The Republic of Kos

And Then There Were Four

2019-12-11T20:44:00.004-08:00

First of all, congratulations to the Griz and Gargamels for advancing past the first round. Speck and Weiss - you each had solid seasons capped by late season runs that found you in the playoffs despite slow starts, knocking out early season favorites Hovan and Jay along the way. Job well done and credit to all in what was an exciting final week of the season and first round of the 2019 playoffs.

Since I didn't get a chance to do a season recap prior to the playoffs, I'd like to start there before moving on to the semifinals preview and predictions.

Following a fantastic draft, we had one of the more balanced seasons to date, with no clear front runner emerging after 13 weeks. Of everyone, Kurtz had perhaps the most consistent season, but he finished on a bit of a down streak, losing four of his final five games of the regular season. Regardless, the Griz had such a hot start that it didn't matter, as he clinched early and managed to squeak out a first round nail-biter victory over the Shmecktilians.

Bronson finished as the league's top seed and Regular Season Scoring Champion (credit). Despite significant regression to the mean from demi-god Patrick Mahomes (in part due to a number of minor injuries), Bronson still managed to put up a league-best 1889 points this season.

Let's put this regular season in context. The best way to do that is to examine the Total Points For vs. Total Points Against. Here's the comparison at the end of the regular season:

Only one team that finished the season with a winning record (and made the playoffs) had more points scored against them that they scored. That team? The Scrotox. Credit.

It's easier to unpack expressed in percentage terms:

Hovan actually had the worst of it, with the most points scored against him, but Garson finished off the worst simply by virtue of his team having a number of mind bogglingly terrible performances. I'm chalking it up as a statistical outlier - and by that I mean his entire season - as his team just didn't look that bad on paper. We know drafting Baker early was a mistake, but not one that couldn't be recovered from, especially with the #2 overall pick (Kamara) and the #12 pick (Chubb). Both finished top 12 at their positions, by the way. Indeed, drafting an RB early didn't seem to really pan out for anyone this year. The consensus top pick (Barkley - taken as a keeper at #4) finished the season outside the top 20 RBs. The team with the best RB in the league (McCaffrey - Spexico) was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Garson drafted RB-RB in rounds 1 and 2 and had the worst team in the league. Other notable first round RB picks Todd Gurley and Leveon Bell are no longer relevant after the first round of the playoffs. In fact, the only first round pick RB still alive at this point is Zeke, and the only other top tier RBs this season still relevant are Dalvin Cook (round 2) and Aaron Jones (round 4). Bronson made the playoffs despite Mixon's bust season, although he has had a resurgence of late. The takeaway?

The league is not won or lost in the first round of the draft.

I was considering compiling all of the league data from the past 6 or 7 seasons and presenting a summary of each team over the history of the league, but I've decided I'm going to hold that for next year's pre-draft welcome LM. I have looked at it and I think it's pretty interesting - you might be surprised at some of the results. However, I'd rather turn our attention to the present rather than dwell on the past.

The Semifinals have arrived.

Four teams. Three returning champions. One will emerge victorious.

Dr. Quinn's Strong Medicine (#1) vs. The Road to Gargamels (#5)

I can feel the hatred, the intensity, the medicine coarsening through my veins. I can hear the hiss of the tank as the Mels and the Meds prepare to face off for eternal glory.

The projected score is dead even: 141-141. Tells you everything you need to know.

The first order of business regards Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with a quad injury. There was some speckulation earlier this week that he wouldn't play, but that appears to be gone after he participated in full practice on Wednesday. Nonetheless, if his mobility is hampered, you would have to imagine that could hurt his value. The same can be said of the juggernaut across the way, as Mahomes has been dealing with his own injured hand. Either of these QBs could go ballistic. Neither is likely to lay an egg. At the end of the day, I think this is a bit of a wash. We'll know for sure tomorrow when Lamar takes the field in a MASSIVE fantasy game against the Jets.

Bronson was a clever little lad and swooped up Mostert, who has steadily been stealing touches from the other SF backs - one of whom Bronson has leaned on at points throughout the season. The committee approach usually slurps value, but SF runs the ball so often and so effectively that he's bound to score some points. The question is will he find the end zone. Mikey has a pretty clear edge at the RB position, so it will be interesting to see if Mostert can hold his own in such a pivotal moment. Carson should produce a large stat line - perhaps large enough to outperform Zeke.

This victory will be determined by the unpredictable WRs employed by each of these teams. I don't see either having a clear advantage over the other, as Odell has been pretty hit or miss. It appears that DJ Moore is the best of the bunch - I believe he's WR8 on the season - but you just never know with Carolina. I certainly don't trust anything about them.

Both teams have gigantic question marks at the flex regarding health. DJ Chark and Julio Jones both carry questionable designations, though Chark's circumstance is far more serious. Mikey managed to swoop up waiver wire darling Slayton, who is coming off a huge week against Philly. Should Chark not go, I imagine Mikey will default to him.

This is a true toss up between two former champs. May your medicine be strong and your tanks be full.

The Scrotox (#2) vs. Grizzly Simpatico (#3)

A gentleman's Battle, to be sure. A griz meets a Greek. We've been here before, Kurtz and I. It didn't end well for a Griz. This time, he looks to exact his revenge.

The gentleman's battle starts at the top, with two old timers. It's Brees vs. Brady. Simple as that. Both have excellent matchups, suggesting this could turn into a straight up shootout between us.

At RB, we've got two of the league's best. Aaron Jones (#4) and Dalvin Cook (#2). Let's call that even. At RB2, two extremely similar receiver backs are deployed: James White (filling in for the injured... everyone) and Tarik Cohen. White will slurp points from Brady, while Cohen has an intriguing matchup vs the Packers.

However, the true problem for The Scrotox in this matchup is the Michael Thomas issue. This essentially makes Kurtz the worst team for me to play at this point. If Brees has a big day, so does Thomas. Without Jared Cook out, that's likely to concentrate even more target share Thomas' way. This could be one of those 30-40 point outings for the former Buckeye. The silver lining: Deandre Hopkins. He's been a beast lately.

At WR2, Kurtz has a crazy advantage. With Mike Evans shut down for the season, you have to imagine Godwin's value skyrockets (not to mention he's the fucking handcuff for my top 5 WR who is now donezo). This really really plays to Kurtz' advantage, which is precisely why I've decided to gamble on the boom/bust rookie AJ Brown in Tennessee. Hopefully he can come close to replicating his 38 point explosion last week.

Jared Cook's health is a key factor to watch in anticipation of this semi-finals duel. I have Higby in my back pocket, however, and he's been awesome over the past two weeks. Still though, Kelce is on the other side of the ledger... so I will need solid production at TE to have a chance.

Flex is going to be interesting. We're both gambling on rookies (Metcalf and McLaurin). That's two former buckeyes Kurtz is rostering, FYI... Flip a coin.

The one thing that appears to be in my favor? Defense. The Ravens have been devastating opponents, and they pull the Jets, who are... not good. The Bills have Pitt this week, so it appears I will be a begrudging fan of the duck hunter this weekend. Gross.

The projection has me by a hair, but Kurtz seems to have a lot going in his favor IMO. May the best man win, senor Griz.

And there you have it my friends. Four teams remain. Two will face off for eternal glory. The losers will battle for the $450 third place consolation prize. Best of luck to all who remain.

May your scrotums be taught and smooth.

Cheers bitches.

-Kos

History Awaits

2019-11-27T16:13:00.003-08:00

History Awaits

To begin, I'd like to congratulate everyone on one of the most competitive seasons to date. I knew it was going to turn out like this after our draft, which I believe was the highest quality draft we've had to date. Clearly, we need to have Gargamels supplying all future drafts. I'm also fully in favor of the every-other-year destination draft format. I think that's the most realistic and best way to try and organize those moving forward.

Before we get too balls deep into playoff analysis, I'd like to take a moment and report back on the proposed changes outlined in the previous LM, "The Greek New Deal". I've pulled the results from our voting survey, and the results are pretty clear. With the exception of the horrible, obnoxious Matt Speck, who voted against all changes because he's a child (P.S. Speck's "win streak" includes victories with 105 and 119, hardly credit worthy), there is consensus that we're ready for some changes, and the consensus surrounding which changes should be implemented actually struck me as pretty incredible. Needless to say, there is a little variation on the exact nature of those changes, but we can see the results pretty clearly. I've reported them below.

On the proposed defensive scoring changes, we were all in agreement that we're going to adopt the system I suggested. I love it.

On the issue of removing the kicker and replacing that roster spot with a second flex, we passed that resolution with a vote of six to three. Starting next season, there will be no more kickers, and our bench will decrease from five to four with an IR slot. Love it.

On the issue of decreased QB scoring, changes are in order. It appears that everyone is in favor of increasing the yardage threshold, as well as removing the 300+ yard bonus. So both of those are obviously gone. In addition, the next highest voted on change - the one I personally wanted the most - was the option to decrease the completion/incompletion scoring from +1/-1 to +0.5/-0.5. Decreasing it to 0 also received two votes, suggesting a majority of the league wanted this scoring option revised, so +0.5/-0.5 wins with four votes. I absolutely love this. I think it'll bring QBs down to earth by a significant but not excessive margin, and I think the addition of the half point adds a really interesting nuance, and allows me to do a few things in the defensive scoring that will make that even better, such as having the tackle for a loss category also worth 0.5 points (which makes sense since sacks are worth a full point, and these are less valuable than a sack).

As for the big play bonuses, there were mixed results, so I'm going to split the difference. More were in favor of eliminating the 50+ yard bonus, so my proposal is that we'll include a bonus for 40+ yard TDs, but eliminate the 50+ yard bonus. I'm thinking we'll increase the bonus for 40+ from +1 to +2, since it seems the general sentiment is to continue rewarding big plays (which I get - it's fun to get those bonuses), but now the bonuses don't stack, which does create some ridiculous point totals. Combined with the elimination of the 300 yard bonus and the increased yardage threshold, I think having a single +2 point bonus for any TD pass over 40 yards is perfectly reasonable, and keeps our QB scoring slightly elevated relative to standard scoring leagues.

So there you have it. Defensive scoring revised, roster settings revised, QB scoring revised. Beautiful. Thanks for your votes and your participation in this, and I'm really excited to implement these changes next year. They're going to make this even more fun and competitive than it currently is. And if a majority doesn't like the changes after a full season, we'll change them back to what they were.

The Battles

Now that we've handled that matter of business, let's talk playoffs. We have a fairly complex scenario to unpack here, and that's the most important issue at hand. I'll go through each of the teams in the mix systematically.

The Captain Rons
Yes, Jay is in the playoff mix. It's a longshot, but he could get in if he wins his annual end of season dual against the Griz (no easy task, as the Grizzlies have been particularly frisky this season, digging through the trash and harassing campers). In addition to winning this week, Jay must also hope that Weiss and Baffoni both lose. If that scenario plays out, Jay will finish 6-7, tied with Baffoni and Weiss, and presumably win those tiebreakers to steal the sixth seed.

Meatballs and Sauce
Baffoni has a somewhat simple scenario relatively speaking: win and you're in. Not only would he be in, he'd most likely earn a first round bye. Somehow. Baffoni could end up with the sixth seed if Weiss also wins this week and Baffoni overtakes Weiss' 35 point advantage (i.e. Baffoni needs to outscore Weiss by 36).

