First Class Mogul

The Trade Review You Didn't Ask For

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Tue, 29 Nov 2022 01:41:00 +0000

So, we had quite the stir yesterday in FCM, didn't we? Peter traded basically any and all prospects with a pulse in Washington's minors to Decker's Mets. At the outset, I thought it looked in pretty poor taste. It looked as-if Peter told Decker, "Just tell me who you like and I'll give them to you. All of them."

However, after perusing through each player, that's not the case at all. It certainly is an all-in offer from Washington and nearly clears them of any prospect with promise or hope (as well as next year's picks), but that doesn't mean that the Mets and Decker got away with stealing double-digit first round values. Let's take a look...

SP Jim Luper: Making the ascension to starter goes a long way in his value. As a reliever, I just don't really care too much about him. Sure he'd have a nice enough control/movement combo with some upside. However, as a reliever I don't see him as anything significantly more valuable than what I can find in the 3rd or 4th round. As a starter, I see a very good, reliable pitcher. I don't see an Ace (like some think). He's already jumped this year and is pre-window, so he's probably likely to be about 84/88 next Spring Training. He hasn't taken much of a peak hit when he's aged, so I can see him having two more years to develop. I could see him teasing 90s vitals, but upper 80s to low 90s control and movement just isn't quite Ace material in FCM.

Verdict: Mid 1st Value

SP Dusty Wilson: He has not jumped yet this season, is pre-window, and fell from a 93 peak to a 90 peak last off-season. So, I feel pretty good about saying he'll peak out at age 23. And that's just not enough time for his control to be good enough for the rotation. I'd liken him to my own Bret Ryskina - Good movement and mediocre control. Good enough for a MLB role and maybe even spot start, but not a guy that you'd want to rely on.

Verdict: Mid 3rd Value

SP Dave Blasingame: I totally get why Peter took him in the draft four seasons ago. He was 16 and who knows what kind of magic Mogul might work on him. Well, fast-forward to age 19 and his control still looks like complete shit. If a guy like this were in the draft, he'd undoubtedly fall very far and would be someone's unlucky auto-pick. Maybe the sanity checks save him and he starts seeing some real progress in control, but I still him praying his control gets to 70+ and he can be a bullpen piece for a few years.

Verdict: 4th Round Value

SP Daniel Cory: He has a pretty nice build. Also nice is that he's only dropped a few points when he's aged. He's already jumped this year and clearly still pre-window, however, I can see him still developing for another five or six years. It's tough to say exactly how good I think he'll be, but if you'd like his build as a 19-year-old pitcher, then I think it's tough not to like him a lot.

Verdict: Late 1st Value

OF T.J. Sear: It's a little intriguing that he hasn't jumped this year yet and only fell from a 94 to 93 peak last off-season, though I still have a hard time placing his value. I certainly don't see him sticking in CF, but I can see him having a bat that doesn't do any one thing great, but can do a little of everything.

Verdict: Mid 2nd Value

DH Jeff Harris: For a 78 overall, I'd expect him to look a lot better than he does. He looks like what I'd expect from a low 70s overall and it'd be great if he could actually play a position. I guess he could play 1B, but he doesn't look like enough of a threat there and could likely be easily replaced by someone better.

Verdict: 4th Round Value

C Marc Thibodeaux: I think he's a real prize prospect. A switch hitting catcher, who could start to see his contact distance itself from his power. He's also quite solid defensively. Some may like power from the catcher spot, but if he can hit for a high average, he'll still produce well in the batter's box.

Verdict: Mid 1st Value

1B Elmer Candalaria: He just had a jump for Decker! ... And I'm still not sold on him. I'm not seeing the power numbers that I'd like to see from a 1B and I question his contact. He's one of those very low K bats and I worry that he'll always be a guy who underperforms. But, he's still a lefty and even with four or five point aging drops, he should have a decent amount of time left to develop.

Verdict: Early 2nd Value

1B Gabriel Paneda: With his low contact and as drastic of splits that he has, you'd have a tough time getting me to buy into him being a 1st rounder. While he is very young (and you'd expect his power to develop), I seriously question whether his contact will be good enough for the rest of it to matter.

Verdict: Mid 2nd Value

OF Nat Hanson: It looks like he's already jumped for Decker! Though he doesn't possess that big time stolen base speed, he still has that prototypical CF build. His speed and defense will certainly be good enough to roam central and it's a no-brainer that his contact will shoot up there.

Verdict: Late 1st Value

IF Franklin Marshall: I get the love for his vroom, but his poor fielding concerns me (and yes, that considering what his speed will do for his opportunities) and that's probably why he fell as late as he did being a speedster. Personally, I'd slide him over to 2B, where he'll see less opportunities to boot. His speed and (likely) contact bat will still play well over there.

Verdict: Late 2nd Value

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So, all-in-all, here's what I figure Decker's haul value was:

1st Round: Five (Includes WAS 1st)

2nd Round: Four

3rd Round: Two (Includes WAS 2nd)

4th Round: Three (Includes WAS 3rd)

5th Round One (Includes WAS 4th)

So, out of 15 pieces, I think Decker got five good pieces, four solid ones, and then six pieces that no one should give a shit about. Nine valuable pieces sounds about right for two pre-arb under-25 players who have some elite vitals!

2107 FCM Top 200 Prospects

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Wed, 19 May 2021 18:43:00 +0000

01. Zack Hecht, SP

2107 Value: 84/89 | Drafted: 2102 (Red Sox) – 1st Round, 3rd Overall

Projected Build: 95 Con, 65 Pow, 96 Mov | FV: 65

This ranking and future value is 100% based on Hecht becoming a starter. It would be a tragedy to leave him in the bullpen. First off, his endurance is so close to crossing the line that it seems obvious. Secondly, being picked third overall should be for 200 innings, not ~60 innings. Lastly, he has a build that would be dynamite as in the rotation. Top notch control, movement, and ground ball rates are things to adore in the Mogul world. Put great infield defense behind him and he’ll be an annual contender for a Cy Young.

02. Ross Diller, SP

2107 Value: 87/94 | Drafted: 2103 (Mets) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 99 Con, 86 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 65

Diller is that prospect about to make a big impact in the majors. He has had a good progression since being drafted with a big jump in his development at 19 and steady increases since. His numbers in the minors have continued to get better as each year passes as well. However, he is not without some questions. His Homerun totals have been higher than they were in his Amateur stats, while they remain around one per 9 IP, it has been a bit higher than most would like to see. If it doesn’t become a problem in the majors, then he should be an Ace with a long career ahead of him.

03. Brian Woodworth, SP

2107 Value: 78/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Pirates) – 1st Round, 14th Overall

Projected Build: 95 Con, 85 Pow, 94 Mov | FV: 65

Woodworth projects to be terribly similar to our last prospect in Diller. While Woodworth projects to be slightly lower vital wise, there are some differences that might point to a career that could potentially have a few more bumps in it. But first, Woodworth has had a nice upward trending progression since he was drafted with a steady stair climb progression that is ideal for prospects. The problem with Woodworth is that the concerns of home runs being a issue have not gone away. If anything, they have gotten worse (as has his K:BB ratio). In his minor league experience so far, he has given up well over 1.5 HR/9 and his K:BB ratio is coming in at 2:1, which is down from the near 3:1 it had been prior. While it might be too early to tell, I don’t think Woodworth becomes the Ace you want and is outpitched by those prospects above him (potentially many that are yet to come on our list).

04. Marvin Wessel, SP

2107 Value: 88/93 | Drafted:Drafted: 2101 (Marlins) – 1st Round, 11th Overall

Projected Build: 93 Con, 79 Pow, 97 Mov | FV: 65

Wessel has been moved around quiet a bit since he was drafted, fortunately that has not had a negative effect on his development as it has continued to slowly increase to this point. We are on the verge of him only facing MLB batters from henceforth. His minor league numbers have been good, his homeruns are on the same level as Diller’s and his K:BB ratio has gotten steadily better each year to a near 3:1 level last season. While his build makes you want him to be a GB% pitcher, he is not and appears to have a good career ahead of him. The last step in his development will determine whether he becomes an Ace or a good #1 pitcher (and yes there is a difference).

05. Jason Archie, SP

2107 Value: 71/94 | Drafted: 2104 (Yankees) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 90 Con, 79 Pow, 98 Mov | FV:60

If Archie continues along his progression path then he should end up a special SP. He has yet to have that “big” jump year that could cement his status as one of the elites in the file. As we see with some prospects on this list his homerun numbers have increased in his transitions to MiLB, however they do seem to be pacing with the increase in IP, so there is not a lot of real concern there. His K:BB ratio has gone down quiet a bit, however with the possibility of him transitioning into a ground ball pitcher, then that won't be much of a concern long-term. All-in-all his stats have been poor, but he is only 20 turning 21 this May, so there is a great amount of upside with him. I would expect him to meet most (if not all of that upside) and settle nicely into the top of a rotation in a few years.

06. Perry Bradridge, SP

2107 Value: 82/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Rockies) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 74 Pow, 100 Mov | FV:60

Bradridge is a fast-climbing prospect that has been firing on all cylinders since being drafted and is just one step away from making his MLB debut. The concern with him to date has been a influx of home runs allowed this last season, giving up the gopher ball at a 1.37 HR/9 clip. While not super high, it’s potentially a bit on a concern for a GB pitcher. If that season was an outlier and he continues on his fast-paced progression, he will be not only in the MLB next season, but will potentially start it at the top of this very list.

07. Paul Brown, 1B

2107 Value: 86/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Orioles) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 75 Con, 100 Pow, 100 Eye | 67 Spd, 80 Def | FV: 60

Brown will always be compared to the player taken 11 picks after him in the 2105 draft (Joseph Aldridge). However, he was the first to become MLB ready and he should be seeing a steady dose of MLB pitching this year. His development has been steady to this point as he enters his peak window this year so this year, we shall see what we have in Brown. If he gets that last bump in this development, we get the perennial all-star Baltimore saw when they drafted him or if he becomes just another lefty mashing 1B.

08. Marc Micone, SP

2107 Value: 89/93 | Drafted: 2103 (Rockies) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 86 Pow, 93 Mov | FV: 60

Micone is a prospect that has had the inverse head and shoulders development, as in his age 21 season he looked horrible before rebounding to his previous track record. Micone is set for the MLB this year and ready to face MLB hitting on the one a week schedule. His last season was his best effort in not giving up to many homeruns as he gave up under 1.00 HR/9. However, previous years saw much higher totals, so we are wary on what kind of mark he will make on the MLB. His K:BB ratio has been steady at over 2:1 with some seasons pushing 3:1. He isn’t a power pitching build nor he is a GB build and without him having picked a lane, we are not sure how he plays out. If he gets one last good bump in his development then we expect a good #2 pitcher, if he stalls out at the end then we don’t expect much more than a #3/4 starter.

09. Ned Buncombe, SS

2107 Value: 81/90 | Drafted: 2103 (Diamondbacks) – 2nd Round, 39th Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 90 Pow, 81 Eye | 87 Spd 91 Def | | FV: 60

Buncombe is another guy who is ready to do nothing but face MLB pitching. His development path has been unique to say the least. After spending five years as a non-impact prospect, he is hitting a stair climb in the twilight of his prospect hood. While in his career window he gets a big boost to his power, which makes an incredibly unique SS. He has the potential to be a 20/20 guy with a gold glove defensive upside. The only concern you have with him is his health, which could end up having long term effects on his career longevity. Either way you are thrilled to have him as your SS who you get to play for a decade plus.

10. Aaron Capes, SP

2107 Value: 73/94 | Drafted: 2106 (Angels) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 90 Pow, 94 Mov | FV: 60

The only player drafted from the 2106draft to make the top ten is Capes. There is not a lot to review on him as he has not had a progression path set as of yet and could go one of a thousand different ways. His limited time in a farm system did not go as well as some have but he is only 17 so when you take that into account you clearly don’t worry about what he has produced to date. Time will tell more on this prospect than most of the others. Where he falls on the list next year will be the first marker to note.

11. Eduardo Fernandez, SP

2107 Value: 87/95 | Drafted: 2103 (Brewers) – 1st Round, 18th Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 80 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 60

It’s obvious that he’s a little overrated, but if he were rated something like 84/93 would you really like him? I think so. He should have top notch movement to go along with good control. His ground ball rate is a little low, even for a guy who’ll get into the low 80s for power, so it raises a concern if his home runs will indeed hurt him. However, with a build that he projects out having, it’s not a major concern and he should become a very effective pitcher.

12. Josh Olds, 2B

2107 Value: 77/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Padres) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 83 Pow, 91 Eye | 75 Spd, 90 Def | FV: 60

He has one of those sleeper builds. When you look at him right now, there’s nothing overly impressive. Both his contact and power are lagging behind his overall, but when you forecast what he’ll look like down the road, it’s a build that should be very productive. His top notch defense doesn’t hurt his case either. And sure, you’d love for him to be faster and can see how his low health could hinder him, but when he’s on the field he’ll be a dynamic bat and a reliable fielder.

13. Nick Varak, SP

2107 Value: 81/93 | Drafted: 2104 (Athletics) – 1st Round, 21st Overall

Projected Build: 92 Con, 82 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 60

Doug does a great job of taking pitchers that most of us scoff at on draft day and then getting them on the fast track to the majors. I have to assume that we did the same with Varak. He’s got a control build with a low GB%. That fits the bill of a player that you’d red flag. However, his projected build looks quite good (especially if his movement can at least get even with his control). He could arrive in the majors sometime this season or early next year. If he can keep the home runs in check, this might be a guy that we look back on as an arm that fell too far in the draft.

14. Santos Bortillo, SP

2107 Value: 78/90 | Drafted: 2101 (Tigers) – 2nd Round, 32nd Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 78 Pow, 100 Mov | FV: 60

I’ll be the first to call bullshit on his movement getting to 100. With Mogul’s sanity checks, it’ll be tough for it to get that high. Which likely means control or power could see a little bit more of a boost. All said, this looks like a pitcher who could put up Ace numbers. So, why is he only #14? His health is lower and that will likely keep him from regularly starting in all 32 games (if ever). He’s more likely to only start in around 25 games each year.

15. Joey White, SP

2107 Value: 82/88 | Drafted: 2102 (Nationals) – 3rd Round, 69th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 73 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 55

This is a peculiar ranking, but I think I can understand why he’s rated this high. For starters, the file doesn’t understand that he’s about to age over Spring Training. It also suggests that he should be a starter with higher endurance while at the same time it thinks he has good power due to being listed as a RP. However, there are still things to like about White. He hasn’t dropped much when he’s aged in the past, so he could have another two years to progress. He does have a pleasing build to go with a nice ground ball rate. Much like Hecht on BOS, this ranking hinges on him becoming a starter and reeling in 200 innings vs being left as a reliever.

16. James MacCammon, SP

2107 Value: 65/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 84 Con, 87 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 55

MacCammon has had an interesting progression so far. He took a dip in peak that was very promising, but took a large drop in overall after the draft. However, he got back on track for progression this season. Though his build might not be finalized yet, he looks like a power SP with more of his projection promises for him to be a movement monster. His minor league numbers are not ideal, his home runs this last full season were 1.08 per 9 (which is fine). It’s his poor K:BB ratio that is less than ideal, so it will be interesting to see what he can do this season. Overall, you like what you see out of him so far and he is progressing into a top of the rotation arm.

