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Metro reports higher earnings, calls out impact of ongoing strike in Quebec

Denise Paglinawan — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 13:57:07 +0000

Metro Inc. said the ongoing labour dispute at its Quebec operations will have an impact on its third quarter results, as the strike hit its fourth week.

Workers at the grocer’s produce distribution centre in Laval, Que. began the strike on Mar. 30, just ahead of the Easter long weekend, affecting produce supply at its stores in the province.

“We are obviously disappointed by this strike,” chief executive Eric La Flèche said during the company’s second quarter earnings call on Wednesday.

The retailer said the strike did not affect its second quarter earnings.

“We have been back at the bargaining table since April 8, and remain determined to reach an agreement that takes into account the needs of our employees and those of our customers, while ensuring the long-term competitiveness of our company,” he said.

The CEO declined to share details on the direct costs incurred as a result of the strike, but said further details would be provided “in due course.”

“We lost some sales. When you lose sales, you lose the bottom line,” he told analysts. “So clearly, it has had an impact.”

La Flèche said the first days of the labour dispute required some adjustments while Metro’s contingency plan, now in place, was being fully implemented. He said the stores, although not in perfect condition, are now generally well-stocked, and the retailer “can answer most of the customer needs” in Quebec stores.

He added that retail stock was “looking better every day,” with some small varieties missing from one store to another or from time to time.

“So hopefully we’ll settle the strike. The demands at the table are not reasonable and can’t be accepted,” he said.

The company released the results on Wednesday morning, reporting net earnings of $246.6 million, up 12.1 per cent from $220 million in the previous year. Fully diluted net earnings per share were $1.16, up 17.2 per cent from $0.99 in 2025.

Its sales for the quarter ended Mar. 14 were $5.113 billion, a 4.1 per cent increase from the prior year. Metro said these were positively impacted by new store openings, same-store sales growth, as well as the transfer of one significant pre-Christmas shopping day to the second quarter this year.

Food same-store sales were up 1.8 per cent, while online food sales were up 19.8 per cent over last year. Pharmacy same-store sales were up 5.1 per cent.

On an adjusted basis, its net earnings for the second quarter totalled $236.5 million, up 4.4 per cent compared with $226.6 million for the same quarter last year. Adjusted fully diluted net earnings per share were $1.11, up 8.8 per cent from $1.02 in 2025.

• Email: dpaglinawan@postmedia.com

Mark Podlasly: First Nations are owners and investors, not obstacles to development

Special to Financial Post — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 16:12:44 +0000

Canada is entering a moment of enormous opportunity in energy, minerals and infrastructure — and much of that opportunity is taking place on Indigenous lands. Global instability has reshaped energy and commodity markets , creating unprecedented demand for the resources this country holds in abundance. Trade relationships that once seemed permanent are fracturing. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have proven that the world is far too reliant on global dictators for access to energy. Canada’s allies are competing to secure critical minerals , LNG and clean energy infrastructure .

At the same time, there is growing domestic appetite across party lines to accelerate the “nation-building” projects that will define Canada’s competitiveness for decades to come. Demand for what this country holds in abundance has never been higher.

Indigenous Peoples are not waiting for permission to move ahead with this once-in-a-generation opportunity. Across the country, we are stepping into leadership roles, securing equity ownership, shaping project governance and setting the terms on how development should proceed on our territories. This is our moment to be bold. This is our moment to lead and advance the terms of engagement for major projects.

Contrary to how we’ve been treated in the past, Indigenous Peoples are not obstacles to development . We are owners, investors and decision-makers. A brief survey of projects across the country provides ample evidence of this leadership.

In the Yukon, Selkirk First Nation initiated a process to secure full ownership of the Minto Mine, including equity stakes and royalties. In British Columbia, Tahltan First Nation concluded a consent agreement for the Eskay Mine and Haisla First Nation is advancing Cedar LNG as a landmark Indigenous-led energy project. Nisga’a Nation is also a partner in Ksi Lisims LNG. In Ontario, Taykwa Tagamou Nation invested $20 million in Canada Nickel’s Crawford project, securing a 7.9 per cent equity stake and a seat on the board. In Manitoba, Norway House Cree Nation purchased the Minago mine outright.

