Elliott Waves at Forex

2011-08-13 - sp500 - waiting for new low?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 08:51:00 +0000

Sp500 stopped falling down. Let's look at the chart (daily) to see actual situation:

Last drops I labeled as 3rd wave, rises of index value is 4th wave. After finishing 4th wave we sholud look forward to see 5th wave with the new bottom.

However there could be no 5th wave, so whole move will end in 3 waves structure. This occurence can be seen on intraday chart (H4):

The 4th consists of waves a, b and c. When wave c will be done next low will tell us if there is wave 5 or not. If new low will end before previous low the correction is over and sp500 is in new rally.

2011-08-01 - eurusd - deeper 4th wave

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:25:00 +0000

Corrective wave 4 isn't done and dolar gained value as a result of the deal between Democrats and Republicans:

At the moment it's dificult to judge if the wave c is over, however we it could be possible. After finishing 4th wave, I'm expecting to see 5th wave ending at the level of 1.4624.

2011-07-30 - sp500 - it's not the end of the correction?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sat, 30 Jul 2011 09:20:00 +0000

We can see strange situation on daily s&p 500 chart:

5th wave height didn't brake the 3th height. this situation can take place in impulse, however I'm aware of the fact that correction is not done, and s&p 500 is going downwards to the new minimum.

At this point we have three posibilities: sp500 is gaining value and makeing new height (whole structure is the first wave of new uptrend), sp500 is losing value and is making new minimum (correction is not over) or sp500 is losing value but not forming new minimum (wave D is first impulse, and then is corrective wave 2).

2011-07-29 - eurusd - last growths before bigger correction?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 18:56:00 +0000

On hourly chart we can see end of wave 4 and beginning of wave 5:

On the other hand waves i and ii can be just correction in wave 4, so we have to wait till wave ii is done. If the bottom of wave ii is lower then wave c, we are still in wave 4.

2011-07-28 - eurusd - the end of 4th wave?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 19:48:00 +0000

Eurusd has been in correction since yesterday - pair has lost more then 50% 3rd wave value. We can see it on H4 chart:

4th wave came into the are of wave 2, this is possible on markets with lever.

4th is probably done - we can see it on the hourly chart:

We can see that wave a is longer then wave c - so we can make assumption that three waves correction is over, hover the market will check if we were right or not.

2011-07-24 - gbpusd - rally in several months?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sun, 24 Jul 2011 10:00:00 +0000

Let's look at weekly chart to see wide perspective of gbpusd:

We can see that index is in rally - actually in wave {3} which consists of waves [1],[2],[3],[4] and [5]. Wave [4] ended in the middle of July, and now gbpusd is in [5] wave. Daily chart shows this occurrence:

Wave [5] can reach even 1,7240 level. At the four hours chart it is presented by waves 1,2 and 3:

Gbpusd is actually in 3rd wave, which devides to waves: i,ii,iii, and so on.

Wave [5] will end during next several months, this will be also end of rally and beginning of correction.

2011-07-23 - sp500 - end of the rally is close

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 11:06:00 +0000

Sp500 index is in 5th wave of rally. It has ended 4th wave on monday:

2011-07-21 - eurusd - uptrend or downtrend?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 20:15:00 +0000

Eurusd may be in it's turning point. After gaining value the currency may drop. Let's look at the H4 chart:

We can see three waves of impulse (in uptrend). However this impulse could be also a correction. In this situation we sholud expect drops below 1,3835 level. The weekness of this theory is the down move from the beginning of July - it has three waves, not five.

In the end, I'm expecting some drops in corrective 4th wave and rally in 5th wave.

2011-07-15 - sp500 - correction in uptrend

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 08:19:00 +0000

It looks like sp500 ended correction ABC in the middle of June. At the moment index is in uptrend. We can see it on the daily chart:

After finishing 4th wave index will go towards new high (over high of 3rd wave, but could be less then wave B high).

2011-06-25 - s&p500 - end of drops?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sat, 25 Jun 2011 08:13:00 +0000

Last week index ended 3rd wave and moved to 4th wave (possibly it's fully formed). After finishing little rally in 4th wave, I'm expecting some drops in 5th wave:

5th wave will end wave C of ABC correction and index should continue to gain walue.

2011-06-18 - s&p500 - gaining value in short term?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Sun, 19 Jun 2011 16:47:00 +0000

After five waves impuls s&p 500 index is in ABC corection. It started in February and lasts till today. We had waves A nad B fully formatted and now index is in wave C:

Wave C consists of 5 waves, actually we are in wave 3. I printed possible endings of waves 4 and 5 on the chart.

2011-06-17 - eurusd - contiunation of drops?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 16:22:00 +0000

In last entry I've mentioned ending od wave (B) in correction on eurusd. Indeed, wave (B) is over, however it lasted longer. At the moment pair is in wave (C) and it's losing value. We can see it at daily chart:

Let's look at wave (C) at H4 chart:

We can cee impulsive waves 1 and 3 (third wave is longer then the first one). At the moment eurusd is in corrective 4 wave wich shlould end after the weekend.

2011-05-31 - eurusd - little drop in short term?

noreply@blogger.com (mackowy) — Tue, 31 May 2011 17:08:00 +0000

This is the first post on this blog, so at the beginning I would like to present it to you. I will post my analyses, generally using elliot waves tool, about forex market and s&p 500 index.

Today I will analyze pair eurusd.

Let's look at the D1 chart:

We can see 5 waves rally started in the and of December and ended at the beginning of May. Now, we are in three waves correction. Wave (A) has ended and now eurusd is gaing value in irregular wave (B). It's clearer on H4 chart:

Waves a and b are fully formed, and wave c is ending: it has completed wave 3 (H1 chart):

I'm expecting some drops in wave 4 and then little rally in wave 5. Then wave (C) will started. Probably it will reach 1,3660 points level.