EVERYTHING 2.0

Symptoms of Death

2009-11-05T18:27:00.001+01:00

I guess that about 20% of the 7,000+ initiatives that I've indexed between 2006 and 2008 (in my EVERYTHING 2.0 blog) have disappeared from our screens. A considerable number were just fun projects, without any business perspective. The better ones got acquired - I guess 70, or so. A few of the weaker-but-still-interesting-enough found partners to merge with. But most members of the 2.0 Death Pool just perished.

Many of them did it graciously, diligently informing their members, sometimes even giving them time to remove their data. But, still, quite a number of companies just stopped their activities - in mid air, so to speak.

During the past 12 months I've sometimes captured the messages that I got (over email) or found (on a dead web page).

This collage draws the whole picture (especially when you have good eyes):

Visualdna - Find your taste mates & sell them stuff

2009-08-31T16:37:00.002+02:00

BeZoone Lays Seed for Good Result in Turkish Airlines' Treasure Hunt

2009-06-27T13:19:00.002+02:00

to participate in the Turkish Airlines pitch, my friends at BeZoone, a brilliant interactive agency in Istanbul founded by Result's partner Bülent Boytorun, had to find documents that were hidden all over the internet.

It seems that they've now scored all the bits and pieces. They have started a blog documenting everything. It's obvious that they aren't sharing everything yet, so it’ll be interesting to see how this develops over the coming weeks.

On the blog I also spotted a guest appearance of my Latvian partner, Roman Jasins:

Myngle - Learn a 2nd language wherever your are

2009-04-15T17:46:00.008+02:00

My technology predictions for 2009, and beyond

2009-01-04T17:54:00.005+01:00

1. Content is king, contacts are queen.
2. Media will all be focusing more on monetization of (sometimes: hidden) digital assets.
3. Subscription models for premium features and services will blossom.
4. Filesharing will, in all kinds of disguises, remain a main driver of social media’s success.
5. The most successful communities and social media that don’t have a sustainable revenue model can be acquired relatively cheaply.
6. Big American communities will focus on monetizing non U.S. traffic.
7. Identity portability (as in single sign-on) and profile portability will be war grounds.
8. More traditional media will all have to implement strategies on how to aggregate content from social softwares and social media.
9. Therefore traditional media have to build partnership strategies for the technologies and services they can’t or dare not develop themselves.
10. Aggregation services require (better) filtering technologies.
11. Almost all media can increase traffic and stickiness by integrating (better) communication tools.
12. Content, features and services will become more and more location aware.
13. More things we do over IP must fit “all screens”.
14. Media that help advertisers to target better, and to optimise results, will thrive.
15. RSS will play a more important role in all kinds of content distribution and aggregation.
16. RSS will e.g. be seamlessly integrated in all kinds of aggregation models for social media and in (multimedia) advertising models.
17. Personal (live) video (mainly through mobile2web) will gain popularity.
18. Social networking goes mobile.
19. M-commerce will soar.
20. App stores will soar.
21. Display advertising will further decrease, except for ads targeted smartly to the affluent.
22. Brands will focus more on non-traditional exposure, as in sponsoring, content creation and community building, tool facilitation.
23. Advertisers will force media to accept CPA and CPT models above CPM and CPC.
24. Business intelligence and analytics will get much more attention.
25. Social impact and commitment will become research parameters.
26. Technologies that help to optimise online marketing will thrive.
27. Me-commerce, social shopping and collaborative buying will grow considerably.
28. Online video advertising will gain considerable market share.
29. Concerns about online privacy will frustrate full deployment of smart targeting technologies.
30. Consumers will demand greener IT from their online information and service providers.

All technology predictions for 2009, and beyond

2008-12-30T13:24:00.035+01:00

ICT

A.J. Kohn, 2009 Internet and Technology Predictions on Blind Five Year Old

1. Facebook Becomes A Portal

2. Identity Systems Fail

3. Video Advertising Succeeds

4. Microformats Go Mainstream

5. Banner CTR Becomes Obsolete

6. RSS Adoption Spikes

7. Kindle 2.0 Flops

8. Google Search Share Stalls

9. FriendFeed Surpasses Twitter

10. Someone ‘Dies’

Jo Best, Five tech predictions for 2009 on Silicon.com

1. The rise of 'free as in beer' software

2. iPlayer ushers in the death of the TV licence

3. Big boys feel the pain

4. Google reveals another surprise

5. Mobile broadband beats fixed

Jeremy Liew, Consumer Internet predictions for 2009 on Vator

1. Consumers seek cheap thrills

2. Trading real money for virtual goods

3. Web 2.0 leaders pull further away from the pack

4. on line ad prices continue to fall, alternatives help make up some of the ground

5. Getting serious about monetizing non U.S. traffic

Dion Hinchcliffe, The Top Internet Predictions for 2009 on Social Computing Magazine

1. Site mergers/acquisitions for some of the weaker social network platforms

2. Stronger push towards identity portability and friend (social graph) portability.

3. The future of social media is user's owning their data, deciding who to send it to.

4. Companies finally building for revenue in the social and any other space on line.

5. Social Media will cease to be such an 'experimental' field in marketing and will start to become part of the main core of good campaigns.

6. The opening of social networks so that they can exchange profiles, social relationships, and applications.

7. Social media in 2009 becoming more and more accessible to mainstream audiences.

8. Much richer integration of location-aware services with a variety of devices.

9. Collaborative mapping - people working together with friends and colleagues to build shared maps of places they care about.

10. Location based services will proliferate and become more useful to the end user.

11. We'll see the tech take shape and make more money in 2009.

12. Aggregation services will change from just drinking from the fire hose to become very specific aggregation tools, perhaps with very specific use cases.

