Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 542 (450, 516, 523)
# Sales: 258 (228, 276, 310)
Ratio: 48% (51%, 53%, 59%)
# Price changes: 405 (461, 469, 519)
# Expired Listings: 692 (162, 269, 219)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 44 (47, 54, 77)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -452 (13, -83, -83)
Active listings for single family homes: 3730 (3972, 3986, 4003)
Active listings for condos: 2466 (2661, 2643, 2671)

With the past 7 days encompassing the end of August and the beginning of September, there have been a significant of number of listings expire. This contributed to the largest decrease in Net Listings (ie. Inventory) since the end of June. It is interesting to note that sales reversed the trend from last week and had a modest increase of 30.

If this weeks post seems to be lacking the usual colour and sparkle it's because my photoshop skills are still a far cry from Sara's. So unfortunately we will be left to use our visualization skills (me included!) and digest the stats without the help of the graphs for the next couple of weeks. 

We'd also like to thank everyone who applied for the administrative position with our little company - we have filled the position and look forward to Courtney joining our team in a couple of weeks.

Stop the presses!!! The stats we reported the other day are completely different than what has been released by the Realtor's Association of Edmonton in their monthly release. I'm not sure why, and I'll try and find out but I thought I'd get the correct info up as quickly as I could.

Saturday September 6 update: I goofed!!! Big time. "BAD" was correct and I reported the total sales the other day, as opposed to the residential sales, which is what I normally report. I am extremely sorry about the confusion - Sheldon and I are trying to tie up all the loose ends before we leave tomorrow for two weeks and in the midst of all the rushing around I made a  mistake. Here are the correct charts (which are what I originally posted on Monday):

Again, I do apologize, this was just a mistake, not a conspiracy or anything else. I have gone back and double checked all the numbers for the past couple of years and they are correct.

Inventory dropped again this month - significantly this time - and we're finally below 10,000 listings for the first time since March.

Looking at this from a supply/demand perspective, you can see inventory has a long way to drop before we are likely to see significant price increases:

One last look at inventory:

I think next month I will save my full analysis until the board releases their monthly stats. The average price matched in both reports but sales and inventory were totally different. Thoughts? 

***Post edited. Please see updated numbers. I have removed anything that is incorrect as of Sept 4/08.***

Prices have also come down - the average residential sale price was $329,206, down almost 1.8% from $335 in July (and $341 in June).

New listings are definitely tailing off:

New listings: 450 (516, 523, 538)
# Sales: 228 (276, 310, 262)
Ratio: 51% (53%, 59%, 49%)
# Price changes: 461 (469, 519, 448)
# Expired Listings: 162 (269, 219, 552)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 47 (54, 77, 33)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 13 (-83. -83, -309)
Active listings for single family homes: 3972 (3986, 4003, 3999)
Active listings for condos: 2661 (2643, 2671, 2705)

The September slow down has begun - every year September see lower sales and generally a drop in prices. This is because people are more occupied with kids going back to school, and schedules changing and therefore aren't as interested in looking for homes. This is the first week in two months where the inventory increased, and sales are definitely lower than what we've become used to for the past two months.

Monthly update in a couple of days....expect lower average prices and better sales than last year.

Happy Weekend!

Anyway, here is the topic of the day - what do you do when you are unhappy with the person you've contracted to sell your home?

1. Don't call us. You are in a contractual relationship with another brokerage. Anything we say could interfere with that contract so we can't say anything at all or we'll be in trouble too!
2. Call the person you hired. Let them know you're unhappy and give them a chance to rectify the situation. If that doesn't work...
3. Call their broker. Your listing contract is with the brokerage, and the broker is responsible for their associates and may be able to rectify the situation. If that doesn't work...
4. Call your lawyer. I think that one is self-explanatory...
5. If you have a legitimate complaint, you can contact the REALTOR's Association of Edmonton - 780-451-6666 or the Real Estate Council of Alberta 888-425-2754.

If you don't want to call anybody, you can find plenty of information online - the Real Estate Council of Alberta web site has tons of information, in particular in the Consumer Information section of the site.

Feel free to contact us anytime with questions about real estate, or for information on buying or selling real estate in the Edmonton area - you can even chat with us if we're online using the cool chat box on this page. We don't bite (usually).

Ultimately anything can happen in real estate.  Even the best instincts and prepartion can leave you unprepared for the unexpected.

As a buyer in Edmonton today you are pretty much in the driver's seat unless the seller has marketed their property and priced it extremely well.  For the most part that can be a pretty confident place to negotiate from if you are a buyer.

