Epic call on trading fate

ES is hitting higher

2010-04-14T12:27:00.001+02:00

ES targets could be 1202.25-1206.75

Current ES chart:

Current SPX chart:

Moving forward faster - target range in /ES 1294 - 1451+ for Aug-Oct

2010-04-07T00:50:00.000+02:00

The velocity of /ES to move higher, and its angle during the past two weeks could be more probable indication of already running wave (Y). According to this scenario we will not, as expected, drop down too much, and should be already in the wave (a) of (Y).

The (a) is not yet complete, but looking like building LDT (Leading Diagonal Triangle) or a first wave of bigger LDT of (a). The past waves of (A) from 666 had identical structures. Here is the same chart zoomed, to give you the idea how it may look like.

Based on this observation, I see the end of wave (a) in the next 30 days, building new higher highs. After it complete, we should see a fast a-b-c drop as (b) above the blue line between 17%-38% of previous wave. The last similar drop took only 31%.

Based on this scenario, there are some good news for BULLs and BEARs:

The minimal extension of wave (Y) is 1294 in /ES, 100% would be 1451.
The period for (Y) to reach the top is about from August to October 2010.

Detailed targets should follow when (a) and (b) are complete.

Finally the short-term picture of SPX

I expect to see 1180.60 for wave overlapping between 1LDT and 4LDT, the final 5 LDT could run into the 1200 area.

P.S. The weekly and daily RSI are strong overbought, I thing we should see the divergence, until the (Y) is over.

Yury

1180.69 is the top of for the next few month

2010-03-26T00:41:00.002+01:00

Today we could finally made the last wave 5 from 1087 (the y-wave) and probably also completed the rise from 1044, marked as wave (a)/(w). RSI showed divergence in the last few days and should now turn down. The next wave structure is (b)/(x) wave, which has no special correction targets, and depending on structure can reach less or more than 61.8% retracement at 1092.55 in ES. Any break of 1092.50 will confirm the running (b)/(x).

However there is still one alternative open, that the wave y will extend higher. The Mob for pink alternative is the break of 1124.50 in ES. Afterwards we should see the (c)/(y) up into the 1250th area to complete the B/X. Mob for B/X is 1261.75 in ES.

Here is the current daily chart of /ES.

EUR in the final Wave (v) - should be almost done

2010-03-25T07:10:00.000+01:00

Big divergences in EUR/USD in daily chart - we are finishing the final wave (v) down.

and the 1h chart

NOT A BULL MARKET UNTIL 2017/2018 – The Global picture

2010-03-25T06:15:00.001+01:00

Ok, I am back on EWwaving and EWtrading, Hey! I am 30 years old and was born in Kiev, Ukraine and now live in Germany. Trading and Elliot Waves are my passion. I work as a consultant in the securities industry.

After failed hunting the wave IV, P2 or whatever, losing money and mind, I took a personal break, and during this time I was able to re-analyze the global picture, which I would like to discuss in this post. In the last few month I also have realized, that there are two big groups of traders who emotionally BELIEF in BULL or BEAR markets. If an investor is talking about a BEAR market, everyone is adjusting their EW count to a P2 scenario, with a utopian target of around 1,000 in DOW in several years (e.g. EWI). The other group, BULLS, are seeing the beginning of aBULL market with a DOW target about 20,000 in the same time. The discrepancy is about 19,000 dow points. But the are a lot of reasons, why both these cases do not make any sense.

The BULL case: everyone knows, that government world-wide is printing money (FED, EZB), less tax-incomes are increasing public/national debt DRAMATICALLY (German’s debt in 2009 increased by 7.1% or 112 Bil. EUR, US budget deficit hit a record $1.4 trillion in 2009, etc.). Unemployment hit over 10% in the USA and is probably bad on average in Europe. Even if the stocks are rising, it means for me nothing than the notional VALUE of money is just GETTING DESTROYED. Or in other words – hidden increase of INFLATION. Inflation will be a very good way to pay back the dept in the coming decade(s). But in reality, we just know only 10% of the big story, without mentioning any impacts of CDS’s, defaulted Corporate Loans, CDOs and other financial issues, we will be faced with its impact on us and the economy in the next 5-10 years. For me there is no one single reason from an economical perspective, which gives me at least one single argument to say that we are done with the recession. If you do not believe me, there are 4 economic cycles in every economics school book you can learn in your second semester. When we will see the Bull market we are still missing one cycle in between.

