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SEC Product at Risk of Dilution

Tue, 08 Nov 2011 18:35:01 -0500

The so-called Game of the Century (hey, it's a young century) was actually a little bit of a yawner, even by supreme SEC over-defensively-schemed standards. Not much of the end zone did we see, unless it was an errant Tide kick landing short or astray like a winged AFLAC duck falling in the marsh. This game was more or less a Mexican standoff involving field goals, crazy-looking punts and uncharacteristic turnovers. Neither coach attempted a grasp for the other's jugular. It was like a chess match played entirely with pawns. If it were a poker match, Alabama had one of a kind--Trent Richardson. LSU had two of a kind--ineffectual quarterbacks. The only saving grace for either was the full house--Bryant-Denny Stadium--showcasing the best of the SEC to a national audience.

Admittingly, I kept peeking over at USCe-Arky to get some oxygen because at least that game featured touchdowns. I really wanted either LSU or Alabama to score a safety to really liven things up with that one point differential but I guess the football gods (or CBS management) destined it for overtime. A 9-6 victory on penalty kicks is the football equivalent of paper covers rock--you're not really quite sure how that wins but it's accepted that it does. In a monumental defensive showdown like we saw, it really makes you feel homesick for the TIE game.

We knew one of the two would be left as a one-time loser. If you thought that Oklahoma was a media darling ( I do) and was the top pick for a one-loss team in the country to be elevated into the BCS CG, you hadn't seen anything until Alabama plummeted one whole spot in the BCS standings Sunday night from second to third. Now before you nod or shake your head on that last statement, know that #4 Stanford, currently the most aggrieved party, fully controls it's ranking against a one-loss team with a victory over Oregon this weekend and presumably one in the PAC12 CG. Same with #2 Oklahoma State. They play Oklahoma in three weeks and winning out should be enough to stave off a one-loss team in the standings.

The problem with Stanford and Okie State running the table is which team would then take the #2 spot in the BCS assuming LSU remains undefeated? If Stanford plays 13 games and survives their conference title game, then I think you have to give them the edge over the Pokes who no longer have that luxury enjoyed now by the rest of the BCS conferences (save the Big East). As we in the SEC have known for quite a while, the title game trial by fire is the extra oomph you need to vault over the pretenders and the anachronistic non-divisional players.

Where the problem in the BCS scenario will come is if we have a large contingent of one-loss teams left at the end of the year. Then, when you lose is as important as who you lost to. I'm old school. I think losses later in the season should be death knells, but as we've seen in the BCS era as people have put more validity into the hands of both the polls and the computers, that's no longer the case. In 2003, Oklahoma lost the Big 12 CG to Kansas State but then went on to play LSU for the BCS crown (which resulted in a split champion that year with USC winning the AP title). In 2007, LSU lost their last regular game of the season to Arkansas, their second loss, but still advanced to and won the BCS title.

I think it's entirely possible that LSU could lose to Arkansas this year. Petrino and Tyler Wilson will challenge the vaunted Tiger secondary and I think it'll be a close contest. But forget that for a second. Let's assume for simplicity that LSU wins out and is the #1 team in the BCS. The looming problem I have was revealed in all the talk this weekend about somehow elevating Alabama back to #2 and having the conference provide both national title game participants in a rematch from this past Saturday. I think it's a horrible idea but it's entirely possible with the right teams losing the right games.

Although fans of SEC teams might seriously question why it's a bad idea to have two teams from the conference play for all the marbles, I have fundamental problems with it. Allow me to present my case. First, the practical. Rematches are rarely the barn-burners they're made out to be. Harken back to the Alabama-Florida SEC title games of the 1990s. Many of those were rematches, and they seemed anti-climatic because the teams weren't natural rivals. Was there any doubt that Auburn would stomp South Carolina in the rematch last year? It was more or less a formality since the game had to be played and Auburn needed it's ticket to Glendale punched. The Gamecocks, as if on cue, simply mailed it in.

