Man, nothing takes your mind off BCS-bitching like having your team work within the system (without shooting the bastards) and winning it all. Okay, except for maybe having to then defend your national championship winning team from every out of left field attack that comes down the road. That really takes your mind off of the BCS and, more importantly, the playoffs. Remember those? Hey, don't take your eye off the ball or I'll have you running stadium stairs by the end of this post.

As is custom here, we discuss the fate of a FBS playoff right after the season ends, with the results of the latest BCS equation having just recently been played out for all to see and analyze. It's bad manners to discuss the subject during the season, as those who might be superstitious may believe, and no one really cares right before the season, as most fans think it's their team's year and no playoff will be necessary for them. No, immediately following the season is the perfect time for moaning about how unfair the whole system is, but admittedly, we have heard nary a peep out of the east side of the state of Alabama this go around.

Naturally, with me being an SEC fan, playoff talk sometimes falls on deaf ears, as we believe our conference schedule to be one de facto triple-elimination playoff onto itself. (drop more than two regular season conference games or the CCG and you are virtually guaranteed not to win the conference) Playoffs are what's needed for all those other conferences to sort their posers from the players. In other words, SEC fans may have their desire for a CFB playoff diminished because we believe the SEC champ to be a truly credible and deserving champion in their own right and everyone else is just playing for the right to meet us to play for all the marbles. And with our conference winner playing in the last five national championship games, apparently SEC fans aren't the only ones who think that. But playoff, schmayoff, southeasterners? No, not quite.

I truly believe that a playoff will be most beneficial to our sport when we finally get one, and to the SEC in particular. As we've discussed before, there are a few basic tenets that must exist in FBS college football for a playoff to have any chance of taking root. That's not to say that even those aren't subject to modification, revision or outright reversal. Some of my own thinking has done a 180 recently and we must always realize that CFB is constantly evolving--something so very epitomized in the Great Conference Land Grab of 2010.

Conference Championships Will Be the First Round of any Future Playoff: This is what I've been preaching for years now, and the light was finally seen by two of the old-guard BCS conferences in the biggest move to hit our sport in decades with the aforementioned Great Conference Land Grab of 2010, as the Big 10 and PAC 10 expanded--to the detriment of the Big 12 and possibly the rest of us. Expansion for those two wasn't as big a story as the defection of Nebraska and Colorado from the Big 12 (and the subsequent whoring out of itself by Texas, but that's another story).

Simply enveloping mid-majors like Utah wouldn't have ruffled any feathers, but with BCS conferences being redistricted, a panic almost ensued as the rest of the great powers looked to protect their turf in an attempt to form mega-conferences should the expansion have gone supernova. Wasn't that how World War I erupted? We may never know how close we came to essentially halving the number of BCS conferences into geographically-incorrect Pangea-esque blobs, but I think it's safe to say that expansion for the sake of having the conference championship game and it's requisite share of the limelight was finally realized in one great-big pigskin epiphany.

Perhaps we should consider ourselves lucky that the Big 12 was the only big casualty, and console ourselves that the net gain of only one CCG in FBS was probably worth it. With Texas flirting with any and all suitors in order to preserve itself the lion's share of revenue from the reborn remnants of the conference it more than anyone tore apart, those who believe in karma might see justice in their 5-7 season. Regardless, the Big 12 didn't have time to draft additional teams and it might behoove the big two teams in the Lone Star state to drop their snobbishness and consider allowing some of the old Southwestern conference stragglers and other proven state programs to form the reconstituted Big 12. A playoff might depend on that very scenario. However, the defection of TCU to the Big East says more about the perilous politics of Texas football than just about anything else and we might not want to hold our breath waiting for our Lone Star brethren.

Will our first playoff be a round-robin of strictly conference champions? It's hard to say because there's still such a lack of parity between the BCS conferences in any given year. One conference could have 2-3 teams that are capable of playing for and winning a national title, like the Big 10 last year. Maybe a playoff might grant at-large teams when a conference pares it's participants down to two schools--like the current BCS bowl rules allow. Otherwise, it might not be beyond the realm of possibility to have a conference like the SEC to have three schools in a 8-team playoff.