17. Dan Hoogaboom, SP

2107 Value: 82/93 | Drafted: 2101 (Padres) – 1st Round, 12th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 79 Pow, 100 Mov | FV: 55

Like already said, movement doesn’t develop quite what the projection file thinks due to sanity checks. Hoogaboom will still have fantastic movement and could see better than projected control with those sanity checks giving extra points away to different skills. He’s been tough to get a read on about home runs, but if he can keep them around 1.00 per 9, then he’ll be a very good starter.

18. Tommy Boutte, CF

2107 Value: 73/89 | Drafted: 2103 (Dodgers) – 3rd Round, 86th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 88 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 55

Boutte was a great pickup for Washington. I think he alone is more valuable than what was essentially traded to get him (DH Ron Charles). Boutte is fantastic in the field and will be more than adequate in the batter’s box. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his contact trending upward and seeing him in the top ten next year.

19. Jorge Rivera, CF

2107 Value: 77/90 | Drafted: 2103 (Twins) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 88 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 55

I think it’s interesting for Rivera to be ranked just behind Boutte. I think most would prefer Rivera, however Boutte may end up just as productive. However, that’s a discussion for a different time.

Rivera should have elite contact to go with great speed and elite defense. That sounds like a top ten prospect. However, he offers little power and even with his speed he cannot stretch many hits into doubles. That speed is also more useful on defense than the bases as he’s probably a ~30 steal candidate rather than a top 50+ steal threat. All said, he’s still quite impressive and will be a prized commodity.

20. Ross Entwistle, SP

2107 Value: 73/89 | Drafted: 2103 (Brewers) – 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 97 Mov | FV: 55

He has a great control-movement combo build and won’t be completely devoid of power. Being a lefty scares away a lot of people who would rather settle for a mediocre righty. Entwistle looks like he as the right balance of lower home runs, a good ground ball rate, and movement to keep batters of the base. He’s a keeper.

21. Tim Balmer, SP

2107 Value: 82/95 | Drafted: 2103 (Mariners) – 1st Round, 13th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 84 Pow, 93 Mov | FV: 55

Balmer has had a wonderful progression as he has developed with consistent jumps with one big one in this past season that has him set for a breakout. While his vitals and pitches have not been given the jumps one might like at 21, he still has a few years to grow. His superior stats in high school have somewhat continued in the MiLB system. His home runs have gone up, which could be an issue and his walks tend to be a bit high. If he can get them under control, you are looking at a top of the rotation arm.

22. Bob Ulriksen, SP

2107 Value: 80/94 | Drafted: 2104 (Yankees) – 1st Round, 10th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 70 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 55

Ulriksen has had a steady upward trending progression since he has been drafted which, if it continues, could make him a very good pitcher. He had very good high school stats and his numbers so far in the minors have been hot and cold. He isn’t giving up homeruns, but his OBA is quiet high and his WHIP is even higher. While none of this spells doom on him, he will need to get those under control to be the top end of the rotation arm that he could be. If he was put in front of a good defensive infield that might be all he needs to reach his full potential.

23. Matthew Toland, SP

2107 Value: 68/93 | Drafted: 2106 (Blue Jays) – 1st Round, 5th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 94 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 55

As we look at his career scouting, Toland has been progressing nicely. His peak is remaining constant and his overall is steadily increasing is a good sign. With only one season in the MiLB system at Single-A, his numbers in High school and college are superb for a power pitcher, whereas his first season in A-ball was not as good (it was not disheartening either). Power pitchers are feast or famine and it will be interesting to monitor which he turns into. He will either be a high end Ace, or a lowly long reliever on a rebuilder.

24. Mike Alexis, RF

2107 Value: 68/90 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 92 Con, 82 Pow, 82 Eye | 76 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 50

Alexis is a projectable outfielder who has the look of a 2-hole hitter. I do worry that his bat will be less than inspiring, but with vitals all above his overall and an arm to play RF there’s a lot to like about him. He should hit for a nice average and in the least hit for doubles power. With solid defense, he’ll be fine at either corner spot.

25. Ben Moore, RF

2107 Value: 74/92 | Drafted: 2105 (Mariners) – 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Projected Build: 86 Con, 84 Pow, 88 Eye | 74 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 50

He has one of those interesting do-a –little-bit-o-everything builds. He won’t wow you with any one skills at the plate, but he should hit for a decent average, a fair amount of power, and draw walks when he isn’t doing either of the former. With good enough defense at either corner spot, he should fit into an everyday role. Though, in the end, he’s a mzy prospect, so fuck that guy (he should be a 20-grade prospect).

2106 Chicago White Sox Prospects

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sat, 08 May 2021 01:14:00 +0000

I didn't explain much when I posted the Angels Top Prospects, so I'll give a little insight. I've tried projecting what the players should look like in our March 1 file and then how the rest of their development will play out. I've tried giving an honest assessment. Not all 90+ peaks will be great and not all low peaks will be bench/non-leverage bullpen pieces. The Future Value (FV) is also meant to be a tough grade. If you look at top prospect lists, good prospects get a 50 or 55 grade and 60+ grades are not handed out lightly. Here's an estimation of how they translate to FCM:

40 FV = Bench Player / Non-Leverage Bullpen Pitcher

45 FV = Possible Starter (Lineup or Rotation) / Adequate Bullpen Pitcher

50 FV = Adequate Lineup Player / Clear Rotation Pitcher

55 FV = Good Lineup Player / Mid-Rotation or Better Pitcher

60 FV = Great Lineup Player / Top of Rotation Pitcher

65 FV = Elite Player

70 FV = Generational Talent

If you noticed, there's no 80 FV listed. That's because those would be extremely rare. We've probably had only handful of players worthy of this grade in FCM's near 100 year history.

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Now, back to the White Sox list. It was asked of me to format a top prospects list, like I did with the Angels. It expanded into a collaboration of Wiguy's thoughts on his prospects along with my outside take. In the future, I may look to do this for the top 10 prospects of all of FCM.

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10. Frances Gine, RF/LF

2106 Value: 69/89 | Drafted: 2105 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 16th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 87 Pow, 93 Eye | 71 Spd, 79 Def | FV: 45

Gine was selected in the same draft class as Marc Toscanini, but has been slower to progress. While he still has time to develop, he’s currently lagging his classmate. His vitals suggest he should have more power than he’s displayed thus far. He projects as the White Sox LF of the future, but only time will tell if he’ll reach his ceiling or if he’s head for the label of a bust.

09. Bruce Marshall, RF

2106 Value: 86/90 | Drafted: 2102 (Giants) – 1st Round, 20th Overall

Projected Build: 90 Con, 79 Pow, 84 Eye | 86 Spd, 83 Def | FV: 45

Marshall was the centerpiece of the Castaneda trade. A recent jump makes him a viable piece, but just how good will depend on how much longer he has to develop. He does a lot of things alright, but doesn’t excel in any one area. He should be solid with the glove and projects as a bottom part of the lineup bat.

08. Marc Abrams, SP

2106 Value: 81/89 | Drafted: 2104 (Dodgers) – 1st Round, 8th Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 82 Pow, 85 Mov | FV: 50

Abrams was a target for the White Sox in the 2104 draft, but was selected just before their pick. So, when the chance to acquire him came around, the White Sox jumped on it. His GB% would ideally be higher, but he should have a productive career. He has the tools to be a successful, but needs his movement to shoot up (and quickly). Abrams could become a #2/3 starter, but his movement issues could also mean that he’s a bottom of the rotation arm.

07. Adam Gilling, SP

2106 Value: 81/89 | Drafted: 2105 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 18th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 70 Pow, 92 Mov | FV: 50

Gilling has a high GB rate and the profile of a control/movement guy, but for all he has going right the ball seems to leave the ballpark far too often. He has a chance to put the gopher balls behind him, because if he doesn’t keep it on the ground, hitters will elevate the ball. However, if he does, he could be a very good pitcher.

06. Josh Yacoub, 1B

2106 Value: 75/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Mariners) – 3rd Round, 76th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 96 Pow, 78 Eye | 68 Spd, 79 Def | FV: 50

Yacoub came to the White Sox organization via trade. Originally drafted by the Mariners, he’s a right-handed 1B, which limits some of his value (especially given his drastic splits). He has shown power, but where he tops out will dictate his value. His contact and eye will most likely lag behind and it will be his ability to hit righties that will decide whether he becomes an everyday player or is destined for the bad half of platoon city. Though, if the power reaches his projections, he could be great.

05. Craig Neves, DH/1B

2106 Value: 67/90 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 8th Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 94 Pow, 83 Eye | 69 Spd, 76 Def | FV: 50

Neves is a masher through and through and projects as a #4/5 hitter. Is he going to win a batting title? Probably not…Gold Glove? No way…However, he will hit the ball over the fence and drive in a lot of runners.

04. Mike Alexis, RF

2106 Value: 68/90| Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 83 Pow, 83 Eye | 76 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 50

Alexis is a projectable outfielder who has the look of a 2-hole hitter. With vitals all above his overall and an arm to play RF there’s a lot to like about the build of Mr. Alexis. His amateur stats suggest that he will hit for a high average with adequate power. His development will be something to watch, as a tweak to launch angle could unlock more power and send Alexis to stardom.

03. Josh Tuyet, 1B/LF

2106 Value: 75/89 | Drafted: 2104 (White Sox) – 2nd Round, 42nd Overall

Projected Build: 97 Con, 85 Pow, 80 Eye | 70 Spd, 79 Def | FV: 55

Tuyet is an advanced 19 year old, who can play 1B with an outside chance to play LF in a pinch. Don’t let his stature fool you, his contact should be high with a nice eye and some power to follow. He will probably never be the prototypical masher at 1B, but he’ll have a place in almost any lineup. His value is tied to what a team’s preference is at 1B and how he continues to develop, but he made his debut at AAA as one of the younger players in the league and should be on his way to the majors soon.

02. Marc Toscanini, LF/DH

2106 Value: 85/93 | Drafted: 2105 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 20th Overall

Projected Build: 97 Con, 88 Pow, 82 Eye | 67 Spd, 75 Def | FV: 55

Toscanini had a major jump recently and looks to be a good player. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired and there are players with more upside, he has a projectable bat with great contact, some power, and should be a fixture in the White Sox lineup whenever he makes his debut.

01. Russell Braythwayt, RF

2106 Value: 76/92 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 91 Pow, 90 Eye | 74 Spd, 86 Def | FV: 60

Braythwayt projects as a power hitting lefty with good defense. His plus power and eye should make him an OPS star. If the contact comes with, he has the look of a superstar. There is a lot of development left for this prospect and things can go awry, but the future looks bright for this young corner outfielder.

2106 Los Angeles Angels Top Prospects

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Tue, 04 May 2021 17:59:00 +0000

10. Luis Fornaris, RP

2106 Value: 61/79 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 3rd Round, 73rd Overall

Projected Build: 76 Con, 64 Pow, 79 Mov | FV: 40

His projected build is nothing impressive, but I think he can beat those projections. Reliever progression can do some interesting things, so I would not be surprised to see him with 80+ control and movement. Obviously, that’s the hope, but even if he stops at his projection, I’d still use him with that build.

09. Tim Widdicombe, SP

2106 Value: 71/82 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 3rd Round, 72nd Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 68 Pow, 87 Mov | FV: 45

His development has gone alright so far. There’s been nothing to get real excited about, but nothing to sour on him either. He’s clearly a movement build, but even with subpar control, I think he can be bottom of the rotation material if he can keep his home runs low.

08. Osmart Lenehan, RF

2106 Value: 72/87 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 2nd Round, 38th Overall

Projected Build: 87 Con, 81 Pow, 80 Eye | 70 Spd, 80 Def | FV: 45

Much like Widdicombe, Lenehan hasn’t done much to excite you (or disappoint you). He should end up with solid contact for sure. The question I have is where will his power wind up? It makes sense for his contact to widen the gap, but if his power can get to the mid 80s, I think he can be a solid corner outfield option.

07. Greg Howrigon, CF

2106 Value: 73/81 | Drafted: 2104 (Braves) – 2nd Round, 44th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 72 Pow, 80 Eye | 88 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 45

Clearly his speed carries his value, but will he be good enough to start? His bat looks to be decent at-best. However, he is a switch hitter and helps maximize his speed by walking to a solid clip. If he gets to those vitals, offensively, he’ll get a chance to start.

06. Brad Watkins, SS

2106 Value: 78/81 | Drafted: 2102 (Indians) – 2nd Round, 57th Overall

Projected Build: 74 Con, 74 Pow , 72 Eye | 79 Spd , 90 Def | FV: 50

His offense looks bleak and he’s not very fast. That’s something that might lead you to believe that he’s not starter worthy. However, as a lefty bat, he has +3 splits vs RHP and has elite range defensively. It’s true that he won’t be the prettiest SS in the league, but I think he’s a recipe for success in the Mogul world.

05. Jason Davenport, LF/RF

2106 Value: 73/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 2nd Round, 33rd Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 80 Pow, 83 Eye | 84 Spd, 84 Def | FV: 50

I took a chance on taking him so early in the second round. He had more of a contact build without great SB speed and had a less-than-ideal fielding vital. However, after seeing his first aging drop makes me think that I could have a very good one. I would not be surprised to see his contact shoot up there (possibly into the mid 90s). Maybe I’m dreaming, but even just low 90s contact with 80s power and eye to go along with 80s speed, range, and arm will make him a very reliable player.

04. Nelson Reinoso, 2B/SS

2106 Value: 76/87 | Drafted: 2103 (Expos) – 2nd Round, 52nd Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 79 Spd, 90 Def | FV: 50

I had been after Reinoso for awhile and was very pleased (and surprised) when I was able to reel him in last season. Despite projecting to have good contact, I do wonder just how productive he’ll be at the plate. I think he’ll be serviceable, but still underperform his upper 80s contact. His value is clearly in the field and, paired with Watkins, will make a great double play duo.

03. Manny Mezgar, C

2106 Value: 79/86 | Drafted: 2099 (Marlins) – 1st Round, 14th Overall

Projected Build: 87 Con, 76 Pow, 84 Eye | 69 Spd, 86 Def| FV: 55

With Aaron Jordan dealt, Mezgar finally has a clear path to play in 2107. I think he’ll carry the same type of production as Jordan in the batter’s box and behind the dish (.750 OPS, 30% CS). Being a lefty is another bonus as there’s a chance that his contact could develop to 90+ vs RHP and it creates a natural platoon.

02. James MacCammon, SP

2106 Value: 65/92 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 87 Pow, 90 Mov | FV: 55

Projection-wise, he seems to have taken a small step back. However, I know he has plenty of time to develop and that there’s time to look like the 85/90/90+ guy that he looked on draft day. Still, I think he’d be a guy who would be pretty attractive if he were draft eligible at 20 years old next season. It’s tough to convincingly say that he’ll be an Ace, but that kind of projected build has shown to be successful and he can reside as a #2 or #3 SP just fine.

01. Aaron Capes, SP

2106 Value: 73/93 | Drafted: 2106 (Angels) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 90 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 60

He took an incredible (and unexpected) jump this season. If he continues developing anywhere close to like he did in 2106, he could see time in the rotation by the end of 2109, if not 2108. He’s basically the left-handed build of MacCammon with a slightly better outlook and two years younger. While it’d be great if Capes had a better ground ball rate, I can’t be sad about the power + movement combo that he should possess.

