Emas Gold Trader Harga Emas 999.9 Ejen Konsultan

Goldrunner: The Gold Tsunami Wave Cycle

2011-09-26T10:37:00.002+08:00

The Gold (and Silver) bull continues to closely follow the giant wave formation of a tsunami. The recent more parabolic rise in Gold up to above $1,900 is analogous to the little ridge of water we first saw way out in the distance, and now, much like when the waters recede from the shore early in the tsunami wave formation, Gold is undergoing a correction.

As the “Gold” waters receded, the diehard deflationists have run out onto the bare sea bed to whoop and holler that the sea of Dollar Inflation is ending. They currently hop about the nearby sea floor waving their arms in victory as they envision a catastrophic deflationary depression that will wreck the financial market back to the Stone Age, and the price of the Precious Metals along with it. Unfortunately, they fail to understand the wave cycle at work as the waters are sucked away from the shore only to strengthen the Gold tsunami wave that grows in the distance For the great Gold tsunami wave is being bolstered as the economy deteriorates, thereby necessitating a continued parabolic growth of printing of paper currencies worldwide. Where the first little parabolic rise in Gold merely caught the attention of the public, the growing strength of that wave as it reaches shore will leave everyone running for the hills of Gold and Silver.

The Fed Shows Inflation When They Want To and Deflation When They Want To

Last week, the Fed met for a special two-day meeting that ended with a dull thud as they announced “The Twist” that sounds a bit like a dance from the 60s. They also stated that the economy was weakening - economic weakness that has motivated them to aggressively inflate the US Dollar for 10 years, now. Yet, market expectations were for the Fed to announce another round of Dollar Inflation via QE3 at the special 2 day meeting so the markets sold off in response to the failure of the Fed’s announcement.

What occurred in the Precious Metals markets seems a bit absurd as Gold and Silver were pounded aggressively lower in price though the Fed often leads rounds of Dollar Inflation with suggestive hints of deflationary pressures. To some extent it defines the need for their move, and it probably intends to show that they are in control of something that they cannot control. The massive deflationary backdrop of debt demands that they either “inflate or die.”

Commentators noted that the exaggerated fall in Gold, Silver, and in the PM stocks resulted from margin calls “where investors sell what they have to sell.” Yet, the extent of the weekly fall in the DJIA was rather small compared to the 2 week fall back in early August - a time when Gold, Silver, and the PM Stocks moved higher. A more likely cause for the fall in the PM sector lies in the Fed’s failure to announce QE3 as it pointed to economic weakness, combined with this coming Tuesday’s Gold and Silver options expiration date - a monthly bashing that generally sees Gold and Silver whacked to lower levels. Further downside pressure on the PM sector probably stems from big trading firms reversing their “long Gold/ short PM stock ratio trade.” The large swings in the Gold price over the last 30 days provided the volume they needed to sell paper gold, and to cover and accumulate the Gold and Silver shares. Given the timing one has to wonder whether these large traders are the same firms who trade for the Market Stabilization Fund, and if they knew in advance that the Fed would tip its comments to deflation this week.

The Gold Chart

The following Gold Chart shows that the cyclical tendency since early 2009 has been for Gold to bottom at the green arrows with Gold correcting down to and through the dotted Bollinger Band (BB) mid-line to hit the 34 week exponential moving average while the RSI Indicator approaches the 50 line. Gold fell to the BB mid-line on Friday as the RSI approached the 50 line. Black rays off of the 2008 top show that Gold has been bottoming at each black line extended over the “last top.” Gold reached that juncture on Friday. We might see Gold weakness early next week, but we expect the basic relationship to hold. Near this point in the 70’s Gold Chart, an imminent bottom produced a sharp rise.

REVIEW OF OUR EXPECTATIONS

1) A major bottom for the PM stock indices is now in place as we laid out for subscribers (see HERE for subscription details) early in the week of August 8^th based on the fractal relationship to 1979.

2) Price and the technical Indicator readings for the PM Stock Indices continue to track the 1970’s with much higher prices expected in the intermediate-term. Per the 70’s PM Stock Model we expect this run to be the first, and smallest, of 3 momentum runs to come for the PM stock indices over the next few years. The mid-900s appear to be a realistic target for the HUI Index into year-end, or into early 2012.

3) We have reached the point in the cycle where leverage returns to the PM stocks with a vengeance per the late 1970s charts.

4) The fundamentals for Gold, Silver, and the PM Stocks could never be better. In fact, the Fed’s announcement this week was read as “deflationary”, where in reality it screamed, “We must launch an accelerated program of Dollar Inflation, and soon!”

5) Gold has now corrected in a very similar time sequence to the late 70’s, though the depth of the correction has been deeper over the last 2 days. Current Gold price relationships to the Bollinger Band mid-line and 34 EMA line suggest that an intermediate-term bottom is likely due this coming week. Such a bottom would fit the 70’s model nicely.

6) The US cannot pay its “regular bills” and interest on its debt, based on its current cash flow, much less cover other important needs that are growing astronomically. We now depend on the Fed printing an accelerating number of Dollars. This is what QE is - pure debt monetization that devalues the US Dollar aggressively. For the U.S. economy, it is either “print or die.” We expect that the Fed will print while acting like they have some choice in the matter other than a total Deflationary Depression. This fact has been true since early last decade.

7) The Fed generally appears to prefer to see the prices of Gold, Silver, and the Commodities correct to create overhead resistance on the charts before they announce Dollar Inflation moves. That is probably what was intended via the announcement at their special 2-day meeting creating the exaggerated fall in the PM sector this week - coupled with the usual sharp weakness going into Gold and Silver options expiration, next Tuesday.

