Canada was the fastest growing country in the G8, Alberta was the fastest growing province in Canada, and Edmonton and Calgary were the fastest growing major cities when their growth was measured in the 2011 census, growing at an even faster rate than in the previous five year period.

The Capital Region — including municipalities such as Beaumont, Spruce Grove and Fort Saskatchewan — grew from just over a million people in 2006 to more than 1.16 million people in 2011. That’s a 12% increase in the five-year span measured by the national population count. Most of this growth is occurring in new suburbs and bedrooms communities.

For the first time in Canada's history, the provinces west of Ontario have a higher population than the provinces east of Ontario.

Highlights from the report so far include:

• Canada’s population grew by 5.9% 2006 and 2011, slightly faster than the 5.4% increase in the five-year period before that. Statistics Canada attributed the increase in growth rate to slightly higher fertility and to an increase in the number of non-permanent residents and immigrants.
• Ontario remains by far Canada’s most populous province with 38.4% of all Canadians.
• The number of private dwellings grew by 7.1%, to 13.3 million, compared to 12.4 million five years earlier.
• The 33.5 million people counted in May, 2011 is almost twice as many as in 1961 and 10 times the 1861 census.
• Canada is the smallest G8 nation but the fastest growing. The United States is the biggest, with 311.2 million citizens, followed by Russia with 142.9 million residents.
• Canada’s population growth for the last decade has been driven mainly by migration since natural increase — the difference between births and deaths — now only account for one-third of the growth.

Additional demographic information from the census will be released by statistics Canada throughout the year.

Meanwhile, Edmonton area home builders had a busy month in January, according to a report released by CMHC today. Housing starts increased in January to 578 units compared with 363 in January 2011. The increase occurred in both
the single-detached and multi-family sectors.

Single-detached starts in January increased by 53% year-over-year to 314 units, up from 205 in January 2011, while multi-family starts increased by 67% to 264 units.

“The gain represents a strong start to the year for Edmonton’s single-detached builders,” noted Richard Goatcher, CMHC’s Senior Market Analyst for Edmonton. “However, it should be noted that last year’s starts were hampered by heavy snow and cold temperatures which delayed
production across the Capital region,” he added.

Take our poll on Facebook - white cabinets never go out of style, but most new homes in Edmonton seem to have stained cabinets. Which do you prefer?

I was happily surprised when I checked our analytics yesterday. Our Edmonton MLS® Search web site - edmontonrealestate.pro - reached a new milestone and got over 1 million page views in the month of January! Thanks to everyone who uses the site to find real estate in Edmonton! We will continue to improve the site and add new features as long as people keep using it. With the average time on site over ten minutes, people clearly like it. Our clients enjoy extra traffic to their listings, since our listings are featured at the top of the results whenever they are included in a user's search. That's the beauty of the Internet - a small company that focuses on quality and details can kick the big guy's butts.

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 403 (358, 383, 438)
# Sales: 189 (177, 139, 109)
Ratio: 47% (49%, 36%, 25%)
# Price changes: 138 (119, 111, 125)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 237 (122, 160, 143)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -23 (59, 84, 186)
Active single family home listings: 2008 (2020, 2013, 1972)
Active condo listings: 1236 (1237, 1182, 1139)
Homes 4-week running average: $359k ($358k, $353k, $357k)
Condos 4-week running average: $210k ($208k, $211k, $220k)

Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Had enough stats this week so I'll leave it at that. Enjoy the weekend!

The average residential sale price was $318,034 up from $311k last year and $316k last month. The median sale price was $312k up from $307k last year and $303k last month. Sales outside of Edmonton must have held prices up since we know from our preliminary report on Edmonton only, prices in most categories were down.

There were 5,303 listings on the market at the end of the month compared to 5,633 last year and 5,316 last month. So we are starting the year off with a normal inventory level. Will inventory levels follow a normal pattern, or rise dramatically in the next few months? It remains to be seen whether or not the 5th anniversary of the boom will see investors dumping product on the market as their payout penalties are no longer a factor.

2441 new listings came on the market in January, well ahead of last year and higher than average. This will definitely be something to keep an eye on.

*We adjust the residential sales total for the current month to account for unreported sales. Every month 6% of sales on average are not reported to the Association in time for the monthly report. The following month the numbers are updated to reflect the total sales during the previous month. That means the current month always looks worse compared to previous months. For example, in December there were 829 reported sales which I adjusted to 879 sales, and the actual sales for December were 881 so I was only off by 2 sales whereas the Association was off by 52. So far our adjusted numbers have been far closer to the actual numbers than those reported by the Association each month (so far on average I am off by 1 sale whereas the association is under reporting by 77 sales on average each month).

Condo sales improved slightly from last year, but were down from last month - there were 184 condo sales in January in Edmonton compared to 225 last month and 169 last year.

Single family homes sold for $361,644 on average in Edmonton in January which was unchanged from last year and down from $367k last month. The median sale price for single family homes was $340k compared to $348k last month and $339k last year. Meanwhile, condos sold on average for $210,034, down from $216k last year and $229k last month. The median sale price for condos was $200k compared to $215k last month and $210k.