These are not isolated examples. They reflect a fundamental shift in how Indigenous Peoples engage with resource development. More and more, we are moving from consultation to co-ownership and making concrete decisions about projects that impact our land and our communities .

The expectation among Indigenous advocates is clear: Projects on our territories must include real ownership and governance, not just employment targets or benefit-sharing agreements negotiated after decisions have already been made. This model has been proven to work not only for Indigenous communities, but for everyone involved.

Authentic Indigenous leadership de-risks major projects in ways that benefit our communities as well as investors, governments and natural resource proponents. When Indigenous Peoples hold equity, we become co-owners with a direct stake in project success, aligning interests for capital markets and creating clearer pathways for responsible development. Indigenous leadership also brings critical expertise that strengthens outcomes. Our people have watched over these lands since time immemorial.

Our knowledge of local ecosystems and long-term environmental stewardship strengthens project planning and reduces unforeseen risks.

New economic tools are accelerating the transformation: access to emerging instruments such as Indigenous bonds and sovereign wealth-like funds are enabling communities to access the financing required for major equity investments. Major financial institutions like RBC and Scotiabank are already backing Indigenous-led investment groups to support co-ownership in major projects. The federal government has also wisely expanded the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program.

While these mechanisms do work, they remain undersized relative to the opportunity.

Unlocking the full potential of Indigenous leadership will require significantly scaling these programs and integrating public and private capital in ways that lower borrowing costs for Indigenous investors, while attracting institutional partners.

The reality is that if Canada wants to move major projects to market quickly, Indigenous Peoples must be at the table. We are not looking to slow things down.

In fact, when Indigenous communities are partners and owners from the beginning, projects are stronger, communities benefit and Canada is better positioned to meet the challenges ahead.

When projects move forward through collaboration, economic reconciliation and national competitiveness can have a mutually reinforcing effect. When Indigenous Peoples share in the prosperity generated by projects on our territories, we can generate own-source revenue that builds our capacity for self-determination and cultivates the intergenerational resources that safeguard the well-being of future generations.

The global window for this opportunity will not stay open indefinitely. Competition for critical minerals, energy and infrastructure investment is intensifying. The jurisdictions that can deliver results — with credible partnerships, clear governance and durable community support — will secure the capital and trading relationships that others will struggle to attract.

Indigenous advocates are ready to lead. We are ready to forge new partnerships with those who recognize the strategic advantage we can offer. Industry and government would be wise to meet this moment with us — moving beyond the realm of duty and obligation, into a new framework that treats Indigenous Peoples as equal partners shaping a shared future.

Mark Podlasly is a member of the Nlaka’pamux Nation and the chief executive officer of the First Nations Major Projects Coalition. FNMPC will hold its Annual Conference in Toronto from April 29th-May 1st, exploring the theme of creating prosperity for The Next Seven Generations.

Posthaste: Perks, not pay, needed to attract in-demand tech workers

Ben Cousins — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 12:00:10 +0000

Canadian businesses are finding it difficult to attract top talent in the technology space as workers push for more flexibility and perks.

More than 55 per cent of businesses say attracting top tech talent is a major priority this year, while 70 per cent say it’s harder than ever before to do so, according to a recent survey by International Workplace Group (IWG).

Tech fluency, especially related to artificial intelligence, has become one of the most attractive skills in the job market, with 20 per cent of businesses viewing such skills as more important than a university degree.

It’s not just Canadian business having trouble, with 72 per cent of businesses worldwide reporting difficulty in filling roles in the tech space, according to a February survey of more than 39,000 employers across 41 countries by ManpowerGroup Global Inc.

The talent shortage has climbed from 40 per cent in 2016, though it is down slightly from the previous two years, the report said.

Overall, AI skills have overtaken traditional tech skills as the most in demand.

