Ben's Brain

Best Bets for Week Nine of the NFL season

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:12:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Nine of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand who no longer has to waste energy rooting against the New York Yankees, the best baseball team money can buy...

Last week: 8-5 straight, 6-7 spread

Overall: 76-40 straight; 58-57-1 spread

Jacksonville 27 Kansas City 21 (+7): MJD owners have to be thrilled to hear that the Jags are going to do all they can to give the Human Bowling Ball more touches. Considering he has had 12 or less carries in three of his last four starts, it is about time. Whether he busts off two long scoring runs as he did last week, Maurice Jones-Drew will be in the mix for top fantasy RB of the week...Dwayne Bowe's overall numbers have been spotty at best, though he has racked up four scores for the offensively challenged Chiefs. He adds one, nay, two touchdowns and tops the century mark for the second time this year against the Jags 26th ranked pass defense...

Baltimore 21 Cincinnati 20 (+3): The toughest game to pick on the board, as the Ravens look for revenge, but giving points on the road. Joe Flacco has had a stellar sophomore season, but he and top wideout Derrick Mason struggled in their matchup with the Bengals. Expect the Ravens to continue to lean on their other stud fellow second-year player Ray Rice as they get back to a more balanced attack...The Bengals fantasy weapons have a tough stretch with games against the Ravens and Steelers, though continue to start Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco per normal. Owners will have any short term decline made up for them with a three-game stretch against the Raiders, Browns and Lions starting in Week 11.

Indianapolis 28 Houston 27 (+8.5): We all know how great the Colts offense is and their defense has been solid this season, but that side took not one, not two, but three losses to the secondary this week. All everything SS Bob Sanders has been (shocker!) placed on IR, where he joined starting CB Marlin Jackson. All of this is great news for Texans QB Matt Schaub, though he enters the game without injured TE Owen Daniels. The Texans are oh so close to becoming as legit AFC contender, but the Peyton Manning factor is too much to overcome in this thriller...

Atlanta 26 (+10) Washington 13: Odd stat of the week - Matt Ryan has completed exactly 19 passes in three straight games. In it of itself, that means nothing, but completing only 51.8% of his throws in that stretch is a bit concerning and now he faces the NFL's #2 ranked pass defense. The Falcons should end their two-game losing streak in style, but Ryan should not be viewed as a lock fantasy starter for now...The Redskins have scant fantasy options across the board, though Jason Campbell has a chance to post decent yardage totals against the Falcons 31st ranked pass defense. Regardless, he will not find the end zone enough for a big fantasy day, though TE Fred Davis is the best bet among the Redskins receivers to score...

Green Bay 31 (-10) Tampa Bay 16: Though Donald Driver (stinger) is now listed as probable this week, expect James Jones to be more involved in the Packers passing attack. Considering the third-year receiver has yet to catch more than two passes in any game this season, that is not saying much, but Jones has two scores and is averaging a staggering 22.9 yards per catch. Look for him to have a big catch or two against the porous Bucs secondary...The debut of rookie QB Josh Freeman makes essentially all Bucs skill players not worth starting, though Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward should receive plenty of carries as long as the game stays close...

Arizona 24 (+3) Chicago 20: Kurt Warner threw a whopping five picks last week, but he settles back into a groove and throws for two scores against the Bears. On the flip side, the Cardinals eighth-ranked rush defense puts the Bears offense into enough 3rd-and-longs to force Jay Cutler into tough throws down the field.

New England 27 Miami 17 (+10.5): The Dolphins will do all they can to control the clock, but the Brady-Moss-Welker trifecta will not need a lot of time to post big numbers against their sub-standard secondary...Following his breakout performance against the Jets in Week Five, Chad Henne has averaged less than six yards per attempt in two starts. He will need to do much better than that against a Pats defense that figures to be ready to stop the Dolphins Wildcat attack.

New Orleans 30 Carolina 23 (+13): The Superdome has been a home away for home for the Panthers, who have won seven straight in the Big Easy. With their running game leading the way and Steve Smith showing signs of life, the Panthers have won three of four games overall and face a Saints defense that has allowed an average of 29.3 points over their last three games. Still, the difference at quarterback will be too much to overcome for the Panthers unless the Saints continue to turn over the ball at an alarming rate. All the obvious fantasy plays are worth starting in this one.

Seattle 27 (-10) Detroit 16: The less said about this yawner of a game the better, but Calvin Johnson (knee) is looking like a better bet to play this week, though he will be a game-time decision...Matt Hasselbeck threw three touchdowns against the Rams and four versus the Jags earlier this season. He could have a similar day going up against a team that has allowed 18 scores through the air, second most in the NFL.

Tennessee 16 (+4) San Francisco 13: One thing that Vince Young knows how to do is win games. Sadly, he won't be helping fantasy owners do the same with his paltry passing stats, which in turn lowers the value of the Titans receivers, but his presence gets the Music City squad their second straight win...The Michael Crabtree experience continues to perform to rave reviews and the Niners rookie posts his first NFL score, along with 75 yards on five catches.

NY Giants 27 (-4.5) San Diego 22: If Brandon Jacobs has any real game in him, it will come out this week against a Chargers defense that is vulnerable up the middle to a bruising back. Considering the struggles Eli Manning has had dealing with his foot injury, look for the Giants to run Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw early and often...When the Chargers are on offense, they will attack, attack, attack the Giants secondary over the middle, meaning Antonio Gates is in line for a big day.

Philadelphia 30 (-3) Dallas 17: The Cowboys three-game winning streak has been highlighted by the Tony Romo-Miles Austin connection that should find the end zone for the fourth straight game, but will not compare to the numbers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin post for the other side.

Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Denver 20: The Broncos soon-to-be two game losing streak says more about their opponents then their own squad, which remains one of the best in the AFC. After losing to the Ravens in Week Eight, the Broncs face a Steelers squad that is ready to start the playoff push a little earlier than normal in the highly competitive AFC North. Big Ben Roethlisberger, coming off a season-low 175 yards in his last outing, smacks the Broncos for 250+ yards and two scores in the win.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Best Bets for Week Eight of the NFL season

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 01:33:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Eight of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand, but who got this posted late because the dog ate his homework...

Last week: 8-5 straight, 6-6-1 spread

Overall: 68-35 straight; 52-50-1 spread

Baltimore 23 (-3.5) Denver 17: The Broncos are legit, but no way this Ray Lewis led squad loses four in a row. This could even get ugly if the Ravens defense smells blood, though Kyle Orton will post fantasy-worthy numbers. So will Ray Rice, arguably the first-half fantasy MVP.

Chicago 34 (-13) Cleveland 17: When a 3-3 team that lost 45-10 the week before is a 13-point favorite the following week, you know it is an odd NFL season. Matt Forte should finally get some production going.

Houston 24 (-3.5) Buffalo 16: Only because the Texans defense is ordinary but at times brutal do the Bills have a shot at staying close. Week two with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center is not good news for any offense and he can't keep up with Matt Schaub.

Green Bay 27 (-3) Minnesota 20: For all that is holy, please, please, please let Aaron Rodgers throw three scores in a Packers win while Favre turns back into Turnover Favre in his return to the land of cheese.

Indianapolis 30 (-13) San Francisco 17: Alex Smith may ultimately be better than Shaun Hill, but right now he is not in the same universe as Peyton Manning, who gets back into 300 passing yards mode in the win.

NY Jets 17 (-3) Miami 13: Two of the harder teams to gauge in terms of whether they really can contend for a playoff berth or not. The Jets defense rises to the challenge, keeping Ronnie and Ricky at least slightly under wraps while setting up two scores after confusing Chad Henne.

Detroit 27 (-3.5) St. Louis 17: If two horrid teams play in a game that is blacked out in the local market, does it make a sound? As long as they do not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the Lions fans should have a rare chance to cheer as the home squad takes down the brutal Rams.

Dallas 30 Seattle 21 (+9.5): Miles Austin touchdowns versus DeMarcus Ware sacks. Playing against the Seahawks suspect secondary and leaky offensive line, could go either way. The proposition, not the game.

San Diego 31 Oakland 16 (+16.5): Unless the Raiders can control the clock with their solid road game, they have no chance against the Chargers potent attack. Tomlinson finally hits pay dirt and racks up 90+ total yards.

Tennessee 28 Jacksonville 27 (+3): Once again David Garrard and the Jags passing game light up the Titans secondary, but Chris Johnson dominates and Vince Young makes enough plays for Tennessee's first win.

Arizona 24 Carolina 17 (+10): Beanie Wells establishes himself as the Cards top runner with a power running performance against the Panthers shoddy run defense.

NY Giants 20 (-1) Philadelphia 13: Only because the Redskins continued their slide into the NFL's basement did the Eagles poor showing on Monday night get overlooked. Brian Westbrook is likely out and Donovan McNabb is in one of those Chuck Knoblauch type grooves with all his throws. That is a bed recipe against a Giants team entering on a two-game losing streak.

New Orleans 34 Atlanta 24 (+11): And this week's winner in the "who will be the Saints other productive receiver besides Marques Colston...Lance Moore, come on down! You are the winner of six receptions for 72 yards and a score!

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Best Bets for Week Seven of the NFL season

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:12:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Seven of the NFL season...

We'll skip the normal intro and get right into the picks, which of course are for informational purposes only. In addition, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...

Last week: 7-7 straight, 6-8 spread

Overall: 60-30 straight; 46-44 spread

Kansas City 23 (+4.5) San Diego 20: The majority of football observers have been quick to lump the Chiefs in with the ever growing list of NFL bottom feeders, but that may be a case of judging a book by its cover. Nobody is going to confuse the Chiefs with a playoff team and the defense still has a ways to go, but the Todd Haley coached offense has shown signs of life over the last month. Matt Cassel, who missed nearly the entire preseason while trying to learn Haley's offense, threw two touchdowns in four straight games before being shutout in last week's over the Redskins and even Larry Johnson has shown signs of life. After taking the Cowboys to overtime and knocking off the Redskins, the Chiefs keep momentum going behind the legs of LJ against their division rival. With that said, Johnson remains a long-term "sell" candidate...

Indianapolis 34 (-13) St. Louis 14: In addition to the obvious Peyton Manning-Reggie Wayne-Joseph Addai must starts, the likes of Donald Brown, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and the Colts defense are all worthy bye week starts against the lowly Rams. Factor in kicker Matt Stover, who is filling in for the injured Adam Vinatieri, and the Colts have what might be an unprecedented eight worthy starts in one game this season. Ride the hot hand of Collie over Garcon if you have that choice...on the flip side, Steven Jackson and Donnie Avery (hip) are the only worthy plays for the lowly Rams, who may be "looking ahead" to their epic Week Eight battle with the Lions, their one legit shot to win a game this year. Avery has been limited in practice, but is expected to play.

