Cultural notions of time and reliability are different and as a result it is a challenge to schedule meetings. Calls are by far the preferred method of communication as people like the human interaction. On the upside, time is fluid and people are generally flexible. If they are late, they smile – no need for an excuse. But overall, this attitude makes it a challenge to commit to a time and date though, let alone keep a tight schedule.

But the Western business traveler (myself included) needs patience. After all, the country only emerged from a traumatic civil war a decade ago. Today, this is most obvious in the labor force where an entire generation did not receive the most basic schooling. This of course, presents various obstacles in everyday life.

But Angola’s pace of change is nothing less than remarkable. The city is bustling with commercial activity. Everywhere you look there are huge construction sites and office towers are rising into the sky.  Local bank branches are on every other corner.  The roads are packed at most times of day with a considerable amount of expensive cars. There are business people of all colors and races, with a definitive majority of Portuguese, Brazilian and Chinese. People are very friendly and approachable. They like to enjoy life, to celebrate. And so I was warned before coming to Luanda that I would get little sleep because at nighttime, “that’s when the real business deals are struck.”

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Turkmenistan: A closed, state-controlled economy undermines potential opportunities for investment in the market. Oil and gas production, plus investment in infrastructure and construction are the main growth drivers. This is very visible in Ashgabat, the capital, a city re-built in white marble to dominate the surrounding desert (see photo). Despite the wealth that the capital city tries so hard to demonstrate, opportunities for multinationals are limited by a small domestic market, high level of government control of the economy, opaque political decision-making, and import restrictions. Because of this, the country is unlikely to present significant opportunity for multinationals in the medium term.

Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan’s capital, Ashgabat, is impressive in its white marble buildings, but seems to be largely populated by policemen, rather than by regular Turkmen

Uzbekistan: With its 30-million-strong population and a history of industrialization, Uzbekistan should be the economic driver of the region. Instead, it is struggling with a barely-contained economic crisis. Hidden inflation makes the black-market exchange rate 30% higher than the official one, getting access to foreign currency is extremely challenging, and in some cases, illegal, and shortages plague the economy. A policy of import substitution means that getting goods into the market could involve working with corrupt individuals or breaking the law, and repatriating earnings can be next-to-impossible. Not to mention the very real risk of government expropriation. Not surprisingly, this is resulting in deep poverty visible at every step in the country. Whether social dissatisfaction with the economic failures of the government will ever turn into a push for political change, and whether such change will come peacefully or result in violence, is one of key questions facing Uzbekistan in the medium term. In the meantime, Uzbekistan will present an opportunity only for companies with an extremely high risk appetite.

Uzbekistan: Economic mismanagement has spurred poverty in Uzbekistan. Thousands of Uzbeks seek to work in Russia every year in search of higher salaries with which they support their families back home

Kazakhstan: The economic leader in the region, Kazakhstan is a natural extension of multinationals’ Russia presence. Its membership in the Customs Union with Russia and Belarus and its relatively open operating environment (Kazakhstan ranked 49^th in the World Bank Doing Business Survey in 2013) attract a growing number of Russian and multinational players. Almaty, the biggest city, is brimming with flashy shopping malls and a middle class that is not unlike the one you may encounter in Russia’s biggest provincial cities. Yet, Kazakhstan’s relatively small (16 million) and dispersed population and large territory drive up transportation costs. Beyond Almaty and a few other big cities, average incomes are low, and the real addressable market may be as small as 5 million people. This makes it critical for multinationals to think carefully about the most efficient way to capture Kazakhstan without overspending in the market.

Kazakhstan: Demand for luxury goods is thriving in Kazakhstan’s biggest city, Almaty

To find out more about each of these markets, including which foreign companies are most advanced in Turkmenistan, what it takes to buy a car in Uzbekistan, and whether Kazakhstan can be a viable hub for Central Asia, listen to our podcast Notes From the Field: The Central Asia Business Landscape by clicking this link to access the iTunes store.