Polls Ain't Going Anywhere:  Face it. Most of the complaints about the BCS are actually complaints about the polls, as the BCS just uses the data the polls provide. We're never going to have a true playoff, won on the field--like in the NFL. With 120 teams and counting,  the polls will be around with us forever, to sift through and seed the teams properly, so get used to them. As a matter of fact, every time you complain about a poll, another one is born, to give us more choices and consistency in the results. Learn them, live them, love them. I'd be happy with a dozen polls in the BCS formula, but not stand-alone ones that crown their own champion. It could be like 1973 again.

The BCS is here to stay, too:  In a strict interpretation, the BCS has been wildly successful in what it was designed to do--pair the two top-ranked teams in the nation in a bowl game that is essentially a 1-game playoff. Although a future playoff will be a little bit more complicated than the binary BCS code we're currently stuck with, the power of the BCS cannot be ignored and I do not believe it will be scrapped to be replaced by a different governing body. The name-recognition it currently enjoys, for better or for worse, makes it the ideal mechanism to remake itself into a rudimentary playoff when it is time. 

The First Playoff We Get Will Be 4-6 Teams:More than likely four, as sufficient time must pass for CFB to grow at a desired pace and not diminish the product by over-doing it. Hey, March-Madness didn't start out at 64 teams, and those who think that the sport of football is ideally suited for a playoff where the national champion has to play and win six games--half the current regular season--are delusional. We'll start with one that has two or three games, possibly with two byes, and we may stick with that for years before expanding to a field of eight. Then we'll be there for decades or forever, whichever comes first. It took over 100 years to get to the forerunner of the BCS. Before that, it was just pot-luck.

The Playoff Must Follow the Money: Money is the lifeblood of any sport, and an eventual FBS playoff system of sufficient size will financially make the basketball tourney look like a booger in comparison. TV revenue will obviously guide the hand of the formation of the playoff and will begin in 2014 when the BCS broadcasting rights will be up for renewal. By then, everything will be on the negotiating table and I think we will finally see college presidents start to open up to the idea of a playoff.

Could we possibly see a move by a bigger player, such as ESPN/ABC, to wrap up the TV contract for a very long time? Raise your hand if you were thankful that the BCS had been moved from Fox and their predominately NFL, clueless-about -college-football crew over to ESPN who makes CFB feel more at home. Naturally, consolidating power in just one network could foster the implementation of an agenda, one that some fans feel is already there with some of the networks, and we'd all have to wonder about what was best for the sport and our conferences, with some whose contracts might rival a new BCS deal. Regardless of which of the major players wind up with the contracts, you can bet that the desire to possibly double-down by adding a playoff will be discussed in earnest.

The Bowls Don't Have to be Part of a Playoff:Except for the last round(s). Initially, it sounds nifty to try and work every no-name bowl to be the sponsor of one round of a mega-tournament, but the logistics of having teams travelling constantly to unfamiliar areas of the country to advance in the playoff just doesn't work for football. It would be like playing 2-4 bowls back-to-back, and would wreck havoc on fans' and schools' wallets, not to mention the players, whom the college presidents would protect from such a fool's errand.

Besides, we have two many loser bowls as it is. This past bowl season, with games swollen with TV revenue and palty attendance, it would be embarrassing for the sport to have the first round of 16 games played in the San Diego County Credit Union or Boise Humanitarian bowls or whatever the name de jeur was. Besides, all the bowls we need are already in place. The Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and Rose could serve as venues for the semi-finals, with the rotating plus one for the championship game. The other bowls could operate as usual, with the earlier rounds of the bowls having been provided by conference title games and home football games for higher-seeded teams. Only a possible break-out by a bowl such as the Cotton or maybe the Chick Fil A bowl to ante up enough to qualify as a BCS venue could alter such a proposal.

So there are my continuing thoughts about the present situation and conventional wisdom of our eventual playoff. What are some of yours? How close will any of us be by the time the first one rolls out? I'm pretty sure we'll all still be here when the time comes. 