Cincinnati 20 (-1) Chicago 17: The Cedric Benson bowl matches the NFL's third-leading rusher against the Bengals sixth-ranked rush defense. Unless you have two other significant RB's, stick with Benson in this revenge battle, but the Bears will likely have more success with Jay Cutler throwing against a defensive unit that is allowing 254.8 yards per game, 28th in the league...Chad Ochocinco (hip) sat out the Bengals Friday morning practice. The injury is not expected to keep him out of the lineup, but be sure to check his status Sunday morning as late week practice absences are worrisome. Assuming he is active, continue to start one of the league's most consistent receiving weapons.

Green Bay 33 (-9) Cleveland 13: Going up against one of the NFL's worst teams for the second straight week provides Aaron Rodgers the more than realistic opportunity to throw two touchdown passes in his fourth straight game. As long as he can survive the beatings his offensive line subjects him too, Rodgers will remain a top tier QB the rest of the way...Seriously, how much must Eric Mangini loathe Brady Quinn to not get the Browns one-time golden boy in the lineup after Derek Anderson has delivered the following totals over the last two games; 11-for-41, 145 yards, one TD, two picks.

Pittsburgh 27 (-5) Minnesota 20: The pass happy Steelers will need to throw to beat the Vikings and without CB Antoine Winfield on the field, they should have little problem. The Big Ben-to-Hines Ward connection should produce another score, while Rashard Mendenhall owners will want to look elsewhere...The Sidney Rice breakout season is a legit development and more to the point, puts him ahead of Bernard Berrian the rest of the fantasy season. Though Brett Favre spreads the wealth, he typically falls in love with certain targets and Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe are clearly the apple of eye over Berrian.

New England 41 (-14.5) Tampa Bay 17: The London Bowl is a one-sided affair that will be interesting only to see how many points the Tom Brady led offense can generate. Unlike like last week, Brady plays into the 4th quarter, but the overwhelming result remains the same. Laurence Maroney should run well against a Bucs defense that allowed 267 yards on the ground last week and he gets the added boost of Sammy Morris being left behind for this overseas matchup.

Houston 24 (-3) San Francisco 20: Shaun Hill deserves kudos for all that he has done since being inserted into the Niners starting lineup, but he lacks the firepower to keep up with the Matt Schaub-led Texans offense. He gets a boost from the expected return of Frank Gore, who should post strong numbers against a suspect Texans rush defense, but the visits to the red zone do not produce enough touchdowns to win.

NY Jets 17 Oakland 14 (+6): The Mark Sanchez to the Hall of Fame campaign took a big hit with his brutal five-pick outing last week and with Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) expected to miss his second straight game, the rookie does need to get fitted for his beige jacket quite yet...

Carolina 23 Buffalo 14 (+7): Here is what I wrote last week about Steve Smith; "As long as Steve Smith (knee) is on the field - and he is expected to play - he will torch the Bucs secondary as he did twice last year. If not, it is officially panic time for his fantasy owners (myself included)." For most of this week, I did all I could to move Smith in the league I own him or look for a viable alternative, but as the days passed, hope returned. From Smith's own comments about feeling marginalized in the Panthers offense to the Bills ruling out both of their starting safeties, I have decided to get on board with the star receiver one more time. Factor in the Ryan Fitzpatrick starting for the Bills factor and the Panthers get their third straight win.

Miami 27 (+6) New Orleans 24: The upset special. With this game sandwiched in between the blowout win over the Giants and a battle with the division rival Falcons, the Saints do not have the juice to stop the Wildcat offense, though Drew Brees will throw for tons of yards. Ronnie Brown continues his Pro Bowl level season with 120+ total yards and at least one score.

Atlanta 24 (+4) Dallas 23: Roddy White and Michael Jenkins should have their way against the Cowboys secondary, while Miles Austin shows his epic Week Six performance was not a total fluke with 100 yards and a score. Sadly for Cowboy fans, he doesn't play defense which is the side of the ball Dallas comes up short in.

NY Giants 30 (-7) Arizona 21: Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are all strong to solid plays against a Cardinals defense that is 31st in pass defense, allowing 265 yards per game. Smith has cooled down some after his hot start, but the rookie Nicks has picked up his production with scores in three straight weeks...Despite his role as the cards third receiver, Steve Breaston has at least 66 receiving yards in four straight weeks and he looks to be in a good position to do that again with Anquan Boldin (ankle) a game-time decision.

Philadelphia 23 (-7) Washington 14: As if the situation is not bad enough in Washington, the Redskins get a pissed off Eagles squad coming off an embarrassing loss to the lowly Raiders. With that said, Donovan McNabb did not throw a touchdown pass in two games versus Washington last season and the Redskins defense currently ranks third in the NFL...Start Clinton Portis if he is your best RB option, but the rest of the Redskins skill players are bench options playing behind an inadequate offensive line.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Best Bets for Week Six of the NFL season

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:03:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Six of the NFL season...

Last week: 8-6 straight, 7-7 spread

Overall: 53-23 straight; 40-36 spread

Washington 17 Kansas City 14 (+6): The dysfunction within the Redskins family makes the Jon and Kate brood look like the Brady Bunch in comparison and it is only getting worse by the minute. Players are going after each other, management, the media and ever former Redskins heroes are taking shots. With that said, they still have more talent than the game, but rebuilding Chiefs and become the worst 3-3 team in FL history. Clinton Portis should receive enough carries to post solid yards even if at less than a four yards per carry clip, while Dwayne Bowe should make three big plays against the overrated DeAngelo Hall...

never mind...Kansas City 20 Washington 17. As my old boss at a financial services company once told me, don't catch a falling knife and the Redskins are falling. Plus LT Chris Samuels was already ruled out for the game and now may be done for the season, adding to downward spira. (if you think I am being negative on the Redskins, try living here. Fans are ready to take to the streets, torches and all)

Cincinnati 24 Houston 20 (+4.5): Houston has a problem; they cannot stop the run. Cedric Benson is licking his chops and leads the Bengals to a shocking 5-1 start, but Matt Schaub moves the ball enough to keep the game in doubt until the end. It would not be a Bengals this year otherwise.

Pittsburgh 27 (-14) Cleveland 10: Big Ben has quietly turned in a top-3 fantasy quarterback performance year to date. No reason to see that status changing in this one, especially if a Rashard Mendenhall illness has the Steelers passing even more and more. With Braylon Edwards traded and the Steelers stout run defense standing in the way of Jamal Lewis, there is not one Browns player worth starting.

Baltimore 20 (+3) Minnesota 17: Brett Favre and the Vikings have looked very good so far playing against the Browns, Lions, Niners, Packers and Rams. Now they get a real test against one of the NFL's elite and that will lead to a battered Favre and a home loss. On the other side, the versatile Ray Rice has another big day, this time as a receiver.

Jacksonville 31 (-9.5) St. Louis 17: How bad do you have to be to be a 9.5 point dog to a team that lost 41-0 the week before. Meet your 2009 Rams! Torry Holt and Mike "Party Boy" Sims-Walker get jiggy with it against what is a horrid Rams secondary, though Donnie Avery will finish with game-high receiving yardage total.

NY Giants 27 (+3) New Orleans 23: Lots of folks love the Bourbon Street boys this week and the Giants have injuries on defense and to their QB, though Eli will not miss the game in his hometown. With that said, the Giants are the best team in the NFC, if not the entire league, until further notice. Drew Brees will get back into fantasy owners good graces, though not an elite day, but look for him to attack the Giants secondary deep down the middle. There might even be a Lance Moore sighting in this one.

Carolina 24 (-3) Tampa Bay 20: As long as Steve Smith (knee) is on the field - and he is expected to play - he will torch the Bucs secondary as he did twice last year. If not, it is officially panic time for his fantasy owners (myself included). Even Jake Delhomme and Mushin Muhammad are worthy of a bye week start this week... Cadillac Williams should find running lanes against the Panthers inferior run defense and Josh Johnson showed he can move the ball for those owners in need of a last second QB.

Green Bay 34 (-13) Detroit 20: Aaron Rodgers should enjoy a rare game where he can stand in the pocket and look for Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley down the field. Calvin Johnson is looking like a game-time decision with a lean towards sitting at this point. Bryant Johnson should pick up extra targets if that happens.

Philadelphia 30 (-14) Oakland 10: I was instinctively going to take the home team getting double digit points at home, but then remembered that the Raiders were channeling their owner on the field by playing the living dead. DeSean and LeSean each find the end zone in this laugher, but the frustration for Brian Westbrook owners extends another week.

Seattle 31 (-3) Arizona 27: The Seahawks continue their turnaround season, while the Cards continue their slide back to the middle. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner will throw for three scores, but the Seahawks defense forces more turnovers to eke out the win.

NY Jets 24 (-9.5) Buffalo 13: Do not count on Rex Ryan's defense to get rolled two weeks in a row. Trent Edwards should be nervous. The weather is also looking like a factor and strong winds should keep Mark Sanchez from throwing his great deep ball to Braylon Edwards too often, but the duo finds the end zone for the second straight week. Terrell Owens will be jealous of that.

New England 34 (-9) Tennessee 20: Who did the Titans piss off to have Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on their schedule in back-to-back weeks. Entering the game 0-5 just makes it all the more painful and having the Golden Boy throw down field haymaker after haymaker will only make it worse. The Titans should take advantage of the Pats weakness at linebacker by getting Chris Johnson more involved in the passing game.

Atlanta 24 Chicago 23 (+3): Matt Ryan vs. Jay Cutler. Matt Forte vs. Michael Turner. These were questions fantasy owners debated throughout the preseason, making this a statement game for those that made the choice to pick one over the other. Fantasy wise, all should be probably feel about the same in this one, though Dirty Bird owners will be sticking their chest out just a bit more Monday morning.

San Diego 27 (-3.5) Denver 20: I've been a believer of the Broncos all season and last week's win over the Pats should convince the doubters, but the Bolts MUST win this division game. The Chargers do not have the power running game ideally suited to beat the Broncos, but they do have Philip Rivers and he gets it done with 250+ yards and two scores.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Best Bets for Week Five of the NFL season

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 23:02:00 -0500

Now that the NFL season has made it through Week 4, it is time to encapsulate all that we have observed and make up some way to early superlative teams. Without further adieu...