The Raging Shmecktilians
Weiss will earn a playoff birth with a win this week. He could still make it in even if he loses, so long as Baffoni also loses and fails to outscore him by more than 35. The same scenario plays out in the event that both Weiss and Baffoni win to determine the Old World Champion, with the team with fewer points occupying the sixth seed.

The Scrotox
Baffoni, and Weiss will be rooting against me this week. A win for me is a guaranteed divisional crown. A loss and I can still get in, so long as Weiss also loses. If Weiss wins and I lose, I'll be out. It's that simple. Jay, on the other hand, will be rooting for me to defeat Baffoni, as he has a chance to jump Baffoni for that sixth seed, but is too far behind me in points to win that tiebreaker. Hail Scrotox.

Spexico & Gargamels
As much as I'd love to place importance on this matchup born of pure hatred, there is none. Both of these teams have clinched. Congratulations on a playoff birth to you both. Mikey, I hope you crush him. However, the New World Crown is far from determined, and Mikey is still in the mix...

Griz & Dr. Quinn
While both these teams have also clinched, the division and the coveted first round bye remains up for grabs. The most likely case scenario is that Bronson will win the division, but Kurtz can snag it with a win coupled with a loss by Bronson (Kurtz' fate rests in Hovan's hands). The same can be said vice versa. However, Mikey is one game back on back teams, and trails Kurtz by 65 points. In the unlikely scenario that both Bronson and Kurtz lose AND Mikey can outscore Kurtz by a margin of 65 or more, Mikey can steal the division crown. Speck is too far behind to have a shot at it, but Mikey can get in on a prayer.

That pretty much sums it up. Eight teams still in the picture headed into the final stretch. Rivalry week is here baby. The Battle of the Mediterranean, always the most important matchup of the season, delivers yet again. For the first time in league history, me or Weiss may miss the playoffs. Baffoni has been in the postseason for about six straight years (I believe - but I didn't fact check that one). He may also miss out. History will be made. The fabled Battle of Jerusalem is also of massive importance, as Jay and Weiss and Baffoni all have playoffs hopes riding on the outcome. Garson has been hot down the stretch, so this is far from a foregone conclusion. Jay and Kurtz are engaged in an epic dual of monumental proportions, both for Jay's playoff chances as well as Kurtz' divisional title hopes. Bronson and Hovan are locked in a heated battle as well, with the New World Crown hanging in the balance. The Battle of Hate: Mikey vs. Speck, is of minimal importance aside from bragging rights, but matters for the purposes of seeding and Mikey's hopes of a longshot New World Championship.

Finally, the scoring title is essentially a three team race, and while we all know this, here's a graph anyway:

See you in hell Bronson.

That's all that needs discussed this week my friends. Thank you all for what was probably our most engaged, active, and competitive season to date. Excellent job by all - we just keep getting better at this. Best of luck, happy Thanksgiving, and I'll report back with an analysis of the playoffs as well as some end of season statistics next week. Jay, Mikey, Hovan - see you at the brewery tonight baby!

Cheers motherfuckers!
-Kostas

The Greek New Deal

2019-11-13T10:55:00.001-08:00

Before we get to the good stuff, I'm going to make my first formal pitch here. But first, I need you all to take a moment and just for a few seconds, allow yourselves to be free of your preconceived notions. Relinquish the shackles of your personal biases and open your minds to the possibility that maybe - just maybe - there could be another way. A way that offers a little more fun, a little more opportunity, a little more dynamic of an environment to play in. Or at least the potential to try something new and stain our white bread lives with supernatural ketchup.

When was the last time you really truly tried something new, with an open mind like you used to have back in your younger days? There is a well documented phenomenon in marketing called "attitude crystallization". Back in the 80's and 90's, in an effort to develop more effective advertisements, marketing scholars were really interested in studying consumer's attitudes towards brands and products, so there was this explosion in the literature on attitudes (it was also really well funded by the big companies, so a lot of cognitive psychologists jumped ship and became business scholars).

One really important feature of an attitude is that although they are relatively stable, they can - and do - change in response to persuasive messaging. In fact, we measure persuasion by measuring people's attitudes toward a focal object both before and after we present them with a stimuli (usually a persuasive message, like an advertisement). The degree to which the attitude changes is indicative of how persuasive the message is. As the research on the subject piled up, some scholars uncovered this phenomena they labeled attitude crystallization. What they found was that our attitudes are relatively fluid up until a certain point in our lives, at which point they crystallize and we become really difficult to convince that we may like something different than the thing we've decided we already like. Hence, people become frustratingly brand loyal once their attitudes crystallize. The reason is pragmatic - there is psychological risk associated with switching. It can cause us pain and inconvenience. Over time, we become averse to this risk. Why should I try this new style of fancy craft beer? I like my Busch light - it's easy to drink and I know I won't shit my pants after I drink 17 of them. As our attitudes crystallize, we become more and more narrow minded, and somewhat incapable of trying and actually liking new things. Ever try to get an old person to listen to new music? Sure, they'll listen, but more often than not they've already decided ahead of time that it's not their thing. That's attitude crystallization. And guess when it tends to really set in?

You guessed it - mid to late 30's.

Let's free ourselves from that restrictive mentality and grant ourselves permission to once more experience the exuberance we once enjoyed in our younger days by opening our minds to new possibilities. I mean, I remember when Baffoni haaaaated Phish until we went on a road trip and he suddenly requested Billy Breathes, and as a result, how many fantastic memories do we now have together because of that shared joy and passion, including his goddamn wedding? Can you imagine that stubborn old Taurus doing the same today? Unless of course it involves a ingesting a new variety of animal flesh, in which case, game on.

I have been creating gaming environments since I was in middle school, meticulously planning and building imaginary worlds as a dungeon master. I've hosted murder mystery dinners. I've created countless games and different competitions I use in my classes. I constantly revise them, constantly change them, constantly look for opportunities to make them better, more engaging, more fun. Some things work, some things don't, but the key to improving any system, organization, or even yourself is to be accepting of the fact that it's ok to fail. Really, it's not that terrible.

The beauty of games is that you can always go back to the older version if the new one isn't as fun.

So I'm asking that you just trust me on this one. I've been discussing the issue with other league managers I respect, analyzing the numbers, bouncing ideas off of people, and listening to the objections raised by all of you. I understand the desire to maintain some consistency and to keep the fantasy game representative of the real game to some extent. I'm trying to incorporate all of that into a series of coherent, modest updates to our league that I believe will improve the competitive quality, inject some much needed freshness, and most importantly, reward those teams that put in the most effort. The whole justification for the legal daily fantasy industry was that it is a game of skill rather than a game of chance, so let's move toward the skill side of the spectrum and decrease the chance. If you want to bet on coin flips, just get Mikey blackout drunk. It's a lot of fun if you've never tried it.

Because I feel like a naive young progressive in this swamp of cynicism and competing interests, I am calling this proposal...

The Greek New Deal

I'll keep it simple for now, and then move on to the more important stuff.

1. Improve defensive scoring

I've given up on eliminating defenses altogether, and after multiple side texts with a number of you, I get the feeling that as a league, we're ready for some moderate updates. Specifically, I want to decrease the wild swings caused by points lost for opposing scores, and make defenses more reflective of where we actually draft them. They should be a little less impactful than the top tier skill positions (RB/WR), and the off days shouldn't feel as painful as they currently do. Part of that feeling is related to the emotional effect of having a position that loses points instead of gains them. Defenses, like all other positions, should start at zero and earn points over the course of the game.

I got this idea from a Reddit thread originally, but it's been updated since then here: You Deserve Better D/ST Scoring (2019 Update)

The idea is predicated on the notion that it sucks to watch the points decrease; it's way more rewarding to watch them go up (just like every other position). However, you have to add negative points so that D/ST isn't weighted more heavily than other skill positions (so we aren't compelled to draft defenses in early rounds, unless we're either insane or Jay). ng

In addition - and this is an important point - I arbitrarily adjusted the ESPN standard scoring when I first created this league 10 years ago to inflate defensive scoring differentials intentionally. Keep this in mind - these are changes to a scoring system I just made up years ago without any real frame of reference. I've come to hate this archaic system I created, and now I'm stuck with it because it's become the status quo in this league and y'all hate changes in policy as much as a congressman from Mississippi. But the standard starting point is 10 points (we start at 20): 5 for 0 points allowed and 5 for 0 yards allowed (I nixed yardage before we ever started). In this revised system, your defense starts with 0 just like every other position and earns points as your defense does stuff. This system also offers some fresh scoring categories as well, including tackles for a loss (stuffs, which is running plays resulting in negative yards, minus sacks), passes deflected, as well as a new tier for yards allowed. My logic is that this will add new flavor and interest to the position, making it more fun to watch your defense because there are more scoring opportunities on every play.

Proposed changes are in red font. New scoring categories are highlighted. For your reference, I've included a column with the ESPN standard scoring settings as a comparison.

Scoring Category	Standard Scoring	Old Scoring	New Scoring
Interception TD	6	6	6
Fumble TD	6	6	6
Kick return TD	6	6	8
Punt return TD	6	6	8
Blocked punt/FG return TD	6	6	6
Blocked punt, PAT, or FG	2	3	3
Interception	2	2	2
Fumble Recovered	2	2	1
Fumble Forced	0	1	1
Sack	2	2	1
Safety	2	2	4
Stuff (TFL)	0	0	1
0 points allowed	5	20	0
1-6 points allowed	4	12	0
7-13 points allowed	3	8	-1
14-17 points allowed	1	4	-2
18-21 points allowed	0	0	-3
22-27 points allowed	0	-3	-4
28-34 points allowed	-1	-5	-5
35-45 points allowed	-3	-8	-6
46+ points allowed	-5	-12	-6
0-99 yards allowed	5	N/A	0
100-199 yards allowed	3	N/A	0
200-299 yards allowed	2	N/A	0
300-349 yards allowed	0	N/A	-1
350-399 yards allowed	-1	N/A	-1
400-449 yards allowed	-3	N/A	-2
450-499 yards allowed	-5	N/A	-2
500-549 yards allowed	-6	N/A	-3
550+ yards allowed	-7	N/A	-3

The nice thing about this revised structure is that it's based on the starting point being the average defense (using actual analytics), rather than our current system, which is totally arbitrary. The baseline is that the average defense surrenders about 300 yards per game (so we penalize surrendering more) and about 20 points (which is adjusted down slightly, because we need these to keep defenses in check and not have them consistently outscoring our top tier WRs and RBs). The result is a defensive scoring system that should be less impactful than skill positions like RB or WR, while being a little more predictable, and significantly less volatile than what we have now. And this way, we can keep defenses in the mix while still accomplishing my objectives. Because we're a PPR league with bonuses, I adjusted the suggested penalties from the article linked above because we do want our defenses to still score a lot. In fact, we want our defenses to put up projected point totals in line with what they typically do in our league, which is slightly more than standard ESPN PPR leagues. The overall impact should be relatively minor, meaning it doesn't change draft strategy. Instead, it just changes how we feel on Sunday's watching our more entertaining defense score more frequently and earn those points instead of lose them.

