PHOTO: The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura

LATEST

• Mass Casualties from Russian Airstrike in Idlib Province
• Opposition Criticizes UN Statement Over Starving Madaya
• 400 Syrians Forced to Return from Lebanon

Pursuing an international proposal for a resolution to Syria's crisis, UN envoy Staffan de Mistura met President Assad's officials in Damascus on Saturday.

De Mistura saw Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem about "preparations for the [international] meeting scheduled on January 25th". Syrian State media said al-Moallem demanded that opposition and rebel factions be labelled as "terrorist", precluding their involvement in negotiations.

Three sets of international talks, spurred by Russia's military intervention on behalf of the regime, have been held since mid-November. The final round in New York on December 18 presented a proposal for ceasefires, opposition-regime negotiations, a new Constitution, and elections in an 18-month transition. It made no statement about the future of President Assad and his leading officials.

Earlier in the week, the UN envoy met representatives of the opposition-rebel negotiating team named last month. A statement from the head of the team, former Prime Minister Riad Hijab, emphasized preconditions for any talks with the regime. These include release of detainees from regime prisons, ceasefires with a halt to bombardment by Russian and Syrian air forces, and access to humanitarian aid.

A declaration by 21 rebel factions reiterated those preconditions on Friday.

De Mistura has also held talks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both backers of the opposition and rebels. After the Damascus meetings, he will travel to Assad's ally Iran.

Mass Casualties from Russian Airstrike in Idlib Province

Mass casualties are being reported from a Russian airstrike on the town of Maarat al-Nu'man in Idlib Province on Saturday.

Activists say more than 40 people have been killed, with scores wounded. Accounts vary on the exact target.

Video of Maarat Al Nouman after #Russian bombardement in #İdlib pic.twitter.com/MYtSi3lBMr

— Levent Kemal (@ValkryV) January 9, 2016

Maarat al-Numan, 33 km (22 miles) south of Idlib city, has been hit on several occasions since the Russian airstrikes began on September 30. In mid-December, scores were killed in a strike on an oil market.

Opposition Criticizes UN Statement Over Starving Madaya

The opposition Syrian National Coalition has criticized Thursday's UN announcement that aid will be delivered to Madaya, the town near Damascus where thousands are facing starvation amid a six-month siege by the Syrian military.

The Coalition sent a letter to the UN Security Council expressing regret at the welcome given to the Assad regime's permission to enter Madaya:

We profoundly regret the decision to welcome the Assad regime’s announcement to grant UN agencies access to Madaya. It wrongly implies that the provision of humanitarian access is optional, rather than being a legal obligation.

The letter emphasized, "The use of starvation as a tool of war is a war crime, for which the Assad regime must be held accountable.”

Madaya has received only one aid delivery, in October, during the siege that began when Hezbollah and regime forces tried to overrun nearby Zabadani. Assistance was supposed to be delivered in late December, as rebels, their families, and wounded were evacuated from the area, but it never reached the town.

At least 31 people among the estimated 40,000 population have died from starvation last month. Doctors have said that two to three people are now perishing each day.

The Coalition said, “More should be done to apply pressure on the regime, including through renewed look at the feasibility of drone-delivered air drops by those states currently conducting air operations against ISIS [the Isalmic State[ in Syria.”

It warned that more residents will die before aid is permitted into Madaya on Monday.

The weekly protest in Kafranbel in northwest Syria also criticizes the UN and the Assad regime over the crisis:

Not even a single person informed of news and developments can accept that Saudi Arabia is concerned about people's lives in Madaya, while attacking and slaughtering innocent civilians in Sana'a and Sa'da in Yemen with different missiles, cluster bombs and US and UK-made ammunition.

400 Syrians Forced to Return from Lebanon

Four hundred Syrians, trying to fly to Turkey, have been forced to return to Damascus from Beirut airport in Lebanon.

The passengers were turned back because of new Turkish regulations that require Syrians to have a visa to enter the country by air or sea. The rules came into effect on Friday.

More than 160 of the passengers were taken off planes that were about to depart.

Border crossings between Syria and Lebanon had been crowded in recent days with people intending to travel to Turkey, ahead of the deadline.

Amnesty International, which criticized the return of the passengers, said that they were scheduled to fly to Turkey on Thursday, but their flights were canceled.

Human Rights Watch has said that the Saudi-led coalition is using cluster bombs in its aerial intervention in Yemen's civil war.

HRW said the cluster munitions were dropped on Yemen's capital Sana'a, controlled by the Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement, on Wednesday. While saying that it was unclear if civilians had been killed or wounded, the organization asserted that "the deliberate or reckless use of cluster munitions in populated areas amounts to a war crime".

Residents of two Sana'a neighborhoods described the attacks between 5:30 and 6 a.m. on Wednesday. Houses, a school, and vehicles were covered in pockmarks characteristic of the damage from cluster bombs. The nearest military installations were 600 to 800 meters away.

Human Rights Watch said photographs "showed unmistakable remnants of cluster munitions, including unexploded sub-munitions, spherical fragmentation liners from sub-munitions that broke apart on impact, and parts of the bomb that carried the payload". It identified the weapons as US-made BLU-63 anti-personnel/anti-materiel sub-munitions and components of a CBU-58 cluster bomb.

Each air-dropped CBU-58 cluster bomb contains 650 submunitions. The US transferred 1,000 of the bombs to Saudi Arabia sometime between 1970 and 1995.

