...ECRIFri, 19 Jul 2013 09:19:07 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-industrial-growth-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-industrial-growth-outlookJapanese industrial growth has clearly improved this year. Yet, the weakness in the global economy, and particularly in its largest trading partner, China, raises questions regarding the sustainability of this upturn.Ultimately, the cyclical indicators driving Japanese industrial growth will determine whether the upturn continues. Since ECRI’s Japanese Leading Manufacturing Index is comprised o...ECRITue, 16 Jul 2013 09:12:31 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-st-john-s-newfoundland-member-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-st-john-s-newfoundland-member-presentationOn July 11 and 12 ECRI principals will be visiting St. John's, Newfoundland to meet with professional members.ECRIFri, 12 Jul 2013 23:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-india-member-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-india-member-presentationOn July 12 ECRI principals will be visiting India to meet with professional members.ECRIFri, 12 Jul 2013 23:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-falls-furtherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-falls-furtherA measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked higher last week but the annualized growth rate slid to its lowest since late last year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 130.3 in the week ended July 5 from 130.2 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.4....ECRIFri, 12 Jul 2013 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-predicts-more-pain-for-indian-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-predicts-more-pain-for-indian-economyThe New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute, which specialises in doomsaying, has predicted more pains for India as the depreciating rupee has not only exposed the economy to a risk of stagflation, it may face recessionary pressure in the future if the current trend of low trend growth and frequent spikes in business cycles continues for long.Stagflation in an economic situation when i...ECRIFri, 12 Jul 2013 09:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-german-inflation-jumps-nears-ecb-targethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-german-inflation-jumps-nears-ecb-targetECRI has just updated its German Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Eurozone inflation.After spending much of 2012 at or above the ECB’s target inflation rate of 2%, German inflation dropped below target in January, and has since remained there. However, in the past two months, inflation has risen noticeably, partial...ECRITue, 09 Jul 2013 09:12:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-demand-for-german-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-demand-for-german-exportsECRI has just updated its German Leading Eurozone Exports Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in German exports to the Eurozone.In the last quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year, German exports declined, falling in consecutive quarters for the first time since mid-2009. Per the Bundesbank’s June report, much of this drop was due to weakn...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2013 11:57:17 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index decreased to 130.4 in the week ended June 28 from 130.6 the previous week.The index's annualized ...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2013 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-dropsPrice pressures continue to lessen in June, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 103.3 last month from 103.7 in May and 105.5 in April. The gauge is designed to measure the economy's underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle."With the [index] falling further to a seven-...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2013 10:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-zone-inflation-pressure-39-month-low-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-zone-inflation-pressure-39-month-low-economic-cycle-researchEuro zone inflation will ease in the coming months after price pressures held at a more than three-year low in May, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed. The Eurozone Future inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, held at April's 39-month low of 90.7. "Euro zone inflation will remain in a downswing in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, EC...ECRIFri, 05 Jul 2013 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-slowdown-weighs-on-taiwanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-slowdown-weighs-on-taiwanECRI has just updated its Taiwanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Despite low inflation and sluggish growth, the Taiwanese central bank maintained its current monetary policy last week. This comes on the heels of the government cutting its 2013 GDP forecast and its economic monitor...ECRIWed, 03 Jul 2013 09:09:26 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-outlook-for-brazilian-exportshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-outlook-for-brazilian-exportsWhile the Brazilian economy is more diverse than other commodity-based economies in the region, industrial and primary-stage goods are an important part of the nation’s exports, particularly to China – Brazil’s main export destination by far.  China’s weakening outlook, coupled with falling commodity prices, dwindling global growth, and disappointing Brazilian GDP, have left many analysts with ...ECRITue, 02 Jul 2013 15:53:31 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-global-recession-probabilitieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-global-recession-probabilitiesIn the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, central banks around the world have employed unconventional measures like quantitative easing , which, they hope, will boost growth. But, despite massive QE injections, many major economies have repeatedly fallen into recession. This is hardly surprising in the context of “the yo-yo years” thesis, first presented by ECRI four years ago, which predicte...ECRIMon, 01 Jul 2013 09:12:19 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-ticks-upA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week, though the annualized growth rate fell to its slowest pace since the beginning of the year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.6 in the week ended June 21 from 130.3 the previous week. The index's annualized growth...ECRIFri, 28 Jun 2013 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-key-risks-for-chinese-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-key-risks-for-chinese-economyWith an eye on containing financial risks, Chinese policymakers have again gained market attention as they became somewhat more restrictive with credit in recent days. This has come on the heels of waning economic growth, and some analysts cutting Chinese growth forecasts. Further, with some inflation measures having seemingly cooled, yet property price inflation still strong, many are wonderin...ECRIThu, 27 Jun 2013 13:26:27 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-seoul-member-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-seoul-member-presentationOn June 24 - 26 ECRI principals will be visiting Seoul to meet with professional members.ECRIWed, 26 Jun 2013 12:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-deflation-risks-for-the-u-s-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-deflation-risks-for-the-u-s-economyDespite multiple rounds of quantitative easing , the U.S. inflation rate has been plunging, with growth in the headline PCE deflator having dropped to a reading never seen outside a recessionary context. It is now at just 0.7%, well below the Fed's official 2% target announced in January 2012. Earlier, the Fed's unofficial focus was on core PCE inflation, which has now dropped to the lowest rea...ECRIFri, 21 Jun 2013 11:57:48 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week, while the annualized growth rate cooled to its slowest pace since the beginning of the year, a research group said on Friday.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to its lowest level in over a month at 130.3 in the week ended June 14 from 131.2 the pr...ECRIFri, 21 Jun 2013 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-weak-japanese-investment-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-weak-japanese-investment-growthIn spite of Abenomics, private nonresidential investment continued to decline in the first quarter. This is worrisome for Japanese policymakers because unless investment growth picks up, the economic recovery is unlikely to persist for long. What are the prospects for a near-term revival in Japanese investment growth?The relationship between the growth rates of ECRI’s Japanese Long Leading Inde...ECRIFri, 14 Jun 2013 11:43:46 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-8A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to its highest in more than two years in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also accelerated, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 131.3 in the week ended June 7, its strongest since April 2011, from a revised 131....ECRIFri, 14 Jun 2013 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mixed-signals-for-spanish-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mixed-signals-for-spanish-economyECRI has updated its Spanish Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Spain continues to be mired in recession, with GDP shrinking for seven consecutive quarters and unemployment at a record 26.6%. However, the latest Spanish purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing popped up to a two-yea...ECRIThu, 13 Jun 2013 10:29:30 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-business-cycle-dates-new-zealandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-new-business-cycle-dates-new-zealandToday ECRI is announcing May and October 2010 as the business cycle peak and trough dates for the most recent recession in New Zealand.Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-f...ECRITue, 11 Jun 2013 09:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-ticks-downA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to the highest level since early May last week, though the annualized growth rate edged lower, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 130.9 in the week ended May 31 from 130.7 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate s...ECRIFri, 07 Jun 2013 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-fig-at-six-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-fig-at-six-month-lowU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 103.9 from an upwardly revised 105.5 in April, originally reported as 105.4, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG has now declined to a six-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, U.S. inflati...ECRIFri, 07 Jun 2013 09:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-fall-to-38-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-fall-to-38-month-lowEuro zone inflation will ease in the coming months after price pressures fell to their lowest in over three years in April, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to a 38-month low of 91.1 from 92.2 in March, as similar national indicators fell in Germany, France, Italy and Spain."...ECRIFri, 07 Jun 2013 05:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecb-move-will-not-significantly-impact-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-ecb-move-will-not-significantly-impact-inflationECRI has just updated its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Eurozone inflation.Despite last month’s rate cut by the European Central Bank , a move that typically increases inflation expectations, the ECB reduced its 2013 inflation forecast today. This suggests that the ECB is not overly concerned about infl...ECRIThu, 06 Jun 2013 16:50:50 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-the-u-s-labor-market-in-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-the-u-s-labor-market-in-recoveryA slew of weak economic data releases attesting to the fragility of the U.S. economy were quickly pushed aside by the positive jobs report in early May.ECRI’s latest study looks behind the jobs headlines to assess current signs of strength and vulnerability in the U.S. labor market, while also gauging the prospects for U.S. jobseekers in months to come. This ECRI report clearly answers whether ...ECRIThu, 06 Jun 2013 09:15:37 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-what-wealth-effecthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-what-wealth-effectA Broken TransmissionDespite surging prices for homes and equities, consumer spending is contracting, registering its biggest monthly decline since September 2009. Quite simply, the wealth effect is rendered moot by languishing incomes. No wonder yoy U.S. import growth has also plunged into negative territory, whether or not oil imports are included. In recent decades, this has happened only du...ECRIFri, 31 May 2013 12:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-7A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, while the annualized growth rate slipped, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.7 in the week ended May 24 from 130.5 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.6.The index's annualized growth rat...ECRIFri, 31 May 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-yo-yo-years-and-inflation-in-asiahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-the-yo-yo-years-and-inflation-in-asiaLately there has been much talk of a Japanese economic revival amid its unprecedented monetary easing. At the same time, there has been a lot of concern about divergent patterns in growth and inflation in the region, and whether “Abenomics” will actually fix Japan’s deflationary problems, which are both cyclical and structural in nature.ECRI’s latest report examines the competing influences on ...ECRIThu, 30 May 2013 09:58:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-ticks-downA measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, even as the annualized growth rate declined slightly, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.6 in the week ended May 17 from 130.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.2.The index's annualized...ECRIFri, 24 May 2013 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-stock-price-rally-wealth-effect-fed-taperhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-stock-price-rally-wealth-effect-fed-taperSince early April, economic data releases have mostly been worse than expected. However, with a “better-than-feared” jobs report in early May quickly dispelling mounting concerns, stock prices have kept climbing. It is well known that the Fed’s QE policy is intended to boost the prices of stocks and homes, the assumption being that this will induce consumers to spend more money, thereby driving...ECRIWed, 22 May 2013 10:31:40 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-stock-price-rally-and-the-wealth-effecthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-stock-price-rally-and-the-wealth-effectSince early April, economic data releases have mostly been worse than expected. However, with a “better-than-feared” jobs report in early May quickly dispelling mounting concerns, stock prices have kept climbing. It is well known that the Fed’s QE policy is intended to boost the prices of stocks and homes, the assumption being that this will induce consumers to spend more money, thereby driving...ECRIWed, 22 May 2013 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-london-member-presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-london-member-presentationOn May 22 and 23 ECRI principals will be visiting London to meet with professional members.ECRIWed, 22 May 2013 09:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-fellhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-fellA measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week, while the annualized growth rate also pulled back, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 130.2 in the week ended May 10 from 131.0 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate slipped to 7.0 percent from 7.4 ...ECRIFri, 17 May 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-outlook-for-u-k-labor-markethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-outlook-for-u-k-labor-marketWith stronger-than-expected U.K. GDP data recently cheering the consensus, fears of a triple-dip U.K. recession have been assuaged. However, with U.K. unemployment elevated and employment growth continuing to decline, is talk of a “healing” economy premature?In this context, the latest updates to ECRI’s U.K. Leading and Coincident Employment Indexes reveal whether the state of the U.K. labor ma...ECRIMon, 13 May 2013 09:20:42 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-6A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.0 in the week ended May 3 from 130.6 the previous week.  The index's annualized growth rate climbed to 7.3 percent from 7.1 pe...ECRIFri, 10 May 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-questions-about-australian-home-price-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-questions-about-australian-home-price-prospectsA year ago, Australian home prices were in a clear cyclical downturn, and the growth rate of Australian real home prices was deep in negative territory. At the time, we predicted on the basis of the growth rate of our Australian Leading Home Price Index that Australian home price growth was about to turn up, and home price growth did strengthen shortly after.In April, home prices fell, raising ...ECRIThu, 09 May 2013 16:47:57 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-manufacturing-jobs-growth-stalls-outhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-manufacturing-jobs-growth-stalls-outGrowth in U.S. industrial jobs seems to have reversed course recently after the addition of roughly half a million manufacturing jobs over the last three years. In fact, the latest jobs report shows year-over-year manufacturing job growth falling to a 30-month low.Is this downturn an anomaly, or is further weakness coming? ECRI’s latest study paints a clear picture of what lies ahead for indust...ECRIMon, 06 May 2013 12:11:27 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchanged-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchanged-2A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady last week, while the annualized growth rate improved to a two-month high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was unchanged at 130.6 in the week ended April 26 compared to the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate gain...ECRIFri, 03 May 2013 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-upU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.4 from a downwardly revised 103.9 in March, originally reported as 104.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its April uptick, the USFIG remains below its recent high. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain reasonably restrained," E...ECRIFri, 03 May 2013 09:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-inflation-pressures-near-three-year-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-inflation-pressures-near-three-year-lowEuro zone inflation will likely fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in March, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to 92.4 from February's 92.8, as similar national indicators fell in Germany, France and Spain."The EZFIG declined in its lates...ECRIFri, 03 May 2013 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-boe-accepts-40th-consecutive-month-of-above-target-inflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-boe-accepts-40th-consecutive-month-of-above-target-inflationECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.While inflation has declined markedly since 2011, it has plateaued well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with March’s reading marking the 40th straight above-target month. However, with economic growth remaining the BoE’s...ECRIThu, 02 May 2013 16:02:19 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-latest-canadian-gdp-figures-defy-carneyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-latest-canadian-gdp-figures-defy-carneyECRI has just updated its Canadian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.The consensus was cheered by the latest output data, stoking expectations of first quarter GDP growth above 2%, a rate that would be the economy’s strongest showing since 2011. However, this data comes just weeks afte...ECRIThu, 02 May 2013 10:40:13 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-growth-rate-cycle-peaks-for-mexico-and-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-growth-rate-cycle-peaks-for-mexico-and-japanToday ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Mexico and Japan .Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in eco...ECRIWed, 01 May 2013 10:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-business-cycle-peaks-for-italy-and-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-business-cycle-peaks-for-italy-and-japanToday ECRI is announcing new business cycle peak dates for Italy and Japan .Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBE...ECRIWed, 01 May 2013 10:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mexico-investors-face-cyclical-challengeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-mexico-investors-face-cyclical-challengesWhile growth in many economies has been sluggish since the Global Financial Crisis, Mexico has enjoyed relatively robust economic growth. In combination with investors’ desire for higher yields, Mexico’s comparative strength has favored it for investments. Yet recently, despite a surge in CPI inflation, the Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years. A...ECRITue, 30 Apr 2013 12:57:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-abenomics-too-little-too-much-or-just-righthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-abenomics-too-little-too-much-or-just-rightThe Bank of Japan has recently doubled down on monetary accommodation – in the form of both quantitative and qualitative easing. Given that Japanese monetary policy has long proven itself to be behind the curve, is Japan’s central bank getting it right this time?ECRI’s latest updates to its separate leading indexes for Japanese inflation and economic growth show them to be in clear trajectories...ECRIMon, 29 Apr 2013 09:48:29 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-nominal-gdp-growth-falls-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-nominal-gdp-growth-falls-againSo, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.5%, how can we be in recession?  