13. The pace of evolution may really slow down by comparison, but the user experience will be far better.

Ori Fishler, Top 5 Web Technology Trends for 2009 on Edgewater Technology Weblog

1. Actionable Web Analytics as part of Enterprise BI and Dashboards.

2. Phone Browser Compatibility

3. Location based services

4. Increased reliance on open source infrastructure products and technologies

5. Free is always a powerful word. Strong and reliable open source environments allow

Richard MacManus et al., 2009 Web Predictions on ReadWriteWeb (added 2008-12-31)

1. Twitter announces they have a plan to make money.

2. New real-time web app launches that integrates Twitter, FriendFeed & more.

3. Professional twitterer becomes a real job.

4. Twitter will start to embed advertising into its users streams.

5. Twitter will be acquired (probably by Facebook).

6. Twitter is going to continue to grow and eventually get acquired, while Facebook is going to see further decline.

7. Facebook signs up to OpenSocial.

8. Facebook will continue to surprise.

9. Big companies will have incentive to give OpenID more support because of Facebook's domination.

10. Facebook Connect becomes new de facto way to login to web sites.

11. Facebook Connect authentication will become dominant method.

12. Facebook has one security incident too many, leading to a decline in popularity.

13. Microsoft will double-down on its Facebook investment, garnering more control of the company - and more access to the data.

14. Microsoft resurrects WebTV after buying out Netflix.

15. Microsoft will launch a competing platform with Apple's App Store.

16. Microsoft releases a cool online version of Office, but then Google releases an amazing new version of Google Docs.

17. Gmail will be the de facto login credential on the Web.

18. Google Reader gets themes.

19. The browser wars will further heat up.

20. Google Chrome adds plugins....

21. Google backlash begins.

22. Google will finally offer a comprehensive online storage solution and some kind of travel product.

23. Google loses goodwill, Yahoo gains.

24. Yahoo sells to a big media company, but it won't be Microsoft.

25. Amazon will further strengthen its position in the cloud computing market.

26. eBay oscillates between break-up and acquisition; it will eventually be acquired by Amazon.

27. The usual suspects will remain unacquired in '09: Digg, Twitter, Technorati. The one that does get bought is FriendFeed - by Google probably.

28. Lifestreams will continue to evolve.

29. iTunes adds social networking features; but it's still a closed development system.

30. If Apple finally enables its push server, mobile social networks and geolocation enabled apps will become a major topic.

31. New iPods released...now with VOIP app built-in.

32. New iPhone is released with video recording capabilities.

33. One of the major gaming platform companies will acquire iPhone development shops to corner the market on iPhone gaming.

34. Under pressure from iPhone, Android, Symbian, and RIM; Windows Mobile will attempt to reinvent itself.

35. Digg still not acquired by anyone.

36. Lifestreaming apps like FriendFeed will remain niche products.

37. Mixx concentrates on usability and starts gaining ground on Digg.

38. LinkedIn will grow in the public's consciousness and grow their revenue dramatically.

39. Apps that do filtering, inferring and recommendation have a great year.

40. The value of data portability and single sign-in becomes unmistakable after a privacy breach.

41. Consumer and regulatory backlash make online privacy into a key differentiator for major players.

42. Have cake and eat it too solutions will emerge as a strong option.

43. Exciting new open source projects will emerge and grow.

44. More contextual browsing technologies will hit the market.

45. Streaming web video to the living room will go mainstream.

46. P2P shows value for reducing cost of server farms.

47. VCs jump onto the SAAS bandwagon, but most ventures don't need the cash.

48. 2009 will be like 2002 for raising money or exiting.

49. More Indian start-ups go global with price-smashing strategy.

50. Health web apps start getting attention from mainstream people and media.

51. Netbooks stay hot...get lighter, faster, thinner, line between notebooks and netbooks blurs.

52. Media properties prominently experiment with different and innovative types of online advertising.

53. One or two interface developments will blow us away.

54. Out of work journalists band together and create some killer blogs.

10 Predictions for the Internet for 2009 on Trade Radar (added 01-01-2009)

1. More blogs!

2. Google will continue to dominate.

3. Linked-In will soar as waves of unemployed try to bolster their personal networks.

4. Amazon will take its place beside Google as one of the two technology leaders on the Internet.

5. Facebook will surpass MySpace in unique traffic and begin to pull away.

6. E*Trade will be acquired.

7. Advertisers will push publishers to accept CPA versus CPC.

8. With location awareness becoming ubiquitous, anonymity on the web will be degraded.

9. Monetization of certain popular sites will stall.

10. Yahoo will sell its search capability to Microsoft and Google will buy what's left.

Ryan Lawler, Contentinople's Top 10 Predictions for 2009 on Contentinople (added 2009-01-03)

1. Hulu will hit 1 billion streams worldwide

2. Online video ad units will look more like broadcast units

3. Users will start to ditch pay TV for broadband

4. Behavioral ads will be 'targeted' by Congress

5. CDN consolidation will begin in earnest

6. Digital 3-D will go mainstream

7. Twitter will pull in 'significant' revenue

8. Online ad spend will start catching up to eyeballs

9. Royalty issues will kill streaming music sites

10. Internet video will be stuck on PCs - for now

Mary Meeker,Technology / Internet Trends [PDF] on MorganStanley.com (added 2008-01-05)

1. Undermonetized Internet Usage Growth Drivers – Video + Social Networking + VoIP + Payments

2. Broadband + Mobile + Internet = Especially High Global Growers

3. Lots of Retail Share to Gain Amazon.com Should Continue to Gain Share USA; Online Penetration = 6% and Rising

4. Lots of Ad Share to Gain $288 Per Home vs. $818 for Newspapers Implies Upside

5. Search Should Continue to Become More Important

6. While CPMs / CPCs May be Under Near-Term Pressure, If Targeting / ROI

7. Continue to Improve (as they should) There Should Be Long-Term Upside

8. Best News = History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time

Sharon Besser, One 2009 Prediction you can count on on Imperva Blog (added 2008-01-05)

1. Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive

Stanley Tang, 5 Internet Marketing & Social Media Predictions For 2009 on Stanleytang.com

1. Twitter Will Get Bought Out

2. Mobile Applications Will Take-Off

3. A New Tool To Help Us With Organization

4. Videos - Interactive And Live Streaming

5. Social Media Continues To Grow

Jeff Nolan, 2009 Predictions on MyVenturePad (added 01-01-2009)

