Efficient Baseball

Hank Blalock: Everyday Player?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 26 Apr 2007 20:50:00 +0000

For some reason, managers seem to think that Hank Blalock is an everyday player. New manager Ron Washington is no different. Blalock has been in a downhill slide the last three seasons and doesn’t look to be heading anywhere productive in 2007.

First, Blalock can’t hit lefties at all. For his career, Blalock has hit .223/.274/.347 vs. lefties with 19 HR and 180 K’s in 796 plate appearances. In 2004, it looked as if Blalock had figured it out, hitting .282/.344/.436 with 5 bombs in 218 plate appearances. However in 2005, Blalock fell to just .196/.228/.356 in 202 plate appearances with 53 K’s and only 7 BB. Then in 2006, Blalock “rebounded” to hit .216/.281/.351 in 178 plate appearances. He did cut his strikeouts in half in 2006 with just 27 versus lefties. In 2007, Blalock does not have enough plate appearances (17) for a proper sample size but in last night’s game versus Cleveland and C.C. Sabathia, Blalock struck out in his first two at bats bailing early and flailing wildly at Sabathia’s off speed pitches. It is safe to say that Blalock wasn’t very comfortable. Finishing the night with four strikeouts, it could have just been a bad night, but watching Blalock face Sabathia, he just looked overmatched.

The perplexing thing is that even if you were considering platooning Blalock at 3B, he doesn’t even really hit right-handers all that well. The last three seasons, Blalock has hit .283/.352/.475 against righties which, at 3B, most teams would like something better than that. However, in 2006, Blalock fell to .284/.342/.434 against righties which are very average numbers, especially by someone who is so routinely hailed as a power hitting third baseman.

Also considering that most of his damage is done at home (.296/.363/.498 the last 3 seasons) and that he is atrocious on the road (.241/.303/.391 the last 3 seasons), Blalock should not be getting regular duty.

Blalock is an average defender at 3B not providing the sort of defense that makes up for any offensive shortcomings that you might have. The Rangers had the opportunity to trade him the last couple of seasons and should have done so. Now that will be much harder to do, as Blalock looks like he will play everyday showing other teams around the league that he has nothing to offer.

Brewers at a Glance

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Tue, 24 Apr 2007 16:42:00 +0000

I’ve been meaning to write about the Brewers for about a week now, but got a little bogged down and have been unable to do so. Through the first three weeks of the season, Milwaukee has taken a modest 2.5 game lead over the Astros in the weak NL Central. In fact, at 12-7, the Brewers are the only team in this division over .500. With only 19 of their 162 games played, it’s too early to draw very many sound conclusions, but some potential flaws and strengths do stick out.

I saw Dave Bush throw last Tuesday night (April 17th) in Cincinnati, and the results weren’t very pretty. Bush maintained good arm action from his fastball to change-up, but appeared to be slowing considerably on his curve. The end result of this (along with an aborted follow-through) was his leaving the breaking pitch up for most of the night. He did flash a sharp curve with good break during Alex Gonzalez’s first inning AB on the 2-1 pitch, but that was more of an anomaly on this evening. Having said that, I don’t want to crucify the guy after seeing just one 5 inning start. During 2006, both his K/9IP and K/BB rates took jumps in the right direction, and they’ve continued on those paths during his first 25 innings of 2007. With Bush, Sheets, and Capuano, the Brewers should at least have a serviceable rotation (especially if Capuano can reign in is HR/9IP rate a little).

Offensively, Milwaukee has been off to a good start, with 6 of their 7 players that have at least 50 ABs slugging over .500. In particular, the Kevin Mench/Geoff Jenkins platoon have been hitting well, posting OPSs of .875 and 1.008, respectively. Although these starts are encouraging, digging a little deeper into their stats give a cause for concern. After reading Marc Normandin’s profiles (registration required) on both Jenkins and Mench, and noting Jenkins’ low walk rate thus far (I’m aware, it’s a small sample size) and the fact that ~63% of Mench’s ABs have come against right handed pitchers, a red flag has to go up. The Brewers have over $10 million total committed to these two this year, which should provide plenty of incentive to use them as efficiently as possible.

The Brewers will likely experience issues with outfield defense as well. Throughout the course of the game in Cincinnati, Bill Hall did not look comfortable in CF. He played a Brandon Phillips double awkwardly and took several false steps on otherwise routine plays. Combine this with the limited range of Jenkins and Mench (especially if they continue to play both at the same time), and you have a suspect outfield. This is evidenced by the fact that, through today, Milwaukee pitching has given up 48 doubles, the most in the NL. Not to exonerate the pitching staff from this stat, but the limited range and inexperience in the outfield certainly doesn’t help. In fairness to Hall, it should be noted that he has played only 23 games in the outfield and final judgment should be withheld until given time to adapt.

Rounding out a high level review of the current NL Central leader, let’s take a quick look at their bullpen. Left handed specialist Brian Shouse looked good against the Reds’ lefty sluggers, allowing only a single to Josh Hamilton before striking out Dunn and Griffey. Throughout his career, Shouse has held lefties to a .219/.278/.344 line, and while his use is definitely limited, the $975k the Brewers are paying him isn’t a bad deal. Additionally, late inning relievers Francisco Cordero and Derrick Turnbow are both strikeout pitchers that will serve Milwaukee well, even if they are misused. Ignore Cordero’s high ERA with Texas in ’06, as he had a BABIP significantly higher than his norm that should regress back towards the mean this season.

Prior to the start of this season, I thought that the Brewers would come away with the NL Central title and, as of right now, I haven’t see anything to sway me away from that opinion. This isn’t so much due to them being particularly good as it is to my perception of them being the least flawed team in a weak division.

The Freel Deal

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 17 Apr 2007 01:21:00 +0000

The Cincinnati Reds today signed current CF Ryan Freel to a two-year $7 million dollar deal. Freel taking over for Ken Griffey Jr. in CF while Junior moved to right has been plugging away with the Reds, doing a little bit of everything the last three seasons.

Freel, has played all over the diamond for the Reds, filling in at third, second or in the outfield and has now won a starting job. While the money given to Freel is a nice reward for a guy that has sacrificed his body over the years, diving and playing all out, it is money that could have probably been used somewhere where it is needed more.

The Reds are a team functioning on one of the smaller budgets in baseball standing 20th out of 30 teams in payroll at just under 70 million. Not that this is an obscene amount of money that Freel will be getting compared to what other players of lesser talent got this past offseason.

However, considering that Freel is 31 and an older 31 considering the pounding he puts on his body, this could end up being wasted money that could have been spent on the draft or evaluating players or scouting.

The last three seasons, Freel has put up very respectable numbers, (.278/.370/.380) but those are the apex of Freel's talent. They won't improve any more than that and if the Reds are lucky, they won't fall from that.

With that said, skipper Jerry Narron has said that he will try and play Freel a little bit at third to give Encarnacion and break and to give rookie Josh Hamilton some AB's in CF. Hopefully, this will cut into some of Freel's at bats.

With Freel being a fighter is whole life, you hope this new security won't cause him to relax, because when he does, his effectiveness will falter mightily.

Remember This?

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 13:23:00 +0000

I was watching the Red Sox-Mariners game and the pitching matchup definitely met expectations. I don't really want to delve into that now, though...I'm happy to say that both pitchers have very impressive stuff and leave it at that for the time being. What I did want to mention, though, is the relay throw from Adrian Beltre's double in the top of the 5th. Manny wasn't involved in this in any way, but it still got me thinking back to one of the funniest things that has ever happened on a baseball field.

After searching for a while, I finally found video of it on the "Baseball is Heaven's Gift to the Mortals" blog. The link is about halfway through the article. If you don't know what I'm referencing, you're in for some serious comedy. Enjoy:

http://reid.mlblogs.com/scoreboard_26_6/2006/02/the_greatest_pl.html

Rangers Will Benefit from Patience

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Wed, 11 Apr 2007 17:35:00 +0000

Before their recent success against the Devil Rays, Rangers fans were already lamenting about the team’s lack of production. Texas scored only 7 runs against the Angels in their opening series, and dropped that total to 6 against the Red Sox later in the week. While you could argue their pitching has been more of an issue, as both Vicente Padilla and Brandon McCarthy are at about ½ of what their normal K/9IP rates are through their first two starts (they’re going to get better, don’t worry), I’d like to take a closer look at this offense.

A couple of days ago, Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels was on a local Dallas station (AM 1310, The Ticket) saying that, although they haven’t scored many runs (this was before the Devil Rays games, mind you), he was pleased at the number of pitches that his team had seen. I decided to take a look at the team by team splits this morning, and if I were Daniels, I’d like what I saw too.

As of today, the Rangers have seen 1,223 pitches this season, which is good for 3rd in all of baseball. However, this can be misleading due to different number of games, extra innings, etc. Indexing this to the number of plate appearances (PA) yields 4.03 pitches/PA. The only other team to average more that 4 pitches/PA is the Cleveland Indians (4.08 pitches/PA). Keep in mind that, due to the snow last weekend, the Indians have played about half as many games as Texas.

Of course, both of these are very small sample sizes, but that’s exactly what makes this statistic important. This stat reveals the process over the end result. These 8 games of the 2007 season have told us relatively little about what the Rangers will be, but do shed light on their approach. A good example of this can be found in last night’s Braves-Nats game; specifically 2 of Jeff Francoeur’s ABs (I mentioned these in last night’s post). Francoeur came to the plate twice last night immediately following a walk in cases where pitchers were clearly having control issues and had worked themselves into jams while putting multiple men on base. In these two ABs he went 1 for 2 with a three run homerun. The issue here, though, is that his ABs were over both times after the first pitch. The result was nice, but the process makes me want to throw something through my TV. This is what I mean about sample size: Francoeur isn’t going to SLG 2.000 in these situations, but you can bet that he’ll be hacking and making far more outs than a more efficient mindset would yield. These ABs reveal something about his approach at the plate.

This same thinking carries over to the Rangers. Blalock hasn’t been a very useful player since the 2004 season (except for at home in 2005, but he was even terrible there last year), Young’s reliance on AVG scares me, and watching Sosa swing at a breaking pitch is funny/sad; but they have guys to wear pitchers down and the more you see of a bullpen, the better off you are. Wilkerson particularly catches a lot of criticism but is a pitch siphon at the plate (4.29 pitches/PA career), still gets on base, and can even slug a little if healthy.

The Rangers probably aren’t going to the World Series…no shock there. But they do play in what I think is the second weakest division in baseball (NL Central being the first) and have a decent shot at taking the AL West. Their offense isn't going to lead the league in runs (obviously), but don’t look for them to slide to the 2.17 runs per game they averaged against the Angels and Red Sox either.