As tech employees become increasingly important for many Canadian companies, workers have gained leverage in the job market and have the power to attract perks that may have been unavailable even a decade ago.

Businesses have realized that total compensation is no longer the only factor when it comes to attracting in-demand tech workers, as 34 per cent said they use a hybrid working arrangement and 28 per cent said they use stock option plans.

Work-life balance and flexibility for generation Z Canadians rank higher than compensation when it comes to company culture.

“The message from leaders — and particularly from younger generations — is clear: companies that do not embed hybrid working into their culture risk losing out in the race for tech talent and accessing the skills they need to remain competitive,” IWG chief executive Mark Dixon said in a news release.

But as more Canadian workers prioritize flexible working conditions, more companies are paring such arrangements down.

Workers at Amazon.com Inc., several Canadian banks and provincial workers in Ontario and Alberta have all been forced to scale back remote work since it became the trend during COVID-19.

Spring is traditionally the busiest time for real estate and this year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Follow our Spring Real Estate Survival Guide series as we unpack some of the most pressing questions buyers and sellers are grappling with, plus expert advice on how to navigate the reality of a slower market. Read the series here

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Rogers Communications Inc. was once the top performer in Canada’s telecom sector, but a wireless price war has it falling behind its fiercest competitors.

Telecom companies aim to secure new customers in a race that ultimately lowers prices and squeezes company profits.

With Rogers reporting earnings today, analysts expect growth of just two per cent, which is likely to hurt its stock.

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

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Why timing the bottom of Canada's roller-coaster real estate market may be harder than you think

Garry Marr — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 10:00:48 +0000

Everyone connected to Canada’s housing market is asking the same question as the spring market, historically the busiest time of year, gets underway: Have we hit the bottom?

From realtors to economists to lenders to developers — not to mention would-be home buyers and sellers — all are looking for signs of whether the real estate market will finally see a turnaround from declining prices.

It’s a situation that seemed unfathomable during a two-decade bull run when the country’s housing market defied every expectation to the upside. But for those who have been in the game long enough, the correction that began in 2022 — and which has seen the average national sale price for existing homes decline by nearly 20 per cent to $663,828 from $816,720 in February 2022, according to CREA — was not just fathomable, but inevitable.

Frank Clayton, now a senior research fellow at Toronto Metropolitan University, started his career at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. in 1967, when “the oldtimers” would look at every twist and turn in the housing market and say they had seen it before.

“This is a fairly similar housing cycle,” said Clayton, with a laugh. “We always have a situation where demand kind of shoots up and supply can’t keep up for various reasons, and prices explode. And then the government gets into a panic mode and does something after the peak has been reached.”

Typically, the government does all kinds of things to bring more land and supply to the market, which is already happening. That improves affordability, he said, only to put us back into the same cycle again.

“We had it in the early 1970s and we had it in the late 1980s,” said Clayton. “Now the contraction is the same, too.”

So what are consumers to do? Should they wait and try and time the bottom of the cycle? There are factors that make that difficult, Clayton said. Aside from needing to separate housing by segment and geography, the bigger picture — what is happening with the economy, including tariffs and the Middle East war and their potential effect on inflation and interest rates — makes predictability harder than ever.

Even within segments, there is variation.

“I will say condos are definitely not at the bottom; there are just so many condos,” Clayton said.

But single-family homes are another story.

“The demographics across the country do support single-family houses in a huge way,” he said. “There is just no further to go down.”

Boaz Feiner, a principal of Markham, Ont.-based Geranium Homes, said his company has four projects on the go right now, but, like many builders, it has more in the pipeline and has been waiting on the sidelines for the market to break in their direction.

“It’s hard to push water up a hill waiting for the market, but conditions are already changing,” he said.

A veteran of almost three decades in the market, Feiner said one of the major issues the market has faced has been the unknown, and that is starting to clear.

He said the federal and provincial governments had created expectations for market changes, such as development charge deferrals, that had not been enacted. Now, that uncertainty has been removed, and developers no longer need to pay those charges until homes are occupied.

