EA WorldView

Introducing a New EA WorldView

Scott Lucas — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 04:55:36 +0000

Later this morning, we will launch a new EA WorldView --- a new logo and a new website which will be reader-friendly, with quick and easy-to-navigate access to our coverage and analysis.

Much of the new EAWV will be familiar. We will have the latest news and interpretations from Syria, Iran, and the Middle East, including the manoevres of those inside and outside the region from Washington to London to Moscow. We will feature Animated Guides and Video Analyses. We will host a vibrant Comments section, bringing in ideas and news from our readers.

At the same time, we will have new features and possibilities. In time, we will expand coverage to other key areas. As well as immediate analysis, we will offer in-depth explanations and forecasts. EA Solutions will provide access to our staff, on a group and a 1-to-1 basis.

Our thanks to all of you for your support over the last 4 1/2 years. We look forward to welcoming you to our new home, as well as seeing you on Twitter.

Syria Today: Opposition Repeats --- No Participation in International "Peace" Conference

Scott Lucas — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 12:15:25 +0000

Government forces move through Qusayr, captured by the Syrian military last Wednesday

Syria Feature: Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq
Middle East Today: Libya --- At Least 25 Killed in Clashes Between Protesters and Government-Backed Militia
Saturday's Syria Today: UN Appeal on "Record" Aid for Syrians --- Significant Step or Meaningless Gesture?<

The opposition Syrian National Coalition has reiterated its refusal to participate in a proposed international conference.

"What is happening in Syria today completely closes the doors on any discussions about international conferences and political initiatives," George Sabra, Coalition, told a press conference in Istanbul. "The war declared by the regime and its allies in the region has reached a level we cannot ignore."

Last week, regime force and Hezbollah allies captured the town of Qusayr, near the Lebanese border, after a three-week siege and then re-claimed nearby villages.

Sabra said just before those developments that the opposition would not attend a peace conference while Iranian elements and Hezbollah were supporting Syrian troops on the ground.

Before that, the Coalition had set the departure of President Assad as a pre-condition for any talks about a political resolution and transitional government.

Photo: Pro-Hezbollah Demonstrators Attack Bus In Beirut

Following our earlier report about clashes on Sunday near the Iranian embassy in Bir Hassan, southern Beirut over the roles of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria image from an incident, the image below show pro-Hezbollah demonstrators attacking a bus carrying anti-Hezbollah demonstrators in front of the embassy.

#Hezbollah supporters attack a bus carrying anti-Hezbollah protesters in front of the Iranian embassy in #Beirut twitter.com/WaelYaman/stat…
— Wael Yaman (@WaelYaman) June 9, 2013

Insurgents Kill Iraqi Border Guard

Iraqi officials say that Syrian insurgents on Sunday opened fire on two Iraqi border posts, killing one guard and wounding two others.

Colonel Nayif Zaili said Syrian rebels fired on two posts which lay two kilometres from the Al-Waleed border crossing.

The Syrian side of the crossing remains under the control of the regime, despite attempts by insurgents to seize it for several months.

State TV: Documents Show Qatar Asked Insurgents to Defend Qusayr to Protect Israel

1 Dead Amid Anti-Hezbollah Protests in Beirut

An unarmed Lebanese man has been killed after groups clashed in southern Beirut following a protest over the roles of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.

The incident happened at about lunchtime near the Iranian embassy in Bir Hassan, where demonstrators had gathered to challenge the Iranian and Hezbollah support of the Assad regime.

Five others are said to have been injured in the shooting. It was not clear who started the gunfire; however, a journalist for Beirut's Daily Star on the scene reported "men in black shirts with yellow ribbons around their arms" --- indicating they were from Hezbollah shoving protesters away from the site as they exited buses. The protesters had little time to raise their banners before they were beaten up with sticks.

The men in black shirts then opened fire in the air to disperse the demonstrators.

Al Jazeera reported that the protesters against Iran and Hezbollah belong to the party of Ahmad Asaad's party, a Shia politician who is anti-Hezbollah and belongs to the March 14 Movement.

The Lebanese army is now reported to be in control of the area around the embassy, with barricades set up on the road.

Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claim that 33 people have been killed today, including 20 in Damascus and its suburbs.

Casualties

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 63,071 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 98 from Saturday. Of the deaths, 48,690 were civilians, a rise of 60 from yesterday.

Aid to Civilians Amid Kurdish-Insurgent Tension in North

Claimed photograph of aid to residents in Efrin, where Kurdish militia and insurgents, including of the Free Syrian Army, have been clashing for weeks:

Iran Special: EA's Guide to the Presidential Election

Joanna Paraszczuk — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 07:43:17 +0000

As part of its daily Iran briefings, EA WorldView will be providing detailed coverage of the Presidential campaign and the election, scheduled for 14 June.

Follow the developments in our Iran Today section, latest analysis. and latest feature on the Presidential debates.

New to the election and/or Iran? Get up to speed with our Animated Guide and our special section, with a description of the process and details of the key factions.

Iran Today: Presidential Election --- Is Ali Larijani The Real Winner?

Joanna Paraszczuk — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 07:28:35 +0000

Ali Larijani & The Supreme Leader --- Credit: Mehr News

Parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani chose not to stand in this year's Presidential election. But far from withdrawing from the political scene, Larijani may have made a shrewd move which stands to increase his power after June 14.

As the principlist candidates not only fail to find unity but reveal growing divisions amongst themselves, Larijani is able to watch and wait, and look to use his position to broker power with whoever becomes the next President.

For example, should Jalili be chosen as President, "Larijani will roll over the attempted choice of cabinet ministers in August," according to an EA correspondent in Iran.

The correspondent continues: "Larijani's strategy is very smart. He will be the one to whom conservatives turn after these elections".

On Sunday, Mehr News reported comments from Larijani, quoting him as saying that the authenticity of the council and Presidential elections should not be questioned and that the candidates must guard against enemy attempts to abuse the process.

The philosophy of holding those two races together was so that the country was not constantly engaged in elections, Larijani said.

Rouhani Tells Supporters: "The People Don't Want [The Incumbent Government] Anymore!

Moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani has tweeted a video --- with English subtitles --- of Friday's campaign rally in Tehran showing his supporters cheering as he tells them: "The people don't want you [the incumbent government] any more…. God is Greatest! God is Greatest!"

Rouhani tells the crowd:

"All of us…. we seek change…. prudence and hope [the slogan of the Rouhani campaign].

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili Edition

Saeed Jalili has commented on Iran's sovereignty over three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf --- Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs --- saying that they are an integral part of Iran.

We have no joke about our islands as we have no joke about our legitimate right for peaceful nuclear program. #Iranelection #Jalili
— Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) June 9, 2013

The islands are disputed with the United Arab Emirates.

Jalili also cautioned Iranians about the dire consequences of doubt and cynicism, saying that the enemy was attempting to undermine the country's strengths after realizing their "anti-Iran propaganda" was going nowhere.

BBC Persian reported that in his television documentary, Jalili revealed details of the arrest of Jundallah leader Abdul Malik Rigi.

Fars: Guardian Council May Disqualify Moderate Rouhani

In an indication of growing concern over the campaign of moderate Hassan Rouhani, Fars News --- close to the Revolutionary Guards --- has declared, from an "informed source", that the Guardian Council will discuss the candidacy tomorrow.