Jealousy from the rest of the nation is a real hazard to avoid. It's universally known that the SEC fields the toughest football conference in the land. It's virtually guaranteed now that our champion gets a slot in the national title game. Our second best team still gets a BCS bowl bid. They wrote the rule capping conferences from fielding more than two BCS bowl teams primarily because of us. We send six to seven teams to bowls anyway. Let's not rub it in and try to lobby to get a rerun of a regular season game to decide the national crown. Leave that to 2006 Michigan. That's being stingy and it will breed resentment. Don't think there's resentment in college football? Look at what Texas accomplished in less than one year. They BLEW UP college football, from greed and the ensuing resentment. We the SEC don't want to pull a Texas.

For the fundamental side, most readers in the blogosphere are pro-playoff for our sport. While the details of an eventual one are melded out, the de facto first rounds of a playoff are the conference championship games. For 20 years our very conference has led the nation in advancing that protocol. We believe that the SEC champ is capable of beating anyone in the country. So now does the rest of the nation. Therefore it is not unreasonable to expect that any team that isn't capable of winning it's own conference is not worthy of playing for the national crown. It just doesn't make sense to fair-minded folks.

Yes, I know the purpose of the BCS is to marry the one and two teams in a bowl game regardless of where the chips fall, but we need to change the dialogue in the game to get away from that notion. Specifically outlaw it if you must. If you want a playoff, having the current BCS placing two teams from the same conference reaks of cronyism and will poison not only future playoff plans, but the very validity of the BCS as it stands today.

And most importantly, for the SEC, it would toxically dilute the very product and brand that it works so hard to field every year and make the strongest in the land. It took many years and a whole bunch of blood, sweat and Bourbon, but the SEC got the whole country convinced that their champ is a lock for the national title game. Don't allow the BCS to damage that image by alllowing you to hog the whole trough. Yea, I know--it would be hard to turn it down. Maybe it'll play out in the end and we won't be faced with this scenario. But if we are, know that it's a road we don't want to go down.

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2011 SEC Non-Traditional Out of Conference Game Predictions

Tue, 09 Aug 2011 01:01:34 -0500

I'm an Auburn homer. I think they'll win every game. I refuse to think otherwise, so if that colors me slightly biased, I'm open about admitting it. I'll also admit that I'm probably not the most reliable go-to guy for betting information involving an Auburn team for the same reason. I picked Auburn to win every game last year. As it was, I just happened to be right, which really bolsters my confidence going into this year. I did miss five games in 2009 however, but I'm still right most of the time.

That being so, I'm still not usually one to make predictions involving Auburn until the very last minute when I'm forced to do it. However, with the other teams in the conference, I have no such reservations, and with the preseason Coaches Poll out last week soon to be followed by the AP poll, I figure why not cast out my predictions for the out-of-conference (OOC) games of interest that are not standing rivalry games?

Usually crucified for their OOC scheduling, the SEC in recent years has made a consistent effort to take on more BCS teams that we don't play that often--many from outside the south. Bolstered by the addition of one-and-done contests like the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game and the Cowboys Classic, college football itself is making it easier to lure together more attractive non-traditional opponents due to the high national exposure and payouts. Just this year, the SEC showcases three strong opening weekend games: LSU-Oregon in Dallas, Georgia-Boise State in Atlanta, and Ole Miss-BYU in Oxford.

While I said last year that Vanderbilt had the toughest OOC schedule, there's little doubt that LSU wears that crown this year with the opener against Oregon in Dallas and at West Virginia on September 24th. Vandy still has a tough slate with UConn, Army and Wake Forest. And while I generally almost always root for SEC teams in OOC games, I don't think we're going to win them all this year. Here's the Top 10 contests:

Sept 3rd: LSU and Oregon: How does it get better than this? The 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the pre-season, Oregon coming off the narrow national championship game loss and LSU from an 11-2 season and Cotton Bowl beat-down of Texas A&M. It's so hard to start the season without any tune-up contest and immediately play national-caliber competition. A win can propel a team on to great things like Alabama did in 2008 after clobbering Clemson in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game, or for the reverse, see Clemson's fortunes that very same year. Oregon returns many of their starters as does LSU, but with the loss to Auburn still fresh on their minds and the Tiger's QB fortunes still unproven in my mind, I think Oregon edges this one out in yet another slow motion fashion for the Ducks, 17-14.