“That’s a check mark, an unknown is a known,” he said, adding that a joint federal government and Ontario agreement to remove the harmonized sales tax on new homes for all buyers will have a major impact on stabilizing the market. The tax break was previously only available to first-time buyers.

He said sales were already on the uptick before the announcement, although he emphasized that might be more applicable to the low-rise end of the market.

“People have been waiting on the sidelines to see what levers the government might pull,” said Feiner.

Despite more certainty on the policy side, Dan Eisner, chief executive of Calgary-based True North Mortgage, said consumers are now facing a new risk that for a little while at least seemed to be off the table: rate uncertainty. But a conflict in the Middle East driving up oil and inflation seems to have put rising rates back on the table

“Our clients are doing one of two things. They’re either flipping into a variable because the five-year fixed rates have really kind of spiked along with oil prices and bond yields,” he said. Or, he added, some will just wait on the sidelines.

In just three to four weeks, five-year fixed rates have climbed 50 basis points, which means going with floating-rate debt tied to prime and Bank of Canada decisions, or maybe just waiting for long-term rates to come down.

Lower consumer demand could put additional downward pressure on prices.

“I can’t imagine a market that likes uncertainty. Yeah, that’s true for businesses and for homebuyers. They’re looking at this and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to oil prices? What’s going to happen to prime?’” said Eisner.

He also said the larger economy is a major factor in housing, and that trade with the United States could also impact housing down the road.

“Family income is the number one predictor of whether you buy a house or not. A person doesn’t buy a house if they don’t have a job, and they don’t buy a house if they’re worried about their job,” he said.

Brittany Kostov, senior director of sales with real estate company Zoocasa, said it’s really just too hard to grab the exact bottom or top of any market.

“We look at four stages: recovery, expansion, hyper-supply and then recession,” said Kostov. “Bottoms usually happen in a late recession phase when prices have already corrected and inventory is plentiful and buyers are still nervous. This is where several of our markets are today.”

She added that real estate differs sharply by market, but noted condos may be the exception, with corrections happening across the country. “Prices are declining gently, so a significant part of this reset has already happened,” said Kostov.

It raises the obvious question of why buy now if the market is going to fall even more, but the real estate executive said the downward trend on pricing has already slowed.

CREA’s numbers for the resale market show February prices were almost unchanged, down 0.2 per cent, from the same month last year.

“I think you are looking for price declines to come almost to a standstill,” said Kostov, adding there is still a lot of inventory that has to be cleared in major markets. “Buyers just have not returned to the market. They are still hesitating. What the bottom looks like is when buyers feel like they might miss out again. The spring market will be the real test of whether these markets are really turning.”

Robert Kavcic, senior economist at the Bank of Montreal, said there is scope for another five to 10 per cent on the downside, but it depends on the market.

“If you look at places like the B.C. condo market, there is still a ton of supply in the pipeline,” he said. “Bigger picture is there is probably more downside into the spring, and then it will just be an environment of prices flattening out and going sideways for a long period of time.”

He said you can look to investors to really understand why the pricing today doesn’t work. “Returns are just too low (based on rental income), so prices have to adjust lower to clear the market,” said Kavcic.

From the homebuyer’s perspective, affordability is still a challenge at these prices, so the inventory won’t clear.

“Unless interest rates fall, you will see further downside in prices to get affordability to a level to bring demand back, and we don’t think interest rates will fall this year,” Kavcic said.

But even a veteran such as Clayton said some things can still surprise him. “There was this explosion of immigration that was new, and now we are having a population decline,” he said. “Some things you can’t predict. Who predicted this war?”

• Email: gmarr@postmedia.com

Domestic travel continues upward trend as Canadians adjust summer plans to rising costs: Expedia

Special to Financial Post — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 18:02:48 +0000

Rising costs and tighter budgets are reshaping how Canadians travel this summer, with many choosing destinations closer to home while still holding onto plans for long-haul trips to Europe, according to a new outlook from Expedia Group.

