Labour productivity at Canadian companies increases with age, but only until workers are in their late 40s, according to a new Statistics Canada report.

The rate of decline varies based on the profession, the agency said. For example, productivity peaks for employees in their late 40s in the finance and insurance sector and shows a modest decline thereafter. But productivity in the construction and manufacturing sectors peaks when employees are in their late 30s and declines more sharply after that.

Labour productivity, which is a measure of real gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked, has been sluggish in Canada in recent years and the workforce is quickly aging.

For example, the proportion of companies with an average worker age of more than 40 rose to 42.3 per cent in 2022 from 26.2 per cent in 2001, according to a Statistics Canada report in June. Similarly, the percentage of those companies where the workers’ average age was 55 and above increased to 18.8 per cent from 9.3 per cent in the same timeframe.

“Businesses need to understand the sector that they are in and figure out how they can get the best out of all their workers regardless of age,” said Anil Arora, a board member at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and former chief statistician of Canada.

“That may be taking advantage of the experience and wisdom of people above 50 and the energy, enthusiasm or tech savviness of those newly joining. We can’t afford to waste an ounce of talent or energy.”

But older workers don’t automatically equate to lower productivity, according to a report published by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 2020 and cited by Statistics Canada, which said an aging workforce can significantly boost GDP per capita with the right steps taken.

That requires emphasizing aspects such as lifelong learning, healthy working conditions and flexible arrangements to help older workers remain engaged.

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Arora said Statistics Canada’s report isn’t surprising since demographics is a predictable trend, but the aging population combined with the lack of sufficient investments and a cohesive strategy to boost labour productivity should act as a wakeup call for businesses.

“This isn’t a surprise, but it is happening now,” he said. “We have to tackle this on top of weak investment, slow technology diffusion, insufficient lifelong learning and insufficient investments. This is having a compounding effect.”

• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com

It wasn’t luck when Meta Platforms Inc. announced its $13-billion, one-gigawatt AI data centre in Sturgeon County, Alta., last week; it was the result of Alberta doing the hard policy work that New York and other jurisdictions have refused to do.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul has signed a one-year moratorium on new large data centres — the first statewide ban of its kind in the United States — while Alberta was closing one of the biggest private-sector technology investments in Canadian history. The contrast reveals who is actually winning the global race for data infrastructure.

Opposition to data centres is understandable when governments show up unprepared. Residents are right to protest if a jurisdiction lacks the natural advantages or has failed to do the upfront work to make projects viable electrically, economically and environmentally.

Arizona’s desert water shortages and power strains are real constraints. So are regions without ready industrial land, baseload power or cold-climate cooling efficiencies. Skepticism is rational when those gaps exist.

New York’s moratorium reflects exactly that kind of unreadiness: rising bills, grid pressure and water concerns that could have been managed with proper planning instead of a blanket pause. Alberta chose preparation over prohibition.

Three years ago, Invest Alberta began mapping what hyperscalers would need to scale AI compute. A continuous intelligence and policy operation — led by the agency, ministers, the premier’s office and staff — identified the precise requirements and then engineered a framework to meet them while protecting ratepayers and communities.

The same disciplined approach had already landed Dow Chemical Co.’s multibillion-dollar expansion in the industrial heartland. This is not reactive politics; it is deliberate strategy.

The framework rests on tangible policy development. Six years of tax reform lowered the corporate rate to eight per cent from 12 per cent, proving that lower rates can generate higher revenue while attracting capital.

A six-sector economic development strategy added technology and data infrastructure as enabling sectors that multiply opportunity across every other industry: energy optimization, advanced manufacturing, health research, university labs and entrepreneurship.

Most critically, the AI Data Centres Strategy delivered regulatory fast-tracks, a concierge service for complex projects and a bring-your-own-power model that lets developers fund new generation and grid upgrades rather than compete for existing supply.

Meta’s project shows the payoff of that preparation. The company is funding its generation and grid improvements that strengthen reliability for everyone else. It is using closed-loop liquid cooling with dry coolers that require no operational water for servers, only minimal domestic and safety uses. It is locating on pre-zoned industrial land instead of converting farmland.

These outcomes did not appear by accident. They required dozens of trips, site visits, policy drafts, late-night negotiations on power timelines, community benefit agreements and stakeholder structures. Dozens of people across Invest Alberta and politicians did the thankless, detailed work of aligning power generation, securing enforceable standards on noise and water, and balancing interests so the project could compete globally.

