EA WorldView

Syria Analysis: Dissecting the "Iran Arms to Damascus" Video & Narrative

Joanna Paraszczuk — Fri, 24 May 2013 08:43:36 +0000

Joanna Paraszczuk and Scott Lucas write:

Earlier this week, amid escalating claims of direct Iranian involvement in Syrian fighting, the Brown Moses blog asserted that a 107mm rocket --- spotted in a video taken in Agraba in Damascus Province --- was conclusive "evidence" that Iran has supplied weapons to President Assad's forces.

The incident is a notable example of how analysis of potentially important information can give way to extrapolation for a more dramatic --- if possibly incomplete or misleading --- narrative.

Brown Moses drew his conclusion based on a single video, displaying the markings on an unexploded 107mm rocket. The insurgent in the clip claims the rocket was fired by regime forces and remained intact after impact.

The rocket, Brown Moses asserts, is a "perfect match" for Iranian rockets displayed on an Indian web forum.

The assertion deserves further research. However, is this single video enough to declare with certainty that Iran has supplied 107mm rockets directly to Damascus?

Consider --- if the video does show an unexploded regime rocket --- the other possibilities for its provenance.

Iran does have 107mm rockets, called the Haseb or Fajr-1, using a design which appears to be based on the Chinese Type-63 107mm rocket.

The Iranians, however, are far from exclusive in their ownership of these rockets. Hezbollah has had short-range, man-pack 107mm and 122mm rockets in its arsenal for years. The Lebanese group --- now fighting alongside Assad's troops in Syria --- used these rockets against Israel in the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

For example, among the 1,381 rocket strikes identified by the Israeli Police's Bomb Squad, one was a 107mm rocket manufactured by North Korea.

So Iran could have supplied the rocket in the Syrian video. Or it could have been supplied by Hezbollah, which is now fighting alongside Assad forces. Like the rocket that group previously fired on Israel, it could be of North Korean manufacture. Hezbollah could have obtained the weapons from Iran directly, or indirectly by technology transfer.

This episode points to both the potential and the risks of drawing open-source intelligence from videos. Clips such as these can give clues to political and military developments, but those clues can be diversionary or misleading --- if the aim is to provide "truth", rather than spin or wishful thinking --- without contexts.

Contexts in this case would include the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran as well as between the Lebanese organisation and Damascus, the state of the conflict in Damascus Province, and the interests of the insurgents who have put out the video.

And there are wider contexts beyond this. The supply of arms by Iran and Hezbollah to Syrian forces is not one-sided. It takes place in a larger arena in which the "West", Turkey, and Arab States provide their own weaponry --- some of which has been documented by Brown Moses --- to the insurgency.

Indeed, the issue of how much Western military equipment should be given to opposition fighters, seeking to topple Assad, is perhaps the key one at that moment. And in the debate over that issue, the spectre of "Iran" and its assistance to Syria plays a leading role.

None of this is to deny the need to assess the video that Brown Moses has highlighted. It is an argument to assess it properly.

Iran Today: Beyond The Presidential Election --- Human Rights

Joanna Paraszczuk — Fri, 24 May 2013 07:35:56 +0000

Although the debate over the loaded term "free election" has receded in Iran as candidates ramp up their campaigns, rights groups continue to raise the niggling question whether human rights abuses will undermine the image of a legitimate Presidential ballot in June --- particularly as activists, journalists, politicians, lawyers, and protesters detained in the crackdown following the disputed 2009 election remain imprisoned.

Human Rights Watch warns today that "dozens" of political activists and reporters arrested four years ago remain in detention, while two of the candidates in 2009 --- Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi --- endure their 28th month of house arrest. The Committee to Protect Journalists reported earlier this month that Iran is holding at least 40 journalists in prison --- the second-highest figure in the world --- while Reporters Without Borders this week called on Iran's eight Presidential candidates to speak out in support of freedom of information.

HRW also note reports that the authorities have reduced Iranians' access to the web including by cutting internet speed and blocking virtual private networks.

The rights group said it spoke to two Iranian journalists, who said that the Ministry of Intelligence, the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry, and the Supreme National Security Council have issued "standing guidelines" to the Iranian media warning them to beware of breaching the government’s “red lines” when covering elections, including reporting about Mousavi and Karroubi and banned political parties such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

Meanwhile, the Guardian and activist Anita Hunt have created an interactive database of political prisoners in Iran, detailing some of the activists, students, journalists, women's rights campaigners, lawyers, artists, former politicians, and members of Iran's religious and ethnic minorities jailed in recent years.

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili Holds Campaign Rally

Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili held a campaign rally today in Tehran's Shirudi stadium. Jalili's campaign team --- who have made extensive use of social media --- live-tweeted the event on his Twitter feed.

During the event, Jalili announced that Iran's deputy nuclear negotiator Dr Ali Bagheri would be leading his election campaign.

Dr Ali Bagheri was announced as the head of #Jalili's campaign. #iranelection #انتخابات
— Dr Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) May 24, 2013

In attendance at the rally was Iran's Minister of Culture, Seyed Mohammad Hosseini.

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili Announces Campaign Movie

Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili has announced he is employing a group of documentary filmmakers to make his campaign movie.

Jalili also tweeted that he had engaged a group of young documentary makers to produce the film.

ساخت فیلم تبلیغاتی سعید جلیلی در یک اقدام ابتکاری و کلیشه‌شکن به طور همزمان به چند گروه از مستندسازان جوان کشور سپرده شده است. #Jalili
— Dr Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) May 24, 2013

Filmmaker Mohsen Sohani told IRGC-linked Tasnim News --- which appears to be backing Jalili --- said that the documentary campaign film would take a humorous approach to tell the story of Jalili's discovery of a three billion fraud case. The film is in its last stages of shooting and will be ready early next week, Sohani added.

Presidential Election Watch: Rezaei Says Nuke Talks Will Go On If He's Elected

Presidential candidate and former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei has said that if elected on June 14, he would continue "constructive" nuclear talks with world powers.

Dialog and diplomacy were key to resolving the stand-off over the nuclear issue, Rezaei said, but opined that the "course of the negotiations" should be changed, since so far they have been "accompanied by intensified sanctions". Instead, the talks with the P5+1 should be "based on national interests and values of the [Islamic] Revolution", he explained.

The former IRGC commander accused Washington and "other enemies of the Islamic establishment" of time-wasting.

Presidential Election Watch: Reformist Candidate Aref Says Fewer Candidates Are Better

Reformist Presidential candidate Mohammad Reza Aref has said it would be better if there were fewer candidates competing in the Presidential election, because a large number candidates could confuse the electorate.

"Two or three" candidates would be better than the current eight, he added but noted that he would not step down in favor of another reformist candidate. .

Aref said he would focus on the economy, public welfare, inflation and unemployment if elected on June 14.

Presidential Election Watch: Will Larijani Support Qalibaf?

Iran's powerful Parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, hinted at possible support for Presidential candidate and Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, lauding his achievements regarding construction of the Imam Ali Expressway in Tehran.

Larijani said the project showed Qalibaf's "jihadi efforts".

Regarding the election, Larijani said that there would be a good turnout and that the Iranian people could not be forced to vote a particular way by the West.

However --- in a hint that Presidential hopefuls need to unite behind a consensus candidate --- the parliamentary speaker warned candidates to be attentive, lest Western countries turned apparent disunity into internal divisions.

Presidential Election Watch: Former Fars News Managing Editor Endorses Jalili

Mehdi Fazaeli, the former managing editor of IRGC-linked Fars News and current editor of Soroush Publications, has endorsed Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili.

Fazaeli said that "only Jalili can represent the masses, the marginalized, and those who seek justice".

Jalili noted the comments on his Twitter account.

Fazaeli: Only #Jalili can be the representative of the masses, the marginalized people and the justice seekers. #Iranelections #انتخابات
— Dr Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) May 24, 2013

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili's Supporters Write to Motahari

Supporters of Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili have attacked moderate conservative MP Ali Motahari, suggesting in a scathing letter sent Thursday that would be "better if he became a member of the Olympic Committee rather than a member of Parliament".

