Eric De Groot

In the #News #Economy #Politics - Wisconsin Primary, A Warning That Elections Are Not Free

2026-08-13T09:21:32.706-05:00

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.”

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

― Mark Twain

Subscriber Comments

Wisconsin Primary, A Warning That Elections Are Not Free

On Tuesday, Wisconsin voters went to the polls in an extraordinary primary for governor. On the Democratic side, the leading candidates – David Crowley and Francesca Hong – were separated by about 4,000 votes. Meanwhile, 165,000 votes went to other candidates – including 68,000 votes for candidates who were no longer in the race.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

2026 Insight Access and Report Codes

2026-08-13T09:01:49.408-05:00

The Matrix

Purchase Access (A) and/or Report (R) codes starting at $220. Buy one or more codes, get one FREE. All codes expire December 31st, 2026.

Active Reports (Click to View Reports Page): #Dollar #Soybeans #Economy #Stocks #Corn #Gold #Silver #Wheat #Commodities #Energy #Bitcoin #Ethereum #LiveCattle #Hogs #NaturalGas #Bonds #Housing #Palladium #Platinum #Uranium.

The Access Code downloads the PREV Matrix and unlocks all review content not located in the report page. Review content is also important to understanding the invisible hand.

The 2026 code count will begin at 15 (Access Code + 14 Reports). The number will increase or decrease based on computer direction. Real opportunities typically emerge in overlooked markets.

Full subscribers will receive the Access Code and 14 report codes (see Active Report link below), updates to the code list throughout 2026, priority email notifications of critical updates, and the option to join an encrypted X discussion group with submission of their X handle. Full subscribers must be following Insights @supreed and upgrade their chat for encryption by adding a password to join the discussion group.

We can create a custom invoice to facilitate your code purchase and payment. Please contact us for help.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Corn Report $CORN #ZC_F

2026-08-13T09:00:00.000-05:00

Corn Report

The Corn Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for corn.

Corn's primary trend has been on a downward trajectory since March 2023. While some view this decline as part of a larger conspiracy, others interpret it through the lens of their personal beliefs.

The often-quoted phrase, “the fundamentals do not matter in the end,” originates from insights gained through the PREV Matrix. The invisible hand, representing the collective consciousness of all market participants, factors in outcomes and events beyond today's discussion and headlines. The minority must withstand the barrage of mainstream opinions, eventually witnessing the majority capitulate when bad assumptions are corrected by market prices.

The 08/13/26 Report - Corn Moves With Major Grain Markets update has been published.

Important Updates

08/06/26 Report - Same Old Same Old
08/02/26 Report - Understanding Cause Building
06/09/26 Report - Bulls Looking For A Better Setup
05/31/26 Report - Watching Smart Money
05/18/26 Report - Pay Attention To Subtle Hints
05/02/26 Report - Now What?
04/19/26 Report - Change In April, But How Good?
03/19/26 Report - Seasonal Strength
03/02/26 Report - Great Rotation or Sales Pitch?
02/16/26 Report - Understanding the Seasonal Rally
02/03/26 Report - Bottoms Come At Extremes
01/17/26 Report - Retail Traders Carried Out On Stretchers
01/15/26 Report - Finding A Bottom
01/06/26 Report - Bulls Waiting For A High Probability Setup
01/10/26 Report - Trends Are More Than Energy (DI)

Please watch the full update on the Report Page.

Corn Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

Matrix Updated #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #Bitcoin

2026-08-13T07:19:01.156-05:00

The Matrix

The Matrix, an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize the Evolution of the Trade for 44 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix. The Matrix updates daily.

A Limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix. It's updated periodically.

Subscriber Comments

Keep Surfing The Primary Trends!

Matrix Updated

Active Reports (Click to View Reports Page): #Dollar #Soybeans #Economy #Stocks #Corn #Gold #Silver #Wheat #Commodities #Energy #Bitcoin #Ethereum #LiveCattle #Hogs #NaturalGas #Bonds #Housing #Palladium #Platinum #Uranium. The Access Code downloads the Matrix unlocks all content but reports.

Please contact us for more information.

Understanding Decoupling

Learning to Use the Composite Trend Sort

Learning to Use the Matrix to Manage Positions

$AAPL $AMZN $ATR $ARKK $BABA $CAT $CF $DB $EBAY $FB $GE $GOOG $NFLX $NVDA $PAAS $TSLA $UUUU

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

In the #News #Economy #Politics - The Strait of Hormuz Is Total Disaster

2026-08-12T10:45:59.540-05:00

News

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.”