Vote for change #1.

2. Adjust the roster settings

I'm proposing that we change one roster spot to a second flex option. My reasoning is that I believe the more skill positions we put in circulation, the more dynamic the competitive landscape. It also thins out the waiver even more, making waiver acquisitions, draft strategy, and collusion even more important and therefore incentivized. My vote is to get rid of the kicker position, which is statistically irrelevant for fantasy purposes. I've made this argument extensively already, so I'm not going to beat a dead horse. But the kicker really doesn't make a difference. Whether or not you have the best kicker or the tenth best kicker right now averages out to a difference of about 1.5 points per week. That's pretty consistent with the historical data as well. In essence, you're betting on a coin flip.

It's not representative of skill, effort, or anything other than guessing correctly, if you're even guessing at all, which most of us are not because we just set a kicker and forget about it until their bye week.

2(b). Add the second flex slot, shrink the bench by one, but keep kickers because we're for some reason nostalgic about them.

3. Reduce the overall impact and disparity among QBs (The Mahomes Rule)

Finally, I'm proposing we decrease the overall impact of QBs. Bear in mind: Mahomes helped me win the league last year because of our QB scoring. As of the time I'm writing this, I have the second highest scoring QB in the league - Watson is the primary reason I'm leading the race for the scoring title. No one has benefited from our QB inflation more than me. Bottom line: I don't like it. It stifles competition. When we created the QB scoring - which Weiss and I did together (I remember the conversation we had) - we wanted to reward accuracy and punish inaccuracy, so we customized QBs to have the +1/-1 completion/incompletion statistics. I don't dislike this. However, it does two things. First, QBs that are having big games - and earning those big bonuses - are amplified even more. On the other end, when your QB is having a bad day, it exacerbates things. Thus we see the dreaded negative QB total from time to time. It's the only skill position that we punish, and the only one we ever really see go negative unless a player is injured early and commits a turnover on the play (a completely freak occurence). When your QB does occasionally have that shitty day, you lose. You have virtually no path to victory, especially if you're up against a Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Watson type QB who is having one of their pedestrian average 36 point games. It's too big of a hole to put teams in, and is the reason we see teams like Garson struggling so bad this season, or Jay or Speck in recent seasons past. Having the QB you drafted not work out shouldn't completely eliminate you from contention. Otherwise, we should all take QBs in the first round.

On the flip side, if your QB is throwing for 300+ yards, he's already having a really good day - I think that bonus is unnecessary, although admittedly the impact is probably marginal. The big play bonuses (40 and 50 yard TDs) are probably a better target if we really want to reign in QBs.

To be clear, this doesn't mean I don't like having QBs capable of scoring a ton of points, and be inflated in value relative to standard scoring leagues. I want that to remain. But I think we should bring it down to Earth and limit the downside, much like the philosophy behind the proposed defensive changes described above. I see two different ways to do this, but after crunching some numbers, I think it has to be either/or. If we implement all the changes, it will substantially reduce the overall QB scoring to a point where it would influence draft strategy, which I would prefer to avoid. There is a center ground, but it involves introducing 0.5's into our scoring, and knowing you fuckers, you'd probably spontaneously combust over something that dramatic. Regardless, we can implement some combination of the following:

Remove the 2 point bonus for 300+ passing yards
Increase the yardage per point from 20 to 25 yards
Remove bonuses for 40+ and 50+ yard TD passes
Eliminate the +1/-1 scoring for completions and incompletions
Adjust the +1/-1 scoring to reduce its negative impact by changing it to +0.5/-0.5

Reasonable???? I think so. You don't have to buy it right now, just think about it. Think about the value this could add. We can do it piecemeal too, but I think we're ready for some change.

To vote on these proposed rule changes, follow this link and take a minute to cast your votes.
https://utampa.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6W3TGYyCh0ZzGtL

OK I'm done with that. Let's get back to the current state of the league. The playoffs are approaching.

Week 11 Power Rankings

Griz
Scrotox
Medicine
Meat
Rons
Mikey
Speck/Weiss
Speck/Weiss
Hovan
Garson

We have three weeks remaining, and it is essentially down to eight teams. Due to a sudden two week losing streak from both Kurtz and Jay, both divisions are now wide open, with the top spot in the Old World a revolving door that's likely to continue changing until Week 13 concludes. I want to break it down by team.

Grizzly Simpatico
Kurtz can lose out and will still likely make the playoffs. He hasn't officially "clinched" - that's still not technically possible until next week because of how tight the middle of the league is. Regardless, it's a safe be that Kurtz is in at this point, so we'll roll with it. However, his concern is with the bye, and that rests firmly in this week's matchup with Bronson. A week 12 meeting with the weakest team sets Kurtz up nicely to claim the division and take a trip to a cool salmon stream for a week of rest in week 14.

Strong Meds
All that changes if Bronson knocks him off this week. Bronson has the edge in points, and would immediately jump Kurtz to the top spot with a win this week. Mahomes has the Chargers this week, who have been solid against opposing QBs and have a decent pass rush. So it's not a given that he's going off this week - Bronson will likely need his whole roster to perform in order to bring down the Griz. Yes, that means... Mixon. Him, Coleman, and Julio all have favorable matchups, and the Patriots defense has now had a week to rest and prepare for their trip to Philly. I think that ends up the deciding factor in this one - if we see that Patriots D go nuts again for 30+, Bronson will win this. Even so, he's got a rough one in week 12 against Baffoni, who's been pretty consistent since the Dark Alliance was formed. It's not an easy road ahead for Bronson, which is good news for the Griz.

The Mels
Mikey is coming off what was essentially a season saving win last week punctuated by a spectacular week from Lamar. Lamar Jackson is a legit fantasy stud and completely match-up proof. Mikey has to be liking his outlook right now. He's up against a Zero Dark that's got five guys on bye, including Russel Wilson and Saquon. Hovan will have a waiver scrub plugged in at RB2 next to Jordan Howard, who has the Patriots this week. Ouch. Meanwhile, Zeke draws one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Assuming the Mels can topple the shorthanded Hovan here, the playoff Road to Gargmels essentially runs through Weiss next week.

The Old World

The race for this division has suddenly blown wide open. Four teams are in neck and neck contention for the top seed, and it's probably the most exciting element of the league at this moment as the season enters its final phase. That could change in a heartbeat of course, but for now, having four teams competing for the first round bye and all having a really good shot at it is pretty awesome. The Captain Rons looked like the clear front-runner at mid season, but a combination of injuries and stacked bye weeks have depressed his scoring a little and cost him a few close matches. Nevertheless, Jay's chances are buoyed by his season long consistency and scoring output. He's currently fourth in the league in total points and leads Baffoni by 50. He should finish the season with a clear tiebreaker advantage over Weiss as well, due to The Shmeckels impotence early in the season. A welcome matchup with the lowly Funkateers awaits Jay this week, followed by a matchup against Hovan. That's a pretty favorable schedule, and bodes well for the Ron's chances of at least making the playoffs, possibly with a first round bye as well.

However, for the latter to happen, the juggernaut menace that is my scrotum must first be stopped. I have the tiebreaker on everyone right now, and a sizable enough lead over the rest of the division that its reasonable to believe I should close with the leading point total in the division. With Weiss on deck this week, the entire Old World will be watching the outcome of our match. Following my matchup with Weiss, I have Speck and Baffoni to close the season.

On the other end of that, The Shmeckel has been red hot these past few weeks, and will need that trend to continue if he is to make the playoffs. The first portion of the Shmeck's season was so weak that it seems very unlikely he'll have a tiebreaker advantage over anyone else in the division, so he just needs to keep winning. Period. Beating me this week would put him in a great position to make a run for the crown, but the matchup next week between Weiss and Mikey is shaping up to be a season-defining type of showdown that could land one of them in the playoffs and the other a lottery pick in next year's draft.

That's probably enough for this week. Three weeks remain my friends, it's time to get fucking serious. I will be dipping my sack in femjac in anticipation. Until Sunday...

Adieu.

-Your Lord and Savior Kos

Sauce, Playoffs, and Shiny Shiny Balls

2019-11-06T15:50:00.003-08:00

You can feel it

Deep down in there, somewhere in your loins, there's a sensation beginning to take form. It starts as a low buzzing, a murmur, a whisper that grows a bit louder with each passing week. With every flurry of league texts, with every cutting comment Baffoni makes about Weiss, with each week a Spexican rises, with every instance of the Griz moving closer and closer to a playoff clinch, the sensation intensifies. A Shmeckel goes from limp to aroused in a matter of seconds. The Road to Gargamels becomes increasingly clear, and a Greek begins to dominate once again....

The playoffs are in sight.

Yes my friends, the time draweth near. Only four matches separate us from the ultimate reckoning, from the critical stretch where the players come out to shine. The time where legends are made and we crown a tenth champion of this fabled league. These few weeks ahead present incredibly tumultuous times, as we see six teams on bye here in Week 10, several of them very relevant for fantasy purposes (New England, Philly, Houston, Washington, Denver, Jacksonville). Since the State of The League Address, some things remain relatively constant, while others have shifted the outlook of that which is to come in the weeks ahead. Perhaps most notably, we see a rise in the Old Guard of The League. The Old World has suddenly come to life once again. Well... except Garson. Both Baffoni and I have produced two consecutive solid fantasy outings, and the once depleted Shmeckel is once more full of life giving blood following a huge win and a high score in Week 9. The Cartel has new life, and with Mahomes and Tyreek back at it in the weeks to come, both him and the good Doctor stand to benefit from what is sure to be a barrage of big plays and bonus points.

With the impending return of several big fantasy names (Matt Ryan, Alvin Kamara, AJ Green), there are a ton of very interesting subplots within the league to look forward to over the next few weeks. I can't possibly cover them all, but I've pulled a few I consider particularly juicy and covered them in great detail here in this league message.

1. Can Hovan make a run?

Zero Dark has had an interesting season. He lost both Barkley and Brees early. However, he swooped up Russel Wilson and has had enough boom games from guys like Marvin Jones Jr. to keep him afloat in the meantime. Now Hovan is back to full strength, but despite these apparent successes and a solid output in terms of points, he sits at the bottom of the New World with a fairly dismal record of 3-6 following a heartbreaking loss to the Shmeck this past week. Most of this is simply due to tough luck - no team has more points scored against them thus far than Zero Dark Hovan. With the roster he has, it feels like Hovan should be a playoff team. As Baffoni says, "he deserves it".

Hovan has two top-tier QB options. Will he roll with MVP candidate Russel Wilson the rest of the way? Wilson is currently the top scoring player in the league, and appears essentially matchup proof. However, he has the 49'ers on MNF this week (which would be soooo entertaining should Hovan roster him) and a bye next week. In other words, he's probably not going to be the best option until possibly Week 12. Brees, on the other hand, is past his bye, and has the Falcons (at home), Buccaneers (@ TB), home against the Panthers, and a week 13 matchup against the Falcons in Atlanta in the final week of the fantasy regular season. That's an excellent fantasy schedule for Brees (gobble up Saints players, everyone). Is Russel Wilson therefore a nice trade target? If I were looking for an upgrade at QB, I'd be talking to Hovan, who basically needs to win out in order to make the playoffs.

