Financial Post - Top Stories

Summer job listings stabilizing after three-year decline, but market still 'soft'

Jane Switzer — Wed, 20 May 2026 18:51:14 +0000

Summer job postings are stabilizing after a three-year decline, says a new report from Indeed Hiring Lab, but young Canadians are once again being sprung from school into another “soft” labour market.

National summer job postings were up four per cent in early May compared to a year ago, according to data from Indeed. Its report tracked Canadian postings on Indeed.com that included the term “summer” (or été) in the job title. It noted that the annual hiring cycle usually ramps up in January and cools off mid-May.

Indeed Hiring Lab found that summer camp jobs were the most common category and made up 13 per cent of summer job postings as of early May, down from 15 per cent from the same time last year. There was also higher seasonal demand for a range of jobs, including painters, warehouse workers, administrative assistants and youth and community care workers.

While this year’s numbers reflect a “relatively stable summer hiring appetite compared to 2025,” the report noted that summer job postings are still down 37 per cent from their 2022 peak, with three consecutive years of declines between 2023-25.

One factor that influences the summer job market is the strength of the broader labour market and who is available to work, said Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

Bernard said workers in a strong economy tend to change jobs more often and move up the career ladder into higher paying positions but stay in their current roles or take on lower-level jobs in a weaker market when opportunities are scarce.

“If they’re not moving on, then the employers don’t need to backfill those roles, and new entrants to the labour market need to find something else to do,” he said. “And if the job market is weak, there might not be that many options.”

Bernard said summer job postings also evolve in line with broader economic trends.

“We’ve been in a time of subdued economic growth, so employers aren’t clamouring for workers,” he said. “The unemployment rate is in the range of seven per cent, which isn’t too high, but it’s definitely up substantially from where it was during the really hot post-pandemic labour market.”

Canada’s youth job market has been in “distress” since 2023, the report said, particularly among teens ages 15–19. While youth employment usually jumps when the school year ends, that trend has recently been more “muted.”

During years with stronger labour markets (such as 2018, 2019 and 2022), Bernard’s analysis found that youth employment rates rose by an average of 11 percentage points on a non-seasonally adjusted basis between March and the peak in July.

“Since 2023, the jumps have been in the range of 9.1 to 9.4 percentage points, on average, a net 16 per cent drop in the rate of youth entering summer employment,” the report said.

Bernard said posting trends on Indeed suggest this summer will be similar. While employers’ hiring appetites haven’t rebounded, Bernard said they haven’t deteriorated either.

“It does suggest that there’s going to be people who are working in jobs that they might not have if the market was stronger,” he said. “And there is going to be some people who just aren’t able to break into the summer job market at all.”

This summer’s hiring season isn’t entirely done, though Bernard noted it’s likely many jobs have already been filled. He said that employers start posting seasonal jobs in February, and job seekers can start their search by researching what opportunities are out there, deciding what they’re good at, what they like to do and what skills are in demand, as well as trying to network and pick up new skills.

“Even in a tough job market, it’s important to find some productive uses of your time, even though it understandably can be discouraging,” he said.

• Email: jswitzer@postmedia.com

Canada 'world's most attractive market for infrastructure investment', poll says

Denise Paglinawan — Wed, 20 May 2026 18:42:51 +0000

Canada has surpassed the United States, emerging as the “most attractive market for infrastructure investment,” according to a survey of leading investors in the sector.

Global Infrastructure Investor Association’s recent poll places Canada at the top of its rankings, thanks to a series of recent announcements by the Canadian government.

This comes after Prime Minister Mark Carney ’s government made clear commitments to strengthening and expanding Canada’s core infrastructure, it said in a press release.

“Canada is making all the right noises when it comes to its intentions to attract private capital into building, maintaining, and improving the nation’s infrastructure — with ambitious goals for how and where it will raise this capital,” said Jon Phillips, the association’s chief executive.

Canada surpassed European economic powerhouse Germany, which now sits in second place in the rankings, as well as the U.S. for the first time.

Phillips said his group works with Canadian infrastructure investors all over the world, who have been some of the most active in the sector for decades. Just two years ago, Canada made up only three per cent of capital deployed by its members, but “it appears that is certainly about to change,” he added.

