Fallond Stock Picks

Stock Market Commentary: Bullish Accumulation

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 14:52:06 PDT

A day where bulls got excited; firm accumulation was backed by some significant moving average breaks. Best move came from the semiconductor index which powered through 20-day and 50-day MAs. Next challenge is the last reaction high (then May highs).

Strength in the semiconductor index will help Tech averages test channel resistance.

The Russell 2000 worked off its 200-day MAs but it also saw the 20-day MA make a bearish cross of the 50-day MA. However, the CCI made a bullish cross of -100.

The S&P suffered the same fate as the Russell 2000 with the 20-day MA cutting below the 50-day MA. But it was able to push off the 200-day MA and finished the day at its highs.

Should be more gains in the tank even if the next couple of days are spent consolidating Monday's move.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:32:17 PDT

Earnings season continues this week but other than one bad day it was a quiet week for the markets. What may happen this week?

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview leads with a continued neutral picture in the short term and a mix of neutral-to-bearish over the intermediate term:

Yong has a downside target of $81.04 on the SPY as part of the head-and-shoulder breakdown

But is the S&P digging in at a support level?

Anthony Caldaro of ObjectiveElliotWave has the AB of the 'ABC' in place for the S&P which either means a flat ('C' = 'A') or zig-zag (i.e. a new low wher 'C' < 'A') move in the months ahead

Richard Lehman shows channels working off lower tests which will either bounce higher for a couple of weeks or acclerate lower.

7/11 -- Friday's action may have seemed dull and non-committal, but it did provide important info on the 5-minute charts. We now have evidence of blue upward minichannels. They are most pronounced on the small caps, but can also be drawn on the Dow and SPX. More importantly, they are flat and weak so far, raising questions about whether they can sustain a move back toward the upper purples. Since the purples were pushed downward by the red minis recently, and remain the dominant channels, we are likely to see further downside before long and there is even a risk of acelerating downward. We are seeing the realization by investors that maybe things aren't quite as rosy as previously thought, and Q2 earnings will likely substantiate that.

So, how far down will we go? The longer picture does not easily provide a downside target for these purples (which show up as red minis on the one-year charts). If one applies a Fibonacci scale to the up move from March, a 38.2% retracement (minimum fib ratio) would take the Dow to about 7980. Other fib numbers would project to the low-mid 7000s. I prefer to see how the channel develops, and right now we are at the lower lines, so some sort of bounce within the downchannel is likely first.

7/9 -- The Naz, QQQQ, SPX, XLF, XLE, and XLK all broke upward from their short term red mini channels today. That bodes well for the others to follow upward over the next few days. While it does not appear to be a very strong rally yet, it should zig zag higher as a counter trend move. Whether it makes it to the upper purples or not is an open question. The fact that several indexes pushed their purples lower is already a sign that this decline (the purple channels) has become more serious (i.e steep) than originally indicated.

Ahsan U. Haque of Thesmarttrader also has a head-and-shoulder break in the S&P but also talks about the potential for a bounce to 907-913.

Andrew's Pitchforks make for good viewing:

Joe has his week in review.

I like this Euro-Dollar comparison chart. Based on this it looks like a falling Dollar / rising Euro is favoured:

Close to a bottom in the S&P weekly (see StochRSI and full stochastics)? Although bounces are not necessarily long in duration (see 2008).

Joe likes to watch this but not much news on the hurricane front.

Finally, Matthew Frailey takes his view on EWT to give a downside target of c600 for the S&P

So are we looking at a short term bounce to lead into another hard September/October?

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Latest Trading Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 14:10:12 PDT

Fewer jobs available this week:

Trade Support: $60-80 / Hr
Active Trader / Business Analyst
Fuel Oil Trader
International Sales Trader
Experienced Options Trader - Chicago
CMO Trader
Prop Trader

Good Luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Market Commentary: Contradictions Continue

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 15:15:39 PDT

More of the same from last week; a downward market supported by rising long term stochastics. Volume climbed to register a distribution week; the second such week since the last accumulation week (S&P is a good example). Market Breadth indicators all showing confirmed 'Sell' signals.

The Nasdaq shows the sharp advance in long term stochastics as the index toys with weekly support around 1,759.

Small Caps weakest with long term support gone; it's now looking at late 2008 reaction lows for demand from buyers

However, Market Breadth is in no doubt - markets are in a clear 'Sell' environment

But at least Bullish Percents are approaching a relief 'Buy' signal

Stick with the trend - the trend been down.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Unfufilled Promises

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 09:34:15 PDT

Markets looked ready for a short term snap back but so far it has failed to materialise. The SOX went at it alone and looks vulnerable with the falling 20-day MA about to cut below the rising 50-day MA. A break of the 50-day MA would send shorts covering and kick start a 1-2 week rally this market looks ready to offer (only a short covering rally though).