Almost 1/4 Pole All Star Team

QB - Peyton Manning

RB - Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson

WR - Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne

TE - Dallas Clark

K - Lawrence Tynes

Def - New Orleans

- The 4-0 Colts are well represented on this squad as well they should with their conductor Peyton Manning off to arguably the best start of his career... All Day and CJ each used one mega performance to help catapult them to the top if RB scoring this year, though both have scored in double digits three of four weeks. The top shelf runners have not been a consistent bunch so far...The Giants Steve Smith, or as Bill Simmons has dubbed him Steve Smith 2.0, has been playing like a man possessed and while he won't keep up this pace, he should continue to produce on a Pro Bowl level...The Saints defense as both a fantasy and real world star has been one of the surprises of the season. Look for more as teams are forced to pass early and often to keep up with Drew Brees and company, which plays into the hands of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' blitz happy scheme...Tynes, well, despite the misses he has scored the most fantasy points

Almost 1/4 Pole All Bust Team

QB - Tony Romo

RB - LaDainian Tomlinson, LenDale White

WR - Eddie Royal, Braylon Edwards

TE - Jason Witten

K - Rod Bironas

Def - Pittsburgh

- To be a member of this squad, one had to be drafted early/ or be considered among the tops at their position pre-draft and come up short so far, something the Broncos Royal epitomizes most of all. To go from some predicting he would lead the NFL in receptions to being cut in league after league by Week 4 is stunning...Less shocking has been the early season squadoosh that owners have received from LT2, but even more painful considering where he was drafted. He has the Week 5 bye to heal and the Chargers schedule gets a little easier in the coming weeks so there is room (just a little though) for optimism, but that does not change how little he did early on...LenDale is simply a Chris Johnson handcuff until further notice, a big drop his RB2 status last season...as for Romo, his on the field production has been the worst among the elite QB' with nearly all of his damage coming in Week One. Three TDP and zero picks in the opener, one score and four interceptions since. Kurt Warner is a close second, but he has scored in double digits each week. If Romo, who dragged his BFF Witten on this list because of his inconsistent play, and Roy Williams do not find a rhythm and soon, this could be a long year for Romo owners...The Steelers defense ranks 31st in fantasy defense scoring in standard, non-yardage allowed leagues. Noooooobody saw that coming, but they make for a great buy low option especially with Troy Polamalu expected to return soon...

Almost 1/4 Pole Surprise Team

QB - Joe Flacco

RB - Willis McGahhee, Cadillac Williams

WR - Mike Sims-Walker, Jerricho Cotchery

TE - Brent Celek

K - Josh Scobee

Def - Denver

- raise your hand if you had Flacco AND McGahee in the top-5 of fantasy scoring in their respective positions at this point. Even crazier, the young QB has a great chance to stay there as the Ravens have become a pass happy unit and the poised Flacco is using big arm to make plays downfield. On the hand, McGahee is already starting to watch his touches drop, making him a sell-high option despite his strong start...As for Cadillac, he is here more for the fact that he came out of nowhere to take the Bucs starting RB spot and has managed to stay upright through four games...While Cotchery and Celek made the team because they have exceeded expectations so far, barely anyone knew enough about Sims-Walker prior to the season to even make realistic projections, though he shined in limited looks last season...The Broncos were beat out by the Saints for the All-Star team on the last week, but their turnaround from sieve to stellar has been remarkable...

Ok, on to the weekly picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only...

Last week: 11-3 straight, 5-9 spread

Overall: 45-17 straight; 33-29 spread

Minnesota 30 (-10) St. Louis 10: AP is due for a monster day

Dallas 24 Kansas City 17 (+8): Cowboys get the win, but they have not shown enough to warrant much confidence

Carolina 23 (-4) Washington 16: Who thinks "the artist formally known as the only Steve Smith" spent the bye week watching film of DeAngelo Hall and salivating at the thought of getting to run patterns against him.

Philadelphia 27 Tampa Bay 13 (-14): McNabb and Westbrook are due back, but just enough remains to keep the close-ish through halftime.

NY Giants 28 (-14.5) Oakland 10: You know the Raiders are just awful when I pick the Giants to cover even while fully expecting David Carr to start for the injured Eli Manning

Buffalo 20 Cleveland 17 (+6): Nothing to see here, move along.

Baltimore 23 Cincinnati 17 (+8.5): The Bengals have been finding a way to win, but they are simply not as good as the Ravens, who will not lose two in a row all season.

Pittsburgh 34 (-10.5) Detroit 17: Not buying a seat on the Rashard Mendenhall bandwagon just yet, but Franco Harris could lead the Steelers past the Lions this week.

San Francisco 24 (-2.5) Atlanta 20: Shaun Hill is the NFC version of Kyle Orton; he may not get a lot of style points, but he just wins.

New England 24 (-3) Denver 20: Kudos to the Broncos for their 4-0 start and while I am a believer to a degree, they are not in the Patriots class regardless.

Houston 28 (+5.5) Arizona 27: Just as Andre Johnson (6-102-1) gets the best of Larry Fitzgerald (5-80), so do the Texans over the Cards

Jacksonville-Seattle, no line: Hasselbeck plays, Seattle 24-20. Hasselbeck sits, Jacksonville 23-17

Indianapolis 30 (-3.5) Tennessee 17: This is what happens when the most consistent passing attack plays a secondary that has not stopped anyone.

NY Jets 20 (-1.5) Miami 16: Going with the Jets defense against Chad Henne over the more logical home team in a division game on Monday Night.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance"

Braylon traded to Jets; Crabtree signs with Niners

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:06:00 -0500

Just a quick post on a couple of a breaking news items involving a pair of much-talked about receivers...

- Just days after he was allegedly involved in a fight/incident at a Cleveland night club, Braylon Edwards has been sent packing. The Cleveland Browns have traded their star receiver to the New York Jets for a package that includes WR Chansi Stuckey, Special Teams stud Jason Trusnik, and draft picks, which are being reported by ESPN as a 3rd and 5th.

The fantasy fallout is that in the long haul, this looks like a good move for the Jets and Edwards. No doubt the fifth-year receiver brings some ongoing baggage, but assuming no criminal charges are filed involving this latest snit, Edwards will get a clean slate in the Big Apple playing for an up and coming Jets squad that is need of a legit starting receiver opposite Jerricho Cotchery. Plus he is in the final year of his contract and will surely be on his best behavior as he tries to get a new deal, something the Jets seem willing to give him based on what they gave up to get him.

There is no immediate word on when Edwards will suit for the Jets, though he is not a worthy play this week against the Dolphins regardless because of the quick turnaround. Still, he should receive more consistent and quality looks from Mark Sanchez than he was with Derek Anderson/Brady Quinn throwing the pig skin. Considering he was getting dangerously close to becoming buried on all fantasy benches, this deal brings some pizzazz back to Edwards' fantasy value and he should produce like a WR2/3 once he gets up to speed. His presence does take away some value from Jerricho Cotchery, who has been receiving the bulk of the passing game targets and is off to a strong start accordingly, but having a bonafide receiver across from him will help keep the consistent double teams away as well.

As for the Browns, this is probably a deal they should have looked to make in the offseason when it first became apparent that Edwards and head coach Eric Mangini were not going to see eye to eye. They started the turnover at receiver in essence in the recent draft when they selected two receivers in the second round, Brian Robiskie and Mohammed Massaquoi, and the plan started to take shape when Massaquoi exploded for eight receptions and 148 yards in Week Four. The former Georgia Bulldog makes for a must add in all leagues as Massaquoi inherits the Browns #1 receiver tag, though Robiskie should remain a free agent, but worth monitoring. Stuckey should take over as the other starter once he gets up to speed with the Browns playbook and is worth hanging on to in fantasy leagues in that role, but he remains primarily a deep league option.

- The other headline of the day is the Niners coming to terms with holdout first round pick Michael Crabtree profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/10/07/niners-crabtree-finally-do-a-deal/on a reported six-year deal, though one year can be voided if the former Texas Tech stud rocks the Kasbah in two of his first four seasons.

What does this mean for fantasy owners? Probably not much this season, though it is worth taking a flyer on Crabtree especially if you have dead weight at the end of your roster or uninspiring receiver options like Antwaan Randle El, Kevin Curtis or really any receiver on the Rams or Raiders. Typically rookie receivers have a longer than normal transition period to the NFL and Crabtree will also need to make an adjustment to a pro-style attack, something he did not play in with the Red Raiders. Also, the Niners are not exactly a prolific passing team, though look for Crabtree to be at least their WR3 once he gets up to speed. He should make some big plays this year, but unlikely they will come consistently enough to warrant weekly fantasy consideration.

Dynasty and keeper league owner should be more aggressive about adding Crabtree as at least his rookie year will not be a total waste now that he has signed. Nobody doubted Crabtree's talent, just his head. Now that he is in the fold, look for Mike Singletary to give him a coaching lobotomy like he did with fellow knucklehead Vernon Davis, which should signal better days ahead, but starting with the 2010 season.

Best Bets for Week Four of the NFL season

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:48:00 -0500

The more my Washington Redskins continue to falter, the more I thank those that came up with idea for fantasy football. For the past decade plus, the fantasy game has provided a fantastic distraction (ok, maybe obsession) since the Redskins have largely been an underachieving and dysfunctional franchise and perhaps worse, have simply been to boring for words on the field. That trend has continued this year as even their only win came courtesy of three field goals against the lowly Rams. Because their starting-22 is formidable on paper, the diehard faithful maintain their positive outlook despite all evidence to the contrary.

The reality is that no matter how Albert Haynesworth's they sign, how many Clinton Portis' they trade for or how many head coaches they got through, nothing will change until owner Dan Snyder realizes he knows squat about football. The Danny is clearly a strong businessman and the Redskins franchise is among the valuable in all of sports even despite the mounting losses, but it is also apparent based on his approach that winning on the field is not as important or no more important than the bottom line. I am not naive enough to think all owners want to make all the money they can and frankly they should since they are the ones for the most part putting up the dough. However, that is not what he says. The Redskins stance under Snyder has been that their massive free agent signings and discarding of draft picks for questionable veteran talent is all part of the plan to win the big one. Yeah, not buying it, never have, never will.

With the offensive line breaking down, Portis looking 28 going on 40 with every carry and Jim Zorn appearing overwhelmed on the sidelines, the outlook for the remainder of the 2009 season is looking bleaker than the fate of Juliet on Lost. Still, this is a good thing, long term. The potential for that kind of doom and gloom season means 1) Jim Zorn is gone, perhaps front office lackey Vinny Cerrato as well (fingers crossed on the latter). If the Redskins fans are lucky, Danny will see the light, higher a legit GM/team President to run the ship while he focuses on making movies with Tom Cruise and not running his Six Flags investment into the ground. Of course, none of the elite coaching options will view the Redskins as a viable opportunity even if they get paid with no string QB in place which is why...2) losing gets them in better shape to draft their QB of the future. The free agent pool looks light for passers at the moment Jason Campbell is not looking like anything more than a competent, but uninspiring QB. Whether it is Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy or someone that comes out of the woodworks, the Redskins gig will look MUCH more attractive to the Mike Shanahan's and Jon Gruden's of the world with a young passer to mold.