Padres' Towers Making the Right Moves

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Wed, 11 Apr 2007 04:05:00 +0000

As reported on their website, the Padres agreed to a new contract today with RH pitcher Chris Young. According to the site, Young will receive a $500k signing bonus along with $750k this season, $2.5MM in ’08, $4.5MM in ’09, $6.25MM in ’10, and an option for $8.5MM (although it could be as much as $11MM pending performance) in ’11. If his back holds up, this is an excellent signing.

Due to his 6’ 10” stature, Young’s fastball reaches the plate quicker than radar guns would suggest. His K/9 IP rate has been going in the right direction, as it reached over 8 per 9 innings in 2006.

What was surprising, however, was that upon leaving Texas, his HR/9 IP actually increased. In 2005, Young gave up 1.04 HR/9 in Texas, but upped this to 1.41 HR/9 after his move to pitcher-friendly PETCO (he actually gave up 18 at home vs. 10 on the road). His .49 GB/FB rate is telling and although he has always been a fly ball pitcher, this was about a 28% drop from his 2005 campaign. It stands to reason, though, that this could very possibly be due to his injured back. I honestly don’t recall watching any of his starts last season, but it seems that if his back was giving him problems, he could have issues with his follow through (it wouldn't take much, due to his height and already elevated release point) which would result in him leaving pitches up. But, as I said, if back problems are behind him and he can learn to keep the ball lower in the zone, this is a very good signing.

Even better, Young’s signing comes on the heels of the Adrian Gonzalez extension earlier in the month. With those two signed through 2011 (if options are exercised), Peavy inked through ’08 (option), Brian Giles under control with an option through ’09 (his power is gone, but at least he gets on), and an above average bullpen, the Padres are in good shape. I really like the way that GM Kevin Towers is building this club and, if they can find a little power, San Diego should be in contention in the coming years with Arizona for the NL West title.

Other things from Tuesday…

The Nationals are just as bad as advertised, if not worse. It’s like watching a AA team with dropped throws, misjudged flies, and no approach at the plate. You have to feel bad for manager Manny Acta , managing the worst team in baseball, he looked completely defeated (and a lot like Kevin Malone from “The Office) in the dugout:

Hudson looked very good against the Nats, but since he was throwing against…well, the Nats, I was looking at the way he pitched over his line (both were good). Keeping the ball down all night, Hudson showed good action on his fastball and worked well on both sides of the plate. It’s only been two starts, but from a scouting standpoint, you have to be pleased with what Hudson’s shown this year.

Francoeur had a horrible AB in the first, swinging at the first pitch he saw with one out and grounding into a double play with the bases loaded after Andruw Jones had just walked on four straight pitches. In the 5th, however, Francoeur worked a 5 pitch AB and eventually took a breaking ball over the outer half of the plate into right center. He is a maddening player. Even his homerun in the 8th was on the first pitch after a walk. Good result, but look at the process…I’m not a fan of that AB.

Alex Gordon hit the first bomb of his career. KC fans need to be patient with him…he’s going to be worth the wait.

Alex Rodriguez hit a homerun in his 4th consecutive game and added two walks to tonight’s line. However, he’s going 4 ½ ABs between homeruns this year, and as any New Yorker will tell you, that’s just unacceptable.

Mariners and Cubs fans have to be pretty worried after the debuts of Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis…pretty terrible. You think every player becoming a free agent after this season is just praying that Bill Bavasi and Jim Hendry can hold their jobs through next offseason?

Lidgeastrophe

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 01:01:00 +0000

What in the world got into Brad Lidge? It seems that after the Pujols home run in the 2005 playoffs he was never able to regain the dominance that he showed the majority of 2003, 2004, and 2005. I believe that after that home run, he lost confidence in his stuff and therefore confidence in his delivery so now he has trouble duplicating his delivery.

The problem was compounded in 2006 when Lidge changed his delivery several times. Formerly a starter, Lidge always employed a wind up with the bases empty like a starter would(most relievers pitch from the stretch regardless). Last year he went to starting from the stretch, then went back to a wind up, made some other changes, and pretty soon he had lost any reference point to his delivery. There were also grumblings around the league of Lidge tipping his pitches.

After Lidge's disastrous appearance Sunday, Astros manager Phil Garner has decided to go with Dan Wheeler as the closer at least until Lidge can right the ship. On Sunday in 2/3 of an inning, Lidge walked 2, gave up 3 hits of which two were for extra bases and 2 earned runs. This on the heels of giving up a game tying homer to Xavier Nady in the season opener.

What is frustrating is that Lidge still has good stuff. A good fastball, and his hard, biting slider. In the last 3 seasons Lidge's number are as follows:

As you can see, even last year he still maintained fantastic strike out rates which means he still has his good stuff. Two alarming stats however. The first one is that he is walking more batters dropping nearly two strikeouts per walk in 2006 than the 4.48 he averaged in 2005. Second, he doubled his home runs allowed which is problematic for a closer. 5 of 10 homers came with 2 outs already in the inning. What that says is that it seems as though Lidge gets lazy when he thinks the game is in the bag and leaves a pitch over the plate for a guy to mash. The walks point to his lack of a consistent delivery which is not allowing him to throw his slider as much because his slider isn't designed to get called strikes. It is a pitch designed for the swing and miss. And with his inability to put his fastball where he wants it, the batter can now sit on pitches a great deal easier. Because he is always behind in the count he isn't throwing his slider as much which makes him less effective because his slider was one of the best in the game. Last year was the first year that batters got on base at a +.300 clip and slugged at a +.400 clip. Time will tell if we have seen the last of Brad Lidge.

Now, the question is, is Dan Wheeler the guy to replace Lidge? Well, the last two seasons, Wheels has averaged over 8K/9 innings and only gave up 7 and 5 homers, respectively. Combine that with low walk totals and Wheeler looks to be an effective replacement for Lidge. The last three seasons, Wheels has only allowed the league to hit .238/.294/.384 off of him. The only cause for concern is that in the last three seasons lefties have hit .285/.350/.469 off of him. He also has a GB/FB ratio of .79 the last two seasons which is less than desirable.

The Astros have had success promoting closers from their bullpen. After Billy Wagner left, Octavio Dotel became the closer, and then after Dotel, Lidge became the closer. The Astros are hoping that Wheeler can do the job if Lidge is in fact done as a closer, at least in Houston.

The Win/Loss Fallacy

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 16:58:00 +0000

I briefly mentioned the error of using Win/Loss (W-L) records to judge a pitcher in an early post by referencing Horacio Ramirez’s 2003 campaign (to recap, he went 12-4 with over 9 runs of support per win). I thought that it may be of use to look at the significance of these records over a larger sample size and not just one player in one season, since we are constantly bombarded (by announcers, writers, co-workers, roommates, etc.) with how much a pitcher won in order to determine his worth.

Before looking at it mathematically, the reasons for a W-L record being irrelevant really should be fairly obvious. No matter how well a pitcher throws, he is completely reliant upon his offense for help in getting the win. Even in the case of a shutout, the pitcher requires at least one run for the W (that is, of course, assuming that this isn’t taking place in the NL and the pitcher could potentially hit a homerun to provide his own offense as well).

To test the validity of the W-L records, I ran regressions of several pitching metrics against Winning Percentage (W%) to try and gauge the affect that pitchers have directly on their own records. A few notes on the model:

The pitching metrics used in the models are Stikeouts per 9 innings pitched (K/9), Homeruns allowed per 9 innings pitched (HR/9), Walks per 9 innings pitched (BB/9), and Earned Run Average (ERA).
The ERA metric is used as more of an “anti-metric” to the first three, as it is not near as good of an indicator of actual pitcher performance. Explaining/proving this would make this way too long, so I would suggest reading JC Bradbury’s paper “Does the Baseball Labor Market Properly Value Pitchers?”, as it does a great job of breaking down the deceptions of ERAs.
I used the performance records of every pitcher that has thrown over 160 innings in each of the past 7 years (yielding 628 samples). I omitted relievers because the rules for getting a win are ridiculous enough as they are, without taking into account that relievers can actually give up the lead and still obtain the win under the right conditions.
I ran regressions of these metrics against Winning Percentage instead of number of wins to account for the bias that would occur among pitchers with a different number of innings pitched. If two pitchers of the same caliber (and with the same teams and luck) pitch different amounts of innings (assuming that this is due to one having more starts), then the pitcher with more innings has the likelihood of having more wins.

After attempting several different models, the one that most explained Winning Percentage with pitcher-controlled performances was:

W% = βº + β¹(HR/9) + β²(K/9) + β³(BB/9) + ε

(I know that these should be subscript by the Betas, but I can’t figure out how to do that in Word, so I’m using superscript instead)

Per the t-stats, all of these variables are significant given a 5% significance level and the degrees of freedom for this model. Additionally, the signs of the coefficients are as predicted; HR/9 and BB/9 have a negative affect on W%, while K/9 has a positive affect. Having said that, the model doesn’t explain all that much.

The R² of .2289 shows that only ~23% of the variance in W% is explained by outcomes that pitchers directly have control over. Individually, K/9 has the closest correlation with W% (.346). Coincidentally, this is probably the best single stat to measure a pitcher by, as it reflects an ability to get batters out, and is the least volatile (from year to year) of the metrics. BB/9 has the smallest correlation (negative, of course), at -.174…maybe this is why Russ Ortiz still has a job.

With coefficients in place, this is how the model looks:

W% = .587 - .104(HR/9) + .023(K/9) – .028(BB/9) + ε

Again, the low correlation and R² results illustrate just how little the pitcher-only influenced metrics have to do with W-L records. This is not an argument against these metrics, but rather against the notion of judging a player by W%.

To contrast, we can run regressions to determine how much of W% is explained by a pitchers ERA. Referring back to JC Bradbury’s paper, remember that ERA his highly based on luck and the quality of defense behind you. At any rate, the model (much like the first) looks like this:

W% = β¹ + β²(ERA) + ε

(In fairness, it should be noted that I didn’t adjust for park factor or league in this model. I’m assuming that it would make a negligible difference.)

As expected, since ERA takes some luck and defense into account as well, it provides more explanation for the variance of W%. The t-stat is significant under the same conditions as above (save for a slight change in degrees of freedom), the sign of the coefficient is as expected (negative), and the R² of .351 explains ~35% of the variance in W%. While this is an improvement, it still does not serve as a particularly accurate model. However, it does prove a point further: even when taking some luck and team defensive skill into account with ERA, ~65% of the variance in W% is left unexplained.

The model with coefficients:

W% = .915 - .089(ERA)

(Note that this is saying that even if a pitcher never gives up an earned run, he will still lose ~8% of the time. This could be explained by errors and unearned runs…those are flawed for different reasons, though.)