The group said its members, who manage nearly $3 trillion in infrastructure assets combined, are surveyed on a bi-annual basis to gauge sector attractiveness, challenges and deal flow across the world’s biggest infrastructure markets.

One of the association’s large-scale investor members noted Canada currently appears to be “having a moment” within the world of infrastructure and major national projects, it said.

The report highlighted Carney’s ‘Nation Building’ program and his government’s announcement of a new sovereign wealth fund, which will partly be used to co-fund infrastructure projects alongside private-sector partners. The government initially committed $25 billion over three years for the fund.

“Our latest survey of members has clearly shown that recent announcements are creating global interest,” said Phillips. “If the government can continue to send clear policy signals like reforming airport governance and nuclear innovation, they can convert this investor interest into real deals and capital flow.”

Canada is also looking to attract foreign investors, with a stated aim of raising $1 trillion in new capital from external sources, and the first-ever Canada Investment Summit kicking off later this fall, the report said.

Much of the capital would be generated in the prospect that Canada will privatize some of its major airports, it said.

It added that the country’s intention to become a nuclear-led energy superpower is also an attractive notion, and by working with experienced infrastructure investors, Canada can manage costs, speed up deployment and reinforce its global leadership in clean energy.

Inflation rose to 2.8% in April as oil price shock continues to drive up fuel prices

Paula Tran — Tue, 19 May 2026 13:06:08 +0000

Canada’s inflation rate rose to 2.8 per cent in April as higher energy prices caused by the war in Iran continued to drive up fuel prices , Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

Inflation accelerated from the 2.4 per cent reported in March and marked the highest rate since May 2024, when headline inflation was 2.9 per cent.

However, April’s inflation rate was slightly lower than the Bank of Canada’s expectations . The central bank projected inflation to peak at three per cent in April before gradually returning to the two per cent target in early 2027 in its most recent Monetary Policy Report.

“That’s good news, to a certain degree. It could have been worse — market expectations were around 3.1 per cent,” said TD senior economist Andrew Hencic.

“But it has raised some questions. With the energy shock so large, what else is going on that’s offsetting that to some degree?”

Tuesday’s report comes as consumers are already feeling squeezed.

Rent prices increased by 3.6 per cent year-over-year in April, down from 4.2 per cent in March. However, rents have increased by 30.8 per cent since April 2021.

Clothing and footwear prices rose by two per cent on an annual basis in April — led by higher prices in women’s clothing.

The price of food purchased from stores also rose by 3.8 per cent on a yearly basis in April, down from 4.4 per cent in March. Statistics Canada said prices for meat and fresh vegetables decelerated slightly, while prices for coffee and confectioneries rose at a slower pace.

Hencic said supply factors play a big role in rising food prices. Beef prices have soared in the past few years, for example, and the trends show no signs of easing. Coffee prices have also risen — Statistics Canada data suggest Canadians paid 27.9 per cent more for coffee at the grocery store in August 2025 than a year earlier.

“There’s a whole host of stuff going on in food that you know makes the cost-of-living challenges a little bit tougher. A 3.8 per cent year-over-year increase is still a healthy increase that folks are having to deal with,” he said.

Higher fuel costs also affected the cost of transportation — up 7.6 per cent year over year in April — and helped drive overall inflation higher.

However, BMO Financial Group chief economist Douglas Porter said higher transportation and fuel costs have yet to bleed through to other goods and services. He pointed to decelerating food prices, which rely a lot on transportation, and declining air fares as examples.

“I do find that surprising,” Porter noted. “That said, I don’t think we can let our guard down. The Bank of Canada certainly isn’t going to let its guard down, not with energy prices still rising, so I don’t think anybody’s really relaxing on this result, but we’ll take a small bit of good news as it arrives here.”

Both economists also observed that median core inflation has been declining steadily from 2.8 per cent in November 2025 to 2.1 per cent in April 2026. They interpreted that as a sign that the economy remains relatively soft and businesses are having a hard time passing along increased costs to consumers.

