In 2009, Menlo High School shortstop Kenny Diekroeger was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the second round and was reportedly offered just over a million dollars to join the organization. He chose Stanford and stayed close to his Northern California roots. Most players, when faced with a similar choice, follow suit.

Diekroeger has no regrets. And he thinks this season has been just fine, too. Talk to the shortstop for even a few minutes, and you’ll realize he’s got an even-keeled outlook.

“Maybe it’s too bad that I didn’t get to see a different part of the country,” he admits, but we agreed he has a lot of life left to live, and it’s nice to do laundry at home, even if “that doesn’t actually happen as often you might think.” This Burlingame, Woodside and Menlo Park raised local felt that “it’s hard to turn down Stanford,” and “this place is so nice” and that he’s really enjoyed his time on the farm.

When asked about the season, he inevitably turns to the team. “We’ve had a great team, we’re competing for a top spot in the playoffs. We’re trying to host regionals and hopefully super-regionals.”

But how about your season in particular — your season, you personally. “It’s been good to help this team win. We were the number two team in the country for a while. On Friday night, we played in front of 4,000 people on Fireworks night. Being able to give them a good experience, that’s why we play the game.”

Okay, but you must have some thoughts about the position switch. From shortstop to second base, how did that go? “It was a little different than short, but they are pretty similar. … I put in the work and I felt pretty comfortable there. It was unfortunate that Lonnie [Kauppila] went down the injury that he did, but now I’m back to short. They are pretty similar positions, it wasn’t a hard transition to make.”

Diekroeger’s power is a little up this year (.401 SLG vs .365), has he changed his swing? “You always feel different, so you have to keep making tweaks to your swing. If you look at my swing now vs a few years ago, it is a little different. But I feel like that would be the case with a lot of people. I just do what I need to do at the time to make the right adjustment. When it comes to your swing, you have to have a short-term approach. You gotta do what you gotta do.”

After talking to Dean Stotz about the advanced stats that the pitchers deal with, it made sense to wonder what the hitters saw. “We don’t really see too much of that,” Diekroeger said. He admitted that he’d seen what the pros have and that it “was really cool stuff.” The Stanford student in the shortstop came out for a second — “I’m a stats guy myself,” he said and admitted he’d enjoyed FanGraphs before. But there’s a limit to it all.

“I’ve taken a lot of advanced stat courses, and I’m completely for all the advancements in that part of the game. But at the same time, baseball is just a weird game in that you don’t want to overthink that kind of stuff. If you’re a hitter, you can only look at so much information to improve yourself. At the end of the day, you have to be able to go up there and see the ball well and hit it hard. I know that sounds really simple, but it’s easy — especially with us being Stanford people and with my background in stats — it’s easy to overthink this game.” — Kenny Diekreoger

With Cal coming up in the final series of the year, conversation drifted to the modern state of the rivalry between Stanford and Berkeley. Diekroeger, like teammate Stephen Piscotty before him, admitted that he’s played with many Cal guys over the summer. And longer than that even — “I’ve played with Tony [Renda] a lot, all the way back to Little League. We’ve worked out together too.” But there’s a limit to the friendship — “When we’re out here playing, we’ve got Stanford jerseys on and they’ve got Cal jerseys on and we have to do our best to maintain that rivalry and bring home a victory.” In the end, he said that “There’s no better team to close out the regular season with, especially at home. We always have great games with them, so it will be fun.”

What about beyond that? Has he made a decision about entering the draft at the end of the season? “We’ll see what happens, I haven’t made any decisions yet,” laughed the shortstop with a steady head on his broad shoulders.

Some prognosticator I am. Thank goodness for Carlos Beltran — right, St. Louis?

After just 33 games, Beltran has already posted 2.2 wins above replacement, and although he has played decent on defense, his WAR total is almost entirely accounted for with his bat. His slash line stands at .298/.406/.653 with 13 home runs and 32 RBI. He is among the league leaders in WAR, and is just 0.1 WAR behind Matt Kemp. And what’s particularly notable about the current WAR leaders is the potential for regression:

You could say that Beltran is the unluckiest of the current leaders with a BABIP that at least somewhat resembles his career rate of .303 (his expected BABIP based on hit trajectory stands at .282, in part due to a fairly low line-drive rate). Certainly all of these players are off to pretty tremendous starts, but Beltran’s performance so far seems the most likely to be sustainable — even if it probably isn’t.

Looking at Beltran’s career wRC+, he has typically been a pretty steady performer over the course of the season, but also remember that he tends to start hot and finish hot:

In his 15-year career, Beltran has rarely began a season quite this sizzling. There’s just one year in which he started off better in terms of his overall triple slash, and that was in 2009 when he entered mid-May batting .370/.467/.583 with six home runs and 25 RBI in 33 games. But with a BABIP of .410 and fewer than than half the home runs he currently has, you’d have to consider 2012 to be the most productive start  of his career.

