Eye on India

The disenfranchised

Tue, 19 May 09 10:07:47 GMT

On the busy street in Bangalore where I live, I met Vasanthi and Sudhakar, two migrant workers in the city. I tried to tell their story in an oral postcard for CBC's show Dispatches, which was broadcast on May 18. You can hear it online at http://www.cbc.ca/dispatches.

The day belongs to the Indian voter

Sat, 16 May 09 19:44:47 GMT

The Indian electorate gave a historic mandate to the Congress and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Dr.Manmohan Singh has emerged as the only Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to return for a second term. There are many questions that arise, especially when we view this in light of the fractured, divisive politics that has been in place in the last several decades. It is not easy to deconstruct the mandate, but let me propose one idea. In many ways this a vote for the Congress, but it is also a vote for something more.

It is a vote for a coherent federal polity, and for a state that actively pursues redistributive politics and rural development as its main mandate. While the Congress has not yet fully delivered on these fronts, it has delivered some, especially when pressured by public action. Astutely, it ran a campaign on this platform of redistributive growth. Rahul Gandhi, expected to be the next Prime Minister, spelt out the critical need for rural development in a very controversial speech just before the elections. And people listened. They saw the possibility of a responsive government.

Now the Congress must deliver - but only continued and concerted public action can ensure that. This is where all collective social energies must now be directed. Much of this responsibility falls on elite, privileged, urban India, who, incidentally, did not even come out to vote. It is rural India, the distressed, marginalized India that came out to vote, as it always does. They have done what they could do. Now its time for the others to take on the task of delivering just development.

Will the politicization of the Sri Lankan tragedy pay off?

Wed, 13 May 09 08:53:32 GMT

The final phase of the election is today and all eyes are on Tamil Nadu, the state which may well decide the final outcome of the election. Every party in the fray have politicized the tragedy in Sri Lanka, sometimes going back and forth between their stated positions.

The frontrunner for Tamil Nadu Chief Minister is Jayalalitha, known better as Amma, literally mother (or rather the maternal equivalent of big daddy). Her position has been more or less consistent, until recently. She had always taken a stand against the Sri Lankan rebel group Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). As Chief Minister, in 2002, she had suggested that LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran should be tried in India, at least for having masterminded the assassination of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. Since last week, as the elections drew closer and closer, Amma has become a champion the Eelam cause. Jayalaitha went even so far as to say that she will secure an Eelam by military force.

This is what her manifesto said:

The AIADMK will call for immediate cessation of war in Sri Lanka and demand an immediate stop to genocide against the civilian Tamil population.

Tamils should be accorded equal status with the Sinhala majority, with devolution of administrative power in the Tamil-dominated provinces of Sri Lanka.

If these moves fail, then the AIADMK will press for a separate State of Eelam to ensure that Tamils in the Island live a life of dignity.

This strongly voiced commitment to the Eelam is believed to have left her major political opponent, the current Chief Minister, Karunanidhi, with a serious problem, because his distinction as a pro-Tamil politician has been destroyed. So Karunanidhi went on a fast, called Prabhakaran his friend, said he did not think the LTTE was a terrorist organization, retracted it, withdrew his fast and so on.

His party DMK is an ally of the Congress. The Congress high command watched in utter dismay as their ally in Tamil Nadu, already expected to do badly, was so blatantly opposing its position.The LTTE, remember, is banned in India since the assisination of Rajiv Gandhi, during his tenure as Prime Minister in 1991.

Sonia Gandhi, Chairman of the Party (and Rajiv's widow), and current Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh (also of Congress) both quickly and strongly reasserted their position which favoured guaranteeing equal rights of Tamils but not necessarily the Eelam. Very senior officials were rushed to Sri Lanka to 'extract a promise' from the government that civilians would be looked after. They strongly condemned the idea of sending an army into a sovereign state to institute a separatist solution.

Bottom line: Amma and Karunanidhi are arch rivals. Amma wants Karunanidhi's head on a platter. If the Congress can deliver that, i.e., they withdraw support for his government, she may well give her Tamil Nadu seats to them. The prediction at this point is that Amma has indeed got the math right, and things will work out just as she has intended. The Tamil cause is expected to serve her well.

My thought: what is that we, as an electorate, as ordinary citizens do, that makes politicians conclude that they can politicize each and every issue? Are no principled stands possible?

From poverty to war, everything is a poll issue. Else a non-issue.

Phase III of the Elections: low turnout as stalwarts fight

Thu, 30 Apr 09 10:29:27 GMT

Q. What is this Phase III?

A. The elections this time are being held in 5 phases. More details in my election primer.

Q. The numbers please...

144 million eligible voters

11 states

107 seats

1567 candidates

165,000 polling stations

Sweltering heat, 40-45 degrees.

