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2011 SEC Non-Traditional Out of Conference Game Predictions

Tue, 09 Aug 2011 01:01:34 -0500

I'm an Auburn homer. I think they'll win every game. I refuse to think otherwise, so if that colors me slightly biased, I'm open about admitting it. I'll also admit that I'm probably not the most reliable go-to guy for betting information involving an Auburn team for the same reason. I picked Auburn to win every game last year. As it was, I just happened to be right, which really bolsters my confidence going into this year. I did miss five games in 2009 however, but I'm still right most of the time.

That being so, I'm still not usually one to make predictions involving Auburn until the very last minute when I'm forced to do it. However, with the other teams in the conference, I have no such reservations, and with the preseason Coaches Poll out last week soon to be followed by the AP poll, I figure why not cast out my predictions for the out-of-conference (OOC) games of interest that are not standing rivalry games?

Usually crucified for their OOC scheduling, the SEC in recent years has made a consistent effort to take on more BCS teams that we don't play that often--many from outside the south. Bolstered by the addition of one-and-done contests like the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game and the Cowboys Classic, college football itself is making it easier to lure together more attractive non-traditional opponents due to the high national exposure and payouts. Just this year, the SEC showcases three strong opening weekend games: LSU-Oregon in Dallas, Georgia-Boise State in Atlanta, and Ole Miss-BYU in Oxford.

While I said last year that Vanderbilt had the toughest OOC schedule, there's little doubt that LSU wears that crown this year with the opener against Oregon in Dallas and at West Virginia on September 24th. Vandy still has a tough slate with UConn, Army and Wake Forest. And while I generally almost always root for SEC teams in OOC games, I don't think we're going to win them all this year. Here's the Top 10 contests:

Sept 3rd: LSU and Oregon: How does it get better than this? The 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the pre-season, Oregon coming off the narrow national championship game loss and LSU from an 11-2 season and Cotton Bowl beat-down of Texas A&M. It's so hard to start the season without any tune-up contest and immediately play national-caliber competition. A win can propel a team on to great things like Alabama did in 2008 after clobbering Clemson in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game, or for the reverse, see Clemson's fortunes that very same year. Oregon returns many of their starters as does LSU, but with the loss to Auburn still fresh on their minds and the Tiger's QB fortunes still unproven in my mind, I think Oregon edges this one out in yet another slow motion fashion for the Ducks, 17-14.

Sept 3rd: Georgia and Boise State: After playing with a major chip on their shoulders the last two seasons, going undefeated in 2009 and losing late to Nevada last year to see any hopes of BCS and national championship glory go down the drain, the Broncos come into the Georgia Dome once again looking for national respect--this time in an early season game against a BCS opponent rather than in a bowl game. None on this team were around the last time Boise played in the state of Georgia, a 48-13 drubbing by the very same Dogs in Athens in 2005, but we're sure it'll still be on their minds. Mark Richt and Georgia come into the season hungry to reestablish themselves as contenders in the SEC east and a solid victory over Boise will put them on the right path. Dogs win in a surprisingly hard-fought match, 28-24.

Sept 3rd: BYU at Ole Miss: The newly independent Cougars can have all the SEC scheduling they can handle now that they're leaving the Mountain West after arch-rival Utah got the invite to the PAC 12. BYU has only played SEC teams four previous times, winning only one game--in Provo against Mississippi State. While the Rebels are predicted to compete for last place in the SEC west along with Auburn by all the pundits, conference pride will be on the line. But BYU has much to prove in their new play em anywhere, anytime roll and comes away with a close win 31-27.

Sept 10th: Alabama at Penn State: Predicted to challenge for the national championship this year, The Tide probably circled this game first on their calendar as the necessary hurdle in the early season to clear for a run at the top. With JoPa suffering yet another major physical injury during practice this weekend, and being an empty suit on the sidelines for much of the past few years, you wonder how much fight the Nittany Lions will have in them when the Tide rolls in. There is a lot of respect in this rivalry going back to the great Sugar Bowl games of the 1970s but Alabama rolls big on the road 34-17.

Sept 10th: UConn at Vandy: Coming off their second Big East title in four seasons and subsequent punishing at the hands of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, the Huskies had many people questioning whether the Big East was truly a BCS conference at all anymore. But that was last year and we are talking Vandy. The Dores make a valiant effort but the basketball-traditional Huskies rebound and beat a SEC team at their house 38-13.

