ECRI News

Stock Price Rally and the Wealth Effect

ECRI — Wed, 22 May 2013 10:31:40 -0400

Since early April, economic data releases have mostly been worse than expected. However, with a “better-than-feared” jobs report in early May quickly dispelling mounting concerns, stock prices have kept climbing. It is well known that the Fed’s QE policy is intended to boost the prices of stocks and homes, the assumption being that this will induce consumers to spend more money, thereby driving...

The Stock Price Rally and the Wealth Effect

ECRI — Wed, 22 May 2013 10:27:00 -0400

London

ECRI — Wed, 22 May 2013 09:30:00 -0400

On May 22 and 23 ECRI principals will be visiting London to meet with professional members.

Weekly Leading Index Fell

ECRI — Fri, 17 May 2013 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week, while the annualized growth rate also pulled back, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 130.2 in the week ended May 10 from 131.0 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate slipped to 7.0 percent from 7.4 ...

Outlook for U.K. Labor Market

ECRI — Mon, 13 May 2013 09:20:42 -0400

With stronger-than-expected U.K. GDP data recently cheering the consensus, fears of a triple-dip U.K. recession have been assuaged. However, with U.K. unemployment elevated and employment growth continuing to decline, is talk of a “healing” economy premature?In this context, the latest updates to ECRI’s U.K. Leading and Coincident Employment Indexes reveal whether the state of the U.K. labor ma...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 10 May 2013 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.0 in the week ended May 3 from 130.6 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate climbed to 7.3 percent from 7.1 pe...

Questions about Australian Home Price Prospects

ECRI — Thu, 09 May 2013 16:47:57 -0400

A year ago, Australian home prices were in a clear cyclical downturn, and the growth rate of Australian real home prices was deep in negative territory. At the time, we predicted on the basis of the growth rate of our Australian Leading Home Price Index that Australian home price growth was about to turn up, and home price growth did strengthen shortly after.In April, home prices fell, raising ...

Manufacturing Jobs Growth Stalls Out

ECRI — Mon, 06 May 2013 12:11:27 -0400

Growth in U.S. industrial jobs seems to have reversed course recently after the addition of roughly half a million manufacturing jobs over the last three years. In fact, the latest jobs report shows year-over-year manufacturing job growth falling to a 30-month low.Is this downturn an anomaly, or is further weakness coming? ECRI’s latest study paints a clear picture of what lies ahead for indust...

Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

ECRI — Fri, 03 May 2013 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady last week, while the annualized growth rate improved to a two-month high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was unchanged at 130.6 in the week ended April 26 compared to the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate gain...

US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 03 May 2013 09:45:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.4 from a downwardly revised 103.9 in March, originally reported as 104.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its April uptick, the USFIG remains below its recent high. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain reasonably restrained," E...

Euro zone inflation pressures near three-year low

ECRI — Fri, 03 May 2013 04:30:00 -0400

Euro zone inflation will likely fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in March, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to 92.4 from February's 92.8, as similar national indicators fell in Germany, France and Spain."The EZFIG declined in its lates...

BoE Accepts 40th Consecutive Month of Above-Target Inflation

ECRI — Thu, 02 May 2013 16:02:19 -0400

ECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.While inflation has declined markedly since 2011, it has plateaued well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with March’s reading marking the 40th straight above-target month. However, with economic growth remaining the BoE’s...

Latest Canadian GDP Figures Defy Carney

ECRI — Thu, 02 May 2013 10:40:13 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Canadian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.The consensus was cheered by the latest output data, stoking expectations of first quarter GDP growth above 2%, a rate that would be the economy’s strongest showing since 2011. However, this data comes just weeks afte...

New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Mexico and Japan

ECRI — Wed, 01 May 2013 10:58:00 -0400

Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Mexico and Japan .Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in eco...

New Business Cycle Peaks for Italy and Japan

ECRI — Wed, 01 May 2013 10:54:00 -0400

Today ECRI is announcing new business cycle peak dates for Italy and Japan .Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBE...

Mexico Investors Face Cyclical Challenges

ECRI — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 12:57:38 -0400

While growth in many economies has been sluggish since the Global Financial Crisis, Mexico has enjoyed relatively robust economic growth. In combination with investors’ desire for higher yields, Mexico’s comparative strength has favored it for investments. Yet recently, despite a surge in CPI inflation, the Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years. A...

Is Abenomics Too Little, Too Much, or Just Right?

ECRI — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 09:48:29 -0400

The Bank of Japan has recently doubled down on monetary accommodation – in the form of both quantitative and qualitative easing. Given that Japanese monetary policy has long proven itself to be behind the curve, is Japan’s central bank getting it right this time?ECRI’s latest updates to its separate leading indexes for Japanese inflation and economic growth show them to be in clear trajectories...

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 13:13:00 -0400

So, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.5%, how can we be in recession? Few realize that GDP data for almost all the early quarters of recent recessions have been revised down dramatically. Recall that the GDP release on August 28, 2008 – with the economy eight months inside the Great Recession – revised Q2/08 GDP growth to 3.3% from 1.9%, up from 0.9% in Q1/08. But both of those data points, as well as...

GDP Growth Lower Than Expected

ECRI — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 12:35:00 -0400

The U.S. economy failed to gain as much steam as expected in the first quarter, stoking fear that economic growth could slow further as the impact of automatic government spending cuts kick in. The lackluster growth suggests the Federal Reserve is not ready to take its foot off the pedal just yet.The nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy, a...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its highest since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also pulled a touch higher, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 130.6 in the week ended April 19 from 130.5 the previous week. That was originally r...

Is Home Price Growth Losing Momentum?

ECRI — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 09:49:25 -0400

Last April ECRI’s U.S. Leading Home Price Index strongly suggested that U.S. real home price growth would turn up. Indeed real home price growth has risen substantially since then and the new-found housing market strength was seen by many as proof that the economic recovery was intact and set to accelerate. However, last month we highlighted that USLHPI growth had turned down in the prior month...

Will Business Spending Pick Up?

ECRI — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 09:24:44 -0400

Lately, there has been optimism about a U.S. economic revival, in part because of hopes that business investment will pick up. Although business investment growth peaked in early 2012, a slight uptick in the latest data has led some to argue that a new upturn is in the offing.In this context, ECRI’s latest report analyzes the primary determinants of future business investment, revealing whether...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic expansion increased to its highest level since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also strengthened, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.6 in the week ended April 12 from a revised 130.2 the previous week, which was originally r...

When Hopes Encounter Realities

ECRI — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 09:23:29 -0400

Bolstered by better-than-expected readings for many economic releases in March, the prevailing view, both on Wall Street and at the Fed, was that a U.S. economic revival would soon be at hand.In contrast, most of the widely-watched data releases in April came in below consensus expectations, dashing hopes that strength in both the stock and housing markets would translate into an economic recov...

Is Sentiment Signaling an Upturn in Eurozone Growth?

ECRI — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 09:21:30 -0400

There has been much debate recently about Eurozone economic prospects. Some posit that Eurozone growth is picking up, while others are more pessimistic, pointing to continued weakness in indicators like retail sales and unemployment. Despite these downbeat data points, one measure of regional sentiment remains in an upturn, leading some to trumpet it as a sign of an impending upturn in Eurozone...

Why Recovery Plan Has Faltered

ECRI — Sat, 13 Apr 2013 09:22:00 -0400

Forget the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Ignore the S&P 500. The records that they’ve recently set, although impressive at first blush, tell us almost nothing about the state of the U.S. economy.Indeed, the U.S. is four years into a rebound from a recession that began in 2007 and ended some 24 months later, and still some of the most important economic metrics -- those that affect individuals m...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 10:35:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate stayed flat, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.1 in the week ended April 5 from a revised 129.1 the previous week. The previous figure was originally reported as 129.2.Th...

Raw Materials Demand Buoys Chinese Imports

ECRI — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 09:02:02 -0400

The latest trade figures for China surprised the consensus as exports missed expectations for the first time in four months and imports came in above forecast, leading to an unexpected trade deficit. While concerns over data quality remain, raw materials demand clearly drove much of the increase in imports, a welcome change as slowing Chinese growth hampered raw materials demand in 2012.ECRI’s ...

Negative Real Yields and Business Productivity

ECRI — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 10:28:05 -0400

There has been a lot of debate about recent data releases, showing both “positive” and “negative” indications for the economy. Taking a step back, however, a measure of business productivity growth already reached negative territory in the third quarter of last year as real yields slipped into negative territory. What does this tell us about the economy?ECRI’s latest report examines how busines...

Interview on Jobs & Recession

ECRI — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 19:30:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan speaks with Maria Bartiromo about the latest jobs report in the context of a recession.

Upcoming TV Interview

ECRI — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 12:01:00 -0400

On Sunday April 7 Lakshman Achuthan joins "On the Money" with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the cyclical outlook in the context of recent economic data.The interview will air at 11:30 AM on WNBC and also at 7:30 PM on CNBC.

ECRI WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate also pulled back, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.2 in the week ended March 29 from an unrevised 129.7 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate edged down to 6.2...

Employment Growth Hits New Low

ECRI — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 10:27:00 -0400

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to a 19-month low, and household job growth has dropped to an 18-month low.We are now in the Yo-Yo Years as described by ECRI early last year.ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares images and notes from early March presentations in Oslo and Chicago.Click here to download the presentation with images and notes on the state of the business cy...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls

ECRI — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 09:40:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 104.0 from a downwardly revised 105.3 in February, originally reported as 105.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The downturn in the USFIG indicates a pullback in U.S. inflation pressures," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said...

Eurozone FIG Rises

ECRI — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 03:30:00 -0400

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, nudged up to 92.3 from January's 91.9, as similar national indicators rose in Italy and Spain but fell in Germany while it was unchanged for France."In February, the EZFIG edged up but stayed near January's 35-month low. Thus, euro zone inflation is likely to ebb further in the months ahead," Lakshman Achu...

Australian Inflation in Check?

ECRI — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 17:07:51 -0400

In its April meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at its lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis. The governor of the RBA stated that earlier monetary easing is already “having an expansionary effect on the economy,” but the inflation outlook “would afford scope to ease policy further,” if necessary.In this context, we examined the latest cyclical movemen...

“Surprise” Mexican Rate Cut in Context

ECRI — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 19:38:23 -0400

Last month, the Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2009. Yet, economic data released afterwards showed industrial production and retail sales surging while the jobless rate dropped. As a result, the consensus view is quite upbeat on the Mexican outlook.However, with ongoing weakness in the global economy including a U.S. recession, a key question is wh...

Can Germany Hold the Eurozone Up?

ECRI — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 10:38:36 -0400

Germany has been the envy of most developed economies because it was the first country to pull out of recession following the Global Financial Crisis. Currently, the consensus view is quite optimistic about the German economic outlook. This comes despite the fact that industrial production has shown negative growth for several months and even GDP shrank in the fourth quarter.Is such weakness in...

Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

ECRI — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth held steady last week, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Thursday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was unchanged at 129.7 in the week ended March 22. That was originally reported as 129.8.The index's annualized growth rate rose to 6.6 pe...

Near-term Drivers of Global Growth

ECRI — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:10:30 -0400

With the Eurozone mired in crisis, and economy after economy slipping into recession, opportunities for stronger growth around the world are few and far between. Yet several consensus forecasts are seeing glimmers of a global growth revival in the coming months. If so, given the importance of global trade, this would mean that countries plausibly have more options for a lifeline when their dome...

Examining the Wealth Effect and the Housing Recovery

ECRI — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:04:11 -0400

With the “wealth effect” taking center stage in recent weeks, there are hopes that a strengthening stock market and rising home prices will translate directly into an economic recovery. The headline retail sales figure and jobs number for February both came in better than the consensus expected, but the underlying numbers may provide reason for concern.In this context, ECRI has just completed a...

Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

ECRI — Fri, 22 Mar 2013 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged last week, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index held steady at 129.8 in the week ended March 15. Last week's figure was originally reported as 129.9.The index's annualized growth rate ro...

Carney Leaving Bank of Canada Constrained

ECRI — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 10:29:33 -0400

Over the past several months, the Bank of Canada has grappled with a stated desire to increase rates, yet repeatedly, economic growth has disappointed.ECRI’s latest study reveals an additional underlying challenge that Canadian policymakers are wrestling with. As the Bank of Canada’s Mark Carney heads across the pond to head the Bank of England, amid rumblings of a shift in their policy goals t...

Stock Prices and Recessions

ECRI — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:42:00 -0400

"The U.S. economic reports continue to impress," says Scott Anderson, Chief Economist at Bank of the West, who notes that the data "reveal a resilient private sector economy that accelerated over the first two months of the year, despite the headwinds from higher payroll and personal income taxes." Not even higher gas prices seemed to get in the way of consumers, who are choosing to dip into th...

Bahamas

ECRI — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:11:00 -0400

ECRI principals will be visiting the Bahamas from March 18 - 20 to meet with professional members.

ECRI WLI Growth Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 10:52:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, though the annualized growth rate faltered, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 129.9 in the week ended March 8 from a revised 129.5 the previous week. That was originally reported as 129.3.The index's annualiz...

Uneven Global Inflation Pressures

ECRI — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 10:46:23 -0400

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the world’s central banks embarked on unprecedented quantitative easing in hopes of shoring up sagging economic growth. But with growth continuing to disappoint, QE continues on, engendering concerns of runaway inflation down the road. In response, many central banks argue that the current slow-growth environment will keep inflation pressures at bay.E...

Job Growth is Slowing

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 18:05:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how job growth is not accelerating as almost every commentator is suggesting. Even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low, and year-over-year household jobs growth has fallen to a 16-month low.

Interview Summary

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 14:13:00 -0500

In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. CNBCCoincident indicators, including GDP, are consistent with recession starting mid 2012Stock prices can rise during recessionPolicy makers targeting market pricesMild vs. severe recessionBloomberg Part 1The ...

Seasonal Factors at Play in Jobs Report

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 09:52:00 -0500

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. Following this morning’s jobs report we have updated the jobs growth charts in our recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years, that illustrate the role of skewed seasonal factors in the economic data.For a detailed discussion of this issue please see p...

U.S. Price Pressures Pull Back

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 09:17:00 -0500

Despite a recent rise in energy prices, inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain contained, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI US future inflation gauge slipped to 105.6 last month, from 105.8 in January."The February dip in the USFIG is consistent with relatively restrained inflation pressures," says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI director

ECRI WLI Growth Eases

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 09:16:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week although the annualized growth rate weakened, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index increased to 129.3 in the week ended March 1 from a revised 128.4 the previous week. That figure was originally reported as 128.5.The in...

Eurozone inflation pressures drop to 35-month low

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 04:00:00 -0500

Eurozone inflation is likely to fall further as price pressures eased close to a three-year low in January, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to 92.1 from December's 92.6, as similar national indicators fell in Germany, France and Italy but nudged up in Spain."The EZ...

Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 01:00:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares images and notes from recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago.We are now in the Yo-Yo Years as described by ECRI early last year. Meanwhile, even though some economic data seems stronger on the surface, U.S. Nominal GDP growth is recessionary and we are below a "stall speed" measure highlighted by the Fed. And this isn't the first time the stock market has risen...

Recession Recognition

ECRI — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 15:17:00 -0500

ECRI's Achuthan joins The Daily Ticker to discuss recession recognition light of his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.Stock prices have risen during three of the past 15 recessions, to view the images please see pages 11 - 12.Click here to download the presentation images and notes.

Recession Update: Part 2 of 2

ECRI — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:49:00 -0500

ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.To see the referenced velocity of money chart, please see page 16 of the presentation.For the exact Bernanke quote, in reference to using risk assets to create a wealth effect, see page 12.A chart of ECRI's U.S. Leading Home Price Index can be viewed on page seven.Click here to download...

Recession Update: Part 1 of 2

ECRI — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:34:00 -0500

Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.To see a chart of the Fed's GDI stall speed measure, as discussed in the interview, please see page three of the presentation.On page six of the presentation there is a chart showing that year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-mo...

Recession Update: Part 1 of 2

ECRI — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 09:13:00 -0500

Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg's Tom Keene to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.Click here to download the presentation images and notes.

Interview: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 16:45:00 -0500

Lakshman Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years.To see a chart of the official coincident indicators used to determine recession dates, including GDP, please see page three of the presentation.Stock prices can rise during recession, please see page twelve.On page 15 of the presentation you can view the operating earnings char...

Chicago

ECRI — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 13:53:00 -0500

On March 4 and 5 ECRI principals will be visiting Chicago to meet with professional members.

Global Economy Turning a Corner?

ECRI — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 16:40:57 -0500

Since 2007, the world’s central banks have flooded the financial system with trillions of dollars in liquidity to combat weaker-than-expected growth and to avert deflation. Repeated stimulus has allayed some observers’ fears, particularly through boosted market prices. But has the Fed started to succeed in its aforementioned goals, or are we already in the midst of a global recession?ECRI’s lat...

ECRI WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 10:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week as the annualized growth rate also declined, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 128.5 in the week ended Feb 22 from a revised 129 the previous week. It was the lowest level since early January.The index's ann...

Oslo

ECRI — Thu, 28 Feb 2013 14:11:00 -0500

On February 28 and March 1 ECRI principals will be visiting Oslo, Norway to meet with professional members.

Has the U.S. Economy Dodged a Recession?

ECRI — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 09:12:56 -0500

Lately it seems that all economic releases are coming up roses – even last month’s slightly negative GDP report was widely hailed as the best-looking contraction one would ever see. Similarly, many felt the latest employment report held green shoots for job growth, despite an uptick in the jobless rate and weaker-than-expected payroll job growth. A higher-than-expected PMI number further cheere...

ECRI WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 10:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.1 in the week ended Feb. 15 from 129.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 129.6.The index's annual...

Is an Upturn in Corporate Debt Growth Imminent?

ECRI — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 09:24:00 -0500

ECRI has just updated its U.S. Leading Credit Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in nonfinancial corporate debt growth.Despite massive Fed easing, following the earlier downturn in the USLCrI, nonfinancial corporate debt growth has been weakening since late 2011, falling to a one-and-a-half-year low in its latest reading. But, with banks easing credit ...

Bahamas

ECRI — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 23:45:00 -0500

ECRI principals will be visiting the Bahamas from February 15 - 18 to meet with professional members.

ECRI WLI Dips

ECRI — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 10:34:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.6 in the week ended Feb. 8, from 130.2 the prior week.The index's annualized growth rate decreased to 8.3 percent fro...

Chinese Export Outlook

ECRI — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 09:22:04 -0500

In recent years, many have looked to China to be the locomotive of global growth. Thus, the better-than-expected readings in some of its key economic indicators have become part of the revival story for global economic growth.However, the health of the Chinese economy – the world’s largest exporter – also depends on a favorable global economic environment. While the surge in Chinese exports in ...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 10:33:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week, while the annualized growth rate improved to a fresh high of more than 2-1/2-years, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.2 in the week ended Feb 1 from 129.6 the previous week. That was originally reported...

Bank of England Lending Scheme Aims to Evade Triple-Dip

ECRI — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 09:00:50 -0500

ECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Amid fears of a triple-dip recession in the U.K., the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme , designed to increase credit availability for households and businesses, appears to have taken hold in December...

New Japanese Recession Date

ECRI — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 16:03:00 -0500

Today ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for Japan as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for Japan as April 2011.Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U....

Eurozone Unemployment and Consumer Spending

ECRI — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 09:37:41 -0500

With its unemployment rate holding at a record high of 11.7% in December, joblessness continues to bedevil the Eurozone, which remains mired in recession.Given the persistent labor market weakness faced by the consumer, it makes sense that Eurozone retail sales growth has lingered in negative territory for months. Against this backdrop, ECRI’s latest analysis reviews the cyclical drivers of une...

Consumer Spending Prospects for Brazil

ECRI — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 09:46:03 -0500

Over the past decade Brazil has propelled over 35 million people into its middle class through dramatic growth and economic change, but the recent consensus view on the Brazilian economy has been muddled with pessimism. A key driver of growth for the South American mainstay has been the consumer, with household consumption accounting for about 60% of the Brazil’s GDP.If the consumer pulls back ...

ECRI WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 10:34:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, though the annualized growth rate rose to its highest level in more than 2-1/2 years, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 129.7 in the week ended Jan 25 from 130.7 the previous week. That was originally reporte...

Price Pressures Still Rising in January

ECRI — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 10:16:00 -0500

Even after the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, inflation pressures picked up at the start of 2013, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge increased to 105.2 last month, from 104.4 in December."While pointing to somewhat higher U.S. inflation pressures, the USFIG has not yet seen a pronounced, pervasive and persi...

Euro zone inflation pressures ease to 34-month low

ECRI — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 04:30:00 -0500

Euro zone inflation is likely to fall as price pressures eased in December to a near three-year low, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, dropped to 92.1 from November's 93.2, as similar national indicators fell in Germany and France but nudged up in Italy and Spain."Falling ag...

Spanish Consumer Getting Squeezed

ECRI — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 16:52:41 -0500

ECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.The Spanish inflation rate is only a few months removed from one of its highest readings since the Global Financial Crisis, and remains an albatross for an economy entering its fifth year of recession. With a new law making it easi...

U.S. Manufacturing Outlook

ECRI — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 10:00:56 -0500

The latest headline for durable goods orders has convinced some observers that the U.S. manufacturing sector is now on a stable road to recovery. However, the less volatile year-over-year percentage change of new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft was rather disappointing.In this context, ECRI’s U.S. Leading Manufacturing Index , which is designed to anticipate turning poin...

Japan and Recession Number Six

ECRI — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 09:29:05 -0500

In a recent speech to the Diet, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised the rebirth of the Japanese economy using a strategy that would focus on “a bold monetary policy, a flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy that will encourage greater private-sector investment." That same day, the Japanese Cabinet also forecast that the Japanese economy would grow at 2.5% in 2013. Japanese policyma...

Underlying Prospects for Global Growth

ECRI — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 08:01:55 -0500

With U.S. fiscal cliff fears fading and concerns about the Eurozone receding, dread has dwindled in the mainstream of late. Does this shifting perspective represent the economic reality facing many nations globally?ECRI’s long leading indicators reveal the trajectory for economic growth in key countries over the coming months, including the outlook for industrial growth prospects. This growth ...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 10:34:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week, while the annualized growth rate also climbed to put both measures at their highest levels since April 2011, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 130.6 in the week ended Jan 18 from 130.4 the previous week. The ...

Unlimited Quantitative Easing and the Inflation Cycle

ECRI — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 10:32:20 -0500

Last September, the Fed announced that unlimited quantitative easing would continue until the job market situation improves considerably. With that declaration, the Fed went all-in trying to raise inflation expectations with the hope of incentivizing people to make purchases sooner rather than later, thereby boosting near-term economic activity. While the success of this strategy remains in que...

What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

ECRI — Sat, 19 Jan 2013 06:32:28 -0500

With some of the coincident indicators used to determine official recession dates rising above their mid-2012 highs, there is a popular perception that the U.S. economy avoided recession in 2012, and is poised to improve in the months ahead. Furthermore, growth in ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index has climbed to a three-month high. Does any of this negate ECRI’s recession call?ECRI’s latest report an...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 18 Jan 2013 10:33:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week to its highest since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also strengthened, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.4 in the week ended Jan. 11 from a revised 128.1 the previous week, which was origina...