Six years ago was arguably his most impressive season with the bat, going .275/.388/.594 with 41 home runs, 116 RBI and 127 runs scored. In 2006, he was batting .278/.417/.644 with nine home runs and 22 RBI through May 13 (but he had played just 26 games). His BABIP in those games was only .246, so it wasn’t inflated by any lucky hops either. There are actually a lot of parallels early on with that 2006 season. That year was the last time he was hitting more than 45% fly balls, seeing fewer first pitch strikes and walking at a rate over 14% — not to mention sporting an ISO over .300.

There aren’t any hulking, intimidating smoking guns when trying to decipher what — if anything — has changed in 2012. But there are some subtle differences. In general, Beltran is seeing more two-seam fastballs and more sliders. The sliders have given him a touch of trouble so far, but now the two-seamers. Pitchers seem to be trying to work the two-seam fastball in and down on him, but he’s rarely offered at it if it isn’t over the plate. He has swung and missed less than 4% of the time at the two seam fastball and he’s hit two for home runs.

Overall, Beltran is seeing fewer first pitch strikes and fewer balls in the strike zone than any other time in his career. The league average for first-pitch strikes is 59.2%; he’s seeing first-pitch strikes 48.3% of the time. The percentage of balls in the zone is down to 40.4%, versus a 45.6% league average. Concomitantly, his walk rate is at the highest mark since — you guessed it — 2006. And despite this safety dance that pitchers are playing with him, Beltran’s contact rate has remained at a healthy 90%, which is actually a tick above his career average.

Cognizant of this or not, Beltran seems to be taking this careful approach and using it to his advantage. After the count has gone 1-0, Beltran has hit nine of his 13 home runs (56 at bats). No, he’s not likely to maintain a 32% HR/FB rate, but it’s notable to point out that his home runs haven’t necessarily come off of scrubs. Ian Kennedy, Tommy Hanson, Johnny Venters, Mike Minor, Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto and Yovanni Gallardo account for the majority of his long balls. And the park really hasn’t been to his advantage, either: seven of his 13 home runs have come at Busch Stadium, three at Chase Field, two at Miller Park and one at Great American Ballpark. Mock the shot at Great American if you like, but the the three at Chase averaged 443 feet — including this one:

Could Beltran repeat his monstrous 2006? That largely depends on his ability to stay on the field — and considering he’s missing some time right now with an achy knee, that seems unlikely. But that’s really not the thing that makes this so amazing, and really, what makes me love baseball so much. That’s the the fact that here’s Carlos Beltran, playing in a pitchers park at age 35, when we’re supposed to be seeing strong evidence of a decline, and what we’re getting treated to is some of his best at bats of his career. Let’s hope the trainers in St. Louis manage to squeeze 600 plate appearances out of him.

At the beginning of March, we released the results of our television broadcaster rankings — itself the product of reader crowdsourcing that had started in late November. Since then, FanGraphs has asked readers to rate the radio broadcast teams (on a scale of 1-5 for charisma, analysis, and then overall) for all 30 major-league clubs — with the intention, ultimately, of determining which broadcasts might best reflect the sorts of inquiry and analysis performed here at the site.

Below are the 20th- through 11th-ranked radio broadcast teams, per the FanGraphs readership.

But first, three notes:
• Teams are ranked in ascending order of Overall rating. Overall ratings are not merely averages of Charisma and Analysis.
• I’ve attempted to choose reader comments that are either (a) illustrative of the team’s place in the rankings or (b) conspicuously amusing.
• A complete table of ratings and ballots cast will appear in these pages Friday.

20. Kansas City Royals
Broadcasters: Denny Matthews and Bob Davis
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.2, 3.1, 3.4

Three Reader Comments
• “Why shold I try to describe Denny Matthews, when I can let Bill James do it for me? ‘His voice has a pleasant timbre which suggests a cheerful occasion. His inflection varies naturally so it’s neither falsely enthusiastic nor boring. He has a dry, understated humor that drifts through much of his audience undetected. One cannot learn these things at a microphone; they are given.’”
• “Listened to them when taking a break from the Jays broadcast… They were a little dull, but I assume an 11-game losing streak will do that.”
• “Matthews sounds like a gruffer Sean Connery without the Scottish accent.”

Notes
Both the television and radio teams for the Royals were restructured over the offseason*, and the result seems to be that Matthews, Steve Physioc, and Ryan Lefebvre will receive the majority of time on radio. Among respondents, there appears to be above-average enthusiasm for Matthews. Finding a suitable partner for him seems to’ve been the problem.

*Credit to reader Brian for the alert.

19. Colorado Rockies
Broadcasters: Jack Corrigan and Jerry Schemmel
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.2, 3.4, 3.5

Three Reader Comments
• “Still seems like the Rockies are still an expansion team when you listen to their broadcasts given the way these guys dumb it down as if speaking to an audience that is new to baseball.”
• “Like their employer, Corrigan and Schemmel emphsaize heart and the sacrifice bunt over statistical analysis.”
• “The Rockies have radio broadcasters?!?”

Notes
A number of respondents note that Schemmel has only recently begun calling baseball games, after serving as the radio voice of the Denver Nuggets (from 1992 to 2009) and that, while perhaps still above average, he has shown an improved (and improving) feel for the pace of baseball.