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Czech GSP: it gets worse - Financial Times Beyondbrics

“The Czech economy is unlikely to recover considerably until German growth picks up. The Czech Republic’s problems highlight the growing division between markets driven by domestic demand vs. by exports, with the latter likely to underperform. For more details on this trend, see FSG’s report Global Performance Drivers – Q1 2013.”
- Martina Bozadzhieva, Associate Practice Leader for Central and Eastern Europe

Joko Aims for June MRT Groundbreaking - The Jakarta Globe

“Companies should monitor the Jakarta MRT project since it will serve as a good proxy for Jokowi’s ability to get things done in the capital. If he cannot hit his self-imposed deadline for breaking ground in June or July, it will bode ill for the implementation of other difficult policies in Jakarta.”
- Adam Jarczyk, Associate Practice Leader for Asia Pacific Research

Mexico: Uphill battle joined in effort to restructure oil industry - Financial Times Beyondbrics

“This article illustrates the major hurdles president Peña Nieto faces in pushing through reforms to open the oil sector to foreign investment and private capital. Nevertheless, the article details the apparent resolve of the government to pursue the needed reforms.”
-Clinton Carter, Director of Research and Product Development for Latin America

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Competition

After having spoken to various businesses in the last three days, a common theme I am hearing from the ground revolves around competition. While there is much talk in the media about competition coming from other emerging market companies, notably Chinese, Indian and Brazilian, the issue in Sub-Saharan Africa seems far more nuanced than that. While we are producing a major research piece on the topic in due course, here are a couple of initial observations:

• Competition from other emerging market companies: This seems to be particularly relevant in the technology sector where Asian companies such as Lenovo and Samsung are rapidly gaining ground. In the consumer goods sector, competition from other emerging market companies is less pronounced with the exception of Brazilian products coming into Angola and Mozambique, as well as South African FMCG companies spreading across the continent. For companies selling high-value products in the industrial sectors (for example machinery and trucks) competition from other emerging market companies seems less dangerous. That’s because overall, African consumers seem to be willing to spend more money for products perceived to be of better quality and having a longer lifespan alongside an adequate servicing infrastructure.
• Competition from other MNCs: By far the biggest threat comes from the same competitors companies face in developed markets. As the continent is becoming a more prominent business destination – approximately US$50 billion of FDI will flow into the region in 2013, which is more than 350% higher than a decade ago – more MNCs are moving in and competition is  increasing. Now is the time to set up a local presence, gain rapid market share and a competitive advantage.
• Competition from counterfeit products: An often underestimated competitive threat comes from counterfeit products or trademark infringements. This impacts all sectors. While counterfeit products have undermined profits for many companies, it also has serious reputational implications if the counterfeit product breaks or even becomes a health hazard. This is a particular challenge in the healthcare sector.
• Competition from the grey market: A major threat for exporters comes from the grey market. As unauthorized distributors bring in products from neighboring markets to sell them at a cheaper price than the authorized distributor, the established distribution partnership suffers and profit margins erode.

Stay tuned for more valuable insights as I meet more companies on the ground…

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1. Country-Level Analysis Not Enough:

a. As the region matures and companies increase their focus on it, executives need to conduct in-depth provincial analysis in order to understand where the specific demand-side opportunities lie and where there is the ideal supply-side support

b. In a market where affordability is a key challenge faced by all MNCs, executives ought to conduct their opportunity analysis on a provincial basis, to focus their investments towards the top choices

c. While provincial data is not available for many indicators, companies can begin with macroeconomic analysis by looking at gross domestic product, per capita wealth, population, and some expenditure patterns

2. Keep Your Focus on the Hot Spots: 25% of the Provinces Hold 75% of the Wealth

a. Wealth in Southeast Asia remains highly concentrated thus companies looking to expand in the region should focus their efforts on the top-tier provinces, which make-up for more than 75% of the GDP of the entire region

b. Depending on the specific province, companies will have to adopt different tactics in order to access end customers, who are likely to have varying consumption patterns as a function of their location and source of wealth

c. Companies could also conduct consumption pattern studies to get a better idea of their expenditure habits (use expenditure or food vs. non-food figures)