It is hard to ever root for your team to fail, especially this early in the season, but any Redskins fan who truly want the franchise to rebound for the long haul needs to start rooting for a 3-13 season...

Ok, on to the weekly picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only. Also, the fantasy comments, which are simply the musings of a fantasy writer who spent way to much this week worrying about whom Cleveland would start at QB because he has Braylon Edwards and is tired of seeing a single digit number next to his name in the fantasy box score and do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com...

Last week: 11-5 straight, 10-6 spread

Overall: 34-14 straight; 28-20 spread

Houston 27 Oakland 20 (+9): Steve Slaton topped double digit fantasy points last week for the first time this season with 102 total yards, but despite his Barry Sanders-like moves, he still has not found the end zone nor provided anything close to what fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted him in the top-15. The good news is that the Texans offense has been prolific the last two games so Slaton will have opportunities, perhaps even around the goal line following Chris Brown's late game fumble. The upcoming schedule is a mixed bag, though he is a must start against the Raiders. Stay the course with the second-year back...Zach Miller caught six passes for 96 yards in the season opener, but the JaMarcus Russell experience has held him down to two receptions for 17 yards since. Expect Miller to be more involved against a Texans secondary that is on their third SS on the season. If not, it will be time to send Miller to the waivers until Russell is sent to the bench...

Tennessee 31 (-3) Jacksonville 27: Lendale White became everyone's favorite plug in play option last season when he scored touchdowns in the first four games and 10 through six games. The same cannot be said this season as the former tequila lover has only score and has not cracked 30 yards in a game this year. If another owner thinks White remains a weekly flex/RB2 play and will deal fair compensation, make the deal...This is a good week to play members of the Jags passing game, Mike Sims-Walker in most formats and David Garrard, Torry Holt and even Marcedes Lewis as bye week options. The Titans pass defense has allowed an average of 297 yards through the air in three games. Sims-Walker should be owned in nearly all leagues and one more good game should give him the tag as the Jags #1 receiver, especially if Holt does significantly improve on his 12-169 totals on the year.

New England 24 (-2) Baltimore 20: Now this is a matchup...Fred Taylor took the reins of the Pats backfield last week and remains the best bet going forward, but Kevin Faulk should be the top backfield weapon against the stingy Ravens defense. If Wes Welker misses another week, Faulk could be close to posting double digit receptions...Willis McGahee owners should continue to ride the hot hand, but his trade value may not be higher the rest of the season. Note that while McGahee had another big week with two scores, he had only seven carries and the Ravens schedule to this point as been rather kind to say the least.

Cleveland 23 (+6) Cincinnati 21: Upset of the week! This is not an X's and O's pick, but a gut feel. Coming off their upset division win over the Steelers in Week 3 and with the NFC North leading Baltimore Ravens on deck in Week 5, it would not be surprising to see them look past arguably the worst team in the NFL this week. Factor in the Browns are beyond desperate for a win and would love to get it done against their in-state rival and this looks like a perfect trap game...Cedric Benson, who shockingly ranks 3rd in rush yards, should crank out another big game for the Bengals despite the loss...With Jamal Lewis looking doubtful and Braylon Edwards expected to have his hands full with Bengals shutdown corner Leon Hall, Jerome Harrison will be the main offensive weapon for the Browns. Look for 15-22 touches for 85-95 yards and a score, making him my deep sleeper fantasy play of the week.

NY Giants 27 (-8.5) Kansas City 10: As mentioned in this week's "Deep League Pickups" article, the Giants' Kevin Boss makes for a nice bye week filler this week for Tony Gonzalez and Brent Celek owners. Though he has only six receptions for 102 yards on the year, Boss now faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed Todd Heap (5-74-1) and Celek (8-104-1) to post impressive stat lines...The hype surrounding Matt Cassel's trade to the Chiefs outkicked the reality of the KC situation, especially their horrid offensive line, but the same could be said for the negative vibes following his two lackluster performances. While trying to learn a new system, Cassel missed most of the preseason with an injury and the early season schedule has not been kind for the Chiefs offense. Do not consider starting him anytime soon, but the second half of the schedule offers more opportunities and by then Cassel and coach Todd Haley should be more comfortable with one another.

Chicago 30 Detroit 21 (+10): So much of the fantasy focus has been on waiver wire darlings Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, but Devin Hester has quietly been the consistent weapon the Bears were hoping he would become. Hester has caught 4, 4 and 5 passes in his first three games with a score and at least 76 receiving yards in two games. Better in non-PPR leagues, but Hester is inching closer to becoming a WR2 starter in all leagues...Bryant Johnson never quite put it all together with the Cardinals, but he is getting the job done so far with the Lions. As long as Calvin Johnson is lined up on the other side, the other Johnson makes for a spot WR3 play on a team that will be forced to throw most weeks.

Washington 24 (-7.5) Tampa Bay 14: If you have been holding out hope that your Redskins skill players will get the job done with any consistency, consider this game to be your line of demarcation. The Bucs defense, especially the secondary, has been hapless to this point so Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are all solid plays while Jason Campbell is a fine QB2 or low-end starter. With that said, this offense is looking among the worst in the league and only Cooley remains among the elite at his position. Clinton Portis will be a sell-high candidate if he rocks the Bucs this week, though late word is that he missed practice on Friday and is only 50-50 to play...Josh Johnson has some long-term sleeper type ability, Cadillac Williams should get plenty of touches with Derrick Ward expected to be limited or out, but you want to avoid all Bucs skill players this week if possible against a solid Redskins defense.

Indianapolis 34 (-10.5) Seattle 23: Donald Brown has not been a massive hit, but he has looked quicker and better overall than Joseph Addai. This should continue to be a split backfield for a few more weeks, but eventually the Colts will give Brown more touches, making Addai a player you want to consider moving if you can get a comparable RB now...Seneca Wallace will not have Colts top pass rusher Dwight Freeney breathing down his neck, but his presence in the lineup tamps down expectations for all the Seahawks skill players.

New Orleans 28 NY Jets 24 (+7): A reader this week asked via email which of the two quarterbacks in this game should he start, using Brees' off-week in Week 3 as the basis for considering Mark Sanchez. Repeat after me: unless he is playing in a blizzard, you should never, never, never bench Drew Brees. The same cannot be said for his top receiver Marques Colston, who faces the uber-tough Darrelle Revis this week. Stick with Colston if you do not have comparable options, but otherwise this looks like a good week to sit him...Leon Washington has been getting more touches than expected. That should continue this week as the Jets use him as a safety valve against the Saints heavy blitz and Washington delivers with a long touchdown.

Buffalo 16 (-1.5) Miami 10: Can Trent Edwards actually throw the ball outside the hashmarks? It sure does not appear so as Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have become almost non-factors in the passing game. Still, do not buy into Josh Reed even if he was the top producing receiver last week. The Dolphins secondary is beatable so use Owens and Evans as you would normally this week...The Chad Henne era should be good for Ted Ginn down the line as the speedster will finally be able to cut it loose deep with the strong-armed QB, something he was unable to do with the light tossing Pennington.

San Francisco 27 St. Louis 20 (+9.5): Vernon Davis may not ever reach his lofty first-round draft pick status, but he is in line for back-to-back productive weeks. After two touchdowns in Week 3, Davis could find the end zone again versus a soft Rams defense that has had troubles with tight ends this year...As silly as this sounds, the Rams passing game is probably better off with the strong-armed Kyle Boller at quarterback then the beat up Marc Bulger. It will not help wins and losses, but Boller's ability to go deep should help the disappointing Donnie Avery regain some fantasy value if the former Ravens QB gets the start.

Denver 23 (+3) Dallas 20: This week starts the legit season for the Broncos, who have benefitted from a light schedule so far. They are not a team worthy of their 3-0 record, but the defense is much improved and Kyle Orton simply wins games. Look for Orton and his quartet of receivers to get theirs against the Cowboys ordinary secondary...The Monday night game showed why Tashard Choice and not Felix Jones was the handcuff back for Marion Barber owners to grab. Jones has crazy ability, but simply cannot stay healthy with a heavy dose, while Choice has had no problems running early and often behind the Cowboys massive line. Even with Barber back this week, Choice is a worthy flex option.

Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 20 (+6): With Willie Parker looking like he will be sidelined in Week 4, Mewelde Moore suddenly becomes a flex or perhaps even a RB2 play in the deepest of leagues. Simply put, the Steelers ground game remains curious and Rashard Mendenhall has not impressed when given looks. Expect Moore to see more snaps, especially in the second half in what should be a tight affair...When does Chris Chambers get his picture on the side of a milk carton? No catches in two of three games and only went for 2-30 in the other. Seriously, what happened here? Didn't we all think he would become a star once he got away from the hapless QB's he played with in Miami?

Minnesota 27 Green Bay 24 (+3.5): The lack of production out of Bernard Berrian makes one wonder if Brett Favre can actually throw the deep pass, the route in which Berrian has made his living on. Until Favre shows he can, Berrian must stay on your bench except for bye week situations. Do not expect more than spotty production from Berrian this season...Beyond the fact that Aaron Rodgers is my fantasy QB in one league, I am soooo rooting for him to out produce Favre in their mano y mano matchup. He gets it done with three scores, but the Vikes run defense, home field and AP gets them the W.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Best Bets for Week Three of the NFL season

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:39:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Three of the NFL season...

Since I am way behind in preparation for my flight this evening to New Orleans for what will like be an eventful bachelor party weekend, I will just leave you all with some quick fantasy plays I like this week before I list the other kind of the picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only...These fantasy thoughts are based on players that are not overt starts each week, have been suspect year to date or are expected to fall below their normal weekly value. In addition, these musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...

Thumbs Up:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Trent Edwards, Jake Delhomme

RB: Brandon Jacobs, Fred Jackson, Tashard Choice (if Marion Barber sits)

WR: Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Steve Smith (NYG), Mark Clayton, Malcolm Kelly (for deep leagues only)

TE: Brent Celek, Jermichael Finley

K: Nate Kaeding, Rian Lindell, Ryan Longwell

Def: Broncos

Thumbs Down:

QB: Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton

RB: Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson

WR: Justin Gage, Dwayne Bowe

TE: John Carlson

Def: Falcons

Last week: 10-6 straight, 9-7 spread

Overall: 23-9 straight; 18-14 spread

Tennessee 17 (+1.5) NY Jets 16: While I called for the Titans to slip this year and miss the playoffs, I just can't see them falling to 0-3...I know Usain Bolt is the fastest man in the world, but I would to see a race between him and Chris Johnson in full pads, carrying the rock and having defenders chasing them. CJ would make for a nice underdog wager.