That is the difference between saying we want the future and creating the conditions for it to arrive on terms the public will accept. New York’s pause and similar hesitations elsewhere have already blocked or delayed more than US$60 billion in data centre investment across the U.S.

Capital and skilled trades do not wait for politicians to finish a year of review. Projects stalled in New York or Manitoba in 2026 will be operating in Alberta by 2029. The jurisdictions left behind will be told they were protected. In reality, they will have forfeited high-value construction and permanent operational jobs, stable tax revenue and the compute capacity that powers the next generation of universities, businesses and researchers.

Alberta’s approach treats data centres as foundational infrastructure, the digital equivalent of pipelines and power plants. They run 24/7 for decades, create permanent high-value roles in operations, tech support and the trades and generate predictable revenue.

More importantly, they enable every sector that depends on high-performance computing. More than 20 additional projects are already before municipal councils, with another 30 in active development. Several are under construction. You create the conditions for an entire ecosystem to flourish when you solve things for the largest and most sophisticated firms.

Alberta already leads the country on every major economic metric and has accounted for nearly 80 per cent of all net new jobs created in Canada over the past year. Investors are investing because Alberta has delivered the lowest taxes, clearest regulations and structural advantages in energy, land and climate that make long-term commitments attractive.

The same policy discipline that won the Meta deal will continue to win the next ones. Big deals like this do not happen because a jurisdiction gets lucky or simply says yes to everything. They happen because a province does the hard, detailed work of policy reform, global relationship building, cross-government teamwork and tailored execution, and then stays at it for years.

• Canadian oil is our best answer to global conflict
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While others pause or reject, Alberta is building the enduring digital backbone that will support scientific discovery, economic competitiveness and everyday life for generations. Capital, talent and opportunity go where they are welcome and stay where they are well-treated. Alberta is making sure it’s that place.

David Knight Legg is the founder and former chief executive of Invest Alberta Corp. He is a venture capital executive and policy expert in energy, technology and capital markets.

Canada’s retail sales rose for the fifth straight month in May as consumers showed resilience across the board despite rising energy prices .

Total retail sales increased by one per cent from April to $73.7 billion, data published by Statistics Canada Thursday showed. In volume terms, sales were up 0.3 per cent month over month.

Dollar sales at gas stations and fuel vendors saw the largest increase in May, up 3.1 per cent. In volume terms, however, sales at these vendors fell 2.7 per cent

Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and motor vehicle sales, rose by 0.9 per cent in May after a 0.7 per cent decline in April. General merchandise retailers led the increase, with sales up one per cent, the first increase in three months.

This was followed by sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book and miscellaneous retailers, which edged up by 1.8 per cent, the first gain in three months.

Sales at food and beverage retailers were also up 0.5 per cent in May due to higher sales at supermarkets and other grocery retailers.

Flash estimates for June suggest sales increased by 0.4 per cent, which would mark the sixth consecutive month of retail sale gains. However, Statistics Canada officials said that figure could be revised.

“ Consumer spending remained resilient in the face of the global oil price shock in May.… The advance was in line with StatCan’s flash estimate and our expectations, and supported by another large increase in pump prices,” said Michael Davenport, senior Canada economist at Oxford Economics, in a note on Thursday.

“(June’s estimate) likely reflects a bump in spending from the federal grocery and essentials benefit, which has long been factored into our forecast.”

Davenport added that the difference between total retail sales and volume sales (0.7 percentage points) can be attributed to inflation and higher prices. However, he noted that the gasoline and fuel subsector was the only one to post a decline in sales volumes.

“After a temporary boost from the federal grocery benefit in Q3, we expect consumer outlays will continue to grow albeit at a soft pace amid a weak labour market and shrinking population,” he said.

Andrew Grantham, executive director and senior economist for CIBC Capital Markets, said Canadian retail sales volumes appear to have held up “better than expected” in the second quarter of 2026 despite high gasoline prices and stagnant population growth.

The “modest rebound” in May, along with potential gains in June, should offset declines seen earlier in the year and means goods consumption is broadly flat compared with the first quarter of 2026, he said.

“Overall, retail sales appear to have ended the second quarter on a positive note, meaning that for Q2 as a whole, goods consumption is unlikely to be the drag on (gross domestic product) that it earlier appeared it would be,” Grantham wrote in a note on Thursday morning.

