As first reported on AOL Fanhouse, the Horned Frogs will leave the Mountain West to join the Big East in all sports, beginning July 1, 2012. The Frogs first season of Big East football would be the 2012-2013 season.

By some estimates, TCU will be located an average of 1,140 miles from the other Big East football league members.

The move comes amid estimates that the Mountain West will not gain automatic-qualification status in the BCS during the next evaluation window, due in large part to the departures of both BYU and Utah. According to BCS spokesman Bill Hancock, teams that leave a conference take their performance during the evaluation period with them to their new conferences.

In this decade, TCU has been a member of the WAC, Conference USA and MWC.

Additional reports indicate that the Big East has also extended an offer to Villanova to become the conference's tenth football member. The Dallas News reports that Villanova"seems to be dragging its feet about a decision", a move that would bring the school up from the FCS division to FBS. Villanovais currently a member of the Big East in nearly all other conference sports.

If Villanovadoes not join the Big East for football, then the University of Central Florida is expected to receive a formal invitation to join for the 2012-2013 season.

BYU's best-case scenario is for the Big 12 to expand and call the Cougars. But even then, BYU would need the fit to be right (no Sunday play, use of BYU-TV). BYU's mission, the bigger picture demanded by its sponsoring religion, dictates the facilities on campus receive significant usage. The Big 12 is an ESPN conference and it understands the need for a presence in the West since ESPN's WAC is now injured, Colorado is gone, and competitively the Pac-10 might be headed for a renewal with rival Fox.

With only ten confirmed members for 2012, what are the possibilities of BYU joining the Big 12?

While often considered a "small" school, the Cougars would instantly become the third largest member in terms of enrollment behind Texas and Texas A&M, according to Wikipedia. BYU also brings a string of football sellouts to what would be the fourth largest stadium in the Big 12.

BYU also sports world-class broadcast television facilities, which the Big 12 has already indicated its member schools are free to use at their discretion.

BYU definitely has a passionate fan base. It's not nearly the size of, say, the Longhorns fan base, but at one point the Cougars owned five of the ten largest television audiences in ESPN football history. To put it simply, BYU football brings in viewers. And after spending years relegated to the low distribution .mtn network, BYU is looking to bring Cougar football back to the masses.

Adding BYU to the Big 12 would bring the conference to eleven teams, which also opens the door to further conference expansion. By adding the Cougars, the Big 12 would have the perfect opening to pursue TCU or Arkansas. And the addition of the Salt Lake City market would effectively draw a line in the sand against the Pac 10's television plans.

Sound off, guys, should the Big 12 pursue BYU?

Reports claim that BYU is leaving the Mountain West Conference and will become a football independent, starting in the 2011 season. The expected announcement, which is said to be pending the approval of the LDS Church, might (might!) make the Cougars "the Notre Dame of the west." MWC Commissioner Craig Thompson is pretty much speechless.

In a pre-emptive move to keep Boise State committed to join the MWC, the Mountain West will expand to include Fresno State and Nevada, both from the WAC.

With the departure of Nevada and Fresno State, the WAC is left with just six members for 2011, two less than the NCAA requires. The only plan - for now - seems to be for the WAC to sue both Nevada and Fresno State.

Ironically enough, the reports claim that the Cougars were to join the WAC in all non-football sports, but - with only six confirmed members for 2011 - the WAC does not have enough members to be recognized as a conference by the NCAA. In other words, BYU may have single-handily destroyed the WAC by leaving the MWC... only to find itself headed back MWC in all other sports.

What does this mean for the MWC and BYU as it relates to the BCS? Fanblogs alum Ben Prather sounds off.

Here's a quick what we know, what we can surmise....

- Colorado is officially joining the Pac10. It's unclear as to whether the Pac10 intends to hold at 11 teams, but we should expect the Pac10 to seek to add at least one additional member. For years the argument against expansion centered around the round-robin schedule format and - with 11 schools - that format is officially out the window for college football. Adding one more school would give the conference the option to conduct a CFB championship game in some of the largest television markets in the country. Does the Pac10 stop at 12 (Texas??) or expand further with Big12/MWC/WAC teams???

- The Big10 will have 12 teams with the addition of Nebraska. Will they stand pat at 12 teams or expand to 16 as had been rumored?

