By Bret Kenwell, TheStreet.com

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock on Wednesday tipped its hand that this name still has potential strength.

In fact, growth stocks in general performed pretty well on Wednesday despite the increased volatility from the FOMC announcement.

AMD powered higher on the day, giving bulls a two-times weekly-up rotation.

Further, FAANG finished higher, with the exception of Apple (AAPL), while Tesla (TSLA), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) all climbed on the day.

AMD's rotation was important because it gave bulls confidence to stick with it despite the volatility.

The company is a top pick for many analysts, as is Nvidia (NVDA).

But Nvidia followed AMD's lead from Wednesday, giving bulls a powerful rotation of its own on Thursday.

Now the question remains, just how far can AMD stock go from here?

Trading AMD Stock

Daily chart of AMD stock

Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com

On Oct. 5, I discussed buying the dip in Nvidia. For both Nvidia and AMD, the stocks ultimately bottomed this month on Oct. 4 and have been enjoying rallies ever since.

For AMD, the stock gave bulls a clean ABC correction back down to the $100 level and the breakout spot from the prior high.

While a mild rally from this level resulted in another pullback – the one that led to the Oct. 4 low – the shares ultimately held support and moved higher.

Until Wednesday though, AMD stock was struggling with the 50-day moving average and the daily VWAP that's measured from the all-time high.

Speaking of that all-time high, notice all the volume that took place amid that push higher in early August. That suggests institutional buying and gives a nod to the bulls when it comes to buying this name on the dip.

In short, that type of institutional buying should lead to support on the dips, which is exactly what we saw.

Yesterday the stock went two-times weekly-up over $108.44, clearing the 50-day and daily VWAP measure in the process.

Now let's see if AMD can get to the B leg high near $114.50. If it does, I'd love to see $108 to $110 act as support, along with the 10-day moving average.

Above $115 opens the door to the $120 to $122 area.

Below the 50-day moving average puts $100 back in play.

From TheStreet.com

A search engine, a shoemaker and an electric vehicle company have all caught one analyst's eye.

Piper Sandler's chief market technician, Craig Johnson, says Alphabet, Crocs and Tesla could all mean big money for investors – his firm has overweight ratings on each.

"These three names, they're showing meaningful upside to the fundamental price objectives," Johnson told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Friday, pointing to Piper Sandler's recent "Alpha Alignment" report that highlighted these stocks among others.

"First if you start with a company such as Alphabet, very nice price trend, great relative outperformance, you read through the fundamentals on it and Tom Champion who follows it for us talks about catalysts being YouTube, catalysts being the conversion to the cloud as a driver," he said.

The firm has a $3,034 price target on Alphabet, implying nearly 9% upside from Friday's close. The stock has already done well so far this year – it is by far the best-performing FAANG stock with a 60% gain.

"Next, if you go through and you start looking at stocks like Tesla … it's likely reversed a downtrend. We're now challenging some highs around $763 and we're setting ourselves up to go back and retest the old high so clearly again a lot of upside," said Johnson.

Piper Sandler's $1,200 price target implies 53% upside. It closed Friday at $785.49 a share.

"Then lastly is Crocs," he said. "Crocs right now is rechecking the lower end of an upper trending channel, putting up decent relative strength. … The chart again looks very constructive and should be bought."

Crocs has already had an impressive run this year, rallying more than 108%. Piper Sandler's $212 price target would mean another 63% increase from Friday's close.

Asked to pick between those three, Simpler Trading's head of options, Danielle Shay, backs Johnson's call on Tesla.

"I'm always a huge fan of Tesla and especially with the numbers that they put out over the course of the past couple of weeks. I mean they've been able to do phenomenally even throughout the chip shortage," Shay said during the same interview.

Tesla said earlier this month that it had delivered 241,300 electric vehicles in the three months to September, above analysts' estimates. The company also announced recently its plans to move its headquarters to Texas from California.

"Once the chip shortage especially starts to get a little bit better, I imagine them doing even better," she said. "We have more people in not only Europe but the U.S. and China also switching to electric vehicles as well. And we haven't even really seen what Tesla can do with Tesla solar yet, so I'm definitely a buyer of Tesla."