8) With the big funds ending the long Gold/ short PM stock ratio trade, the PM stocks should be heavily supported after this bottom is complete.

9) The long-term PM Stock Model from the 70’s suggests that we will be entering the “sweet spot” of a 3^rd Wave advance as soon as this correction is over.

10) Our upside targets for Silver for this run into late 2011/ early 2012 of $52 to $56 should be achievable for silver, with $58 to $62 as real possibilities.

11) We still expect all of our intermediate upside price objectives for Gold to be reached by late this year, or early next. We expect the next run in Gold to reach the $2250 level and $2500 level before a higher run takes us up to $3,000 Gold, or higher.

12) The recent exaggerated decline in the PM sector will likely act like pulling and letting go of a huge rubber band in terms of how the PM sector will advance after this correction ends.

13) An end of the aggressive and accelerating course of US Dollar Inflation at this time by the Fed would create a deflationary depression that would dwarf that of the 1929 era yet the Fed has gained the right from Congress to inflate to infinity if necessary. That right is the major difference between today and 2008 when nobody could foresee the Fed moving to aggressive Dollar Inflation via debt monetization after they blew out the banking multiplier loan system of Dollar Inflation. Debt monetization, QE, is a more permanent form of Dollar Inflation that cannot easily be reversed, thus the Dollar Devaluation via QE will be mostly permanent leaving a more permanent high price of Gold when it is all over.

14) We believe that we lie at a “load the boat moment” in this historic Gold and Silver bull for Gold, Silver, and the PM stocks.

Summary

1. The mid-900s appear to be a realistic target for the HUI Index into year-end, or into early 2012.

2. $52 to $56 should be achievable for silver, with $58 to $62 as real possibilities, by late 2011/ early 2012

3. The next run upward in Gold to the $2250 level followed by $2500 with the potential for $3,000, or a bit higher, is now on the radar screen for late this year, or early next.
Source: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1317000203.php

Seminar Pengurusan Kewangan dan Konsultan Kewangan

2011-09-21T12:21:00.003+08:00

Seminar Pengurusan Kewangan dan Konsultan Kewangan akan diadakan oleh syarikat Smart Planner Biz Svc.

Anda akan didedahkan mengenai pengurusan kewangan komprehensif dan peluang kerjaya dalam bidang pengursan kewangan.

Tarikh: 1 Oktober 2011
Masa: 9.00 pagi - 10.30 pagi
Tempat: No. 35-1-1A, Jalan Medan PB2B, Seksyen 9, Bandar Baru Bangi 43650 Selangor.
(atas Nissan showroom)
Bayaran: Percuma

Sila daftar untuk pengesahan kehadiran melalui emel: norazmi88@yahoo.com atau telefon 012-6556250.

Tempat terhad kepada 20 orang sahaja.

GFMS sees gold price spiking above $2,000/oz before year-end

2011-09-19T10:06:00.000+08:00

In its newly released Gold Survey, specialist gold consultancy, GFMS, expects gold to spike above $2,000 in the current year with gold investment jumping by more than 25%.

Author: Jan Harvey
Posted: Thursday , 15 Sep 2011
LONDON (Reuters) -
Gold prices are likely to break through $2,000 an ounce by year-end to new record highs, metals consultancy GFMS said in a report on Thursday, as inflation pressures in Asia and debt concerns in the West lead to a recovery in investment demand.
While investment was soft in the early part of this year, jewellery purchasing held up remarkably strongly as prices climbed to records, the company said, while central banks added to holdings and scrap supply remained muted.
World investment in gold is forecast to jump by more than a quarter year-on-year to 1,069 tonnes in the second half, largely on the back of soaring bar demand, and could push the market significantly higher.
"Apparently low investment figures were very much a first-quarter story," said Neil Meader, research director at GFMS. "As soon as that Western disinvestment stops, you then have investment coming back at a time when the jewellery market is still strong and scrap is not doing a huge amount."
"Throw in a couple of hundred tonnes of official sector purchases, and you get some quite interesting price pressures going on," he said.
A forecast for a hefty 43.5 percent year-on-year fall in implied net investment -- chiefly reflecting activity in exchange-traded funds, on COMEX and in over-the-counter trading -- was a reflection of profit-taking early in the year, Meader said.
But the low interest rate environment, poor confidence in paper currencies and concerns over sovereign debt are all still strong factors underpinning interest in gold. In the full year, world investment is seen rising 1 percent to 1,693 tonnes.
Selling out of exchange-traded funds in the first quarter of the year, when the major gold funds recorded the largest quarterly outflow on record, has been partly reversed, suggesting appetite for the products has recovered.
Bullion bar buying, which has been consistently strong this year, rose 43 percent in the first half and is expected to stay strong in the remainder of the year, with GFMS forecasting a further 8 percent rise in the second half.
"We have seen periods where ETF demand wasn't great, and to an extent that was due to some people shifting out of ETFs into allocated metal accounts, because that is a lower-cost vehicle for holding gold," said Meader.
"That phenomenon happens when you have new entrants in the market. The ETFs are very visible and easily understandable, and that attracts new entrants, but once they are more familiar with gold ... and if their positions build to a certain size, they may be in a position to switch into allocated metal."
CHINA, INDIA SNAP UP JEWELLERY
Meader said strength in jewellery fabrication, which rose 7.5 percent to 1,037 tonnes in the first half, masked a more complex picture for the largest single segment of gold demand.
The jump was concentrated in Asia, said GFMS, which was recently bought by Thomson Reuters. Excluding China and India, fabrication in the rest of the world fell 4 percent.
Indian demand climbed 52 tonnes, while Chinese buying increased by 40 tonnes. However, the high grades of gold used suggested that these purchases were made for investment purposes, rather than adornment, the firm said.
"The buying that we are seeing there is in essence a form of investment," said Meader.
"The stuff that is being bought is high-carat, low-margin jewellery that is being bought for investment purposes. Some of that is being bought because people want to lock in their purchase in advance of expected price gains. Other people are buying and selling jewellery almost on a speculative basis."
In the full year, jewellery fabrication demand is expected to climb 1 percent to 2,032 tonnes.
There was also persistent weakness in the volume of scrap gold being returned to the market, despite a rise in prices to a record $1,920.30 an ounce.
Scrap supply fell more than 7 percent in the first half to 752 tonnes. Forecasting an 11 percent climb in the second half, GFMS said prices were likely to have to climb back above $1,900 an ounce before significant scrap selling resumes.
Lower jewellery demand and higher scrap sales are likely to be an early indicator of a broad price correction, GFMS said.
Central banks increased their purchases in the first half of 2011 to 216 tonnes from 72 tonnes a year before. In the second half, GFMS predicts the official sector will buy another 120 tonnes, up from 5 tonnes the previous year.
On the supply side of the market, the company said it was inevitable that mine supply would reach record levels in 2011, with output seen rising 4 percent to 1,469 tonnes in the second half of the year.
(Reporting by Jan Harvey, editing by Jane Baird)
Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=135511&sn=Detail&pid=102055