Outlook for Chinese Real Estate

ECRI — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 14:17:48 -0500

Chinese stocks have rallied in recent in months largely driven by positive news from the housing market, which is crucial to the overall Chinese economy. Residential housing has shown signs of strength with home prices improving across provinces.In mid-2012 ECRI’s Chinese Leading Home Price Index , which predicted that Chinese home prices would firm, also anticipated a rise in the Shenzhen Stoc...

Is Bundesbank’s Jobless Rate Forecast Too Sanguine?

ECRI — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 16:43:00 -0500

The Bundesbank’s latest forecast shows a darkening outlook for the German economy, as it expects slowing export growth and negative-to-flat GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. However, in an economy where exports account for half of GDP, the German central bank does not expect unemployment to be affected much.ECRI’s analysis determines if the Bundesbank’s see...

Quick Recognition of Shifts in Long-Term Trends

ECRI — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 15:20:55 -0500

Many explanations have been put forward for the disappointing growth that followed the Global Financial Crisis in a number of countries, including the theory that longer-term economic growth prospects may have fundamentally changed. In cases like this, it is critical to promptly detect if the economy is experiencing a typical cyclical -- and therefore temporary -- event, or whether there is a f...

Where are Export Prices Headed?

ECRI — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 10:56:22 -0500

In the U.S., export price inflation has flagged recently, falling to its lowest reading in almost three years. Regarding trade itself, in October, goods exports dropped to its lowest level in almost a year, helping to widen the trade deficit.This is happening on the heels of monetary easing around the globe, which some have hoped would spur the competitiveness of exports. ECRI’s latest study ou...

ECRI WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 10:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth dropped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 126.4 in the week ended Dec. 28 from a revised 127.6 the previous week. That was originally reported as 128.3.The index's a...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

ECRI — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 09:56:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.0 from an upwardly revised 102.6 in November, originally reported as 102.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With the USFIG staying in a rising trend over the past year, U.S. inflation pressures have increased somewhat," ECRI Chief Op...

Eurozone Inflation Pressures Remain Low

ECRI — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 08:44:00 -0500

Euro zone inflation could continue to fall as price pressures held steady in November, hovering near June's 27-month low, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends published on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute held at 92.2 in November, as similar national gauges fell in Germany but rose in Italy and Spain. France's ...

Bank of Korea Receives Mixed Signals

ECRI — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 17:00:24 -0500

ECRI has just updated its Korean Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Korean inflation.Korean inflation declined to 1.4% in December, a four-month low. While the Bank of Korea cut rates twice in 2012, inflation remains well below the BoK’s recently tightened target band of 2.5% to 3.5%, which some analysts see as an op...

Central Banks vs. Weaker Economies

ECRI — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 09:52:52 -0500

The transition to 2013 has been stubbornly uncertain so far in terms of U.S. fiscal policy. Monetary policy, on the other hand, has in essence “doubled down” around the world, as central banks pitch in to push back on recession with the tools they have access to. ECRI’s latest report outlines some lesser-known measures of economic activity – revealing surprising shifts that have already taken h...

The Fiscal Cliff

ECRI — Mon, 31 Dec 2012 13:30:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins MSNBC at 1:30 PM to discuss the ongoing fiscal cliff deliberations in Washington.

What’s to Come for Home Prices?

ECRI — Mon, 31 Dec 2012 09:40:33 -0500

With many hoping for sustained U.S. economic growth, climbing home prices have become a key source of optimism that the housing market will bolster the economy. Conversely, others have a view that the housing market has yet to bottom. With the update of ECRI’s Leading Home Price Index, our latest report provides clear direction as to what lies ahead, including whether home prices will continue ...

New U.K. Business Cycle Dates

ECRI — Sat, 29 Dec 2012 07:00:00 -0500

Today ECRI is announcing the latest business cycle peak for the United Kingdom as August 2010, and the latest growth rate cycle trough date for the United Kingdom as May 2011. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a...

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 11:03:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved in the latest week to its highest since August 2011, while the annualized growth rate also accelerated, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week ended Dec. 21 from 127.2 the previous week.The index's annualized g...

Can the Fed Piece the Economy Back Together?

ECRI — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 21:19:00 -0500

The Fed recently revised both its methods and “guideposts” for implementing accommodative policy.While some have argued that the weakness in the job market and the overall economy can be countered with central bank intervention, others think that weak growth in the economy, including employment, is more structural in nature and cannot be changed by quantitative easing alone.ECRI’s latest report...

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 11:18:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked lower last week, though the annualized growth rate picked up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 127.2 in the week ended Dec 14 from 127.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 127.7.The index's annualized g...

Assessing Korean Inflation Risks

ECRI — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 09:55:48 -0500

In November the Korean inflation rate fell to a three-month low, dipping below the Bank of Korea’s inflation target of two to four percent. Some market observers, disappointed that the BoK decided not to lower its policy rate further to stimulate the Korean economy, continue to expect more policy easing. At the same time, inflation remains above its August low and the latest decline could just ...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 10:33:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.7 in the week ended Dec 7 from 126.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 126.8.The index's annualized growth rate cl...

Timing a Turn in Eurozone Unemployment

ECRI — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 15:38:01 -0500

With the Eurozone unemployment rate increasing steadily since mid-2011, and reaching a new record high of 11.7% in October, the problem of Eurozone joblessness has proven both persistent and increasingly severe.ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the trajectory of the Eurozone unemployment rate, indicating whether the rising tide of joblessness is set to turn anytime soon.

The U.S. Drought and Food Prices

ECRI — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 09:23:43 -0500

American farmers recently sustained the worst drought in decades, afflicting significant portions of the nation’s corn, soybean, and wheat harvest – crops that are staples, through inputs like processed food and livestock feed, of the consumer’s grocery bundle.Some assert that aftershocks of the drought may include a hit to American households through higher food prices, yet others have contend...

Definitional Indicators of Recession

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 16:51:00 -0500

Lakshman Achuthan speaks with Larry Kudlow, who knew ECRI founder, Geoffrey H. Moore. They discuss how many of the indicators used to define official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year.

Remembering Geoffrey H. Moore

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 16:46:00 -0500

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 21 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definit...

Underlying Eurozone Inflation Near 27-Month Low

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 16:01:00 -0500

Euro zone price pressures fell in October close to June's 27-month low, easing in three of the bloc's biggest economies, an indicator designed to forecast inflation trends showed on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute fell to 93.3 in October from 93.7 in September, as similar national gauges fell in France, Spain and Italy and held steady...

Definitional Recession Indicators

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 09:50:00 -0500

Lakshman talks with Larry Kudlow, who knew ECRI's founder, Geoffrey H. Moore. They discuss how many of the indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates for almost a century have now been falling since mid-year.

Eurozone Inflation Pressures Approach 27-Month Low

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 09:00:00 -0500

Who was Geoffrey H. Moore?

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 08:55:00 -0500

The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 08:50:00 -0500

Following our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing in December 2011. Based on the historical lead times of ECRI’s leading indexes, we concluded that, if it didn’t start in the first quarter of 2012, it was very likely to begin by mid-year. But we also made it clear at the time that you wouldn’t know whether or not we were wrong until the end of 2012. And so it’s interes...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 08:49:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 102.5 from an upwardly revised 103.6 in October, originally reported as 103.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its latest dip, the USFIG remains above the lows of the summer," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said i...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 08:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, while the annualized growth rate also picked up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.8 in the week ended Nov 30 from 126.2 the previous week. That was originally reported as 126.3.The index's annualized g...

Upcoming TV Interview

ECRI — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 16:10:00 -0500

Thursday at 7:00PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Larry Kudlow on CNBC to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Japan Facing Fifth Recession in 15 Years

ECRI — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 08:25:06 -0500

ECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Last month, growth concerns prompted the Japanese Cabinet to announce its second stimulus package in as many months, with November’s $10.7 billion package coming on the heels of October’s $5.1 billion stimulus. If th...

Cyclical Crosscurrents in the U.K. Economy

ECRI — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 09:10:27 -0500

The U.K. has been experiencing economic turbulence including two recessions in the past five years, separated by only a brief expansion in 2010. Recently, the third quarter GDP showed positive growth, but many still remain unsure about the U.K.’s economic situation. Some are calling for a “triple-dip” recession, noting that GDP growth has simply been pushed up by one-off events like the Olympic...

Global Industrial Contractions and Budget Projections

ECRI — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 08:10:55 -0500

Industrial production is contracting in every G7 economy and all of the BRICS, with the exception of China. Particularly within the G7 economies, these concerted downturns have intensified of late.At the same time, often cited U.S. Congressional Budget Office projections show that real GDP growth will average 4.3% from 2014 through 2017. However, since the start of the century average real GDP ...

ECRI WLI Growth Slips

ECRI — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week, though the annualized growth rate pulled back for a fourth week in a row, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.3 in the week ended Nov 23 from 125.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 125.7.The index...

ECRI Recession Update

ECRI — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 13:12:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins CNN International's Ali Velshi to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Ignore GDP and the Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Is Already in Recession

ECRI — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 13:04:00 -0500

Official Recession Indicators

ECRI — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 10:00:00 -0500

CNN's Ali Velshi discusses ECRI's recession call and reviews the official recession indicators.

Upcoming TV Interview

ECRI — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 09:41:00 -0500

Thursday at 9:45 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on CNN International to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Recession Underway

ECRI — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 09:36:00 -0500

Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been weakening since mid-2012.

Upcoming TV Interview

ECRI — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 06:00:00 -0500

Thursday at 6:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Upcoming TV Interview

ECRI — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 09:16:00 -0500

Thursday at 6:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Labor Market Paradox

ECRI — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 09:05:40 -0500

Over a recent two-month period, the jobless rate fell half a percentage point, bolstering the belief that the U.S. economy has dodged recession. At the same time, job growth remains weaker than in any other expansion on record. How is it possible for anemic job growth to fuel such a drop in the unemployment rate?ECRI’s research investigates the cyclical and structural drivers of labor force gro...

ECRI WLI Growth Falls

ECRI — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 11:06:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 2-week high in the latest week even as the annualized growth rate decreased to an 8-week low, a research group said on Wednesday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.7 in the week ended Nov. 16 from 125.2 the previous week. That was its highest since N...

ECRI WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth decreased to an eight-week low in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate also fell, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 125.4 in the week-ended Nov. 9 from 126.1 the previous week. That was the lowest level since Sept. 14....

U.K. Home Price Outlook

ECRI — Mon, 12 Nov 2012 10:25:15 -0500

U.K. home prices have been drifting down for some time, and currently stand some 20% below their 2007 peak. In the years since, the U.K. economy has been dogged by periods of negative GDP growth, serious long-term unemployment, and ongoing uncertainty stemming from the Eurozone crisis. In line with the stream of generally weak U.K. economic data, most housing experts expect the downward drift i...

ECRI WLI Drops

ECRI — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 10:34:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic expansion hit a five-week low last week, as did the index's annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 126.2 in the week ended Nov. 2 from 126.6 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate dipped to 5.1 percent fro...

San Francisco

ECRI — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 09:00:00 -0500

On November 7 ECRI principals will be visiting San Francisco to meet with professional members.

Cyclical Outlook for the Korean Economy

ECRI — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 16:51:33 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.On the heels of news that Korean export growth fell 5.6% in the third quarter, the Bank of Korea reported last week that third quarter GDP growth expanded at its weakest pace in three years, growing at just 1.6%. Howeve...