Trading 202

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sun, 21 Feb 2021 16:18:00 +0000

This was originally (mostly) written way back in September of 2017. I intended to finish it and publish it, but for whatever reason, it got tossed under the rug. It's finally finished!

Way back when Andy first posted his "Trading 101" blog, I had always thought to expand from that and add more pointers of my own, but never got around to it. Then he posted the Trading 101 - Refresher, I finally have some of those ideas to build from. If "Trading 101" is a class, think of those as a more specialized class on the subject of point #5 (Context of Trades) from the previous class.

Though, first off I'd like to touch on point #2 (exchanging available/not available/interest lists) on Trading 101. This seems to be the most abused step in the process. I do not understand it, but there are some people who actually want their trade partner to make offers and put little-to-no effort in helping out.

It's mind boggling to me as to why they wouldn't want to peruse through a team's assets to see what actually interests them. It gets frustrating on the other end as well. Even in well-meaning offers, you're at the mercy of the return magically meeting their unknown expectations.

And sure, I get the instances where you're "open to ideas", but that's at least giving some feedback as to where you are on the expected return. When someone doesn't even tell you if they're looking for picks, cash, prospects, veterans, specific positions it does no one any good.

If you're unsure of their value, as Andy has said, ask around! Many of the FCM vets will have no problem telling you what they think and it's not just new GMs asking vet GMs, many of the FCM vets will ask each other opinions as well.

#5: Context of Trades

Leverage: If it's mid-season and your player is up for Free Agency (and isn't worthy of being re-signed), you don't have much leverage for value for just half a season. You aren't likely to get face value just because a guy is performing well or has good vitals. There are other factors in your leverage. The other factor of that mid-season trade is it means the other team can no longer get compensation if it's a contract year.

Now, if a player has more years of team control left, then this gives you leverage. You don't have to settle for a mediocre offer and can opt to wait until the off-season when picks will be available and a lot of prospects will have aged, so people won't be sitting on their fancy peak rating.

Pick Value: Well, there's the Draft Pick Value Chart. This can help you get an idea of where trading up or trading down should net you in value. Obviously, the strength of the draft class is heavy factor. As well as who's currently on the board. Cash value fluctuates, usually based on if some teams are flush with cash and willing to offer stupid amounts of cash for pick. Here's my general cash value chart:

To get a feel for the current year's value, keep an eye on the trades being made. Too many times, people sell better picks for less when a different draft pick for cash deal was JUST POSTED an hour/day ago.

The value when trading picks for prospects or MLB players will always vary from GM-to-GM. But, I think in general, the good GMs aren't dealing their first unless they're getting a player that they can rely on for 5+ years or getting an elite player to cap off a playoff run, if they're older. 2nd rounders are also pretty valuable. You're still likely getting a mid 80s peak prospect that could blossom into a top player (i.e. Carlos Mancio). 3rd and 4th rounders still net useful role players or can land you players who have fallen too far. Contrary to the beliefs of some, 5th and 6th rounders are not just Comp fodder. While you fail many times, targeting the right builds can land you useful players (i.e. Luis Zamora). NEVER throw away these picks, just because they generally don't work out. The good GMs won't.

Player Age/Decline: I don't understand how not every GM looks closely at this. But each season you see a trade where a GM gives up a quality return for a player who, while he looks good now, has already been declining for a few seasons and even more decline will hinder his production and value.

Check the Vitals Tab! This will show you the ebbs and flows of a player's ratings. Now just because you see a drop, doesn't necessarily mean a player is declining. Sometimes players drop in their first year of being peaked. Every player will have at least 365 days of peak. But if you see a steady diet of drops year-after-year, you can chalk that up to decline.

You can then go back in old files and check out their previous vitals to verify that they are declining. Obviously lessened skills is a big indicator, but lowered health is another indicator.

Finances: With the salary demands bumped to +30%, finances are going to become something to look at more. If a player is overpaid, it's going to be an even worse idea to just take on that player. Consider what other comparable players make or what you could sign a similar player in Free Agency for. That's not to say that you couldn't/shouldn't consider adding an overpaid player in a trade, but you should make people add in cash or prospects/picks to offset the negative value of their contract.

Service Time/Team Control: Good GMs look at this. Personally, whether a small or large budget, it's always a factor for my teams. Not having to commit a lot of money (or getting the player for minimum) opens up your budget to afford to re-sign older players or get involved in some of the bigger name free agents.

BM 14 has a glitch where if a player has exactly 6 years, 0 days Service Time, then he's eligible for arbitration. FCM allows you to offer arbitration, offer fallback for compensation, or release to Free Agency.

Mogul does have Super 2 Status, but it's a little different than real life. Realistically, the top 22% players with at least 2 years, but not 3 years of service are Super 2 Status. This version of Mogul is still on the old top 17%, but it also has a hard line of Super 2 Status and still earning the minimum. That cut-off is 2 years, 142 days. Anyone with 2 years, 143 days or more will be arbitration eligible. Anyone with less will still earn the minimum.

Counting Service Time is quite simple. There are 184 days in a season (March 31 through September 30). A player can only accrue 172 days of service each season (172 days = 1 year). If a player is up for a full season, the extra 12 days simply don't count. You can check the opening day file to see where the player started.

Note that if there are play-in games for the Wildcard play-in game, those days will count as Service Time if a player doesn't yet have a full year.

Prospects: In my own blog, I touched on prospects jumping and then how their peak drops when they age. Based on how much their peak drops when they age, it can give you a good estimation of how many more seasons a player has to develop. Like I said on the other blog, a player isn't going to drop 7 peak one year and then drop 2 peak the next. They will follow the same general path. Checking old files to know these things can save you from buying high on a prospect that is either as good as peaked or just doesn't have enough time to develop.

Trade Market: Some will lead you to believe that this is a big factor. Honestly, this is something that I don't pay much attention to and don't allow to dictate my trades. Though there's still understanding what other teams have available or are looking for.

For example, if you have a RP available and 4 other teams have comparable relief arms. Then you need to decide if it's really worth dealing the guy now or if you can wait it out a season or two. If you really want to deal the RP now, you'll likely have to be the lowest bidder (and possibly take less than you expected). There's nothing wrong with this in certain situations.

Cleveland: Rebuilding or Retooling?

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sat, 20 Feb 2021 17:32:00 +0000

The Indians dealt away 1B Jaime Archiega, RF Bret Alexander, CF Carlos Mancio, and RP Bruno Washbourne while additionally sending SP Edmund Rivera to free agency. However, even dealing away some star power and integral pieces, the Indians don’t appear to be in a complete rebuild. They’ve yet to deal away much of the younger, cost-controlled talent. For most of the players lost, there’s replacements on the way very soon.

Prospects to Rely On

3B Shaun Ketcham (ETA: 2105) – He got a cup of coffee last September and showed well enough. He’ll be expected to be the “vs RHP” platoon portion at 3B this year. (In a full season) He brings 30+ 2B, 15 HR, and 80+ BB talent to the plate. It’s tough to gauge where his average will sit. Based on the eye test, you’d think he’ll be around .260, but based off of his minor league numbers, it’ll be higher. If it’s somewhere in between, he’ll turn out around a .270/.365/.415 slash line. His defense will be interesting. He has a cannon at the hot corner and some of the best range in the game there as well (and rated among the best defensively at 91). He’ll make some errors, but they appear to be more of throwing errors than fielding errors, so can a good 1B save him of a few errors?

UT Pancho Diaz (ETA: 2106) – It seems strange to think a 74/77 rated “prospect” is someone to rely on, but being a super utility player paves the road to the majors for him. There’s nothing overly great about him, but he does a few things solidly enough that combined with his versatility, makes him any easy bench stash. (In a full season) I figure he’d be a 20-25/under 10 power guy with around 30 BB. He won’t have a very inspiring slash line (.220/.260/.300), but being able to play seven different positions is what will have him keeping a roster spot.

SS Brad Watkins (ETA: 2107) – When I drafted him in 2102, I figured that I had a good idea of what I was getting. A black hole offensive player who would take some time to develop, but I was getting a superb defender and being a lefty hitter, his bat is a little less black hole-ish. What’s his slash line? That’s tough to say. In two years (and a window boost still to come), he could look tolerable at the plate. If I had to guess, I think around .235/.275/.340 is where he’ll be. A classic #9 hitter, “Go make your out and get your glove ready!”

CF Jeremy Raley (ETA: 2106) – I really expected him to be called up at some point this season, but in a cruel twist of fate, Mogul decided to NOT give him his window boost at his age-25 season. So, he’ll be in that rare group who doesn’t see a March 1 bump until their age-26 season. The good news, is that he’s been a low peak drop guy, so he has plenty of time to develop. I’d think that his contact will overtake his power pretty soon and that he’ll peak out around mid 80s contact and low 80s power to go along with a strong on-base eye. It’s really tough to project his future slash line, since his numbers have been all over the place. However, let’s guess… .270/.360/.440 seems like something that his skills can accomplish.

RF Tommy Nelson (ETA: 2106) – While it’d be great to have him MLB ready right now at his age-25 season, he’s still developed very nicely so far. If you can’t move all that well in the outfield, at least have a good arm (and he does). He looks like he’ll be a mid-to-upper 70s contact, 90s power, and low 80s eye hitter. While you’d prefer great all-around, he’s basically the prototypical RF that you hope for; some power, some walks, and a good arm. His triple slash line of .250/.320/.480 is solid enough for someone projected to peak in the upper 80s overall.

SP Rodrigo Fergueroa (ETA: 2105) – He saw some action last season (and got a cold welcome to The Show). He should peak out around upper 80s control, ~70 power, and low 90s movement. He looks to be a low home run pitcher and with a high ground ball rate, he should be a quality pitcher regardless of where his skills peak out. In very fitting fashion, I think he’ll settle into a very fine #3 starter.

LR Nomar Hartwell (ETA: 2105) – I’m very intrigued to see how his home runs play out. He’s a low GB% guy and he doesn’t have big time power. That’s usually not a recipe for low homers, but he’s never been beaten up in the minors. That’s not to say that it couldn’t happen in the majors, but generally a high home run arm will see at least some years where they give up a lot of minor league home runs. For now he’ll fit in nicely as either the MRP or LRP roles. If his home runs do prove to be low, he could wind up as an inning-eating #5 SP.

SP Todd Chiles (ETA: 2106) – I used to hate him. Then his control jumped a good amount and I kind of like him. If his control continues to play catch up, I’ll really like him. He projects to have upper 70s control, mid 70s power, and easy 90s movement. I can easily see his control getting into the 80s. If it does, he’ll be fantastic. He looks like he’ll be a low home run pitcher and with his high ground ball rate, his kind of build should be very productive.

SP Ted Hanson (ETA: 2106) – He obviously has a very similar build to Chiles. However, with him being a 79 overall and Chiles being a 75 overall, Chiles is a good step ahead of him. Hanson does look to be a lock for being a low home run arm. He projects mid 70s control, mid 60s power, and 90s movement. Though with the strides that he’s made with control recently (and just like Chiles), I can see Hanson’s control being a better than ~75, but not quite 80. Even so, with the low home runs and high GB%, he’ll back a welcomed addition to the bottom of the rotation.

SP Omar Arredondo (ETA: 2107) – Now, he’s shown those home run issues, with almost always sporting a HR/9 over the average 1.10 rate. Naturally, it’s easy to see with a 20% ground ball and mediocre power that it’s not surprising. He’s certainly not my typical pitcher, but I felt he was worth the risk. He still has plenty of time to develop and projects pretty well. He should have low 80s control, upper 70s power, and low-to-mid 90s movement. Whether he’ll be a 4.50 ERA pitcher or a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher will likely ride on just how many dingers he gives up. If he can grow out of those issues altogether, he could be quite the quality pitcher.

Prospects That Need Some Help

1B Charlie Klimek – It’s no secret that he doesn’t have an inspiring build. Obviously, I’m not as quick to write him off as others. He only projects around low 80s contact and power with his eye right on the cusp of 80. That’s certainly not what you want at 1B. The hope is that in one of his final two years to develop, he has a very encouraging jump. If he does that, then he’s much more in line with being a startable player.

OF/1B Bradford Flynn – When I traded for him I thought he’d easily be a prospect to count on. He’s a lefty with solid power, a good eye, and good defense. However, a drop from the Andy Dragon sends him down to this list. Right now, he projects to become a mid 70s contact, mid-ish 80s power, and mid 80s eye bat. Having good defense and being a lefty helps his case, but I think he’ll need a very kind and gracious jump in the next two years to feel confident about him in the starting lineup.

OF Oscar Burlos – Will he be a starter or just a 4th OF? He’s solid enough defensively and could become a great OBP threat. The problem is that he has almost zero home run power and isn’t fast enough to rely on in CF. While I don’t pigeonhole certain kind of bat profiles at specific positions, you only need so many contact guys before you need some thump in the order. He should have solid ~15 steal potential, but that’s not enough to where you forgo a power bat either. The good thing is that he’s only dropped about two points when he’s aged, so there’s a lot of time for him to develop. His contact could shoot up to the point where it’s enough to stick him in LF.

What's Next?

After these guys hit the majors, the minor league cupboard would be pretty bare. Though, Cleveland is armed with eight picks in the top 62 (or higher) of the 2105 draft, so they have a great chance to restock the minor leagues for the next wave of talent.

As for how soon will Cleveland be back, making playoff runs? That’s tough to say. The AL Central looks to continue to be a bloodbath for years to come. Sometimes your well armed and stout team falls short, while your team of solid-to-good players wins 100 games. You can never truly get a good gauge of your team in the ALC. You just have to play the games.

Bullpen Arms: Tough or Easy to Find?

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Mon, 15 Jun 2020 22:59:00 +0000

To many it's thought that relievers are tough to find. Are they really tough to find? I've long thought that while it is tough to find a dominant reliever, finding a suitable, (around) average reliever is not difficult to do. I decided to put our 2098 numbers to the test.

2098 was around about an average bullpen season (FCM generally sits around 4.40 ERA for relievers). In determining who fits and to weed out any pitchers who were used sparingly, flipped back and forth to the rotation, etc... I decided on these parameters:

At least 40 IP and no more than 2 GS

Bullpen Types	Amount	G	IP	ER	Hits	HR	Ks	Walks	BF	AB	ERA	OBA
Average Arm	134	41	75.2	36	76	9	49	33	328	292	4.36	.260
Above Avg Arm	72	44	79.1	30	73	7	50	30	334	300	3.43	.244
Below Avg Arm	61	38	70.7	44	79	11	47	35	321	283	5.59	.280
Under 3.00 ERA	18	47	77.1	21	62	5	53	28	316	286	2.50	.217
Under 4.00 ERA	55	45	77.8	27	70	7	50	29	325	293	3.17	.238

I consider four true relief arms as needed (CL, SU, SR, SR). The LRP is probably almost always filled by a "6th" SP and the MRP is probably up for debate, but personally, I at least want 50s endurance pitcher for in case my LRP gets injured during the same and I'm not forced to start 20s endurance pitchers.