2011-09-19T09:50:00.001+08:00

Gold is all about confidence in money and money systems

We are now moving to a point where there is a fundamental separation of money's role as a means of exchange and a measure of value, while gold has remained the preferred store of value through the ages.

Author: Gold is all about confidence in money and money systems
BENONI -
In 2000 gold stood at just below $300, and when the euro arrived it stood at just over €250. Confidence was nearly absolute in the U.S. dollar at the time and the currency the world's energy was priced in. The euro was about to be launched to replace currencies like the Deutschemark, the French Franc and the rest of Europe's currencies. Today and eleven years later, gold is standing six times higher than the level at the turn of the century, despite all attempts to keep it contained. Why?
HISTORY OF MONEY
Since the dawn of man people have needed money with which to exchange goods. Then it extended naturally to saving money for the day when times were difficult -times like winter and old age when no money was coming in. Money had to reflect a value that would hold until the day when there was a need to use savings. It therefore had to be sought after through the generations and not just at one particular point in time.
Because of man's inherent greed and distrust, the item that represented money had to be something desired throughout the ages. Before the motor car, oil had little value except to give light at night. Precious metals and their rarity served the purpose of money far better. By using gold and silver, one did not have to trust man nor put faith in his IOU's, which may or may not have value at the time it was necessary to change them back into money. With the fleeting nature of man, his businesses, his governments and even the changing wealth and power of his countries, there was little of permanent value that could last throughout the ages that could compete on so wide a global scale as precious metals. Gold is recognized in even the farthest foreign reaches of the world. Look back and count the number of governments there have been in history and count the times gold and silver represented money.
As man moved into the industrial ages the value of precious metal globally allowed the growth of the British Empire an empire on which the sun never set. As the power crossed the channel somewhere in the 20^th century gold still held rein in the entire world as money alongside silver (to a less significant extent). The principle that reinforced the enduring nature of money was that precious metals lay beyond the control of governments. But it did stifle the growth of the banking system. It highlighted any expansion of the money system and it highlighted the abuse of the ‘money printing presses' because it was a ‘value reference' for such money. It acted as a judge and control over national money.
ABANDONMENT OF MONEY BACKING
After the Second World War the power of the U.S., globally, had replaced that of Britain, which steadily shrank for the next 40 years. When it became clear that the dollar should be devalued, to reflect its declining value, the embarrassment that that would cause against the price of gold, was too much for global money systems see happen. So in 1971, when the link between the dollar and gold was cut there began a series of stated and unstated devaluations of the dollar against gold. To eliminate the embarrassment and loss of value together with the benefits of being the world's sole reserve currency, trust in gold was attacked. This attack lasted for the next forty years and saw the value of gold against currencies pulled back from $850 at its peak to $275 at its low. How could one then trust such a barbarous relic?
In those forty years the dollar ruled supreme, just as the power and influence of the U.S. did. The path blazed by the U.S. in removing the backing of gold from their money systems showed the way for all the world's governments. More than that, the breaking of the link to gold allowed the entire world to do the same and issue money against nothing at all, just a vague notion that somehow governments would honor all their obligations if a crisis occurred. Where one did see this trust broken and confidence in currencies disappear, the isolated and distant nature of the countries involved allowed the major nations to continue with the unbacked money experiment. It was only in 2007 that serious flaws in these experiments became apparent.
An integral part of the system based on unbacked money was the rise of a global banking system. This gave scope and depth to the economic growth that a world under the dollar could enjoy. The control and power that the U.S. could enjoy through USD dominance was greater than any empire before it could impose through military dominance alone. Better than that, the trade deficits they had seen undermine the dollar before that were now turned into a constant ‘tribute' on the rest of the world by printing money instead of earning it.
GOVERNMENT'S CAPACITY TO CONTROL MONEY
And here we are in 2011, looking at the second most important currency in this unbacked money system losing its name by the day. While governments will attempt to limit the collateral damage a default of Greece (and who else?) the contagion effect of the loss of confidence will run like an epidemic. In the end the very structure of the money systems will be questioned. As government management of their debt and other finances are seen to be lacking, as well as out of their control, confidence in the very system is in decay.
Whether unintended or intentional the three roles of money as seen by governments today conflict with each other and undermine their international value. These roles are...
1.    To encourage growth - Quantitative easing is designed to stem the effects of deflation and to allow a damaged banking system to continue to lend to the economy in the hope that business will expand because of the ease of plentiful liquidity. (Is that happening?) The use of the supply of money to either expand or contract the economy undermines its ability to be a measure of value of business, assets or an economy.
2.    Dollar hegemony is designed to permit the expansion of the global economy with the U.S. as its hub. This it does irrespective of the state of the U.S. economy. Unfortunately, the state of the U.S. economy continues to dominate the value of the dollar, which conflicts with its role in the global economy. The fact that like the trunk of a tree, how all other unbacked currencies react to the state of the dollar, affects the competitiveness of those (subsidiary?) currencies in the global economy. As we have seen with the Swiss Franc, its value will be undermined if the U.S. and its dollar underperform other economies and currencies. Right now the Swiss National Bank is weakening the Swiss Franc.
3.    Price stability. Investors must ask themselves, when a currency must maintain price stability through its management by its central bank, does this mean that the overall asset values must be kept stable, or must the currency itself be kept stable so that it accurately reflects any changing value of assets? This answer to this question depends on the will of either government or central banks not on any reliable inherent value the currency may have.
It is impossible for these three functions of money to act in harmony with each other. Even worse the very nature of government, power and control, dictates that money act as the tool of government and its country, before it can act as a measure of value and secondly as a means of exchange.
We are now moving to a point where there is a fundamental separation of money's role as a means of exchange and a measure of value. The cost in terms of economic functioning, let alone well being, will be huge. In the past such turmoil has led to social unrest at the very least and the toppling of governments and occasionally civil war or economic catastrophe at the worst. The difference, this time, is that it is not simply a single country that will suffer but in this global world, whole economic zones will be badly affected. It is even possible that the entire global economy will be badly affected.
The commercial banking system has acted as the veins and arteries of the global economy. Sad to say their perception of their role has been to make more and more profit. This has conflicted with government objectives frequently, as it does today. That profit motive has been the equivalent of a hardening of the arteries. The decline of the world's leading bank shares worldwide this last week, gives us an indication that the process of financial breakdown may have started already.
Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=135465&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Gold: Air Raid Shelter in a Currency Blitz