18. Cincinnati Reds
Broadcasters: Marty Brennaman and Jeff Brantley
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.7, 3.3, 3.6

Three Reader Comments
• “I’m not sure which is worse: when Marty ignores the action on the field to talk about his golf game or dinner plans, or when the game occasionally attracts his attention and he treats us to withering criticism of players regardless of context or basic human compassion.”
• “Marty Brennaman… views the proceedings through exactly the same prism he did in the 1970s. If he were a doctor, he’d still be using leeches. Still, his old school approach would be fine if he weren’t such an angry man.”
• “Brantley is most adept at analyzing a plate of BBQ ribs and a bowl of ice cream (as listeners know come up way too often), but he’s also pretty good at analyzing baseball, especially pitchers.”

Notes
The uniformity of the comments regarding Brennaman and Brantley is notable. Most respondents regard Brennaman’s play-by-skills — both in terms of his voice and also capacity for narrating play — as impressive, but note that he is not necessarily at peace with the world and the people in it. Brantley appears to be playful in the way a dad is playful — in that he’s endearing but likely to embarrass you in public.

17. Arizona Diamondbacks
Broadcasters: Greg Schulte and Tom Candiotti
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.5, 3.8, 3.7

Two Reader Comments
• “Schulte has a great voice and doesn’t get in the way of the game. He and Candiotti have good chemistry and create a good vibe. Pleasant to listen to.”
• “Overall they have a nice rapport, fairly understated, which is a nice change of pace from Mark ‘THAT’S A BIG BOY!’ Grace… on the TV side.”

Notes
Judging by the grade and lack of votes or comments received (just 24 and two, respectively), Schulte and Candiotti appear to be what they are: the quietly competent broadcaster team for a club (i.e. the Diamondbacks) that lacks a particularly large or devoted fanbase.

16. New York Mets
Broadcasters: Howie Rose and Wayne Hagin
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.7, 3.8, 3.8

Three Reader Comments
• “Here, Carson, I will sum up all the comments you will get: Howie is great, Wayne is terrible.”
• “God help anyone who’s got jury duty during any trial where Wayne Hagin is a material witness.”
• “One of my favorite moments last year was when the team was in San Fran and Hagin was giving an excruciating breakdown of the California highways connecting the major cities. Howie, clearly aware that Wayne was boring the hell out of everyone, cuts in towards the end with a sarcastic, ‘Thank you Vasco De Gama!’”

Notes
For 2012, Hagin has been replaced on the radio side by Josh Lewin, who worked as a television broadcaster with the Rangers from 2002 to 2010 and is known (I think, at least) to be both knowledgable and candid. The pairing of Lewin with Rose should receive higher scores than Hagin and Rose, as the latter is universally beloved, it seems.

15. Baltimore Orioles
Broadcasters: Joe Angel and Fred Manfra
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.9, 3.3, 3.9

Three Reader Comments
• “Like a very comfortable, but rather plain, shoe. Joe and Fred both have good voices, offer few frills (Angel’s home-run call notwithstanding), and provide decent if hardly mind-blowing analysis. Sometimes you’ll want more flair, but you can walk a long way with these guys.”
• “Don’t get into a lot of advanced stats, and they do tend to let the game breathe — not like Vin Scully, but still not cramming every second of air-time, which I do appreciate.”
• “I’ve always loved how Joe Angel calls Manfra ‘big boy.’”

Notes
“Precisely average,” appears to be the most apt description.

14. Oakland A’s
Broadcasters: Ken Korach and Vince Cotroneo
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 3.9, 3.9, 4.0

Three Reader Comments
• “Cotroneo has grown on me since coming in after the death of the irreplaceable Bill King. The real star of the show is Korach, who is the perfect balance of steady and excitable.”
• “Vince… puts a ton of effort into analytic research, consistently providing top-notch statistical analysis.”
• “Booming stentorian voices to match the great concrete of the Coliseum.”

Notes
A number of respondents make reference, with great affection, to the late Bill King, who served as the team’s radio voice from 1981 until his death in 2005. Those same respondents generally note that, while lacking King’s appeal, the team of Cotroneo and (especially) Korach is still entirely competent.

13. Detroit Tigers
Broadcasters: Dan Dickerson and Jim Price
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 4.0, 3.7, 4.1

Three Reader Comments
• “A few years back Dickerson would directly reference things like UZR with regularity. He’s gone away from that a bit, but you can tell he keeps up with the baseball world beyond the booth. He’s also got a pleasant delivery. Outside of his home run call, he stays generally in the restrained tones I prefer from adult males. Jim Price is a buffoon, but his particular buffoonery is good-natured, and easily ignored. I imagine him eating chips, and smiling at his own good fortune whenever he isn’t speaking, and that makes me enjoy him more.”
• “Dan Dickerson is refreshingly SABR aware, but he doesn’t drop too many acronyms during the broadcast. See an interview here.”
• “I… wish they would just replay old Ernie Harwell broadcasts, even if it wouldn’t exactly match up with the game that was occurring at the time.”