The P2 BEAR case: I just want to point, that this case is coming from EWI, which will be destroyed, after we reach a new high. Dow at 1,000 and S&P500 at 150 is not realistic, at least only because of the huge amount of virtual money, printed by the FED. Such case means unemployment of more than 50% – possible, but until the FED has a right to issue money, bonds, which will be accepted by all WMF members (hope you understand what I mean) – I see this case as UTOPIA. Even if everything gets worthless, Apple/Amazon/Google will have enough cash to hold Nasdaq100 over 900 – joke. Mr. Preacher- please adjust your count!!!

And the OTHER case: I was looking for some other case, which adjusts to the economical and political issues, we have seen from year 2000 till this time, when the economy can REALLY solve the old and new issues, to give people and government new BREATH for the BULL run. Two weeks ago I read an article in a German newspaper, which described the situation, when all EU countries will reduce its debt deficit by only 0.5%/year, only in 2018/20 we can reach the same economical state of 2007. Historically we had similar economical disasters, which took on average 17/18 years to solve, and produced finally a new BULL run. This happened in 1906-1923, and in 1966-83. The similarity is obvious to the time from the year 2000. If in 2000 we completed only the cycle III, we should be in the cycle IV. Based on new count I see a Double Flat formation, which will last until 2017/2018. Between 2000 and 2009 we only finished the (W) wave, which has an irregular flat pattern. Now we should be in the (X) wave into the 1500ish area. Please see the daily chart below.

Daily Wave count: We are in the wave (X) which is moving from 666, and has a target between 95%-110% of Wave (W). The minor (A)/(W) is already finished. Now we are in the (B)/(X)-wave. The first A/W-wave of (B)/(X) is finished, and I am counting the B/X wave. Right now we should be in the (a)/(w) of B/X.

Short term count: the red (a)/(w) shows a w-x-y pattern right now, it is still not clear, how the y-wave will extend. I see a sub-wave structure of a-b-c waves, where the first part of a' of y is complete and we are now in the b' of y. In the next days we should complete the b' wave which can be irregular or running flat and start the final up c' of y, with a minimum target of 0.618 of a, which is right now about 1204.5. But depending where the b' will end, the min target of y need to be adjusted.

For any questions or comments, fill free to write me: yury.menchinskiy@gmail.com. I hang out at MortiES Premium during the trading day.

Update for ESZ9 for 12/4/09

2009-12-03T22:20:00.003+01:00

Hello, the market today finely broke out from its balance with a nice spike. Levels for Tomorrow are 1091, 1095, 1105. The unemployment number may add some volatility and may even surprise, therefore difficult to say in what sequence those numbers may come. Possible levels for the 30y bond (h10) are 120-121 range.

ES Z9 update for 11/25/09

2009-11-25T22:38:00.003+01:00

Market found balance in 1109 area. Russell and NQ look weaker then ES, and bond also broke out to upside from its long term bracket. Dollar took another dive and send gold and oil up. However, i think that this is a "holiday effect". Money moved in to "safer" assets. ES value continues to move up and continues to close above 1100. Possibility now include a move above the 1112.25 high starting from 1107. Bellow support can be found again at 1100 and 1095.

ES possibilities for 11/25/09

2009-11-25T07:40:00.004+01:00

Hello. On Tuesday the esz9 had a non trend day but made an extension in to the highs at the end of the day following the fed minutes confirming low rates for extended periods of time. As long as the real rates remain negative, stocks will continue to go higher. Tuesday possibilities are to continue to rotate sideways in a range between 1100-1110, with 1106 as resistance or possible point around which the market will rotate. Volume again should be low. (refer to profile picture) It is possible for a break out from the bracket, but perhaps not until next week. The level at 1100 seems to show buyers. Below it are 1095 and 1090. It is also possible that the market may want to take stops above 1113, so i would be watching for that. Again, depends on what type of a day it is, if it seems like a trend day then we know not to fade the stop run, if it seems like a neutral or non trend day taking out stops then we will fade it.

