Fair Value Stocks

Monstrous reversal

2026-03-31T23:04:00.001+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a monstrous downside reversal, swinging from a new hist' high of $117.18, to settle -$24.07 (20.8%) to $91.77.

GDX, monthly

Summary

A new hist' high of $117s, but imploding to the $78s, and settling in the $91s. Monthly momentum has rolled over. RSI has cooled to the 67s.

Most notable of all... the March candle is bearish engulfing, and bodes distinctly s/t bearish for April, and perhaps some months.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico broke a new hist' high of $255.24, if cooling back for a net March decline of -$48.17 (19.2%) to $202.98. Monthly momentum has rolled over. Vol' picked up to 69M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net March decline of -$21.49 (16.6%) to $108.25. The monthly candle is bearish engulfing. Monthly momentum rolled over. Vol' picked up to 266M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick Mining saw a net March decline of -$9.95 (19.6%) to $40.79. The monthly candle is bearish engulfing. Momentum rolled over. Vol' was a little higher at 338M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net March decline of -$13.89 (20.3%) to $54.63. Momentum rolled over. Volume was a historic 189M.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Newmont. However, gold, silver, and the miners are short/mid term broken. Based on the monthly candles, even the bold will leave them alone at this time.

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Powerful and profitable miners

2026-02-28T00:52:00.001+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX broke a new historic high, with a net February gain of +$21.64 (23.0%) to $115.84.

GDX, monthly

Summary

A very positive end to the month, breaking a new historic high of $115.99. Monthly momentum accelerated upward, and is on the extremely high side. Monthly RSI 89s remains very overbought.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico broke a new hist' high of $252.78, if cooling back for a net February gain of +$61.10 (32.1%) to $251.60. Monthly momentum accelerated upward, and is on the very high side. Vol' was a reduced 49.7M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net February gain of +$17.65 (15.7%) to $130.00. Monthly momentum ticked higher, and is on the extremely high side. Vol' was a pretty standard 183M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick Mining saw a net February gain of +$5.33 (11.7%) to $50.74. Momentum is on the very high side. Vol' was a little lower at 321M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net February gain of +$14.10 (25.8%) to $68.60. Volume remained a high 159M.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Newmont.

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Wild month for the miners

2026-01-30T22:59:00.000+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January gain of +$8.43 (9.8%) to $94.20.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners printed a new historic high of $113.50, if spiraling back to settle at $94.20. January's candle is very spiky on the upper side, and threatens further cooling in early February. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. Monthly RSI 85s remains overbought.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico broke a new hist' high of $225.00, if cooling back for a net January gain of +$20.97 (12.4%) to $190.50. Monthly momentum ticked a touch upward, and is on the very high side. Vol' picked up to 60.2M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont broke a new hist' high of $134.88, if cooling back for a net January gain of +$12.50 (12.5%) to $112.35. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and is on the extremely high side. Vol' was a pretty standard 205M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick Mining broke a new hist' high of $54.69, if cooling back for a net January gain of +$2.24 (5.1%) to $45.79. Momentum is on the very high side. Vol' was a little higher at 325M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver printed a new hist' high of $69.99, if cooling back for a net January gain of +$2.79 (5.4%) to $54.60. Volume was a historic 186M.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Newmont.

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A year for the miners

2026-01-01T21:44:00.003+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$3.14 (3.8%) to $85.77. For the year, GDX was net higher by a monstrous $52.10 (+154.8%).

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners printed a new historic high of $91.67, if cooling back to $85.77 December's candle is rather spiky on the upper side, and threatens some cooling in early 2026. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. Monthly RSI 82s remains overbought.

For the year, GDX was net higher by a monstrous +154.8%, helped by powerful upside in gold, silver, and further helped by the positive equity market.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico saw a net December decline of -$4.50 (2.6%) to $169.53. Monthly momentum ticked a touch lower, and is on the very high side. Vol' picked up to 53.3M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$9.12 (10.0%) to $99.85. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and is on the extremely high side. Vol' was a pretty standard 191M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net December gain of +$2.21 (5.3%) to $43.55. Momentum is on the very high side. Vol' further declined to 264M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net December gain of +$6.14 (13.4%) to $51.81. Volume remained a high 146M
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader for over a year.
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Miners resuming upward