Sept 17th: Auburn at Clemson: If there ever was a team that wanted the Auburn monkey off their backs it's Clemson, who haven't beaten their ancient Tiger rivals in sixty years. While taking Auburn to the wire in overtime in 2010 in a game they should have won, many think the Tiger Paws will have their day in Death Valley this year. Not to be so, as Auburn extends their misery for yet another year, 34-28, as the two will meet for the third consecutive year in 2012 in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game in Atlanta. See you in Hartwell.

Sept 17th: Navy at South Carolina: The Palmetto state will see two fine contests involving their two native sons on this weekend as Navy plays in Columbia. While nobody doubts that Navy will run the ball and have some success against the Gamecocks, there will probably be little the Midshipmen can do to stop the hungry chickens from crowing atop the yard-arm. SC rolls 42-17.

Sept 24th: LSU at West Virginia: After the off-season firing of HC Bill Stewart and the subsequent turmoil within the program that it produced, coupled with the fact that the Mountaineers only really field a high-caliber team about every twenty years or so, further coupled with a possible opening season loss by the Tigers to Oregon, I think the Purple Tigers roll through Morgantown in a fury, 38-13. Chance of couch burning: HIGH. Keep scheduling SEC teams, West Virginia. We might eye you one day in a future mega-conference power expansion grab. You've got too much pluck to be in the damn ACC.

Oct 1st: Texas A&M at Arkansas: You would think that the Aggies will be fired up for another shot at an SEC team after losing to both the Hawgs last year in College Station and to LSU in the Cotton Bowl, but Arky will be waiting as well for a shot at their old rivals and wins this big, 45-24. A&M should keep hedging their bets and scheduling SEC teams to keep their name fresh in our minds should you finally bolt from the remnants of the Big 12 to be drafted by us.

Oct 22: Army at Vanderbilt: The Gold Dome Bowl. Don't squint while watching this one or you might not be able to figure out which team is which. I think Vandy should schedule at least one of the service academies each year just for the uniform confusion alone. The Commodores pull rank on the Cadets 24-16, making 2/3rds of the academies 0-2 against our conference this year.

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TCU accepts offer to join Big East

Mon, 29 Nov 2010 12:16:53 -0500

TCU has scheduled a press conference for this afternoon to announce that it has accepted an offer to join the Big East Conference.

As first reported on AOL Fanhouse, the Horned Frogs will leave the Mountain West to join the Big East in all sports, beginning July 1, 2012. The Frogs first season of Big East football would be the 2012-2013 season.

By some estimates, TCU will be located an average of 1,140 miles from the other Big East football league members.

The move comes amid estimates that the Mountain West will not gain automatic-qualification status in the BCS during the next evaluation window, due in large part to the departures of both BYU and Utah. According to BCS spokesman Bill Hancock, teams that leave a conference take their performance during the evaluation period with them to their new conferences.

In this decade, TCU has been a member of the WAC, Conference USA and MWC.

Additional reports indicate that the Big East has also extended an offer to Villanova to become the conference's tenth football member. The Dallas News reports that Villanova"seems to be dragging its feet about a decision", a move that would bring the school up from the FCS division to FBS. Villanovais currently a member of the Big East in nearly all other conference sports.

If Villanovadoes not join the Big East for football, then the University of Central Florida is expected to receive a formal invitation to join for the 2012-2013 season.

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Coming soon to the Big 12: BYU?

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 20:29:54 -0500

In the wake of the rumored announcement that BYU is leaving the Mountain West Conference comes speculation from Salt Lake City that BYU may be trying to line up a Big 12 Conference invitation.

BYU's best-case scenario is for the Big 12 to expand and call the Cougars. But even then, BYU would need the fit to be right (no Sunday play, use of BYU-TV). BYU's mission, the bigger picture demanded by its sponsoring religion, dictates the facilities on campus receive significant usage. The Big 12 is an ESPN conference and it understands the need for a presence in the West since ESPN's WAC is now injured, Colorado is gone, and competitively the Pac-10 might be headed for a renewal with rival Fox.

With only ten confirmed members for 2012, what are the possibilities of BYU joining the Big 12?

While often considered a "small" school, the Cougars would instantly become the third largest member in terms of enrollment behind Texas and Texas A&M, according to Wikipedia. BYU also brings a string of football sellouts to what would be the fourth largest stadium in the Big 12.

BYU also sports world-class broadcast television facilities, which the Big 12 has already indicated its member schools are free to use at their discretion.

BYU definitely has a passionate fan base. It's not nearly the size of, say, the Longhorns fan base, but at one point the Cougars owned five of the ten largest television audiences in ESPN football history. To put it simply, BYU football brings in viewers. And after spending years relegated to the low distribution .mtn network, BYU is looking to bring Cougar football back to the masses.

