http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com Emerging Europe Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2013, Business Monitor International Ltd Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT Sat, 14 Sep 2013 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator We have revised down our forecast for consumer price inflation in Azerbaijan to 2.9% year-on year (y-o-y) by end-2013 and 4.1% y-o-y by end-2014, from 3.7% and 5.0% previously. Moderating domestic consumption have eased demand-pull pressures, while lower food import prices due to good harvests in the Caucasus and Central Asia are set to ensure supply-side inflationary pressures remain subdued over the course of 2013 and into 2014. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164376/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Azerbaijan.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT BMI View: Compared to recent years Moldova's trade deficit is set to remain relatively stable in 2013, widening only slightly due to a robust rebound in economic activity drives up import sales. As a result, we forecast a current account shortfall of 8.4% of GDP in 2013, rising to 9.4% in 2014. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164375/Demand-To-Widen-Current-Account-Deficit.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT The President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov has stated that he will step down as leader of the Turkmenistan Democratic Party ahead of parliamentary elections in December. The move comes as a shock, with Berdimuhamedov having led the party since 2006, taking over after the death of Saparmurat Niyazov, his predecessor as president and party leader. Berdimuhamedov stated "the president of a country should not be a member of any party." The Democratic Party was previously the Turkmen wing of the Soviet Communist Party, and up until 2012 was the only party in Turkmenistan, and has now been joined in the political ring by the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. The Democratic Party has some 190,000 members, the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs around 2,000. Both parties are set to contest parliamentary elections in December, although international observers have voiced concerns surrounding the transparency and freedom of the poll. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164374/Turkmenistan.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT We have revised down our forecast for the main Georgian policy rate for 2013 and 2014, from 3.75% and 4.75%, to 3.25% and 4.00% respectively. The National Bank of Georgia cut the policy rate by a further 25 basis points (BPS) in August, bringing the rate to 3.75%, from 5.25% at the start of the year. With the country still suffering from prolonged deflation the central bank has room for manoeuvre in its monetary policy, and we expect to see further cuts in an attempt to boost domestic demand, as well as improve export attractiveness through a weaker lari. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164373/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Georgia.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT We forecast Uzbek consumer price inflation to tick up during the course of 2013 and into 2014, to 11.1% by end-2013 and 12.5% in 2014, from 10.4% in 2012. Rising domestic consumption is driving demand-pull pressures, while the ever increasing cost of bread and fuel, which have caused an uptick in social unrest, has exacerbated supply-side pressures. Anecdotal evidence from Uzbekistan continues to suggest that actual inflation is well above that which is published in official statistics bulletins. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164372/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Uzbekistan.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT Zurab Kharatishvili, who resigned from his post at chairman of the Georgian Central Election Commission on August 12, has stated that he is to found a new centrist political movement. He has not said whether he intends to run in the October 27 presidential election, calling media speculation 'premature'. The deadline for submitting registration papers for the vote is September 7. Even if Kharatishvili does decide to stand, we do not believe this will pose a threat to Georgian Dream coalition candidate, Giorgi Margvelashvili, who is riding high in opinion polls, well ahead of the main opposition United National Movement's candidate, David Bakradze. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164371/Georgia.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT On August 18 various Azerbaijani opposition groups held a mass rally in support of presidential candidate Rustam Ibragimbekov on the outskirts of the capital, Baku. The event, which had been sanctioned by the government, attracted thousands of individuals discontented with the rule of President Ilham Aliyev. According to organisers and political activists, police detained 11 of the attendees and public transport around the site was allegedly restricted in an attempt to limit numbers. Ibragimbekov, an Oscar-winning screenwriter, was selected in July as a candidate for a number of opposition political parties and civil action groups, jointly known as the National Council of Democratic Forces. We still expect Aliyev to emerge victorious given the opaque and allegedly corrupt nature of Azerbaijani elections. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164370/Azerbaijan.