So, if we're just going to look at the above average ERA arms, we get 72 (or enough to fill 18 teams with better than average relievers). Considering that most rebuilding teams won't care if they have a good reliever, that fulfills most playoff contending teams. After that, you see what the below average relievers bring (or don't bring) to the table.

Then, I broke them down into two separate categories; Under 3.00 ERA and Under 4.00 ERA. To me, what you're gunning for is a solid sub-4.00 ERA reliever. That gets you a reliever that is assuredly above average and won't lose you games over and over. What you'd love is to have a sub-3.00 ERA reliever. Those are the guys that can dominate.

Under 3.00 ERA
With just 18 relievers who fit, there's not enough to go around for all 30 teams, but it's likely each playoff contender has one (if not two). The have the best OBA and HR/9 by a good margin and also have the best K/9 and BB/9, even if just by a slight margin.

Under 4.00 ERA
These do include the Under 3.00 ERA relievers, so there's 37 relievers who pitched between a 3.00 and 3.99 ERA. That's more than enough to have one per team and with the sub-3.00 ERA relievers, you nearly get enough to cover all 30 teams twice.

In the end, I think what this shows is that it truly is tough to find a top notch reliever (again, 18 relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA). However, it's not entirely difficult to find a solid reliever to fill your pen (54 other relievers with an above average bullpen ERA).

Position Changes

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Mon, 11 May 2020 21:30:00 +0000

Reposted from 2/1/12 with a few updates...

There's many people who erroneously think that allowing a player to play a new position will get you random vitals when the player is changed. That's not true. They aren't random and you can keep tabs on your natural position changes. Even if they already have the position as a secondary position, when they change it'll be a reflection of their actual performance over the past two seasons. Using these checks is a nice thing to do throughout the process so you know if you need to abort the natural position change or if it's going smoothly. I've converted many players doing this (Ken Smith, Paul Finnell, Ross Elless for example) and I've aborted a handful as well (Jose Rabena to LF).

- If you start a player at a position different than his primary position for two consecutive seasons, he will likely change to that new position after the re-signing period in the second year.

--- The player has to make the majority of his starts at the new position in consecutive years.

--- The player must make at least 30 starts at the new position in consecutive years (This was from BM 11, BM 14 relies on Innings for vitals, so it may revolve around Innings played now).

--- The player must finish the season as a full-time player at the new position and be re-signed (players who are traded or go to Free Agency generally do not get this change).

--- The player's new predicted (vitals) will be the average of his performance at the new position over the past two seasons (odd fractions will round up, i.e. 7.5 would round up to 8, but 8.5 would stay at 8)

EXAMPLE
I have done this with Ross Elless, moving him to CF.

2025: 118 G, 7 A, 260 PO, 0 DP, 3 E
2024: 86 G, 9 A, 204 PO, 1 DP, 1 E (ATL and COL combined)

He should have a predicted CF defense of:
102 G, 8 A, 232 PO, 0 DP, 2 E (as of Off-Season File Season 17)

By opening up a new game, you can edit some CF's predicted stats to see what he'd look like.

2097 Off-Season Trade Review

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sun, 05 Apr 2020 23:08:00 +0000

Gets:

SP Gunyoung Acencio 74/90

SP Howard Woodcock 51/86

RP Adam Riddell 78

SEA 3rd Round Pick

Gets:

SP Matt Hanson

I really thought Atlanta made out very well in this deal. Hanson is solid (and had a great 2096), but this isn’t real life where a pitcher can actually build off of a great year and figure things out. This is Mogul and Hanson has shown to be a slightly above average pitcher. And again, there’s nothing wrong with that. I just don’t think he’s as valuable as what was given up.

Acencio looks really good. His movement will certainly be great and if his control can catch up, he could be a top of the rotation starter. Woody has an interesting build and only dropped two points when he aged. He’ll have plenty of time to develop and should be a mid-rotation starter (if not better).

Both of those guys plus a 3rd and only having to take on Riddell’s $8M is quite the haul for Hanson. Also, considering pitchers that show some resemblance of power and a lower GB% generally pitch close to their DICE, I don’t think he’s a guy that you can prop up with elite defense. Maybe Hanson will start living up to his vitals, but he’s shown enough to think he’ll simply be a solid 3.75-4.00 ERA arm.

Gets:

1B Steve Kinlaw 61/85

LF David Hicks 69/90

Gets:

SP Barry Crane 71/88

RF Anselm Parker 67/83

RP Sean Revill 67/76

I was a little baffled why a rebuilding team would give up two solid prospects for one solid prospect. I think Kinlaw becomes a very good bat vs RHP (and it’s not tough to find a platoon partner vs LHP) and I’m pretty intrigued with Hicks. He’s certainly not ideal in the outfield, but should be tolerable there. His bat looks like it’ll develop into quite the balanced threat. While he won’t set any leaderboards on fire, I look for him to hit for a solid average, some pop, and draw a decent number of walks (as well as quietly swipe a few bags).

Parker looks solid (like Hicks), but looses a lot of appeal when you consider that he’ll age in March and probably only has another three years to develop after that. Maybe he catches a nice jump, but I don’t see him being more than a startable placeholder for rebuilding teams. Crane has a decent build and hasn’t dropped much when he’s aged. However, I can’t shake the thought that he’ll develop into just an ordinary bottom of the rotation pitcher. Revill? Yeah, he exists.

Gets:

SS Iyasu Shimizu 85

Gets:

SP Lance Walder 80

This probably isn’t that big of a trade (talent wise), but the salary implications make it one. Walder is nothing more than rebuild fodder and, aside from a random 2094, Shimizu has been shoddy at best. The big win is Florida, who saves almost $42M.

Gets:

$10M Cash

Gets:

1B Paul Lucey 86

SS Chris Nowak 75/80

SP Rafael Cavieles 80

SP Leon Burdman 80

Even if you take Lucey’s contract at the buyout value with also giving $10M cash, this is giving over $55M total for a few roster fillers.

Nowak is great defensively, but he doesn’t do much offensively. His contact is putrid, he can’t draw walks, despite a decent power rating he hasn’t shown anything in the minors, and again despite solid speed he doesn’t steal bases. Cavieles looks solid, but is also 30, so the value on him is quite limited. Burdman is passable for one of the last couple of bullpen slots, but is a guy that you jettison off your roster if he ever drops. In the end, I just have to think that you can do more for yourself than spending over $55M on these players.

2061 Re-Draft

noreply@blogger.com (Texas_Tornado) — Tue, 23 Jan 2018 02:10:00 +0000

Trying something new to take a look back at some of the past drafts, and the players they brought us. I'm hoping to look back 15 seasons each offseason, so I'll try to do a couple more this offseason to get us caught up. Just fill out the form with ranking the players posted 1-10. If you don't feel a player was one of the top 10 from that draft, then just leave it blank. Once a good number of responses comes in, I'll post the results here.

2061 Re-Draft Poll

San Diego Padres 2074 Draft Review

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Wed, 30 Aug 2017 18:00:00 +0000

1st Round: #5 Overall – SP Samuel Zuniga, HS-- Saltillo, Coahuila, Mexico

Pros: Youth, Control, “Low” Endurance, Small Aging Drop, High GB%, Balanced Repertoire

Cons: Large Control-Movement Gap, Lacks Dominant Pitch

Analysis: There’s a lot to like about this guy. He’s very young and only dropped two points when he aged, so he should peak later than the standard at 25. If his Control doesn’t turn out to be elite, it should be very close. While he may end up lacking a true dominant pitch, he will have at least two good pitches and two more than should be major league quality. He does have a larger Control-to-Movement gap than I’d like to see. However, he only had one season of 1.00+ HR/9 (and that was just at 1.02) and has a nice GB%. Not to mention he’s certainly young enough to grow out of any home run issues. Lastly, only being a 53 Endurance means as he’s put to Starter Usage, his Power and Movement will naturally increase with the way Mogul attempts to zap those two vitals for lesser Endurance arms. He may take awhile to reach the majors, but with patience I see no reason that he’s not a top of the rotation arm.

1st Round: #16 Overall – SP Leon Ryan, HS-- Baltimore, Maryland

Pros: Youth, Good Control-Movement Gap, Small Aging Drop, High GB%, Health

Cons: Two Pitches, High Home Runs

Analysis: This was an important pick for me. With this pick representing the key return for dealing Chris Monahan, I nearly thought of needing to take other, higher peaks (which would have been position players). However, I stayed true with my plan to take pitching early. Ideally, I’d like for a pitcher’s Control to be a little better than his 59, but it is +9 from his overall, it is a nice distance from his Movement, and he’s just 18. Only having two pitches is a concern, but we have nothing proven to say a pitcher with only two offerings can’t successful. Plus he should have at least 5 Spring Trainings to learn a third pitch. His home runs are a decent concern (1.18 HR/9 as an amateur and a high of 1.48). But again, he’s very young and has a nice GB% to not make it much of an issue. Some people get concerned when a player has higher health (and it can certainly detract from a player’s upside), but his health isn’t too high and is in a nice range where it should help his stay on the field and miss the disabled list. Like Zuniga, he too only dropped two points when he aged. That was the key information in taking him over Garrett Dobbins or Scott Mortin, who were the higher peaks near the top of my best available list.

1st Round: #28 Overall – 1B/3B Garrett Dobbins, HS-- Long Beach, California

Pros: All Hitting Vitals Above Overall, Good Splits, Health

Cons: Power, Questionable/Risky Defense

Analysis: He looks very pleasing with all of his hitting vitals being above his overall. I think he’ll develop a very good Eye and while I question just how good his Power will be, I believe either if his Power is lacking, it’ll be because his Contact shot way up there during development or his Power development will surprise and he’ll become a quality well-rounded bat. I also appreciate his splits being at just a -7 drop (Contact vs RHP from LHP). One thing I always do when noticing a player should have predicteds at another position is draft him in my game and then check to see what Mogul says his vitals are at each position. Now you can’t always believe it (Mogul sometimes shows screwy things), but in Dobbins’ case it makes me think he could develop into a passable Third Baseman.

2nd Round: #50 Overall – 1B Jamar Williams, Rice University

Pros: Power, Eye

Cons: Defense, Health

Analysis: He reminds me of Juan Bigil. His Power and Eye being a good bit above his overall makes me think he could develop into a middle-of-the-order slugger. His health isn’t the greatest, but with his defense lacking, he may be a DH anyways. His defense won’t be anything you joyously trout out to the field, but he’d suffice if necessary. I had no intentions of taking him (especially with just having taken Dobbins), but after some pitching targets fell of the board, I couldn’t resist what could be a pick that’s looked back on as being a very good value selection.

3rd Round: #62 Overall – RP Dan English, HS-- Waukee, Iowa

Pros: High GB%, Plus Slider

Cons: High Home Runs

Analysis: Reliever development can be quite volatile, but the hope is that he develops much the way Francisco Azcona did and he can turn into a starter. He won't end up with the Control that Azcona had, but he’s got a nice ground ball rate and already has three pitches with a Slider that could be very good. There is a concern with his 1.34 HR/9 from his senior year. All prior years were fine, but you can’t write off even one high home run year with Mogul. It could mean something, it could not. Though he could (and should) have the time to develop past any long ball issues. And even if his Control never comes around to rotation worthy, I think he’ll make a fine bullpen arm.

3rd Round: #74 Overall – SS Manuel Dosal, Auburn University

Pros: Speed, Eye

Cons: Poor Splits, Fielding, Limited Upside

Analysis: He’s a burner and I imagine he’ll have an easy time making a major league roster. The question is just how good will he be? He’ll struggle with errors and his hitting splits are a rough -13 drop. With only 8 true upside, he may not have very long to develop. If he’s lucky enough to have 4 or more years to develop, then I think he’ll be a starting option. He already shows a good ability to draw walks and even if his Contact vs RHP isn’t great, combined with his Speed, he’ll have enough value to start. This was a bit of a gamble pick, but I felt strong enough with my prior picks to be aggressive.

5th Round: #132 Overall – SP Gaetan Trajillo, Tulane University

Pros: Control, Fastball

Cons: High Home Runs, Limited Upside

Analysis: He has a nice build. All of his vitals are above his overall, so if he can get some lucky jumps, I like where his development is headed. He has shown some high home runs and being 20 years old, it’s a legitimate concern as opposed to a young, teener who should have a high number of years to develop past those concerns. Having only 16 true upside isn’t optimal for a pitcher and I would put my money on him developing to no later than age 24. If I’m wrong and he can develop beyond 24 or get some super jumps, he’ll be a quality rotation arm.

Stop Being The Lamb That's Led To The Slaughter!

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Tue, 22 Aug 2017 14:57:00 +0000

This is an old blog that I wrote years ago and is a good refresher.

Why do admins and mods win while others circle in the middle of the pack? First, they can recognize talent. Just cause someone has a good overall or peak rating doesn't mean they're going to produce for you. "X" number rating doesn't equal "X" number of production. Power, for example, could be doubles power or home run power. While minor league numbers aren't to be 100% believed, you can get a good idea on things like 2B, HR, BB, and K. Then based on that information, you can plug in expected production from other ratings.

Second, they know how and when to trade. People who have that "trade itch" seem to screw their teams over with the desire to continually trade. The good ones will always entertain trade possibilities, but don't pounce on the opportunity unless it makes sense.

But, the biggest reason why the administrators and moderators reign supreme is that they know how prospects develop. It goes beyond being able to recognize a good prospect. In Mogul players only progress once per season. Now I know some of you are saying, "I've seen a guy jump twice in a season before". You aren't wrong, but what you've seen is a progression and a random jump.

We all know talent distribution is random. Players sometimes jump, players sometimes fall. If it's a talent distribution jump or drop, it's usually accompanied by a health change. The only time when a player's health drops is when the player is regressing. So if you notice a health change on a player that you know isn't regressing yet the jump/drop is random talent distribution.

With knowing how to recognize a random jump from a normal progression jump you can figure out if a player still has the possibility of progressing or not in the current season. This is where a lot of the elite GMs do their work. If they know a prospect has already jumped, they'll try and sell high on that prospect. On the flip side, they'll also consider this when trading for a prospect.

EXAMPLE

A 75/85 rated prospect on opening day jumps to 80/90 mid-season. Once he ages he'll likely fall back to 80/85, so buying on the 90 peak is buying into value that isn't there.

By looking at old files you can get a better sense of how much a player should drop when he ages. Seeing patterns in past development can assist in figuring out where a player should end up.

For the exampled prospect one might think they should trade an 87 or 88 rated veteran. If you continually do this you're selling yourself short and continually giving the administrators and moderators an advantage.

My advice to the league is to research. Know what you're holding. Know what you're trading for. I see people continually trading an 88 rated veteran for a prospect who'll become an 80/85 or a 92 rated veteran for a prospect who'll drop to 84/90. Now certainly age and salary can be a factor, but I'm talking about instances where age and salary are not a deterrent on trade value.

Look at the opening day file and compare the prospect to what he looks like now. Then check out old files to see how a prospect's peak usually drops when he ages. The rate at which a player's peak drops when he ages does NOT change. Mogul is consistent when aging players. You won't see a guy drop 7 one season and then only drop 2 the next. If a player has 9 true upside remaining, he may drop 5 one year and then 4 the next due to rounding, but the drops will always be within +/- 1.