Few realize that GDP data for almost all the early quarters of recent recessions have been revised down dramatically. Recall that the GDP release on August 28, 2008 – with the economy eight months inside the Great Recession – revised Q2/08 GDP growth to 3.3% from 1.9%, up from 0.9% in Q1/08. But both of those data points, as well as...ECRIFri, 26 Apr 2013 13:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-gdp-growth-lower-than-expectedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-gdp-growth-lower-than-expectedThe U.S. economy failed to gain as much steam as expected in the first quarter, stoking fear that economic growth could slow further as the impact of automatic government spending cuts kick in. The lackluster growth suggests the Federal Reserve is not ready to take its foot off the pedal just yet.The nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy, a...ECRIFri, 26 Apr 2013 12:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-5A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its highest since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also pulled a touch higher, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 130.6 in the week ended April 19 from 130.5 the previous week. That was originally r...ECRIFri, 26 Apr 2013 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-home-price-growth-losing-momentumhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-home-price-growth-losing-momentumLast April ECRI’s U.S. Leading Home Price Index strongly suggested that U.S. real home price growth would turn up. Indeed real home price growth has risen substantially since then and the new-found housing market strength was seen by many as proof that the economic recovery was intact and set to accelerate. However, last month we highlighted that USLHPI growth had turned down in the prior month...ECRIThu, 25 Apr 2013 09:49:25 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-will-business-spending-pick-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-will-business-spending-pick-upLately, there has been optimism about a U.S. economic revival, in part because of hopes that business investment will pick up. Although business investment growth peaked in early 2012, a slight uptick in the latest data has led some to argue that a new upturn is in the offing.In this context, ECRI’s latest report analyzes the primary determinants of future business investment, revealing whether...ECRIMon, 22 Apr 2013 09:24:44 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-7A measure of future U.S. economic expansion increased to its highest level since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also strengthened, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.6 in the week ended April 12 from a revised 130.2 the previous week, which was originally r...ECRIFri, 19 Apr 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-when-hopes-encounter-realitieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-when-hopes-encounter-realitiesBolstered by better-than-expected readings for many economic releases in March, the prevailing view, both on Wall Street and at the Fed, was that a U.S. economic revival would soon be at hand.In contrast, most of the widely-watched data releases in April came in below consensus expectations, dashing hopes that strength in both the stock and housing markets would translate into an economic recov...ECRIFri, 19 Apr 2013 09:23:29 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-sentiment-signaling-an-upturn-in-eurozone-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-sentiment-signaling-an-upturn-in-eurozone-growthThere has been much debate recently about Eurozone economic prospects. Some posit that Eurozone growth is picking up, while others are more pessimistic, pointing to continued weakness in indicators like retail sales and unemployment. Despite these downbeat data points, one measure of regional sentiment remains in an upturn, leading some to trumpet it as a sign of an impending upturn in Eurozone...ECRIMon, 15 Apr 2013 09:21:30 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-why-recovery-plan-has-falteredhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-why-recovery-plan-has-falteredForget the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Ignore the S&P 500. The records that they’ve recently set, although impressive at first blush, tell us almost nothing about the state of the U.S. economy.Indeed, the U.S. is four years into a rebound from a recession that began in 2007 and ended some 24 months later, and still some of the most important economic metrics -- those that affect individuals m...ECRISat, 13 Apr 2013 09:22:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate stayed flat, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.1 in the week ended April 5 from a revised 129.1 the previous week. The previous figure was originally reported as 129.2.Th...ECRIFri, 12 Apr 2013 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-raw-materials-demand-buoys-chinese-importshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-raw-materials-demand-buoys-chinese-importsThe latest trade figures for China surprised the consensus as exports missed expectations for the first time in four months and imports came in above forecast, leading to an unexpected trade deficit. While concerns over data quality remain, raw materials demand clearly drove much of the increase in imports, a welcome change as slowing Chinese growth hampered raw materials demand in 2012.ECRI’s ...ECRIFri, 12 Apr 2013 09:02:02 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-negative-real-yields-and-business-productivityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-negative-real-yields-and-business-productivityThere has been a lot of debate about recent data releases, showing both “positive” and “negative” indications for the economy. Taking a step back, however, a measure of business productivity growth already reached negative territory in the third quarter of last year as real yields slipped into negative territory. What does this tell us about the economy?ECRI’s latest report examines how busines...ECRITue, 09 Apr 2013 10:28:05 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/achuthan-bartiromo-jobs-recession-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/achuthan-bartiromo-jobs-recession-economic-cycle-researchECRI's Lakshman Achuthan speaks with Maria Bartiromo about the latest jobs report in the context of a recession.ECRISun, 07 Apr 2013 19:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-cyclical-outlook-recent-economic-datahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-cyclical-outlook-recent-economic-dataOn Sunday April 7 Lakshman Achuthan joins "On the Money" with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the cyclical outlook in the context of recent economic data.The interview will air at 11:30 AM on WNBC and also at 7:30 PM on CNBC.ECRISun, 07 Apr 2013 12:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-2A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate also pulled back, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.2 in the week ended March 29 from an unrevised 129.7 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate edged down to 6.2...ECRIFri, 05 Apr 2013 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-employment-growth-hits-new-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-employment-growth-hits-new-lowYear-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to a 19-month low, and household job growth has dropped to an 18-month low.We are now in the Yo-Yo Years as described by ECRI early last year.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares images and notes from early March presentations in Oslo and Chicago.Click here to download the presentation with images and notes on the state of the business cy...ECRIFri, 05 Apr 2013 10:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-fallsU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 104.0 from a downwardly revised 105.3 in February, originally reported as 105.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The downturn in the USFIG indicates a pullback in U.S. inflation pressures," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said...ECRIFri, 05 Apr 2013 09:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-fig-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-fig-risesThe Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 92.3 from January's 91.9, as similar national indicators rose in Italy and Spain but fell in Germany while it was unchanged for France."In February, the EZFIG edged up but stayed near January's 35-month low. Thus, euro zone inflation is likely to ebb further in the months ahead," Lakshman Achu...ECRIFri, 05 Apr 2013 03:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australian-inflation-in-checkhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australian-inflation-in-checkIn its April meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at its lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis. The governor of the RBA stated that earlier monetary easing is already “having an expansionary effect on the economy,” but the inflation outlook “would afford scope to ease policy further,” if necessary.In this context, we examined the latest cyclical movemen...ECRIThu, 04 Apr 2013 17:07:51 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-surprise-mexican-rate-cut-in-contexthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-surprise-mexican-rate-cut-in-contextLast month, the Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2009. Yet, economic data released afterwards showed industrial production and retail sales surging while the jobless rate dropped. As a result, the consensus view is quite upbeat on the Mexican outlook.However, with ongoing weakness in the global economy including a U.S. recession, a key question is wh...ECRITue, 02 Apr 2013 19:38:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-can-germany-hold-the-eurozone-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-can-germany-hold-the-eurozone-upGermany has been the envy of most developed economies because it was the first country to pull out of recession following the Global Financial Crisis. Currently, the consensus view is quite optimistic about the German economic outlook. This comes despite the fact that industrial production has shown negative growth for several months and even GDP shrank in the fourth quarter.Is such weakness in...ECRIMon, 01 Apr 2013 10:38:36 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchanged-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchanged-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady last week, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Thursday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was unchanged at 129.7 in the week ended March 22. That was originally reported as 129.8.The index's annualized growth rate rose to 6.6 pe...ECRIThu, 28 Mar 2013 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-near-term-drivers-of-global-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-near-term-drivers-of-global-growthWith the Eurozone mired in crisis, and economy after economy slipping into recession, opportunities for stronger growth around the world are few and far between. Yet several consensus forecasts are seeing glimmers of a global growth revival in the coming months. If so, given the importance of global trade, this would mean that countries plausibly have more options for a lifeline when their dome...ECRIThu, 28 Mar 2013 09:10:30 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-examining-the-wealth-effect-and-the-housing-recoveryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-examining-the-wealth-effect-and-the-housing-recoveryWith the “wealth effect” taking center stage in recent weeks, there are hopes that a strengthening stock market and rising home prices will translate directly into an economic recovery. The headline retail sales figure and jobs number for February both came in better than the consensus expected, but the underlying numbers may provide reason for concern.In this context, ECRI has just completed a...ECRIMon, 25 Mar 2013 09:04:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-unchangedA measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged last week, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index held steady at 129.8 in the week ended March 15. Last week's figure was originally reported as 129.9.The index's annualized growth rate ro...ECRIFri, 22 Mar 2013 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-carney-leaving-bank-of-canada-constrainedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-carney-leaving-bank-of-canada-constrainedOver the past several months, the Bank of Canada has grappled with a stated desire to increase rates, yet repeatedly, economic growth has disappointed.ECRI’s latest study reveals an additional underlying challenge that Canadian policymakers are wrestling with. As the Bank of Canada’s Mark Carney heads across the pond to head the Bank of England, amid rumblings of a shift in their policy goals t...ECRITue, 19 Mar 2013 10:29:33 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-stock-prices-recessionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-stock-prices-recessions"The U.S. economic reports continue to impress," says Scott Anderson, Chief Economist at Bank of the West, who notes that the data "reveal a resilient private sector economy that accelerated over the first two months of the year, despite the headwinds from higher payroll and personal income taxes." Not even higher gas prices seemed to get in the way of consumers, who are choosing to dip into th...ECRIMon, 18 Mar 2013 12:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-bahamas-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-bahamas-1ECRI principals will be visiting the Bahamas from March 18 - 20 to meet with professional members. ECRIMon, 18 Mar 2013 09:11:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-weekly-leading-index-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-weekly-leading-index-growthA measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, though the annualized growth rate faltered, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 129.9 in the week ended March 8 from a revised 129.5 the previous week. That was originally reported as 129.3.The index's annualiz...ECRIFri, 15 Mar 2013 10:52:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-uneven-global-inflation-pressureshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-uneven-global-inflation-pressuresIn the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the world’s central banks embarked on unprecedented quantitative easing in hopes of shoring up sagging economic growth. But with growth continuing to disappoint, QE continues on, engendering concerns of runaway inflation down the road. In response, many central banks argue that the current slow-growth environment will keep inflation pressures at bay.E...ECRIMon, 11 Mar 2013 10:46:23 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/payroll-jobs-growth-18-month-low-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/payroll-jobs-growth-18-month-low-economic-cycle-researchECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how job growth is not accelerating as almost every commentator is suggesting. Even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low, and year-over-year household jobs growth has fallen to a 16-month low.ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 18:05:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-interview-summaryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-interview-summaryIn a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below.  CNBCCoincident indicators, including GDP, are consistent with recession starting mid 2012Stock prices can rise during recessionPolicy makers targeting market pricesMild vs. severe recessionBloomberg Part 1The ...ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 14:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/seasonal-factor-at-play-in-job-report-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/seasonal-factor-at-play-in-job-report-economic-cycle-researchYear-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. Following this morning’s jobs report we have updated the jobs growth charts in our recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years, that illustrate the role of skewed seasonal factors in the economic data.For a detailed discussion of this issue please see p...ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 09:52:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-price-pressures-pull-backhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-price-pressures-pull-backDespite a recent rise in energy prices, inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain contained, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI US future inflation gauge slipped to 105.6 last month, from 105.8 in January."The February dip in the USFIG is consistent with relatively restrained inflation pressures," says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI directorECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 09:17:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-easeshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-growth-easesA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week although the annualized growth rate weakened, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index increased to 129.3 in the week ended March 1 from a revised 128.4 the previous week. That figure was originally reported as 128.5.The in...ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 09:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-drop-to-35-month-low-econimic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-drop-to-35-month-low-econimic-cycle-researchEurozone inflation is likely to fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in January, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to 92.1 from December's 92.6, as similar national indicators fell in Germany, France and Italy but nudged up in Spain."The EZ...ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 04:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-in-the-yo-yo-yearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-in-the-yo-yo-yearsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares images and notes from recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago.We are now in the Yo-Yo Years as described by ECRI early last year. Meanwhile, even though some economic data seems stronger on the surface, U.S. Nominal GDP growth is recessionary and we are below a "stall speed" measure highlighted by the Fed. And this isn't the first time the stock market has risen...ECRIFri, 08 Mar 2013 01:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-recognitionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-recognitionECRI's Achuthan joins The Daily Ticker to discuss recession recognition light of his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.Stock prices have risen during three of the past 15 recessions, to view the images please see pages 11 - 12.Click here to download the presentation images and notes.ECRIThu, 07 Mar 2013 15:17:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-4ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.To see the referenced velocity of money chart, please see page 16 of the presentation.For the exact Bernanke quote, in reference to using risk assets to create a wealth effect, see page 12.A chart of ECRI's U.S. Leading Home Price Index can be viewed on page seven.Click here to download...ECRIThu, 07 Mar 2013 09:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-3Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.To see a chart of the Fed's GDI stall speed measure, as discussed in the interview, please see page three of the presentation.On page six of the presentation there is a chart showing that year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-mo...ECRIThu, 07 Mar 2013 09:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-2Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg's Tom Keene to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.Click here to download the presentation images and notes.ECRIThu, 07 Mar 2013 09:13:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-recession-yo-yo-years-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-recession-yo-yo-years-interviewLakshman Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.To see a chart of the official coincident indicators used to determine recession dates, including GDP, please see page three of the presentation.Stock prices can rise during recession, please see page twelve.On page 15 of the presentation you can view the operating earnings char...ECRIWed, 06 Mar 2013 16:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-chicagohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-chicagoOn March 4 and 5 ECRI principals will be visiting Chicago to meet with professional members. ECRIMon, 04 Mar 2013 13:53:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-economy-turning-a-cornerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-economy-turning-a-cornerSince 2007, the world’s central banks have flooded the financial system with trillions of dollars in liquidity to combat weaker-than-expected growth and to avert deflation. Repeated stimulus has allayed some observers’ fears, particularly through boosted market prices. But has the Fed started to succeed in its aforementioned goals, or are we already in the midst of a global recession?ECRI’s lat...ECRIFri, 01 Mar 2013 16:40:57 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-falls-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week as the annualized growth rate also declined, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged down to 128.5 in the week ended Feb 22 from a revised 129 the previous week. It was the lowest level since early January.The index's ann...ECRIFri, 01 Mar 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-oslohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-osloOn February 28 and March 1 ECRI principals will be visiting Oslo, Norway to meet with professional members. ECRIThu, 28 Feb 2013 14:11:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-the-u-s-economy-dodged-a-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-the-u-s-economy-dodged-a-recessionLately it seems that all economic releases are coming up roses – even last month’s slightly negative GDP report was widely hailed as the best-looking contraction one would ever see. Similarly, many felt the latest employment report held green shoots for job growth, despite an uptick in the jobless rate and weaker-than-expected payroll job growth. A higher-than-expected PMI number further cheere...ECRIMon, 25 Feb 2013 09:12:56 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 129.1 in the week ended Feb. 15 from 129.7 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 129.6.The index's annual...ECRIFri, 22 Feb 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-an-upturn-in-corporate-debt-growth-imminenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-an-upturn-in-corporate-debt-growth-imminentECRI has just updated its U.S. Leading Credit Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in nonfinancial corporate debt growth.Despite massive Fed easing, following the earlier downturn in the USLCrI, nonfinancial corporate debt growth has been weakening since late 2011, falling to a one-and-a-half-year low in its latest reading. But, with banks easing credit ...ECRITue, 19 Feb 2013 09:24:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-bahamashttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-bahamasECRI principals will be visiting the Bahamas from February 15 - 18 to meet with professional members. ECRIFri, 15 Feb 2013 23:45:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-dips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-dips-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.6 in the week ended Feb. 8, from 130.2 the prior week.The index's annualized growth rate decreased to 8.3 percent fro...ECRIFri, 15 Feb 2013 10:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-chinese-export-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-chinese-export-outlookIn recent years, many have looked to China to be the locomotive of global growth. Thus, the better-than-expected readings in some of its key economic indicators have become part of the revival story for global economic growth.However, the health of the Chinese economy – the world’s largest exporter – also depends on a favorable global economic environment. While the surge in Chinese exports in ...ECRIThu, 14 Feb 2013 09:22:04 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-6A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week, while the annualized growth rate improved to a fresh high of more than 2-1/2-years, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.2 in the week ended Feb 1 from 129.6 the previous  week. That was originally reported...ECRIFri, 08 Feb 2013 10:33:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-bank-of-england-lending-scheme-aims-to-evade-triple-diphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-bank-of-england-lending-scheme-aims-to-evade-triple-dipECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Amid fears of a triple-dip recession in the U.K., the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme , designed to increase credit availability for households and businesses, appears to have taken hold in December...ECRIFri, 08 Feb 2013 09:00:50 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-recession-datehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-japanese-recession-dateToday ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for Japan as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for Japan as April 2011.Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U....ECRIThu, 07 Feb 2013 16:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-unemployment-and-consumer-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-unemployment-and-consumer-spendingWith its unemployment rate holding at a record high of 11.7% in December, joblessness continues to bedevil the Eurozone, which remains mired in recession.Given the persistent labor market weakness faced by the consumer, it makes sense that Eurozone retail sales growth has lingered in negative territory for months. Against this backdrop, ECRI’s latest analysis reviews the cyclical drivers of une...ECRIThu, 07 Feb 2013 09:37:41 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-consumer-spending-prospects-for-brazilhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-consumer-spending-prospects-for-brazilOver the past decade Brazil has propelled over 35 million people into its middle class through dramatic growth and economic change, but the recent consensus view on the Brazilian economy has been muddled with pessimism. A key driver of growth for the South American mainstay has been the consumer, with household consumption accounting for about 60% of the Brazil’s GDP.If the consumer pulls back ...ECRIWed, 06 Feb 2013 09:46:03 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-2A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, though the annualized growth rate rose to its highest level in more than 2-1/2 years, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 129.7 in the week ended Jan 25 from 130.7 the previous week. That was originally reporte...ECRIFri, 01 Feb 2013 10:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-price-pressures-still-rising-in-januaryhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-price-pressures-still-rising-in-januaryEven after the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, inflation pressures picked up at the start of 2013, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge increased to 105.2 last month, from 104.4 in December."While pointing to somewhat higher U.S. inflation pressures, the USFIG has not yet seen a pronounced, pervasive and persi...ECRIFri, 01 Feb 2013 10:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-zone-inflation-pressures-ease-to-34-month-low-economic-cycle-researchhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-zone-inflation-pressures-ease-to-34-month-low-economic-cycle-researchEuro zone inflation is likely to fall as price pressures eased in December to a near three-year low, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to 92.1 from November's 93.2, as similar national indicators fell in Germany and France but nudged up in Italy and Spain."Falling ag...ECRIFri, 01 Feb 2013 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-spanish-consumer-getting-squeezedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-spanish-consumer-getting-squeezedECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.The Spanish inflation rate is only a few months removed from one of its highest readings since the Global Financial Crisis, and remains an albatross for an economy entering its fifth year of recession. With a new law making it easi...ECRIThu, 31 Jan 2013 16:52:41 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-manufacturing-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-manufacturing-outlookThe latest headline for durable goods orders has convinced some observers that the U.S. manufacturing sector is now on a stable road to recovery. However, the less volatile year-over-year percentage change of new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft was rather disappointing.In this context, ECRI’s U.S. Leading Manufacturing Index , which is designed to anticipate turning poin...ECRIThu, 31 Jan 2013 10:00:56 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-and-recession-number-sixhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-and-recession-number-sixIn a recent speech to the Diet, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised the rebirth of the Japanese economy using a strategy that would focus on “a bold monetary policy, a flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy that will encourage greater private-sector investment." That same day, the Japanese Cabinet also forecast that the Japanese economy would grow at 2.5% in 2013. Japanese policyma...ECRIWed, 30 Jan 2013 09:29:05 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-industrial-growth-prospects-international-debt-to-gdp-ratiohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-industrial-growth-prospects-international-debt-to-gdp-ratioWith U.S. fiscal cliff fears fading and concerns about the Eurozone receding, dread has dwindled in the mainstream of late.  Does this shifting perspective represent the economic reality facing many nations globally?ECRI’s long leading indicators reveal the trajectory for economic growth in key countries over the coming months, including the outlook for industrial growth prospects. This growth ...ECRIMon, 28 Jan 2013 08:01:55 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-5A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week, while the annualized growth rate also climbed to put both measures at their highest levels since April 2011, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 130.6 in the week ended Jan 18 from 130.4 the previous  week. The ...ECRIFri, 25 Jan 2013 10:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-unlimited-quantitative-easing-and-the-inflation-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-unlimited-quantitative-easing-and-the-inflation-cycleLast September, the Fed announced that unlimited quantitative easing would continue until the job market situation improves considerably. With that declaration, the Fed went all-in trying to raise inflation expectations with the hope of incentivizing people to make purchases sooner rather than later, thereby boosting near-term economic activity. While the success of this strategy remains in que...ECRIThu, 24 Jan 2013 10:32:20 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-weekly-leading-index-gross-fed-model-gross-domestic-incomehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-weekly-leading-index-gross-fed-model-gross-domestic-incomeWith some of the coincident indicators used to determine official recession dates rising above their mid-2012 highs, there is a popular perception that the U.S. economy avoided recession in 2012, and is poised to improve in the months ahead. Furthermore, growth in ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index has climbed to a three-month high. Does any of this negate ECRI’s recession call?ECRI’s latest report an...ECRISat, 19 Jan 2013 06:32:28 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-againA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week to its highest since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also strengthened, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.4 in the week ended Jan. 11 from a revised 128.1 the previous week, which was origina...ECRIFri, 18 Jan 2013 10:33:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-outlook-for-chinese-real-estatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-outlook-for-chinese-real-estateChinese stocks have rallied in recent in months largely driven by positive news from the housing market, which is crucial to the overall Chinese economy. Residential housing has shown signs of strength with home prices improving across provinces.In mid-2012 ECRI’s Chinese Leading Home Price Index , which predicted that Chinese home prices would firm, also anticipated a rise in the Shenzhen Stoc...ECRIThu, 17 Jan 2013 14:17:48 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-bundesbank-s-jobless-rate-forecast-too-sanguinehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-bundesbank-s-jobless-rate-forecast-too-sanguineThe Bundesbank’s latest forecast shows a darkening outlook for the German economy, as it expects slowing export growth and negative-to-flat GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. However, in an economy where exports account for half of GDP, the German central bank does not expect unemployment to be affected much.ECRI’s analysis determines if the Bundesbank’s see...ECRIFri, 11 Jan 2013 16:43:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-quick-recognition-of-shifts-in-long-term-trendshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-quick-recognition-of-shifts-in-long-term-trendsMany explanations have been put forward for the disappointing growth that followed the Global Financial Crisis in a number of countries, including the theory that longer-term economic growth prospects may have fundamentally changed. In cases like this, it is critical to promptly detect if the economy is experiencing a typical cyclical -- and therefore temporary -- event, or whether there is a f...ECRIWed, 09 Jan 2013 15:20:55 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-where-are-export-prices-headedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-where-are-export-prices-headedIn the U.S., export price inflation has flagged recently, falling to its lowest reading in almost three years. Regarding trade itself, in October, goods exports dropped to its lowest level in almost a year, helping to widen the trade deficit.This is happening on the heels of monetary easing around the globe, which some have hoped would spur the competitiveness of exports. ECRI’s latest study ou...ECRIMon, 07 Jan 2013 10:56:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slips-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth dropped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 126.4 in the week ended Dec. 28 from a revised 127.6 the previous week. That was originally reported as 128.3.The index's a...ECRIFri, 04 Jan 2013 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-2U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.0 from an upwardly revised 102.6 in November, originally reported as 102.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG staying in a rising trend over the past year, U.S. inflation pressures have increased somewhat," ECRI Chief Op...ECRIFri, 04 Jan 2013 09:56:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-remain-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-remain-lowEuro zone inflation could continue to fall as price pressures held steady in November, hovering near June's 27-month low, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends published on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute held at 92.2 in November, as similar national gauges fell in Germany but rose in Italy and Spain. France's ...ECRIFri, 04 Jan 2013 08:44:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-bank-of-korea-receives-mixed-signalshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-bank-of-korea-receives-mixed-signalsECRI has just updated its Korean Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Korean inflation.Korean inflation declined to 1.4% in December, a four-month low. While the Bank of Korea cut rates twice in 2012, inflation remains well below the BoK’s recently tightened target band of 2.5% to 3.5%, which some analysts see as an op...ECRIThu, 03 Jan 2013 17:00:24 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-central-banks-weaker-economieshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-central-banks-weaker-economiesThe transition to 2013 has been stubbornly uncertain so far in terms of U.S. fiscal policy. Monetary policy, on the other hand, has in essence “doubled down” around the world, as central banks pitch in to push back on recession with the tools they have access to. ECRI’s latest report outlines some lesser-known measures of economic activity – revealing surprising shifts that have already taken h...ECRIWed, 02 Jan 2013 09:52:52 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interview-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interview-3ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins MSNBC at 1:30 PM to discuss the ongoing fiscal cliff deliberations in Washington.ECRIMon, 31 Dec 2012 13:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-outlook-us-home-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-outlook-us-home-pricesWith many hoping for sustained U.S. economic growth, climbing home prices have become a key source of optimism that the housing market will bolster the economy. Conversely, others have a view that the housing market has yet to bottom. With the update of ECRI’s Leading Home Price Index, our latest report provides clear direction as to what lies ahead, including whether home prices will continue ...ECRIMon, 31 Dec 2012 09:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-new-united-kingdom-business-cycle-dateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-new-united-kingdom-business-cycle-datesToday ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for the United Kingdom as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for the United Kingdom as May 2011. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a...ECRISat, 29 Dec 2012 07:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-wli-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-wli-risesA measure of future U.S. economic growth improved in the latest week to its highest since August 2011, while the annualized growth rate also accelerated, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week ended Dec. 21 from 127.2 the previous week.The index's annualized g...ECRIFri, 28 Dec 2012 11:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-can-fed-piece-economy-back-togetherhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-can-fed-piece-economy-back-togetherThe Fed recently revised both its methods and “guideposts” for implementing accommodative policy.While some have argued that the weakness in the job market and the overall economy can be countered with central bank intervention, others think that weak growth in the economy, including employment, is more structural in nature and cannot be changed by quantitative easing alone.ECRI’s latest report...ECRISat, 22 Dec 2012 21:19:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-wli-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-wli-ticks-downA measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked lower last week, though the annualized growth rate picked up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 127.2 in the week ended Dec 14 from 127.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 127.7.The index's annualized g...ECRIFri, 21 Dec 2012 11:18:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-korean-inflation-riskshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-korean-inflation-risksIn November the Korean inflation rate fell to a three-month low, dipping below the Bank of Korea’s inflation target of two to four percent. Some market observers, disappointed that the BoK decided not to lower its policy rate further to stimulate the Korean economy, continue to expect more policy easing. At the same time, inflation remains above its August low and the latest decline could just ...ECRITue, 18 Dec 2012 09:55:48 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.7 in the week ended Dec 7 from 126.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 126.8.The index's annualized growth rate cl...ECRIFri, 14 Dec 2012 10:33:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-timing-a-turn-in-eurozone-unemploymenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-timing-a-turn-in-eurozone-unemploymentWith the Eurozone unemployment rate increasing steadily since mid-2011, and reaching a new record high of 11.7% in October, the problem of Eurozone joblessness has proven both persistent and increasingly severe.ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the trajectory of the Eurozone unemployment rate, indicating whether the rising tide of joblessness is set to turn anytime soon.ECRIWed, 12 Dec 2012 15:38:01 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-drought-and-food-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-drought-and-food-pricesAmerican farmers recently sustained the worst drought in decades, afflicting significant portions of the nation’s corn, soybean, and wheat harvest – crops that are staples, through inputs like processed food and livestock feed, of the consumer’s grocery bundle.Some assert that aftershocks of the drought may include a hit to American households through higher food prices, yet others have contend...ECRIMon, 10 Dec 2012 09:23:43 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-official-define-recession-coincident-indicators-geoffrey-moorehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-official-define-recession-coincident-indicators-geoffrey-mooreLakshman Achuthan speaks with Larry Kudlow, who knew ECRI founder, Geoffrey H. Moore. They discuss how many of the indicators used to define official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year.ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 16:51:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-nber-geoffrey-moore-determine-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-nber-geoffrey-moore-determine-recessionBefore there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 21 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definit...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 16:46:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-new-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-future-inflation-new-lowEuro zone price pressures fell in October close to June's 27-month low, easing in three of the bloc's biggest economies, an indicator designed to forecast inflation trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute fell to 93.3 in October from 93.7 in September, as similar national gauges fell in France, Spain and Italy and held steady...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 16:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-coincident-indicators-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-coincident-indicators-1Lakshman talks with Larry Kudlow, who knew ECRI's founder, Geoffrey H. Moore. They discuss how many of the indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates for almost a century have now been falling since mid-year.ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 09:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-27-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-27-month-lowEuro zone price pressures fell in October close to June's 27-month low, easing in three of the bloc's biggest economies, an indicator designed to forecast inflation trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute fell to 93.3 in October from 93.7 in September, as similar national gauges fell in France, Spain and Italy and held steady...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-geoffrey-moore-recession-datehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-geoffrey-moore-recession-dateBefore there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 21 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definit...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 08:55:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-recession-starthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-recession-startFollowing our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing in December 2011. Based on the historical lead times of ECRI’s leading indexes, we concluded that, if it didn’t start in the first quarter of 2012, it was very likely to begin by mid-year. But we also made it clear at the time that you wouldn’t know whether or not we were wrong until the end of 2012. And so it’s interes...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 08:50:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-fig-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-fig-dipsU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 102.5 from an upwardly revised 103.6 in October, originally reported as 103.