Fahad's Stock World

CNBC's Fast Money Crew

2010-09-22T21:27:00.000-07:00

With optionMonster / CNBC Fast Money crew at the ILAM Dallas event on Sept 10-11

Options Tactician

2010-08-05T18:53:00.000-07:00

Hello folks -

I am pleased to announce that I have joined forces with optionMONSTER to start a new service called "Options Tactician." Please follow this Link to start a free 14-day trial period.

The service will provide option trading ideas for traders looking to capitalize on event or catalyst driven opportunities as well as volatility mis-pricing in the marketplace. Those who are familiar with my trading style will quickly notice that I comprehensively review and discuss the following before committing capital in a trade:

- Under the radar, improving or deteriorating fundamentals
- Detail technical check on charts
- Collective wisdom (or foolishness) of analysts community
- Institutional interest from options order flow to gauge the sentiment

I will run the service as I manage my own personal portfolio. There will be an active live option model portfolio for all subscribers to see how positions are performing at any given time. As I have repeatedly said in the past, capital preservation always trumps aggression for profits. When I find a story that makes sense, my primary focus is on designing a strategy that provides the best risk/reward balance. Control your risk first. With proper homework, profits will come over time.

I make a lot of directional and range-bound bets, but more importantly I pay very close attention to changes in implied volatilities and option Greeks, which are key ingredients necessary to understand movements in options pricing relative to the underlying.

I am looking forward to having you join my subscription and working together to make money.

Fahad Khalid

optionMONSTER Event on June 25/26

2010-06-17T10:09:00.000-07:00

Hello folks. Quick note: I have been invited to attend optionMONSTER Invest Like a Monster Conference in Chicago on June 25 and 26. I plan on attending full session on both days, including Friday evening reception.

Please join in by registering on the following site: OM ILAM Registration. I hope to meet and chat with many of you there.

Analysts' Upgrades/Downgrades 5-12-10

2010-05-12T06:05:00.001-07:00

Anadarko Petroleum downgraded at Oppenheimer
APC was downgraded from Outperform to Perform, Oppenheimer said. Company has potential financial liabilities to the oil spill.

Walt Disney upgraded at Citigroup
DIS was upgraded from Sell to Hold, Citigroup said. $37 price target. Valuation call, following the strong quarter, driven by Studio results.

Huntington Bancshares upgraded at Morgan Stanley
HBAN was upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight, Morgan Stanley said. Company is highly leveraged to improving credit trends. $8.50 price target.

Harmonic resumed at BofA/Merrill
HLIT coverage resumed with a Neutral rating and $7 price target. HLIT announced Omneon deal in 1Q10, now focus on integration, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said.

McKesson upgraded at Goldman
MCK was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Goldman Sachs. Stock was also added to the Conviction List. Company has tailwinds, without significant exposure to Europe.

Marshall & Ilsley upgraded at Morgan Stanley
MI was upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight, Morgan Stanley said. $12 price target. Company has leverage to the credit market.

NewAlliance Bancshares downgraded at Morgan Stanley
NAL was downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight, Morgan Stanley said. Company has less leverage to improving credit trends.

Nalco upgraded at JP Morgan
NLC upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to $30 from $25. Maintains 2010 EPS estimates of $1.22.

Ruby Tuesday upgraded at Credit Suisse
RT upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as top-line trends continue to improve, Credit Suisse said. Price target increased a dollar to $14.

SVB Financial downgraded at Morgan Stanley
SIVB was downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight, Morgan Stanley said. $57 price target. Company has less exposure to the improving credit environment.

Constellation Brands upgraded at Deutsche
STZ was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. $23 price target. Domestic wine and beer business appears to be improving.

Tellabs upgraded at BofA/Merrill
TLAB upgraded to Neutral from Underperform on strong 1Q10 results, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Price target lifted from $7.15 to $10.

Assured Guarantee numbers cut at UBS

Shares of AGO now seen reaching $27, UBS said. Estimates also lowered, given lower production rates and tighter credit spreads. Buy rating.

Church & Dwight price target boosted at Barclays
CHD price target increased to $69 from $65. CHD gaining market share just as consumer demand begins to recover, Barclays said. Equal Weight rating.

Church & Dwight estimates, target cut at Goldman
Shares of CHD now seen reaching $70, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also lowered, given higher expected promotional spending. Neutral rating.

Cinemark estimates, target boosted at Morgan Stanley
Shares of CNK now seen reaching $15, according to Morgan Stanley. Estimates also upped, following the company's positive first-quarter results. Underweight rating.

Dicks Sporting Goods price target raised at Barclays
DKS price target jumped to $32 from $28. The supply and demand landscape is supporting near and long term growth, Barclays said. Overweight rating.

Electronic Arts estimates lowered at UBS
ERTS estimates were cut through 2012, UBS said. Compnay is seeing weaker demand for packaged goods in Europe. Buy rating and $23 price target.

Express Scripts target upped at Goldman
Shares of ESRX now seen reaching $124, Goldman Sachs said. Company can deliver superior earnings growth over the next couple of years. Buy rating.

Gamestop estimates reduced at Goldman
GME estimates were lowered through 2011, according to Goldman Sachs. Company will be hurt by recent currency changes. Neutral rating.

Home Depot target, estimates boosted at Barclays
HD price target increased to $39 from $34 ahead of 1Q10 results next Tuesday, Barclays said. 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates lifted to $1.83 and $2.24, respectively. Overweight rating.

Lowe's target, estimates raised at Barclays
LOW price target increased to $30 from $25 as Barclays expects good 1Q10 results next Monday. 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates set at $1.46 and $1.73, respectively.

Mattel estimates reduced at UBS
MAT estimates were lowered through 2011, according to UBS. Company is facing higher input costs and currency pressure. Buy rating and $30 price target.

Office Depot estimates reduced at Goldman
ODP estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company will be hurt by currency moves. Neutral rating.

ON Semiconductor estimates upped at Morgan Stanley
ONNN estimates were boosted through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company facing lower interest costs, after paying down debt. Underweight rating.

Pepsi added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman
PEP was added to the Conviction Buy list, Goldman Sachs said. Earnings growth should reaccelerate, even though the company faces currency pressure. Buy rating and $76 price target.

Progress Energy numbers raised at Morgan Stanley
Shares of PGN now seen reaching $42, according to Morgan Stanley. Estimates also increased, following a positive rate case in Florida. Equal-weight rating.

Philip Morris cut from Conviction Buy List at Goldman
PM was removed from the Conviction Buy list, Goldman Sachs said. Estimates also lowered, given recent currency moves. $59 price target.

Sunpower estimates, target cut at UBS
SPWRA estimates were reduced through 2011, according to UBS. Company guided to lower solar roof top sales. Neutral rating and new $17 price target.

TW Telecom estimates increased at Morgan Stanley
TWTC estimates were raised through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company posted record-low churn for the quarter and is seeing robust bookings activity. Equal-weight rating.

