Endgame In Ulster

Demographic Update

2018-01-21T14:15:00.001+00:00

2017 was a game-changing year. We have seen Unionism lose it's majority for the first time since the formation of the gerrymandered sectarian state. We have seen an end of Nationalist apathy. For the first time ever, we have had opinion polls showing a plurality of 48% in favour of Irish Unity as opposed to 45% support for staying in the United Kingdom in the event of a hard Brexit. The same poll showed that among 18-44 year olds a clear majority of 56% are in favour of Irish Unity and less than 34% in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. We have had the first stage of the Brexit negotiations where the Irish Government has put it up to Arlene Foster as the UK commits economic suicide. Recently we have seen leaked revised proposals from the Boundary Commission, which show us that gerrymandering has not gone away. All of these events are related to changing demographics in the North.

The census is only published once every 10 years but there are other publications each year which give us an insight to changes in demographics on a yearly basis. The Schools Census/School Enrolment Statistical Bulletins which give an annual breakdown of the religious composition of 5 to 18 year olds. The Labour Force Survey gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age and general population aged over 16 years old. The Equality Commission Monitoring Report also provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce year on year.

The Schools Census for the year 2017/2018 shows that Catholics are have a majority of 51% of the school population while Protestant minority has declined to 37%. Those of No Religion/Religion Not Stated account for 12%.

The latest Labour Force Survey Religion Report showing the 2016 figures has shown a large adjustment on the prior year figures in the Population Aged 16-24. Compared with 2015 the Catholic percentage plummeted by 9 percentage points from 51% to 42% while the Protestant percentage increased from 36% to 38%. This adjustment goes against overall trends all other sources of demographic data.

The effect of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds has had a knock on effect on the Working Age Population and the Population Aged Over 16. Compared with 2015 figures, the Working Age Population of Catholics has fallen from 46% to 44%. Others have risen 2% to 16% and the Protestant percentage remains unchanged at 40%.

Parity had been reached among the two communities among the Population Aged 16 and Over in 2015. The trends showed that in 2016 that Catholics would outnumber Protestants in this age group for the first time. Because of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds the percentage of Catholics fell from 44% to 42%. Others increased from 12% to 14%. Protestants remained unchanged at 44%.

The Population Aged 60+ has not changed. The percentage split remains 57/35/8.

The Equality Commission Monitoring Report No 27 for 2016 shows the workforce now has a split of 51.6% Protestant and 48.4% Catholic. This gap is closing by 1% ever due to a higher level of Catholic Applicants (53.2%) and Appointees (53.8%). The trend shows that parity will be reached by 2019.

There is a very strong correlation between voting preference and demographics in the North. The trends are clear. There is a Catholic plurality in the North and there will soon be more people voting for Nationalists than Unionists. We have entered the final stage of the Endgame In Ulster.

Unionist High Water Mark?

2017-06-11T00:10:00.000+01:00

A snap Westminster election has resulted in a minority Conservative UK government dependent on a "supply and confidence" agreement with the DUP. Having secured 10 seats in the North it is enough to bring the Torys over the 326 seats needed for a majority.

As always this blog is concerned about the impact in Ireland and the Nationalist strength in the north of the country. There was almost identical turnout among the two communities in the March Assembly election which brought an end to a period of Nationalist voter apathy. Unionists responded with a surge in turnout, an additional 50,000 votes bringing their total to 395,000 votes.

Given that the March Assembly result left only 1,200 votes between the DUP and SF and some 20,000 votes between Nationalism and Unionism this election was portrayed by the DUP as a vote for the Union. If Unionism could not bring out it's voters in mass in this election it never will. And this is why I believe this is the high water mark for Unionism. 400,000 votes is required to beat Unionism on their best day.

The SDLP and UUP have been left with no seats. SF won 7 seats and the DUP won 10. The independent Unionist Sylvia Hermon won the other. Of course if the SDLP had accepted the will of the Nationalist people and responded to the Unionist pact, North and South Belfast would not have gone to the DUP. They got their answer on that one.

The DUP will not agree to the SF demand for implementation of previous agreements before Stormont can be reinstated. Therefore another Assembly election is likely in the near future as is another Westminster election for that matter. The possibility of the Nationalist vote exceeding the Unionist vote in one of these is there. As always turnout will be key. If not in 2017/2018 it will happen as some stage in the immediate future and calls for a Unity Referendum cannot be ignored. Interesting times ahead!

Crocodile Rock

2017-03-05T10:54:00.001+00:00

Well this has been coming. The premise of this blog is that demographic change will be translated into political change. We had not seen this in the elections cycle from 2014 to 2016 due to Nationalist voter apathy. However Nationalists have awoken from their slumber. Turnout matched and slightly exceeded turnout of Unionists.

The result was 40 seats for Nationalists and 40 for Unionists. Not only did Unionism loose its majority in the Assembly, it lost a plurality. First preference votes showed Nationalism at 42% with Unionism at 44%. There was only 20k votes between Unionism and Nationalism and a mere 1,000 votes between the DUP and Sinn Fein. The times they are a changing.

The challenge for Nationalism now is to push on from this and not become complacent. There are still over 300k Catholics and 600k Protestants who did not vote for a Nationalist party. These are the people who should be targeted.

Labour Force Survey 2015

2017-01-27T00:24:00.000+00:00

The Labour Force Survey for 2015 has been published. The LFS gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age population and general population from the age of 16. Although results can be erratic due to variances in the samples taken, the trends can be used to determine future voting patterns given the strong correlation between religion and political affiliation.

The 2015 report shows that for the first time, those from a Catholic community background make up a plurality of the working age population. Parity has been reached with those from a Protestant community background in all ages above the age of 16. Catholics are now in an overall majority in the 16-24 age cohort as opposed to just 35% in the over 60s.

Working Age Population
"In 2015, there was a higher proportion of Catholics among the working age population (46%) than Protestants (40%), with the remaining 14% reported as ‘other/non-determined’.

This is the first time in the time series presented in Figure 2.2 that Catholics amount for a higher proportion of the working age population.

In 1990, the religious composition of the working age population was 54% Protestant, 41% Catholic and 6% other/non-determined. Over this period, the number of Protestants of working age decreased by 5% (from 495,000 to 469,000), the number of working age Catholics increased by 44% (from 375,000 to 538,000), and the number of those classified as ‘other/non-determined’ trebled (from 53,000 to 159,000)."

Population Aged 16+
"The proportion of Protestants has fallen by 12 percentage points between 1990 and 2015, from 56% to 44%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by six percentage points, from 38% to 44%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has doubled (from 6% to 12%) over this period.

Between 1990 and 2015 the number of Protestants aged 16 and over decreased by
10,000, or 2%, to 633,000, while the number of Catholics increased by 193,000, or 44%, to 633,000 over the same period. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ has almost trebled from 63,000 to 180,000 over this period."

Population Aged 16-24
"The proportion of this age group who reported as Protestant has decreased
between 1990 and 2015 (from 49% to 36%), while the proportion of Catholics increased
(from 44% to 51%), and the proportion classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled, from 7% to 13%, over the same period.

Between 1990 and 2015, the number of Protestants in this age group has decreased by 38,000 (33%) from 116,000 to 78,000. The number of Catholics has increased slightly over this period, from 105,000 to 109,000 (4%). The largest proportionate increase was among those classified as ‘other/non-determined’; from 16,000 in 1990 to 29,000 in 2015."

Population Aged 60+
"The proportion of this age group who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 57% in 2015, while the proportion of Catholics has increased, from 30% to 35%, over this same period. Five per cent of those aged 60 and over were classified as ‘other/non-determined’ in 1990; by 2015 this proportion had increased to 8%.