HRW has documented the use by coalition forces of three types of cluster munitions in Yemen, while Amnesty International documented a fourth type.

Saudi Arabia and allies launched the aerial intervention in March 2015, trying to halt the advance of the Ansar Allah movement that had forced the Government to leave Sana'a for the port city of Aden to the south.

Earlier this week, the UN almost 2,800 civilians have been killed in Yemen since March, with another 5,300 injured.

PHOTO: Police training center in Zliten, bombed on Thursday by the Islamic State

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for Thursday's suicide truck bombing on a police training centre in Libya that killed at least 60 people and wounded more than 200.

The bomb, the deadliest since the fall of the Qaddafi regime in October 2011, was detonated at the police training center in the coastal town of Zliten as hundreds of recruits gathered for a morning meeting.

"This operation is one in a series of the battle of Abu al-Mughira al-Qahtani, which will not stop until we liberate all Libya," the Islamic State's Tripoli group said in a statement.

ISIS launched the "al-Qahtani battle" earlier in the week, attacking the Mediterranean oil ports of Sidra and Ras Lanuf in northern Libya. The assaults killed at least nine guards and a civilian and set oil tanks on fire.

The Islamic State has expanded its presence in Libya this year amid fighting between rival militias and rival governments in the north African country. They now control the city of Sirte, to the west of the oil ports.

Libya's Prime Minister-designate under a UN-backed plan, Fayez Seraj, said on Friday that a new government would be named by a January 17 deadline.

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said after a meeting with Seraj that the ISIS attacks "remind us that the security situation in Libya needs to be tackled immediately and with unity".

PHOTO: Tehran Friday Prayer leader Ayatollah Emami Kashani

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• Bahrain's Gulf Air Suspends Flights to Iran
• Supreme Leader Admits, "Some Iranians Might Not Accept Me"
• Award-Winning Poet Sedighi Arrested

Trying to limit the fallout from last weekend's attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, Iran's clerics suggested on Friday that the "enemy" had staged the protests which burned and ransacked part of the complex.

The attack has fed a dispute within the regime over the downturn in Iran-Saudi relations, including the breaking of diplomatic relations by Riyadh and several other countries. President Rouhani has pressed for an investigation to identify those responsible --- which could include elements within the regime --- while others have tried to maintain the focus on Saudi "crimes", including Riyadh's role in regional crises in Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain.

In the Tehran Friday Prayer, Ayatollah Emami Kashani suggested that Saudi Arabia, seeking a diplomatic row with Iran "from the beginning", and its allies arranged the Embassy assault:

It is clear that the attack on the Saudi embassy in Iran was carried out on behalf of infiltrators. Perhaps they used ignorant people in this attack....[They] guided and led this offense and wanted this to happen in order to throw the ball that had fallen into the Saudi court [with the execution of 47 detainees] back into Iran’s court.

That way the enemy could have the higher hand and could then move to sever diplomatic relations with Iran.

Emami Kashani blamed "young and ignorant rulers" in the region and claimed “three pillars” of “plots” against Islam: Saudi Arabia, "the planners" of Israel, and the "investors" of the US.

The line was echoed in the Friday Prayer in Qazvin. Ayatollah Abedini aruged, “Perhaps the Saudis wanted to commit some mischief from inside the embassy....We do not want officials to underestimate the mischief of America and the Saudis.”

A Week of Turmoil

Hours after Saudi Arabia executed 47 detainees including a prominent Shia cleric last Saturday, a crowd gathered in front of the embassy and threw Molotov cocktails before raiding some offices. The protest appeared to have been supported by elements within the regime, with security being withdrawn just before the demonstrators assembled.

On Sunday, as Saudi Arabia cut relations with Iran, President Rouhani said the attack by "extremists" was "unjustified". Initially, his call was overshadowed by anti-Saudi rhetoric, including the Supreme Leader's equation of Riyadh and the Islamic State.

By the next day, even the Revolutionary Guards were suggesting that the protests were not spontaneous --- as the regime initially claimed --- but organized by some deviant group.

Trying to take control of the issue from hardliners, Rouhani called on the head of judiciary to launch an investigation to identify and punish the perpetrators. At the same time, the Cabinet banned imports from Saudi Arabia.

(Hat tip to Iran Tracker for translations)

Bahrain's Gulf Air Suspends Flights to Iran

Supreme Leader Admits, "Some Iranians Might Not Accept Me"

Urging Iranians to vote in February's elections, the Supreme Leader has made an unprecedented admission, "There might be people not accepting me, but they also participate."

Speaking in the holy city of Qom, Ayatollah Khamenei said before 2013's Presidential ballot that some in Iran might not believe in the Islamic Republic, but this is the first time that he has said they might not accept his leadership.

The February elections are for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the Supreme Leader. They have prompted bitter in-fighting within the regime between hardliners and supporters of President Rouhani and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The Supreme Leader effectively supported the hardline rhetoric of a "sedition" threatening the Islamic Republic by referring to the disputed 2009 Presidential election and the mass protests that followed it: "The 2009 post-election event was an unsuccessful color revolution coup d'etat."

Like the hardliners, he linked this to a warning about this year's vote:

A widespread front of enemy is standing before us, from heads of the Zionist regime and US Government to Daesh [the Islamic State] and Takfiri agents. All their analyses are focused on ways to uproot the robust tree of the Islamic Revolution.

Award-Winning Poet Sedighi Arrested

Later this morning, we will launch a new EA WorldView --- a new logo and a new website which will be reader-friendly, with quick and easy-to-navigate access to our coverage and analysis.