- The SEC has said that they will not sit idly by if the Big10 expands. Sports Illustrated has confirmed that the SEC has held discussions with Texas A&M. Is that prelude to further SEC expansion? Who, in addition to the Aggies, are on the SEC radar?

- The ACC & Big East seem to be awfully quiet. Are they targets or could a merger be on the table for the two conferences?

- The MWC will not offer membership to Boise State at this time, setting themselves up to be the home of any Big12 refugees. Is the MWC destined to become a BCS conference by default?

DISCUSS!!!

At first glance, it would seem to reward teams that played a tougher schedule rather than padding their record with cupcakes. The change would also give bowls more flexibility to create the most interesting matchup, potentially boosting revenues for struggling bowl committees.

Matt Sanderson, co-founder of Playoff PAC, told the San Diego Union Times that the rule could allow bowls with open slots for at-large teams to select power-conference teams with 6-6 records over smaller-conference teams with winning records.

Sanderson points to this season's GMAC Bowl, which took 9-3 Troy as an at-large team. Under the revised rules, the GMAC Bowl could have offered the at-large slot to 6-6 Notre Dame.

While the new provision still needs an OK by the greater NCAA, most rule revisions that make it out of committee are approved.

Suffice to say... no one wants to see a bad 6-6 team stink it up in a marquee bowl game. The reality is that - with new bowls coming on in Yankee Stadium and the Cotton Bowl - there are going to be 70 teams in bowl games this year. If a bowl needs to dig deep and get an at-large team, I would prefer them to create the most interesting game they can.

No disrespect intended, but I would *much* rather see a hypothetical 6-6 Southern Cal as an at-large against Alabama, for example, over a 7-5 Louisiana Monroe.

Just sayin.

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Date/Time/TV Bowl Site Matchup Saturday Dec. 19 2 :30 pm ET ESPN New Mexico Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Albuquerque, NM University Stadium Wyoming vs. Fresno State Saturday Dec. 19 8:00 pm ET ESPN St. Petersburg Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks St. Petersburg, FL Tropicana Field Rutgers vs. Central Florida Sunday Dec. 20 8:00 pm ET ESPN R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks New Orleans, LA Louisiana Superdome Southern Miss vs. Middle Tenn St Tuesday Dec. 22 8:00 pm ET ESPN MAACO Bowl Las Vegas Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Las Vegas, NV Sam Boyd Stadium BYU vs. Oregon State Wednesday Dec. 23 8:00 pm ET ESPN San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks San Diego, CA Qualcomm Stadium Utah vs. Cal Thursday Dec. 24 8:00 pm ET ESPN Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Honolulu, HI Aloha Stadium SMU vs. Nevada Saturday Dec. 26 4:30 pm ET ESPN Meineke Car Care Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Charlotte, NC Bank of America Stadium North Carolina vs. Pitt Saturday Dec. 26 5 :00 pm ET ESPN Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Detroit, MI Ford Field Ohio U vs. Marshall Saturday Dec. 26 8:00 pm ET ESPN Emerald Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks San Francisco, CA AT&T Park Boston College vs. USC Sunday Dec. 27 8:15 pm ET ESPN Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Nashville, TN LP Field Clemson vs. Kentucky Monday Dec. 28 5:00 pm ET ESPN AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Shreveport, LA Independence Stadium Texas A&M vs. Georgia Tuesday Dec. 29 4:30 pm ET ESPN EagleBank Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Washington, DC RFK Stadium Temple vs. UCLA Tuesday Dec. 29 8:00 pm ET ESPN Champs Sports Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Orlando, FL Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium Miami vs. Wisconsin Wednesday Dec. 30 4:30 pm ET ESPN Roady's Humanitarian Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Boise, ID Bronco Stadium Bowling Green vs. Idaho Wednesday Dec. 30 8:00 pm ET ESPN Pacific Life Holiday Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks San Diego, CA Qualcomm Stadium Nebraska vs. Arizona Thursday Dec. 31 2:00 pm ET NFL Network Texas Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Houston, TX Reliant Stadium Missouri vs. Navy Thursday Dec. 31 Time TBA ESPN Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Fort Worth, TX Amon G. Carter Stadium Air Force vs. Houston Thursday Dec. 31 12:00 pm ET CBS Brut Sun Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks El Paso, TX Sun Bowl Stadium Stanford vs. Oklahoma Thursday Dec. 31 5:30 pm ET NFL Network Insight Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Tempe, AZ Sun Devil Stadium Minnesota vs. Iowa State Thursday Dec. 31 7:30 pm ET ESPN Chick-fil-A Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Atlanta, GA Georgia Dome Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee Friday Jan. 1 11:00 am ET ESPN Outback Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Tampa, FL Raymond James Stadium Auburn vs. Northwestern Friday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET CBS Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville Municipal Stadium FSU vs. West Virginia Friday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET ABC Capital One Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Orlando, FL Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium Penn State vs. LSU Friday Jan. 1 5:00 pm ET ABC Rose Bowl presented by Citi Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Pasadena, CA Rose Bowl Ohio State vs. Oregon Friday Jan. 1 8:30 pm ET FOX Allstate Sugar Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks New Orleans, LA Superdome Florida vs. Cincinnati Saturday Jan. 2 12:00 pm ET ESPN2 International Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Toronto, Canada Rogers Centre South Florida vs. Northern Illinois Saturday Jan. 2 2 :00 pm ET ESPN PapaJohns.com Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Birmingham, AL Legion Field Connecticut vs. South Carolina Saturday Jan. 2 2:00 pm ET FOX AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Arlington, TX Cowboys Stadium Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss Saturday Jan. 2 5:30 pm ET ESPN AutoZone Liberty Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Memphis, TN Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium East Carolina vs. Arkansas Saturday Jan. 2 9 :00 pm ET ESPN Valero Alamo Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks San Antonio, TX Alamodome Michigan State vs. Texas Tech Monday Jan. 4 8:00 pm ET FOX Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Glendale, AZ University of Phoenix Stadium TCU vs. Boise State Tuesday Jan. 5 8:00 pm ET FOX FedEx Orange Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Miami, FL Dolphin Stadium Georgia Tech vs. Iowa Wednesday Jan. 6 7 :00 pm ET ESPN GMAC Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Mobile, AL Ladd Peebles Stadium Troy vs. Central Michigan Thursday Jan. 7 8:00 pm ET ABC BCS National Championship Game Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks Pasadena, CA Rose Bowl Alabama vs. Texas