BYU's best-case scenario is for the Big 12 to expand and call the Cougars. But even then, BYU would need the fit to be right (no Sunday play, use of BYU-TV). BYU's mission, the bigger picture demanded by its sponsoring religion, dictates the facilities on campus receive significant usage. The Big 12 is an ESPN conference and it understands the need for a presence in the West since ESPN's WAC is now injured, Colorado is gone, and competitively the Pac-10 might be headed for a renewal with rival Fox.

With only ten confirmed members for 2012, what are the possibilities of BYU joining the Big 12?

While often considered a "small" school, the Cougars would instantly become the third largest member in terms of enrollment behind Texas and Texas A&M, according to Wikipedia. BYU also brings a string of football sellouts to what would be the fourth largest stadium in the Big 12.

BYU also sports world-class broadcast television facilities, which the Big 12 has already indicated its member schools are free to use at their discretion.

BYU definitely has a passionate fan base. It's not nearly the size of, say, the Longhorns fan base, but at one point the Cougars owned five of the ten largest television audiences in ESPN football history. To put it simply, BYU football brings in viewers. And after spending years relegated to the low distribution .mtn network, BYU is looking to bring Cougar football back to the masses.

Adding BYU to the Big 12 would bring the conference to eleven teams, which also opens the door to further conference expansion. By adding the Cougars, the Big 12 would have the perfect opening to pursue TCU or Arkansas. And the addition of the Salt Lake City market would effectively draw a line in the sand against the Pac 10's television plans.

Sound off, guys, should the Big 12 pursue BYU?

According to The Dallas Morning News, Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott confirmed that the University of Texas has declined an invitation to join the conference.

In a brief phone conversation, Scott said: "We've been informed by University of Texas president Bill Powers that Texas will stay with the Big 12. We have not received definitive details about this decision."

While a few details still need to be worked out, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe has a deal in place to keep the 10 remaining teams in the conference.

Under the new structure, the ten teams will play in a round-robin format, ensuring that each team plays one another in the regular season. The annual championship game that was a hallmark of the founding of the Big 12 will not be played under the new structure.

To boost revenues, the Big 12 will sign a new television agreement (rumored to be with Fox Sports) in 2011 estimated to be worth $14-$17 million per year to most conference teams; however, the conference will continue to split revenues based on appearances, making the deal worth as much as $20 million per year for teams like Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M who's games are broadcast more often.

Schools will also have the discretion to launch their own television networks, an arrangement which could be worth an addition $3-$5 million per year to Texas.

The new league agreement will also include a very, very substantial penalty for any school that splits from the conference.

UPDATE

Texas A&M and Oklahoma have confirmed that they will stay in the Big 12.

The Pac10 has also released an official statement:

“University of Texas President Bill Powers has informed us that the 10 remaining schools in the Big 12 Conference intend to stay together. We are excited about the future of the Pac-10 Conference and we will continue to evaluate future expansion opportunities under the guidelines previously set forth by our Presidents and Chancellors.”

Details on this breaking story will be updated as more information becomes available.

According to multiple sources, Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe has been working behind the scenes to line prospective television deals, if the remaining Big 12 schools (sans Colorado and Nebraska) would remain in the conference.

As first reported on Rivals sister-site Orangebloods.com, Beebe has proposed the following for the ten remaining Big 12 teams:

- A new television contract in 2011 comparable to the SEC's deal, bumping revenues from the $7-$10 million per year to $14-$17 million per year. The numbers would be higher - perhaps as much as $20 million per year - for teams that appear on television more frequently, such as Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M.

- Each of the ten remaining schools would receive $2 million from the buyout fees being paid to the Big12 by Colorado and Nebraska, with the conference keeping nothing

- The Big 12 would allow individual schools to launch their own television networks, such as the Longhorn Network that Texas has been considering, without sharing revenues with the member schools or the conference

- The Big 12 would introduce a round-robin format, with each school playing one another every year.

- The remaining schools could elect to petition the NCAA to permit a conference championship game with only 10 teams; however, it's widely speculated that - since the Big 12 coaches have never been in favor of a championship game - the conference may forgo the game.