Motahari had led the pre-campaigning efforts of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani prior to his disqualification.

In their letter, Jalili's supporters referred to comments Motahari made regarding Rafsanjani's disqualification. Motahari had said that the former President had been disqualified on two false reasons --- physical disability and a role in the "2009 sedition".

The letter noted that Motahari had protested Rafsanjani's apparent disqualification on grounds of disability, and had suggested a wrestling match between the former President, Jalili, and Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel.

The letter added that Motahari was asking Jalili, a war veteran who had lost a leg, to play sport. "In this regard, we note a few points: the first thing is that we condemn the action of one who mocks and ridicules a proud veteran".

Jalili's supporters quipped that if Motahari was qualified to recognize sporting talents, then he should become a member of the Olympic Committee instead of an MP.

Syria Today: Assad Plays the Pan-Arab Card

Scott Lucas — Fri, 24 May 2013 07:19:13 +0000

Anti-regime rally in Bustan al-Qasr section of Aleppo on Friday

Trying to counter moves for an international conference --- including Arab States --- to force President Assad from power, the Syrian regime has played its own Arab card.

In a meeting with a Tunisian delegation on Thursday, Assad "stressed the important role which the national and pan-Arab parties and forces can play in facing extremist and takfiri [apostate] thinking and confronting the foreign plots targeting the Arab people".

Assad's declaration came as the Friends of Syria coalition, which includes Arab States, Turkey, the US, and European countries, renewed its call for the President's departure after a meeting in Jordan. Elements of the Syrian opposition are in the midst of a three-day meeting setting out its plans for a political transition

Assad countered with an assertion of the "the necessity of adhering to the Arab principles and identity and the values of Arabism to stand up to the changes witnessed in the Arab arena".

Insurgent Takeover of Regime Base

More claimed footage of the insurgent takeover of a major regime base in Idlib Province, noted in EA's coverage on Thursday:

In the New York Times' At War Blog, CJ Chivers explained the significance of the area:

And in northern Syria, the government has retained several strong points in the face of rebel gains. Two of the most important have been a pair of mutually supporting positions between Ariha and Saraqib known almost universally in the area as the “Brick Factory” and the “Youth Camp,” names derived from each position’s prewar use. These two positions are in the lowlands at the foot of the Jebel al-Zawiya range, the mountainous area of the Idlib countryside, and virtually astride one of the four-lane highways that crisscross the region. The screen grab of a satellite image, below, from www.wikimapia.com shows the Brick Factory; the camp is just to its east.

The brick factory is one of the most loathed positions in the area; from here the government troops routinely shell the surrounding Sunni villages. This place, simply put, kills and terrifies local people. The boom of its artillery is a frequent sound. Many residents visibly flinch when they hear the outgoing rounds, wondering where the shells will land. A view of the next image, below, shows one of the reasons the position has survived so long: the surrounding ground is thinly vegetated with olive groves, making an undetected approach difficult.

Russia Elevates Regime, Denounces Opposition Over International Confernence

The Russian Foreign Ministry has praised the Assad regime for agreeing in principle to attend an international peace conference, while claiming that the opposition is blocking efforts for a resolution.

"We note with satisfaction that we have received an agreement in principle from Damascus to attend the international conference, in the interest of Syrians themselves finding a political path to resolve the conflict, which is ruinous for the nation and region," Alexander Lukashevich said.

Lukashevich said last week's UN General Assembly resolution that praised the opposition and condemned President Assad's forces has "essentially pushed [the opposition] to reject negotiations":

Demands to immediately name a specific date for the conference without having clarity about who, and with what authority, will speak in the name of the opposition, cannot be taken seriously.

The opposition Syrian National Coalition has said it will only go to the conference if Assad steps down as President, a condition rejected by Moscow.

Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claim 86 people were killed on Thursday, including 27 in Damascus and its suburbs, 18 in Aleppo Province, and 14 in Homs Province.

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 61,372 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 103 from Thursday. Of the deaths, 47,819 were civilians, a rise of 58 from yesterday.

Iran Special: EA's Guide to the Presidential Election

Joanna Paraszczuk — Thu, 23 May 2013 09:05:17 +0000

As part of its daily Iran briefings, EA WorldView will be providing detailed coverage of the Presidential campaign and the election, scheduled for 14 June.

Follow the latest developments in our Iran Today section and latest analysis.

New to the election and/or Iran? Get up to speed with our Animated Guide and our special section, with a description of the process and details of the key factions.

Middle East Today: Bahrain --- Amid Raids & Detentions, Opposition Suspends Participation in "National Dialogue"

Scott Lucas — Thu, 23 May 2013 07:03:35 +0000

Bahrain leading opposition society Al Wefaq has suspended its participation in the Kingdom's "national dialogue" after a wave of raids and detentions by security forces.

The Dialogue began in February, with the involvement of pro-regime and opposition groups, as well as Government ministers and MPs, in an attempt to resolve the issues of reform and justice highlighted by mass protests from February 2011.

However, other opposition factions have denounced the Dialogue as little more than a token gesture, and the discussions have made little progress.

"Al-Wefaq, in collaboration with other opposition forces, has decided to suspend its participation in the national dialogue preparatory sessions for two weeks," the opposition society said.

Al Wefaq claimed the arrests of "hundreds of citizens" and raids of homes, including that of Bahrain's leading Shia cleric Sheikh Isa Qassim last week.

The society said the move was also a protest against "unfair verdicts against prisoners of conscience".

Leading activists have been given sentences up to life, such as Abdulhadi Alkhawaja, the founder of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights. Nabeel Rajab, the head of the BCHR, has been in prison since last July, serving a three-year sentence, while Alkhawaja's daughter Zainab has been given a series of three-month terms.

On Monday, a Bahraini court sentenced nine men to terms between 10 and 15 years after convicting them of forming a "terrorist" group.

Iran Analysis: Hype & Substance --- 3 Key Points on Latest IAEA Nuclear Report

Scott Lucas — Thu, 23 May 2013 05:39:07 +0000

The International Atomic Energy Agency has completed its latest quarterly report on Iran's nuclear programe. As always, extracts were leaked by "Western diplomats" to compliant reporters to portray an escalating Iranian threat, buttressed by "analysis" from the Institute for Science and International Security.

So, cutting through the propaganda, what are the significant points about the report?

1. AN INCREASE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN IRAN'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITY

20% Uranium

Tehran has continued to produce 20% enriched uranium at the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities. The rate of increase is limited, however: there are only 182 kilogrammes of 20% uranium as hexafluoride gas, a rise of 9% from the February 2013 report.

The total is still short of the 250 kilogrammes which could potentially be elevated to 90% enrichment and used for one atomic bomb.

Another 142 kilograms of 20% percent material has been converted to uranium oxide to make fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor, which produces medical isotopes. Significantly, that is an increase of almost 30% on February.

In other words, of the additional 20% uranium produced since February, two-thirds was converted to uranium oxide to civilian-only use.

Centrifuges

Iran has now installed almost 700 IR-2Ms centrifuges at its Natanz plant, replaced the 1970s-edition IR-1 model. However, the centrifuges are not yet producing enriched uranium, let alone 20% stock.

Iran has also installed two new types of centrifuges, the IR-6 and the IR-6S, in the research and development area at Natanz.

Plutonium

Iran is continuing to develop its heavy water reactor at Arak, despite United Nations Security Council resolutions calling on Tehran to halt construction.

Tehran says it plans to complete the reactor in 2014 and use it to produce medical isotopes; however, Western countries are concerned that plutonium, a by-product of processing, could be used in a military programme.

If Arak functions at optimal capacity, it could produce 9 kilogrammes of plutonium each year, enough for approximately 1.5 nuclear weapons. However, Iran does not have a reprocessing facility for separation of the plutonium.