The next big question here is Saquon, who has been less-than-what-you-would-expect of a consensus #1 pick prior to the start of the season. Barkley's bye is coming up, and Hovan's other options at RB aren't good enough (in my opinion) to feel confident about rattling off four straight fantasy wins with. I'd be looking to upgrade here - possibly via trading Wilson. Hovan is VERY strong at WR and TE, however, and of course he has the #1 kicker in the league. Anchored by the 49ers badass defense, Hovan is, in my opinion, one solid RB2 away from going on an epic, end-of-season run and making the playoffs.

His total point output puts him in the middle of the pack, so he's well positioned with respect to tiebreakers. That's crucial when you're not racing for the top seed, as the deciding factor on the 5th and 6th spots have been decided via tie breaker many times in the history of this league.

The stretch run for Hovan looks like this:

Week 10: The Spexican Cartel
Week 11: The Road to Gargamels
Week 12: The Captain Rons
Week 13: Strong Meds

The good thing is there is no matchup against the Griz, Meats, or Scrotox - currently the top three teams in the league. However, we've seen what Jay can do to teams when his Ron is on, Mahomes in Week 13 is less than ideal, and both the Mels and the Cartel can be problematic. As such, Hovan has an uphill climb ahead of him, but given everything discussed above, it can be done. Have faith Hovan. Just not too much faith in your kicker, because kickers suck.

2. Which division will reign supreme?

It's been fun (although admittedly not quite as fruitful as I'd hoped) to track the divisions this season. I love the new divisions. I think we split the teams up in a really interesting way while preserving several of our most important rivalries. Early on, it seemed as if the power was concentrated in the New World. However, as things have played out over nine weeks, it's fairly balanced. The Old World has accounted for 6,131 points (49.36%), while the New World has accounted for 6,289 points (50.63%). The difference is insignificant. As is the difference for the average weekly scoring, which failed to yield a significant difference in a simple 2-tailed independent sample T-test (p = 0.61). I've plotted the average by division on a weekly basis, and as you can see, the divisions have largely mirrored each other for the past few weeks.

So basically, not a lot to see here. No real bragging rights just yet.

3. The fate of The Mels

Mikey's season has been somewhat frustrating, hopeful, and yet unproductive from the perspective of producing a consistent string of wins. He's had some ups and downs with his QB scenario, hit a home run on Ekeler early but that's sort of flattened out, and otherwise has simply been a quiet, middle of the pack team. However, we know Mikey's strategy is typically to play the long game, to load up on depth at RB and play the waiver wire game hard in hopes of scoring some late season gems and then make a late run for a playoff spot. He's done it several years in a row now. This year, it all hinges on Lamar Jackson, specifically, his ability to devastate opponents on the ground. As you can see from the weekly plot below, Mikey's been very consistent week to week, with two bad outlier performances being the only real deviation from a consistent point production right around the league average.

The problem for Mikey is the ceiling appears to be relatively capped. Without the dynamism provided by a legit WR1 (Beckham is bothered by the pathetic situation in Cleveland's offense), and despite having top tier talent at RB (Zeke is currently sixth), QB (Lamar is also sixth), and two solid TEs, it appears Mikey's ceiling is inevitably capped by his two receivers: Beckham and Golladay. Both are capable of massive performances, but Odell has disappointed fantasy owners everywhere (he's currently 24th in our league among WRs). Golladay has been really good for his draft position; he's an ideal WR2 (currently WR11). Unfortunately, it appears Mikey's fate is tied to Cleveland. I just can't see him putting together a string of victories over the final phase of the season unless Odell emerges as a top 10 guy again, or Mikey executes a trade for a true WR1, which would enable him to deploy his solid RBs and rotate in either Golladay or Chark at FLEX. That's a lineup that would be truly scary. But who knows, perhaps all the chatter about Odell not getting enough targets will make it back to Baker and suddenly they'll start going to Odell a bit more. I can't imagine it would take a whole lot to bump that freak back into the top tier of fantasy receivers - at this time, he's probably the best WR in the NFL, and it's a fucking shame he's not being maximized by the factory of sadness in Cleveland.

4. The rise of The Cartel

He had the #1 draft pick. That has turned out to be a massive benefit, as McCaffrey currently leads all RBs with his 258 points. That's also more than Matt Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, and Carson Wentz. By comparison, Dalvin Cook has 213 points thus far - and McCaffrey has played one less game due to his bye! Insane. Could be the best year of fantasy RB production we've ever seen. And Baffoni was critical of that as a #1 pick... ha.

And yet, Speck's season has been marred by disappointment and injury. An unstable QB scenario plagued him early, although it seems Speck has settled on Goff, who has been ok for the most part (aside from that truly brutal -2 point performance against the 49'ers). But we can expect 30+ from Goff here in the stretch run of the season, so it will likely be up to the other pieces to help Spexico make a deep playoff run.

The good news? Speck has been rising. From week 5 on, The Cartel has faired pretty well, and he has some hope for the final phase of the season. That hope primarily comes in the form of a fully healthy KC offense, where we've seen the devastation that Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes can cause together. 40 point production from a WR is not uncommon under these circumstances. Just ask Baffoni - Tyreek had a huge role in winning him the scoring title last year. In addition, AJ Green is returning. Now sure, Cincinatti sucks and it's a toss up whether or not Green was a worthwhile stash, but the dude has been an elite fantasy WR in shitty offenses for pretty much his entire career. He could very well turn out to be a dynamite WR2/FLEX play for Speck moving forward (you have to imagine in PPR format, his floor should be rather high). Lindsay is an excellent RB2 option behind McCaffrey, and if Robinson and Witten both continue to produce for Speck, he could very well find himself in a great position to land at 5 or 6 seed. Currently at 4-5, his upcoming schedule features Hovan this week (that's a MASSIVE game for both teams... arguably the marquee this week), followed by another bruiser with Baffoni, then the Scrotox, and of course, a finale against Gargamels. Not an easy schedule by any stretch of the imagination, but if Tyreek and McCaffrey ball out as we probably should expect them to, and Goff is good enough, Speck can take 3 of 4 and sneak in. A loss to Hovan this week and he's still theoretically in the mix (Hovan is behind him in the standings), but he must beat at least two of the following three to stand a chance should he fall in week 10.

5. The Battle Looms

The Old World was built for a special type of hatred. Deep beneath the surface, it bubbles like a gastrointestinal messenger preparing one's spiritual self for a massive, filthy blast of explosive diarrhea. You know, the kind that splatters the porcelain in shotgun style, somehow managing to land on the underside of the toilet seat and form little beads of condensed shit liquid in the greasy hairs of our asses. The kind you need to shower after. That, my friends, is the true essence of The Dark Alliance. A putrid disgust that can not be easily distilled into the syntactical confines of modern language technology.

Every year, for all of eternity, we do battle, thee and me. You may have more dependents, but I have more fantasy points. You may have more wins, but I have more money. You may own your own solar powered home, but I have more debt - and I have absolutely no intention of paying it all back. I will most likely lose this week (I've got 5 players on bye and face The Rons), but starting next week I'm essentially at full strength the remainder of the season. What I need is a savior, a hero to bring you down in week 10. A Golden Shmeckel awaits you, flaccid at the moment, but within a few days of sobriety, erect and feisty as ever. One game separates the Scrotox and the Meat. The Rons will be right there as well, quietly observing, biding his time. But the battle awaits us, and something monumental will result. Either the division will be on the line, possibly the scoring title, possibly a playoff birth at all given how extremely close this season is shaping up to be.

As always, our hatred provides the foundation upon which this league has been built. And so it will always be. Credit.

-Kos

The State of The League

2019-10-23T22:11:00.004-07:00

The State of The League Address

Ten Year Anniversary Edition

Every year, this is one of my favorite LMs to write. A chance to reflect and take inventory of where we have been and where we might be headed. I think it's appropriate to do it right at the halfway point, when we're all still fully invested and no team has yet succumbed to the inevitable despair that often comes with a tragic season like Speck usually has. But even the Cartel is alive and well as of this post... alive and very well indeed.

As I've been preparing for our annual State of the League address, I've been wondering what should be the theme this season. It is, after all, our tenth year of the league, so it seems appropriate to do something with some sense of posteriority. After several days of thought, I thought that perhaps this year I would do something that involved an annual comparison. I don't know about the rest of you, but to me, this season just feels somewhat different than seasons past. I can't quite put my finger on it, but it feels more unpredictable, more... random. And provided that I've been making a stink about reducing excess variance, I thought it might be appropriate to provide some analysis here comparing this season to seasons past in terms of just that. Compared to seasons past, how much variance in scoring are we experiencing this season? This is the question that I will attempt to answer in this LM. I've also tossed in some additional historical treats for your pure analytical nerdiness to cheese out over (while I enjoy some Cheese myself this weekend at Hulaween - funny how despite being 35, I still geek out over festy prep. But the car is packed and we're ready to hit the road tomorrow, so time is of the essence when it comes to The State of The League). PS I don't even really like Cheese. All about that Nectar baby...

Season by Season Comparisons

Because I've kept such diligent records of scoring data over the past few years, perhaps the easiest thing for me to assess is simply scoring. This tells some of the story, but certainly not all of it. I did have to go back and fill in data from years past (thank you, ESPN, for holding our data from previous seasons), but it wasn't too much work to plug in entries that were missing. Only took me an hour or three.

The first thing I'll present is simply the average scoring on a weekly basis, by season. As you can see, last year was just wild. Most of that was driven by three teams: The Onslaught (with an historic season, I might add), Intergalactic Meatballs, and of course, The Shmeckel. This graph is actually a little inaccurate: the average score in 2018 was 146.

As you can see, this season comes in second (so far) in terms of outrageous scoring. That's been driven by some pretty intense outputs from The Rons (two weekly high scores), Zero Dark Hovan (two weekly high scores), and that insane week from Grizzly (230 points). It may be tempting to say that the NFL has simply become more offense-friendly over the years and that has translated to an increase in average fantasy output, but that's simply not true. If anything, 2017 and 2018 appear to be outliers (confirmed with simple statistical tests), and this season is simply on par with what we've seen in the past. Something else is clearly at play.

Perhaps the different vibe this year has to do with crazy high scores. I've analyzed this as well.

Some truth to this hypothesis, but again, I don't think it really tells the full story. Regardless, it raises an interesting question - when 2019 is over and we have a full season of data, will we see an average weekly high score that exceeds what we saw last year? It's certainly possible.