Summing up, pitchers actually have a small part in influencing their W-L record. Defense, offensive run support, and dumb, blind luck play a much larger role in deciding what record is fixed to their name than they actually can. As simplistic as it may sound, the best thing a pitcher can do is to strike an opposing hitter out. Not only does this project out well from year to year, but if a pitcher strikes out enough hitters consistently; eventually the Yankees will sign him, and he’ll have all the run support he needs.

Kind of interesting from the models run using the data over the past 7 seasons:

Zach Greinke had the most unlucky year of all in 2005. In that season, he had metrics of 5.61 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, and a walk rate of 2.61 BB/9. Not great, but certainly warranting more than the 5-17 record he was saddled with.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Paul Abbott enjoyed the luckiest year out of everyone in 2001. Abbott posted rates of 6.5 K/9, 1.16 HR/9, and 4.80 BB/9. Except for the walk rates (which were actually almost twice a bad), these aren't all that different from Greinke, and Abbott was rewarded with a 17-4 record.

Random Musings

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 01:57:00 +0000

1. Why is Billy Butler of the Kansas City Royals starting the season in AAA? What does he have to prove? Last year in AA he hit .331/.388/.499. Granted, Butler is horrendous in the field but he can rake, and is only 20. He could be the DH in place of Mike Sweeney who if he can stay healthy (60 games in 2006) can play 1B instead of Ross Gload. I mean come on, Ross Gload? Butler is a player for the future, and that future is bright, so why not bring him up and let him play. The Royals aren't going to contend any time soon, so why waste time with people like Ross Gload? Give Butler a shot because his upside is that much higher and he can take his lumps this season and improve for next year rather than crush people at AAA.

2. Matt Garza did not start the year up with the Twins but down at AAA as well. This move is understandable if Garza was going to be the 5th starter instead of Carlos Silva but the Twins wanted him to get consistent work at AAA because their 5th starter is going to be skipped the first month, which is what usually happens on most clubs. So they let Silva stay up, because he won't pitch much anyways. However, Garza isn't just better than Silva, he is also better than the Twins 4th starter, Sidney Ponson as well. What from the .316/.371/.466 the last three seasons against, do teams see as a good thing? Ponson is terrible. If Dave Duncan couldn't help him out, then no one can. Last year, in stops in A, AA, and AAA Garza struck out 154 in 135 innings pitched, only gave up 6 homers, and only walked 32. If they are worried about his innings, they can still limit his workload early in the season so he doesn't overwork his arm. Either way, the Fresno State product needs to be up pitching on the big club instead of Silva, Ponson, or Ramon Ortiz for that matter.

3. Against the Astros last night, righthander Ian Snell of the Pittsburgh Pirates pretty much had his way with Houston. In 6 innings of work, Snell recorded 11 strikeouts, allowed one walk and one home run to RF Jason Lane in the 5th inning on the first pitch of the at bat. Other than that blip, Snell controlled the game. His fastball was showing good life hitting 95 several times with movement. He had both his slider and his curve ball working for strikes keeping batters off balance. Don't let the 11 K's fool you either as Snell struck out 8.18/9 last season in 186 innings. He also gave up 29 long balls with 9 coming on the first pitch of the at bat showing that Snell wants to challenge hitters early and try and get ahead in the count. That is not surprising considering his youth and inexperience. So if Snell can keep the ball in the yard and improve against lefties (.305/.380/.526 in 2006) the Pirates have something to build on this season.

Opening Day

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 17:37:00 +0000

A lot of baseball yesterday/last night. I took in the entire Braves/Phillies game as well as parts of a few others and had some thoughts...

Kelly Johnson’s opening day wasn’t as bad as it looked. The Braves leadoff hitter did strike out twice, but hit the ball hard in the top of the 8th and managed to see 24 pitches in his 5 plate appearances (4.8 pitches/PA). In the field, he showed good range by chasing down a ball in shallow right and handling a slow grounder. The dropped ball in short center clearly should have been an error but, as I’m sure you all know, errors mean little if anything. A side note: Keith Law does a good job of mentioning these botched error calls in his blog (which is consistently outstanding) and lobbying for the abolition of this stat.

By contrast, Jeff Francoeur’s first game of '07 was just as bad – if not worse – than it looked. The Braves RF swung at 11 of the 16 pitches that were offered to him, and was a good foot away from making contact with a Tom Gordon curve in the 9th.

Speaking of Gordon, both he and Braves LH reliever Mike Gonzalez illustrated just how valuable it is to be able to come out of the bullpen and get a strike out. Gordon fanned PH Brayan Pena to get out of a bases loaded jam in the ninth, while Gonzalez sat down both Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard on strikes with runners on second and third and no outs in the top of the 7th.

Phillies starter Brett Meyers threw very well, but did have some issues. His 9 strikeouts (and only 2 walks) in 7 2/3 innings was very encouraging, but he couldn’t reign in his curveball most of the day. There was good break on the pitch, but he kept it up in the zone, as is evidenced by his 9 flyball outs (to 5 groundouts) and 2 HR allowed. Attribute this to opening day, since he is usually has groundball tendencies (although his GB/FB has declined somewhat the past few seasons).

Ryan Howard had a good game as well, going 2 for 4 with a walk. Nothing spectacular yesterday, I just wanted to say a quick word about his power. His stats obviously tell the story, but it is something totally different to see him live. While living in Richmond, VA in 2005, I got the chance to see him come through and play the Braves AAA team on quite a few occasions, and it was incredible. The power that he has to the opposite field is absolutely unreal. If you haven’t seen him live, I would highly recommend it.

Elsewhere in the majors...

Despite not throwing particularly well, and looking like he went on the Odalis Perez workout program of eating hotdogs and taking naps, Angels starter John Lackey was able to hold the Rangers to 1 run (unearned) over 5 innings. It’s probably good that he only went 5, though, since it gave manager Mike Scioscia plenty of time to start breaking down Scot Shields. Shields has thrown either the most or second most innings of any AL reliever in the past three seasons…check out his ERA splits by month to see the effects.

It was good to see Yankee fans boo Alex Rodriguez for a bad first inning of 2007. In the 7th, A-rod singled, stole second, and scored what would prove to be the game winning run (not to mention adding a two run shot in the 8th)…there’s no way he can win.

I haven’t seen Astros closer Brad Lidge throw yet this year, but reports are that his mechanics are out of whack and he’s having trouble locating. I’m hoping he can recover, because that fastball/slider combo of his circa 2005 is too good to be wasted.

Glavine Impressive, but...

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Mon, 02 Apr 2007 18:27:00 +0000

Real quick: we were going to post previews for each of the 6 divisions, but got lazy. Now that the season has started, it seems stupid to post previews, and we’ve abandoned that. So, on to last night’s game…

41 year old Tom Glavine looked good last night in the first game of this 2007 season. The lefty ace threw an efficient 6 innings, averaging only 14.8 pitches per inning and inducing two double play balls among the Cardinals many ground/pop outs throughout the evening. The real story here wasn’t Glavine, though, it was the Cardinals.

First off, let me acknowledge that I am very much aware that this game one of a 162 game season. Nevertheless, Sunday night had to make you uneasy if you’re a Cardinals fan.

The most puzzling event of the evening was the decision to hit Preston Wilson second in the order behind David Eckstein. Now people have different theories regarding how much difference a batting order can make, but I feel safe in saying that placing a guy in the two hole that strikes out ~25% of his trips to the plate and possesses a GB/FB ratio that is reaching towards 2 the past couple of seasons is not a good idea. In fact, in his first AB of the season, Wilson swung at the first pitch he saw, took the second, and then grounded into a double play on the third. He ended the night going 1 for 4 while grounding into the aforementioned double play and striking out twice. Again, I know that this was the first game of the season (and I’m not implying that Wilson will strike out 50% of the time), but it’s probably not going to get much better.

The rest of the Cardinals lineup featured Adam Kennedy (ranked 21st out of 23 second basemen in OPS last season at .718), Yadier Molina (20th out of 21 catchers with over 400 ABs at a .595 OPS), So Taguchi (I hate to pile on after his night in the field, but he has a career SLG. of only .398), Jim Edmonds (the 36 year old won’t be able to bounce back from injuries like he used to), Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, and Albert Pujols. Returning back to Wilson, his OPS of .730 ranked 69th out of 82 outfielders.

I’ll admit, the problems for the Cards were exasperated by the fact that there was a lefty on the mound, as Chris Duncan has obliterated right-handed pitching to the tune of .307/.379/.622. Even so, that’s in only 241 career ABs, and he opens the lineup to problems for late in games when bullpens will bring in lefty specialists to neutralize him in key situations (he may as well not bring a bat to the plate when facing a lefty).

On the plus side, the Cardinals still have Pujols, Rolen (as long as he’s healthy), Edmonds (again, if healthy), and Eckstein (at least he gets on base), and it does help that they play in what is probably the weakest division in baseball. However, it’s pretty tough to score runs when the bottom third of your lineup is made up of automatic outs (just ask the Astros).

A few notes from the game…

Rolen’s force out of Tom Glavine at second base on Lo Duca’s slow roller in the top of the 3rd further demonstrates his defensive prowess (not that he needed to). Not only in the accurate throw made while charging towards home, but in the fact that he knew a 41 year old pitcher was on the base paths.
Carlos Delgado’s double, also in the top of the 3rd, was a good show of the big first baseman’s power. Delgado’s weight had shifted over his front half, instead of remaining back, and the left-hander was still able to drive it to the wall in the opposite field.
Carpenter’s night wasn’t as bad as it looked. The Cardinals ace only allowed 3 flyball outs to his 11 groundouts and used his curve effectively at times to get up 0-1 on hitters. He wasn’t helped by Taguchi running head-long into the left field fence for the Delgado double that he should have probably caught.
A potential Cardinal rally was killed in the bottom of the third when Carpenter attempted to squeeze Adam Kennedy home and ended up getting the second basemen tagged out. This move was quite confusing to me, since Carpenter strikes out less than 30% of his plate appearances (not to mention Glavine is not a strike out pitcher), and there was no one on first to force a potential double play. LaRussa likely ran his team out of a run there.

National League West

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 20:04:00 +0000

Arizona Diamondbacks

What to Like: Brandon Webb. Last year, this groundball specialist became one of the better pitchers in the National League due to the fact that he was able to lower his walks for the second consecutive year. Couple that with his 4.06 groundball to fly ball ratio and you have a pretty successful pitcher. As long as his defense is solid behind him, Webb should have another successful campaign granted his walks stay around the 50 they have been the last two years and not the 119 he had in 2004.

What Not to Like: Trading for Randy Johnson. It would be one thing to trade for Johnson for one season, but the Diamondbacks extended his contract for another two seasons at $13 million per season. Johnson could still be an effective pitcher after back surgery, but no one is sure. While still striking out over seven batters per nine innings, Johnson gave up 32 and 28 homers the last two seasons which is alarming. Maybe the change to the National League will be good for Johnson, and at $13 million per season, the D-Backs are hoping it will be.