ECRI WLI Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked lower last week, while the annualized growth rate also cooled slightly, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 126.6 in the week ended Oct 26 from 126.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 126.8.The index's a...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

ECRI — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 09:47:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 103.5 from an upwardly revised 103.6 in September, originally reported as 103.4, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its latest downtick, the USFIG remains close to its September high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan s...

Euro Inflation Pressures Remain Low

ECRI — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 05:00:00 -0400

Euro zone inflation should fall in the coming months, according to an indicator designed to forecast trends in inflation, which showed price pressures eased in September to close to June's 27-month low.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute , fell to 93.4 from 94.2 in August, data showed on Friday. Similar national gauges rose in Spain and Italy,...

Higher VAT Hits Spanish Consumer

ECRI — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 16:47:05 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Spanish Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Spanish inflation.With September’s increase in the value-added tax helping push the inflation rate to a 17-month high in October, Spain now has spiking inflation to worry about. Furthermore, year-over-year retail sales fell 11% in September.The ESFI...

Assessing Global Sectoral Synchronization

ECRI — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 11:04:11 -0400

Years ago ECRI demonstrated that global interdependence had resulted in fairly synchronized economic cycles, particularly since the 1990s, stemming from increasing financial and trade linkages. Still, with the U.S. showing some “better-than-expected” economic releases, the decoupling meme has reemerged.Expanding on our earlier research of global economic synchronization, ECRI has just completed...

London

ECRI — Tue, 30 Oct 2012 13:33:00 -0400

On October 29 and 30 ECRI principals will be visiting London to meet with professional members.

Toronto

ECRI — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 09:13:00 -0400

On October 29 ECRI principals will be visiting Toronto to meet with professional members.

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic expansion edged up last week, though the annualized growth rate declined for the first time since June, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained slightly to 126.8 in the week ended Oct. 19 from 126.6 the previous week.The prior week's number was ...

Global Industrial Growth and Chinese Stimulus

ECRI — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 09:23:30 -0400

The latest purchasing managers survey data – showing upticks in China and the U.S. – sparked hope that perhaps the downturns in these two economies had run their courses, though weakness in Europe tampered expectations. Meanwhile, markets continue to hope for new Chinese stimulus.ECRI’s latest report outlines clearly whether this recent manufacturing data heralds a change in the direction of in...

U.S. Home Price Outlook

ECRI — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:18:53 -0400

The housing market crash, which preceded the Great Recession and sparked a meltdown in financial markets in 2008, has long been a serious drag on the economy. Much of the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy in recent years has been aimed at propping up the housing market, though with limited effect.Now, more than three years after the Great Recession ended, positive housing data is fueling h...

ECRI WLI Drops

ECRI — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth declined in the latest week, although the annualized growth rate rose to its highest since May 2011, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to a two week low at 126.7 in the week ended Oct 12 from 127.6 the previous week. That was original...

Assessing the Current Optimism

ECRI — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 09:28:29 -0400

Some recently released economic data has been better than the consensus had expected including the drop in the jobless rate in September. Meanwhile, the housing market has been showing signs of improvement, while equity markets have been rising and consumer confidence has spiked. All of this positive news is fueling hope that stronger consumer spending will help to power economic growth in comi...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic expansion pushed higher last week, while the annualized growth rate rose to its loftiest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index increased to 127.7 in the week ended Oct. 5 from a revised 126.2 the previous week. The prior we...

Taiwan Export Prospects

ECRI — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 16:30:55 -0400

In August, Taiwan’s official GDP forecast for 2012 was revised down for the eighth time this year. Since exports account for around 75% of Taiwanese GDP it is helpful to understand the cyclical risks to Taiwanese export growth.In this context, ECRI’s Taiwanese Leading Exports Index , which anticipates cyclical turning points in Taiwanese exports, plays an important role. The growth rate of the ...

Canadian Exports Outlook

ECRI — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 14:46:16 -0400

Recent data for Canadian exports have indicated weakened conditions for that nation: not only has the trade deficit surged to its highest level on record, but Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S., by far its largest export destination, shriveled to its lowest reading in almost two years.With a global economic slowdown underway, many wonder whether these developments are signs of a more sustaine...

German Export Growth Prospects

ECRI — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 10:27:54 -0400

Since the spring of 2010, German export growth has been in a cyclical downswing, which is a discouraging trend for an economy where exports have equaled about 50% of GDP in recent years. Therefore, many were pleasantly surprised by the recent uptick in year-over-year German export growth.ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the likely trajectory of German export growth, indicating whether the recen...

ECRI WLI Dips

ECRI — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic expansion eased modestly last week though the annualized growth rate continued to climb, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 126.3 in the week ended Sept. 28 from a revised 126.6 the previous week. The previous week's number was origin...

ECRI Inflation Gauge Jumps

ECRI — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 09:43:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 103.4 from an upwardly revised 101.0 in August, originally reported as 100.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG jumped in September to an 18-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, U.S. infl...

U.K. Future Inflation Gauge Subdued

ECRI — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 05:00:00 -0400

ECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.U.K. CPI inflation has more than halved over the past year, but remains stubbornly above the Bank of England’s 2% target. At the moment, the consensus expects the BoE to expand its bond-purchasing program in November. While man...

Eurozone inflation pressures stay low in August

ECRI — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 04:30:00 -0400

Euro zone inflationary pressures stayed weak in August despite increasing a tad from the previous month, suggesting inflation could continue to fall, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge inched up to 94.0 in August from 93.8 in July.'While the EZFIG increased in August, it stayed well below last year's highs and remains near June's 27...

A Turning Point for Japan?

ECRI — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 16:28:41 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Japanese Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.While the Bank of Japan’s mid-September announcement to expand its asset-purchase program was not anticipated by the consensus, recent data seem to support the BoJ’s action. Last week’s data releases showed Japanese i...

Is the Chinese Cyclical Downturn Over?

ECRI — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 09:17:30 -0400

With second quarter year-over-year GDP growth falling to a three-year low, the Chinese slowdown, which ECRI has been predicting all year, has proven to be protracted and severe. As a result, hopes that China would be the locomotive of growth for the troubled global economy have been dashed, but, more recently the People’s Bank of China also introduced a new round of monetary stimulus in an effo...

As Money Pours Down, It’s No Wonder That Stocks Are Up

ECRI — Sun, 30 Sep 2012 06:00:00 -0400

The markets are getting plenty of help from the world’s big central banks. Will it be enough to keep the current rally going?The overall economy is sluggish at best, and unemployment has remained above 8 percent since early 2009. Yet despite a decline last week, stock investors have been on a roll. In the three months ended on Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 5.8 percent. In E...

Updated Growth Rate Cycle Dates

ECRI — Sun, 30 Sep 2012 05:41:00 -0400

We have recently updated the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Switzerland as October 2010.You can download the complete international history of business and growth rate cycle dates from ECRI's cycle chronologies page.

USA sind mitten in einer Rezession

ECRI — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 14:06:00 -0400

Nach starken geldpolitischen Interventionen der grossen Zentralbanken der Welt boomen die Börsen. Die bekannten amerikanischen Aktienindizes sind nicht mehr weit von den Allzeithochs entfernt, die sie noch kurz vor der Krise erreicht hatten. Mit der Realwirtschaft habe das jedoch wenig zu tun, erklärt Lakshman Achuthan.Der Manager und Mitbegründer des aufgrund seiner bisher recht präzisen Progn...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic expansion continued to improve last week, and the annualized growth rate reached its highest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.7 in the week ended Sept. 21 from a revised 125.3 the previous week. That was origina...

What Comes Next for Global Industrial Growth?

ECRI — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 09:16:15 -0400

To the surprise of many, industrial growth around the world has kept falling – a development that ECRI predicted in the early spring. However, many have been caught off-guard not only by the slowing itself, but by how widespread this weakness has been, leaving few economies untouched. Today, hopes for the global economy hinge on a cyclical revival in industrial production. Our latest report upd...

Cyclical Forces on Inflation and Deflation

ECRI — Mon, 24 Sep 2012 09:29:08 -0400

The 1970s experience of stagflation not only revealed that weak economic growth does not automatically translate to low inflation, but also led our research group to determine that that inflation moves in cycles distinct in timing from those in economic growth. Since then, ECRI has developed leading indexes to anticipate inflation cycle peaks and troughs for ten economies around the globe.Given...

WLI Rises Again

ECRI — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 10:41:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth climbed last week, while the annualized growth rate rose to its highest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.4 in the week ended Sept 14 from 124.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 124.9.Th...

QEternity and the Business Cycle

ECRI — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 09:11:18 -0400

Last week, the Fed announced an aggressive plan of ongoing monetary accommodation aimed at reviving weak labor market conditions. Since then, the debate has been raging. Will QE3 “help nudge” the U.S. economy towards higher growth or is it a recipe for higher long-term inflation?ECRI’s latest analysis of the long-run cyclical dynamics of U.S. growth and inflation alongside such unprecedented st...

Diverging Commodity Currencies

ECRI — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 09:52:27 -0400

Between the crisis in Europe and the near-zero interest rates in the U.S. and Japan, investors have sought out currencies underpinned by commodity exports.ECRI’s latest study reveals a marked divergence that has recently arisen between three such currencies: the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone, and the Russian ruble. Our latest study shows how varying sensitivity to global economic curre...

Where is Chinese Inflation Headed?

ECRI — Tue, 18 Sep 2012 09:24:29 -0400

After easing since last summer, Chinese inflation ticked up in August on rising food prices. Thus, the consensus view has shifted in a direction suggesting that China’s monetary policy options are now more limited than they appeared last month, when Chinese inflation fell to a two-and-a-half-year low.However, beyond the official headline inflation number, the data offer important details about ...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week, rising to its highest level in four months, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.9 in the week ended Sept 7 from an upwardly revised 124.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.7.The index's a...

The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 11:41:00 -0400

It has been almost a year since we predicted a recession. Back in December, we went on to specify the time frame for it to begin: if not by the first quarter of the year, then by mid-2012. But we also said at the time that the recession would not be evident before the end of the year. In other words, nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that w...

Recession Update

ECRI — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 11:40:00 -0400

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession.

TV Interview

ECRI — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 09:33:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg TV at 6:20 AM on Thursday, Sep. 13.

A Different Look at the Employment Situation

ECRI — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 10:44:24 -0400

Last week’s jobs report surprised the consensus to the downside, revealing for some a sense of weakness that was unexpected in the U.S. labor market.Aside from recent monthly numbers, ECRI’s latest study underscores structural changes in employment dynamics, which will impact the jobs market in addition to its current cyclical moves.

Vienna

ECRI — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 12:00:00 -0400

ECRI principals will visit Vienna to meet with professional members on September 5 - 7, 2012.

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 10:37:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.7 in the week ended Aug. 31 from 123.5 the prior week.The index's annualized growth rate improved to 1.0 percent in the m...

Recession Evidence Obscured in Real Time

ECRI — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 09:52:02 -0400

In recent weeks, several key coincident indicators have surprised the consensus to the upside, bolstering the belief that the U.S. economy has dodged recession. Even though the latest releases may show increases, earlier data have almost uniformly been revised downward, a reality largely ignored by many. For example, after revisions, there is a net gain of only 55,000 jobs in today’s payroll jo...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Slips

ECRI — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 09:46:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 100.6 from a downwardly revised 100.8 in July, originally reported as 100.9, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG remains in a cyclical downswing. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures continue to trend downward," ECRI Chief Operations Officer L...

Deflation Demon Prodding Bank of Japan

ECRI — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 09:18:23 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Japanese Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in Japanese inflation.As deflation reemerges with the level of the Japanese CPI continuing its fall in July, there is growing concern that economic growth will contract in the second half of 2012. Given that the near-zero benchmark rate limits the Ban...