The next thing we can assess is the extent to which we are seeing scores cover a wide range. Certainly, this was the case last week. Our most consistent and steadfast team in the league this season in terms of statistical output is the Rons. Until last week, Jay had not dipped below 140 points. That's just absurd to have five straight weeks in excess of the league average. And he did it with two high scores (185 and 174). And then last week... 62. It wasn't because of major injuries or anything predictably random, it just... was. Certainly, if we can say anything about this year, it's that it has been full of wild scoring swings. No clear front-runner has truly emerged; not like last year, when there was pretty clear dominance. The only exception has been Kurtz, but the Griz has only been averaging 146 per week thus far. Compare that to what we saw last year, where I averaged 162, The Schmeck averaged almost 165, and the Meats averaged an absurd 169 points per week (the next highest team was The Meds at 140). So it's not so much that we're seeing some sort of consistency that can be expected, with a clear group of teams driving up the average or commanding all the talent. Instead, we're seeing a wider spread. In fact, my hypothesis (a priori, of course) was that it was the variance - the breadth of the distribution of scoring - that characterized this season. Now fortunately, I've been interested in variance for years. Having gone back and calculated it in seasons past, I had access to this information. With a little statistical shoe leather (for the reference, see Freedman, 1991, otherwise fuck off), I was able to calculate and compare the standard deviation of scores for each week for every season since 2014. And this is what it looks like:

Now you see my point. If I had data on low scores (I don't track shittiness - that's more Spexican than my Greek blood is capable of), it'd be even more apparent, but I'm not about to retroactively manually update six years of data with low scores just to display it graphically. This year, the distribution of scores is wider than ever. I thought about how I might be able to best represent it in a picture, so I tried a few things and even though I hate them, I think the old box plot works best:

This season feels so fucking different because the distribution of scores is bigger than we've ever seen. Not only that, but notice the skew. Granted, we have a paucity of observations here and we're looking at a distribution of distributions (I could plot the distribution of scores from each season, but that might be overwhelming to compare that many distributions), but the takeaway is this: you can exceed the average and that means absolutely nothing. In years past, that was a good formula for success. This season, chaos reigns.

What's to blame for this mayhem? I have my theories, but I've yet to assemble the right data to support them empirically. I'll share them nonetheless.

It's our scoring system. First and foremost that relates to QBs. Now piss and moan all you want, you conservative fuckers, but no team has benefited more from our QB scoring system over the past two seasons than me. I had the top scoring player in our league last year and I've got the #3 scoring player in our league this year. So for me to call it out while I'm reaping the benefits (albeit not in terms of what matters - W's) tells you all you need to hear. We've got to reign it in a bit and level the playing field. Teams like the Funkateers and the Mels - who have pretty solid rosters - shouldn't be at a season long disadvantage simply due to the fact that they didn't draft a top 5 QB. If that were the case, we should all draft QBs in the first round. But we don't. The second issue is our ridiculous defensive scoring, which needs to be reformed as well.

The downside to these broad sweeping, progressive reforms is they render analyses such as those I've just presented somewhat meaningless, as the next decade of the league will be judged on a very different standard than the past. But I believe we could use a fresh injection in our collective scrotum. It's been a while since we changed anything. No one has been banned. No scoring has been adjusted since 2014 (I believe). Our roster composition has not changed. Bench has not changed. The only substantive change we've had in recent years was the adjustment we made to our keeper draft rules, which I believe made for a much more interesting and equitable draft scenario. Just imagine if I had been allowed to keep Mahomes with my 16th pick in this draft while also keeping Zeke as a second round pick (where I originally drafted him in 2016). That'd be stupid, especially after I just won a championship. Which, by the way, I love the moderate change to the draft lottery of having the four non-playoff teams automatically granted a top 4 pick. Credit to Baffoni for that suggestion. We're keeping that. Perhaps that is the reason for the massive shakeup we're experiencing this year.

None of this is to say I don't welcome the shift in power this year. I love seeing Jay and Kurtz as the top two teams. Neither has earned a payout in years, and considering the price tag this league carries, everyone needs to take home a slice every now and then to keep us all coming back to the same casino and dumping our financial loads into the slot machine like Baffoni dumps his grimy Italian seed into his wife. There's a reason these things are programmed to pay out every once in a while (the slot machines, not Tawny - we'll leave her uterus out of this... for now). But I do want to try and make this game that is inherently chaotic and full of uncertainty a bit less random. That's not to say the excellence of the Patriots defense this year is at all random - they're winning people weekly matchups all over the fantasy world. Rather, it's the negative scoring from top tier defenses, the fact that you can deploy a solid fantasy D against a shitty opponent and still end up with -3 for no good reason at all. That shit is stupid, and it has plagued this league for too long. We need to fix it.

Alright I'm done with making the case for reforms. I'm sounding more annoying than Bernie Sanders with a plate full of socialist cocaine. Let's take a look at what is certain, what is to come for each team in the weeks ahead.

Starting in the New World, things are a bit more clear. The Griz enjoys a very healthy lead over his rivals, with a solid two games of separation between him and the next in line (currently Bronson). I don't expect this dynamic to change (there's a high gini coefficient in the New World). Why, you ask, why good commish do you shit upon our hopes and dreams of retaking the New World from the Grizzly Empire? Well, there are two reasons. The first has to do with Tom Brady. No, he is not the best player in the league, and having him does not give Kurtz a substantial advantage over those of Desean Watson or Dak Prescott or Matt Ryan owners. But his schedule sure looks nice. With the exception of his bye in week 10 (don't forget Kurtz has Rodgers in his pocket), he's got Cle > Baltimore > Philly > Dallas > Houston coming up. That's not bad. Add in the Bills Defense - currently #6 in the league. Take a look at that schedule (Philly > Washington > Cleveland > Miami > Denver). None of those offenses are particularly terrifying. Kurtz just needs to hope that his role players hang tough and he should not have much trouble maintaining at least a playoff spot. Remember, in years past, the magic number has been seven. Kurtz already has six.

Over here in the Old World, things are a bit different. Cracks have begun to show in The Captain Rons armor. Matt Ryan is questionable for the coming week. So is David Johnson. Adams has been sidelined. Meanwhile, The Scrotox is quietly on the rise (despite the record), and the matchups this week work in my favor (especially considering Mikey has key players on bye). After the Great Trade of The Dark Alliance, the Meat has started smelling a bit more foul as well. Austin Hooper is quietly the best TE in fantasy. And we all know the Schmeckel and the Funkateers, with their natural tendencies for deal making and "chosen people" status, are not going away either. Only one win separates four of the five teams in the Old World.

Five teams are 3-4. Three teams are 4-3. Everyone is very much so still alive and well as we round the corner into the second half of the season. Collusion is a must (although I find it interesting the the number of moves is so incredibly negatively correlated with standings).

And so we usher in the best part of the season my friends. The homestretch awaits us just on the horizon. We have but a few more crucial bye weeks to get through. This week marks the final week of the cross divisional scheduling - from Week 9 on, we're primarily engaged in divisional matchups. It's time to bring the hate. With that, I'll sign off knowing that the State of the League - while far from perfect - is alive and well.

Until the next one...

Cheers bitches.

-Dr. Kos

Credit: With Fur

2019-10-09T22:45:00.002-07:00

There are times when scrutiny is deserved, when hatred is appropriate. And then there are times when, whether we like it or not, we must give credit. It's not at all like giving thanks, but it has a similar musk. It's nothing at all like giving head (although receiving credit is a form of verbal cunnilingus, but only on the receiving end), which can be messy and leave your throw blankets covered in femjac (or other forms of "jac"). But it is a social obligation to which we must attend, and therefore perhaps shares more in common with fellatio than it seems at first glance. And the time, my friends, for credit has arrived.

The first and perhaps most important round of credit goes to Grizzly Simpatico, seen above not at all intoxicated in 2009. Kurtz nearly shattered the all time league scoring record last week, and while those rare events of the 200+ point week always come with a lot of luck, they also involve some savvy decision making. A combination of draft strategy and wise roster management is the only thing that can put a team in position to have such a performance, and for that, credit. Grizzly Simpatico now sits atop the league as the only 4-1 team, and looks firmly in position to make a casual run to the playoffs, and possibly win the ever powerful New World Division. Aside from a dismal Week 4 that was as much an aberration as his massive Week 5, Griz has consistently outpaced the league average, and I expect that to continue (see graph below). I'm not going to lie - after week 3, I thought that Kurtz early season success was a bit on an outlier, and that he was going to come back to earth quickly. Week 4 confirmed that. But while I'm yet to crown him atop the power rankings, I see him as one of the key teams to beat moving forward this season.

So this is about the point where I was planning on going on an extended rant about the irrelevance of the kicker and team defense positions, using significant quantities of empirical data to support my argument for those positions to be abolished (or at least significantly reformed). I mean, let's be real - at the end of last season, the difference between the best kicker in the league and the 10th best kicker in the league amounted to a whopping 2.1 points per game. TWO POINTS PER GAME. Why the hell do we roster a position that it literally makes almost no difference who you plug in on a given week? Let's replace that with something fun. But I have decided to hold back on a full scale rant for now, as I don't want to upset Hovan on a Thursday morning in October. That seems wrong. There's Oktoberfests going on, there's pumpkin beer everywhere, Saquon looks like he'll be back on the field soon... I'll wait a few more weeks before bringing this argument back into the fold.

Instead, I'd like to administer some additional credit. The first recipient of that credit is The Strong Medicine. Look at that orange line above. Those last two weeks involved some uncharacteristically bad weeks for Mahomes, which is almost certain to change once he gets Tyreek back here in the next week or two. But it's not just Mahomes that makes Bronson so dangerous right now - it's also the Patriots D. They're arguably the best defense in the NFL (especially for fantasy purposes) - or at least top two - and they have a schedule that is borderline laughable in terms of how insanely easy they have had it (and will continue to have it in the foreseeable future - they play the Giants, Jets, and Browns over the next three weeks... yah). But in terms of fantasy points... it's not even close. And so this is an important point in my argument against this position: whereas with kickers, the lack of variance in average scoring makes the position irrelevant, the disparity in scoring makes the defense position incredibly uneven and inequitable. Nonetheless, Dr. Bronners Medicine is quite potent in this category. The Patriots defense currently has 158 points on the season (a weekly average of 31.6). The next best defense (Bears) have 93 (average = 18.6). That's a 13 point per week differential between the 1 and the 2 spot. Drop down to defense #5 (Bills), which is a fantastic defense to roster, and we're down to 75 points on the season. Less than half of what the Patriots have so far. So even though this team lacks a top 10 RB and only one WR in the top 10 (Julio is 7), Bronson needs only modest production in his key roster spots to put up really big numbers, or at least outpace the league average, which is the strongest predictor of victory. The Meds are a top three team at the moment.

The Rons also deserve a lot of credit, and are currently my #1 ranked team in the league. It's not for the ceiling this team has - it's the floor that makes them so solid and so dangerous. In essence, if you're not scoring 140+, you're probably going to lose to Jay, or at least that's been the story so far. The Captain Rons have yet to finish a week with less than 140 points, and are averaging exactly 160 pts/week (tied with Bronson). Matt Ryan is quietly the second best quarterback in fantasy. He possesses the #7 (David Johnson) and #10 (Derrick Henry) RBs in the league and the #2 defense (Bears). This week is huge for Jay, as he has multiple key players on bye and several others who's status is highly uncertain. A win would be massive for his pursuit of the Old World crown. Nonetheless, along with Kurtz and Bronson, he's one of the top teams in the league at the moment.

To all of these teams, credit. Before I proceed, insights on scoring from the Old World:

No credit to Baffoni (overrated). No team has fewer points against. Your sauce is bland and your meat is dry.

Hovan is on the cusp of credit. He certainly deserves credit for that massive 216 point explosion in Week 3, but once Brees and Barkley are back, it will be tough to keep this team at bay. He has survived their absences admirably. Also, only the Northside Funkateers have had more points scored against them than Hovan.