Underrated D-Back: Jeff DaVanon. It is always nice to have a 4th outfielder who can do a little of everything, which DaVanon does. He can get on-base (.371 in 2006), he can slug a little bit (.448 in 2006). Even though he is a switch hitter, the D-Backs would be wise to never let him hit right handed again (.205/.319/.231).

Expectation: With the D-Backs at the beginning of a new era with several young players beginning their major league careers, the future for Arizona is bright. With CF Chris Young, RF Carlos Quentin, 1B Conor Jackson, and SS Stephen Drew all starting for Arizona and outfielders Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez to arrive in the coming years, Arizona should be contending for several years to come.

Colorado Rockies

What to Like: Clint Barmes……..no, just kidding. Actually Garrett Atkins is what is to like. When judging Rocky players, the most important numbers are the road and home splits. For Atkins, his numbers were almost identical. On the road Atkins hit .313/.402./.531 with 43 walks and 43 strikeouts while hitting .346/.416/.583 with 36 walks and 33 strikeouts at home. He also hit 15 homers at home and 14 homers on the road. Those are pretty even numbers. If Atkins can duplicate those numbers, Colorado should be pretty well-off at 3B.

What Not to Like: Todd Helton’s contract. In each season through 2010 Helton will make a little over $16 million and then that will jump up to roughly $23 million in the 2011 season. Paying that amount of money to a player who is on the decline could create a lot of problems for the Rockies in the future. That is why they should take the best deal possible and trade him. While Helton was sick during the beginning of the season last year he still dropped to .266/.360/.421 on the road and his home runs have dropped from 32 to 20 to 15 the last three seasons which is a cause for concern. Although Helton was never a pure power hitter, he still had good power. Even though Helton has been the face of the franchise for the majority of his career, the Rockies need to find a taker and move on.

Underrated Rocky: Brian Fuentes. The Rockies closer struck out over 11 batters/9 in 2005 and over 10 batters/9 in 2006. He only allowed the league to hit .209/.301/.372 against him last season. One cause for concern is his increasing fly ball rates, so keep an eye on Fuentes this season.

Expectation: While the Rockies have plenty of talent up and down their lineup, the pitching staff is not enough to keep them in contention.

Los Angeles Dodgers

What to Like: Derek Lowe. Lowe arguably had the best season of his career. He had a starter career best 3.99 GB/FB ratio and only allowed the league to hit .262/.310/.360 off of him and only allowed 14 home runs, half of what he allowed in 2005. Granted, Lowe struggles a bit against lefties (10 of 14 homers allowed to lefties, 41 of 55 BB to lefties), yet he still only allows them to slug .396 against him. However, the Dodgers only signed him to a four year deal for $36 million thru 2008 in which Lowe will be 35 and most likely in steady decline. Kudos to the Dodgers for signing a quality starter for only $9 million per season when the going rate now for a pitcher of his caliber is much, much higher.

What Not to Like: With the Dodgers smartly signing older players like Jeff Kent or Nomar Garciaparra to be a stop gap for a couple of seasons, or signing Jason Schmidt to a 3 year deal when he could have gotten more, it is baffling that the Dodgers signed Juan Pierre to a 5-year $45 million dollar deal. Juan Pierre has one valuable asset: his speed. That also happens to be usually one of the skills that leave a player first. Considering Pierre will be 34 in the last year of the deal, his speed will be gone. Once his speed goes, his defense will follow. The only reason he can play centerfield is because he is fast as he has no arm strength to speak of. As a hitter, Pierre has no power (career .377 SLG) and considering he is being paid $9 million per season, you would like his OBP to be a whole lot higher (.343 OBP the last three seasons). Lastly, he is blocking other younger players from developing such as Matt Kemp. So while LA GM Ned Colletti has made a lot of good decisions this off-season, this one was confusing.

Underrated Dodger: Olmedo Saenz. Saenz is a player that, if used correctly, can be very valuable to a team. In the last three years Saenz has hit .276/.341/.509, but is best used as a platoon player who, if played too much, becomes very average. He is skills are maximized as a guy who only plays against lefties as in the last three seasons he has hit .315/.393/.618 in those cases. As long as the Dodgers use him correctly, he will benefit the club (assuming this isn’t the season where he runs out of gas: Saenz is 36).

Expectation: As long as the Dodgers rotation can hold up, and they don’t let the older players keep down the younger and better players, the Dodgers should contend for the top spot in the West.

San Diego Padres

What to Like: Jake Peavy. Yes, he had a down year last year but all of his vital stats stayed consistent which is why a rebound should be expected. He stayed consistent with 2005 in that he averaged over 9 K/9 and allowed the league to hit .242/.303/.412. This isn’t too bad when you taking into account that lefties slugged at a .457 clip against him which needs to drop for him to be considered an ace. Peavy would benefit some by not trying to strike everyone out. It would help save his arm and make him more effective in the process.

What Not to Like: Brian Giles. Where the heck did his power go? Last here he slugged an anemic .397. Yeah, he is playing in Petco Park but on the road last season he only slugged .410. Yeah, he can still get on base but the Padres cannot compete with a corner outfielder slugging sub .400. One would expect to see his numbers look more like 2005 in which he slugged .410 at home but .545 on the road. If he can’t get back to that, paying $10 million each of the next two seasons is pretty steep for a guy that has no power.

Underrated Padre: Scott Linebrink. This stud set-up man is one of the best in the game. In the last three seasons he has registered 221K's and allowed the league to hit only .223/.281/.346 against him in 233 IP. Relievers that strike people out and don’t walk anyone are a valuable commodity.

Expectation: The Padres will compete only if there outfield can muster any power whatsoever. Which, at this point, doesn’t seem likely.

San Francisco Giants

What to Like: Matt Cain. The young Giants hurler is one player that you can point to and say that he is a potential star. Last year Cain struck out 8.45/9 and allowed the league to hit .222/.310/.371 against him. Right now, he is walking too many guys (87 BB in 190 IP), but that can be attributed to his youth (22 years old). He is one young player to watch on the senior circuit that is the Giants.

What Not to Like: Giving $126 million to Barry Zito. The problem isn’t the length, even though seven years is too many for a pitcher, as Zito has never had arm problems. The problem is paying that much for a pitcher with increasing walk rates, decreasing strikeout rates, and is realistically a good #2 or #3 starter. Now the Giants will be stuck with this contract and forced to sign cheaper, older players (which they already have a habit of doing).

Underrated Giant: Ray Durham. Durham enjoyed the best season of his career at age 35. He hit .293/.360/.538, and while he has always been a good OBP guy, Durham has never slugged like he did in 2006 (belted a career high 26 homers). Even if he doesn’t hit with as much power this year, the Giants can still expect a .350 OBP and .450 SLG which are nice numbers to get from your second sacker.

Expectation: The Giants will be looking up at the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers as both those teams have youth that can play.

NL East Preview

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 18:19:00 +0000

Atlanta Braves

The Good: Bullpen. As everyone knows, the Braves revamped bullpen is going to be the strength of this team. Besides the acquisitions of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer has reportedly regained the velocity on his fastball after season-ending shoulder surgery last year. Several young pitchers, who have another year of experience under their belts, will be counted on to round out the pen.

The Bad: Corner Outfield. In positions that usually demand high offensive output, the Braves are likely to fall short from their right and left fielders. In left field, Ryan Langerhans provides no power (.378 SLG in 2006), while right fielder Jeff Francoeur will likely begin swinging at pickoff throws to first (.293 OBP in 2006, and hasn’t taken a single walk in 56 Spring Training ABs). Matt Diaz will help some in both categories, but it remains to be seen whether or not his 2006 was legit, or just an average-propped anomaly.

The Question: Right Side of the Infield. After non-tendering Marcus Giles and trading Adam LaRoche, the Braves have two inexperienced players at first and second base. After coming back from Tommy John, Kelly Johnson has reportedly made huge strides defensively at second by working with Glenn Hubbard over the offseason, and will provide patience and another left-handed bat at the plate. Scott Thorman will be called on to takeover first, and will try to duplicate the year he was having in Richmond prior to being called up in last season (.296/.360/.508). Adding to first will be Craig Wilson who, if healthy, will provide additional power.

Florida Marlins

The Good: Left Side of the Infield. At SS, 2006 ROY Hanley Ramirez put together a great season after coming over from Boston, posting a .292/.353/.480 line with 46 doubles (look for a few of those to turn into HR in 2007, barring injury). Equally as impressive, 3B Miguel Cabrera hit .311/.384/.535. Both are only 23 years old.

The Bad: Outfield. Other than Josh Willingham, no Marlins outfielder has slugged over .412 in his career (Willingham’s SLG of .482 is in only 550 career ABs). Admittedly, these are very small sample sizes and these players are still young, so there is time to turn around. Alex Sanchez appears to be number one on the depth chart for the CF job. His OBP is usually about 30 points higher that his AVG…the 30 will more than likely hit for a decent average and be a disaster in every other offensive category.

The Question: Age. Florida is the youngest team in baseball by a full year, and no one on their pitching staff is over the age of 28. Although veterans Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis can be counted on, the Marlins still don’t know exactly what they have with much of their roster.

New York Mets:

The Good: Offense. The Mets, on paper, have potentially the best offense in all of the National League. They further upgraded in the offseason by adding 40 year old OF Moises Alou who, despite his age, is still a very productive hitter (.301/.352/.571 in 345 ABs last season). Carlos Delgado and David Wright are going to produce at first and third (both have ISO’s over .200), and Carlos Beltran bounced back nicely from a tough 2005. The biggest jump last season, however, was in Jose Reyes. From ’05 to ’06, Reyes doubled his walk rate and hit 12 more homeruns in 50 fewer ABs. Remember, he’s only 23, so more improvement (especially in walks) is likely.

The Bad: Starting Rotation. After Tom Glavine, the Mets rotation has the potential to be very poor. Orlando Hernandez has been diagnosed with neck arthritis and has only pitched 200 innings once in his career (1999), John Maine gave up 15 HR in only 90 IP (although he did improve on his K/9 IP and K/BB rates), and Oliver Perez has regressed in pretty much every way possible since his 2004 season (although reports are he’s looked good in Spring Training). In addition, Pedro Martinez is attempting return from rotator cuff surgery (second half of the season). Compounding all of this is the age issue. With Glavine (40), Martinez (35), and Hernandez (37), you have to wonder how these three will bounce back from current and potential injuries.