And it appears that "The Beebe Plan" is gaining momentum. While Texas A&M was said to be looking to secure a spot in the SEC, all ten of the remaining Big 12 schools sat down for a conference call this afternoon to review the arrangement. According to Orangebloods, the Texas Longhorns are leading the charge to keep the conference intact.

As they say... stay tuned!

UPDATE

IT'S OFFICIAL: Texas staying in Big12. Press conference @ 11a tomorrow. Pac10 reports UT has declined invite. Longhorns reps have confirmed that Big12 will stay together as 10 teams.]]> Comment on Deal in works to save Big 12...

Here's a quick what we know, what we can surmise....

- Colorado is officially joining the Pac10. It's unclear as to whether the Pac10 intends to hold at 11 teams, but we should expect the Pac10 to seek to add at least one additional member. For years the argument against expansion centered around the round-robin schedule format and - with 11 schools - that format is officially out the window for college football. Adding one more school would give the conference the option to conduct a CFB championship game in some of the largest television markets in the country. Does the Pac10 stop at 12 (Texas??) or expand further with Big12/MWC/WAC teams???

- The Big10 will have 12 teams with the addition of Nebraska. Will they stand pat at 12 teams or expand to 16 as had been rumored?

- The SEC has said that they will not sit idly by if the Big10 expands. Sports Illustrated has confirmed that the SEC has held discussions with Texas A&M. Is that prelude to further SEC expansion? Who, in addition to the Aggies, are on the SEC radar?

- The ACC & Big East seem to be awfully quiet. Are they targets or could a merger be on the table for the two conferences?

- The MWC will not offer membership to Boise State at this time, setting themselves up to be the home of any Big12 refugees. Is the MWC destined to become a BCS conference by default?

DISCUSS!!!

According to sources, Nebraska is on the fence as to its future with the conference. The nine schools that are actively working to maintain the current conference, including powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma, are convinced that the league can survive the hypothetical departure of Missouri or Colorado; however, the Huskers are seen as key to the viability of the conference, given the Huskers' stature and marketability.

If these reports are accurate, then kudos to the Big 12 for not standing idly by and being held hostage by a growing list of conference suitors. I'm not exactly sure how you enforce the ultimatum without requiring members to sign a revised agreement with a substantial buyout provision, but perhaps that's what the Big 12 has in mind.

Meanwhile, with rumors of a possible Pac10 offer coming for six of the Big 12's teams, a group of at least 15 Texas legislators are working behind the scenes to ensure that Baylor is among the teams offered membership by the Pac10. Astute fans will recall that a similar move by legislators in the mid-90s that secured a place in the Big 12 for the Bears over TCU, among others.

"If you're going to have an exported commodity involved in this, do you think we're going to allow a school from outside the state of Texas to replace one of our schools in the Big 12 South? I don't think so. We're already at work on this," said a high-ranking member of the Texas Legislature who asked not to be identified.

The Texas legislators point out that Baylor is financial viable and already fields a full compliment of sports, including baseball and softball, something that cannot be said of Colorado.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect to the Pac10 rumors is the revelation that Texas AD DeLoss Dodds is the leading voice for keeping the Big 12 intact.

According to Orangebloods, Texas would have to walk away from considerable revenues resulting from its planned UT television network if the Horns joined the Pac10, given the Pac10's current television plans. And while membership in the SEC would allow UT to launch its network, Dodds does not feel the SEC fits Texas' vision academically or otherwise.

If it's true that Texas is the driving force behind maintaining the Big 12 conference, then it would seem most likely that the Big 12 will be able to survive efforts by the Pac10 and Big 10 to pilfer the league's best teams. As has been discussed before, Texas is the crown jewel in the league financially. While the members may feel that Nebraska is the key to sustainability, it's clear to me that, as Texas goes, so goes the Big 12.

While college football waits seemingly forever for the Big Ten to announce their expansion plans, The Pac-10 might be prepared to steal their thunder and send invitations out to six teams from the Big 12. Chip Brown, a former Texas beat writer for the Dallas Morning News says today on his pay site Orangeblood.com, which is sponsored by Rivals, that the Pac-10 is ready to extend invitations out to Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado as early as this weekend. Yup, that's what's known as rolling thunder.