Notes
The comments regarding Dickerson are almost uniformly positive, citing both his awareness of statistical analysis and capacity to match his voice (in terms of excitement, drama, etc) to the situation as virtues. Opinions on Price are mixed, and he probably has more detractors than fervent supporters.

12. Boston Red Sox
Broadcasters: Joe Castiglione and Dave O’Brien
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 4.0, 3.6, 4.1

Three Reader Comments
• “Castiglione can get a bit nasal when excited, but he’s got a fantastic feel for the game and has been around it forever, and he knows when to let the ambient sounds do the talking. O’Brien is a great complement, although I think he sometimes fails to give enough description (particularly of pitch types), which may be a legacy of his having gotten his start as a TV broadcaster.”
• “Unlike other announcers, they will get excited when something big happens, regardless of whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing for the Red Sox.”
• “That ball is way back, deep to left! It’s gonna come down on Landsdowne Street! Better call 1-800-54-GIANT!”

Notes
A criticism that I was surprised not to find among reader comments is that O’Brien, while possessing an excellent voice for radio, might actually suffer for his professionalism. The joy of Castiglione — in this author’s opinion, at least — is that he’s basically a human manifestation of New England; O’Brien, despite having been born in Quincy and growing up in New Hampshire, seems strangely devoid of any regional signifiers.

11. Chicago Cubs
Broadcasters: Pat Hughes and Keith Moreland
Ratings (Charisma/Analysis/Overall): 4.2, 3.7, 4.2

Three Reader Comments
• “Pat Hughes is excellent and a treat to listen to. He does an excellent job visually describing the game between the play-by-play. Keith Moreland is adequate.”
• “Pat Hughes is a GREAT play-by-play guy. Super dry sense of humor, very descriptive, and able to carry on meaningless conversations while still calling every aspect of the game (important for Cubs’ many large losses).”
• “Cubs broadcasts are great, whether on radio or TV. Either way, you will learn the color of the opposing team’s trousers.”

Notes
The reponses to this team bear a great deal of resemblence to those for the Tigers radio team above — i.e. overwhelming positive reviews for the play-by-play broadcaster (in this case, Hughes) accompanied by less enthusiastic feelings for the color guy (Moreland).

Melky Cabrera is at it again. After a disastrous 2010 season in Atlanta, the Melk-Man (BOOM! It’s like MILK-Man, get it?) bounced back for a career year with the Royals in 2011. He was a good bet to regress, right? The Royals, who had Lorenzo Cain on deck, traded Cabrera to the Giants for much-needed pitching help in the form of one Jonathan Sanchez. So, how’s that going? It actually seemed like a fair need-for-need trade at the time, but while Sanchez has crashed, burned, and gotten hurt in Kansas City, Cabrera has been on fire in San Francisco. He’s been so good so far this season, that the team is reportedly already considering an in-season extension. Is Cabrera a different player than he used to be? How much would a reasonable extension be?

Having brought in Angel Pagan (also hitting decently so far, by the way), the Giants smartly moved Cabrera to the outfield corners, mostly left. While his advanced defensive metrics saw him as bad in center in 2011 rather than mind-bendingly awful, his past performance and the eye test saw him as much worse than that, so it is a pretty safe bet so see him as something an average-fielding corner outfielder at this point in his career.

The big thing that is sparking all this extension talk around Melky is his bat, of course. His 118 wRC+ (.305/.339/.470) line in 2011 restored some confidence, but even aside from the usual BABIP comments, reasonable people taking past performance and regression to the mean into account thought he would take a step back in 2012. That step back may still be coming (after all, it’s only mid-May), but so far, Melky’s line: .333/.380/.487 (139 wRC+). So how “real” is Melky at the moment? What is his true talent?

The easiest, and, honestly, probably the best thing to do is just to look at something like ZiPS RoS projections, since it does all the necessary weighting, regressing, and adjusting of each component for us. That system currently has Melky hitting .292/.337/.442 (.338 wOBA) for the rest of the season. But let’s briefly take a closer look at some components to see if Melky has made any changes that might indicate a big difference.

The main things that sparked Cabrera’s 2011 “breakout” (a term of which I am suspicious) were an increase in his home run rate and his average on balls in play. When breaking down his rates more carefully, one sees basically the same result. The only other obvious change between pre-2011 Melky and 2011 Melky was a lower walk rate.

In 2012, Cabrera has kept his BABIP high. In fact, it is much higher than in 2011.. His .332 BABIP in 2011 might have seemed a bit high, but that is not (without looking at anything else) utterly unsustainable, especially in parks like Kansas City’s and San Francisco’s, which generally increase hit rates on balls in play relative to league average. Cabrera’s .375 BABIP in 2012 probably is going to come down at some point, however (whether this season or the next), it’s just much higher than almost anyone can sustain these days, particularly a player with past performance in that respect like Melky’s. I do not think one has to get mired in the Melky’s batted ball profile to see that.