*Source: Frontier Strategy Group Analysis; Individual Government Statistical Publications

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Today I spoke to a seasoned and very impressive South African executive running a 22.7 billion rand turnover FMCG company out of Johannesburg. He wants to remain anonymous but here is his advice to MNCs entering Sub-Saharan Africa:

1. Build strong partnerships: Value business relationships and continuously invest in them. Personal relationships are a key component of business success in the region.
2. Blend corporate culture with an entrepreneurial spirit: “Seize opportunity, if it presents itself. Even if the opportunity lies outside of a company’s core business competencies.” For example, acquiring a local business in a different space will enable a company to better understand the market to then move in with the core business at a later stage.
3. Believe in the long-term opportunity: The opportunity in individual African markets might seem quite small but, “the size of the prize might be big over a longer period of time. If you are not in the game now, it will only get more difficult.”
4. Find the right people to run your local operations: Make sure your managers fit in from a cultural perspective, and most crucially, make sure they and their families want to be in the market, “if the wife is not happy, it does not work.”

This last point was echoed by another executive from a leading South African industrial company who shared with me this Roman analogy which reflects his company’s talent strategy:

When in Rome…

One reason why the Roman Empire grew so large and survived so long – a prodigious feat of management – is that there was no railway, car, airplane, radio, paper or telephone. Above all, no telephone. And therefore you could not maintain any illusion of direct control over a general or provincial governor. You could not feel at the back of your mind that you could ring him up, or that he could ring you, if a situation cropped up which was too much for him, or that he could fly over and sort things out if they started to get in a mess.

You appointed him, you watched his chariot and baggage train disappear over the hill in a cloud of dust and that was that. There was, therefore no question of appointing a man who was not fully trained, or not quite up to the job; you knew that everything depended upon him being the best man for the job before he set off.

And so you took great care in selecting him; but more than that you made sure that he knew all about Roman government and the Roman army before he went out.

Stay tuned for more valuable insights as I meet more companies on the ground…

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Listen as Rich Leggett, CEO of FSG moderates a discussion with Dan Kornfield, Director of Strategic Research on the topic of global workforce planning.  Regional executives engaged in high-focus workforce planning outperform their peers in profitability and market share growth.  Hear highlights from FSG’s latest research in this field, with management lessons on identifying critical capability gaps, smarter hiring, redeploying the people you already have, and avoiding staff overstretch.

The full podcast is available for download here.

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India Said to Plan Completing FY14 Asset Sales by December – Bloomberg

“Is this really possible? A great indicator for executives to follow closely. The Congress Government’s performance on this front will not only have an impact on the elections of 2014 but will directly impact India’s ever widening budget-deficit. Asset sales are a quick and efficient way to raise revenues.”
- Shishir Sinha, Analyst for Asia Pacific Research

Azevêdo Enfrentará Ceticismo de Ricos, Diz Consultor - Estado de Sao Paulo [Portuguese]

“FSG’s Associate Vice President for Latin America Clinton Carter argues that incoming Director-General of the WTO Roberto Azevêdo will start his mandate with skepticism from the developed world and unrealistic expectations from the developing world, given the support he received from major developing countries that have been the least receptive to stronger pushes for free trade over the last decade.”
- Antonio Martinez, Senior Analyst or Latin America Research

Turkey is Investment Magnet outpacing Emerging Market Peers – Reuters

“Investment capital is flowing into Turkey as the market remains one of the regional bright spots in Central and Eastern Europe.”
-Sam Osborn, Senior Analyst for Global Analytics

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1. Regional Mindset With A Country Specific Focus

a. Appreciate National Differences: Companies should not expect to have similar experiences across this region; each individual country will require in-depth analysis due to its varying economic maturity and wealth

b. Adopt A Scalable Regional Strategy: Executives should adopt a regional mindset, developing a long-term expansion strategy that accounts for the country-level differences but simultaneously leverages upon synergies and creates scale

Understanding country-level differences is paramount to forming a regional strategy when the same region has the world’s largest producer of rice, largest call-center outsourcing provider, largest producer of hard-drives, and largest coal exporter. See graph below to see the variations in the key economic contributors for the major ASEAN countries (as of 2011):

