Emini Trading Update – Wednesday 16 May 2012 (15:38)

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OK, rushing to get this post out – and not sure I’ll hit the email window. So apologies if you get this update late.

Well another down day and APPL is now down 16% from the highs and we pressed into the 20′s on the Emini today – after testing back to 1,340 again.

I think we’ll get a bounce tomorrow. We got a small bounce this morning, but I think it will be more significant tomorrow. And then we have FB Friday …

In the video today I go through my trades and what I should have done. It was a good day but only 1 entry was “right” – that is, at a low risk test with Professional bar. That’s the pattern I need to be looking for – rinse and repeat.

I kid myself that my “system” is highly discretionary. Truth is, I’m far too emotional in my trading and momentum gets me out of trouble. There are always tests and retracements before a trend gets going and that’s what I need to be waiting for.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

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Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 15 May 2012 (9:55)

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OK, now this is getting fascinating. The psychology of the market, that is.

I know when people are panicked – because traffic to Emini-Watch and emails to me spike. Luckily not “I’m Long RIMM, what should I do?” type emails. But just, “How do Flush patterns work?” or “I’m re-loading your indicators and have lost my password” type stuff. Plus AAPL has not bounced yet, etc. etc.

Then on Friday we have the Facebook (FB) IPO. THE most anticipated IPO in a long, long time. And the MSM are pumping it up as much as they can: “I’m investing all my daughter’s college fund in it” type stuff.

Money managers and the Wall Street Machine need this to go well. If it’s a debacle the general public will say “adios” to investing in stocks. So there’s a huge vested interest in supporting the price. Plus they’re in large to AAPL and they need that to bounce too.

And then there’s the giant European circus. It’s like a perfect storm.

Excited? I’m on the edge of my chair … and still looking for that big 3% down day, so I’ll keep questioning any rally we get.

Link of the day …

It took a few days, but finally the near-definitive explanation (or as much as we can know/guess) of the JPM $2bn losing position – as always, many thanks to Zero Hedge.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

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Commitment of Traders Charts – Sunday 13 May 2012 (16:41)

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Latest Commitment of Traders data is out – and we continue to get Bearish divergence patterns. Plus the Crash Warning signal popped up. I do my best to explain in the video what I think is going on.

I present this more as a curiosity than fact. I rely less and less on the Commitment of Traders data – partly because it’s weekly and partly because figuring out whether the Professionals are hedging or trend following is only possible in retrospect.

Still, it’s another data point. The 1,340 level will be key this week. Let’s see if it holds.

Don’t miss: Commitment of Traders – How to Follow the Professionals

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Commitment of Traders video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

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Emini Trading Update – Friday 11 May 2012 (15:15)

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Well now things get interesting. We’re sitting above a knife edge at 1,340 – and we’ve not seen Exhaustion selling on the 40,500 tick chart. We almost always see Exhaustion selling at the end of a down trend. So …

Link of the day …

I always like listening to John Taylor of FX Concepts. Great long term perspective and pretty good directionally. And then there’s music to the ears of a Bear like me:

“I am clearly worried that we could be at the start of a serious meltdown in the global markets.”

Here’s the full text courtesy of Zero Hedge and interview on Bloomberg.

Quote of the day …

Mercifully few emails after Wednesday’s off topic video. Bryant B. succinctly summarised what I was feeling – and was trying to convey but my anger got in the way:

“That video was sickening. Our whole system – from top to bottom – is out of whack. Corruption at the top and petty thugs at the bottom. Thanks for speaking out.”

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.

Instead of watching one of my puerile trading videos why not watch real life. Why is it always fat, white men in a position of authority? Go rot in Hell. The revolution can’t come fast enough. And don’t email me – I don’t want to know. RIP Kelly Thomas.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the RIP Kelly Thomas video on the website.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.

Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 8 May 2012 (15:03)

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Well we broke 1,350 and then bounced back into the congestion zone. I don’t think we’re finished on the downside but we could have a day (or two) testing up. We’ll see.

Tomorrow is likely to be a smaller range day. I had a good day today so I’ll be very cautious tomorrow.

Apologies if you get two emails today – missed my window for getting yesterday’s post out and so it gets tagged onto today’s email.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.

Emini Trading Update – Monday 7 May 2012 (12:12)

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Huge recovery day after the news out of France and Greece on Sunday evening. But we’re still in a down trend and so this was just a short covering rally (IMHO). When (and if) we break through 1,350 we’ll get some real fireworks. Look out over the next couple of days.

Everyone is trying to play down the French news and say it won’t be destabilising to the European accord that has so far been agreed to fix their sovereign debt problems. And seeing the footage out of Paris, the man in the street appears to think Hollande will fix everything.

Naive – and shame on the politicians for making the populace think they have the right answers. The truth is Hollande bribed the suckers by promising them to reduce the retirement age and tax the rich. And they fell for it – one of the most thoughtful, well read, informed countries in the world. People just hate hard work and struggle.

Update on Internet connection speed …

Well the Emini-Watch subscribers are great. I got some fantastic input from traders who know a lot more about Internet networks than I do (not hard). And they made two suggestions:

1. Measure the speed to the server delivering the data – not your local server. In my case this is the difference between measuring the speed to a local suburb in Australia versus Texas (where the TradeStation data servers are).
2. Measure network latency as well as throughput. They both impact response time.

And what a difference:

• My local server gave results of 60+ MBps throughput and 10 ms latency.
• The Texas servers gave results of 2-4 MBps throughput and 250 ms latency!

Now don’t forget these measurements are being made from Sydney, Australia – hopefully if you’re in the US your stats are way better. But it does explain partly why my Internet connection speed upgrade made so little difference to my chart load times.

Here is the original article with video of my internet connection speed.

Manly beach going off …

Off topic. Here in Manly, Sydney, just had 3 of the best days surf all year. Barrels left and right, plus dolphins in the warm water. Amazing when you think this is a commuter suburb of a major city. HT to Sprout Daily for the photo.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.

Emini Trading Update – Friday 4 May 2012 (9:53)

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For me, Friday’s activity was confirmation that we’ve turned a corner. We’ve put in all the hard work with Exhaustion Buying, First Divergence and Flush volume patterns at the highs. And finally End of Trend signals this week after the uptrend started in December. So it’s time for a decent down swing IMHO.

It’s a beautiful Autumn day here in Sydney, surf’s up and the water is still warm after the Summer. Hope you’re having a great weekend too.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.

Emini Trading Update – Tuesday 1 May 2012 (12:22)

In case you missed them here are links to yesterday’s video and the one over the weekend. Not sure what happened, but for some reason Feedburner didn’t deliver them. Hopefully today’s post will go out OK.

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.

Emini Trading Update – Monday 30 Apr 2012 (9:29)

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Got that weakness Monday until we found support on the 40,500 tick chart. Which also happened to be an “End of Trend” signal on the 4,500 tick chart – cycle move in higher time frame = trend move in lower time frame.

Anyway, enough of my secret language. We’ve found support and will probably run up tomorrow. Let’s see. Hope you traded well today.

Quote of the day …

Ben in San Diego has been posting his trades on YouTube with some great results:

“Thanks Barry! I had 5 days in a row 4+ points (only caught 4 of them with screen recording on.) I sincerely appreciate everything you do on eminiwatch. What an amazing resource it has been for me. Putting these videos together has given me a greater appreciation of the time you take to help out your fellow traders. Cheers and keep up the good work!”

If you’re reading this article via email or RSS reader, then follow this link to view the Emini Trading video on the website. Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini-Watch 'Better' Indicators: Get the indicators for TradeStation, NinjaTrader & MultiCharts here.