However, both Davenport and Grantham warned that a recent resurgence in oil prices, along with new U.S. tariffs, will add further downside risk to consumer spending in the near term.

Brent crude jumped to $100 per barrel on Thursday, a level that hasn’t been reached for nearly two months, after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea. According to data from CAA , average gas prices across Canada reached $1.77 per litre on Thursday, higher than a month ago when average gas prices were $160.5 per litre. The highest price in the past year was recorded on

May 6, when average gas prices reached $190.4 per litre.

“Looking ahead, enhanced household benefits were expected to support increased spending in the second half of the year, although the rebound seen recently in gasoline prices will at least partly offset that and start to restrict any pick up in discretionary spending,” Grantham wrote in a note on Thursday.

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• Why Trump’s new Canada tariffs are about autos, alcohol and cheese

• Email: ptran@postmedia.com

Just as Canadians and the economy were settling into something resembling a trade routine with the United States, President Donald Trump this week hit Canada with an unexpected new round of 50 per cent tariffs set to take effect Aug. 19. Here, the Financial Post explains what goods are being targeted, how Trump is justifying these levies and what Canada can do to respond.

What did Trump do?

On Monday, Trump signed three proclamations imposing new 50 per cent import duties on a broad swath of Canadian exports in response to what the White House alleged was “Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. commerce.”

The U.S. administration said the levies, which were set to take effect 30 days later on Aug. 19, are retaliating specifically against Canadian tariffs and quotas on American automobiles, alcohol and dairy.

The new tariffs apply to goods regardless of whether they are covered by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement ( CUSMA ), the White House said, and would apply on top of existing global tariffs of 10 per cent that are set to expire Friday and any new tariffs in response to earlier U.S. claims that Canada has lax forced-labour standards.

What goods are being hit?

The goods targeted cover a sweeping range of items, from Canadian wine and whisky to cement and hockey sticks.

Altogether, they amount to approximately $28 billion in trade or five per cent of Canada’s exports to the U.S. last year.

The White House said this latest round of tariffs will not apply to energy, potash or products already subject to tariffs under Section 232, and some other goods, such as fish and critical minerals.

“It’s a pretty strange list,” said Fen Osler Hampson, professor of international affairs at Carleton University. “It doesn’t hit any of what we would call the big value categories … but it’s not insignificant.”

Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note that chemicals, plastics, electronics and industrial equipment take the biggest hit proportionally, followed by consumer goods and forestry and wood products.

Other items include miscellaneous manufacturing, machinery and industrial equipment, and agriculture and food products.

How is Trump justifying the new 50% tariffs on Canada?

Trump is invoking a section of the Tariff Act of 1930 — also known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act — that gives presidents the power to impose duties based on a foreign country’s discrimination against U.S. commerce.

Section 338 of this act appears to provide the president with “unfettered power” to impose tariffs of up to 50 per cent for measures that are discriminatory or unreasonably burdensome, especially relative to other countries, said trade lawyer Mark Warner of Maaw Law.

Trump justified the tariffs by claiming Canada is discriminating against the U.S. economy in several ways. One is by banning the sale and distribution of U.S. alcohol while increasing imports from countries such as Chile, Japan, Argentina, Ireland, New Zealand and Australia. The proclamations say Canadian imports of U.S. alcohol decreased by 81 per cent from April 2025 to March 2026, or by about $582 million.

The Trump administration also claimed Canada’s tariffs on motor vehicles are more restrictive than regulations imposed on other countries. Officials claim Canadian imports of U.S. vehicles have decreased by 22 per cent from April 2025 to March 2026, or around US$5.6 billion.

Trump also called Canada’s tariff-rate quotas on U.S. dairy a trade irritant, claiming they are more restrictive than those imposed on other countries.

What’s the reality on autos?

Trump’s justification for the new tariffs included that Canada imposed a tariff system on U.S. motor vehicles and treats other countries more favourably. However, the proclamations neglect to mention that Canada’s auto tariffs were put in place in April 2025 in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian autos, steel and aluminum, which violated CUSMA rules that say no party can increase any existing duties or adopt new duties on goods originating from North America unless specifically authorized.