The IAEA has asked Iran for updated information on the Arak reactor.

2. BE WARY OF THE HYPE

Of course, "Western diplomats" keen on portraying an imminent Iranian menace did not give this nuanced critique of the report. Instead, they fed the "right" summary to reporters such as George Jahn of Associated Press.

Jahn dutifully put out the scare line of Iran's "advanced" IR-2M centrifuges, failing to note that: 1) the centrifuges are not operational; and 2) his "Western diplomats" were declaring 3000 centrifuges in January, more than four times the number in this week's report.

Reuters chose plutonium for its scary headline, summarising that "Iran is pressing ahead with the construction of [the Arak] research reactor" without considering: 1) other countries use plutonium by-product for civilian uses; 2) there is no indication that Iran is going to use plutonium for military purposes; 3) indeed, Iran has no capability to re-process the plutonium for such purposes.

The Institute for Science and International Security put out a press release that the imminent sign of threat was paving at the Parchin military base, claiming that this proves Iran conducted nuclear experiments years ago.

3. NOTHING MUCH IS GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE THE AUTUMN

Despite the hype, the IAEA report is likely to fade quickly.

That is because Western governments do not want a showdown with Iran over the nuclear issue in the near-future. The US and Britain, among others, are on a "hold" while awaiting the outcome of June's Presidential election, and the 5+1 Powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency both signalled business-as-usual with talks with Tehran in May.

Instead, it will be the August IAEA report --- and the propaganda around it --- that will be significant. There is a good possibility that Washington and European allies will put a final "take it or leave it" offer to Iran at talks in September between Tehran and the 5+1 Powers --- even if the US and Britain are unclear what they will do if Iran "leaves it".

Iran Today: Jalili And Qalibaf Appeal To Power Bases

Joanna Paraszczuk — Thu, 23 May 2013 05:24:37 +0000

Saeed Jalili's Campaign Logo Depicts Fingerprint In The Colors Of The Iranian Flag, And Jalili's Name

With no principlist consensus candidate declared, Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf and Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili --- arguably the two strongest figures of the eight approved candidates --- have begun fighting for control of key power bases in Iran, including via the media.

Qalibaf --- who is likely to be strongest in his Tehran home base --- is using news and endorsement websites to support his campaign, having deemed that they are more effective than posters and banners. Raja News has published a list of 51 sites associated with the Qalibaf campaign (thanks to Iran Media Project for the link).

Qalibaf also has traditional media behind him, notably the Tehran-e Emrooz daily.

Jalili, meanwhile, has put efforts into gaining the support of the powerful Revolutionary Guards and military, emphasizing his past in the armed forces. Jalili's campaign appears to be backed by Revolutionary Guards-linked news sites Fars News and Tasnim News.

Jalili --- whose campaign slogan is "The Coalition Of The People + 1" has also made attempts to appeal to youth and to Bazaaris via grassroots campaign groups. Like Qalibaf, Jalili's campaign also uses a network of endorsement blogs, which emphasize his support in various parts of the country, including in Sistan- Baluchestan. To emphasize popular support, his social media sites have posted photographs of Iranians holding banners in support of the Jalili campaign.

Jalili has also made the most use of visual imagery, including a logo of a fingerprint in the colors of the Iranian flag, over which is juxtaposed a stylized version of Jalili's name in Nastaliq font.

Detained Film Director To Travel To Cannes

Director Mohammad Rasoulof, under effective house arrest since December 2010, will appear at the Cannes Film Festival on Friday to present his film, Anonymous.

Rasouluf is still under threat of a one-year prison sentence, as well as a 20-year ban on film-making, for anti-regime propaganda. He was initially sentenced, with award-winning Jafar Panahi, to six years before the term was reduced on appeal.

Rasoulof's previous film Goodbye won the best director prize in the Un Certain Regard section at the Festival in 2011, with his wife picking up the prize.

The new film is about a former Iranian political prisoner and author named Kasra, who manages to secretly write his memoirs despite being under constant surveillance by state security apparatus.

Presidential Election Watch: Velayati Edition

Presidential candidate and senior advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati has slammed Iran's high inflation rate, vowing to form a "strong government" to deal with the issue.

According to Velayati, Iran's domestic markets are being flooded with Chinese imports at the expense of locally-made Iranian goods. Domestic producers are in decline, he explained, which has reduced the purchasing power of Iranian consumers. Unemployment is also a major problem, he added.

The next President must win back market confidence, he explained.

Presidential Election Watch: Qalibaf Edition

Tehran mayor and Presidential candidate Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf is due to start campaigning tomorrow at the Khorramshahr mosque, Khabar Online reports.

Qalibaf's campaign spokesman, Parvez Esmaili, said that the choice to start the campaign on the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr [in the Iran-Iraq War] indicates that Qalibaf could accomplish a political epic, alongside the culture of jihad and the epic liberation of the city.

In an appeal to Iranian nationalism as well as to the military and Revolutionary Guards, Esmaili added that during the liberation of Khorramshahr, the frontline soldiers had been devoted to religion, their homeland and the people. Iran was still in a "jihad situation" today, he added, noting that "the fight continues and we are still at war."

Notably, Qalibaf's main rival, Saeed Jalili, is also focussing on appealing to the military and IRGC power bases.

On Wednesday, Qalibaf said that he would focus on the economy and job creation schemes if Iranians chose him as their new President, adding that his cabinet would include those with "proven managerial skills".

Qalibaf said that Iran must be "weaned off petrodollars" and noted that during his tenure as Tehran mayor he had been successful in creating jobs.

Presidential Election Watch --- Rafsanjani Edition

Clerics, Politicians Write Letters About Rafsanjani's Disqualification

Cleric Sayed Hassan Khomeini --- the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei --- has written a letter to former President Rafsanjani in which he said he was "shocked to hear of your disqualification as I could see that your candidacy revived people’s hopes".

Meanwhile, Parvis Kazemi, a former Minister of Welfare and Social Security in the first Ahmadinejad administration, wrote the Supreme Leader and reminded him how he had expressed appreciation and praise for Rafsanjani over the past few years, and asking him to to reconsider the disqualification.

Hashemi Thanks Campaign Team

In the wake of his disqualification by the Guardian Council, former President Hashemi Rafsanajani held a meeting Wednesday evening to thank members of his campaign team, Green website Rah-e Sabz reports.

Rafsanjani emphasized that he had joined the Presidential race against his will, and only because of requests by people and clergy in Iran and abroad. The Supreme Leader had not opposed his presence, the former President was quoted as saying.

Rafsanjani told his followers that he had come to "solve issues regarding the economic crisis and true foreign threats. The US and Israel threat is real."

He added: "I never thought my registration will bring so much hope for people. And if the officials had “wisdom” and were clever, they would have let me come."

Rafsanjani commented further on what he said was the threat from the US, saying that the "American Senate" has "two serious schemes" --- they will wait until the election is decided and then act. Washington is analyzing the situation in Azerbaijan and Sistan-Balochestan [ the Sunni-majority province which has seen an upsurge in Sunni insurgents threatening Iranian interests --- ed. ], Rafsanjani was quoted as saying, adding that if Israel attacked Iran, the US would assist militarily. This was psychological warfare, he added.

Presidential Election Watch --- Jalili Edition

In an appeal to the military and Revolutionary Guards, Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili stresses the concept of "resistance" in an announcement that he is to meet his supporters on the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr.

The concept of "resistance" --- against foreign influence, against the "enemy", against Israel and as part of the fight against sanctions, including via the "resistance economy" --- is a loaded term in Iran.

'Resistance;Key to progress': #Jalili meets supporters in Tehran on May 24,Liberation of Khorramshahr anniv,Shirudi Stadium #iranelection
— Dr Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) May 23, 2013

Sepah Watch --- IRGC Opens Holy Defense News Agency

The Revolutionary Guards have launched a news agency --- the Holy Defense News Agency, according to Sepah News, the IRGC's official PR website.