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

― Mark Twain

Subscriber Comments

The Strait of Hormuz Is Total Disaster

The Strait of Hormuz saw its traffic drop from about 11 vessels a day to six over the weekend, as reopening talks between the United States and Iran drag on.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Commodities & #Energy Report #OIL $USO $UGA #CRB #OOTT

2026-08-12T10:41:30.158-05:00

C&E Report

The Commodities & Energy (C&E) Report, a series of videos, discusses cycles of price, time, and energy for commodities, oil, and oil related products.

“There is nothing to fear but fear itself”, Franklin D. Roosevelt, March 4, 1933.

While weather-related concerns have sparked a short-term rally in foodstuffs and commodities, they should not override investment discipline guided by the invisible hand. For a sustainable rally in commodities (grains, foodstuffs, and raw industrials), it is essential to have stable economic growth, a surge in silver, and strong performance in fertilizer stocks. We delve into these factors and provide crucial insights into cycles and trends to help manage our emotions and stay rational.

The 08/12/26 Report - Oil & Gas, Ouch update has been published.

Important Updates

07/29/26 Report - Give Me A Little More Time
07/17/26 Report - Time To Pray For Smarter Leaders
07/15/26 Report - Reset
07/11/26 Report - Warning From Oil
07/03/26 Report - Oil Through July
06/28/26 Report - Economy & War
06/16/26 Report - Middle East Peace Won't Be Easy
06/07/26 Report - Iran War Drives Oil & More
05/24/26 Report - I Did That
05/13/26 Report - Fertilizers, Hello Again
05/07/26 Report - Oil, Middle East, and Illusion of Victory
04/30/26 Report - Oil and Oil Stocks
04/22/26 Report - Trump Does Not Control This
04/18/26 Report - Oil Is A Dangerous Market
03/27/26 Report - Political Biases Creates Losses
03/17/26 Report - Short War Narrative
03/12/26 Report -Invisible Hand Views Little Excursion As Significant Proxy War
03/08/26 Report - Middle East War
02/28/26 Report - Rotation Into Commodities Confirmed?
02/02/26 Report - Oil
01/28/26 Report - Here Comes The Boom In Copper?
01/24/26 Report - Total Shit Show Is Coming
01/15/26 Report - Oil or Oil Exploration Companies
01/09/26 Report - Ego Driven Stupidity Is Real & Dangerous
01/03/26 Report - Invisible Hand Focused On Oil

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

Commodities & Energy Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

US #Bond Report #Treasuries $TLT $IEF

2026-08-11T11:26:38.481-05:00

US Bond Report

The US Bond Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, intermarket flows for bonds, economy and more. The bond market, the conduit that funds the empire, influences capital flows, all assets tracked in the Matrix, and will be a focal point of all financial and economic discussions until the end of the decade.

The majority's ability to time markets is best illustrated by the expectations of profit followed by an unexpected anvil to the head. This outcome has and will be repeated as long as free markets exist. The minority survives by following the invisible hand.

The 08/11/26 Report - Majority Convinced Fed Will Not Hike update has been posted.

Important Updates:

08/10/26 Report - Redefining Safe Havens
07/23/26 Report - Breaking the Ice Ahead Of The Crisis
07/15/26 Report - Inflation Is NOT Dead
07/08/26 Report - Invisible Hand Sees Through The Propaganda
06/15/26 Report - Things Not Said At June Fed Meeting
06/11/26 Report - Debt Takes Down Empires
06/04/26 Report - Decision Time
05/22/26 Report - World Knows The US Bond Market Cannot Be Managed
05/18/26 Report - The Crisis Is Here
04/24/26 Report - The Fed Is Too Loose
03/28/26 Report - Crisis Ahead/Unfolding
03/21/26 Report - Walking On A Thin Line
03/09/26 Report - Don't Fight The Cycle
03/01/26 Report - Invisible Hand Not Fooled By Misdirection
02/13/26 Report - Ignore the CPI Report
02/02/26 Report - Inflation
01/26/26 Report - The Fed vs. Invisible Hand
01/02/26 Report - Expect Significant Change In 2026
01/14/26 Report - Bull Trap Continues

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

US Bond Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Gold & #Silver Report $GLD #GC_F $SLV #SI_F

2026-08-11T08:48:09.810-05:00

Gold & Silver Report

The Gold & Silver Report, a series of videos, delves into trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for silver.