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili’s dilemma over whether to continue in his current position is likely to overshadow the October presidential election. Ivanishvili has previously stated he would step down following the vote, but has yet to name a successor, or even confirm his departure. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164369/PMrsquo;s-Uncertain-Future-To-Eclipse-Presidential-Election.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT POLITICAL RISK - Judicial Reform Ambitious The EU is to provide funds and technical assistance to support broad justice reform in Moldova over the next three years. The country's outgoing EU Delegate Dirk Scheubel said the reform would be vital for further improving relations between Brussels and Chisinau. Strengthening the rule of law and tackling corruption in the judiciary are key goals for the government and would greatly benefit the country's investment climate. However, while we believe the restoration of a government following the political crisis earlier in the year will see further progress, we expect further disruption and renewed uncertainty as the 2014 legislative election approaches. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164368/Moldova.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT We forecast consumer price inflation in Turkmenistan to fall to 5.8% by end-2013, from 6.5% in 2012 on the back of declining food prices reducing supply-side pressures, while moderating domestic consumption ensures that demand-side pressures remain subdued. In 2014 we forecast a slight uptick in consumer price inflation, to 6.0% by year-end as private consumption ticks up in line with the country’s improving growth prospects. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164367/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Turkmenistan.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT The Uzbek government has shifted its focus from not only suppressing any dissident political activity, but also ensuring that Uzbek music corresponds to certain ‘values’ specified by the Culture and Sports Ministry. The department has announced a ban on what it defines as ‘meaningless’ music that does not ‘praise the motherland’. A number of popular bands and singers have had their performing licenses revoked and their music condemned as ‘they contradict our moral heritage and mentality.’ This move is one of many attempts by the government to control popular culture in Uzbekistan and reduce any Western or liberalising influences. The ruling does not apply to President Islam Karimov’s daughter, Gulnara, who also has a domestic singing career. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164366/Uzbekistan.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT BMI View: Industrial activity continued its strong recovery this year, expanding 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H113 (compared to just 0.3% at the same point in 2012). The manufacturing sector grew by 8.1% y-o-y over the same period. The figures are in line with our view of a robust rebound compared to the stagnation of 2012, though given the positive data in the first half of the year, we have raised our end-2013 target to 7.0%, from a previous 5.0%. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164365/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Moldova.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT BMI View: Inflation in Estonia will continue to resist the strong disinflationary trend seen in Baltic and Central European countries due to stronger wage growth and a tighter labour market. However, real GDP growth has slowed in H113, which should contribute to easing demand-pull pressures. While growth in the harmonised index of consumer prices fell to 3.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in July, from 4.1% in June, the producer price index showed a more substantial decline, falling from 6.0% y-o-y to 3.5%. We forecast inflation to continue easing in H213 and to average 3.3% in 2013. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164345/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Macroeconomic-Forecast.html Fri, 23 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT Macedonia's public finances have displayed some fiscal slippage on the part of the government in the opening months of 2013. On a 12-month rolling basis, the fiscal deficit widened to the equivalent of 5.1% of GDP by March, based on our calculations. This marks a substantial widening of the nominal fiscal deficit since 2012, when the government posted a 3.9% of GDP budget deficit. Negative revenue growth and a continued expansion in expenditures (6.5% year-on-year in the year-to-date) have been the main cause. In June, the government shortfall narrowed somewhat on a rolling basis, coming in at 4.9% of GDP. Measuring MKD13.8bn in H113, we forecast the deficit to widen to MKD23.6bn, or 4.9% of GDP, this year. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164344/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Macedonia.html Wed, 14 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT Gradually improving economic conditions in Europe are helping to keep Lithuania's 12-month rolling current account in surplus. While we acknowledge that there are upside risks to our forecast for a full-year deficit of 0.8% of GDP in 2013, we believe that a return to deficit is unavoidable, as the domestic economy gathers momentum over the coming years. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/164343/Current-Account-Surplus-In-2013-Increasingly-Likely.html Wed, 14 Aug 2013 00:00 GMT