Adding BYU to the Big 12 would bring the conference to eleven teams, which also opens the door to further conference expansion. By adding the Cougars, the Big 12 would have the perfect opening to pursue TCU or Arkansas. And the addition of the Salt Lake City market would effectively draw a line in the sand against the Pac 10's television plans.

Sound off, guys, should the Big 12 pursue BYU?

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BYU leaving Mountain West, single-handily destroys WAC

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 20:12:46 -0500

And the conference shakeups continue....

Reports claim that BYU is leaving the Mountain West Conference and will become a football independent, starting in the 2011 season. The expected announcement, which is said to be pending the approval of the LDS Church, might (might!) make the Cougars "the Notre Dame of the west." MWC Commissioner Craig Thompson is pretty much speechless.

In a pre-emptive move to keep Boise State committed to join the MWC, the Mountain West will expand to include Fresno State and Nevada, both from the WAC.

With the departure of Nevada and Fresno State, the WAC is left with just six members for 2011, two less than the NCAA requires. The only plan - for now - seems to be for the WAC to sue both Nevada and Fresno State.

Ironically enough, the reports claim that the Cougars were to join the WAC in all non-football sports, but - with only six confirmed members for 2011 - the WAC does not have enough members to be recognized as a conference by the NCAA. In other words, BYU may have single-handily destroyed the WAC by leaving the MWC... only to find itself headed back MWC in all other sports.

What does this mean for the MWC and BYU as it relates to the BCS? Fanblogs alum Ben Prather sounds off.

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2010 USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll

Sun, 08 Aug 2010 15:30:18 -0500

2010 2010 USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll

Rank Team (first-place votes) 2009 record Points Final 2009 rank

1. Alabama (55) 14-0 1,469 1
2. Ohio State (4) 11-2 1,392 5
3. Florida 13-1 1,245 3
4. Texas 13-1 1,240 2
5. Boise State 14-0 1,215 4
6. Virginia Tech 10-3 1,052 10
7. TCU 12-1 1,051 6
8. Oklahoma 8-5 1,035 NR
9. Nebraska 10-4 1,001 14
10. Iowa 11-2 952 7
11. Oregon 10-3 940 11
12. Wisconsin 10-3 778 16
13. Miami (Fla.) 9-4 728 19
14. Penn State 11-2 508 8
15. Pittsburgh 10-3 492 15
16. LSU 9-4 476 17
17. Georgia Tech 11-3 455 13
18. North Carolina 8-5 445 NR
19. Arkansas 8-5 438 NR
20. Florida State 7-6 374 NR
21. Georgia 8-5 312 NR
22. Oregon State 8-5 263 NR
23. Auburn 8-5 260 NR
24t. Utah 10-3 169 18
24t. West Virginia 9-4 169 22

Others receiving votes

Cincinnati (12-1) 135; Houston (10-4) 76; Brigham Young (11-2) 66; Arizona (8-5) 65; Mississippi (9-4) 48; Clemson (9-5) 44; Stanford (8-5) 41; Connecticut (8-5) 40; Notre Dame (6-6) 38; South Carolina (7-6) 38; Washington (5-7) 26; Missouri (8-5) 23; Navy (10-4) 12; Oklahoma State (9-4) 11; Boston College (8-5) 10; Michigan State (6-7) 10; Arizona State (4-8) 6; California (8-5) 6; Texas Tech (9-4) 5; South Florida (8-5) 4; Texas A&M (6-7) 3; Northwestern (8-5) 2; Temple (9-4) 2; Central Michigan (12-2) 1; Mississippi State (5-7) 1; Nevada (8-5) 1; Northern Illinois (7-6) 1; Southern Methodist (8-5) 1.

Alabama defends their national championship from last year by starting #1 this year, exactly like Florida did last year. The SEC has six teams in the preseason poll, the ACC has five, the Big 10 has four (not counting Nebraska yet) , the Big 12 has three, the Pac 10 two, and the Big East two.

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Fanblogs Open Thread: Realignment-ageddon Edition

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 12:23:46 -0500

With today's official announcement of Colorado to the Pac10 conference and the expected announcement of Nebraska to the Big10 conference (which officially makes it a Big12, don't you think?)... it would seem that the summer realignment-ageddon has officially begun.

Here's a quick what we know, what we can surmise....

- Colorado is officially joining the Pac10. It's unclear as to whether the Pac10 intends to hold at 11 teams, but we should expect the Pac10 to seek to add at least one additional member. For years the argument against expansion centered around the round-robin schedule format and - with 11 schools - that format is officially out the window for college football. Adding one more school would give the conference the option to conduct a CFB championship game in some of the largest television markets in the country. Does the Pac10 stop at 12 (Texas??) or expand further with Big12/MWC/WAC teams???