2025-11-28T19:23:00.001+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net November gain of +$10.90 (15.1%) to $82.96.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners printed a low of $68.20, if recovering to the highest ever monthly settlement. November's candle is bullish engulfing, and bodes distinctly positive into early 2026. Monthly momentum accelerated upward, and is on the very high side. Monthly RSI 81s remains overbought.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico saw a net November gain of +$13.32 (8.2%) to $174.13. Monthly momentum ticked a touch higher, and is on the very high side. Vol' was considerably lower at 40.4M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net November gain of +$10.34 (12.8%) to $91.08. I would note the monthly 10MA at $64.38, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and is on the extremely high side. Vol' was considerably lower at 175M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net November gain of +$8.86 (27.1%) to $41.52, the highest monthly settlement since September 2012. Momentum is on the very high side. Vol' declined to 352M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver broke a new historic high of $45.97, with a net November gain of +$10.37 (29.6%) to $45.44. Volume was significantly less at 102M.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader for over a year.

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Miners turn lower

2025-10-31T21:14:00.001+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net October decline of -$4.34 (5.7%) to $72.06.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners broke a new historic high of $85.08, but swung very powerfully lower to settle at $72.06. October's candle is very spiky on the upper side, reflective of tired bulls. Monthly RSI 77s remains overbought.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico printed a new hist' high of $187.50, but reversing lower for a net October decline of -$7.75 (4.6%) to $160.81. Monthly momentum ticked a touch higher, and is on the very high side. Vol' was a little lower at 69.9M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont printed a new hist' high of $98.58, if reversing lower... for an October decline of -$3.34 (4.0%) to $80.97. I would note the monthly 10MA at $59.65, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and is on the extremely high side. Vol' increased to 286M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net October gain of +3cents (0.1%) to $32.80, the highest monthly settlement since September 2012. Momentum is on the very high side. Vol' declined to 433M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver broke a new historic high of $42.57, but saw a rather severe reversal... for a net October decline of -$3.52 (9.1%) to $35.21. Volume was marginally lower at 148M. Momentum has started to tick back lower.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader for over a year. The two s/t concerns... gold and silver are s/t broken. Second... if the broader equity market sees a multi-week correction, the miners would likely struggle, even if gold and/or silver resume upward.

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Miners powerfully strong

2025-09-30T23:09:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net September gain of +$13.23 (20.9%) to $76.40.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners broke a new historic high of $77.18. I would note the 10MA at $50.15, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains extremely bullish. Monthly RSI 84s... the most ever overbought.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico printed a new hist' high of $169.38, with a September gain of +$24.79 (17.2%) to $168.56. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. Vol' picked up to 72.9M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont printed a new hist' high of $87.93, with a September gain of +$10.16 (13.7%) to $84.31. I would note the monthly 10MA at $55.22, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward for a seventh month. Vol' increased to 263M

Sept'29th saw news that CEO Palmer will leave (as of Dec'31st 2025).
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net September gain of +$6.14 (23.1%) to $32.77, the highest monthly settlement since September 2012. Momentum is on the very high side. Vol' picked up to 587M.

Sept'29th saw CEO Bristow leave (with immediate effect)... for reasons unknown. I don't see this as a mid/long term issue for Barrick, not least if Gold/silver/copper continue to broadly climb.
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver broke a new historic high of $39.60, for a net September gain of +$4.81 (14.2%) to $38.73, on record vol' of 162M. Momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader for over a year. The only s/t concern is if the broader equity market sees a correction, the miners would likely struggle... even if gold and/or silver continue to climb.

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New historic high

2025-08-29T22:23:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net August gain of +$11.53 (22.3%) to $63.17.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners broke a new historic high of $63.23. I would note the 10MA at $46.23, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. Monthly RSI 79s... the most ever overbought.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico printed a new hist' high of $144.78, with an August gain of +$19.81 (15.9%) to $144.17. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and is on the very high side. Vol' was a little lower at 49.8M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw an August gain of +$12.30 (19.8%) to $74.40. I would note the monthly 10MA at $51.10, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward for a sixth month. Vol' declined a to 176M.
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net August gain of +$5.63 (26.8%) to $26.63, the highest monthly settlement since December 2012. Momentum accelerated upward, and is on the high side. Vol' picked up to 332M.
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net August gain of +$7.00 (26.0%) to $33.92, on lower vol' of 93M. Momentum ticked back upward, if remaining on the high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader for over a year. The primary concern should be if the broader equity market is net lower across Sept-Oct', the miners will struggle... even if gold and/or silver continue to climb.