If you do these things, I guarantee you'll start to make better trades.

EDIT: How To Determine If A Player Is Pre-Window
All examples are from the 2086 Sim #3 file

So, I've gone back and forth over the years on whether I should make this public or not. It can be seen as an advantage if you don't know it, but it can also be a hindrance when people know I (or others) know and assume there's plot twist about to happen to the prospect in question.

It's time to come forward and have everyone understand how to determine if a player is pre-window or not. It will help people make better decisions and not feel like they're missing out on information that others know.

First you should read this. Whether you hear it referenced as "Window Jump" or "Projected Debut Jump" or whatever else, it's the same thing. It's the +4 overall and (mostly) +3 jump to vitals that happens on March 1. As the link and file showed, it usually happens at age 23, but far from uncommon to not happen until 24. It also can be as late as age 25 or 26. I've yet to see it hit later than 26 and I've only seen it hit earlier than 23 if the player peaks out before then.

Also, remember (as the file showed) older players have the Projected Retirement drop. This is the exact opposite that prospects see. The drop will be -4 overall and -3 to each vital.

So, how exactly can you tell if a player has hit their Career Window jump or not? It's very simple. For position players open up their profile and go to the Skills tab. If their Speed rating in the Base Running section and Speed in their main vitals do NOT match, the player has NOT YET hit their Projected Debut. If their Speed ratings DO match, then the player HAS hit their Projected Debut.

For pitchers, go to the Roster Dialog/Sortable Stats (Ctl + R). You need to have Speed as a Column Heading. From there note what their Speed rating says and then open up their profile. Again, go to the Skills tab. If their Speed rating in the Base Running section and Speed in the Roster Dialog/Sortable Stats do NOT match, the player has NOT YET hit their Projected Debut. If their Speed ratings DO match, then the player HAS hit their Projected Debut.

So, how is this advantageous?

Take CF Charlie Carroll for example. He's rated 82/86 and his Speed ratings do NOT match. Since his peak is within 4 of his overall, you know that he's actually peaked in terms of development and just waiting on his Career Window jump (which will likely happen next March 1). From there you can deduce that he'll have 86 contact, 77 power, 83 speed, 75 eye, 82 arm, 85 range, and 76 fielding (health does not jump on BM 14 - FYI it does on BM 11).

This helps in knowing where he should end up. If he had already hit his Career Window jump, then it'd be possible that his contact could soar higher or that his speed would not get to 83. It's about knowing what you're getting.

On the flip side is 3B Tom Wallop 75/82. His Speed ratings match, so he's already hit his Career Window jump. His 7 upside is really 7 upside and he should have some time to actually develop.

In either scenario, it could be good or bad for whichever side of the Career Window jump the player is on. Maybe you were hoping for a lucky, better than expected jump. So, if the player is 80/84 and has not hit his Window jump yet, then you're out of luck. But if he already hit that Window jump, then a lucky jump could be in order.

Trading 101 - Refresher

noreply@blogger.com (Andy P) — Fri, 04 Aug 2017 04:33:00 +0000

I posted this awhile back...I think I might just repost it every 5 seasons or so.

I know people are often scared to trade with me because they believe I always come out ahead. I like to think that isn't true, I always try to give back real value when I deal. But even if I do come out ahead I try to take a process that people can at least trust. So here's a few pointers that might help some of you:

1) If I'm asking for a specific player, I make it known right away that I want that player. If they can be had, the next thing I ask is for my trade partner to tell me what THEY like. I don't tell them who I'd trade. I don't tell them who I'm offering. I tell them who is not available and have them give me a list of what they want. From there, we can hammer out a deal or not, but at least we both have buy-in for what is being exchanged.

2) If someone else refuses to tell you who they won't trade and keeps offering who they want to offer - consider that a huge red flag. They're trying to sell you on something they don't want for something they want from you. Walk away from it.

3) If someone asks me about a player, I give them a list of players I want from them. Sometimes I say things like "I'd have to get X player in this deal". Sometimes I just pick and choose a few guys. But again I give that list of players so that my trade partner again feels like they have buy-in on the deal. If I'm constantly leading you on to what I want and there isn't real give and take....you're probably talking about a bad deal waiting to happen. If the guys you want aren't available, walk away.

4) Make a real effort to give value if you're going to get value. Yeah, we can all say "this guy has been here long enough for us to stop protecting him", I'd flip that:"You've been here long enough to know that if you're ripping a guy bad enough to think that, the deal is in bad form" Knock it off. Offer value.

Vetos suck for everyone. They create unneeded BS in the league. Avoid it. Please.

5) Understand the context of trades, so that you understand leverage, draft pick value, player age, finances, prospect value, the market itself, etc. Sometimes you walk away from a deal early because you know the offers are all coming in low. Find value later. Rushing things is always a bad idea.

6) Ask someone whose knowledge you trust. I never shy from giving my honest, un-filtered opinion. Even about my own players, good or bad.

2072 Veterans Committee: The Corners

noreply@blogger.com (Andy P) — Fri, 09 Jun 2017 04:12:00 +0000

This article will strictly be my opinion, but I'll try and back it up with as much fact as possible. Since I've been here from the first sim I know pretty much all of the players and can try to put them into context.

1B Chris Munroe

Stats: Drafted. 2023 Debut. 2025 Retired. 2041

4 ASG
1885 G 6867 AB 1765 Hits 1218 R 398 2B 38 3B 427 HR 1265 RBI 1190 BB 92 IBB
20 SB .257/.368/.513 (.881 OPS)

The Case For: A lot of Munroe's case rests upon who he played for. Munroe was Sean Vogel's original protection before eventual HOFer Jose Vargas came along. In 11 of his 13 seasons he hit more than 30 homeruns and in 9 of his 13 seasons he drove in over 100 runs. He is 16th all-time on the FCM HR list. While he was a consistent low-average player he was an elite slugger with a career SLG over .500 and his OBP was much higher than you'd expect for his career average because of his elite eye at the plate. He basically average 32 HR, 30 doubles, 97 RBI, 100 walks, 100 runs a year. That's a damn good player.

The Case Against: Damn good may not be worthy of the Hall. As good as Munroe was he never won an MVP, was an all-star only 4 times, was limited by a low average and a relatively low career OPS. Let's face it, for a guy that could never play the field and only play DH - anything less than a .900 OPS probably doesn't cut it. He was also never an elite player on his own team, despite the huge production he put up.

Real Life Comp: Andres Galarraga

My Verdict: Look, he was my guy. I loved having him in my lineup and he put up some fantastic stats, but he's probably not a HOFer. He was just a solidly productive DH on some of the league's best teams ever.

1B Jose Rabena

Stats: Drafted. 2019 Debut. 2023 Retired. 2037

3 ASG 1 MVP
1797 G 5896 AB 1578 Hits 1165 R 340 2B 13 3B 420 HR 1257 RBI 1397 BB 180 IBB
27 SB .268/.417/.543 (.960 OPS)

The Case For: He has a pretty impressive track record. A .543 slugging percentage and a .960 OPS are highlights for sure. This is a guy that averaged about 30 HR, 100 RBI, 115 walks a season. He's 18th on the list all-time for HRs, he was a very good fielder, and he was able to achieve an MVP award for his 2030 campaign in which he hit 45 HRs and posted a 1.045 OPS. His career numbers would put him as the second highest OPS among 1B in our HOF as well as the third highest SLG, tied for the highest OBP, and the second highest walk total.

The Case Against: Was he good enough, long enough? 1500 career hits is not elite, it's roughly 1,000 less than our average HOF 1B and would be far and away the lowest number in the Hall. His run total, doubles total, RBI total, and batting average are also well below Hall averages. In addition, it should be noted that he played in Coors Field and that can be a factor in hitter production as well.

Real Life Comp: Mark Teixeira

My Verdict: He's a really, really tough call. Some of his numbers scream HOF, some scream keep him out. I probably put him in, because the numbers that are good enough are easily good enough.

1B Manny Capestany

Stats: Drafted. 2016 Debut. 2017 Retired. 2032

4 ASG
2105 G 7508 AB 1984 Hits 1260 R 390 2B 22 3B 470 HR 1363 RBI 1185 BB 68 IBB
42 SB .264/.367/.510 (.877 OPS)

The Case For: His HR total, walk total, RBI total, and his slugging percentage are all in line with HOF averages. 470 HRs rank him 10th all time in FCM. From 2021-2026 he was an elite level 1B for the Nationals.

The Case Against: Pretty much everything else isn't HOF worthy. He never won an MVP award, his teams were afterthoughts, and the rest of his numbers just don't add up. My comp is Delgado because you look at him and you think "wow, more production than I thought" and you don't think "wow - he was as great as the numbers look"

Real Life Comp: Carlos Delgado

My Verdict: Yeah, his HR total is nice, but Capestany was never much. He's Curt Lockhard before Curt Lockhard was Curt Lockhard.

3B Lane Gravely

Stats: Drafted: 2023 Debut: 2024 Retired: 2046

6 ASG 2 GG
1940 G 7550 AB 2211 Hits 1178 R 412 2B 53 3B 376 HR 1325 RBI 598 BB 108 IBB
8 SB .293/.349/.511 (.860 OPS)

The Case For: Our 3B wing is elite and getting in has proved remarkably difficult. Comparing him to HOF averages probably isn't fair, but I will comp him to one member: Marv Eason. Eason was an elite part of a Reds dynasty that had a great run offensively and his numbers align pretty well. Gravely's OPS, SLG, AVG, RBI, HR, and Doubles all line up well with Eason. In addition, Gravely was a better fielder than Eason as well. Significantly so, in fact.

The Case Against: Eason was an elite part of an elite team for about a 5 year run and he had a few areas of significant advantage over Gravely - he walked a lot more and collected about 400 more hits. In addition, Gravely bounced around and never really settled in as a significant piece to any significant teams. I comp him to Matt Williams because people might remember him having some great years, but he was rarely thought of as a HOF caliber player.

Real Life Comp: Matt Williams

My Verdict: I remember Lane Gravely well. He was consistently good for a long time. He was a very good defender who could give you 28-100-.850 OPS with reliability. With Marv Eason this becomes a lot more difficult because they look like the same player, but my memories of their impact is very different. I think I might vote yes, but it's a hard one.

LF Antonio Candelalia

Stats: Drafted: 2024 Debut: 2027 Retired: 2044

2 ASG 2 MVP 2 GG ROY
2058G 8065AB 2439 Hits 1229 R 478 2B 49 3B 276 HR 1417 RBI 847 BB 50 IBB
102 SB .302/.370/.477 (.847 OPS)

The Case For: The CandyMan was a really interesting player. He's in the top 30 or so of total hits in FCM history. His combination of MVP awards, gold glove fielding in LF, strong RBI total, and solid power production. He was the 2/3 hitter in some dynamic Angels teams and was a lethal partner in the OF with Peter Carson. He was a tough out, a switch hitter, and the kind of player that took a good lineup to great. His 28 HR and 145 RBI season in LAA in 2034 earned him an MVP but his general production was closer to 20 HR, 90 RBI, 90 runs, and great defense.

The Case Against: If he's a CF....he's in. But he wasn't. He was a corner OF who put up numbers significantly below his peers in the Hall. Perhaps his closest contemporary comp was Philip MacGruer who had 100 more hits, 200 more runs, 50 more doubles, 500 more steals, and roughly similar numbers in every other category. And P-Mac played half his career in CF and was an even better defender.

Real Life Comp: Bobby Abreu

My Verdict: He's not your typical corner OF, but even compared to CFers he lacks the resume to get my vote. He was solid and a valuable piece to a great team...but as an individual player? Not going to get my vote.

CF Murray McManaman –
Retired 2041, 14 Seasons
1 All-Star Games, 2 Gold Gloves

1,957 G 8,356 PA 1,682 Hits 1,164 R 293 2B 443 HR 1,297 RBI 999 BB 95 SB .233/.329/.470 (.779 OPS)

The Case For: He was an elite defensive centerfielder who managed to hit over 400 homeruns. Frankly, that's unique - no one else has done anything close to that.

The Case Against: He was a player with poor contact and was never really viewed as elite. His career OPS is on the low side and so are many of his counting stats.

Real Life Comp: Jim Edmonds

My Verdict: I lean yes, this write up was quick, but he has close to corner OF numbers with elite CF defense.

LF Chris Taylor

Stats: Drafted. 2019 Debut. 2025 Retired. 2041

6 ASG 1 MVP ROY
2096 G 7233 AB 2053 Hits 1237 R 417 2B 49 3B 424 HR 1392 RBI 1126 BB 188 IBB
9 SB .284/.380/.531 (.911 OPS)

The Case For: He makes a better case than my memory would recall. His HR total is in the top 20 all time. He walked a lot, he was good for 30 and 100 pretty much every year. He had some elite, MVP caliber years. His .911 OPS is really solid. His slash lines align well with both LF and RF averages in the Hall. His HR and walk totals do as well.

The Case Against: Well, he was a poor defender, so there is nothing to help there. His doubles, RBI, and hit totals are below our current averages. He bounced around a lot and had a somewhat erratic career in terms of production. Like my comp to Juan Gonzalez - he had moments of absolute brilliance and hit the ground running, but also struggled to maintain elite status much of his career.

Real Life Comp: Juan Gonzalez

My Verdict: Being elite some of your career just isn't enough.

1B Curt Lockhard

Stats: Drafted 2050 Debut 2053 Retired 2069

1 ASG
2109 G 7796 AB1917 Hits 1210 R 300 2B 33 3B 481 HR 1449 RBI 1023 BB 72 IBB
12 SB .246/.341/.478 (.819 OPS)

The Case For: He hit a lot of homeruns for some bad teams.

The Case Against: He did nothing else on bad teams.

Real Life Comp: Paul Konerko

My Verdict: Paul Konerko ain't getting in in real life either.

1B Aaron Pfeifer

Stats: Drafted 2046 Debut 2048 Retired 2065

2 ASG
2274 G 8954 AB 2538 Hits 1299 R 592 2B 41 3B 285 HR 1424 RBI 976 BB 23 IBB
65 SB .283/.352/.454 (.806 OPS)

The Case For: I can't find one. He had a long career and piled up hits?

The Case Against: He played first base and the OF and barely cleared an .800 OPS.

Real Life Comp: Jayson Werth - this is probably mean to Werth

My Verdict: Nope....and I drafted him!

RF Vinny Bastos

Stats: Drafted 2042 Debut 2050 Retired 2064

5 ASG 4 GG
1831 G 7584 AB 2434 Hits 1079 R 419 2B 70 3B 273 HR 1182 RBI 355 BB 89 IBB
103 SB .321/.351/.503 (.854 OPS)

The Case For: He's got a solid hit total, he hit a lot of doubles, he drove in a solid amount of runs, and he was a really good defender.

The Case Against: He didn't get enough of any of those things to make up for the fact that he was a RF.

Real Life Comp: Bernie Williams

My Verdict: Nope, good player, but not great.