Housekeeping: Apple (AAPL)

2010-05-11T09:23:00.000-07:00

During that big whoosh down on Thursday, we took advantage of panic sell-off and bought May/July $260 call calendar for $8.50. With stock trading at $259 as of this writing. I am placing the following conditional order:

Buy to close May $260 calls and sell to open June $260 calls for 5 cents above the mark if and when the bid on AAPL stock is above $260 before May expiration during the normal market hours. If this order executes, I will communicate about the net credit received for doing this roll within the comment section below.

Good luck!

Market Digest Live 5-11-10

2010-05-11T06:04:00.001-07:00

Market Digest Live 5-11-10

Analysts Upgrades/Downgrades 5-11-10

2010-05-11T06:02:00.000-07:00

Baxter downgraded at Argus
BAX was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Argus Research said. Company is seeing lower sales in the BioScience segment.

Berry Petroleum initiated at JP Morgan
BRY initiated at JP Morgan. Initiated with an Overweight rating and $40.50 price target. Introduces 2010 EPS estimates of $4.96.

Cheesecake Factory upgraded at Baird
CAKE was upgraded from Neutral to Outperform, Robert Baird said. $32 price target. Company is seeing better sales and traffic trends.

Clearn Channel Outdoor upgraded at Piper Jaffray
CCO upgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating raised to Neutral from Underweight. Price target raised to $12 from $6. 2010 EPS estimates lowered to -$0.11 from -$0.04.

Dean Foods downgraded at UBS
DF was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, UBS said. $11 price target. Estimates also lowered, given pricing pressures in the milk market.

Electronic Arts upgraded at MKM
ERTS was upgraded from Sell to Neutral, MKM Partners said. Company is turning the business around and seeing better sales from ints new titles.

Legg Mason upgraded at BofA/Merrill
LM upgraded to Neutral from Underperform on cost savings, large buyback and better flows, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Price target maintained at $31.

Nektar Therapeutics downgraded at Barclays
NKTR downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation, Barclays said. Maintain $14 price target.

MetroPCS upgraded at Deutsche
PCS was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. $14 price target. New plans should drive subscriber growth.

Petsmart rated new Buy at Jefferies
PETM was initiated with a Buy rating, Jefferies said. $39 price target. Company should benefit from a resurgence in discretionary spending.

Primerica rated new Neutral at UBS
PRI was initiated with a Neutral rating, UBS said. $27 price target. Company can deliver double-digit earnings growth by 2012, but faces compliance issues.

Red Hat upgraded at Jefferies
RHT was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Jefferies said. $35 price target. Company is seeing a rebound in server shipments and better pricing.

SS&C Technologies rated new Buy at Deutsche
SSNC was initiated with a Buy rating, Deutsche Bank said. $19 price target. Industry trends are improving and organic growth could accelerate.

St Jude Medical upgraded at Piper Jaffray
STJ upgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Maintains $44 price target and 2010 EPS estimates of $2.84.

Talbots initiated at Barclays
TLB initiated with an Overweight rating and $23 price target. Sales are recovering broadly and the TLB story is just getting started, Barclays said.

Tyson Foods estimates increased at Morgan Stanley
TSN estimates were raised through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Protein market is improving and the company is seeing better operating efficiency. Equal-weight rating.

Tyson Foods downgraded at Credit Suisse
TSN downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Valuation call. Price target lowered to $21 from $23.

Apple estimates, target raised at Kaufman

Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $320, according to Kaufman Bros. Estimates also increased, given higher expected Mac and iPad sales. Buy rating.

Arena Resources estimates raised at UBS
ARNA estimates were increased through 2011, UBS said. Company is seeing an improvement in production. Buy rating and $40 price target.

BioMed Realty numbers boosted at Credit Suisse
BMR price target lifted by a dollar to $17 on solid 1Q10 earnings, Credit Suisse said. Estimates raised through 2012. Maintain Neutral rating.

Boyd Gaming estimates, target raised at Goldman
Shares of BYD now seen reaching $12, according to Goldman Sachs said. Estimates also increased, as the company is seeing better results in Las Vegas. Neutral rating.

Chesapeake Energy estimates lowered at Goldman
CHK estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Asset sales and higher share count will hurt profits. Neutral rating and $30 price target.

Coach estimates lowered at Goldman
COH estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company has exposure to the lower Yen. Neutral rating.

Discovery Communications target upped at Morgan Stanley
DISCA target was boosted to $42, Morgan Stanley said. Company can deliver organic growth and is buying back stock. Equal-weight rating and $42 price target.

Dish Network estimates boosted at Goldman
DISH estimates were upped through 2012, according to Goldman Sachs. Company is seeing higher subscriber growth. Sell rating and $18 price target.

Fluor estimates reduced at UBS
FLR estimates were cut through 2011, UBS said. Company reported a lower backlog this quarter. Buy rating and $60 price target.

Fluor target, estimates tweaked at Barclays
FLR price target lowered a dollar to $58 on mixed 1Q10 results, Barclays said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates trimmed to $2.85 and $3.20, respectively.

FMC estimates, target upped at UBS
FMC estimates were boosted through 2011, UBS said. Soda Ash market is gaining momentum. Buy rating and new $73 price target.

Quicksilver Resources estimates increased at UBS
KWK estimates were raised through 2011, UBS said. Company is realizing higher prices and spending less on CapEx. Buy rating and $16 price target.

Legg Mason target, estimates higher at Citi
LM price target increased to $33.50 from $29.50 to reflect cost-reductions and share repurchases, Citigroup said. Estimates lifted through 2012. Maintain Hold rating.

Legg Mason estimates increased at FBR
LM estimates were raised through 2012, FBR Capital Markets said. Buybacks should offset restructuring costs. Market Perform rating and $33 price target.

K12 price target higher at Credit Suisse
LRN price target raised by a dollar to $21 on strong 3Q10 results, Credit Suisse said. Estimates increased through 2012. Maintain Neutral rating.

Marathon Oil estimate raised at Barclays
MRO 2010 EPS estimates jumped to $3.10, 2011 held at $4.30. Oil discovered in the Flying Dutchman area, Barclays said. Maintain Equal Weight rating and $34 price target.

Nuance Communications numbers boosted at FBR
Shares of NUAN now seen reaching $21, according to FBR Capital Markets. Estimates also upped, as the company is posting double-digit organic growth. Outperform rating.

Priceline.com price target cut at BofA/Merrill
PCLN price target lowered to $270 from $300 on mixed 1Q10 results, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Estimates lowered through 2011. Reiterate Buy rating.

Priceline.com numbers lowered at Goldman
Shares of PCLN now seen reaching $260, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also cut, given the weaker Euro and travel delays from the volcanic ash. Neutral rating.

Philip Morris estimates lowered at Morgan Stanley
PM estimates were reduced through 2012, according to Morgan Stanley. Company has significant exposure to Europe. Overweight rating and $57 price target.

Ralph Lauren numbers cut at Goldman
Shares of RL now seen reaching $101, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also reduced, given the company's currency exposure in Europe. Buy rating.