Q. Important candidates?

The most important ones are Sonia Gandhi, the Congress party chairperson and Mr.LK Advani, the BJP stalwart and Prime Ministerial candidate. Also a stalwart of the Third Front Mr.Deve Gowda. The Third Front is an alliance of ten parties, including the Left and some key regional parties. They did very well in 2004, and emerged as 'kingmakers' to give Congress the number of seats it needed to form a government. A similar scenario may recur this time. In fact, since yesterday there is some talk about the possibility of the Third Front forming a government with support from the Congress! They have not declared a PM candidate as yet, but the left leader has said that he can consider the position, if the situation arises.

Q, Turnout?

So far quite low. The media is fixated on celebrity voters - Bollywood stars and corporate leaders who had apparently vowed to end their apathy in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. But voting is quite low. Apparently some have taken off for summer holidays and some others are watching the cricket tournament in South Africa, as a top model enlightened us on a TV channel.

FAQs: Indian Elections 2009

Thu, 23 Apr 09 19:25:21 GMT

Many thanks to those who have written to me asking for a 'primer' of sorts on the Indian elections. I should have thought of this before, my apologies. So here it is. First, the big numbers:

714260951 voters

1000 plus parties

5904 contestants

543 seats

828,804 polling booths

One month long schedule ...

Now some Q&A:

Why the one month long schedule?

Even though the numbers have been always been large, this is the first time that the polls are being conducted in five phases (April 16, 23, 30 and May 7 and 13). In some states, elections are held in different parts of the state on different days. Plus some states are also holding elections for the state legislative assemblies.

This staggering is prompted by secuirty concerns. The Election Commission and the Home Ministry together decided that staggering the polls would ensure better security arrangements for the pollimg process. There are 'external' threats which became a particular concern after the Mumbai attacks on 26/11, but there are also internal threats from groups such as the Naxalites. Indeed, Naxalite violence did result in the death of 19 people in the first phase of polling on April 16.

When will the results be known?

May 16, 2009

Are there really that many parties and candidates?

Yes. In each constituency, there are candidates from different parties (not all parties contest every seat). The results in the constituencies decide how many seats a party gets from each state. Then results from each of the 35 states are tallied to see which party has the most votes. The president then invites that party to form government.

How many seats does a party need to form a government?

272 seats are needed for a majority government. But in recent history no party has gotten majority. So we have had coalition governments - alliances in power. The party with the most seats then leads the alliance and stakes the Prime Ministerial candidate. Who else is in the cabinet depends a lot on the alliances that need to be brokered and what the allies want from the leading party as a price for their support.

Who are the main contenders in this election? (more details at this link)

1. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress Party: The alliance that is now in power. Right now, the predictions favor the ruling coalition slightly although the low turnout in some states may affect that. The UPA has also lost a lot of allies since the last elections in 2004. The most notable loss was the Left, their main ally in 2004. The main outcome of this alliance was the Common Minimum Program - a policy agenda that sought to balance the interests of the majority with the drive towards economic reforms. The Congress-Left MOU fell apart over the Indo-US nuclear deal in July 2008 (click here for a dossier on the deal here.)

The UPA`s Prime Ministerial candidate is Manmohan Singh, who is the current PM. By and large, the UPA campaigns on development and secularism, although this time there is much emphasis on security.

2. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The NDA lost the last election in a way that it had not anticipated. It is trying to make a comeback by riding the anti-incumbency mood. It has also lost many allies. The NDA`s Prime Ministerial candidate is L.K. Advani. It main plank is Hindutva, i.e. a vision of India for Hindus, as well as security. This time, there is less emphasis on Hindutva and more on security and `governance`.

3. The Third Front: An alliance of ten parties, including the Left and some key regional parties. They did very well in 2004, and emerged as 'kingmakers' to give Congress the number of seats it needed. A similar scenario may recur this time. In fact, since yesterday there is some talk about the possibility of the Third Front forming a government with support from the Congress! They have not declared a PM candidate as yet, but the left leader has said that he can consider the position, if the situation arises.

4. Mayawati, leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP): A critical development to watch is the rise of Mayawati, the current chief minister of India's largest state, Uttar Pradesh. Many believe that she has been the single greatest beneficiary of the standoff between the Left and Congress (click here for an interview with her biographer). Others have claimed that she is the closest to India's Obama. She hails from the Dalit (lower caste) community and after having practised caste politics to catapult her to power, her current politics calls for integration across caste lines and more focus on economic inequality. The latter does not, however, deter her from amassing immense wealth. Her assets are somewhere between 10-15 million USD - composed of land, gold, diamonds, art, property and cash. In recent years she has established a tradition of having opulent birthday parties financed by donations collected by forcibly by her party cadre.

Find out why Newsweek has called Mayawati the quintessential Anti-Obama.

I don`t agree with Newsweek. Mayawati is her own creed, neither Obama nor Anti-Obama.

How do candidates finance their campaigns in this highly competitive marketplace?

Massive private wealth is the key word in these elections. Read my post A democracy of multi-millionaires. Seven multimillionaires are contesting from one of the poorest regions of the country, known historically for the incidence of starvation. See also Times of India editorial from today The Affluent Society

So, what is the expected outcome of this utterly vast and complex rigmarole?