There were 166,000 Protestants aged 60 and over in 1990 and this had increased to
212,000 by 2015. The number of Catholics in this age group increased from 76,000 to
132,000 over the same period. The 11,000 who were aged 60 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ in 1990 had almost trebled to 30,000 by 2015."

Irish Unity Makes Economic Sense

2017-01-22T11:43:00.000+00:00

First-Ever Economic Modeling Details Economic Benefits Of Irish Unification

Study by researchers who have examined German and Korean unification models shows long-term improvement of GDP per capita in the North of 4 to 7.5 percent, while the Republic would see a boost of 0.7 to 1.2 percent.

At an evening presentation at the Harvard Club in Midtown Manhattan, two prominent scholars in the field of political science and economics released the findings of a landmark, first-ever economic study entitled Modeling Irish Unification, which showed significant long-term improvement in the stagnant Northern Irish economy would result from removing currency, trade and tax barriers that currently impede economic growth.

The report also showed improvements for theRepublic of Ireland, which would benefit from barrier-free access to the Northern Irish market. By modeling three separate unification scenarios, the researchers showed a long-term improvement of GDP per capita in the North of 4 to 7.5 percent, while the Republic of Irelandwould see a boost of 0.7 to 1.2 percent.

The report presents the first comprehensive economic models simulating the political and economic integration of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The study is particularly timely given current debates over Irish economic growth and the U.K.'s continued participation in the European Union. Three unification scenarios were presented, with the most aggressive estimating a 35.6 billion Euroboost in an all-island GDP in the first eight years of unification.

Representatives of government, the financial sector and international relations communities attended the event.

The research was led by Dr. Kurt Hubner, professor of political science, Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy and Director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Hubner directed the research through his firm KLC – Consulting for Tomorrow, an economic and political relations consulting firm based in Vancouver. The economic model was developed by Dr. Renger Herman van Nieuwkoop, Director and Founder of ModelWorks and professor of economics at ETH Zurich.

"Our modeling exercise points to strong positive unification effects driven by successful currency devaluation and a policy dependent industrial turn-around," said Dr. Hubner. "While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy."

In the executive summary, Professor Steven Raphael, UC Berkeley, wrote: "Political and economic unification of the North and South would likely result in a sizable boost in economic output and incomes in the North and a smaller boost in the [Republic of Ireland]."

Marcus Noland, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, provided comment on the study, writing: "Modeling Irish Unification is an important, timely examination of the economics of Irish unification, applying state-of-the-art modeling techniques to the issue at hand. The modeling work illustrates a variety of channels which are likely to be at play in the Irish case, and concludes that Irish unification would be economically beneficial to both parts of the island, especially for smaller, poorer,Northern Ireland."

After Dr. Hubner and Dr. van Nieuwkoop'sconcluded their remarks, Michael Burke, economic consultant and former Senior International Economist at Citibank in London, discussed the global impact of a unifiedIreland.

"The issue of the benefits of a unified Irish economy are unfortunately largely overlooked," said Burke. "This paper goes some way to correcting that and will help develop discussion in this neglected area."

The study was commissioned by K.R.B., a San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education.

Lucid Talk Tracker Poll - December 2016

2017-01-05T23:32:00.000+00:00

Lucid Talk have published their latest Tracker Poll.

The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 5,000 members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.

Most interestingly the poll shows support for Irish Unity in the North at 44.4%. This is significantly higher than the 41% in the 2015 RTE/BBC poll. Brexit is clearly a game changer.

The other significant thing that happened over the last year was the publication of an independent report 'Modelling Irish Reunification' in which findings by Dr. Kurt Hubner concluded that Unification was by far the best option economically for both parts of the island and would provide a boost to GDP of €35.6 billion over 8 years.

Equality Commission Monitoring Report No. 26

2016-12-17T10:41:00.000+00:00

The monitoring of demographic data might not be everyone's cup of tea. Many will refer to it as "sectarian head counting." However the fact remains that there has always been a close correlation between religion and politics in the North of Ireland. Very few if any Catholics vote for Unionist parties and very few Protestants vote for Nationalist parties. Therefore demographic change can give us a clue as to how voting patterns will develop in the future. This is the reality.

The Equality Commission have published their 26th Monitoring Report. This report provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce in the year 2015. The trend has not changed and parity is likely in 2017 or 2018.

The composition of Catholics in the workforce increased to 47.9% (+0.5%) in 2015 while the Protestant proportion decreased to 52.1%.

The reason the trend has continued in 2015 is due to the percentage of Catholic community background applicants (52.9%) and appointees (53.1%) being greater than their Protestant counterparts (47.1% and 46.9% respectively).

The most puzzling aspect of this report is why Protestants make up only 49.1% of leavers from the workforce when according to the 2011 census, retirement age Protestants make up c65% of the general population?

The DUP's Gregory Campell in a recent attack on the Equality Commission complained that Protestants were under represented in appointments to the workforce. These figures show there is an under representation of 0.2%, in other words there is no under representation.

Perhaps Gregory hasn't come to terms with the fact that demographics have changed. Annually published figures such as Equality Commission Monitoring Reports show us that the trends seen in the 2011 census show no sign of abating. Therefore 2017 marks the first time that Catholics in the North outnumber Protestants in the general population. Significant given the raision d'etre for the 1921 gerrymandering was to provide a "Protestant state for a Protestant people."

Brexit and Irish Reunification

2016-07-20T22:54:00.001+01:00

It is often said a week is a long time in politics. Try a month. The last month has been one of political turmoil and uncertainty. What does seem certain though, after the unexpected vote in the UK to leave the EU, is that the UK is headed for recession and is on the verge of break up. Having overwhelmingly voted to remain part of the EU, a second Scottish Independence Referendum looks set to be triggered as soon as England begins taking Scotland out of the EU against it's will.

Here in Ireland, Sinn Féin were quick out of the blocks demanding a Unity Referendum (#UnityRef replacing #BoderPoll on the twitter machine!) given that 56% in the North voted to remain. Nothing new or unexpected here.

Then we had the comments from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin that he hopes the UK’s Brexit vote will eventually lead to a referendum on a united Ireland.

“The remain vote may show people the need to rethink current arrangements. I hope it moves us towards majority support for unification, and if it does we should trigger a reunification referendum.
“However, at this moment the only evidence we have is that the majority of people in Northern Ireland want to maintain open borders and a single market with this jurisdiction, and beyond that with the rest of Europe.”

All very positive and he does qualify his remarks with the need for "evidence" that a reunification referendum will have sufficient support to pass. I think he is correct. The only evidence we have is in the form of elections and opinion polls. Opinion polls (at least the non Unionist leaning ones that don't use the wording to steer to the "correct" result) have support for Unification in the North at c40%. The effect of Brexit may increase this by a few percentage points. We will have to wait and see as there has been no opinion pollspublished post Brexit.

The other form of evidence is election results. Due to Nationalist voter apathy, Nationalist strength has not been expressed in the latest cycle of elections. This has resulted in Nationalists being under represented in the Assembly and in Westminster. Perhaps Brexit may wake up apathetic Nationalists. If Nationalist turnout can match Unionist turnout in the first post Brexit election, perhaps this result will provide the evidence required for a Unity Ref. Perhaps it won't and the waiting game of demographic change will go on.

The most significant development of the lot came from Taoiseach Enda Kenny. He has stated a possible border poll should be included as part of the Brexit negotiations.

"The discussions and negotiations that will take place over the next period should take into account the possibility, however far out that it might be, that the clause in the Good Friday Agreement might be triggered. In that if there is clear evidence of a majority of people wishing to leave the United Kingdom and join the Republic, that that should be catered for in the discussions that take place".