1. Consumers re-evaluate the notion of value.

2. Word of mouth marketing increases in importance.

3. A major American city will be without a daily newspaper.

4. Advertising as a primary business model for consumer web services will be abandoned.

5. Enterprise software nuclear winter

6. What SMB gives, SMB takes away

7. Role of government in business

8. Younger employees will simply be thankful to have a job

Adam Weinroth, Nine E-Commerce Predictions for 2009 on Shop.org
1. Real-Time Customer Service
2. Communal Conversion
3. TWOM = Trusted Word of Mouth
4. E-Commerce Sovereignty
5. Focus on Per-Customer Value
6. Widespread UGC
7. Growth Through Accountability
8. International Intensity
9. User Experience Innovation

What’s coming in on line retail and technology on Guidance.com

1. Mobile will NOT be the killer app for eCommerce…

2. The lines between on line and offline shopping will blur

3. Consumers will create their own personal shopping malls

4. “Smart” retail sites will treat shoppers as individuals

5. Commerce will become even more collaborative

6. The next wave for video? Customer reviews

7. Configuration: beyond the product, configure the entire purchase

8. Use tweets to capitalize on buzz

9. Corporations will “become” social

10. People might increasingly turn to social networks

11. Retailers will need to have someone (or a team) designated to be the “personality” of the company on line

Taly Weiss, Influencers Predictions on TrendsSpotting Blog (added 01-01-2009)

Social Media Influencers Predictions 2009 By Trendsspotting

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Influencers On Mobile 2009 2020 Predictions By Trendsspotting

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Influencers On Online Marketing 2009 Predictions By Trendsspotting

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J. Seid, Mobile Predictions For 2009 on Lightspeed Venture Partners

1. The iPhone’s impact is not directly due to iPhone usage.

2. 3G networks break.

3. Mobile app/wap business models are put through the crucible.

Carlo Longino, 2009 Precitions on Lightspeed Venture Partners

1. Palm and/or Motorola’s handset business will die.

2. Apple will release more versions of the iPhone.

3. Flat-rate data will make a big move to prepaid phones.

4. Streaming audio services will start to show some of the promise of mobile music — then they’ll get smacked down by operators.

5. Nokia’s services strategy will succeed — in emerging markets.

6. WiMAX networks become a success, at least in the US.

7. Mobile transactions take off in Europe and the US.

8. By the end of 2009, I’ll be able to count the failure of at least 5 mobile startups whose products I really enjoy or use.

9. Unless Android gets put into a really sexy device, it’ll stay in the background.

10. Term of the year: “app store.”

Tech Upheavals in 2009 on T1 Rex's Business Telecom Explainer (added 2008-12-31)

1. Wireless Broadband Replaces DSL and Cable

2. Cellphones Replace Laptops

3. Copper Replaces Fiber

4. Fiber Becomes Infrastructure

5. Internet Replaces Software

Chris Lennartz, Mobile Predictions 2009 on GoMo News (added 2009-01-03)

1. Mobile messaging to defy economic downturn

2. Less developed regions to fuel peaks in SMS activity

3. Personalisation comes of age

4. Mobile marketing and advertising surges ahead

5. Mobile internet overtakes PC based internet use

6. Focus on mobile security increases as mobile commerce comes of age

7. China fuels MMS uptake

8. The digital youth drives changes in communication

9. Mobiles go green

John Strand, Predictions for the Telecoms Market in 2009 on Strand Reports (added 2008-01-05)

1. Almost all the world's mobile operators will primarily focus on mobile broadband.

2. Operators over time having five choices on how to continue to do business - reducing SAC, reducing customers’ consumption, launching premium products, bundling services with a mobile broadband product and launching premium billing on mobile broadband.

3. IP billing will become a natural part the mobile broadband market and later on the traditional broadband market.

4. Customers will focus on value for money.

5. Migrating from fixed lines to mobile will accelerate.

6. The customers will take over the handset market.

7. Operators will primarily purchase extra capacity and expansion of their mobile broadband networks.

8. The MVNO market will spread to South America, the Middle East and perhaps Asia.

9. New types of MVNOs will emerge – e.g. data-based MVNOs, mobile ISPs, data services, including machine to machine solutions.

10. Handset subsidies and dealer commissions will come under great pressure.

11. All operators will use all means at their disposal to acquire a large a share as possible of the mobile broadband market.

12. Operators will use project outsourcing to achieve a leaner organisation.

13. The media will be flooded with stories about DSL, Fibre to the home, Femto cells, WIMAX, CDMA, LTE, HSUPA, GSM/CDMA-450Mhz, UWB and DVB-H.

14. Most fibre providers are having difficulty getting their business cases to work.

15. The roadmap is GSM, UMTS and then LTE.

16. The market for portable PCs with built-in mobile broadband will develop into a revolution.

17. Nokia will do everything they can to create an alternative to Google Maps.

18. Competition between handset manufacturers will be limited when compared to the competition from ultra portable PCs.

19. A number of the services that are currently free will start costing money when other players bundle their products with different types of services.

20. The biggest new thing in 2009 will be premium mobile broadband services.

21. Mobile broadband operators will launch IP billing and an open garden strategy similar to premium SMS.

22. We will see a number of convergence services that can be used on a mobile handset and shared with others over the Internet.

23. The operator centralised financial model will come out the winner in the short and medium term.

Chetan Sharma, Mobile Industry Predictions 2009 on ChetanSharma.com (added 2009-01-03)

2009 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

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Michele Pelino et.al., [Forrester] Predictions 2009: What’s In Store For Enterprise Mobility [PDF] on Mobile Gadget News (added 2009-01-03)

1. Similar to 2008, mobility initiatives at enterprises will be a priority — even in a down.

2. iPhones get adopted by 10% of SMBs; the BlackBerry Storm gives it a run for its money.