Disclosure: Shay holds TSLA.

From CNBC

A closer look at several key index charts, however, subtly suggests there may have been more damage done on Monday than there appears to be on the surface.

Take the S&P 500 as an example. Things looked good early in the day, but by the time the closing bell rang the large cap index was back below its 20-day moving average line (blue) at 4391, having never moved back above its 50-day moving average line (purple). Also notice the S&P 500's Volatility Index (VIX) appears to be pushing up and off of its 50-day moving average line at 18.91 as part of a recent effort to start logging higher lows and higher highs.

Ditto for the NASDAQ Composite's Volatility Index (VXN), although it's arguably closer to breaking above a major technical resistance line (red) at 27.8… a line that extends back to the middle of last year. It's not over it yet, but that prospect is close. It's made closer by the fact that the NASDAQ Composite pulled back below its 100-day moving average line (gray) at 14,589 for the second time in less than two weeks.

Take note of the fact that there's a major convergence of support developing around 14,200 (red, dashed), where the index found support a couple of times since July, and where the 200-day moving average line (green) will be in the near future. If a move under that floor is in the cards, the VXN is apt to break above its technical ceiling near 27.8 around the same time. That's a huge red flag, if it pans out.

Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed some technical problems too. Namely, it once again found resistance at its 50-day moving average line (purple) at 34.898 to ultimately be sent back below its 100-day line (gray) at 34,703. Indeed, the technical ceiling being made by the 50-day line right now has become downright alarming.

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of Monday's action, however, is something seen from all three of the indices discussed above. All three started out logging a solid gain, kicking off the new trading week on a bullish foot after ending last week with a whimper. The bulls had their chance to get the recovery moving in a big way. They couldn't get it done. It's a bigger-picture hint that confidence in stocks here isn't all that strong at all.

It's not an ironclad bearish call. There are still several ways the market could sidestep slipping into so much trouble that at can't work its way out of it, forcing stocks into a more serious correction. But, it's enough technical trouble to take a look, as all of these hurdles now require up-ending or overcoming this week if the stock market is going to truly recover.

We'll dish out an update if and when it matters.

A closer look at several key index charts, however, subtly suggests there may have been more damage done on Monday than there appears to be on the surface.

Take the S&P 500 as an example. Things looked good early in the day, but by the time the closing bell rang the large cap index was back below its 20-day moving average line (blue) at 4391, having never moved back above its 50-day moving average line (purple). Also notice the S&P 500's Volatility Index (VIX) appears to be pushing up and off of its 50-day moving average line at 18.91 as part of a recent effort to start logging higher lows and higher highs.

Ditto for the NASDAQ Composite's Volatility Index (VXN), although it's arguably closer to breaking above a major technical resistance line (red) at 27.8… a line that extends back to the middle of last year. It's not over it yet, but that prospect is close. It's made closer by the fact that the NASDAQ Composite pulled back below its 100-day moving average line (gray) at 14,589 for the second time in less than two weeks.

Take note of the fact that there's a major convergence of support developing around 14,200 (red, dashed), where the index found support a couple of times since July, and where the 200-day moving average line (green) will be in the near future. If a move under that floor is in the cards, the VXN is apt to break above its technical ceiling near 27.8 around the same time. That's a huge red flag, if it pans out.

Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed some technical problems too. Namely, it once again found resistance at its 50-day moving average line (purple) at 34.898 to ultimately be sent back below its 100-day line (gray) at 34,703. Indeed, the technical ceiling being made by the 50-day line right now has become downright alarming.

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of Monday's action, however, is something seen from all three of the indices discussed above. All three started out logging a solid gain, kicking off the new trading week on a bullish foot after ending last week with a whimper. The bulls had their chance to get the recovery moving in a big way. They couldn't get it done. It's a bigger-picture hint that confidence in stocks here isn't all that strong at all.

It's not an ironclad bearish call. There are still several ways the market could sidestep slipping into so much trouble that at can't work its way out of it, forcing stocks into a more serious correction. But, it's enough technical trouble to take a look, as all of these hurdles now require up-ending or overcoming this week if the stock market is going to truly recover.