Brown cites multiple sources on his site, which we can't see currently because of it's subscription status. This new PAC-16 will then split into two divisions, with the new kids on the block joining the Arizona teams to form one division with the remaining PAC squads forming the rest. Such a move would leave both Kansas teams, Iowa State and Baylor out in the cold, assuming you believe that Mizzo and Nebraska have already made up their minds on those alledged invitations to the Big Ten.

With both the Big 12 and SEC schools in spring meetings this week, what else could we expect to see before Sunday? Could we get a quicker confirmation from the Big 12 schools, unlike the secrecy and denials we saw from the Big Ten over their expansion? Will this event be enough for the SEC to impose the Bush Doctrine of CFB and go ahead and announce their expansion plans based on the fear of being up-ended? For you history buffs, this kind of maneuvering and posturing is what led to World War I.

Updates coming early and often!

"I'm aware of all the interest and all that's being written, but given the success that we have experienced over the past decade, we're comfortable with the position in which we find ourselves," Slive told FLORIDA TODAY on Wednesday. "Now having said that, if there's going to be a significant shift in the conference paradigm, the SEC will be strategic and thoughtful in order to maintain its position as one of the nation's premier conferences. We are watching carefully what's going on and keeping our antenna up and our eyes open as to what's going on around us."

The Wiz, who's antenna is always up, caught this piece that says Slive is doing more than just watching. It's reported that the SEC has held talks with executives from CBS Sports and outlined the conferences plan to target six teams for conference expansion.

According to Hyams, Slive told CBS executives in a recent meeting that the league’s goal would be to keep pace with a 16-team Big Ten by pursuing Texas, Texas A&M, Florida State and Clemson.

If Texas and Texas A&M cannot be lured in, then Miami and Georgia Tech will join Florida State and Clemson on the SEC’s wish list.

The post is based upon the reporting of Jimmy Hyams of WNML-AM 990 in Knoxville. Hyams, who's covered SEC sports for more than 30 years, cites anonymous sources close to CBS. Given Hyams's stature in the broadcast community, I would tend to agree that this story has some legs to it.

In looking at the "plan", the discussion around Texas and Texas A&M wouldn't be shocking to anyone. Texas represents the premiere "get" in the country and the 'Horns won't be permitted to go anywhere by the Texas Legislature unless their take perennial rival with them. The Aggies may be the little brother in the mix, but they're the lynchpin to the entire deal.

The move to bring in Texas would cement the SEC's footprint into two of the country's top ten television markets: Dallas (#5) and Houston (#10). It's unclear to me if the conference would be able to go back to ESPN and ask for more television money right away, but the long-term benefit of adding the two schools would be substantial.

As far as adding Florida State and Clemson, I get the sense that the SEC is merely the SEC keeping up with the Joneses, so to speak. The Noles and Tigers add a little more color to the conference, but don't necessarily represent a blockbuster addition in terms of potential revenue. If anything, it would be a move against the ACC to limit the conferences marketability and - in turn - keep more money on the table for the SEC. Ditto for what appears to be the backup plan of pursuing Georgia Tech and Miami.

On the flip side of the equation, I'm not convinced that the SEC would be able to land all four ACC teams, especially given the extra $7.5 million per year that the teams will now be earning from the new ACC television agreement. The ACC teams still earn less than the SEC teams, but it's no longer such a wide margin.

For it's part, the SEC is denying that any meeting has taken place; however, Hyams is standing by his reporting.

The Big Ten Conference has extended initial offers to join the league to four universities including Missouri and Nebraska from the Big 12, according to multiple sources close to the negotiations.

While nothing can be approved until the Big Ten presidents and chancellors meet the first week of June in Chicago, the league has informed the two Big 12 schools, Notre Dame and Rutgers that it would like to have them join.

The report speculates that another team could be added if Notre Dame agrees to join the conference, taking the membership to sixteen teams.

BUT... both Missouri and Nebraska are saying, "Not so fast my friends."