3. Emerging markets become the hotbed of enterprise mobile activity — especially apps.

4. Enterprises actually start implementing tools to address mobility security issues.

5. Vendors develop products and services to (finally) address the mobile wannabe user segment.

6. Consolidation occurs in the enterprise mobility vendor landscape.

David Pogue, Cellular Technology Trends of 2009 on Fora.tv

Ron Tolido,Technology Predictions 2009: the compilation on CapGemini (added 01-01-2009)

1. Deliberately Disconnected - we will more and more actively seek to disconnect ourselves from the madness.

2. Cisco will be KLM – Air France biggest challenger.

3. The cloud is destined to become main stream.

4. Web 2.0 is finally becoming business main stream in 2009.

5. Email is dead - Outlook and BlackBerry will no longer rule our life.

6. Cloud-in-a-container - some businesses will prefer to experiment with a safer cloud ‘on premise’.

7. WebKit surpasses Flash Player penetration.

8. “Trust” is the new version of “Control”.

9. Music-as-a-Service (…at last).

10. Let’s socialise - social networks will even happen in business.

11. Standards bodies wake up to clouds.

12. Bricolage IT - business units are bound to do it themselves.

13. Information filtering and behavioral targeting are the new gold.

14. Slow IT.

15. The end of the user - we all become ‘participants’ of systems, actually becoming one with information technology.

16. Death of the money making core product - businesses will use web 2.0 to sell ancillary products and services.

17. A more sensible approach to de-risking data loss - Enterprise Digital Rights Management (ERM).

18. “Open” is the new “Closed”.

Wille Faler, Five trends to watch in 2009 on Buzzword Bingo (added 01-01-2009)

1. The end of excessive leverage and finance as we know it

2. Cloud computing goes enterprise

3. Backlash against software as a service

4. Exploding cybercrime and opportunities in stopping it

5. A resurgence for simplicity

Nathaniel Whittemore, Top Trends 2009*** on Social Entrepeneurship (added 01-01-2009)

1. A Partner in the White House

2. Green Innovation

3. Blended Value Investing

4. Online Action Platforms

5. Mobile Technology

6. Measuring Social Impact

7. Globally-Engaged Education

Alex Chriss, 5 “sure thing” Technology Predictions for 2009 (sure to be wrong!) on Tech Spheres

1. Massive consolidation of technology startups, acquisitions galore

2. Twitter explodes…in a good way

3. The mobile industry is going to be boring

4. Adobe Air apps rock the world

5. Traditional Small Businesses move to SaaS in droves

Stephanie N. Mehta, 4 tech predictions for 2009 on CNN Money

1. Spiraling netbooks

2. Corporate cloud computing

3. Virtualization

4. Girls (and guys) just wanna have fun

John Gallagher, Frost & Sullivan Release 2009 Technology Predictions on Global IP Solutions

1. The migration to VoIP and SIP will continue despite the economic downturn.

2. The application is king; total “application performance” will supersede standalone “network performance” metrics.

3. Video (unicast and multicast) network infrastructure will continue to be enhanced.

4. Advertising will be a battleground.

5. Consumer Spending Shifts.

Andrew A. Peterson, Technology Predictions for 2009 (Of Course These Are Probably All Naive ones) on Andrewapeterson.com

1. Linux Will Come and Start Killing.

2. Ajax Will Continue to Prevail as the Shiznit in Web Development (while Flash and others continue to die).

3. Affordable Smartphones.

4. Ubiquity of Navigation Systems and/or GPS.

5. Google Will Roll Out Geo-Targeted Advertising for Realz.

6. Google Search to Shape Up or Start Shipping Out.

Christian Sarkar, Mark Anderson: 10 Technology Predictions for 2009 on Christiansarkar.com

1. It will be a big year for applications that can play on big screens.

2. The big news in the mobile world will be smart phone applications.

3. The blush is off the China rose.

4. Flash-based computing will really take off.

5. Wall computing gets traction.

6. Carry-along computers will be hot.

7. LTE (Long Term Evolution will be the preferred technology for 4G.

8. The less developed world will finally see widespread availability of broadband.

9. Voice recognition will finally work right.

10. The Internet Assistant will be born.

Martin Veitch, Top Tech Predictions for 2009 on PC World

1. Everyone moves to the cloud.

2. Networks will be squeezed like lemons.

3. Budgets will be flatter than a flat thing.

4. Virtual desktops and mobile devices will be everywhere in 2009.

5. Business continuity planning will stay solid.

Ged Carroll, Predictions for 2009 on Renaissance Chambara (added 2008-12-31)

1. Haptic displays are going to evolve for mobile devices

2. Mobile devices won’t move forward much as the battery life isn’t there

3. Mini and micro USB connections will become the norm on many cell phones

4. SSD drives will continue their slow advance into the mainstream

5. Sales of hardware will drop due to a focus on cheaper platforms, the power of mobile devices and virtualisation

6. People will start to get concerned about IP v.6 compatability

7. DVDs will exist happily alongside Blu-ray

8. The Nintendo DS does comparatively well as it becomes the geek’s answer to the lipstick effect

9. Enterprises are going to start looking seriously at devices like the Asus eeePC

10. Business software won’t provide any magic gains in productivity

11. Google is likely to find itself on the end of a federal anti-trust case

12. Google is likely to make new inroads into the enterprise.

13. It won’t be Cisco that makes that leap forward in screen technology

14. Amazon’s Kindle won’t be a great success in Europe

15. Amazon Marketplace will do rather better so long as it avoids eBay-type fraud cases

16. There won’t be any major innovations in online marketing as marketers stick with tried and proven ROI ways

17. There won’t be a breakthrough application in the way Twitter broke through in 2007/8

18. People will form company-specific Facebook groups to reflect on how bitter they are over being made redundant

19. Badvocate causes will multiply

20. Mobile will be embraced by pioneer brands

21. ADSL broadband connections will decline slightly

Dion Hinchcliffe, 8 Predictions for Enterprise Web 2.0 in 2009 on ZDNet Blogs (added on 14-01-2009)

1. Tight budgets will drive the adoption of low-cost Web 2.0 and cloud/SaaS solutions.

2. Online community and 2.0 technologies become a priority for most organizations.

3. Cloud computing will remain one of the biggest new Internet developments.

4. Internal use of 2.0 will continue growth in large enterprises while the struggle continues with market-facing 2.0 products.