The 2009 college football season will be capped by exciting college football bowl games, including the 2009 Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, the 2009 Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona, the 2009 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana, the 2009 Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida and the 2009 BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena, CA.

The best college football teams from the major conferences, including the Big10 conference, Big 12 conference, Pac 10 conference, ACC conference, Big East conference, SEC conference, and Mountain West conference will face off in college football bowl games throughout December and into January.

If you're looking for updated matchups, odds, insights, betting lines and online wagering for the college football bowl games, please be sure to try BangTheBook.com.

Officials from the SEC have already confirmed their participation to The Birmingham News. Under the terms, the Gator will get "at least" the sixth pick of bowl-eligible SEC teams. The pick position could vary on a year-to-year basis, but more details would be announced once the Big 10 announces its bowl agreements next week.

The Gator Bowl is also in final talks to become part of a broadcast deal with ESPN, leaving CBS, in a move that could signal the end of the exclusive broadcast window that has been previously negotiated for the Capital One Bowl.

With the Cotton Bowl moving to January 2nd, the result of the Gator Bowl agreement means that all three non-BCS games on New Years Day will feature SEC vs Big 10 matchups.

With the end of the ACC / Big East relationship in the Gator Bowl, the ACC and Big East have signed an agreement with the Champs Bowl which will essentially recreates the conferences past Gator relationship in Orlando.

Under the terms to begin with the 2010 season, the ACC will send its #3 selection to the Champs Bowl to face the Big East's #2 selection or Notre Dame. The Champs can select Notre Dame once over the four year agreement if the Irish have seven wins and are within two wins of the #2 Big East school.

With the Gator Bowl now aligned with SEC, the Independence Bowl finds itself as odd-man out in the SEC bowl mix after 15 years with the conference. Instead, the Independence Bowl will look to sign a new bowl matchup between the ACC and Mountain West.

And they failed.