Much of the new EAWV will be familiar. We will have the latest news and interpretations from Syria, Iran, and the Middle East, including the manoevres of those inside and outside the region from Washington to London to Moscow. We will feature Animated Guides and Video Analyses. We will host a vibrant Comments section, bringing in ideas and news from our readers.

At the same time, we will have new features and possibilities. In time, we will expand coverage to other key areas. As well as immediate analysis, we will offer in-depth explanations and forecasts. EA Solutions will provide access to our staff, on a group and a 1-to-1 basis.

Our thanks to all of you for your support over the last 4 1/2 years. We look forward to welcoming you to our new home, as well as seeing you on Twitter.

Government forces move through Qusayr, captured by the Syrian military last Wednesday

Syria Feature: Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq
Middle East Today: Libya --- At Least 25 Killed in Clashes Between Protesters and Government-Backed Militia
Saturday's Syria Today: UN Appeal on "Record" Aid for Syrians --- Significant Step or Meaningless Gesture?<

Photo: Pro-Hezbollah Demonstrators Attack Bus In Beirut

Following our earlier report about clashes on Sunday near the Iranian embassy in Bir Hassan, southern Beirut over the roles of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria image from an incident, the image below show pro-Hezbollah demonstrators attacking a bus carrying anti-Hezbollah demonstrators in front of the embassy.

#Hezbollah supporters attack a bus carrying anti-Hezbollah protesters in front of the Iranian embassy in #Beirut twitter.com/WaelYaman/stat…

— Wael Yaman (@WaelYaman) June 9, 2013

Insurgents Kill Iraqi Border Guard

Iraqi officials say that Syrian insurgents on Sunday opened fire on two Iraqi border posts, killing one guard and wounding two others.

Colonel Nayif Zaili said Syrian rebels fired on two posts which lay two kilometres from the Al-Waleed border crossing.

The Syrian side of the crossing remains under the control of the regime, despite attempts by insurgents to seize it for several months.

State TV: Documents Show Qatar Asked Insurgents to Defend Qusayr to Protect Israel

1 Dead Amid Anti-Hezbollah Protests in Beirut

An unarmed Lebanese man has been killed after groups clashed in southern Beirut following a protest over the roles of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.

The incident happened at about lunchtime near the Iranian embassy in Bir Hassan, where demonstrators had gathered to challenge the Iranian and Hezbollah support of the Assad regime.

Five others are said to have been injured in the shooting. It was not clear who started the gunfire; however, a journalist for Beirut's Daily Star on the scene reported "men in black shirts with yellow ribbons around their arms" --- indicating they were from Hezbollah shoving protesters away from the site as they exited buses. The protesters had little time to raise their banners before they were beaten up with sticks.

The men in black shirts then opened fire in the air to disperse the demonstrators.

Al Jazeera reported that the protesters against Iran and Hezbollah belong to the party of Ahmad Asaad's party, a Shia politician who is anti-Hezbollah and belongs to the March 14 Movement.

The Lebanese army is now reported to be in control of the area around the embassy, with barricades set up on the road.

Casualties

Casualties

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 63,071 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 98 from Saturday. Of the deaths, 48,690 were civilians, a rise of 60 from yesterday.

Aid to Civilians Amid Kurdish-Insurgent Tension in North

Claimed photograph of aid to residents in Efrin, where Kurdish militia and insurgents, including of the Free Syrian Army, have been clashing for weeks:

]]>http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/rss-comments-entry-33867099.xmlEA IranIran Elections 2013Middle East and IranJoanna ParaszczukSun, 09 Jun 2013 07:43:17 +0000http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/6/9/iran-special-eas-guide-to-the-presidential-election.html497390:5781342:33617703As part of its daily Iran briefings, EA WorldView will be providing detailed coverage of the Presidential campaign and the election, scheduled for 14 June.

Follow the developments in our Iran Today section, latest analysis. and latest feature on the Presidential debates.

New to the election and/or Iran? Get up to speed with our Animated Guide and our special section, with a description of the process and details of the key factions.

Ali Larijani & The Supreme Leader --- Credit: Mehr News

Parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani chose not to stand in this year's Presidential election. But far from withdrawing from the political scene, Larijani may have made a shrewd move which stands to increase his power after June 14.

Rouhani Tells Supporters: "The People Don't Want [The Incumbent Government] Anymore!

Moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani has tweeted a video --- with English subtitles --- of Friday's campaign rally in Tehran showing his supporters cheering as he tells them: "The people don't want you [the incumbent government] any more…. God is Greatest! God is Greatest!"

Rouhani tells the crowd:

"All of us…. we seek change…. prudence and hope [the slogan of the Rouhani campaign].

Presidential Election Watch: Jalili Edition

Saeed Jalili has commented on Iran's sovereignty over three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf --- Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs --- saying that they are an integral part of Iran.

We have no joke about our islands as we have no joke about our legitimate right for peaceful nuclear program. #Iranelection #Jalili

— Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) June 9, 2013

The islands are disputed with the United Arab Emirates.

Jalili also cautioned Iranians about the dire consequences of doubt and cynicism, saying that the enemy was attempting to undermine the country's strengths after realizing their "anti-Iran propaganda" was going nowhere.

BBC Persian reported that in his television documentary, Jalili revealed details of the arrest of Jundallah leader Abdul Malik Rigi.