Low and behold things are not always as they seem.   A few times this past year we’ve had buyers tried to renogotiate with our sellers over some pretty petty stuff and for the deal to go together someone has to suck it up.  In recent history the buyers had to suck it up or the sellers sold to someone else.  Now more often than not it’s the sellers taking care of those petty little items. 

One exception can be where the sellers actually hope the deal comes unglued.  In two such cases we had second buyer ready, willing and excited to buy our property.  In one such case an overconfident buyer/buyer’s agent assumed we’d be their whipping post.  We kept reaffirming to them that the deal was fair but to no avail.  On our side we were hoping they would get lost so we could sell to the second buyer. Well they huffed and they puffed.  “You’re going to lose this deal”, yada yada, I think you get the gist. 

The point is, if someone isn't willing to budge, there may be a good reason for it - don't just assume they are stubborn.

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week's numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 516 (523, 538, 528)
# Sales: 276 (310, 262, 296)
Ratio: 53% (59%, 49%, 56%)
# Price changes: 469 (519, 448, 466)
# Expired Listings: 269 (219, 552, 608)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 54 (77, 33, 47)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -83 (-83, -309, -418)
Active listings for single family homes: 3986 (4003, 3999, 4007)
Active listings for condos: 2643 (2671, 2705, 2708)

The slow decrease in inventory continues...could sales be any steadier?

The other stats...so far 1162 sales this month - still should put us around 1700 sales by the end of the month which will put us well ahead of last year but about average for recent years. The average sale price is $327,886 which is down a bit further from last week ($335 end of July, $329 last week) while price per square foot is basically unchanged.

This week I also had a look at the different areas of the city and how quickly things are selling. If you remember from last month, I did an "absorption rate" study for different areas and different types of listings. The absorption rate is the number of listings currently on the market, divided by the number of sales in the pat 30 days, and it tells you how many months it will take to sell the current inventory if the rate of sales stays the same.

So, Sherwood Park still has the quickest absorption rate, in fact, it's even gotten quicker than last month and Stony Plain is the slowest, but the pace has picked up, and it's picked up more than any other area.  The $700,000+ market has slowed down more than any other category, and takes the cake with 20 months worth of supply.

If you're interested please send your resume to listings@teamjohnston.com.

Phew...that was a mouthful! Now here is why I think almost nobody wins in this situation...

Buyers:
In order to get this condition accepted, every other part of your offer needs to be very strong. When we're representing a seller and we receive a subject to sale offer, we will generally advise our clients to counter strong. The sellers really have nothing to lose, since the likelihood of the deal actually going together is slim to none. So as a buyer, you end up in a weak negotiating position, and will likely have to pay top dollar, with a large deposit and tight time frames on your other conditions - in fact, you could very easily end up paying for an inspection, only to lose the home to another party.

But you want that home, and you feel that putting in an offer subject to the sale of your own home will give you some time... time to sell your home, and a feeling that you've got your new home secured. Maybe it will buy you some time, but what happens when the seller accepts another offer, and you have 48 hours to remove all your conditions or kiss the home good bye? What are you going to do? You have a short period of time to make a decision, and if you decide to go ahead you have a very short period of time to get all your conditions removed (can you get financing for two homes in 48 hours?).

Of course, if you've found the one and only home that will work for you, and you absolutely must have it, and money is no object, then go ahead and put in an offer that is subject to the sale of your current home. But if it really is that wonderful, and you know you'd remove your condition if the seller's get another offer, then why not just go in with a strong offer in the first place, so you can get all the other things you want such as a possession date that works for you and a good price?

Of course, if the home is not truly one of a kind, you could get your existing home sold first and then make a strong offer without risking owning two homes. Keep in mind of course all this advice is relevant for the current market in Edmonton, and will change with the market.

Sellers:
The one benefit this type of offer gives you is the ability to negotiate hard with the buyers. Really, you don't have much to lose since the offer is almost worthless anyway (in my opinion). The problems tend arise with the home that the buyers now have to sell... The form that Realtors in Alberta use for this condition clearly states the address of the buyer's home, when it will be listed and for how much... Your Realtor then has an opportunity to help you determine the likelihood of the buyer's home selling. If it all looks good and you come to an agreement with the buyer, there are often more suprises on the way. The buyer may list their home for more money than they indicated they would, or they may come back and re-negotiate with you, trying to extend conditions or get a lower price.

All in all we much prefer to get the buyer's home sold before putting an offer on another home in the current market.