What the Fine Gael leader is saying here is that as part of the Brexit negotiations he will seek a guarantee that a future United Ireland will gain automatic membership of the European Union. Therefore when there is a Unity Referendum in the future, voters will know that a vote for a United Ireland will be a vote for a United Ireland within the EU. There would be no ambiguity as there was in the Scottish Independence Referendum.

The onus is now on the Fine Gael government, the minority government backed Fianna Faíl and main opposition party Sinn Féin to ensure that the promise of this guarantee is delivered.

The government should veto any Brexit outcome that does not include this guarantee. This is of vital importance because a future Unity Referendum for a United Ireland in the EU versus a UK of England and Wales outside of the EU is a political game changer.

Assembly Election 2016

2016-05-07T18:25:00.002+01:00

The final ballot papers have been counted. The Assembly will be made up of 38 DUP, 28 SF, 16 UUP, 12 SDLP, 8 Alliance, 2 PBP, 2 Green Party, 1 TUV and 1 Independent seat. 56 MLAs will designate as Unionist, 40 as Nationalist and the remaining 12 as Other. Those who will designate as Nationalist took a mere 36% of the first preference vote, down over 5% on the 2011 Assembly Election. From the European elections of 2014 to this Assembly Election, this election cycle has been extremely disappointing for Nationalism.

There has traditionally been a correlation with political affiliation and religion. Democratic change has meant that the Catholic population in the North is due to overtake the Protestant population in 2017. In 2023 there should be a Catholic electorate majority (or plurality). The strategy is that as demographic change takes place and the Catholic population grows, so too will the Nationalist vote. Once the Nationalist vote has overtaken the Unionist vote a referendum on Irish Unity would be triggered. This would result in the reunification of Ireland.

This strategy is currently in tatters and Nationalism is in crisis. Why has the Nationalist vote collapsed?

People Before Profit received 2% of the vote and took two seats. PBP are an All Ireland Party and say they oppose the border yet they will not designate as Nationalist as they see themselves primarily as Socialists. A motion on the border needs to be put in the early days of the Assembly to test them on this. Even if we say the Nationalist vote was 38% this is still a miserable return.

Apathy again is the real problem. Many Nationalists no longer vote for SF or the SDLP because of a perceived liberal view on social issues such as abortion and same sex marriage. Many don't vote because they believe that partaking in the Northern Assembly is akin to administering of British rule in Ireland. Most though it seems don't vote because they simply don't give a shit!

Labour Force Survey 2014

2016-03-21T19:48:00.000+00:00

The Labour Force Survey for 2014 has been published. The LFS gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the Working Age Population and general population from the age of 16. Although results can be erratic due to variances in the samples taken, the trends can be used to determine future voting patterns given the strong correlation between religion and political affiliation.

Working Age Population
"The difference between the proportion of Protestants and Catholics in the working age population has fallen from 13 percentage points in 1990 to one percentage point in 2014. In 1990 the religious composition of the population of working age was 54% Protestant, 41% Catholic & 6% other/non determined. In 2014 the corresponding figures were 44%, 43% and 13%."

"Over this period, the number of Protestants of working age increased by 3% (from 495,000 to 511,000), the number of working age Catholics increased by 35% (from 375,000 to 504,000), and the number of those classified as 'other/non-determined' almost trebled (from 53,000 to 149,000)".

The definition of "working age" was changed in 2010. Therefore this seems a good starting point to look at the more recent trend.

Population Aged 16+
"The proportion of Protestants has fallen by nine percentage points between 1990 and 2014, from 56% to 47%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by three percentage points from 38% to 41%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as 'other/non-determined' has doubled (from 6% to 12%) over this period".

"Between 1990 and 2014 the number of Protestants aged 16 and over increased by 35,000, or 5%, to 678,000, while the number of Catholics increased by 150,000, or 34%, to 590,000 over the same period. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as 'other/non-determined' has almost trebled from 63,000 to 170,000 over this period".

The more recent trend can be seen in the graph below

Population Aged 16-24
The proportion of Protestants has decreased between 1990 and 2014 (from 49% to 42%), while the proportion of Catholics increased (from 44% to 45%), and the proportion classified as 'other'/non-determined' has almost doubled form 7% to 13%, over the same period.

"Between 1990 and 2014, the number of Protestants in this age group has decreased by 25,000 (22%) to 91,000. The number of Catholics has also decreased over the period, albeit to a lesser extent, from 105,000 to 96,000 (9%). These decreases have been somewhat offset by an increase among those classified as 'other/non-determined' from 16,000 in 1990 to 28,000 in 2014."

Population Aged 60+
"The composition of the population aged 60+ between 1990 and 2014 who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 59% in 2014, while the proportion of Catholics has increased from 30% to 33% over the same period. Five percent of those aged 60 and over were classified as 'other/not-determined' in 1990; by 2014 this proportion had increased to 8%".

"There were 166,000 Protestants aged 60 and over in 1990 and this has increased to 216,000 by 2014. The number of Catholics in this age group has increased from 76,000 to 122,000 over the same period. The 11,000 who were aged 60 and over classified as 'other/non-determined' in 1990 had almost trebled to 30,000 by 2014".

Conclusion
Among the Working Age Population the gap between the two main religious blocks stands at only 7,000 or 1 percentage point in 2014.

Among those aged 16 and over the gap between the two communities is 88,000 or 6 percentage points.

Are these trends likely to continue? The answer lies in the two population cohorts aged 16-24 and over 60.

Among the 16-24 year old's there is a majority of 5,000 more Catholics or 3 percentage points.

Among those aged 60 and over, in 2014 there were 94,000 more Protestants a gap of 26%.

So with more Catholics entering the workforce and more Protestants reaching retirement age we can expect to see parity in the 2015 or 2016 Labour Force Survey. It is also evident that the general demographic trends will continue at pace.

University Matters

2016-01-20T00:21:00.000+00:00

A Loyalist newspaper has ran a front cover story of the "stark religious divide at university". The article informs of the demographic make up of new entrants into third level education in the North in the last academic year. Protestants make up 14,195 (29.5%) of those entering university, compared to 21,765 (45.3%) Catholics. This would leave 12,115 (25.2%) Other (no religion/no disclosed/overseas students etc.). Leaving aside the others the breakdown is 61% Catholic, 39% Protestant.

According to UUP spokesperson Sandra Overend the reason for this "educational inequality" is because Sinn Féin were not tackling the issue. DUP spokesman Peter Weir went one better and blamed a "chill factor" for Protestants attending university because of the behaviour of Catholics.

Presumably this bad behaviour includes wearing GAA gear, use of the native Irish language and celebrating St. Partick's Day.

There is educational under achievement particularly among Protestant boys. This is a damning indictment of the failure of Unionist politicians to show leadership. They would much rather concentrate on bonfires, parades, flags and the past.

Let's be clear educational under achievement has very little to do with the demographic make up of the North's third level colleges. Some suggest that there is a "protestant brain drain" whereby more protestants go to university in Britain and stay there to work once they graduate. This may be a factor but the major reason for the "relious divide" of new entrants into the North's universities is demographics.

The School's Census which is published every year shows a trend towards a 60:40 Catholic Protestant split in our schools. It is therefore not really surprising that entrants into universities show the same ratio.

Equality Commission Monitoring Report No. 25

2015-12-09T13:51:00.001+00:00

The Equality Commission have published their 25th Monitoring Report. This report provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce in the year 2014. Previous trends show no sign of abating. Parity will be achieved in 2018.

The composition of Catholics in the workforce has increased to 47.4% (+0.4%) in 2014 while the Protestant proportion has decreased to 52.6%.

The reason the trend has continued in 2014 was due to the percentage of appointees from a Catholic community background (51.8%) being greater that those appointed to jobs from a Protestant background (48.2%) and because the Protestant percentage of leavers from the workforce (50.7%) being greater than their Catholic counterparts (49.3%).