Gargamels is right there with the Scrotox in most categories. Middle of the pack teams here, both sit at 2-3 currently. Nothing to scrutinize, but no credit deserved either. Either team could easily jump to the tops of the ranks in a few weeks, but for now, it's looking very middle class.

No credit for Weiss. Nearly at the bottom of the league in scoring output, this is the worst we've seen the Shmecktilians perform in some time, and the usual collusion tactics are dulled by a lethargy we haven't seen in some time. What's to blame? I dare not Speckulate - we have a different league member whose duty that is. But I'm not fooled by the 3-2 record. No credit.

Some credit for the Speckulator, who has survived an 0-3 start and weathered the absence of his top pick at WR admirably. With Tyreek and Green both getting healthier by the day (heard Green may be back in Week 7, and Tyreek could play this week), Speck may suddenly jump from the bottom to the top thanks to The Great White Hope.

Garson, May The Funk Be With You. Nothing worse than having the lowest scoring output AND the most points against. The Baker Mayfield experiment has officially exploded, and while I admire the creativity with the QB streaming, a long term solution may have to be found via collusion. There are solid assets on this roster - it's a little surprising to see things get this bad.

And yet, hope remains on the horizon, as The Northside Funkateers are projected to defeat Baffoni this week in what is certain to be an incredibly important Old World showdown. Garson is so desperately in need of a win, and Baffoni is in a position where he could leap to the top of the division. The bye weeks are always interesting, and tend to be where we see the playing field level out after those crazy first few weeks.

While I have a lot of hope for Zero Dark Hovan for the latter half of the season, this week isn't the week I have it. With two key players occupying bench spots, streaming positions to fill voids created by byes severely limit Hovan's ability to compete, and he draws the wrath of the Griz this week, who very wisely swooped up the Cowboys D to punch in for the Bills D (on bye). Tyler Boyd figures to continue to be about as good a flex play as one can hope for considering he's currently the #1 option for the Bengals. Throw Kelsey, Brady, Michael Thomas, Godwin (talk about a draft value! He's the #1 WR in the league right now!!!!), and Aaron Jones... ugh.

I face a similar situation this week in another unfortunate matchup with Bronson. This should be a lot of fun, although I'll be hungover at the Vegas airport (assuming I make it) for the game, but it's KC vs. Houston. Mahomes vs. Watson. So that's fun and figures to be a shootout, so perhaps I'll finally get the opportunity to capitalize on the double dip I traded a bunch of value for. But the problem is that the Patriots D play the Giants, so they'll likely score 700 points and together with Mahomes, I'll be dead. My hopes are not high for this one.

The Shmecktilians looks to get Ronned this week in an incredibly important Old World showdown. Both teams are 3-2 and in a good position to make a run for the division, and this match will go a long way in that determination. Devonta Adams is a big question mark in this one, but I suspect this will be a close match. However, as I mentioned before, in order to win this, Weiss HAS to score points. Like, about 20 more than he's been averaging thus far.

Finally, last but not least, perhaps the most consequential match of the week involves one of the better rivalries this league has ever had. The Spexican and the Gargamel. Both teams are 2-3 and hoping to stay in the mix as the midseason slog unfolds. 3-3 feels a lot different than 2-4. 3-3 feels like "hey, I've got seven games to go and I'm right in this thing", whereas 2-4 feel like "Oh shit, I've only got seven games to go and I probably need to win five of them to make the playoffs". So yah, it's important. Let the hatred flow freely and heavily all weekend long, please.

That's it my friends. I hope you enjoyed this one - I'll likely take next week off in preparation for the State of the League Address following the Week 7 action. Until then,

Cheers bitches.
-kos (no titles until I have a winning record again)

Early Season Musings and Rankings

2019-09-25T07:40:00.000-07:00

Before we get started here, Mr. Mikes doing normal people things, for your entertainment:

So there you go.

Weeks 2 and 3 were your typical early season flurry of chaos. Mysterious players went off, many remnants of our fantasy past failed to meet our expectations for their future perfomances, and scores were all over the place. Of course, key injuries have already dramatically changed the structure of competition, and we're all figuring out how to make sense of the madness. Hopefully this analysis helps. That is the primary purpose of this LM. Sense-making and assistance.

It's always difficult to make assessments this early, but after three weeks of action, injuries, and consultations, we're starting to get a taste of this new league flavor here in our 10th season. Jay and Kurtz currently sit atop the divisions; I'm not sure I've ever said those words before. Weiss and Baffoni - perennial league powerhouses - look very vulnerable and in a state of uncertainty. Speck still sucks. Hovan has had a strange season, to say the least, but we'll get to him later. The story of the league is The Captain Rons and Grizzly Simpatico. And of course, Mahomes. So I'm just going to touch on each team and share some thoughts, and make some attempt to revise my rankings from last week. I'll change up the format on the next one, alright?

10. Spexico
Despite having the #1, #11, and #21 picks overall, Speck is 0-3 and has only scored 317 points total (106 pts/week). A lack of tradeable assets make it difficult for me to see a path forward that doesn't involve some quality waiver wire scores and injuries to key players that elevate current players on his roster's value. I mean he's got McCaffrey...

Here's the deal for Speck. He's got Tyreek Hill and AJ Green sittin on his bench injured. Those guys are both gonna play, but he's got to survive the next few weeks and at least squeeze out a couple wins in order to have a chance. Two straight victories and Speck is now 2-3, which is totally fine. But 0-5 is not. So how can he do that? Well, to start, he's gotta guess smart on streaming QBs (and get a little lucky). And he has to make a move that will bring him a high upside WR2/Flex option. Right now it's DK Metcalf at WR2 and Allen Robinson at flex. You gotta be able to do better than that to beat some of the heavy hitters in the league currently.

9. The Northside Funkateers
Here's the only question of relevance: if (or perhaps when) it's time to drop Baker. Here's his upcoming schedule: Wk 4 @ Baltimore; Wk 5 @ SF (defense has been very solid); Seattle; BYE; @ New England; @ Denver...

That's not a stretch I would expect a young QB with a terrible offensive to deliver consistent fantasy production within, even to the extent that I don't know that it's even worth rostering him. That's really all that's holding Garson back at this point; he's got a rock solid roster otherwise. Kamara and Chubb is one of the better RB1/2 punches in the league. Terry McLaurin very well may turn out to be one of the best waiver pickups of the year. Diggs has to step it up sooner or later, but much in the same way as Speck's roster, that WR2/Flex situation needs some boom. Hopefully DeSean Jackson heals up, cuz that'll bring some funk.

8. Meatballs & Sauce
Baffoni is 1-2 at the moment, and the situation seems to be getting more and more dire. He started the season with a huge week from Wentz, but things have cooled off a bit for the babes. Perhaps that trade we just executed will change things (I had to update this), but until we see it, we won't know. Regardless, much like many of the teams on this list, success hinges on consistency at QB, and Wentz hasn't come close to that Week 1 explosion. Now that Gurley has been added to the mix, perhaps as his production (possibly) increases as the season progresses, we'll see some consistent high scoring outputs with this roster. But until that happens, I've got Baffoni in the bottom three.

7. Gargamels
I had Mikey real high last week. I've cooled off on him for a couple reasons. First, Lamar Jackson temporarily came back to earth. Ekeler has also trended a little downward after starting the season looking like the next great white hope. But Mikey's team still remains particularly alluring in the sense that it's not really weak at any particular spot... but where is the consistent boom going to come from? Well, we still haven't seen a breakout Zeke game (though he's still averaging 17/week), so that's a source. But what's up with Josh Jacobs? I don't know what to make of this RB legion - I can't see the 3 RB scheme producing enough points to hang with some of these Mahomes days or Tom Brady days or Desean Watson days where these fuckers light up the scoreboard. I understand the QB scoring gripes, but to be fair, this is a team constructed based on depth, particularly at the RB. The question I have for Mikey is when are you going to sell one of those RBs, and at what price? Because there are some high value WRs on teams that need RBs (or will need one desperately sooner or later) who look a lot sexier in that flex spot than Marlon Mack. That's all I'm sayin.

6. The Raging Shmecktilians
Here's the thing. Weiss generally finds a way to collude himself back into the mix if he falls too far from the pack. And that very well may happen here soon. But as it stands, the Shmeck sits in third place in the Old World, and the questions are plentiful. Will Dak resume the type of high flying output we saw in weeks 1-2? Kerryon Johnson and Montgomery... question marks there. I think both will be OK, but who's bringin the big games (including Bell)? Haven't seen em yet. By the time I post this, hopefully Weiss has moved on from the Eagles 28th ranked fantasy defense. But this is still a really strong roster, with only one real hole left where Antonio Brown once farted. If and how Weiss can fill that void - that second option with an unlimited ceiling to pair with Amari will ultimately determine his fantasy fate.

5. Zero Dark Hovan
No team has a more uncertain future than Hovan's, as an onslaught of strange fortunes has befallen the Juan. Of course, you can't control Drew Brees going down - and there's no replacement for that. And of course you can't control losing a first round RB like that. But I don't get why Hovan would bail so hard on a fourth round draft pick like Sony Michel, who sure he's ultra frustrating because he's a Patriots RB and they're unpredictable as hell but like... one week in? Regardless, Hovan's instincts guide him in their own way, and often that place is a happy one. Saquon goes down but Philip Rivers saves the day (through his avatar, Keenan Allen, that Hovan uses to channel the essence of Philip without taking the hit of having to roster him), and Hovan clears 200. With Russell all he does is win Wilson. I love Rusell Wilson as Hovan's QB. Wilson, by the way, is now the #3 QB in fantasy scoring. Great bounce back week after losing Brees - but I'm wondering how Hovan holds it together through the bye weeks with all the injuries and a shortage of bench space. That's really going to test his roster management skills. Difficult decisions loom large for the Juan.

4. Scrotox
It has arrived. Confidence in this team. All it took was Mike Evans dominating a really good CB all day and Jamis Winston not throwing 4 interceptions to make it happen. I'm a little less comfortable with my RB situation now that I dealt Gurley, but Conner and Cook make for a very strong backfield, and the combination of Evans and Hopkins couldn't be better. If Houston's offense is having a big day, I'm going to dominate. But they're still vulnerable against heavy pass rush defenses, so I'm guessing this experiment will have it's ups and downs. My philosophy is always to mitigate that with steady production at TE, making calculated decisions with defense, and deploying the highest upside FLEX play possible that week. I lost a little depth in that trade, for sure, but I really like Robinson as a boom/bust option. I'll stash those Patriots RBs away for a rainy day for now, and am looking to trade away Fuller now that I have Hopkins (if anyone is interested in a big play, boom/bust type WR).

3. The Captain Rons
I'm splitting hairs up here at the top, where I think each of these three teams currently has a pretty good case for any of these spots, but I'm putting Jay at #3 for the time being. He's 2-1 and in second place in the total points category. 185, 140, 166. Those are the point totals for the first three weeks. It shouldn't be shocking either - Jay had arguably the best keeper duo (Devonta Adams + DJ) of the draft. Adams has been disappointing thus far, but Green Bay has also faced some pretty damn tough defenses (Chicago, Minnesota, Denver). Henry and DJ in the backfield set an incredibly high floor (especially with Henry's increased usage), and Evan Engram and the Bears defense provide really nice balance and consistency at volatile positions. I still think upgrades can be made at WR2/FLEX, but those are gambles we all take. So while this roster lacks a lot of flare, I expect it to continue to produce high fantasy scores on a week to week basis.