Eurozone Inflation Pressures Stay Weak

ECRI — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 04:30:00 -0400

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone remained weak in July, suggesting inflation would fall in the coming months, according to an indicator designed to forecast cyclical trends in inflation.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge nudged up to 94.1 in July from June's 27-month low of 93.2, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.Germany was the only country in the bloc's big four whi...

New Zealand Business Cycle Trough

ECRI — Thu, 06 Sep 2012 10:20:00 -0400

With data revisions now complete, we can determine that the most recent business cycle trough date for New Zealand was May 2009.Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder ...

What Does the WTO Mean for Russian Industrial Growth?

ECRI — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 09:43:01 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Russian Leading Industrial Production Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in Russian industrial growth.After Russia recently gained full membership into the World Trade Organization , the nation’s Deputy Economy Minister, Andrei Klepach, announced higher forecasts for industrial output growth in 2012 and 2013. This is somewh...

Is the Indian Economy Turning the Corner?

ECRI — Tue, 04 Sep 2012 09:18:59 -0400

With second quarter GDP growth, despite a minor uptick, staying lower than during the worst of the Global Financial Crisis, the Indian economy remains in a deep economic slowdown. Yet, consumer price inflation remains stubbornly high, with food price inflation staying in double digits. India has long been considered a domestically-driven economy, but its openness to the global economy has incre...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.6 in the week ended Aug. 24 from 123.3 the prior week. The index's annualized growth rate improved to +0.6 percent in t...

China Slows as Expected, but What Comes Next?

ECRI — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 10:42:16 -0400

Over the past few years, and especially as other economies have stumbled, it became an article of faith that emerging markets, in particular China, would manage to drive global growth. With China responsible for about a fifth of the world’s industrial output, such hope is understandable.Lately though, there has been a perceived shudder of weakness in Chinese economic indicators, notably for GDP...

Auf der Suche nach der Rezession in den USA

ECRI — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 16:40:00 -0400

Wie sich die Zeiten doch ändern: Wenn die amerikanische Konjunktur einst die dynamische Lokomotive der Weltwirtschaft war, so hat sie sich inzwischen in eine alte, rostige Zugmaschine verwandelt. Zwar wächst die amerikanische Wirtschaft noch, im ersten Quartal mit 2,0% und im zweiten Quartal mit 1,5%, doch manche Beobachter fürchten, die USA könnten in der zweiten Jahreshälfte in eine milde Rez...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved slightly, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 123.3 in the week ended August 17 from a revised 123.0 the prior week. That was originally reported as 122.8.The...

Has the U.S. Economy Turned the Corner?

ECRI — Mon, 20 Aug 2012 09:27:24 -0400

With recent U.S. economic data showing better-than-expected readings, the markets and consensus are increasingly upbeat about the economic outlook, including a belief that the U.S. economy has dodged a recession. A number of key coincident data, in particular July’s payroll job gains, are used to make this case.However, is this view warranted? ECRI’s latest analysis of the U.S. cyclical outlook...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 17 Aug 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week, while the annualized growth rate improved but still remained in negative territory, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.8 in the week ended Aug 10 from 122.5 the previous week. The index's annualized growth ra...

ECRI WLI Growth Flat

ECRI — Fri, 10 Aug 2012 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate remained at a nine-week high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.5 in the week ended August 3 from 122.1 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.2.The ind...

Chinese Home Price Outlook

ECRI — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 09:24:48 -0400

Thanks to an encouraging June reading for Chinese home price growth, the consensus is now more optimistic that Chinese home price growth will recover in the months ahead. The rise is commonly attributed in part to monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China, which has cut interest rates since early June to stimulate the economy. However, the outlook for Chinese home price growth had already i...

Inflation's Influence on the BoE

ECRI — Wed, 08 Aug 2012 11:45:41 -0400

In the wake of the Bank of England’s decision last month to renew quantitative easing, many saw U.K. CPI growth, which recently fell to a 31-month low, as a key factor. However, with weak economic growth persisting while inflation still remains above the BoE’s 2% target, the U.K.’s central bank faces the dilemma of promoting growth despite too high inflation.ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the...

Low Inflation Helps Germans, but Not Rest of Eurozone

ECRI — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 10:08:17 -0400

ECRI has just updated its German Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in German inflation.With German inflation falling to 1.7%, German consumer confidence surveys have improved of late despite the ongoing weakness in the Eurozone. The German inflation rate is also low relative to the Eurozone as a whole, where inflation ...

ECRI WLI Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.2 in the week ended July 27 from 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.8.The index's annualized growth rat...

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

ECRI — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 10:14:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.9 from a downwardly revised 100.7 in June, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."Despite its latest uptick, the USFIG remains below its earlier highs. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures continue to be fairly restraine...

Eurozone price pressures at 27-mth low

ECRI — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 04:00:00 -0400

Price pressures in the euro zone fell to a 27-month low in June, easing in all four of the bloc's biggest economies, according to an indicator by the Economic Cycle Research Institute designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation.German, French, Italian and Spanish June future inflation guages fell, pushing down the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge to 93.2 from 94.8 in May, ECR...

Australian Policymakers’ Confidence May Be Misguided

ECRI — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 21:19:21 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Australian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.Australia recently celebrated its 21st consecutive year of economic expansion, and the country’s low interest, inflation and unemployment rates have its policymakers content, with Treasurer Wayne Swan calling the c...

Monitoring the Russian Economy

ECRI — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 09:07:05 -0400

Since the economic reforms in the 1990s, Russia has moved toward a globally integrated economy from an isolated, centrally planned one. As a resource-rich country, Russia’s fortunes are closely tied to commodity prices and therefore the ups and downs of global industrial growth.Amid an unfolding global economic slowdown, ECRI’s new Russian Leading Industrial Production Index, which is designed ...

New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Russia and South Africa

ECRI — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 10:08:00 -0400

Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Russia and South Africa.ECRI recently announced the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. The addition of Russia further enhances our real-time global cyclical monitoring framework.Click here fo...

The Global Economy: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

ECRI — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 11:09:56 -0400

When trying to assess the macro state of the global economy, most know it is difficult to see the forest for the trees, particularly with so much information buffeting opinion one way or another. The consensus is prone to use the “freshest” data points, bit by bit, to form a broader picture of the global economy. This is often done without an overarching framework to make sense of seemingly co...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.8 in the week ended July 20 from 121.8 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.9.The index's annualized growth rate ro...

New Russian Leading Index

ECRI — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 15:02:00 -0400

ECRI announces the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. The addition of Russia further enhances our real-time global cyclical monitoring framework.To understand national economic cycles increasingly requires an appreciation of international cyclical dyna...

What Ails Jobs Growth Happened A Long Time Ago

ECRI — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 09:23:54 -0400

Although four million net new jobs have been added during the U.S. employment revival, there is near-universal disappointment in the labor market because more than twice as many jobs were lost during the downturn. Moreover, ongoing jobs weakness is in direct contrast to the “V-shaped” recovery from the Great Recession that many expected.ECRI’s analysis of the patterns of job losses and gains in...

Likely Start Date of U.S. Recession

ECRI — Mon, 23 Jul 2012 08:58:48 -0400

Just a couple of months ago, the prevailing consensus was that the U.S. economy would forge ahead despite Europe’s woes. More recently, many economists have begun to change their forecast, adopting a more pessimistic view of the economy.ECRI’s co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, developed the first-ever leading indicators of recession and recovery more than six decades ago based on the key drivers o...

ECRI WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 20 Jul 2012 10:32:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.9 in the week ended July 13 from 122.9 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.2.The index's annualized growth ra...

Global Youth Jobs Crisis

ECRI — Thu, 19 Jul 2012 09:03:38 -0400

High youth unemployment is increasingly becoming a global phenomenon, with youth joblessness rising above 50% in countries like Greece and Spain, while in other developed economies it is well into the double digits. ECRI first highlighted this crisis in the spring of 2011. Since then, youth joblessness has continued to grow around the world.In this context, ECRI has just completed an in-depth s...

Can Consumers Save the German Economy?

ECRI — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 11:10:06 -0400

The Bundesbank raised its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.6% in June partly on the expectation of strong domestic consumption. With government spending set near 2011’s level, the bank is counting on the German consumer as a driver of growth, even though household consumption growth increased only marginally in the first quarter of 2012. ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies if the German con...

Cold Facts Are Getting in Investors’ Way

ECRI — Sun, 15 Jul 2012 08:00:00 -0400

IN the middle of a hot summer, the last thing anyone needs is more bad news about the economy.Mountain breezes and ocean waves, ice-cold beer and frosty ice cream — these refreshing things bring a smile when the temperature rises. But bleak economic reports? No one really wants to hear about them.Yet the unpleasant news has been pouring in anyway, and not just from the usual trouble spots, like...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to an eight-week high in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate rose to a five-week high, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.2 in the week ended July 6 from 121.9 the previous week, the highest level since May 11, ...

Australian Export Prospects

ECRI — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 08:52:33 -0400

The stronger-than-expected Australian export figures for May have bolstered confidence in the Australian economy’s ability to withstand the global economic headwinds. Particularly, record Chinese imports raised hopes that the Australian economy could escape unscarred from the current global economic turmoil.Despite these developments Australian export growth has slowed considerably from its mid...

Recession Here

ECRI — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 07:00:00 -0400

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun.

Cyclical Outlook Interview

ECRI — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 07:00:00 -0400

At 7:00 AM on Tuesday July 10 Lakshman Achuthan will join Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Cyclical Outlook Interview

ECRI — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 06:59:00 -0400

At 3:00 PM on Tuesday July 10 Lakshman Achuthan will join Maria Bartiromo on CNBC's Closing Bell to discuss the cyclical outlook.

The Threat From a Recession

ECRI — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 07:00:00 -0400

An economic downturn would strike a big blow to the raw-materials sector.Investors in commodities need to watch out.Fresh data show the U.S. economy is weakening. The economy added a paltry 80,000 jobs in June, not enough to keep up with population growth. Earlier last week, we learned the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. Other indicators have been equ...

ECRI WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, as did the annualized growth rate, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.9 in the week ended June 29, from 121.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.5.The index's annualized grow...

ECRI Inflation Gauge Slips

ECRI — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 09:55:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dropped to 101.2 from an unrevised 102.3 in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."With its latest dip, the USFIG has dropped further below last year's cyclical high. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures are clearly in retreat," ECRI Chief Operations Officer La...

Euro Future Inflation Gauge, 26-month low

ECRI — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 04:30:00 -0400

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone fell to a 26-month low in May, easing in each of its four biggest economies, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical inflation trends.The future inflation gauge for Germany, France, Italy and Spain fell in May, pushing the Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge to 94.9 from 95.4 in April, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."The E...

Brazil’s Path to Growth

ECRI — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 09:06:49 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Brazilian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.With Brazil’s economy having slowed dramatically from its 7.5% rate of growth in 2010, policymakers have been cutting rates and enacting stimulus since last year in an attempt to boost growth. In April, the governme...

ECRI WLI Growth Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth increased in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to an 18-week low, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.5 in the week ended June 22 from 121.2 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.3.The index...

Shifting Global Industrial Outlook

ECRI — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 09:27:10 -0400

Global industrial growth has indeed been moderating as shown by recent weakness in related coincident data. In fact, late last year ECRI forecast a global industrial slowdown when at the time there was a prevailing perception that the U.S. economy would forge ahead despite Europe’s crisis. While this optimistic consensus view has begun to dim, ECRI’s long leading indexes for global industrial g...