The source said the Council will re-examine Rouhani's qualifications, considering charges that he is being supported by leaders of "sedition" and lawlessness.

"Issues Protesters Raised Are Still Very Much Alive"

EA WorldView's Scott Lucas concludes a Washington Post feature, "Iran's Fragmented Opposition":

Is there still an organized Green Movement? No. Whatever was there, the authorities have been successful in breaking it up with detentions and crackdowns.

But the issues the protesters raised --- accountability, political transparency, reforms, openness --- are still there and very much alive. They just have no cohesive [means for expression.

Authorities Block Memorials for Ayatollah after Isfahan Protests

Following last week's outburst of protest during a funeral march, memorial services for reformist Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri have been cancelled in Tehra and Qom.

The Qom service was scheduled for Friday, but was blocked by authorities. The opposition Kaleme website said the memorial will now only take place in Najafabad.

In Isfahan, some mourners broke into chants calling for freedom for detained opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and, referring to the Supreme Leader, shouted, "Death to the dictator."

Ayatollah Taheri critised the regime's response to protests after the Presidential election in 2009, which he said was fraudulent.

Abrar Newspaper Raided, Suspended

The Abrar daily newspaper has stopped publication after its office was raided and sealed.

The last post on the Abrar website is from Monday.

Conservative Clerics Support Velayati?

According to Fars, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi has said that the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom supports the Supreme Leader's senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati for the Presidency.

However, according to Radio France International's Persian channel, Ayatollah Rajabi has said that "not even 1/3" of the Seminary's members endorse Velayati.

Rezaei: Youth Are Asset And Resource

Independent Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei said Saturday that Iran's youth an "asset and a resource" for running the country.

In an interview on State television, Rezaei said that if elected he also planned to prepare Iranian youth for the country's future.

Rezaei also discussed a creative plan to help young people to marry by providing them with dowries of up to 23 million romans. The former IRGC commander said that his campaign team had identified factories in Iran that produce home appliances and which could provide young people with such dowries.

According to Rezaei's plan, his administration would provide these factories with money to boost their production of home appliances. In return, the factories would contribute to dowries as well as providing young people with coupons.

The full interview, in Persian, can be seen below.

Rouhani Posts Video Of Tehran Rally

Hassan Rouhani's campaign team continues to portray the moderate candidate as attracting a large amount of popular support, posting another video this morning of Saturday's rally in a Tehran stadium.

The Rouhani campaign also tweeted a link to a set of photographs taken at the event by ISNA. The photographs include this image of two women supporters, one if whom holds a picture of Rouhani with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, while the second woman holds a folded newspaper, with a photo of Rouhani.

Credit: ISNA

Will There Be A Fourth Presidential Debate?

In the wake of Friday's third --- and supposedly final --- televised Presidential debate on State TV, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has said it may hold a fourth event, if it gets approval.

Press TV reports that IRIB's public relations MD, Taqi Sohrabi, said that the Presidential candidates themselves as well as Iranians had asked for more debates.

Some of the Presidential candidates, however, have slammed IRIB over the debate. Independent candidate Mohsen Rezaei complained about being censored and moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani criticized the format of the debates:

Middle East Today: Libya --- At Least 25 Killed in Clashes Between Protesters and Government-Backed Militia

Scott Lucas — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 07:02:00 +0000

Turkey: Massive Istanbul Anti-Government Rally as PM Erdogan Addresses Supporters in Ankara

A visual story of the competing rallies for and against the Erdogan Government --- first, Sunday's large gathering in Istanbul's Taksim Square, where mass protests began nine days ago:

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told supporters in Ankara tonight, "How can you attack my police?...We are going to show patience, but patience has a limit as well":

Yemen: 1 Dead in Fighting

One protester has been killed and 10 people injured, including four guards, in clashes with Houthi demonstrators who were demanding the release of political detainees.

An official said the Houthis, who have been demanding autonomy in the north of the country, fired at guards while trying to storm intelligence headquarters in Sanaa on Sunday. He claimed some protesters were arrested for smuggling weapons and drugs.

Meanwhile, hundreds of supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh demonstrated in Sanaa against the release of 17 men who were detained in connection with a June 2011 explosion that injured Saleh in his palace mosque.

Saleh stepped down in early 2012 as a transitional Government was put in place.

Tunisia: IMF Approves Major Loan

The International Monetary Fund has approved a two-year, $1.74 billion loan for Tunisia, giving Tunis access to foreign currency urgently needed to help balance its budget.

The Tunisian Government has devoted 1/3 of its 2013 budget to infrastructure projects, which it says will create short-term job opportunities for youth as well as helping private businesses.

However, Tunisia is running a 6% budget deficit this year, and political tensions over a draft Constitution have prevented Parliament from debating legislation allowing the government to apply for Islamic finance instruments.

The IMF money, like most loans from the Washington-based organization, comes with strings

The IMF has set conditions on the loan, including restructuring of Tunisia’s banking sector. Analysts believe that non-performing loans on the books at state-owned banks amount to billions of dollars.

Turkey: Protests Continue, But PM Erdogan Defiant Over "Handful of Looters"

Moving through the country to gather support against nation-wide protests, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to concede any ground. He told supporters who had greeted him at Adana airport:

We won't do what a handful of looters have done. They burn and destroy. ... They destroy the shops of civilians. They destroy the cars of civilians. They are low enough to insult the prime minister of this country.

He urged his supporters to avoid violence themselves and predicted that he would defeat his opponents during local elections in March: "As long as you walk with us, the Justice and Development Party administration will stand strong. As long as there is life in my body, your prime minister and your party chairman, God willing, will not be deterred by anything."

He then traveled to the city of Mersin to make a similar speech and to open new sports facilities.

Later Sunday, Erdogan will speak to his supporters in the capital Ankara.

On the 10th day of mass protests against the Government, demonstrators near Istanbul's Taksim Square yell to Erdogan, "Tayyip, Resign!"

Libya: Deadly Clashes in Benghazi

At least 25 people have been killed in Benghazi in eastern Libya in clashes during Saturday's protests outside the headquarters of the Libya Shield Brigade, which is working with the Ministry of Defence.

Dozens more were wounded, according to medical officials.

Demonstrators had gathered outside the headquarters of the Brigade demanding the disbanding of militias, including those which fought during the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. They specifically called for the Brigade t leave its premises.

One witness said he had seen around 200 protesters. While most of them were unarmed, a few had AK-47 rifles, although he said he did not see them used.

A spokesman for the Libyan's Army Chief of Staff, Ali al-Sheikhi, described the Libya Shield Brigade as "a reserve force under the Libyan army." He said an attack on the brigade "is considered an attack against a legal entity".

Iran Feature: A Presidential Election on Twitter

Scott Lucas — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 07:00:00 +0000

London-based NGO Small Media, a self-described "action lab helping the free flow of information and creative expression in closed societies, with training, technology and research initiatives that focus on Iran", has published a report on the use of social media by Iran's Presidential candidates.

The report, covering 21-27 May, concludes that the "prevailing attitude is quite negative [about the election] among those on Twitter".

Small Media found that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was the person most "worth following" on Twitter, despite his disqualification by the Guardian Council almost a week earlier.

Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, was the subject of the most tweets; however, only 21% of the communication was positive.

Reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref was the least discussed with only 331 tweets, 59% of which were deemed "neutral". On the positive side, Aref --- frequently compared to Mostafa Moein, the main reformist candidate in the 2005 election, had no negative Twitter communication and a slight surge in numbers "liking" his Facebook page.

The most popular candidate, with 63% "positive" tweets was the moderate Hassan Rouhani. "Rowhani" --- an English variant of the surname --- was also second to "Iran" as the most frequently tweeted word in the Iranian election discussion.

[Editor's Note: The report probably under-estimated Rouhani's prominence on social media. It only appears to consider the spelling "Rowhani" and not "Rouhani" or "Rohani".]

The candidate with the most negative tweets was leading MP Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, with more than half expressing disapproval. The most re-tweeted post about the candidate was: "Media frenzy says: 'Political backbenchers are useless, Haddad-Adel is useless'."

The least-known of the candidates, Mohammad Gharazi, seems to have had a late surge in support, judging from the sudden increase in his unofficial (because of the Iranian ban) Facebook page --- it doubled in followers between 21 and 27 May.

Syria Feature: Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq

Scott Lucas — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 06:54:46 +0000

Activists with Jabhat al-Nusra FlagWriting for Al Jazeera English, Basma Atassi, claims that the head of Al Qa'eda, Ayman al-Zawahari, has intervened in a dispute between the Syrian insurgency Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq with a letter to the leaders of the two groups.

The clash arose in April when the head of the ISI, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, tried to claim oversight of Jabhat al-Nusra in a message. A senior JAN commander, Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, responded by asserting the insurgents' autonomy in Syria.

Media coverage incorrectly claimed that the ISI and JAN had "merged", as well as emphasising al-Joulani's reference to al-Zawahari as a "pledge of allegiance".

Instead, the challenge for Jabhat al-Nusra was that --- even as it tried to maintain indpendence from the Iraqi faction --- its fighters might join ISI. Atassi claims that al-Baghdadi went as far as to travel to the suburbs of Aleppo to open offices. Local conflicts in Syria's largest city followed, according to JAN sources, with fighters who joined ISI refusing to give flour to the committee distributing the supplies to residents.

Amid the conflict, Jabhat al-Nusra’s official publication, al-Manara al-Baydaa (the White Minaret), suspended publication after it posted al-Jowlani's objection to the ISI's statement.

So, according to Atassi, al-Joulani sent a letter to Zawahiri to arbitrate between the two groups.

Atassi continues, from JAN sources, that Zawahiri sent letters to al-Joulani and al-Baghdadi last week, ruling in favour of Jabhat al-Nusra and appointing a commander named Abu Khaled al-Soury as a personal emissary "to oversee the implementation of the accord".

Middle East Today: Turkey --- Ruling Party Says No Early Elections

Scott Lucas — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 18:02:02 +0000

Rally in Istanbul's Taksim Square today

Libya: 11 Killed in Benghazi Clashes

At least 11 people were killed and 35 wounded in clashes on Saturday between protesters and a Libyan militia, operating with Ministry of Defence approval, in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Residents said dozens of protesters rallied outside the headquarters of the Government-backed Libya Shield brigade, demanding the disbanding of militias who have yet to disarm fter the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in October.

The Libya Shield brigade is made up of former insurgent who say they are aligned with the Ministry of Defence. A Government spokesman said special forces from the Libyan military had arrived at the scene.

Yemen: National Dialogue Resumes

Yemen has begun the second round of its national dialogue, aiming to draft a new Constitution and prepare for elections in 2014.

The talks are part of a United Nations-brokered deal that removed Ali Abdullah Saleh after 33 years in power, with President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi leading a transition.

Hadi said the dialogue had taken steps towards "drawing the outlines of a new Yemen where justice, equality and freedom prevail. Yemen can no longer withstand more crises and there are many challenges."

Istanbul Mayor Calls For Concessions on Gezi Park

Taking a sharply different line from the defiance of Prime Minister Erdogan, Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş has said no shopping malls or residences will be built on the site of Gezi Park.

Turkey's mass protests were sparked last week by Government plans to build a replica Ottoman-era military barracks. Topbas said the barracks will still be built, but is likely to be a city museum or an exposition centre.

Topbaş said most of the trees of the park could be incorporated into the project, adding that out of the 563 trees in the park, 72 were fit to be moved and another 26 could also be planted again but with some risks.

Ruling AKP: No Early Parliamentary Elections

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has dismissed talk of an early election amid continuing protests against the Erdogan Government.

After a four-hour meeting of the AKP Executive Council, attended by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and senior officials, a spokesman said the Parliamentary vote will be held in 2015 as scheduled: "There is political stability. Fortunately, there is no reason to require an early election."

The spokesman said the Government was ready and open to listen to “reasonable” demands, but would not accept the call of protesters for top security personnel --- including the Minister of Interior minister, Istanbul’s Governor, and top police officers -- to be relieved of duty: “Our Prime Minister will not [dismiss] anyone whom he believes is not responsible." The Taksim Solidarity Platform has demanded that the interior minister, Istanbul’s governor and police who have brutalized protesters should be investigated and stripped of their duty.

Meanwhile, the AKP has decided to hold “unity and solidarity” rallies on 15 June in Ankara and the next day in Istanbul.

Iran Today: The IRGC, Basij and "Defeating The Enemy" In The Presidential Election

Joanna Paraszczuk — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 06:58:22 +0000

Basij leader Mohammad Reza Naqdi While there has been considerable speculation --- much in the form of polls --- about which of the eight Presidential candidates is in the lead in the run-up to the June 14 election, the question that nobody can answer is what the turnout will be on the day.

A low turnout would indicate that Iranians are either apathetic about the election or that they feel that the regime will manipulate the results, and so there is no point in voting.

Amid this uncertainty, senior IRGC and Basij leaders have warned this week that Iran's "enemies" were attempting to interfere in the Presidential election.

The Deputy Commander of the IRGC's Ground Forces, Brigadier General i, cautioned that Iran must beware of the enemy's "careful manipulation" of the election.

"Today, we are on the eve of an election that will decide the fate of the country, and we must be fully aware so that the enemy does not exploit the space of the election," he warned.

The commander of the Basij, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi, said that Iranians could help defeat the enemy by turning out en masse to vote in the elections.

Naghdi said that, in fact, Iran's enemies would be "astonished" on June 14 and would face another heavy defeat, because the Iranian people would create a political epic.

The deputy commander of the IRGC's political wing, Rasul Sanai Rad, also urged a high turnout, saying that this showed the national might of Iran and also indicated the level of trust people felt in the system.

The Supreme Leader's representative in the IRGC, Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, told people in Arak last week that a large turnout would demonstrate national might and sovereignty, but moreover would guarantee that the system's legitimacy was preserved and would "remove threats against the Iranian nation".

Rouhani Campaign Tweets Photo Of Tehran Mass Rally, + Video of Supporters Calling For Coalition

Moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani's campaign team tweeted a photograph of a rally at Tehran's Afrasiabi stadium and a video that shows supporters calling for a coalition between Rouhani and reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref.