Sept 3rd: Georgia and Boise State: After playing with a major chip on their shoulders the last two seasons, going undefeated in 2009 and losing late to Nevada last year to see any hopes of BCS and national championship glory go down the drain, the Broncos come into the Georgia Dome once again looking for national respect--this time in an early season game against a BCS opponent rather than in a bowl game. None on this team were around the last time Boise played in the state of Georgia, a 48-13 drubbing by the very same Dogs in Athens in 2005, but we're sure it'll still be on their minds. Mark Richt and Georgia come into the season hungry to reestablish themselves as contenders in the SEC east and a solid victory over Boise will put them on the right path. Dogs win in a surprisingly hard-fought match, 28-24.

Sept 3rd: BYU at Ole Miss: The newly independent Cougars can have all the SEC scheduling they can handle now that they're leaving the Mountain West after arch-rival Utah got the invite to the PAC 12. BYU has only played SEC teams four previous times, winning only one game--in Provo against Mississippi State. While the Rebels are predicted to compete for last place in the SEC west along with Auburn by all the pundits, conference pride will be on the line. But BYU has much to prove in their new play em anywhere, anytime roll and comes away with a close win 31-27.

Sept 10th: Alabama at Penn State: Predicted to challenge for the national championship this year, The Tide probably circled this game first on their calendar as the necessary hurdle in the early season to clear for a run at the top. With JoPa suffering yet another major physical injury during practice this weekend, and being an empty suit on the sidelines for much of the past few years, you wonder how much fight the Nittany Lions will have in them when the Tide rolls in. There is a lot of respect in this rivalry going back to the great Sugar Bowl games of the 1970s but Alabama rolls big on the road 34-17.

Sept 10th: UConn at Vandy: Coming off their second Big East title in four seasons and subsequent punishing at the hands of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, the Huskies had many people questioning whether the Big East was truly a BCS conference at all anymore. But that was last year and we are talking Vandy. The Dores make a valiant effort but the basketball-traditional Huskies rebound and beat a SEC team at their house 38-13.

Sept 17th: Auburn at Clemson: If there ever was a team that wanted the Auburn monkey off their backs it's Clemson, who haven't beaten their ancient Tiger rivals in sixty years. While taking Auburn to the wire in overtime in 2010 in a game they should have won, many think the Tiger Paws will have their day in Death Valley this year. Not to be so, as Auburn extends their misery for yet another year, 34-28, as the two will meet for the third consecutive year in 2012 in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game in Atlanta. See you in Hartwell.

Sept 17th: Navy at South Carolina: The Palmetto state will see two fine contests involving their two native sons on this weekend as Navy plays in Columbia. While nobody doubts that Navy will run the ball and have some success against the Gamecocks, there will probably be little the Midshipmen can do to stop the hungry chickens from crowing atop the yard-arm. SC rolls 42-17.

Sept 24th: LSU at West Virginia: After the off-season firing of HC Bill Stewart and the subsequent turmoil within the program that it produced, coupled with the fact that the Mountaineers only really field a high-caliber team about every twenty years or so, further coupled with a possible opening season loss by the Tigers to Oregon, I think the Purple Tigers roll through Morgantown in a fury, 38-13. Chance of couch burning: HIGH. Keep scheduling SEC teams, West Virginia. We might eye you one day in a future mega-conference power expansion grab. You've got too much pluck to be in the damn ACC.