U.S. Construction Sector Growth Prospects

ECRI — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 09:31:52 -0400

With strong readings for housing starts and building permits, hopes are rising that construction sector growth will remain healthy in the months ahead.To assess whether the construction sector can lead the way for more economic growth, it is useful to consult ECRI’s U.S. Leading Construction Index . The USLCI anticipates turning points in construction sector growth and from its latest reading t...

ECRI WLI Drops

ECRI — Fri, 22 Jun 2012 10:34:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate hit a 17-week low, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.3 in the week ended June 15 from 121.8 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.9.The index's annualize...

Clarifying Where We are in the Business Cycle

ECRI — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 10:18:52 -0400

A shiver of foreboding moved through the consensus earlier this month as the latest jobs data confirmed for the mainstream that renewed job market weakness was more than a “blip,” a realization that ECRI has been predicting for some months now.Moving beyond the broad labor market downtrend, ECRI’s latest report presents clear cyclical patterns within the jobs data that underlay the overall move...

ECRI WLI Growth Falls

ECRI — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 10:35:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.9 in the week ended June 8 from 121.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121.6. The index's annualized ...

China’s Export Outlook

ECRI — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 09:47:17 -0400

The first rate cut since 2008 and further loosening of banks’ lending and deposit rates by the People’s Bank of China provide further indications that the Chinese economy may have slowed more than Chinese policymakers had bargained for when they clamped on the brakes in 2011. Part of the story is exports growth, which had long been one of the main drivers of the Chinese economy.In coming months...

ECRI WLI Drops Again

ECRI — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.6 in the week ended June 1 from 122.3 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 2.0 percent f...

Oslo

ECRI — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 17:13:00 -0400

ECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.

U.S. FIG Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 11:25:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 102.3 from an upwardly revised 101.4 in April, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“Though the USFIG increased in its latest reading, it remains below last year’s cyclical high. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures are stil...

WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 10:33:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth weakened in the latest week to the lowest level in nearly five months, while the annualized growth rate also faltered, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.4 in the week ended May 25 from 123.0 the previous week. That was originall...

Eurozone Inflation Pressures at 25-Month Low in April

ECRI — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 09:43:00 -0400

Price pressures in the euro zone fell to a 25-month low in April, easing in all four core countries, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge , fell to 96.0 in April from 98.2 in March, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."Euro zone inflation pressures remain in a clear cyclical downswing," said Lakshman Achutha...

Assessing Economic Risks in Canada

ECRI — Thu, 31 May 2012 09:24:54 -0400

In contrast to many countries that are looking for ways to bolster economic growth, the OECD suggests that Canada should now raise their short-term interest rates. However, with mounting uncertainty in Europe and the U.S., and slowing economic growth in China, is this a good idea for an export-dependent economy? Furthermore, worries about a possible Canadian housing bubble are also spreading.I...

More Signs of Global Economic Stress

ECRI — Tue, 29 May 2012 09:24:39 -0400

Although the consensus is roiling amid “new” concerns that Chinese growth is facing a significant downturn, ECRI’s forward-looking Chinese leading indexes have been predicting the looming weakness for some time.Our latest update reveals the direction that Chinese growth and inflation will take in coming months, not to mention the implications of a few cyclical nuances that have emerged – many ...

WLI Drops

ECRI — Fri, 25 May 2012 10:25:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week, while the annualized growth rate also waned, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 123.1 in the week ended May 18 from 124.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 124.5. The index's annualized growth r...

U.S. Job Growth Prospects

ECRI — Thu, 24 May 2012 08:06:22 -0400

Stronger U.S. jobs growth earlier this year had many hoping for a sustained economic recovery. Instead, U.S. job growth has weakened since its February peak alongside other disappointing economic data. As a result, the overall mood regarding recovery has dimmed a bit lately. Regardless, the consensus still believes that job growth will firm in months ahead.In this context, it is useful to exami...

Drivers of Inflation and Interest Rates

ECRI — Mon, 21 May 2012 09:41:48 -0400

Asynchronous recessions among major world economies in the second half of the 1990s allowed the U.S. to enjoy low inflation and healthy growth, as the Fed was able to keep interest rates low in the context of imported disinflation. Currently, however, inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, while economic growth is clearly slowing. ECRI has just completed a new study on the direction of inflati...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 18 May 2012 10:23:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 124.5 in the week ended May 11 from an unrevised 125.4 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate rose to 0.4 perce...

Can the Fed Save the Day?

ECRI — Fri, 18 May 2012 09:38:49 -0400

The optimism about the U.S. economy prevalent less than two months ago has given way to a sense of foreboding.Almost on cue, the debate is returning to the potential for more quantitative easing by major central banks as a way of shoring things up. But is this realistic?ECRI’s latest analysis, based on our array of cyclical indexes of growth and inflation, shows just how effective such actions...

Rising GDP Doesn't Rule Out Recession

ECRI — Fri, 11 May 2012 11:29:00 -0400

Yes, U.S. GDP is still rising, according to the latest reports. But that doesn’t mean we’ve dodged a new recession.Sound surprising? What most people don’t understand is that recessions often begin when gross domestic product is still showing positive growth.Four of the past six recessions started during a quarter when GDP was growing, as did 72% of all recessions in the past 94 years[1].How c...

WLI Growth Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 11 May 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, but the annualized growth rate remained in negative territory after a downward revision to the previous week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.4 in the week ended May 4 from 124.6 the previous week. That w...

Free Market Economies Have Business Cycles

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 16:15:00 -0400

Many think recessions are some sort of "failure," and, if policy makers just did the "right thing," they could stave off recession indefinitely, meaning they could repeal the business cycle.

Is there really no recession?

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 14:16:00 -0400

Achuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.

Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:30:00 -0400

For the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions. In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession.Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? The answer is no.The chart depicts real...

Recession Update

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:00:00 -0400

For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.

Is there really no recession?

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 07:45:00 -0400

Business Cycle Can't Be Repealed

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 06:02:00 -0400

Achuthan and Costello discuss how recessions are part and parcel of free-market economies.

Update to Feb Interview

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 06:00:00 -0400

Achuthan discusses ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about half a year after a recession begins before a negative real-time GDP print is released.Note: Achuthan discusses the recessionary decline in jobs and income growth. To clarify, in the past 60 years we haven’t seen an economic slowdown where year-over-year jobs growth has dropped this low without r...

ECRI Interviews

ECRI — Wed, 09 May 2012 06:00:00 -0400

ECRI co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, will be interviewed today about the cyclical outlook at the following times: 6:10 AM – CNBC9:00 AM – CNN12:00 PM – Bloomberg

WLI Growth Slips

ECRI — Fri, 04 May 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week, but the annualized growth rate fell to zero, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.7 in the week ended April 27 from 124.0 the previous week. That was originally reported as 124.1. The index's annualized gro...

U.S. FIG Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 04 May 2012 09:51:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 101.2 from an upwardly revised 101.5 in March, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“The USFIG ticked up in the first quarter of this year, but has begun to ease again. Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain rela...

Toronto

ECRI — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 17:09:00 -0400

ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on April 30, 2012.

Australian Home Price Outlook

ECRI — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 11:02:41 -0400

While prices in the Australian property market have, at times, surged to bubble-worthy levels in recent years, they have recently cooled off, igniting a flurry of worry over whether a crash in the housing market is imminent. ECRI’s latest report, based on its forward-looking Australian Leading Home Price Index, clarifies the cyclical direction of home prices in the months ahead.

WLI Growth Slips Again

ECRI — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly last week, though the annualized growth rate pulled back to a four-week low, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.1 in the week ended April 20, from 123.8 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.9. Th...

New Global Cyclical Shifts Taking Hold

ECRI — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 09:34:16 -0400

While the mainstream accepts that there is concerted weakness in Europe, ECRI’s latest report presents evidence of new cyclical patterns arising with regard to specific sectors of global growth. Are we on the verge of a new leg of global cyclical weakness, or is there actually some underlying strength?

WLI Drops

ECRI — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 123.9 in the week ended April 13 from 125.9 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate dropped to 1.2 percen...

ECRI Insight: The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

Recovery vs. Recession

ECRI — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:12:57 -0400

It has become a universal article of faith that U.S. economic growth is steadily improving. Naturally, any recession fears are now considered distant memories.In its latest reading, the Fed’s popular “stall speed” measure of Gross Domestic Income growth also rose above its 2% recession threshold, further boosting optimism about the U.S. recovery. However, is such an optimistic view warranted?E...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth eased last week, though the annualized growth rate continued to improve, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 125.7 in the week ended April 6 from 126.3 the previous week.That was originally reported as 126.5. The index's annua...

Presentation

ECRI — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 18:30:00 -0400

On April 11 at 6:30 PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will give a private talk at the Cosmopolitan Club in New York.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 10:36:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.5 in the week ended March 30 from 125.8 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate rose to 1.0 percent from 0.0 p...

Inflation Gauge Dips

ECRI — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 10:25:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 101.2 from a revised 101.3 in February, originally reported as 101.4, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Some Dreary Forecasts From Recovery Skeptics

ECRI — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 10:07:00 -0400

Call them permabears. A solid six months of good and getting-better data — fewer Americans claiming unemployment benefits, rising industrial production and improving economic sentiment among them — have failed to convince them of the strength of the recovery.Some offer outright dire predictions. There is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based forecasting firm, which foresees a ...

Eurozone FIG Rises

ECRI — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 04:30:00 -0400

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in February, pushed up by increases in Germany, Italy and Spain, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge rose a touch to 97.3 in February from January's 21-month low of 96.7, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.'Despite its latest uptick, the EZFIG is still in a clear cyc...

Can Chinese Industrial Growth Bounce Back?

ECRI — Sun, 01 Apr 2012 07:41:39 -0400

ECRI has just updated its Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in Chinese industrial growth. Given the current recessionary situation in much of Europe, many are looking to China as a potential investment haven. However, with recent data confirming continued weakness in Chinese industrial growth, t...

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 11:00:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, and the growth rate on an annualized basis was non-negative for the first time since August, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.9 from a revised 125.4 in the week ended March 23.The index's annualized grow...

Bahama Meetings

ECRI — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 09:23:00 -0400

ECRI will visit the Bahamas to meet with professional clients on March 27 - 30, 2012.

Germany and the Eurozone Recession

ECRI — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 09:03:36 -0400

Most observers believe that with the Eurozone financial crisis contained for now, dangers to the German economy have receded. In fact, with popular business and consumer surveys rising in recent months, it is widely expected that the German economy will accelerate in coming months, and recession is only a remote possibility.This confidence in the German economy is partly due to its strong reco...

Undertow in Credit Conditions?

ECRI — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 16:55:03 -0400

Recent marginal interest rate increases have scarcely surprised the consensus – who take this tightening as a sign the U.S. economy is in a firming economic recovery. As such, many expect credit growth to improve further over the next year.But is such extrapolation warranted? After all, borrowers are sensitive to even modest changes in credit conditions. ECRI’s U.S. Leading Credit Index , whic...

WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to hold a seven-month high, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.7 in the week ended March 16 from a downwardly revised 125.0 the previous week. That was origina...

Will U.S. Job Growth Begin to Flag?

ECRI — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 08:57:21 -0400

With U.S. payroll job growth averaging nearly a quarter of a million a month over the last three months, general optimism about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery has improved considerably. However, coming out of the Great Recession, shell-shocked employers continued to slash jobs for many more months than usual. Thus, part of the current growth in jobs can be attributed to emplo...

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 11:58:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan shares his presentation slides and notes from the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference today in Frankfurt, Germany.The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economi...

Frankfurt Conference

ECRI — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 10:00:00 -0400

On March 22 at 9:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join a panel discussion about the "Risks Beyond the Eurozone and the Threat of Contagion" during the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference.