- The Big10 will have 12 teams with the addition of Nebraska. Will they stand pat at 12 teams or expand to 16 as had been rumored?

- The SEC has said that they will not sit idly by if the Big10 expands. Sports Illustrated has confirmed that the SEC has held discussions with Texas A&M. Is that prelude to further SEC expansion? Who, in addition to the Aggies, are on the SEC radar?

- The ACC & Big East seem to be awfully quiet. Are they targets or could a merger be on the table for the two conferences?

- The MWC will not offer membership to Boise State at this time, setting themselves up to be the home of any Big12 refugees. Is the MWC destined to become a BCS conference by default?

DISCUSS!!!

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New bowl rules to open more doors to 6-6 teams

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 19:53:36 -0500

The NCAA committee that oversees rules changes has approved a measure brought forward by Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe allowing bowl committees to give equal consideration to teams with 6-6 records when evaluating at-large bids.

At first glance, it would seem to reward teams that played a tougher schedule rather than padding their record with cupcakes. The change would also give bowls more flexibility to create the most interesting matchup, potentially boosting revenues for struggling bowl committees.

Matt Sanderson, co-founder of Playoff PAC, told the San Diego Union Times that the rule could allow bowls with open slots for at-large teams to select power-conference teams with 6-6 records over smaller-conference teams with winning records.

Sanderson points to this season's GMAC Bowl, which took 9-3 Troy as an at-large team. Under the revised rules, the GMAC Bowl could have offered the at-large slot to 6-6 Notre Dame.

While the new provision still needs an OK by the greater NCAA, most rule revisions that make it out of committee are approved.

Suffice to say... no one wants to see a bad 6-6 team stink it up in a marquee bowl game. The reality is that - with new bowls coming on in Yankee Stadium and the Cotton Bowl - there are going to be 70 teams in bowl games this year. If a bowl needs to dig deep and get an at-large team, I would prefer them to create the most interesting game they can.

No disrespect intended, but I would *much* rather see a hypothetical 6-6 Southern Cal as an at-large against Alabama, for example, over a 7-5 Louisiana Monroe.

Just sayin.

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2009-2010 College Football Bowl Game Television Schedule

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:09:51 -0500

Despite what you may hear from skeptics, there's no better season in all of sports than college football bowl season and the complete television schedule for the bowl games is right here on Fanblogs, brought to you by BangTheBook.com.