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Choppy month for the miners

2025-07-31T22:59:00.001+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net July decline of -$0.42 (0.8%) to $51.64

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners broke a new multi-year high of $54.78, if cooling back to settle at $51.64. I would note the 10MA at $43.90, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico printed a new hist' high of $129.77, with a July gain of +$5.43 (4.6%) to $124.46. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a second month, but remains on the very high side. Vol' was a little lower at 54M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a July gain of +$3.84 (6.6%) to $62.10. I would note the monthly 10MA at $48.12, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward for a fifth month. Vol' picked up a little to 274M.
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net July gain of +$0.30 (1.4%) to $21.12, the highest monthly settlement since March 2022. Momentum ticked a little higher, and is moderately positive. Vol' was a considerably lighter 222M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver printed a new cycle high of $31.03, but saw a net July decline of -$1.38 (4.9%) to $27.02, on lower vol' of 103M. Momentum ticked back lower, if remaining on the moderately high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader for over a year. The primary concern should be if the broader equity market is net lower into October, the miners will struggle... even if gold and/or silver continue to climb.

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Half a year of upside

2025-06-30T23:35:00.002+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net June gain of +$1.41 (2.8%) to $52.06

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a sixth consecutive month. GDX printing $54.70 - the highest since Nov'2011, if cooling to settle at $52.06. I would note the 10MA at $42.67, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)

Agnico printed a new hist' high of $126.65, with a June gain of +$0.94 (0.8%) to $118.93. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, but remains on the very high side. Vol' was lower at 57M.
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Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a June gain of +$5.54 (10.5%) to $58.26. I would note the monthly 10MA at $47.17, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward for a fourth month. Vol' remained elevated at 254M.
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net June gain of +$1.66 (8.7%) to $20.82, the highest monthly settlement since March 2022. Momentum ticked a little higher, and is moderately positive. Vol' was a little lighter at 337M
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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net June gain of +$4.01 (16.4%) to $28.40, on sustained high vol' of 124M. Momentum ticked back upward, if remaining on the moderately high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Agnico Eagle Mines, which has been the sector leader over a year. The primary concern should be if the broader equity market is net lower into October, the miners will struggle... even if gold and/or silver continue to climb.

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Month five for the miners

2025-05-31T00:26:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net May gain of +$1.64 (3.3%) to $50.65.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a fifth consecutive month. GDX printed $45.10, but settling at $50.65, the highest monthly settlement since Nov'2011. I would note the 10MA at $41.28, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a May gain of +$0.29 (0.5%) to $52.72. I would note the monthly 10MA at $46.57, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward for a third month. Vol' was lower, if still a heavy 255M
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Barrick Mining (B)

Barrick saw a net May gain of +$0.22 (1.2%) to $19.16. Momentum ticked a little higher, and remains marginally positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

First Majestic Silver settled -$0.09 (1.4%) to $6.17, on record vol' of 456M. I'd keep in mind that volume has been so much higher because of the recent merger with Gatos Silver. Momentum continues to flat-line on the marginally positive side.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net May decline of -$0.68 (2.7%) to $24.39, on higher vol' of 126M. Momentum ticking lower, if remaining on the moderately high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Newmont, which has less of a copper component than Barrick. However, the concern should be the main market. If the broader equity market is net lower into October, the miners will struggle... even if gold continues to climb.

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Miners still digging upward

2025-04-30T23:35:00.003+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net April gain of +$3.04 (6.6%) to $49.01

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a fourth consecutive month. GDX printed $53.25, the highest since Dec'2011. I would note the 10MA at $39.97, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw an April gain of +$4.40 (9.1%) to $52.68. I would note the monthly 10MA at $45.17, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward. Vol' was a heavy 348M
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick saw a net April decline of -$0.40 (2.1%) to $19.04. Momentum ticked a little higher, and is marginally positive.

NEWS: Barrick Gold is set to rename to Barrick Mining, with the NYSE ticker: GOLD > B, whilst remaining ABX on the TSX. Change to take effect as of the start of May 9th.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

First Majestic Silver settled -$0.43 (6.4%) to $6.26, on record vol' of 447M. Momentum is flat-lining on the marginally positive side.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net April decline of -$0.65 (2.5%) to $25.18, on much higher vol' of 102M. Momentum remains on the moderately high side.
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Miners multi-year high