5. The economic climate will at long last drive major advances towards aligning IT with business.

6. Mobile platforms and devices will become highly strategic in 2009.

7. SOA goes on a diet, picks up some new tricks, and survives.

8. The massive changes in the business landscape create new 2.0 business opportunities.

MEDIA

Peter Kim, Social Media Predictions 2009 on Beingpeterkim

1. You may not always start the year as a leader, but you can certainly finish it that way.

2. Intimacy touches emotion; emotion powers conversation.

3.Doors are going to close all over the social web. Why? Because the money didn't come the way people thought it would.

4. The tipping point has not on ly *not* been reached, but could still tilt *away* from Social Media.

5. There's a lot of fixing that needs to be done.

6. Dwindling budgets suddenly make low-cost social media look like the pretty girl at the ball.

7. We're going to develop a set of better metrics to help guide, direct and validate 'commitment'.

8. The movement is rooted in a desire to have quality, not quantity, as people cocoon in the face of the economic crisis.

9. The recession will force revenue results out of social technologies.

10.Companies that focus on earning love will thrive during hard times, and kick ass when good times return.

11.Suddenly, being Facebook friends with your mom will seem less ridiculous than following 4,000 strangers on Twitter.

Michael Moir, Social Media Predictions 2009 on The Next Web

1. Social Media Maturation

2. Open Standards for User Data

3. Mergers/Acquisitions

4. Location Based Services

5. Aggregation Services

6. Social Media Business Model

Diane Mermigas, Pragmatic Media Predictions for 2009 on Seeking Alpha

1. Television broadcasters and newspapers have their moment of truth

2. All media will hang on and gear up for post-recession consolidation

3. There will be big media sellers

4. There will be big media spenders

5. Legacy costs, structure and processes are history

6. The Long Tail gets squeezed

7. Advertisers will spend even less than the worst-case decline forecast

8. Major ad categories will never be the same

9. Consumers continue to embrace and drive digital

10. Local is the new social

11. At least on e broadcast network disappears

12. Digital video growth continues

13. Refinement of on line functions

14. New media economics and business models

15. More accountable, monetizable media metrics

16. Mobile connectivity will become the core platform

17. Governments and gatekeepers seek digital cash

Steve Rosenbaum, 2009 - 5 Trends That Will Change Media on AlwaysOn (added 2009-01-03)

1. The Growth of the Curation Economy

2. The Emergence of targeted CPA/CPC as Contextual Content Revenues

3. The Merging of eCommerce and Content

4. Digital Goods - Consumers begin to pay for content

5. Cottage Media Takes Off

Charlene Li, Predictions for 2009 on The Altimeter

1. Obama-maniacs will spawn a new age of activism.

2. Exclusivity trumps accessibility.

3. Facebook's SocialRank algorithms emerge to drive the open social Web.

4. Everyone becomes a marketer.

5. Shopping Goes Social.

6. Implicit social and behavior data shapes ad targeting innovations, leading to "Personal CPMs".

7. The portal wars shift to openness.

Jeremy Campbell, 9 on line Video Predictions for 2009 on Web Video Unleashed

1. Videos continue to spread throughout the social web via embeds and syndication deals.

2. Some innovative creators with good shows start getting sponsorship dollars.

3. Shows will get more interactive, so rather than watching a new show on ce/week there will be things happening on a daily basis.

4. on line video will have the strongest ad growth numbers in comparison to other ad formats.

5. Hulu will get to the number 2 spot behind on ly YouTube in terms of monthly unique viewers.

6. Increased collaboration will lead to more quality content, and raise the bar for video creators and producers.

7. CDN bandwidth will get more affordable as the space further consolidates and matures.

8. Mobile video really starts to take off thanks to cool new iPhone apps .

9. on line video advertising is expected to grow to 45% nextyear.

Alex Castro, Peering into 2009: 10 Predictions for Online Video on SoftRatty (added 2008-12-31)

1. Record year for video content consumption

2. YouTube loses market share as market fragments

3. Advertiser dollars will shift to more measurable and targeted online video

4. Video monetization becomes reality – or at least starts to

5. On-demand video platforms gain as the economy slumps

6. Semantic web technologies emerge and prosper

7. Syndication of content

8. Small businesses embrace video advertising

9. Mobile video finally breaks out

10. Barack Obama reinvents the fireside chat

Bob Heyman, Web Video In The New Year on Video Insider

1.Video ad spending goes up.

2.Monetizing video search will stay a challenge.

3.Web shows will continue to be a labor of love.

4.It's not just a YouTube world.

5.Live video is the next new thing.

Jamison Tilsner, Predictions and Predilections for 2009 on Tilzy.tv (added 2009-01-03)

1. 2009 will be all about brands, not just shows.

2. There’s still very little money to be made in online video, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t create.

3. In 2009, concept before craft.

4. There will be celebs.

5. Apocalyptic/Economy web shows.

6. Content is king, contacts are queen.

7. Sketch comedy is so 2005.

8. Interactivity goes beyond a Facebook profile.

Will Richmond, Recapping 5 Broadband Video Predictions for 2009 on VideoNuze (added 2009-01-03)

1. The Syndicated Video Economy Accelerates

2. Mobile Video Takes Off, Finally

3. Net Neutrality Remains Dormant

4. Ad-Supported Premium Video Aggregators Shakeout

5. Microsoft Will Acquire Netflix

Alexander Casassovici , 2009 Predictions - 3DWeb Environments on Imperva BlogMobitrends (added 2008-01-05)

1. Most first-tier businesses will be carrying out experiments.

2. Bots and NPCs will become common thing within 3D web environments and IA will be able to start showing its full potential.

3. Accessories especially designed to engage in 3D web will roll out and the one already on the market will strongly develop.

4. 3D web will get mobile and to the games consoles.

5. 3D web will interconnect seamlessly with 2D web communication tools.