Gold prices have surged recently, climbing past the $3,010 per ounce mark. The majority, a group caught in the "seeing is believing" mindset, struggle to grasp the driving forces behind this rally. Today’s surge—long discussed in the Gold & Silver Report even before it caught the attention of pundits like Jim Cramer—is stretching the rubber band of numerous cycles. So, the question remains: what’s our next move?

The Evolution of the Trade (EOT) keeps us calm and collected, particularly when Odd Job throws his hat at the invisible hand.

The 08/11/26 Report - Surfing Requires Patience update has been published.

Important Updates

07/20/26 Report - The Hand Says Don't Force It
06/29/26 Report - Clearing Out The Suckers
06/03/26 Report - Misery
05/12/26 Report - Objective Conservation About Silver
05/03/26 Report - Waiting For The Right Setup In Silver
04/29/26 Report - Liquidity Crisis in Persian Gulf
03/18/26 Report - Talking About Surfing & Surfing Are Not The Same
03/03/26 Report - War Introduces Confusion
02/25/26 Report - Hidden Order in Silver
02/12/26 Report - Pan American Silver $PAAS
02/09/26 Report - Invisible Hand Doesn't Care What We Think
01/31/26 Report - Focus On The Invisible Hand, Not Drama
01/25/26 Report - Where Is Silver's Kryptonite
01/18/26 Report - Silver's Trend Is A Warning
01/10/26 Report - History Will Remember This Trend
01/02/26 Report - Silver Sees The Polar Vortex Coming

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

Gold & Silver Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#NaturalGas Report $UNG #NG_F

2026-08-10T10:02:22.822-05:00

Natural Gas Report

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Natural gas's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The Natural Gas Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for natural gas.

Trading natural gas can be quite volatile and challenging for investors. Our computer system helps identify when it's best to observe the market and when its time to actively engage.

The 08/10/26 Report - August & September update has been published.

Important Updates

08/02/26 Report - Bulls Out To Pasture
07/10/26 Report - Bulls Are Following A False Narrative
07/06/26 Report - Bulls Still Selling A Narrative
05/30/26 Report - Natural Gas Is Misery For The Undisciplined
04/27/26 Report - Bears Control Trend
03/24/26 Report - Strict Discipline Creates Patience
02/23/26 Report - The Backdrop Is Slowly Changing
02/10/26 Report - Bulls Without A Leg To Stand On
01/29/26 Report - Apathy
01/22/26 Report - Unexpected
01/21/26 Report - Arm Waving Is Not Discipline
01/04/26 Report - See Only What Is

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

Natural Gas Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Report #GDP #Investing

2026-08-08T09:21:58.532-05:00

E&S Report

Much of today's economic data is unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments as far back as the 1980s. The public accepts mainstream economic narratives, and assumes that politicians and central bankers control them. Administrations as far back as the 1980s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experience teaches that data can be manipulated. Statistical techniques that shape short-term trends support public policy.

Subscriber Comments

The Economy & Stock (E&S) Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for the economy, stocks, and more.

The majority's attempt to time stocks (or any market) is akin to Little Mac enduring a barrage of uppercuts in Mike Tyson's Punch-Out. For those who don't grasp the game, the outcome is often unfavorable. This game, known as interpreting the invisible hand—the collective consciousness of the world—defines the minority. By evading the perfect storm, the minority survives, while the majority ends up holding the bag.

Most people see what they believe. We try to teach rather than play political games. The invisible hand does not care about politics or beliefs.

The 08/08/26 Report - Extremely Weak Labor Market Won't Save Stocks update has been published.