We'll dish out an update if and when it matters.

We'll do our usual chart-based analysis of last week's lackluster rally, as we always. First though (and also as we also always do), let's look at some of the surprising economic numbers we heard just a few days back. For better or worse, the Fed's FOMC is probably as confused as the average investor is here.

Economic Data Analysis

The second piece of the ISM data for September was as encouraging as the first. Two weeks ago we learned the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index edged upward to one of the best readings we've seen in quite some time. Last week, the services version of the ISM's key indexes also improved, from 61.7 to 61.9. Any reading above 50 is considered positive, and we're still well above that make-or-break line.

ISM Manufacturing and Services Index Charts

Source: Institute of Supply Management, TradeStation

The only other item of interest from last week was a big one… and a disappointing one. Despite a fairly encouraging job growth report from ADP earlier in the week, the Department of Labor came in with a notably different assessment. It says we only added 194,000 new jobs in September, versus expectations of 450,000.

Payroll Growth and Unemployment Rate Charts

Source: Department of Labor, TradeStation

That was still enough to drive the unemployment rate down from 5.2% to 4.8%. Just bear in mind that August's payroll growth figure was revised higher by a fairly significant degree. Still, the overall jobs picture from last month is more negative than positive. Everything else is on the grid.

Economic Calendar

Source: Briefing.com

This week is going to be a big one even if not a busy one, and you can't afford to miss any of the key reports when they're posted. We're going to be getting a slew of data, each piece of which is something the Fed will have to consider as it weighs what to do with interest rates. In fact, although the minutes from the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee are due on Wednesday, they're already going to be obsolete. [Nevertheless, look for changes to the Fed's language from the previous meeting's minutes.]

First and foremost, this is a big week for an updated look at the inflation picture. On Wednesday, look for last month's consumer inflation data, followed by producers' and factories' input cost picture on Thursday. Both are still sky high, but don't look for relief this time around. Economists are modeling the same sort of price increases for September that we saw in August.

Consumer, Producer Inflation Charts

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation

On Friday look for last month's retail spending data. Forecasters are calling for overall growth again, although slower than August's red-hot pace of 1.8%. Factor is car sales, and retail spending should actually fall… mostly due to a lack of inventory.

Retail Sales Charts

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation

Despite plenty of reasons for consumers to keep their purse strings drawn closed, retail spending has actually remained a rather bright spot.

Stock Market Index Analysis

The S&P 500 never broke under the prior week's low around 4287, pushing up and off that support level instead. Similarly, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) didn't even try to break through its recent technical resistance, also peeling back to rather nominal levels. It looks like just-another routine recovery… the kind we've seen with all the other lulls since early last year. Take a quick look at the daily chart.

S&P 500 Daily Chart, with VIX and Volume

Source: TradeNavigator

Don't be too quick to jump to this superficial conclusion, however.

Take a closer, longer look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below. Notice the index did NOT crawl back above the 50-day moving average line (purple), nor did it end the week above the 20-day moving average line (blue) as of Friday's close. Stocks are still on the defensive here, and still within easy reach of major technical support. One or two (or maybe three) bad days could still turn into big-time trouble. And, with Thursday's opening bullish gap still ready to be closed, we're kicking things off this week facing an uphill battle.

The daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite looks pretty similar, if not identical. The index didn't move back above its 20-day or 50-day moving averages, and also remains within easy reach of a couple of key support levels. The VXN is also still very near a key technical ceiling (red) currently at 27.8.

NASDAQ Composite Daily Chart, with VXN

Source: TradeNavigator

Here's the weekly chart of the S&P 500, just for a little added perspective. It doesn't show us anything new, but it does put into context just how much things have changed — for the worse — over the course of the past three weeks. This weekly chart also makes it quite clear just how big of a deal the VIX's falling resistance line is. A move under it could prove to be catastrophic for stocks, but traders are doing everything they can to prevent that from happening.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart, with VIX

Source: TradeNavigator

With all of that being said, it would be time well spent to take a look at a chart we rarely consider… the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index.