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 07:00:00 -0400

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved last week to its highest level in seven months, while the annualized growth rate also rose, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.1 in the week ended March 9 from an upwardly revised 124.6 the previous week. That was origi...

Radio Interview

ECRI — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 07:30:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt at 7:30 AM on Friday, March 16.

Why Our Recession Call Stands

ECRI — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 08:57:00 -0400

Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice. Let’s start with the current state of the economy. A couple of weeks ago, we publicly highlighted ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index . It’s important to understand th...

WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to hold a more than six-month high, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to its highest level since mid-August at 124.3 in the week ended March 2 from a downwardly revise...

Flat FIG

ECRI — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 10:00:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained at 101.4 from a revised 101.4 in January, originally reported as 101.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“With the USFIG staying well below its early 2011 highs, U.S. inflation pressures remain fairly subdued,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshm...

Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

ECRI — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 07:42:00 -0500

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone eased to a 21-month low in January, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge slipped a touch to 96.5 in January from 96.6 in December, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday."Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading," Lakshma...

New Growth Rate Cycle Dates

ECRI — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 15:53:00 -0500

We have recently determined growth rate cycle peak dates for France, Italy and Switzerland.You can download the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies from ECRI's cycle chronologies page.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up to its highest level in six months last week, while the annualized growth rate also saw improvement, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.2 in the week ended Feb 24 from a downwardly revised 123.1 the previous week. Tha...

Cyclical Linkages in International Supply Chains

ECRI — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:36:21 -0500

In the wake of the global financial crisis, concerns have grown about the passage of power from the Western economies to those in the East and the Global South, who currently account for the lion’s share of worldwide economic growth. However, much of the developing economies’ rapid ascent has been driven by exports, resulting in their significantly deeper integration into the global supply chai...

Q4 GDP Revision & Recession

ECRI — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 09:00:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with CNNi following today's revision to 2011 Q4 GDP.

Interview on Recession

ECRI — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 09:00:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with CNN International about our U.S. recession call.

Upcoming Interview

ECRI — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 12:00:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene at 12 noon about ECRI's updated outlook.

U.S. Growth Slowing, Not Reviving

ECRI — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 09:59:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to point out that U.S. economic growth has actually slowed in recent months, contrary to the consensus view.

WLI Drops

ECRI — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 09:00:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped last week, though the annualized growth rate continued to improve to its highest level in six months, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 123.2 in the week ended Feb 17 from a downwardly revised 123.4 the previous week. T...

Upcoming Interview

ECRI — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 08:00:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene at 8:00 AM about ECRI's updated outlook.

U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low

ECRI — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 06:20:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Squawk Box this morning to discuss what has transpired since our recession call five months ago.

Velocity of Money Dropping

ECRI — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:30:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses our recession call, including the Weekly Leading Index and velocity of money.

Can the U.S. Consumer Keep Spending?

ECRI — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 09:25:32 -0500

Upbeat jobs data has helped dissipate recession fears. However, the notion that this improvement can keep recession at bay seems to conflict with the more desperate reality facing many, who, over the past several months, have seen persistently negative income growth. ECRI’s latest analysis examines the jobs data and relates it to the cyclical drivers of consumer spending growth, thereby gaining...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly to its highest level in nearly six months, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 123.5 in the week ended Feb 10 from an upwardly revised ...

Nassau Meetings

ECRI — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 09:30:00 -0500

ECRI will visit Nassau, Bahamas to meet with professional clients.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week, and the growth rate rose on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.3 in the week ended Feb. 3 from 123.0 in the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate climbed to minus 4....

Will the U.S. Decouple?

ECRI — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:39:03 -0500

While the Eurozone debt crisis still lingers on, there is increasing confidence that the U.S. economy is reaccelerating, given the recent better-than-expected economic data. This has again made popular the view that the U.S. has decoupled from the Eurozone and other major economies.In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth analysis about international synchronization of cyclical downturns...

test (chart)

ECRI — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:22:00 -0500

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WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 123.1 in the week ended Jan 27 from a revised 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.8....

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

ECRI — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:23:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 101.2 from a revised 98.9 in December, originally reported as 98.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “With the USFIG staying well below the highs seen in early 2011, U.S. inflation pressures are relatively restrained,” ECRI Chief Operatio...

Euro Inflation Pressures Ease

ECRI — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 04:30:00 -0500

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone slipped further in December, according to an indicator from the Economic Cycle Research Institute , designed to predict inflation trends, on Friday.The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge dipped to 97.0 in December from 97.7 in November as inflationary pressures in Germany, France and Italy receded."In line with the cyclical downtrend in the EZFIG, euro zone ...

Stagnant Money

ECRI — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 15:04:13 -0500

For many years now we have seen stimulatory monetary policy implemented by central banks around the world. Taking a step back from the modest economic recoveries and upswing in the markets, it is also important to assess what has happened to the velocity of money – which refers to the speed with which money changes hand in a given economy. If velocity is high, monetary stimulus can be much mor...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

ECRI — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 10:16:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from an upwardly revised 104.4 in December, originally reported as 104.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."While pointing to somewhat higher U.S. inflation pressures, the USFIG has not yet seen a pronounced, pervasive and persistent advance t...

WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth declined modestly in the latest week, though the annualized growth rate improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.8 in the week ended Jan 20 from a revised 123.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 123.4. The ...

Cyclical Risk Patterns & Equity Prices

ECRI — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 09:46:58 -0500

Nearly a year after the end of the Great Recession, we concluded that we were "approaching the most dangerous period of the business cycle to employ a buy-on-dips strategy." That turned out to be a prescient forecast that was followed by widespread stock market worries about a "double-dip recession."This conclusion drew on an analysis covering six decades that pinpointed the stages of the busin...

Is the U.S. Economy Gathering Steam?

ECRI — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:02:45 -0500

With recent U.S. economic data showing better-than-consensus readings, there is growing agreement that the U.S. economy has avoided a recession. Do the data really reflect a genuine firming in economic activity, or is this merely a false dawn before a recession hits?ECRI’s latest report on the U.S. outlook provides clear insights into this issue, with important implications for the markets and ...

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week to its highest level in five months, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index for the week ended Jan 13 climbed to 123.4, the highest level since August, from a revised 121.1 ...

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, though the annualized growth rate eased, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.2 in the week ended Jan 6 from 120.2 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate slipped to minus 8.4 percent from ...

ECRI WLI Rises

ECRI — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:32:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened in the latest week to its highest in a year and a half, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week ended Jan. 4, its best showing since August 2011, from a revised 12...

U.S. FIG Rises

ECRI — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 09:30:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge crept to 98.6 from a revised 98.4 in November, originally reported as 98.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.“With the USFIG ending 2011 near the lows of the year, underlying U.S. inflation pressures remain subdued,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lak...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 09:30:00 -0500

A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 30 fell to 120.2 from 120.7 in the previous week. The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell 8.2 percent.

G7 Expansions at Risk

ECRI — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 15:34:07 -0500

With the Great Recession still a fresh memory, the global economy is facing another downturn, with some countries already in recession. The perceived shortness of the recoveries took most by surprise, demolishing expectations that a severe recession would be followed by a strong and prolonged recovery.It should not have. Our recent analysis extends our original work on the U.S. economy from 200...

Recession Recognition

ECRI — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 12:09:22 -0500

With the consensus typically recognizing recession only long after it has begun and usually because of a negative GDP print--the fact that these releases are revised many months, years and even decades after their first release may be one reason why it is so difficult for many to pin-down recession timing.In ECRI’s latest study, we summarize the nature of these revisions and examine how long it...

Weekly Leading Index Falls

ECRI — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A gauge of future economic activity in the U.S. fell last week, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.The ECRI’s leading index for the week ending Dec. 23 fell to 120.9 from 121.3 in the previous week.The growth rate, which is designed to minimize monthly fluctuations, fell to 7.6 percent.

WLI Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also sagged, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 121.3 in the week ended Dec 16 from 122.3 the previous week.The index's annualized growth rate dipped to minus 7.7 per...

Forecasting Fog

ECRI — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 08:00:00 -0500

The American economy certainly isn’t at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can’t be. But unless the economy receives another shocking blow, it isn’t in imminent danger of relapsing into recession.That was essentially the outlook presented by Federal Reserve policy makers last week when they ratcheted up their assessment of the nation’s economic condition. They ...

WLI Little Changed

ECRI — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.3 in the week ended Dec 9 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5. The in...

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.5 in the week ended December 2 from a revised 120.8 the previous week. It was originally reported at 120.9. The index's ann...

Recession Call Update

ECRI — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:01:00 -0500

In the noon hour ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV about ECRI's recession call.

Recession Update

ECRI — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recessionary outlook, Gross Domestic Income, and how economic growth doesn't really "muddle along" at sustained low rates.

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 120.9 in the week ended Nov 25 from a revised 122.2 the previous week, originally reported at 122.3. The index's annualized growth rate worsened to minus 7.8 percent f...

Confusion Masks Brazilian Reality

ECRI — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 10:25:47 -0500

Despite signs of weakening, Brazilian officials are hoping for relatively strong economic growth over the next year, recently adopting accommodative policies to ensure their 5% growth target is met. Meanwhile, central bank forecasters have slashed GDP growth predictions 11 times since August, settling at 3.1%. At the same time, the head of the IMF has lauded Brazil for their adeptness in weathe...

U.S. FIG Unchanged

ECRI — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 10:03:00 -0500

U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 98.3 from a revised 98.3 in October, originally reported as 99.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “Since its March peak, the USFIG has remained in a cyclical downswing, and is now hovering around its lows for the year. Thus, inflation pressures r...

Eurozone FIG Down

ECRI — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 04:30:00 -0500

Inflation pressures in the euro zone eased to a 13-month low in October, according to a forward looking indicator from the Economic Cycle Research Institute that is designed to predict trends in inflation.October's Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge was down at 97.7 from 98.5 in September, suggesting that euro zone inflation remains in a cyclical downward trend.'With the EZFIG declining from its s...

Cyclical Shift for Chinese Economy

ECRI — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 14:03:27 -0500

Over the past year, China has made countless policy moves to curb runaway inflation, but the current manufacturing slowdown may be more than they may have bargained for.The People’s Bank of China recently lowered its reserve requirement ratio for the first time in two years. Does this mean that China’s policy makers will now focus more on economic growth and not inflation? ECRI's latest in-dept...

WLI Ticks Up

ECRI — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 10:47:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate continued to improve from low levels, a research group said on Wednesday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.3 in the week ended Nov 18 from 122.0 the previous week. That was originally reported as 12...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate continued to improve, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 122.1 in the week ended Nov 11 from 122.3 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate gai...

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:30:00 -0500

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to an eight-week high in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 122.3 in the week ended Nov 4 from 122.1 the week before. The index's annualized growth rate gaine...

Squawk Box Interview

ECRI — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 06:30:00 -0500

Lakshman Achuthan will join Squawk Box at 6:40 AM to discuss the recession call that ECRI announced in September.

Recession Call Intact

ECRI — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 06:40:00 -0500

Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI's recession call announced on Sep. 30, and explained that over the past century most recessions began during quarters with positive GDP growth.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved from low levels, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 122.1 in the week ended Oct 28 from a revised 121.2 the previous week. That was originally reported as 121....

U.S. FIG Drops

ECRI — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 09:15:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 99.2 from a revised 99.7 in September, originally reported as 99.9, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “After a brief interruption, the USFIG has begun to ease once again. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures are still in a cyclical downswing,” ECRI Chief Op...

Is Australia Out of Luck?

ECRI — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 08:27:48 -0400

Australia – which some call “the lucky country” – stands apart from other advanced economies, having sidestepped not only the recent global financial crisis but also the 2001 global recession and the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. However, as the Australian economy is increasingly driven by resource exports, it is becoming more vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in global growth. EC...