Canada’s countermeasures, which the government’s website says “will remain in place until the U.S. eliminates its tariffs against the Canadian auto sector,” impose a 25 per cent tariff on U.S. motor vehicles that don’t comply with CUSMA rules and on the non-Canadian and non-Mexican content of CUSMA-compliant U.S.-made vehicles.

These are higher than tariffs on motor vehicles from some other countries. For example, Mexican vehicles that are CUSMA compliant are duty free (as generally were American-made vehicles, prior to the U.S.-launched trade war). Chinese electric vehicles, meanwhile, are currently subject to 6.1 per cent tariffs on a quota of 49,000 vehicles while imports exceeding this quota are subject to a 100 per cent tariff. Direct-import Japanese vehicles are subject to standard baseline tariffs of 6.1 per cent unless the vehicles are compliant with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Canada’s auto industry was severely impacted by the U.S. tariffs. According to the Office of the Chief Economist, motor vehicles and parts manufacturing sectoral gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.4 per cent in 2025. Exports of Canadian motor vehicle and parts also struggled throughout 2025 in the face of U.S. tariffs, falling by three per cent.

Imports of North American vehicles also hit a record low while imports from overseas increased. According to data from the 2026 Canada Automotive Outlook report from TD Economics the share of Canadian motor vehicles sourced from within the CUSMA region was at a record low of 65 per cent. Mexico saw “a modest increase in its share of Canadian imports, nearly equal in magnitude to the decrease in the share accounted for by the U.S.,” wrote TD Economics economist Andrew Foran.

“To a lesser extent, we have also seen higher imports from outside of the North American region, including Japan, South Korea and Germany,” he added.

What about alcohol and dairy?

While Trump complained about Canadian discrimination on alcohol, the decision by Canadian provinces and territories (except for Alberta and Saskatchewan) to pull U.S. booze off their shelves in February and March last year also came in response to U.S. tariffs affecting key sectors such as auto, aluminum, lumber and steel, alongside threats to annex Canada.

The provincial moves resulted in a US$360 million drop in U.S. wine exports and a US$150 million drop in U.S. spirits exports to Canada over the past year, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

At the same time, Canadian alcohol sales edged up. Domestic alcohol products represented about 60.6 per cent of sales in Canada in 2024/2025, up from 59 per cent the previous fiscal year, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada.

Additionally, Canada significantly increased monthly imports from France, which increased by $13.9 million, and Italy, which increased by $8 million, between March and August 2025, according to University of British Columbia Sauder School of Business trade economist Werner Antweiler. Imports from Spain, New Zealand, Chile, and Ireland all increased by around $3 million monthly during the same time period.

Canada’s supply management system has long been an irritant to the United States. Trump has previously claimed that Canada imposes 250 to 300 per cent tariffs on U.S. dairy products. However, Canada has a quota that allows a certain amount of U.S. dairy products to enter tariff-free under CUSMA, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Tariffs ranging from 200 to 300 per cent only apply if these quotas are exceeded.

If the U.S. tariffs come into effect, how damaging could they be to the economy?

National Bank of Canada economists predicted Canada’s overall tariff rate would rise modestly, from about five per cent to just over 7.7 per cent, in a note. This tariff rate refers to the average amount U.S. businesses would need to pay to import Canadian goods overall.

However, raising tariffs could discourage U.S. businesses from importing some products altogether. “Needless to say, the proposed 50 per cent tariffs would make select imports uneconomical, limiting the increase in the effective rate,” National Bank said. This means that though the overall tariff increase would be modest, it could be prohibitive in certain sectors.

Andreas Schotter, a professor of international business at Western University’s Ivey Business School, said the most critical impact will be felt at the company level, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses, as opposed to the macroeconomic level. He said there could be some job losses and reduced investment as well.

Andrew Hencic, director and senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, also flagged the impact on business confidence.

“Businesses have been operating under a cloud of uncertainty for over a year, and although the new announcements are likely to dent confidence further, a repeat of the scale of the confidence shock from 2025 remains a tail risk,” he wrote in a note.

Should the tariffs be maintained, Hencic said they would likely shave between 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points off GDP growth over the next year, assuming no major changes in business behaviour or government response.

“While we don’t expect the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates, we see bond yields, stock prices and the Canadian dollar all falling further in the near term on elevated trade tensions over the next few months,” said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, in a note.

What are Canada’s options in response?