Note that the Catholic percentage of applicants to the workforce was 52.3%, somewhat higher than the 51.8% appointed.

It should also be noted that the proportion of Protestants at retirement age is c66%. The 50.7% leaving the workforce each year is much lower than this.

Northern Ireland Net Fiscal Balance Report 2011-2012

2015-10-31T23:33:00.000+00:00

In any debate on the economics of a United Ireland, Unionists will inevitably contend that the North receives an annual £10bn subvention from Westminster. Their argument is that in a United Ireland the Dublin government would not be able to afford to replace this block grant. Therefore it does not make economic sense to have a United Ireland.

In order to challenge this argument we need to go directly to the source of the argument. In March 2014 the Department of Finance and Learning (DFL) published the Northern Ireland Net Fiscal Balance Report 2011-2012.

At first glance the Unionist argument appears to be correct, that Northern Ireland generates around £14 billion in tax revenue and spends approximately £24 billion leaving a deficit of some £10 billion

2011-2012	£'billion
Estimated Total Revenue	14.1
Total Managed Expenditure	23.8
Surplus/(Deficit)	-9.7

Let us delve into the figures. We are told the estimated tax revenue is c£14.1 billion. A breakdown of the relevant taxes is given, but we are not told how much corporation tax which is generated in Northern Ireland but declared in London. This is true for companies which are located in the North with their headquarters in London.

On the expenditure side, what makes up the 'Total Managed Expenditure' figure of £23.8 billion? Total Managed Expenditure is made up of 'Identifiable Managed Expenditure', 'Non Identifiable Managed Expenditure' and 'Accounting Adjustments'.

Non Identifiable Managed Expenditure of £3.3 billion relates to UK wide spending on things like Defence and servicing of debt. Basically it has nothing whatsoever to do with the North of Ireland. I'm not sure exactly what the Accounting Adjustment of £1.1 billion relates to but I do know it relates to an overall UK accounting adjustment. Again nothing to do with the North.

Total Managed Expenditure	£'billion
Identifiable Managed Expenditure	19.4
Non Identifiable Managed Expenditure	3.3
Accounting Adjustments	1.1
Total Managed Expenditure	23.8

So that just leaves us with the 'Identifiable Managed Expenditure' of £19.4 billion. We are told it is made up of Departmental Expenditure Limits (DEL), Annual Managed Expenditure (AME) and Locally Generated Funds.

Locally Generated Funds? Yes, you guessed it. These are funds collected in the North, mainly from regional and local rates. Therefore these funds are not British government funding.

I am not aware of the how much of Identifiable Managed Expenditure is made up of these 'Locally Generated Funds' in 2011-2012 but I do have the figures for 2012-2013. Until I find out the figure for 2011-2012 I will take it that it is the same as the £1.3 billion figure of 2012-2013.

Identifiable Managed Expenditure 2012-2013	£'billion
Departmental Expenditure Limits (DEL)	10.4
Annual Managed Expenditure (AME)	8.1
Locally generated funds (mainly Regional and Local Rates)	1.3
NI Identifiable public expenditure	19.8

With the benefit of now knowing the breakdown of the figures we can conclude that the total relevant expenditure in the British government financial year to April 2012 was £18.1 billion and the real budget deficit and block grant was £4 billion.

Relevant Expenditure	£'billion
Total Managed Expenditure	23.8
Non Identifiable Managed Expenditure	-3.3
Accounting Adjustments	-1.1
Locally Generated Funds	-1.3
Relevant Expenditure	18.1

Real Net Fiscal Balance 2011-2012	£'billion
Estimated Total Revenue	14.1
Relevant Expenditure	18.1
Real Deficit	-4.0

So the real figure for the FY2012 was closer to £4 billion rather than the £10 billion that is often stated by Unionists. This is before we adjust for incomplete corporation tax figures.

We do not know the current (FY2015) block grant figure although I have heard several commentators say it is closer to £3 billion. Given the Tory cuts of the last three years a current subvention of £3 billion may not be too far off the mark.

In the recent Irish Unity conference in Belfast, economist Michal Burke states the subvention is just £690 million.

"Outlandish numbers are frequently cited for the so-called subvention from Westminster, which is not included in the resources generated in NI. But the data above shows that there are resources available in NI that make any subvention unnecessary.

Recent ONS data specified the total of taxes and benefits for all households in Britain and in NI. On average households in NI receive £982 more in benefits than they contribute in taxes and charges. As there 703,000 households in NI, the total subvention to households is just £690 million. To be absolutely clear, these benefits are not welfare, but all forms of social protection, plus the NHS, education, bus passes for the elderly, free school meals, etc., etc.

(The difference between Britain and NI is households in Britain are net contributors to government finances of £152 per annum. This is accounted for by a lower proportion of the population in work and lower paid jobs in NI- a marker of successive failures of British economic policy in NI)".

No matter which figure is correct, let's be clear. The only reason that the North of Ireland requires an annual subvention is because it exists as part of the United Kingdom.

Nationalist Voter Apathy

2015-05-09T18:54:00.002+01:00

After the formation of the gerrymandered, sectarian "Protestant state for Protestant people," the Catholic minority community suffered decades of discrimination, inequality and sectarianism. Essentially second class citizens, many were forced many to emigrate. In spite of this, demographic change started to occur in the 1960s which saw the number and proportion of the Catholic population begin to increase.

Partition was not kind to the Nationalist political parties either who obtained the vast majority of its support from the Catholic minority community. Majority Unionist rule led to gerrymandering and denial of the right to one man one vote.

As demographics changed and the Catholic population grew so too did the Nationalist vote. Nationalists which once made up a mere 18.9% of the vote, had by the time the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998 almost reached parity with Unionists.

From around the year 1998 until 2011 the Nationalist voted seemed to plateau at around 42%. The results of the 2014 local and European elections came as a shock. The combined Sinn Féin and SDLP vote slipped back to 38.5%. The result of the 2015 Westminster election shows this was no once off. The SF/SDLP vote of 38.4% is almost identical to the prior year. So what has happened to Nationalism? Why despite demographic change has the Nationalist vote stalled and gone into decline? Could it be electoral apathy?

The graph below is an estimate of electoral turnout based on election figures and community background figures from the census. It assumes that he vast majority of those brought up in a Catholic community background vote for or are inclined to vote for Nationalist parties and the vast majority of those brought up in a Protestant community background vote for or are inclined to vote for Unionist parties. It also assumes that everybody is on the electoral register.

Nationalist voter apathy was catching up with traditional Unionist voter apathy up until 2009 when parity was reached. Although the proportion of Nationalists voting declined at a greater rate than Unionists, the Nationalist percentage of the vote was holding. This was a sign of further demographic change.

The 2014 European and local elections saw a surge in Unionist turnout. The Nationalist vote continued it's decline and remained well below the Unionist turnout in the 2015 election.

There were two significant events which took place between the 2011 and 2014 elections which could have caused the Unionist turnout to increase well beyond that of Nationalists.

On 4th December 2012, Belfast City Council with it's first ever Nationalist plurality voted to change the policy of flying the Union Flag from City Hall. Instead of the flying of the flag 365 days per year it would only be flown on 17 designated days. The Union Jack which had flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.

There was an electoral canvass in 2013. Basically the Electoral Office NI wiped clean the electoral register, an electoral canvass took place in each constituency and a new electoral register was published. The new register contained details of 1,241,079 electors out of an eligible electorate of 1,405,808 based on the 2011 census. The new register contained 88.3% of the eligible population. Could it be that the new register contained a much higher proportion of additional potential Unionist voters than Nationalist voters? The Loyalist reaction to the removal of the Union Jack from Belfast City Hall was bedlam on the streets. Could the overall Unionist reaction have been getting the maximum amount of additional potential voters onto the electoral register?