Houston 31(-3.5) Jacksonville 24: Good news for Jaguars fans; since your squad is on the road, you actually get to watch them on TV this week. Too bad the footage will be mostly R rated when the Texans have the ball.

Philadelphia 27 (-7.5) Kansas City 14: The non-football sequitur of the week...Philly sports fans need the win after watching more and more of the imploding Brad Lidge on the baseball diamond. Hard to see the Phils get passed the Dodgers even with their imposing lineup because of the chaos in their bullpen...As for Kansas City, if Zack Greinke is not a near unanimous Cy Young award winner, then all 27 of the Royals fans should take to the streets.

Baltimore 31 (-13) Cleveland 17: The Ravens offensive juggernaut keeps on rolling on, topping 30 points for the third straight game, though this time Ed Reed joins the fun with an interception return. The Joe Flacco-to-Mark Clayton will produce a long TD this week ...At what point do we start putting Brady Quinn into the Alex Smith/David Carr bust category? The Ravens secondary has been beatable this season, but Quinn does not possess the weapons nor the game to hurt them much at this point.

NY Giants 27 (-6.5) Tampa Bay 10: How about the "other Steve Smith". Been touting him all offseason and he delivered in a big way against the Cowboys. Of course, the guy that overshadowed by his namesake in Carolina now gets upstaged by his Giants teammate Mario Manningham. Smith remains the most consistent Giants receiver this season...If you want to make a run at Brandon Jacobs from some panicky owner, do it now before he scores twice against the Bucs...Byron Leftwich has thrown for 572 yards this season, The last time he threw for that many yards in back-to-back games? Weeks 6 and 7 during the 2004 season. Even though the Bucs will be forced to throw a lot this year as they trail late in games, trade Leftwich now if anyone is sniffing around for a deal. As the losses mount, the Bucs will eventually turn to Josh Johnson or Josh Freeman to see what they have waiting in the wings

Washington 23 Detroit 20 (+6): The losing streak continues in the Motor City, but it takes a late defensive stand by Albert Haynesworth and crew to keep the Lions out of the winning column...Jason Campbell throws a nice deep ball, but the Redskins game plan - or the QB's decision's - have him throwing it short more often. This week, he airs it out for not one, but two 30+ yard TD passes.

Green Bay 24 St. Louis 20 (+6.5): Covering the Rams locker room in their Week 2 loss at Washington, I got a close up look at the multiple bruises and welts covering Marc Bulger's back and arms after several redskins defenders unloaded on him during the game. The discoloration was so plentiful it made me think Chris Brown and Ike Turner took turns whacking him with a baseball bat...after watching the beating Aaron Rodgers is taking behind his leaky offensive line, I fear he could meet the same fate, but he finds Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley for score this week.

Minnesota 20 San Francisco 16 (+6.5): The owners that passed on Adrian Peterson take one step closer to the rubber room when All Day posts 135 yards and a score.

New England 27 (-4) Atlanta 21: After watching Julian Edeleman catch eight passes in Week 2, I suddenly remembered I needed to make an appointment with my ophthalmologist. Nice and surprising effort Julian, but Pats fans are hoping Wes Welker is ready to go...Will Tony Gonzalez score his third TD in as many weeks? Yes, yes he will.

Chicago 24 (-1.5) Seattle 17: If Matt Hasselebeck can play, Seattle wins, but at this point that is looking less likely than Serena Williams winning a Miss Congeniality award...Matt Forte owners fear not. Your number one pick busts loose for 130+ total yards and a score. Greg Olsen owners however will have to deal with another 3-41 stat line...

Buffalo 30 (+6) New Orleans 27: Normally I would say a team like the Bills would have a hard time keeping up with the Saints offense, but you have to be impressed with what the Fred Jackson led attack has done so far. Home field puts them over the top against a Saints squad that already may be forced to start their backup to their backup at running back.

San Diego 23 Miami 20 (+6): As the saying goes, you have to be strong up the middle to win championships. Injuries to C Nick Hardwick and NT Jamal Williams, who

Pittsburgh 20 Cincinnati 17 (+4): The Bengals defense shows they are legit with another strong outing, but the Steelers air game and relentless pass rush get the job done

Denver 23 (-1.5) Oakland 20: Raise your hands if you had the Broncos at 3-0 after what they went through this offseason? Of course, they need all the wins they can get right now with a frightening schedule on the horizon, but so far so good...Considering the horrific mess that is JaMarcus Russell and their depth in the backfield, aren't the Raiders an ideal candidate to run the Wildcat as their base offense?

Indianapolis 30 (+2.5) Arizona 21: I wonder if Peyton Manning scores as quickly with the ladies as he did against the Dolphins. Imagine what numbers he would have produced with a 50-50 split of the game clock. Wow...Memo to Bill Parcells: next year, go out and get a big time receiver. Ted Ginn is not the answer and eventually (I think) the Wildcat offense will found out. But with Ronnie Brown and that offensive line, this could be a formidable unit with a playmaker on the outside...

Dallas 30 Carolina 23 (+8.5): if your life depended on it, would you rather to rely on Jake Delhomme or Tony Romo not to commit a turnover? I will let you noodle that one over the weekend...

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore

Best Bets for Week Two of the NFL season

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:39:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Two of the NFL season...

The collective opening weekend of the NFL season could not have much better, from the hail mary finishes (Denver) to the unreal comebacks (New England). Yet at the same time, most of the supposed elite teams all showed cracks in their armor, more than I can recall in previous openers. The Steelers are really struggling on the ground. The Pats defense is not looking Super Bowl caliber. The Chargers barely beat a WAC team. The Titans still can't score. Surprisingly, the Colts struggled in that department as well and the Ravens didn't. The Eagles looked strong but at a cost, perhaps a big one of McNabb is out for long (or if controversy ensues when he returns). Only the Giants with their well-rounded effort looked like something close to the total package. Just something to keep in mind...Of course, the action was so good I did not really mind having to watch Jeremy Shockey celebrate not one but two scores. Ok, maybe a little...ok, on to the picks which of course are always for informational purposes only...

Last week: 13-3 straight, 9-7 spread

Kansas City (-3) 23 Oakland 17: Still not quite sure I am buying the Chiefs as even a decent team despite hanging with the big bad Ravens last week, but I know they are not as simplistic on offense as the Raiders. Hearing Steve Young break down JaMarcus Russell's limitations in the passing game during the season opener was like listening to all my married friends with kids tell me about how little Johnny is now standing up on his own, but still falls down a lot

Tennessee 20 Houston 17 (+6.5): Justin Gage may be the least known #1 receiver in the league. Nice stat courtesy of ESPN's Matthew Berry; in 12 games that Gage has played with Kerry Collins at QB, he has 42 receptions for 752 yards and seven touchdowns...Two years in a row now Houston has had a devastating early schedule and many owners will be cursing a blue streak after the Texans offense fails to get much going, though I expect solid numbers from Andre Johnson. Just remember, their schedule gets easier over the next six weeks once they get past the Titans, but 0-2 is a tough hill to climb.

New England 24 (-3.5) NY Jets 14: As discussed on this week's podcast with Andy Benoit from NFLTouchdown.com, neither of us are getting off the New England bandwagon that we both said before the season would end up on the top of the league, but the Jerod Mayo injury cannot be overlooked. The Pats overhauled their secondary and acquired depth on their defensive line, but little was done to address the linebacking unit which was already the weakest link....Mark Sanchez was poised in the opener, but let's see what he does against the Belichicks this week. I say not much.

Green Bay 30 (-9) Cincinnati 16: For those that are unaware, Cris Collinsworth really likes Aaron Rodgers this season, though he won't be thrilled with him this week when the Packers passer trashes CC's beloved Bengals...

Minnesota 31 Detroit 22 (-10): Every Adrian Peterson owner will look "brilliant" for taking "All Day" with the #1 pick after he backs up his three-TD opener with a 200-yard, two touchdown outing against the Lions...My personal hope is the Lions find a way to win so they don't end their long drought against my Redskins next week. Gulp...

New Orleans 23 (-1) Philadelphia 20: Though I like the Saints this year, picking them to win the NFC South and all, this pick is more about Kevin Kolb. Jeff Garcia should start warming up now.

Atlanta 24 Carolina (+6) 20: If Michael Turner is going to be anything close to his '08 form, this is the game he breaks out. If he does not, start being concerned...Steve Smith's deadpan comments to Jake Delhomme on this week's "Inside the NFL" about having never liked him as a QB were funnier than anything ever said on "According to Jim".

Washington 20 St. Louis 12 (+9.5): Similar to the Turner comments above, Jason Campbell needs a solid game against the Rams to keep the mounting critics at bay. Chris Cooley saves the day be shreeding the Rams safeties one week after Seattle's John Carlson did the same...Channeling my inner Lee Corso: Steve Spagnuolo had the Redskins number when he was the Giants defensive coordinator so he schemes his new squad to a closer result than the experts think.

Jacksonville 27 (-3) Arizona 20: Is there any less sexy fantasy player than David Garrard? The guy was a top-10 quarterback last year, but offer him in a deal to a fellow owner and you think the deal comes with a side of swine flu...if you do not need to cut a necessary player, sign Matt Leinart if you can. He is getting the Cards starting QB gig at some point.

San Francisco 27 (-1.5) Seattle 24: The rise of the Niners continues! The Seahawks will win the war, i.e. division title, but Frank Gore and Josh Morgan help with the battle...

Buffalo 27 (-4.5) Tampa Bay 17: Despite the punch to the gut type ending last week, the Bills should be fine against an overmatched Bucs team...LEE EVANS alert - no matter how good or bad his stats at the end of the year are, he will have 3-4 games with big numbers over the course of the season. The key is guessing which ones. After watching what the Cowboys receivers did the Bucs secondary last weekend, this is one of them.

Denver 26 (-3) Cleveland 20: For his next trick, Kyle Orton will pull off the feat of looking like a viable quarterback. Ok, the degree of difficulty is not that high since its the Browns, but still. Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall each post 80+ yards in the win...

Baltimore 24 (+3) San Diego 23: Mark Clayton will be a top-25 fantasy receiver this season. Mark it down...Every time I see Darren Sproles run I half expect to see those cartoon balls of dust form in his wake.Not sure how often he will reach top speed against the Ravens defenders, though he will get touches now that LT2 is out.

Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Chicago 16: Back-to-back 300+ yard games for Big Ben to open the season. Couldn't happen to a better guy...back-to-back four interception games for Jay Cutler to open the season. Couldn't happen to a better guy.

NY Giants 31 (+3) Dallas 23: We saw how the Bucs gashed the Cowboys run defense last week. What the Giants ground game does against them might be almost unseemly.