Pro-Rouhani supporters tweeted other images of the rally, portraying a massive turnout and a surge in the support for the candidate.

Supporters of #Rouhani call for formation of coalition with #Aref (English subs, video from today) youtube.com/watch?v=XFDxyy… #hope #prudence
— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 8, 2013

Pic from today's mass #rally in support of #Rouhani in Tehran's 12,000-capacity Afrasiabi @stadium. #hope #prudence twitter.com/HassanRouhani/…
— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 8, 2013

Rouhani: I Had To Answer Qalibaf In Debate

An EA correspondent writes: the video below --- showing moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani in his car --- was recorded after last night's debate.

At the beginning of the video someone on the road tells Rouhani well done and the man with him says he appreciates Rouhani for the answers he gave in the debate, and asks him what he thought about it.

Rouhani says: "I didn’t want to answer him [Principlist candidate Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf] like that but when I saw that he was not telling the truth, I had to say something to make sure people understand everything properly and also for historical records. I had so many things to say but I wanted to follow morality. Unfortunately some people place justice and truth to one side in competition."

Ahmadinejad: Nuclear Talks Have Nothing to Do With Me

Confirming what EA has said for months, President Ahmadinejad has said that he is sidelined in Iran's negotiations over its nuclear programme.

Ahmadinejad, responding to allegations in the Presidential campaign, said, "People have said [lack of progress] is the fault of the government. I am not talking about the nuclear issue and do not intervene in the case Someone else is responsible."

Presidential Election: Haddad Adel Reconfirms No "Unity" Candidate

Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel has confirmed that --- contrary to months of promises from the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Committee, of which he is a member --- there will be no "unity" candidate in Friday's first-round election.

Haddad Adel said he would not withdraw, even for fellow Committee members Ali Akbar Velayati and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf:

Given my extensive experience and good relations with many managers, I can form a cabinet with efficient and revolutionary individuals on board. This is a reason of my decision to sign up in the first place and why I am planning to stay in the race.

Economy Watch: The Soaring Cost of Food

The BBC, citing the official Statistics Centre of Iran, offers some striking numbers about inflation between 2007 and 2013.

Sangak bread has almost doubled in cost. That, however, is only a small rise compared to a kilogramme of beef (470%), a litre of milk (350%), and a kilogramme of rice (7100%).

The national minimum wage has fallen more than 50% in real terms, while youth employment rose to 24.9% in 2012.

Has Rafsanjani Come Out In Support Of Rouhani?

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said that moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani is the "best choice" of the eight Presidential candidates, Mehr News and other sources are reporting this morning.

Rafsanjani: Rouhani is the best choice among the 8 candidates. #Iranelection
— Mehr News Agency (@MehrnewsCom) June 8, 2013

The report comes amid speculation that reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref may step down in favor of Rouhani, in order to unify the moderate- centrist- reformist vote behind a single candidate. As we noted in a separate analysis this morning, backing from Rafsanjani and former President Khatami will be essential if such a coalition is to take place.

Hezbollah Praises "Jalili the Resistor"

Presidential candidate and Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili has tweeted a picture he said came from his supporters in Lebanon --- presumably Hezbollah (if the image is genuine).

پوستر ارسالی از هواداران سعید جلیلی در لبنان #Iranelection #Jalili #Iran twitter.com/DrSaeedJalili/…
— Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) June 7, 2013

The image, in the colors of the Islamic Republic's flag, shows a photograph of a younger Jalili and the Arabic caption المقاوم --- the Resistor; the legend العدالة والحرية --- "Justice and Freedom", and then a current photograph of Jalili with the caption الدبلوماسي --- the Diplomatist.

Hanif Zarrabi-Kashani of the Wilson Center notes that the Qazvin News Network has provided short profiles of the eight candidates, with photographs of them and their children.

Mohsen Rezaei And Son

Regime "Harasses Radoio Farda Journalists"

The director of Radio Farda, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty's Persian service, has said that harassment against his reporters has increased in recent weeks.

"The harassment has intensified in the past several weeks, as the authorities take all possible precautions against anything that may challenge their control over the elections," Armand Mostofi said.

Radio Farda said it had documented nine incidents of harassment during May, in which reporters' family members in Iran have been interrogated and asked to persuade their relatives to stop working for Radio Farda or stay but work for Iranian intelligence, RFE/ RL report.

Iran Analysis: "Supreme Leader in a Real Mess" After Last Presidential Debate

Scott Lucas — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 05:55:29 +0000

Observations after Friday's third and final Presidential debate, following a conversation with a leading EA correspondent on Iran:

1. THE CONSERVATIVES AND PRINCIPLISTS FALL APART

The immediate headline that the debate was more interesting than the previous two, because of conflict among the eight candidates, does not begin to capture the extent of the division --- notably among those men who supposedly are close to the Supreme Leader's camp.

Our correspondent summarises, "This was a free-for-all in which all went after each other, including the [members of the Supreme Leader's] 2+1 Committee. This showed the three men of the 2+1 do not have anything in common."

One of the 2+1 members, the Supreme Leader's senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, criticised the others for not knowing about international affairs, advising them to read his book on the 1980s Iran-Iraq War.

Then Velayati got specific. He said that his colleague on the Committee, leading MP Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, was ignorant about diplomacy.

A heated argument followed with the third member of the 2+1, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Velayati, a long-time Foreign Minister, was boasting about his contacts in the 1980s and 1990s with world leaders like France's Francois Mitterand when Qalibaf snapped, "While you were drinking with Mitterand in the Elysee Palace, we were drinking French missiles on the war front [with Iraq]."

Velayati responded that Qalibaf had no idea re history, as the "drink with Mitterand" came long after the war was over.

Velayati's most interesting clash, however, was with Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council and lead nuclear negotiator.

Velayati went after Jalili over the two rounds of nuclear talks with the 5+1 Powers in February and April. The Supreme Leader's aide indicated a deal was on the table --- with three European countries tabling a proposal that would have suspended three key sanctions on the Islamic Republic --- but Jalili insisted on "all or nothing".

Velayati summarised, "Negotiations is not showing up and moralising with slogans."

2. THE DIVISION AMONG SUPREME LEADER'S INNER CIRCLE OVER NUCLEAR TALKS

The Velayati-Jalili confrontation offers a wider lesson beyond this election. Far from maintaining a unified line against the "West" on the nuclear programme, the Supreme Leader's advisors have been split for years over the approach. Velayati has been among the advisors seeking an accommodation, but --- at least in his account --- has been blocked by others who have refused to conclude a deal.

In another telling passage in the debate, Velayati said that a settlement was imminent in talks in 2007 between the head of the European Union, Javier Solana, and Iran's Ali Larijani --- now Speaker of Parliament --- but this was undermined by someone, presumably President Ahmadinejad, in a speech objecting to any agreement.

Our correspondent summarises:

This display really weakened Iran's hand in the nuclear negotiations.

Imagine if you are a member of the 5+1 watching this debate. You have one faction around Ayatollah Khamenei ready to talk, but you have another refusing.

With the inner circle very divided, you don't budge --- you wait for them to crack.

3. CAN THE SUPREME LEADER RESCUE THE SITUATION?

One obvious "solution" for this division is for the regime to decide on an outcome for the first-round ballot on 14 June and then make sure it happens. In the words of our correspondent, "The elephant in the room is whether the votes which are cast are the votes which wind up in ballot box."