RF Vinnie Evans

Stats: Drafted 2052 Debut 2054 Retired 2068

3 ASG
1907 G 7587 AB 2260 Hits 1068 R 522 2B 43 3B 249 HR 1171 RBI 661 BB 43 IBB
75 SB .298/.354/.476 (.830 OPS)

The Case For: See Vinnie Bastos

The Case Against: See Vinnie Bastos

Real Life Comp: Paul O'Neill

My Verdict: See Vinnie Bastos

LF Steve August

Stats: Drafted. 2041 Debut 2045 Retired 2059

5 ASG 1 MVP
2102 G 8384 AB 2399 Hits 1198 R 405 2B 29 3B 453 HR 1572 RBI 728 BB 146 IBB
44 SB .286/.343/.503 (.846 OPS)

The Case For: When he was good, he was really, really good. His HR and RBI total are for sure HOF worthy. When he was at his best there was no one better in the file. That run lasted about a decade on a really outstanding (and snakebitten) Cardinals dynasty.

The Case Against: He was a DH who basically never played in the field, so when you compare him to another DH on this list (Munroe) it's pretty clear (to me) that August wasn't as good in his career as Munroe was. So, depending on what you think about Munroe, you might make a case for him here.

Real Life Comp: Andre Dawson

My Verdict: August is your classic case of elite vs. longevity. His elite play lasted a decade, but then he fell off a cliff. Was a decade enough for a guy who was only a DH? For me, probably not. But he has some credentials.

2072 All Lettuce Team

noreply@blogger.com (Peter) — Mon, 29 May 2017 16:03:00 +0000

C Jose Cauozos San Francisco Giants
Haircut of choice: the tryhard

1B Javy Hernandez Pittsburgh Pirates
Haircut of choice: Feux mohawk

2B Chuck Strutt Milwaukee Brewers
Haircut of choice: Long flow

3B Rusty Michelle Texas Rangers
Haircut of choice: Fade sweep back

SS Richard Hounsell New York Yankees
Haircut of choice: the G

OF Ric Kirton Detroit Tigers
Haircut of choice: the Kravitz

OF Richie Evans Oakland Athletics
Haircut of choice: pony braid

OF Dan Jones Colorado Rockies
Haircut of choice: the non-haircut haircut

SP Yoshiie Fukuzawa Toronto Blue Jays
Haircut of choice: Mixed cornrows

CL Andy Hayman Houston Astros
Haircut of choice: mullet/old fart

2067 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sat, 22 Oct 2016 19:32:00 +0000

Unfortunately, I was far too busy to do the top prospects list over the off-season. So, it will be done as we start the 2067 season. Prospects are starting to graduate to the majors and the rebuild is taking shape! It shouldn't be long until the Indians are back to competing year-in and year-out.

The Grading Scale

99-92 Elite:

- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:

- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:

- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:

- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:

- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:

- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

15. Francisco Azcona, RP (Last Year: 16)
Current Value: 49/78 2067 Age: 20 Score: 82.27 Drafted: HS--San Jose de los Llanos, D.R., 2065 (3rd Round, 66th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071 or Later

His development is still plodding along, but he's still a valued prospect. The eventual hope is still to one day see Azcona transition to a starter. Right now it's just a waiting game to see if and when his development sparks the move to the rotation.

14. Jory Gardenas, CF (Last Year: 15)
Current Value: 67/83 2067 Age: 24 Score: 82.64 Drafted: University of Texas, 2064 (1st Round, 19th Overall), Astros Projected Call-Up: 2070

This is a possible make-or-break year for Gardenas. His development has not gone according to plan. He was once projection as the future starting center fielder and now he's more likely to be a 4th outfielder with an outliner of hope to regain his starting form.

13. Ray Wieczorek, RF (Last Year: NR)
Current Value: 71/81 2067 Age: 22 Score: 82.66 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

He's been one of the most enjoyable prospects to watch develop. His peak has risen each and every year and his development has really taken off recently. He should have 90+ contact with a solid eye. He'll never hit for much power and only has mediocre speed, but his average and enough ability to hit for doubles should make him a starting candidate.

12. Matt Marcus, LF/CF (Last Year: NR)

Current Value: 71/82 2067 Age: 21 Score: 82.90 Drafted: HS--Killorglin, Ireland, 2065 (3rd Round, 87th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

He profiles about the way you'd want a number 2 hitter to look. Real good contact, solid speed, and the ability to draw walks. He had issues with getting caught stealing last year after be successful at a clip of 88% in 2065. If he can turn around those numbers, he'll enhance his value tenfold.

11. Koy Ewin, RF/CF (Last Year: 10)
Current Value: 65/80 2067 Age: 19 Score: 84.39 Drafted: HS--Waterford, WI, 2065 (2nd Round, 39th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071

He's a lot like Marcus, but he doesn't steal much. He's a smart baserunner who picks his spots. Eventually, he too will be a top of the lineup option. His great range still has him in the running to patrol central, though ideally, he'll remain at his primary position in right.

10. Gregg Marshall, SS (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 69/80 2067 Age: 22 Score: 84.70 Drafted: HS--Monroe, VA, 2066 (2nd Round, 54th Overall), Reds Projected Call-Up: 2070

He was the headliner prospect from the Alex Espitice deal last year and he's being counted on as an eventual starter. He doesn't come with the greatest health report, but he's a plus defender who adds a little offense as well. Don't be surprised if he eventually is the reason Luke Tarleton moves to second base.

09. Adam Wakefield, LF (Last Year: 8)

Current Value: 77/82 2067 Age: 25 Score: 85.96 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He's now entrenched in a roster spot where he'll platoon against LHPs. Eventually, he may earn a full-time gig, but for now he'll split time with veteran Keith Oshel. He should be a doubles and walk machine and his minor league steals suggest he's an underrated speed threat as well.

08. Tim Ryan, LF/DH (Last Year: 12)

Current Value: 80/86 2067 Age: 26 Score: 86.62 Drafted: University of Washington, 2063 (4th Round, 100th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

I think he could be the next Alan Reed. He certainly isn't likely to hit for the home run power that Reed has displayed, but he's shown the ability to hit for average and walk a lot. He should hit for power, but it'll be gap power. With his range, I wouldn't hesitate to play him in the field, but his arm will always mean that there's a better option.

07. Ryland Wilson, SP (Last Year: 7)

Current Value: 63/88 2067 Age: 23 Score: 86.72 Drafted: Pepperdine University 2065 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

With the way his peak barely falls when he ages, it's like having an 18 year old prospect. Looking at him like he has the time to develop as a teenager would and you see why I've refused to include him in trade offers. He should develop quality control and top notch movement to go with a knockout Slider.

06. Vic Vega, RF (Last Year: 11)

Current Value: 86/91 2067 Age: 24 Score: 86.89 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

Last season's progression sped up his timeline and he's now the regular starting right fielder. His build looks like if he's on the cusp of having one more great jump, then he could be a very dynamic hitter. He likely won't ever blow you away with one skill, but in time he has the ability to hit for respectable average and power while walking at a good clip.

05. Paul Tobey, SP (Last Year: 1)

Current Value: 58/87 2067 Age: 22 Score: 87.25 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

He had some ups-and-downs in his development last year, so he slides down a good deal on this year's list. I'm still very high on Tobey, but guys above him are much more consistent in their development and are more of a sure thing. A good season can get Tobey right back atop the list for 2068.

04. Marc Permenter, RP (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 84/88 2067 Age: 23 Score: 88.28 Drafted: HS--Bridgeport, IL, 2063 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

This is his second tour with Cleveland. He ended the 2064 season with the Indians, before being traded back to the Reds the ensuing off-season. This time he comes back at a much higher cost, but he's also the future Closer. He has very good movement and amazing power - very few true RPs (20s endurance) have even 70+ power. Based on previous development, he shouldn't peak out until he's 25 and by then could be one of the league's more reliable Closer's.

03. Tony Beiler, C (Last Year: 3)

Current Value: 79/89 2067 Age: 25 Score: 88.77 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067

After catching a couple weeks of Triple-A at-bats, he'll be jettisoned to the majors. That was the plan all along - to allow Beiler to become Super 2 eligible and retain an extra year of control. He likely won't ever be a great hitter, but he'll suffice. Where he earns his value is being one of the best defensive catchers in the entire league. He calls a good game and has an absolute rifle for an arm.

02. Matt Neyland, C (Last Year: 5)

Current Value: 70/92 2067 Age: 19 Score: 89.35 Drafted: HS--Sissonville, WV, 2065 (1st Round, 6th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

As if not progressing in his first season wasn't bad enough, his peak saw a -5 drop when he aged. Meaning, he likely only has 3 or 4 more years to develop. His defense will be top notch, but his offense is still very raw. It's a fair assessment to think his power will come around to decent levels and that he'll walk to a decent clip. The big mystery is where does his contact fall? The projections now have his contact in the upper 80's. He may wind up being a guy that doesn't do anything great (but still average) offensively and with his defense, that makes him a starter in FCM.

01. Marco Gueler, 1B (Last Year: 4)

Current Value: 68/94 2067 Age: 22 Score: 91.48 Drafted: HS--Rio Piedras, P.R., 2065 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

What a big year he had. He showed off his potential at the plate during the season and then had a very impressive showing in the AFL over the off-season break. His power potential is through the roof and another big year will only further the expectation of him being a future middle of the order man-beast.

Last Chance HOF Vote: The Middle

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Thu, 13 Oct 2016 16:32:00 +0000

This may be the most important voting process of any of the last chance voting. There are a handful of legitimate HOF contenders. A few that, when looking back, should already be voted in. Let's take a look at the rundown...

C Todd Becker - Vote: No
While his RBI, OPS, and All-Star Game appearances are on par with the HOF trio, there's too many other holes that he can't make up for.

His Hits total would be the lowest. As would his HR (by a long stretch) and he doesn't have enough 2B to make up for the lack of longballs. While his RBI are there, his Runs total is lagging far behind. Plus is CS% is below average. All-in-all his hitting profile needed to be elite, considering his average at-best defense. He's nearly 200 Games behind Wilson Brown and that's probably where he falls short of HOF material.

2B Jason Caston - Vote: Yes
This one was REALLY damn close. He's has some things to like and others hover in the middle. We don't have many Middle Infielders (4 once you count Sean Vogel as a 3B) First, you have to realize that Peter Conwell's career was a bit short. So, some of his counting numbers are going to look a little low - that's what makes his Runs and SB totals look so impressive.

What gets him in is his Runs and RBI totals. They're solidly not the lowest and his Walks are also not the lowest as well. He left FCM with a better OBP than Peter Conwell, Jay Sullivan, and Danny Dudding.

He gets in, not because he was one of the best at a certain category. He gets in because his career production was smack dab in the middle of some of the players that were among the best in certain categories.

SS Joel Block - Vote: Yes
He's easy to vote in after just having scrutinized Caston. Block's Hit totals wouldn't be one of the lower Middle Infielders and he would be the top OBP guy up the middle as well.

Being on the screen, there was a stark comparision to Frank Prywes:

Prywes: 2,009 G 2,288 Hits 1,189 Runs 947 BB .305 AVG .381 OBP
Block: 1,974 G 2,288 Hits 1,194 Runs 932 BB .304 AVG .382 OBP

Of course Prywes displayed a lot more power than Block, but he also didn't play a premium position or have any Gold Gloves. Both got on base at a great clip. Prywes had the power. Block has the speed and defense. In my book, that equals out to about the same valued player.

SS Peter Potter - Vote: No
He's close. He profiles a lot like Jason Caston, but comes up a bit short on basically every level. Potter's Runs and RBI are about 125 each shy of Caston's. Potter's Walks and SBs are also quite short of Caston's as well.

It's really only Potter's Hits and Awards that match up to Caston and those aren't enough to justify a HOF bid.

SS Larry MacPhater - Vote: No
His triple slash line is pretty good, but it's his counting numbers that just aren't on par with the rest of the players in the Hall. He seems to be a guy that if he would've played just another year or two, he'd have strong consideration.

SS Rudy Delgado - Vote: Yes
I think it'd be a mistake if he wasn't entered into the Hall. He'd have the third highest Hits total. He's a guy a lot like Caston. He's a little short on some of the counting numbers, but it's the Gold Gloves that seals it. Mogul's award voting may be flawed, but Delgado was truly a great fielder and the multiple Gold Gloves represent how good valuable he was.

LF Collin McConnell - Vote: No
He's tough to say "No" to. At one time, he was the elite of elite outfielders and it showed having won two MVPs. The problem is that his elite status was short lived and his last four years were far from HOF status. In the end, he had a great five year stretch and then not so much. Seems a lot like Mark McShane's career.

LF Kurtis Pounds - Vote: No
He had such an interesting career while never being rated very well. He simply falls just short of HOF material. He profiles like Gary Bennion and if Pounds could've gotten even 2,750 Hits, I think he'd be a "Yes" vote.

CF Carlo Musquez - Vote: Yes
His bat profiles more like a Corner Outfielder and, like Murray McManaman, he probably should've been on that ballot instead.

However, he's here and to me it's simple. He's our CF version of Ozzie Smith and those 8 Gold Gloves are friggin' impressive! He was no slouch at the plate either. His Hits and HRs are comparable to the LF/RF guys. He seems like a pretty open and closed case. Get him in!

CF Peter Helm - Vote: No
Boy he's close. His Hits and Runs fall short. His SBs and OPS are close to the CF Average. And he has three Gold Gloves. Someone has to be below the HOF Average and he's close in a few categories while having above average Gold Gloves. However, it's a no-go. Close, but not quite.

CF Jamie Marinkovich - ]Vote: No
You can basically co-sign him to Peter Helm. He's close, but just not quite.

2065-66 Off-Season Trade Review

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Fri, 09 Sep 2016 00:48:00 +0000

This off-season saw a fairly good amount of trades happen. As usual, some were minimal and others were impact deals. We'll be looking at the larger deals and seeing who won and who lost. It's also worth noting that it was nice to see this off-season go without any (at least to my knowledge) controversial deals that required timeouts in the corner because of temper tantrums.

Gets:
RF Tom McElveen 69/93
SP Karim Gallardo 85/92
CHC 1st (#1)
CHC 2nd (#33)

Gets:
2B Steve Lay 83
3B Joel Tice 95

The prospects are very good and I have to imagine many people would love to trade their entire draft class for the #1 and #33 picks, so that value alone is worth as much, if not more than the usual, "Player Y for a draft class" chatter that good players usually receive in the off-season.

McElveen looks like he'll be a very dynamic bat. He should wind up with very good contact and solid, above average power and on-base ability. He may even be worth playing in the field as he projects to have mid 60's range and his arm will at least be 80 after he hits his career window.

Gallardo is overrated with no vital at or above his overall, but he's still pretty good. He projects to be mid-to-upper 80's in all three vitals. It's true, him having 90+ movement would be ideal. However, he'll have enough strikeout ability that if he can limit home runs, his movement will perform just as well as if it was 90+.

Lay sucks. He just plain sucks. In the field he's Dan Uggla's range with Chuck Knoblauch's arm. I guess at least he doesn't make a ton of errors? He's a DH in FCM and while he does have good gap power and pretty good speed, overall he doesn't hit well enough to even be considered a good DH as it's easier to find better production out of that spot.

Tice is a star. If the Mogul Gods can stand to be nice to him, he could wind up one of the all-time greats. Offensively, he has amazing on-base potential and eventually I'd expect him to produce better in the power department. Defensively, he'll commit a few more errors than you'd like, but he has a very strong arm, so he's certainly an option in the field.