MARKETING

[Several authors], eMarketer's Predictions for 2009 on eMarketer

1. On line Ad Spending: Still Solid Choice

2. Demographics: Multicultural Ads Ascend

3. Retail E-Commerce: Record-Setting Declines

4. Social Networking: E-Commerce a Revenue Stream

5. Traditional Media: Continues Hurting

Joe Pulizzi et al., 42+ Social Media and Content Marketing Predictions for 2009 on Junta42

1. Marketers will get cheap.

2. Marketers will be more concerned with analytics and measuring success.

3. Brand marketers will be exploring or building their Social Media presence.

4. Marketers will continue to struggle with the lack of control over the content.

5. Combining traditional media with electronic media will increase.

6. Distributed Eventing.

7. More companies acting like Media companies.

8. Content will be more focused around conversation than messaging.

9. News articles with images and video syndicated in RSS feeds.

10. Social media is the new frontier for marketing.

11. Social media is going to be a killer way for brand marketers to distribute and create their content.

12. Embracing Web 2.0with social networking and bookmarking sites .

13. Social Media Marketing will become a more mainstream approach.

14. Video will continue to become more and more utilized.

15. More brands providing opportunities, tools and experiences.

16. Brands will take more ownership of the content they create.

17. More marketers empower employees across the company to be content creators.

18. Brand marketers will have their customers help them create and distribute brand content.

19. More brands developing a personality or a persona.

20. The transition of all media streams to become social is a permanent change.

21. Small businesses and micro-brands start using social media tools.

22. Less about search engine rankings and more about blending direct response writing with SEO principals.

23. Execution is the new strategy!

24. Content will help companies become ubiquitous in their area of expertise.

25. Marketers will employ content to attract interactive dialogues.

26. Microblogging, syndication and aggregation via RSS, email newsletters wedded to social network profiles.

27. Company-, user-, and agency-generated content facilitated and directed by dedicated content strategists.

28. Blogging will be the best way for the late adopters to ease into social media and content marketing.

29. We will see increased collaboration through cross marketing opportunities with web ads.

30. Marketers will reach out to custom media providers who specialize in digital magazines and on line applications.

31. Reaching consumers without appearing to be selling anything.

32. Brands will shy away from ads and toward sponsoring more independent editorial.

33. Professional writers, photographers, videographers, illustrators, animators, etc. will see increased demand for their services.

34. Brand marketers will buy media properties from traditional B2B publishers.

35. Brands will create their own private social networks.

36. Large agencies will collapse.

37. Brand marketers will realize the critical need to provide relevant, quality content.

38. Traditional media companies will continue to lose ad revenue from companies who create their own content

38. Smart media companies will prosper by offering innovative lead generation programs for companies to distribute their content to new audiences.

Johan Ronnestam, Brand and communication predictions for 2009 on Ronnestam.com

1. Technology becomes a commodity and ideas prosper from it

2. In 2009 print and outdoor advertising grow stronger while TV continues to die.

3. Communication Capitalism is born in 2009

4. on line advertising suffers from lack of competence and will slow down in 2009 for the first time in years

5. SEO / SEM freelancers organize themselves

6. Apple launches the iPhone Pro and starts selling iPhone and rate plans in iTunes.

7. Facebook Connect and Google Friend Connect continue to grow but Friendfeed Friends might be the winner in 2009

8. Branding is being reevaluated in 2009

9. Mashups grow up and conquer the corporate world.

Ashu Roy and Anand Subramaniam, 2009 Predictions in Customer Service and Contact Center Knowledge Management on Ebiz

1. Multi-modal web self-service for new levels of adoption

2. Cross-channel knowledge base for better customer experience

3. Chatbot for innovative, brand-building service experience

4. Web collaboration for real-time help and increased sales

5. Preemptive service for cost control, improved customer experience and sales

6. Knowledge-enabled best-agent replication for service excellence

7. The Unified Customer Interaction Hub (UCIH) for better experience at reduced cost

8. on -demand approach for reduced upfront investment and rapid time-to-benefit

Steve Baldwin, Ten (Highly Cynical) Predictions For 2009 on MediaPost (added 2009-01-03)

1. The U.S. will reexamine Google's market dominance.

2. Keyword prices will not come down.

3. The SEO profession will burgeon.

4. The mass media die-off will accelerate.

5. Another AOL-Style privacy breach will occur.

6. Social network valuations will crumble.

7. Web 2.0 will officially be proclaimed dead.

8. SEM trade shows will consolidate.

9. Microsoft will change MSN/Live to something else that nobody can remember.

10. Confusion will continue to befuddle CMOs.

CRM experts predict 2009 on DailyITNews (added 2008-12-31)

1. The emergence of the Social Consumer.

2. The imperative that CRM strategies deliver business value.

3. The requirement to fully cost-justify CRM investments.

4. The necessity to reduce the risk of CRM initiatives.

5. The need to get more value from customer information.

6. The battle to redress vendor pricing and licensing arrangements.

Jason Schwarz, Five Apple Predictions for 2009 on Seeking Alpha

1. Apple TV will evolve into an actual TV.

2. Apple will team up with a car manufacturer and begin producing the first iCar.

3. Apple will enter the Chinese market in a major way.

4. Apple hardware and software will continue to gain market share in the tech revolution.

Predictions for Google's 2009 on Google Operating System

1. 10% market share for Google Chrome.

2. Google's search engine will lose a significant amount of market share as Live Search's position will consolidate.

3. Google's Q&A service, used to implement Google help forums, will become a part of Google Apps.

4. GrandCentral will be publicly available in the US and the interface will integrate with Gmail.

5. Google will launch a mobile browser for feature phones and non-Android smart phones.

6. Google Bookmarks service will be adding hierarchical labels, sharing options and more intuitive visualizations.

7. Google will bring some of the Chrome features to other browsers.

8. Google Translate will be seamlessly integrated with many Google services and applications.

9. Google Reader will list popular posts shared by the community and you'll be able to subscribe to OPML files dynamically.

10. Google Maps Live will show webcams, a tab for Google Earth and custom maps, reviews and map edits from your contacts.

11. Google Contacts will become a separate application, it will offer advanced search and an option to synchronize contacts data.

12. Google's efforts to promote Chrome will make that it will be increasingly associated with Microsoft.

13. Many high-profile Google employees, including Marissa Mayer, will leave the company.

14. Google Apps will start to be attractive again on ce the App Engine will be fully released.

15. Personalized search ads for users that are logged in.

16. on eGoogle - a new interface that merges all Google applications.