“Now, the longer they stay high, the more pressure companies are likely going to face,” Hencic added. “Thus far, the pass throughs, to the extent that they exist, have likely been small, just based on what we’re seeing in the data.”

Porter said he wouldn’t be surprised if gasoline prices further drove inflation to three per cent or higher in May and June.

The uncertainty around the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement negotiations will further dampen economic growth, he added.

“I think the economy will struggle to grow this year. I think that’s the cold hard reality,” he said.

“Everyone hates inflation. It hurts consumer confidence in general. People have to channel more spending in the necessities, which leaves them with less income to spend on other discretionary goods, like travel and entertainment. That could have a real impact on the economy.

“Having said that, I’ve been impressed at how well activity has held up so far.… The economy seems to be hanging in there, even in the face of this energy shock, but it’s hard to be really upbeat on the growth outlook when you’re dealing with both an energy shock and the deep trade uncertainty,” Porter said.

• Email: ptran@postmedia.com

Posthaste: The surprising pockets where homebuyers now have the advantage

Ben Cousins — Wed, 20 May 2026 12:00:41 +0000

A few surprising pockets have emerged around the country where those looking for their new dream home have a real chance to strike a deal.

Seven of the 23 biggest Canadian cities and regions emerged with the perfect mix of falling prices and sales, meaning there is plenty of cheaper supply at the moment, according to a report by real estate platform Zoocasa Inc.

Most notably, home prices have fallen 8.1 per cent in the Niagara Region in Ontario, while sales have fallen 6.4 per cent, marking it the country’s most advantageous market for buyers.

Other opportunity spots include Greater Vancouver, where prices have fallen three per cent and sales are down 2.9 per cent, and Hamilton-Burlington, where prices and sales have dropped 6.2 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively.

Other buyer-market regions include Sudbury, Ont., Gatineau, Que., Regina and the Fraser Valley of British Columbia.

“For buyers who’ve been waiting for more selection and more negotiating power, these markets are worth watching closely,” Zoocasa said in the report.

As a whole, Canadian home prices were up 2.2 per cent year over year in April to an average of $695,412, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) .

Home sales were up 0.7 per cent month over month in April, with activity expected to be even stronger in May.

“Notwithstanding April’s bounce-back, the housing market continues to face several headwinds, like weak population growth, elevated supply in key regions and shaky job markets,” Rishi Sondhi, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a note last week . “These factors suggest 2026 could be another subdued year for Canadian housing.”

There are, however, areas that are particularly hot right now, mostly in Quebec.

Saguenay, Quebec City, Sherbrooke and Montreal are among the regions where both housing prices and sales are on the upswing, along with Thunder Bay, Ont., and Newfoundland and Labrador.

“Mid-priced cities are posting double-digit price gains, several higher-priced regions are seeing meaningful corrections and a handful of markets are quietly heating up across both prices and sales,” the Zoocasa report said.

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Canada’s inflation rate ticked higher to 2.8 per cent in April, largely on the back of high energy prices related to the war in Iran.

The Consumer Price Index for the month represents the highest rate since May 2024, though it still came in lower than Bank of Canada expectations.

The price of food climbed 3.8 per cent in the month, while fuel costs from transportation were up 7.6 per cent.

The central bank predicts inflation will return to its target of two per cent by early 2027.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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Some Queen's University retirees say new UPP plan is leaving them shortchanged on inflation

Barbara Shecter — Mon, 18 May 2026 10:00:37 +0000

A group of retired employees of Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., say the transition of their pension to the new University Pension Plan mega fund has left them feeling shortchanged in the face of rising inflation .

Queen’s was one of three universities to fold their retirement funds into the newly created and professionally managed multi-employer fund that was launched in 2021 amid concern over the sustainability of university pensions in Ontario.

The intent of joining the UPP was to address funding shortfalls, maintain defined benefit pension plans that guaranteed payouts for retirees, and tap into the benefits of investing at scale .

But the retirees say the Queen’s pension’s indexation formula — which was tied to performance and maintained after the merger — did not mesh with UPP’s investment style, leading to stagnating payouts in recent years.