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its latest dip, the USFIG remains above the lows of the summer," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said i...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 08:49:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, while the annualized growth rate also picked up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 126.8 in the week ended Nov 30 from 126.2 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 126.3.The index's annualized g...ECRIFri, 07 Dec 2012 08:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-recession-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-recession-1Thursday at 7:00PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Larry Kudlow on CNBC to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRIThu, 06 Dec 2012 16:10:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-fifth-recession-in-15-yearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-japan-fifth-recession-in-15-yearsECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Last month, growth concerns prompted the Japanese Cabinet to announce its second stimulus package in as many months, with November’s $10.7 billion package coming on the heels of October’s $5.1 billion stimulus.  If th...ECRIThu, 06 Dec 2012 08:25:06 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-crosscurrents-in-the-u-k-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-crosscurrents-in-the-u-k-economyThe U.K. has been experiencing economic turbulence including two recessions in the past five years, separated by only a brief expansion in 2010. Recently, the third quarter GDP showed positive growth, but many still remain unsure about the U.K.’s economic situation. Some are calling for a “triple-dip” recession, noting that GDP growth has simply been pushed up by one-off events like the Olympic...ECRITue, 04 Dec 2012 09:10:27 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-industrial-budget-office-cbo-projectionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-industrial-budget-office-cbo-projectionIndustrial production is contracting in every G7 economy and all of the BRICS, with the exception of China. Particularly within the G7 economies, these concerted downturns have intensified of late.At the same time, often cited U.S. Congressional Budget Office projections show that real GDP growth will average 4.3% from 2014 through 2017. However, since the start of the century average real GDP ...ECRISat, 01 Dec 2012 08:10:55 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-slipsA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week, though the annualized growth rate pulled back for a fourth week in a row, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.3 in the week ended Nov 23 from 125.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 125.7.The index...ECRIFri, 30 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-update-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins CNN International's Ali Velshi to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRIThu, 29 Nov 2012 13:12:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-recession   ECRIThu, 29 Nov 2012 13:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-coincident-indicatorshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-coincident-indicatorsCNN's Ali Velshi discusses ECRI's recession call and reviews the official recession indicators.ECRIThu, 29 Nov 2012 10:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interview-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interview-2Thursday at 9:45 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on CNN International to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRIThu, 29 Nov 2012 09:41:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-underwayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-underwayIndicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been weakening since mid-2012.ECRIThu, 29 Nov 2012 09:36:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-recessionThursday at 6:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRIThu, 29 Nov 2012 06:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-upcoming-interview-recessionThursday at 6:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRIWed, 28 Nov 2012 09:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-labor-market-paradoxhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-labor-market-paradoxOver a recent two-month period, the jobless rate fell half a percentage point, bolstering the belief that the U.S. economy has dodged recession. At the same time, job growth remains weaker than in any other expansion on record. How is it possible for anemic job growth to fuel such a drop in the unemployment rate?ECRI’s research investigates the cyclical and structural drivers of labor force gro...ECRIWed, 28 Nov 2012 09:05:40 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-wli-growth-fallsA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 2-week high in the latest week even as the annualized growth rate decreased to an 8-week low, a research group said on Wednesday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.7 in the week ended Nov. 16 from 125.2 the previous week. That was its highest since N...ECRIWed, 21 Nov 2012 11:06:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-fallsA measure of future U.S. economic growth decreased to an eight-week low in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate also fell, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 125.4 in the week-ended Nov. 9 from 126.1 the previous   week. That was the lowest level since Sept. 14....ECRIFri, 16 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-u-k-home-price-outlookU.K. home prices have been drifting down for some time, and currently stand some 20% below their 2007 peak. In the years since, the U.K. economy has been dogged by periods of negative GDP growth, serious long-term unemployment, and ongoing uncertainty stemming from the Eurozone crisis. In line with the stream of generally weak U.K. economic data, most housing experts expect the downward drift i...ECRIMon, 12 Nov 2012 10:25:15 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-drops-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-drops-1A measure of future U.S. economic expansion hit a five-week low last week, as did the index's annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 126.2 in the week ended Nov. 2 from 126.6 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate dipped to 5.1 percent fro...ECRIFri, 09 Nov 2012 10:34:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-san-francisco-visit-memberhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-san-francisco-visit-memberOn November 7 ECRI principals will be visiting San Francisco to meet with professional members.ECRIWed, 07 Nov 2012 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-outlook-for-korean-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-outlook-for-korean-economyECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.On the heels of news that Korean export growth fell 5.6% in the third quarter, the Bank of Korea reported last week that third quarter GDP growth expanded at its weakest pace in three years, growing at just 1.6%. Howeve...ECRIFri, 02 Nov 2012 16:51:33 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-downA measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked lower last week, while the annualized growth rate also cooled slightly, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged down to 126.6 in the week ended Oct 26 from 126.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 126.8.The index's a...ECRIFri, 02 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-dipsU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 103.5 from an upwardly revised 103.6 in September, originally reported as 103.4, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its latest downtick, the USFIG remains close to its September high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan s...ECRIFri, 02 Nov 2012 09:47:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-inflation-pressures-remain-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-inflation-pressures-remain-lowEuro zone inflation should fall in the coming months, according to an indicator designed to forecast trends in inflation, which showed price pressures eased in September to close to June's 27-month low.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute , fell to 93.4 from 94.2 in August, data showed on Friday. Similar national gauges rose in Spain and Italy,...ECRIFri, 02 Nov 2012 05:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-vat-hits-spanish-consumerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-vat-hits-spanish-consumerECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.With September’s increase in the value-added tax helping push the inflation rate to a 17-month high in October, Spain now has spiking inflation to worry about. Furthermore, year-over-year retail sales fell 11% in September.The ESFI...ECRIThu, 01 Nov 2012 16:47:05 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-global-sectoral-synchronizationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-assessing-global-sectoral-synchronizationYears ago ECRI demonstrated that global interdependence had resulted in fairly synchronized economic cycles, particularly since the 1990s, stemming from increasing financial and trade linkages. Still, with the U.S. showing some “better-than-expected” economic releases, the decoupling meme has reemerged.Expanding on our earlier research of global economic synchronization, ECRI has just completed...ECRIWed, 31 Oct 2012 11:04:11 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-london-visit-membershttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-london-visit-membersOn October 29 and 30 ECRI principals will be visiting London to meet with professional members.ECRITue, 30 Oct 2012 13:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-toronto-visit-memberhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-toronto-visit-memberOn October 29 ECRI principals will be visiting Toronto to meet with professional members.ECRIMon, 29 Oct 2012 09:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-2A measure of future U.S. economic expansion edged up last week, though the annualized growth rate declined for the first time since June, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  gained slightly to 126.8 in the week ended Oct. 19 from 126.6 the previous week.The prior week's number was ...ECRIFri, 26 Oct 2012 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-industrial-growth-and-chinese-stimulushttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-industrial-growth-and-chinese-stimulusThe latest purchasing managers survey data – showing upticks in China and the U.S. – sparked hope that perhaps the downturns in these two economies had run their courses, though weakness in Europe tampered expectations. Meanwhile, markets continue to hope for new Chinese stimulus.ECRI’s latest report outlines clearly whether this recent manufacturing data heralds a change in the direction of in...ECRIFri, 26 Oct 2012 09:23:30 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-us-home-price-outlookThe housing market crash, which preceded the Great Recession and sparked a meltdown in financial markets in 2008, has long been a serious drag on the economy. Much of the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy in recent years has been aimed at propping up the housing market, though with limited effect.Now, more than three years after the Great Recession ended, positive housing data is fueling h...ECRIWed, 24 Oct 2012 11:18:53 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-dropsA measure of future U.S. economic growth declined in the latest week, although the annualized growth rate rose to its highest since May 2011, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to a two week low at 126.7 in the week ended Oct 12 from 127.6 the previous week. That was original...ECRIFri, 19 Oct 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-review-recession-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-review-recession-callSome recently released economic data has been better than the consensus had expected including the drop in the jobless rate in September. Meanwhile, the housing market has been showing signs of improvement, while equity markets have been rising and consumer confidence has spiked. All of this positive news is fueling hope that stronger consumer spending will help to power economic growth in comi...ECRIFri, 19 Oct 2012 09:28:29 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-2A measure of future U.S. economic expansion pushed higher last week, while the annualized growth rate rose to its loftiest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  increased to 127.7 in the week ended Oct. 5 from a revised 126.2 the previous week. The prior we...ECRIFri, 12 Oct 2012 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-taiwan-export-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-taiwan-export-prospectsIn August, Taiwan’s official GDP forecast for 2012 was revised down for the eighth time this year. Since exports account for around 75% of Taiwanese GDP it is helpful to understand the cyclical risks to Taiwanese export growth.In this context, ECRI’s Taiwanese Leading Exports Index , which anticipates cyclical turning points in Taiwanese exports, plays an important role. The growth rate of the ...ECRIThu, 11 Oct 2012 16:30:55 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-canadian-exports-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-canadian-exports-outlookRecent data for Canadian exports have indicated weakened conditions for that nation: not only has the trade deficit surged to its highest level on record, but Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S., by far its largest export destination, shriveled to its lowest reading in almost two years.With a global economic slowdown underway, many wonder whether these developments are signs of a more sustaine...ECRIWed, 10 Oct 2012 14:46:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-german-export-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-german-export-growth-prospectsSince the spring of 2010, German export growth has been in a cyclical downswing, which is a discouraging trend for an economy where exports have equaled about 50% of GDP in recent years. Therefore, many were pleasantly surprised by the recent uptick in year-over-year German export growth.ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the likely trajectory of German export growth, indicating whether the recen...ECRITue, 09 Oct 2012 10:27:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-dipsA measure of future U.S. economic expansion eased modestly last week though the annualized growth rate continued to climb, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 126.3 in the week ended Sept. 28 from a revised 126.6 the previous week. The previous week's number was origin...ECRIFri, 05 Oct 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gauge-1U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 103.4 from an upwardly revised 101.0 in August, originally reported as 100.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG jumped in September to an 18-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, U.S. infl...ECRIFri, 05 Oct 2012 09:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-uk-future-inflation-gauge-subdued-fighttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-uk-future-inflation-gauge-subdued-figECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.U.K. CPI inflation has more than halved over the past year, but remains stubbornly above the Bank of England’s 2% target. At the moment, the consensus expects the BoE to expand its bond-purchasing program in November. While man...ECRIFri, 05 Oct 2012 05:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-august-future-gauge-fighttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-august-future-gauge-figEuro zone inflationary pressures stayed weak in August despite increasing a tad from the previous month, suggesting inflation could continue to fall, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge inched up to 94.0 in August from 93.8 in July.'While the EZFIG increased in August, it stayed well below last year's highs and remains near June's 27...ECRIFri, 05 Oct 2012 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-a-turning-point-for-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-a-turning-point-for-japanECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.While the Bank of Japan’s mid-September announcement to expand its asset-purchase program was not anticipated by the consensus, recent data seem to support the BoJ’s action. Last week’s data releases showed Japanese i...ECRIThu, 04 Oct 2012 16:28:41 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-the-chinese-cyclical-downturn-overhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-is-the-chinese-cyclical-downturn-overWith second quarter year-over-year GDP growth falling to a three-year low, the Chinese slowdown, which ECRI has been predicting all year, has proven to be protracted and severe. As a result, hopes that China would be the locomotive of growth for the troubled global economy have been dashed, but, more recently the People’s Bank of China also introduced a new round of monetary stimulus in an effo...ECRITue, 02 Oct 2012 09:17:30 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-money-pours-down-no-wonder-stocks-are-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-money-pours-down-no-wonder-stocks-are-upThe markets are getting plenty of help from the world’s big central banks. Will it be enough to keep the current rally going?The overall economy is sluggish at best, and unemployment has remained above 8 percent since early 2009. Yet despite a decline last week, stock investors have been on a roll. In the three months ended on Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 5.8 percent. In E...ECRISun, 30 Sep 2012 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-growth-rate-cycle-peak-switzerlandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-growth-rate-cycle-peak-switzerlandWe have recently updated the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Switzerland as October 2010.You can download the complete international history of business and growth rate cycle dates from ECRI's cycle chronologies page.ECRISun, 30 Sep 2012 05:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-usa-sind-mitten-in-einer-rezessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-usa-sind-mitten-in-einer-rezessionNach starken geldpolitischen Interventionen der grossen Zentralbanken der Welt boomen die Börsen. Die bekannten amerikanischen Aktienindizes sind nicht mehr weit von den Allzeithochs entfernt, die sie noch kurz vor der Krise erreicht hatten. Mit der Realwirtschaft habe das jedoch wenig zu tun, erklärt Lakshman Achuthan.Der Manager und Mitbegründer des aufgrund seiner bisher recht präzisen Progn...ECRIFri, 28 Sep 2012 14:06:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-up-1A measure of future U.S. economic expansion continued to improve last week, and the annualized growth rate reached its highest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 126.7 in the week ended Sept. 21 from a revised 125.3 the previous week. That was origina...ECRIFri, 28 Sep 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-industrial-growth-forecasthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-industrial-growth-forecastTo the surprise of many, industrial growth around the world has kept falling – a development that ECRI predicted in the early spring. However, many have been caught off-guard not only by the slowing itself, but by how widespread this weakness has been, leaving few economies untouched. Today, hopes for the global economy hinge on a cyclical revival in industrial production. Our latest report upd...ECRIFri, 28 Sep 2012 09:16:15 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-forces-on-inflation-and-deflationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-cyclical-forces-on-inflation-and-deflationThe 1970s experience of stagflation not only revealed that weak economic growth does not automatically translate to low inflation, but also led our research group to determine that that inflation moves in cycles distinct in timing from those in economic growth. Since then, ECRI has developed leading indexes to anticipate inflation cycle peaks and troughs for ten economies around the globe.Given...ECRIMon, 24 Sep 2012 09:29:08 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth climbed last week, while the annualized growth rate rose to its highest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 125.4 in the week ended Sept 14 from 124.7 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 124.9.Th...ECRIFri, 21 Sep 2012 10:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-qeternity-and-the-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-qeternity-and-the-business-cycleLast week, the Fed announced an aggressive plan of ongoing monetary accommodation aimed at reviving weak labor market conditions. Since then, the debate has been raging. Will QE3 “help nudge” the U.S. economy towards higher growth or is it a recipe for higher long-term inflation?ECRI’s latest analysis of the long-run cyclical dynamics of U.S. growth and inflation alongside such unprecedented st...ECRIFri, 21 Sep 2012 09:11:18 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-commodity-currency-divergencehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-commodity-currency-divergenceBetween the crisis in Europe and the near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Japan, investors have sought out currencies underpinned by commodity exports.ECRI’s latest study reveals a marked divergence that has recently arisen between three such currencies: the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone, and the Russian ruble. Our latest study shows how varying sensitivity to global economic curre...ECRIThu, 20 Sep 2012 09:52:27 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-where-is-chinese-inflation-headedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-where-is-chinese-inflation-headedAfter easing since last summer, Chinese inflation ticked up in August on rising food prices. Thus, the consensus view has shifted in a direction suggesting that China’s monetary policy options are now more limited than they appeared last month, when Chinese inflation fell to a two-and-a-half-year low.However, beyond the official headline inflation number, the data offer important details about ...ECRITue, 18 Sep 2012 09:24:29 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-7A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week, rising to its highest level in four months, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 124.9 in the week ended Sept 7 from an upwardly revised 124.