Specifically, our correspondent --- who has been far from impressed from Saeed Jalili, on the campaign trail or in yesterday's debate --- believes that there is no way he can be among the top two vote-getters if turnout is high. So, "if Jalili is put through to the final round in a ballot with at least 60% participation, you can bet there has been manipulation."

But, if this is being considered by the Supreme Leader's camp, there is a major problem in comparison with the 2009 election. Then, it was only a question of ensuring that a single candidate --- President Ahmadinejad --- triumphed against the opposition.

This time, it is a matter of picking one or two candidates from among four --- Velayati, Haddad Adel, Qalibaf, and Jalili --- to go to the final ballot on 28 June. That step is likely to only increase division among conservatives and principlists, with resentment among the followers of those who are not chosen.

An alternative for the Supreme Leader is to sit on his hands at this point and not express any preference, waiting to see who is strongest in the first-round ballot. There is precedent for this: Ayatollah Khamenei did not go for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad until late in the 2005 campaign, tapping him over Qalibaf.

This time, however, waiting carries the risk that the squabbling amongst those around the Supreme Leader will only get worse, shaking an already fragile election process.

4. CAN THE MODERATES AND REFORMISTS TAKE ADVANTAGE?

The failure to find a "unity" candidate has opened up space for the two men who are not as close to the Supreme Leader --- "moderate" Hassan Rouhani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and reformist Mohammad Reza Aref.

The prospect of one of the two men making it to the final round --- almost unthinkable when Rafsanjani was barred from standing in the election --- is now real. While Rouhani did not capitalise on his recent surge in yesterday's debate, Aref was sharp. Our correspondent assesses, "He was sharp and did not shy away from the reformist legacy. If the election is not manipulated, that could bring support, especially among younger voters."

Reallistically, however, the best chance for Rouhani or Aref to be in the top two on 14 June is for one man to withdraw in favour of the other before the vote. Will that happen?

Our correspondent speaks bluntly:

That will only happen if former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Rafsanjani call publicly for a coalition.

If they do so, then we may have something special in this campaign.

Syria Today: UN Appeal on "Record" Aid for Syrians --- Significant Step or Meaningless Gesture?

Joanna Paraszczuk — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 05:23:25 +0000

On Friday, the United Nations launched an appeal for $5.2 billion --- the largest amount it has ever requested --- for aid operations in Syria and neighbouring countries.

Here's the catch: the UN had another appeal earlier this year for $3 billion --- and only $1.4 billion has been pledged.

The UN said last month that 5.2 million of Syria's pre-conflict population of 20.8 million people were either refugees or displaced inside the country. On Friday, the organisation estimated that the current number of 1.6 million refugees will reach 3.45 million by the end of 2013, with 6.8 million needing assistance inside the country.

The Wounded from Qusayr

Al Jazeera English reports from Arsal in Lebanon, where some of those wounded during the three-week battle for Qusayr have been taken:

Hezbollah Denies Its Fighters Captured In Damascus Province

Hezbollah's media relations office issued a statement Saturday denying a report that insurgents had captured several of its fighters in Damascus province.

"Hezbollah categorically denies these baseless reports," the statement reads.

The response comes after Local Coordination Committees announced on Friday that the Free Syrian Army had succeeded in capturing several Hezbollah and the Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade fighters in Damascus province after seizing "several posts west of Muadhamiyat as-Sham".

The Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade --- which first appeared around 14 months ago --- has said via social media that its aim is to defend the Shia Zaynab Shrine in southern Damascus. The Guardian's Martin Chulov profiled the group in a story earlier this week, noting that:

Interviews with serving and former members of Abu Fadl al-Abbas suggest that upwards of 10,000 volunteers – all of them Shia Muslims, and many from outside Syria – have joined their ranks in the past year alone. The group's raison d'etre is to be custodian of Shia holy sites, especially Sayyida Zeinab, a golden-domed Damascus landmark, but its role has taken it to most corners of Syria's war. It is now a direct battlefield rival, both in numbers and power, for Jabhat al-Nusra, the jihadist group that takes a prominent role among opposition fighting groups.

Demonstration In Aleppo

The video below shows a crowd of what appeared to be mostly boys and young men marching an unspecified neighborhood of Aleppo, many waving Islamic State of Iraq flags. Halab News Network, which posted the video, said that the marchers demanded the creation of an Islamic state in Syria.

Car Bomb In Homs

Eight people have been killed, including three women and a teenager, in a car bomb attack on a Shia neighborhood of Homs, Syrian state TV has reported.

State-run al-Ikhbariya TV said the car was booby-trapped.

Video: Scud Attack On Kfar Hamra And Ma'ara, Aleppo

The video shown below shows what activists said was a double Scud missile strike on Kfar Hamra, a village just outside Aleppo. Another strike took place in Ma'ara, west of Aleppo and roughly halfway between that city and the Turkish border, again according to activists.

Map showing the location of Kfar Hamra:

View Larger Map

LBCI in al-Bweida al-Sharqiya, al-Qusayr

Lebanese broadcaster LBCI sent a team of reporters and a camera crew to the village of al-Bweida al-Sharqiya on the northern outskirts of al-Qusayr. LBCI said that their team was able to enter the village after insurgent fighters left.

LBCI reporters said that the village was empty and that there were scenes of destruction.

The Syrian Army showed the reporter around an elementary school in al-Bweida and a soldier explained that it had been used by insurgents as a makeshift hospital. Empty metal-framed beds still remain in several of the schoolrooms --- the floors of which are covered in blood. Dressings and other medical supplies are stored on shelves in some of the rooms. Wounded insurgents from al-Qusayr were evacuated to the village after regime forces captured it.

LBCI also sent a crew into al-Qusayr on Friday, and were told by Syrian government officials that there were plans to clear the city --- all but destroyed after three weeks of heavy fighting --- so that residents could return to their homes.

State Media: Regime Forces Take Village Near Qusayr

State news agency SANA claims that regime forces "restored security and stability to al-Buweida al-Sharqiya" village, near Qusayr --- the strategic town re-claimed by the Syrian military this week --- and the Lebanese border.

An "official source" said the village was occupied after "eliminating the last gatherings of terrorists there".

Civilians and wounded fleeing the fighting in Qusayr had gone to al-Buweida.

Propaganda of the Day

State news agency SANA headlines that Syria's envoy to the UN in Geneva, Ambassador Fayssal al-Hamwi, has affirmed the regime's commitment to cooperation with the UN "in addressing humanitarian needs".

During a session on Friday over the UN's plan to meet humanitarian needs, al-Hamwi said Damascus had a plan "which includes around 100 projects covering various vital sectors".

The UN has been appealing to the regime for months to allow access to civilians in areas affected by the conflict, claiming more than 4 million people have been displaced inside the country. Last week, Damascus turned down an appeal by the Red Cross to reach those trapped in the besieged town of Qusayr.

However, Al-Hamwi "pointed out the great burden Syria is shouldering in terms of meeting needs and tackling challenges caused by targeting infrastructure".

