Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 21 May 2013 (8:00)

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More RAMBO patterns today at the Lows. The Amateurs just hate this rally. Well they might get a little Short loving Wednesday – after today’s Doji candlestick pattern. We’ll see.

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RAMBO Patterns Everywhere – Monday 20 May 2013 (7:46)

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Unusually large number of RAMBO patterns over the last few days – and it’s generated quite a lot of emails.

Remember RAMBO stands for a potential “Reversal of AMateur Break Out” and signal when Amateurs are active at new highs and lows, trading the breakout. They can be great, low risk entry points so they’re worth following.

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US Dollar Jumps the Creek on Weekly Chart (17:50)

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We’ve been building a base in the US Dollar for almost 2 years. And this week we finally “Jumped the Creek” on the weekly chart.

This is important. We’ve gotten used to the Pound at 1.55, the Euro at 1.35, the Yen at 80 and the Aussie and Loonie at parity. The Yen started moving 6 months ago and we’re now at 100. Get ready for the other “normal” levels to break.

This is going to be multi-year. Hold onto your hats.

US Dollar building a base for 2 years …

US Dollar Building a Base

I’ve been waiting patiently for this (and boring everyone with my bullish US Dollar view). Here’s the Emini-Watch video record:

• Bullish Dollar Index – 9 June 2011
• De-Coupling Between US Dollar & Bonds – 13 March 2012
• Next Forex Trend Leg Setting Up – 7 December 2012
• Explosive Buying Starting Uptrend – 6 January 2013

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Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 14 May 2013 (14:00)

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US Dollar is rallying. We’re above the recent high and itching to break into 84 on the US Dollar Index – a level we’ve not seen for 10 months. Meanwhile the Aussie Dollar is down 3 cents since the Is the Aussie Dollar Going to Crash? video. And the inflows into US assets are favouring Equities, not Bonds.

After a strong day like today, watch out. We’ll probably consolidate a little tomorrow – so look for cyclical plays, rather than bigger trend plays. Usually, we’ll see.

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Emini Trading Update – Sunday 12 May 2013 (10:06)

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Thank you everyone for your feedback on the Aussie Dollar Hangout. General consensus was that the charts were too hard to read. Unfortunately streaming video via Google Plus only has a resolution of 640×360 at the moment. An interesting experiment nonetheless. And now back to high res video!

Bonds got whacked on Friday and Bill Gross is calling this THE top in Bonds. A bold call. The US Dollar is strengthening and international capital flows from Japan and Europe are buying US equities and parking money in Bonds. I’d have to see a daily Support level broken first (and then a weekly Support level). I suppose it could happen, have to wait and see.

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Aussie Dollar Hangout – Saturday 11 May 2013 (21:06)

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Experimented with the live video broadcasting capability of Google+ today – it’s call a Hangout On Air. You could have seen this live on YouTube or through your Google+ stream (if you use Google+). I’m not much into social networks but this technology is pretty cool.

And so another video on the Aussie Dollar, I’m afraid. Feel like I’m flogging a dead horse but it was prompted by this email:

“As always Barry, l appreciate your videos and the efforts you put into them very much. However, on this occasion, l find myself at odds re the short term fate of the Aussie.

l think 99.5 is pretty much the bottom for now and that we will see a sharp push back beyond parity and toward 1.10.

But as always, our job should be to react, not predict. Keep up the great work.” Neil O.

Like Neil says, who knows the future. But I’m bullish on the US Dollar, and have been for 2 years, and so by implication have to be bearish the Aussie Dollar. Remember the Dollar Index had a Low of 72.7 back in May 2011 and now sits at 83.1 (a rise of 14%). The Aussie Dollar’s high in May 2011 was $1.10 and we now sit at $1.00 (in the cash Forex market).

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Aussie Dollar video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

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Forex Charts Update – Thursday 9 May 2013 (5:06)

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Quick update on the Forex Charts today.

Last Thursday we had Professional bars on the Dollar Index, Euro and British Pound. They were taking positions, getting ready for the next swing move. I always say wait for confirmation with breaks of the High/Low of the Professional bars to confirm what the Professionals were up to. Today we got that confirmation.

If you’re looking for Wednesday’s OSOK video, here’s the link

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Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 8 May 2013 (17:33)

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High average trade size ALL day – never seen this. And a nice OSOK just after the open.

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Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 7 May 2013 (12:09)

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I must admit I’m finding the continued strength of the Emini a little frustrating. I like markets to swing around a little, I think that’s healthy. But the Amateurs are selling the dips (with RAMBO patterns) and getting wrong-footed straight away as we push to new highs.

And now we’ve got confirmation that Central Banks around the world are buying equities. Do you think that’s right? Should Central Banks be able to buy equities?

Small experiment: If you use Google+ you can take the yes/no survey by clicking the +1 you agree with. Go to the Yes/No Survey here >>

Bot Signal Followup …

Bot Signal – Pre-open Thursday 2 May 2013

No Bot Signals for the last 3 days. But Thursday’s pre-open was a beauty.

“After reviewing your BOT video, I configured a simple indicator to signal if a BOT is plotted on the 500 tick bar chart with CQG data provider for Ninja Trader.

Today, after ECB rally on ES (pre-market open) the signal was made. I entered a short at yesterday’s value area High 1588.00 and made the OSOK with a cover @ 1584.” Kevin

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Business Insider carried a piece with the headline Why Shorting the Aussie Dollar is the ‘Trade of the Century’. Stefan Molyneux recorded a very slick video titled The Fall of Australia. About the only positive piece came from Sovereign Man saying Australia has the potential to become the new Switzerland.

Anyway, here’s my 2 cents. The first video lays out the qualitative arguments, both pro and con. The second video re-visits the M3 money supply chart and technical analysis.

Is the Aussie Dollar Going to Crash? – Part 1: Qualitative View (20:53)

Is the Aussie Dollar Going to Crash? – Part 2: Quantitative View (17:25)

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