Important Reports:

08/05/26 Report - The Stock Train Keeps A Rollin'
08/04/26 Report - Nasty Stagflationary Backdrop Continues
07/30/26 Report - Welcome To The Party, Pal
07/27/26 Report - Risks Are Rising
07/19/26 Short - Interesting Observations This Weekend
07/12/26 Short - The Hated Bull Market
07/02/26 Report - The Rules Of Profit About To Change
06/26/26 Report - It's Time To Pay Attention
06/18/26 Report - New Fed Chair, Same Old Problem
06/05/26 Report - Spoon Feeding Economic Expectations
05/28/26 Report - Economic Backdrop Extremely Fragile
05/26/26 Report - 2026 Could Trigger A Contagion
05/19/26 Report - Hello Again Bear %
05/10/26 Report - Labor Market Distortion
05/04/26 Report - Don't Assume Anything
04/26/26 Report - Stocks, Bonds, Liquidity, and Crisis
04/21/26 Report - Choose Surfing Over Trading
03/29/26 Report - Weakening Consumer
03/25/26 Report - Critical Period For Stocks
03/23/26 Report - Powell Recognizes Labor Market Dislocation
03/20/26 Report - Bullish Decoupling
03/16/26 Report - It's All About the Economy, Stupid
03/14/26 Report - Stock Correction Expanding
03/04/26 Report - Timing A Correction/Crash Model
02/19/26 Report - Economic Transition Ahead, Deterioration Seen Today
02/11/26 Report - Horrific Labor Report
02/11/26 Report - Politics Spin Negatives Into Positives
02/08/26 Report - Economic Activity Composite (EAC) Nearing A Transition
02/05/26 Report - Questioning Risk-On
01/27/26 Report - Stocks, Economy, and Risks
01/16/26 Report - Decoupling Across The Board
01/13/26 Report - Defining The Stock Market Rally
01/09/26 Report - Developing Train Wreck Called 2026
01/07/26 Report - Cause Building In January?
01/05/26 Report - People See What They Believe In Stocks

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

E&S Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

Diffusion Index Updated

2026-08-07T15:00:54.523-05:00

Diffusion Index

The PREV (the Matrix), an array that displays alignment of price & volume (trends) within the cycle of TIME, intermarket money flows, and the flow of sentiment, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities for 45 markets. Markets include #stocks, #bonds, #forex, #Bitcoin & #Commodities.

Full subscription provides full access to the Matrix and reviews. Matrix updated daily.

A limited or Free Subscription provides full access to an evaluation Matrix. The Evaluation Matrix is updated periodically.

The Matrix

Charts will be updated with the full Matrix download on Saturday.

Please download and look for green and red bolded DI numbers.

Active Reports (Click to View Reports Page): #Dollar #Soybeans #Economy #Stocks #Corn #Gold #Silver #Wheat #Commodities #Energy #Bitcoin #Ethereum #LiveCattle #Hogs #NaturalGas #Bonds #Housing #Palladium #Platinum #Uranium.

The Access Code downloads the PREV Matrix and unlocks all review content not located in the report page. Review content is also important to understanding the invisible hand.

* Diffusion indices are updated from 3:30 to 3:45 EST, United States, according to the Release Schedule.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Uranimum Report $URA

2026-08-07T10:59:43.061-05:00

Natural Gas Report

In the #News #Economy #Politics - Remember Make America Healthy Again?

2026-08-07T07:00:00.000-05:00

News

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.”

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

― Mark Twain

Subscriber Comments

Remember Make America Healthy Again?

The US Environmental Protection Agency finalized approval of four new pesticide active ingredients—fluoxapiprolin, trifludimoxazin, diflufenican, and epyrifenacil—and expanded approved uses for two existing pesticide chemicals, chlormequat and bifenthrin, all in the past month.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Palladium & #Platinum Report $PALL $PPLT

2026-08-04T12:41:43.367-05:00

Pd & Pt Report

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Palladium & Platinum's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Palladium and platinum are rare, silvery-white precious metals belonging to the platinum group of metals (PGMs). Both are highly valued for their resistance to corrosion, catalytic properties, and industrial uses.

Palladium (Pd) is lighter and more reactive than platinum. It is mainly used in catalytic converters for gasoline engines, electronics, dentistry, and hydrogen purification. Its price can be volatile due to supply constraints and high industrial demand.

Platinum (Pt) is denser and more stable at high temperatures. It's commonly used in catalytic converters for diesel engines, jewelry, chemical production, and medical equipment. It has historically been more expensive than palladium, but prices have fluctuated in recent years.

Both metals are mined primarily in Russian and South Africa and are critical to clean energy and automotive industries.

The 08/04/26 Report - Slow Everything Down update has been posted.