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.7.The index's a...ECRIFri, 14 Sep 2012 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-the-2012-recession-are-we-there-yethttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-the-2012-recession-are-we-there-yetIt has been almost a year since we predicted a recession. Back in December, we went on to specify the time frame for it to begin: if not by the first quarter of the year, then by mid-2012. But we also said at the time that the recession would not be evident before the end of the year. In other words, nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that w...ECRIThu, 13 Sep 2012 11:41:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-updateNine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession.ECRIThu, 13 Sep 2012 11:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-tv-interview-lakshman-achuthanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/economic-cycle-research-tv-interview-lakshman-achuthanECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg TV at 6:20 AM on Thursday, Sep. 13. ECRIThu, 13 Sep 2012 09:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-a-different-look-at-the-employment-situationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-a-different-look-at-the-employment-situationLast week’s jobs report surprised the consensus to the downside, revealing for some a sense of weakness that was unexpected in the U.S. labor market.Aside from recent monthly numbers, ECRI’s latest study underscores structural changes in employment dynamics, which will impact the jobs market in addition to its current cyclical moves.ECRIMon, 10 Sep 2012 10:44:24 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/vienna-meetingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/vienna-meetingsECRI principals will visit Vienna to meet with professional members on September 5 - 7, 2012.ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-index-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.7 in the week ended Aug. 31 from 123.5 the prior week.The index's annualized growth rate improved to 1.0 percent in the m...ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2012 10:37:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-1In recent weeks, several key coincident indicators have surprised the consensus to the upside, bolstering the belief that the U.S. economy has dodged recession. Even though the latest releases may show increases, earlier data have almost uniformly been revised downward, a reality largely ignored by many. For example, after revisions, there is a net gain of only 55,000 jobs in today’s payroll jo...ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2012 09:52:02 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gaugehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-us-future-inflation-gaugeU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 100.6 from a downwardly revised 100.8 in July, originally reported as 100.9, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG remains in a cyclical downswing. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures continue to trend downward," ECRI Chief Operations Officer L...ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2012 09:46:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-deflation-bank-of-japanhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-deflation-bank-of-japanECRI has just updated its Japanese Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Japanese inflation.As deflation reemerges with the level of the Japanese CPI continuing its fall in July, there is growing concern that economic growth will contract in the second half of 2012. Given that the near-zero benchmark rate limits the Ban...ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2012 09:18:23 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-stay-weakhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-eurozone-inflation-pressures-stay-weakInflationary pressures in the euro zone remained weak in July, suggesting inflation would fall in the coming months, according to an indicator designed to forecast cyclical trends in inflation.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge nudged up to 94.1 in July from June's 27-month low of 93.2, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.Germany was the only country in the bloc's big four whi...ECRIFri, 07 Sep 2012 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-business-cycle-trough-new-zealandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-business-cycle-trough-new-zealandWith data revisions now complete, we can determine that the most recent business cycle trough date for New Zealand was May 2009.Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder ...ECRIThu, 06 Sep 2012 10:20:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-wto-russian-industrial-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-wto-russian-industrial-growthECRI has just updated its Russian Leading Industrial Production Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in Russian industrial growth.After Russia recently gained full membership into the World Trade Organization , the nation’s Deputy Economy Minister, Andrei Klepach, announced higher forecasts for industrial output growth in 2012 and 2013. This is somewh...ECRIWed, 05 Sep 2012 09:43:01 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/indian-economy-turning-the-cornerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/indian-economy-turning-the-cornerWith second quarter GDP growth, despite a minor uptick, staying lower than during the worst of the Global Financial Crisis, the Indian economy remains in a deep economic slowdown. Yet, consumer price inflation remains stubbornly high, with food price inflation staying in double digits. India has long been considered a domestically-driven economy, but its openness to the global economy has incre...ECRITue, 04 Sep 2012 09:18:59 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-ticks-upA measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 123.6 in the week ended Aug. 24 from 123.3 the prior week. The index's annualized growth rate improved to +0.6 percent in t...ECRIFri, 31 Aug 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-china-slows-as-expected-but-what-comes-next-bricshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-china-slows-as-expected-but-what-comes-next-bricsOver the past few years, and especially as other economies have stumbled, it became an article of faith that emerging markets, in particular China, would manage to drive global growth. With China responsible for about a fifth of the world’s industrial output, such hope is understandable.Lately though, there has been a perceived shudder of weakness in Chinese economic indicators, notably for GDP...ECRIWed, 29 Aug 2012 10:42:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-call-revisionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-call-revisionWie sich die Zeiten doch ändern: Wenn die amerikanische Konjunktur einst die dynamische Lokomotive der Weltwirtschaft war, so hat sie sich inzwischen in eine alte, rostige Zugmaschine verwandelt. Zwar wächst die amerikanische Wirtschaft noch, im ersten Quartal mit 2,0% und im zweiten Quartal mit 1,5%, doch manche Beobachter fürchten, die USA könnten in der zweiten Jahreshälfte in eine milde Rez...ECRIFri, 24 Aug 2012 16:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-risesA measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved slightly, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged up to 123.3 in the week ended August 17 from a revised 123.0 the prior week. That was originally reported as 122.8.The...ECRIFri, 24 Aug 2012 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-the-u-s-economy-turned-the-cornerhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-has-the-u-s-economy-turned-the-cornerWith recent U.S. economic data showing better-than-expected readings, the markets and consensus are increasingly upbeat about the economic outlook, including a belief that the U.S. economy has dodged a recession. A number of key coincident data, in particular July’s payroll job gains, are used to make this case.However, is this view warranted? ECRI’s latest analysis of the U.S. cyclical outlook...ECRIMon, 20 Aug 2012 09:27:24 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-5A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week, while the annualized growth rate improved but still remained in negative territory, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 122.8 in the week ended Aug 10 from 122.5 the previous week. The index's annualized growth ra...ECRIFri, 17 Aug 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate remained at a nine-week high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 122.5 in the week ended August 3 from 122.1 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 122.2.The ind...ECRIFri, 10 Aug 2012 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-chinese-home-price-outlookThanks to an encouraging June reading for Chinese home price growth, the consensus is now more optimistic that Chinese home price growth will recover in the months ahead. The rise is commonly attributed in part to monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China, which has cut interest rates since early June to stimulate the economy. However, the outlook for Chinese home price growth had already i...ECRIThu, 09 Aug 2012 09:24:48 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-influence-bank-of-englandhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-inflation-influence-bank-of-englandIn the wake of the Bank of England’s decision last month to renew quantitative easing, many saw U.K. CPI growth, which recently fell to a 31-month low, as a key factor. However, with weak economic growth persisting while inflation still remains above the BoE’s 2% target, the U.K.’s central bank faces the dilemma of promoting growth despite too high inflation.ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the...ECRIWed, 08 Aug 2012 11:45:41 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-low-inflation-helps-germans-not-rest-of-eurozonehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-low-inflation-helps-germans-not-rest-of-eurozoneECRI has just updated its German Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in German inflation.With German inflation falling to 1.7%, German consumer confidence surveys have improved of late despite the ongoing weakness in the Eurozone. The German inflation rate is also low relative to the Eurozone as a whole, where inflation ...ECRIMon, 06 Aug 2012 10:08:17 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.2 in the week ended July 27 from 122.7 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 122.8.The index's annualized growth rat...ECRIFri, 03 Aug 2012 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-inflation-gauge-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-inflation-gauge-risesU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.9 from a downwardly revised 100.7 in June, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its latest uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures continue to be fairly restraine...ECRIFri, 03 Aug 2012 10:14:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-inflation-price-pressure-new-low-germany-france-italy-spainhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-euro-zone-inflation-price-pressure-new-low-germany-france-italy-spainPrice pressures in the euro zone fell to a 27-month low in June, easing in all four of the bloc's biggest economies, according to an indicator by the Economic Cycle Research Institute designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation.German, French, Italian and Spanish June future inflation guages fell, pushing down the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge to 93.2 from 94.8 in May, ECR...ECRIFri, 03 Aug 2012 04:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australia-leading-index-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australia-leading-index-1 ECRI has just updated its Australian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Australia recently celebrated its 21st consecutive year of economic expansion, and the country’s low interest, inflation and unemployment rates have its policymakers content, with Treasurer Wayne Swan calling the c...ECRIWed, 01 Aug 2012 21:19:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-leading-index-industrial-commodityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-leading-index-industrial-commoditySince the economic reforms in the 1990s, Russia has moved toward a globally integrated economy from an isolated, centrally planned one. As a resource-rich country, Russia’s fortunes are closely tied to commodity prices and therefore the ups and downs of global industrial growth.Amid an unfolding global economic slowdown, ECRI’s new Russian Leading Industrial Production Index, which is designed ...ECRITue, 31 Jul 2012 09:07:05 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-growth-rate-cycle-peak-russia-south-africahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-growth-rate-cycle-peak-russia-south-africaToday ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Russia and South Africa.ECRI recently announced the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. The addition of Russia further enhances our real-time global cyclical monitoring framework.Click here fo...ECRIMon, 30 Jul 2012 10:08:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-economy-seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees-fresh-data-pointshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-economy-seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees-fresh-data-pointsWhen trying to assess the macro state of the global economy, most know it is difficult to see the forest for the trees, particularly with so much information buffeting opinion one way or another. The consensus is prone to use the  “freshest” data points, bit by bit, to form a broader picture of the global economy. This is often done without an overarching framework to make sense of seemingly co...ECRIFri, 27 Jul 2012 11:09:56 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-2A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.8 in the week ended July 20 from 121.8 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 121.9.The index's annualized growth rate ro...ECRIFri, 27 Jul 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-leading-index-bricshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-russia-leading-index-brics ECRI announces the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. The addition of Russia further enhances our real-time global cyclical monitoring framework.To understand national economic cycles increasingly requires an appreciation of international cyclical dyna...ECRIThu, 26 Jul 2012 15:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-what-ails-jobs-growth-happened-a-long-time-agohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-what-ails-jobs-growth-happened-a-long-time-agoAlthough four million net new jobs have been added during the U.S. employment revival, there is near-universal disappointment in the labor market because more than twice as many jobs were lost during the downturn. Moreover, ongoing jobs weakness is in direct contrast to the “V-shaped” recovery from the Great Recession that many expected.ECRI’s analysis of the patterns of job losses and gains in...ECRIWed, 25 Jul 2012 09:23:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-start-datehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-start-dateJust a couple of months ago, the prevailing consensus was that the U.S. economy would forge ahead despite Europe’s woes. More recently, many economists have begun to change their forecast, adopting a more pessimistic view of the economy.ECRI’s co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, developed the first-ever leading indicators of recession and recovery more than six decades ago based on the key drivers o...ECRIMon, 23 Jul 2012 08:58:48 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-1A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 121.9 in the week ended July 13 from 122.9 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 123.2.The index's annualized growth ra...ECRIFri, 20 Jul 2012 10:32:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-youth-job-crisishttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-global-youth-job-crisisHigh youth unemployment is increasingly becoming a global phenomenon, with youth joblessness rising above 50% in countries like Greece and Spain, while in other developed economies it is well into the double digits. ECRI first highlighted this crisis in the spring of 2011. Since then, youth joblessness has continued to grow around the world.In this context, ECRI has just completed an in-depth s...ECRIThu, 19 Jul 2012 09:03:38 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-consumers-save-the-german-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-consumers-save-the-german-economyThe Bundesbank raised its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.6% in June partly on the expectation of strong domestic consumption. With government spending set near 2011’s level, the bank is counting on the German consumer as a driver of growth, even though household consumption growth increased only marginally in the first quarter of 2012. ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies if the German con...ECRIMon, 16 Jul 2012 11:10:06 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-recessionIN the middle of a hot summer, the last thing anyone needs is more bad news about the economy.Mountain breezes and ocean waves, ice-cold beer and frosty ice cream — these refreshing things bring a smile when the temperature rises. But bleak economic reports? No one really wants to hear about them.Yet the unpleasant news has been pouring in anyway, and not just from the usual trouble spots, like...ECRISun, 15 Jul 2012 08:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-indexhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-indexA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to an eight-week high in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate rose to a five-week high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.2 in the week ended July 6 from 121.9 the previous  week, the highest level since May 11, ...ECRIFri, 13 Jul 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australia-leading-indexhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/economic-cycle-research-australia-leading-indexThe stronger-than-expected Australian export figures for May have bolstered confidence in the Australian economy’s ability to withstand the global economic headwinds. Particularly, record Chinese imports raised hopes that the Australian economy could escape unscarred from the current global economic turmoil.Despite these developments Australian export growth has slowed considerably from its mid...ECRIFri, 13 Jul 2012 08:52:33 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-call-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-call-1It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun.ECRITue, 10 Jul 2012 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interviewAt 7:00 AM on Tuesday July 10 Lakshman Achuthan will join Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss the cyclical outlook. ECRITue, 10 Jul 2012 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-economic-cycle-research-lakshman-achuthan-interview-1At 3:00 PM on Tuesday July 10 Lakshman Achuthan will join Maria Bartiromo on CNBC's Closing Bell to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRITue, 10 Jul 2012 06:59:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-the-threat-from-a-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-the-threat-from-a-recessionAn economic downturn would strike a big blow to the raw-materials sector.Investors in commodities need to watch out.Fresh data show the U.S. economy is weakening. The economy added a paltry 80,000 jobs in June, not enough to keep up with population growth. Earlier last week, we learned the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. Other indicators have been equ...ECRISat, 07 Jul 2012 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-weekly-leading-index-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-weekly-leading-index-ticks-upA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, as did the annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 121.9 in the week ended June 29, from 121.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.5.The index's annualized grow...ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2012 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-future-inflation-gauge-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-future-inflation-gauge-slipsU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dropped to 101.2 from an unrevised 102.3 in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With its latest dip, the USFIG has dropped further below last year's cyclical high. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures are clearly in retreat," ECRI Chief Operations Officer La...ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2012 09:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-26-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-institute-eurozone-future-inflation-gauge-26-month-lowInflationary pressures in the euro zone fell to a 26-month low in May, easing in each of its four biggest economies, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical inflation trends.The future inflation gauge for Germany, France, Italy and Spain fell in May, pushing the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge to 94.9 from 95.4 in April, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."The E...ECRIFri, 06 Jul 2012 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/brazil-s-path-to-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/brazil-s-path-to-growth ECRI has just updated its Brazilian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.With Brazil’s economy having slowed dramatically from its 7.5% rate of growth in 2010, policymakers have been cutting rates and enacting stimulus since last year in an attempt to boost growth. In April, the governme...ECRITue, 03 Jul 2012 09:06:49 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-growth-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-growth-ticks-downA measure of future U.S. economic growth increased in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to an 18-week low, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 121.5 in the week ended June 22 from 121.2 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 121.3.The index...ECRIFri, 29 Jun 2012 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/shifting-global-industrial-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/shifting-global-industrial-outlookGlobal industrial growth has indeed been moderating as shown by recent weakness in related coincident data. In fact, late last year ECRI forecast a global industrial slowdown when at the time there was a prevailing perception that the U.S. economy would forge ahead despite Europe’s crisis. While this optimistic consensus view has begun to dim, ECRI’s long leading indexes for global industrial g...ECRIThu, 28 Jun 2012 09:27:10 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/u-s-construction-sector-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/u-s-construction-sector-growth-prospectsWith strong readings for housing starts and building permits, hopes are rising that construction sector growth will remain healthy in the months ahead.To assess whether the construction sector can lead the way for more economic growth, it is useful to consult ECRI’s U.S. Leading Construction Index . The USLCI anticipates turning points in construction sector growth and from its latest reading t...ECRIWed, 27 Jun 2012 09:31:52 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-dropshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-dropsA measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate hit a 17-week low, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 121.3 in the week ended June 15 from 121.8 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 121.9.The index's annualize...ECRIFri, 22 Jun 2012 10:34:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/clarifying-where-we-are-in-the-business-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/clarifying-where-we-are-in-the-business-cycleA shiver of foreboding moved through the consensus earlier this month as the latest jobs data confirmed for the mainstream that renewed job market weakness was more than a “blip,” a realization that ECRI has been predicting for some months now.Moving beyond the broad labor market downtrend, ECRI’s latest report presents clear cyclical patterns within the jobs data that underlay the overall move...ECRIThu, 21 Jun 2012 10:18:52 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-growth-fallshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-growth-fallsA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 121.9 in the week ended June 8 from 121.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.6. The index's annualized ...ECRIFri, 15 Jun 2012 10:35:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/china-s-export-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/china-s-export-outlookThe first rate cut since 2008 and further loosening of banks’ lending and deposit rates by the People’s Bank of China provide further indications that the Chinese economy may have slowed more than Chinese policymakers had bargained for when they clamped on the brakes in 2011. Part of the story is exports growth, which had long been one of the main drivers of the Chinese economy.In coming months...ECRIThu, 14 Jun 2012 09:47:17 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-drops-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-drops-againA measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.6 in the week ended June 1 from 122.3 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 2.0 percent f...ECRIFri, 08 Jun 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/oslohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/osloECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.ECRIMon, 04 Jun 2012 17:13:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-ticks-upU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 102.3 from an upwardly revised 101.4 in April, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“Though the USFIG increased in its latest reading, it remains below last year’s cyclical high. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures are stil...ECRIFri, 01 Jun 2012 11:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-12A measure of future U.S. economic growth weakened in the latest week to the lowest level in nearly five months, while the annualized growth rate also faltered, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.4 in the week ended May 25 from 123.0 the previous week. That was originall...ECRIFri, 01 Jun 2012 10:33:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-at-25-month-low-in-aprilhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-inflation-pressures-at-25-month-low-in-aprilPrice pressures in the euro zone fell to a 25-month low in April, easing in all four core countries, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , fell to 96.0 in April from 98.2 in March, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."Euro zone inflation pressures remain in a clear cyclical downswing," said Lakshman Achutha...ECRIFri, 01 Jun 2012 09:43:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/assessing-economic-risks-in-canadahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/assessing-economic-risks-in-canada In contrast to many countries that are looking for ways to bolster economic growth, the OECD suggests that Canada should now raise their short-term interest rates. However, with mounting uncertainty in Europe and the U.S., and slowing economic growth in China, is this a good idea for an export-dependent economy? Furthermore, worries about a possible Canadian housing bubble are also spreading.I...ECRIThu, 31 May 2012 09:24:54 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/more-signs-of-global-economic-stresshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/more-signs-of-global-economic-stress Although the consensus is roiling amid “new” concerns that Chinese growth is facing a significant downturn, ECRI’s forward-looking Chinese leading indexes have been predicting the looming weakness for some time.Our latest update reveals the direction that Chinese growth and inflation will take in coming months, not to mention the implications of a few cyclical nuances that have emerged – many ...ECRITue, 29 May 2012 09:24:39 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-drops-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-drops-5A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week, while the annualized growth rate also waned, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  slipped to 123.1 in the week ended May 18 from 124.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 124.5. The index's annualized growth r...ECRIFri, 25 May 2012 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/u-s-job-growth-prospectshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/u-s-job-growth-prospectsStronger U.S. jobs growth earlier this year had many hoping for a sustained economic recovery. Instead, U.S. job growth has weakened since its February peak alongside other disappointing economic data. As a result, the overall mood regarding recovery has dimmed a bit lately. Regardless, the consensus still believes that job growth will firm in months ahead.In this context, it is useful to exami...ECRIThu, 24 May 2012 08:06:22 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/drivers-of-inflation-and-interest-rateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/drivers-of-inflation-and-interest-ratesAsynchronous recessions among major world economies in the second half of the 1990s allowed the U.S. to enjoy low inflation and healthy growth, as the Fed was able to keep interest rates low in the context of imported disinflation. Currently, however, inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, while economic growth is clearly slowing. ECRI has just completed a new study on the direction of inflati...ECRIMon, 21 May 2012 09:41:48 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-15http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-15 A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 124.5 in the week ended May 11 from an unrevised 125.4 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate rose to 0.4 perce...ECRIFri, 18 May 2012 10:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-the-fed-save-the-dayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-the-fed-save-the-day The optimism about the U.S. economy prevalent less than two months ago has given way to a sense of foreboding.Almost on cue, the debate is returning to the potential for more quantitative easing by major central banks as a way of shoring things up. But is this realistic?ECRI’s latest analysis, based on our array of cyclical indexes of growth and inflation, shows just how effective such actions...ECRIFri, 18 May 2012 09:38:49 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/rising-gdp-doesn-t-rule-out-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/rising-gdp-doesn-t-rule-out-recession Yes, U.S. GDP is still rising, according to the latest reports. But that doesn’t mean we’ve dodged a new recession.Sound surprising? What most people don’t understand is that recessions often begin when gross domestic product is still showing positive growth.Four of the past six recessions started during a quarter when GDP was growing, as did 72% of all recessions in the past 94 years[1].How c...ECRIFri, 11 May 2012 11:29:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-growth-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-growth-ticks-downA measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, but the annualized growth rate remained in negative territory after a downward revision to the previous week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 125.4 in the week ended May 4 from 124.6 the previous week. That w...ECRIFri, 11 May 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/free-market-economies-have-business-cycleshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/free-market-economies-have-business-cyclesMany think recessions are some sort of "failure," and, if policy makers just did the "right thing," they could stave off recession indefinitely, meaning they could repeal the business cycle.ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 16:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/is-there-really-no-recession-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/is-there-really-no-recession-1Achuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 14:16:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-callFor the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions. In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession.Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? The answer is no.The chart depicts real...ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 12:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-update-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-update-1For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 12:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/is-there-really-no-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/is-there-really-no-recessionAchuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 07:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-can-t-be-repealedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/business-cycle-can-t-be-repealedAchuthan and Costello discuss how recessions are part and parcel of free-market economies.ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 06:02:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/update-to-feb-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/update-to-feb-interviewAchuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released.Note: Achuthan discusses the recessionary decline in jobs and income growth. To clarify, in the past 60 years we haven’t seen an economic slowdown where year-over-year jobs growth has dropped this low without r...ECRIWed, 09 May 2012 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-interviewshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-interviewsECRI co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, will be interviewed today about the cyclical outlook at the following times: 6:10 AM - CNBC9:00 AM - CNN12:00 PM - BloombergECRIWed, 09 May 2012 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-growth-slipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-growth-slipsA measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, but the annualized growth rate fell to zero, a research group said on Friday.   The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 124.7 in the week ended April 27 from 124.0 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 124.1. The index's annualized gro...ECRIFri, 04 May 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-ticks-down-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-ticks-down-1U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 101.2 from an upwardly revised 101.5 in March, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“The USFIG ticked up in the first quarter of this year, but has begun to ease again. Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain rela...ECRIFri, 04 May 2012 09:51:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/torontohttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/torontoECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on April 30, 2012.ECRIMon, 30 Apr 2012 17:09:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/australian-home-price-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/australian-home-price-outlookWhile prices in the Australian property market have, at times, surged to bubble-worthy levels in recent years, they have recently cooled off, igniting a flurry of worry over whether a crash in the housing market is imminent. ECRI’s latest report, based on its forward-looking Australian Leading Home Price Index, clarifies the cyclical direction of home prices in the months ahead.ECRIMon, 30 Apr 2012 11:02:41 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-growth-slips-againhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-growth-slips-againA measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week, though the annualized growth rate pulled back to a four-week low, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 124.1 in the week ended April 20, from 123.8 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.9. Th...ECRIFri, 27 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/new-global-cyclical-shifts-taking-holdhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/new-global-cyclical-shifts-taking-holdWhile the mainstream accepts that there is concerted weakness in Europe, ECRI’s latest report presents evidence of new cyclical patterns arising with regard to specific sectors of global growth.  Are we on the verge of a new leg of global cyclical weakness, or is there actually some underlying strength?ECRIFri, 27 Apr 2012 09:34:16 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-drops-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-drops-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 123.9 in the week ended April 13 from 125.9 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate dropped to 1.2 percen...ECRIFri, 20 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-insight-the-yo-yo-yearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-insight-the-yo-yo-years The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.ECRIFri, 20 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/recovery-vs-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/recovery-vs-recession It has become a universal article of faith that U.S. economic growth is steadily improving. Naturally, any recession fears are now considered distant memories.In its latest reading, the Fed’s popular “stall speed” measure of Gross Domestic Income growth also rose above its 2% recession threshold, further boosting optimism about the U.S. recovery. However, is such an optimistic view warranted?E...ECRIFri, 20 Apr 2012 08:12:57 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-14http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-14A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week, though the annualized growth rate continued to improve, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged down to 125.7 in the week ended April 6 from 126.3 the previous week.That was originally reported as 126.5. The index's annua...ECRIFri, 13 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/presentationhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/presentationOn April 11 at 6:30 PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will give a private talk at the Cosmopolitan Club in New York. ECRIWed, 11 Apr 2012 18:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-28http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-28A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.5 in the week ended March 30 from 125.8 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate rose to 1.0 percent from 0.0 p...ECRIFri, 06 Apr 2012 10:36:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/inflation-gauge-dipshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/inflation-gauge-dipsU.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 101.2 from a revised 101.3 in February, originally reported as 101.4, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.ECRIFri, 06 Apr 2012 10:25:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/some-dreary-forecasts-from-recovery-skepticshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/some-dreary-forecasts-from-recovery-skepticsCall them permabears. A solid six months of good and getting-better data — fewer Americans claiming unemployment benefits, rising industrial production and improving economic sentiment among them — have failed to convince them of the strength of the recovery.Some offer outright dire predictions. There is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based forecasting firm, which foresees a ...ECRIFri, 06 Apr 2012 10:07:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-fig-rises-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-fig-rises-1Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in February, pushed up by increases in Germany, Italy and Spain, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge rose a touch to 97.3 in February from January's 21-month low of 96.7, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.'Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyc...ECRIFri, 06 Apr 2012 04:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-chinese-industrial-growth-bounce-backhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-chinese-industrial-growth-bounce-backECRI has just updated its Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in Chinese industrial growth. Given the current recessionary situation in much of Europe, many are looking to China as a potential investment haven. However, with recent data confirming continued weakness in Chinese industrial growth, t...ECRISun, 01 Apr 2012 07:41:39 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-27http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-27A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, and the growth rate on an annualized basis was non-negative for the first time since August, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.9 from a revised 125.4 in the week ended March 23.The index's annualized grow...ECRIFri, 30 Mar 2012 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bahama-meetingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/bahama-meetingsECRI will visit the Bahamas to meet with professional clients on March 27 - 30, 2012.ECRIFri, 30 Mar 2012 09:23:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/germany-and-the-eurozone-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/germany-and-the-eurozone-recession Most observers believe that with the Eurozone financial crisis contained for now, dangers to the German economy have receded. In fact, with popular business and consumer surveys rising in recent months, it is widely expected that the German economy will accelerate in coming months, and recession is only a remote possibility.This confidence in the German economy is partly due to its strong reco...ECRIFri, 30 Mar 2012 09:03:36 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/undertow-in-credit-conditionshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/undertow-in-credit-conditionsRecent marginal interest rate increases have scarcely surprised the consensus – who take this tightening as a sign the U.S. economy is in a firming economic recovery. As such, many expect credit growth to improve further over the next year.But is such extrapolation warranted? After all, borrowers are sensitive to even modest changes in credit conditions.  ECRI’s U.S. Leading Credit Index , whic...ECRIWed, 28 Mar 2012 16:55:03 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-6A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to hold a seven-month high, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 125.7 in the week ended March 16 from a downwardly revised 125.0 the previous week. That was origina...ECRIFri, 23 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/will-u-s-job-growth-begin-to-flaghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/will-u-s-job-growth-begin-to-flagWith U.S. payroll job growth averaging nearly a quarter of a million a month over the last three months, general optimism about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery has improved considerably.  However, coming out of the Great Recession, shell-shocked employers continued to slash jobs for many more months than usual. Thus, part of the current growth in jobs can be attributed to emplo...ECRIFri, 23 Mar 2012 08:57:21 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/the-yo-yo-years-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/the-yo-yo-years-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares his presentation slides and notes from the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference today in Frankfurt, Germany.The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economi...ECRIThu, 22 Mar 2012 11:58:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/frankfurt-conferencehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/frankfurt-conferenceOn March 22 at 9:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join a panel discussion about the "Risks Beyond the Eurozone and the Threat of Contagion" during the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference. ECRIThu, 22 Mar 2012 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/the-yo-yo-yearshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/the-yo-yo-yearsThe convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.ECRIThu, 22 Mar 2012 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-26http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-26A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week to its highest level in seven months, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 125.1 in the week ended March 9 from an upwardly revised 124.6 the previous week. That was origi...ECRIFri, 16 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/radio-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/radio-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt at 7:30 AM on Friday, March 16. ECRIFri, 16 Mar 2012 07:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-call-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-recession-call-2Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice. Let’s start with the current state of the economy. A couple of weeks ago, we publicly highlighted ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index . It’s important to understand th...ECRIThu, 15 Mar 2012 08:57:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-5A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to hold a more than six-month high, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to its highest level since mid-August at 124.3 in the week ended March 2 from a downwardly revise...