2011-09-15T09:56:00.000+08:00

The Swiss Franc was supposed to be a safe haven – until it got pegged to one of the weakest currencies around...
AND SO the Swiss apparently got tired of the Franc being a 'safe haven' in a world of no such thing – so last week they hitched their paper currency to a much sicker inmate in the currency leper colony, the Euro, with a 1.20 upper limit, writes Gene Arensberg of GotGoldReport.
Then they made really, really sure that traders would believe it, causing a blitzkrieg exodus from the formerly safe paper to other monetary non-safety. The momentary mayhem resolved itself in a much cheaper (devalued) Franc – and a higher US Dollar in minutes, which stood in as the suddenly least sick member of the asylum.
One gets the impression that the wealth that has flown into US Dollars did so not because Dollars are more desirable than the Swiss Franc, but instead Dollars were merely a liquid place to run to in a time of crisis. US Dollars are the convenient foxhole in an air raid, with the foxhole occupants looking all around for somewhere better to escape to.
Dollars may be an earthen depression one can hide in temporarily, but some likely will travel to a better fortified air raid shelter in gold and silver. Trouble is that a great deal of wealth in Europe had migrated to the Swiss Franc precisely because it was 'safe.'
The message of this past week: "Think again, Mr. Wealth, no 'paper' and no bureaucrat or central bank promise is safe anywhere in the world. It was not in the past, it is not safe now, and certainly will not be safe looking ahead. In a global printing press currency war there are no saver prisoners taken, but also, eventually, no winners."
It may not sink in right away for everyone, but the desperate move by Switzerland to tie its monetary heritage to a possibly dying currency is yet one more nail in the post Bretton Woods floating fiat currency experiment coffin. Let's label this particular nail the capricious central banker nail and be glad we trust hard assets, not governments and central bankers.
It may not manifest immediately or even visibly at first, but Switzerland's action is very supportive of precious metals, especially of gold. The propensity of wealth still parked in the former banking powerhouse and all across the continent of Europe to Buy Gold just got a boost...in size.
Source: http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_swiss_franc_091220117

Swiss franc peg could pave the way for $2,000 gold

2011-09-08T09:50:00.003+08:00

The decision by the Swiss National Bank to peg its currency to the euro makes it a less attractive safe haven asset in the eyes of some, say analysts, which should be beneficial for gold