ECRI in Toronto

ECRI — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 07:30:00 -0400

ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on October 31, 2011.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose for the first time in three months, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index gained to 121.3 in the week ended Oct 21 from 120.4 the previous week. The index's annualized growth r...

Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

ECRI — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 08:55:00 -0400

Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data.

Will the consumer save the day?

ECRI — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 17:19:35 -0400

Recently, a number of economic data releases watched by economists have come in "above expectations," thereby easing recession fears and buoying the markets.In particular, September’s retail sales data came in well above expectations, leading many analysts to downplay recession risk. ECRI’s latest analysis shows that from a cyclical perspective the reality is very different, with critical impli...

Squaring Higher Stocks with Recession

ECRI — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 16:00:00 -0400

Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data.

WLI Rises

ECRI — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 120.4 in the week ended Oct 14 from 120.0 the week before. That was origina...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in more than a year, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 120.2 in the week ended Oct 7 from a revised 120.5 the previous week. That was origina...

In-depth Interview

ECRI — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 21:00:00 -0400

At 9:00 PM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Matt Miller on Bloomberg TV's Rewind to discuss how ECRI doesn't use models for forecasting, and why we are in an era of more frequent recessions.

Recession Nips at Heels of Economy

ECRI — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 06:00:00 -0400

"...'We've had a new slowdown that began roughly in the second quarter of 2011,' says Lakshman Achuthan, who heads the Economic Cycle Research Institute. 'This time that downturn in growth has continued all the way to the onset of a new recession.'""...'Then the economy began to slow again and this is something we saw coming,' Achuthan says. 'It was happening in the context of a global industri...

Recession Implications

ECRI — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 18:30:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will talk with ABC Evening News about the economic implications of a new recession.

An Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before

ECRI — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 07:00:00 -0400

LET’S face it: economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it. The stock market offers its predictions, and, occasionally, it’s even right. As the economist Paul Samuelson once put it: “The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.”Economists have an even worse record, particularly when it comes to predicting downturns. In 1929, fo...

Recession & Jobs

ECRI — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 13:00:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan joined CNN's Your $$$$$ on Saturday to discuss ECRI's recession call and what it means for the job market in coming months. Re-airing Sunday at 3 PM .

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth weakened in the latest week, and the index's annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 121.2 in the week ended Sept. 30 from a revised 121.8 the previous week. The previous week's number was originally...

US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

ECRI — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 09:40:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 99.9 from a revised 99.2 in August , originally reported as 99.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. “Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG is still close to July's ten-month low. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend,” ECRI Chi...

Global Slowdown

ECRI — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 07:45:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with Al Jazeera.

Interview on Jobs

ECRI — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 07:01:00 -0400

At 7 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with WNYC's John Hockenberry about the outlook for jobs in coming months.

Recession: Mild or Severe?

ECRI — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 17:05:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan discusses how mild or severe the recession may become.

Recession Weakness Beyond Sentiment

ECRI — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 11:00:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI outlook with Reuters.

Recession & Yield Spread

ECRI — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 10:05:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI's recession call with BNN.

Made in the U.S.A.

ECRI — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 10:00:00 -0400

"Sell in May and go away" is the hoary cliché that proved prescient this year for stock traders. The Standard & Poor's 500 peaked around May Day, along with President Obama's popularity with the termination of Osama bin Laden, and it's been downhill for both since.The S&P 500 closed within a percentage point of the conventional definition of a bear market Monday, down 19.4% from the April 29 hi...

Explaining the Recession Call

ECRI — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 06:30:00 -0400

The U.S. recovery wasn’t much to begin with, and now it’s dead. That is the news from the widely respected Economic Cycle Research Institute that said the U.S. has already or is about to tip into recession. The announcement, made public Friday, was met with skepticism by other economists who are more hopeful the U.S. and the world will skirt recession.Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI, howe...

Double-Dip or New Recession?

ECRI — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 18:30:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Anthony Mason about ECRI's new U.S. recession call.

Interview on Outlook

ECRI — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan will talk with Bloomberg Radio's Kathleen Hayes about the cyclical outlook.

Recession Debate

ECRI — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 19:00:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan will debate ECRI's recent recession call with Larry Kudlow.

New Recession Call

ECRI — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 07:30:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan discussed ECRI's recent recession call with Ali Velshi on American Morning.

US recession, vicious cycle

ECRI — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 06:00:00 -0400

Is the sky really falling? In a business far more forgiving of misguided optimism than the opposite, pundits must be wary of predicting recessions. They are, after all, fairly rare, with just 11 in the US since the second world war. Still, enough economists are willing to stick their necks out at times like this for one economist’s quip about having predicted nine out of the past five recession...

Recession Can't be Averted

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 16:15:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan talks with The Wall Street Journal about ECRI's new recession call.

It's Going to Get Worse

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 15:50:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance about ECRI new recession call.

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 10:30:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate also slowed, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.9 in the week ended Sept. 23 from 122.2 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate decelerated to minus 7.2 per...

U.S. Economy Tipping into Recession

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 07:27:38 -0400

Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthqua...

Growth, Jobs Outlook

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 06:15:00 -0400

On Sep. 30 morning ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNBC's Squawk Box to discuss the cyclical outlook.

Squawk Box Interview

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 06:10:00 -0400

Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC's Squawk Box at 6:10 AM to discuss the recession call that ECRI announced today.

A New Recession

ECRI — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 00:15:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the new recession.

Focus: The Jobs Recovery — Retrospect and Prospect

ECRI — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 20:49:43 -0400

In the previous business cycle, manufacturing saw massive structural job losses, while construction saw cyclical job gains — a pattern reversed in the latest business cycle.

International Outlook Updated

ECRI — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 05:54:00 -0400

On Wednesday afternoon ECRI will release the September International Cyclical Outlook to members, with a focus on Eurozone prospects.

ECRI in London

ECRI — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 08:00:00 -0400

ECRI principals will be in London to meet with professional members on September 26 and 27, 2011.

Recall Last May

ECRI — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 07:00:00 -0400

"As if to underline the Fed's downbeat assessment , the Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. weekly leading indicator has deteriorated to negative 6.7% growth rate, the worst since this indicator began to roll over in early May."Read the full article in Barron's.

WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:30:00 -0400

The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators is still, you guessed it, pointing in the wrong direction. The ECRI’s index ticked lower yet again last week, the institute said today, and the four-week rolling average fell to -6.7%, the worst rate of decline in nearly a year.The index is still not signaling a recession — it has fallen much further than this i...

Cycles & Current Events

ECRI — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 06:15:00 -0400

ECRI's Achuthan discusses current events from ECRI's cyclical vantage point.

Skating on Thin Ice

ECRI — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 17:00:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with NPR's All Things Considered about the risk of recession and the jobs challenge that predated the recession.

New Recession Risk

ECRI — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 20:00:00 -0400

Last year economist Lakshman Achuthan said he thought the United States had emerged from the depths of a recession, but today the picture looks a bit more grim. Unemployment is hovering above nine percent and there were no new jobs created in August. On top of that, consumer confidence is at its second-lowest level of the year.In response to the grim news, Achuthan told Guy Raz, host of weekend...

WLI Falls

ECRI — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 10:30:00 -0400

The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators continues to trot in the wrong direction, down. The ECRI’s index ticked lower last week, the institute said today, and the four-week rolling average fell to -7.1%, the worst rate of decline in nearly a year. The chart keeps looking uglier and uglier, though you could eyeball it and say maybe it has stopped falli...

Serious recession threat for U.S.

ECRI — Sun, 11 Sep 2011 00:01:00 -0400

New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute tracks some 20 large economies contributing about 80% of the world GDP and provides critical information about upturns and downturns of economic cycles to money managers, corporate bodies and policy makers.It follows the economies like the US, Canada, Brazil, the UK, Germany, France, Japan, China and India. Set up by the legendary Geoffrey H Moor...

Interview on Economy

ECRI — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 14:00:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be interviewed on All Things Considered this weekend at 5:00 PM . Update: this interview did not yet air. If and when it does, we will post it here.Lakshman's comments included an overview of how many of the challenges the economy faces today were in place prior to the 2007-09 Great Recession. You may be interested in listening to Lakshman’s July 2010 explanation o...

WLI Ticks Up, but Growth Weakens

ECRI — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth ticked higher in the latest week, but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest level in nearly a year, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 123.0 in the week ended Sept 2 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported ...

Interview on Recession Risk

ECRI — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 08:45:00 -0400

At 8:45 AM Thursday morning, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Canada's BNN to discuss the cyclical outlook for growth and jobs. UPDATE: cancelled because of technical difficulties in Toronto.

Update on Jobs Outlook

ECRI — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 11:10:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Fox Business this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook, including jobs.

Outlook for Growth

ECRI — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 13:00:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join CNN's Your $$$$$ at 1:00 PM on Saturday, and then again at 3:00 PM on Sunday.

Long-Term Problem for Long-Term Unemployed

ECRI — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 13:42:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be on NBC Nightly News discussing how the problems with employment predated the Great Recession.

Interview on Jobs

ECRI — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:40:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan returns to Bloomberg TV following to follow up on an early May appearance when ECRI publicly announced the imminent slowdown.

Eurozone FIG Edges Up

ECRI — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Inflationary pressures in the euro zone edged up in July from June's seven-month low, driven by increases in Germany and Italy, an indicator designed by the Economic Cycle Research Institute to predict inflation trends showed.New York-based ECRI said its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge rose to 101.1 in July from 100.5 in June."In line with the downturn in the EZFIG, euro zone inflation has decr...

WLI Slips

ECRI — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate tumbled to its lowest level since November, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index eased to 122.5 in the week ended Aug 26 from 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as...

Recession Risk Rising

ECRI — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

"As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come.That's because high unemployment could be a warning sign -- and the cause -- of the country falling into a double dip recession.Most economists weren't ready to call a new recession yet. But many were raising the odds of one.They're worried because weakness in the lab...

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Down

ECRI — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge rose to 99.5 from 98.5 in Juy, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.According to ECRI, the USFIG remains near July’s nine-month low. Thus U.S. inflation pressures are still in a cyclical downsizing.

Trend of Slowing Jobs Growth

ECRI — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 18:30:00 -0400

Segment including ECRI runs from the 9:00 to 11:40 minute mark.

Looming Risks in Korea

ECRI — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 08:30:00 -0400

With high Korean inflation, and concern about growth going forward, there are mounting fears that the Korean economy is in for tough times.ECRI has just completed an in-depth cyclical risk analysis based on its forward-looking Korean indicators for domestic growth, exports and inflation. This study provides clear insights into the nuances of the cyclical direction of growth and inflation in com...

Job Market to Remain Weak

ECRI — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 06:10:00 -0400

Near the end of the interview Lakshman misquoted the number of robots currently used by Foxconn, China’s largest private employer . They do plan to increase the number of robots they use from 10,000 today to one million by 2014.

Jobs Outlook Tough for Policy

ECRI — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

President Obama will need a home run when he rolls out his new, long-awaited jobs plan next week. His approval rating has plunged – it’s currently at 40%, according to Gallup – and some economists say it’s too late for the White House to make a dent in the 9.2% national unemployment rate before November 2012, especially if the economy slips back into recession.Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of t...

No Near-Term Jobs Fix

ECRI — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:15:00 -0400

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses job market challenges in the context of the current slowdown occurring within an era of more frequent recessions.

Jury Still Out on Recession Call

ECRI — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 09:30:00 -0400

There is more weakness ahead, but the jury is still out as to whether the cyclical slowdown will turn into a new recession.