“Significant concerns have been expressed by RAQ (Retirees Association of Queen’s) members following receipt of the 2025 pension adjustment letters that showed that UPP investments delivered a very disappointing three per cent net fund return for 2024/25,” the co-chairs of the association’s pension and benefits committee wrote in a spring 2026 newsletter viewed by the Financial Post.

“Since 2021, when management of our pensions was assumed by the University Pension Plan (UPP), little or no increase in pensions has been seen.”

Not all pension payouts are indexed to help keep up with inflation, but Queen’s had a formula for conditional indexation that was brought over to UPP for those employees and retirees. The formula is based on investment performance and provides for an increase to a retiree’s base pension if an average return target is met over a rolling four or six year period, depending on when the individual retired.

A strategy of investing heavily in public equities meant the target was met much of the time as stock markets roared ahead for much of the past quarter century — with the exception of 2008 financial crisis. As a result, Queen’s retirees received additional payouts for many years with their standalone pension.

However, under UPP, the fund’s investments shifted to include private assets such as infrastructure and real estate. That transition to a more diversified portfolio aimed at weathering a range of market conditions while mitigating risk has also come with a choppier path of gains and losses since 2021, including a 9.1 per cent net loss in 2022.

Fed into the performance-based formula, those figures have meant former Queen’s employee Gordon Crawley has received no increases since he retired in November 2021. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) has risen by more than 16 per cent over that time frame, according to Bank of Canada data.

Crawley worked as an operating engineer in the central heating plant at Queen’s until he retired the same year UPP was launched after 37 years with the university. He says it’s been difficult, especially knowing he won’t get any additional payments to top up his pension and help deal with inflation until the fund’s returns have made up for lost ground.

A UPP statement he received says that any shortfall for years when the return is calculated at less than the target level of six per cent has to be made up by future returns before new increases can happen.

“I am very concerned about the future, so concerned that I have had to have serious discussions with my children about the possibility of selling my house and moving in with them,” he said.

“With inflation rising every year and my pension staying stagnant, my financial security is waning…. I am concerned about being able to continue taking care of my financial responsibilities and my family.”

Inflation has taken a couple of notable upward swings in recent years. After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, countries including Canada experienced a spike in inflation that was expected to be short-lived but persisted, causing central banks to raise interest rates. Food prices have also continued to rise in Canada, putting a strain on some households, while the war in the Middle East that began in late February caused oil prices to soar, which has caused inflation to rise again.

“We recognize that periods with little or no increases, particularly in a higher inflation environment, can be challenging for retirees,” a spokesperson for UPP said, noting that it has always been a feature of the Queen’s pension that increases are not directly tied to inflation and can vary year to year.

She said the structure also ensures that pensions being paid out don’t decrease, and added that the return-based indexation formula used by Queen’s can deliver materially higher increases in periods of low inflation than calculations based on the CPI, which are used by UPP and its other participating universities.

“While CPI-based indexation may appear more favourable in periods of higher inflation, the inverse has also been true,” she said.

Michelle Lewis, director of media relations and issues at Queen’s, responded to questions about the indexation formula and whether changing it is under consideration with an emailed statement that said the university “remains engaged” with the University Pension Plan.

“(This involves) ongoing dialogue to better understand its long-term investment strategy and how it supports the interests of its members, including those from Queen’s,” she wrote.

The choppier returns haven’t had the same impact on conditional indexation for UPP members from the universities other than Queen’s because their formulas — also kept in place after the merger with UPP — are based on the consumer price index (CPI) rather than the pension fund’s performance. And any pension benefits accrued since UPP was formed are subject that same CPI-based formula, even for Queen’s employees.

The creation of the multi-employer UPP — initially with Queen’s, the University of Toronto and Guelph University and later expanded to include six post-secondary institutions and others in the sector, with total membership exceeding 44,000 — was promoted by Queen’s in 2021 as a way to address the financial challenges facing university pension plans that would allow employees to keep defined benefit pensions. At the same time, proponents said cost-savings and investment opportunities would come with scale and professional management in addition to advantages like increased career flexibility and pension portability.

Another selling point was that employees and employers would share responsibility for decision-making about the terms and conditions of the plan going forward.