Author: Amanda Cooper and Jan Harvey (Reuters)
LONDON (Reuters) -
Switzerland's decision to peg the erstwhile safe-haven franc to the euro may finally give gold bugs the chance to see prices hit the once-unimaginable $2,000 an ounce mark, as the metal holds on track for its strongest annual rally in three decades.
The Swiss National Bank shocked global markets on Tuesday by saying it would buy unlimited quantities of foreign currencies to prevent the franc from rising above 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro , as it fights to contain the meteoric rise of its currency that threatens its exports and economy.
By buying euros in unlimited amounts to weaken the franc, the SNB is in effect putting more of its own currency into circulation, which threatens to trigger inflation.
It has also impacted the Swiss currency's status as a haven in its own right. While gold prices initially dipped as the move sparked a rush to liquidity in the form of other currencies such as the dollar, the SNB move is likely to lend firm support to gold in the medium term, analysts said.
"All in all, Switzerland is now on a quantitative easing policy in the foreign exchange markets," said Peter Fertig, a consultant for Quantitative Commodity Research. "If the Swiss franc is no longer a preferred safe haven due to intervention by the SNB, it will have (a positive) impact on the demand for gold."
Much of gold's rise this year - it is currently up 34 percent since January, on track for its largest yearly gain since 1979 - has been fuelled by cheap cash, provided chiefly by Western central banks battling debt piles large enough to derail global growth.
Even without the SNB, the deterioration in the euro zone debt crisis and the U.S. economy's inability to create a single job last month had already prompted many analysts to upgrade their gold price targets this year.
The $2,000 mark is now coming clearly into view -- though its sustainability at that level is unclear.
"$2,000 is just another number. There is no reason why it can't go through that, can't go a long way through that," said Natixis strategist Nic Brown.
"This explosion in liquidity creates demand for gold and creates the perception for gold prices to go higher," he said. "But ultimately, this is a bubble fuelled by liquidity."
Adjusted for inflation, gold already hit $2,000 an ounce in October 1980. In 1980s money, Tuesday's record high gold price of $1,920.30 an ounce is only worth $720.
But its rally is impressive nonetheless, with the metal set to end September with its twelfth quarterly gain in a row, its longest such winning streak in at least 30 years. Switzerland's move is just the latest piece of supportive news for the metal.
"I think gold is headed for $2,000. In theory, this could happen in a matter of days," said Frank McGhee, head of precious metals trading at Chicago's Integrated Brokerage Services.
"In reality, if this type of intervention action was taken and was ultimately seen to be ineffective, then the market will get new strength from that."
LAST SAFE-HAVEN?
Gold is part of the family of safe-haven assets, such as top-ranked government debt and, until now, the Swiss franc, so named for the reassurance they offer investors when markets become unstable.
With U.S. Treasuries stripped of their triple-A status in August by Standard & Poor's, German Bunds wavering as investors ponder the cost to the euro zone's richest economy of bailing out its neighbours, and the Swiss franc now shackled to the euro, gold is viewed by many to be the last safe haven standing.
"We've seen U.S. Treasuries have their reputation as 'risk-free assets' damaged, now we've got the Swiss franc subject to substantial and ongoing intervention by the SNB, so yes it does strengthen gold's claim as a safe-haven," said Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall.
"Prior to this announcement, I was among those who thought we needed to correct a bit from the $1,910 area and was looking for a short-term correction," he said.
"But I think given this, and in light of the ongoing pressures from the European interbank funding market ... I don't see any real barrier to gold moving above that $1,920 mark."
Aside from investor concern over the stability of the economies backing currencies such as the U.S. dollar, the euro, the pound or the yen, the growing desire among emerging market central banks to diversify their foreign exchange reserves has been a major supporting factor for the bullion market.
The most recent data from the International Monetary Fund shows the world's central banks have bought some 200 tonnes of gold this year, led by Mexico, Russia and South Korea. Investors in exchange-traded products backed by physical gold have increased their holdings by a net 75 tonnes in 2011.
The Swiss National Bank's "shock and awe" decision may prompt even more of this kind of investment.
But not everyone buys into the argument for gold as a refuge, with some investors, particularly those with shorter time horizons, pointing to recent volatility in the gold market as a reason to be wary. Gold traded in a greater than $300 range in August, its widest one-month spread in real terms since 1980.
"Safe means stability. What we're seeing in the gold market is anything but stability," said U.S.-based independent investor Dennis Gartman. "Anything that moves as gold has moved today -- from $1,920 all the way down to $1,870 in a course of five minutes -- is hardly safe."
"That does not mean gold will not continue to draw capital," he added. "It was high the last time it got to $1,900. Then it fell quickly to $1,700. It ceased being overbought at that time. It's not overbought now." (Additional reporting by Barani Krishnan in New York; editing by Keiron Henderson)
Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=134945&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Why invest in physical gold?

2011-09-07T11:13:00.001+08:00

Top 10 Reasons to Invest in Physical Gold

1) No other investment has the wealth preserving power of gold!
2) Gold should be part of every optimally diversified portfolio.
3) Physical (allocated) gold is the most secure way to invest in gold.
4) The current U.S. debt and trade crisis will continue to push gold prices up.
5) A tangible and liquid asset, gold is the only truly international currency.
6) Gold maintains its value through political and social upheavals, wars, and natural disasters.
7) Unlike paper currency, stocks and bonds, gold will never loses its intrinsic value.
8) Gold is an inflation-proof investment.
9) Gold will always be in demand, and demand is increasing.
10) Gold has always been, and will always be, the most legendary precious metal in the world.

Gold Stimulus

2011-09-07T09:48:00.001+08:00

Gold Stimulus

By Scott Silva

Editor, The Gold Speculator

Gold is trading above $1900/oz once again, pushed up by continuing financial turmoil in the Eurozone, weak US economic data and strong words from a voting member of the FOMC who reiterated his conviction that the Fed should continue its large scale monetary stimulus policies. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Charles Evans told a CNBC interviewer that “We need to do much more to increase the level of accommodation.” But Fed Chairman Bernanke did not announce a new policy at the annual Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In fact, the Chairman’s speech was underwhelming. The Fed is out of bullets, and Chairman Ben knows it.