Oct 1st: Texas A&M at Arkansas: You would think that the Aggies will be fired up for another shot at an SEC team after losing to both the Hawgs last year in College Station and to LSU in the Cotton Bowl, but Arky will be waiting as well for a shot at their old rivals and wins this big, 45-24. A&M should keep hedging their bets and scheduling SEC teams to keep their name fresh in our minds should you finally bolt from the remnants of the Big 12 to be drafted by us.

Oct 22: Army at Vanderbilt: The Gold Dome Bowl. Don't squint while watching this one or you might not be able to figure out which team is which. I think Vandy should schedule at least one of the service academies each year just for the uniform confusion alone. The Commodores pull rank on the Cadets 24-16, making 2/3rds of the academies 0-2 against our conference this year.

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Muschamp Channels Kiffin?

Tue, 24 May 2011 00:52:02 -0500

In the boldest prognostication for a neophyte head coach since Kiffykins predicting "singing Rocky Top all night long" at the Swamp in his inaugural (and thankfully, only) year, first year Florida coach Will Muschamp promised a female fan a victory over Georgia at the annual meeting of the Atlanta Gator Club. It seems the former Gator coed had a wedding scheduled on the day of this year's WLOCP to a Georgia fan of all people and dates.

Funny how nobody chastised the silly girl for such ignorant timing. A similar faux pas in the state of Alabama would incur a decade of shunning for sure. (Here's a great gift idea for all the groomsmen--pocket radios with ear buds) But Muschamp took the bait, and although it's nowhere as bad as Kiffin's gaff, quotes have probably already been plastered in Georgia's locker room. A retaliatory team end zone celebration is almost assuredly in the making.

Muschamp, a Georgia grad who grew up in Gainesville, has been receiving some flack from Dawg fans over his loyalty since taking the Florida job, an issue he addressed later:

"I'm loyal to who signs my checks," Muschamp said. "All of that other stuff, I don't get into. In our profession you're loyal to the people you work for. I'll do the best job I can for the Gator nation."

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Boise State Gets Shot in Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game with Two SEC Teams

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 19:50:33 -0500

Just anounced this afternoon, the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game has inked Boise State in two upcoming contests, one next year in 2011 against Georgia, and the other in 2014 against Ole Miss. Boise was originally supposed to be a home game for Ole Miss next year, but the attractiveness of the matchup garnered the attention of game officials who decided to try and move it out a bit to fit the schedule. Ole Miss will now replace Boise with BYU next season, then will wait an additional three years to play the Broncos in the Georgia Dome.

Boise gets it's shot next year with a rematch against Georgia. If you recall, Boise played at Athens in 2005 and took a 48-13 drubbing. Most folks seem to forget that part when talking of all the BCS teams that Boise State has played in the past few years. This game could be an exciting contest if BSU QB Kellen Moore returns for his senior season, matching up against Georgia sophomore QB Aaron Murray, who has thrown for just as many yards as Moore has so far this year, in spite of being harassed and late-hit by Auburn DL Nick Fairley.

Regardless, this additional exposure will elevate Boise State in many minds and perhaps go a long way in earning respect by playing BCS teams even on a neutral field (which will certainly be in name only as far as the Georgia game is concerned). We in the south call it the Florida State method--playing anyone, anytime, anywhere.

Note to the Atlanta Sports Council, the promoters of these games: please don't get too Boise happy. Some Cinderella sympathy is fine but there are other BCS teams--especially in the PAC, Big 12-10 and Big 10,11,12 that we southerners would like to see down here. Maybe also we can put the ACC on hiatus after the Auburn-Clemson matchup in 2012 until they start to be significant once again in CFB.

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Will Player Controversies Up-end Georgia's Mark Richt?

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 00:03:37 -0500

Georgia's first-team All-SEC wide-out A.J. Green was suspended by the NCAA today for an additional three games on top of having missed this past weekend's game, the result of him having sold a game jersey from last year's Independence Bowl to someone deemed an agent by the NCAA. For the record, any selling of sports memorabilia by student athletes is strictly verboten. You'd think that the Bulldogs had learned their lesson as far as hawking their wares, but perhaps that's something that has to learned the hard way in every class or so.

