There are a number of answers to that question... first of all, when you look at the chart tracking the average price trends for condos and single family homes, you can see there are much greater fluctuations in average condo prices than single family home prices. The simple explanation for that is that there are more sales of single family homes in Edmonton, which means more data to work with, which means more reliable analysis of the data.

When you add in the fact that the number of condo sales is very low for the past month or so, you get even less reliable data.

I took it a step further though... I have tabulated the number of sales of condos in different prices ranges for the last 30 days, as well as 1 month with a high average price (August), one with a low average price (October) and 2 months with average prices somewhere in the middle (November and June). 

In the past 30 days there have only been 172 total condo sales, 15 of which were under $100,000. When you look at June, there were 415 total sales, 17 of which were under $100,000. Sales on the bottom end of the price spectrum made up 9% of total sales in the past 30 days, and only 4% of sales in June. Here is how it all breaks down:

Condo Sales Breakdown

You can also see that sales over $400k made up only 3% of the past 30 days, VS 6% of sales in October. There are all kinds of inferences and deductions you can make from the above data, but the most important thing to keep in mind is that I post the averages so we can follow the overall trend, not get caught up in weekly fluctuations.

UPDATE:

I added a polynomial trend line to the average prices over the past year and its quite interesting. Even though the fluctuations in pricing for condos are greater on the short term, over the course of the year the fluctuation in pricing is greater for single family homes. The trend line only moves $10k for condos, but for single family homes the spread is greater - about $30k. So it would appear that seasonality has a greater affect on single family home prices than condo prices. Food for thought for sure...

Edmonton real estate price trends

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 358 (383, 438, 239)
# Sales: 177 (139, 109, 74)
Ratio: 49% (36%, 25%, 31%)
# Price changes: 119 (111, 125, 73)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 122 (160, 143, 577)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 59 (84, 186, -412)
Active single family home listings: 2020 (2013, 1972, 1843)
Active condo listings: 1237 (1182, 1139, 1067)
Homes 4-week running average: $358k ($353k, $357k, $366k)
Condos 4-week running average: $208k ($211k, $220k, $223k)

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting 684 sales so far this month for the greater Edmonton area. The pace has picked up each week this month and we should end up with around 800-850 sales by the end of the month (similar to last year, but below average overall).

Edmonton real estate prices

Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Have a great weekend!

Seriously though, it has often amazed me that even though Edmonton and Calgary brokerages are governed and regulated under the same Act, the way business is transacted in each city differs in a number of ways. Now I’m not trashing one city over another (besides Edmonton is clearly better) I'm just pointing out a difference in practice. The Calgary Real Estate Board recently decided that members no longer have to report pending sales, whereas in Edmonton we haven't had to report pending sales for quite some time.  (When a conditional offer has been accepted by all parties it is considered pending). Once the conditions are removed then it's unconditional.

So whats the big deal?

Well, like many things it depends on perspective. If you are trying to sell your property and it's reported as pending, then it will not show up when agents search for properties unless they search for active and pending listings. In many cases a buyer might not be interested in viewing a property where the seller has the leverage of another deal, or they might not want to get emotionally invested in a property that already has a potential deal in place. So there would be a good chance your property would receive reduced activity. I say good chance because I can’t prove it definitively, but our experience shows it will not receive the full attention of the market place.

From the buyer's perspective you may want to know about all the homes on the market, whether they are pending or not. You could actually be looking at a pending listings and not even know it. If the seller is cautious that it is not a done deal, possibly because of the terms, or the buyer, or buyer's agent's credibility, or just a hunch, the seller may instruct their agent not to disclose other offers.

Whatever the case may be, this is one of those areas where Calgary and Edmonton have operated differently until now. Some other differences between practices in the two cities include:

• In Calgary it is quite common for buyers to have a walkthrough prior to closing on resale properties. This is unheard of in Edmonton. In fact, when I have had lawyers from Calgary handling the conveyancing they have questioned the lack of a walkthrough on the contract. My simple response is that you would have a hard time getting an offer accepted with a walkthrough (unless you are dealing with a private seller).
• In Calgary they regularly use the CBS codes on their keyboxes. This is an additional code that the buyer's agent must obtain from the sellers agent in order to open the keybox for a specific property. When I have used the CBS code here, not only have I had to teach every agent how to use the code, I get a fair bit of negative blowback on that extra step and in some cases miss out on showings.

These are just a couple of minor examples. I can’t even say one association is more proactive than the other; at times Edmonton has blazed the trail adopting new technologies and practices, and at other times Calgary has led the way. No matter what, it's still fun to tease my Calgary counterparts.

