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Still Playing The Name Game (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Fri, 25 Sep 2009 00:00 GMT

Macedonia's President Georgi Ivanov has said the Athens-Skopje UN talks over Macedonia's official name have made vital progress, though a final resolution still seems distant. While the details of the Macedonian response to the latest set of ideas presented by UN mediator Matthew Nimetz are not known, local media speculated that Macedonia had largely accepted Nimetz's idea to add the term 'Northern' to the state's official name, Republic of Macedonia. Greece, in its official response, had expressed some complaints about the

Bosnia (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:00 GMT

Having failed to reach an agreement on forming a new government and sorting out the central government, Bosnia's two state entities are now seeking to issue bonds in a bid to cover the financing gap. The Republika Srspka has indicated that it will issue a BAM120mn 10-year domestic bond in November, having previously secured buyers for its first bonds earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the Muslim-Croat Federation is planning its debut bond worth BAM65mn, which is expected to be issued at the end of September and expire in March 2012. Even if there is sufficient demand for the bonds, we

Slovakia (Emerging Europe Monitor - Central Europe & Baltic States)

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 00:00 GMT

On June 22, Slovakia's parliament approved the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) following two days of debate, with 118 deputies in favour of the bill, 20 against, 5 abstaining and one deputy not voting. Slovakia will provide EUR659mn in cash contribution and will contribute EUR5.8bn in total to the ESM, out the ESM's total EUR700bn financial firepower. We regard the development as positive, affirming our belief that Prime Minister Robert Fico is serious in his commitment towards the EU and his desire to remove Slovakia's image of a 'troublemaker'.

Slovakia (Emerging Europe Monitor - Central Europe & Baltic States)

Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT

Slovakia's Government Office and Economic Ministry websites were brought down on January 28 following an alleged hacking attempt attributed to the Anonymous movement as a demonstration of its disapproval of the International Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement. Following the attack on the site, local news sources reported that the Freedom and Solidarity party expressed a negative stance towards the new agreement, announcing that if the agreement violates basic individual rights and freedoms, they will not support it. The Slovak Democratic and Christian Union and Christian Democratic Movement have also expressed an interest in discussing the measure.

Bulgaria (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 00:00 GMT

Public dissatisfaction with the government in Sofia has grown in recent months as protests have become increasingly numerous. Doctors have protested budgetary shortfalls and the poor state of Bulgaria's under-funded health system by withholding services in October while students and lecturers also protested against proposed education budget cuts under the government's fiscal austerity plans. While we do not see a direct challenge to political stability in the near-term, with public dissatisfaction rising, increasing the prospect of further public unrest, this raises the possibility of a near-term downgrade to our short-term political risk rating.

Unrest Could Prompt Early Election (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Thu, 24 Feb 2011 00:00 GMT

Renewed ethnic violence and an opposition boycott of parliament pose a significant threat to political stability in Macedonia. The Social Democrat (SDSM) walkouttriggered by the courts' decision to freeze of the bank accounts of the anti-government A1 television networkmarks another low for political dialogue in parliament. Meanwhile, clashes between ethnic-Albanian and ethnic-Macedonian groups could intensify in the run up to the controversial national census. Greater political and social unrest increase the chances of early elections, in our view, with the ruling VMRO-DPMNE party still strong favourites to renew its

Romania (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Mon, 19 Sep 2011 00:00 GMT

President Traian Basescu has stated that Romania cannot afford to buy F16 fighter jets from the US unless a long-term financing solution is offered. In March 2010 Romania's High Council for National Defence approved the purchase of 24 used F16 fighters for US$1.3bn, but this was blocked by Prime Minister Emil Boc on cost grounds in August 2010. Basescu, who has discussed the issue with US Ambassador Mark Gitenstein, believes that an annual cost in the region of US$300mn is affordable. A purchase of F16s would bolster Romania's standing within NATO and further solidify relations with the US, in our

Slovak-Hungarian Tensions Rise (Emerging Europe Monitor - Central Europe & Baltic States)

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:00 GMT

Following a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany in the Slovak border town of Komarno on November 14, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Hungarian radical groups were exporting fascism to his country, in addition to accusing the government in Budapest of not doing enough to restrain the extremists. Fico's comments came shortly after Slovak police detained 20 far-right activists on allegations of promoting fascism, after they marched through the town of Kralovsky Chlmec wearing Nazi-era insignia.