2. Strong Meds
Mahomes.

1. Grizzly Simpatico
3-0 start for Kurtz - that's real nice. Congrats on the early season success. Tom Brady has been Tom Brady, and that's good news for the Griz. He's going to need that to continue in order to hold this spot for long, however. Kurtz is third in points scored, but there are some concerns here. The Damien Williams experiment has yet to pay off, and injury has hampered that process. Kurtz currently has Aaron Jones and Frank Gore as his backfield. Gore has exceeded expectations, but I question how long that's going to hold. Jones is great, but we've yet to see consistent fantasy production there for a while now. So we'll have to wait and see how he's used going forward, but the potential is real. Michael Thomas value has to take a temporary hit, however, but thus far Kurtz is holding strong and as the only undefeated team in the league, deserves the top spot.

Looking Forward...
This week features several divisional matchups with serious implications, including the Battle of Jerusalem. That hatred has been brewing beneath the surface, getting stronger and stronger with each smartest jew comment... though despite its importance, particularly to Garson who really really doesn't want to start 0-4, is not the most consequential of the bunch. No, that match goes to me and Jay, who grapple for the lead spot in the Old World. Its Matt Ryan against the Titans D and Desean Watson against the Panthers D. That's a toss up. RBs are going to be close, though I like my matchups better. This should be a close, high scoring contest.

Elsewhere, Speck desperately looks to save himself from the death spiral he appears to be in. He pulls the banged up Zero Dark, so perhaps Speck can get back on track this week. The Mels and the Strong Meds square off for what could be the highest scoring matchup of the week. This is a test for each of these teams and has massive implications for the New World Order. If Mikey ever needed that breakout week from Zeke, this would be a good time for it with Mahomes in the house. And finally, Kurtz looks to keep the undefeated streak alive against Mr Meats, which appears to be a formidable challenge - one that may have just gotten a bit more deadly with the additions of Gurley, Sammy Watkins, and Lockett.

So here we are my friends. Three weeks behind us, ten more to go. May you all walk in the light and bath in the glory of the Kos.

Week 1: Revenge of the Meat and the Rise of the Rons

2019-09-12T06:47:00.001-07:00

We're back baby.

Great draft everyone. Love how that came together, LOVE how we didn't get a single photo, love that Jay vomited in an Uber. Gargamels for the win. Also, credit to Jaysus for the high score. Credit to Mikey, Weiss, and myself for clearing a grand on draft day accessories.

As I said on draft night, this looks like the most balanced distribution of talent across ten teams that I've seen in the history of this league. There are a lot of question marks, to be sure, but there are some very promising rosters out there. I've been trying to come up with a power ranking, but there are still too many question marks and it's just so damn early and we've seen so much change both in this league and in the NFL... we're going to have to wait and see how this shakes out. Instead, I thought I'd briefly touch on each roster and address what I see as their current strengths, weaknesses, and biggest question marks.

Scrotox
I'll start with myself. Feels right. Concerns with Gurley... somewhat. The guy still had 97 yards despite only 14 touches. At this point I'm hoping they gradually increase his workload as the season progresses. The bright side is Dalvin Cook, who looks like a legit workhorse and an absolute wrecking ball. Sammy Watkins may just turn out to be the best mid- late-round pick of the draft. Biggest question will be how Houston's offensive line holds up over the course of the season, which will dramatically affect Watson's value and risk factor.

Zero Dark Hovan
Having Saquon as your keeper sure is nice. This might be the strongest roster Hovan has had in years, with nice balance at WR (Juju & Keenan Allen), Drew Brees, and a stud RB1. The weakness I see is depth, particularly at RB. Ravens D looks real solid though, which combined with that big three of flex players should help carry Hovan to the playoffs this year. The biggest questions I see are at TE and RB2. Regardless, strong draft and a strong start for the newest member of The Children.

The Captain Rons
I don't wanna overhype Jay early in the season as I've done in seasons past. I feel like I've jinxed him and I just don't want to contribute to that. However, The Captain had a strong draft despite the fact that he was driving (two solid keepers sure helped), and I think Jay is in an extremely strong position. Another week of scoring output like that and we'll know if its for real or not. Obviously Derrick Henry isn't going to score 30+ every week, but he has legit RB1 potential and together with DJ, Jay could have the strongest backfield of the league. Engram should have a good season at TE (top 5 potential), and the duo of Davante Adams and Julian Edelman has an incredibly high floor. Add the Bears D to that... this team is really good. Weakness is at flex (great place to be weak), and the big question mark I see has to do with Matt Ryan. How bad is Atlanta actually going to be? And how much will that effect Matt Ryan from a fantasy perspective, if at all?

Grizzly Simpatico
Week one was a good one for the Griz, as we saw him overcome a 53 Mahomes day to walk away victorious over the good Doctor. A monster game from Tom Brady, who apparently doesn't age, and a typical day at the office for Michael Thomas (10 catches, 123 yards) and solid performances from D Williams and Josh Gordon were also good signs for Kurtz. Weakness here is certainly the RB position, as the Lesean McCoy addition may put a firm cap on D Will's ceiling. and Aaron Jones saw only 13 carries (some of that might be the fault of Chicago's defense). The question I have for the Griz is how he manages his two QB situation moving forward, as well as his RB rotation.

Meats and Sauces
I really don't like when Baffoni defeats me. Feels wrong, it feels... gross. Credit goes to where credit's due. Vikings D were huge. Hopkins was awesome (and the handcuff didn't help me). Baffoni's team has solid balance; there's no glaring weak spot. Where I see it is really at WR2/flex. Cooper Kupp is my big question mark here, as well as who Baffoni eventually settles on at TE. I can't imagine he'll continue to roster 3 of them all season, but who's it gonna be? Hooper looked solid in week one, but Atlanta looked awful and frankly I wouldn't feel great about starting any of them not named Julio. If Wentz continues to play like he did in week 1, however, Baffoni will dominate.

The Raging Shmecktilians
The double dip of Dak/Amari looked as fierce as they come in week 1, providing the shmeckel all the bloodflow needed to cruise to a raging victory over the wicked Spexican invasion. 79 points between the two of them (that's tough to overcome). Leveon Bell looked really good, but Emmanuel Sanders (and Denver in general) as well as Vance McDonald both looked weak. I don't expect that to continue necessarily, but WR2/TE will be Weiss' achilles this season. The biggest question mark I see for the Shmecktiles has to do with Kerryon Johnson. The kid has mad talent and Detroit is always an offensive team; will his production be both consistent and strong enough over the course of the season for Weiss to stick with him, or will the yearning for collusion lead to a deal that sends Kerryon somewhere else (or brings in a different RB2?)

Spexican Cartel
A tough week one loss to the Shmeck - I thought Speck was going to carry this home for a minute there. Regardless, there's a lot for Speck to be excited about this year, with the number one draft pick landing him fantasy monster Christian McCaffrey aka The Great White Hope. Devonta Freeman will almost certainly be better than that dismal week 1 performance, but the week point now that Tyreek is out for 5-6 weeks is certainly at WR. Speck either needs to make a deal or play it real smart in order to keep his season alive while Tyreek is sidelined. Fortunately, Allen Robinson looked really good and Speck has strong depth at RB as well. The biggest question mark I see here has to do with Goff. His fantasy value tends to be ebb and flow, so it'll be interesting to see if he starts the year slow and how that effects the Spexicans usage of the Goffense moving into the latter portion of the season. Also, shame for the lowest point total of week one (despite the #1 draft pick).

Dabs
Where's that new team name Garson? I thought we had one coming? Garson, much like our beloved Browns (upon whom Garson is rather dependent) had a shaky start to the season here. Baker was weak (behind a horrid performance by the Browns O line), Chubb was pedestrian, and Diggs was a nonfactor. That was enough to sink the kitten's ship, but the power of Kamara cannot be understated. The dude looks like the reincarnation of Barry Sanders, with more power and better hands. My favorite RB in the league right now. Garson does have a balanced lineup, complete with a strong TE and Defense, but may be a little thin on depth, particularly at WR. The biggest question mark here is obviously Baker Mayfield's fantasy value, which has to be high to justify his being drafted as the second QB off the board.

Dr Quinn
The Doc had a nice start to the season; unfortunately, it wasn't nice enough to stop a Griz. Mahomes is Mahomes, and with him, all things are possible. Mixon got hurt - he's currently considered day-to-day - and that seriously impacts Bronson's RB situation. Fortunately for him, Chris Carson looked excellent in the debut and figures to be a top 15, possibly top 10 RB on a weekly basis. If both those guys are locked and loaded, Bronson has no concerns. His WR1 & WR2 are ultra solid as well. Tight end is the likely weakness (though I do love me some OJ), but the biggest question I have regarding Bronson's team this season will be how he manages flex and D/ST. He has options, but picking the right play looks like it could be challenging.

The Road to Gargamels
Last but not least, Gargamel and his legion of RBs failed to notch the win, but still demonstrated a lot of promise for the remainder of the season. The strength of this team is most certainly its RB depth. Mikey has a bench consisting of four quality RB, and that's behind a starting duo of Josh Jacobs and Zeke. The weakness here is certainly the QB, which Mikey waited on drafting longer than anyone else in the league. His ability to stream QBs or orchestrate a quality trade will have massive implications on his fantasy relevance this season. The biggest question I have is how will he manage all these RBs and how good are his collusion chops?

That's it for team previews my friends. Week 2 ushers in our first divisional heavy matchups of the season with our new divisions. Me vs. The Smartest Jew. Grizz vs Spexico (The Children!) Hovan vs. Bronson (The Draft Controversy!) The Shmeckel and the Meats (go pick up your xmas present Weiss). And of course, the Rons and the Road to Gargamels. Big matchups that will help us begin to get a better feel for the divisional composition and who figures to be the dominant teams for the early portion of the season. Looking forward to a big bounce-back from Mike Evans tonight. Enjoy the games and I'll chat with y'all Sunday!

Turning the Corner: A Decade of The League

2019-08-22T08:11:00.002-07:00

Gentlemen,

We have arrived. The tenth season of the league. But while the wheel of time turns, and ages come and go, some things remain as they always have been. Nonetheless, we have a draft upon us. A tremendous celebration of a great many things. The Children now walk among us - with yet another on the way (and a Spexican at that #invasion). A new Baffoni will be named. A Mikey T celebrates yet another trip around the sun. A Mikes, engaged. A Phish plague awaits. Side note: I researched the most effective treatment for the plague and had Vanessa write me a precautionary prescription so if any of us get the plague - and dear God I hope we do - I will be ready for it. Have no fear. Much like the time Bronson and I went backpacking in the Elk range and I came down with a wee bit of gonnorrhea but had the foresight to pack a script of penicillin and boom cleared that shit right out the old urethra like it was nothing. Bacteria never sideline a Greek.

