Advanced GET Trading Blog

An Update on FDX

2012-03-16T07:18:37-07:00

We've been chatting about the Type I Buy Opportunity on FDX in our mentoring classes for the last week and a half and I wanted to do a quick update on the trade.

As we discussed in mentoring I went ahead with the trade and purchased the 90.00 APR Calls when we broke the trend line pictured back March 8. Our first profit target based on the Ellipse gave us an original level of 93.74.

Due to a few real life interruptions I didn't get a chance to put in a contingent order to take profits on some of my contracts at that price like I normally would have. The Ellipse was hit on March 14th and at this point you should be prepared to take a few shares or contracts off and adjust your stop to the entry. I got a bit lucky on this position and was able to exit some of my position on the run up yesterday. To further manage the money I typically place an order to exit the trade at my original entry price which in this case was 3.85 (Options Price).

My next two profit targets are 97.00 which is right below the Wave 3 high and the MOB at 101.00. I'll continue to update the trade in our mentoring program and in the blog.

S&P 500 Update using Elliott Wave Analysis

2012-03-09T13:09:05-08:00

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GGP-LON (Daily)

2012-03-04T20:31:29-08:00

~Graeme Ballard

PFE Daily Chart Update

2012-02-27T13:48:33-08:00

For Optimal Viewing choose "Full Screen" mode.

Trade Smart.....

Duane Gott

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GMXR, XTL Breakout

2012-02-22T09:34:54-08:00

Ron Wheeler

eSignal Learning

New York Traders Expo 2012

2012-02-18T13:01:25-08:00

eSignal will be at the New York Traders Expo 2012 located at the Marriott Marquis Hotel, Feb 19th - Feb 22nd.

We encourage and invite any existing or prospective eSignal and Advanced GET clients to swing by and meet the team. Craig Russell from eSignal Learning will have some speaking engagements during the show so check the schedule to make time for those sessions.

Trade Smart.....

Duane Gott

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S&P 500 Video Update Feb. 13, 2012

2012-02-13T10:30:17-08:00

(Double-click the video window to display in full screen)

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S&P 500 Video Update. 12/14/2011

2011-12-14T09:57:40-08:00

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S&P 500 Video Update December 9th, 2011

2011-12-09T10:45:37-08:00

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S&P 500 Video Update

2011-12-06T12:32:41-08:00

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A Look at the S&P 500

2011-11-17T12:22:10-08:00

Over the past several weeks the S&P 500 has been in a consolidation phase. This market has been slowly tightening between the downtrending resistance line and the uptrending support line illustrated in the chart below. Today, we are beginning to see that uptrending support line fail and the price action beginning to move into some lower retracements. While the setup is clearly not a Type 1 Trade due to the fact that the Wave 4 Channels and PTI have gone beyond the reasonable thresholds, we should now be looking for some evidence of support to kick in around the areas I’ve illustrated.

While the price action is clearly labeled a Wave Three, we need to be aware of the possibility of a change in the wave count. If we begin to move significantly lower, it would not be unreasonable to see the price action be labeled a Wave 2 as long as it doesn't exceed the extreme low of the current Wave 5.

Here are some general statistics regarding the nature of Wave 2’s.

Approximately only 12% of Wave 2’s hold the 38% retracement of Wave 1.

Approximately 73% of Wave 2’s retrace between 50% to 60% of Wave 1.

Approximately 15% of Wave 2’s retrace below 62% of Wave 1.

A large part of being a successful trader or investor comes down to one's ability to construct multiple models of what to anticipate. Over the next few sessions, we will begin to gain some clarity about the overall market's intentions.

Trade Smart

~Duane Gott

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S&P 500 Type II

2011-10-31T10:35:01-07:00

For those who attended the Member Event on 10/10, you'll remember that the Type II Buy on $SPX that has been a point of interest for a few weeks now.

As it currently stands, the price action has rallied into the MOB from the previous Wave 4 high. Now, with that resistance comes the possibility of a pullback. The pullback can test a variety of areas which I've illustrated with the red arrows. In the event the trend continues higher, keep redrawing the retracement to get a new set of the levels to focus on.

For those who missed the Members Event, it can be viewed here.....October 2011 Market Review

Trade Smart.....

~Duane Gott

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INFA, Weekly Type One Buy with Options

2011-08-17T06:38:13-07:00

As we discussed in the Monday Options class I am posting up the chart for INFA. I have not yet triggered this trade as on Tuesday we had a decline with the overall market and I prefer to buy on an up day.
The options strategy I decided to use on this is to simply buy calls, I have decided against the spread as I couldn't find a good pairing to give me a reward risk worth taking. My current plan is to place a contingent order to buy the Dec 50.00 Calls when INFA reaches 50.50. This would represent a move slightly higher than the current weekly bar high and provides a little more confidence that the trade is moving in my direction.

I also added some Gann Levels to the chart which helps me make profit taking decisions. While the ultimate goal is for this to reach the MOB I need to plan for the fact that it may not. I have a 2X1 Gann Level at the Blue Line and a 4X1 at the Green, if the market reaches these levels I will sell a some of my contracts off at those levels.

I'll keep you updated as the trade continues.