Missouri has expressed an interest in joining the Big Ten, but the school said Monday:

"The University of Missouri is receiving numerous inquiries related to public speculation about conference membership. MU is a member of the Big 12 Conference and will not respond to speculation about conference realignment. Mizzou continues to be grateful for all the interest shown in and support for the university."

Nebraska also has expressed an interest in jumping to the Big Ten, but refuted the report with this statement:

"We recognize the intense speculation about conference realignment and the possible impact it may have on Nebraska. Both Chancellor Harvey Perlman and Athletic Director Tom Osborne have indicated that the university would consider any opportunity that would advance the interests of the university.

"The University of Nebraska has not been offered any opportunity to move from the Big 12. We remain committed to the success of the Big 12 Conference. Until the Big Ten Conference makes and announces its decision on expansion, the University of Nebraska will have no further comment and we do not intend to continue to respond further to questions or speculations on this subject."

For the record, I don't believe the 810 WHB report for one second. Everyone knows it's Col. Mustard with the candlestick in the library.

At first glance, it would seem to reward teams that played a tougher schedule rather than padding their record with cupcakes. The change would also give bowls more flexibility to create the most interesting matchup, potentially boosting revenues for struggling bowl committees.

Matt Sanderson, co-founder of Playoff PAC, told the San Diego Union Times that the rule could allow bowls with open slots for at-large teams to select power-conference teams with 6-6 records over smaller-conference teams with winning records.

Sanderson points to this season's GMAC Bowl, which took 9-3 Troy as an at-large team. Under the revised rules, the GMAC Bowl could have offered the at-large slot to 6-6 Notre Dame.

While the new provision still needs an OK by the greater NCAA, most rule revisions that make it out of committee are approved.

Suffice to say... no one wants to see a bad 6-6 team stink it up in a marquee bowl game. The reality is that - with new bowls coming on in Yankee Stadium and the Cotton Bowl - there are going to be 70 teams in bowl games this year. If a bowl needs to dig deep and get an at-large team, I would prefer them to create the most interesting game they can.

No disrespect intended, but I would *much* rather see a hypothetical 6-6 Southern Cal as an at-large against Alabama, for example, over a 7-5 Louisiana Monroe.

Just sayin.

The Big Ten is looking at three plans: Stand pat with 11 teams, add one team (hopefully Notre Dame) or make a blockbuster move and go to 16.

"If they go to 16 and one of them is Notre Dame then we've got an entirely new ball game," a conference commissioner told me confidentially.

According to Barnhart, the Big 10 would potentially add Notre Dame and four other Big East teams. It's hard to distinguish if he has any leads on who those teams could be, but Barnhart theorizes that the target list may include Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, and UConn.

Of course this opens a whole host of other possibilities....

Where do the other Big East football schools go?

Would some mish-mash of Big East / Conference USA start a new conference?

Would the ACC expand to 16 as well by taking in the Big East leftovers?

Would the SEC expand to 16 to ensure that the conference doesn't lose its considerable negotiating advantage to the new Big 16? And, as Barnhart ponders, who would the SEC invite?

Does the SEC get aggressive and pick up the phone call Texas? That's the one school that would move the financial needle to improve the great deal the SEC already has. And if you take Texas, you have to take Texas A&M because of the politics. Does the SEC take another look at Florida State and Miami and see if those schools would be interested in leaving the ACC for a better financial deal?

It's hard to even imagine an SEC that adds the collective football prominence of Texas, Texas A&M, FSU and Miami. Not to mention its gains in Title IX sports and spring sports such as baseball, track, and golf.

A 16-team Big 10 would definitely be a behemoth, but the ripple effects... *that's* where superconference expansion would get interesting.

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The 2009 college football season will be capped by exciting college football bowl games, including the 2009 Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, the 2009 Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona, the 2009 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana, the 2009 Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida and the 2009 BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena, CA.

The best college football teams from the major conferences, including the Big10 conference, Big 12 conference, Pac 10 conference, ACC conference, Big East conference, SEC conference, and Mountain West conference will face off in college football bowl games throughout December and into January.

If you're looking for updated matchups, odds, insights, betting lines and online wagering for the college football bowl games, please be sure to try BangTheBook.com.