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has said Canada “can’t keep rolling over for President Trump,” and suggested that Canada should retaliate against the new tariffs if talks fail.

Schotter said he expects to see bilateral tariffs, with Canada retaliating with levies on some U.S. goods. But given Canada’s reliance on U.S. markets for its exports, he also recommended Canada offer some concessions through either its U.S. dairy allocations or on energy.

Warner said an “obvious” solution would be for Canada to resolve the provincial alcohol bans, echoing suggestions made by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, but Carney has said he would leave this decision with the premiers. Both B.C. Premier David Eby and Ford said their provinces would not lift the bans.

David-Alexandre Brassard, chief economist at the Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada, recommended Canada focus on dealing with the vehicle dispute, as he said in a note it accounts for about 95 per cent of the tariff burden.

“It may be tempting to respond with dollar-for-dollar retaliation, but that approach produced little progress earlier this year,” Brassard said.

Carleton’s Hampson said Carney’s strategy should focus on a serious resolution to the CUSMA trade dispute. Many of Trump’s issues with Canada’s trade policy are potentially resolvable, but the question of what Canada receives in return remains.

“This is why we’re stuck at the negotiating table,” he said. “There’s certainly a basis for a deal, but they’re going to have to make some concessions, and it can’t just be one-way.”

Carney himself pointed to a hastening of talks, saying he and Trump agreed in a call to “intensify negotiations” in the coming weeks.

What is Trump trying to achieve?

Trump may be turning to the new tariffs after earlier measures under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act were struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year, Warner said.

“He has to put an architecture in place, or he has to abandon the tariff policy,” Warner said. “He’s not going to abandon the tariff policy.”

While Warner said Trump is likely also using these tariffs to push Canada to the table on broader CUSMA negotiations, Schotter said the president may hope the announcement serves as a distraction from the war in Iran, which has raised oil prices for Americans.

Desjardins’ Mendes wrote that he expects the U.S. administration will want to announce some wins, including at least a partial resolution to North American trade disputes before the midterm elections.

“That leaves us still optimistic about the prospects for the economy and financial markets in 2027,” he said.

• Email: slouis@postmedia.com

• Email: ptran@postmedia.com

• 'No surprise' Trump slapped Canada with new tariffs
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There’s a new threat on the horizon that could soon sweep the world, raising food and energy prices and disrupting supply chains at a time when the world is least able to cope.

It’s called El Niño and forecasts are calling for one of the strongest on record in the fourth quarter of this year — in other words a “super El Niño.”

“That matters because El Niño events can act as a multi-dimensional supply shock, with a causal link to higher food and energy prices, alongside broader supply-chain disruption,” said Henry Allen, macro strategist with Deutsche Bank Research Institute in a report out this week.

That’s a problem at any time, but it is especially problematic now because the Iran war has already disrupted supply chains and pushed up inflation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

“A very strong El Niño event would be another negative supply shock, at a point when the global economy has limited room to absorb one,” he said.

El Niños happen when unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean change the course of jet streams and weather patterns.

They are characterized by higher global temperatures and a higher frequency of natural disasters ranging from flooding in North America to drought in Australia and Asia.

“For markets, an El Nino is capable of hitting agricultural production, hydropower, shipping, and even has effects on public health and political stability. In other words, it operates as a multi-channel supply shock,” said Allen.

Though El Niño cycles repeat every few years, forecasts are predicting that this one will rank among the most serious in recent history. The U.S. Climate Prediction Centre warned this event could one of the strongest in 75 years with a high chance it reaches “strong” thresholds in July to September and “very strong” in October to December.

A “very strong” El Niño is capable of shifting rainfall and temperature patterns over multiple regions at the same time.

This drives up food prices by damaging crops, killing livestock and disrupting shipping. Lower rainfall in some regions can impede the electricity generation of hydro electric dams as higher temperatures raise the demand for power.

El Niños also disrupt supply chains. In the last event in 2023-24, a 30 per cent drop in rainfall forced the restriction of ships passing through the Panama Canal.

The combination of higher food and energy prices threatens to ramp up inflation already under pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the ongoing Iran conflict, said Allen.

Conditions today are reminiscent of the 1970s, when a series of unrelated supply shocks, including an El Niño, kept inflation high, he said. Even though the shocks themselves were temporary, their frequency caused inflation expectations to become entrenched and policy makers were forced to react.

