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Feb 22 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - Likely To Drop Further As Big Fibo Overcome
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 04:00 AM
  • EUR/USD bulls are likely to buckle further as the market heads lower
  • Near-term scope is for a fall to 30-day lower bollinger-band at 1.2162
  • Bears have managed to register a daily close below the 1.2319 Fibo
  • 1.2319 is 23.6% retrace of the 1.1553 to 1.2556 (November to February) rise
  • Fourteen-day momentum is negative, reinforcing the underlying bearish market
  • Looking to fade recovery attempts at the 1.2325 level

EUR/USD Trader:

EUR/USD Bollinger Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Higher U.S. Rates Weigh EUR/USD And Soft IFO Expected
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 02:40 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.2260-86 in Asia opens 1.2275 in Europe
  • U.S. rates up sharply in the wake of Jan Fed mins
  • 30-yr U.S. yield tops just shy 3.25% and 10's just short 3.00%
  • 110bp tightening by Jan 2020 now priced in by Fed funds (new high)
  • Spread vs bunds widen further weighing EUR/USD and encouraging profit-taking
  • German IFO data at 9GMT f/c 117 from 117.6, test Feb 9 low 1.2206 may follow

Fed funds: Click here

UST/bunds: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 03:48 AM
USD/JPY - Back To Stasis After To-Fro Earlier, Bias Neutral?
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 01:40 AM
  • USD/JPY down from early 107.78 high to 107.16 but some bounce later.
  • Risk-off sentiment strong, Nikkei closes down 1%+, US yields firm.
  • Fears of more hawkish-than-thought Fed weighing on risk.
  • Nippon Life promise to buy USD/JPY sub-105 shrugged off for now.
  • Option expiries cushion - total USD1.7 bln or so 107.00-20
  • Also USD1.3 bln at 107.50, stops sub-107.00, above 108.00.

USD/JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 02:36 AM
USD/JPY - Floor At 105? Nippon Life To Buy
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 22 - 12:40 AM
  • Nippon Life CIO - ready to buy USD below 105.00.
  • Expects "Goldilocks" market near its end, will sell stocks on rallies.
  • Biggest bubble lies in government bonds, spike in JGB yields eyed?
  • USD/JPY fell to a fresh trend low of 105.55 on February 16.
  • Currently, JGB 10s are indicated @0.051%, 2s @-0.154%.

USD/JPY: Click here

Nikkei 225: Click here

Yield on JGB 10s: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 22 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 11:30 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 06 Feb 18, 1.2375):  Outlook for EUR is negative, odds for further weakness to 1.2204 have increased.

We highlighted yesterday that the mild downward pressure in EUR would increase further unless it can reclaim 1.2435. EUR slipped further in overnight trading and is pressuring the solid 1.2275 support at the time of writing. Downward pressure has clearly improved and the odds for further weakness towards the month-to-date low of 1.2204 have increased considerably. Looking further ahead, a clear break below 1.2204 would indicate that EUR has moved into a bearish phase. For now, we hold a ‘negative’ outlook for EUR unless it can move back above 1.2400 within the next few days. On a shorter-term note, 1.2360 is already a strong resistance.  

GBP/USD: Weakened undertone could lead to further weakness towards 1.3860.

GBP traded in a choppy manner yesterday, swinging from a low of 1.3905 to 1.4008 before plummeting back down to the current level of 1.3915. While Neutral (since 30 Jan 18, 1.4075): Pressure shift to the downside, could lead to further weakness to 1.3764. In the Chart of the Day update on Tuesday (20 Feb, spot at 1.4000), we were of the view that the consolidation phase “could last for last for a while more”. The sharp drop yesterday that cracked the bottom of the expected 1.3920/1.4200 consolidation phase came as a surprise and has shifted the immediate pressure to the downside. In other words, the outlook for GBP has turned negative and this could lead to further weakness towards the 1.3764 low seen earlier this month. Only a move back above 1.4020 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 15 Feb 18, 0.7925): Weakened undertone could lead to a test of 0.7730.

After trading mostly sideways for several days, the sharp and abrupt decline yesterday that sliced through the 0.7820 support was unexpected. While it is too early to expect that AUD has moved into a bearish phase, the undertone has weakened considerably and this could lead to a test of the solid support at 0.7730 (the month-to-date low near 0.7760 is acting as a strong intervening support). Overall, we expect AUD to stay under pressure, at least for the next several days unless it can reclaim 0.7910.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Potential double-top forming. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (reproduced below). The key resistance remains at 0.7435/40 but on a shorter-term note, 0.7390 is already a formidable level.

We highlighted on Monday (19 Feb, spot at 0.7385) that while upward momentum has improved considerably, only a “NY closing above 0.7435/40” would indicate the start of a bullish phase. NZD has since retreated and the recent price action appears to be forming a potential ‘double-top’ (note that last week’s 0.7437 peak matches the high in January). For now, downward momentum is not strong but the longer NZD stays below the critical 0.7435/40 level, the higher the risk of a deeper down-move. On the downside, 0.7270 is acting as a strong support and a break of this level could potentially lead to a sharp and rapid decline towards the key ‘neck-line’ support at 0.7176.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD has moved into a consolidation range.