Charles Schwab estimates reduced at Morgan Stanley
SCHW estimates were cut through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Rate hikes will likely came later than expected. Overweight rating and $21 price target.

Scripps Networks target raised at Morgan Stanley
Shares of SNI now seen reaching $52, according to Morgan Stanley. Company is seeing better rating and should benefit from an advertising recovery. Equal-weight rating.

Tiffany estimates, target reduced at Goldman
TIF estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company has heavy exposure to Asia and Europe. Neutral rating and new $52 price target.

TJX Companies estimates lowered at Goldman
TJX estimates were reduced through 2012, according to Goldman Sachs. Company is being hurt by the weaker Pound and Euro. Buy rating.

Wal-Mart estimates cut at Goldman
WMT estimates were reduced through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company seeing impact from the weaker Pound and Yen. Buy rating.

Watson Pharmaceuticals estimates boosted at UBS
WPI estimates were upped through 2011, according to UBS. Company has a strong pipeline on both sides of the business. Neutral rating and $43 price target.

Market Digest Live 5-10-10

2010-05-10T06:18:00.001-07:00

Market Digest Live 5-10-10

Market Digest 5-10-10

2010-05-10T06:11:00.001-07:00

American Axle & Mfg downgraded at Barclays
7:50 AM EDT

AXL downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight and price target lowered to $11 from $13. Investors are likely to favor suppliers with less leverage and stronger organic growth prospects, Barclays said.

Boeing upgraded at Goldman
8:12 AM EDT

BA was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Goldman Sachs said. Company was also added to the Conviction List, given continued expected growth in the aerospace sector. Estimates also boosted, as the company should see higher margins. $90 price target.

BigBand Networks downgraded at BofA/Merrill
8:31 AM EDT

BBND downgraded to Underperform from Buy due to order delays, pricing pressures and uncertain value creation path, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Price target cut to $3. Estimates cut through 2012.

BorgWarner upgraded at Barclays
7:49 AM EDT

BWA upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight on valuation, Barclays said. Price target held at $48.

Carefusion upgraded at Susquehanna
7:27 AM EDT

CFN was upgraded to Positive, Susquehanna Finanical said. $33 price target. Last quarter likely marked a floor in the company's earnings.

Cemex upgraded at Credit Suisse
8:18 AM EDT

CX upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as U.S. construction market is turning the page, Credit Suisse said. Price target jumped to $15 from $10.

DirecTV Group upgraded at BofA/Merrill
8:35 AM EDT

DTV upgraded to Buy from Neutral and price target boosted to $43 from $38. No fighting the momentum of a strong balance sheet being put to work, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said.

Devon Energy upgraded at Argus
8:42 AM EDT

DVN was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Argus Research said. $76 price target. Company has raised a lot of cash through its asset sales, which should be re-deployed in a positive way.

El Paso upgraded at Morgan Stanley
8:01 AM EDT

EP was upgraded to Overweight, Morgan Stanley said. $15 price target. Company has closed its funding gap and management should improve execution over the coming quarters.

Fortress upgraded at Goldman
8:10 AM EDT

FIG was upgraded to Buy, Goldman Sachs said. $7.50 price target. Organic growth is improving.

General Dynamics downgraded at Goldman
8:26 AM EDT

GD was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, Goldman Sachs said. Valuation call, based on an $87 price target.

Genworth Financial upgraded at BofA/Merrill
8:30 AM EDT

GNW upgraded to Buy from Neutral on earnings momentum and valuation, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. $20 price target. Estimates raised through 2011.

KAR Auction downgraded at Goldman
8:19 AM EDT

KAR was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, Goldman Sachs said. Valuation call, based on a $17 price target.

Liberty Interactive downgraded at BofA/Merrill
8:41 AM EDT

LINTA downgraded to Neutral from Buy on contagion concerns, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Price target cut to $16 from $18.

Moodys downgraded at Piper Jaffray
8:11 AM EDT

MCO downgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating lowered to Neutral from Overweight. Price target lowered to $30 from $38. Maintains 2010 EPS estimates of $1.87.

Meru Networks initiated at BofA/Merrill
8:41 AM EDT

MERU coverage initiated with a Buy rating and $20 price target. Unique offering in a growth market, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said.

Nike upgraded at Sterne Agee
8:43 AM EDT

NKE was upgraded to Buy, Sterne Agee said. $85 price target. Evolution in designs should drive further growth.

Northern Trust upgraded at Goldman
8:09 AM EDT

NTRS was upgraded to Buy, Goldman Sachs said. Company should benefit from higher currency volumes. $59 price target.

Nu Skin upgraded at Stifel
8:46 AM EDT

NUS was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Stifel Nicolaus said. $32 price target. Pullback has created an attractive entry point.

OfficeMax upgraded at Goldman
8:13 AM EDT

OMX was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Goldman Sachs said. $22 price target. Visibility is improving, along with the employment data.

PNC Financial upgraded at Stifel
8:45 AM EDT

PNC was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Stifel Nicolaus said. Valuation call, based on an $85 price target.

Rackspace cut from Conviction Buy List at Goldman
8:33 AM EDT

RAX was removed from the Conviction Buy list, Goldman Sachs said. Company lacks near-term catalysts, and the stock is already up 75% over the past 12 months.

Rackspace downgraded at ThinkEquity
7:29 AM EDT

RAX was downgraded from Buy to Hold, ThinkEquity said. Company could face margin headwinds.

Rue21 initiated at Credit Suisse
8:17 AM EDT

RUE coverage initiated at Credit Suisse with an Outperform rating and $41 price target. One of the great remaining retail stories, analysts said.

Sapient upgraded at Piper Jaffray
8:12 AM EDT

SAPE upgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating raised to Neutral from Underweight. Price target raised to $9 from $7. 2010 EPS estimates lowered to $0.33 from $0.34.

Stifel Financial upgraded at KBW
7:31 AM EDT

SF was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said. Recent pullback has created a buying opportunity. $64 price target.

SS&C Technologies initiated Credit Suisse
8:17 AM EDT

SSNC initiated with an Outperform rating and $19 price target, Well positioned to capitalize on the recovery in the financial services market, Credit Suisse said.

SS&C Technologies initiated at JP Morgan
8:09 AM EDT

SSNC initiated at JP Morgan. Introduces Overweight rating and $19 price target. Introduces 2010 EPS estimates of $0.83.

SS&C Technologies rated new Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
8:07 AM EDT

SSNC was initiated with an Equal-weight rating, Morgan Stanley said. Stock has already performed well following its IPO, but the company has an attractive recurring revenue model.

Thor Industries upgraded at Baird
7:20 AM EDT

THO was upgraded from Neutral to Outperform, Robert Baird said. $40 price target. Company had a strong quarter, has low inventory and seeing more robust orders.

Time Warner upgraded at UBS
7:48 AM EDT

TWC was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, UBS said. $57 price target. Improvements in the economy and competitive environment should help the company drive growth.