Clearly Unionists have become more motivated to turnout and vote. But that is only one side of the equation and not something Nationalist can change. What can be changed is the huge increase in apathy among their own base.

In order to resolve this major problem the reasons for increasing apathy must be identified. Then solutions must be formulated.

Possible reasons for Nationalist voter apathy:

Despondency. Not much progress has been made since the GFA. The British Government and Unionists have failed to implement outstanding issues of past agreements such as the Irish Language Act. No progress has been made on the A5, the Ulster Canal, Narrow Bridge or an independent University for Derry. Little or no jobs have been created outside of Belfast. No fiscal powers have been secured. Amazingly, both SF and the SDLP have entered into subsequent agreements without first obtaining guarantees on implementing past agreements.
The collapse of the Irish economy is likely to have had an effect. Note the large drop in Nationalist turnout between 2007 and 2009. The annual Peace Monitoring Report suggests support for Unity dropped at the height of the recession.
Lack of choice. Unionists have the DUP, UUP, TUV, UKIP, PUP, Conservatives etc. Nationalists have two left wing parties with very little separating them bar their view on the past.
Lack of Nationalist co-operation. The Unionist pact worked to perfection. In PR elections Unionists will encourage voters to give a preference to all other Unionists on the ballot paper. Past experience suggests SF and SDLP will not do the same.
Many practicing Catholics are not enamoured by SF and SDLP views on abortion and same sex marriage.
The SDLP are a party lacking individuals with charisma and leadership. They are turning non SF inclined voters off who are either staying at home or voting for Alliance and People Before Profit.

Possible Remedies:

A Nationalist Panel should be set up with representatives from all interested parties to research the reasons for increasing apathy and report back on it's findings with remedies.
Granting Irish citizens in the North voting rights in Presidential Elections would energise Nationalists and encourage more political organisation on an All Ireland basis. This should be a key strategic objective.
More choice is required. The North is crying out for a centre right All Ireland party. Fianna Faíl who have promised to contest the 2019 assembly elections may offer the best opportunity.
Reduce the legal voting age to 16.
Learn from the Scottish National Party success in Scotland and replicate where practical.
Campaign to get the maximum number of people registered to vote.
More focus on getting those living/travelling abroad and those in 3rd level education to use their postal or proxy vote.
Both SF and the SDLP need to put aside their narrow political interests and co-operate for the greater good.
An Irish Passport Office should be set up in Belfast and/or Derry.

Schools Census 2014/2015

2015-02-28T13:38:00.001+00:00

Today's school children are tomorrows voters. The strong correlation between voting trends and religious affiliation advocates the use of current demographic data to determine future voting patterns.

The Schools Census 2014/2015 published by the Department of Education Northern Ireland (DENI) provides a breakdown of the religion of school children in nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North of Ireland.

As the Schools Census is published annually a trend has emerged of an increasing proportion of Catholics and Others (No Religion/Not Recorded) and a year on year reduction in the proportion of Protestants. Page 27 of this years report shows that these trends are continuing. Catholics now make up 51.3% (+0.2%) of pupils. The Protestant percentage has declined to 38.8% (-0.4%) while the Others have increased to 9.9% (+0.2%).

The figures above are similar to figures in table DC2116NI of the 2011 Census in that they are based on the stated 'Religion'. The 2011 Census also produced table DC2117NI which determines the 'Community Background' of the population. Basically a proportion of 'Others' in table DC2116NI have been allocated to the two main blocks to produce table DC2117NI.

This can be replicated in the Schools Census. Primary school children are generally aged between 5 to 11 years and secondary school children are aged between 12 and 18. At the time of the 2011 Census todays 5 to 11 year olds were aged 1 to 7 and todays 12 to 18 year olds were aged 8 to 14.

The allocation of 'Others' in table DC2116NI (Religion) to produce table DC2117NI (Community Background) shows the following allocation for todays school children:

School children aged 1-7: 20.3% to Catholic. 20.2% to Protestant.
School children aged 8-14: 22.0% to Catholic. 23.8% to Protestant.

Using these figures to reallocate 'Others' in the Schools Census to provide a truer reflection of the community background of students, we find that Catholics make up 53.4%, Protestants 40.9% and Others 5.7%.

Leaving aside the 5.7% 'Others' not identified as belonging to either the Catholic or Protestant community backgrounds, the religious split in the schools is 57% Catholic and 43% Protestant.

So in a week where we find that extreme elements of Unionism are so worried about changing demographics that they are using land funds to prevent Catholics from buying homes, we can determine that the trend towards a 60:40 demographic make up of the North's population shows no sign of abating. If the correlation between voting trends and religious affiliation remains strong, inevitably Nationalism's day will come.

Protestant Land for Protestant People

2015-02-25T18:42:00.000+00:00

A recent BBC Spotlight programme highlighted land funds controlled by the Orange Order. It is alleged that these land funds are being used by companies linked directly or indirectly to the OO, to purchase land in rural parts of the North in order to keep the land in Protestant hands, or more accurately to keep out of the reach of Catholics.

The alleged "landholding body of the Loyal Orange Institution" is the Ulster Land and Property Company (ULPC) whose motto is "Ulster is being sold, help us buy it." ULPC was formed in 1995 at the height of the Drumcree standoff, to block Catholics buying land.

Of course this type of sectarian skewing of the property market has been going on for decades. In 1920 acres of land was reserved for thousands of Protestants in nearby Cavan and Monaghan who found themselves on the "wrong side" of the new gerrymandered border.

So what have Unionist "leaders" have to say about a practice which effectively seeks to prevent Catholic families from buying homes and in doing so skews the property market. The silence has been deafening. You would have to go back to a row in the Assembly in 2013 where First Minister and leader of the largest Unionist party, Peter Robinson berated Jim Allister of the TUV for selling land to "Republicans", by which of course he meant "Catholics."

"And he chides me for doing business with republicans, but then secretly and, outside of this house, the member as executor of a will, is selling land to republicans in County Fermanagh to benefit his own family"

Imagine for one moment, an organisation made up largely of Catholics such as the GAA (and I am not for one minute comparing the GAA with the Orange Order) purchased land from Catholics in order to ensure it could be sold to other Catholics north or south of the border. Imagine the organisation purchased land from Protestants so it could turn the "colour code" of the land from orange to green. Imagine if they were providing loans and grants to Catholics to ensure the land stayed in the right hands. Imagine the reaction!

There would be calls for a full investigation. There would be calls for the introduction of new legislation. There would be calls for an investigation into how reconciliation funding (including funding provided by the Irish government!) is being used and there would certainly be calls for all future public and reconciliation funding to stop.

It is worth noting that the recent property crash has hit all property companies hard and the Orange Order will not have escaped. In fact it can be said without fear of contradiction that NAMA owns more land north of the border than the Orange Order ever will.

Labour Force Survey 2013

2015-01-10T16:19:00.002+00:00

Following on from the publication of the 24th Fair Employment Monitoring Report by the Equality Commission comes the publication of the Labour Force Survey 2013.

For as long as the correlation between demographic and voting trends remains strong, I will continue to review publications such as these for information provided on demographics, in order to gage possible future voting patterns.

The main difference between the LFS and Monitoring Reports is that the latter does not monitor the self-employed, those on government training schemes, school teachers and those working in private sector concerns with 10 or less employees. While the LFS does look at a wider market spectrum it comes with a health warning in that as a survey the results can be quite volatile due to sampling errors. Also data to determine the community background figures where religion was not provided by those surveyed has not been used in the LFS.