We just shifted from a bearish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a broad 106.30/108.50 range.

UOB Research
Feb 22 - 12:12 AM
AUD/NZD - Strong Negative Setup - Next Stop 1.0639
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 10:25 PM
  • -0.1% on disparate components after yesterday's AUD led 0.6% fall
  • Stops tripped offshore below 1.0700 - no news/data behind the break
  • Momentum studies edge lower, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs trend south - bearish setup
  • Targets 1.0639 test, 61.8% 2016/17 climb, then 1.0588, 76.4% Jun/Oct rise
  • Close above 1.0737 10 DMA needed to undermine downside bias
  • Asian 1.0655/1.0671 range initial support/resistance

aun feb 22: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 11:00 PM
AUD/JPY - Lurches Lower As Risk Off Sentiment Intensifies
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 08:50 PM
  • AUD/JPY down over 0.65% to 83.55 as some risk assets under renewed pressure
  • S&P futures down 0.5%; AXJ Equity index down 0.85% and Lon Copper down 1.3%
  • AUD/JPY approaching the 93.30 low hit last week when markets were in turmoil
  • A break below 83.25 targets the base of the weekly I-cloud at 82.70

aud/jpy Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 09:48 PM
NZD/USD - Soft Early After A Bearish Outside Day - USD Led
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 07:25 PM
  • -0.1% in early Asia after opening -0.4% on broad USD yield led strength
  • Bearish outside day would be validated by a close below 0.7317 NY low
  • Negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs conflict - modest bearish setup
  • Longer term target is 0.7176/86, 38.2% of 2017/18 bounce & Feb low
  • 0.7307, 50% Feb bounce under pressure - next support 0.7276, 61.8%
  • Earlier 0.7319 high then 0.7383 NY top initial resistance

nzd feb 22: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - Modest Downside Bias, As USD Leads
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 06:55 PM
  • Fraction softer early - closed -0.5%, USD led, higher UST yields, 10yr 2.95%
  • USD leads at present, but Brexit uncertainty remains in the wings
  • Negative momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs crest/fall - modest bearish setup
  • Targets a test of 1.3764 Feb low, while closes below 1.4007 20 DMA
  • 1.3905 NY low, then 1.3854, 76.4% Feb bounce initial support
  • NY post FOMC 1.4008 high first resistance

gbp feb 22: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 05:00 PM
USD: FOMC Minutes: Bolster Our Call For 4 More Fed Hikes This Year - SEB
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 03:13 PM

SEB Research discusses the reaction to today's FOMC minutes from the January 31st meeting.

"More upbeat assessment of growth and inflation outlook supports a four hikes scenario," SEB argues. 

"Summarising our take on today’s minutes, the more upbeat assessment of economic activity and increasing confidence that inflation will reach target bolster our expectations for a March hike and three additionalrate hikes in 2018 (June, September, December)," SEB concludes. 


SEB Research
Feb 21 - 03:48 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD's Slide To Deepen But Bulls Lie In Wait
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 10:25 AM

EUR/USD is on the back foot after eurozone PMIs missed estimates, and upcoming event risks -- particularly from the Fed -- could deepen the slide.
EUR/USD is also suffering from a broad dollar fueled in part by widening DE-US 2-year spreads.
The upcoming Fed minutes are likely to reinforce the post-January meeting presser that markets interpreted as hawkish.
Fed speakers this week could add emphasis to this stance in the wake of forecast-beating US wage and CPI data recently.
Hawkish signals should keep the USD firm and limit EUR/USD rallies.
Techs support a deeper correction as well.
RSIs are biased down after recent divergences were made on February's high and the monthly doji candle in place suggests either consolidation or a correction is due.
However the options market suggests the EUR/USD correction won't become a runaway move to the downside .
Short-term interest rate futures also price in a more hawkish view for eurozone rates beginning in 2019, in contrast to U.S. rates that are expected to remain nearly flat.
EUR/USD dip buyers likely remain in the 1.2160/70 and 1.2050/1.2100 areas with the expectation that new trend highs will be made.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD's Long Targets Above 0.8100
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 10:15 AM

Slide from February's high extends and pierces the 10 and 55-Day SMAs as well as the daily cloud top.
Our long's entry get filled.
We target 0.8115 but RSIs are biased down so we might have to deal with a deeper correction before the rally resumes.
We have left a wide stop.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: End Of USD Weakness? No, But New Range In Place - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 10:35 AM

Danske Bank Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and note that it has been in the hands of USD (supportive) forces recently.

"We see this as an interim period of range trading – with EUR/USD likely staying in the 1.21-1.26 range – near term.