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Date/Time/TV	Bowl	Site	Matchup
Saturday Dec. 19 2 :30 pm ET ESPN	New Mexico Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Albuquerque, NM University Stadium	Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Saturday Dec. 19 8:00 pm ET ESPN	St. Petersburg Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	St. Petersburg, FL Tropicana Field	Rutgers vs. Central Florida
Sunday Dec. 20 8:00 pm ET ESPN	R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	New Orleans, LA Louisiana Superdome	Southern Miss vs. Middle Tenn St
Tuesday Dec. 22 8:00 pm ET ESPN	MAACO Bowl Las Vegas Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Las Vegas, NV Sam Boyd Stadium	BYU vs. Oregon State
Wednesday Dec. 23 8:00 pm ET ESPN	San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Diego, CA Qualcomm Stadium	Utah vs. Cal
Thursday Dec. 24 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Honolulu, HI Aloha Stadium	SMU vs. Nevada
Saturday Dec. 26 4:30 pm ET ESPN	Meineke Car Care Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Charlotte, NC Bank of America Stadium	North Carolina vs. Pitt
Saturday Dec. 26 5 :00 pm ET ESPN	Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Detroit, MI Ford Field	Ohio U vs. Marshall
Saturday Dec. 26 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Emerald Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Francisco, CA AT&T Park	Boston College vs. USC
Sunday Dec. 27 8:15 pm ET ESPN	Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Nashville, TN LP Field	Clemson vs. Kentucky
Monday Dec. 28 5:00 pm ET ESPN	AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Shreveport, LA Independence Stadium	Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Tuesday Dec. 29 4:30 pm ET ESPN	EagleBank Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Washington, DC RFK Stadium	Temple vs. UCLA
Tuesday Dec. 29 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Champs Sports Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Orlando, FL Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium	Miami vs. Wisconsin
Wednesday Dec. 30 4:30 pm ET ESPN	Roady's Humanitarian Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Boise, ID Bronco Stadium	Bowling Green vs. Idaho
Wednesday Dec. 30 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Pacific Life Holiday Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Diego, CA Qualcomm Stadium	Nebraska vs. Arizona
Thursday Dec. 31 2:00 pm ET NFL Network	Texas Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Houston, TX Reliant Stadium	Missouri vs. Navy
Thursday Dec. 31 Time TBA ESPN	Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Fort Worth, TX Amon G. Carter Stadium	Air Force vs. Houston
Thursday Dec. 31 12:00 pm ET CBS	Brut Sun Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	El Paso, TX Sun Bowl Stadium	Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Thursday Dec. 31 5:30 pm ET NFL Network	Insight Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Tempe, AZ Sun Devil Stadium	Minnesota vs. Iowa State
Thursday Dec. 31 7:30 pm ET ESPN	Chick-fil-A Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Atlanta, GA Georgia Dome	Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
Friday Jan. 1 11:00 am ET ESPN	Outback Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Tampa, FL Raymond James Stadium	Auburn vs. Northwestern
Friday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET CBS	Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	FSU vs. West Virginia
Friday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET ABC	Capital One Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Orlando, FL Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium	Penn State vs. LSU
Friday Jan. 1 5:00 pm ET ABC	Rose Bowl presented by Citi Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Pasadena, CA Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs. Oregon
Friday Jan. 1 8:30 pm ET FOX	Allstate Sugar Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	New Orleans, LA Superdome	Florida vs. Cincinnati
Saturday Jan. 2 12:00 pm ET ESPN2	International Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Toronto, Canada Rogers Centre	South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
Saturday Jan. 2 2 :00 pm ET ESPN	PapaJohns.com Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Birmingham, AL Legion Field	Connecticut vs. South Carolina
Saturday Jan. 2 2:00 pm ET FOX	AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Arlington, TX Cowboys Stadium	Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Saturday Jan. 2 5:30 pm ET ESPN	AutoZone Liberty Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Memphis, TN Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium	East Carolina vs. Arkansas
Saturday Jan. 2 9 :00 pm ET ESPN	Valero Alamo Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Antonio, TX Alamodome	Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Monday Jan. 4 8:00 pm ET FOX	Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Glendale, AZ University of Phoenix Stadium	TCU vs. Boise State
Tuesday Jan. 5 8:00 pm ET FOX	FedEx Orange Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Miami, FL Dolphin Stadium	Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
Wednesday Jan. 6 7 :00 pm ET ESPN	GMAC Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Mobile, AL Ladd Peebles Stadium	Troy vs. Central Michigan
Thursday Jan. 7 8:00 pm ET ABC	BCS National Championship Game Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Pasadena, CA Rose Bowl	Alabama vs. Texas

The 2009 college football season will be capped by exciting college football bowl games, including the 2009 Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, the 2009 Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona, the 2009 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana, the 2009 Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida and the 2009 BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena, CA.

The best college football teams from the major conferences, including the Big10 conference, Big 12 conference, Pac 10 conference, ACC conference, Big East conference, SEC conference, and Mountain West conference will face off in college football bowl games throughout December and into January.

If you're looking for updated matchups, odds, insights, betting lines and online wagering for the college football bowl games, please be sure to try BangTheBook.com.

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Gator Bowl to match SEC vs Big Ten; more bowl shakeups ensue

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 10:43:42 -0500

After months of wrangling and having the ACC reject the bowl's latest proposal, the Gator Bowl is finalizing a four-year agreement that will pit an SEC team against a Big 10 team in the 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons.

Officials from the SEC have already confirmed their participation to The Birmingham News. Under the terms, the Gator will get "at least" the sixth pick of bowl-eligible SEC teams. The pick position could vary on a year-to-year basis, but more details would be announced once the Big 10 announces its bowl agreements next week.

The Gator Bowl is also in final talks to become part of a broadcast deal with ESPN, leaving CBS, in a move that could signal the end of the exclusive broadcast window that has been previously negotiated for the Capital One Bowl.

With the Cotton Bowl moving to January 2nd, the result of the Gator Bowl agreement means that all three non-BCS games on New Years Day will feature SEC vs Big 10 matchups.

With the end of the ACC / Big East relationship in the Gator Bowl, the ACC and Big East have signed an agreement with the Champs Bowl which will essentially recreates the conferences past Gator relationship in Orlando.

Under the terms to begin with the 2010 season, the ACC will send its #3 selection to the Champs Bowl to face the Big East's #2 selection or Notre Dame. The Champs can select Notre Dame once over the four year agreement if the Irish have seven wins and are within two wins of the #2 Big East school.

With the Gator Bowl now aligned with SEC, the Independence Bowl finds itself as odd-man out in the SEC bowl mix after 15 years with the conference. Instead, the Independence Bowl will look to sign a new bowl matchup between the ACC and Mountain West.