Buyers with a longer time frame will look to the 200-day MA for low risk long-side opportunities.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) are likely to test the breakaway gap. True breakaway gaps don't fill so anything below $20.75 puts the bullish picture at risk.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

NASDAQ 60-min Buy Setup ($QQQQ)

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:44:14 PDT

Similar picture across the indices but there is a nice convergence of 'buy' signals which could support a rally for a few days.

[1] A downward channel which should break
[2] A positive divergence in Rate-of-Change
[3] A pending 'buy' trigger in the MACD
[4] A 'rounding bottom' in Stochastics.

The early July breakdown gap is looking like a nice upside target.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Doji support

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:32:54 PDT

A hectic day of morning weakness followed by afternoon strength. For the Nasdaq there was a sharp rise in volume to register a firm accumulation day. The small hammer with short term stochastics close to oversold suggests a relief rally over the next couple of days. However, 50-day and 20-day MAs exist overhead to add supply. Intermediate to long term stochastics [39,1] switched to a 'sell'.

Small Caps fought their own battle with the 200-day MA providing support on close-to-oversold stochastics. A rally to converging 20-day/50-day MAs will be a cue for shorts to become aggressive.

Ditto for the S&P although in this index all technicals are now negative.

While markets are more likely to bounce in the next day or two there is little to suggest they will gain much more with 20-day and 50-day MAs overhead to add supply. Traders market.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Transports Break

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:31:51 PDT

From an end-of-day perspective, yesterday saw the loss of a possible ascending triangle on a closing break of rising support in the Dow Jones Transport Index. Fib retracements have been included as possible support areas. But this break will only add to the selling pressure in the Dow.

Worringly, no oversold condition in stochastics but there is an opportunity for a sideways pattern to develop using support at 3,000 as a building block.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Market Sentiment: Bearish with Buts

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 02:22:49 PDT

Intermediate market breadth indicators have favoured selling pressure since the start of May and this situation looks destined to continue for probably the rest of the summer. Yesterday saw a possible bearish head-and-shoulder breakdown in the Nasdaq Bullish Percents which adds to the bearish side momentum

However, all of this ignores the huge leap made in the Percentage of Stocks trading above their 200-day MA - an important long term bullish marker. So far, the recent decline hasn't impacted on stocks trading above this key moving average.

With the summer not renowned for its big moves in either direction don't be surprised if the latter part of the year provides an excellent buying opportunity if stocks are able to hold the higher regions of their March-June advance (i.e. stick above their 200-day MA).

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: False Hammers

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 01:47:31 PDT

Markets did well to recover early losses with many closing on what some may consider 'bullish hammers'. However, the position of stochastics suggest markets are not oversold enough to strengthen these candlestick patterns to their true bullish form. In addition, gap downs trump bullish candlesticks.

The Nasdaq did give bulls some reason for cheer with its defense at the 50-day MA:

The Russell also reversed before reaching its 200-day MA:

But the SOX flashed a weak 'spinning top' and lost its 50-day MA in the process; this is bad news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. This looks ready for the 200-day MA.

The problem for bulls is reading too much into the late afternoon rally; a break of Monday's lows could see a series of quick losses emerge.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:59:52 PDT

Are bears gaining the upper hand? Big week ahead for bulls. What had the Stockcharts.com ers had to say about it? As an aside, there is some odd behavior with respect to the hit counts on the public stockcharts.com list; up until the last few weeks the rankings had been remarkably consistent but it's shifting now.

George Zimmerman of GSZimmTrading.com takes top spot. He shows the weekly NYSE Bullish Percent down at its 20-week EMA although this hasn't been an inflexion point in the past. More likely this EMA is used to denote direction of the S&P?

The daily is on a 'sell' trigger (20-day EMA cross)

Peter at Cobrasmarketview has a couple of bullish and bearish signals emerging on the short term window, but neutral signals predominate. Intermediate term nearly all 'sell' signals.

Distribution creep over the past couple of weeks:

Head-and-shoulder bearish pattern becoming more evident for the SPY:

Within the context of a larger bullish head-and-shoulder pattern (that everyone is expecting):

First time I have seen this - Institutional Index:

Richard Lehman's words of wisdom:

7/2 -- [Market is closed on Friday.] This morning's opening decline confirmed the short term turn and solidified the purple as the operative channels. We are now in red minis across the board, which I was able to drawn in already. A sharp down opening on Monday is not likely, but if it occurs, it would mean a far steeper angle down for the red minis. Otherwise, we should see a bounce within the red minis that would set up another shorting opportunity.