Certainly, the Fed has very powerful monetary tools at its disposal. The Fed can set interest rates that banks charge each other for short term transactions, which influences the shape of the yield curve. Lower interest costs usually spur investment. The Fed can also provide liquidity to the general economy by buying US Treasury bonds and other long term fixed assets (Quantitative Easing). The Fed and most Keynesian economists believe Quantitative Easing can stimulate the economy in the same way Federal spending adds to aggregate demand. These monetarists believe that by adding Fed credit to member banks, more money becomes available to lend, demand deposits expand, along with economic activity. Since the financial meltdown of 2008, the Fed has maintained near-zero interest rates and added $2.3 Trillion in monetary stimulus credit. Despite these massive stimulus measures, 2^nd quarter US GDP growth has slowed to 1.0% (and 1^st quarter GDP has been revised down to 0.4%) while the unemployment remains above 9%. Zero net new jobs were added in August.

John Maynard Keynes attributed the deterioration of economic conditions despite muscular monetary stimulus measures to the “liquidity trap.” According to Keynes, this is the condition in which real interest rates cannot be reduced by any action of the central bank. The real interest rate cannot be reduced beyond the point at which the nominal interest rate falls to zero, however much the money supply is increased. The trap occurs when central planners are unable to promote investment by cutting real interest rates, even when rates are near-zero. Paul Krugman, the Princeton economist, believes that 70% of the world’s economies are in a liquidity trap.

We have seen this play out in recent history; the Fed should study what occurred in Japan. In 1991, the Bank of Japan hiked rates suddenly, bursting the speculative real estate and stock market bubble created by nearly twenty years of easy money. After asset values dropped by more than 60%, the Bank of Japan slashed rates to near-zero and implemented massive quantitative easing, setting up a classic liquidity trap. From 2001 to 2006 the Bank of Japan increased the monetary base by over 70 per cent. Japan’s economy ground to a halt and unemployment spiked. Stagflation took hold. The effects of the bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices bottoming in 2003. Japan’s “Lost Decade” is the direct result of central bank intervention and misguided monetary policy.

We know that increasing the money supply, in any interest rate environment, devalues currency in circulation. More money chasing the same assets drives prices up. Increased economic activity combined with declining real output can produce hyperinflation, as we have seen in extreme cases such as Weimar Germany, Argentina and Zimbabwe. Conversely, contractions in the money stock push prices (and wages) down. In the 1930’s the Fed reduced the money supply by 30% which deepened and extended the Great Depression.

To combat the current recession, the Fed has adopted a near-zero interest rate stance and injected trillions into the economy by purchasing US Treasury bonds and other fixed income securities, while extended unprecedented levels of Fed credit to member banks. Rather than turn the economy around, these measures have weakened the US Dollar and pushed prices up at the producer and the consumer levels. The CRB index, a broad measure of commodity prices climbed over 45% since the Fed made its first trillion dollar credit injection, then jumped another 35% after the Fed added $600 Billion to the money supply through it second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2). Since QE2 took effect, the US Dollar has dropped nearly 16% in value.

Low interest rates usually help stocks. But equities have become quite volatile as nervous traders quickly sell on any hint of bad economic news, and rush in to buy on any whiff of positive data, hoping to have finally found the bottom. As of today, the Dow is down 4.59% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is down 8.33% year-to-date. Treasury yields are at record lows, which are pushing fixed income investors out to the long end of the yield curve. After inflation and taxes, this asset class is underwater, too.

Increasingly, investors have turned to gold in the safe-haven trade. Gold has gained 38% year-to-date and 52% over the last 12 months. While the US Dollar has declined, some analysts believe gold could become a shadow currency against which all other currencies are evaluated as the world monetary base expands. Central banks around the world have become net buyers of gold bullion. J P Morgan Chase is now accepting gold as collateral for client accounts. And retail investors are pouring into gold as the means to diversify their holdings and hedge against economic uncertainty. It wasn’t long ago that $1000/oz gold was considered unthinkable. Today $2000/oz gold is within reach.

It is not likely that Washington will pivot abruptly away from its current economic azimuth. Wall Street is hoping for QE3, and it may get its wish. Gold and silver prices are telling us that the Fed will continue its near-zero interest regimen and will likely expand its bloated balance sheet in some novel and debilitating way, yet.

The simple truth is new government spending and more monetary expansion, even in the name of job creation, will not add permanent private sector jobs. More government spending only comes from higher taxes, more federal borrowing and the printing more paper money out of thin air. Every dollar of government spending comes out of the pockets of its citizens, which reduces economic activity. As we know from Proudhon, “Property is theft.” If higher taxes don’t ruin us all, inflation will.

So prudent investors must continue to act to defend their private property and protect their wealth. Investing in gold, the true sound money, is the way.

Investors from around the world benefit from timely market analysis on gold and silver and portfolio recommendations contained in The Gold Speculator investment newsletter, which is based on the principles of free markets, private property, sound money and Austrian School economics.

The question for you to consider is how are you going to protect yourself from the vagaries of the fiat money and economic uncertainty? We publish The Gold Speculator to help people make better decisions about their money. Our Model Conservative Portfolio gained 66.7% in 2010, and 55% for 1Q2011.