The Question: Right Field. Shawn Green is pretty much a corpse against lefties (.242/.316/.409), and hasn’t slugged over .500 since his 2002 season with LA. The question here will be potential emergence of Lastings Milledge. Milledge, turning 22 in April, has torn through minors and even saw a little time with the big club last season (185 plate appearances). If his improved patience reflected in 2006 at AAA Norfolk carries over into this season, Green could be relegated to PH duty sooner rather than later.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Good: Right Side of the Infield. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard anchor what is probably the best right infield in the National League, if not all of the Majors. Over the past three seasons, Utley has hit .294/.365/.521, even slugging a notable .497 away from the cozy Citizen’s Bank Park. To his left, Ryan Howard is a monster. In 2006, he posted an obscene .346 ISO, and put up an impressive .279/.364/.558 line against left handed pitchers.

The Bad: Catcher. By posting an OPS of .708 in 2006, Rod Barajas gets to join Brian Schneider, Yadier Molina, and Brad Ausmus in the NL’s version of the “Why the hell are you guys starting?” club. Barajas enjoyed an increase in power in 2005 that was reflected in lowering his AB/HR to 19.5, which was far lower than any other time in his career. However, his 2006 line of .256/.298/.410 is remarkably close to his career averages of .240/.282/.410, and likely presents a good idea of what to expect from him in the future.

The Question: Freddy Garcia. It remains to be seen if Garcia can bounce back from a disappointing 2006 season, or if it was a sign of the beginning of his decline. 2006 saw his GB/FB ratio drop to 1.06 (the second lowest of his career), and the league slug a career-high .444 (40 points higher than is career average). Considering that he’ll only be 31 in June and is moving from the AL to the NL, Garcia should give the Phils 200+ solid innings this year.

Washington Nationals

The Good: Corner Infield. 22 year old 3B Ryan Zimmerman had an impressive rookie campaign last season, hitting .287/.357/.479. Even more impressive was the fact that he slugged .516 at pitcher-friendly RFK (vs. .424 on the road). Considering that he totaled 47 doubles in his age 21 season, it’s likely that his HRs will increase from the 20 that he hit last year. Across the diamond, 1B Nick Johnson has a wide array of offensive skills as well. Aside from a strong walk rate (.146 BB/PA), Johnson possesses good power, slugging .520 in 2006 (his first season with over 500 ABs). Therein lies the problem. In five full seasons, Johnson has had a flurry of injuries, including a broken leg when he collided with RF Austin Kearns. He reportedly ran outside last week, but there is no word on when he may return.

The Bad: Pitching. The Nats gave up an NL high 872 runs last season, had the second lowest strike out total, had the highest ERA (5.03), tied for the least number of complete games (1), had the least number of shutouts (3), gave up the second highest OPS against the league (.796)…do I need to go on? They even committed more balks (10) than any other NL team, and they don’t appear to be any better in ’07. Aside from Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch (assuming that is K/9 IP spike last season wasn’t a fluke), this staff is terrible.

The Question: Nationals Stadium. Will it be ready on time? What exactly will it look like? In the nation’s capital, questions regarding the progress of the stadium will likely be the most interesting discussion points surrounding this team.

The East is more than likely going to be a three team race this year, as the Braves, Phillies, and Mets are above the Marlins and light years above the Nationals. Maybe it’s just me wanting a return to normalcy, but I think that Braves will take it by the slimmest of margins. Hudson, by all accounts, has looked great this spring, you know what you’re going to get from Smoltz, and I’m betting that Chuck James will slide by (even with his extreme flyball tendencies) for one more season. With Andruw Jones likely gone, Chipper and Smoltz (if he’s back for another season) growing another year older, and the bulk of Hudson’s back-loaded deal kicking in, 2008 looks to be pretty rough for Atlanta. They’d better take advantage of this season.

NL Central Preview

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 16:13:00 +0000

Chicago Cubs

What to Like: Carlos Zambrano. Very few teams can actually say that they have a true ace that is a shut down pitcher who you can count on to deliver quality. In 2006 Big Z increased his K/9 to 8.83 which is a positive but his increasing walk totals and his decreasing GB/FB ratio is a small cause of concern.

What Not to Like: Signing Jason Marquis to a 3 year $21 million deal. What from his 2006 season was there to like? The answer is nothing, as hitters battered around Marquis to the tune of .289/.364/.509. Marquis was especially charitable with runners on base as he allowed the league to hit .311/.385/.567. Yeah, I would say those numbers are worth $21 million.

Underrated Cub: Matt Murton enjoyed a fairly productive 2006 season. As one of the only Cubs who actually walks (Cubs team OBP of .319 was last in the National League), Murton hit a respectable .297/.365/.444 after a slow first half (.278/.344/.379).

Expectation: As the Cubs spent gobs of money in the off-season, overpaying for Soriano, DeRosa, Floyd and Marquis they will still not see the results they are looking for as they will not have the pitching to survive.

Cincinnati Reds

What to Like: Locking up Aaron Harang to a modest 4 year deal for $36.5 million. Considering people like Jason Marquis and Adam Eaton are stealing $7 million and $8 million per year respectively the Reds deal is a bargain. In 2006 Harang increased his K/9 by nearly 1.5 up to 8.30/9. Harang also doesn’t walk people as he strikes out nearly 4 times as many as he walks. The league slugs a little higher against him that you would like at .433 in 2006 but that can be attributed to pitching in the Great American Small Park as he gave up 20 of his 28 homers there. At worst, Harang will be 32 when the deal is up and the Reds will get his prime years and can count on an above league average starter for over 30 starts per season. It could be a lot worse.

What Not to Like: The rest of the rotation. After Harang and Bronson Arroyo, it is mostly scrap. Kirk Saarloos was picked up from Oakland and should be serviceable which is nice if he is your fifth starter, but when he joins Kyle Lohse, Elizardo Ramirez ,Eric Milton and whatever other journeymen is fighting for a spot to round out the rotation it doesn’t bode well. All those guys are fifth starters if that. So when you have a #2 and a #3 at the front of the rotation followed by spare parts, there figures to be a lot of long nights in Cincinnati.

Underrated Red: The catching tandem of David Ross and Javier Valentin. When you can have two catchers that both slug above .400, and one hit’s LH while the other RH, you got a good thing going (especially with catchers like Brad Ausmus and Yadi Molina getting full time gigs). Now I don’t expect Ross to hit .255/.353/.579 again but for his career he has a .231/.301/.469 line which isn’t too shabby if he is only hitting lefties in which he slugged an absurd .829 in 76 AB’s. Valentin against righties slugged .476 and as long as Jerry Narron doesn’t let him hit from the right side they should be fine as in the last 3 seasons Valentin has hit righties at a .286/.340/.501 clip. As long as the Reds monitor the at bats of both this should be something good. The Reds also get bonus points here for finally dropping the dead weight that is Jason LaRue.

Expectation: As pitching is king, the Reds will probably not hang on the whole season. However, this is a winnable division for nearly everyone in it, so if the Reds can work out the back end of the rotation, they have a chance.

Houston Astros

What to Like: Lance Berkman. As good a hitter as he his, he kind of gets overlooked by the casual baseball observer. Last year Berkman hit .315/.420/.621 with 45 homers and an Iso SLG. of .306. More importantly, Berkman does it on the road as well. In the last three seasons Berkman has hit .303/.417/.578 away from Minute Maid. As a switch hitter, he generates significantly more power from the left side but is able to get on base fairly well still from the right as in the last three seasons Berkman sports a .396 OBP. As long as that continues, he will still be productive from the right side. Berkman is 31 now and should have 2 or 3 more legit years left. For Houston’s sake, let’s hope so as he still has 4 more seasons on the 6-year $85 million deal he signed in 2005.

What Not to Like: The fact that Brad Ausmus is still a full-timer. Shouldn’t we be at the stage where Ausmus is a bench coach being groomed for a manager’s position? I mean how long can you have someone who rakes at a .230/.308/.285 clip play in 139 games? He doesn’t throw out potential base stealers (22% last year) like he used to. Combine him and Adam Everett (.239/.290/.352) and the pitcher at the bottom of the order and you have three automatic outs for the most part. Ausmus needs to be replaced with Humberto Quintero who in AAA last year hit a respectable .298/..352/.425. Now his OBP is tied heavily with his batting average but even when that drops, he will still be more productive than Ausmus can dream of being. Now I know Ausmus calls a good game, but that cannot make up for his inactivity at the plate.

Underrated Astro: Mike Lamb. If the Astros correctly monitor his AB’s and he continues to be a platoon player that only hits lefties, he will continue to produce at the .286/.344/.478 clip that he has produced at the last three seasons in roughly 300 AB’s a year. It is always nice to have that type of power coming off your bench when he can play third and first respectably and give Berkman and Ensberg days off every now and then.

Expectation: Once again, with the division wide open the Astros have an opportunity. However, after Roy Oswalt, Jason Jennings and Woody Williams, there is uncertainty in the rotation. If a combination of Matt Albers, Fernando Nieve, or Chris Sampson can emerge as a quality starter in the 4th and 5th slots, the Astros could be in good shape. However, if they are relying on Wandy Rodriquez then they are in trouble as he is terrible and should not even be considered for the 4th slot. With Brad Lidge hopefully over his control issues, (he still led the league in K/9), the Astros have a solid bullpen with Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler returning. The lineup should be much better as well with Morgan Ensberg back healthy and with the addition of Carlos Lee albeit an overpaid Carlos Lee. We will have to wait and see on whether the 2007 Astros are good enough for Roger Clemens to want to play for.

Milwaukee Brewers

What to Like: Bill Hall’s improvement. In the last three seasons, Hall’s OBP and SLG have improved and he finished 2006 with a line of .270/.345/.550. He also had an outstanding Iso SLG of .283. Now with Hall moving full-time to center field rather than the rover that he has played for most of his career, he will immediately become one of the better hitting center fielders in the game assuming his numbers stay relatively the same. With a new four year $24 million deal, lets hope that does happen.

What Not to Like: Ben Sheets’ health. The last two seasons Sheets has only pitched 262 innings and he is being paid to pitch 230 innings per season. Armed with one of the best curveballs in the league and a good fastball, Sheets in his last full season in 2004 averaged 10.03 K/9 and walked just 32 in 237 innings. If Sheets remains healthy the entire season he will be poised for a big year and as he is just 28, maybe more years to come. However, when back problems are the issue, they usually never go away completely.

Underrated Brewer: Tony Graffanino. There really aren’t a lot of Brewers that are underrated. They are mostly overrated or not rated at all, but Graffanino is underrated in that he can play multiple positions in the infield, can get on base, and is a passable defender. The last three years Graffanino has put up a .283/.343/.409 line which could be a lot worse. Considering JJ Hardy will eventually get injured this year, Graffanino will be a valuable replacement.