As far as his power goes, while Melky’s overall 2012 ISO (.153) is pretty close to 2011′s (.164), in reality his power has probably regressed more than that. Part of that might be the park change, but one should be careful not to over-emphasize the differences. Since park factors are normalized against AL/NL league average, it is tough to compare his 2012 and 2011 home parks, but both parks generally have the profile of increasing htis o nballs in play at the expense of home runs. While Cabrera’s big ISO jump in 2011 was mostly due to a career-high rate of home runs on contact, that rate has dropped dramatically so far this season. His rate of getting extra-base hits ([3B + 2B]/[H-HR]) is almost exactly the same this season as in 2011 and 2010. The main reason Cabrera’s isolated power his still up is that he has already hit 4 triples this season after hitting 5 in all of 2012.

While the Giants’ home park does increase numbers of triples, so did Kauffman, and while they are nice, getting one’s power through extra-base-hits in play stabilizes less quickly than home run numbers. Now, it is, of course, “too early” to pinpoint anything in 2012 as having special significance relative to past performance, even those numbers which have begun to stabilize. In the case of Cabrera’s power, it is simply interesting to note that he is probably regressing a bit after his 2011 surge.

[While we should be careful assigning significant to the following given that even 18 2011 home runs is a small sample, it is interesting to note that according to Hit Tracker, the average speed of Melky's home runs the last few years has remained remarkably stable over the last few years. In 2012: 105.2; 2011: 105; 2010: 106.3; 2009: 104.7.]

On the positive side of things, Cabrera’s walk rate (a stat that stabilizes relatively quickly) seems to have come back up after a big drop in 2011. This is even more evident if one removes he intentional walks and hit by pitches from the seasonal calculations. It still is not a great walk rate, but it is better than last season’s, and helps a great deal not to have his on-base abilities not completely wrapped up on his unsustainable BABIP. While the best predictors of walk and strikeout rates (also remarkably stable for Melky over the years) for hitters are walk and strikeout rates, if one wants to look elsewhere, there is not much to go on. While Melky’s percentage of swings outside the zone has come down a bit, in my limited research, overall swing percentage correlates better with walk rate than O-Swing. In any case, so far this year Cabrera seems to be one more case supporting the hypothesis that veteran players’ walk rate tend to “rebound” after a down season.

Overall, though, it seems that there is little reason to think that Melky is an all-new hitter. He maybe have changed something in his swing the last couple season to increase his balls in play, but he is extremely unlikely to be anything like a .375 BABIP true-talent hitter. His triples so far this season have masked his power regressing back from his 2011 surge. His walk rate has rebounded so far, but overall, there is little to indicate that we should put aside a projection like ZiPS.

Assuming something like average defense in left field, the ZiPS ROS projection, and leaving a bit of margin for error, Melky’s current true talent projects somewhere between two and three wins above replacement. Assuming the Giants are looking at an extension that would start after the season, one would want to account for aging and attrition, so something closer to two wins sound about right.

That is not the “superstar” level that some have bizarrely assigned to him (and while he was good last year, it is crazy to say that he was a superstar last year, even if one thinks he was okay defensively). However, it is useful, especially to a team trying to contend (as the Giants are) and with no other good options lurking in the outfield (assuming Brandon Belt finally gets his chance at first; Gary Brown will be a center fielder when/if he arrives) in the near future.

Cabrera is a stopgap to be sure, and I cannot speak to the concerns about the way he is rumored to have let his conditioning go in 2010. The Giants certainly should not give Melky “Carlos Beltran money,” but while (most of) their young pitching is around, paying Melky could make sense. They should not go too many years. At the current market level and Melkey’s projected “true talent,” one might reasonably make a case for him getting something like two years and $20 million (or 3/25) from the Giants.

That is probably on the high side. While 2/20 works out on the spreadsheet, other decent stopgap outfielders have been getting much less than that. Cabrera’s Former teammate Jeff Francoeur (who also had a career year in 2011) got two years and $13.5 million from the Royals. A good argument could be made that Francoeur is inferior to Melky, but David DeJesus, probably better than Frenchy or Melky (or, despite his down 2011, at least as good once one includes fielding) got only two years and only $10 million. Melky might take more than that, but it is also the case that the price could come down if the Giants waited to get serious with negotiations until a bit later this summer when Melky is likely to have cooled down.

Even suggesting 2/20 for a guy like with a history like Cabrera’s is scary — even blogging about it makes me leery of people coming back and laughing if Melky reverts to his 2010 form. But even if the Giants cannot sign Melky for less than that, the fact is that free agents (as Cabrera will be) are expensive commodities, especially these days when we are increasingly used to looking at contrafts signed by youngsters while still under team control. In any case, even 2/20 for Cabrera it would would be far the craziest thing the Giants have ever done. They did the same for Aubrey Huff, why not try and Melk it one more time (hey-o!)?

On the other hand, Melky Cabrerea does not turn 28 until August — pretty young for a Giants free agent position player signing. Randy Winn is probably available, though.

A little more than a year later, we’re all left wondering what went wrong.