“Given the forecasts for the strength of this El Nino, this will be an important event to look out for over the months ahead,” he said.

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Bank of Canada rate hikes looked even further away Monday after the country’s inflation rate slowed more than expected.

The consumer price index rose by 2.8 per cent in June , down from the 3.2 per cent pace the month before and lower than the 2.9 per cent expected by economists.

The average of the median and trim measures of core inflation that the central bank favours came in at 1.85 per cent, the lowest since September 2020 and the first time the metric has fallen below 2 per cent in nearly six years.

“June’s inflation report reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada can remain on the sidelines for quite some time,” said Leslie Preston, senior economist at TD Economics.

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Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s initial public offering last month created 4,400 instant millionaires; it was the bet of a lifetime for some employees of the American spaceflight, telecommunications and artificial intelligence company, which soared to a US$2.64-trillion market cap.

Stock compensation in the workforce is on the rise, but Financial Post columnist Garry Marr reminds us that it doesn’t always pay out. Read on

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

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Canadian homebuyers should be winners because of declining home prices , but rising mortgage rates are robbing them of that win, says a new Rates.ca report.

Buyers in June needed more income to qualify for bigger mortgages, even in cities where prices fell, as affordability worsened in 11 of 13 of Canada’s largest housing markets .

“Normally, lower home prices help improve affordability by reducing the size of the mortgage buyers need to qualify for,” the report said. “However, in June, the increase in borrowing costs had a greater impact than falling home prices in most markets.”

Average five-year fixed-mortgage rates rose in June to 4.57 per cent from 4.49 per cent among the big banks, pushed up by higher Government of Canada bond yields. The increase also pushed up the mortgage stress test qualifying rate.

Prices fell in Vancouver, Victoria, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Fredericton, but rising mortgage rates still increased the amount of income needed to qualify.

For example, in Vancouver, the average home price dropped $1,600 in June from May, but monthly mortgage payments rose $37, while the annual income required to qualify rose $1,200 to $226,400.

Affordability took a double whammy in Calgary, where home prices rose by $4,000, helping to push both a monthly increase of $44 in mortgage payments and the amount of annual income needed to qualify for a mortgage up $4,670 to $125,770.

Prices, mortgage payments and income requirements also rose in St. John’s, NL, Regina, Montreal and Winnipeg.

Rates.ca arrived at its calculations using the Canadian Real Estate Association ‘s average home price, a 10 per cent down payment, a mortgage with a 25-year amortization period, property taxes of $4,000 a year and monthly heating costs of $150.

“Halifax was one of only two cities where affordability improved in June, and by the widest margin, driven by a substantial $11,400 decline in the average home price,” the report said.

Monthly mortgage payments in Halifax’s capital fell by $35 and income requirements dropped by $1,400 a month.

Hamilton was the only other city where affordability improved, though by a much narrower margin. Mortgage payments dropped just $3 a month.

“With housing prices stabilizing and fixed borrowing costs facing upward pressure from continuing geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics with the U.S., housing affordability is unlikely to improve significantly for the remainder of the year,” the report said.

Rates.ca isn’t the only one warning about housing affordability.

Royal Bank of Canada Economics on June 26 that housing prices have likely bottomed and income growth will have to do “a lot of the heavy lifting” if affordability is going to continue to improve.

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U.S. refiners are ramping up diesel production to near-record levels, bucking seasonal trends as the Russia and Iran wars trigger a global supply crunch.

Refiners have produced an average of 5.3 million barrels of distillate fuel oil — which is predominantly diesel — every day this month, according to data from the United States Department of Energy. If that pace continues, it will be the most diesel the U.S. has ever made in the month of July, and one of the highest months on record outside of winter heating season.

Profit margins for making diesel from crude oil in the US and Northwest Europe have already surged to all-time highs.

Read the full story here .

• Today’s Data: CFIB Business Barometer, Canadian retail sales for May, Bloomberg July United States economic survey, initial and continuing jobless claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
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Kevin’s plans for his life were upended when his wife died last year. Now he has re-evaluated his priorities and wonders if he can retire in a year when he turns 54 to spend more time with his children, both of whom are in university. With an investment portfolio worth $900,000, will his savings last his lifetime? Read FP Answers here to find out if his plan will work.