2025-03-31T22:28:00.010+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net March gain of +$6.25 (15.7%) to $45.97.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a third consecutive month. GDX printed $46.94, the highest since Oct'2012. I would note the 10MA at $38.42, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a March gain of +$5.69 (13.4%) to $42.84. I would note the monthly 10MA at $45.17, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick saw a net March gain of +$1.69 (9.5%) to $19.44. Momentum ticked a little higher, and is fractionally positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

First Majestic Silver saw a low of $5.09, but swung upward to settle +$1.32 (24.6%) to $6.69, on record vol' of 436M. Momentum ticked back upward, remaining marginally positive.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net March gain of +$2.10 (8.8%) to $25.83, on higher vol' of 72M. Momentum remains on the moderately high side.
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Miners higher with gold

2025-03-01T00:17:00.001+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net February gain of +$0.76 (1.9%) to $39.72, largely helped by gold printing a new hist' high of $2974.00

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a second consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $37.31, which was settled above, as the s/t trend is bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a February high of $48.23, if cooling back to settle +$0.12 (0.3%) to $42.84. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.71, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a fifth month, but is leveling out.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick saw a net February gain of +$1.47 (9.0%) to $17.75. Momentum ticked a little higher, and is fractionally positive. After some drama, the company and CEO Bristow have reached an agreement with the Mali regime.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

First Majestic Silver saw a net February decline of -$0.32 (5.7%) to $5.37, on record vol' of 389M. Vol' was skewed due to the recently finalised merger with Gatos Silver. Momentum ticked a little lower, if remaining marginally positive.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net February gain of +$0.62 (2.7%) to $23.83, on marginally higher vol' of 63M. Momentum remains on the moderately high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Newmont, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Miners digging upward

2025-02-01T19:25:00.000+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January gain of +$5.05 (14.9%) to $38.96, helped by gold/silver, and the main market.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners started the year on a powerfully bullish note. I would note the 10MA at $36.62, which was settled back above, as the s/t trend is back to bullish.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont rebounded with the sector, a net January gain of +$5.50 (14.9%) to $42.72. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.42, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a fourth month, but is leveling out.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick saw a net January gain of +$0.87 (5.6%) to $16.37. Momentum ticked lower for a fourth month, and will likely turn negative as of Feb'3rd. The company and CEO Bristow are mired in problems with the Mali regime.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

First Majestic Silver saw a net January gain of +$0.21 (3.8%) to $5.70, on record vol' of 339M. Vol' was skewed due to the finalised merger with Gatos Silver. Momentum ticked a little lower, if remaining marginally positive.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American Silver saw a net January gain of +$2.99 (14.8%) to $23.21, on relatively low vol' of 55.7M. Momentum remaining on the moderately high side.
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Of the four, yours truly favours Newmont, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Miners fall into year end

2025-01-01T21:27:00.001+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December decline of -$3.31 (8.9%) to $33.91, dragged down by gold/silver, and the main market.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners dug lower for a second consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $35.84, which was settled under, as the m/t bullish trend has been broken.

The ultimate concern should be if (or rather... when) the main market puts in a mid/long term top, gold/silver, and the related miners will be prone to being dragged lower.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont fell for a third month, a net December decline of -$4.72 (11.2%) to $37.22. I would note the monthly 10MA at $43.67, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a third month, and is prone to turning negative by Feb'3rd.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick fell for a fourth month, a net December decline of -$1.99 (11.4%) to $15.50. Momentum ticked lower for a third month, and will likely turn negative as of January 2nd.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

First Majestic fell for a second month, a net December decline of -$0.62 (10.1%) to $5.49, on high vol' of 193M. Momentum ticked a little lower, and prone to turning negative by early Feb'. The effective merger with Gatos Silver (GATO) is due to be finalised within Q1 2025.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Pan American fell for a second month, a net December decline of -$1.75 (8.0%) to $20.22, on lower vol' of 56M. Momentum ticked a little lower, if remaining on the moderately high side. December's candle is bearish engulfing, with an upper spike... reflective of tired miner bulls.
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Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Miners lower with gold/silver

2024-11-30T18:32:00.002+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net November decline of -$2.68 (6.6%) to $37.66, dragged down by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners saw the first monthly decline since June. I would note the 10MA at $35.47, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.