Using the emulated BCS automatic qualification standards the WAC leads the MWC from 2006-2008. 2008 was the only year in the past 3 where the MWC outperformed the WAC. Currently the gap between Boise State and TCU is roughly equal to the value of the MWC having a second team in the top 25. This week will help shape how they rank in the third criteria, average ranking of all teams in teh BCS computeres.

Top:
TCU handled their historic SWC rival SMU, as is the norm this decade. Few questions were answered in this game and TCU remains as big a question mark at this point this year as Utah was at this point last year.

Utah was off so we gained little new information, hough Oregon continued to redeem themselves.

BYU handled their instate rival Utah State by the exact score Utah beat them to open the season. Like the weekends for TCU and Utah we know about as much as we did last year.

Middle:
Air Force looks to have lost the commander in cheif trophy to Navy again this year. The possibility remains that Army could surprise everyone and claim it, adding a loss in the MWC only remaining OOC game of the regular season.

CSU lost a close battle to a surprising Idaho team.

UNLV got destroyed by Nevada, who looked like they spent the first four weeks looking ahead to this one game.

Bottom:
SDSU prevented New Mexico State from upending two MWC teams in as many weeks.

Wyoming also secured a win in a close game at Florida Atlantic.

New Mexico showed up and got payed by Texas Tech.

Summary
The MWC is 5-9 vs. BCS opponents. This gives them a PCT of 0.357, less than the 0.400 required by their own standards for a BCS automatic qualification.

Their 6-4 record over the WAC should give them a slight lead in the BCS computers for the third criteria, but prevent them from being anywhere near warranting a BCS automatic qualification at this time.

So what now?
The MWC's case for this season will ride on whether they can again get 3 teams into the top 25, or one into a BCS bowl. TCU could make for an interesting race with Boise State, but more than likely Boise State would have to lose one to open the door.

If Boise State goes to a BCS bowl, this would give the WAC 3 years of BCS participation to the MWC's 2. If they are selected over an undefeated TCU, who beat them in last years Poinsettia Bowl, this would help atone for Boise State being left out for Utah in 2004 and 2008, a team they have beat the last three meetings.

Utah can not lose to both TCU and BYU and getinto the top 25. A loss in the final week to Utah likely puts BYU out of the top 25 as well, unless they beat TCU first. The only way three MWC teams finish ranked is if they split and all beat every other MWC team.

Not much more will change until the bowls are announced. At that time I will continue with round 6, followed by the final count after the bowls.

Top
TCU secured another win in the MWC's marque game of the week. Clemson is a solid team but at this point looks to be close to Georgia Tech who could not manage Miami. TCU climbs into the top 10 in Coaches Poll and narrowed its gap behind Boise State in all polls.

Utah got some credibility back when Oregon manhandled California. A solid win over Louisville did not hurt. Losing RB Matt Asiata for the season might limit their ability down the stretch. Utah should be ranked in the top 25.

BYU handled their first conference game by ending CSU's undefeated season. Their loss to FSU looked more critical with FSU's loss to USF. Oklahoma has not faced any stiff competition since BYU and their game against Miami this week could bring some clarity to this picture. If Miami wins big it could indicate that BYU looks to be behind TCU and Utah again this year.

Middle
UNLV lost a road trip to Wyoming in their conference opener. This raises questions about where these two teams stand, as Wyoming had been looking like a team the MWC would rather keep solidly in the bottom by OOC play.

Air Force took care of business against SDSU.

Bottom
New Mexico lost to their in state rival New Mexico Statein what looks like a sinking ship.

Summary
2-0 vs. BCS opponents is never a bad week. While this season has taken a step back from the levels achieved by the MWC in 2008, it is still better than where they were any year prior. All in all, i'd say the MWC has not lived up to their claims in 2009, and will need a good showing in the bowls to change this.

So far the MWC is 5-8 vs. BCS opponents. The MWC's proposal required conferences to maintain a record above 0.400 to determine automatic qualifications. With one game remaining this will require a win for this year, or a winning record vs. BCS opponents in the bowls. From 2006-2009 the MWC is 27-32. The MWC would have to lose the next 8 games to fall below 0.400 over a four year window.