Mongolia (Emerging Europe Monitor - Russia and CIS)

Fri, 31 Dec 2010 00:00 GMT

The Mongolia government is reported to have abandoned plans to use contract miners to develop the massive Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit in the south of the country, creating a major opportunity for foreign investors looking to access Mongolia's mining boom. According to media sources, the government is now offering strategic investors a chance to invest in and develop part of the mine, with bidders from Japan and South Korea thought to be among the leading candidates. Investors must submit their proposals by January 17.

NATO Allowed In (Emerging Europe Monitor - Russia and CIS)

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 00:00 GMT

A transit corridor for NATO non-military cargo to Afghanistan has been allowed by Tajikistan, as announced by Rear Admiral Mark Harnitchek of the US Transportation Command on Tajik state television. With increased attacks by Pakistani militants on supply convoys, the US is looking for expand its supply routes for its troops to Afghanistan. This will go some way to bolster relations between Tajikistan and the US, as well as paving the way for further cooperation with euro-Atlantic institutions.

Unemployment Finally Falling (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Thu, 20 May 2010 00:00 GMT

The Croatian Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor stated that her party would enforce key reforms to the economy over the medium term, irrespective of the negative effective it would have on her party in the lead up to parliamentary elections in late 2011. The reforms are set to include cuts to the public sector workforce, large-scale privatisations, and widespread tax reforms. We believe the reforms bode well for the Croatian economy over the long term.

Cracking Down On Corruption? (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT

Providing further publicity for the Bulgarian government's anti-corruption drive, the Sofia City Court sentenced Asen Drumev, the former head of the State Agricultural Fund, to four years imprisonment for misappropriation of EU farm aid. Specifically, Drumev was found guilty of approving illegal contracts which resulted in the loss of around BGN48mn in official aid. While the conviction is supportive of the ruling GERB party's pre-election pledge to bring public officials to justice, we caution that the government has so far failed to introduce policies which would disincentivise corruption going forward.

Signs Of Slippage? (Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe)

Tue, 04 May 2010 00:00 GMT

Romanian Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu stated on May 2 that Bucharest had missed some of the targets which the IMF had set as conditions for its EUR20bn loan program. The government's progress on meeting these conditions will come under closing scrutiny during the IMF mission to the capital, which is due to conclude on May 7. While we expect the government to push forward with fiscal consolidation, we warn that criticism from opposition parties, as well the public, still pose a significant risk to the IMF's bailout program going

Turkmenistan (Emerging Europe Monitor - Russia and CIS)

Mon, 24 Oct 2011 00:00 GMT

Turkmenistan welcomed a Czech delegation headed by chairman of the Committee on Education, Science, Culture, Human Rights and Petitions of the Senate of the Czech Republic Jaromir Ermar on October 22 in an attempt to boost inter-parliamentary relations. A series of meetings were held in hopes of expanding relations both 'through bilateral cooperation and within Turkmenistan-EU dialogue'. We view this development within the context of both Turkmenistan and the Czech Republic eager to diversify energy relations away from Russian dominance and as talks continue to agree specifics on the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which will deliver Turkmen gas to Europe.

Slovakia (Emerging Europe Monitor - Central Europe & Baltic States)

Fri, 21 Oct 2011 00:00 GMT

We have downgraded our short-term political risk rating for Slovakia this month to 72.7 out of 100, from 75.2 in September. The main reason for this is high political uncertainty following the government's collapse on October 12. At the time of writing details were lacking regarding the caretaker government's capacities. This is particularly important given that the 2012 budget has yet to be approved in parliament. We see scope for the centre-left opposition party Smer to attempt to water down any proposed fiscal austerity measures or attempt to delay passage of key legislation ahead of March's early election. This would