US Bancorp upgraded at Stifel
8:44 AM EDT

USB was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Stifel Nicolaus said. $34 price target. Pullback has created an attractive buying opportunity.

inVentive Health downgraded at Barclays
7:48 AM EDT

VTIV downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight as the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by Thomas H. Lee for $26 a share, Barclays said. Price target held at $26.

Yahoo upgraded at Susquehanna
7:26 AM EDT

YHOO was upgraded to Positive, Susquehanna Financial said. $19 price target. Valuation call, as the market is underestimating the MSFT deal and the company's Chinese assets.

Ameristar Casinos numbers cut at Goldman

8:20 AM EDT

ASCA estimates were lowered through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing lower sales and margins across the board. Neutral rating and new $18 price target.

Cisco Systems estimates raised at Morgan Stanley
8:05 AM EDT

CSCO estimates were increased through 2012, according to Morgan Stanley. Company is likely to beat expectations this week and boost guidance. Equal-weight rating.

Cisco Systems estimates upped at UBS
7:56 AM EDT

CSCO estimates were boosted through 2011, UBS said. Lead times are coming down and Tandberg should have a bigger impact on results. Neutral rating and $28 price target.

Cablevision estimates, target boosted at Goldman
8:17 AM EDT

Shares of CVC now seen reaching $24, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also upped, given better video growth trends. Neutral rating.

Gaylord Entertainment numbers raised at FBR
7:38 AM EDT

Shares of GET now seen reaching $32, according to FBR Capital Markets. Estimates also increased, given improving trends outside of the damage to Opryland. Outperform rating.

Goodrich cut from Conviction Buy List at Goldman
8:27 AM EDT

GR was removed from the Conviction Buy list, Goldman Sachs said. Stock has been flat versus the market, but estimates remain ahead of consensus expectations. $90 price target.

Level 3 estimates lowered at Goldman
8:31 AM EDT

LVLT estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is facing pricing and currency pressures. Sell rating and $0.80 price target.

Madison Square Garden estimates increased at UBS
7:50 AM EDT

MSG estimates were raised through 2011, UBS said. Company is seeing strong affiliate fees and lower player costs. Neutral rating and $22 price target.

Ralcorp estimates, target reduced at UBS
7:52 AM EDT

Shares of RAH now seen reaching $68, according to UBS. Estimates also lowered, given higher expected promotional spending. Neutral rating.

Sandridge estimates, target reduced at Goldman
8:22 AM EDT

Shares of SD now seen reaching $8, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also lowered, given lower production rates and higher expected costs. Neutral rating.

Staples estimates lowered at UBS
7:49 AM EDT

SPLS estimates were cut through 2012, UBS said. Company has currency exposure from Europe. Neutral rating and $26.25 price target.

SolarWinds added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman
8:15 AM EDT

SWI was added to the Conviction Buy list, Goldman Sachs said. Stock has pulled back, though commercial demand remains strong. $28 price target.

Textron estimates increased at Morgan Stanley
8:03 AM EDT

TXT estimates were raised through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company is seeing better industrial demand. Overweight rating and $30 price target.

Warner Chilcott estimates lowered at Goldman
8:25 AM EDT

WCRX estimates were cut through 2013, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing lower sales across the board. Neutral rating and $26 price target.

Cimarex Energy numbers boosted at UBS
7:53 AM EDT

Shares of XEC now seen reaching $70, UBS said. Estimates also upped, as the company is seeing a higher mix of liquids and lower costs. Buy rating.

Dennis Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading

2010-05-07T13:35:00.000-07:00

For weekend reading, on the request of one reader, I am starting this thread so anyone who likes to share their trading rules and principles can contribute. To start off, I will throw in my 5-10-20 rule that many of you are already aware of. If not, follow this link: 5-10-20 Rule for Bull Put Spreads

Additionally, I am listing here Gartman's 22 Rules of Trading. Please feel free to provide and share any rule for trading that you personally strictly follow in the comment section below.

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

Market Digest Live 5-7-10

2010-05-07T06:05:00.000-07:00

Market Digest Live 5-7-10

Market Digest 5-7-10

2010-05-07T06:01:00.000-07:00

Adobe Systems rated new Buy at ThinkEquity
ADBE was initiated with a Buy rating, ThinkEquity said. Company should benefit from ongoing shift toward Internet-based multimedia and advertising.

Autodesk upgraded at ThinkEquity
ADSK was upgraded from Hold to Buy, ThinkEquity said. New analyst believes that the company should remain the scale leader in design software.

Adtran upgraded at UBS
ADTN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, UBS said. $31 price target. Stock looks attractive, following a recent pullback. Company has little European exposure and should benefit from U.S. stimulus spending.

ArvinMeritor initiated at Citi
ARM initiated with a Buy rating and $20 price target. Credible margin story & multiple upside, Citigroup said.

Brookfield Asset Management upgraded at Credit Suisse
BAM upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on improved valuation and several business opportunities, Credit Suisse said. Price target jumped to $32 from $26.

Compass Minerals downgraded at JP Morgan
CMP downgraded at JP Morgan. Rating lowered to Neutral from Overweight. Maintains $76 price target. 2010 EPS estimates lowered to $5.40 from $5.90.

Danaher upgraded at JP Morgan
DHR upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $94 from $83. 2010 EPS estimates raised to $4.40 from $4.20.

Fuel Systems Solutions downgraded at Thomas Weisel
FSYS downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight on near-term demand uncertainty, Thomas Weisel said. Price target lowered to $28 from $35.

Randgold Resources downgraded at Thomas Weisel
GOLD downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight on relative valuation and weak 1Q10 results, Thomas Weisel said. Maintain $95 price target.

Hubbell upgraded at JP Morgan
HUB.B upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Price target raised to $55 from $50. Maintains 2010 EPS estimates at $3.15.

Lamar Advertising upgraded at Oppenheimer
LAMR was upgraded from Perform to Outperform, Oppenheimer said. Company had a strong quarter and earnings growth should pick up in the second half of the year. $44 price target.

Leap Wireless International downgraded at Citi
LEAP downgraded to Hold fom Buy as near-term catalysts are fading, Citigroup said. Price target lowered to $20 from $24.

Leap Wireless downgraded at Citigroup
LEAP was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Citigroup said. Stock was also cut from the Top Picks Live list. $20 price target. Company lacks materially catalysts over the next few months.

Life Time Fitness upgraded at Oppenheimer
LTM was upgraded from Perform to Outperform, Oppenheimer said. $46 price target. Membership growth should accelerate, as economic pressures ease.

Las Vegas Sands upgraded at UBS
LVS was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, UBS said. $28 price target. Estimates also raised, given a higher outlook for Singapore.

Lawson Software downgraded at Piper Jaffray
LWSN downgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating lowered to Neutral from Overweight. Maintains $7.75 price target. Raises 2010 EPS estimates from $0.40 from $0.41.

Ormat Technologies downgraded at Citi
ORA downgraded to Sell from Hold on weak EPS and limited capacity, Citigroup said. Price target cut to $22 from $36.