SOFTWARE

Technology Predictions for 2009 on CMS Watch

1. Open source ECM players get an initial boost

2. Office14 casts long shadow on SharePoint

3. "Taxonomies are dead. Long live metadata!"

4. Regulatory-compliance concerns reignited

5. Renewed interest in pro-active e-discovery

6. SaaS vendors expand offerings

7. Oracle falls behind in battle for knowledge workers

8. New Emphasis on application search

9. Social computing diffuses into the Enterprise

10. Long-awaited consolidation comes to the WCM space

11. Mobile and multimedia web analytics become key requirements...and disrupters

12. Buyers remain in driver’s seat

Bob Trebilcock, Year end supply chain predictions for 2009 from i2 Technologies on Modern Materials Handling

1. SaaS and other engagement models will dominate in 2009.

2. Risk becomes real and so does risk management.

3.. Supply chain solutions drive a "greener" enterprise.

4. Business Intelligence (BI) will no longer be a separate enterprise application category.

Dave Kellogg, Top Ten Content Technology Predictions for 2009 on The Content Wrangler

1. Component-based authoring move beyond technical publications.

2. Microsoft SharePoint will continue its strong march

3. Enterprise XML content repositories emerge

4. Cloud confusion will end

5. Power, space, and cooling will become, pardon the phrase, “hot” items

6. XML will be dubbed an “overnight success”

7. Metadata will continue to rise in importance

8. Markup goes inline

9. Enterprise search engines will get caught between a rock and a hard place

John Tu, Kingston Technology 2009 Predictions & Trends for the Memory Market on Zawya

1. Consolidation and a simpler market

2. The rise of DRAM

3. High demand for Flash

4. Keep your data safe in 2009

5. Virtualisation, over the Hype Cycle

6. SSD still a hot topic but not a mainstream technology

7. New industry standards for SSD

8. Green IT

Jeremy Geelan, i-Technology Predictions for 2009: Clouds and Tightened Belts on Cloud Computing Journal

1. It's all about "the cloud."

2. Google is the biggest and the best on the Net, but there is on e problem:the whole world isn't just an ad.

3. Social Networking - […] We'll see overinvestment in unproven business models in 2009, leading to another "bust" down the line.

4. Identity becomes the fulcrum of security issues.

5. Millions of new programmers will enter the software industry.

6. Switch to web platform from client-server will start to take off

7. The iPhone goes Enterprise.

8. Corporate issued laptop model will be challenged.

9. Virtual Desktops grow beyond a niche.

10. IaaS Cloud Providers are no longer just for web startups.

11. Netbooks drive Servers, Clouds and Linux clients.

Craig Scroggie, Predictions 2009 on Search Storage

1. Windows Server 2008 Drives Upgrade, Compatibility Efforts.

2. Microsoft Hyper-V Creates Competition.

3. Complexity Drives Backup Redesign Projects.

4. Backup Moves to Service Model – Limitations in IT resources drove some end users to use SaaS models for some technologies, such as backup, reducing the burden of dealing with purchasing, configuring, and maintaining and on -premises solution.

5. Data Center Energy Crisis.

6. Disaster Recovery Testing Still Lacking: Despite making improvements in disaster recovery planning efforts in 2008, organisations are still coming up short when testing those plans. According to Symantec’s 2008 Disaster Recovery result, respondents indicated that 30 percent of tests fail to meet recovery time objectives, with top reasons for failure including human error and technology.

7. Thin Provisioning for Reclaiming Storage.

8. Economy Impacts IT Priorities.

9. Protecting and Managing Virtual Machines Comes Together.

Stephen Herrod, Top 10 Predictions for Virtualization in 2009 on VMblog

1. Virtualization of the Enterprise Desktop Breaks Out.

2. Storage Becomes Truly Virtualization-Aware.

3. Virtualization of High-End Applications Becomes Mainstream.

4. Orchestration of Virtualization across Datacenters Arrives.

5. Networking Becomes Fully Virtualization-Aware.

6. Virtualization Arrives in Smart Phones.

7. Virtualization-Focused Security Solutions Becomes More Common.

8. Management Tools Increase Focus on the Virtual Datacenter.

9. Requirements of Green Datacenters Drives Virtualization Further.

10. Cloud Providers Utilize Virtualization for More Open, Compatible Offerings.

Websense Security Labs 2009 Predictions on Websense

1. The “Cloud” will increasingly be used for malicious purposes

2. An increased use ofRIAs like Flash and Google Gears for malicious purposes

3. Attackers take advantage of the programmable Web

4. A significant rise in Web spam and malicious posting of content into blogs, user-forums and social networks

5. Attackers will move to a distributed model of controlling botnets and hosting malcode

6. A continued siege against Web site with “good” reputations

H.G. Lee, Looking ahead at security trends for 2009 on Insight & Passion

1. Traditional antivirus, anti-spyware, and firewall software to merge with endpoint operations, data loss prevention, and full-disk encryption.

2. More emphasis on cybersecurity..

3. Increasingly stringent privacy legislation.

4. Security in the cloud: a strong year for managed security services.

5. Better security tools for things like role-based access control, virtual server identity management, virtual network security, and reporting/auditing.

6. Software companies to embrace secure software development efforts.

7. Organizations need to be able to discover and classify sensitive information, apply security policies, and then enforce these policies.