Source: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1315333300.php

“With immediate effect”

2011-09-07T09:43:00.000+08:00

September 6, 2011
Cairo, Egypt
Holy Red Screen, Batman! If you haven’t seen the news, the Swiss National Bank has just announced that it is putting a ceiling on the franc’s appreciation against the euro… effectively abandoning its economic sovereignty and putting its future in the hands of woefully corrupt and incompetent bureaucrats.
On the news, the franc fell off a cliff, dropping almost 10% INSTANTLY. Gold priced in Swiss francs jumped from 1497 to 1620 per troy ounce, all in about 45 seconds.
Precious metals are now all alone as the only forms of sound money that are truly safe havens.
Just 6-weeks ago on July 27th, in a letter entitled “Should I buy gold at its all-time high”, I wrote:
“Even stronger currencies like the Swiss franc have limits to their appreciation. At some point, the Swiss National Bank will impose capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency. . . [Y]ou’ll probably feel like a sucker for not buying gold at $1600 when you still had the chance.”
Since then gold has soared roughly 20%, and as of this morning, the SNB has imposed capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency.
This is just the beginning.
The Swiss government has basically told the world that they will print as much money as it takes, and buy up as much crap sovereign debt as they can, to competitively devalue the currency.
This essentially puts Switzerland in the same sinking boat as Italy, Greece, and Portugal… with one key difference: Switzerland has 0% interest rates.
In other words, you can now borrow in francs at 0% and buy government-backed euro garbage yielding 5%, 10%, 30%…. with absolutely no downside currency risk.
Here’s a practical example you can do– open a FOREX trading account and borrow Swiss francs at 0.5%. Buy the EURCHF cross and simply hold euro cash, paying 0.65%. At 100:1 leverage (quite common in FOREX trading), that translates into a 15% return simply for HOLDING CASH with no downside currency risk.
It’s free money, courtesy of the Swiss National Bank. I’m just waiting for the next wave of margin hikes. Needless to say, this is utter madness and will absolutely hasten the end game for Europe.
A few other points to make:
1) Big Swiss exporters like Novartis and Nestle are dancing a jig right now as this will surely boost their sales in the short-term. Also, banks in Switzerland and Austria who had heavy exposure to Eastern Europe are breathing a sigh of relief right now.
You see, Swiss interest rates have traditionally been lower than in Europe’s emerging economies. For example, many Hungarians took out mortgage loans in Swiss francs because the borrowing rate was so much cheaper.
Once the Swiss franc began to rise, however, borrowers had a difficult time paying back the loan; suddenly their mortgage payment and balance were much higher than before, and default rates soared.
Banks in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland who wrote most of the loans were sitting on huge potential losses… and this destruction to the financial system has been mitigated thanks to today’s move. I have to imagine this had some influence in the decision.
2) For all the talk of a pullback in gold, this is only further reason for a rise in precious metals. It’s true that nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line, but given that the world just lost nearly its last remaining safe haven currency, there are few other asset classes to turn to.
3) Markets are not functioning properly. Competitive devaluation means that governments are all striving to out-print each other… Europe is printing as much as they can to bail out the PIIGS, Switzerland just signed up to join then, Japan and China are not far behind, and QE3 is set to launch soon in America.
With so much money sloshing around the financial system, there is absolutely no sense of value anymore; people cannot invest with confidence given all the massive bureaucratic intervention.
4) In the Swiss National Bank’s brief statement, they said “With immediate effect, [the SNB] will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”
The three key words here are ‘WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT’. This is just another example of a government making instant changes that pose dramatic risk over people’s lives and livelihoods.
Make no mistake, we can all wake up tomorrow to a new reality.
Source: http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/with-immediate-effect

Is Gold Near the Top?

2011-09-06T21:26:00.001+08:00

There are growing signs that gold is looking toppy. Yet most people are NOT overinvested...
WAY BACK in 2002 – and in 2003 (and 2004...) – my dad told me the following:

"Son, I'm behind you in everything you do...But there's no way I'm buying any gold."

This was his reason:

"Son, I bought gold Krugerrands in the late 1970s, and I'm still down on 'em 25 years later. Gold is never going up."

In the nearly two decades I've been analyzing investments, my dad bought just about everything I recommended. But he drew the line when I recommended gold in 2002, writes Steve Sjuggerud in his Daily Wealth email.
I thought, "Wow. Now this is what a bottom looks like...when even my dad doesn't trust me on this one."
Back then, the gold story was simple to me...
Gold is financial catastrophe insurance. When is catastrophe insurance the cheapest? When there hasn't been a financial catastrophe in decades. In the early 2000s, that's where we stood. So I recommended buying gold. It wasn't about being a gold bug. It was about buying something cheap.
Back then, my parents bought everything I recommended – except gold. And my in-laws were starting to do the same. But they drew the line at gold, too. They thought I was nuts.
What really did it was when I started recommending Gold Coins in 2003. Cancellations to my newsletter started pouring in. The typical letter said, "Steve has always had outside-the-box ideas, but this Gold Coins garbage has gone too far."
I'd never seen such a hated asset class. I personally believed gold could absolutely soar. And readers who actually took my advice and bought my 2003-recommended MS-63 Saint-Gaudens Gold Coins made hundreds of percent profits.
Now, nearly a decade later, the situation is much different...
Gold has gone up 10 years in a row. My in-laws now have a big portion of their portfolio allocated to gold investments. And all this week, CNBC is having a special called "GOLD RUSH," where the commentators are in underground gold mines in South Africa.
A decade ago, you could hardly get a quote for gold on CNBC or Yahoo Finance. Today, gold quotes are on the front page.
If you want to make hundreds of percent on an investment, you have to buy it for pennies on the Dollar, when nobody wants it. With a week-long gold special on CNBC, it's hard to say nobody wants it.
In short, it feels like we're closer to a top than a bottom in gold. On the other hand, the numbers we track tell us we might not be at the top yet, because most people are NOT overinvested in gold.
The details are complicated. But the basic thought is simple: People are watching gold go up, like spectators watching from the sidelines. They are not active participants...yet.
Colleague Chris Weber explained the situation best recently:

This kind of market [in gold] is the dream of an investor like me. A bull that is so quiet and so looked down upon by most people...If you are just coming on and are hesitating to put too much of your wealth in the area, I can say without worry that there is still a lot of room, and time, left.