We only know at this point that the lower purples are the eventual targets in the bear term, though there is a lot of open room on the charts stemming from the huge move up in March, and things could get more serious here, especially if Q2 earnings come in weak. VIX shot up, as we would expect, and the futures went up also, but not as much, thereby reducing the premium and lessing the bearish case slightly from here.

7/1 -- This morning's surprising up move turned the breaks of blue minis to slope changes instead and dropped back in the afternoon to confirm that. So, the blue minis extended and many of the purple short term downtrend lines ended up being adjusted upward slightly as a result -- but since there was only one point on the lower purple line, that doesn't destroy the integrity of any parallel channels. It simply makes the purples a bit steeper than was originally projected. In my view, the weight of evidence still therefore suggests another down move as imminent.

Joe Reed has noted some 5% 10-yr Corporate Yield deals from the like of MSFT:

GLD approaching oversold levels; breakdown or buying opportunity?

Finally, Ahsan U. Haque of Thesmarttrader has also gone with the bear head-and-shoulder pattern with a Fib target of 846 on the S&P

But with a couple of big gaps to fill from Friday (1-min):

So are we to see some early week strength only to give way later in the week to bears?

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Latest Trading Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:12:36 PDT

I have already posted the Active Trader one (listed again below), but here are a few of the others for the week:

Broker/Trader ($20-25K + Commissions)
Email Marketing Manager FX
Markets and News Editor: Active Trader Magazine
Sr. Helpdesk Technician (FX and Stocks)
Sales Professionals - New Career Opportunity - $100-300K
Futures/Options Broker-Trader
International Institutional Sales Trader
CD Trader $100-125K
Head Execution Trader
Equity Trader Long Island
Prop Trader

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Market Commentary: Odd Divergences

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 15:51:43 PDT

The shortened trading week brought up some odd behavior in some of the indices. The Nasdaq lost a couple of percent on the week but long term stochastics [39,1] actually gained. However, the MACD histogram played to form and continued to (negatively) diverge from its high. The break of 1,759 resistance in the index held.

Long term stochastics [39,1] for the S&P stayed hemmed in by resistance at the mid-line; the head-and-shoulder return down to 800s looks the most likely projection, but even this target feels too obvious.

The Nasdaq 100 had pushed the highest of the indices over the past few weeks, trading around 2006 reaction lows - but this microbreakout is under threat even if longterm stochastics [39,1] gained.

Market Breadth showed a confirmed technical sell in the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA:

The S&P displayed confirmed breadth 'sell' trigger in the Bullish Percents:

To follow the June 'Sell' signal

Shorts will be building in confidence...

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Active Trader Magazine: Markets and News Editor

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:40:35 PDT

Apply for Job

Description

Magazine and Web publisher seeks financial journalist to write and edit trading strategy features and report on trading industry developments for the benefit of our readership of independent investors and traders. Responsibilities: Covering the financial markets and the investment/trading industry beyond the generalities of the mainstream press. Rewriting/editing stories, managing contributing writers and editors, and writing original features about trading and investments (stocks, futures, options, and forex/currencies).

Requirements

At least 3-5 years of journalism/editorial experience, or an equivalent blend of financial market analysis and editorial experience. A writing/editing test will be mandatory for all applicants under consideration. E-mail résumé and writing samples (required) to [Click Here to Email Your Resumé] (include "financial editor" in the subject line). Or, fax to (312) 775-5423. Walk-ins or phone calls will be removed from consideration.

Apply for Job

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Stock Market Commentary: Hello Bears!

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:01:56 PDT

A bad day for large caps saw the Dow slice through its 50-day and 200-day MA with the S&P losing the 50-day MA. Any improvement in the technicals for the S&P were quickly erased. Luckily, volume was not excessive so this may play as nothing more than a once off blip or it could suggest a level of complacency on the part of bulls who have managed to maintain this rally in the face of broad skepticism.

Ironically, the index which looked like it was going to take the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 down, the semiconductor index, had a quiet day. A narrow doji on the 50-day MA didn't change anything and the possibility of further gains are not off the table.

Small Caps also had it rough as the mid-June breakdown could only run alongside former support before it dropped through its 50-day MA:

The July holiday weekend means no trading for Friday so it will be a edgy weekend for bulls. One more day of downside over the next couple of days may end any hope bulls had of challenging May/June highs until probably the end of the year.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Black Gold Rally Done?