Important Updates

06/30/26 Report - Fireworks Are Coming
06/08/26 Report - Energy
06/01/26 Report - Heads Turn Toward Palladium
05/23/26 Report - Impressive
05/08/26 Report - Quiet Warning
05/01/26 Report - The Reasons Come Later
04/20/26 Report - Palladium Is Quiet & Still Interesting
02/27/26 Report - Are You Listening?
02/25/26 Report - Listen To The Evolution of The Trade
02/15/26 Report - Following Ebb & Flow Within The Primary Trend
02/03/26 Report - Selling Fear
01/23/26 Report - Palladium Playing Pac-Man
01/21/26 Report - Quietly Impressive
01/11/26 Report - Why Is Platinum Soaring?

Please watch the full update on the Report Page.

Palladium & Platinum Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Economy & #Stocks Review - The Propaganda Cycle & Stocks

2026-08-04T11:58:59.930-05:00

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

The Propaganda Cycle & Stocks

What could easily be viewed as another round of bullish economic propaganda (before they threaten to bomb Iran to the Stone Age on Fridays) has sent stocks soaring. The real question is: when does the rally end? Probably when the majority least expects it.

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Our Timing A Correction/Crash Model displays an 80% bearish reading (see TAC Model below). It has been stuck on 80% for several trading days. This places increasing doubt towards the durability of the stock rally. Readings of 90%, 100%, or possibly 110% should all be seen "warnings" that increase odds of near term correction. The Evolution of the Trade (EOT) does not allow us to short a primary uptrend, so the play would be retreat to the sidelines, and let the gunslingers take over.

Future instability would likely come from additional decouplings in the composite trend. Subscribers and followers should focus on the Economy & Stocks Report updates in August.

TAC Model

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Dollar Index Report $UUP $UDX

2026-08-03T09:00:00.000-05:00

US Dollar Report

The US Dollar Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for the US Dollar (Euro & more).

The U.S. Dollar is currently the most influential force in the economic landscape. Despite its significant impact, its rise has been relatively quiet. Meanwhile, mainstream media has been shortsighted in overlooking the drastic declines of the Euro, Canadian Dollar, and Yen and other periphery currencies. Consequently, the majority, placing their trust in central banks and the Federal Reserve, remain oblivious and unprepared for the unintended consequences this year.

The global economy and financial markets are highly interconnected. Every subscriber should monitor the dollar's dominant trend. Those deeply entrenched in rigid economic, social, and political beliefs and resistant to adapting will face challenging times ahead. We are here to help you understand these shifts and navigate your course accordingly.

The 08/03/26 Report - Yen Intervention update has been posted.

Important Updates

07/28/26 Report - Coils Dropping Like Flies Trapped In A Hot Car
07/25/26 Report - The Important And Forgotten Dollar Rally
07/02/26 Report - Get Ready For The Shit Show Was Not A Joke
06/24/26 Report - The First Domino Might Be The Yen
06/23/26 Report - Chewing Through Reversals
06/11/26 Report - Slow & Steady Into Crash & Burn
05/15/26 Report - Dollar Rally Creates Crash & Burn
04/30/26 Report - Yen Intervention Buys A Litte Time
03/13/26 Report - The Slow and Steady Pain Trade
02/14/26 Report - Smart Money Focused
02/07/26 Report - Powerful & Nobody Cares
01/30/26 Report - Computer Tracks Reality While Headlines Sell Fiction
01/16/26 Report - US Dollar Top of Watch List
01/08/26 Report - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

US Dollar Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Tesla Review $TSLA

2026-08-01T09:13:16.125-05:00

Tesla Review

Trading noise, the random movement of price over the short term, does not control trends, cycles, and profits. The majority, an emotionally driven group focused solely on price, often interprets it as meaningful information. This leads to confusion, frustration, missed opportunities, and leaves the majority as the bag holders of trend transitions. The Evolution of the Trade helps investors stand separate from the majority.

Tesla's trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Fallen Leaders

Please watch the Tesla Review 08/01/26 Fallen Leaders.

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Tesla Review Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

#Bitcoin Report $GBTC $BTC

2026-07-31T18:14:38.653-05:00

Bitcoin Report

Trading noise, the random movement of price over the short term, does not control trends, cycles, and profits. The majority, an emotionally driven group focused solely on price, often interprets it as meaningful information. This leads to confusion, frustration, missed opportunities, and leaves the majority as the bag holders of trend transitions. The Evolution of the Trade helps investors stand separate from the majority.

Bitcoin's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The Bitcoin Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto.