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 383 (438, 239, 69)
# Sales: 139 (109, 74, 91)
Ratio: 36% (25%, 31%, 132%)
# Price changes: 111 (125, 73, 29)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 160 (143, 577, 105)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 84 (186, -412, -127)
Active single family home listings: 2013 (1972, 1843, 2094)
Active condo listings: 1182 (1139, 1067, 1209)
Homes 4-week running average: $353k ($357k, $366k, $366k)
Condos 4-week running average: $211k ($220k, $223k, $231k)

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting 424 sales so far this month for the Greater Edmonton area. The pace should pick up, but with only 11 days left in the month it looks like we will see below average sales for January. It's kind of hard to believe, because when we are trying to make appointments to show properties to buyers it's hard to find many that aren't pending. We've had a few clients miss out on properties they really liked this week while they were thinking about making an offer. If you're in an area where there are no for sale signs, and are thinking of selling, this may be the time. On the other hand, if you tried to sell last year and were unsuccessful, and are thinking of bringing your home back on the market at a higher price (we are seeing a lot of that, especially in St. Albert), prepare for more disappointment. 

Edmonton real estate prices

Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Edmonton ranked second in CIBC's measure or economic momentum, up from 11th in the 2011 Q1 report. The ranking reflects the city's strong labour market with overall employment rising by almost eight per cent year-over-year in the third quarter—the fastest pace among all of Canada's top cities. "The city also enjoyed one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation (5.7 per cent as of the third quarter of 2011) while the quality of employment is relatively elevated (ranked 4th among all cities)," notes Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal.

"As well, Edmonton's population is now rising by a year-over-year rate of 1.7 per cent—well above the national average, while the numbers of consumer and business bankruptcies are among the lowest in the nation."

CIBC Metropolitan Economic Activity Index (2011 Q3)

Rank CMA 3Q Moving Average
1. Toronto 23.0
2. Edmonton 20.0
3. Kitchener 18.0
4. Halifax 16.8
5. Vancouver 15.5
6. Ottawa 15.2
7. Montréal 14.9
8. Regina 13.8
9. Calgary 13.1
10. Trois-Rivières 11.7
11. Québec City 11.5
12. Winnipeg 11.1
13. St. John's 11.0
14. Hamilton 10.7
15. Sherbrooke 9.5
16. Kingston 7.5
17. Saint John 7.1
18. Sudbury 6.7
19. Saskatoon 6.4
20. Victoria 5.9
21. St. Catharines-Niagara 5.6
22. London 5.2
23. Windsor 0.4
24. Saguenay -1.8
25. Thunder Bay -3.4

Average of 25 CMAs 10.2

About the CIBC Metropolitan Economic Activity Index
Using 9 key macroeconomic variables, CIBC's metropolitan index of economic activity is structured in a way that approximates the change in each city's level of economic activity. With data going back in history, the index monitors not only the current performance of a given city but also tracks its cyclical behaviour against the national economy and other census metropolitan areas (CMAs). The focus is on the 25 largest CMAs in Canada.

The macro variables used to develop the index are:

Population growth; Employment growth; Unemployment rate; Full-time share in total employment; Personal bankruptcy rate; Business bankruptcy rate; Housing starts; MLS Housing resales; and Non-Residential building permits. The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/metro_monitor.pdf

Damn its cold! What happened to that beautiful mild winter we were having? It seems like winter has arrived with a vengeance.

A person called in on one of our builder's properties this morning saying there were no tracks to the home but the upstairs balcony door was wide open. WOW! It was a sharp reminder that if you have a vacant property you will need to check on it frequently. Make sure the walks are shovelled and the heat is on. The last thing you want is a flood because of frozen pipes.

Depending on the home you may want to set the thermostat to a reasonable temperature, especially if it is going to be shown to potential buyers. There is nothing more uncomfortable for a buyer who has come to see your home at -30 to find out it's better outside.

The beauty of cold weather means our website traffic shoots through the roof as “property porn” goes to the next level. Whether these are actual people interested in buying or people that are just going stir crazy checking out www.edmontonrealestate.pro because they have nothing else to do remains to be seen. I do know I am answering a lot more questions about specific properties right now than normal.

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 438 (239, 69, 152)
# Sales: 109 (74, 91, 172)
Ratio: 25% (31%, 132%, 113%)
# Price changes: 125 (73, 29, 68)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 143 (577, 105, 221)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: 186 (-412, -127, -241)
Active single family home listings: 1972 (1843, 2094, 2167)
Active condo listings: 1139 (1067, 1209, 1246)
Homes 4-week running average: $357k ($366k, $366k, $371k)
Condos 4-week running average: $220k ($223k, $231k, $227k)

I'm beginning to believe, based on seasonality and trends, that January is my new favourite time to look for a property. It used to be December, because there was not much going on and sellers were motivated. However, given how inventory has come on in January in recent years, and how it outperforms sales, it seems like a good time to shop with lower competition and prices, and more selection.