Preview
Week 5 features the last round of significant OOC play before all teams settle into the conference schedules. Only one OOC game remains after this week (Army at Air Force). Anything worse than 2 losses would be bad for week 5, but 5 games will be close and one loss appears certain.

This week starts with BYU vs. Utah State on their traditional Friday game time. This game is held on Friday because the LDS church has general conference this Saturday.

Air Force will play Navy in a game that should determine the Commander in Chief trophy.

New Mexico faces Texas Tech in the MWC's last regular season game against BCS opponents. New Mexico is not Houston.

UNLV travels to Nevada to face their in state rival, who will be hungry to regain credibility at their expense.

Wyoming gets to travel to Florida Atlantic for a chance to build their claim to join the middle of the MWC.

TCU hosts rival SMU in what should be a solid win.

SDSU hosts New Mexico State, who would love to secure two consecutive wins vs. MWC opponents.

CSU travels to Idaho for an unexpected battle of 3-1 teams. Could the Vandals be a challenger for Boise State this year? The winner of this game might even get a vote or two in the ORV section of the polls.

Utah plays the mighty BYE, who manages to play dozens of teams each week.

For a MWC fan this weekend was devastating. While not the end of the world, the MWC's bite has failed to live up to its bark in week 3. The top of the MWC, its alleged strength, took serious loses and the middle and bottom did nothing to mitigate these losses.

While last week was a minor set back, this week set the MWC back beyond the gain for BYU's upset of Oklahoma and started to cut into the credibility from Utah's Sugar Bowl win.

Top
BYU hosted FSU as a 7 point favorite and lost 54-28. As a result, a chunk of their turf will now reside in Tallahassee. They also drop from the top 10 to near #25. Somehow they got a bit of a USC effect and remain above the team that beat them in the coaches poll. This year BYU's defense began shifting their focus to increase speed. This game showed they still have a lot of work to do here.

Oregon was favored to beat Utah by 4 and covered with a 31-24 win. Utah struggled in the second quarter to get any kind of momentum but managed to close the 14 point gap in the second half. This game made both teams look like they had some serious work to do before going into their conference slate.

TCU came out sloppy against Texas State and allowed them to stay within 14 until TCU went on a 21 point run in the fourth quarter. I can only hope they were looking towards this weeks game at Clemson.

Middle
UNLV scored one of the bright moments for the conference by coming back to beat Hawaii 34-33, helping to verify that the middle of the MWC is better than the middle of the WAC.

Air Force won their first conference game against New Mexico 37-13. Frankly, if New Mexico wins a game in conference this year it will be bad for the conference. They took this spot from SDSU this year.

At the start of the season CSU and Nevada looked like it might be a good test for CSU, but Nevada has struggled mightily since then and the 35-20 win by CSU is diminished. This does solidify their place in the middle of the conference, which was questionable to start the year.

Bottom
SDSU lost their road trip to Idaho 34-20. Apparently the bottom of the WAC is competitive with the bottom of the MWC.

Wyoming was shut out by Colorado 24-0, and Toledo put up 50+ on them? Wyoming is almost right with New Mexico

Summary
The MWC went 0-3 against BCS conference members. While last week brought the middle into question, this week took a bite out of the top of the conference. The MWC has lost the credibility it earned the opening week.

It appears the MWC was enjoying a housing market like bubble which has now burst. The result is that rankings, like housing prices, have restored to their proper market value.

I compared this years week 3 simulated BCS standings with those of the past 2 years. The non-AQ conferences went from 2 to 4 to 4 teams in the top 25 while the MWC went from 0 to 2 to 2. The MWC appears to be near where it sat last year after TCU lost to Oklahoma, which is still far better than they were any year prior.

They will need to finish strong and have a solid bowl season to avoid being dismissed completely.

Must wins
The MWC only has 3 out of conference games this week and really needs to win them all to gain credibility.
2 out of three will maintain the current meh. None of these games will come easy.

TCU travels to the much anticipated game against Clemson.

Utah hosts Louisville in the only game between the Big East and the MWC this season. This game will draw far too much attention in the MWC vs. Big East debate, no matter how the game goes.

New Mexico host in state rival New Mexico State in a largely one sided rivalry. New Mexico is way down as they break in a new coaching staff and should make a game of it. A win here would reduce how bad New Mexico, the likely bottom of the MWC, is perceived.