Bitcoin, a highly volatile asset, is a favored asset among high-risk traders that we describe as gunslingers. Volatility creates frequent opportunities for large, rapid price moves. Its market is less regulated, allowing for sharp price movements driven by sentiment, news, and liquidity imbalances. Bitcoin also trades 24/7, giving active traders constant access to price action. Additionally, its relatively low correlation with traditional assets and the presence of leverage-friendly crypto exchanges make it attractive to traders seeking high reward potential, despite the equally high risk of significant losses.

We talk about timing, geopolitical risk, and more in the Bitcoin Report. Bitcoin is often the canary in the coal mine for risk that influences all markets tracked in the Matrix.

The 07/31/26 Report - The Majority Can't See It update has been posted.

Important Updates

07/26/26 Report - Ethereum Speaking To Us
07/13/26 Report - Leading Other Trends
07/05/26 Report - Leading The Pain Trade
06/22/26 Report - The Maestro & Bitcoin
06/14/26 Report - EOT & Timing
06/11/26 Report - Capital Controls Triggered
06/05/26 Report - Into The Reversals We Go
06/02/26 Report - Bitcoin Creeping Toward The Edge
05/20/26 Report - Impressive
05/16/26 Report - Bulls Still Not Listening
05/14/26 Report - Talking Ethereum
05/08/26 Report - Into The Reversal Zone
04/25/26 Report - Statistically Significant
04/22/26 Report - Distribution Into A Critical Zone
03/25/26 Report - Troubling Consolidation
03/15/26 Report - Digital Safe Haven Fairy Tale
03/01/26 Report - Importance of the EOT in Bitcoin
02/22/26 Report - Bulls Better Listen
02/14/26 Report - Ethereum Doesn't Look Good
02/08/26 Report - Bitcoin's Trend Is Important To All
02/06/26 Report - Bitcoin Is A Speculative Asset, Not Money
02/04/26 Report - The Slide
02/01/26 Report - Invisible Hand Warned Us A Month Ago
01/24/26 Report - Bulls Are Not Listening
01/07/26 Report - Timing of Digital Euro

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

Bitcoin Report Preview

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

US #TreasuryBond Review $TLT $IEF - The Soft Inflation Narrative, Bonds, and Dollar

2026-07-30T09:49:55.251-05:00

US Bonds Review

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The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation—declined 0.1% from May, lowering the annual inflation rate to 3.7% from 4.1%. Markets initially interpreted the report as dovish, sending the U.S. dollar down roughly 1% as investors increased expectations for easier monetary policy.

Our inflation LTCO, a real-time measure of future inflation, tells a different story. Rather than relying on backward-looking inflation data, it rose to 43%, its highest reading in months (see Chart 1). While still below the 50% threshold that signals exceptionally strong inflationary pressure, the increase points to a reacceleration in future inflation. In other words, while headline PCE data suggests inflation is easing, our forward-looking model indicates underlying inflationary pressures are beginning to build again.

Chart 1: Inflation LTCO

This is all taking place after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed growing divisions within the central bank. Three policymakers favored a quarter-point rate increase, signaling that the internal debate has shifted from whether inflation is under control to when additional tightening may become necessary. Chairman Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target, emphasizing that restoring lower inflation does not reverse the higher prices consumers have already absorbed over the past several years. This was discussed in detail in the latest Economy & Stock Report update, 07/30/26 Report - Welcome To The Party, Pal.

Many of today's inflationary pressures stem from supply-side factors, including higher energy costs, geopolitical conflicts, infrastructure constraints, and rising demand driven by AI investment—that cannot be resolved through higher interest rates alone (see Chart 2). While the Fed can influence borrowing costs and demand, it cannot increase energy production, repair disrupted supply chains, or reduce government deficits. As a result, the author contends that relying primarily on interest rate policy overestimates the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation.

Chart 2: Inflation Drivers

Although the Fed described the economy as continuing to expand at a solid pace, inflation remains above target, and financial markets increasingly expect another rate hike if price pressures persist. The Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet, continued Treasury purchases, and the difficult position policymakers face between containing inflation and limiting the government's growing debt-servicing costs remains a persistent concern (see Chart 3). President Trump's calls for lower interest rates are presented as conflicting with broader market realities, as long-term interest rates ultimately depend on investor confidence, inflation expectations, and the supply of government debt.

