Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Ouch! Sellers Show No Remorse

Today was not a good day for bulls, even if the most recent swing low held as support, the nature of today's candlesticks was bearish with the likelihood for a follow through down particularly high. 

In the case of the Nasdaq, there was a confirmed break of the 200-day MA although the index has moved into an oversold condition. The spike low of 14,630 is unlikely to hold but there is an outside chance we could see a new hammer/spike low with Wednesday finishing with a close above 14,630. 

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Sunday, January 16, 2022

Running out of options

Friday was a defense by bulls but the frequency of the support test is a concern. The Russell 2000 is looking the most vulnerable as it attempted a (failed) bullish piercing pattern. Friday's buying barely cut into Thursday's selling but the index is outperforming the Nasdaq. but it will need to push from here if it's not to collapse. Either way, I'm not liking Friday's action...

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Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Relief Rallies stall for now

No surprise given the selling which has come before that the nascent rallies now find themselves moving into areas of prior supply. Today's candlesticks are not great but are more neutral in tone than outright bearish.

For the Nasdaq, we had a bearish 'black' candlestick below all key moving averages. Supporting technicals are all bearish and there hasn't been enough of a recovery in relative performance to suggest this bounce can last much longer.  

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Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Swing Lows Take Shape Across Indices

Today effectively confirmed the swing low is in development across indices, but it's still early days if today's buying is to be reflected in a rally. The first challenge is to make it back to the last swing high. 

For the Nasdaq, this means mounting a challenge of 16,000 as the 200-day MA has played as a launch point for this swing low.  Technicals remain net negative. 

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