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/flat-fighttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/flat-figU.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 101.4 from a revised 101.4 in January, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“With the USFIG staying well below its early 2011 highs, U.S. inflation pressures remain fairly subdued,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshm...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2012 10:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-inflation-pressures-ease-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-inflation-pressures-ease-2Inflationary pressures in the euro zone eased to a 21-month low in January, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge slipped a touch to 96.5 in January from 96.6 in December, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading," Lakshma...ECRIFri, 09 Mar 2012 07:42:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/new-growth-rate-cycle-dateshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/new-growth-rate-cycle-datesWe have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland.You can download the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies from ECRI's cycle chronologies page.ECRIWed, 07 Mar 2012 15:53:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-25http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-25A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up to its highest level in six months last week, while the annualized growth rate also saw improvement, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 124.2 in the week ended Feb 24 from a downwardly revised 123.1 the previous week.  Tha...ECRIFri, 02 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/cyclical-linkages-in-international-supply-chainshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/cyclical-linkages-in-international-supply-chainsIn the wake of the global financial crisis, concerns have grown about the passage of power from the Western economies to those in the East and the Global South, who currently account for the lion’s share of worldwide economic growth. However, much of the developing economies’ rapid ascent has been driven by exports, resulting in their significantly deeper integration into the global supply chai...ECRIThu, 01 Mar 2012 09:36:21 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/q4-gdp-revision-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/q4-gdp-revision-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNNi following today's revision to 2011 Q4 GDP.ECRIWed, 29 Feb 2012 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/interview-on-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/interview-on-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with CNN International about our U.S. recession call. ECRIWed, 29 Feb 2012 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/upcoming-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/upcoming-interviewECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene at 12 noon about ECRI's updated outlook.ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2012 12:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-growth-slowing-not-revivinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-growth-slowing-not-revivingECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to point out that U.S. economic growth has actually slowed in recent months, contrary to the consensus view.ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2012 09:59:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-drops-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-drops-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week, though the annualized growth rate continued to improve to its highest level in six months, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 123.2 in the week ended Feb 17 from a downwardly revised 123.4 the previous week. T...ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2012 09:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/upcoming-interview-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/upcoming-interview-1ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene at 8:00 AM about ECRI's updated outlook.ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2012 08:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-growth-at-21-month-lowhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-growth-at-21-month-lowECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Squawk Box this morning to discuss what has transpired since our recession call five months ago.ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2012 06:20:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/velocity-of-money-droppinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/velocity-of-money-droppingECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses our recession call, including the Weekly Leading Index and velocity of money.ECRIFri, 24 Feb 2012 00:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-the-u-s-consumer-keep-spendinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/can-the-u-s-consumer-keep-spendingUpbeat jobs data has helped dissipate recession fears. However, the notion that this improvement can keep recession at bay seems to conflict with the more desperate reality facing many, who, over the past several months, have seen persistently negative income growth. ECRI’s latest analysis examines the jobs data and relates it to the cyclical drivers of consumer spending growth, thereby gaining...ECRIThu, 23 Feb 2012 09:25:32 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-13http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-13A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly to its highest level in nearly six months, a research group said on Friday.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged down to 123.5 in the week ended Feb 10 from an upwardly revised ...ECRIFri, 17 Feb 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/nassau-meetingshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/nassau-meetingsECRI will visit Nassau, Bahamas to meet with professional clients. ECRIFri, 17 Feb 2012 09:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-24http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-24A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week, and the growth rate rose on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.3 in the week ended Feb. 3 from 123.0 in the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate climbed to minus 4....ECRIFri, 10 Feb 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/will-the-u-s-decouplehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/will-the-u-s-decoupleWhile the Eurozone debt crisis still lingers on, there is increasing confidence that the U.S. economy is reaccelerating, given the recent better-than-expected economic data. This has again made popular the view that the U.S. has decoupled from the Eurozone and other major economies.In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth analysis about international synchronization of cyclical downturns...ECRITue, 07 Feb 2012 09:39:03 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/test-charthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/test-charttestECRIFri, 03 Feb 2012 13:22:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged up to 123.1 in the week ended Jan 27 from a revised 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.8....ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-future-inflation-gauge-rises-11 U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.2 from a revised 98.9 in December, originally reported as 98.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “With the USFIG staying well below the highs seen in early 2011, U.S. inflation pressures are relatively restrained,” ECRI Chief Operatio...ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2012 10:23:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-inflation-pressures-ease-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/euro-inflation-pressures-ease-1Inflationary pressures in the euro zone slipped further in December, according to an indicator from the Economic Cycle Research Institute , designed to predict inflation trends, on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge dipped to 97.0 in December from 97.7 in November as inflationary pressures in Germany, France and Italy receded."In line with the cyclical downtrend in the EZFIG, euro zone ...ECRIFri, 03 Feb 2012 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/stagnant-moneyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/stagnant-moneyFor many years now we have seen stimulatory monetary policy implemented by central banks around the world. Taking a step back from the modest economic recoveries and upswing in the markets, it is also important to assess what has happened to the velocity of money - which refers to the speed with which money changes hand in a given economy.  If velocity is high, monetary stimulus can be much mor...ECRIWed, 01 Feb 2012 15:04:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-riseshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-u-s-future-inflation-gauge-risesU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from an upwardly revised 104.4 in December, originally reported as 104.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While pointing to somewhat higher U.S. inflation pressures, the USFIG has not yet seen a pronounced, pervasive and persistent advance t...ECRIWed, 01 Feb 2012 10:16:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-11A measure of future U.S. economic growth declined modestly in the latest week, though the annualized growth rate improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.8 in the week ended Jan 20 from a revised 123.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.4. The ...ECRIFri, 27 Jan 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/cyclical-risk-patterns-equity-priceshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/cyclical-risk-patterns-equity-pricesNearly a year after the end of the Great Recession, we concluded that we were "approaching the most dangerous period of the business cycle to employ a buy-on-dips strategy." That turned out to be a prescient forecast that was followed by widespread stock market worries about a "double-dip recession."This conclusion drew on an analysis covering six decades that pinpointed the stages of the busin...ECRIThu, 26 Jan 2012 09:46:58 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/is-the-u-s-economy-gathering-steamhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/is-the-u-s-economy-gathering-steamWith recent U.S. economic data showing better-than-consensus readings, there is growing agreement that the U.S. economy has avoided a recession. Do the data really reflect a genuine firming in economic activity, or is this merely a false dawn before a recession hits?ECRI's latest report on the U.S. outlook provides clear insights into this issue, with important implications for the markets and ...ECRITue, 24 Jan 2012 14:02:45 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-23http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-23A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week to its highest level in five months, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week ended Jan 13 climbed to 123.4, the highest level since August, from a revised 121.1 ...ECRIFri, 20 Jan 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-22http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-22A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, though the annualized growth rate eased, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.2 in the week ended Jan 6 from 120.2 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate slipped to minus 8.4 percent from ...ECRIFri, 13 Jan 2012 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-weekly-leading-rises-4A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened in the latest week to its highest in a year and a half, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 128.3 in the week ended Jan. 4, its best showing since August 2011, from a revised 12...ECRIWed, 11 Jan 2012 10:32:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-rises-5http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-rises-5U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge crept to 98.6 from a revised 98.4 in November, originally reported as 98.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“With the USFIG ending 2011 near the lows of the year, underlying U.S. inflation pressures remain subdued,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lak...ECRIFri, 06 Jan 2012 09:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-12A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 30 fell to 120.2 from 120.7 in the previous week. The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell 8.2 percent.ECRIFri, 06 Jan 2012 09:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/g7-expansions-at-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/g7-expansions-at-riskWith the Great Recession still a fresh memory, the global economy is facing another downturn, with some countries already in recession. The perceived shortness of the recoveries took most by surprise, demolishing expectations that a severe recession would be followed by a strong and prolonged recovery.It should not have. Our recent analysis extends our original work on the U.S. economy from 200...ECRITue, 03 Jan 2012 15:34:07 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/recession-recognitionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/recession-recognitionWith the consensus typically recognizing recession only long after it has begun and usually because of a negative GDP print--the fact that these releases are revised many months, years and even decades after their first release may be one reason why it is so difficult for many to pin-down recession timing.In ECRI's latest study, we summarize the nature of these revisions and examine how long it...ECRIFri, 30 Dec 2011 12:09:22 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/weekly-leading-index-falls-35http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/weekly-leading-index-falls-35A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 23 fell to 120.9 from 121.3 in the previous week.The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell to 7.6 percent.ECRIFri, 30 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-down-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-down-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also sagged, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 121.3 in the week ended Dec 16 from 122.3 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate dipped to minus 7.7 per...ECRIFri, 23 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/forecasting-foghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/forecasting-fogThe American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. But unless the economy receives another shocking blow, it isn’t in imminent danger of relapsing into recession.That was essentially the outlook presented by Federal Reserve policy makers last week when they ratcheted up their assessment of the nation’s economic condition. They ...ECRISun, 18 Dec 2011 08:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-little-changedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-little-changedA measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.3 in the week ended Dec 9 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5. The in...ECRIFri, 16 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-21http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-21A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.5 in the week ended December 2 from a revised 120.8 the previous week. It was originally reported at 120.9. The index's ann...ECRIFri, 09 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-call-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-call-updateIn the noon hour ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV about ECRI's recession call. ECRIThu, 08 Dec 2011 00:01:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-updatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-updateECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recessionary outlook, Gross Domestic Income, and how economic growth doesn't really "muddle along" at sustained low rates.ECRIThu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-11http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-11A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 120.9 in the week ended Nov 25 from a revised 122.2 the previous week, originally reported at 122.3. The index's annualized growth rate worsened to minus 7.8 percent f...ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/confusion-masks-brazilian-realityhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/confusion-masks-brazilian-realityDespite signs of weakening, Brazilian officials are hoping for relatively strong economic growth over the next year, recently adopting accommodative policies to ensure their 5% growth target is met. Meanwhile, central bank forecasters have slashed GDP growth predictions 11 times since August, settling at 3.1%. At the same time, the head of the IMF has lauded Brazil for their adeptness in weathe...ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2011 10:25:47 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-unchangedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-unchangedU.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 98.3 from a revised 98.3 in October, originally reported as 99.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “Since its March peak, the USFIG has remained in a cyclical downswing, and is now hovering around its lows for the year. Thus, inflation pressures r...ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2011 10:03:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-fig-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-fig-downInflation pressures in the euro zone eased to a 13-month low in October, according to a forward looking indicator from the Economic Cycle Research Institute that is designed to predict trends in inflation.October's Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge was down at 97.7 from 98.5 in September, suggesting that euro zone inflation remains in a cyclical downward trend.'With the EZFIG declining from its s...ECRIFri, 02 Dec 2011 04:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/cyclical-shift-for-chinese-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/cyclical-shift-for-chinese-economyOver the past year, China has made countless policy moves to curb runaway inflation, but the current manufacturing slowdown may be more than they may have bargained for.The People's Bank of China recently lowered its reserve requirement ratio for the first time in two years. Does this mean that China's policy makers will now focus more on economic growth and not inflation? ECRI's latest in-dept...ECRIThu, 01 Dec 2011 14:03:27 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-3A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate continued to improve from low levels, a research group said on Wednesday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.3 in the week ended Nov 18 from 122.0 the previous week. That was originally reported as 12...ECRIWed, 23 Nov 2011 10:47:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-10A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate continued to improve, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 122.1 in the week ended Nov 11 from 122.3 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate gai...ECRIFri, 18 Nov 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-20http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-20A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to an eight-week high in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 122.3 in the week ended Nov 4 from 122.1 the week before. The index's annualized growth rate gaine...ECRIFri, 11 Nov 2011 10:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squawk-box-interview-13http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squawk-box-interview-13Lakshman Achuthan will join Squawk Box at 6:40 AM to discuss the recession call that ECRI announced in September. ECRITue, 08 Nov 2011 06:30:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-call-intacthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-call-intactLakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI's recession call announced on Sep. 30, and explained that over the past century most recessions began during quarters with positive GDP growth.ECRIMon, 07 Nov 2011 06:40:00 -0500http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-19http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-19A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved from low levels, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 122.1 in the week ended Oct 28 from a revised 121.2 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121....ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-drops-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-fig-drops-2U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 99.2 from a revised 99.7 in September, originally reported as 99.9, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “After a brief interruption, the USFIG has begun to ease once again. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures are still in a cyclical downswing,” ECRI Chief Op...ECRIFri, 04 Nov 2011 09:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/is-australia-out-of-luckhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/is-australia-out-of-luckAustralia - which some call "the lucky country" - stands apart from other advanced economies, having sidestepped not only the recent global financial crisis but also the 2001 global recession and the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. However, as the Australian economy is increasingly driven by resource exports, it is becoming more vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in global growth. EC...ECRITue, 01 Nov 2011 08:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-in-toronto-4http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-in-toronto-4ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on October 31, 2011. ECRIMon, 31 Oct 2011 07:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-18http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-18A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose for the first time in three months, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 121.3 in the week ended Oct 21 from 120.4 the previous week. The index's annualized growth r...ECRIFri, 28 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squaring-higher-stocks-with-recession-2http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squaring-higher-stocks-with-recession-2Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data.ECRIWed, 26 Oct 2011 08:55:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/will-the-consumer-save-the-dayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/will-the-consumer-save-the-dayRecently, a number of economic data releases watched by economists have come in "above expectations," thereby easing recession fears and buoying the markets.In particular, September's retail sales data came in well above expectations, leading many analysts to downplay recession risk. ECRI's latest analysis shows that from a cyclical perspective the reality is very different, with critical impli...ECRIMon, 24 Oct 2011 17:19:35 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squaring-higher-stocks-with-recession-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squaring-higher-stocks-with-recession-1Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data.ECRIMon, 24 Oct 2011 16:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-17http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-rises-17A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 120.4 in the week ended Oct 14 from 120.0 the week before. That was origina...ECRIFri, 21 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-9A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 120.2 in the week ended Oct 7 from a revised 120.5 the previous week. That was origina...ECRIFri, 14 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/in-depth-interviewhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/in-depth-interviewAt 9:00 PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Matt Miller on Bloomberg TV's Rewind to discuss how ECRI doesn't use models for forecasting, and why we are in an era of more frequent recessions.ECRIWed, 12 Oct 2011 21:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-nips-at-heels-of-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-nips-at-heels-of-economy"...'We've had a new slowdown that began roughly in the second quarter of 2011,' says Lakshman Achuthan, who heads the Economic Cycle Research Institute. 'This time that downturn in growth has continued all the way to the onset of a new recession.'""...'Then the economy began to slow again and this is something we saw coming,' Achuthan says. 'It was happening in the context of a global industri...ECRITue, 11 Oct 2011 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-implicationshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-implicationsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with ABC Evening News about the economic implications of a new recession. ECRIMon, 10 Oct 2011 18:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/an-ugly-forecast-that-s-been-right-beforehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/an-ugly-forecast-that-s-been-right-beforeLET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. The stock market offers its predictions, and, occasionally, it’s even right. As the economist Paul Samuelson once put it: “The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.”Economists have an even worse record, particularly when it comes to predicting downturns. In 1929, fo...ECRISun, 09 Oct 2011 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-jobsLakshman Achuthan joined CNN's Your $$$$$ on Saturday to discuss ECRI's recession call and what it means for the job market in coming months. Re-airing Sunday at 3 PM . ECRISat, 08 Oct 2011 13:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-8http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-8A measure of future U.S. economic growth weakened in the latest week, and the index's annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 121.2 in the week ended Sept. 30 from a revised 121.8 the previous week. The previous week's number was originally...ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/us-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/us-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-upU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 99.9 from a revised 99.2 in August , originally reported as 99.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG is still close to July's ten-month low. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend,” ECRI Chi...ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2011 09:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/global-slowdownhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/global-slowdownECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with Al Jazeera. ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2011 07:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-jobs-1http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-jobs-1At 7 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with WNYC's John Hockenberry about the outlook for jobs in coming months. ECRIFri, 07 Oct 2011 07:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-mild-or-severehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-mild-or-severeLakshman Achuthan discusses how mild or severe the recession may become.ECRIWed, 05 Oct 2011 17:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-weakness-beyond-sentimenthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-weakness-beyond-sentimentLakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI outlook with Reuters.ECRIWed, 05 Oct 2011 11:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-yield-spreadhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-yield-spreadLakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recession call with BNN. ECRIWed, 05 Oct 2011 10:05:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/made-in-the-u-s-ahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/made-in-the-u-s-a"Sell in May and go away" is the hoary cliché that proved prescient this year for stock traders. The Standard & Poor's 500 peaked around May Day, along with President Obama's popularity with the termination of Osama bin Laden, and it's been downhill for both since.The S&P 500 closed within a percentage point of the conventional definition of a bear market Monday, down 19.4% from the April 29 hi...ECRIWed, 05 Oct 2011 10:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/explaining-the-recession-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/explaining-the-recession-callThe U.S. recovery wasn’t much to begin with, and now it’s dead. That is the news from the widely respected Economic Cycle Research Institute that said the U.S. has already or is about to tip into recession. The announcement, made public Friday, was met with skepticism by other economists who are more hopeful the U.S. and the world will skirt recession.Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI, howe...ECRIWed, 05 Oct 2011 06:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/double-dip-or-new-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/double-dip-or-new-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Anthony Mason about ECRI's new U.S. recession call.ECRITue, 04 Oct 2011 18:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-outlookLakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Kathleen Hayes about the cyclical outlook.ECRITue, 04 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-debatehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-debateLakshman Achuthan will debate ECRI's recent recession call with Larry Kudlow. ECRIMon, 03 Oct 2011 19:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/new-recession-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/new-recession-callLakshman Achuthan discussed ECRI's recent recession call with Ali Velshi on American Morning.ECRIMon, 03 Oct 2011 07:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/us-recession-vicious-cyclehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/us-recession-vicious-cycleIs the sky really falling? In a business far more forgiving of misguided optimism than the opposite, pundits must be wary of predicting recessions. They are, after all, fairly rare, with just 11 in the US since the second world war. Still, enough economists are willing to stick their necks out at times like this for one economist’s quip about having predicted nine out of the past five recession...ECRIMon, 03 Oct 2011 06:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-can-t-be-avertedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-can-t-be-avertedLakshman Achuthan talks with The Wall Street Journal about ECRI's new recession call.ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 16:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/it-s-going-to-get-worsehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/it-s-going-to-get-worseLakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance about ECRI new recession call.ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 15:50:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-7http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-7A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.9 in the week ended Sept. 23 from 122.2 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate decelerated to minus 7.2 per...ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/u-s-economy-tipping-into-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/u-s-economy-tipping-into-recessionEarly last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI's recession call isn't based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down - before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthqua...ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 07:27:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/growth-jobs-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/growth-jobs-outlookOn Sep. 30 morning ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNBC's Squawk Box to discuss the cyclical outlook.ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 06:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squawk-box-interview-12http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/squawk-box-interview-12Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC's Squawk Box at 6:10 AM to discuss the recession call that ECRI announced today. ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 06:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/a-new-recessionhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/a-new-recessionECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the new recession. ECRIFri, 30 Sep 2011 00:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/focus-the-jobs-recovery-retrospect-and-prospecthttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/focus-the-jobs-recovery-retrospect-and-prospectIn the previous business cycle, manufacturing saw massive structural job losses, while construction saw cyclical job gains - a pattern reversed in the latest business cycle.ECRIThu, 29 Sep 2011 20:49:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/international-outlook-updatedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/international-outlook-updatedOn Wednesday afternoon ECRI will release the September International Cyclical Outlook to members, with a focus on Eurozone prospects. ECRIWed, 28 Sep 2011 05:54:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-in-london-3http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/events-details/ecri-in-london-3ECRI principals will be in London to meet with professional members on September 26 and 27, 2011. ECRIMon, 26 Sep 2011 08:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recall-last-mayhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recall-last-may"As if to underline the Fed's downbeat assessment , the Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. weekly leading indicator has deteriorated to negative 6.7% growth rate, the worst since this indicator began to roll over in early May."Read the full article in Barron's. ECRISat, 24 Sep 2011 07:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-10http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-10The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators is still, you guessed it, pointing in the wrong direction. The ECRI’s index ticked lower yet again last week, the institute said today, and the four-week rolling average fell to -6.7%, the worst rate of decline in nearly a year.The index is still not signaling a recession — it has fallen much further than this i...ECRIFri, 23 Sep 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/cycles-current-eventshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/cycles-current-eventsECRI's Achuthan discusses current events from ECRI's cyclical vantage point. ECRIMon, 19 Sep 2011 06:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/skating-on-thin-icehttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/skating-on-thin-iceECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with NPR's All Things Considered about the risk of recession and the jobs challenge that predated the recession.ECRISun, 18 Sep 2011 17:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/new-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/new-recession-riskLast year economist Lakshman Achuthan said he thought the United States had emerged from the depths of a recession, but today the picture looks a bit more grim. Unemployment is hovering above nine percent and there were no new jobs created in August. On top of that, consumer confidence is at its second-lowest level of the year.In response to the grim news, Achuthan told Guy Raz, host of weekend...ECRIFri, 16 Sep 2011 20:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-6http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-falls-6The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators continues to trot in the wrong direction, down. The ECRI’s index ticked lower last week, the institute said today, and the four-week rolling average fell to -7.1%, the worst rate of decline in nearly a year. The chart keeps looking uglier and uglier, though you could eyeball it and say maybe it has stopped falli...ECRIFri, 16 Sep 2011 10:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/serious-recession-threat-for-u-shttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/serious-recession-threat-for-u-sNew York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute tracks some 20 large economies contributing about 80% of the world GDP and provides critical information about upturns and downturns of economic cycles to money managers, corporate bodies and policy makers.It follows the economies like the US, Canada, Brazil, the UK, Germany, France, Japan, China and India. Set up by the legendary Geoffrey H Moor...ECRISun, 11 Sep 2011 00:01:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-economyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-economyECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be interviewed on All Things Considered this weekend at 5:00 PM . Update: this interview did not yet air. If and when it does, we will post it here.Lakshman's comments included an overview of how many of the challenges the economy faces today were in place prior to the 2007-09 Great Recession. You may be interested in listening to Lakshman’s July 2010 explanation o...ECRISat, 10 Sep 2011 14:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-but-growth-weakenshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-ticks-up-but-growth-weakensA measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked higher in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in nearly a year, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.0 in the week ended Sept 2 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported ...ECRIFri, 09 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-recession-riskhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-recession-riskAt 8:45 AM Thursday morning, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Canada's BNN to discuss the cyclical outlook for growth and jobs. UPDATE: cancelled because of technical difficulties in Toronto. ECRIThu, 08 Sep 2011 08:45:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/update-on-jobs-outlookhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/update-on-jobs-outlookECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Fox Business this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook, including jobs. ECRITue, 06 Sep 2011 11:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/outlook-for-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/outlook-for-growthECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNN's Your $$$$$ at 1:00 PM on Saturday, and then again at 3:00 PM on Sunday. ECRISat, 03 Sep 2011 13:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/long-term-problem-for-long-term-unemployedhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/long-term-problem-for-long-term-unemployedECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be on NBC Nightly News discussing how the problems with employment predated the Great Recession.ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2011 13:42:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-jobshttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/interview-on-jobsECRI's Lakshman Achuthan returns to Bloomberg TV following to follow up on an early May appearance when ECRI publicly announced the imminent slowdown.ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2011 00:40:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-fig-edges-uphttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/eurozone-fig-edges-upInflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in July from June's seven-month low, driven by increases in Germany and Italy, an indicator designed by the Economic Cycle Research Institute to predict inflation trends showed.New York-based ECRI said its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge rose to 101.1 in July from 100.5 in June."In line with the downturn in the EZFIG, euro zone inflation has decr...ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-9http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/wli-slips-9A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate tumbled to its lowest level since November, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index eased to 122.5 in the week ended Aug 26 from 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as...ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-risk-risinghttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/recession-risk-rising"As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come.That's because high unemployment could be a warning sign -- and the cause -- of the country falling into a double dip recession.Most economists weren't ready to call a new recession yet. But many were raising the odds of one.They're worried because weakness in the lab...ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-downhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/u-s-future-inflation-gauge-ticks-downU.S. inflationary pressures were higher in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge rose to 99.5 from 98.5 in Juy, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.According to ECRI, the USFIG remains near July’s nine-month low. Thus U.S. inflation pressures are still in a cyclical downsizing.ECRIFri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/trend-of-slowing-jobs-growthhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/trend-of-slowing-jobs-growthSegment including ECRI runs from the 9:00 to 11:40 minute mark. ECRIWed, 31 Aug 2011 18:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/looming-risks-in-koreahttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/report-summary-details/looming-risks-in-koreaWith high Korean inflation, and concern about growth going forward, there are mounting fears that the Korean economy is in for tough times.ECRI has just completed an in-depth cyclical risk analysis based on its forward-looking Korean indicators for domestic growth, exports and inflation. This study provides clear insights into the nuances of the cyclical direction of growth and inflation in com...ECRIWed, 31 Aug 2011 08:30:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/job-market-to-remain-weakhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/job-market-to-remain-weakNear the end of the interview Lakshman misquoted the number of robots currently used by Foxconn, China’s largest private employer . They do plan to increase the number of robots they use from 10,000 today to one million by 2014. ECRIWed, 31 Aug 2011 06:10:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/jobs-outlook-tough-for-policyhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/jobs-outlook-tough-for-policyPresident Obama will need a home run when he rolls out his new, long-awaited jobs plan next week. His approval rating has plunged, it's currently at 40%, according to Gallup, and some economists say it's too late for the White House to make a dent in the 9.2% national unemployment rate before November 2012, especially if the economy slips back into recession.Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the...ECRIWed, 31 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/no-near-term-jobs-fixhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/no-near-term-jobs-fixECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses job market challenges in the context of the current slowdown occurring within an era of more frequent recessions.ECRIMon, 29 Aug 2011 10:15:00 -0400http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/jury-still-out-on-recession-callhttp://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/jury-still-out-on-recession-callThere is more weakness ahead, but the jury is still out as to whether the cyclical slowdown will turn into a new recession.ECRIMon, 29 Aug 2011 09:30:00 -0400