Indianapolis 30 (-3) Miami 17: Waynestock rolls on to South Beach! Reggie Wayne and the Colts passing game will play the Dolphins lackluster secondary like a fiddle. Come Monday night, his fantasy owners will surely be saying, "Excellent"...At what point during the Dolphins run back to the NFL middle will the Tuna and Sparano turn to young Chad Henne? I say after they lose in Week 9 to the Pats and fall to 3-6

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Best Bets for Week One of the NFL season

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:33:00 -0500

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week One of the NFL season...

Before heading into the picks, someone in the NFL office needs to get a tongue lashing with that initial matchup of the season Thursday night. Pittsburgh-Tennessee is a classic Week 10 matchup as the weather turns for the worse and the hitting gets more intense, but in the NFL season opener, we want some points! I am down with the Super Bowl champs getting the home game, but there needs to be a rule that at least one of the top offenses must be in the game. Loved the intensity in the game, but the NFL season needs to start off with some bombs, not just defensive beasts...ok, on to the picks which of course are always for informational purposes only...

Atlanta 24 Miami 21 (+4) - Hard to see either team reaching their '08 records, but give the home team the field goal nod in this one... Look for Roddy White and Michael Jenkins to make big plays against the Dolphins rebuilt, but still struggling secondary

Baltimore 27 (-13) Kansas City 6 - Entering the opener against a ferocious Ravens defense with an injured Matt Cassel and just days after firing their offensive coordinator is not good recipe for success... Avoid using any Chiefs skill player not named Dwayne Bowe if humanly possible

Philadelphia 23 (-2.5) Carolina 17 - Both teams suffered significant losses on the defensive side since last season, but the Eagles are more equipped to handle them... Brian Westbrook will make those owners that drafted him in the first round breathe a sigh of relief after a big opening game.

Cincinnati 27 Denver 24 (+5) - There is a blooming sense of optimism waiting in the wings if Carson Palmer gets off to a strong start. He will against the Broncos, but the doom and gloom scenario for the Mile Highers is overblown despite the loss... Chad Ochocinco starts the comeback campaign with 100+ yards and a score...Peyton Hillis is the most productive Broncos back in this one

Minnesota 24 (-3.5) Cleveland 14 - The only real intrigue surrounding the outcome of this game will be what future excuse Brett Favre begins to the lay the tracks down for in the post game presser. I'm going with the noise around the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame gave him a headache, thus upsetting his equilibrium, thus why he will eventually toss another nine picks in the closing weeks of this season...Avoid using Jamal Lewis and really any Browns skill player not named Braylon Edwards.

Houston 20 NY Jets 17 (+4.5): It is the battle of everyone's favorite sleeper pick (Texans) against the ladies favorite rookie QB (Mark Sanchez). Sorry ladies, expect the QB on the other side to make enough big plays for the win...The other battle to watch involves two of my favorite mid-tier tight ends, Owen Daniels and Dustin Keller. Giving the Jets second-year player a slight edge with a score.

Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 21 (+7): Based on nothing more than my own memory, but the Jags historically keep things close with the Manning's and I want to see the Colts show me they have all the kinks worked out following the changes on the coaching staff...

New Orleans 30 Detroit 24 (+13): Everyone's favorite Survivor pool pick will simply have too much offense for Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense, but there will be enough intensity flowing from the Motor City boys coming off the 0-16 debacle to keep things close most of the way...Everyone on the Saints is clearly worth a fantasy start, including Mike Bell if Pierre Thomas is out...Matthew Stafford predicition: 14-26, 218 yards, one TD, two picks. He flashes the arm, but the inexperience as well, which hurts Lions in the fourth. His lack of protection hurts him all season.

Dallas 22 Tampa Bay 17 (+5.5): The Bucs keep it tight in the home opener, but I am not sure why more folks do not see the doom and gloom that awaits them. Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks are not walking through those doors except for reunions...Marion Barber and Felix Jones each score and combine for 180+ yards from scrimmage.

San Francisco 28 (+6) Arizona 27: The Cards were just an ordinary team overall before their playoff run and now they face the dreaded Super Bowl losers playoff curse, not to mention half the team wanting new contracts. This week, the curse manifests itself in a strong ball-controlled second half from Frank Gore and the Niners offense after Kurt Warner passes for two scores in the first half.

NY Giants 20 (-6.5) Washington 10: The Meadowlands have not been kind to the burgundy and gold and that trend remains despite the defense sacking Eli Manning four times...Steve Smith establishes himself as the Giants go-to target with eight receptions, half for first downs.

Seattle 27 St. Louis 21 (+7.5): Week one starts the Seahawks return to the top of the mediocre NFC West, as long as they can keep Matt Hasselbeck upright. They do in this one and he throws for three scores. The Seahawks need them all as their weak secondary makes the Rams passing attack look downright formidable, which they are far from.

Green Bay 30 (-3.5) Chicago 26: Normally I would take the points in an early season rivalry game like this one, but I think this is the beginning of the Packers "Win one to show Brett Favre up" drive towards the NFC Championship...Jay Cutler's interception total takes a 2-1 lead over his outbursts, despite him getting heated over an undercooked brat before the game.

New England 38 (-10.5) Buffalo 17: Nobody knows which Patriots running back will be the best fantasy option this season, but Fred Taylor takes the early lead with a 14-75-1 outing. Of course, nobody notices after Tom Brady throws for four scores.

San Diego 23 Oakland 17 (+9): Chargers head coach Norv Turner always seems like he is a bad loss away from losing his job. That should not be a problem for him this season in the sad AFC West, but he will come dangerously close in this one despite the nuttiness that is the Raiders due to a strong ground game effort from Darren McFadden and Michael Bush

Season: 1-0 with winners; 0-1 with spread

Survivor Picks: Baltimore, New Orleans, New England; The Ravens are my top choice, but they also have sweet matchups coming up within the next four weeks.

Stafford should start...on the bench

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 09:18:00 -0500

Why the Lions are making yet another gaffe by rushing their prized rookie into the fray, plus NFL news and notes...

The NFL Folk must love the kid's game follow the leader. Whether it's the "Wildcat" offense, running back by committee or firing offensive coordinators, the plan among coaches and execs often appears to be as simple as the trend is your friend. After a 0-16 season, the Detroit Lions are hoping to change the direction of their franchise and get some instant karma by going with the latest tendency, starting your rookie quarterback week one. Sadly for them, years of beating to their own dream of left the Lions ill-prepared for such a move.

Over the holiday weekend, the Lions announced that the #1 overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Matthew Stafford, will start the opening game on the road against the Saints. Sigh. Yes Detroit fans, I know that last season the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens rode the wave of their first year passers, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco respectively, after being bottom feeders the previous year. I also know that you other QB option, Daunte Culpepper, isn't much of an option at all. Still, if you really want to get your franchise going in the right direction - I mean other than finally, FINALLY firing Matt Millen - plant a clipboard in young Stafford's hands and let him learn by watching, not doing.

Last season Ryan and Flacco became only the fourth and fifth rookie quarterbacks to start all 16 games and the first from that group to post winning records in their initial campaign. Now, that is a trend every cellar dweller would like to follow, especially one that pulled and 0-fer like the Lions, but the pieces are not in place.

Because of a stout and playmaking defense, along with a strong ground attack, the Ravens were able to take pressure off Flacco and allow him to be more of a handoff giver than pass thrower. The 2008 Lions allowed an NFL-high 517 points. The Falcons asked a little more of Ryan, but much of their recent downturn came from the fallout from the Michael Vick controversy, not a total dearth of talent.

The same cannot be said in the Motor City, where the drafted receivers year in and year out instead of the forming a foundation of big uglies up front. I expect the new Lions regime will bring an attitude adjustment, but it will take some time to improve the woeful lines on both sides of the ball, so why let Stafford play the role of sitting duck until that time.

Oh and did we mention that after they try and keep pace with the Saints high-powered attack in the opener, the Lions face the Vikings, Redskins, Bears and Steelers defenses in consecutive weeks, all considered to be among the elite units this season. By sticking Stafford into the lineup off the bat against those bloodhounds, the essentially expansion Lions are risking the same fate for their young QB as the Houston Texans did for their prodigy David Carr, who got battered so often behind a spotty offensive line that even Ike Turner thought it was cruel.

Plus, while it is not hard to beat out Culpepper for a starting gig at this point in the former star's fading career, Stafford did not exactly light up the world in the preseason. This from the Detroit Free Press:

"The stats alone don't show why Stafford beat out veteran Daunte Culpepper. Each led the Lions to a touchdown and field goal. Stafford played four exhibitions, Culpepper three. Stafford threw four interceptions, Culpepper none. Stafford completed 54.5% of his passes, Culpepper 64.7%. Stafford's passer rating was 52.8, Culpepper's 89.6."

The article points out that Stafford's arm strength and aggressiveness will allow the Lions opportunities for more big plays than the light-tossing Culpepper will at this point. Hey, I am not now or ever endorsing the post-Randy Moss version of Culpepper to be anyone's starting QB, but that's another personnel gaffe on the part of the Lions for allowing that to be the fallback choice.

Fantasy owners can ponder the talented Stafford in keeper/dynasty leagues in part because there are some positives on the roster with Calvin Johnson on the outside, Kevin Smith in the backfield and LB Ernie Sims leading the defensive crew, but this team is far from competing with the big boys. If they stick with the plan of allowing Stafford to get out there before the rest of the team is up to code, it will be the young QB who is falling back, both in terms of the trajectory of the league's other young passers and on his ass.

[More]

Giving credit where credit is due

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:01:00 -0500

Some quick thoughts on Brett Favre and other items of interest from a largely entertaining Monday Night game, plus the oddly timed firing of Chiefs OC Chan Gailey and how it affects that offense...

- I am as tired of the entire Brett Favre saga as much as the next person (assuming the next person isn't Rachel Nichols or one the other ESPN reporters who were forced to camp out on Favre's Hattiesburg, MS front lawn all summer), but I have to admit I was rather impressed with what #4 showed against the Texans.

From a pure football standpoint, my questions with this latest Favre comeback included the status of his injured arm (elbow, rotator cuff) and the likely lack of rapport, timing that he would have with his offensive teammates considering he was showing up about an hour before the season started.

On the first point, Favre's arm looked lively and he did not appear to be pulling any punches on his passes against an improving Texans defense. Though he was more game manager than gunslinger, the Vikes new QB was more than effective, completing 13-of-18 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. There was also no sign of discomfort from a cracked rib that Favre himself speculated about before the game. (Seriously, if we are going to waste all this time on Favre, shouldn't there be some sort of inquiry into the validity of all these suppossed injuries that he suffers yet heroically plays through? I am not calling BS on all them, but the level of exaggeration grows each year. At this point, it is hard to know what is real and what is myth when it comes to John Madden's favorite human being.