We still look for the cross to head higher in Q2 on flow support but breathing space for now due to the following:  Upward momentum in US yields keep a hand under USD at present as the reflation story is currently originating from the US.

EUR positioning is stretched and the ECB will adjust forward guidance only marginally in March, which means no imminent support to add longs.

Risk reversals and technical indicators suggest EUR/USD risks are more two-sided near term; but 2017 high of 1.2072 likely to hold," Danske argues. 

Danske Research
Feb 21 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - PMI Keeps 108 Hurdle, Upside In Play
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 10:00 AM
  • USD/JPY capped by offers sub-108 & 38.2% of Feb's slide
  • US Markit PMI beat underpins. 200-HMA now support by 107.25
  • Props @107, 106.72 good value. 108.51-62 upside targets
  • Extreme daily ADX high suggests more upside potential
  • Big positive carry favors longs, RM starting to buy again


Charts: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 11:00 AM
NZD/USD: On A High Alert For A Confirmation Of A Triple Top: Levels & Targets - NAB
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 09:09 AM

NAB Research discusses NZD/USD technical outlook and is on a high alert for price and ST momentum triggers that would confirm the recent triple top at 0.7420/40 as a multi-week high.

"If NZD/USD were to break the triple top this week we would anticipate the upper weekly Bollinger band (now 0.7475/85) to cap the spike.

In the MT we see NZD/USD trapped in an approximate 0.68/0.75 range. We are yet to see any definitive sign of a reversal back into the range however we remain on high alert as NZD tests the top of our proposed MT range," NAB argues. 

NAB Research
Feb 21 - 09:48 AM
EUR/USD: Scope For For A Dip Into 1.22 Before Next Test Of 1.25 - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 08:34 AM

Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and notes the the ongoing USD bounce can extend further before  resuming its broad weakness.

"As the front end of the US curve gradually gets back to more normal levels, global equity markets are sufficiently unphased for the dollar's bounce to go a little further.

On the US goes to the FOMC minutes (and existing home sales and 5-year Notes), but it would take either some significant follow-through from US equity wobbles or some pretty dovish words in the Minutes to de-rail the dollar bounce yet.

There would be nothing surprising about a dip in EUR/USD to 1.22 or so before the next test of 1.25," SocGen argues. 



Société Générale Research
Feb 21 - 08:36 AM
EUR/USD - Weaker Than Expected PMIs But EUR/USD Holds Firm
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 06:35 AM
  • EUR/USD trades a tight 1.2308-1.2339 range in Europe (Asia 1.2308-44)
  • German Feb composite PMI 57.4 vs 58.5 f/c and prior 59.0 nL9N1N902K
  • EZ Feb composite PMI 57.5 vs 58.5 f/c and prior 58.8 nL9N1N902L
  • Limited FX reaction likely because PMIs remain at lofty levels
  • Resistance at 21-DMA at 1.2381 and 200-HMA 1.2372
  • Support @ Feb 13/14 lows 1.2285/75 support then Feb 9 low 1.2206

EZ and German PMI results: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 07:24 AM
USD/JPY - Demand Wanes In London, Fed Risk In Focus
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 04:05 AM
  • USD/JPY rise has been a boon for those pursuing sell-rally strategies
  • FOMC risk due to amount of speakers and meeting minutes
  • Talk of supply near 108.00 with stops above, recall 107.91 was Feb 14 peak
  • Spot rose in Asia from 107.28 early on to hit 107.90 on short-covering
  • Stops above 107.50 tripped on way up in Asia, MoF Asakawa comments helped
  • Asakawa stated that yen rises are "one-sided" nT9N17903C

Daily Bollinger Chart: Click here

Pivot Chart: Click here

EBS Flow Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - Weighed Down By Brexit Concerns Pre-UK Data
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 03:50 AM
  • Brexit concerns are weighing on GBP ahead of UK economic data at 0930GMT
  • The concerns derive from a Brexit letter sent by 62 Tory MPs to PM May
  • See: nL8N1QB18I. The signatories of the letter are strongly pro-Brexit
  • Cable down to 1.3950 from an early Europe high just shy of 1.40
  • 1.3932 was Tuesday's six-day low, before a Brexit-related report boosted GBP
  • See: . UK earnings and jobs data due 0930GMT

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Feb 21 - 05:00 AM
GBP/USD - Could Drop To 1.3932 If UK Earnings Sub-F/c
First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 21 - 02:40 AM
  • GBP/USD could drop towards 1.3932 if UK earnings below forecast at 0930GMT
  • 2.5% is consensus expectation, ex-bonus earnings f/c 2.4%
  • Miss would be blow for hawks advocating 2 or 3 BoE rate hikes this year
  • 1.3932 = Tuesday low, before Brexit-related report boosted GBP
  • 1.3965-1.4025 defines range since Business Insider report published
  • 62 Tory MPs demand May delivers Brexit with full autonomy-BBC nL8N1QB18I

UK data: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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