Energy: Oil, Natural Gas and Renewable Energy

Karl Miller on US Energy Policy

2011-12-22T14:53:00.000-08:00

Interview excerpt with Karl W. Miller of NEAH Energy on present day U.S. Energy Policy

See following Video Link: http://vimeo.com/33893550

ARI Holdings, Inc. (ARI)-Leader in Technical and Hazardous Duty Training to Energy Sector

2011-06-01T10:12:00.000-07:00

We affirm "Buy Opinion" on Energy Service Companies, especially those providing technical and hazardous duty training. Our top pick is the ARI Holdings, Inc. (ARI), who has quietly created a dominant position in North America with a top tier list of global energy and industrial corporations.

ARI Holdings Inc. is a leading vocational training solutions provider committed to delivering compliance, education, certification, and industrial training to the energy and hazardous duty industrial sectors.

http://slidesha.re/lHQPXZ

IHS sounds a note of Niobrara caution | Denver Business Journal

2011-04-30T14:31:00.000-07:00

Shale Oil/Gas Production Output Risk:IHS sounds a note of Niobrara caution | Denver Business Journal

Bailout Nation: U.S. Federal Reserve has put Economy in a "Lose Lose Position"

2011-04-28T20:21:00.000-07:00

Bailout Nation: U.S. Federal Reserve has put Economy in a "Lose Lose Position" and has only re-inflated the Banks and hedge funds with cash

Why the Federal Reserve "Is" Creating An Asset Bubble

2011-04-27T11:57:00.001-07:00

| about stocks: CHK, EOG, DVN, SWN, SD, HK, EP, WMB, RRC, XOM, XTO, BP, CVX, OXY, APA, APC

We believe every qualified investor does their own detailed analysis of the Economy and Individual Companies, so we won't bother with driving into details that we expect investors should already know.

However, a summary of why the U.S. Federal Reserve is perpetuating a prior asset bubble, the U.S. Real Estate market, and creating a new more dangerous asset bubble, the U.S. Equity Markets, so we will lay out the highlights:

-The new normal is a perpetual unemployment target rate of 10%. The current real unemployment rate is 15% nationally when those that are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits or executives who do not qualify are included.

-The fact that the S&P is trading at 17-18 times earnings, is not comparable to prior periods where 30 times earnings was considered normal. Thus the S&P multiple for companies should trade much lower in the "new normal economy"

-U.S. Corporations may have record amounts of cash, but that cash is not being deployed and translated into real GDP and increasing consumer income. In essence, corporations are becoming wealthier due to virtually zero interest rates for the highest quality companies, lower debt service and stock repurchases, all which centralize wealth, not distribute it.

-Real asset prices continue to decline across the U.S. Trillions of dollars of Mortgaged backed securities have been purposely warehoused by the U.S. Federal Reserve at Face Value and loans made to Commercial Banks and Hedge Funds based on this defunct collateral, which has not been written down to net realizable value. So the Real Estate asset bubble and lie continues, even while the real underlying asset prices continue to decline and are projected to decline another 25% in 2011. Some call this the Ponzi Scheme the U.S. Federal Reserve is running.

-Then there is the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve, in collusion with the Primary Dealer Banks is manipulating the U.S. Treasury market to artificially pump up prices of Treasury securities and depress market yields, thus keeping the cost of money to the major commercial banks at zero %, while the average U.S. Consumer has virtually no access to a mortgage, a consumer loan, or any other comparable credit, which should be priced between 4-8%.

Thus to summarize, when we pull back the covers on the U.S. Economy; real estate values continue to decline, consumers are not able to access new mortgage, real unemployment is 15% with the new normal target of 10%, wealth is being centralized in the large commercial banks and corporations due to Federal Reserve capital subsidies, and the U.S. Debt to GDP ratio is completely out of control to the point that the U.S. Treasury Debt could be considered "Junk Bonds" when the Federal Reserve and Treasury Balance sheets were combined and "marked to real market value".