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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Mark Warner, principal at MAAW Law, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how it’s ‘no surprise’ that Donald Trump slapped Canada with new tariffs . “I see this primarily as not somebody taking a hit on Canada. I see Donald Trump as a man who lost in the Supreme Court who’s trying to put back his architecture around trade agreements,” he said.

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• Email: lharapyn@postmedia.com

Donald Trump’s latest tariff move reaches far beyond cars, alcohol and cheese. But those three trade fights are why the White House says it is imposing an additional 50 per cent duty on hundreds of Canadian products.

Tariffs are scheduled for Aug. 19 and cover nearly US$20 billion in imports. The lists include wine, hockey sticks, cement, plywood, honey, toys and paper products. Listed goods face the new levy even when they qualify under the Canada-United-States-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA). Energy, potash, fish and certain critical minerals are exempt, as are products already covered by separate U.S. tariffs, including vehicles, steel and aluminum.

Auto disputes are rooted in measures Canada introduced after President Trump imposed U.S. vehicle tariffs in 2025. Washington objects to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs and import quotas, including reductions aimed at automakers that shifted production out of Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada’s response matched the American action, which Ottawa considers a violation of CUSMA.

The alcohol fight largely plays out through provincial liquor systems. Most provinces and territories pulled American products after the earlier U.S. tariffs. Alberta and Saskatchewan reversed course in June 2025, but Ontario and many others kept their restrictions. The White House says Canadian imports of U.S. alcohol fell about 81 per cent, or US$582 million, over the following year.

The dairy complaint is more technical. Canada uses quotas that allow set amounts of cheese to enter at reduced duties. Washington argues that retailers can access Canada’s quota for European cheese but not the corresponding CUSMA quota for American cheese, leaving U.S. exporters at a disadvantage. The dispute cuts directly into Canada’s supply management system, a recurring source of friction with Washington.

• U.S. says it will hit Canada with new 50% tariffs over autos, alcohol and dairy disputes
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Carney called the announcement another unilateral U.S. trade action. He says Canada has submitted detailed proposals, is ready to intensify negotiations and will support affected workers and businesses.

CUSMA has not expired, even though the U.S. declined to extend it during this month’s review. The agreement remains in force while annual reviews continue.

Announcements can still be amended or suspended before Aug. 19, leaving both governments a month to decide whether this becomes another negotiating threat or a much broader barrier for Canadian exporters.

• Email: dtrainer@postmedia.com

A majority of Canadians are onside with the recently unveiled Alberta-to-British-Columbia pipeline proposal , though some of that support rests on “shifting ground,” says a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute.

Its poll of about 2,600 adults conducted online July 10-14 said 63 per cent support the proposal made by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and announced with Prime Minister Mark Carney, for a pipeline that would transport one million barrels of crude oil per day from Bruderheim just north of Edmonton to B.C.’s southern coast and cost an estimated $35 billion to $44 billion to build.

“I would say it indicates a strong level of support, given how fraught the debate has been about pipelines over the last decade and a half and the fact that there have been points where pipelines, depending on the route, were absolute non-starters in the eyes of majorities of Canadians,” Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said.

Public support for various pipeline proposals has varied over the years, from a low of 39 per cent for the rejected Northern Gateway project, which would have ended on B.C.’s northern coast, to a high of 65 per cent for the Energy East pipeline from Alberta to New Brunswick, which was initially proposed in 2016, but cancelled by proponent TC Energy Corp.

Support for the B.C. pipeline is strongest in Alberta at 78 per cent and 63 per cent in B.C., where resistance to pipelines has been acute in the past,

Ottawa cleared a “mental hurdle” for British Columbians to support this pipeline, which runs along the T rans Mountain expansion corridor, by reconfirming a federal tanker ban on the province’s northern coast, Kurl said.

Nearly nine in 10 people are aware of the B.C. proposal and Ottawa’s Major Projects Office is now assessing the plan to see if it qualifies as a project of national interest.

Overall, 55 per cent of Canadians also support the construction of a second pipeline going east from Hardisty in southern Alberta to Sarnia, Ont., that was proposed by Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford , though awareness of that project was much lower, with four in 10 people saying they had never heard of it.

However, people’s support is not written in stone.

Only a quarter were steadfast in their support for the B.C. pipeline, while a bit more than one third of those who backed the pipeline said they could be convinced otherwise.

“In both cases, only about half of Canadians say they have truly made up their minds about the projects, suggesting both proposed pipelines sit on shifting ground,” Angus Reid said in a report on the poll.