Tice may be the most valuable bat in the league, but I can't help but feel this may be a bit of an overpay, especially since I don't feel Lay adds much value, if any at all.

Advantage: Leaning Towards Atlanta

Gets:
DH Jason Kinzer 79/83
SP Dale McKenty 69/81

Gets:
SS Moreno Vasquez 77/88

But wait, isn't Kinzer an 88 peak? No. He'll age during Spring Training and past agings put him probably dropping about 4 points. Then it should be noted that since he's pre-Window (and Career Window jumps are 4 points), he's actually peaked and (likely) on our sim to March 1, 2067 he'll jump to 83 and be done. No matter if you're playing in Coors or not, 71 contact is risky in FCM. He may hit some home runs, but if he struggles to even hit .230, it's gonna take a lot to carry him to a good OPS. Then there's the defense. It sucks. That's it. That's why he's listed as a DH.

McKenty is solid and certainly underrated, but with a May 15th birthday, you might as well chalk that up as an off-season birthday. In a peak year he has very little time to progress. Chances are he doesn't have much time to develop and will likely be one of those starters you throw at the bottom of your rotation rather than a top-to-mid rotation starter that you expect to put up good-to-great numbers each year.

Vasquez is pretty nice and just having dropped only 2 points when he aged over the off-season, I would expect him to have 3 more years to develop. He already looks to walk a ton and eventually his contact will be very nice. His splits are almost that of a switch hitter and the only downfall is that he's not overly fast. Though he's not slow and that defense will be very, very good.

Andy's Trade 101 blog was very good, but should have mentioned to people to be aware of impending peak drops and if it's in-season, be aware if the player has already jumped, so that you don't buy onto an 85/93 prospect that will inevitable be an 85/89 prospect next spring. It's not to say a player aging or jumping in-season is a bad thing and something you want to avoid. Not at all. It's a nautral part of Mogul. GMs just need to be able to place proper value on what the player's future actually looks like.

Advantage: Easily Milwaukee, Like Taking Candy From A Baby

Gets:
CF Craig Seely 79/87
SP Adam Trimble 84/86

Gets:
SS Ivan Verdugo 91

I'm quite surprised and actually impressed that Peter gave up prospects that have already aged. Both players the Angels are getting look pretty solid.

Seely may not be able to hold up at CF, but he'll certainly make a great RF with his fantastic arm. He won't be amazing offensively, but he'll be able to do a little of everything as I would expect all three vitals to be at or slightly above 80.

Trimble struggles with home runs, but he highly improved last year from 2064. With his vitals, continued improved could be expected. He should be 90+ in both control and movement after jump in his last pre-peak season, so if the home runs are corrected, he'll be a very good pitcher.

I'm not much of a fan of Verdugo (or any of the other SS like him from the past that have bene drooled over). He's pretty solid offensively, but where he loses me is his defense - it's simply not very good. It gives the appearance of being good, but there are plenty of SS with mid-to-high 90s range and his arm is poor for SS in FCM. His fielding is in the ballpark of average, but I would be more worried about the subpar range and Johnny Damon arm.

If Verdugo's range and arm were better, I think he'd be rightfully coveted by GMs. But, that's not how it is and I see short stops like Rafael Marzan, Edward Andrews, Jason Hutter, or even my own Luke Tarleton (who are rated considerably lower than Verdugo and think, "Yeah, I'd much rather have those guys than Verdugo."

Advantage: Solidly Los Angeles

Gets:
ARI 1st (#15)
ARI 2nd (#47)
ARI 3rd (#85)
ARI 4th (#115)
DET 4th (#129)
10M Cash

Gets: Gets:
LF Rafael Gonzalez 88
CF Pete Strafford 85

The picks are valuable. Probably more than the standard draft class when you consider that the cash is solidly worth a 4th round pick. That's where I think PIT should have gotten more.

Gonzalez is a pretty good on-base guy who can rack up some steals. He's also displayed better than anticipated power with roughly 30 2B and 15 HR to be expected out of just 76 power. In Arizona, he might dance with 20 homers per season. Mogul hasn't liked his defense via DRAA, but that is highly weighted on chance (where groundball pitchers can make OFs look bad) and I wouldn't be discouraged since he has what matters, quality speed and range.

Strafford is a great on-base guy and with being a smart base runner, he'll successfully steal more often than you'd think for a 79 speed guy. He has great range in center and can be counted on to play solid defense as well. Another great thing about him is that with only being rated 85, he'll likely re-sign rather cheap for his production.

In the end, Arizona was able to pick up both great and good leadoff hitters for a return that's not much more than it usually takes to get just one. Strafford and Gonzalez will make a great 1-2 punch atop the D-Backs lineup.

Advantage: Fairly Shaded Towards Arizona

Gets:
SP Pete Miller 92

Gets:
RF Eric Carter 66/79
CLE 1st (#12)
CLE 4th (#112)
$4M Cash

I got gmoney to review my two big trades, but I figured I will still leave my quick thoughts.

I had attempted to get Miller from MIN during the season and had even mentioned the possibility of a deal centering around my first round pick, to which weihawei was quite interested - enough to say he'd rather table our current package we were negotiating. So, I was rather surprised when he traded him to Seattle for what I felt was basically just one average prospect.

I usually sim ahead after re-signings to see which prospects hit their career windows and how much players drop when they age. I completely overlooked how much Carter dropped and got a gift to have dealt him. Knowing that he didn't jump during the season, an impending peak drop, and my overall OF depth in the minors made him expendable. I figured his power and walk potential would make him an interesting second piece.

I made the deal because I obviously think Miller will get on track to what his vitals indicate. I think he will do very well with my defense behind him.

gmoney's Thoughts:

Miller hasn't quite lived up to his potential yet, but he has spent most of his time in Minnesota behind inferior defense. Although 92 might be pushing it as a rating, he keeps the ball in the park, and has solid control and movement. He looks to be an asset as a young, mid/high rotation starter who has yet to decline.

Even before Carter's major drop over the rollover, Carter was not a particularly strong prospect. His best asset is his ability to draw walks, and that is probably his only skill that will end up being significantly above average. His defense is average for a corner OF, and his power is going to be that of a 7 hitter, not a 4 hitter.

This deal hinges almost entirely on the picks that were given, and although these picks are not awful value for Miller, I am confused by the Seattle decision to deal Miller while maintaining a fairly old rotation. This strikes me as a panic move due to Miller's rough stretch in Seattle. Not an awful deal, though.

Advantage: Solidly Cleveland

2066 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 00:58:00 +0000

It hasn't faded away just yet. After a draft loaded with picks, the system is re-stocked with intriguing prospects. While the system lacks true elite prospects, the Indians do have a wealth of players with starting projections. Many of them have builds that, with some good development, they could become top prospects.

The Grading Scale

99-92 Elite:

- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:

- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:

- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:

- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:

- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:

- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

17. Gregg Washington, SP (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 52/80 2066 Age: 21 Score: 82.54 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2065 (2nd Round, 38th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070 or Later

It was a little concerning that he didn't progress in his first season, but he still has a lot of upside and looks like worse case scenario, he won't peak out until he's 27. With plenty of time to get back on track, he should end up with solid control and movement with around average strikeout ability. He also features what could be a devastating Circle Change. Though a mid-to-bottom of the rotation arm is more reasonable to count on, with time likely on his side, his ceiling just might be a top of the rotation starter.

16. Francisco Azcona, RP (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 48/79 2066 Age: 19 Score: 82.84 Drafted: HS--San Jose de los Llanos, D.R., 2065 (3rd Round, 66th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071 or Later

He has a build that is primed to convert to a starter. However, with all the pitching depth in the minors, he may be better served as a reliever in the Indians organization. His control will unquestionably be good and his movement should eventually catch up. His Fastballs will likely trail off from his overall and settle around average, but his Curve should be top notch and his Change should be pretty good as well.

15. Jory Gardenas, CF (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 65/84 2066 Age: 23 Score: 83.60 Drafted: University of Texas, 2064 (1st Round, 19th Overall), Astros Projected Call-Up: 2069

Amazingly, he still hasn't progressed since he was drafted two years ago. Though (like with Washington), judging from his peak drops when aging, he should be a late bloomer and not peak out until after 26. His speed and range make him a quality prospect to roam center field. If his contact comes around (and he can be counted on with the bat), he could be a very dynamic player.

14. Mike Hansen, 2B (Last Year: 12)
Current Value: 79/84 2066 Age: 26 Score: 83.98 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067

Granted, I slightly tweaked the formula for this year, Hansen's drop in ranking has more to do with the depth acquired over the last year than his lack of development (as shown with his improvement in Scouting Score). I'm still unsure if I agree with the Scouting Score's ranking of him, but he does have good range and most certainly will have 80+ contact and probably 80+ eye. How much he can contribute offensively will be a big part of his value to the Indians, since top defenders are easily found waiting to fill in.

13. Koy Ewin, OF (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 64/80 2066 Age: 18 Score: 84.19 Drafted: HS--Waterford, WI, 2065 (2nd Round, 39th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071

He reminds me a lot of Keith Oshel. If he can be that kind of a prospect, then it's great value considering I took Oshel second overall in 2056. Ewin may shoot up through the system and he ready well before his projection. He has good contact and decent enough speed to go along with great range that will allow him to play all over the outfield if necessary. Like Oshel, he won't walk much, but overall he has the profile to be a very useful player.

12. Tim Ryan, LF (Last Year: NR)
Current Value: 74/83 2066 Age: 25 Score: 84.26 Drafted: University of Washington, 2063 (4th Round, 100th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

It's crazy to think that just a year ago I was going to be very happy with him being a good 4th outfielder who could start in a pinch. His progression in 2065 now has him looking like an actual prospect going forward. His contact should develop into the mid-to-upper 80's, he looks to have very good gap power, and (since he's still pre-Window) his speed will be a slight tick above average. He'll walk a lot and that might be a good combination for a sneaky good starting option

11. Vic Vega, RF/CF (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 80/88 2066 Age: 23 Score: 84.57 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

With Felipe Baires now positioned as the starting CF, Vega will now move over to RF, but a return to central will not be ruled out just yet. He looks like a guy who'll do a little bit of everything as opposed to a guy with one clear skill to lean on (except doubles, where he looks like he may be good enough for 40+). He'll likely be ready at some point next season, but he'll have to wait until one of the current starters is traded in order to find a starting gig in Cleveland.

10. Felipe Baires, CF (Last Year: 8)

Current Value: 79 2066 Age: 23 Score: 84.67 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 71st Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

As mentioned above, Baires is now entrenched as the starting CF for 2066. His cup of coffee didn't go as well as planned, but plenty of players struggle early on (Juan Bigil did) and figure it out in their first full season. He brings great range and some steal prowess to the table to go along with pretty good contact. The Indians' lineup doesn't feature a lot of power, so he'll be counted on to get on-base and scoot along the bases.

09. Alan Dyer, RP (Last Year: 13)

Current Value: 81/84 2066 Age: 26 Score: 85.10 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

If he can jump before he likely peaks in June, the gamble could pay off. For now, he be in middle relief, but with an early season jump, he'll have a good enough build to get him into the rotation in the future. With a dominant Fastball and potentially 90+ movement, he'll be exactly what I hoped for on Draft Day back in 2062.

08. Adam Wakefield, LF (Last Year: 9)
Current Value: 76/83 2066 Age: 24 Score: 85.15 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

While he's yet to improve his peak stock, he has made some nice strides to getting his contact on par for starting material. He figures to have another two years to develop and should see his contact shoot up into at least the mid-80's. Getting on-base with good gap power and smart baserunning is his game and he's close to doing all of those very well.

07. Carlos Serps, SP (Last Year: 6)

Current Value: 75/84 2066 Age: 23 Score: 85.49 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He had a great jump to get back on track last season. His cup of coffee showed he'll at worst be a bottom of the rotation arm. A successful trip to Winterball would really put him in the discussion as a potential top of the rotation starter. Regardless, he's still going to be a very good control and movement arm and a guy you can count on every fifth day on the mound.

06. Ryland Wilson, SP (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 56/83 2066 Age: 22 Score: 85.62 Drafted: Pepperdine University 2065 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

Not that I didn't like him, but admittedly, I wasn't as high on him until seeing the projections. They're quite believable with all three vitals being above his overall. It's a shame his repertoire doesn't follow suit, but his Slider should be elite-plus. He'll be an exciting one to see develop and see if the projections have it right. Like some of the other pitchers on the list, Wilson too likely won't peak until his late 20's.

05. Matt Neyland, C (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 65/84 2066 Age: 18 Score: 85.67 Drafted: HS--Sissonville, WV, 2065 (1st Round, 6th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

04. Marco Gueler, 1B (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 61/85 2066 Age: 21 Score: 85.69 Drafted: HS--Rio Piedras, P.R., 2065 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

Draftees not jumping in their first season seems to be a theme with me. Luckily for Gueler, it hasn't sunk his potential, like a few others. He still projects to develop into a very good power bat and quality middle of the order hitter. 2066 will be a big year for him to be able to reach that plateau. All-in-all, the projections have him with mid-80's contact, 90 power, and a near-80 eye.

03. Joe Schultz, SP (Last Year: 3)
Current Value: 86/90 2066 Age: 23 Score: 87.04 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2066

It's finally time to see what the former #2 overall pick can do. I have some reservations on just how good he can be, but it's easy to see that he should be a quality pitcher who can help nearly any pitching staff. In his seven starts so far, he's posted encouraging results. Once a drawback, now his top notch bill of health should help him be a durable workhorse throughout the season.

02. Tony Beiler, C (Last Year: 4)

Current Value: 71/86 2066 Age: 24 Score: 87.57 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2068

His development is going rather slow, but patience is key. Eventually he'll become a solid enough hitter to go along with very good defense (basically a better version of Matt Neyland). His switch hitting ability only boosts his value to start everyday. Ross Ray and Graham Logan will probably run their pre-Arbitration course as the starting duo, but after that it should be Beiler's job.

01. Paul Tobey, SP (Last Year: 2)
Current Value: 58/88 2066 Age: 21 Score: 90.04 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later

Winterball served him very well last season and he's squarely in line to being a top of the rotation starter. Maybe claiming him as an Ace is premature, but certainly his projections circle the wagons as a very good #2 SP. Like Ryland Wilson, all of Tobey's vitals are above his overall and that will serve him well to potentially get that Ace projection going forward.

Trading 101

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 24 Aug 2016 02:13:00 +0000

I know people are often scared to trade with me because they believe I always come out ahead. I like to think that isn't true, I always try to give back real value when I deal. But even if I do come out ahead I try to take a process that people can at least trust. So here's a few pointers that might help some of you:

1) If I'm asking for a specific player, I make it known right away that I want that player. If they can be had, the next thing I ask is for my trade partner to tell me what THEY like. I don't tell them who I'd trade. I don't tell them who I'm offering. I tell them who is not available and have them give me a list of what they want. From there, we can hammer out a deal or not, but at least we both have buy-in for what is being exchanged.

2) If someone else refuses to tell you who they won't trade and keeps offering who they want to offer - consider that a huge red flag. They're trying to sell you on something they don't want for something they want from you. Walk away from it.