But I digress. For our present purposes, we celebrate our tenth year together. It is a great honor to host us in virtual friendship, even if many of us rarely interact in reality. In fact, most of us don't. And yet, without this league, many of these connections, these histories shared would fade into the annals of time, wilting like the autumn leaves. It is nothing more than a forum for interaction, a gentle garden in which we tend to our friendships and semi-publicly shame one another. An opportunity to escape the routine and the mundane in mutual love and mutual hate. So the fact that we're somehow, so many years in, despite so many miles and commitments and everything else that life shackles us with over time, somehow still able to get all ten of us together in the real world to do this is frankly incredible. With that, I thank you all for your ongoing commitment. I know it's a lot. In this league there is no such thing as low involvement. It doesn't go unnoticed or unappreciated. We co-create this experience together, and much like the maintaining of friendships over time and distance, that takes energy. It takes willingness. It takes love.

During my second year as a PhD student - a very challenging time, to say the least - I was stuck in the dark loneliness of suburban Northeast Ohio. This was long before the arrival of HiHO and the rebirth of Mikey T. Before the return of Jose. I had literally zero friends to spend my time with. I was living in my Dad's basement on a $23k annual stipend. It was dark, it was cold. I was logging 80-90 hours a week of hard studying, with my only real respite being an occasional Tinder date for some brutal, meaningless sex. And I was teaching an online course. It dawned on me then that my entire existence was being lived virtually. I dated online. I worked online. And my one and only form of social interaction - this league - was also online. But while the dating and the teaching online depressed me, it was this league that kept my spirits high and helped carry me through that difficult time. I may not have finished my doctorate if not for the league (or at least not at KSU - I was seriously considering transferring). That's the truth.

So in our tenth year, I think it's appropriate to recap a little history of the league. Take us on a little journey back in time. So here you have it...

The History of the League

2010: Victory or Consequence

We began our journey as an 8-team league consisting of me, Baffoni, Jay, Weiss, Hovan, Bronson, my dad, and awful Ian. Ian was promptly banned and replaced with my temporary roommate at the time, Blood Diamond. This first year featured Hovan's best regular season performance - he finished 10-3, followed closely by myself and Baffoni (both 8-5). The season ended with Baffoni riding Mike Vick, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe to a championship victory over the dominant RubberBandBalls.

It would be Baffoni's first - and only - championship. I finished third.

It will be your last, Baffoni.

2011: Big Papa's Little Mamas

We maintained the 8-team structure in our second year, but added Mikey T after Blood Diamond was forced out, in part for waking up every day screaming "FUUUUUCK MY LIIIIIIFE" at the top of his lungs and I eventually had to have a talk with him (actually I think he just ran out of money and moved back to OH). This began the era of my regular season dominance, which continues to this day (the Perineum Falcons finished 11-2 and won the scoring title back before we made that a thing). Baffoni followed his championship run with Big Papa's Black Attack, which failed miserably en route to a 1-12 record. Bronson also had a 1-12 record that season. Jay (aka Raleigh St Clair) had a great season, finishing second to DJ Sauce as Weiss claimed his first chip. Once again, I finished third despite regular season dominance.

2012: Tush McSquishums

Our third season marked the beginning of the modern era. Enter Garson, Speck, and Kurtz, our expansion teams (one of them replaced my dad, who never cared much for Baffoni's "homer" draft strategy, as he called it, of prioritizing Steelers players). The Dark Mikes Squished his way to yet another championship on the coattails of rookie sensation Russel Wilson (Matty Ice was his primary QB, but Wilson won him the chip) and the blackness of Dez Bryant and AP. Hovan had another excellent season, edging me out ever so slightly for the scoring title, but was again foiled in the finals, this time by Weiss. Once more, I finished third. That's three in a row.

2013: The House that Sauce Built

The best name the league has had in nine seasons. Finally, my Perineum Falcons claimed a title. This was the era where I just kept drafting or keeping Drew Brees year after year and Baffoni haaaaated it. I also had Demarco Murray, who led the NFL in rushing that season and won me a championship (ironically, I played craps with him the following year in Vegas and he won me even more money then, and I will forever be a Demarco Murray fan.) A few other things to note during this season:

I think this is really when the league matured. It was our first season of parity, where no team finished with more than nine wins and no team with fewer than four.
Garson emerged as a dominant force in the league, capturing a scoring title with his Calvin Johnson/Stafford double dip (I believe he had one of the highest double dips in league history this season, as documented in last years preseason LM).
I think this was also the first year we had legit divisions and started doing the playoff seeding in accordance (the divisions were "Hot" and "Sour")
Kurtz had that epic run where he snuck into the playoffs at 5-8 and made it all the way to finals until I eventually defeated him, one of the great Cinderella story performances in league history
Speck - aka Orlando's Revenge - emerged as a true threat, with his Peyton Manning/Demaryus Thomas double dip (year 1), nearly claiming a scoring title but failing to finish off Baffoni in the battle for third place

2014: The Greek Palace

This was our first destination draft: Vegas. Gotta love what's happening here, Weiss drinking, Kurtz diligently taking notes, Jay and Hovan keeping it reeeealll casual. At this point, the Love and Hate divisions were formed. Bronson (10-3) and I (11-2) absolutely dominated the regular season, him with Andrew Luck in that big breakout year and me with Drew Brees + Arian Foster in his heyday. Nonetheless, Mikey steamrolled me in the finals, a devastating 192-100 shmeckeling, en route to his first championship. This was despite a 6-7 regular season, placing him 5th in the Hate division (all Hate division teams made the playoffs this year... Only Bronson represented the Love). When I said Kurtz run in 2013 was "one of" the great Cinderella story performances in league history... this was the greatest. I believe Mikey had to win like 4 straight to finish the season and then win a tiebreaker in points over Kurtz to make the playoffs, which he just barely did. Epic shit. This was also the beginning of a long draught for several Love division teams, several of which persist to this day. I don't feel bad for any of you.

Weiss and I had the funniest 45 minutes of our lives. Hovan shed a tear at the Bellagio fountain. Baffoni made a dark pact with me, one that has neither been realized nor discussed since. And we feasted upon stone crab.

2015: One League to Rule Them All

Perhaps our most competitive season to date, this was also the year HiHO was born (conceptually). No team had more than nine wins or fewer than five. Mikey finished the year with his second consecutive championship - the one and only true repeat in league history - on the back of ODB and Julio Jones. His back-to-back title runs led us to change our keeper rules and restructure the way we did our drafts (remember, we used to do it the way that you sacrificed the pick your keeper was originally drafted at, which gave Mikey a massive draft advantage because ODB was a waiver wire acquisition). In essence, Mikey's aggressive waiver wire posture caused a massive structural change in the league. Credit. Baffoni finished second with a really weird team that was mostly the result of Antonio Brown and Aaron Rodgers, while Garson took third in what would be Megatron's final season of relevance. Hovan had a strong performance in 2015; his best finish since the old days.

This was also the year of what was probably our most raucous draft of debauchery: Vegas round 2: Speck's bachelor party. The volume of stories we could tell from this weekend is absurd. The Divorce. The Train chant. Baffoni drying out thousands of dollars in soaking wet cash. Jose offering to buy those girls drinks in the pool, getting denied, throwing his debit card at them (it sank) and disappearing only to emerge minutes later leading an entire conga line... for the sanctity of The Children, it's probably best I just stop there. However, it's fitting to share these images (shield their eyes), including what is my favorite picture of Matt Speck (Jose really stole the show this weekend, after I physically assaulted him the first night and he stayed up all night sitting in solemn silence by the window, offering an apology the following morning in the form of egg sandwiches for everyone. We also played the "slap me as hard as you can and I won't flinch" game):

Specktating

I'll never forget trying to manage this nightmare of an offline draft situation, soaring cuz the L, everything went wrong, I had Mikey on the phone most of the time trying to manage things, Weiss had Garson on the phone keeping him updated with whatever the hell was happening, Jose was in the corner being whipped by a belt everytime he spoke... what a disaster.

2016: One League to Rule Them All (again)

Despite Mikey and I finishing 9-4 and having a fiercely heated race for the top seed in the Hate division, this was the year of the Spexican Cartel. Despite drafting the biggest bust of the season Todd Gurley at #2, Matty Ice, AJ Green, and Shady McCoy carried him to the chip. Baffoni took third, with Weiss finishing second. This year was my worst finish in the history of the league (sixth), and marked yet another season of Hate division dominance, with all five teams once again making the playoffs. I believe this was the year that we drafted at noon following three straight nights of Phish (Baffoni's house), and most of us barely survived. Garson, you were there, I promise.

This was the year of my first Phish Vegas Halloween run, where I thought it would be a good idea to create a video style league message at 3:30 am on Saturday night, which I watched the next day and was just horrified by the idea of posting it to the internet, so I never did, but for the sake of posteriority and in honor of the Babes, here it is.

Clearly not firing on all cylinders.

2017: La Liga

The HiHO draft. Our first ever draft with everyone present. Oh wait, Bronson wasn't there and Sweet Pat drafted his team. How do you feel about that Hovan? We all know how this season turned out. Bronson rode the epic performance of Tom Brady and a devastating RB duo of Ingram and Gordon all the way to an 11-2 record and a championship. Mikey nearly had the scoring title (1818 points) yet finished only 6-7, a testament to the competitiveness of the league. I finished 10-3 but placed a modest fifth, with Garson taking second and Baffoni finishing third (Baffoni may have more third place finishes than anyone). Following his championship, the Spexican Cartel bottomed out with a 3-10 performance. Unfortunately, I don't have any photos from this draft, it was the dark age of my phone where I never backed it up for over a year and lost thousands of epic pics. Oh well. Good thing I have a terrible memory.

2018: The Doctors Office

It was recent. It was epic. It was summarized by a single word: Mahomes. Waiver wire fucking gold. I turned in the most dominant performance in league history, finishing 12-1 and running the gauntlet en route to my second championship, thanks to the infamous stat correction. We drafted remotely, most of us on a conference call or FaceTime, and it was actually an awesome draft that went incredibly smooth despite the fact that we drafted from four different states and multiple time zones. The Schmecktilians were born, ushering in a new era of Mikes, who finished second last year. Baffoni captured the scoring title, but ended up fourth in a loss to Bronson who snagged third.

A New Season Awaits

And with that, my friends, we are caught up. A brief annotated history of the league, as per Kurtz' request. A draft is just over the horizon, and many questions remain to be answered. For reference, the draft order is as follows:

Speck
Garson
Mikey
Hovan
Kurtz
Weiss
Kos
Jay
Bronson
Baffoni

Who will Garson and Mikey take at two and three? Enormous, incredibly consequential picks. Jay and Kurtz' keeper decisions loom large, as does Bronson's. It's safe to assume Hovan will keep Barkley; we know Baffoni is keeping Conner and Hopkins; and we know that Speck, myself, Mikey, and Weiss will not have keepers. I imagine Garson will go without keepers as well given his draft position. There is so much depth available in this draft, it should be both an epic party and an epic draft. I expect this season to be a highly competitive one; a welcome departure from the lopsided dominance of last year. New divisions are formed. A new schedule is in the making. New rivalries will emerge as the old world meets the new. Prepare yourselves my friends. See you all in a week.

Cheers bitches.

-Lord Commander and Reigning Champion Kos