So, is the Federal Reserve perpetuating an artificial asset bubble? Absolutely and it is the most dangerous financial crisis ever to hit the U.S.

‘Limited’ first-quarter U.S. growth to be revealed Economic Preview - MarketWatch

2011-04-24T10:04:00.000-07:00

‘Limited’ first-quarter U.S. growth to be revealed Economic Preview - MarketWatch

Resistance to Gas Drilling Rises on Unlikely Soil in Texas - NYTimes.com

2011-04-24T09:50:00.000-07:00

Resistance to Gas Drilling Rises on Unlikely Soil in Texas - NYTimes.com

Europe at the precipice - Street Sweep: Fortune's Wall Street Blog

2011-04-22T17:26:00.000-07:00

Europe at the precipice - Street Sweep: Fortune's Wall Street Blog

Natural Gas from Fracking Could Be 'Dirtier' Than Coal - US News and World Report

2011-04-22T17:18:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas from Fracking Could Be 'Dirtier' Than Coal - US News and World Report

Pickens’ Clean Energy Fuel Faces Challenges (CLNE, CHK, DVN, EOG, HAL, NOV) | tickerspy Newswire

2011-04-18T19:34:00.000-07:00

We remain short natural gas producers and maintain a sell rating on the sector as overpriced and no pricing power. Pickens’ Clean Energy Fuel Faces Challenges (CLNE, CHK, DVN, EOG, HAL, NOV) | tickerspy Newswire

Saudi Slashes Oil Output; Says Market Oversupplied - CNBC

2011-04-17T16:57:00.000-07:00

We have been very clear on this point, no supply problem Saudi Slashes Oil Output; Says Market Oversupplied - CNBC

U.S. economy in rough patch. Will it last? Economic Preview - MarketWatch

2011-04-17T12:29:00.000-07:00

U.S. economy in rough patch. Will it last? Economic Preview - MarketWatch

House Democrats Say Hydraulic Fracturing Fluids Contain Toxic Ingredients - WSJ.com

2011-04-16T20:04:00.000-07:00

House Democrats Say Hydraulic Fracturing Fluids Contain Toxic Ingredients - WSJ.com

House report details fracking chemicals « Sustained Outrage

2011-04-16T19:29:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas Producers: Environmental liabilities mountingHouse report details fracking chemicals « Sustained Outrage

'Fracking' for natural gas also splits towns and families - USATODAY.com

2011-04-16T19:07:00.000-07:00

Bottom Line: We just don't see the Natural Gas Producers being allowed to continue Hydraulic Fracking in many U.S. States, especially the eastern U.S. The simple facts are that Producers are injecting toxic chemicals into each horizontally drilled well and those chemicals permeate the rock formation. There is no proven method to separate toxic chemicals from the rock formations and groundwater tables. We predict development will be pushed off-shore to the Gulf of Mexico again where better technology can be utilized. 'Fracking' for natural gas also splits towns and families - USATODAY.com

Week Ahead: Earnings Stumbles Could Awaken Bears - CNBC

2011-04-16T10:24:00.000-07:00

We expect Natural Gas and Oil Product prices to decline. Supply continues to be plentiful, demand continues to decline and the "Speculative Fear Trade" is fading. Week Ahead: Earnings Stumbles Could Awaken Bears - CNBC

The clean-tech jobs of ‘33% by 2020’ - SignOnSanDiego.com

2011-04-16T06:54:00.000-07:00

The clean-tech jobs of ‘33% by 2020’ - SignOnSanDiego.com

Oilman Seeks Subsidies for Alt Fuel - Barrons.com

2011-04-16T06:50:00.000-07:00

Oilman Seeks Subsidies for Alt Fuel - Barrons.com

Natural gas 'fracking' proposal draws 35K public comments to Delaware River Basin Commission | NJ.com

2011-04-16T06:44:00.000-07:00

Natural gas 'fracking' proposal draws 35K public comments to Delaware River Basin Commission | NJ.com