Conference play
Undefeated CSU is getting a few points in the polls and could make a significant jump with a win over BYU, at the cost of knocking BYU out of the top 25. Getting a fourth team into top 25 striking distance would be a huge plus for the MWC.

Air Force and UNLV should handle SDSU and Wyoming respectively.

Closing
The next installment will be next Tuesday night with the final regular season installment the following week, as only one game out of conference remains after that point.

Once bowl schedules are announced an installment will follow, and the concluding installment will come after the bowls are finished.

P.S. TE and WEA, we need some more SEC and ACC threads. What gives? ; )

Top:
BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility.

Middle:
Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games.

UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach's reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step.

CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo.

Bottom:
Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don't think Texas covered the 33 points.

SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss.

New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table.

Summary:
The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season.

Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is.

Expected wins:
BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC's favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls.

TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah...

Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week.

Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State.

Close calls:
CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC.

SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game.

Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC.

New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.

If they had left it at that 2009 would be simply be about whether they could maintain their success over an extended period of time. The BCS has procedures in place to periodically evaluate the conferences to determine future automatic qualifications. According to Bill Hancock, the BCS administrator, the Mountain West has a solid leg up for 2012. (To be evaluated based on 2008-2011 data.)

Instead they petitioned to be included presently and offered a proposed playoff to allow them access to the championship game. They took their case before congress and threatened to bring an anti-trust case against them. They rose the banter to a point that forces the issue in 2009.

If the MWC fails to follow up with a solid year like 2009 they are left looking silly from their talk and would have left a stain for any other conference attempting to garner a spot in the future. A failure in 2009 will not only diminish their hope for 2012 but will cloud any future hope as well. Success and the media cry will reach an unprecedented level.

Round 1 is complete and the MWC has done well.

Solid wins:
#20 BYU 14 #3 Oklahoma 13 at Dallas Texas

This game shows the growing respect the MWC is earning by having a MWC team selected to participate in the first collegiate game at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. This game is discussed elsewhere, including the injury sustained by Sam Bradford.

CSU 23 at Colorado 17

Three of the last 4 times CSU has defeated Colorado, CSU has won a share of the MWC championship, 2 outright. The other time saw Colorado go 2-9. While this win does not put CSU into the middle of the MWC title picture yet, it certainly lines them up for the #4 spot, ready to move up to #3 is TCU, Utah of BYU stumble down the stretch.

Other wins:
Utah 35 Utah State 17

This defensive game saw Utah score 2 safeties in an unusual path to 35 points. The game was not as close as the score indicates as Utah State scored one TD on a 96 yard rush with two blown assignments and the other after an interception gave them the ball with 5 yards to go. Utah has some work to do, and their schedule got a bit of a down-grade, courtesy of Boise State, this week.

Air Force 72 Nicholls State 0

Is this more or less impressive than 62-3 over Charleston Southern? You be the judge.

UNLV 38 Sacramento State 3

This one is less impressive, but really, WHY!!!

Wyoming 29 Weber State 22

At least Weber State is nearly as good as Appalachian State, who gave East Carolina a run for their money. Was Wyoming simply looking past them at a chance to host Texas? Remember back 4-5 years ago when 2 for 1 deals were hot?

Losses:
Texas A&M 41 vs. New Mexico 6

I was anticipating this game thinking New Mexico would get the ambush. I was wrong.

UCLA 33 vs. SDSU 14

SDSU was up 14-0 at one point. Then UCLA, as expected, took control of the game.

OFF
TCU

Results
The MWC went 2-2 vs. the BCS conferences in week 1 and 6-2 over all. This includes a 2-1 record vs. the Big 12. BYU should be close to, if not in, the top 10. Utah and TCU should slide up past a few teams dropping below them with losses. CSU and Air Force might pick up some points at the bottom of the ORV column.

MWC vs. BCS in round 2:

TCU at Virginia: TCU starts the season against a team that lost its opener to William and Mary.

Air Force at Minnesota: Minnesota played Syracuse to an OT win while Air Force easily handled their scrimmage. This should be a good test for both teams.

Oregon State at UNLV: Both teams ran over FCS teams. Oregon State should help avenge the PAC 10 vs. the MWC in this one.