Expedia’s summer travel outlook, released Monday, suggests a continued preference for domestic travel as Canadians look to stretch their dollars in a weakening economy. Many are holidaying close to home, visiting other Canadian cities or choosing European destinations outside of the traditional capitals.

“Canadians are rethinking how they travel this summer,” said Melanie Fish, head of public relations for Expedia Group brands. “We’re seeing travellers balance rising costs by choosing road trips, shorter flights and familiar destinations at home — while still making room in their plans for dream trips to Europe.”

While major cities like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal remain popular, there has been a surge in interest for smaller and nature-focused destinations. Among the top trending Canadian locations are Edmonton and Jasper, both up 35 per cent in search demand. On the East Coast, Halifax rose 25 per cent, followed by Charlottetown and Moncton at 20 per cent.

Cities such as Regina, Windsor, Edmonton and Saskatoon are also among the most affordable places to stay, while smaller cities like Abbotsford and Penticton rank among the cheapest destinations for domestic flights.

Despite the shift toward local travel, international trips , particularly to Europe, remain a priority for many Canadians. Traditional hotspots like Paris, London and Rome continue to top the list, but travellers are increasingly seeking alternatives that offer similar experiences at a lower cost.

In Italy, there has been a significant rise in interest for regions such as Sicily (up 115 per cent) and Puglia (up 80 per cent). Other European destinations gaining traction include the Balearic Islands in Spain, up 75 per cent, and Copenhagen, Denmark, which climbed 70 per cent.

The data suggests Canadians are becoming more selective about international travel, opting for cities or regions that offer the most impact without breaking the bank.

According to Expedia, the cheapest days to fly domestically this summer are June 5 and June 11, while international travel is most affordable on June 4 and August 31. Early June and late August, in particular, offer opportunities to avoid peak pricing.

To further reduce expenses, the company recommends bundling flights and accommodations, using price tracking tools and booking early for peak travel periods.

Travel experts say being flexible and planning ahead will be key strategies for Canadians navigating higher costs this summer.

Canadian satellite startup NorthStar on track to hit US$300-million valuation after SPAC merger

Yvonne Lau — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 14:43:23 +0000

Montreal-based satellite startup NorthStar Earth & Space Inc. says it intends to go public on the New York Stock Exchange by merging with special acquisition purpose company (SPAC) Viking Acquisition Corp. I as investor interest in the space sector grows.

The transaction, expected to close in the third quarter, will boost NorthStar’s valuation to US$300 million, with the company set to receive US$30 million from New York private-equity firm Cartesian Capital Group LLC and other unnamed institutional investors from Canada and the United States.

NorthStar, which provides data and other services from its platform of space-based sensors, plans to use the money to pay for engineering costs and launch expenses, which include placing and integrating sensors on satellites.

“At this critical juncture, becoming a public company provides NorthStar with unprecedented access to capital to scale our operations,” NorthStar founder and chief executive Stewart Bain said in a statement on Friday.

Founded in 2015, NorthStar has raised US$100 million to date from public and private investors. The startup received early support from the federal and Quebec governments, which invested $13 million each in 2018 to help it build a satellite constellation for earth and space monitoring.

NorthStar has secured contracts with Canadian, U.S. and European governments, including contracts with national space agencies, as well as a commercial contract with the United Arab Emirates’ space tech company Space42 PLC.

Last month, Ottawa said $900 million will be directed to innovation under Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy as part of its commitment to grow investments in defence to $82 billion over five years. A NorthStar spokesperson said the company’s core mission “directly” aligns with Ottawa’s defence priorities to “protect critical assets in space and serve as a front line of defence.”

Investor interest in the dual-use space has surged as governments boost spending on space-based security, surveillance and communications technology.

Investors this year poured a record US$36 billion into space companies in the first quarter compared to US$6.7 billion in the same period a year ago, according to venture-capital firm Space Capital LP.

An initial public offering by Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which is set to come later this year and could be the biggest IPO ever at US$75 billion, is also likely to grow interest in the sector.