Is Natural Gas All It’s Cracked Up to Be? – National Geographic News Watch

2011-04-15T08:41:00.000-07:00

Is Natural Gas All It’s Cracked Up to Be? – National Geographic News Watch

Just How Green is Natural Gas? - Technology Review

2011-04-15T06:00:00.000-07:00

Just How Green is Natural Gas? - Technology Review

Two New Reports: Natural Gas Not as Clean as We Thought » INFRASTRUCTURIST

2011-04-14T11:46:00.000-07:00

Two New Reports: Natural Gas Not as Clean as We Thought » INFRASTRUCTURIST

Strong Northwest hydro season could cut natural gas demand by 295 Bcf

2011-04-14T05:13:00.000-07:00

Strong Northwest hydro season could cut gas demand by 295 Bcf: Bentek
Houston (Platts)--13Apr2011/623 pm EDT/2223 GMT

What is shaping up to be a very strong Pacific Northwest hydropower season will likely eliminate about 295 Bcf of natural gas demand in West Coast power markets over the first eight months of 2011, Bentek Energy said in a report Wednesday.

As a result of the reduced demand, the consulting firm said it expects Henry Hub gas prices to average about $3.95/MMBtu in the spring and summer. Bentek is a unit of Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Northwest River Forecast Center on Tuesday predicted river flows on the Washington/Oregon border will be 121% of normal from April through September and river flow predictions have been near or above 100% of normal throughout the 2010-2011 forecast season that began in December.

And earlier this month, the US Army Corps of Engineers said hydroelectric production at 23 dams in the Pacific Northwest was about 8.8 million MWh in March, 52% above the 10-year average and more than twice the output in March 2010.

Bentek said an average of 1.2 Bcf/d of gas demand disappeared in the first quarter because of increased hydro generation and predicted that hydro output is unlikely to slow until August.

In addition, the company projected that hydro generation will average 166 GWh/d between April and August, 35% above normal, depressing wholesale electricity prices across the Pacific Northwest as well as in California and Southwest markets, which import power from the region.

In April, gas generation levels will be 54% below normal as some 1.7 Bcf/d is displaced by hydro --- a peak for the season, according to Bentek.

Bentek predicted that by July less gas will be displaced because of an increase in overall consumption.

So far this year, electricity exports from the Pacific Northwest have been an average of 42% above normal, Bentek said 83% above year-ago levels. "Power exports form the Northwest are expected to continue to top year-ago and normal levels through August, based on current snowpack levels and hydro forecasts," the report said.

Gas traders in the region said forward prices are not showing the level of demand loss Bentek is projecting.

"Cash is trading pretty high to NYMEX prompt so that may be keeping a floor under [forward] basis for now," a Western financial trader said. "Storage is lower than forecast right now, so [that's] probably some support for a while. If there's no heat early and we get big injections then prices should tank quickly," he said.

Platts forward gas prices for Northwest Pipeline at Sumas, Washington, have actually tightened over recent months. Its summer 2011 package was assessed Wednesday up 5 cents since the beginning of the year to minus 42.5 cents/MMBtu to the NYMEX.

Natural Gas prices will drop to $3.25-3.50/mmbtu

2011-04-13T13:53:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas prices will drop to $3.25-3.50/mmbtu
MyStockhouse:

U.S. Natural Gas Producer Stock Prices Expected to Decline 15-20%

2011-04-13T09:25:00.001-07:00

Natural Gas Market Update: We have been warning that Natural Gas producers were substantially over-valued across the board, on P/E and Discounted Cash Flow basis, given projected long term depressed prices in the $4mmbtu price range, substantial over-supply which will persist the next 3-5 years, mounting environmental liabilities and costs, and lack of fundamental demand.

We view the most at risk producers to be Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Devon Energy (DVN), Range Resources (RRC), and Southwestern Energy (SWN). These producers could see price declines in excess of 20%, retracing non-sustainable appreciation during the past six months.