Expectation: The Brewers will most likely finish in the middle of the division because their outfield play is fairly weak with an aged Jenkins, unproven Laynce Nix and Corey Hart, overrated Kevin Mench and their pitching staff even with a healthy Sheets, is not strong. Chris Capuano and Jeff Suppan aren’t enough to get them over the top.

Pittsburgh Pirates

What to Like: Jason Bay. Bay has weathered the losing in Pittsburgh to a tune of .292/.389/.547 the last three seasons. Solid numbers for a guy that knows each spring that his season will be over before the All Star Break. In that same span he has really done it on the road slugging .579 while only slugging .515 at home. Like Brian Giles before him, all his goods years will be behind him when he finally gets released from Bucs Prison.

What Not to Like: The direction of the Pirates front office. They haven’t done a good job of drafting front line players that can help the organization win, and then they waste time by signing older veteran players that will not help the organization win such as Sean Casey and Jeromy Burnitz, yet they get rid of cheap effective players like Craig Wilson. Until their organization has a plan in place, their current state of losing will continue.

Underrated Pirate: Ronny Paulino. This 25-year-old catcher had a solid last season in relative anonymity. He hit a respectable .310/.361/.394 while throwing out 36% of would be base stealers. He had solid minor league numbers as well. His OBP is tied to his batting average pretty heavily but has shown a penchant for taking some walks. Look at it this way: any production he gives will still be better than what the Astros and Cardinals will be getting this year.

Expectation: The Pirates will most likely finish last in the division because of there undecided direction, poor lineup and poor pitching staff.

St. Louis Cardinals

What to Like: Of course Albert Pujols is a thing to like. However, we are going to go with Chris Carpenter. Carp gives the Cardinals an ace that every team is not as fortunate to have. The last three seasons, Carp has averaged a solid 7 K/9 and has struck out batters four times more than he has walked them. In the last three seasons opposing batters have only hit .236/.278/.367 against him as well. Considering he is 31, signing him to a 5 year $65 million deal might not have been the wisest move by the Cardinals, but if they get 3 years of production like the last three, it would have been worth it.

What Not to Like: The corner outfield. Currently, the Cards have Juan Encarnacion, So Taguchi, Chris Duncan, John Rodriguez, and Preston Wilson fighting for the corner outfield positions with Edmonds playing center if he is healthy to start the year. Right now it looks like Duncan could be just a platoon player as he doesn’t hit lefties well (.170/.220/.319) in only 47 AB’s but hasn’t really been given the chance yet. And if anyone watched the 2006 playoffs, he doesn’t really have great instincts or skills for that matter in the outfield. John Rodriguez has been a journeyman outfielder most of his career but has found a nice home in St. Louis where he has shown ability to get on base a little bit. Only playing time will show if he is more than a part-time player. Preston Wilson is on the way out of the game with his strike zone judgment and speed gone. The only thing keeping him around is that people recognize his name and he can still hit lefties a little bit (.292/.362/.496 in 2006). So Taguchi is nothing more than a spare part who use has run its course. The Cardinals are paying Juan Encarnacion $10 million for the next two seasons to not get on base and to not slug (.268/.322/.432 the last three seasons). So if Tony La Russa really is a baseball genius like people think he is, he will find away to platoon the hell out of these guys.

Underrated Cardinal: Dave Duncan. The Cardinals pitching coach has been fairly underrated in his ability to help turnaround fallen pitchers or pitchers found on the scrap heap. He was able to help turn Jason Marquis into an effective pitcher for a couple of years, to help Jeff Weaver turn his season around and pitch the clinching game in the World Series, and help turn Chris Carpenter into one of the best pitchers in the league. Taking pitchers on the cheap and turning them into league average or above league average pitchers is a very valuable commodity. Especially with the rising salaries and overpaying of marginal talent. Duncan also is unique in that he is one of the few pitching coaches that aren’t a former pitcher. Duncan was a catcher.

Expectation: Due to the brilliance of Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter, The Red Birds will contend in this division every year. And if this is a year where Rolen can stay healthy and Jim Edmonds can contribute, this year won’t be any different.

Letting Go of a Sunk Cost

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 19:56:00 +0000

According to the Kansas City Royals’ website, their opening day starting right fielder will be Reggie Sanders, which is fine…for now. Sanders isn’t taking time away from Emil Brown or David DeJesus (two better players), Joey Gathright would provide about as much power as skipper Buddy Bell, and Shane Costa isn’t ready yet (if he ever will be).

The problem will arise when Alex Gordon embarrasses AAA pitching and moves up to claim the job at third base (if he hasn't already on opening day). Assuming that Mark Teahen hits anything like he did last year, and is currently hitting this spring, he will inevitably move to the outfield. When this occurs, one of the three current outfield starters will be displaced. DeJesus plays center field, and there’s no way that Teahen could be asked to step in there, so that leaves Sanders and Brown. Although it should be Sanders, my bet is that Brown will be relegated to the bench.

Why? Because Sanders is still owed several million dollars.

We’ve all heard arguments that a team didn’t sign a player to X amount of dollars to be sitting on the bench. This flawed thinking ignores that fact that the money owed to a certain player is completely irrelevant when considering playing time. That salary is a sunk cost, or a cost that has been incurred in the past and will never be recovered. Often times, sitting on the bench is exactly what these players should be doing.

An example could be purchasing a movie ticket only to find out halfway through the picture that the movie is terrible . While deciding on whether or not to leave, you have a friend point out that you’ve already spent $8 on the ticket, so you might as well sit through it. That $8 is a sunk cost, as the theater will not reward you your money back at the end of the show for enduring the horrible Ashton Kutcher movie you just saw. You now have two choices: lose $8 and leave (to salvage the rest of the evening), or lose $8 and another hour of your life watching something that isn’t entertaining. Notice that either way, you lose $8.

How does this relate to Sanders? Before last season he signed a two-year, $10MM deal with the Royals which, upon signing, should have become irrelevant when making on field decisions. No matter what, the Royals are on the hook for $5MM to Sanders this season, so why would you want to further hurt your team by allowing him to start over better players? It should be noted, however, that this scenario is operating under a couple of assumptions:

Sanders (or any player) does not perform at a suitable level when compared to other players available. Basically, if the opportunity cost of using your “sunk cost player” is that a more valuable player is not utilized.
The team is not trying to flip this player before the deadline. Some of these players could pale in comparison to other players, but may still be useful. It could prove to be beneficial for a team that will not make the playoffs (like the Royals) to keep a player in the lineup if he can be swapped for anything that may be of future use. Obviously, this becomes a moot point if the player would not provide value to any team.

The last assumption is a particularly fine line with Sanders since he is in the last year of his contract. If he has not yet suffered his inevitable once-a-year injury and is hitting for decent power, he could be good trade bait (never underestimate how much a GM will pay for a name they’ve heard) for a team wanting to more or less rent him for a second half push. However, if Sanders is on his way to duplicating last season’s .246/.304/.425 fiasco (as we are assuming he will be for the sake of this argument), he should quickly find himself on the bench. I’m not trying to pick on the Royals here, either, as I think that the Angels (Gary Mathews, Jr.), Cubs (Alfonso Soriano, Jason Marquis), and Dodgers (Juan Pierre) will all face similar decisions as some of their new acquisitions get further into their deals. Plus, it’s all but inevitable the Brian Sabean will immediately sign Sanders to a 10 year deal once this season is complete.

No matter what the end decision with Sanders is, the Royals should have learned that it isn’t wise to commit $10MM over two years to an injury-riddled 38 year old…just like you learned in our example that it isn’t wise to commit $8 and 2 hours to anything involving Ashton Kutcher. Now the only question that remains is whether or not teams be willing to let go of a sunk cost.

Just How Bad Was Jeff Francoeur Last Year?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 17 Mar 2007 18:29:00 +0000

If you asked Braves manager Bobby Cox what he thought of Jeff Francoeur's 2006 season he would probably say something about Frenchie being a gamer, a superb right fielder, and a guy that drove in over 100 RBI. Those reasons must be why Cox allowed Francoeur to step into the box a team leading 686 times. Obviously, part of that is due to his ability to stay healthy, but a lot of it falls on the false hope that Francoeur provides.

Francoeur obviously has great talent. He has fantastic throwing arm, he can run, he can hit with power and he can sometimes hit pitches hard that he has no business hitting that hard, let alone swinging at. That is where Francoeur becomes a liability.

Of the 686 plate appearances that Frenchie had in 2006, only 17 resulted in him taking four balls that weren't intentional. He stepped into the batters box 686 times and only had 17 unintentional walks! Are you kidding me?

Now I know that Frenchie thinks that as long as he is sporting a .300 OBP then he is in good shape but c'mon now Jeff. Last year Frenchie hit .260/.293/.449. Now those are some numbers less than to be desired. Obviously his OBP is terrible but his slugging percentage is not all that great and his iso power percentage is only .189, and considering he is playing a corner outfield position, both of those numbers should be higher. So the question is why is he out there? He doesn't get on base or walk which saps some his power potential because he is always swinging his way out of favorable counts.

Of the twenty nine home runs that Francoeur hit in 2006, 10 came on the first pitch of the plate appearance and 10 came when he was ahead in the count. Frenchie should never get a pitch to hit leading off his plate appearance.

And for some reason, people like to compare Frenchie with Vlad Guerrero because of his lack of patience at the plate and his tendency to swing at any pitch. This comparison is an insult to Vladdy. Look at a comparison of their stats below:

By comparing their stats, it is apparent that in theory, Vladdy and Frenchie have the same approach at the plate, swing often. However, by also looking at their stats, it is easy to one glaring difference. Guerrero is a better hitter in every facet. So when people compare Francoeur to Guerrero they are ignoring how unique and how special Guerrero is as a hitter. So Francoeur needs to realize that his style only works for one person: Vladimir Guerrero.

Not only does Francoeur's lack of patience hurt his team when he comes up with men on base but it hurts them also when he leads off an inning. In 2006, when leading off an inning, Francoeur hit in 149 plate appearances at a .250/.274/.424 clip. In comparison when Vladdy led off an inning in 2006 in 141 plate appearances he hit at a .355/.369/.572 clip. So basically the Braves only get two outs when Francoeur leads off an inning. And when Frenchie comes up with two outs he only hits .236/.282/.491 while Guerrero hits .361/.447/.543. So it is either all or nothing for Francoeur, and the all doesn't really show up that much.

So while he may have hit 29 bombs and drove in over 100 RBI he was really not productive for the Braves as he wasn't able to start a lot of rallies by getting on base, or to get anything started for his team when there were two outs. So until Francoeur is able to differentiate balls from strikes he will continue to be a sub par player who can't hit away from Turner Field(.217/.248/.369). Let's just hope that if he doesn't improve, that he won't be getting 686 plate appearances.

