Sunday, March 20, 2022

Tech and Large Cap Markets Make Early Running

The Nasdaq and S&P both made strong recoveries from their last stand against February lows.  What was looking a slam dunk for a big move lower has instead turned into a four day rally which broke through resistance.  Friday's gains coincided with options expiration which clouded accumulation volume.

The gains in the Nasdaq took the index to 50-day MA resistance. It would not be surprising to see one or two days of weakness from here, but we now have the benefit of new 'buy' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and mid-line Stochastics, not to mention the relative performance gain over the S&P.  After what had looked a grim outlook for the index, this appears to have turned the corner.

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Monday, March 14, 2022

S&P and Nasdaq Set Up For Big Loss Tomorrow

When I see markets edge back to a big reversal low, then the set up is for a panic collapse once the lows get taken out, which seems inevitable for the Nasdaq and S&P.  Tomorrow could be a rough day.  Bulls can try and cling on to the generally light volume in the selling to the lows. 

In the case of the Nasdaq, all technicals are negative and an already weak relative performance is accelerating lower.  February was a 'death cross' between 50-day and 200-day MAs and this is marking the long term trend lower. 

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Thursday, March 10, 2022

Bullish reversals, but markets not out of the woods.

Just as the selling meant indices were not as weak as headlines suggested. Likewise, today's buying was not as good as the media would suggest either. However, it did at least stall the break of the most recent swing low.

The Nasdaq has made its way back to declining resistance of the slow forming wedge, but technicals are all bearish and it remains some way from a bullish 'buy' in relative performance to peer indices.

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Tuesday, March 08, 2022

Not strong enough...

So the market has spoken and the selling continues. Whatever defense traders were able to mount on Friday was swiftly taken out on Monday.  However, the Russell 2000 again came out looking the best.

Hardest hit was the Nasdaq as it lost 3.6% in a clear push into the large white candlestick marking the Feburary swing low reversal.  Today's selling came with a return 'sell' trigger in the MACD to go with existing 'sell' triggers in other technicals.  Relative performance took a large tick lower.  The only salvation for bulls was the lower volume; despite the big price loss there was no confirmed distribution. 

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