I believe Chris is right. There is more upside. It sure doesn't feel like the real estate boom, or the dot-com boom yet, when EVERYBODY is in. That's when we're at the top.
Gold will certainly have extreme corrections. On its march from $35 to $850 an ounce in the 1970s (peaking in January of 1980), gold lost HALF its value multiple times. But I don't believe the top is in yet.
Source: http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_price_090220119

Governments increasingly buying gold

2011-09-06T08:43:00.000+08:00

Governments increasingly buying gold

Venezuela's decision to retain 100% of its gold production could turn out to be a rather prudent investment decision and one other nations come to copy, says Julian Phillips, and it could have a cumulative impact on global supplies of the metal

Author: Julian Phillips
JOHANNESBURG -

Venezuelan gold mining companies had until recently been forced to sell 50% their gold production to the government for their reserves. This was increased last month to 100%. It accompanied President Chavez's nationalization of the mining industry. This lays the country open to the seizure of foreign-based assets belonging to Venezuela, including all its gold. To guard against this Chavez has ordered that all the country's gold held in foreign vaults be repatriated back to the country. The tonnage involved is 365 tonnes. This is a huge amount. While it seems political opportunism guided the decision, it was an excellent investment move. In the ground inside Venezuela sits around 1,000 or more tonnes of gold, which over time will take Venezuela's gold reserves above those of Switzerland, once it is mined.
Other Countries Following
This is a small country, whose exports are 95% oil. It can sell these to any nation including China, ignoring any Western consequences. At the same time it is switching out of the euro, pound and the U.S. dollar into the BRIC nation's assets. In doing so it is cutting itself off from a decaying flat growth, debt-bound developed world and investing in growth and gold. This leaves the country's reserves a growing portfolio, dependent for its cash flow on the evergreen cash cow, oil. Small countries may be seeing the wisdom of Venezuela's reserves. They may be tempted to follow that example.

We said this in one of our daily reports...

Kazakhstan, a relatively small producer, announced that its own local gold production would now be bought by the government for its gold reserves.
We have long believed that China, to a greater or lesser extent, has been doing this for some years now. Its local production is rising by the year and it's the world's largest gold producer now at well over 300 tonnes.
Russia has been buying local and foreign production as well for years now.

Taken individually the tonnages being talked of may not individually have a huge effect on the gold price; taken collectively, however, a different story emerges. At this moment in time we are talking of the above countries local production in excess of 550 tonnes in total. When you consider that world gold production is around 3,000 tonnes per annum, 550 tonnes is 18% of annual gold production. Is this the end of the story? Who can tell, but the pattern is tempting to all gold-producing nations when the nature of their reserves is too dependent on the U.S. dollar, a currency in decline.
What Next?
Some say see the moves of the small countries to be consistent with the political unpopularity of the nations involved. Some may look at the larger countries doing this as simply diversifying their reserves. From a prudent, responsible aspect such moves ensure a good supply of gold into reserves at market prices without causing the gold price to react to every purchase when discovered. The net effect is simply to lower the volume of supplies to the world market. Please note too that the four gold producing nations we have mentioned are seeing a growth in their production on an annual basis. Many other producers are seeing their gold production decline. This must result in the percentage of gold production going straight into a nation's reserves rising while the amount available to growing demand is declining.
Imagine if Australia or South Africa followed suit. With the price of gold rising and the value of the U.S. dollar falling, it makes good financial sense to hold onto the gold being produced locally. Imagine if Britain had not sold its gold at the lowest price seen in nearly 35 years [$275] and held onto it until now. The six-fold rise in its value would be a welcome development in these darkening economic days.
It's getting increasingly difficult to give reasons why gold-producing nations should not retain their locally-produced gold and even more difficult to explain why they should sell that gold for U.S. dollars.
Conditions Compel Leading Nations to Follow
Will other nations follow suit? We think that they will, but would hesitate to say when or who. Central Bankers feel more advantage to paper money as do politicians. Gold comes with a monetary discipline that is anathema to them. But we are sure that where a central banker finds his nation dependent on the hard currencies of the world, the temptation may prove far too much.
But even the U.S. and Canada -should their currencies lose importance and position in the global economy-will no doubt follow suit. When? Certainly the tipping point will be when the Chinese Yuan ascends the stage as a global reserve currency or when oil producers accept most currencies in payment of their oil. Or it may be when the stimulant of money creation becomes too much for the surplus nations to accept. We are closer than you think.
Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=134786&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Ejen jual beli emas

2011-09-06T08:41:00.000+08:00

Berminat untuk mengetahui perniagaan emas dan ingin menjadi ejen syarikat kami? Sila emel ke smartplanner88@yahoo.com atau hubungi Azmi 0137786250 untuk maklumat lanjut.

Jual Emas 999.9 anda pada kami

2011-09-06T08:39:00.000+08:00

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