Kurds v. Insurgents in the North

Claimed footage of Kurdish fighters retaking villages near Efrin from insurgents --- local militia have been fighting elements of the insurgency, including the Free Syrian Army, for weeks:

UN to Russia on Offer of Peacekeeping Troops: Thanks, But No Thanks

The United Nations said on Friday that it cannot accept Russia's offer to replace peacekeepers from Austria in the Golan Heights, because an agreement between Israel and Syria bars permanent members of the Security Council from the UN mission.

The UN expressed appreciation for Moscow's statement, made on Friday by President Vladimir Putin after Austria said it would recall its 380 troops from the 1000-strong monitoring force in the demilitarised zone between Syria and Israel-occupied territory.

The UN is asking others in the force, notably the Philippines and India, to increase their troop contributions and is looking at the possibility of new countries sending troops, while asking the Austrians to slow down their departure.

Casualties

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 62,973 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 124 from Friday. Of the deaths, 48,630 were civilians, a rise of 65 from yesterday.

Iran Special: Highlights From The Third Presidential Debate

Joanna Paraszczuk — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 15:01:47 +0000

Iran's Presidential race has, in many ways, turned into a contest not only between the eight individual candidates but perhaps even more so between the Principlist/ Conservative and the Reformist/Moderate camps.

Although Friday's Third Presidential debate was an opportunity for the candidates to set out their views and policies on foreign policy and politics, it also provided a space to explore this factional divide.

Principlist and conservative candidates --- Ali Akbar Velayati, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Gholam-Ali Haddad- Adel -- used the debate to criticize the Reformists and past Reformist governments, while Reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref and his moderate counterpart Hassan Rouhani slammed the Principlist movement and the current Ahmadinejad administration. Independent candidates Mohsen Rezaei and Mohammad Gharazi hit out at both factions and called for an end to factionalism.

Some of the main highlights of the debate (thanks to Al Jazeera English and Hassan Rouhani's campaign team, who live-tweeted the debate).

On Factionalism

Principlist candidate and Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili criticized the reformist Khatami administration for its foreign policy performance post September 11.

Rouhani slammed the principlist Qalibaf for his comments on foreign policy:

#Rouhani: I am surprised to hear #Ghalibaf claim foreign policy has been unsuccessful in general.
— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 7, 2013

Aref on the principlists:

#Aref: Part of the problem is that Principalists sidelined Reformists #Iran #Iran2013
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Gharazi says there need to be more camps, not just the b inary reformists vs. principlists:

#Gharazi: If the country was in the hands of two parties - Principalists & Reformists, then there would only be two men here #Iran #مناظره
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Velayati complains about the way he was treated under the reformist Khatami administration:

#Velayati: Reformists did the same thing when they were in charge, sidelining the Principalists...so what happened was a retaliation #Iran
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Haddad-Adel also slams the Khatami administration, waxing poetic about how the reformists purged the principlists:

#Haddadadel accuses Reformists of shaking out all Principalists - "What an autumn it was, all falling like leaves" #Iran #مناظره #Iran2013
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

On Public Security And Censorship

Aref, responding to Rezaei, asked:

#Aref: Mr. #Rezaei, days ago, while visiting #Tehran bazaar, some youths chanted slogans in my favor & got #detained..what is ur #solution?
— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 7, 2013

Aref also criticized the security situation --- and factionalism --- under the current administration:

AJELive ‏@ajelive 6s #Aref: Why is holding a photo of Khatami (former reformist president) against the law? #Iran # مناظره
— AJELive (@AJELive) Ju ne 7, 2013

Rouhani has this to say about censorship and security:

#Rouhani: People need to feel like they can speak freely, they can vote in elections...#Aref mentioned arrests, I know of some too #Iran
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Rouhani --- who injects some interest into the debate after he loses his temper --- says Iranians need security:

#Rouhani: In all aspects of their lives..economically, culturally, #employment, privacy..our people should feel #safe & #secure.
— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 7, 2013

Qalibaf blames foreign reporters for criticizing his involvement in student crackdowns:

#Qalibaf: Foreign media twisted my words, making it sound like I was speaking of constant crackdowns & not one specific incident #Iran
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

On Sanctions, Diplomacy and Relations With US

Rouhani says it would be easier for Iran to negotiate with the US than Europe:

#Rouhani: The issue of negotiating with the west in the past was whether it's easier to negotiate with #US or Europe? I say #US...#Iran
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Haddad-Adel says Iran was under sanctions even before it began the nuclear program. The nuclear issue is a red herring, according to Haddad-Adel; the real issue is Washington's opposition to the Islamic Revolution:

#Haddadadel: #Iran under sanction even before #nuclear programme, which is not military...root of issue with #US is the revolution itself
— AJELive (@AJELive) Ju ne 7, 2013

Gharazi suggests Iran improve its economy so that it can stand up to Washington, like China has:

#Gharazi: #China was able to stand up to #US only after it fixed its own economy & increased productivity - #Iran not there yet #Iran2013
— AJELive (@AJELive) Ju ne 7, 2013

Rezaei takes issue with Haddad-Adel for failing to offer any ideas for how Tehran can counter the US; he agrees with Gharazi that Iran needs to boost its economy:

#Rezaei: We can only beat #US at sanctions game by reversing unemployment & strengthening our currency #Iran #Iran2013 #مناظره
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Jalili slams Velayati, saying that he does not know what he is talking about when he criticizes his track record as nuclear negotiator:

#Jalili strikes back at #Velayati on his track record as a negotiator (insisting P5+1 remove all sanctions): He has it so wrong! #Iran
— AJELive (@AJELive) June 7, 2013

Iran Today: Presidential Election --- Edging Toward A Rouhani Coalition?

Joanna Paraszczuk — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 06:26:29 +0000

Supporters of Reformist Mohammad Reza Aref Call For Coalition with Moderate Hassan Rouhani

With just a week to go before the first round of the Presidential election, moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani's campaign team have hinted strongly at a coalition between his camp and that of reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref.

Rouhani's campaign office said Thursday that there could be a possibility of such a move within the next days, and used social media to push the same message. Rouhani's Twitter account tweeted photographs of Aref supporters holding banners calling for a coalition.

Via careful use of social and traditional media, as well as via TV appearances and campaign documentary, Rouhani's campaign has crafted an image of a strong candidate who is close to the people and who appeals to a broad camp of voters. A new campaign website, featuring the key image Rouhani has used as his campaign symbol, shows photographs of supporters of all ages, including women.

Rouhani's campaign documentary, which aired this week --- and which his campaign published on the internet beforehand, to increase viewings and in case any of it was censored --- the moderate candidate talked about how the Islamic Republic was in a "cultural, economic and political winter" --- a quote from Persian poet Mehdi Akhavan-Sales.

While appealing to moderate conservatives --- for example by emphasizing the need for a strong Islamic Republic by talking Thursday about how Iran should use its soft power to counter military threats ---Rouhani's campaign of "Prudence and Hope" is also courting Reformist and even Green voters with comments about personal freedoms and censorship.

Rouhani is also trying to show that he has the backing of other leading political figures. In an announcement via Twitter about a conference Saturday in Tehran's Shiroudi stadium, Rouhani used a green-tinted photograph of himself, flanked by former Presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani --- disqualified from standing the campaign --- and Mohammad Khatami.

