• EUR net spec position shifts to short of 7,541 contracts as of Tuesday from long of 507 contracts last week

• JPY net spec short grows to 93,742 contracts vs previous week's short of 72,872

• GBP net spec short edges up to 56,354 from short of 52,665

• AUD long shrinks to 70,813 from long of 81,506

• MXN long 57,471 vs long of 57,684

• CHF short 30,694 vs short of 29,871

• NZD short 36,075 vs short of 28,588

• CAD short jumps to 55,648 from short of 32,684

EUR spec IMM


(Burton Frierson)

The euro notched a fifth straight gain, supported by relatively buoyant risk sentiment in Europe ahead of weekend U.S.-Iran talks, ECB hike expectations, and broader de-dollarization themes. WTI oil swung in a narrow range for most of the session amid posturing between negotiating parties. Iranian officials said its assets must be unfrozen and a ceasefire established in Lebanon before U.S. talks can proceed. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran should not charge tolls on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The risk mood waned later after he posted on social media that Iranians have “no cards” and that "the only reason they are alive today is to negotiate." He also told the New York Post that U.S. warships are being reloaded and will resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail. Pakistan's prime minister said U.S.–Iran talks are make-or-break for a permanent ceasefire. The dollar dipped initially after an in-line U.S. CPI and a record-low Michigan sentiment reading, testing its weekly low near the 200-DMA, before paring losses as risk sentiment soured.

FX turnover was mixed ahead of the weekend talks, with implied vols generally marked lower. Scandies and Antipodeans pulled back following solid weekly gains. EUR/USD touched a 1½-month high near 1.1740 before easing, initially supported by tighter U.S.–German spreads and firmer equities, while the pair’s hold above key moving averages and rising RSIs keeps the bias bullish. Euro sentiment was initially buoyed by a few tankers going through Strait of Hormuz and a Bloomberg report about Ukraine and Russia potentially moving toward a deal. GBP/USD posted its best week since the Iran conflict began, with shallow pullbacks, a second close above its 200-DMA, and positive weekend-talks outcomes offering a path above 1.3485/1.3500 resistance.

USD/JPY held modest gains in a narrow band near its 21-DMA, with any oil-driven uptick from the Iran talks likely to put 160 back in play.

AUD/USD printed a doji, signaling consolidation beneath 0.71 congestion while holding above its 55-DMA.

Treasury yields were up about 2 basis points with the 2s-10s curve edging up to +51.1bp.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.13%.

WTI was down 1.6%.

Gold was steady and copper rose about 2%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.26%, USD/JPY +0.16%, GBP/USD +0.24%, AUD/USD -0.03%, DXY -0.17%, EUR/JPY +0.45%, GBP/JPY +0.45%, AUD/JPY +0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• NY opened near 0.7065 after AUD/USD traded downward in Asia & Europe's morning

• The pair rallied in early NY as US$, US yields traded downward

• USD/CNH drop to 6.8213, rallies in gold, stocks, silver added to AUD/USD's buoyancy

• The pair traded 0.7092 but sellers emerged and the pair turned lower on the session

• US$, yields firmed up while stocks & gold turned down; AUD/USD dipped toward 0.7065

• The pair sat near 0.7075 late, AUD/USD traded down -0.11% in NY's afternoon

• A daily doji formed, suggest the pair could be consolidating its recent gains

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above the 55-DMA, daily cloud are bullish signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan adopts a tactical neutral bias on CHF in the near-term.

"EURCHF inching higher as USDCHF has struggled to break below 0.79. Continued headlines and back and forth around the ceasefire make it difficult to have a huge amount of risk right now. I do think we eventually muddle through to a positive outcome with Iran, but when and how long that takes is another question.

Whilst buying dips in EURCHF would make sense with that view, we're struggling to get invested in the franc given the lack of clear correlation," JPM notes.

"Back on the sidelines then, and worth noting systematics bought CHF the last two days after selling 12 out of the prior 15," JPM adds.

• Shares of copper miners rise, tracking gains in prices of the red metal [MET/L]

• Benchmark copper on London Metal Exchange up 1.7% at $12,901 a metric ton, its highest since March 17

• Copper prices hit their highest in more than three weeks as investors weigh signs of improved demand in top metals consumer China against uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire in the Iran war

• U.S.-listed shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto

up 1.8% and BHP Group rise marginally

• Miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan

gain 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively

• Canada's Hudbay Minerals jumps 3%, Ero Copper

adds 1.7% and Teck Resources up 3.5%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a limited scope for further USD downside from current levels.