At age 23, Brown got his second extended look in the big leagues starting in May of 2011. Though some skill at the plate was evident, he ultimately underwhelmed with a .322 wOBA in 210 plate appearances. The league-average wOBA in right field was .334 in 2011, and the struggles on defense could not justify allowing him to work through his growing pains at the big league level — at least, not for a team with legitimate World Series aspirations.

Philadelphia sent Brown back down to Triple-A in August. The only other big league action he saw last season was a brief call-up in late September once rosters expanded and the Triple-A season had already been completed.

His lack of success was largely attributed to the quickening of the game at the major league level.

“The big leagues moves fast,” manager Charlie Manuel said. “A lot of times when you come up there the game is quick. They catch a lot of balls you hit, things like that. Once you get used to it, if you’ve got the talent and you’ve got the fight and desire and the work ethic and everything. Then you’ll improve.”

In brief, Brown should have been expected to struggle in his transition to baseball at the highest level. Scouts, coaches, and players always talk about making adjustments. Brown simply had not made those adjustments yet at the major league, but very few people doubted the adjustments would happen and success would follow.

Fast forward to this season, and we find the young man hitting a paltry .247/.290/.355 through 26 games with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. That was not supposed to happen. The Phillies wanted Brown to begin the season in Triple-A to build confidence and rediscover the success he enjoyed in Triple-A back in 2010, when he hit .346/.390/.561 in 28 games as a 22-year-old. It was not supposed to be a deepening of the struggles that plagued him last season at the big league level.

His .286 wOBA in Triple-A has fans and scouts absolutely miffed. When asked what caused the precipitous drop-off in production from Domonic Brown, one minor league scout said, “I don’t think anyone knows for sure.” Furthermore, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, who speaks with scouts every day regarding minor league players, said, “I think I’ve passed 100 on the number of theories I’ve heard.”

One possible explanation for his struggles revolves around swing changes that the Phillies organization attempted to employ during spring training back in 2011. The organization wanted Brown to lower his hands at address to help shorten the swing and provide greater stability throughout his swinging motion. This video from early 2011 does a nice job illustrating the specific change and how it related to his timing at the plate.

The swing change, however, did not improve his success. In fact, he felt so uncomfortable with the lowering of his hands that he abandoned the swing change all together. It is conceivable that the differing placement of his hands has ultimately disturbed his timing at the plate, and he is still working to rediscover the comfort he possessed in his swing throughout his minor league career prior to the 2011 season.

Another theory that some have put forward stems from his myriad of hand injuries. Since the 2009 season, Domonic Brown has suffered four injuries to his right hand. He has broken his hamate bone, which required surgery, sprained his thumb twice, and broken his pinkie finger. Perhaps the hand injuries — specifically the three since 2011 spring training — have been a major culprit in his power decline, a decline that has culminated in a 2012 season with no home runs thus far. He would not be the first hitter to experience such issues after multiple hand injuries.

In addition, not only has Brown played with swing changes and suffered multiple injuries in his right hand, he also been bounced around the organization and the playing field. He yo-yoed from Triple-A to the majors in both 2010 and 2011. His Triple-A manager, Ryne Sandberg, said he dealt with a “rollercoaster season” in 2011. He needed stability. This season, the organization switched him to left field. Though that may sound insignificant because it is largely considered to be one of the easiest defensive positions, Domonic Brown struggled to learn routes and jumps in right field. Now, he must start over and learn an entirely new position, while still trying to straighten out his issues at the plate.

It is once again conceivable that the constant change throughout the past couple of years has ultimately fueled his decline.

The ultimate reasoning behind his decline at the plate may puzzle scouts, but the organization desperately hopes that he snaps out of it because he remains a focal point in the Phillies’ future plans for the outfield. Center fielder Shane Victorino is slated to become a free agent following this season, right fielder Hunter Pence will become a free agent following the 2013 season, and left field is currently handled by a committee of fringe players in John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, and Juan Pierre. Opportunities for ample playing time should be numerous for Brown. He simply needs to prove deserving of those opportunities.

Despite the struggles for Domonic Brown, the same scout mentioned earlier offered words of encouragement, “The tools are still there, though. There’s still hope.”

Who? Bond has been kicking around the minor leagues since being selected by the Giants out of a Missouri high school in the 24th round of the 2007 draft. A pure hitter, he hit well over .300 during his three seasons in A-ball and double-A. He was then a triple-A all-star in 2010 before missing almost the entire year in ’11 due to injury. Healthy once again, Bond is hitting .385 with 10 walks and just nine strikeouts in 24 games. He’s always controlled the strike zone exceptionally well but has little-to-no power and doesn’t run much. As such, his offensive profile is limited because his value is tied solely to his ability to hit for average. He’s also an average fielder and has seen some time at second base, third base and left field. Bond, 26, could make an excellent 25th man – a switch-hitting pinch hitter and occasional infield back-up – for a National League club. As we’ve seen with the early 2012 success of pinch hitters like Chad Tracy and Mike Baxter, these players can be quite valuable.