However, if Rouhani --- and by extension the reformist camp --- want to make an impact in the June 14 vote, he will need to come to an agreement with Aref to avoid splitting the vote.

So will Aref step down in favor of Rouhani? And if so, how soon before the June 14 poll will that announcement come?

Presidential Election Watch: Khamenei Warns of Enemy Plots

Speaking on the anniversary of the death of his predecessor, Imam Khomeini, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warned that through the use of sanctions and negative press against the regime, the country’s enemies seek to decrease the number of voters in the upcoming presidential election. Khamenei stated that the Iranian people should work together for a massive turnout to crush the plots of the enemies.

Presidential Election Watch: Third Televised Debate

PressTV is broadcasting --- and translating into English --- the final televised debate between the eight candidates here. EA will be providing a full review of the debate later today.

Former Khatami Vice President: Aref-Rouhani Coalition Could Come Tomorrow

Amid growing rumors of a possible coalition between moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani and his reformist counterpart Mohammad-Reza Aref --- a move that would unite centrist and reformist voters and avoid a dilution of support for Rouhani --- Fars News, close to the Revolutionary Guards, reports that such a move could be announced as soon as Saturday.

Fars reports comments by Mohsen Mehralizadeh, vice president under the government of President Khatami, who said that Aref is the only reformist candidate in the Presidential race --- but that because Rouhani is a moderate, he could join Aref in a coalition. There had been considerable discussion on the matter with political leaders including former Presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani.

Interior Minister: No possibility of interference in Presidential elections

Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar has stated that the Iranian election process is so unflawed that there is no possibility for interference --- and that candidates must accept the results, ISNA reports.

Speaking to students before Friday prayers, Najjar pointed to Article 6 of the Iranian Constitution, which states that the affairs of the country must be administered on the basis of elections.

Najjar added that the election created hope, vitality and social cohesion and ensured Iran's security against its enemies, who had tried to use sanctions to undermine the election.

Previously, the Revolutionary Guards and Basij have also made sure to emphasize in national media that they will not interfere in the June 14 election.

Reformist Aref Campaign Sets Possibilities, Challenges of Coalition with Moderate Rouhani

An interview with Hasan Rasooli, a deputy of reformist canidate Mohammad Reza Aref, points both to the move for an Aref coalition with moderate Hassan Rouhani and the obstacles to be cleared.

Rasooli accepted the electoral need for only one of the two men to remain on the ballot next Friday:“Reformists will gain a better result if Dr. Aref and Dr. Rouhani agree on a mechanism initiated by [former Presidents] Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami to determine a single candidate to remain in the race.

What's more, Rasooli said Khatami is trying to form the coalition.

However, Rasooli also set out lines for a deal from Rouhani's camp, saying that he expected the decision not to be affected by “unreal inductions”.

Rasooli continued, “If Mr. Rouhani and his campaigners have more cooperation, we can reach a better result for the coalition.

The deputy also held out the possibility that . Aref can perform better than Rouhani in next Friday's vote.

Economy Watch: Inflation Edition

According to Iran’s Statistic Centre, inflation rates continue to hit the economy hard, reaching 31% during the month of Ordibehesht (21 April to 21 May). Meanwhile, the price of food and drink increased at the even higher rate of 49.6%.

Presidential Election Watch: Final Televised Debate

The third, and final, televised debate before the presidential election will be broadcast live today at 1130 GMT on state broadcaster IRIB. The focus of the debate is expected to be on Iran’s foreign relations, particularly its nuclear programme. The first two debates discussed the eight candidates’ views on economic and cultural issues.

Middle East Today: Turkey --- Defiant PM Erdogan Returns to Istanbul

Scott Lucas — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 06:06:30 +0000

Supporters of Prime Minister Erdogan at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport last night (Photo: Reuters)

Turkey: New Speech by PM Erdogan Blasts Protesters and Social Media

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used a speech this afternoon to continue his challenge to protesters. He has also attacked social media, saying they carried out a "disastrous lie campaign with respect to" the demonstrations.

Erdogan has also asked, "Where was the outrage over [police use of tear gas?" in other cases like Occupy Wall Street --- where he said 17 people had been killed --- Greece, and London.

Returning to the catalyst for the protests --- the Government's re-development of Istanbul's Gezi Park --- Erdogan said his Government has no problem with environmentalists and offered his co-operation.

Turkey: PM Erdogan Criticises Financial Sector Over Stock Market Fall

Prime Minister Erdogan has challenged financial institutions over a 12% fall in the stock market, the largest weekly drop since November 2008: "The interest rate lobby thinks they can threaten us by entering into speculations in the stock exchange. They should know we will not let them abuse the nation's wealth."

Egypt: Blogger on Hunger Strike

Ahmed Douma, a prominent blogger and activist, has gone on hunger strike to protest his recent sentencing to six months in jail and to raise awareness of a widening crackdown of dissent by the government.

Douma was sentenced for calling President Morsi a “murderer” and “criminal” on television. His lawyer, Ali Soliman, said “An example is being made of Douma” by the government.

Malek Adly of the Cairo-based Arabic Network for Human Rights Information commented that "Douma is an important revolutionary figure. By targeting him, the prosecutor-general is carrying out the orders of the government, which is trying to silence the opposition."

Douma’s case, and that of 11 other political activists, come a few weeks before a planned demonstration on 30 June to mark the end of Morsi’s first year in office. The organisers of the Tamarod (‘rebel’) protest claim to have gathered seven million signatures so far for a petition calling for Morsi’s removal and snap presidential elections.

Turkey: President Gül “I will not allow witch hunt”

President Abdullah Gül has told the head of the Turkish Bar Association, Metin Feyzioğlu, that citizens cannot be permitted to conduct a “witch hunt” over Twitter.

Gül said “In this process, everyone needs to act responsibly and restrained. I will not allow a witch hunt over Twitter. I will be following the judicial and executive investigation.”

Feyzioğlu showed the President images of police brutality and stated that “We emphasized the Twitter issue because we found it scary that the communication tool of 21st-century youth would be defined as a menace.” Prime Minister Erdoğan described Twitter as a “menace” on Sunday in response to its use by activists protesting against his government.

Bahrain: Crown Prince Meets High-Level Obama Administration Officials

Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman, favoured by Washington as a "moderate" who will promote "reform", has been making the rounds of Administration officials this week. An official photograph from his discussion with Vice President Joe Biden:

The visit by the Crown Prince, who has recently been named Deputy Prime Minister, comes amid concern that the "National Dialogue" between the regime, opposition, and other parties has made little progress since it began in February. The regime is also facing continued criticism that it has not implemented reforms --- for justice, political representation, freedom of detainees, and investigation of abuses by security forces --- since it suppressed mass protests in March 2011.

Yesterday, the US Administration fed these lines to the media:

Obama dropped by Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken's meeting with the prince, and stressed the importance of the US partnership in Bahrain and Washington's support for its stability and security....

"The president emphasized US support for Bahrain's stability and security," National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said in a statement.

Obama also stressed that "meaningful reform, dialogue and respect for universal human rights is the best path to achieving the peace and security that all Bahraini citizens deserve," she said.

Turkey: Defiant PM Erdogan Returns from North African Trip

Maintaining his defiance of the protests that have challenged his Government, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan returned to Istanbul last night after a four-day tour of North Africa.