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:16:49 PDT

A weakening dollar will keep commodity bugs aflutter but what can it mean for commodity prices; gold and oil in particular? The chart below shows my June 22nd annotations for the EURUSD which are still in play. If the dollar was to weaken another 10% what impact will this have?

Looking at the historical relationship between oil and gold prices any spike into the upper 20s (ie when gold trades at 25-30 times the price of oil) has been a good opportunity to buy oil. This has shown itself well on the recent spike.

Prior to 2000, spike lows in the ratio in the 6-10 range have not been a good time to own either gold or oil.

But the questions the aforementioned chart asks are

[1] Is now the time to sell the oil given the relationship has dropped to the 1997 spike low at 13.50 when oil prices peaked?
[2] Will a further deterioration in the dollar potentially see this ratio fall back to sub-10s (although a weak dollar will boost both oil and gold prices, but would oil benefit more)?
[3] What of the elephant in the room from 2001-2008 when the ratio effectively traded in a tight range of 6.00-15.00 as both oil and gold made tremendous gains - oil in particular?

Whatever the short term implications of a weakening dollar the long term picture for oil may not be so hot. Yes, we live in a very weak economic environment but with considerable inflation pressures down the road. However, it is rare for any asset to emerge from a strong trending period to kick straight into another. Oil is likely to spend the next decade trading in a range probably between $30 and $80 a barrel.

As a finite commodity it has a built-in appreciation level so it has excellent potential for future price growth. It is an ideal asset to have in a retirement account (either as a related stock or ETF) where timing short term appreciation is not the goal.

As a trading instrument any drop into the $30s is a buy irrepsective of economic conditions. Anything pushing $80+ is a good reason to take some profits with a psychological break and hold of $100 probably enough to see it challenge 2008 highs.

Gold is a trickier beast. Given the relationship to oil has never cleared more than 28 times its value one could assume gold has the potential to trade up to $2,240/oz if oil traded at $80. However, weak periods for oil over the past 20 years have not been strong periods for gold. Gold Bugs will probable argue differently but it seems unlikely for gold to get past $1,000 this time around.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Indecision

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:43:58 PDT

The last few days have seen some tight trading with doji or small real bodied candlesticks dominating action across the indices.

One area which saw some bullish strength was the switch in relative strength from Large Caps to Small Caps; this left markets in their most bullish relative strength alignment (Small caps > Tech > Large Caps). This could be the basis for a budding rally but June highs need to be breached soon if momentum is to be maintained.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Jeff Goldblum on Colbert

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 04:20:46 PDT

The Colbert Report

Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c

Jeff Goldblum Will Be Missed

www.colbertnation.com

Colbert Report Full Episodes

Political Humor

Jeff Goldblum

:)

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Transports Lagging

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 03:31:02 PDT

Bulls will have been following the gains in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 with great pleasure, even the Dow managed a piece of the bullish action in recent days. However, Dow Theorists will be concerned by the lack of participation from the Transport Index. If ever there was a trading no-mans land the Transports are in it.

It would take a sustained gain for the Transports to generate a "Golden Cross" and it's hard to see this happening as broader indices struggle to challenge June highs. Bulls can take some comfort from a potential ascending triangle but should the index fall back from its 200-day MA and test its support there isn't much wiggle room should support break.

A 50% trim of the March-June rally could see this challenge 2,800s (or the early April reaction low).

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Tired Rally

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:04:59 PDT

The early collapse in the market had worrying tones but there was no follow through even if volume registered as distribution. The Dow has the greatest interest simply because it's in a support battle at the 50-day and 200-day MAs.

The other index to watch is the semiconductor index; the second indecisive doji after the 'shooting star' with the 20-day MA overhead is suggesting further gains are looking more and more unlikely. It's still holding the 50-day MA but I am liking a test of the 200-day MA before a run on June highs is attempted.

In defense of the markets I thought it was going to be a whole lot worse.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Markent Sentiment: Bull Cross or Bull Trap?

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 04:18:13 PDT

The recent rally has put a little bit of fire into breadth's belly. However, not all breadth indicators took the bait. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is best placed with the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA as the Ultimate Oscillator worked a 'buy' signal from oversold conditions. Whether this evolves into a bull trap or a genuine 'buy' signal remains to be seen but it's a positive at least (and is still a good 5 points away from traditional bull market overbought levels).

I was surprised not to see a stronger technical response for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA. Given we are near the highs of June the indicator shows 30% fewer stocks trading above this key moving average than back at the start of May when it peaked. This is a bad omen and a potential low risk short using June highs as a stop.