The new agency, located at defanews.ir, was launched to coincide with the anniversary of Iran's liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraqi forces on May 24, 1982, an event which proved to be a turning point in the Iran-Iraq War, or Holy Defense as it is known in Iran.

The Holy Defense News Agency so far features --- unsurprisingly --- reports of speeches by top IRGC and military commanders on the Holy Defense.

Nuclear Watch --- IAEA Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency has completed its latest quarterly report on Iran's nuclear programme.

For more on the report --- the obligatory AP scare story that preceded it and the inevitable doom-laden response by ISIS's David Albright --- see EA's analysis here.

Presidential Election Watch --- Rafsanjani Edition

Fars News --- close to the Revolutionary Guards ---headlines this morning with "The Official End of Hashemi [Rafsanjani]'s Election Campaign".

Fars cites Rafsanjani aide Mohammed-Reza Sadeq as saying the former President has officially ended his campaign after praising his campaign staff.

Syria Today: An Insurgent Victory in Idlib Province?

Scott Lucas — Thu, 23 May 2013 05:15:48 +0000

Insurgents moving across the regime base in Idlib Province

Attention has been focused this week on the battle for Qusayr, near the Lebanese border, with a possible regime takeover of the town; however, on Wednesday opposition activists and fighters claimed a notable victory in northwest Syria with the capture of a regime base at a a "youth camp".

A series of videos showed insurgents moving across a large complex, with tanks burning amidst the rides at the fun fair.

Other video showed weapons --- including DIY cannons --- used in the assault.

The Islamist faction Ahrar al-Sham, posting on its Twitter page, was among the opposition factions claiming victory.

It is unclear how many regime troops or militia are in the complex.

Spillover From Syria: Clashes Continue in Tripoli

This week's fighting in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, between supporters and opponents of the Assad regime, has continued with the deaths of at least six people overnight. Forty more were wounded.

At least 17 people have died since Sunday in the fighting, notably between residents of the mainly-Sunni district of Bab el-Tebbaneh and those from the neighbouring mainly-Alawite area of Jabal Mohsen.

Shelling and clashes have spread to other areas of the city, with two soldiers among the dead and more than 150 people injured.

Wishful Thinking Of The Day : Assad Government "Restoring Radiance To Syria's National Industry"

Amid reports of fierce fighting including in Idlib Province, Syria's state news agency SANA reports on a ministerial meeting in which the possibility of creating new industrial cities to boost the textile, pharmaceutical, cement and other sectors was discussed.

This move, SANA said, would counter attempts by "armed terrorist groups" led by Israel, the Erdogan government in Turkey and "some Western and Arab countries" to destroy Syrian industry; however the report did not suggest in which provinces these cities may be built.

Friends of Syria Call For Withdrawal of Iranian and Hezbollah Militaries

The Friends of Syria group, meeting in Jordan, has "called for the immediate withdrawal of Hezbollah, fighters from Iran, and other regime allied foreign fighters from Syrian territory".

The coalition of Turkey, the US, and European and Arab countries said it will "further increase" support for the opposition and "take all other steps as necessary" until an international conference produces a transitional government.

The meeting warned of "severe consequences" if use of chemical weapons by Assad's forces is confirmed and claimed regime troops had "committed ethnic cleansing" on2 May near the coastal city of Baniyas, killed at least 100 people.

"The ministers expressed their strong concern over the increasing presence and growing radicalism on both sides of the conflict and terrorist elements in Syria that deepens the concerns for the future of Syria," a statement said.

Demonstration in Raqqa

The rally in insurgent-held Raqqa, the largest city held by the opposition, last night:

Refugees: 2/3 of Palestinians in Syria Displaced

The conflict in Syria has displaced more than two-thirds of Palestinian refugees, according to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees.

"We have registered approximately 530,000 Palestinian refugees. We believe that almost all of them, certainly maybe 70-80%, are displaced from their normal homes," UNRWA Commissioner General Filippo Grandi told during a visit to Syria.

Between 12 and 15% of the Palestinian refugee population has fled the country altogether, Grandi added.

Grandi put out a message to both the regime and insurgency: "I really want to appeal to the parties to this conflict, to the government, to the armed opposition groups, to respect the sanctity and the neutrality of the Palestinian refugee camps and not to involve the Palestinians in fighting.""

Casualties

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 61,269 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 111 from Wednesday. Of the deaths, 47,761 were civilians, a rise of 58 from yesterday.

Syria Today: More Noise About "Peace Talks" --- But Does It Matter?

Scott Lucas — Wed, 22 May 2013 11:05:00 +0000

Claimed footage of insurgents moving from Aleppo to the embattled town of Qusayr near the Lebanese border --- see The Battle of Qusayr update below

The rhetoric over an international conference for a resolution of the Syrian crisis continues.

On Tuesday, it was the turn of United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi --- long sidelined by dismissal of his initiatives --- to provide the declarations:

The Syrian people are building great hopes on the conference, as the opposition prepares itself to take part and likewise the Syrian regime prepares to take part in this conference.The United Nations is working to organise the conference in the best way possible.

Moaz al-Khatib, who recently resigned as head of the opposition Syrian National Coaliition, also provided some positive words:

All the opposition forces want is a solution for the Syrian people. Rebels have nothing to lose. They are determined to stay to the end. But we are facing unprecedented suffering.

Therefore all opposition forces have no objection to finding a political solution, but not at the expense of more bloodshed.

None of this, however, changes the fundamental that the regime and the opposition cannot even agree on a starting point for talks. The political and military insurgency insist that President Assad must stop aside in a transition, a demand rejected by Assad himself this week.

That stalemate is mirrored by the distance between the US and Russia, the two leading international promoters of the conference, with Washington supporting the pre-condition and Moscow making clear it will not be allowed.

Beyond the words of Brahimi and al-Khatib, opposition groups restated their position on Tuesday. At the conclusion of a two-day conference in Spain, about 80 representatives said Assad would not be in any transitional government or have any role in Syria's future.

Insurgent Attack in Idlib Province

Claimed footage of insurgents attacking a base for regime militia in Idlib Province:

Insurgents inside the "Youth Camp" base:

Almost 40% of Population In Need of Aid

Senior United Nations official Panos Moumtzis has said that the total number of people in need of assistance is now 8.3 million, about 38% of Syria's population.

Moumtsis, the regional coordinator for Syrian refugees, said about 6.8 million people were in need inside the country while 1.5 million have sought refuge in neighbouring countries.

Moumtzis said the humanitarian situation in Syria has been “rapidly spiralling downwards” since the start of the year: “UNHCR [UN High Commission for Refugees] is now very much worried about the coming summer months and in particular the increase in temperatures and the associated health problems linked to water and sanitation."

Turkey Shuts Last Crossing Controlled by Syrian Regime

Turkey has shut its side of the last border crossing with Syria still controlled by the Assad regime, following a double car bomb in the Turkish city of Reyhanli on 11 May which killed 51 people.

Customs Minister Hayat Yazici said the Yayladagi gate, about 90 kilometres (55 miles) from Reyhanli, would remain closed for a month, during which only Turkish citizens arriving from Syria or non-Syrians transiting through Turkey would be allowed to cross.

No one would be allowed to cross from Turkey into Syria.

The Yayladagi gate is the only crossing along the 900-kilometre (550-mile) border whose Syrian side which has not fallen to insurgents.

The crossing is the main route to Syria's northwestern coastal area around Latakia, which has a large population of Alawites, the religious group to which Assad belongs.

The Battle of Qusayr

The opposition Syrian National Coalition has called on insurgents across the country to send reinforcements to Qusayr, near the Lebanese border and 18 miles from Homs, which has been under sustained attack by regime forces.

George Sabra, acting head of the Coalition, called on fighters to send arms and men to the area, citing concern over sectarian violence and "foreign invaders" from Hezbollah and Iran: "O sons of the Syrian revolution, foreign forces are invading your country ...They aim to destroy your lives, so rush to defend your nation."