But Kurl said she doesn’t think people who are equivocating about their support would end up taking to the streets to fight a pipeline.

“But public moods can shift if we all of a sudden see a significant drop in oil prices, if we see massive cost overruns around the actual building of the thing, if along the way Canadians start to hear from First Nations,” she said. “Those are the things that can absolutely shift public opinion on the pipeline project.”

The prospect of selling more oil to markets other than the United States was cited by 55 per cent as the most compelling reason to support the Alberta to B.C. pipeline, while 51 per cent agreed that oil is a key source of income for the Canadian economy . Less than half cited the job and economic growth opportunities.

Top arguments against the B.C. pipeline included that Canada should be investing in renewable energy and that the cost will outweigh the economic benefits.

Only 13 per cent said they thought agreeing to build the pipeline would boost national unity, especially in Alberta.

In the case of the Alberta-to-Ontario pipeline, people cited jobs as the top reason to back the project and the potential economic benefits came in second.

“The majority of Canadians are looking at a lot of these issues through the lens of energy sovereignty and carbon diversification because of everything that’s happened with the U.S.,” Kurl said.

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This 62-year-old, divorced human resource manager has been living off a small inheritance of $85,000 after retiring last year from her job, where she earned $120,000. She’s a bit worried about how she will fund her retirement, because she doesn’t have a company pension plan. However, she’s not totally without resources. Right now, her investments total $531,400 from various sources, plus a fully paid condo worth $460,000. Her annual income needs are a modest $45,000 to cover expenses. She says she could go back to work part-time to cover a shortfall but doesn’t want to. Her question to our financial experts is: would buying an annuity put her at ease? Keep reading FP Answers here to find out more.

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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Canadians intend on spending 18 hours behind the wheel on road trips this summer despite volatile gas prices.

That’s about the time it would take to drive from Vancouver to Regina or Toronto to Halifax.

Road trips are expected to account for about 55 per cent of summer travel this year, with 70 per cent of road trippers intending to go on multiple journeys, according to a survey by rental car platform Turo Inc.

The report said 66 per cent of road trippers intend to stay within Canada, with the most popular destinations being Banff, Alta., Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Prince Edward Island and Jasper, Alta.

“We expected road trips to play a big role in Canadians’ summer travel plans this year, but what surprised us was the sheer scale,” Bassem El-Rahimy, vice-president of Turo Canada, said in a news release.

“Canadians aren’t just taking one road trip. They’re planning multiple getaways, spending hours behind the wheel and, in many cases, budgeting thousands to do it. That tells us this isn’t necessarily about finding a cheaper way to travel. It’s about choosing a better one.”

Gas prices remain elevated as the war in Iran escalates, reaching a national average of $1.73 per litre on Tuesday, up from last week’s average of $1.64, according to the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA) .

But hitting the open road is still the most cost-effective way to travel. Nearly half of Canadians said they are choosing to drive over flying due to the costs, while 70 per cent have at least two road trips planned this summer.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that driving is cheap. For example, about a quarter of Albertans expect to spend more than $5,000 on their summer road trips, compared to one in six Ontarians.

Younger Canadians are also intending to spend big money on road trips this year, with 18 per cent of gen-Zers planning to take four or more road trips this year, while 28 per cent intend to spend more than $5,000 on summer travel.

Gen-Zers are also most likely to travel internationally this summer, suggesting a giant summer away from home for the younger generation.

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A U.S. judge has hit pause on the proposed merger between Paramount Skydance Corp. and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., potentially costing the companies billions of dollars.

On Monday, the federal judge halted the deal on a request from California and 11 other U.S. states, arguing the merger “likely” violates antitrust regulations. Meanwhile, in August another judge could extend the hold while they decide if a full trial is needed.

The 12 states want a trial in April 2027, though the companies had hoped to close the deal on Wednesday.

If the deal is not completed by September, Paramount owes Warner Bros. shareholders US$7 million in late fees per day, meaning that an April trial could add up to well over US$1 billion in extra costs.

Read more here.

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Canada’s tax system is a fiscal illusion, writes Financial Post columnist Kim Moody, which occurs when government taxation is structured so that taxpayers don’t fully experience the cost. He explains why you should take notice of how much the government is withholding from your paycheques. Find out more

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors. Sign up here.

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

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