The ultimate concern is if the main market puts in a m/t top, gold/silver, and the related miners will be prone to being dragged lower. For now... there is ZERO sign of that.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net November decline of -$3.23 (7.1%) to $41.94. I would note the monthly 10MA at $43.00, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a second month, if still on the positive side. October's bearish engulfing candle played out.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick settled -$1.72 (8.9%) to $17.49. Momentum ticked lower for a second month, and might turn negative in January. The third consecutive monthly close under psy' $20 is a concern. October's bearish engulfing candle played out.
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net November decline of -$1.26 (17.1%) to $6.11, on high vol' of 204M. Momentum ticked a little lower, and is on the marginally positive side. The effective merger with Gatos Silver (GATO) won't likely be finalised until Q1 2025.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net November decline of -$1.33 (5.7%) to $21.97, on static vol' of 78M. Momentum ticked a little lower, if remaining on the moderately high side. Big target are the April 2022 $28s. That bullish outlook would be dropped with any monthly close under the key 10MA ($19s).
--

Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Higher high, higher low

2024-10-31T21:38:00.001+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net October gain of +$0.52 (1.3%) to $40.34, helped by higher gold/silver, and a net positive main market.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were higher for the seventh month of eight, helped by gold/silver, and the net positive main market. I would note the 10MA at $34.50, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Thursday Oct'31st saw the miners all lower, largely pressured by the main equity market. The ultimate concern should be... if the main market is close to a m/t top, gold/silver, and the related miners will be prone to being dragged lower.
-

Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont printed $58.72, but swung very powerfully lower, a net October decline of -$8.01 (15.0%) to $45.44. I would note the monthly 10MA at $42.42, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, and is on the high side. The monthly candle is bearish engulfing, and bodes net bearish for November.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick printed $21.35, but settled -$0.57 (2.9%) to $19.32. Momentum back lower, and is on the moderately high side. The second consecutive monthly close under psy' $20 isn't great, and threatens some cooling to the 10MA in the $17s. The monthly candle is bearish engulfing, and bodes net bearish for November.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net October gain of +$1.38 (23.0%) to $7.38, on static vol' of 240M. Momentum ticked a little higher, and is on the marginally positive side. The effective merger with Gatos Silver (GATO) won't likely be finalised until Q1 2025.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net October gain of +$2.54 (12.2%) to $23.41, on static vol' of 75M. Momentum ticked a little higher, if remaining on the moderately high side. Big target are the April 2022 $28s. That bullish outlook would be dropped with any monthly close under the key 10MA ($18s).
--

Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Miners higher with gold

2024-09-30T21:54:00.002+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net September gain of +$1.20 (3.1%) to $39.82, helped by higher gold/silver, and a positive main market.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were higher for the sixth month of seven, helped by gold/silver, and the positive main market. I would note the 10MA at $33.57, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont climbed for a seventh consecutive month, a net September gain of +$0.32 (0.6%) to $53.45. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.94, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. The Jan'2023 $56s have been tested. From there... the $65s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick lagged the sector, settling -$0.30 (1.5%) to $19.89. Momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately high side. The monthly close under psy' $20 isn't so great, and threatens some cooling to the 10MA in the $17s.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net September gain of +$0.41 (7.3%) to $6.00, on very high vol' of 240M. Momentum is flat-lining on the marginally positive side. Things only turn interesting >$7.00. News: an effective merger with Gatos Silver (GATO), although that won't likely be finalised until Q1 2025.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net September gain of +$0.67 (3.3%) to $20.88, on static vol' of 75M. Momentum ticked lower for a second month, if remaining on the moderately high side. Big target are the April 2022 $28s. That bullish outlook would be dropped with any monthly close under the key 10MA ($18s).
--

Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Five of six

2024-08-31T19:27:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net August gain of +$0.70 (1.8%) to $38.62, especially helped by higher gold.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were higher for the fifth month of six, helped by gold, and the positive main market. I would note the 10MA at $32.66, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont climbed for a sixth consecutive month, a net August gain of +$4.32 (8.8%) to $53.39. I would note the monthly 10MA at $40.74, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is increasingly positive. Next resistance are the Jan'2023 $56s.
--

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick settled +$1.75 (9.5%) to $18.53. Momentum is increasingly positive. The monthly close >psy' $20 is decisive, and offers the March 2020 $24s.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net August decline of -$0.58 (9.5%) to $5.59, on higher vol' of 145M. Momentum ticked a touch lower, if remaining marginally positive. Things only turn interesting >$7.00

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net August decline of -$2.69 (11.7%) to $20.21, on higher vol' of 77M. Momentum ticked back a little, and remains on the moderately high side. Big target are the April 2022 $28s
--

Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Higher high, higher low

2024-07-31T22:12:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net July gain of +$3.99 (11.8%) to $37.92, especially helped by higher gold.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully higher, helped by gold, and the positive main market.
I would note the 10MA at $31.56, which was settled above.

Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net July gain of +$7.20 (17.2%) to $49.07. I would note the monthly 10MA at $39.06, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is increasingly positive. Next resistance is psy' $50, and then the Jan'2023 $56s.
--

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick settled +$1.85 (11.1%) to $18.53. Momentum is ticking upward, if remaining fractionally positive. Things turn interesting with a monthly close >psy' $20.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net July gain of +$0.26 (4.4%) to $6.18, on higher vol' of 108M. Momentum is flat-lining, if remaining marginally positive. Big target are the $9s, and then the $18s.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net July gain of +$3.13 (15.7%) to $23.01, on lower vol' of 73M. Momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately high side. Big target are the $28s
--

Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.

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Miners cooling back

2024-06-29T15:52:00.004+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net June decline of -$1.37 (3.9%) to $33.93, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully lower, mostly pressured by silver.
A more lousy performance, relative to the main market.
I would note the 10MA at $30.41, which was still settled above.
--

Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net June gain of +$0.18 (0.4%) to $41.87. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.76, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is increasingly positive. Soft target are the $47s, with secondary of the $49s/psy'50.
--

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick settled -41cents (0.4%) to $16.68. Momentum is flat-lining, if remaining fractionally positive. Soft target are the $19s.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net June decline of -$1.24 (17.3%) to $5.92, on lower vol' of 99M. Momentum ticked back lower, if remaining marginally positive. Big target are the $9s, and then the $18s.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net June decline of -$2.12 (9.6%) to $19.88, on lower vol' of 77M. Momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately positive side. Big target are the $28s
--

Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.
-

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Silver miners leading

2024-05-31T22:04:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net May gain of +$2.24 (6.7%) to $35.37, helped by higher gold/silver, and a positive equity market.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully higher for a third consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $29.91, which was settled above. The 2023 high of $35.67, was briefly/marginally exceeded... with a May high of $37.47.
--

Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net May gain of +$1.31 (3.2%) to $41.95. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.61, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and has turned positive. Soft target $47s, secondary 49/psy'50.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick settled +54cents (0.3%) to $17.08. Momentum ticked upward, and remains fractionally positive. Soft target are the $19s.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG)

A net May gain of +$0.50 (7.5%) to $7.16, on high vol' of 176M. Momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. Big target are the $9s, and then the $18s.

Pan American Silver (PAAS)

A net May gain of +$3.66 (20.0%) to $22.02, on very high vol' of 114M. Momentum ticked upward, settling moderately positive. Big target are the $28s
--

Of the four, yours truly favours AG.
-

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Miners digging upward

2024-04-30T21:47:00.000+01:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net April gain of +$1.51 (4.8%) to $33.13, helped by higher gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully higher, very resilient to the broadly lower equity market. I would note the 10MA at $29.46, which was settled above. The 2023 high of $35.67, was briefly/marginally exceeded... with an April high of $35.74.

As ever, any main market downside would be a restraint to the mining stocks, as we saw into end month.
--

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly

Newmont saw a net April gain of +$4.80 (13.4%) to $40.64, on very high vol' of 327M. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.58, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, due to turn positive in May. Soft target $43s, secondary 49/psy'50.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

Settling precisely flat for April, at $16.64, on very high vol' of 665M. Momentum ticked upward, settling fractionally positive. Having printed $18.95 in April, next target are the $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

A net April gain of +$0.79 (13.4%) to $6.67, on very high vol' of 269M. Momentum ticked upward, settling fractionally positive. Big target are the $9.

--
Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end April 2024... I hold a stock-option position in GOLD

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Miners playing catchup

2024-03-28T23:00:00.060+00:00

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net March gain of +$5.26 (19.9%) to $31.62, helped by higher gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of miners were very powerfully higher, out-performing the broader equity market. I would note the 10MA at $29.11, which was settled above.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market remains m/t bullish.
--

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly

Newmont saw a net March gain of +$4.83 (15.6%) to $35.84. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.57, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, due to turn positive in May. Soft target $37s, secondary $43s.
--

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

A net March gain of +$1.98 (13.5%) to $16.64. Momentum ticked back upward, turning fractionally positive. Soft target $17s, secondary $19s.
--

First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

A net March gain of +$1.39 (31.1%) to $5.88. Momentum ticked back upward, turning fractionally positive. Big target are the $9s

--
Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end March 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM and GOLD

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