A December 2025 report by the Royal Bank of Canada said the global space economy is on track to triple in value to US$1.8 trillion over the next decade, while the opportunities in Canada could amount to more than $21 billion if it can generate $12 billion in new capital for homegrown space ventures during the same timeframe.

• Email: ylau@postmedia.com

Bank of Canada appoints two deputy governors

Ben Cousins — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 19:11:39 +0000

The Bank of Canada has named a pair of deputy governors to its inner circle, as it weighs economic policy in challenging times.

Marc-André Gosselin and Nicolas Vincent will begin their appointments effective May 25 and Aug. 3, respectively.

Gosselin, who’s held various roles with the central bank since 1999, will join the Bank of Canada’s governing council, responsible for monetary policy and financial stability.

“(Gosselin’s) breadth of experience across both monetary policy and financial stability, and his deep modelling and analytical expertise will be an important asset to Governing Council as our country adjusts to a changing economic landscape,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said in a statement.

Vincent has been a part of the governing council since 2023 as an external deputy governor, but will now take a full-time role. He is in charge of international economic developments and will serve as the Bank’s deputy in the G7 and G20.

The bank is now in the process of filling Vincent’s external deputy position.

The Bank of Canada’ next interest rate decision is scheduled for April 29.

• Email: bcousins@postmedia.com

Posthaste: This fiscal edge has helped Canada become the 'cleanest dirty shirt' in the G7

Pamela Heaven — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:15:14 +0000

As it prepares an update on its finances next week, Canada has received praise from some lofty channels.

“Across the Group of Seven, Canada’s probably in the strongest position fiscally,” Nigel Chalk, director of the International Monetary Fund’s Western Hemisphere Department, said last week in an Bloomberg interview in Washington.

What does Canada have going for it? For one, the nation continues to maintain one of the highest credit ratings among its advanced economy peers, said Desjardins Group economists Randall Bartlett and LJ Valencia.

Ballooning debt since the pandemic has made investors increasingly nervous about government bonds, but among advanced nations Canada is seen as one of the “cleanest fiscal dirty shirts,” they said.

The IMF recently predicted that Canada’s general government deficit and gross debt would likely fall near the bottom of the G7.

But the area where Canada really shines is government net debt which subtracts financial assets from gross debt. That equation makes our debt the lowest in the group of nations.

What gives our country an edge is a well-managed social security system — the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans — which is a big contributor to a “globally impressive financial asset base,” said economists with the National Bank of Canada.

Over the past five years, over $1 trillion in market value has been added to that government asset base, making it second only to Norway’s as a share of gross domestic product.

On April 28, Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne will present the spring economic statement, one year after Mark Carney’s Liberal government came to power.

It has been 12 months of economic turmoil, as the country was rattled first by Donald’s Trump trade war and now by a global energy crisis sparked by the U.S., Israeli war on Iran.

Last November the federal budget estimated that spending on defence and infrastructure would push net debt-to-GDP ratio to 43 per cent, Bloomberg reports.

That still leaves Canada in a stronger financial position than other G7 countries, many of which carry net debt levels near or above 100 per cent of GDP.

Events have also worked in Ottawa’s favour since the November budget, said Desjardins.

Upward revisions to GDP and stronger economic growth this year make deficits and debt a smaller share of the economy, the measures rating agencies look at.

Canada’s reputation as the “cleanest dirty shirt” is reinforced by solid investor demand for government debt, said Bartlett and Valencia, but this isn’t something Ottawa should take for granted.

“While the federal fiscal forecast could be worse, the risks to the Government of Canada’s deficit and debt projections are largely to the downside,” said the economists.

The outcome for review of the Canada United States Mexico Agreement set for July 1 remains highly uncertain, with Desjardins expecting that the tariff regime probably won’t get much better and could get worse.

Bond yields are also climbing as the Iran war fuels inflation expectations and higher interest rates would further erode federal fortunes, they said.

“Keeping some fiscal powder dry for any future need would be wise.”