Late update for ESZ9

2009-11-23T20:49:00.003+01:00

Hello. The market went up to 1111 and the auction failed, then retraced all the way back to day session open, where only a small range extension occurred. The day trading is within initial balance, the market is balanced here and both seller and buyer are not very confident. This means the market can be easily tipped, it is awaiting some unexpected event, depending on how we close, we may have a bias for tomorrow.

Monday possibility for ES mini.

2009-11-23T02:57:00.004+01:00

Hello. Last Thursday the market sell off had all characteristics of a long liquidation. Following Friday the market balanced around 1089 on a very small volume so that most of the options expire worthless. There is a divergence between the advancers and the price. Given this, the market may continue to balance or transision to imbalance. The buyers seem to be around the 1087/85 area. And the balance of last Friday and later half of last Thursday was in the past weeks value area. (Refer to the profile picture). Given this data, my personal bias is for ES to move higher, with the possible sequence of events: 1091 can serve as the springboard for a move up to 1100 (1100 is a psychological level, market rejects this level quickly and either moves above it or below it) Resistance will be at 1095. It is also possible for further balancing around 1091 as a mid point with 1086 as support and 1095 as resistance. (Refer to the profile picture). The bond seems to be balancing in a bracket at the top of a much larger bracket. Therefore, should be also easily tipped. The day structure of last Friday suggests to me that the bond may again either balance or move down. The resistance levels for the bond are 120.28, and 121.02.

Who's trap is that - this is the BULL'z trap (pre OPEX Day Analysis)

2009-11-20T02:32:00.001+01:00

Well,
everyone in the EW blog world has identified this nice triangle as wave iv, and was looking for a higher wave v to enter short or cover longs. Even EWI posted yesterday a nice chart with the final wave v approach, but it was just too perfect to be true. Instead of to reach long-waited target of 1121 in /ES, which was only ca. 10 points away, we dropped almost 25 points into the north, broke all trend-lines down and made the global picture again unreal complex.

Why I think it is complex - because:

We really don't know where we are now - is this end of the trend up, aka P2 is over, or is this just some-kind of wave iv, or a wave B
Tomorrow is OPEX and market has not confessed its direction to me, which means for me we have good chance to go up or down next 20-25 pts.
It is obvious that on OPEX day market is very volatile

In reality I don't know the direction yet. But what I know are the high OI levels in SPX (here is the chart).
Puts Levels:

- 1090

- 1050
Calls Levels:

- 1100

- 1130

My EW Scenario
I really don't think yet we have topped yet. But if even - I don't mind. Based on SPX analysis the move up is very obvious over - wave (a). Now we should be in the wave (b) or (i). Any move higher to 1110 will reactivate the (v) wave. Until this is not the case - I see the running wave (b), where we have or now finishing the a wave of it. For tomorrow I marked the most important OI levels - 1090-1100. This is from my understanding the range where the market will be tomorrow, with a final touch-down into the b.

What will be next - time will tell us.

Dr. Livesey

Update for 19 Nov on ES – today’s action is only Long liquidation, tomorrow UP

2009-11-19T20:59:00.001+01:00

Looks like market found balance area near the low of the initial balance. Buyers are at the 1087 area and this looks like a long liquidation.

OPEX ranges for tomorrow - mid day ES update for 19. November 2009

2009-11-19T17:27:00.008+01:00

Hello.
I would like to direct your attention to the day session action so far. The open of /ES Z9 was below the 1106 area, open was an open drive that took the market to the bigger support of 1087 area (look at the profile photo).

The initial balance was 13 points, advancers did not make new lows but the market did. Although the up/down volume ration seems huge over -16:1, it is deceiving because the actual down volume so far is only 373871K, (this will increase as the day progresses however). At this point it is still not clear if this is simply long liquidation, or a variation day or a normal day. I would also like to point out that yesterday cash 1090 puts had higher volume then open interest (Look at figure)

Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine - now 1.3 million infected in Ukraine, and over 75,000 hospitalized -- IN FOURTEEN DAYS

2009-11-19T02:36:00.000+01:00

ES Profile analysis for 19. November 2009

2009-11-19T00:24:00.001+01:00

There are a number of possibilities for tomorrow. We are in a very tight bracket, we can either continue to balance around the 1106 area or the market may break out using 1106 as a spring board. Bonds demonstrated some weakness today and can continue to push down, which should help propel ES higher. Advancers are roughly in the middle of their range, so this market can be tipped quite easily. Other possibilities are to continue to balance around 1106, or even rotate between 1106 and 1095. Bellow 1095 is a 1087 area. Refer to the profile picture. I will be looking for where and what type of open we have tomorrow after the numbers come out in the morning. If the open is within today's range with small initial balance, i'll be looking for a trend day up.