We mentioned a few days ago in a commentary posted at the website that while "the market" was seemingly in a selloff, the bulk of that selloff was being dished out by large cap growth stocks. Small cap stocks and value stocks (and small cap value stocks in particular) were actually inching their way higher despite the bearish environment. In fact, it's possible that small can and value names were moving upward specifically because large cap growth names were retreating, with investors looking for more reliable alternatives.

That premise is still a distinct possibility. But, we've not exactly seen small caps as a group kick-start a real rally. They're just as close to a breakdown, in fact, as a breakout. The good news is, it's crystal clear where the Russell 2000's make-or-break lines are. It's trapped within two converging wedge patterns. One of these sets of boundaries is plotted with red lines on the daily chart below, while the other upper and lower boundaries are plotted in blue. The index remains perfectly stuck in the middle of both trading ranges, and as was noted, could just as easily be flung out of these confines in a downward direction as it could be in a bullish direction.

Russell 2000 Daily Chart, with Volume

Source: TradeNavigator

We only point it out so you can add the chart's markings to your list of clues that just might tell us what's really happening with the broad market, and its individual pieces. Just be prepared for the possibility that, like a couple of weeks ago, large caps and small caps may end up moving on opposite directions, with one pullback fueling the other's rally.  

It's all in the straight-line support and resistance, which is clearer now than it typically is.

We'll do our usual chart-based analysis of last week's lackluster rally, as we always. First though (and also as we also always do), let's look at some of the surprising economic numbers we heard just a few days back. For better or worse, the Fed's FOMC is probably as confused as the average investor is here.

Economic Data Analysis

The second piece of the ISM data for September was as encouraging as the first. Two weeks ago we learned the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index edged upward to one of the best readings we've seen in quite some time. Last week, the services version of the ISM's key indexes also improved, from 61.7 to 61.9. Any reading above 50 is considered positive, and we're still well above that make-or-break line.

ISM Manufacturing and Services Index Charts

Source: Institute of Supply Management, TradeStation

The only other item of interest from last week was a big one… and a disappointing one. Despite a fairly encouraging job growth report from ADP earlier in the week, the Department of Labor came in with a notably different assessment. It says we only added 194,000 new jobs in September, versus expectations of 450,000.

Payroll Growth and Unemployment Rate Charts

Source: Department of Labor, TradeStation

That was still enough to drive the unemployment rate down from 5.2% to 4.8%. Just bear in mind that August's payroll growth figure was revised higher by a fairly significant degree. Still, the overall jobs picture from last month is more negative than positive. Everything else is on the grid.

Economic Calendar

Source: Briefing.com

This week is going to be a big one even if not a busy one, and you can't afford to miss any of the key reports when they're posted. We're going to be getting a slew of data, each piece of which is something the Fed will have to consider as it weighs what to do with interest rates. In fact, although the minutes from the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee are due on Wednesday, they're already going to be obsolete. [Nevertheless, look for changes to the Fed's language from the previous meeting's minutes.]

First and foremost, this is a big week for an updated look at the inflation picture. On Wednesday, look for last month's consumer inflation data, followed by producers' and factories' input cost picture on Thursday. Both are still sky high, but don't look for relief this time around. Economists are modeling the same sort of price increases for September that we saw in August.

Consumer, Producer Inflation Charts

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation

On Friday look for last month's retail spending data. Forecasters are calling for overall growth again, although slower than August's red-hot pace of 1.8%. Factor is car sales, and retail spending should actually fall… mostly due to a lack of inventory.

Retail Sales Charts

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation

Despite plenty of reasons for consumers to keep their purse strings drawn closed, retail spending has actually remained a rather bright spot.

Stock Market Index Analysis

The S&P 500 never broke under the prior week's low around 4287, pushing up and off that support level instead. Similarly, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) didn't even try to break through its recent technical resistance, also peeling back to rather nominal levels. It looks like just-another routine recovery… the kind we've seen with all the other lulls since early last year. Take a quick look at the daily chart.