Buyer beware...(again)

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Dow Pops Over 200-day MA

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:47:20 PDT

Old news for every other index which are well over their respective 200-day MAs but the Dow managed to fight back to close over its. It's very close to a "Golden Cross" of its own.

Other indices finished neutral with former support playing as resistance; the Russell 2000 been a prime example

It's hard to read too much into typical summer trading. May/June lows are the best line in the sand if you are a bull. No confirmed reason to sell but hard to be a buyer.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:19:25 PDT

Will the markets break? Another week where early week weakness was reversed. What had the stockchart.com ers to say about it all?

Anthony Caldaro of the Elliott Wave lives on has labelled a '1' / '2' of a new 5-wave down. '2' for the S&P is just over 930. It's an alternate count to his original ABC correction (which is still labelled) but it's worth keeping track of.

Richard Lehman has gone with new short term upchannels - but sees the broader downtrend taking control over the next few days.

6/27 -- Laggards like financials (XLF) and China shares(FXI)have now finally broken into new upward blue mini channels, joining the others. The small caps have had the greater pop upward, but all the indexes are showing this pop to be narrow and somewhat steep, suggesting a brief life. I am still expecting that they will peak out with a few days at levels below the highs of June 11th, forming peaks that will determine the angle of the larger descending channels here.

6/25 -- The broader indexes all broke clearly upward through the purple downtrends today. With that, we are in new blue upward minis and I now see the bigger picture developing. In my view, the purple downchannels were really just minis, as I suggested early on. That means the purples formed the first leg down of a larger downchannel and the current upmove is leg #2 up. This new upleg is narrow and will not likely last more than another few days or so. I've drawn this larger downward scenario on the DJIA and Nasdaq hourly charts.

This scenario would work well with expected end of quarter window dressing and is supported by the substantial drop in VIX today. A continuation of the downtrend beginning near month end would be supported by the even larger premium now in VIX futures for July.

6/24 -- The bounces continued, at least up until the Fed announcement, at which time a 'sell on the news' party ensued. Some indexes reached the upper lines and some only got close, but the result was that everything held trend in the purple channels. VIX declined, even with the sell-off, so maybe that is a sign that a more lasting turn upward is close at hand.

Joe Reed has his weekly summary:

Didn't notice this comment of his tucked under Joe's own EWT count

6-18-09 Update: But don't get carried away with one chart. Here's a 2nd Elliot wave opinion.Another famous 'Elliot Waver', Neely, says the March-June rally is in the final leg of the correction and now ending. The Bear Market will resume sending the S&P DOWN FIFTY-PERCENT in the next 6 mos to well below 500, Yipes! We shall see, huh? In the meantime, just be careful out there.

Hurricane Season has begun.

Solid dollar chart here:

Significant bearish divergence in the Ultimate Oscillator of the SPY:

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview shows neutral short term conditions with bearish intermediate conditions.

Rally on fumes? Note lack of either distribution or accumulation days.

I like the idea for a complex head-and-shoulder pattern - this would translate into a boring summer and potentially torrid September on:

Gaps to fill:

Finally, Ted Burge of Tedlines.com has a point-n-figure chart showing a bearish target of 7,700:

Grim viewing all round but contrarians will see this as good news (the same good news which has kept this rally going since it started in March and ran into its first resistance level in April).

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Latest Trading Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 14:02:44 PDT

Another spread of jobs from entry level up:

Fixed Income Trader
Financial Engineer Trader
Entry Level Trader
International Institutional Sales Trader
Trader Desktop Support
Equity Trader
Commodity Trader
Institutional Equity Sales Trader: $100-150K

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Market Commentary: Contrary To Action In the Indices, Breadth Weakened Further

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 15:22:31 PDT

On a week-to-week basis there wasn't much going down for the indices. The Nasdaq was able to make a positive backtest of 1,759 support, finishing the week a couple points shy of its high.

The Russell 2000 lost weekly support of 517 (just); although the doji may be seen as bullish it must be countered by the neutral long term and overbought short term momentum.

The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA for both the Nasdaq and S&P collapsed; fewer stocks holding the rally mean it won't last forever. Without broader participation the rally has the same chance of success as the 2006 divergence brought about in 2007.

It should be added the technicals for the Percentage of S&P stocks above the 50-day MA switched negative to 'sell'.

The longer divergences play between parent indices and supporting breadth the likelihood the next move down will be swift and hard. Based on some of my earlier analysis a big move down sounds too expected by the market - and therefore unlikely. But I don't know how a continued rally can hold in the face of growing breadth weakness?

May lows in the daily will probably be a significant line in the sand for bulls locking in profits from positions taken earlier during the year.

Last chance to enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.