For a MWC fan this weekend was devastating. While not the end of the world, the MWC's bite has failed to live up to its bark in week 3. The top of the MWC, its alleged strength, took serious loses and the middle and bottom did nothing to mitigate these losses.

While last week was a minor set back, this week set the MWC back beyond the gain for BYU's upset of Oklahoma and started to cut into the credibility from Utah's Sugar Bowl win.

Top
BYU hosted FSU as a 7 point favorite and lost 54-28. As a result, a chunk of their turf will now reside in Tallahassee. They also drop from the top 10 to near #25. Somehow they got a bit of a USC effect and remain above the team that beat them in the coaches poll. This year BYU's defense began shifting their focus to increase speed. This game showed they still have a lot of work to do here.

Oregon was favored to beat Utah by 4 and covered with a 31-24 win. Utah struggled in the second quarter to get any kind of momentum but managed to close the 14 point gap in the second half. This game made both teams look like they had some serious work to do before going into their conference slate.

TCU came out sloppy against Texas State and allowed them to stay within 14 until TCU went on a 21 point run in the fourth quarter. I can only hope they were looking towards this weeks game at Clemson.

Middle
UNLV scored one of the bright moments for the conference by coming back to beat Hawaii 34-33, helping to verify that the middle of the MWC is better than the middle of the WAC.

Air Force won their first conference game against New Mexico 37-13. Frankly, if New Mexico wins a game in conference this year it will be bad for the conference. They took this spot from SDSU this year.

At the start of the season CSU and Nevada looked like it might be a good test for CSU, but Nevada has struggled mightily since then and the 35-20 win by CSU is diminished. This does solidify their place in the middle of the conference, which was questionable to start the year.

Bottom
SDSU lost their road trip to Idaho 34-20. Apparently the bottom of the WAC is competitive with the bottom of the MWC.

Wyoming was shut out by Colorado 24-0, and Toledo put up 50+ on them? Wyoming is almost right with New Mexico

Summary
The MWC went 0-3 against BCS conference members. While last week brought the middle into question, this week took a bite out of the top of the conference. The MWC has lost the credibility it earned the opening week.

It appears the MWC was enjoying a housing market like bubble which has now burst. The result is that rankings, like housing prices, have restored to their proper market value.

I compared this years week 3 simulated BCS standings with those of the past 2 years. The non-AQ conferences went from 2 to 4 to 4 teams in the top 25 while the MWC went from 0 to 2 to 2. The MWC appears to be near where it sat last year after TCU lost to Oklahoma, which is still far better than they were any year prior.

They will need to finish strong and have a solid bowl season to avoid being dismissed completely.

Must wins
The MWC only has 3 out of conference games this week and really needs to win them all to gain credibility.
2 out of three will maintain the current meh. None of these games will come easy.

TCU travels to the much anticipated game against Clemson.

Utah hosts Louisville in the only game between the Big East and the MWC this season. This game will draw far too much attention in the MWC vs. Big East debate, no matter how the game goes.

New Mexico host in state rival New Mexico State in a largely one sided rivalry. New Mexico is way down as they break in a new coaching staff and should make a game of it. A win here would reduce how bad New Mexico, the likely bottom of the MWC, is perceived.

Conference play
Undefeated CSU is getting a few points in the polls and could make a significant jump with a win over BYU, at the cost of knocking BYU out of the top 25. Getting a fourth team into top 25 striking distance would be a huge plus for the MWC.

Air Force and UNLV should handle SDSU and Wyoming respectively.

Closing
The next installment will be next Tuesday night with the final regular season installment the following week, as only one game out of conference remains after that point.

Once bowl schedules are announced an installment will follow, and the concluding installment will come after the bowls are finished.

P.S. TE and WEA, we need some more SEC and ACC threads. What gives? ; )

When I can, with a straight face, state that a loss this week would raise questions about whether Colorado is as good as Weber State, the Buffs fans have fallen far from their hopes of making a run this year for the Big 12 North.

When years of questionable decisions bankrupt an athletic department and the team tanks to unimaginable levels the fans call for the athletic director to resign. AD's can also be let go mid season with far less disruption.