"We doubt that the latest FX price action is the beginning of a downtrend for the USD, however. This is because of two considerations: (1) there is still a huge amount of uncertainty in the Middle East, suggesting that the conflict is far from resolved and delaying any normalisation of the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; and (2) a sustained decline of global energy prices remains a distant prospect and would suggest that the economies of energy importers like the Eurozone are still to experience the negative consequences from the energy supply shock triggered by the war," CACIB notes.

"This could mean that demand for the safe-haven USD may not weaken significantly further and could undermine the appeal of EUR-denominated assets for example," CACIB adds.

Technical signals, positioning and yield differentials indicate EUR/USD bulls may be targeting January's high.

The currency pair reached a 1-1/2-month high Friday, driven by evolving expectations regarding interest rates. Following the March U.S. CPI report, short-term interest rate markets indicate traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of 2026, while euro zone markets continue to price in potential rate hikes from the ECB during the same period. This shifting landscape, coupled with tightening U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads , diminishes the dollar's yield advantage over the euro, potentially underpinning a EUR/USD rally.

Additionally, the latest CFTC data reveals that net-euro positions are nearly flat, suggesting minimal selling pressure from investors looking to exit long-euro positions. This could lead to amplified bullish impacts in EUR/USD, resulting in larger-than-normal price movements.

Technically, the pair exhibits bullish momentum, with today's rebound from the 55- and 200-day moving averages and the formation of a daily bull hammer candle. The daily and monthly RSI readings indicate upward momentum remains, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Resistance at 1.1800 poses a challenge, but if breached, January's monthly high of 1.2084 becomes a clear target for traders.
deus


eurcftc


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses its latest Fed call.

"Our recent forecast revisions showed slightly softer growth and higher inflation, yet we retained our forecast for two Fed cuts this year.

We still expect cuts this year given the Fed's bias to look through supply-driven inflation, a stable but fragile labor market, little signs of wage pressures, and political pressure," BofA notes.

"While risks are tilted towards no cuts, by September, Warsh should be in and have enough evidence of inflation cooling to rally support for a couple of cuts," BofA adds.

ANZ Research discusses AUD outlook over the coming week.

"The AUD bounced back above 0.7050 for the first time in nearly three weeks on improving risk sentiment. We think near-term upside is likely capped at a year-to-date high of 0.7187 because negotiations in the Middle East conflict are ongoing. A clear reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely see the pair above 0.72. Until then, a range of 0.7–0.72 is likely to hold, near term, ANZ notes.

"March’s Labour Force survey is out next Thursday, and we expect 15k growth in employment and unemployment rate at 4.2% Since the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, rate hike expectations for both the BoE and ECB have reduced. Hawkish expectations for the RBA have remained largely unchanged, which confirms our negative bias for both GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD, though a short EUR/AUD position may see better carry returns," ANZ adds.

• Cable has traded a 32.5 pip range since the London open; 1.3443 = session high

• 1.3443 is 14 pips shy of Thursday high (1.3484 was Wednesday's five-week high)

• US March CPI data is due at 1230 GMT; 3.3% YY expected (Reuters poll)

• Hotter than expected CPI would be a blow for doves advocating Fed cut this year

• U.S. CPI >3.3% might also lift the dollar, depress GBP/USD towards 1.3400

• Gilt yields rise for second consecutive day. Three MPC members speak next week

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hit 0.7086 in Asia, sellers emerged, 0.7054 traded in Europe's morning

• NY opened near 0.7065, the pair traded down -0.25% in early action

• Lower US yields , USD/CNH slide from its high helped contain losses

• Gold's drop & AUD/JPY turn lower helped to limit AUD/USD's topside

• AUD/USD traded within Thursday's daily range but above the 55-DMA, daily cloud

• Daily RSI is falling but monthly RSI is rising & pair may now be consolidating recent gains

• March CPI & April U of Michigan survey are key data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 10 (Reuters) - There is a growing threat of a move lower in sterling versus the dollar, potentially ending a five-day bull run.

That threat is becoming more visible across moving-average structures. The 50-day moving average is poised to cross below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-DMA sits just four pips above the 100-day average and nine pips above the more significant 200-DMA, leaving the market on the verge of a death cross.

A death cross in technical analysis is a bearish chart signal that occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average. Most commonly, it means the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. Traders often interpret it as a sign that momentum may be weakening and that a downtrend could develop.

GBP/USD is also being weighed down by a thickening and falling daily Ichimoku cloud. The cloud base is close to the market price, currently at 1.3475. Sterling has been trading below the Ichimoku cloud on a closing basis since March 2.