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It could have been worse.

That’s the reaction of many to Canada’s inflation numbers out Monday. A shock was expected, considering where the Iran war has been taking gas prices lately. Inflation did jump more than half a percentage point to 2.4 per cent in March, but fell short of the 2.6 per cent hike economists had been expecting. That’s despite gas prices surging 21 per cent in the month, the biggest increase on record.

Core measures important to the Bank of Canada , which decides on rates next week, were subdued, with one holding steady and the other easing slightly.

“Our considered view is that if it were not for the conflict with Iran, the discussion would currently be revolving around the strong possibility of BoC rate cuts, not hikes,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Today’s Data: United States retail sales, pending home sales
Earnings: General Electric Co., Northern Trust Corp., Equifax Inc., MSCI Inc., 3M Co. DR Horton Inc.

Create your own pension paycheque with some tips from Ted Rechtshaffen. The chief executive at TriDelta Private Wealth talks to FP Video about creating a tax-efficient financial plan for retirement. Watch it now

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McLister on mortgages

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com .

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Canada's inflation rate jumps to 2.4%, fuelled by gas price shock

Jane Switzer — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:51:12 +0000

Canada’s inflation rate accelerated to 2.4 per cent in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February, as gasoline prices spiked because of oil supply disruptions in the ongoing Iran war.

Gas prices rose more than 21 per cent in March from the month before — “the largest price increase for gasoline on record, due to the supply shock resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” Statistics Canada said Monday.

Overall, energy prices rose 3.9 per cent in March after falling 9.3 per cent in February.

Statistics Canada noted that gasoline prices in March 2025 still included the consumer carbon tax, which was removed in April 2025.

With that levy gone, “the impact of energy on inflation is set to get much larger in next month’s data,” said Leslie Preston, managing director and senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Preston said in a note that while oil prices have dropped in recent days, they are still almost 40 per cent higher than a year ago.

“That means energy prices are likely to keep headline inflation elevated for some time,” she said. “April’s inflation reading is likely to head much higher as the dampening effect of the removal of the consumer carbon levy falls out of the year-on-year inflation calculation.”

Excluding gasoline, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.2 per cent in March.

Prices for food purchased in stores rose 4.4 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent in February. Prices for fresh vegetables rose 7.8 per cent, the biggest increase since August 2023. Price growth for cucumbers, peppers and celery was also notable, the agency said, due in part to “tighter supplies related to adverse growing conditions in producing countries.”

Lingering effects of the end of GST/HST holiday last year slowed inflation on some goods. Prices for restaurant food increased 3.2 per cent in March, down from a 7.8 per cent pace in February. Prices for alcoholic beverages purchased from stores, as well as toys, games (excluding video games) and hobby supplies also grew at a slower pace.

Andrew Grantham, executive director and senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in a note that so far there is only a “limited sign” of higher gas prices passing through to other areas.

He said core inflation was “tamer than expected” in March, with four measures (CPI-trim, CPI-median, CPI-X and CPI excluding food and energy) averaging 1.4 per cent on a three-month annualized basis.

Economists expect higher gasoline prices will cause headline inflation to further accelerate to around three per cent in April.

Grantham said inflation will “hopefully” ease back slightly in May, partly due to the removal of the federal fuel excise tax that came into effect on Monday.

“Pass-through from higher energy prices into core measures of inflation may become more evident closer to the summer months, particularly as higher air fares are picked up more fully, but slack within the Canadian economy should prevent those measures from reaccelerating too much, enabling the Bank of Canada to remain on the sidelines through 2026,” Grantham said.

Latest inflation data reinforce rate cuts would be on the table if not for Iran, says economist

Gigi Suhanic — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:34:22 +0000

Markets are paring back their bets for a rate hike after the consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 2.4 per cent year over year in March from 1.8 per cent in February, mostly on higher gasoline prices.

Inflation came in lower than the 2.6 per cent economists were expecting despite gasoline prices jumping 21 per cent from February.