Fars: Guardian Council May Disqualify Moderate Rouhani

In an indication of growing concern over the campaign of moderate Hassan Rouhani, Fars News --- close to the Revolutionary Guards --- has declared, from an "informed source", that the Guardian Council will discuss the candidacy tomorrow.

The source said the Council will re-examine Rouhani's qualifications, considering charges that he is being supported by leaders of "sedition" and lawlessness.

"Issues Protesters Raised Are Still Very Much Alive"

EA WorldView's Scott Lucas concludes a Washington Post feature, "Iran's Fragmented Opposition":

Is there still an organized Green Movement? No. Whatever was there, the authorities have been successful in breaking it up with detentions and crackdowns.

But the issues the protesters raised --- accountability, political transparency, reforms, openness --- are still there and very much alive. They just have no cohesive [means for expression.

Authorities Block Memorials for Ayatollah after Isfahan Protests

Following last week's outburst of protest during a funeral march, memorial services for reformist Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri have been cancelled in Tehra and Qom.

The Qom service was scheduled for Friday, but was blocked by authorities. The opposition Kaleme website said the memorial will now only take place in Najafabad.

In Isfahan, some mourners broke into chants calling for freedom for detained opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and, referring to the Supreme Leader, shouted, "Death to the dictator."

Ayatollah Taheri critised the regime's response to protests after the Presidential election in 2009, which he said was fraudulent.

Abrar Newspaper Raided, Suspended

The Abrar daily newspaper has stopped publication after its office was raided and sealed.

The last post on the Abrar website is from Monday.

Conservative Clerics Support Velayati?

According to Fars, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi has said that the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom supports the Supreme Leader's senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati for the Presidency.

However, according to Radio France International's Persian channel, Ayatollah Rajabi has said that "not even 1/3" of the Seminary's members endorse Velayati.

Rezaei: Youth Are Asset And Resource

Independent Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei said Saturday that Iran's youth an "asset and a resource" for running the country.

In an interview on State television, Rezaei said that if elected he also planned to prepare Iranian youth for the country's future.

Rezaei also discussed a creative plan to help young people to marry by providing them with dowries of up to 23 million romans. The former IRGC commander said that his campaign team had identified factories in Iran that produce home appliances and which could provide young people with such dowries.

According to Rezaei's plan, his administration would provide these factories with money to boost their production of home appliances. In return, the factories would contribute to dowries as well as providing young people with coupons.

The full interview, in Persian, can be seen below.

Rouhani Posts Video Of Tehran Rally

Hassan Rouhani's campaign team continues to portray the moderate candidate as attracting a large amount of popular support, posting another video this morning of Saturday's rally in a Tehran stadium.

The Rouhani campaign also tweeted a link to a set of photographs taken at the event by ISNA. The photographs include this image of two women supporters, one if whom holds a picture of Rouhani with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, while the second woman holds a folded newspaper, with a photo of Rouhani.

Credit: ISNA

Will There Be A Fourth Presidential Debate?

In the wake of Friday's third --- and supposedly final --- televised Presidential debate on State TV, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has said it may hold a fourth event, if it gets approval.

Press TV reports that IRIB's public relations MD, Taqi Sohrabi, said that the Presidential candidates themselves as well as Iranians had asked for more debates.

Some of the Presidential candidates, however, have slammed IRIB over the debate. Independent candidate Mohsen Rezaei complained about being censored and moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani criticized the format of the debates:

Turkey: Massive Istanbul Anti-Government Rally as PM Erdogan Addresses Supporters in Ankara

A visual story of the competing rallies for and against the Erdogan Government --- first, Sunday's large gathering in Istanbul's Taksim Square, where mass protests began nine days ago:

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told supporters in Ankara tonight, "How can you attack my police?...We are going to show patience, but patience has a limit as well":

Yemen: 1 Dead in Fighting

One protester has been killed and 10 people injured, including four guards, in clashes with Houthi demonstrators who were demanding the release of political detainees.

An official said the Houthis, who have been demanding autonomy in the north of the country, fired at guards while trying to storm intelligence headquarters in Sanaa on Sunday. He claimed some protesters were arrested for smuggling weapons and drugs.

Meanwhile, hundreds of supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh demonstrated in Sanaa against the release of 17 men who were detained in connection with a June 2011 explosion that injured Saleh in his palace mosque.

Saleh stepped down in early 2012 as a transitional Government was put in place.

Tunisia: IMF Approves Major Loan

The International Monetary Fund has approved a two-year, $1.74 billion loan for Tunisia, giving Tunis access to foreign currency urgently needed to help balance its budget.

The Tunisian Government has devoted 1/3 of its 2013 budget to infrastructure projects, which it says will create short-term job opportunities for youth as well as helping private businesses.

However, Tunisia is running a 6% budget deficit this year, and political tensions over a draft Constitution have prevented Parliament from debating legislation allowing the government to apply for Islamic finance instruments.

The IMF has set conditions on the loan, including restructuring of Tunisia’s banking sector. Analysts believe that non-performing loans on the books at state-owned banks amount to billions of dollars.

Turkey: Protests Continue, But PM Erdogan Defiant Over "Handful of Looters"

Moving through the country to gather support against nation-wide protests, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to concede any ground. He told supporters who had greeted him at Adana airport:

We won't do what a handful of looters have done. They burn and destroy. ... They destroy the shops of civilians. They destroy the cars of civilians. They are low enough to insult the prime minister of this country.