The bias is bearish on Friday, and should GBP/USD close the week in negative territory, more downside pressure is likely to emerge next week. The main downside targets are 1.3322, the daily Ichimoku kijun-sen, and 1.3160, the March 31 low.
GBP/USD daily chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD closed bullishly above the 200, 100 and 55-DMAs on Thursday

• Pair closed 1.1699 but peak 20-day Bollinger Bands is 1.1696

• Stretched nature of rise is limiting further gains

• Lack of a notable pullback suggests bigger rise

• Halfway point of 2026 slide from 1.2084 to 1.1409 at 1.1747 is next level

• Traders have erased a $27 billion bullish bet freeing the euro to ro rise

• FX traders have prepared for higher US CPI and that matters

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 21 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3415-1.3436

• 1.3415 is also the low water-mark since Thursday's 1.3457 peak

• Thursday's peak was scaled on news Israel seeks Lebanon talks

• 1.3484 was Wednesday's five-week high, after Iran ceasefire news

• GBP/USD was sub-1.33 pre-ceasefire news. Thursday's low was 1.3383

• U.S. March CPI data due at 1230 GMT; 3.3% YY f/c. Core f/c 2.7% YY

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of gold explorer Kaiser Reef fall nearly 10% to A$0.275, set for worst day since March 23

• Co reports lower q-o-q production for its Henty and Maldon gold mines

• Qtrly gold production at Henty at 5,188oz vs 6,946oz; Maldon qtrly gold production 346oz vs 715oz

• About 5.8mln shares traded so far, 2.1x 30-day average

• YTD, stock down 5.2%
(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• Shares of Australia's Tivan rise as much as 12.4% to A$0.363, their biggest intraday pct gain since March 10

• Stock touches highest level since March 13

• Critical minerals explorer finds copper-gold reserves across multiple sites at its Baucau and Ossu projects in Timor-Leste

• Stock up 13.1% so far this week, set for its best week since early-Feb

• Stock up 25.5% YTD, including day's moves

(Reporting by Aamir Sheik Khalid in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD +1.8% wtd as USD index struggles ahead of U.S.-Iran peace talks

• Fragile ceasefire holding for now, but traders remain wary of deterioration

• Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic continues to be effectively stalled

• U.S. Mar core CPI due Fri, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y

• UK Feb GDP, industrial output, trade balance updates all due Apr 16

• U.S. Q4 GDP +0.5% q/q (poll +0.7%), initial jobless claims 219k (poll 210k)

• Range Asia 1.3421-36, support 1.3160 1.3040, resistance 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 52-WMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +2.8% wtd as U.S.-Iran ceasefire delivering improved risk sentiment

• Pair moves towards striking distance of 0.71875 year-to-date high

• Israel seeking talks with Lebanon, eases concern of ceasefire derailment

• Strait of Hormuz shipping movements still effectively stalled

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Mon evening

• Range Asia 0.7071-855, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD up to 1.1723 EBS yesterday before pulling back, Asia 1.1686-1.1701

• Despite some easing, EUR/USD still relatively bid, more so than JPY

• EUR/USD holding just below 1.1716-1.1807 descending daily Ichimoku cloud

• Move back into cloud maybe only a matter of time

• This especially if the Middle East ceasefire holds over the weekend

• Flat-ish 200 and 100-DMAs in area at 1.1672 and 1.1693, respectively

• Hourly chart show EUR/USD above its 1.1622-74 Ichimoku cloud, to hold above?

• On options front, E1 bln expiries today between 1.1695-1.1700

• Some gravitational pull eyed, also expiries at 1.1725, 1.1740-45 E883 mln

• At 1.1800 strike, E1.3 bln in expiries today, likely to help cap rallies

• EUR/JPY holding bid, 186.01-10 EBS after push up to 186.21 yesterday

• High yesterday best since 186.40 on February 9, recent peak 186.87 Jan 23

• Support from hourly Ichimoku tenkan at 186.00, kijun 185.55 below

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY holding relatively bid still with Middle East ceasefire in question

• Market also wary ahead of the weekend, plenty could take place

• USD/JPY 158.97-159.10 EBS so far, follows 158.53-159.30 range yesterday

• Threat of FX intervention again, more official jaw-boning expected again

• Techs show USD/JPY holding above 158.65-96 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Descending 100/200-HMAs just above at 159.18/159.23, a sell above?