Defending A-Rod

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Thu, 15 Mar 2007 12:24:00 +0000

I understand the desire to root against Alex Rodriguez. He seems extremely vain, cares way too much about what people think, and seriously insulted all of our intelligence in 2001 when signing his $252MM/10 year contract with the Rangers by insisting that he just wanted to win (the Mariners finished 20 games ahead of Texas in 2000, and 43 ahead of them in 2001). To make matters worse, after only three years with the Rangers, he began complaining about how going to the ballpark wasn’t fun anymore (who’s tying up the payroll?) and was able to sulk his way over to the Yankees.

I get it…and, yes, it is annoying.

But here’s what I find even more annoying than a 31 year old athlete that still dyes his hair: arbitrary arguments that Rodriguez is not a premier player and doesn’t “come through in clutch situations”. Even more baffling is the fact that many of these accusations come from Yankee fans. So I’ve decided (and I know, this is crazy) to look at the actual performances of A-Rod as compared to New York’s golden boy, Derek Jeter. Yankee, and other baseball fans, all have the same arguments…

‘A-Rod can’t handle the pressure here, he’s not a real Yankee…’

I’m not exactly sure what makes Jeter a “real Yankee”, but excludes A-Rod from this club…could it be the fist pumping? At any rate, we’ll ignore that for now. Over his three seasons with New York, Rodriguez has put up a line of .299/.396/.549 to Jeter’s .315/.386/.468 over the same time period. Both put up solid numbers, and Jeter does win the battle over AVG (the most insignificant of the three), but A-Rod has slugged over 80 points higher during these three seasons.

‘...yeah, but he can’t handle New York…’

Actually, he has, slugging 54 points higher at home than he has on the road (.576 vs. .522). Jeter fares quite well in the House that Ruth built as well, posting a SLG of .517. Impressive, but his power shrinks considerably on the road to the tune of .422. Again, these stats cover the past three seasons.

‘...ok fine, he can hit…but he still chokes under pressure…’

In reality, if we look at past performances in many different situations, Rodriguez fares just as well (if not better) that Jeter over this three year period. The chart below breaks this out (note RISP stands for Runners in Scoring Position):

In most cases, Jeter still has a higher average and even maintains a higher OBP in a couple of scenarios (albeit by an insignificant margin), but he doesn’t come close to matching Rodriguez’s power numbers. In fact, the closest his SLG comes is with RISP and 2 outs (25 points below), and is not within 50 points of A-Rod beyond that.

‘…but I’m talking about real pressure…the playoffs...’

Before addressing this most ludicrous of arguments, it should be noted that A-Rod has only 79 post season ABs since joining the Yankees. To put this in perspective, that’s roughly 4% of his complete three year, regular season total with the Yanks of 1,778 ABs.

Did he have a bad postseason series last year? Absolutely, but that was in only 14 ABs, a phenomenally insignificant sample size. However, as long as we’re throwing around small examples in “clutch” situations, let’s take a look at the 2004 ALCS versus the Red Sox. In this series, Rodriguez had 31 ABs (the most he’s had in any one playoff series) and hit .258/.378/.516. Please, ignore the average here…those are great on base and power numbers. How did Jeter fare during this series? In 30 ABs, he hit .200/.333/.233. I’m not using this as proof that Jeter isn’t as “clutch” as A-Rod, nor am I suggesting that Jeter isn’t a premier player (he certainly is). I’m simply making the point that you can’t make broad generalities with such a small fragment of data when a body of past performance paints such a drastically different picture.

‘…he should be way better, we’re paying him more…’

Yes and no. While Jeter will be making $20MM to Rodriguez’s $27MM this season, the Yankees are not paying him all of that money. When you take into account the money that Ranger’s owner Tom Hicks is donating to the A-Rod fund, the Yankees are essentially paying the two the same. Rodriguez’s check will be bigger, but if the money making the difference isn’t coming from New York, this argument from Yankee fans is irrelevant.

‘…but Jeter has all of those intangibles…’

I guess that’s true. Jeter did post 100 happy-fun units last season, and A-Rod only had 82. Honestly, how does one even discuss this? How do you measure intangibles? How do you know that Jeter has more of them? Do you measure them in something like sacrifice flies (by the way, A-Rod has 65 in his career [12 to go ahead, 9 to tie] to Jeter’s 37 [8 to go ahead, 4 to tie])?

Again, this is not trying to prove that Jeter is a bad player, because he clearly isn’t. But having a theory that A-Rod isn’t the player that Jeter is when it really counts doesn’t mean anything….especially when it's based on a personal bias and performances tell a different story.

Lack of Commitment Could Benefit Some Teams

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 19:09:00 +0000

With the offseason rash of signing players to deals that will take them well beyond their prime (how do you think JD Drew’s knees will hold up 5 years from now?), there were several teams that went a smarter route and locked in quality players for only one season...of course, many of these teams did a little of both.

These players are not marquee names, and many of them are past their primes as well, but by committing to just one year these teams are free to cut ties at the end of the season (remember, what happened last season isn't necessarily what will happen this season). While they more than likely won’t be carrying the team at any point in the season, they provide solid play at a good price.

The players…

Kenny Lofton, Rangers ($6MM) – The most expensive player on this list, Lofton provides the Rangers with a true leadoff hitter. Although he certainly isn’t at the same level that he once was, he still stole 32 bases last season (86% success rate) and reached base at a .360 clip. Aside from the Young extension, the Rangers actually had a pretty good offseason, as they wisely let Mark DeRosa, Carlos Lee, Rod Barajas, Adam Eaton, and Gary Matthews walk. This one year deal lets Texas go after next year’s free agent class led by Andruw Jones (Tom Hicks, Scott Boras, and a big name player…has to scare you if you’re a Texas fan).

Marcus Giles, Padres ($3.2MM) – Giles had a rough year last season, hitting only .262/.341/.387, although he did have a strong July and August. The days of .526 slugging enjoyed in 2003 are probably gone, especially since he will be playing home games in spacious PETCO, but Giles is still a much improved defender with good years left in him. Just as Gary Matthews is unlikely to put together another campaign similar to 2006, Giles will probably not melt down two years in a row.

Ryan Klesko, Giants ($1.75MM) – Klesko is not the player he used to be. He hasn’t slugged .500 in the past four seasons, and was out all of last season with shoulder surgery. However, Klesko can still get on base, posting a .358 OBP in 2005 and a .399 OBP in 2004. If nothing else, he will make a useful platoon against righties, as he hit .271/.389/.457 against right-handers from 2004 though ’05. Besides, Klesko will fit right in with Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Mark Sweeney, and Barry Bonds as they take advantage of early bird specials across the Bay Area and fight the younger players to keep the music in the clubhouse down.

Mark Loretta, Astros ($2.5MM) – Loretta has been brought in to supplement Biggio as he goes for the most magical of hits…#3,000. He will likely move on after the season, as Burke will take over at 2B and Loretta is limited to pretty much that position. Having said that, worse stop-gaps could be found. Loretta holds a career OBP of .363 (although that dipped last season to .345) and has increasing walk rates (again, barring last year). As a bonus, while with Milwaukee in 2001, Loretta pitched an inning and struck out two of the 5 batters he faced…so that’s always good to fall back on should Lidge falter.

Trot Nixon, Indians ($3MM) – The issue for Nixon is the same every year: injuries. He can still hit, especially against right handed pitching, as he has put up a .297/.378/.471 line against them in the past three seasons. Helping to lighten the load, the Indians are asking Nixon to platoon with Casey Blake, who has slugged .500 against lefties over the past three years, and should be pleased with the result if he can stay healthy.

Mark Redman, Braves ($750k if on opening day roster, $500k incentive-based) –Actually a league average pitcher that probably won’t make very much of a difference after being signed to replace the injured Mike Hampton. Redman’s real value will come when he is traded to the Mariners for JJ Putz (assuming that Bill Bavasi is still the Seattle GM).

By limiting their financial obligations and risk to one season, these teams have found potential bargains in short-term replacements…even if it is just until they see a shiny new player they just have to have this next offseason.

Hope Springs Eternal (or at least until July)

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 12:43:00 +0000

Now is the time of year for unparalleled (and often unfounded) optimism. Fans anxiously check Spring Training box scores and stats in order to justify their outlook for this season (Willie Bloomquist is hitting .450!). Forgetting about these preseason games, since teams are more concerned with the process rather than the outcome (not to mention the fact that many players in camp will not grace big league parks until September call-ups, if at all), how long should these up-beat attitudes last?

To make the picture a bit clearer, we can look at the month-by-month standings within each division over the past five seasons. With the 6 divisions across both leagues, this will give us 30 samples for each month. Below are the percentages in which a team that has led at the end of each respective month went on to win the division:

Quick note: obviously, these numbers are averages and a team’s chances would need to be adjusted based on games behind, new acquisitions, injuries, etc.

April – 46.67%
May – 60%
June – 66.67%
July – 80%
August – 80%

Percentages progress as you would expect, although I do think it’s interesting that ~47% of division leaders in April were on top at the end of the year, considering that only about 25 of the total 162 games have been played at that point. The most significant jump comes somewhere in the month of July, where the month end winners have remained in first 80% of the time when October rolls around (100% in the NL). In fact, the only team during these past five years that has come back to win the division after trailing by more than 5 games at the end of July is Minnesota this past season (8.5 games).

Besides the obvious argument that these percentages get higher due to fewer games remaining to upset the order (after all, there are usually about 55 remaining, plenty of time to make up ground), this is more likely due to players (and teams) becoming what they really are.

Case in point? The Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati began July last year dead even with the St. Louis Cardinals on top of the NL Central, and while they finished only 3.5 games back at year end (due mainly to a weak division), their numbers tell more of a story. Cincinnati scored 5 runs per game before the All Star break, but dropped to only 4.1 runs/game afterwards (their team SLG also plummeted from .451 pre All Star to .409 post). Although their ERA did improve by about .60, it wasn’t enough to overcome the decline in their offensive numbers. In addition to these types of declines, better teams getting off to a slow start will generally increase their performances to expected levels.

Basically, the Mark DeRosa’s of the world probably won’t maintain their first half numbers of .332/.384/.494 (he fell to .265/.333/.423 in the last half), just as Richie Sexon will improve from his .218/.288/.418 line (.322/.399/.613 in the second half).

So feel free to dream of what could be during the first few months of the season, because come July, it’ll be time to face reality.

Biggio and 3,000

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 11 Mar 2007 00:34:00 +0000

Craig Biggio will begin this season 70 hits shy of 3,000 for his career. Over his likely Hall of Fame career, Biggio has been all that you could ever ask for in a player. He could hit for power (career .436 SLG), get on base (career .367 OBP), play great defense and run. However, those days are gone, and now Bidge is playing to get his 3,000th hit.