Kenneth Kroner, a veteran investment professional and former acting chair of Alberta Investment Management Corp. (AIMCo), said pensions that can invest and manage funds at scale generally deliver better security for pensioners. Moreover, using conditional indexation formulas based on fund performance has some merit because it ensures payouts aren’t made if returns aren’t there to back them.

“Supporters probably argue that protecting the endowment is good for future retirees, and therefore best in the long run,” he said, adding that this line of thinking holds up even when it comes at the expense of current retirees as Queen’s is experiencing.

But he said there is also a case to be made for changing the CPI-based indexation formula used by UPP and the universities other than Queen’s because if the pension pays current retirees higher benefits than the fund is able to afford, it will only create future problems.

“One formula — Queen’s’ — bases increases only on the ability of the fund to pay, while the other formula — CPI — bases increases only on the needs of the beneficiaries,” he said. “But my view is that both should be considered in the formula. So if I were ‘king for a day,’ I’d be changing both formulas.”

• Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com

Inflation data gives Bank of Canada more flexibility to hold interest rates, economists say

Jane Switzer — Tue, 19 May 2026 18:46:35 +0000

Weakness in core inflation measures amid spiking oil prices points to the Bank of Canada having more flexibility to hold interest rates steady , economists say.

The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 2.8 per cent last month, according to Statistics Canada on Tuesday, but headline inflation was lower than economists’ consensus of 3.1 per cent and below the three per cent forecast by the central bank in its April monetary policy report.

Here’s what economists think the latest data means for the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement on June 10.

Core price pressures ‘nowhere to be seen’: Capital Economics

Capital Economics Ltd. chief North America economist Stephen Brown said the “downside surprise” on headline inflation was partly because food prices came in weaker than expected.

Overall food prices in the United States jumped 0.5 per cent between March and April to 3.2 per cent on an annualized basis, according to CPI data released last week. But food inflation in Canada slowed to 3.5 per cent in April from four per cent in March.

However, Brown said the surprise was mainly because the potential indirect effects of higher fuel costs aren’t putting pressure on core inflation. Excluding food and energy, CPI slowed to 1.5 per cent in April, the lowest level since March 2021.

He said the “even better news” for the Bank of Canada is that the average annual rate for its preferred measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, is also at a five-year low of 2.1 per cent.

That partly reflects the softness of the labour market and consumer demand and reduces pressure on the central bank “to follow through with the interest rate hikes that are priced into markets for the coming months,” he said in a note.

Inflationary fears ‘off the mark’: Rosenberg Research

Aside from energy, inflation was “nowhere to be found” in April, Robert Embree, vice-president and senior economist at Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said.

“The key macro story is the broad-based cooling in all of the core inflation components, which gives the Bank of Canada plenty of room to consider cutting later in the year instead of hiking,” he said in a note.

He said markets still see almost two hikes priced in by the end of 2026, but that’s a path that “relies on a much more inflationary outcome” than the data support.

“With Canada’s jobs engine totally stalled out, the tighter-than-necessary financial conditions from the priced-in rate path are increasingly at odds with the underlying economic reality,” he said.

Embree said prices for services fell 0.3 per cent from March, “even without excluding energy-sensitive transport components.” Year over year, service inflation grew 1.7 per cent.

“Without any wage growth, we won’t see any burst of services inflation,” he said. “Unemployment is too high to get significant inflationary pass-through from this energy shock.”

Economy still has slack: CIBC

“Muted” core inflation supports the Bank of Canada’s “wait-and-see stance” on interest rates, Andrew Grantham, executive director and senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said.

“While price pressures may accelerate further ahead, the weakness of core inflationary measures as oil prices were initially spiking is an indication of the slack that exists within the Canadian economy, which will continue to put downward pressure on inflation components that aren’t greatly affected by oil prices,” he said in a note.

He said core measures of inflation are “likely to accelerate again over the summer” as airfare price increases show up in the data and higher transportation costs lead to prices rising in other areas, including food.

“However, the slack currently in the economy will limit the extent of that acceleration, and we continue to forecast that the Bank of Canada will hold its overnight rate at 2.25 per cent throughout the remainder of the year,” he said.