He urged his supporters to avoid violence themselves and predicted that he would defeat his opponents during local elections in March: "As long as you walk with us, the Justice and Development Party administration will stand strong. As long as there is life in my body, your prime minister and your party chairman, God willing, will not be deterred by anything."

He then traveled to the city of Mersin to make a similar speech and to open new sports facilities.

Later Sunday, Erdogan will speak to his supporters in the capital Ankara.

On the 10th day of mass protests against the Government, demonstrators near Istanbul's Taksim Square yell to Erdogan, "Tayyip, Resign!"

Libya: Deadly Clashes in Benghazi

At least 25 people have been killed in Benghazi in eastern Libya in clashes during Saturday's protests outside the headquarters of the Libya Shield Brigade, which is working with the Ministry of Defence.

Dozens more were wounded, according to medical officials.

Demonstrators had gathered outside the headquarters of the Brigade demanding the disbanding of militias, including those which fought during the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. They specifically called for the Brigade t leave its premises.

One witness said he had seen around 200 protesters. While most of them were unarmed, a few had AK-47 rifles, although he said he did not see them used.

A spokesman for the Libyan's Army Chief of Staff, Ali al-Sheikhi, described the Libya Shield Brigade as "a reserve force under the Libyan army." He said an attack on the brigade "is considered an attack against a legal entity".

The report, covering 21-27 May, concludes that the "prevailing attitude is quite negative [about the election] among those on Twitter".

Small Media found that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was the person most "worth following" on Twitter, despite his disqualification by the Guardian Council almost a week earlier.

Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, was the subject of the most tweets; however, only 21% of the communication was positive.

Reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref was the least discussed with only 331 tweets, 59% of which were deemed "neutral". On the positive side, Aref --- frequently compared to Mostafa Moein, the main reformist candidate in the 2005 election, had no negative Twitter communication and a slight surge in numbers "liking" his Facebook page.

The most popular candidate, with 63% "positive" tweets was the moderate Hassan Rouhani. "Rowhani" --- an English variant of the surname --- was also second to "Iran" as the most frequently tweeted word in the Iranian election discussion.

[Editor's Note: The report probably under-estimated Rouhani's prominence on social media. It only appears to consider the spelling "Rowhani" and not "Rouhani" or "Rohani".]

The candidate with the most negative tweets was leading MP Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, with more than half expressing disapproval. The most re-tweeted post about the candidate was: "Media frenzy says: 'Political backbenchers are useless, Haddad-Adel is useless'."

The least-known of the candidates, Mohammad Gharazi, seems to have had a late surge in support, judging from the sudden increase in his unofficial (because of the Iranian ban) Facebook page --- it doubled in followers between 21 and 27 May.

Activists with Jabhat al-Nusra Flag

The clash arose in April when the head of the ISI, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, tried to claim oversight of Jabhat al-Nusra in a message. A senior JAN commander, Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, responded by asserting the insurgents' autonomy in Syria.

Media coverage incorrectly claimed that the ISI and JAN had "merged", as well as emphasising al-Joulani's reference to al-Zawahari as a "pledge of allegiance".

Instead, the challenge for Jabhat al-Nusra was that --- even as it tried to maintain indpendence from the Iraqi faction --- its fighters might join ISI. Atassi claims that al-Baghdadi went as far as to travel to the suburbs of Aleppo to open offices. Local conflicts in Syria's largest city followed, according to JAN sources, with fighters who joined ISI refusing to give flour to the committee distributing the supplies to residents.

Amid the conflict, Jabhat al-Nusra’s official publication, al-Manara al-Baydaa (the White Minaret), suspended publication after it posted al-Jowlani's objection to the ISI's statement.

So, according to Atassi, al-Joulani sent a letter to Zawahiri to arbitrate between the two groups.

Atassi continues, from JAN sources, that Zawahiri sent letters to al-Joulani and al-Baghdadi last week, ruling in favour of Jabhat al-Nusra and appointing a commander named Abu Khaled al-Soury as a personal emissary "to oversee the implementation of the accord".

Rally in Istanbul's Taksim Square today

Libya: 11 Killed in Benghazi Clashes

At least 11 people were killed and 35 wounded in clashes on Saturday between protesters and a Libyan militia, operating with Ministry of Defence approval, in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Residents said dozens of protesters rallied outside the headquarters of the Government-backed Libya Shield brigade, demanding the disbanding of militias who have yet to disarm fter the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in October.

The Libya Shield brigade is made up of former insurgent who say they are aligned with the Ministry of Defence. A Government spokesman said special forces from the Libyan military had arrived at the scene.

Yemen: National Dialogue Resumes

Yemen has begun the second round of its national dialogue, aiming to draft a new Constitution and prepare for elections in 2014.

The talks are part of a United Nations-brokered deal that removed Ali Abdullah Saleh after 33 years in power, with President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi leading a transition.

Hadi said the dialogue had taken steps towards "drawing the outlines of a new Yemen where justice, equality and freedom prevail. Yemen can no longer withstand more crises and there are many challenges."

Istanbul Mayor Calls For Concessions on Gezi Park

Taking a sharply different line from the defiance of Prime Minister Erdogan, Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş has said no shopping malls or residences will be built on the site of Gezi Park.

Turkey's mass protests were sparked last week by Government plans to build a replica Ottoman-era military barracks. Topbas said the barracks will still be built, but is likely to be a city museum or an exposition centre.

Topbaş said most of the trees of the park could be incorporated into the project, adding that out of the 563 trees in the park, 72 were fit to be moved and another 26 could also be planted again but with some risks.