Sabra continued, "Everyone who has weapons or ammunition should send them to Qusayr and Homs to strengthen its resistance. Every bullet sent to Qusayr and Homs will block the invasion that is trying to drag Syria back to the era of fear."

The acting Coalition head that Hezbollah forces in Qusayr could fan Sunni-Shia tensions across the Middle East: "The invasion will light a sectarian fire that will destroy relationships between countries in the region and their people. No one will benefit other than Israel."

Claimed footage of civilians in Qusayr amid the fighting:

Fighting in Lebanon

Rula Amin of Al Jazeera English reports on renewed fighting in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, where at least 10 people have been killed and 70 wounded in clashes between supporters and opponents of the Syrian regime.

Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claim that 89 people were killed on Tuesday, including 31 in Damascus and its suburbs and 27 in Homs Province.

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 61,158 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 106 from Monday. Of the deaths, 47,703 were civilians, a rise of 123 from yesterday.

Syria Analysis: Creating the Latest Scare Story "Iranians Fighting Alongside Hezbollah"

Scott Lucas — Wed, 22 May 2013 09:02:31 +0000

A story of how US Government spin became headline "fact" by Wednesday morning.,,.

On Tuesday, the State Department set up a conference call with a "senior official" on Syria. In the midst of answering a question about the fighting in Qusayr near the Lebanese border, the official said:

It is the most visible effort we have seen of Hezbollah to engage directly in the fighting in Syria as a foreign force. We understand there are also Iranians up there. That is what the Free Syrian Army commanders are telling us. I think this is an important thing to note, the direct implication of foreigners fighting on Syrian soil now for the regime.

The official produced no evidence or further explanation, but immediately moved to criticism of regime operations: "If they do capture [Qusayr], that there will be retaliation against the civilian population, and there are still thousands of civilians in the city."

However, pressed for any information confirming the claim from the "Free Syrian Army commanders", the official stalled:

I just can’t answer that question, I’m sorry. I don’t --- to be very frank, I don’t have any estimates of numbers and I don’t know that they are directly involved in the fighting, but I don’t think the people that I’m talking to know that themselves. So --- but they say that there is both Hezbollah on the ground as well as Iranians on the ground.

No problem. Anne Gearan of The Washington Post was happy to proclaim a confirmed story of a "proxy war":

Iran has sent soldiers to Syria to fight alongside forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and those of the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia, a senior State Department official said Tuesday.

An unknown number of Iranians are fighting in Syria, the official said, citing accounts from members of the opposition Free Syrian Army, which is backed by the United States....

The U.S. official’s allegation was a tacit acknowledgment that the two-year-old Syrian conflict has become a regional war and a de facto U.S. proxy fight with Iran.

Steven Lee Myers and Michael Gordon --- best-known for his "confirmed" stories of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq before the 2003 war --- went even farther in The New York Times: "Iran and Hezbollah Support for Syria Complicates Peace-Talk Strategy".

Gordon was in the conference call --- he asked a question to the senior official about US "non-lethal" aid. Curiously, however, he does not mention any of the official's far-from-conclusive remarks in the article, except for this sweeping sentence: “Iran’s role and Hezbollah’s role has grown substantially over the last couple of months."

Instead, to back the headline, Myers and Gordon simply create the reality in the opening paragraph: "As evidence grows of increased Iranian support for the Syrian government, the Obama administration’s strategy to bring the bitter fighting there to a close faces more challenges than ever."

So what is the evidence? There are a series from other mysterious "American officials", presumably not through conference calls:

According to American intelligence reports, there are some 200 Iranian paramilitary Quds Force personnel in Syria. Qassim Suleimani, the Quds Force commander, recently ordered Iranian artillery and armor officials to help Mr. Assad’s regime, American officials say.

And Mr. Suleimani has also requested that several hundreds fighters from Asaib al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah, two Iraqi Shiite militias that have been trained by the Iranians, join the war effort in Syria, according to officials familiar with the intelligence assessments. Iran is heavily involved in training thousands of members of Mr. Assad’s militia, the Jaish al-Sha’bi, including in Iran.

Iran’s somewhat shadowy role burst into the open in February when Brig. Gen. Hassan Shateri, a Quds Force officer, was killed when he ran into a rebel checkpoint after visiting Aleppo.

These exciting paragraphs begin to crumble on closer examination. Gordon and Myers, whether from their sources or their translation of them, exaggerate Iranian logistical and advisory assistance to the Assad regime --- detailed on EA --- into the vague, unsubstantiated insinuation of direct involvement of Iranian artillery and armour.

The reporters out the scare story --- echoing earlier US spin of Iraqi factions as Iranian-directed --- of Tehran bringing those fighters into Syria. They convert Iranian support of the Syrian-developed Jaish al-Sha'bi (People's Army) --- again noted on EA --- into "intensive training". They re-write General Shateri's openly-acknowledged supervision of reconstruction projects in Lebanon and Syria as covert leadership of unnamed nefarious activities.

So why does this matter?

There is an important story here of how Iran, facing the difficulties of the position of Syria and the prospect of escalated Western intervention, is manoeuvring politically behind Damascus. It is putting out the claim that it is organising a conference in Tehran for all factions to find a resolution, even as it continues to give military advice to the Assad regime.

This, however, is not the same as the sensational narrative of Iranian troops fighting alongside Syrian forces and Hezbollah. That is not just a "proxy war" story but a claim of a direct Us v. Them confict.

Iran Analysis: Has Regime Risked Its Legitimacy By Blocking Rafsanjani?

Scott Lucas — Wed, 22 May 2013 07:02:54 +0000

Cartoon: Mana Neyestani

On Tuesday, as the Guardian Council decided which candidates would be allowed to contest the Presidential election, we posed four questions and possible answers. Among them:

Given [former President Hashemi] Rafsanjani's contentious relationship with the Government and elements of the regime since 2009, when he used a Tehran Friday Prayer to back protests over the disputed election of Ahmadinejad, will the Supreme Leader's men allow him to campaign?

I think they will, given the danger of a backlash from the public as well as Rafsanjani's political base if he is stopped.

On Tuesday night, the Ministry of Interior released the Council's list of eight approved candidates. Unsurprisingly, President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai was not among them.

Surprisingly --- at least to us --- Rafsanjani was also excluded, with his ally Hassan Rohani allowed through as a less prominent alternative.

Elements in the regime had decided to slap down Rafsanjani now, rather than during the campaign. What's more, they made their move quickly. The Minister of Interior was not supposed to release the list of candidates until Wednesday; however, it was leaked to Mehr News Agency on Tuesday afternoon and confirmed by State TV and other media in the evening.

The decision to block Rafsanjani is not final. While the Council will not hear any appeal, the Supreme Leader could re-instate the former President, as he did with two reformist candidates in 2005.

At this point, however, it appears that Ayatollah Khamenei, as well as institutions like the Guardian Council, have decided to risk any shred of legitimacy for the elections rather than face a possible Rafsanjani victory, or even the inconvenience of a provocative campaign challenging the performance of the Iranian system in recent years.

A fellow analyst had a different view on Tuesday at a meeting in London. He argued that the Supreme Leader has a history of playing divide-and-rule with Iran's politicians, pitting them against each other until he made a decision late in the process --- or even exerted his control after the election.

That opinion, however, ignores the marker of the disputed 2009 Presidential contest with the manipulation of the vote --- after the excitement of a "genuine" campaign --- and the subsequent mass protests.

While the Supreme Leader stepped in to anoint President Ahmadinejad as the victor, notably in a speech on 19 June that told dissenters to shut up or face punishment, he has not managed amid the events of the subsequent four years to fully --- or even significantly --- restore legitimacy. Two of the candidates from 2009 have been under house arrests for 27 months, other opposition activists are in prison, and political parties have been banned. The "legitimate" groups in the system, facing economic strains, have turned against each other, as in the battle against President Ahmadinejad's "deviant current".