Rate hike bets pared back: KPMG Canada

The big question for the Bank of Canada is how much of the energy price shock will spill over into core inflation and when, Ali Jaffery, chief economist and partner at KPMG Canada, said.

“Based on our modelling work, the pass-through into core inflation from an oil supply shock, in and of itself, should be fairly modest and could take about a year to materialize,” he said in a note.

While risks remain around the Iran war and the potential for broader supply chain disruptions, he said from an “inflation point of view,” it also matters that the energy shock is hitting an economy already facing a soft labour market, tepid growth and uncertainty around the state of Canada–U.S. trade relations.

“Those forces matter a lot and will likely limit businesses’ ability to pass on price gains from the energy shock,” he said. “We continue to expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year, assuming the conflict is resolved in the coming month or so.”

• Email: jswitzer@postmedia.com

Posthaste: These 5 reasons are holding back oil prices for now, economists say

Gigi Suhanic — Tue, 19 May 2026 12:00:16 +0000

The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has been called one of the largest oil supply shocks in history, leaving some to wonder why prices aren’t even higher than they are.

“It’s a question that we are often asked,” Art Woo, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal , said in a note on May 15.

The United States-Israel war on Iran stranded about 20 million barrels per day of oil and oil-related products due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices initially jumped, but have since held around US$100 per barrel.

There are a few reasons why people have so far been spared an even worse hit to their pocketbooks, though economists aren’t convinced the pain is contained.

Woo estimated three-quarters of the stranded barrels are crude oil, while the rest are crude-oil products such as diesel and jet fuel .

Faced with a bottleneck in the strait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have increased flows through pipelines they operate by about six million barrels per day, leaving the rest of the world to account for the remainder of the shortfall.

Supplies are being drawn from the sovereign petroleum reserve and countries such as Canada, Norway and Venezuela have increased production, Woo said.

Elevated prices, especially in countries that depend on the Middle East for their energy supplies, have also led to demand destruction, the economist said.

For example, some Asian and African countries have resorted to purchases of certain products and are dealing with power outages and reduced working hours.

There are other reasons the pain has been relatively contained, National Bank of Canada said, including a world economy that uses less oil per unit of gross domestic product and oil production that, prior to the start of the conflict, outpaced consumption by about four million barrels per day.

National Bank economist Jocelyn Paquet also said the rise in oil prices depends on the duration of the supply shock. In this case, the Iran conflict is still in its early days compared with the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, which lasted five months.

However, both Woo and Paquet warned uncertainty looms over the outlook and energy prices.

For example, Paquet said she doesn’t think energy markets can count on further production increases.

“Even U.S. shale producers, reputed to be among the most agile and responsive in the world, would likely need three to six months before they could bring additional supply to the market,” she said in a note on May 15.

Absent a resolution to the nearly three-month-old conflict, Paquet predicts the world will continue to depend on governments’ strategic petroleum reserves and commercial reserves to make up for the oil shortfall.

She estimated those two sources have so far contributed 3.2 million and 4.8 million barrels per day, respectively, but said the U.S.’s reserves are on track to fall to their lowest levels since 1982 if the expected “drawdown” takes place.

“Other countries find themselves in a similar situation,” she said, warning that further demand destruction that spreads to Europe could be the only route to bringing energy prices to heel.

For now, other less tangible factors are keeping a lid on oil prices, Woo said.

“We suspect prices are also still being held back by hopes/expectations that the conflict will come to an end and the strait will reopen relatively soon,” he said.

He said he thinks Donald Trump will likely want Americans to be paying less at the pump in the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections in November.

At the moment, oil market futures predict West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will fall to US$80 per barrel by December, compared with US$105 as of May 15.

“Still, we can’t help but wonder if such a view may be slightly too optimistic,” Woo said.

Posthaste: Why the chances of a Canadian housing market rebound in 2026 have 'slipped away'

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International investors remained a “critical part” of the purchase of government of Canada bonds, according to economists at National Bank of Canada, following the release of Canada’s international transactions in securities for March.