Ruling AKP: No Early Parliamentary Elections

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has dismissed talk of an early election amid continuing protests against the Erdogan Government.

After a four-hour meeting of the AKP Executive Council, attended by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and senior officials, a spokesman said the Parliamentary vote will be held in 2015 as scheduled: "There is political stability. Fortunately, there is no reason to require an early election."

The spokesman said the Government was ready and open to listen to “reasonable” demands, but would not accept the call of protesters for top security personnel --- including the Minister of Interior minister, Istanbul’s Governor, and top police officers -- to be relieved of duty: “Our Prime Minister will not [dismiss] anyone whom he believes is not responsible." The Taksim Solidarity Platform has demanded that the interior minister, Istanbul’s governor and police who have brutalized protesters should be investigated and stripped of their duty.

Meanwhile, the AKP has decided to hold “unity and solidarity” rallies on 15 June in Ankara and the next day in Istanbul.

Basij leader Mohammad Reza Naqdi While there has been considerable speculation --- much in the form of polls --- about which of the eight Presidential candidates is in the lead in the run-up to the June 14 election, the question that nobody can answer is what the turnout will be on the day.

A low turnout would indicate that Iranians are either apathetic about the election or that they feel that the regime will manipulate the results, and so there is no point in voting.

Rouhani Campaign Tweets Photo Of Tehran Mass Rally, + Video of Supporters Calling For Coalition

Moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani's campaign team tweeted a photograph of a rally at Tehran's Afrasiabi stadium and a video that shows supporters calling for a coalition between Rouhani and reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref.

Pro-Rouhani supporters tweeted other images of the rally, portraying a massive turnout and a surge in the support for the candidate.

Supporters of #Rouhani call for formation of coalition with #Aref (English subs, video from today) youtube.com/watch?v=XFDxyy… #hope #prudence

— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 8, 2013

Pic from today's mass #rally in support of #Rouhani in Tehran's 12,000-capacity Afrasiabi @stadium. #hope #prudence twitter.com/HassanRouhani/…

— Rouhani Campaign (@HassanRouhani) June 8, 2013

Rouhani: I Had To Answer Qalibaf In Debate

An EA correspondent writes: the video below --- showing moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani in his car --- was recorded after last night's debate.

At the beginning of the video someone on the road tells Rouhani well done and the man with him says he appreciates Rouhani for the answers he gave in the debate, and asks him what he thought about it.

Rouhani says: "I didn’t want to answer him [Principlist candidate Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf] like that but when I saw that he was not telling the truth, I had to say something to make sure people understand everything properly and also for historical records.  I had so many things to say but I wanted to follow morality. Unfortunately some people place justice and truth to one side in competition."

Ahmadinejad: Nuclear Talks Have Nothing to Do With Me

Confirming what EA has said for months, President Ahmadinejad has said that he is sidelined in Iran's negotiations over its nuclear programme.

Ahmadinejad, responding to allegations in the Presidential campaign, said, "People have said [lack of progress] is the fault of the government. I am not talking about the nuclear issue and do not intervene in the case Someone else is responsible."

Presidential Election: Haddad Adel Reconfirms No "Unity" Candidate

Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel has confirmed that --- contrary to months of promises from the Supreme Leader's 2+1 Committee, of which he is a member --- there will be no "unity" candidate in Friday's first-round election.

Haddad Adel said he would not withdraw, even for fellow Committee members Ali Akbar Velayati and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf:

Given my extensive experience and good relations with many managers, I can form a cabinet with efficient and revolutionary individuals on board. This is a reason of my decision to sign up in the first place and why I am planning to stay in the race.

Economy Watch: The Soaring Cost of Food

The BBC, citing the official Statistics Centre of Iran, offers some striking numbers about inflation between 2007 and 2013.

Sangak bread has almost doubled in cost. That, however, is only a small rise compared to a kilogramme of beef (470%), a litre of milk (350%), and a kilogramme of rice (7100%).

The national minimum wage has fallen more than 50% in real terms, while youth employment rose to 24.9% in 2012.

Has Rafsanjani Come Out In Support Of Rouhani?

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said that moderate candidate Hassan Rouhani is the "best choice" of the eight Presidential candidates, Mehr News and other sources are reporting this morning.

Rafsanjani: Rouhani is the best choice among the 8 candidates. #Iranelection

— Mehr News Agency (@MehrnewsCom) June 8, 2013

The report comes amid speculation that reformist candidate Mohammad-Reza Aref may step down in favor of Rouhani, in order to unify the moderate- centrist- reformist vote behind a single candidate. As we noted in a separate analysis this morning, backing from Rafsanjani and former President Khatami will be essential if such a coalition is to take place.

Hezbollah Praises "Jalili the Resistor"

Presidential candidate and Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili has tweeted a picture he said came from his supporters in Lebanon --- presumably Hezbollah (if the image is genuine).

پوستر ارسالی از هواداران سعید جلیلی در لبنان #Iranelection #Jalili #Iran twitter.com/DrSaeedJalili/…

— Saeed Jalili (@DrSaeedJalili) June 7, 2013

The image, in the colors of the Islamic Republic's flag, shows a photograph of a younger Jalili and the Arabic caption المقاوم --- the Resistor; the legend العدالة والحرية --- "Justice and Freedom", and then a current photograph of Jalili with the caption الدبلوماسي --- the Diplomatist.

Hanif Zarrabi-Kashani of the Wilson Center notes that the Qazvin News Network has provided short profiles of the eight candidates, with photographs of them and their children.