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Round 5: MWC - Put up or Shut up: WAC

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:04:39 -0500

Week 4 only saw one game against a BCS opponent by a MWC team that no one expected to put up a fight. With several games against the WAC this was a chance for the MWC to separate themselves from the rest of the conferences begging for BCS scraps.

And they failed.

Using the emulated BCS automatic qualification standards the WAC leads the MWC from 2006-2008. 2008 was the only year in the past 3 where the MWC outperformed the WAC. Currently the gap between Boise State and TCU is roughly equal to the value of the MWC having a second team in the top 25. This week will help shape how they rank in the third criteria, average ranking of all teams in teh BCS computeres.

Top:
TCU handled their historic SWC rival SMU, as is the norm this decade. Few questions were answered in this game and TCU remains as big a question mark at this point this year as Utah was at this point last year.

Utah was off so we gained little new information, hough Oregon continued to redeem themselves.

BYU handled their instate rival Utah State by the exact score Utah beat them to open the season. Like the weekends for TCU and Utah we know about as much as we did last year.

Middle:
Air Force looks to have lost the commander in cheif trophy to Navy again this year. The possibility remains that Army could surprise everyone and claim it, adding a loss in the MWC only remaining OOC game of the regular season.

CSU lost a close battle to a surprising Idaho team.

UNLV got destroyed by Nevada, who looked like they spent the first four weeks looking ahead to this one game.

Bottom:
SDSU prevented New Mexico State from upending two MWC teams in as many weeks.

Wyoming also secured a win in a close game at Florida Atlantic.

New Mexico showed up and got payed by Texas Tech.

Summary
The MWC is 5-9 vs. BCS opponents. This gives them a PCT of 0.357, less than the 0.400 required by their own standards for a BCS automatic qualification.

Their 6-4 record over the WAC should give them a slight lead in the BCS computers for the third criteria, but prevent them from being anywhere near warranting a BCS automatic qualification at this time.

So what now?
The MWC's case for this season will ride on whether they can again get 3 teams into the top 25, or one into a BCS bowl. TCU could make for an interesting race with Boise State, but more than likely Boise State would have to lose one to open the door.

If Boise State goes to a BCS bowl, this would give the WAC 3 years of BCS participation to the MWC's 2. If they are selected over an undefeated TCU, who beat them in last years Poinsettia Bowl, this would help atone for Boise State being left out for Utah in 2004 and 2008, a team they have beat the last three meetings.

Utah can not lose to both TCU and BYU and getinto the top 25. A loss in the final week to Utah likely puts BYU out of the top 25 as well, unless they beat TCU first. The only way three MWC teams finish ranked is if they split and all beat every other MWC team.

Not much more will change until the bowls are announced. At that time I will continue with round 6, followed by the final count after the bowls.

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Washington drops future games with BYU

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:36:49 -0500

Not sure if this is a sign of where BYU football is or where Washington football is, but - either way - the Huskies have opted out of two future games against the Cougars, according to the Salt Lake Tribune.

The two schools were originally scheduled to play in Seattle in 2011 and at BYU in 2012. Next season, Washington will travel to Provo for a return game from the contest played in Husky Stadium on Sept. 6, 2008. The Cougars have a 3-4 record in previous meetings versus Washington, including a 28-27 victory in 2008.

I think it's a shame that the Huskies won't be playing two more against BYU. This has all the makings of a pretty balanced series. That said... BYU now has two open dates to go out and land a quality BCS opponent.

Game on!

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Round 4: MWC - Put up or Shut up: MWC

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 23:51:50 -0500

Week 4 went saw the MWC recover somewhat from a horrible week 3 performance but lacked any big surprises. Several opponents that have been used to measure MWC teams have had serious perception changes that might influence MWC team's perception.

Top
TCU secured another win in the MWC's marque game of the week. Clemson is a solid team but at this point looks to be close to Georgia Tech who could not manage Miami. TCU climbs into the top 10 in Coaches Poll and narrowed its gap behind Boise State in all polls.

Utah got some credibility back when Oregon manhandled California. A solid win over Louisville did not hurt. Losing RB Matt Asiata for the season might limit their ability down the stretch. Utah should be ranked in the top 25.

BYU handled their first conference game by ending CSU's undefeated season. Their loss to FSU looked more critical with FSU's loss to USF. Oklahoma has not faced any stiff competition since BYU and their game against Miami this week could bring some clarity to this picture. If Miami wins big it could indicate that BYU looks to be behind TCU and Utah again this year.