Chart 3: Money & Credit, Fed Balance Sheet

The Federal Reserve remains trapped between persistent inflation and mounting fiscal pressures. While preserving its credibility requires maintaining its commitment to the inflation target, monetary policy alone cannot resolve problems rooted in excessive government spending, geopolitical instability, and ongoing supply constraints. If inflation remains elevated while economic growth continues to weaken, the Fed risks confronting a period of stagflation—a combination of slowing economic activity and stubborn inflation that leaves policymakers with few effective options (see Chart 4).

Our proprietary indicators reinforce that concern. The EAC's ITCO, our short-term measure of economic activity, is hovering near zero and deteriorating rapidly, while the LTCO, the longer-term trend, has begun to roll over. Together, these signals point to a slowing economy even as inflationary pressures remain firm. The result is a sharp increase in stagflationary risks. By leaving interest rates unchanged, the Federal Reserve has postponed rather than resolved the underlying economic imbalances.

Chart 4: Economic Backdrop

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#Dollar Review $UUP $UDX - Japan Could Be The First Domino In The Contagion

2026-07-30T06:23:13.549-05:00

US Dollar Review

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#Dollar Review $UUP $UDX - H-1B Visa Program Different From Public Image

2026-07-30T06:23:04.215-05:00

US Dollar Review

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In the #News #Economy #Politics - Musk Says AI and Robots Will Do Everything

2026-07-26T07:11:36.881-05:00

News

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.”

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

― Mark Twain

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Musk Says AI and Robots Will Do Everything

The biggest workplace debate of the next decade might not be about asking for a raise. It could be figuring out what to do when the robots have already finished the job.

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#Wheat Report $WEAT #ZW_F

2026-07-24T15:57:25.715-05:00

Wheat Report

The Wheat Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for wheat.

Thriving in this business means leaving your ego at the door. It's often said that fundamentals never matter in the end. Most people approach the current cycle as if it's a repeat of the last one.

Today's cycle, however, is never identical to the previous one. Minute shifts in long- and short-term commodity, economic, confidence, price, time, and energy cycles lead to unforeseen outcomes. Old fundamentals become irrelevant. By the time the majority grasps the new fundamentals, the trends have already shifted.

We've all felt like Matt Foley at some point, courtesy of the invisible hand. We utilize the Matrix and The Evolution of the Trade while disregarding motivational speakers selling their opinions. One of the most iconic SNL skits ever.

The 07/24/26 Report - Oil Showed First, Wheat Next update has been published.

Important Updates:

07/22/26 Report - Bringing On The Heartbreak
07/07/26 Report - Fear Overwhelms Discipline For Most
06/11/26 Report - Trend Influenced By War
05/17/26 Report - Bulls Looking For Accumulation
05/11/26 Report - Wheat Is A Critical Market To Track For All
04/28/26 Report - The Rules Changed on 04/01/26
03/11/26 Report - The Right Setup Takes Time
02/28/26 Report - Misdirection Is Everywhere
02/27/26 Report - Bottoms Take Time
02/13/26 Report - Someone Always Knows
01/22/26 Report - Pay Attention To Wheat
01/12/26 Report - Ready For Change

Please watch the full update on the Reports Page.

Wheat Report Preview

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#LiveCattle #LE_F #LeanHogs #HE_F Report

2026-07-24T08:45:18.178-05:00

Live Cattle Hogs Report

The Live Cattle & Hogs Report, a series of videos, discusses trends, cycles, and intermarket flows for Live Cattle and Lean Hogs.

Objectivity is not a buzzword restricted to academia or corporate America. True objectivity is a high-level skill that requires experience and the right set of tools that follows the invisible hand. We use the Matrix, so we don't become the Fool.

The 07/24/26 Report - Trends Do Not Come Without Warnings update has been published.

Important Updates

06/25/26 Report - Trend Is Slowly Destabilizing
06/10/26 Report - Interesting
06/06/26 Report - What In The Hog Is Going On?
04/28/26 Report - Lean Hogs Looking To Join The Party 02/09/26 Report - Get Ready For Change in 2026
01/19/26 Report - When It's Over

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Live Cattle & Hogs Report Preview

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In the #News #Economy #Politics - Wall Street Cheers, While Main Street Suffers

2026-07-23T11:23:06.563-05:00

News

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.”

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

― Mark Twain

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Wall Street Cheers, While Main Street Suffers

NEW: US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 1969. Social media users are presented with propaganda 24/7.

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📰 NEW: US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 1969 pic.twitter.com/5WnsSXZsPV
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 23, 2026

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.