Priceline.com upgraded at ThinkEquity
PCLN was upgraded from Hold to Buy, ThinkEquity said. New analyst likes the company's market leadership in Europe.

Pepco upgraded at Suntrust
POM was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Suntrust, Robinson Humphrey said. $18 price target. Company should see rate base growth.

Sanderson Farms upgraded at JP Morgan
Sanderson Farms upgraded at JP Morgan. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Maintains $65 price target. 2010 EPS estimates raised to $5.37 from $4.81.

SenoRx downgraded at Citi
SENO downgraded to hold from Buy based on BCR acquisition, Citigroup said. Price target raised by a dollar to $11.

Southern Company upgraded at Morgan Stanley
SO was upgraded to Equal-weight, Morgan Stanley said. $35 price target. Company should see higher usage and rate base growth.

Teradata upgraded at Merriman
TDC was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Merriman, Curhan Ford Company is well positioned for the next several quarters.

Teradata estimates upped at Morgan Stanley
TDC estimates were boosted through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company had strong emerging-markets growth and deferred revenue is rising. Equal-weight rating.

Alliant Techsystems estimates, target reduced at FBR

Shares of ATK now seen reaching $105, according to FBR Capital Markets. Estimates also cut, given lower expected sales volume. Outperform rating.

Activision Blizzard estimates cut at Morgan Stanley
ATVI estimates were lowered through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Have limited visibility for Call of Duty sales. Overweight rating.

Cinemark target, estimates higher at Barclays
CNK price target jumped to $20 from $17 on 1Q10 earnings beat, Barclays said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lifted to $1.14 and $1.23 respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

DirecTV estimates, target raised at Morgan Stanley
Shares of DTV now seen reaching $42, according to Morgan Stanley said. Estimates also increased, given the company strong results and buyback program. Overweight rating.

Exterran price target boosted at Credit Suisse
EXH price target jumped to $30 from $24 on strong 1Q10 results, Credit Suisse said. Reiterate Neutral rating.

Hyatt Hotels numbers increased at FBR
H estimates were raised through 2011, FBR Capital Markets said. Company is seeing better results, especially overseas. Underperform rating and $38 price target.

Hansen Natural estimates lowered at UBS
HANS estimates were cut through 2011, UBS said. Company had a weak quarter as customers worked down inventory. Buy rating and $50 price target.

Lear target, estimates raised at Credit Suisse
LEA price target increased to $91 from $82 on strong first quarter and guidance, Credit Suisse said. Estimates raised through 2012. Maintain Outperform rating.

Level 3 Communications estimates cut at Morgan Stanley
LVLT estimates were reduced through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company is seeing margin pressure, driven by weaker sales. Underweight rating.

Mercadolibre estimates boosted at Morgan Stanley
MELI estimates were upped through 2012, according to Morgan Stanley. Company is keeping a lid on costs and leveraging its marketing spending. Equal-weight rating.

MGM Mirage estimates lowered at UBS
MGM estimates were cut through 2011, UBS said. Company not likely to see a turnaround until the convention business picks up. Neutral rating and $14 price target.

Mohawk Industries numbers upped at Goldman
MHK estimates were boosted through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing better pricing and margin assumptions. Sell rating and new $55 price target.

Precision Castparts estimates reduced at Goldman
PCP estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company likely to see lower pipe sales and weaker margins. Buy rating.

Transocean estimates, target reduced at Goldman
RIG estimates were cut through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing higher costs, including the loss of the Deepwater Horizon. Buy rating and new $105 price target.

Solera estimates, target boosted at Goldman
Shares of SLH now seen reaching $41, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also upped, as the company is seeing better organic growth and margins. Neutral rating.

Scripps Networks estimates raised at Goldman
SNI estimates were increased through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing a higher ad revenue base and lower non-programming expenses. Neutral rating and $45 price target.

Schweitzer-Manduit numbers boosted at Goldman
Shares of SWM now seen reaching $53, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also upped, given the new supply agreement in Europe. Neutral rating.

Wisconsin Energy numbers increased at Morgan Stanley
WEC estimates were raised through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company should deliver higher earnings at its coal and gas plants. Overweight rating and new $55 price target.

Weight Watchers estimates raised at Citigroup
WTW estimates were increased through 2012, according to Citigroup. Company is seeing better attendance rates. Hold rating and $30 price target.

Housekeeping: GLD

2010-05-06T12:29:00.000-07:00

Quick note: I am closing the remaining half position in GLD for $2.35 debit. I am completely out of gold now.

Adding Several New Positions

2010-05-06T12:01:00.000-07:00

Keeping this short as I am buying in panic and everyone is selling in panic.

JPM - Selling May 35/39 bull put spread for $0.80 net credit

AAPL - Buying May/July $260 call calendar for $8.50 net debit

GE - Buying Sept 17/20 call spread for $1.20 net debit

I am going to put this on bold capital letters:

START BUYING WITH BOTH HANDS!!!!!!

Earnings Play: Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

2010-05-06T11:33:00.000-07:00

LVS is trading down 9.3% at $21.20 ahead of earnings tonight. The sell-off is brutal today, but I am taking advantage of sharply elevated volatility and selling the following bull put spread ahead of earnings:

- Buy to open May $17 puts
- Sell to open May $18 puts

Just filled the order for $0.20 net credit. The stock will have to fall another 15% by May expiration before the bull put spread gets in-the-money.

Good luck!

Housekeeping: AAPL, GLD and IWM

2010-05-06T10:09:00.000-07:00

I am making several changes here, so putting them all under one housekeeping note.

AAPL - We have held a bearish position in Apple for past two weeks by virtue of May/June $230 put calendar and May/July $250 call calendar. Both spreads have expanded nicely as the stock is trading at $253 as of this writing. While there may still be some downside left in the short-term, but long term Apple is still in up trend.

I am closing both calendar completely and taking profits. May/July $250 call calendar for $3.80 debit and May/June $230 put calendar for $3.50 debit.

The next step is to start a new May/July $270 calendar as I mentioned in the past to bet on a rebound, but I am not yet ready to pull the trigger yet. Let the dust settle first.

GLD - Well before anyone saw the upcoming spike in gold, we got into June 114/118 call spread for $1.32. The spread has expanded to $2.10 as of this writing as GLD is trading up at $116.90. I am closing half position and booking 59% profit.

IWM - Over a month ago, we noticed S&P 500 hitting against 61% fib retracement at 1230. That also corresponded with end of tax filing season, meaning the last batch of IRA contribution was coming to an end. We followed through and held our bearish hedge through May 68/63 put spread which was purchased for $1.40. I am making the following adjustment to the trade:

- Buy to close 1x May $63 puts for $0.41 debit

- Buy to open 1x May $62 puts for $0.33 debit
- Sell to open 2x May $65 puts for $0.65 credit

The whole adjustment will release $0.56 net credit and it converts our existing position into bearish May 62/65/68 put butterfly at average cost of $0.84. The reason why I am doing this adjustment is to partially cash out from the trade and still continue to have a hedge in place.