Bets for rate hikes in Canada rose when the United States and Israel initially attacked Iran on Feb. 28 to at least two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026 due to fears that inflation was headed for a post-pandemic repeat. However, bets have since receded and were wavering between one 25-basis-point hike this year and less than one hike.

Here’s what economists think the inflation data means for the Bank of Canada as it considers its next rate announcement on April 29.

‘Pain points’: BMO

“Core (inflation) was milder than expected, helping hold the overall inflation rate a bit below consensus expectations,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal , said in a note.

He said the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core CPI median and trim, respectively, held “steady” at 2.3 per cent year over year and slowed to 2.2 per cent. A measure of inflation that strips out food and energy was a bit less than two per cent.

But inflation boosters and subtractors were “lopsided,” Porter said.

The five biggest gainers fell victim to higher energy prices, including gasoline, travel tours, airfares, fuel oil and fuel for RVs. Drags on inflation included telephone services, auto insurance, furniture, candy and mortgage interest costs.

“Having said that, two of the pain points for consumers were not great, as grocery prices picked up a bit again,” he said.

Groceries accelerated to 4.4 per cent year over year from 4.1 per cent, while rent increased to 4.2 per cent from 3.9 per cent.

Porter expects inflation in April to jump above three per cent, with gasoline prices posting a seven per cent increase despite the elimination of the federal excise tax, which went into effect on Monday and is expected to shave 10 cents off per litre at the pumps. Also, the carbon tax was dropped last April and that will boost inflation.

“Our considered view is that if it were not for the conflict with Iran, the discussion would currently be revolving around the strong possibility of Bank of Canada rate cuts, not hikes,” he said. “This report reinforces that opinion.”

‘Light is green’: Rosenberg Research

“Tiff Macklem can hum and haw all he wants about his own personal inflation fears, but as the Bank of Canada fiddles, the economy burns ,” David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. , said in a note.

The CPI rose 0.9 per cent month over month, falling short of the average estimate of 1.1 per cent. Seasonally adjusted, he said inflation was “flat as an ice hockey surface” and has been for the past three months.

Key for Rosenberg is the traditional core inflation measure, which excludes food and energy. It came in at 1.9 per cent year over year, which is less than the Bank of Canada’s inflation target of two per cent.

Another key was decelerating housing inflation, which slowed “on a seasonally smoothed basis” to 0.7 per cent year over year — a 12-year low — from 3.8 per cent.

He said the economy is suffering from an output gap and a weak labour market that hasn’t produced any net full-time positions since mid-2025.

“The light is green for the Bank of Canada to resume its easing cycle once the U.S.-Iran war finally does end, and a red light has now been established for any policy tightening, which the bond market had recently and we believe mistakenly started to price in weeks ago,” he said.

‘Weighed down’: KPMG

“The echoes of the current commodity price squeeze are still yet to be felt,” Ali Jaffery, chief economist at KPMG Canada , said in a note. “The pass-through of higher commodity prices and further supply disruptions into core inflation will pick up over the coming months, although how much will depend on the intensity and duration of the current conflict.”

He said conditions were very different the last time Canada suffered a severe inflation spike, and they included supply chain snarls, a major boost to government spending and an oil shock from Russia’s war against Ukraine. That forced central banks to hike interest rates to cool inflation.

This time, oil prices are feeding into a sluggish Canadian economy that Jaffery said is being “weighed down” by U.S. tariffs and slowing population growth. Also, inflation is sitting “roughly” at the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target.

“In that context, our expectation is that the pass-through of higher commodity prices into underlying inflation in Canada will likely be modest, assuming the conflict winds down soon,” he said.

Jaffery expects businesses will absorb any cost increases due to energy prices to protect market share and that should help guard against rising inflation expectations, which the Bank of Canada will be on the lookout for.

He also doesn’t expect inflation to enter the range of four per cent to six per cent, which would push up businesses’ inflation expectations.

KPMG is looking for the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year, assuming the Middle East conflict winds down in the next few weeks.

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com