Mohsen Rezaei And Son

Regime "Harasses Radoio Farda Journalists"

The director of Radio Farda, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty's Persian service, has said that harassment against his reporters has increased in recent weeks.

"The harassment has intensified in the past several weeks, as the authorities take all possible precautions against anything that may challenge their control over the elections," Armand Mostofi said.

Radio Farda said it had documented nine incidents of harassment during May, in which reporters' family members in Iran have been interrogated and asked to persuade their relatives to stop working for Radio Farda or stay but work for Iranian intelligence, RFE/ RL report.

Observations after Friday's third and final Presidential debate, following a conversation with a leading EA correspondent on Iran:

1. THE CONSERVATIVES AND PRINCIPLISTS FALL APART

The immediate headline that the debate was more interesting than the previous two, because of conflict among the eight candidates, does not begin to capture the extent of the division --- notably among those men who supposedly are close to the Supreme Leader's camp.

Our correspondent summarises, "This was a free-for-all in which all went after each other, including the [members of the Supreme Leader's] 2+1 Committee. This showed the three men of the 2+1 do not have anything in common."

One of the 2+1 members, the Supreme Leader's senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, criticised the others for not knowing about international affairs, advising them to read his book on the 1980s Iran-Iraq War.

Then Velayati got specific. He said that his colleague on the Committee, leading MP Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, was ignorant about diplomacy.

A heated argument followed with the third member of the 2+1, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Velayati, a long-time Foreign Minister, was boasting about his contacts in the 1980s and 1990s with world leaders like France's Francois Mitterand when Qalibaf snapped, "While you were drinking with Mitterand in the Elysee Palace, we were drinking French missiles on the war front [with Iraq]."

Velayati responded that Qalibaf had no idea re history, as the "drink with Mitterand" came long after the war was over.

Velayati's most interesting clash, however, was with Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council and lead nuclear negotiator.

Velayati went after Jalili over the two rounds of nuclear talks with the 5+1 Powers in February and April. The Supreme Leader's aide indicated a deal was on the table --- with three European countries tabling a proposal that would have suspended three key sanctions on the Islamic Republic --- but Jalili insisted on "all or nothing".

Velayati summarised, "Negotiations is not showing up and moralising with slogans."

2. THE DIVISION AMONG SUPREME LEADER'S INNER CIRCLE OVER NUCLEAR TALKS

The Velayati-Jalili confrontation offers a wider lesson beyond this election. Far from maintaining a unified line against the "West" on the nuclear programme, the Supreme Leader's advisors have been split for years over the approach. Velayati has been among the advisors seeking an accommodation, but --- at least in his account --- has been blocked by others who have refused to conclude a deal.

In another telling passage in the debate, Velayati said that a settlement was imminent in talks in 2007 between the head of the European Union, Javier Solana, and Iran's Ali Larijani --- now Speaker of Parliament --- but this was undermined by someone, presumably President Ahmadinejad, in a speech objecting to any agreement.

Our correspondent summarises:

This display really weakened Iran's hand in the nuclear negotiations.

Imagine if you are a member of the 5+1 watching this debate. You have one faction around Ayatollah Khamenei ready to talk, but you have another refusing.

With the inner circle very divided, you don't budge --- you wait for them to crack.

3. CAN THE SUPREME LEADER RESCUE THE SITUATION?

One obvious "solution" for this division is for the regime to decide on an outcome for the first-round ballot on 14 June and then make sure it happens. In the words of our correspondent, "The elephant in the room is whether the votes which are cast are the votes which wind up in ballot box."

Specifically, our correspondent --- who has been far from impressed from Saeed Jalili, on the campaign trail or in yesterday's debate --- believes that there is no way he can be among the top two vote-getters if turnout is high. So, "if Jalili is put through to the final round in a ballot with at least 60% participation, you can bet there has been manipulation."

But, if this is being considered by the Supreme Leader's camp, there is a major problem in comparison with the 2009 election. Then, it was only a question of ensuring that a single candidate --- President Ahmadinejad --- triumphed against the opposition.

This time, it is a matter of picking one or two candidates from among four --- Velayati, Haddad Adel, Qalibaf, and Jalili --- to go to the final ballot on 28 June. That step is likely to only increase division among conservatives and principlists, with resentment among the followers of those who are not chosen.

An alternative for the Supreme Leader is to sit on his hands at this point and not express any preference, waiting to see who is strongest in the first-round ballot. There is precedent for this: Ayatollah Khamenei did not go for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad until late in the 2005 campaign, tapping him over Qalibaf.

This time, however, waiting carries the risk that the squabbling amongst those around the Supreme Leader will only get worse, shaking an already fragile election process.

4. CAN THE MODERATES AND REFORMISTS TAKE ADVANTAGE?

The failure to find a "unity" candidate has opened up space for the two men who are not as close to the Supreme Leader --- "moderate" Hassan Rouhani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and reformist Mohammad Reza Aref.

The prospect of one of the two men making it to the final round --- almost unthinkable when Rafsanjani was barred from standing in the election --- is now real. While Rouhani did not capitalise on his recent surge in yesterday's debate, Aref was sharp. Our correspondent assesses, "He was sharp and did not shy away from the reformist legacy. If the election is not manipulated, that could bring support, especially among younger voters."

Reallistically, however, the best chance for Rouhani or Aref to be in the top two on 14 June is for one man to withdraw in favour of the other before the vote. Will that happen?