The difficulty for the regime in restoring legitimacy was painfully evident at the start of this year, when Ayatollah Khamenei denounced the label "free election" as a cover for "sedition" by dissenters --- including reformist groups --- and their alleged foreign supporters. Ayatollah Khamenei could not answer the subsequent question: if this process was not a "free election", what was it?

Hashemi Rafsanjani's entry into the race on 11 May, with the way paved by former President Mohammad Khatami, brought back both the challenge of 2009 and the challenge of the "free election". Rafsanjani was not only going to stand for his "moderate conservative" base, built since the 1980s; he was going to represent many reformists, and even members of the Green Movement, suppressed and shut out of the system since the last Presidential campaign. The spontaneous demonstrations and celebrations as word spread of his candidacy testified to the coalition that could ruin the high-level plans of the regime for an acceptable "unity" victor.

Paradoxically, however, Rafsanjani's candidacy also gave the Supreme Leader and his allies the opportunity to re-establish legitimacy. The former President's involvement would ensure that the campaign was more than an orchestrated show offering little excitement. Ayatollah Khamenei's preferred candidate --- say, a Saeed Jalili --- could use the power of regime institutions, networks, and patronage to mobilise enough votes to defeat Rafsanjani in a run-off, or at least gather enough support where a victory could be declared.

Assuming Ayatollah Khamenei does not re-instate Rafsanjani, that possibility was spurned on Tuesday. It may have been because of fear of Rafsanjani, but it also may have been out of concern that the regime will not have a "unity" candidate with wide appeal --- Ali Akbar Velayati and Gholam Ali Haddad Adel lack charisma, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf may be too "independent" for the Leader, Jalili is emerging but has no previous electoral experience --- for the campaign.

So after the new President is declared on 21 June in the election which cannot be called a "free election", the bigger contest for the regime --- beset by economic problems, facing difficulties over its foreign policy and "Islamic Awakening", caught up in political rivalry --- remains....

How does it convince its people, many of them resigned to the decline of recent years, that its Islamic Republic is still legitimate?

Iran Today: Guardian Council Approves Eight Candidates --- What Next?

Joanna Paraszczuk — Wed, 22 May 2013 05:57:32 +0000

In the wake of the Interior Ministry's announcement on Tuesday that the Guardian Council had formally approved eight of the 686 Presidential hopefuls who registered as potential candidates in the June 14 election, the question still remains: which candidate will the Supreme Leader ultimately back?

The eight men approved are Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili; former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei; centrist Hassan Rouhani; Supreme Leader advisor Ali Akbar Velayati; MP Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel; Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf; a token reformist, Mohammad-Reza Aref; and the lesser-known Mohammad Gharazi, a Minister of Oil in the late 1980s.

The list of approved candidates ---unsurprisingly --- includes all three of the 2+1 Coalition (Velayati, Haddad-Adel and Qalibaf), who were originally tasked in December with finding a consensus candidate behind whom the principlists and conservatives could unite.

The committee has said that it would wait until the Guardian Council released its list of approved candidates before deciding on which of three would ultimately run. However, with Jalili emerging in the past week as a front-runner, the question now is whether the Coalition --- and the Supreme Leader --- decide to back him as the consensus candidate, or whether they will choose Qalibaf, who has said he has said he does not wish to stand down.

"Western Sources" and Media Put Out Scary Stories About Leaked Nuclear Report

As customary, extracts from the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency are being fed by Western officials to the media with the scariest-possible interpretation.

The report says that Iran's stock of 20% uranium is still below the level of 250 kilogrammes needed for a single atomic bomb, with Tehran holding 182 kilogrammes and another 140.8 kilos in a state for civilian-only use.

Three diplomats, however, made sure that George Jahn of the Associated Press has the dramatic lede that Tehran "has installed close to 700 high-tech centrifuges in an upgrade of its uranium enrichment program since the start of the year". (Jahn apparently has forgotten that in January the diplomats were talking of 3000 centrifuges.)

Reuters recycles the line that "Iran is pressing ahead with the construction of a research reactor" using plutonium from the Arak heavy-water reactor.

As EA noted earlier this year, dissecting a scare story in The Daily Telegraph, plutonium is a natural by-product of heavy-water reactors, and other countries use it in their civilian programmes.

The unintentional humour, howver, comes from the Institute for Science and International Security, which has previously seen pink tarpaulins and doom-laden magnets as harbingers of Iran's sinister atomic plans. This time, the Institute warns, "Iran Laying Asphalt at the Suspect Parchin Site".

Rafsanjani's Disqualification: An "Academic" Explanation

Dr Seyed Mohmmad Marandi of the University of Tehran justifies the exclusion of Hashemi Rafsanjani from the Presidential race on the grounds that he supported "sedition" in 2009:

I think one of the most important arguments that’s being put forward against him is that four years ago he and his supporters questioned the validity of the presidential results, to say the least.

Four years ago he failed to accept the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad’s victory....So if he loses this election, who is to say his followers are not going to cause trouble? We already have an experience with him where his side lost and yet he failed to accept the democratic process.

Marandi added, "That is what his critics say."

Presidential Election Watch --- Khomeini's Daughter, Leading MP Motahari Appeal to Supreme Leader for Reinstatement of Rafsanjani's Candidacy

The daughter of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, has written to the current Supreme Leader to call for the reinstatement of Hashemi Rafsanjani as a candidate.

Zahra Mostafavi Khomeini said the reinstatement would prevent dictatorship in Iran and officials "doing whatever they want".

She invoked the name of the father, "By the views of Ayatollah Ruhollah Mostafavi Musavi Khomeini, Rafsanjani had all the qualities to be a competent leader,"

MP Ali Motahari, who is part of the Rafsanjani campaign, has also written the Supreme Leader, saying that Ayatollah Khomeini would have been disqualified by the Guardian Council under the rationale they used this week.

Presidential Election Watch --- IRGC-linked Outlets Backing Jalili

Both the Tasnim and Fars news agencies have shown signs that they are --- unofficially at least --- backing the campaign of Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili.

Both agencies went beyond reporting that a group of "scholars and clergy" in Tehran have set up a campaign headquarters in support of Jalili, by including email and telephone contact details for those who wish to join the campaign.

Tasnim was launched last November and like Fars News has strong ties to the Revolutionary Guards.

Presidential Election Watch: Military Edition

Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi has discussed the ministry's role in the upcoming Presidential election, saying that "there will be powerful and intelligent people in the elections and the defense ministry will perform its duties well alongside the people."

Vahidi said that "another chapter in the history of the revolution" was being written through the Presidential election.

Presidential Election Watch: Mashaei & Ahmadinejad Edition

Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said that he will contest the Guardian Council's decision to disqualify his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei.

Ahmadinejad said he would pursue the issue "until the last possible moment".

The incumbent President said that he had introduced Mashaei and knew that he would be good for Iran, and capable of being President.

Ahmadinejad said that he believed the Supreme Leader would resolve the "problem".

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili Edition

Jalili Tweets Internet Campaign HQ

Presidential candidate Saeed Jalili has tweeted a photograph of his "internet campaign headquarters".

Jalili --- or his campaign team --- has emerged as the leading user of social media among the candidates, though it is not clear --- especially with reports that the internet is at best extremely slow across Iran today --- what the impact of his campaign is domestically.

Presidential Election Watch: Mashaei Edition

Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, criticized as an "injustice" Tuesday his disqualification by the Guardian Council, and said the Supreme Leader would fix the situation.

He added: "Enshallah, this problem will be solved this way."

Syria Today: The Battle for Qusayr Continues

Scott Lucas — Tue, 21 May 2013 19:13:56 +0000

Insurgents fighting in Qusayr

Middle East Today: US Protests Israel Legalisation of 4 West Bank Outposts
Monday's Syria Today: The Battle for Qusayr

Monday brought more of the same in competing claims over the battle for Qusayr, near the Lebanese border and 18 miles from Homs: the Syrian military and State media asserted that most of the town had been taken, while opposition activists insisted that the attacks had been repelled.