The last bull-ah-week is almoust over

2009-11-18T22:51:00.002+01:00

Today /ES was not very kind to us by the morning up-move, which ended at 1110.75. Fist I was thinking that the last wave (v) is under way and was happy about my longs. But after the drop down I was not sure about the next up.

For the last move is see now several possibilities:

an i-ii-iii-iv-v impulsive move up (which already began)
(1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) EDT move up, if so we should be in the wave (3) right now
we are still in the wave (iv), which is ~~LDT~~ Diagonal and can chop again tomorrow in this area with a low at 1103.85 in cash, and after jump into the final (v)

But now it is more clear that this up-and-down today belongs to the wave (iv), which means tomorrow or on Friday (OPEX day) we should see the development of the final wave (v) of [v] of (C/A/v) of (I still don't know where we really are - P2, IV or whatever it is). After the wave [v] is over, we should retrace first into the level of wave [iv], which is around 1085 cash and than into the 1029 cash. After we need to see the structure of the move to understand what really it is.

I will leave you with the chart of my 5 min count.

Market Analysis for 17 Nov. 2009

2009-11-17T04:19:00.004+01:00

I am not really sure, how this market will move forward, but anyone is filling, that we are not far away from the top.

For tomorrow the most important area in SPX is 1097.49. If it breaks before any significant move into the higher level, I would rather look for shorts as for longs. Based on my count we should be in the wave (iii) of [v]. Any push lower to the blue line will probably identify the begin of next down-trend. In 5 min. RSI shows negative divergence. The significant area for the up-trend is 50% retracement at 1121.44 from the 666.xx low.

Here is also a 60 min picture of my SPX count:

P.S. VIX hasn't confirmed this up move and lost only 2.01%.

Profile forecast for /ES Z9
High:1108
Low:1095

Trading Tools

2009-11-17T03:29:00.006+01:00

Here is our favourite list of different trading tools:

Charting
www.esignal.com
www.prophet.net

News
www.marketwatch.com News in real time
www.stocktwits.com/ Watch Twits related to stocks

Tools
www.google.com/reader/ Google RSS reader
www.twitter.com
www.skype.com

The Big Picture

2009-11-17T02:36:00.000+01:00

I would like to provide here on several updates the Big Picture, based on my Elliot Waves count

List of important Trading Rules

2009-11-17T01:55:00.004+01:00

Here will be a list of our trading rules:

If you trade you will need a system - just to trade will lead always to losses
Always wait for the right trading SETUP, which provides you lower risk and higher profit ratio
Use Stops, even if you don't use them put a stop. You never know what will happen (e.g. 9/11)
Understand the risk of loss and accept losses, if you see that your trade is going into the wrong direction
If the market moves against you, NEVER NEVER NEVER increase your position
If you trade, you should have no emotions and no hope - just your system

Profile Trading Rules

More then anything markets are dynamic and can change direction, sentiment, (account size) in short order.
Market profile is a tool and only demonstrates/shows certain levels of interest where market may stall (balance) or trend (imbalance). Many months are needed to study, observe and learn it, then more months are needed to gain experience, in fact, it is a never ending process.
Simple relationships between buyer/seller (or supply/demand) always prevail. Although these processes can be reflexive, i.e. where there is a supply, there will be a demand.
As a rule, i do not use any price derived indicators.

Favourite Links & Blogs

2009-11-17T01:51:00.002+01:00

Here are the links to Blogs & Sites we would like to share with you:

Blogs

About

2009-11-17T01:44:00.002+01:00

Hi all readers !!!

I am Dr. Livesey and I am trader. Me and Mr. 'Day Trader' would like to share our analysis of /ES, SPX and other financial indexes with you guys.

Later more