Comparing the figures for the Working Age Population with the LFS 2012 we see that the proportion of Protestants has increased by one percentage point to 45%, the proportion of Catholics remains unchanged at 43%, while the proportion of those classified as 'other/non-determined decreased by one percentage point to 12%.

The definition of "working age" changed in 2010 to include both males and females between the ages of 16 and 64 (previously it excluded females between ages 59 to 64). Therefore we will look at the figures from 2010 in order to be as consistent as possible.

The Protestant proportion increase of 1% in 2013 makes as much sense as a 2% decrease in both 2011 and 2012. It is clear the volatility of the LFS can cause year on year changes which are contrary to demographic trends. The LFS recognises this volatility stating "it may be due to sampling error and as such year on year changes should be observed with caution and longer term trends should also be considered." The longer term trends are represented in the graph below.

The LFS also gives us a breakdown of the demographics for the Population Aged 16 and Over. We are told "The proportion of Protestants has fallen by eight percentage points between 1990 and 2013, from 56% to 48%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by three percentage points, from 38% to 41%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled (from 6% to 11%) over this period".

In the graph above we again can see can see the volatility of the results from year to year. The longer term trend is demonstrated below:

The demographic breakdown of the Population Aged 60+ tells us "the proportion of this age group who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 60% in 2013, while the proportion of Catholics has increased, from 30% to 33%, over this same period. Five per cent of those aged 60 and over were classified as ‘other/non-determined’ in 1990; by 2013 this proportion had increased to 8%. We are also told Between 2011 and 2012 the proportion of Protestants fell by six percentage points (from 62% to 56%), the proportion of Catholics increased by eight percentage points (from 29% to 37%), and the proportion of those classified as other/non-determined decreased by two percentage points (from 9% to 7%). Such a large swing in the religious composition of the population of this age group may be due to sampling error and as such year on year changes should be observed with caution and longer term trends should also be considered"

The breakdown of the Population Aged 16 to 24 tells us "The proportion of Protestants has fallen by seven percentage points between 1990 and 2013, from 49% to 42%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by one percentage points, from 44% to 45%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled (from 7% to 13%) over this period".

The data on the 'Working Age Population' shows that the population between the ages 16 to 64 is at or very close to parity. The data on 'Population Aged 16 & Over' and 'Population Aged 60+' telling us there are significantly more Protestants in the older age cohorts. The data on 'Population Aged 16 to 24' shows us that Catholics are in a majority in the younger age cohorts. We can therefore conclude that tipping point for the 'Working Age Population' will be seen in the LFS 2014 and if there is a sampling error in 2014 we will see it in the 2015 report.

Equality Commission 24th Monitoring Report

2014-12-13T00:21:00.000+00:00

Talks on parades, flags, the legacy of the past, outstanding issues of the Good Friday and other agreements and financial issues look set to fail yet again due to the inability of Unionists to compromise. As demographics change Unionists must surely realise that they would be better off cutting a deal now from a position of strength rather than in a few years down the line when the increasing Catholic population turns into increasing Nationalist political representation. This is because if the correlation between religion and voting patterns remains strong, Unionists might find that when the time comes to move from the "not an inch" mentality that they have no cards left to play.

The latest snapshot of demographic change can be seen in the 24th Monitoring Report. The report carried out annually by the Equality Commission provides a breakdown of the community background of the monitored workforce in the North of Ireland in the prior year.

The latest publication tells us that in 2013 Catholics made up 47.0% of the workforce and Protestants made up 53.0%. The Catholic share continues to increase as the Protestant share declines (by around 0.4% per annum). In 2013 there was a 0.8% swing on prior year figures. We are rapidly approaching parity.

The reason for the convergence can be explained by the net effect of those entering and exiting the workforce on a yearly basis.

Catholics (52.0%) again had a greater proportion of Applicants than Protestants (48.0%). This trend is accelerating as school leavers and graduates (which are majority Catholic) enter the workforce.

In 2013 the Catholic share of the Appointees to the workforce increased by 1.5% to 52.4% suggesting that the slight decline in 2012 was temporary and the overall trend of increasing Catholic appointees from 44.8% in 2001 continues.

One would expect the vast majority of Leavers of the workforce, do so due to retirement. We know that Protestants make up approximately two thirds of people of retirement age. It is therefore quite puzzling why Protestants only account for 50.7% of leavers. The Catholic share was 49.3%.

New talks to commence

2014-10-08T13:05:00.002+01:00

Fresh all party talks with British, Irish and US government involvement are to begin in a couple of weeks.

Nationalist parties have reacted positively to the talks aimed at breaking the deadlock on flags, parades, the legacy of the past and the deadlock over the implementation of welfare cuts. Other outstanding issues will no doubt also be brought to the table.

Unionists on the other hand have reacted along predicable lines. Pre-conditions have been set. The same people who reneged on agreed programme for government polices, refused to accept the Haass compromise proposals and walked out of all party talks have demanded that the Irish Government not be involved in matters "which are internal to Northern Ireland". The second pre-condition is that a Commission of Inquiry be set up to investigate the decision by the Parades Commission on the Ardoyne parade.

The Anglo Irish Agreement in 1985 gave the Irish government an official say into matters concerning the North. This input was strengthened in the Good Friday Agreement negotiations. The Irish government are co-guarantors of the GFA along with the British government. The Irish government are the government of the hundreds of thousands of Irish citizens in the North.

Unionists are ignoring these facts and once again playing to the tune of extreme right wing elements within Loyalism. The Irish government will be there at the table whether Unionists like it or not. There needs to be a counter balance to the DUP/UUP/Conservative & Unionist Party axis and the British governments partisan approach to unionism. Therefore Irish and US government involvement is not only welcome but necessary.

The calls by the Unionist alliance (DUP/UUP/TUV/UKIP/UDA/UVF/OO) for a Commission of inquiry is part of their "graduated response" in retaliation to a Parades Commission determination that the Orange Order could not march through the Nationalist Ardoyne neighbourhood twice in one day. 18 mass demonstrations were to be organised across the North if the SOS did not agree to their demands.

Yesterday the Secretary of State Thersea Villiers announced she would appoint a panel of "experts" to investigate the contentious North Belfast parade. This Parades Panel clearly undermines the Parades Commission. The SOS has capitulated to Unionist threats and pre-conditions and in doing so has rewarded their negativity and intransigence.

Both Nationalist parties have stated that they will not engage with any body that undermines the Parades Commission. The combined unionist leadership stated they would be seeking further clarification from the SOS on "some of the panels terms of reference, membership, functions and reporting. Our objective is to resolve issues in parading and we want to ensure the panel is capable of achieving that objective". Translated this basically means "We will only consider the panel legitimate if it gives us what we want".

The British government have also made threats before the talks have begun. We have been told under no uncertain terms that unless implementation on welfare cuts are agreed during the talks there will be no devolution of corporation tax. This on top of a threat of an £87m fine if these cuts are not implemented.

So bad faith by the Unionists and British governments are the theme in the run up to these talks. Pre-conditions and threats have been made. The Nationalist opening position during these talks must be that before any new agreement is even discussed there must be a commitment and a timetable for the implementation of all outstanding issues of previous agreements. This includes the North-South consultative forum, the Irish Language Act and the Bill of Rights. Failure to agree to this will mean the talks will fail, Stormont falls and Joint Authority begins. The world will see that blame lies solely with the Unionist/British side and their bad faith before the talks had commenced.

LucidTalk Poll 2014

2014-09-29T14:20:00.000+01:00

BORDER POLL

In the aftermath of the Scottish Referendum on Independence which was defeated 55% to 45% there has been renewed calls for a similar referendum here in Ireland on the constitutional future of 'Northern Ireland'.