Edmonton Real Estate Prices

Edmonton real estate listings and sales

Other than that the year was uneventful until we found out we were pregnant. I say "we" metephorically for those of you who will point out that men can't get pregnant. In short order we found out we were having not one, but two. Ironically this news was delivered the same day my daughter entered her first day of high school. Needless to say it took me a few weeks to wrap my head around it all and just as we moved from acceptance to excitement we got some really bad news.

Sara's dad passed away suddenly at the beginning of December. John Maclennan was a former high school teacher, farmer, coach, hall of fame quarter back at McMaster University, conservationist and volunteer extraordinaire. At 74 John was in excellent shape, ate very well, and biked regularly. The week before John passed away my dad was taken to the Grey Nuns Cardiac care unit (to whom I must give koodoos to for excellent service and the care they gave my dad). He was in four 4 days while they deliberated the issues and the potential remedies.

So when news came about Sara's dad we were both in shock. The rest of the month was a whirlwind of travel back and forth to Ontario. The passing of John reminded me once again that life is so very precious, and it taught me a whole lot more than that. While I interceded the many phone calls that came to Sara's mom expressing their condolences, a message stuck with me because it was a recurring one: "You don't know me, and John probably wouldn't remember me, but he taught me at Nelson High School and I just wanted to say he had a profound impact on my life."
It just reaffirmed to me that we can make a positive impact on young people and strangers by the way we conduct ourselves and live our lives.

John's funeral was attended by politicians and business people from around Hamilton, farmers, teachers, neighbours and family. His friend who conducted the service told me there were over 500 people in attendance at the church service which was standing room only. There was an open mic session where former students and co-workers, neighbours, friends and family shared their favourite memories of John. Many of the students he used to have out to his farm to do "conditioning work" found that time they spent at the farm, and the time he gave to them was life altering, and many followed in his footsteps citing him as their inspiration.  Many people proudly displayed the official "license to hug" John had issued them and I myself am a converted "hugger" thanks to John. I found I had never laughed and cried so much in one day. On the night of the funeral I flew back to Edmonton and those on the plane around me must of thought I was nuts as I would recall something someone had said about John and either laugh, or well up with tears.

I share this because we realize we haven't been as attentive to the blog for the last while as we normally are, but we have tried our best and we appreciate the support and willingness of people to share their thoughts and views. We are into the new year now and are about 3 months away from welcoming two new additions to our family. So if I can leave you with one thought its this: you can make a difference in someone's life with a smile, a hug, your support, or your time, and most of all by just listening. I can't help but think if I and others were more like John the world would be a better place.

John Alexander MacLennan
December 18, 1937- December 3, 2011

John MacLennan paddling the North Saskatchewan last summer,
and 50 years earlier in the same McMaster Football Jersey.

p.s. John received many awards including being inducted into McMaster University's sports hall of fame, and coaching Nelson high school to numerous provincial basketball championships. John loved teaching and he loved McMaster University where this summer he toured my daughter and I hoping that she might one day consider going there. He loved teaching so much he dedicated his body to McMaster's medial research program to help train tomorrow's doctors. As a farmer and a teacher John was "outstanding in his field."

Here is our update on the Edmonton real estate market. (Previous week’s numbers are in brackets). For the past 7 days:

New listings: 239 (69, 152, 169)
# Sales: 74 (91, 172, 155)
Ratio: 31% (132%, 113%, 92%)
# Price changes: 73 (29, 68, 128)
# Expired/Off Market Listings: 577 (105, 221, 197)
Net loss/gain in listings this week: -412 (-127, -241, -183)
Active single family home listings: 1843 (2094, 2167, 2268)
Active condo listings: 1067 (1209, 1246, 1311)
Homes 4-week running average: $366k ($366k, $371k, $369k)

Condos 4-week running average: $223k ($231k, $227k, $225k)Well, there is no New Year's hang over when it comes to real estate in Edmonton, people were busy getting homes (back) on the market this week. The numbers this week are much the same as they were at this time last year - very few sales, tons of expired listings, and tons of new listings. We should continue to see the inventory grow for the next few months. The average price for condos and single family homes starts out the year ahead of last year, but this doesn't mean a whole lot because the number of sales is low, so the sample size is small creating larger fluctuations in the average. We'll see what happens over the next few weeks as sales start to increase.

Edmonton real estate prices

Edmonton real estate listings and sales