Texas at Wyoming: If Wyoming wins this I will LMAO.

Tulsa might win at New Mexico, but other than that the MWC should win the rest. I am nervous about Utah's trip to San Jose State.

Steele's methodology differs from the NCAA's own strength of schedule calculation in that it factors changes to the team for 2009. For example, Steele takes into account a variety of factors including number of starters returning per team, whereas the NCAA just looks at each team's record from 2008 and projects it into this coming season. The difference? historically, is that Steele's projections tend to be more accurate at this point in the season.

Without further ado....

PHIL STEELE'S 2009 TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKINGS

1. South Carolina 2. Florida St 3. Oklahoma 4. Mississippi St 5. Minnesota 6. Arkansas 7. Georgia 8. Virginia Tech 9. Tennessee 10. Michigan St

...

115. Ball St
116. Florida Atlantic
117. Boise St
118. Army
119. Ohio
120. Kent St

A couple of trends jump off the page right away:

First and foremost, the top ten is stacked with SEC East teams. Three big factors are at play here.
- The SEC returns an great percentage of starters almost across the board. There are a few key holes to fill, but no team is remotely close to starting from scratch.
- The SEC East scheduling in 2009 brings strong divisional matchups this season.
- And last but in no way least, the Florida Gators are hugely rated by Steele this season and six of the top ten teams have games scheduled against UF.

Secondly, if you're Boise State, you not only have to win every game but you need to play some scoreboard pinball in order to make into a BCS game. The Broncos aren't getting any help from their schedule this season.

Third, the WAC & MWC have broken the glass ceiling on the BCS, but don't expect the MAC to join the party any time soon. Seven of the ten weakest schedules are from the MAC. Ouch.

Finally, and this might be the most important item to remember, Phil Steele's rankings have been a good predictor but they don't factor into the BCS in any way. The BCS has its own strength of schedule component within the computer indexes.

With little fanfare, the MWC signed onto the BCS television agreement this month, securing the conference's participation in (and cash flow from) the BCS until 2014. But... it's not about the money, Thompson insists. Oh no, he's doing it for the kids.

"We couldn't take our kids voluntarily out of the chance to play in a BCS bowl game," Thompson said during a state-of-the-conference address to media members at a Las Vegas-area casino resort. "As much as we would like to see change in the system, it is the only system."

Thompson said the conference will continue to pay $265,000 to a Washington lobbying firm to keep the BCS issue before Congress and will push for a change when the BCS contract expires in 2014.

Thompson vowed to "fight within and challenge within, and try to coerce and convince and cajole ... our fellow 10 conferences to change the system over the next couple years."

In the interim, the Mountain West Conference -- and every other conference -- will have the opportunity to play its way into an automatic qualifier status over the next four years.

Following the 2012 season, the BCS will review each conference to determine its automatic qualifier status based upon a combination of the following for the 2008 - 2012 seasons:

To his credit, Thompson acknowledged the MWC's opportunity to work within the system:

"If you perform and you win games and you're playing quality opponents and you're beating the Oklahomas, the Alabamas, the UCLAs, the Michigans, and all the people we've beaten," he said, "that should be our statement."

I couldn't agree more, Commissioner.

The topic is what is it going to take to keep Utah at its elite level of play. I think this question should be expanded to the entire MWC conference.

7-2 vs PAC 10 members, 10-5 vs all BCS teams, 28-13 overall.
3 teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings.
31-17 Sugar Bowl win over a team that was #1 for over half the season.

In 2008 the MWC played like a conference deserving of a BCS automatic qualification. Is this a one time blip or is the MWC a major conference being born?

The BCS is set to review the results from 2008-2011 to determine the automatic qualifications for 2012 and 1013. Boise State would help the MWC across the board in the measures used by the BCS. They would need to play in the MWC in 2011 to count for the MWC and must give a year notice to leave the WAC. The MWC would need to invite them this year or next year.

If the MWC continues to perform at the level they achieved in 2008 they may earn an automatic qualification as soon as 2012. The question is can they.

Will the 2009 Sugar Bowl be for the MWC what the 1926 Rose Bowl was for the SEC?