"I call for an immediate end to the demonstrations, which have turned into unlawfulness and vandalism," Erdogan said.

Hundreds of supporters of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), gathered at Atatürk Airport to welcome Erdogan, waving Turkish flags and chanting for the Prime Minister.

Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc had called on people to stay home: "Our prime minister does not need such a show of strength." However, Erdogan appeared happy with a high-profile event: Flanked by his wife and prominent government ministers, he praised the supporters:

You have remained calm, mature and showed common sense. We're all going to go home from here ... You're not the type of people to bang pots and pans on the streets.

Earlier on Thursday, in Tunisia, Erdogan "expressed...sorrow for the excessive use of force” against demonstrations but refused to give way on the re-development of Istanbul's Gezi Park, the initial catalyst for the protests: “Our Taksim [Square] project is a plant that unites history and nature. And this project will produce a very beautiful environment in Istanbul."

Protesters object to the conversion of the green space into residences and a replica Ottoman-era military barracks, housing a shopping mall. Last Friday, police tried to disperse the demonstrators with tear gas and water cannons, setting off protests across the country and violence that has killed three people, injured almost 2000, and led to the detention of more than 1000.

Syria Today: The Fighting Near the Golan Heights

Scott Lucas — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 05:44:24 +0000

After the fall of Qusayr to regime forces on Wednesday, the political and military fronts were quieter yesterday.

There was one significant flutter with wider implications, however: fighting along Syria's southern border --- notably with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

In the morning, insurgents attacked and briefly held the Quneitra crossing before regime forces reclaimed it.

Then, in an incident which may or may not have been connected with the Quneitra skirmish, firing in the demilitarised area between Syria and Israel injured two United Nations peacekeepers.

The Austrian Government, which contributes 380 of the 900 peacekeepers, subsequently announced that it is withdrawing its troops.

Israel showed interest in the developments, with its military bringing out the first news of the Quneitra fighting, but refrained from intervention. Its Foreign Ministry said in a written statement saying it regretted Austria's decision and hoped this would not bring further escalation of violence in the region.

Protest Message of the Day

From Kafranbel in Idlib Province:

Syrian Council Statement

The opposition Syrian Coalition has released a statement criticising Russia’s “contradictory statements...that cast doubt on the Syrian Coalition's position toward the Geneva II Conference.”

The statement also reiterates the Syrian Coalition’s demand that Assad must step down as a part of preconditions for talks, in order to facilitate “the fundamental aim of the Geneva agreement, which is to create a democratic transition and put an end to Assad’s dictatorship.”

High-Tech Methods to Prevent Arms Going to Wrong People?

The French government is apparently looking into a variety of high-tech methods that would prevent arms provided by the West to Syrian rebels from being used by the ‘wrong’ groups.

Experts and officials say that nothing would be 100 per cent fail-safe, but techniques such as tracking the movement of anti-aircraft missiles or being able to disable them from a distance are being investigated.

Western countries, such as France, Britain and the United States, fear that if they provide arms to the rebels in a bid to assist them in overthrowing the Assad regime, these arms might end up in the hands of groups who hold anti-Western views. Both France and Britain have been pushing for a stronger response to the crisis, recently ending the EU arms embargo and accusing Syrian government forces of using chemical weapons.

Lebanon: Future Bloc, March 14 Slam Hezbollah Over Qusayr

Al-Mustaqbal (Future) Bloc MP Khaled al-Daher slammed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday for his group's involvement in fighting in the Syrian town of Qusayr.

Al-Daher accused Nasrallah of "leading an Iranian armed faction on Lebanese territory".

Aligned with Lebanon's Sunnis, the Future Bloc is the largest member of Lebanon's March 14 Alliance and is opposed to Shia Hezbollah, which it has said "has all the characteristics of a terrorist group".

The views of Lebanon's Sunni politicians have been picked up particularly in the Kuwaiti press. In an interview with Kuwait's al-Anbaa newspaper, al-Daher said that Hezbollah and Assad's victory in Qusayr did not mean that the insurgency was finished, and added that "those who are laughing and handing out sweets in Beirut's southern suburbs [a Hezbollah stronghold] will weep tears of bitterness and sorrow for the fall of Assad and his malignant Safavid [system] of Velayat Faqih'"

Meanwhile, the general secretary of March 14 Fares Soueid, told Kuwait's al-Seyassah daily on Friday that Hezbollah had succeeded in tying Lebanon's future to that of Syria, and said the Lebanese Shia group wanted to create a Shiite corridor along Lebanon's eastern borders with Syria, placing the country on a "dangerous path".

France Calls for Release of 2 Journalists

French President, Francois Hollande, has called for the immediate release of two French journalists who went missing in the last 24 hours.

Reporter Didier Francois and photographer Edouard Elias were travelling to the northern city of Aleppo, according to their employer, the radio station Europe 1.

Meanwhile, Austria has announced that it will withdraw its soldiers, who make up one third of the UN peacekeeping force there, from the Golan Heights as fighting has spilled over from the Syrian conflict into the area. Austria said that the threat to its people had "reached an unacceptable level.”

Qusayr: “A city that’s died”

The BBC’s chief international correspondent, Lyse Doucet, reports that the city of Qusayr, devastated by the war and recently taken over by government forces, now has a population of only 500, where just 18 months ago it was 30,000.

She observes that “We still don't know how many were killed in the last three weeks of fighting. But what we have seen is a city that's died.”

A single local family told Doucet that they were now leaving their home, never to return. One soldier, however, insists that "People will return. They will come back to a city that will be even better, and their lives will be even better than before."

Doucet also notes the prevalence of Hezbollah fighters, who supported the Assad regime’s assaults on the rebels based within the city. When asked about his views on Hezbollah’s presence in the conflict, one soldier demanded "Why shouldn't they fight with us? The other side is sending in fighters from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Afghanistan. Half the world is fighting in Syria."

A First-Hand View from Aleppo

James Harkin of The Nation, visiting the family of slain fighter Ayman Kareem, reports alongside insurgents in Aleppo:

Very little can prepare you for the epic scale of destruction in Salaheddine. In the worst-affected streets, barely a house has been left untouched; a weightless, otherworldly quiet obscures the fact that many poor Aleppans are still living here among the ruins.

When the car can take us no farther, we get out and stumble through the wreckage. Just behind the pockmarked dome of the area’s main mosque, Molham shows me a grassy yard where the rebels bury their dead in shallow graves; the fighting here is so intense that they have no time to bury them properly. As the streets narrow, drapes hang on the upper floors to block the view of snipers. It’s only when we arrive that I realize they’ve taken me to where Ayham was killed last August.

Molham, standing in the exact spot where it happened, points out the remains of a makeshift clinic where rebel-friendly doctors had been working when regime forces stormed the area. As we stand there, another group of rebels is preparing to go into battle: a white van packed with men wearing black Islamist bandannas fires itself up with cries of “Allahu Akbar!” before speeding off toward government lines.

Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees in Syria claim that 73 people were killed on Thursday, including 18 in Damascus and its suburbs, 16 in Deir Ez Zor Province, and 12 in Homs Province.

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 62,849 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 75 from Thursday. Of the deaths, 48,565 were civilians, a rise of 39 from yesterday.