Foreign investors’ ownership share of government of Canada bonds rose to a new monthly record in March of 40.9 per cent, Warren Lovely, Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie said in a note on May 15, adding that during fiscal year 2025-26, foreign investors expanded their holdings by more than $60 billion.

“This is a non-trivial buying pace, equivalent to nearly two per cent of GDP on an annualized basis,” they said.

Today’s data: Canada consumer price index for April, building permits for March, U.S. pending home sales
Earnings: Home Depot Inc., Toll Brothers Inc.

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McLister on mortgages

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

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Who was Thucydides, the ancient Greek general referenced by Carney and Xi?

Jane Switzer — Fri, 15 May 2026 23:55:43 +0000

During his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jingping posed a question: “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides trap?’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” It was the second prominent reference to the ancient Greek general and historian made by a world leader this year, the first being by Prime Minister Mark Carney during his speech at Davos in January. So, why is Thucydides having a political moment, and what makes his writing relevant today?

Who was Thucydides?

Thucydides was a Greek general and historian known for penning the “History of the Peloponnesian War,” an account of the conflict between Sparta and Athens — the two dominant powers of Ancient Greece — that lasted from 431 to 404 BCE.

As a general during the early part of the war, Thucydides was an eyewitness to many events and his writing stands out for being more of a “logical analysis” compared to other writing from the time that leaned on storytelling and mythology, said Michael Carter, a professor in the department of classics and archaeology at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ont.

“It’s very rational, almost scientific in a way,” said Carter. “And in many ways, I would say he’s the first real modern Western historian.”

While the “History of the Peloponnesian War” is considered a foundational work, the man who wrote it is more mysterious. What little is known about Thucydides’ personal life is in his book and, for reasons unknown, his account of the war ends mid-sentence in 411 BCE.

What did Xi say about Thucydides?

During the summit on Thursday, President Xi posed a series of questions to President Trump about future relations between their two countries, including the one referencing the ‘Thucydides trap.’

The term ‘Thucydides trap’ was popularized by political scientist Graham Allison in “Destined for War,” his 2017 book about China–U.S. relations. It the idea that conflict is the likely outcome when a rising power threatens to challenge a ruling one (in the 16 historical examples Allison cites, only four avoid it).

The theory is derived from a line in the “History of the Peloponnesian War”: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,” according to a common translation.

“That’s what Graham Allison’s argument is, that the United States is the hegemon or the leader of the world and then there’s China as a rapidly rising power,” Carter said. “And at one point, something is going to happen and there’s going to be a break.”

In response to his own questions, Xi said the two leaders would have to answer them together.

What did Carney say?

In his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Carney also referenced a Thucydides quote.

“It seems that every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must,” Carney said in his remarks.

The line about the strong and weak comes from the Melian dialogue portion of Thucydides’ book and describes the Athenians’ capture of the strategically important island of Melos.

In discussions between the two sides’ leaders, Carter said the Melians’ arguments for why it was unjust to attack an independent state centered around ethics, morality and justice. This didn’t sway their invaders — when the Melians resisted, the Athenians killed all the men and enslaved the women and children.

“What the Athenians are saying to the Melians at this point is, ‘it’s nothing personal. We’re stronger than you and big fish eat little fish, and if you don’t put on your big boy pants and join our empire, we’ll destroy you,’” Carter said.

Why is the ancient historian being referenced now?

Carter said Thucydides is considered the “guiding light” of political realism, the philosophy that states operate out of self-interest and the pursuit of power, not morals or ethics.

In his Davos speech, Carney said Thucydides’ aphorism about the strong and the weak is presented as “inevitable” or the “natural logic” of international relations. But compliance won’t buy safety, he said, urging middle power countries to build strategic autonomy and stating that Canada would pursue a “values-based realism” approach to foreign policy.

Carter said Thucydides’ quote is sometimes misunderstood as an endorsement rather than a historian’s observation about the attitude that led to the decline of a great city-state, which was ultimately defeated by Sparta.

“I think what Thucydides is describing here is the tragedy of Athens and the foreshadowing of the destruction of Athens,” he said.

Carter said the conflict between Sparta and Athens endures as a template for the theory of clashes between great powers because it represents a key theme that historians see repeated: a dominant power challenged by a rising one.