Middle
UNLV lost a road trip to Wyoming in their conference opener. This raises questions about where these two teams stand, as Wyoming had been looking like a team the MWC would rather keep solidly in the bottom by OOC play.

Air Force took care of business against SDSU.

Bottom
New Mexico lost to their in state rival New Mexico Statein what looks like a sinking ship.

Summary
2-0 vs. BCS opponents is never a bad week. While this season has taken a step back from the levels achieved by the MWC in 2008, it is still better than where they were any year prior. All in all, i'd say the MWC has not lived up to their claims in 2009, and will need a good showing in the bowls to change this.

So far the MWC is 5-8 vs. BCS opponents. The MWC's proposal required conferences to maintain a record above 0.400 to determine automatic qualifications. With one game remaining this will require a win for this year, or a winning record vs. BCS opponents in the bowls. From 2006-2009 the MWC is 27-32. The MWC would have to lose the next 8 games to fall below 0.400 over a four year window.

Preview
Week 5 features the last round of significant OOC play before all teams settle into the conference schedules. Only one OOC game remains after this week (Army at Air Force). Anything worse than 2 losses would be bad for week 5, but 5 games will be close and one loss appears certain.

This week starts with BYU vs. Utah State on their traditional Friday game time. This game is held on Friday because the LDS church has general conference this Saturday.

Air Force will play Navy in a game that should determine the Commander in Chief trophy.

New Mexico faces Texas Tech in the MWC's last regular season game against BCS opponents. New Mexico is not Houston.

UNLV travels to Nevada to face their in state rival, who will be hungry to regain credibility at their expense.

Wyoming gets to travel to Florida Atlantic for a chance to build their claim to join the middle of the MWC.

TCU hosts rival SMU in what should be a solid win.

SDSU hosts New Mexico State, who would love to secure two consecutive wins vs. MWC opponents.

CSU travels to Idaho for an unexpected battle of 3-1 teams. Could the Vandals be a challenger for Boise State this year? The winner of this game might even get a vote or two in the ORV section of the polls.

Utah plays the mighty BYE, who manages to play dozens of teams each week.

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Round 3: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:26:09 -0500

Wow.

For a MWC fan this weekend was devastating. While not the end of the world, the MWC's bite has failed to live up to its bark in week 3. The top of the MWC, its alleged strength, took serious loses and the middle and bottom did nothing to mitigate these losses.

While last week was a minor set back, this week set the MWC back beyond the gain for BYU's upset of Oklahoma and started to cut into the credibility from Utah's Sugar Bowl win.

Top
BYU hosted FSU as a 7 point favorite and lost 54-28. As a result, a chunk of their turf will now reside in Tallahassee. They also drop from the top 10 to near #25. Somehow they got a bit of a USC effect and remain above the team that beat them in the coaches poll. This year BYU's defense began shifting their focus to increase speed. This game showed they still have a lot of work to do here.

Oregon was favored to beat Utah by 4 and covered with a 31-24 win. Utah struggled in the second quarter to get any kind of momentum but managed to close the 14 point gap in the second half. This game made both teams look like they had some serious work to do before going into their conference slate.

TCU came out sloppy against Texas State and allowed them to stay within 14 until TCU went on a 21 point run in the fourth quarter. I can only hope they were looking towards this weeks game at Clemson.

Middle
UNLV scored one of the bright moments for the conference by coming back to beat Hawaii 34-33, helping to verify that the middle of the MWC is better than the middle of the WAC.

Air Force won their first conference game against New Mexico 37-13. Frankly, if New Mexico wins a game in conference this year it will be bad for the conference. They took this spot from SDSU this year.

At the start of the season CSU and Nevada looked like it might be a good test for CSU, but Nevada has struggled mightily since then and the 35-20 win by CSU is diminished. This does solidify their place in the middle of the conference, which was questionable to start the year.

Bottom
SDSU lost their road trip to Idaho 34-20. Apparently the bottom of the WAC is competitive with the bottom of the MWC.

Wyoming was shut out by Colorado 24-0, and Toledo put up 50+ on them? Wyoming is almost right with New Mexico

Summary
The MWC went 0-3 against BCS conference members. While last week brought the middle into question, this week took a bite out of the top of the conference. The MWC has lost the credibility it earned the opening week.

It appears the MWC was enjoying a housing market like bubble which has now burst. The result is that rankings, like housing prices, have restored to their proper market value.

I compared this years week 3 simulated BCS standings with those of the past 2 years. The non-AQ conferences went from 2 to 4 to 4 teams in the top 25 while the MWC went from 0 to 2 to 2. The MWC appears to be near where it sat last year after TCU lost to Oklahoma, which is still far better than they were any year prior.