As for getting the offense to click, certainly having Adrian Peterson bust out a 75-yard scoring run on the first play from scrimmage helps. The Vikes offense "only" managed to score on two other drives, one starting out from deep inside Texans territory, but Favre orchestrated a nine-play, 74-yard drive that ended with a 28-yard catch and run score by Chester Taylor. They also had only one 3-and-out series with Mr. Wrangler Jeans directing traffic. With AP, Taylor, Bernard Berrian, rookie Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe, Favre has plenty of weapons at his disposal and his familiarity with the playbook appears to be making the introduction to the players on the field an easy one, schism and all.

Fantasy owners need not fly Favre up their draft boards as the run-heavy attack will limit his numbers most weeks, but he could still post three touchdowns in a given game, making him a potential rotation fantasy option for some and a mid-to-high QB@2 for most.

- speaking of the ultra-quick Harvin, the in-game results were mixed (had three receptions for 31 yards, but missed a catchable pass in end zone and was flagged for two penalties), but the potential he flashed was bold and bright. The Vikes lined him all over the field, including as a wildcat QB with Favre sent out wide, and he showed the ability to break tackles in the open field. He will not be a week in, week out type option, but Harvin is the kind of lightning in the bottle type player that defenses fear (seriously, how will defenses be able to focus on him AND Peterson at the same time) and fantasy owners crave. His ADP has jumped two rounds since July, but his game breaking potential makes him a fair value and upside play as a WR3/flex type even in the 8th round.

- Watching AP sprint down the right sideline for that long score erased any lingering concerns I had about taking him with the #1 overall pick in an upcoming non-PPR draft (was debating trading the pick, not taking another player), but seeing that Chester Taylor score reminded me that I will also need to stock up on Maalox before the season starts.

- In terms of where he is going in drafts, Matt Schaub is my favorite fantasy quarterback this year outside of the top-4, but the brittle one showed once again why he is also one of the scariest passer options this season when he suffered an apparent ankle injury late in the first half. The Texans quarterback gutted out the drive, one that was capped off by a Steve Slaton score, but did not return, though the team said he could have if it was a regular season game. Since the injury factor is the biggest knock against Schaub, seeing him limp around did not change his ranking (7th on my draft board) in my eyes, but it emphasized the point that Schaub owners need to take a quality QB2 perhaps a round or two earlier than they normally would.

- Kevin Walter, another one of the Texans I love this year, went out in the first quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return. Walter's q-rating among fantasy owners has been rather low already and this will not help his cause, making the Texans #2 receiver a very attractive value pick around the 8th round, assuming the injury is not serious. Andre Davis would likely step in if Walter missed time and would be worth a roster spot in most leagues if pressed into service.

- In other news, the firing of Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey means Todd Haley will pull triple duty as rookie head coach, quarterbacks coach and veteran play caller, having served in that third role as the OC for the Cardinals during their Super Bowl run last season. Based on Haley's volume passing approach with the Cards, it was already assumed the Chiefs would throw early and often and those expectations may now be understated with their no longer being a middle man in Gailey calling the plays. This should be good news for Matt Cassel, once he returns from injury, along with Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs other receivers. The same cannot be said for the overvalued Larry Johnson, who caught only 12 passes last year and was already in danger of losing playing time to backup and third down RB Jamaal Charles.

Someone needs to explain to me...

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:18:00 -0500

Talking about various fantasy trends like Larry Johnson getting drafted to high, Brian Westbrook too low and why a certain rookie receiver is getting picked at all...

At this point in the pre-season, one's brain starts to get a little fried if you have been staring at the same names and numbers for as long as many of us have. Of course, anyone that has crammed for a test knows that you continually have to seek new ways to view the data so that you are sure all angles are covered and to help keep the info accessible in between your ears if current methods are becoming stale.

So, even after shaking up my research methodology this week (using Firefox instead of Internet Explorer, watching games on the recliner instead of the couch, going with Honest Tea over Diet Coke as the non-alcoholic beverage of choice), there are still some nuggets that surprise , if not outright stun me. We will discuss many of these topics on this week's FFToolbox podcast, but for now, someone needs to explain to me…

- Why Larry Johnson is still being drafted among the top-25 running backs.

This seems to be all about name recognition, because otherwise why would a soon-to-be 30-year old running back playing behind a weak o-line in a pass-happy offense with a young pup nipping at his heels for playing time be getting drafted like he is a RB2 option. Yes, LJ had solid overall numbers last year until you dig a little deeper and realize that he did most of his damage in four games:

4 games: 5.89 yards per carry (88 carries for 519 yards) and five touchdowns
The rest: 3.38 yards per carry (105 carries for 355 yards) with no scores

Included in those four games was a 28-198-2 performance against the hapless Broncos defense. Johnson averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in only three games of the 12 games he played as he missed at least four games for the second straight year. It is also hard to see how he will be a great fit in this pass-oriented attack - even more so now that Chan Gailey has been canned as OC and Todd Haley will call plays - when he posted a paltry 12 receptions for 74 yards last season, his lowest numbers since becoming a regular. Who outside of coach Haley's immediate family believes the Chiefs will be ahead in the fourth quarter often enough to feed Johnson the ball, a scenario that rarely played out last year as he had only game with at least 20 carries after Week 4. Also, at some point, don't we think the Chiefs new regime is going to want to see what Jamaal Charles, that young pup, can produce with a heavier workload?

Everyone has a fair value that comes into play and Johnson can be a spot starter/bye week option in the right matchups, but with all the potential downside, why jump on that grenade if better options exist. Take a promising player like Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart or any of the top rookie backs and let some jock sniffing owner in your league take a walk down memory lane with Johnson if they want...

- Why anyone is still drafting Jay Cutler among the top-10 quarterbacks.

Perhaps this is being a bit nitpicking, seeing as how Cutler's current ADP according to FFToolbox has him as the 10th passer going off the board. (Hopefully he does not demand a trade to ESPN.com or another fantasy site after reading this). And yes, his real world potential is up there and why Bears fans are rather sky high about not having to look at another pedestrian signal caller for the foreseeable future. However, the Bears remain a run-first team. Their group of wide receivers collectively may be the least impressive in the league heading into the season. The defense is strong, certainly good enough to avoid many lopsided scores in the second half, thus not affording Cutler the chance for many games with 35+ pass attempts like he had in Denver. The weather is not so hot in Chi-town the final two months of the season. Oh, it should also be pointed out that there are plenty of fantasy QB options to choose from.

Here are the passers I would definitely take over the Bears petchulant child of quarterback in some order: Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Warner, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, McNabb, Ryan, Palmer. The last four names all have a deeper assortment of passing game weapons, including legit #1 targets and only Ryan plays in a similar run-oriented attack.

There is a sharp drop among fantasy quarterbacks after the top 12-14 – especially if Matt Cassel misses significantly more time than just week one with his preseason injury – and Cutler's big arm potential makes for a fine starter IF he is paired with another strong passer, so I am not promoting a Jay Cutler boycott (though I would have been all for a bonfire of Broncos #6 jerseys over the summer).

Again, for those ready to send off a nasty gram of an email telling me how good Cutler looked Sunday night against his former team or how is a top shelf franchise quarterback, please realize we are talking fantasy football and not real football. Troy Aikman won three Super Bowls and he rarely was a sought after fantasy player...

- Why readers and fantasy owners are continuing to cling to the idea that the Cardinals backfield will be a pure RBBC long term.

I was one of those folks that bought into the Tim Hightower hype last year. That is, until I saw him play on a regular basis. Yes, the 2008 fifth-round pick scored 10 touchdowns and caught 34 passes, but he also showed poor instincts in terms of finding running lanes and averaged a horrific 2.8 yards per carry in the process. Hightower had only one – ONE – game with over 37 rushing yards despite the benching of Edgerrin James during the season and every defense the Cards faced dropping all but the nose tackle into pass coverage. Yet, even this very morning, I still get emails saying the Cards will use a backfield by committee and how I am wrong on Touchdown Timmy.

Hightower's new backfield partner, Chris "Beanie" Wells, is actually the bigger of the two, not to mention the far more talented runner, so the goal line touches will eventually fall the rookie's way. Now, Hightower will not be ignored, especially in the passing game since Wells is not a factor in that portion of the offense, hauling in only 15 receptions in three years at Ohio State. However, that alone does not a committee make or the same would be said about the situations in Minnesota and Atlanta. Wells will be the primary back and the Cards could actually look to run more this year now that the pass-heavy approach of former offensive coordinator Todd Haley has moved to Kansas City, giving more of an opportunity for Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt to install a more rugged approach on offense, harkening back to his days with the Steelers.

As the rook gets up to speed – Wells missed some time in camp and thus has not become the entrenched starter already despite strong showings, which may lead to explaining the aforementioned mindset - Hightower should have some value as a flex player very early on, but that is about it barring injury. Wells has a history of boo-boo's (and the most legit reason why someone might pass on him), so those that draft him should take Hightower as a handcuff, fair enough. However, as a standalone pick, I'd rather take fading starters who will have consistent touches like Jamal Lewis, youngsters who have not been exposed yet like LeSean McCoy or more all-around backup types like Ahmad Bradshaw and Fred Jackson...

- Why rookies like Wells and Donald Brown are going in drafts a full 2-3 rounds later than fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno, who has missed almost all of the preseason with a sprained MCL and is playing alongside three backs (Buckhalter, Jordan, Hillis) that figure to get touches. Moreno likely ends with the best rookie stats, but the margin between him and the competition is not two rounds difference, not even close.
- Why an owner, in any format, would reach on Tony Gonzalez in the 4th or 5th round instead of waiting for the likes of Owen Daniels, John Carlson or Dustin Keller four to five rounds later.
- Why Kevin Walter seems to get scant respect in the fantasy world.
- Why someone in a non-PPR league would take T. J. Houshmandzadeh over his former tag team receiving partner Chad Ochocinco.
- Why Brian Westbrook is falling out of the top 10-14 picks in 12+ team leagues now that he is back practicing and reportedly without incident.
- Why anyone in a non-keeper league is bothering drafting Jeremy Maclin this year. Rookie receivers take time to develop, let alone those that did not play in a pro-style offense in college like the former Mizzou star. Next year.
- Why so few are noticing that the sneaky fantasy play among Eagles receivers is Jason Avant, who is their "emerging go-to receiver" according to this article.
- Why anyone bothered seeing that G.I. Joe flick over the far, far superior "District 9".
- Why sooooo many owners are blindly stating that Larry Fitzgerald is the flat out #1 fantasy receiver this year when an equal or perhaps better case can be made for Andre Johnson, Randy Moss or even Calvin Johnson.
- Why I seem to be the only one that thinks Steve Smith will be the top Giants receiver this season.
- Why after all these years owners still bother taking a kicker anywhere before their next-to-last round pick. The rule applies this year to all kickers not named Gostkowski and even then, think long and hard.
- Why, after she starred in a big summer movie and was seemingly on the cover of every magazine this summer, any males between the ages of 13-50 do not know who Megan Fox is at this point. (Seriously, two of my now former friends recently told me they had no clue who she was moments before they burst into flames upon seeing her impressive photo "resume".) Maybe hosting the season premiere of Saturday Night Live or potentially playing the role of Catwoman in the next Batman flick will help.