Bohn continues to stand by Hawkins.

I'm as frustrated and disappointed as anybody, I believe in Dan.

...

It's the nature of the business. I'd prefer not to have all those negative thoughts channeled into a negative direction, He's frustrated and he understands that he's responsible for what's going on. He's looking at the mirror and trying to figure out new ways to present his program and put new things in. I salute that competitive spirit.

...

I don't feel under attack, but I also understand we're not meeting the expectations of our fans, We're not providing a sense of accomplishment at a level we expect ourselves. The outside attacks are really not driving us as much as our competitive spirit. We're competitive people and we have a great resolve to improve.

Hawkins is taking heat for his statements this off season that he thought he had a 10 win season, which now looks to be closer to his eventual loss total. If they don't win this week I am not sure they have a 1 win season.

The plain fact is Colorado might not have the funds to buy out Hawkins contract. At $850,000 per year through January 2013 it could cost upwards of $3 million to release him.

www.buffzone.com reports more on Colorado's desperate financial situation.

The athletic department remains in deeply in debt with the majority of an $8 million loan from the campus and the CU system in 2006 still to be paid off. Part of that debt was caused by the last coaching change when Bohn fired Gary Barnett at the end of the 2005 season and hired Hawkins. ... The department would have to borrow money to buyout Hawkins and it would be hard-pressed to do so in the current economic climate in which state funding is being significantly trimmed and some CU employees have already lost their jobs.

If Bohn is not feeling the heat he is not listening to his fans. The Ralph Report is hot on his trail. The descriptions of anger and frustration at the CSU results turning to despair after the Toledo game are painful to read for any fan. We can all be thankful this did not happen to our team this year ... unless our team is Colorado.

This Bohn quote is featured promonently in their writeup:

"We maybe have been guilty of building a facade that maybe didn't reveal the hole that we were in and the severity of the situation we were in associated with the program."

Using this quote and the fact that Hawkins contract was extended past 2010 in 2008 they reach this conclusion:

If the University wanted to make a change even after the 2010 season when the original contract would have expired, it would cost them 25 extra months of the buyout clause at $70,833 a month or a total of $1,770,833. Simply put, the athletic department may have made a $1.8 million dollar mistake based on little results on the field back in 2008.

...

What does this all mean? I think you can put away the coaching wish lists and the thoughts about getting the next guy in Boulder. If the Buffs go 1 - 11 or 2 - 10 this year and a buyout was necessary, buying out a contract that ended in 2010 compared to 2013 would obviously be easier to discuss. But I struggle to find a logical thought for the administration approving $2.9 million of additional debt plus whatever a new coach costs on top. I don't blame them either considering the financial times we are in. I do blame the parties involved for allowing an extension after two years that would have the potential to cost the University an extra $1.8 million especially considering they were judging success on a "facade", as Mike Bohn puts it.

...

[Ending in a touch of class, we get:]

So where do we go from here? We support the players of this team. Coming from a guy who played a little ball in his day and lost the opportunity in college because of injury, the ability to play collegiate sports is very short. You have only so much eligibility and time to play before it is over. The kids deserve the support of the fans even if you don't support how the operation is being run. They chose Colorado to use their four years of eligibility here when they could have gone a multitude of other places.

What I would do
I think it is time for Colorado to fire Mike Bohn. Miss representing the state of his department has lead to a serious problem for the Universities image.

The decision to remove Hawkins is complicated financially. I would expect a new AD to demand an action plan from him for what steps he will take to improve his team and hold him accountable for them.

If Hawkins does not perform according to these plans and goals, likely to focus on winning a game or two this year and getting to a bowl game next year, he should be fired then for being derelict. If he is fired with cause then the buyout does not come into play.

This assumes Hawkins does not take the initiative to resign after this season.

Top:
BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility.

Middle:
Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games.

UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach's reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step.

CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo.

Bottom:
Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don't think Texas covered the 33 points.

SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss.

New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table.

Summary:
The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season.

Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is.

Expected wins:
BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC's favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls.

TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah...

Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week.

Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State.

Close calls:
CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC.

SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game.

Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC.

New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.