“The remarkable thing is Thucydides knew that, because he understood human nature,” said Carter. “And that’s one of the very first things he says in the book is that, ‘I’m writing this as an example, for all time, because people don’t change, and this will happen again.’”

How the Iran war is impacting markets: FP Video explains

Financial Post Staff — Sat, 16 May 2026 11:00:16 +0000

This week FP Video looks the impact the on-again-paused-again United States-Iran war is having on global markets and government bonds , a look behind the scenes at what it takes to keep WestJet flying, the Canadian Cattle Association’s beef with the Mercosur-bloc South American trade deal .

Bond market today is a ‘troubling place’

Som Seif, chief executive of Purpose Investments, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how markets are reacting to the Iran war, China and U.S. relations and the biggest threats on the horizon.

How the Mercosur deal could undermine Canada’s beef industry

Tyler Fulton, president of the Canadian Cattle Association, talks about the risks of a South American trade deal to cattle producers in Canada and to Canadian consumers.

Inside WestJet’s Calgary maintenance hub

WestJet chief executive Alexis von Hoensbroech gives Financial Post an exclusive look behind the scenes of what it takes to keep a fleet of planes flying.

Posthaste: Why the chances of a Canadian housing market rebound in 2026 have 'slipped away'

Gigi Suhanic — Fri, 15 May 2026 12:00:37 +0000

A housing market rebound in 2026 is unlikely based on the latest numbers released Thursday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), say economists.

“Expectations for a marked recovery in Canadian housing activity have been dialed back again,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a note.

April sales rose 0.7 per cent from the month before, but he said “no one is going to mistake that for a sign of spring for the chilly housing market,” given that sales remain four per cent below year-ago levels and 10 per cent off of the norm for this time of the year.

Prices are also down four per cent from a year ago and 20.5 per cent off the pandemic peak in February 2022.

“At this point in the year, the chance for a full-blown housing rebound has likely slipped away,” Clay Jarvis, who covers mortgages at NerdWallet Canada, said in a note.

Toronto-Dominion economist Rishi Sondhi was a little more optimistic about the CREA numbers since Ontario posted a “solid” sales gain of 4.3 per cent month over month and the average home price across Canada rose 2.6 per cent in April from March.

He said the slight drop in the sales-to-new-listings ratio “is well below the long-term average and signals modest price growth moving forward.”

TD is calling for an increase in prices and sales for the second quarter, but Sondhi said that won’t be enough to pull the market out of its overall slump.

“This will likely only partially retrace significant first-quarter weakness, leaving an overall subdued picture for the first half of the year,” he said.

Sondhi also said the once-hot housing market faces plenty of economic headwinds, including weak population growth, elevated supply in key markets and a “shaky” jobs picture.

But Porter said the current sales-to-new-listings ratio points to a further contraction in prices and indicates “little prospect for a quick turn anytime soon.”

He said further price decreases are needed to improve affordability, which remains far below historical norms despite recent price declines and a drop in interest rates.

On a provincial basis, Ontario and British Columbia, the country’s housing heavy hitters for prices and sales, had been the biggest drags on the overall market, but other “once-solid” regions are showing signs of cooling, the CREA report said.

For example, sales dropped by double digits in Edmonton, Winnipeg and Halifax, while previously “sizzling” Calgary posted a nearly 10 per cent drop in sales and a decline in its home price index.

“Given the lingering affordability issues in many regions of the country, and the now-distant prospect of any further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, it’s tough to see the market springing to life anytime soon,” Porter said.

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Canada is on track to build an AI supercomputer so powerful it could crack the top 10 to 15 globally, says AI and Digital Innovation Minister Evan Solomon.

Canada is currently the only G7 country without a supercomputer that ranks in the top 25, according to an index that tracks the most powerful high-performance computers. — Yvonne Lau, Financial Post

Read the full story here.

Governor General Mary Simon will invest six officers and eight Members into the Order of Canada during a ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa
Today’s data: Canada housing starts, international securities transactions and manufacturing sales
Earnings: HLS Therapeutics Inc., Conifex Timber Inc.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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