Our correspondent speaks bluntly:

That will only happen if former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Rafsanjani call publicly for a coalition.

If they do so, then we may have something special in this campaign.

The Wounded from Qusayr

Al Jazeera English reports from Arsal in Lebanon, where some of those wounded during the three-week battle for Qusayr have been taken:

Hezbollah Denies Its Fighters Captured In Damascus Province

Hezbollah's media relations office issued a statement Saturday denying a report that insurgents had captured several of its fighters in Damascus province.

"Hezbollah categorically denies these baseless reports," the statement reads.

The response comes after Local Coordination Committees announced on Friday that the Free Syrian Army had succeeded in capturing several Hezbollah and the Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade fighters in Damascus province after seizing "several posts west of Muadhamiyat as-Sham".

The Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade --- which first appeared around 14 months ago --- has said via social media that its aim is to defend the Shia Zaynab Shrine in southern Damascus. The Guardian's Martin Chulov profiled the group in a story earlier this week, noting that:

Interviews with serving and former members of Abu Fadl al-Abbas suggest that upwards of 10,000 volunteers – all of them Shia Muslims, and many from outside Syria – have joined their ranks in the past year alone. The group's raison d'etre is to be custodian of Shia holy sites, especially Sayyida Zeinab, a golden-domed Damascus landmark, but its role has taken it to most corners of Syria's war. It is now a direct battlefield rival, both in numbers and power, for Jabhat al-Nusra, the jihadist group that takes a prominent role among opposition fighting groups.

Demonstration In Aleppo

The video below shows a crowd of what appeared to be mostly boys and young men marching an unspecified neighborhood of Aleppo, many waving Islamic State of Iraq flags. Halab News Network, which posted the video, said that the marchers demanded the creation of an Islamic state in Syria.

Car Bomb In Homs

Eight people have been killed, including three women and a teenager, in a car bomb attack on a Shia neighborhood of Homs, Syrian state TV has reported.

State-run al-Ikhbariya TV said the car was booby-trapped.

Video: Scud Attack On Kfar Hamra And Ma'ara, Aleppo

The video shown below shows what activists said was a double Scud missile strike on Kfar Hamra, a village just outside Aleppo. Another strike took place in Ma'ara, west of Aleppo and roughly halfway between that city and the Turkish border, again according to activists.

Map showing the location of Kfar Hamra:

LBCI in al-Bweida al-Sharqiya, al-Qusayr

Lebanese broadcaster LBCI sent a team of reporters and a camera crew to the village of al-Bweida al-Sharqiya on the northern outskirts of al-Qusayr. LBCI said that their team was able to enter the village after insurgent fighters left.

LBCI reporters said that the village was empty and that there were scenes of destruction.

The Syrian Army showed the reporter around an elementary school in al-Bweida and a soldier explained that it had been used by insurgents as a makeshift hospital. Empty metal-framed beds still remain in several of the schoolrooms --- the floors of which are covered in blood. Dressings and other medical supplies are stored on shelves in some of the rooms. Wounded insurgents from al-Qusayr were evacuated to the village after regime forces captured it.

LBCI also sent a crew into al-Qusayr on Friday, and were told by Syrian government officials that there were plans to clear the city --- all but destroyed after three weeks of heavy fighting --- so that residents could return to their homes.

State Media: Regime Forces Take Village Near Qusayr

State news agency SANA claims that regime forces "restored security and stability to al-Buweida al-Sharqiya" village, near Qusayr --- the strategic town re-claimed by the Syrian military this week --- and the Lebanese border.

An "official source" said the village was occupied after "eliminating the last gatherings of terrorists there".

Civilians and wounded fleeing the fighting in Qusayr had gone to al-Buweida.

Propaganda of the Day

State news agency SANA headlines that Syria's envoy to the UN in Geneva, Ambassador Fayssal al-Hamwi, has affirmed the regime's commitment to cooperation with the UN "in addressing humanitarian needs".

During a session on Friday over the UN's plan to meet humanitarian needs, al-Hamwi said Damascus had a plan "which includes around 100 projects covering various vital sectors".

The UN has been appealing to the regime for months to allow access to civilians in areas affected by the conflict, claiming more than 4 million people have been displaced inside the country. Last week, Damascus turned down an appeal by the Red Cross to reach those trapped in the besieged town of Qusayr.

However, Al-Hamwi "pointed out the great burden Syria is shouldering in terms of meeting needs and tackling challenges caused by targeting infrastructure".

Kurds v. Insurgents in the North

Claimed footage of Kurdish fighters retaking villages near Efrin from insurgents --- local militia have been fighting elements of the insurgency, including the Free Syrian Army, for weeks:

UN to Russia on Offer of Peacekeeping Troops: Thanks, But No Thanks

The United Nations said on Friday that it cannot accept Russia's offer to replace peacekeepers from Austria in the Golan Heights, because an agreement between Israel and Syria bars permanent members of the Security Council from the UN mission.

The UN expressed appreciation for Moscow's statement, made on Friday by President Vladimir Putin after Austria said it would recall its 380 troops from the 1000-strong monitoring force in the demilitarised zone between Syria and Israel-occupied territory.

The UN is asking others in the force, notably the Philippines and India, to increase their troop contributions and is looking at the possibility of new countries sending troops, while asking the Austrians to slow down their departure.

Casualties

The Violations Documentation Center reports that 62,973 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict since March 2011, an increase of 124 from Friday. Of the deaths, 48,630 were civilians, a rise of 65 from yesterday.