State news agency SANA listed the names of a dozen insurgents who had supposedly been slain:

Army units restored stability to the Local Stadium area, some parts of the western area, Municipality HQ, the Cultural Center, the Church, al-Baladyeh roundabout and al-Ghytta area.

There was a lack of substantial information, including on casualties, amid regime reports of more than 100 killed and opposition claims that more than 50 people had been killed by shelling and up to 28 Hezbollah activists, fighting alongside the Syrian forces, were slain.

Opposition Insists Assad Must Go

The opposition Syrian National Coalition has rejected Russian demands that, for an international conference, there should be no pre-condition of the departure of President Assad.

"We have been very clear that any transitional period must start with the departure of Assad and the heads of the security services," Khalid Saleh, the spokesman of the SNC, said Tuesday.

Saleh also said the Free Syrian Army must receive "major shipments of weapons" and "must be able to control more areas of Syria before we start thinking about the conference".

1700 GMT: 70 Killed So Far on Tuesday

The Local Coordination Committees claim 70 people have been killed today, including 26 in Damascus and its suburbs and 24 martyrs in Homs Province.

Israeli Forces Fire Into Syria

Israeli troops shot at a target in Syria today in response to gunfire near its forces in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights.

A statement said a military vehicle was damaged by shots fired from Syria but that there were no injuries. It said that soldiers "returned precise fire".

There have been a series of exchanges of fire between Syrian forces and the Israeli military, who have been in the Golan Heights since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

Russia Sets Out Firm Line on International Conference

In an interview with a Lebanese TV station, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has again supported an international conference to resolve the Syrian crisis while putting out a firm line to the US and other powers over its context and aims:

1. The "West" Has A Mistaken View of the Opposition

What about the other opposition groups --- the Syrian National Coalition [the umbrella group recognised by the US, Turkey, and European and Arab States] is far from being the only one of them? There is an external opposition which is not represented in the coalition. There is also an internal opposition, which has never left Syria and is in favor of reform from inside the country....

It is hard to persuade the opposition [the Coalition]. It, in contrast to the government of Syria, which has made quite a positive statement in response to the Russo-American initiative, has not done this but has spoken quite vaguely,

2, There Should Be No Demand for President Assad to Step Down

We welcome the agreement of the Americans, represented by John Kerry, to our blueprint for holding a conference without precondition....

We think that preconditions need to be abandoned, not because we like or do not like someone, but because it is necessary to be realistic.

Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claims that 115 people were killed on Monday, including 30 in Damascus and its suburbs, 24 in Homs Province, and 22 in Aleppo Province.

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 61,052 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 118 from Monday. Of the deaths, 47,580 were civilians, a rise of 76 from yesterday.

Iran Today: Guardian Council To Decide on Candidates

Joanna Paraszczuk — Tue, 21 May 2013 17:42:36 +0000

Image From Saeed Jalili's Twitter Campaign: 'The Coalition Of The People + 1

After ten days of intense speculation, the Guardian Council is expected to release its final list of candidates for the June Presidential election today. The supervisory body is expected to pass the list to the Interior Ministry, who will make an announcement to the media.

Key questions include whether the Guardian Council will allow former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to run or whether it will find a way to disqualify him. On Monday, the Council's spokesman announced that candidates would be assessed on grounds of "physical condition" --- likely a hint that the 78-year-old Rafsanjani could be barred from the race on grounds of age.

The question also remains whether the Guardian Council will allow outgoing President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei --- whom his critics say is part of a "deviant current" and who has caused controversy with statements on key issues from Islam to foreign affairs --- to run. Ayatollah Mohammad Mesbah-Yazdi, for example, has dubbed Mashaei's remarks "inappropriate".

Meanwhile, Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili continues to forge ahead as a front-runner, with his main rival from the Perseverance Front, Kamran Baqeri Lankarani, announcing he was withdrawing from the race on Monday.

We will post an analysis of these questions and their significance later this morning.

Internet Slowed, Reports of Riot Police on Streets

An EA correspondent confirms reports that the Internet slowed to the point of non-existence in Iran on Tuesday and that riot police were out in major locations in Tehran.

Supreme Leader Offers Consolation to Disqualified Presidential Hopefuls

The Supreme Leader has tried to assure candidates rejected by the Guardian Council, "You may not be qualified for the job, but you have many other qualifications."

Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad's Right-Hand Man Rahim-Mashai Disqualified as Guardian Council Approves 8 to Run

The official Twitter account of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani confirms the news that he has been disqualified by the Guardian Council.

آیت الله هاشمی رفسنجانی برای کاندیداتوری در انتخابات یازدهم ریاست جمهوری رد صلاحیت شد
— هاشمی رفسنجانی (@hashemi1392) May 21, 2013

According to State TV and Iranian media, the Ministry of Interior --- which was not supposed to reveal the Guardian Council's approved list until Wednesday --- has confirmed that eight candidates (see previous entry) have been allowed to campaign.

President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has also been disqualified.

Presidential Election Watch: Eight Candidates Approved; Rafsanjani Rejected?

Mehr News is reporting “on the basis of anecdotal evidence that the Guardian Council approved eight people” to run in the presidential campaign – conspicuous by his absence from the list, however, is former president Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The eight candidates who have been approved, according to Mehr, are Saeed Jalili, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Gholamali Haddad-Adel, Ali Akbar Velayati, Hassan Rouhani, Mohammad Gharazi, Mohsen Rezaei, and Mohammad Reza Aref.

While the most notable aspect of this list – if true – is the rejection of Rafsanjani, it also reveals that the Guardian Council rejected the candidacy of President Ahmadinejad’s right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei.

If the list is accurate, then it goes some way to answering two of the questions posed in the analysis posted this morning, although Rafsanjani may yet be able to appeal directly to the Supreme Leader to issue a decree allowing him to run. So far, Rafsanjani’s campaign has yet to respond except to tweet Mehr News’s claims:

ادعای خبرگزاری مهر: حداد عادل، سعید جلیلی، محسن رضایی، حسن روحانی، عارف، قالیباف، محمد غرضی و ولایتی تایید صلاحیت شدند/ هاشمی تایید نشد!
— هاشمی رفسنجانی (@hashemi1392) May 21, 2013

Other Iranian news sources are also not reporting this 8-man list, with Fars News encouraging people to be patient and wait for the Guardian Council’s decision and PressTV noting that 115 members of Majlis, as well as a number of religious scholars, have urged the Guardian Council to disapprove Rafsanjani’s candidacy.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

Presidential hopeful Hashemi Rafsanjani has taken to Twitter to claim that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has endorsed his candidacy.

روزنامه الحیات به نقل از منابعی که با آیت الله سیستانی دیدار کرده بودند ، از حمایت این مرجع تقلید از کاندیداتوری هاشمی رفسنجانی خبر داد
— هاشمی رفسنجانی (@hashemi1392) May 21, 2013

Presidential Election Watch: Need to Comply with Guardian Council

Fars News is reporting that Grand Ayatollah Alavi Gorgani, a long-time critic of the Supreme Leader, has said that all candidates and groups will have to comply with the Guardian Council’s decision on who will be allowed to run in the presidential election.

Gorgani continued that it was the duty of Iranians to put aside their differences in order to maintain the reputation of the system.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

In an apparent reference to yesterday’s pronouncement by the Guardian Council that it might assess candidates on “physical grounds”, Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, has written to the Supreme Leader urging him to allow “maximum participation” in the elections. Shirazi suggested that excluding persons is “incompatible” with the aim of “creating a political saga, even if the justification of exclusion is justifiable.”

Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, towards whom the Guardian Council’s statement was directed, endorsed Shirazi’s comments via his Twitter account:

نامه آیت الله حایری شیرازی به رهبر انقلاب: حماسه سیاسی در انتخابات وقتی تحقق می یابد که افراد رده اول دو طرف در رقابت حاضر باشند
— هاشمی رفسنجانی (@hashemi1392) May 21, 2013

Presidential Election Watch: Principlist Edition

Presidential candidate, Ali Akbar Velayati, has declared that the Principlists will “ultimately choose one candidate” to represent them in the forthcoming election.