The average price per square foot for single for single family homes was $249 compared to $255 last month and $248. The average price per square foot for condos was $210 compared to $223 last month and $215 last year.

As always, this is our preliminary report on the real estate market in January, and our final report will follow when the final numbers are released by the REALTORS® Association.

There are a number of answers to that question... first of all, when you look at the chart tracking the average price trends for condos and single family homes, you can see there are much greater fluctuations in average condo prices than single family home prices. The simple explanation for that is that there are more sales of single family homes in Edmonton, which means more data to work with, which means more reliable analysis of the data.

When you add in the fact that the number of condo sales is very low for the past month or so, you get even less reliable data.

I took it a step further though... I have tabulated the number of sales of condos in different prices ranges for the last 30 days, as well as 1 month with a high average price (August), one with a low average price (October) and 2 months with average prices somewhere in the middle (November and June). 

In the past 30 days there have only been 172 total condo sales, 15 of which were under $100,000. When you look at June, there were 415 total sales, 17 of which were under $100,000. Sales on the bottom end of the price spectrum made up 9% of total sales in the past 30 days, and only 4% of sales in June. Here is how it all breaks down:

Condo Sales Breakdown

You can also see that sales over $400k made up only 3% of the past 30 days, VS 6% of sales in October. There are all kinds of inferences and deductions you can make from the above data, but the most important thing to keep in mind is that I post the averages so we can follow the overall trend, not get caught up in weekly fluctuations.

UPDATE:

I added a polynomial trend line to the average prices over the past year and its quite interesting. Even though the fluctuations in pricing for condos are greater on the short term, over the course of the year the fluctuation in pricing is greater for single family homes. The trend line only moves $10k for condos, but for single family homes the spread is greater - about $30k. So it would appear that seasonality has a greater affect on single family home prices than condo prices. Food for thought for sure...

Edmonton real estate price trends

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 358 (383, 438, 239)
# Sales: 177 (139, 109, 74)
Ratio: 49% (36%, 25%, 31%)
# Price changes: 119 (111, 125, 73)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 122 (160, 143, 577)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 59 (84, 186, -412)
Active single family home listings: 2020 (2013, 1972, 1843)
Active condo listings: 1237 (1182, 1139, 1067)
Homes 4-week running average: $358k ($353k, $357k, $366k)
Condos 4-week running average: $208k ($211k, $220k, $223k)

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting 684 sales so far this month for the greater Edmonton area. The pace has picked up each week this month and we should end up with around 800-850 sales by the end of the month (similar to last year, but below average overall).

Edmonton real estate prices

Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Have a great weekend!

Seriously though, it has often amazed me that even though Edmonton and Calgary brokerages are governed and regulated under the same Act, the way business is transacted in each city differs in a number of ways. Now I’m not trashing one city over another (besides Edmonton is clearly better) I'm just pointing out a difference in practice. The Calgary Real Estate Board recently decided that members no longer have to report pending sales, whereas in Edmonton we haven't had to report pending sales for quite some time.  (When a conditional offer has been accepted by all parties it is considered pending). Once the conditions are removed then it's unconditional.

So whats the big deal?

Well, like many things it depends on perspective. If you are trying to sell your property and it's reported as pending, then it will not show up when agents search for properties unless they search for active and pending listings. In many cases a buyer might not be interested in viewing a property where the seller has the leverage of another deal, or they might not want to get emotionally invested in a property that already has a potential deal in place. So there would be a good chance your property would receive reduced activity. I say good chance because I can’t prove it definitively, but our experience shows it will not receive the full attention of the market place.

From the buyer's perspective you may want to know about all the homes on the market, whether they are pending or not. You could actually be looking at a pending listings and not even know it. If the seller is cautious that it is not a done deal, possibly because of the terms, or the buyer, or buyer's agent's credibility, or just a hunch, the seller may instruct their agent not to disclose other offers.

Whatever the case may be, this is one of those areas where Calgary and Edmonton have operated differently until now. Some other differences between practices in the two cities include:

• In Calgary it is quite common for buyers to have a walkthrough prior to closing on resale properties. This is unheard of in Edmonton. In fact, when I have had lawyers from Calgary handling the conveyancing they have questioned the lack of a walkthrough on the contract. My simple response is that you would have a hard time getting an offer accepted with a walkthrough (unless you are dealing with a private seller).
• In Calgary they regularly use the CBS codes on their keyboxes. This is an additional code that the buyer's agent must obtain from the sellers agent in order to open the keybox for a specific property. When I have used the CBS code here, not only have I had to teach every agent how to use the code, I get a fair bit of negative blowback on that extra step and in some cases miss out on showings.

These are just a couple of minor examples. I can’t even say one association is more proactive than the other; at times Edmonton has blazed the trail adopting new technologies and practices, and at other times Calgary has led the way. No matter what, it's still fun to tease my Calgary counterparts.