S&P 500 Daily Chart, with VIX and Volume

Source: TradeNavigator

Don't be too quick to jump to this superficial conclusion, however.

Take a closer, longer look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below. Notice the index did NOT crawl back above the 50-day moving average line (purple), nor did it end the week above the 20-day moving average line (blue) as of Friday's close. Stocks are still on the defensive here, and still within easy reach of major technical support. One or two (or maybe three) bad days could still turn into big-time trouble. And, with Thursday's opening bullish gap still ready to be closed, we're kicking things off this week facing an uphill battle.

The daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite looks pretty similar, if not identical. The index didn't move back above its 20-day or 50-day moving averages, and also remains within easy reach of a couple of key support levels. The VXN is also still very near a key technical ceiling (red) currently at 27.8.

NASDAQ Composite Daily Chart, with VXN

Source: TradeNavigator

Here's the weekly chart of the S&P 500, just for a little added perspective. It doesn't show us anything new, but it does put into context just how much things have changed — for the worse — over the course of the past three weeks. This weekly chart also makes it quite clear just how big of a deal the VIX's falling resistance line is. A move under it could prove to be catastrophic for stocks, but traders are doing everything they can to prevent that from happening.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart, with VIX

Source: TradeNavigator

With all of that being said, it would be time well spent to take a look at a chart we rarely consider… the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index.

We mentioned a few days ago in a commentary posted at the website that while "the market" was seemingly in a selloff, the bulk of that selloff was being dished out by large cap growth stocks. Small cap stocks and value stocks (and small cap value stocks in particular) were actually inching their way higher despite the bearish environment. In fact, it's possible that small can and value names were moving upward specifically because large cap growth names were retreating, with investors looking for more reliable alternatives.

That premise is still a distinct possibility. But, we've not exactly seen small caps as a group kick-start a real rally. They're just as close to a breakdown, in fact, as a breakout. The good news is, it's crystal clear where the Russell 2000's make-or-break lines are. It's trapped within two converging wedge patterns. One of these sets of boundaries is plotted with red lines on the daily chart below, while the other upper and lower boundaries are plotted in blue. The index remains perfectly stuck in the middle of both trading ranges, and as was noted, could just as easily be flung out of these confines in a downward direction as it could be in a bullish direction.

Russell 2000 Daily Chart, with Volume

Source: TradeNavigator

We only point it out so you can add the chart's markings to your list of clues that just might tell us what's really happening with the broad market, and its individual pieces. Just be prepared for the possibility that, like a couple of weeks ago, large caps and small caps may end up moving on opposite directions, with one pullback fueling the other's rally.  

It's all in the straight-line support and resistance, which is clearer now than it typically is.

There may soon be another chance to buy the only FAANG stock hitting new highs this month.

Netflix shares have bucked the sell-off in fellow FAANG names – Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Google parent Alphabet – and the broader technology sector in the past month, climbing to fresh all-time highs.

The rise comes as the streaming giant's "Squid Game" series explodes in popularity, the most watched in at least 90 countries and a key catalyst for the recent uptick in Netflix app downloads.

Netflix's upcoming earnings report, scheduled for Oct. 19, could create an entry point in its stock, New Street Advisors Group founder and CEO Delano Saporu told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

"There's still more room to run," Saporu said. "I was looking at that 610 mark, which is about the most recent high. We've obviously broken through that and I think there will be more room to run up until earnings."

With the stock trading around $637 a share on Thursday, Saporu said too high expectations could create some downward pressure heading into the report.

"That could bring a pullback where investors could look for an opportunity to buy in at that time," he said. "If you're an investor right now, we're running into uncharted territory as far as the stock so you may wait and look what happens at earnings and see if there's an opportunity there. But I definitely still like and am bullish on Netflix."

Netflix has also broken above key resistance, meaning there could be more upside, Blue Line Capital founder and President Bill Baruch said in the same interview.

"If you're a momentum trader, you've got your risk management just right here in place," Baruch said. "You get long and you put a stop somewhere around 620 or so and keep it really tight. If this thing continues to break out and stays out above that trend line, you stay long."