BCS busting
An undefeated MWC team has demonstrated the ability to outrank an undefeated team from any other at-large conference in the BCS standings. If Boise State (and a handful of others less likely to do so) is not undefeated a one loss MWC team could earn an automatic spot.

TCU got into the top 14 needed for consideration last year with 2 losses. BYU, New Mexico and Wyoming are the only MWC team with a schedule difficult enough to accomplish that in 2009.

The following projections are slightly, but not over the top, optimistic for the MWC.

TCU
OOC: @Virginia, Texas State, @Clemson and SMU

The two road OOC games will give TCU an opportunity to showcase their talent to a national audience. TCU was stunted by a lack of offense in 2008 and if any offense can be found they will be a serious threat.

TCU has no games they can't win and many games they have no excuse losing. In 2008 they gave Utah all Utah could handle in Salt Lake City. This year they get Utah at home. TCU also ended Utah's last season long winning streak. Their field is known for killing long streaks in the MWC.

An 11-1 (7-1 MWC) TCU is my pick for this year's BCS buster.

Utah
OOC: Utah State, @San Jose State, @Oregon and Louisville

Utah @ Oregon looms big. This game will set the winner up as a potential national contender. San Jose State and Louisville should be manageable tests.

Unlike 2005 Utah has had a relatively stable off season following a BCS bowl win. The respect of being a BCS worthy team will put a target on them, especially for road games at rivals TCU and BYU. I got Utah splitting those but dropping another conference game along the way (see New Mexico 2008). Losing to Oregon and winning all other MWC games is a strong possibility as well.

A 10-2 (6-2 MWC) Utah would be squarely in the top 20 of the final BCS standings.

BYU
OOC: vs. Oklahoma(Cowboy Stadium), @Tulane, FSU and Utah State

If BYU can beat Oklahoma on a neutral field, give the MWC their automatic qualification now. FSU will be a fun game to watch. MWC fans like to jaw at the ACC, now we will get to see how much bite their is to our bark.

A 10-2 (7-1 MWC) BYU would be in the top 15.

Air Force
OOC: Nicholls State, @Minnesota, @Navy, Army

Minnesota and Navy are challenges Air Force should be up to facing.

7-5 (4-4 MWC)

CSU
OOC: @Colorado, Weber State, Nevada, @Idaho

CSU is over due for an upset of Colorado. They are still trying to gain a new focus and this is not that year. Nevada may prove tough.

7-5 (4-4 MWC)

UNLV
OOC: Sacramento State, Oregon State, Hawaii, @Nevada

Hawaii and Nevada are a good match for UNLV. Oregon State not so much.

6-6 (3-5 MWC)

New Mexico (Coaching Change)
OOC: @Texas A&M, Tulsa, New Mexico State, @Texas Tech

Texas A&M looks vulnerable and Tulsa should be an even match.

4-8 (2-6 MWC)

Wyoming (Coaching Change)
OOC: Weber State, Texas, @Colorado, @Florida Atlantic

I have high hopes for Wyoming's new coach. Florida Atlantic might be an interesting test. My gut says Wyoming will pass with flying colors.

4-8 (2-6 MWC)

SDSU (Coaching Change)
OOC: @UCLA, Southern Utah, @Idaho, New Mexico State

PLEASE BEAT SOUTHERN UTAH!! THE MWC DOESN'T NEED TO LOSE AN FCS GAME LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR TO CAL POLY!!

3-9 (1-7 MWC)

OOC
BCS: 14 games. Are 10 of these winnable? I don't think as many are as vulnerable as they were last year and they definitely will not be caught by surprise two years in a row. I would expect a 7-7 result, but a 9-5 result is not unthinkable.

PAC: 3 games. The MWC will likely go 1-2. The Utah @ Oregon game will be huge.

Total: 36 games. Are 25 of these winnable? I think 26 wins are not out of the question.

WAC: 10 games. Last year's 7-2 dominance MUST be continued here.

Conclusion
I expect the MWC to take a slight step back from last year but remain far better than they had been in years prior. The MWC is a conference committed to the capital improvements needed to sustain long term success and will continue to grow stronger as time goes on.

For after 2014 I ask one question. Would the people that organized the BCS rather add the MWC or create a playoff structure? Either way the MWC is not going away anytime soon.