This morning I note the Irish Independent article (I know, I know!) "Northerners want a vote on removing the border. LucidTalk surveyed 1,089 voters on behalf of Independent News and Media (I know, I know!) around the time of the Scottish Referendum. Excluding don't knows 56.2% said they wanted a referendum and 43.8pc didn't.

The GFA states that a border poll will be called when the British Secretary of State feels there is support for Irish Unity. To me this is clear. The trigger for the Independence Referendum in Scotland was the achievement of a majority by the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) in Holyrood. Similarly election results which return more Nationalist MLAs than Unionists will be the catalyst for a border poll here.

So achieving a Nationalist majority in Stormont needs to be the goal. In order to achieve this sooner rather than later, the problem of voter apathy needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency.

Sinn Féin who has an excellent record of getting it's vote out needs to do more to appeal to disillusioned dissidents on one hand while making inroads into middle class votes on the other.

The SDLP needs to get it's house in order. They need to become visible and relevant to the electorate again if they are to get their vote out. They need to learn from this years European Election where they lost much of their traditional vote to a Nationalist candidate running for the middle of the road Alliance party. They need to forge links with the Irish Labour Party.

Fianna Fáil need to keep their promise and organise and contest elections in the North. Fine Gael should practice what they preach when they state "a true Irish party should represent all Irish citizens". Labour need to establish closer ties with the SDLP.

More parties mean more choice and more choice means more votes.

OPINION POLL

In addition to being asked whether they support a border poll respondents were also asked how they would vote in such a border poll.

Opinion Polls in the North are mainly carried out by Unionist leaning media outlets and often the questions are loaded to give the "correct" result. Often their results have been discredited where party support per opinion poll have been far from accurate when compared with party support per election results.

The latest poll is no different. Respondents were given three options - Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years time and No for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.

Do you see what they did there? They broke the Yes option into two knowing full well that current economic conditions in Ireland and Britain would steer supporters of unity to the unity in 20 years time option. This would allow them to concur that support for unity at this time was very low. This could then be interpreted as support for a United Ireland being low.

So did it work? The results show that when excluding the don't knows, only 7.7% wanted unity now, 32.5% wanted unity in 20 years time and 59.8% wanted to remain in the UK. If we hear Unionists banging on about how there is only about 7% support for Irish Unity, we can conclude that it has worked.

Even with the scepticism held for Unionist leaning opinion polls let us take the results at face value. 40.2% of the electorate support Irish Unity and 59.8% support the status quo.

This is actually quite a good result for Nationalism for the following reasons:

Support for Scottish Independence stood at 30% two years before the referendum was called and the debate began. The actual result of the referendum was 45% in favour. It would have been more were it not for the scaremongering tactics of the British elites.

To have over 40% of an electorate voting for something they do not know anything about is a fantastic starting point. Nobody knows what a United Ireland would entail. No green paper on unity has been produced. How would the 26 County voters have voted on the Lisbon Treaty before the terms and conditions of the treaty were set out? A lot less than 40% I would imagine.

Demographics. As the Catholic community grows so too will the Nationalist community. Logically an increasing Nationalist electorate should show increased support for Irish Unity in future polls. This poll also reveals that a majority of 18-24 year olds are pro-unity.

Economics. It's the economy, stupid. There is a train of thought that people would be better off financially in the UK. The theory goes that because the UK government provides an annual subsidy of c£10bn (or considerably less if defence spending etc. is taken out) that the provision of the block grant would simply transfer to the Irish government in the event of a United Ireland. This argument, to coin a phrase is economically illiterate.

The block grant only exists because NI exists as part of the UK. British economic policy is dictated by South East England for South East England. By keeping the economic core of the UK based around London, other regions inevitably form the periphery and suffer economically. To counter this they are given a subsidy and low quality public sector jobs.

A United Ireland would see economic policy tailored to what was in the best interests of Northern Ireland. This is because the economic needs of the North are almost exactly the same as economic needs in the rest of Ireland. That is an environment which allow sectors such as agriculture, tourism and foreign investment to flourish.

A United Ireland is the best option to provide the North with the economic levers it needs to rebalance it's economy, generate extra revenue and reduce spending waste (duplication of services etc.) to an extent whereby the block grant argument is redundant. Essentially the North of Ireland would be able to pay it's own way rather than being net recipient reliant on scraps from the English tax payer.

The electorate will be shown that the argument "the South couldn't afford us" is a false argument. They will be informed of the degree to which the North as it currently exists is a basket case economy. They will be guided to every economic indicator which shows a superior quality of life and standard of living in the South. They will make up their mind as to which option they would be better off with economically.

Health. There is also a train of thought that the electorate in the North would not vote to replace it's free NHS with the expensive HSE in the South. How often do you hear people highlight that you need to pay €50 to see a doctor in the South. For clarification Healthcare in the South is free. It's called a medical card. Those who pay can well afford it. Also the South is already moving to a free universal system.

A green paper on Unity needs to state that in the event of a United Ireland the government will legislate for universal healthcare system which will be free at the point of use. As stated by David McCann over on Slugger O'Toole "argue for a system that is more efficient (than the NHS) and puts an end to long waiting lists, take those lemons and make some lemonade, by taking the current problems in the HSE and address solutions that a united system can give".

So in the not too distant future if demographic trends continue and the correlation between politics and religion remains strong and are demonstrated in election results, we will have a border poll. Once a green paper on Irish Unity is produced (similar to the Scottish white paper) the debate will begin in earnest. In addition to the debates over economics and health, there will be arguments over social justice, education and the economy and the economy and the economy. I have every confidence that the arguments in favour of Irish Unity are superior to arguments for the status quo. Convincing the supposedly one in five Catholics who according to this poll are not supportive of Irish Unity will result in convincing a minority agnostic Protestants that a United Ireland makes sense.

And after the pro UK movement has lost the debate they will resort to scaremongering as they did in Scotland. We need to be ready to counter this better than the Scottish Nationalists did.

But why wait until a Nationalist majority in Stormont to start the debate. Why not start it now?

(chart c/o Belfast Telegraph)

Scottish Independence Referendum: Yes 45% No 55%

2014-09-29T13:46:00.000+01:00

45% voted Yes, 55% voted No. Scotland's bid for independence has failed .........for now.

The Scottish are now the only country in the world to have voted against it's independence.
Have the Scottish people bottled a once in a lifetime opportunity to take control of Scotland into the hands of the Scottish people? Did the scaremongering of the No campaign do enough to sway undecided voters?

Back in 2012 when the referendum was first announced polls for independence showed support for Independence at between 30% and 40%. I predicted that this support would rise closer to the vote and that there was no better time for a referendum than a Scotland ruled by a Tory government in the middle of a crippling austerity agenda. However the closeness of the result means that the issue will not go away.

We now await what extra powers are devolved to Scotland and the effect this will have in providing extra powers to the Northern Assembly.

Four Green Fields

2014-06-07T15:07:00.002+01:00

As the dust settles on the Local and European elections, it is clear that the story of the elections has been the rise in Sinn Féin. A rise that manifests itself with triple the number of SF councillors and the election of Lynn Boylan, Martina Anderson, Matt Carthy and Liadh Ní Riada to the European Parliament in each of the four constituencies. A rise that dramatically changes the Irish political landscape.

We find ourselves in a new political landscape not because Sinn Féin has a monopoly on Irish Nationalism, far from it. It is because we now have a situation where we will have proper left and right politics. No more will we have a mish mash of coalitions from opposite political spectrums. We will either have a conservative government or a left leaning government.

Already in Kerry County Council we see for the first time ever an alliance formed between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If it can be done in Kerry where some of the most hideous events of the Civil War took place, it can be done at a National level. The next government will be a FF/FG grand coalition. That will only be replaced by a left leaning coalition headed by the Shinners. The rise of Sinn Féin has ended the Irish Civil War!