They will need to finish strong and have a solid bowl season to avoid being dismissed completely.

Must wins
The MWC only has 3 out of conference games this week and really needs to win them all to gain credibility.
2 out of three will maintain the current meh. None of these games will come easy.

TCU travels to the much anticipated game against Clemson.

Utah hosts Louisville in the only game between the Big East and the MWC this season. This game will draw far too much attention in the MWC vs. Big East debate, no matter how the game goes.

New Mexico host in state rival New Mexico State in a largely one sided rivalry. New Mexico is way down as they break in a new coaching staff and should make a game of it. A win here would reduce how bad New Mexico, the likely bottom of the MWC, is perceived.

Conference play
Undefeated CSU is getting a few points in the polls and could make a significant jump with a win over BYU, at the cost of knocking BYU out of the top 25. Getting a fourth team into top 25 striking distance would be a huge plus for the MWC.

Air Force and UNLV should handle SDSU and Wyoming respectively.

Closing
The next installment will be next Tuesday night with the final regular season installment the following week, as only one game out of conference remains after that point.

Once bowl schedules are announced an installment will follow, and the concluding installment will come after the bowls are finished.

P.S. TE and WEA, we need some more SEC and ACC threads. What gives? ; )

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Round 2: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:22:50 -0500

This week the top MWC teams took a step back from the spotlight and gave an opportunity for the middle of the pack to step up and earn a share of the spotlight. They failed. At least the MWC was spared any catastrophic losses. Last week also helped clarify the middle from the bottom of the MWC.

Top:
BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility.

Middle:
Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games.

UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach's reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step.

CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo.

Bottom:
Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don't think Texas covered the 33 points.

SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss.

New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table.

Summary:
The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season.

Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is.

Expected wins:
BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC's favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls.

TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah...

Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week.

Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State.

Close calls:
CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC.

SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game.

Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC.

New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.

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simulated BCS Standings: Week 2

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:37:44 -0500

Our friend Samuel Chi at BCS Guru has published this weeks simulated BCS standings. For a more detailed explanation of how the ranking is simulated follow the link provided.

For an explanation for why the computers are hating on Florida see his writeup for the current week.

Bold indicates the highest ranked teams from automatic qualifying(AQ) conferences, a strike represent additional teams from the SEC and Big 12. Teams vying for a final AQ awarded to the highest ranked team from a conference without an AQ if at least one makes the final top 12 are in italics. The remaining teams (including those in italics not selected) are fighting for the last remaining BCS openings. Gaps represent large differences in the BCS standigns.

1) USC 0.8727

2) Texas 0.7882
3) Alabama 0.7870
4) ~~Florida~~ 0.7540

5) ~~LSU~~ 0.6655
6) California 0.6460
7) Boise State 0.6097
8) Penn State 0.5992
9) BYU 0.5987

10) ~~Ole Miss~~ 0.5240

11) Ohio State 0.4332
12) ~~Oklahoma~~ 0.4050
13) Georgia Tech 0.3727
14) TCU 0.3651
===BCS Eligibility Line===
15) Utah 0.3505
16) Virginia Tech 0.3500

17) ~~Oklahoma State~~ 0.2552
18) North Carolina 0.2460
19) ~~Nebraska~~ 0.2176
20) Cincinnati 0.1979
===Watch Line===
21) Houston 0.1880
22) ~~Georgia~~ 0.1697
23) Miami(FL) 0.1467
24) ~~Missouri~~ 0.1375
25) Pittsburgh 0.1284

As usual the Big 12 and SEC dominate the standings with 5 teams each, many near the top.

Currently three teams from outside the BCS AQ conferences have crossed the #14 ranking needed to become BCS eligible. Two have made it into the top 10. A total of five are present in the top 25. This all suggests that a robust push by the MWC, WAC and C-USA to earn their AQ is underway.

If BYU wins this week against FSU they should take the lead from Boise State and hold it until they lose a game.

California (or USC) and Ohio State (or Penn State) are the only obstacles blocking the BCS from being forced to take a second team from outside the six AQ conferences. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are on deck to fill any vacancies, despite the media bombardment directed at the ACC so far this year.

The ACC certainly is not looking to be as even across the board as it was last year. If they are, it will be serious trouble for them.

The Big East also advanced further into the standings with Cincinnati entering the watch list and Pittsburgh joining them in the top 25, reflecting a strong early performance against mostly outmatched opponents. This week should be a good barometer of how good the Big East really is. Have we all really forgotten 2006 and 2007 already?

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