Georgia is appealing the decision, which seems a bit harsh by 'sentencing guidelines', especially considering his cooperation in the matter. Dawg fans think so and so do I, but the NCAA may have seen a rare opportunity with a superstar player to make a point, even if that very point is seemingly contradicted by the two-game suspension of Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus last week. The NCAA referred to 'mitigating circumstances' in explaining the leniency of his treatment. This whole investigation into Green came as a result of the 'Agent Gate' episode in Miami which has snared quite a few players, including the original 'usual suspects' out of SouthCarolina who will be held out of the game withGeorgia this weekend, too, along with Green.

"I want to apologize to my coaches, teammates and the Georgia fans for the mistake in judgment," Green said in a statement. "I very much regret all that has taken place and the distraction that’s been caused. I’ve learned a valuable lesson and hope others can learn from my mistake. I can only focus my attention now on practicing and looking ahead to getting back with my teammates as quickly as possible." If you believed Green actually composed that statement, then you probably believe the red panties on the grassy knoll theory, too.

What Green did was stupid. He knew it was wrong and there simply cannot be any excuse. The fact that he owned up to it is about the only thing to his credit. You can talk about the punishment being inflicted on his teammates, but everyone plays by the same rules, superstars or scout team ballers. What really may cost Green in the long run if his suspension isn't reduced is $$$$$$$$. Projected as a possible top 5 pick if he were to come out in the draft next year as a junior, missing a quarter of the season may drop his stock significantly, perhaps forcing him to wait until after his senior season. And we all know what can happen if you don't strike while the iron's hot. Three words, kid: Lloyd's of London.

So what the heck is going on over at Georgia? Last week it became official as the talley for the Fulmer Cup came in, finishing out with the arrest of freshman safety Alex Ogletree for the theft of a motorcycle helmet. Egads! Doesn't the lad know it's legal to wear a football helmet while riding your little red Dawgscooter? Maybe tone it down with a practice helmet not brandishing the Georgia logo, mind you. Two weeks ago, RB Washaun Ealy was arrested for driving on a suspended license--after being warned by coaches not to drive until he got the matter straightened out. He was the 8th Georgia player arrested this off-season and Ogletree was the 9th. What is going on over at Athens?

Only a fool can deny the success that Richthas had at Georgia, but exactly how far has he slid as a disciplinarian? There's tons of smoke coming from that campus for there not to be a fire. Couple all these player issues with the major blunder of AD Damon Evans this summer and you have what could appear to be a program out of control. Player suspensions affect games in a variety of ways, but multiply that with the sheer magnitude and totality of what's happened in the last two months and you have all the makings of a train wreck for the Dawgs this season.

Most fans of Georgia's opponents will take the moral high ground and say that they would rather beat a healthy, productive team than one that is suffering from internal strife, but that may not be the case with Georgia's own fans. These types of malignancies have a tendency to fester until a few losses, then suddenly blow-up into a full blown cancer. Few believed that even after a sub-par 2009 season that Richt would be on the hot seat in 2010 for wins, but having a team coming off the rails with discipline problems could prove to be another matter. Let's hope not, but we'll know a lot after this weekend. As the dean of SEC coaches, Richt's earned the right to redeem himself. For now.

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Sunday Quick Hits: Escape and Advance Edition

Sun, 05 Sep 2010 07:06:58 -0500

A few thoughts and observations from this weekend's first few days. What are yours?