Good luck!

Market Digest Live 5-6-10

2010-05-06T05:53:00.001-07:00

Market Digest Live 5-6-10

Market Digest 5-6-10

2010-05-06T05:50:00.000-07:00

ADC Telecom upgraded at UBS
ADCT was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, UBS said. $10.50 price target. Estimates also boosted, as the company has sales drivers and continues to cut costs.

Actuant upgraded at Wells
ATU was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform, Wells Fargo said. Company is seeing improving trends in both Industrial and Energy segments.

Franklin Resources rated new Buy at UBS
Coverage of BEN was started with a Buy rating, UBS said. $136 price target. Company is positioned well to grow under most market conditions.

Blackrock rated new Buy at UBS
BLK was initiated with a Buy rating, UBS said. $210 price target. Company has a premier brand and should benefit from cyclical growth trends in the industry.

BorgWarner upgraded at Deutsche
BWA was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. Stock has pulled back from its recent highs, even though the company had a good quarter.

Centerpoint Energy downgraded at Jefferies
CNP was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Jefferies said. Valuation call, based on a $15.50 price target.

Centerpoint Energy upgraded at BMO
CNP was upgraded to Outperform, BMO Capital Markets said. $17 price target. Have increased confidence in the company's ability to grow earnings.

Cooper Tire upgraded at Deutsche
CTB was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. Company can continue to grow, even if Europe slows down.

Fastenal initiated at Credit Suisse
FAST, a leading North American industrial supplier, initiated with a Neutral rating and $63 price target. Premier growth play within industrial distribution, Barclays said.

Corning rated new Buy at Sterne Agee
GLW was initiated with a Buy rating, Sterne Agee said. $24 price target. Gross margins should continue to rebound.

Healthsouth downgraded at Wells
HLS was downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform, Wells Fargo said. Valuation call, as the stock is up 64% since June 2009.

Johnson Controls upgraded at Deutsche
JCI was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. Estimates also boosted, given the company's strong operating momentum.

Juniper Networks rated new Hold at ThinkEquity
JNPR was initiated with a Hold rating, ThinkEquity said. Valuation call. Company can gain market share, despite operating in a competitive environment.

Meredith initiated at Credit Suisse
MDP coverage initiated at Credit Suisse with a Neutral rating and $38 price target. MDP poised to return to growth in 2011, analysts said.

Meritage Homes upgraded at Citi
MTH upgraded to Buy from Hold and price target raised a dollar to $27. Valuation with a catalyst call, Citigroup said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates jumped to $0.62 and $1.55, respectively.

Micron Technology rated new Buy at Sterne Agee
MU was initiated with a Buy rating, Sterne Agee said. $13 price target. DDR3 gives the company an advantage over the competition in Taiwan.

Newfield Exploration initiated at Citi
NFX initiated with a Buy rating and $66 price target. Newfield is well positioned to post over 10% production growth over at least the next three years, Citigroup said.

Old Dominion Freight upgraded at Piper Jaffray
ODFL upgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating raised to Overweight from Underweight. Price target raised to $43 from $32. Maintains 2010 EPS estimates of $1.47.

Sirona Dental Systems upgraded at Credit Suisse
SIRO upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as yesterday's selloff in reaction to 2Q10 earnings was unwarranted. Product cycle still has legs, Credit Suisse said. Price target increased to $45 from $38.

Sandisk rated new Buy at Sterne Agee
Coverage of SNDK was started with a Buy rating, Sterne Agee said. $50 price target. Company has multiple positive tailwinds.

Schweitzer-Manduit downgraded at Oppenheimer
SWM was downgraded from Outperform to Perform, Oppenheimer said. Stock is up 33% since late March.

Titanium Metals upgraded at Longbow
TIE was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Longbow Research said. $20 price target. Titanium market is benefiting from the cyclical upturn in commercial aerospace.

T. Rowe Price rated new Neutral at UBS
TROW was initiated with a Neutral rating, UBS said. $62 price target. Company has less exposure in indexes, ETFs and alternative investments.

TRW Automotive upgraded at Deutsche
TRW was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. Company had a strong quarter and 2011 estimates were materially increased.

Westar Energy downgraded at Morgan Stanley
WR was downgraded to Equal-weight, Morgan Stanley said. Valuation call, based on a $23.75 price target.

Weyerhaeuser upgraded at Argus
WY was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Argus Research said. $59 price target. Company is about to turn profitable, following two years of losses.

Atlas Air estimates upped at Goldman

AAWW estimates were boosted through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing higher interest income. Neutral rating and $64 price target.

Alliance Data Systems price target lifted at Barclays
ADS price target improved to $85 from $82 after meeting with ADS' CFO confirmed their ability to achieve earnings, Barclays said. Reiterate Overweight rating.

Allegheny Energy target, estimates cut at Barclays
AYE price target reduced to $23 from $25 on lower than expected earnings, Barclays said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates sunk to $2.05 and $2.10, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.

BMC Software estimates lowered at Goldman
BMC estimates were cut through 2012, according to Goldman Sachs. Company is seeing lower sales. Neutral rating and $43 price target.

CBS estimates, target boosted at Goldman
Shares of CBS now seen reaching $14.50, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also upped, as the company is seeing better network trends. Neutral rating.

Cisco Systems target boosted at Credit Suisse
CSCO price target improved to $35 from $32 on expectations of a strong 3Q10, Credit Suisse said. Ongoing improvement in enterprise network trends. Outperform rating,

DigitalGlobe target, estimates higher at Citi
DGI price target lifted to $29 from $26 as 1Q10 results were ahead of expectations, Citigroup said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates increased to $0.53 and $1.24, respectively. Maintain Hold rating.

Devon Energy target higher, estimates changed at Barclays
DVN price target increased to $77 from $74 as it plans to repurchase up to $3.5 billion of shares, Barclays said. 2010 EPS estimate trimmed to $5.20, 2011 raised to $4.00. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

Devon Energy estimates raised at Morgan Stanley
DVN estimates were increased through 2011, according to Morgan Stanley. Company is seeing higher production rates and keeping costs in check. Equal-weight rating.

Education Management numbers increased at Goldman
EDMC estimates were raised through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing strong enrollment rates and has operating leverage. Neutral rating and new $23 price target.

Exelon estimates, target reduced at Goldman
EXC estimates were cut through 2014, Goldman Sachs said. Incremental hedging is cutting into profits. Neutral rating and new $45 price target.

Expeditors International price target boosted at Citi
EXPD price target jumped from $38 to $48 on strong 1Q10 results, Citigroup said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates raised to $1.25 and $1.45, respectively. Maintain Buy rating.

Expeditors International numbers raised at UBS
Shares of EXPD now seen reaching $47, according to UBS. Estimates also increased, as the company is seeing higher freight volumes. Buy rating.

Foster Wheeler target, estimates trimmed at Barclays
FWLT price target lowered by a dollar to $37 on mixed 1Q10 results and higher near-term risk, Barclays said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lowered to $2.20 and $2.40, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.