The problem will be when Biggio struggles this season, how long will Garner let him play everyday? Evidence already shows that he should not be playing everyday. In the second half of 2006 Biggio hit for an embarrassing .201/.251/.397 and in the second half of 2005 he hit just .237 with a .294 OBP. So you can expect similar numbers in the second half this year as well.

However, his biggest problem now is when he is away from the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park. On the road last season, Biggio, in 236 AB's hit just a paltry .178/.253/.288. Yeah, he is a class act and a Houston icon, but if he hits like that this season he will have to be relegated to the bench because he will be a detriment to the ball club if he plays.

The problem begins with the number 3,000. It is one of those numbers that has been ingrained into the minds of Hall of Fame voters and is looked at as a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Biggio doesn't need 3,000 hits to validate his Hall of Fame candidacy.

The next problem is that he has to be given the starting gig to start the season because of his value to the franchise, the city of Houston and to the Houston fan base. There would be an uproar if Biggio wasn't given an opportunity to go after 3,000 hits in Houston. And it is understandable because the Astros are still selling entertainment and are trying to make money. To do that, Biggio has to be a part of it.

The solution to this dilemma is to start the season with Biggio the starter at 2B, where he shouldn't play day games after night games (which he has been doing for the last 3 years now anyway). He should play mostly during home games where in 2006 he hit .296/.346/.522 with 15 of his 21 homers. Once he gets hit 70, if he is struggling he needs to be replaced. Hopefully Bidge would take himself out if he hit like he did on the road and in the 2nd half last year anyway.

Breaking Down Braves New Pen

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 14:01:00 +0000

A year after converting only 57% of their save opportunities (NL worst) with a carousel of 18 relievers, the Braves have a revamped bullpen. Although some of the blown saves were surely the result of bad luck, it should be noted that isolating stats solely based on the bullpen and hitters faced yields a strikeout rate of only 6.73 K/9IP (14th out of the 16 NL teams) and a K/BB rate of 1.54 (15th in the NL)…not good.

Considering those stats and a starting rotation consisting of John Smoltz (39 years old), Tim Hudson (recurring oblique issues), Mike Hampton (coming back from Tommy John surgery and now having to deal with a strained/torn oblique), Chuck James, and Kyle Davies (both of whom are unproven), the Braves desperately needed to address this issue. Below is a breakdown of the improvements made.

Bob Wickman – The Braves actually acquired Wickman during last season in exchange of minor league catcher Max Ramirez, a good move considering that they already had catchers Brian McCann, Brayan Pena, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Wickman, who was resigned this offseason, will start the year as a closer, which is good since he is not the best pitcher in this bullpen. Bringing even a league average pitcher in to throw one inning, while already having the lead, will result in converting the save more times than not. I’m certainly not the first person to make this point, but it seems to get lost too often when bullpens are discussed. Don’t you want your best pitcher coming during the 7th inning with runners in scoring position and your starter laboring?

Having said that, Wickman should do a fine job in this role. Opposing hitters have slugged only .371 against him over the course of this career (with his one hiccup coming in 2004 when the league slugged .462). Additionally, he keeps the ball on the ground, owning a career GB/FB ratio of 2.31 (although it’s been slightly lower in the past few seasons), and has kept his HR allowed to single digits every year since 1996. You would like to see a higher strikeout rate, but barring a drastic increase in walks (which is unlikely), Wickman shouldn’t have many issues.

Mike Gonzalez – Acquired from the Pirates in the LaRoche deal, left-handed Gonzalez has dominant stuff. In each of his three seasons (ignoring the 8 innings he threw in 2003) he has racked up more than 10 strikeouts per 9IP and never allowed the league to slug even .290 against him. Gonzalez has shown slight groundball tendencies (1.2 GB/FB for his career) and has remarkable HR/9IP rate of only .52. Certainly more that a lefty specialist, he will be one of the guys that counted on to bridge the gap to Wickman in the 9th.

Rafael Soriano – Atlanta obtained Soriano from Seattle for left-handed starter Horacio Ramirez. A quick aside here: Ramirez’s rookie season of 2003 is the perfect example of why W-L records should not be taken into consideration. In that year, Ramirez went 12-4 in 29 starts. In his 12 wins, the Braves scored an average of 9.17 runs. This isn’t from the offense exploding for 20 runs in one game to skew the mean, either, as Atlanta scored 8 or more runs in 8 of those twelve victories. The bottom line on Ramirez is that he has never averaged even 5 K/9IP in a season and barley walks less than that…he’s not a very good pitcher.

Back to Soriano. The big question mark with him is his health. He missed two years due to Tommy John surgery and has had a recurring sore shoulder/neck (which has actually flared up this spring, reportedly from exercising in a pool). I’m choosing to ignore the line drive he took off his head late last year, as that was a freak accident and has nothing to do with durability. That aside, Soriano should average about a strikeout per inning this year and about 3 strikeouts for every walk. As long as he can control his flyball tendencies (he has a .60 GB/FB ratio), Soriano should be very effective for Atlanta.

The rest of the bullpen will be filled with a yet to be determined group chosen from Chad Paronto, Oscar Villareal, Lance Cormier (although he will more than likely be in the rotation until Hampton comes back sometime in April or May, maybe longer, as Hampton will probably contact Kerry Wood for more creative ways to become injured), Tyler Yates, Blaine Boyer, Macay McBride (lefty specialist), and Peter Moylan. While none of these will particularly strike fear in the heart of NL hitters, they should be adequate in filling the roles needed to supplement the three additions mentioned above.

In This Market, Vazquez Deal Makes Sense

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Thu, 08 Mar 2007 13:44:00 +0000

Several interesting things were learned this offseason, especially regarding pitchers…

Apparently, allowing opponents to hit .302/.337/.465 against you over the course of your career (and upping this to .324/.354/.538 in 2006) will get your $4.325MM option exercised. That’s right, Twins fans, you’re all lucky enough to have Carlos Silva in your rotation once again. Personally, I would have taken Tomo Ohka for $1.5MM or John Thomson for $500k. Even when you factor in the $100k it would have cost to buyout Silva’s option, the Twins still would have come out well ahead.

In other places, Jason Marquis received $21MM over 3 years (how depressed are Cubs fans going to be in the next few seasons?), Jeff Weaver received a one year, $8.325MM from the Mariners (could he be a Boras client?), and Russ Ortiz has a job (the amount here doesn’t matter, it’s just funny that he has a job. I’m convinced that the Giants are trying to see if he can average over 30 pitches per inning over the course of the season.)

All this to say that the Chicago White Sox committing $34.5MM to Javier Vazquez over three seasons (running from 2008 through 2010) seems like a relative bargain to me. Vazquez has been very reliable over his career, evidenced by the fact that he has pitched less than 200 innings only once since 2000 (198 IP in 2004 with NYY). In addition, he has solid career rates of 7.81 K/9 and 3.25 K/BB (and ranked in the top 20 among all MLB pitchers in both of these categories for the 2006 season). Putting up these numbers in the AL Central division is no small feat. Additionally, these rate stats, as well as his career GB/FB ratio, are surprisingly similar to Jason Schmidt’s, who is four years older and will be getting paid about $4.2MM more per season after signing his 3 year deal this offseason.

Locking him down for only a three year deal was a smart move by Ken Williams, in my opinion. Vazquez will be only 34 in the year that this deal expires, and this gives the White Sox at least one spot in the rotation that they don’t have to worry about in the coming seasons (especially while they try to figure out if Buehrle will end up being the pitcher from 2005 or 2006). The limited no-trade clause (against the 9 teams in NL and AL West) would still allow the Sox some flexibility should they, for some reason, choose to get rid of Vazquez in the next few years.

$11.5MM spread evenly over three years for a (relatively) young pitcher with a proven track record looks like it could be one of best signings (extension, actually) in a pretty out of control offseason.

Young Extension a Mistake for Texas

noreply@blogger.com (bstewart) — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 16:48:00 +0000

The Texas Rangers recently signed SS Michael Young to a 5 year extension worth ~$80 million. The extension runs from 2009 through the 2013 season (as he was already under contract for $3.5MM this year, with a $5MM club option for 2008).

Forgetting the fact that Rangers had two more seasons to execute this deal (why would you not want observe his age 30 and 31 seasons to watch for regression?), this extension still doesn't make sense. Even more so when considering that several free agent SS (including Renteria and Furcal) hit the market after the 2008 season.

Young's range at SS has never been above average (or even average, really), as shown by John Dewan's range factors. Additionally, he has two offensive indicators that, I think, hint that his range will soon get worse than it already is:

1) His 3B (triples) have dropped off in the past few years (9, 9, 5, 3 in the past four seasons, respectively)
2) His GIDP (grounded into double play) amounts have jumped significantly; 27 in 2006 (T-2nd in all of baseball), 20 in 2005 (T-10th). These are up from 11 (2004), 14 (2003), and 14 (2002).

I realize that different situations throughout a season could skew these numbers, but we're going to assume that opportunities with men on base, etc. are similar from season to season.

In addition, with Young’s .150 career ISO (Isolated Power), keep in mind that he’s never had over a .180 in a single season, once he regresses with age to around a .275 hitter (which will be sooner than later), that leaves him slugging at a .425 clip (and that’s assuming that his power doesn’t diminish as well…which it will). I think that’s fine for a SS position provided that a) the SS plays above average defense (which he doesn’t), and b) the SS is being paid like a league-average SS (which he isn’t).

One good note on this, however, is that the % of his hits that have been singles has dropped over the past four years as follows: 72.5%, 70.4%, 68.8%, and 68.2%, respectively. I note this because singles are the hits that are most likely caused by luck. Although that may be a good trend, I compared these rates to another shortstop: Miguel Tejada (note: Tejada signed a contract prior to the 2004 season for $72MM over 6 years, he will turn 34 in May of 2010). Both are 30 and both have consistently good averages (I say this only because this is the stat that people inevitably point to when arguing for Young being a premier shortstop). Tejada’s % of hits that were singles the past four years are as follows: 61%, 63.5%, 59.3%, and 71.5%. A big jump in that last year for him, but that’s just because he got lucky more in 2006. This proves the point even more: last year when he hit .330, that was Miggys’ highest AVG by ~20 points, but dropping his AVG doesn’t hurt him. That AVG was 13% higher than his career AVG, while his SLG was only 3% higher than his career SLG. Take some lucky singles away from Miggy and he’s fine because they account for ~10% less of his base hits than Young’s do. This power in a SS allows him to move positions as he ages.

Average propped or not, Young has been a useful offensive player the past few seasons (particularly in 2005). However, Young is signed through his age 36 season (and has a no-trade clause), but his bat won’t play at a corner position, and the Rangers will find out in the next few seasons that his glove can’t cut it at SS either.