The rise of Sinn Féin also poses serious questions for the SDLP, Labour and Fianna Fáil. The SDLP vote has virtually collapsed from it's hay day of the John Hume and Seamus Mallon era. As the party struggle to stay relevant their support continues to decline. They have now been overtaken in their heartland of Derry as the largest party by Sinn Féin. However their loss in support to Sinn Féin occurred in previous elections. This time their voters stayed at home or to a lesser extent lent their vote to the pro United Ireland Alliance candidate Anna Lo.

Alliance's resolve under sustained attack from Loyalists furious with the party's decision to remove the Union Jack from Belfast City Hall except for designated days has also led to more green votes for Alliance at the expense of the SDLP. The removal of the flag is significant as it led to a surge in the turnout rate of Unionists. Combined with a continuing trend of apathy among Nationalists and a greener Alliance vote (70% of their transfers in the European election went to the SDLP) the result was a combined Nationalist vote of 38.5% the lowest for many years.

Labour as expected were annihilated in the Local and European elections. The party promised the sun, moon and stars to the electorate before the last General Election. Given the economic climate and their status as junior party in the government coalition they were never going to be able to deliver. They sold their soul. The electorate took their revenge. The space they once held is now occupied by SF and other small left leaning parties. Their is no way back. Or is there?

To me the solution for both the SDLP and Labour is obvious. The two should merge. "Labour, The Social, Democratic and Nationalist Party". It makes sense the more you think of it. Both occupy the same left of centre sphere in the political spectrum. Both are in decline. The SDLP are accused of not being Nationalist enough. What better way to highlight Nationalist credentials by becoming an All Ireland Party. Labour reeling from an annihilation in the elections need to dosomething radical to recover.

Fianna Fáil performed well at local level. Given the fact that they were the party that killed the Celtic Tiger by overspending to the extent of eroding competitiveness and spearheaded the economic collapse of the country by fuelling a property boom without regulating the banks, I would say they performed very well. However the party failed to get a candidate elected to the European Parliament other than Brian Crowley in the South. The Nationalist vote has gone to Sinn Féin and it is hard to see how they will get it back. I mean how can a party call itself "The Republican Party" yet organise on a 26 county partitionist basis. It's a walking contradiction. They need to follow through on their commitment to organise and contest elections in the North.

In the North the Nationalist voter turnout is in decline. The Unionist voter turnout is increasing. This is counteracting the demographic change that is occurring. Before the election we had the obligatory Unionist scaremongering about their being too many Unionist Parties which would split the Unionist vote. Rather than split the Unionist vote it maximised the Unionist vote. Voters had more choice, more people knocking on their doors and more publicity.

Nationalists on the other hand had only two left leaning parties to vote for. An invisible SDLP and a Sinn Féin struggling to shake off the shackles of the Troubles. Who are the Catholic Nationalist Republican community conservative in outlook to vote for? Who are CRNs with a strong business ethic to vote for? Who are CRNs who hold strong Catholic beliefs on same sex marriage and abortion supposed to vote for? Nationalism need more choice, more parties and more focus on addressing voter apathy. It needs more cooperation. The SDLP refuses to cooperate with SF in marginal seats in Westminster and Assembly elections. SF discourages voters from transferring to the SDLP. The result is more Unionists in a position where they can dominate.

Belfast - Council Election Preview

2014-05-14T20:15:00.001+01:00

In previewing the new Belfast Council I am bowing to the superior knowledge of Noel McAdam in the Belfast Telegraph, 'Irish Observer' in the Vote UK Forum, the renowed statistician Nicholas Whyte on Slugger O'Toole and 'Faha' over on Bangordub's excellent blog.

Belfast once a Unionist dominated stronghold is on the verge of shifting to overall Nationalist control. The 'fleg' controversy has added additional emphasis.

The consensus is that Nationalists will just fall short of an outright majority of 30, this time. However with 34 seats in play, an increased turnover and a willingness to transfer could see a major and historic win for Nationalism. It would be interesting to watch the fallout among Unionism over the loss or surrender or sell out of the hugely significant and symbolic local Council.

Peace Monitoring Report No. 3

2014-05-07T21:35:00.001+01:00

The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report is an annual report published by the Community Relations Council which provides us with a range of data on life in the North.

The 2014 Report provides us with some striking figures on the demographic change in which it is widely accepted is occurring.

The image above confirms what we know from the Census. The "tipping point" three years on from the census is the age 39. That is, for all ages below this age Catholics make up a majority. For all ages above this age Protestants are in the majority. Most older people are Protestant, most younger people are Catholic. The greater the age the greater that proportion of Protestants in the population.

In Belfast, Catholics make up 49% of the population a mere 1% off an outright majority. Protestants make up 42%. Will the next report show Catholics at the magic 50%?

Other interesting facts findings include:

The report finds that 60% of entrants to higher education are Catholic and 60% are female.
The highest achievers in education are Catholic girls
The report sees the Catholic middle classes as the big winner from the peace process so far. Their income levels and educational qualifications are now marginally higher than their Protestant counterparts and their numbers look like rising to eventually create a Catholic majority.
Feeling Irish and wanting a united Ireland both peaked in the Celtic tiger years but once the Irish banking crisis hit in people didn’t identify with Irish unity so strongly.
The workforce is becoming |increasing female (52.4% in 2010) and increasingly Catholic.
Educational achievement decreases across the gender, religious and class lines until it bottoms out with poorer |Protestant boys who don’t qualify for free school meals.

Political Betting

2014-04-20T23:48:00.000+01:00

I have long since reached the conclusion that one cannot make money from gambling. The people that do are what you would call professional gamblers. Bookies are rarely wrong. Nonetheless I do enjoy a day at the races and the occasional bet. I do it for the 'craic' and maybe to create more of an interest in a sporting event. I also like to view odds offered in order to determine likely future outcomes.

A €10 accumulator on Sinn Féin winning a seat in each of the four constituencies in the European Elections (being held on Thursday 22nd and Friday 23rd of May) returns a whopping €11.67! A dead cert in betting speak. This will be a massive boost for SF.

If SF winning 4 seats isn't a dead cert, Martina Anderson topping the poll in the Northern constituency certainly is. Odds being offered are 1/100. A €10 bet returns €1.10. Nationalist hopes of winning the third seat look likely to be dashed as Alex Attwood is priced at 8/1. The betting in full is:

Martina Anderson (SF)

1/100

Diane Dodds (DUP)

1/20

Jim Nicholson (UUP)

1/4

Jim Allister (TUV)

5/2

Alex Attwood (SDLP)

8/1

Anna Lo (Alliance)

25/1

Tina McKenzie (NI21)

50/1

Ross Brown (Green)

50/1

Henry Reilly (UKIP)

66/1

A Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition is the bookies favourite to form the next government at 5/4. Unthinkable just a few short years ago, the rise of Sinn Féin (over 20% on previous three opinion polls) may achieve proper left vs. right politics. Labour will not form the next government. Even though FG/Labour are priced at 13/8, I think Labour are in for an all merciful shock from the electorate. They have sold their sole and the electorate will not forgive their lies. A FF/Sinn Féin government is 8/1. SF will certainly find it tempting to be in power during the centenary of 1916 but if they have any sense they will force FF and FG into a coalition and wait.

Also of interest is the result of the Scottish Independence referendum. No is favourite at 1/4. Yes is 5/2. However other than the odds the underlying trend is also an important indicator. The odds for the Yes vote have been falling continuously. This is consistent with the opinion polls which now have the Yes side at 48% (excluding undecided) and on the brink of securing a historic victory in the referendum.