Intercontinental Exchange numbers boosted at UBS
Shares of ICE now seen reaching $143, according to UBS. Estimates also upped, as the company is seeing record volume and commission levels. Buy rating.

King Pharmaceuticals numbers cut at Goldman
KG estimates were reduced through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing lower sales and also lacks catalysts. Sell rating and new $9.50 price target.

Microchip Technology estimates increased at Morgan Stanley
MCHP estimates were raised through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company boosted guidance, but the SST purchase does add an overhang to the stock. Equal-weight rating.

Murphy Oil estimates lowered at UBS
MUR estimates were cut through 2011, UBS said. Company is being hurt by currency rates. Neutral rating and $58 price target.

ON Semiconductor estimates raised at Morgan Stanley
ONNN estimates were increased through 2012, according to Morgan Stanley. Company boosted guidance and should continue to grow its gross margin. Underweight rating.

Pulte Homes estimates, target increased at UBS
PHM estimates were raised through 2011, UBS said. Company should benefit as the market stabilizes. Sell rating and new $9 price target.

Prudential Financial target, estimates higher at Barclays
PRU price target increased to $57 from $53 as the company reported another quarter of very strong operations, Barclays said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lifted to $5.81 and $6.60, respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

Pioneer Natural estimates boosted at Morgan Stanley
PXD estimates were upped through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company is seeing ramping production growth. Equal-weight rating.

Qwest target increased at FBR
Shares of Q now seen reaching $5.75, FBR Capital Markets said. Company is seeing higher enterprise sales and continues to control costs. Market Perform rating.

Quest Software estimates increased at Goldman
QSFT estimates were raised through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing a lower tax rate and is expected to buy back more stock. Sell rating and $16.50 price target.

SBA Communications estimates lowered at Morgan Stanley
SBAC estimates were cut through 2011, according to Morgan Stanley. Domestic site leasing business could slow. Equal-weight rating.

Southern Company numbers raised at Goldman
Shares of SO now seen reaching $34, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also increased, given the company's new guidance. Neutral rating.

SPX Corp. estimates, target boosted at FBR
Shares of SPW now seen reaching $68, according to FBR Capital Markets. Estimates also upped, as the company is seeing better Test & Measurement results. Market Perform rating.

Symantec estimates reduced at FBR
SYMC estimates were lowered through 2011, according to FBR Capital Markets. Company faces currency headwinds and faces dilution following its recent acquisitions. Outperform rating and $20 price target.

Symantec estimates upped at Morgan Stanley
SYMC estimates were boosted through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company is seeing sales growth across the board. Equal-weight rating and $20 price target.

Tenet Healthcare estimates increased at Morgan Stanley
THC estimates were raised through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Cost-cutting is offsetting lower admission levels. Underweight rating.

Time Warner estimates boosted at BofA/Merrill
TWX 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates inflated to $2.21 and $2.57, respectively, on a solid start to 2010, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Reiterate Neutral rating and $34 price target.

Time Warner numbers raised at Goldman
Shares of TWX now seen reaching $36, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also increased, given higher results in advertising, cable networks and publishing. Buy rating.

Time Warner price target increased at Barclays
TWX price target raised to $32 from $30, Barclays said. Reiterate Equal Weight rating.

Vale estimates upped at Morgan Stanley
VALE estimates were boosted through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Company is seeing higher prices in the ferrous division. Overweight rating and $38 price target.

Out of Pocket Tomorrow

2010-05-04T13:31:00.000-07:00

Hope everyone enjoyed the live coverage. Chat replay will remain available just like yesterday's. Please note that tomorrow I am closing on a real estate deal in the morning and have an important business meeting in the afternoon. I will be out of pocket for most of the day, but will return to full coverage on Thursday.

Have a great evening!!

Housekeeping: Salesforce.com (CRM)

2010-05-04T12:38:00.000-07:00

On April 13, we initiated a new bullish position on CRM by buying Aug/May $85 calendar spread for $2.90. The spread has now expanded to $4.70 as CRM continues to trade sideways around $85. I am making the following adjustment:

- Buy to close May $85 calls for $4.30
- Sell to open June $90 calls for $3.80

The roll can be done for $0.50 net debit. This stock has 1.95 beta. Given 3% sell-off in broader markets, I expected much larger decline in shares, but I am amazed how well the stock is holding down only 1.4% as of this writing. By doing this roll, we now have Aug/June 85/90 call spread at average cost of $3.40. Currently, the spread is going for $5.30, so we have built-in gains of 56%. Earnings are expected on 5/17 (not confirmed).

Attached to the right is new P&L chart using $3.40 adjusted cost for Aug/June 85/90 call spread.

At some point down the road, I will roll the long leg of Aug $85 calls to Aug $90 calls for $3.00 or higher credit, thus practically cashing out almost 90% of our original cost from the trade.

Good luck!

Market Digest Live 5-4-10

2010-05-04T05:57:00.000-07:00

Market Digest Live 5-4-10

Market Digest 5-4-10

2010-05-04T05:52:00.000-07:00

Abercrombie & Fitch upgraded at Morgan Stanley
ANF was upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight, Morgan Stanley said. $56 price target. Stock appears attractive, on a sum-of-the-parts analysis.

Blackrock rated new Buy at Sterne Agee
Coverage of BLK was started with a Buy rating, Sterne Agee said. $222 price target. Recent underperformance has created an attractive buying opportunity.

Clear Channel Outdoor upgraded at Wells
CCO was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform, Wells Fargo said. Company has late-cycle exposure to the advertising recovery.

Clorox downgraded at Jefferies
CLX was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Jefferies said. $67.50 price target. Company is facing higher input costs.

Clorox estimates raised at Goldman
CLX estimates were increased through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is realizing higher margins. Neutral rating and $67 price target.

Salesforce.com upgraded at Goldman
CRM was upgraded to Buy, Goldman Sachs said. Estimates also raised, as the company should continue to grow sales in the SaaS market. $102 price target.

Great Plains Energy downgraded at Keybanc
GXP was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Keybanc said. Valuation call, as the stock has moved up through the $19.50 price target.

Hasbro rated new Buy at Goldman
Coverage of HAS was started with a Buy rating, Goldman Sachs said. Company was also placed on the Conviction List, with a $56 price target. Appears to be in the early stages of a sales growth cycle.

Hologic downgraded at Brean Murray
HOLX was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Brean Murray said. Stock appears to have limited upside from current levels.

Hospira upgraded at Goldman
HSP was upgraded from Neutral to Buy, Goldman Sachs said. $66 price target. Market is not yet pricing in the potential for positive earnings surprises.

Jarden downgraded at Jefferies
JAH was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Jefferies said. $34 price target. Company is facing currency issues in Europe and higher shipping costs in China.

Kaydon downgraded at Keybanc
KDN was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Keybanc said. Company is guiding for flatter margins in the second half of the year.