Baruch added that he would prefer to own shares of Netflix and a travel stock such as Expedia over entertainment and theme park play Disney.

"Disney doesn't really do it for me," he said. "Unfortunately, I don't own Netflix and I kind of slept on the pullback, but I would love for an opportunity to see Netflix come back into a buy range. As Delano was saying, wait for earnings, wait for a pullback and I think you could have an opportunity."

From CNBC

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A painful month for high-growth stocks has punished the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

Bond yields have risen on higher inflation expectations over that stretch – high-growth stocks such as technology often fall during these times as their valuations are harder to justify.

The QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF, which holds stocks such as Apple and Microsoft, has fallen 7% since an early September high. Roughly half of the ETF's stocks now trade below their 200-day moving average, a critical longer-term trend line.

"I definitely was one of the people sounding the alarm about stretched valuations," Gina Sanchez, chief market strategist at Lido Advisors, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday.

"The reason that a lot of people really weren't that concerned about technology was because technology had a good story going into the pandemic and then the pandemic gave it some rocket fuel and so then it did really well," she said.

The QQQ ETF rallied nearly 50% in 2020, buoyed during the initial stretch of the pandemic by a reliance on technology – those gains well surpassed the 16% gain for the S&P 500. The QQQ ETF peaked at more than 32 times forward earnings in September 2020.

"Now here's the problem. As the rest of the economy has opened up, tech and communications just haven't had the same play, and that's 70% of the QQQs. And if you look all year as the reopening has occurred the QQQs have lagged the S&P 500, and that's just because there are other places right now to play the reopening," Sanchez said.

She says it's not "dead money" but will likely lag as investors search for better opportunities with "more reasonable and more sustainable" valuations.

Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital Management, sees this as the typical cycle that impacts growth stocks when interest rates move up.

"But, don't make this mistake, we're still seeing growth outpace on relative strength. If you take that center S&P as the benchmark, growth is still in the last two months outperforming value," Gordon said during the same interview.

The IVW growth ETF, which holds stocks with a premium valuation, has risen 16% this year. The IVE value ETF, by comparison, is up 14% – these stocks are considered cheap relative to the rest of the market.

Growth has fallen more than value in the past month, though. Gordon adds that he predicts a rotation back into growth stocks after that recent decline.

From CNBC

In other words, it's bad. The selling is now in a situation where it could take on a life of its own, creating an environment where the bearish tide takes all stocks out to sea with it.

Except, not all stocks are actually being taken out to sea.

It's pretty common for traders to conflate "the market" and the S&P 500. On an even less formal basis, when traders talk about the market's health they're actually talking about popular growth stocks. Big mistake. While all stocks can and do move as a herd some of the time, other times, they're not all in the same boat. Small caps and mid caps can do their own thing. Value stocks and growth stocks are also not inherently tethered. That matters a lot — probably — right now.

Take a look at the performance comparison chart of the major style and market cap groups below. Large caps have been in a slump, and large cap growth stocks in particular. Not every grouping is losing ground though. Small cap value and mid cap value stocks are not only holding up, they're making forward progress in an otherwise challenging environment.

It's not a complicated explanation. Traders are migrating into names that are likely to be less impacted by a major market meltdown… probably. We have to assume this dynamic will remain in place until it's clear we can't any longer.

Small cap value stocks as measured by the iShares S&P 600 Value ETF (IJS) are also clearly in better technical condition than other groupings. With Monday's modest gain these names closed above their 100-day moving average line. It's now above all of its moving average lines, in fact… something that can't be said of any other group. In fact, it looks like IJS is finding support at the 50-day moving average line (purple), and knocking on the door of a break above technical resistance right around $104.00 (red, dashed).

Is it enough to make a big bet? Not quite, and not just because this particular ETF really needs to clear the $104 mark to be as bullish as it could possibly be. If things go from bad to worse for the "the market" we typically interchange with the S&P 500, the tide could still up-end small and mid cap stocks of all ilks.

Still, it's a detail worth noting. It can't hurt to diversify long and short trades here, nor can it hurt to diversify away from the market's most watched and most traded stocks.