Barret Loux, RHP, Texas Rangers
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Heading Upward

The Texas organization does an amazing job of identifying amateur talent through the draft and while scouting the international free agent market. It scored once again – this time with former first round pick Loux who was the sixth overall pick by Arizona during the 2010 draft. He failed to come to terms with the Diamondbacks when a shoulder injury caused the organization to back away, not wanting to risk $2+ million on him. Then declared a free agent, Texas stepped in and signed him. Assigned to high-A in 2011, Loux pitched very well in high-A ball with 127 Ks in 109.0 innings. Moved up to double-A in 2012, the right-hander has been equally as good with 42 whiffs in 43.1 innings. He’s produced an above-average ground-ball rate but he’s already given up five home runs after allowing just six last year. If his health holds up (He also had elbow sugery in college for bone chips), Loux could develop into a solid No. 3 starter; he does have a relatively low stress delivery, which works in his favor.

Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Exploding

There are not many hitters in all of baseball that are as hot as Myers. In his past 10 games the 21-year-old outfielder is hitting .371 with six home runs, 11 runs scored and 10 RBI. Repeating double-A for the second straight year, the former third round draft pick is hitting .343 with 13 home runs (25 extra base hits) in 35 games. Myers is one homer shy of his career high for a season (447 A-ball at-bats in ’10) and he hit just eight in 354 at-bats last year. The former catcher, who projects as a right-fielder, has been playing center field this season and recently spent some time at the hot corner to increase his versatility. With some hard work the athletic player could probably become at least average at the position but Kansas City already has a potentially-plus young defender at the hot corner at the MLB level in Mike Moustakas. Myers was promoted to triple-A today.

Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Current Level: A-
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 9th
Current Value: Looking Up

The 36th overall pick of the 2011 draft, Owens was aggressively assigned to full season ball in ’12 despite the fact he signed too late to play pro ball last year. The lefty has shown very promising stuff with 47 Ks in 29.1 innings of work. In his last three starts he hasn’t allowed an earned run and he’s given up just five hits with 18 whiffs in 15.0 innings. His control has been a big issue, though, with 21 walks. Standing 6’6”, it could take some time before Owens’ mechanics click. His stuff has started to show a noticeable improvement and if it continues he could become a solid big league starter. With fellow draft picks Matt Barnes and Jackie Bradley also playing well the 2011 draft return in turning out to be outstanding for the Red Sox.

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Current Level: A-
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 10th
Current Value: Looking Up

Baltimore’s Dylan Bundy has dominated low-A ball at the age of 19. Toronto’s Sanchez is in a similar situation at the same age. He’s given up just nine hits and two earned runs in 27.0 innings of work. He’s also whiffing hitters at a strong rate (33) and batters are having a heck of a time getting lifting the ball against Sanchez who has produced an exceptional ground-ball rate. The right-hander, and 34th overall pick of the 2010 draft, features a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a very promising curveball. Unlike Bundy, who is 19 and in his first full season, Sanchez entered pro ball at 17 and is now in his third year – first in full season ball. The organization has to be very excited about this youngster (Hat tip to Keith Law for identifying Sanchez’ breakout potential during his pre-season Top100/Top 10 lists).

1. Featured Game: Oakland at Texas, 20:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Oakland at Texas, 20:05 ET
With Regard to Japanese Sensation Yu Darvish
With regard to Japanese sensation Yu Darvish, who starts tonight for Texas, here’s his line so far this season: 44.1 IP, 25.9% K, 12.2% BB, 47.0% GB, 3.64 SIERA, 88 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR.

Regarding Darvish’s Line So Far, What’s Notable
What’s notable about Darvish’s line so far this season is the degree to which it’s improved since his first three starts. Consider this table, for instance:

Starts	IP	K%	BB%	GB%	xFIP
First 3	17.2	16.3%	15.0%	42.1%	4.89
Last 4	26.2	33.3%	10.0%	51.7%	2.29

A Thing That Was Useful in the Manufacture of That Table
A thing that was useful in the manufacture of that table was the updated game-logs page added to the site on Tuesday by FanGraphs founder and darkest of overlords David Appelman.

Another Thing That Was Useful in the Manufacture of That Table
Another thing that was useful in the manufacture of that table was the Guts page (which contains the FIP constant, for example) that was added to the site towards the end of April — also by my handsome and virile employer David Appelman.

Why the Author Mentioned Those Recent Additions to the Site
As a service to the public, one imagines.

Why Else the Author Mentioned Those Additions
To greater promote his own “job security,” one imagines.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast
Per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project, FanGraphs readers prefer Oakland Television (link).

Other Notable Games
Seattle at Cleveland | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Felix Hernandez starts for Seattle. Here’s a thing that’s largely unchanged for Hernandez so far this year (in 59.0 IP) relative to recent seasons: his strikeout and walk rates (24.8% and 6.8 %, respectively). Here’s a thing that has changed, but only slightly: his ground-ball rate (47.7% this season, after sitting in the low-to-mid 50s for most of his career). Here’s a thing that’s continued to change: his average fastball velocity (91.6 mph this season, 93.4 mph in 2011, 94.4 mph in 2010). Here’s what has changed dramatically: his changeup usage (currently 37.9%, 22.0% in 2011, 16.2% in 2010, 5.3% in 2009).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle.