8. Encryption technologies are more often becoming "baked in" rather than "bolted on ".

9. Centralized entitlement management.

10. Business process securitywith detailed and succinct portals, reports, and auditing systems.

HARDWARE

Tim Bajarin, 8 Predictions for 2009 on Technology Pundits

1. Windows 7 will bring tech out of the doldrums.

2. The tech industry will be the first to recover.

3. The unemployed will start small businesses to survive - and will need PCs to make a living.

4. Netbook sales will double in 2009.

5. Smartphones will gain market share.

6. Android will expand its reach.

7. Apple market share in PCs and smartphones will grow.

8. Microsoft makes a play to purchase RIM.

N. Nagaraj, Tech trends and predictions on SmartBuy (added 2008-12-31)

1. Small form, big performance

2. More QWERTYs

3. As well as touch

4. Multi-tasking players

5. Cable trouble

6. Gain-drain; you will still not be able to get enough battery life

7. Or-kaput; the social networking space will lose its coolness

8. Safer surfing

9. Convergence in mobile phones, but special devices will be winners

CLEANTECH

Ted Samson, IT leaders share green-tech predictions for 2009 on InfoWorld

1. Green in the U.S. market related to IT will be replaced by e.g. energy equivalents.

2. The first generation of IP-based energy management applications will be released.

3. IT's consumption profiles will start to be measured under new criteria.

4. Energy efficiency to reduce watts per compute workload.

5. Datacenter blueprints will continue to evolve with aggressive virtualization.

6. Power management will be used to throttle down IT equipment when not in use.

7. High-temperature datacenters.

8. Collaboration will continue to drive progress forward through new standards, and open tools.

9. IT organizations investigating environmental regulation strategies and environmental impact skill sets.

10. Environmental sustainability projects that positively impact the bottom line in the short run will be moved to the front of the line.

11. The year of the green developer. Sloppy code is wasteful.

12. Competition will increase for the green cloud.

13. Energy efficiency in the datacenter will continue to be a big focus for IT departments.

14. PC vendors will purge their new wares of toxic chemicals.

15. IT shops will take the calculated risk of powering off at least some servers when they're not in use.

16. Adoption of PC power management software.

17. Scrutinizing the inefficiency of supply chains.

18. An industry-wide approach to dealing with e-waste.

19. PC environment to steal much of the green IT spotlight away from the datacenter.

Nicholas Parker, Nine clean technology predictions for 2009 on Cleantech.com

1. Energy efficiency infrastructure boom initiated

2. Global climate talks bog down—no serious deal until 2011/12

3. U.S. passes national RPS, but cap & trade bill on ly in 2010

4. Wind stocks come back; thin film PV shakeout

5. Clean technology VC stabilizes at $7B globally; PE more active

6. Failure rate of cleantech startups doubles

7. IT turns to the energy opportunity

8. R&D stagnates; corporates acquire green growth assets

9. Energy-water-food nexus emerges

Ed Ring, Greentech Predictions 2009 on Ecoworld (added 2008-12-31)

1. Energy efficiency infrastructure boom initiated

2. Global climate talks bog down—no serious deal until 2011/12

3. U.S. passes national RPS, but cap & trade bill only in 2010

4. Wind stocks come back; thin film PV shakeout

5. Clean technology VC stabilizes at $7B globally; Private Equity more active

6. Failure rate of cleantech startups doubles

7. IT turns to the energy opportunity

8. R&D stagnates; corporates acquire green growth assets

9. Energy-water-food nexus emerges

Preston Gralla, The Top Ten Predictions for Green IT in 2009 on Greenercomputing (added 2008-12-31)

1. The Economic Meltdown Sparks Green IT

2. Obama Gives Green IT a Big Boost

3. Green IT Pro Write their Own Tickets

4. Power Shortages Force Virtualization and Data Center Consolidation

5. CIOs Become CGOs (Chief Green Officers)

6. The Green Cloud Replaces Data Centers

7. Companies Look Beyond the Data Center for Green IT

8. Servers, Networking Gear, and other IT Equipment Get Green Ratings

9. Best Green Data Center Practices Become Standardized

10. Green Data Centers Go Modular

GLOBALIZATION

Donald A. DePalma et al., Globalization Technology, Services, and Business Models on Global Watchtower

1. Speech takes center stage as “the” multilingual issue.

2. Translation gets easier, but everyone struggles to find the money.

3. Machine translation enters corporations via high-value applications.

4. Google pulls more surprises out of its bag of translation tricks.

5. Language policy and international self-preservation fuel government interest in language.

Jonathan Gosier, 2009 Tech Predictions on Appfrica

1. Social Venture Acquisitions

2. Non-Obvious Hires

3. African Industry Boom

4. Cumulus Solutions for Developing Countries

5. Innovations in Water Technology

6. Software as a Service for NGOs

7. The Push for Local Content

8. Web Real World

FICTION

Lauren Davis, Science Fiction’s Predictions for the Year 2009 on io9.com (added 01-01-2009)

1. A Giant Monster Will Destroy New York (Cloverfield, 2008)

2. We Will Perfect Time Travel and Upload Our Consciousness to Computers (Freejack, 1992)

3. Artificial Intelligence Will Run Our Lives (Silver Hawk, 2004)

4. President Cheney Will Pass the Patriot Act III (Death of a President, 2006)

5. Americans Will Struggle Through a Post-Apocalyptic Existence (The Postman by David Brin, 1985)

6. The World Will Face Life Without Oil (We Were Warned: Tomorrow’s Oil Crisis, 2008)

7. America’s Computer Systems Will Be Destroyed (Dark Angel, 2000)

8. Humanity Will Go to War with an Alien Race (The Super Dimension Fortress Macross, 1982)

9. A New Conservative Party Will Displace the Democrats and Republicans (“From Our Point of View We Had Moved to the Left” by William Shunn, 1993)

10. Disaster Will Strike on a Commercial Spaceflight (Orbit by John J. Nance, 2006)

11. A Virus Will Kill 90% of Humanity (I Am Legend, 2007)

12. The British Government Will Begin Dismantling Public Freedom (Last Rights, 2005)

13. The Large Hadron Collider Will Cause All of Humanity to Experience a Flashforward (Flash Forward by Robert J. Sawyer, 1999)

14. Korea Nationalists Will Try to Change the Timeline (2009 – Lost Memories, 2002)

15. Earth Will Encounter Numerous Alien Threats (The Whoniverse, 2007/8)

My Prediction for 2009 on Geeklad (added 01-01-2009)

1. In December of 2009, there will be countless blog posts made about predictions for 2010.

FFWD TO HISTORY

Jeff Haynie, Technology predictions from 20 years ago on Jeffhaynie.us
Top 30 Failed Technology Predictions on Listverse

NOTES:

For last year's inventory of tech predictions see here and here.

All lists above have been - more or less - edited. They all deserve to be read in their original context.

This article will be updated until mid January.

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