• JGB-US Treasury rate differential up in short-end but long-end still narrow

• In options, massive $2.1 bln expiries today between 158.00-10

• Also 159.50 $431 bln and larger $967 mln up at 160.00

• Related comments , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , , ,

• On Fed , , US data
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.6% from Thur 0.5818 low amid uplift in broader risk appetite

• Pair breaks above 0.5849 200-DMA, door open for run at 0.5891 resistance

• A more hawkish sounding RBNZ has invigorated buyers for time being

• Fears of ceasefire derailment allayed by reports Israel seeking Beirut talks

• NZ Mar manufacturing PMI 53.2 (prior 55.0), remains in expansionary zone

• U.S. Q4 GDP +0.5% q/q (poll +0.7%), initial jobless claims 219k (poll 210k)

• Range NZ 0.5851-63, support 0.5680 0.5580, resistance 0.5918 0.6092
NZD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research maintains a bullish bias on Gold over the medium-term.

"We believe fundamentals for gold are still supportive, though guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggests a cautious monetary policy response. We expect the Fed to look through the first-round effects of the conflict – potential broadbased price rises, increases in wage pressures and/or a surge in inflation expectations – in the coming months to assess whether second-round effects become persistent. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain well-behaved, though 12-month-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 3.8%," ANZ notes.

"We still expect three more Fed rate cuts in this easing cycle: two in 2026 and one in 2027. The decisions could be deferred by rising energy prices but not reversed. Other factors, such as economic growth risks, worsening geopolitical relations, currency volatility and downside risks to equity markets will continue to support gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier. We believe fresh investment and retail demand will emerge below USD4,500/oz," ANZ adds.

• AUD/USD +0.9% from Thur 0.7023 low as positive risk sentiment persists

• Israel seeking talks with Lebanon after putting U.S.-Iran ceasefire at risk

• U.S. Q4 GDP +0.5% q/q (poll +0.7%), initial jobless claims 219k (poll 210k)

• AUD gathering momentum for run at 0.71875 ytd high, hawkish RBA may assist

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking in New York Mon evening

• Overnight range 0.7023-945, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7188 0.7282
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The euro climbed on Thursday, supported by firmer European yields and an improving risk tone after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the start of peace talks with Lebanon and discussions about Hezbollah disarmament, even as fighting continued. Axios reported that negotiations between Israel and Lebanon would start next week at the U.S. State Department in Washington. Netanyahu's announcement follows Israel's biggest strike of the war in Lebanon and multiple officials advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for broader talks. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate the ceasefire agreement and would render upcoming negotiations meaningless. EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas said the ceasefire agreement between the U.S and Iran should extend to Lebanon, adding that Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah must disarm. A statement from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamene said Iran will enter a new phase in managing the Strait and does not seek war though vows to defend its rights. Russia’s TASS reported that Iran will permit no more than 15 vessels a day through the Strait under its ceasefire. NATO chief Mark Rutte said allies are meeting Trump’s demands despite some delays and advocated for greater defense spending by allies to reduce reliance on the U.S. Disappointed in NATO's recent support, Trump is weighing pulling some U.S. troops from Europe, according to Reuters.

Already positioned for a more constructive risk backdrop ahead of U.S.–Iran talks, sentiment accelerated following Netanyahu’s remarks.

The dollar index fell toward its 100-day average at 98.65 and Wednesday’s low, with improved risk appetite lifting the Antipodeans and Scandies.

FX implied volatility fell broadly, with one-month yen vols close to their YTD low near 7.6%, though DXY risk reversals were mostly steady.

EUR/USD broke above its 55- and 100-day moving averages to briefly hit a one-month high at 1.1723 on broad dollar weakness, firmer European yields and EUR/JPY strength, leaving near-term momentum tilted toward bulls into Friday.

AUD/USD rebounded sharply in New York to 0.7095, buoyed by firmer risk sentiment and falling U.S. yields, with momentum turning constructive and near-term upside favored as long as gains hold above the mid-0.70 area.

GBP gained 0.4% on firmer risk sentiment, briefly clearing the 200-day moving average and keeping upside focus on the 1.3485–1.3500 zone, though momentum may be tempered ahead of U.S. CPI risks skewed to the upside.

USD/JPY was capped near its 21-day moving average at 159.22 as firmer risk sentiment, sliding volatility and steady oil supported yen crosses, leaving the pair range-bound with downside risks slightly favored ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI.

Treasury yields were mostly steady as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up marginally to +50.8bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.45%.

WTI oil was up over 4% though off session highs.

Gold rose 1.1% while copper slipped 0.2%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.31%, USD/JPY +0.25%, GBP/USD +0.27%, AUD/USD +0.48%, DXY -0.32%, EUR/JPY +0.55%, GBP/JPY +0.54%, AUD/JPY +0.73%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)