Ron Wheeler

DBA - Powershares Agricultural Fund: Type I Trade

2011-07-27T12:06:55-07:00

Whether or not I have outstanding positions, I'm always looking to identify new setups and opportunities. One such opportunity came up during my research that merited a closer look. This weekly chart of DBA is the Powershares Fund for Agricultural products. Since ETf's began taking a larger role in the equity markets, many traders who didn't feel comfortable trading straight commodity futures now have a place to go without excess leverage or exposure.

This Type I Buy is lacking in a good Regression Trend Channel, however, with a displaced moving average, the proposed entry price still offers good reward to risk. I'll be keeping an eye on this over the upcoming weeks for a potential trade setup.

Trade Smart....

~Duane Gott

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Technical Trading and Fundamental Events

2011-07-26T09:17:58-07:00

I am often asked if I bring any fundamental analysis into my trading. While I consider myself a purely technical trader, the answer is that I use fundamental analysis to provide a catalyst to my technically based ideas. The weekly chart of 3M (MMM) is a good example of this approach.

Many of you may remember the weekly chart of MMM that I posted back in March. This Type II Trade showed all the classic signs of a Wave 5 high coupled with a divergent oscillator. Based on the technicals, I prepared to short MMM via some out of the money puts. With all the technical elements in place, the next step was looking for some event to get this thing moving. The event came this morning during the conference call when MMM released their quarterly earnings. I don't play earnings by themselves as it usually becomes nothing more than a spin of the roulette wheel, however, with a clear selling strategy in mind, I used the earnings report as the catalyst to get 3M moving my direction.

The answer to this is "yes", I do use fundamentals, but only to serve as a backstop to what I see as a technician. BTW, MMM is down nearly 5% this morning and has bumped the options 15% in the green from where they were trading yesterday afternoon.

Trade Smart...

~Duane Gott

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Trend Reversal, $SPX Daily

2011-06-15T00:24:26-07:00

In our mentoring classes we teach the concept of after a Wave 5 we should see either a major market correction or a complete change in trend. One of the techniques I use to determine which we will see is to use the False Bar Stochastic in conjunction with the Elliott Wave. The reason I like to combine the two is that they complement each other very well, the Elliott Wave shows us the long term count of the chart and the Stochastic is keeping track of the shorter term trend cycles in play.

In the current chart of the $SPX we see the classic Wave 5 that indicates a change in trend is coming. From here I take a look at the False Bar Stochastic and draw a 61.8% retracement from the last swing low to the current market high. This gives us a level of 1295. If the market can hold that retracement and we get a re-rally it is more likely that we are seeing a correction instead of a reversal. Since we have gone below 1295 odds say that this market is heading for a complete change in direction which would give us continued selling to our next MOB at 1220. If we were see a small rally from this stage you must consider it a profit taking rally and a potential Wave 4 with a high probability of new lows.

Ron Wheeler

Type II Sell (MCD)

2011-06-10T13:43:50-07:00

As we close out another rough session, I wanted to post a weekly chart of McDonalds. With the MOB level near $82.50, a higher wave 5 and a clearly divergent GET Oscillator, MCD has fractured the Regression Trend Channel over the last two weeks. Both the aggressive trigger and the conservative trigger have already occurred. Keep an eye on this one....

Trade Smart...

~ Duane Gott

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MMM Weekly Type II

2011-06-08T08:08:23-07:00

During mentoring last night, I pointed out a current setup in the weekly chart of 3M (MMM). There are a few technical pieces worth mentioning here....

1. The Type II Sell is pretty glaring. We've got nice divergence between the most recent Wave 3 and Wave 5.

2. Wave 3 is pretty much spot on to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1.

3. We've confirmed a double top pattern as October 2007 was the last time 3M was at these price levels.

I've used the Intermediate pivot from November 2010 as it gives the best Pearsons R value for a trigger. Regardless of whether you like the Type II Trade or not, this is one for the watchlist.....

Trade Smart...

~ Duane Gott

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Trade Update (June 3, 2011)

2011-06-03T11:21:42-07:00

I just wanted to post a quick update from the GGAL Weekly Stochastic Trade. I stopped out near the $11.60 level to keep the risk small. One of the best exercises in discipline is to continue watching the chart after the stop has been taken. More often than not, by calculating what the loss would have been without stopping out, you are often glad you did.

With the broader market beginning to show signs of cracks, I've taken another short position in SNDK. The weekly chart is illustrating a Type II Trade that is in its early stages. With the consolidation over the last several weeks, I've decided to take the XTL Breakdown Trade on the Daily interval. Both have been posted to illustrate time frame convergence and how the Progression of the Trade methodology can help traders anticipate what comes next.

Trade Smart....

~ Duane Gott

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SNDK Weekly

SNDK Daily

GGAL Weekly Stochastic Trade

2011-05-12T09:40:10-07:00

For those who have been in the mentoring sessions recently, you'll know that this weekly chart of GGAL has been at the top of my watchlist. This stock was brought up to me by a member of the Advanced GET community so I can't take credit for spotting this, but as soon as I saw the chart, I knew it was definately a trading candidate.

The PTI has recently fallen below the acceptable threshold for a Type I, the structure of the Stochastic Trade is still very much intact. Something to keep an eye on.

Trade Smart...

~Duane Gott

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