A hung parliament; many post-poll alliances and negotiations. Not very good for the voter, as the ultimate outcome becomes contingent on negotiations and not their preferences. It may take days and weeks to have a government.

What about exit polls and opinion polls?

The Election Commission has banned exit polls till the last phase of voting is over. Opinion polls could be published only until 48 hours before the beginning of the first phase of elections. Campaigning has to stop 48 hours prior to the elections are held in each phase.

The elections are big business for the bookies...

A whopping $3 billion are apparently at play. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is the favourite. The bookies are betting for 140 to 160 seats for the Congress and 120 to 140 seats for the BJP.

And, the issues...?

This is the 714 million vote question - where have all the issues gone? There is a deep fracture in the polity, with an ever-growing multiplicity of issues. What does that mean? I tried to talk about it in my piece "How is India?".

The turn out so far?

Average of 60 percent, with 69 percent in the state of Kerala, 68-72 percent in Andhra Pradesh and 80 percent in Tripura. The lowest is about 44 percent.

What next?

Three more phases on April 30, May 7 and May 13. Then results on May 16. And then....

Elections Phase 2 today: 195 million to cast their vote

Thu, 23 Apr 09 05:12:47 GMT

Number of parliamentary seats being contested today: 141

Number of states involved: 13

Total electorate: 195 million

Total candidates: 2041

Female candidates: 121

More data from the National Election Watch:

1. In phase 2, total no. of Candidates with Criminal Records = 288 (i.e. 17.63 % of 1633 candidates). In phase 1, there were 222 candidates with criminal records ( i.e 16% of 1425 candidates).

2. Most of the major political parties have fielded candidates with criminal records

3. Most states have candidates with criminal background contesting elections

4. There are 356 charges of heinous nature on the candidates

5. 288 multimillionaires (17.63% of the candidates) are contesting elections is phase 2. In Phase 1, there were 193.

143 million voted in Phase I. Average turnout was 60 percent. 19 people died in poll violence mostly in the Naxalite dominated areas. Last night, the Naxalites hijacked a local train taking 700 passengers hostage, who were later released unharmed.

Sri Lanka: When does this end?

Tue, 21 Apr 09 12:51:09 GMT

The deadline set by the Sri Lankan army has passed. Prabhakaran has not surrendered. 49,000 civilians have fled the so-called no-war zone. But 50,000 or so remain. And even if/when this gory tale comes to an end, there are no political solutions in sight.

The Red Cross only confirms what one might imagine is the case.

"Were you not working hard?"

Tue, 21 Apr 09 07:54:27 GMT

A story from the series "The Layoff Tales" on rediff.com

Is the tragedy in Sri Lanka a mere election issue for Indian politicians?

Sun, 19 Apr 09 17:15:33 GMT

In an interview to NDTV, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi has said that LTTE chief Prabhakaran "is his friend and is not a terrorist". Karunanidhi has also suggested severing all diplomatic ties with the Sri Lankan government unless there was a "permanent ceasefire".

Tamil Nadu, the state that is home to Indian Tamils, is about to go to polls on May 13. It is widely believed to be a critical state in deciding the next government.

The statement has created quite a furore - as Karunanidhi's party, the DMK, is an ally of the Congress. Congress's stance on the LTTE is unequivocal. LTTE is a banned terrorist organization in India(which assassinated Rajiv Gandhi, the Congress leader and former Prime Minister of India). The Congress leadership has however expressed its concerns for the humanitarian crisis, but has quickly distanced itself from Karunanidhi's stance.

Today, by the time I could upload his post, he had 'clarified' his stance.

The politics on this is contradictory and confusing. Just a few days ago, Karunanidhi's arch rival, Jayalalitha, accused him of supporting the Lanka government.

She began her campaign with a fast for the Tamil issue. She has appealed to the people of Tamil Nadu to teach him "a fitting lesson".

Earlier this month, yet a third political leader, Vaiko, had warned of a bloodbath if the LTTE Chief was harmed.

Why this sudden escalation of the issue on the campaign trail? I suspect it is because they are not able to gauge the electorate's mood and everyone wants to play safe. This morning the television channels are playing the truly unbearable images of the plight of Tamil civilians. Side by side, images - courtesy the Sril Lankan army - about the life of luxury Parabhakaran's children live. Not sure why we need to see this propaganda of the Sri Lankan state.

When I was in Chennai in March, I asked almost everyone I could as to whether this can be an election issue. With resounding unanimity, I was told that perhaps for about 10 percent it would be an issue to vote on. But with equally resounding unanimity, I was told that many feel deeply about the plight of the Tamils in Sri Lanka and blame both sides. Everyone hopes for a political solution, but are pessimistic about the possibilities.

Here is an article is from the February issue of Frontline.

More soon.

P.S. Here is also a piece I wrote on the political fracture that characterises the ongoing elections in India.

A rarity: common man seeks political office

Thu, 16 Apr 09 15:05:29 GMT