2. Communicate Strengths of the Region Back to Corporate

a. Region Provides for an Attractive Investment Climate – Many SEA countries are very MNC friendly and aggressively promote this feeling by providing long-term investment incentives to stimulate strategically important industries. Highly attractive investment incentives programs such as the Economic Transformation Program by Malaysia, MP3EI by Indonesia, Public-Private Partnership by the Philippines, and Zone-Based Investment Incentives by Thailand have become a popular tool to attract FDI dollars into the region

b. Easier to Manage than India – In terms of demand, the ASEAN region and its member countries share similar characteristics with India. However, doing business in SEA is widely agreed to be easier than doing business in India, which features: unpredictable policy making, high levels of bureaucracy, increasing corruption, differing tax regulations, and an acute lack of infrastructure improvements

c.  Profitability Game – Not Just a Top Line Growth Story – Companies have found SEA to not only have strong growth potential, but also the potential for higher margins compared to India and China.

i.  SEA is still relatively less crowded in terms of competition, both from MNCs and local companies. Relative cost of inputs remains lower in the region, especially for medium-to low-end manufacturing facilities.

ii.  The region’s strong consumption appetite, both from its growing middle class and the government, makes its growth somewhat resilient.

iii.  The region offers dual advantages for MNCs; it functions not only as a source of domestic consumption demand, but also as a production hub for exporting to the immediate region and beyond.

Executives needs to quickly adopt a regional-mindset, setting for themselves a clear vision for growth in the ASEAN region and planning for a future where the region not only functions as a leader for APAC but maybe for a scale which would allow for global leadership. Many large MNCs have already begun their quest for building businesses that have a common vision and strategy across the region.

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Rising labor costs, increased potential for skilled labor shortages, and more restrictive credit conditions do, however, represent supply-side risks for multinationals already hard-hit by rising energy costs and the potential for strike-related supply chain disruptions as the electoral cycle kicks into gear.

Trend #1: Near-term Supply Chain Disruptions Likely as Election Year Politics Take Hold

• In recent weeks, strikes have broken out in a number of different sectors in Chile. Port workers have disrupted copper and fresh fruit exports, miners at the state-owned copper company Codelco demanded higher wages, preschool teachers from Fundación Integra called a 24-hour strike, and LAN airline workers have publicly protested against firings. These strikes are timed to capitalize on the electoral cycle, and while the volume is expected to decline following November’s election, multinationals may experience supply chain disruptions as a bandwagoning effect plays out across various sectors of the economy

Trend #2: A Stronger Peso Will Fuel Capital Investment Over the Near-Term

• The Chilean peso appreciated 7.8% against the US dollar in 2012, and as of mid-April, has appreciated 2.2% in 2013. The sustained real appreciation of the peso has strengthened domestic purchasing power, benefitting companies importing consumer durables and capital goods into the Chilean market, while taking a toll on commodity exporters.  Multinationals with local operations and/or production are likely to face rising costs as the prices of non-tradable inputs (i.e. labor, real estate, water, and electricity) rise in USD terms, even against a backdrop of muted inflation.
• While the peso will remain strong against the dollar in historical terms, moderation is anticipated over course of 2013, given a weaker outlook for copper demand and expectations that the Fed will scale back bond purchases.

Trend #3: An Uptick in Immigration Will Offset Chile’s Increasingly Tight Labor Market

• While multinationals are concerned about the potential for shortages of skilled labor and rising labor costs as the Chilean economy approaches full employment, a recent uptick in arrivals of skilled immigrants from the distressed economies of Spain and Argentina may help fill critical capability gaps.  Currently, companies with more than 25 employees can only fill 15% of positions with foreign hires. However, our expectation is that reform efforts will aim to raise this cap and streamline the visa process, while increasing inter-agency cooperation to ensure that policy is optimized to meet the country’s labor and technical needs.

FSG clients may click here to access a full report for further reading on FSG’s quarterly market view of Chile.

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