Podcast reminder: Tuesday, 7pm. We will answer your phone and email questions as well as break down the WR and TE rankings and sleepers, discuss the news of the day, including the latest Brandon Marshall mess, what to make of the Chiefs now that Matt Cassel is dinged and OC Chan Gailey is gone and which teams are playoff/Super Bowl bound

Mailbag Time

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:57:00 -0500

Living in the Washington, D.C. area, there is nothing funnier than being out for a drink with a group of serious people who are talking about the political news of the day, the economy, etc and then having them do a total 180 when they find out I write about fantasy football. Suddenly, they do not care so much about bailouts and oil prices but whether they should spend major auction dollars on Tom Brady (yes) or if Roy Williams will put up Terrell Owens-like numbers in Dallas (no).

As the song goes, it's 5:00 somewhere so let's keep Happy Hour going with the first mailbag of the season. If you want to join the fun, either on the blog or via our weekly podcast, email your questions to advice@fftoolbox.com...

Name: Adam B.
Location: Parkland, FL

12 team league
QB's getting 4 points per TD and WR, TE, and RB get 6. One keeper player per team not drafted in top 5 rounds from previous season.
Question: If picking 8th in round #1 and having Chris Johnson as your keeper would you still go RB in round #1 or would you look at guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andre Johnson?

Ben Standig: In non-PPR leagues, the only running backs I would definitively take over top receivers are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Johnson, and Steven Jackson with Steve Slaton and Frank Gore right in the mix as well. Now, considering you have Johnson in the fold already and I like the overall depth at running back better than receiver, I would tab Andre Johnson or one of the other big four receivers (Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson) at number eight...

Name: Jim
Location: Washington, DC
League Size: 12
League Details: 2RB, 2WR, TE

Question: The perception is that Eli Manning is a viable fantasy QB but his numbers last year were almost identical to Jason Campbell who is not perceived as a viable fantasy starter. Given the WR and TE corps of both teams – on draft day your next selection was to fill you QB slot and these 2 were the best available, who would you select?

BS: Considering Eli threw for 21 touchdowns compared to 13 for Campbell, it does seem hard to believe that they were respectively 13th and 14th in terms of total QB points last year, but the Redskins passer made up the difference with an additional 248 yards on the ground. The loss of Plaxico Burress will make it more challenging for Manning to reach the 20+ touchdown plateau for the 5th straight year, but his overall better supporting cast takes some pressure off him on the field even as the New York media applies a heaping does off it. If Hakeem Nicks or Domenik Hixon emerges as a consistent playmaker, Manning could sneak into QB1 territory, but consider him around the top tier of QB2 options and potential rotation play come draft day.

On the other hand, it is hard to consider Campbell as anything more than a pure backup, especially playing behind a solid but aging offensive line that is one injury away from imploding. He is also waiting for the Redskins young receivers to earn playing time (Malcolm Kelly is the best bet to contribute this year) and considering that management tried to bring in his replacement this off-season, Campbell could be in danger of losing his gig if the Redskins are struggling around the halfway point of the season. The former Auburn star could get the boost that comes from playing for a new contract, but too much has to go right for him to be fantasy viable...

Name: JD
Location Elmira N.Y.

League size 12
Total points and we play three IDP not teams. You have to draft you're starting 11 in the first segment ( 1 QB; 2 Rb; 3wr; 1te; 1kicker and 3idp). During the second section you can pick anybody.
Question: I have third pick in first round ( I intend to take best rb with the first pick). If both are available would you pick either Jones Drew or Forte?

BS: Like most I would put Adrian Peterson at the top of any standard scoring draft list, but MJD and Forte are my favorite players among that elite tier. The stats that the human bowling ball has put up – 38 touchdowns and an average of 1,300 yards from scrimmage over the past three seasons – while sharing the backfield with Fred Taylor are truly impressive and now he has vast majority of touches to himself. Forte also is the king of the Bears backfield castle and his rookie season was stellar, but there is potential for more emphasis on the passing game now that Jay Cutler is in town. I would give the slight nod to Jones-Drew and just hope the extra workload doesn't decrease his productivity in the latter stages of the season...

Name: Anil N.
Location: Alexandria, VA
Question: I'm in a 10 team league and have the 10th pick. The league heavily favors the passing game. The top 3 QB's went in the first round. I will be looking to pick up a QB in the 4th round at the earliest, but might wait. Who should I target there, guessing that my options will be between the following- McNabb, Cutler, Schaub, Palmer, Ryan?

BS: The good thing about the quarterback position is that there is no need to panic as there are plenty of options to ponder. However, in a league that gives added weight to the passing game and assuming Tony Romo, Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers are off the board, Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer offer the most upside of the players you mentioned.

The swap Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to Devin Hester and Earl Bennett knocks Cutler down the QB list for starters while Ryan still plays in a run-oriented attack. The Eagles offense could score a ton of points this year, but McNabb, who tossed 23 touchdown passes last year, has not thrown for 20+ plus scores in back-to-back years since the 2000-01 seasons.

On the other hand, Schaub is playing in potentially the breakout attack of the season and his per game average will likely be among the best in fantasy this year. The injury factor and lack of name recognition compared with the others mentioned is bumping his ADP down, but be sure to get a quality QB2 if you go with Schaub as your starter. Palmer's history shows that he can be a prolific fantasy QB option and despite a minor ankle tweak in camp, all signs point to another strong year for the Bengals passing game...

Name: Jed
Location: Springfield, MA

League Size: 14
League Details: PPR, 2 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D

Question: In a very deep league, what do you think about the idea of focusing on QB and D (where position scarcity is a big issue) and waiting on RB and WR? I think it'll work, but I'm nervous that I'll end up starting guys like Fargas and Camarillo.

BS: This is not a bad year to wait on running backs if needed because there is significant depth this campaign, largely due to all the RBBC situations. Starters like Cedric Benson and Willie Parker are falling just outside the top-30 running backs selected and significant backups like Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerious Norwood and Chester Taylor are even later. However, the receiver crop in my eyes takes a hit in value once you start getting into the WR3 category and after players like Derrick Mason and Torry Holt. I would not shy away from taking receivers, especially in leagues where you start three or more, in the early half of the draft.

As I mentioned earlier, there are 10-14 worthy QB1 options out there so you do need to grab one early on, though I do think the quality backups dry up quickly after players like David Garrard and Kyle Orton. The good thing is there are almost always starters available on the waiver wire most weeks so you can always get someone. The same holds true for defenses, which is why unless your league gives major bonus points for performance, there should be no significant focus on that position until the latter stages of a draft...

Name: Jason
Location: Kansas City, MO

League Size: 14
League Details: point per reception, 3 wr's, 2 RB's and a flex
Question: What is Peyton Hillis's fantasy value at starting FB with Buckhalter, Jordan, and Moreno in front of him?

BS: The reason I added this question, considering Hillis remains little more than an early season waiver wire candidate, is because it is crucial to ignore the perceived draft chart pecking order and actually look at what is happening on the ground, especially once the season has begun. In the case of Hillis, the Broncos are not likely going to use a traditional fullback, so he will need to fight for touches with all those mouths to feed, but he has built upon his strong 2008 performance with reportedly top notch training camp. Buckhalter remains the best handcuff option for Moreno owners, but keep track of how the Broncos divvy up their playing time early on. The same can be said for other crowded backfields, including the Patriots, Ravens, Seahawks and Bucs...

Running backs dominate round one in FanEx draft

Sat, 22 Aug 2009 13:43:00 -0500

This month I had the honor of representing FFToolbox in the long running FanEx Expert League. It took approximately two weeks to complete, but as far as I know, all made it through the trek with nary a scratch (though I felt like punching someone when LeSean McCoy was snatched one pick before I was set to bring him into the fold as Brian Westbrook's backup). The other sites participating included The Huddle, USA Today, Sports Grumblings, Fox Sports, Fanball, Fantasy Sharks, RotoExperts and Youth Fantasy Football.

For now I have the first five rounds laid out below, along with my entire roster, but you can click here to see the entire draft. The season will play out for those that want to follow along.

League: 12 teams, Points per Reception (PPR)
Rounds: 20
Lineup: QB – 1, RB -2, WR – 3, TE -1, K -1, Def – 1, Flex -1 (RB/WR/TE)

ROUND 1

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Matt Forte
4. Michael Turner
5. USA Today - Chris Johnson
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Steve Slaton - FFToolbox
8. LaDainian Tomlinson
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Steven Jackson
11. Randy Moss
12. Frank Gore

FFT: It was between Slaton and SJax and in the end I sided with the player in the much better offense. I have seen Slaton picked anywhere from top-5 to early second, but in a PPR format, I think he is worth the "risk" this early. Call me optimistic, but I think the Texans offense should be one of the best this year, meaning Slaton will have plenty of scoring opportunities.

Others: Many say do not take Adrian Peterson #1 in PPR leagues, but I think Turner at four is more of a reach in this format. I like Jackson better than Williams, but LT2 is gaining momentum as we get closer to opening day. Two receivers going in the first round is becoming the norm and possibly the low end of normal based on other drafts I've seen.

ROUND 2

1. (13) Andre Johnson
2. (14) Greg Jennings
3. (15) Clinton Portis
4. (16) Brandon Jacobs
5. (17) Calvin Johnson
6. (18) Brian Westbrook - FFToolbox
7. (19) Steve Smith
8. (20) Reggie Wayne
9. (21) Marion Barber
10. (22) Roddy White
11. (23) Anquan Boldin
12. (24) Dwayne Bowe

FFT: The initial plan was to take a receiver from the group of Jennings, Wayne and Smith, but I also did not think Westbrook would still be on the board. At the time of the pick, Westbrook had yet to return to practice so it was a risk, but now that he is back, this could be the pick that puts me over the top when it is all said and done. Now hoping one of the top-10 receivers is still available in the third.

Others: It pains me to say it as a Redskins fan, but there were other players available that I liked more than Portis, who is playing behind a beat up offensive line. In general, I like the order of the receivers, though despite love for Jennings this year, it would be hard to pass on Johnson. All of the pass catchers are looking like big time players this year.

[More]