Baltimore at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Felipe Paulino makes his third start of the season for the Royals. His line so far: 11.2 IP, 25.5% K, 6.4% BB, 43.8% GB, 3.03 SIERA, 75 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR. He faces a Baltimore team ranked eighth in batter/fielder WAR as of Monday.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Baltimore.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.8.

Regard, a magnificent and sortable table:

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Chris Capuano	LAN	4	5	4	5	4	SD	Clayton Richard	18:35
Nick Blackburn	MIN	2	3	4	2	7	DET	Rick Porcello	19:05
Erik Bedard	PIT	6	1	6	2	9	WAS	Gio Gonzalez	19:05
Felix Hernandez	SEA	7	3	3	3		CLE	Ubaldo Jimenez	19:05
Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	3	7	4	5	4	TOR	Kyle Drabek	19:07
Clay Buchholz	BOS	1	6	3	7	2	TB	Jer. Hellickson	19:10
Mike Leake	CIN	5	3	5	2	7	NYN	Johan Santana	19:10
Mark Buehrle	MIA	3	4	5	8	7	ATL	Mike Minor	19:10
Randy Wolf	MIL	1	6	5	6	7	HOU	Bud Norris	20:05
Tommy Milone	OAK	4	4	6	10	7	TEX	Yu Darvish	20:05
Vance Worley	PHI	7	4	6	3	7	CHN	Matt Garza	20:05
Tommy Hunter	BAL	4	6	6	7	8	KC	Felipe Paulino*	20:10
Patrick Corbin*	AZ	6	6	5	8	3	COL	Jamie Moyer	20:40
Gavin Floyd	CHA	5	4	5	2	5	LAA	Jerome Williams	22:05
Jaime Garcia	STL	5	10	5	3	5	SF	Mad. Bumgarner	22:15

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.

Qualls wouldn’t finish the ninth, as the Astros tied the game behind four hits and nearly took the lead, stranding runners on second and third thanks to Jake Diekman‘s first career strikeout. Hunter Pence picked up Qualls with a walk-off home run in the 10th inning, but with Papelbon making $50 million over the next four years, it’s easy to question Charlie Manuel when he sits in the bullpen as a journeyman reliever blows a save. Is what we saw Monday a theme for the season?

Of the five Phillies relievers to pitch at least eight innings this year (Papelbon, Qualls, Jose Contreras, Joe Savery and Antonio Bastardo), Papelbon ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of gmLI, or the leverage index at the time the reliever was called upon. Bastardo, who has been as good (if not better) than Papelbon so far, with a 1.20 ERA and 2.69 FIP, leads at 1.76 — a very closer-esque number. Qualls comes in at second at 1.35 and then we see Papelbon at 1.19.

The easy response here is that the Phillies aren’t squeezing as much out of Papelbon as they could. Papelbon has seen action eight times with a LI below 1.0 as opposed to seven times over it. At least these other times weren’t the back end of consecutive outings — Papelbon had at least one day of rest and up to as many as three in each instance besides Sunday night’s.

The problem is the Phillies just haven’t had that many tough situations to put him in. He’s only been forced to save one one-run game all season — opening day against the Pirates. The Phillies have shown a major propensity for scoring late in games — 59 of 138 (43%) total runs came in innings seven, eight or nine entering Monday’s game. Thus in some cases where it looked like Papelbon could be left with a stressful ninth inning, he’s been given a two, three, or (as happened Sunday) four run lead instead, if not passed over completely as a result.

Could the Phillies find more spots to use Papelbon? Probably. Although many managers avoid using their closers in extra inning road games, Manuel is notorious for it. The Phillies have lost four extra-inning road games this season, and Papelbon hasn’t been called upon in either of them. But the problem of Papelbon’s lack of appearances in tight ninth innings should be solved by time, as the Phillies will eventually give him a one-run lead or two to work with, and he’ll get a chance to prove his worth then.

When Charlie Manuel had Jonathan Papelbon get warming on Sunday, it appeared the Phillies would be facing the exact situation that burned Chad Qualls Monday afternoon. Could Manuel have held Papelbon back after Philadelphia plated two in the eighth? It’s possible, but maybe Papelbon would have needed to rest Monday as a result of the warmup alone. The problem for the Phillies on Monday wasn’t that they misused Jonathan Papelbon so badly that he was unavailable, it was that Chad Qualls was the next choice in the Phillies’ bullpen. Even beyond Qualls, the Phillies’ bullpen simply hasn’t offered many options this season: only Papelbon, Bastardo and Qualls owned ERAs or FIPs below 3.00 entering the game, and Qualls’s 2.84 ERA was disguising a 5.02 FIP.

Games like these will inexorably lead to questions about the true value of expensive closers like Jonathan Papelbon. But maybe the point that should be raised is this: a good bullpen consists of more than one relief ace. The issue with Charlie Manuel’s bullpen Monday afternoon wasn’t its management, it was a lack of talent beyond its big-money star.