These latest comments by Velayati, who is a member of the principlist 2+1 Coalition designated by the Supreme Leader to find a “unity candidate” five months ago, come after Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel yesterday raised the possibility of the 2+1 Coalition “negotiating” with the apparent front-runner Saeed Jalili.

Presidential Election Watch: Ahmadinejad Edition

Digarban reports that a number of clergy and non-clergy supporters of the current President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, were arrested by security forces yesterday. The website, Network of Iran, which is close to Ahmadinejad, called the arrests “irrational and unjustified” and questioned their “justification.”

Ahmadinejad’s chosen successor and presidential hopeful, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, suggested they would appeal directly to the Supreme Leader to resolve the situation.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Lashes Out On Twitter

Former President and Presidential candidate Hashemi Rafsanjani has used his Twitter account to hit back at his rivals.

Earlier today, Rafsanjani subtly hit back at criticisms that he was too old to run.

The former President later on Tuesday made a far more direct attack --- albeit without naming specific individuals --- saying that "the attempts of some Principlist media outlets, especially those belonging to the establishment, to defame and destroy their rivals in the elections is amazing.

تلاش بعضی از رسانه‌های مدعی اصولگرایی بخصوص رسانه‌های متعلق به بیت‌المال برای بدنام کردن رقیب و تخریب آن در ایام انتخابات شگفت‌انگیز است
— هاشمی رفسنجانی (@hashemi1392) May 21, 2013

Presidential Election Watch: Final List Of Candidates To Be Announced Wednesday

The Interior Ministry will announce the final list of candidates for the June 14 Presidential election on Wednesday, Deputy Interior Minister Seyyed Solat Mortazavi has said. The Guardian Council is expected to pass the final list of candidates to the Interior Ministry sometime today.

Mortazavi also announced that those candidates allowed to run would be permitted to begin election campaigning at 8 a.m. Tehran time (3.30 a.m. GMT) on Friday. Campaigning will continue for 20 days.

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili Edition --- Saeed Gets Down With The Kids

Fars News --- close to the Revolutionary Guards --- reports that Saeed Jalili's election campaign has opened a new headquarters for young people.

The campaign headquarters has a name guaranteed to appeal to Iran's youth --- "The Path Of The Imam"

New #Jalili campaign headquarter for youth named "The Path of Imam" was created. #iranelection #iran
— Dr Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) May 20, 2013

Fars News, which has apparently been backing Jalili for days, is now going as far as to direct readers to his campaign website in its news reports.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

Following speculation on Monday that the Guardian Council could disqualify him on grounds of age, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani hit back subtly this morning via Twitter.

Citing Ayatollah Vaez Mousavi, the representative of Iran's Assembly of Experts, Rafsanjani tweeted that Grand Ayatollah Ali Araki --- considered to be the world's most eminent Shiite cleric --- had continued in his work until age 100.

آیت الله واعظ موسوی: آیت الله اراکی(ره) در سن 100 سالگی، مسئولیت مرجعیت تشیع به دوشش گذاشته شد
— هاشمی رفسنجانی (@hashemi1392) May 21, 2013

Iran Analysis: 4 Key Questions as Guardian Council Decides Final List of Presidential Candidates

Scott Lucas — Tue, 21 May 2013 05:56:30 +0000

Iran's Guardian Council will tell the Minister of Interior today which Presidential hopefuls will be allowed to campaign for the 14 June election.

Almost all of the 686 who registered while be disqualified; however, a relatively large contingent of politicians, perhaps more than 30, will be accepted.

This means that --- with the Supreme Leader's camp unable to agree a "unity" candidate despite five months of effort --- we still will not have clarity on the three or four front-runners until next week, after other candidates have withdrawn and made endorsements.

We can make some educated guesses, however, based on the Guardian Council's white smoke and answers to these four questions:

1. Will Hashemi Rafsanjani Be Allowed to Run?

Ever since he registered at the last minute on 11 May, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has galvanised attention and speculation.

Rafsanjani, President from 1989 to 1997 and defeated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the 2005 campaign, immediately took up a front-runner's position. People gathered in streets and shouted his name as soon as they learned of the candidacy, and key groups such as "moderate conservatives", clerics, and reformists offered their support.

The prospect of a Rafsanjani victory immediately raised the question of whether the Guardian Council would block the possibility. Last week, media outlets such as the "hard-line" Kayhan and some MPs --- including the Supreme Leader's ally Gholam Ali Haddad Adel --- put out reasons for disqualification, declaring Rafsanjani's support of "sedition" in 2009 and pointing to his age.

It was only on Monday, however, that this sniping crystallised at the highest level, with the Guardian Council saying that it could block hopefuls on the grounds of "physical condition". Inevitably, observers saw the 78-year-old Rafsanjani as the subject of the message. 2+1 Coalition member Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, who said that the former President was too old and did not have the energy to run for President again.

Given Rafsanjani's contentious relationship with the Government and elements of the regime since 2009, when he used a Tehran Friday Prayer to back protests over the disputed election of Ahmadinejad, will the Supreme Leader's men allow him to campaign?

I think they will, given the danger of a backlash from the public as well as Rafsanjani's political base if he is stopped. So that raises the second question....

2. Will Saeed Jalili Be Promoted as the "Consensus" Candidate?

The logical way to stop Rafsanjani would be to defeat him with a "unity" candidate on 14 June. However, the Supreme Leader's camp should have not even reached this point --- it was supposed to forestall the challenge from Rafsanjani or any other rival, such as President Ahmadinejad's faction, by having its choice in place weeks ago.

Each of the possibilities on the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Committee --- leading MP Haddad Adel, Ayatollah Khamenei's senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf --- have their deficiencies, however.

Into the vacuum has stepped Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Supreme Leader's office and current Secretary of the National Security Committee. Although he has no electoral experience, Jalili has put together an impressive team with skills in networking and social media.

The outcome has been a surge to front-runner status and implicit endorsement by elements of Iran's military, in which Jalili served in the 1980s. On Monday, he picked up the support of the "hard-line" Perserverance Front.

Will other conservatives and principlists, such as the "Coalition of 5" leading politicians and the powerful factions in Iran's bazaars, also back Jalili?

Most importantly, will the Supreme Leader now anoint Jalili as his man to face Rafsanjani in the final contest?

That seems a logical outcome but....

3. How Will Tehran Mayor Qalibaf Respond?

Two of the three members of the Supreme Leader's committee --- Velayati and Haddad Adel --- have effectively ruled themselves out of the race through lack-lustre campaigns and their apparent lack of appeal to the electorate.

Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, however, can claim that appeal through eight years as Mayor of Tehran, despite his failure to best Ahmadinejad in the 2005 Presidential election. He has also made clear that he does not want to stand down in this race.

So will Qalibaf persist, even if other groups and even the Supreme Leader's office back Jalili?

The Tehran Mayor has been quiet in the last 48 hours. His signals --- or lack of them --- in the next 48 could be telling as whether Jalili, with Khamenei's backing, can establish his "consensus" position.

4. Are Ahmadinejad and his man Rahim-Mashai Now Marginal?

In the days after registration closed, there was inevitable chatter about whether the Guardian Council will block President Ahmadinejad's would-be successor, former Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

That chatter is now peripheral, at least to the extent of Rahim-Mashai as a possible victor. Despite lots of hype earlier this year about an Ahmadinejad political and media machine, it has produced little in the last 10 days as a challenge to the Jalili and Rafsanjani efforts. Meanwhile, Rahim-Mashai continues to be a convenient whipping boy for rival conservatives and principlists.

If Rahim-Mashai gets through today --- and that is a big if, given the relatively small risk compared to the disqualification of Rafsanjani --- then he is at best a first-round "spoiler" on 14 June, taking votes from other candidates.