Mattel rated new Neutral at Goldman
MAT was initiated with a Neutral rating, Goldman Sachs said. Sales expectations appear high, though the company could still deliver another year of 20% earnings growth. $27 price target.

Power Integrations upgraded at Piper Jaffray
POWI upgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating raised to Overweight from Neutral. Maintains $43 price target and 2010 EPS estimates of $2.08.

PPG Industries rated new Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
PPG was initiated with an Equal-weight rating, Morgan Stanley said. $69 price target. Stock is already pricing in leverage to recovery in industrial production. Equal-weight rating.

Sapient coverage assumed at Citi
SAPE upgraded to Buy from Hold. As media investors become more focused on Sapient's digital marketing exposure, valuation will improve, Citigroup said. Price target jumped to $14.50 from $11.

Sapient added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman
SAPE was added to the Conviction Buy List, Goldman Sachs said. Company is positioned well to benefit from a cyclical recovery in technology and marketing spending. $13 price target.

Scotts Miracle-Gro downgraded at Jefferies

SMG was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Jefferies said. $52.50 price target. Company is facing higher plastic and paper costs.

Synovus Financial upgraded at Citi
SNV upgraded to Buy from Neutral. The successfully executed $1 billion equity raise removed the key overhang for the stock, Ctigroup said.

Sonoco Products rated new Outperform at Oppenheimer
SON was initiated with an Outperform rating, Oppenheimer said. $40 price target. Consumer business has a robust pipeline of new products.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals upgraded at Piper Jaffray
VRX upgraded at Piper Jaffray. Rating raised to Neutral from Underweight. Price target raised to $44 from $27. 2010 EPS estimates raised to $2.86 from $2.52.

Accenture cut from Conviction Buy list at Goldman

ACN was removed from the Conviction Buy list, Goldman Sachs said. See more near-term upside in SAPE. $50 price target.

Anadarko Petroleum estimates boosted at Morgan Stanley
APC estimates were upped through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Company has strong earnings momentum, despite uncertainty in the Gulf of Mexico. Equal-weight rating.

Arrow Electronics target, estimates boosted Citi
ARW price target jumped to $43 from $36.50 as 1Q10 earnings beat and optimistic outlook, Citigroup said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lifted to $3.16 and $3.20, respectively. Maintain Buy rating.

Arrow Electronics numbers raised at UBS
Shares of ARW now seen reaching $36, according to UBS. Estimates also increased, to match the company's new guidance. Buy rating.

Avon Products estimates cut at UBS
AVP estimates were lowered through 2011, UBS said. Company is seeing lower earnings in China and Venezuela, while facing extra charges for its internal investigation. Buy rating and $40 price target.

Baxter estimates, target lowered at Goldman
Shares of BAX now seen reaching $52, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also reduced, given slower expected growth in the plasma business. Neutral rating.

Baxter estimates lowered at UBS
BAX estimates were cut through 2011, UBS said. Recall of the Colleague pump will hurt sales. Buy rating and $60 price target.

Bristol-Myers estimates reduced at Morgan Stanley
BMY estimates were cut through 2011, Morgan Stanley said. Company to see an impact from healthcare reform. Overweight rating.

Beazer Home price target higher at BofA/Merrill
BZH price target jumped to $7 from $4.50 as balance sheet improves, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Reiterate Neutral rating.

CB Richard Ellis numbers boosted at Goldman
Shares of CBG now seen reaching $21, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also upped, given improved brokerage activity. Buy rating.

Chesapeake Energy estimates boosted at UBS
CHK estimates were upped through 2011, UBS said. Company boosted its production guidance. Neutral rating and $25 price target.

Comcast estimates changed at Barclays
CMCSA 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lowered to $1.28 and $1.48, respectively. Expect video sub losses to moderate, Barclays said. Reiterate Equal Weight rating and $20 price target.

CapitalSource added to Top Picks List at FBR
CSE was added to the Top Picks List, FBR Capital Markets said. Profitability is being pushed out, but the thesis remains intact. $6.50 price target.

Dick's Sporting Goods numbers boosted at FBR
Shares of DKS now seen reaching $33, according to FBR Capital Markets. Estimates were also upped, following positive channel checks. Outperform rating.

Gilead estimates increased at Morgan Stanley
GILD estimates were raised through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company continues to generate solid cash flow. Overweight rating and $48 price target.

Hersha Hospitality target, estimate higher at BofA/Merrill
HT price target lifted to $7 from $6. Estimates raised through 2011 on robust NY RevPAR, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Maintain Buy.

Kraft estimates lowered at Morgan Stanley
KFT estimates were reduced through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Company is facing a higher pension cost at Cadbury. Overweight rating and $32 price target.

King Pharmaceuticals target, estimates lower at BofA/Merrill
KG price target trimmed by a dollar to $14. Share have been weak lately due to slow launch of Embeda and negative FDA panel meeting on Acurox, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. 2010 and 2011 estimates lowered. Reiterate Buy.

McKesson estimates, target upped at Goldman
MCK estimates were boosted through 2013, Goldman Sachs said. Company raised forward guidance. Neutral rating and new $70 price target.

Motorola target, estimates higher at Credit Suisse
MOT price target raised by a dollar to $11 after detailed analysis of non-handset markets, Credit Suisse said. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lifted to 47 cents and 70 cents, respectively. Outperform rating.

Microsemi estimates, target increased at FBR
MSCC estimates were raised through 2011, FBR Capital Markets said. Recent acquisition should boost growth. Outperform rating and new $25 price target.

Omnicare estimates increased at UBS
OCR estimates were raised through 2011, UBS said. Stock buyback and debt refinancing should boost earnings. Buy rating and $36 price target.

Pitney Bowes estimates increased at Goldman
PBI estimates were raised through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing higher margins, but lower sales. Sell rating and $22 price target.

Principal Financial numbers raised at FBR
Shares of PFG now seen reaching $32, according to FBR Capital Markets. Estimates also increased, given better margins and asset inflows. Market Perform rating.

SuccessFactors numbers boosted at Goldman
Shares of SFSF now seen reaching $25, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also upped, given the company's strong momentum in bookings. Buy rating.

Market Digest Live 5-3-10

2010-05-03T11:21:00.001-07:00

Market Digest Live 5-3-10

Housekeeping: ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG)

2010-05-03T08:29:00.000-07:00

Mid April we bought ATPG June 20/25 call spread for $1.60 and sold half for 50% profit two days later for $2.40. Now, the stock has taken a sharp U-turn trading below $18 and the call spread has shrunk to $1.00. I am making the following adjustment:

- Buy to close June $25 calls for $0.40 debit
- Sell to open May $20 calls for $0.60 credit

This remaining half position is now converted to May/June $20 call calendar.

Good luck!

Housekeeping: GS and AMZN

2010-05-03T07:55:00.000-07:00

Quick note: I am closing the short leg of calendar spreads we have on GS and AMZN:

GS - Buy to close May $190 calls for 9 cents
AMZN - Buy to close May $165 calls for 17 cents

Just no point of keeping them open any longer.