3) If someone asks me about a player, I give them a list of players I want from them. Sometimes I say things like "I'd have to get X player in this deal". Sometimes I just pick and choose a few guys. But again I give that list of players so that my trade partner again feels like they have buy-in on the deal. If I'm constantly leading you on to what I want and there isn't real give and take....you're probably talking about a bad deal waiting to happen. If the guys you want aren't available, walk away.

4) Make a real effort to give value if you're going to get value. Yeah, we can all say "this guy has been here long enough for us to stop protecting him", I'd flip that:"You've been here long enough to know that if you're ripping a guy bad enough to think that, the deal is in bad form" Knock it off. Offer value.

Vetos suck for everyone. They create unneeded BS in the league. Avoid it. Please.

5) Understand the context of trades, so that you understand leverage, draft pick value, player age, finances, prospect value, the market itself, etc. Sometimes you walk away from a deal early because you know the offers are all coming in low. Find value later. Rushing things is always a bad idea.

6) Ask someone whose knowledge you trust. I never shy from giving my honest, un-filtered opinion. Even about my own players, good or bad.

Live Draft At 7 PM ET Sunday Night

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sat, 06 Aug 2016 15:12:00 +0000

Remember folks, we've bumped up the draft start to 7 PM ET. No, Andy did not screw up the Eastern, Central, Mountain, Arizona, or Pacific time zones like he did for the Off-Season Podcast. The live portion will truly commence at ...

7 PM EDT
6 PM CDT
5 PM MDT
4 PM PDT

Don't come showing up at 8 PM ET and cry foul!

The 2065 Amateur Draftee All-Name Team

noreply@blogger.com (Peter) — Sat, 06 Aug 2016 13:23:00 +0000

At this critical juncture in FCM history it is important to take a second, sit back, and appreciate the finest good-doers that will be entering this prestigious league this season. Without further ado-

C: Buntaro Murakami (Rice University)

1B: Dana Woodhams (Southern Mississippi University)

2B: Wheeler Diamond (Wilmington, IL)

3B: C.B. Johnson (Monclova, OH)

SS: Randy Rozenblum (Stockton, CA)

LF: Greg Veselinovski (Minnesota University)

CF: Jim Whetzel (Wilmington, DE)

RF: Brian Lyons (Clemson University)

SP: Chuck Wildberger (Peoria, IL)

RP: Chuck DeVille (Ventura, CA)

2065 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Sat, 30 Jul 2016 17:33:00 +0000

I’ve always wanted to keep up with a top prospects list. There’s certainly a good chance that this fails to be a yearly thing like I’d hope, but these things are always fun to look back on and see if a guy panned out or not, as well as I thought - even if the player developed, if they have the role I had in mind for him some years before.

Normally I’ll stick to a top 15 list. Sure, 10 is probably a more universally accepted “Top Prospects List”, but I think there’s always a handful more prospects (think the high 70’s and low 80’s peaks) that are worth mentioning. For this season, I have 17.

The Grading Scale

99-92 Elite:

- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:

- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:

- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:

- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:

- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:

- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

17. Adam Dainty, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/79 2065 Age: 23 Score: 79.33 Drafted: Auburn University, 2063 (3rd Round, 64th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He’s had his ups-and-downs. He’s looked like a legitimate starter at some points of his development, however, a few random drops have put him back in the platoon category. He’s going to be a late bloomer, but he projects to have upper 80’s power and will have serviceable range. The big question will be if his contact hits on his low-to-mid 70’s future billing.

16. Ray Wieczorek, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/78 2065 Age: 20 Score: 79.34 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

He’s been the ultimate project. Taken just as some 60’s peak 16 year old teener-bopper going on 5 years now, he’s managed to increase his peak every season. It’s possible that he’ll only be a slap-hitting base clogger, but there’s potential for his contact to really blossom into something great if he continues that trend of increasing his peak every year.

15. Jason York, 2B/OF
Current Value: 71/79 2065 Age: 25 Score: 80.75 Drafted: HS--Hamburg, AR, 2059 (3rd Round, 80th Overall), Pirates Projected Call-Up: 2067

Initially added as just a throw-in reserve hopeful outfielder in the Marcus Aguilar deal, I quickly became interested in his “95 Range at 2B.” He never walked more than 39 times in a season until drawing 50 free passes last year, so I’m interested to see if he could duplicate those numbers. Plus, while he doesn’t hit many homers, he had back-to-back 40+ double seasons. If all that holds to be true and he proves to be viable at second, it’s possible that with being a lefty, he could make up a cheap, underrated platoon with a righty.

14. Eric Grimard, 3B
Current Value: 76/82 2065 Age: 25 Score: 81.91 Drafted: University of Miami, 2061 (1st Round, 27th Overall), Cubs Projected Call-Up: 2067

To say his development has not gone to plan would be an understatement. He has the tools and build to be just as good as Umberto Trancosa, now on the Pirates. But, the sluggish development is also why I was able to pick him up. He’s good enough defensively that if his offense comes around to being remotely tolerable, he could still be a starting option. Judging from his peak drops when he ages, he’ll have two more years to develop, so there’s certainly time for him to get there.

13. Alan Dyer, RP
Current Value: 79/84 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.34 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

He was a gamble a few years ago that isn’t really panning out as I had hoped. He didn’t have an optimal build on draft day, but late in the second round I felt it was worth it to see if his control could progress better than expected. Though his control isn’t where I wanted it, he’s still a valuable piece as a middle/long man who can spot start. And just maybe that control will get the jump I’m hoping for this season?

12. Mike Hansen, 2B
Current Value: 75/83 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.35 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067

I remember getting him from Hick and he was hesitant, because he thought Hansen might become elite. I sincerely didn’t think he’d be elite, but I didn’t think he’d receive a few random drops and really stifle his development quite like this. I figured he’d be an above average starter who could go on streak of being very reliable. Now it looks like I’m just hoping he peaks into a startable player. There’s a chance Jason York jumps him next season and Hansen is the platoon vs LHP.

11. Jose Cauozos, C
Current Value: 81/84 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.45 Drafted: University of Washington, 2062 (1st Round, 17th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

He’s been on the receiving end of two depressing drops (one happening over the past off-season sim). On Draft Day, it was him or Neil Whitelaw and it’s certain that no matter what happens with Cauozos, Whitelaw would have been the better choice. Though with a good jump, Cauozos can hit the starting mark, it does appear he’s destined to be a platoon mate.

10. Brad Moreland, OF
Current Value: 80/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.40 Drafted: Rice University, 2062 (5th Round, 123rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

I drafted him expecting just a viable bench outfielder, but he looks to be one jump away from being a starting worthy hitter. It may be tough for him to keep a starting job with others coming up on the list, but starting for the next few seasons is certainly possible. He doesn’t do anything overly great, but he’s fairly balanced all-around with the ability to play all three outfield spots.

09. Adam Wakefield, LF
Current Value: 71/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 84.00 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He has that same build as John McNamee, Jonathon Woods, and Sam McCluskey, though Wakefield just hasn’t taken off like the other three have. He should still develop into an everyday player. He’ll be a fine defensive player in left, he has decent speed, he’ll walk a lot, and should wallop 40+ doubles. He’s the beginning of some quietly impressive outfield prospects in the upper levels of the system.

08. Felipe Baires, CF
Current Value: 73/79 2065 Age: 22 Score: 84.07 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 11th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

I go back and forth on thinking he could be the next Gary Bennion and then wondering if his contact will fall just short. Luckily a three month injury didn’t keep him from progressing last season and he still on pace to peak out above 90 contact to go along with good speed and amazing range. Here’s to hoping that contact peaks at 95+.

07. Alex Espitice, C/1B
Current Value: 86/90 2065 Age: 27 Score: 84.61 Drafted: HS--Santurce, Puerto Rico, 2057 (3rd Round, 73rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

Maybe he should be my starting catcher. Even though I know he doesn’t actually have just 72 handling - that’s a weighted average of his true catching handling and the ~35 handling Mogul gives non-catching positions since Espitice also plays first. He’s certainly overrated, but he’s got a solid, balanced bat. We’ll see how long the ultra defensive catching platoon lasts. I won’t hesitate to bring him up if the other two can’t manage to hit. There should certainly be a future role for him in some capacity.

06. Carlos Serps, SP
Current Value: 65/82 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.03 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

Apparently I just shouldn’t trade up to get the player I want. It didn’t work with Cauozos and after being selected, Serps dropped and then never progressed in 2064. Luckily, he shouldn’t peak out for awhile, so there’s still time to rebound, but right now, he looks more like a middle rotation arm, than a top of the rotation starter that he looked prior to being picked last season. He should wind up being a good control-movement pitcher who’ll likely always outpitch his vitals. Just how good he’ll be is the question.

05. Vic Vega, RF/CF
Current Value: 70/86 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.24 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

With the other options that could roam central, Vega likely slides to right field. His bat has lagged in development a bit, but he’s rather balanced and just needs one big break. So far, he’s shown big doubles power and only so-so home run ability. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes or if he’ll just be a gap power hitter.

04. Tony Beiler, C
Current Value: 69/86 2065 Age: 23 Score: 85.69 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067

It was risky getting him and no other reliable piece for Marcus Aguilar. We know he’s going to be great defensively, but he should have low 80’s contact and power with a high 70’s eye. That’s not a great bat, but it’s certainly serviceable for a defensive-minded catcher. With Jose Cauozos’ development faltering, he’s now the catcher of the future.

03. Joe Schultz, SP
Current Value: 80/91 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.99 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2065

The former #2 pick in the 2060 draft has bounced around a little, but I hope he sticks with the Indians. Back on Draft Day, I cautioned that his high health may stunt his growth a little. Barring any better than expected jumps in the next couple of seasons, I think my warning will be true. Still, he’ll be a fine pitcher and the projections have him with mid 80’s control and upper 80’s to low 90’s movement.

02. Paul Tobey, SP
Current Value: 51/85 2065 Age: 20 Score: 88.16 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later

A great trip to Winterball put him back on the map after an early off-season drop quieted the excitement about him. He’s still very raw, but the upside on him is great. I hate to say that he has top of the rotation potential just yet, as he only has mid 80’s control and movement projections. However, his ceiling is there and if he reaches a 90’s overall, he’ll look very good and be an arm playoff contenders would like to position atop their rotation.

01. Luke Tarleton, SS
Current Value: 84 2065 Age: 22 Score: 89.24 Drafted: University of Georgia, 2063 (2nd Round, 5th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

Tarleton’s development has went about as expected. He didn’t have much upside and time to grow, but he shot quickly through the system and is already peaked out at just 22. He’s a quality defender for FCM standards, but it’ll be interesting to find out how his bat translates into the majors. He walked a lot last season in Triple-A and would’ve walked over 70 times in a full season in Double-A in 2063. He’s shown solid gap power and a decent ability to steal bases. If he can just settle into a .260 hitter, he should become a .700 OPS bat and (as shown by the off-season trade interest) that mixed with his good defense makes him a very valuable short stop.

Brett Cloyd: A Legend Retires - A Career Retrospective

noreply@blogger.com (Corey31) — Sun, 12 Jun 2016 14:33:00 +0000

Quietly today one of the elite players of the game decided to call it a career. After 27 seasons in the majors and just shy of his 50th birthday long-time closer and the FCM all-time leader in saves Brett Cloyd announced his retirement.

Cloyd's legendary career began when the Pittsburgh, PA native was selected in the second round by the New York Mets. He came right out of high school and had to pay his dues spending his first seven seasons developing within the New York system.

Brett Cloyd became a full-time member of the Mets bullpen in 2038 and took over the closer spot early in 2040. He found success instantly with the Mets, ending his first year in the closer spot with 35 saves, an ERA of just 1.64 and holding his opponents to a .188 batting average. From there Cloyd became the one constant in a revolving door of relievers throughout the next decade.

Long-time New York GM/Owner Corey Sacrey made a sudden jump in 2050 to the Toronto Blue Jays. It did not take long for new management to trade Brett to the division rival Florida Marlins. His stop in Florida was a short year and a half but he still found success in the sunshine state. He ended up making playoff appearances in both seasons with the Marlins. His best chance at winning the World Series arguably came in 2050 (where they lost to the Toronto Blue Jays).

Looked at as a 37 year old who might soon be entering the twilight of his career, Cloyd was dealt in the off-season from the Marlins to the Toronto Blue Jays for a couple of draft picks and cash. Just as he had nearly 20 years earlier, Brett found himself again with GM/Owner Corey Sacrey and in a position where he had to prove himself. That is just what Cloyd did. In his first year with the Jays Cloyd ended up saving 30 games. Cloyd had arguably his most consistent season in 2058 when he went a perfect 30 for 30 in save opportunities. The next season, in 2059 he hit the milestone of 700 saves.

The saves just kept coming as Cloyd continued his impressive streak of 23 straight seasons of 20 saves or more that ran all the way from 2040 with the Mets to 2062 with the Jays. This streak finally came to an end in his final season where his age was starting to show.

Brett Cloyd would record save number 790 (which became his last) on September 9th against the New York Yankees. He saw his last outing on September 15th against the Baltimore Orioles where he kept the O's hitless with two strikeouts in an inning of work. The rumours of his retirement led to him receiving a standing ovation after every one of his final outings in his final season.

Cloyd ends his career with 72 wins, 790 saves, an ERA of 2.92, and 1207 K's. Records are made to be broken but 790 saves is one of those records that currently seems out of reach of anyone currently playing in the majors.

Always a fan favourite and always reliable, Brett Cloyd goes down as what all closers strive to become.

2062 Pre-Season Podcast Reactions

noreply@blogger.com (mattynokes) — Mon, 28 Mar 2016 19:18:00 +0000

1. On Jarman: BAL is more pitcher friendly than ATL. I do think Jarman is better than his numbers have shown in the past, but I believe the sandbox of Camden Yards is what's remembered for how the park plays and not the current nuetral park. And maybe he'll eventually play up to Ace level, but he's no Ace right now. His BB/9 and HR/9 do him in too much to be considered among the elite.

2. On CLE Dealing Players Away: It's simply re-shuffling talents around. I picked up Fernandes in hopes of trading Littlewood and once I did, it allowed me the flexibility to add Tavin.

3. On Littlewood: I think suggesting he can't replicate last year's numbers is a bit misplaced. 2061 wasn't even his best season to date. He's established himself as a .255 hitter, 30 doubles, 25-30 homers, and walking around 60 times. He could certainly underperform, but I think it's reasonable to feel good about him putting up a good season.

4. On Tavin: I found it interesting that Everett Daskal wasn't mentioned. I think he's more valuable than the pick. He has a nice vitals skillset and his peak doesn't fall much when he ages, so he should have plenty of time to develop.

5. On Type B Compensation: Over the past few seasons I've noticed a surge in Type B players not just signed, but even offered Fallback. I went to Andy before the 2061 season with my findings and he too had been watching this, but wanted to wait another offseason before making a change.

Why didn't we say anything to the league? It can compromise integrity of re-siginings and free agency signings. If people know the end could be coming, then why not get one last hurrah in?

Some people were concerned with Type A going to 16M/2 and how it would affect re-signing and free angecy. As it's turned out, it hasn't caused free agency to be terrible and GMs deciding to re-sign players. The Type A change didn't make a huge impact, but it got rid of unworthy players netting GMs good picks. This is the same as what the Type B change will do.