New listings: 523 (538, 528, 476)
# Sales: 310 (262, 296, 286)
Ratio: 59% (49%, 56%, 60%)
# Price changes: 519 (448, 466, 480)
# Expired Listings: 219 (552, 608, 162)
# Canceled/withdrawn/terminated listings: 77( 33, 47, 63)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -83 (-309, -418, -35)
Active listings for single family homes: 4003 (3999, 4007, 4206)
Active listings for condos: 2671 (2705, 2708, 2914)

So, another big week for sales, and another small drop in inventory. The average price for the month so far is $329,065 which is down from $335 in July. It seems most of this drop is on the single family home side of things which has dropped from about $379 to $370. So far there have been 775 sales this month, which projects out to about 1700 sales for August which would put us well ahead of last year.

It was a very busy week for us, but we managed to have a little fun too. Yesterday was our company golf game and we put together a little video to share the fun:

I’ve got an opinion on everything, and for certain the only ones that are right are the ones that don’t contradict the love of my life’s opinions.  I’m sure that’s like most relationships.

There is a new video available that explains agency relationship in Alberta. I want unbiased opinions on this video so I won’t taint everybody with my perspective.  Let it fly good or bad, I promise I’ll bite my lip and take whatever comes.

On October 1st, 2008 Agency as we know in Alberta will change and Transcational Brokerage (TB)  will come into effect.  For those who don’t care Designated Agency came into effect and became an option for brokerages in Alberta on March 1st of this year.  To my knowledge no brokerages in Alberta have signed up for designated agency at this point.  Maybe it’s an agency of the future or its already in the past.  Others will have to decide this.

This video was created by the RECA (the Real Estate Council of Alberta) to inform the industry and the public about TB.  So please have a look and let me know what you think honestly.

Would this help you as a consumer?  Is it too long or too short?  Whatever the feedback let er rip.

Gary Lamphier writes: Our housing market's correction is not a calamity

Bill Mah writes: Edmonton house-price hike Canada's 5th lowest

And the ever optimistic Neil Waugh of the Edmonton Journal writes: Housing Starts Spell Gloom

All of this comes from press releases by CMHC and StatsCan.

CMHC's press release showed that housing starts are down, waaaaaay down (yippeee!). Multi-family starts are down 63% and single family starts down 71% from a year ago.

The Statscan release showed that new homes increased in price in Edmonton by 1.6% - I'm surprised they increased at all and wonder if the average was skewed by more high end sales and fewer condo sales. Just a guess there though.

Enjoy the articles....by your comments we'll know which newspaper/author is your favourite.

A lot of times when we post the stats there is some confusion about the numbers. I have to admit I don't  always know the answers, but I did get some from the Realtor's Association of Edmonton this week. Hopefully this clears things up for everyone.

QUESTION:
I am bit confused by the numbers EREB.com is expressing. EREB.com as per July stats says "the unusually high inventory level dropped to 10,501 properties as of July 31, 2008." But when I review the PDF for july 08 in more detail for total listing VS total sales on bottom of page 2 what I see is  total no of properties listed to date is 26508 less the total no of properties sold to 11071 which brings the difference to 15437 which should be current inventory for 2008. What I am trying to understand is have 5000 mls listings been withdrawn or just expired and fell off the mls system ?? Anybody have a clarification for me??

ANSWER:
Inventory is the actual count of residential units active (available for purchase) on the MLS at a given point in time. Listings are the number of properties offered. If a listing expires and the property is then relisted (after any period off the market) it counts as another listing but would not increase the inventory. Listings increase through the year. Inventory can vary up or down. Both stats are useful for guaging market activity but in different ways. BTW the total sales figures on page 2 are not the same as total sales numbers on page 1 of the report. That is because page 2 does not include mobile home and other trivial sales categories.

QUESTION:
How does EREB tally up their grand monthly total of SFD sold? Their official figure of 1176 from here http://www.ereb.com/pdf/MonthlyStats.pdf is not the same as the total you get from page 5 of the same document which is 939. (The latter figure is closer to the one on Bob Truman's website, which is why I did the calculation.)

ANSWER:
The official figure of 1176 residential sales in July includes all sales through the Edmonton MLS which would include sales in rural areas and communities not listed on page 5. The total sales reported on page five are just for the city of Edmonton and the seven communities profiled. Sales in Barrhead, Westlock, Drayton Vallety, Westaskiwin and other communities are not included. The total number of sales reflected on page 5 is meaningless which is why there is no sales total on the Overall number at the bottom. BTW that overall average and median reflects all SFD sales through the MLS and not just those listed on that page.