Is LSU a serious contender in the SEC this year? Based on last night's performance alone, I say no. LSU rolled in the 1st Quarter, but that was against a UNC defense that sat almost their entire starting lineup due to NCAA investigations. And -- once again -- LSU showed their paper tiger hallmarks by allowing the Tarheels to storm back at the end, despite missing their top two WRs and top RB. UNC's TJ Yates is a serviceable college QB, but it's hard to forget that he led the 108th rated offense last year. If this depleted UNC squad can rack up 400+ yards against LSU's best defense, then I shudder to think what Alabama is going to do to the Tigers. My early prediction? LSU has a new head coach in 2011.

Michigan has served notice to the Big 10 Conference - they have a new QB and the boy can play! Oh, wait... that was last year, before 4-0 UM crashed back to reality. I don't know what to make of QB Denard Robinson's game yesterday other than to the kid can definitely ball. Season openers in The Big House have been a little dicey lately for Big Blue, but the Wolverines looked salty much of the day against a well-regarded UConn squad. I'm not on the Michigan bandwagon (yet), but RichRod's triple-threat offense looks to be well on its way in Ann Arbor.

For much of the off-season, the Gator Haters have been pounding new Florida QB John Brantley with the nickname "Cantley", as in "can't measure up to Tebow". Brantley's first start as the UF quarterback was... well... memorable. Brantley single-handily made Miami (OH), who won just one game last year, look like Miami (The U). The QB led Urban Meyer's team to just 25 yards of offense through the first three quarters. The final scoreboard would show an unexpectedly close win, but the box score would include eight UF fumbles (almost all of which were snaps or QB exchanges with Brantley) and just 212 yards of total offense. Game balls have to go to the Florida defense and Redhawks mistakes. The Redhawks committed four turnovers of their own or may have knocked off the Gators. I don't know what Meyer is taking for his heart problems, but he better double up on it for what is bound to be a very intese week of practice before South Florida rolls into Gainesville next week.

TCU may not be the #6 team in the country, but I wouldn't want to have to play them. The Frogs played fast in their 30-24 win over #24 Oregon State. Despite losing their #1 rusher last season, TCU rolled up 278 rushing yards against the Beavers, showcasing surprising depth in the backfield. The Frogs ran from nearly every set and doubled up OSU's time-of-possession. QB Andy Dalton had two ridiculous throws that were picked by the Beavers on strong TCU drives, otherwise this game might have been a blowout. The Frogs ran the option with precision and threw the ball deep with effectiveness. Dalton isn't Terrell Pryor, but he is the leader in wins among active college QBs. With their toughest test now behind them, perhaps the biggest challenge for Gary Patterson is keeping the Frogs focused on their second straight BCS appearance.

Note to Oklahoma: Perhaps this trend of playing Utah teams in the season opener is a bad idea. The Utah State Aggies nearly BYU'd the Sooners. But for some gutsy calls by Bob Stoops and some Sooner Magic, this one would have been another opening-day loss. Stoops promised that QB Landry Jones was "night and day" better than last year. I guess I didn't realize how bad Jones was *last year* because the improved Jones still keyed in on his primary receiver every play and went to him - whether he was open, covered, or headed to the mens' room. The defense gave up over 341 yards passing (421 total yards) to Utah State and surrendered eight plays of 20+ yards. OU faces a bigger challenge next week with Heisman-hopeful Christian Ponder and Florida State on the docket. This just in: FSU's offense is better than Utah's State's. Ponder played just two quarters in FSU's win, but had 4 touchdown passes and missed only two completions. FSU must be licking their tomahawk chops, right OU-Ron?

Show of hands: Who thought the days of Ole Miss losing to a FCS opponent were over when Houston Nutt rolled into town? Yeah? Me neither. J-State played with guts and deserved that OT thriller.

I know it was a win over Western Kentucky, but I think Nebraska might have a little something going with new freshman QB Taylor Martinez, a.k.a "T-Magic". T-Magic went 9-of-15 passing for 136 yards and no INTS and showed big speed on seven carries for 127 yards and three touchdowns, including a 46-yard run on the opening drive. It's early in the season, but watch out for the Huskers in the Big 12. If Texas and OU aren't going to play big this year, Nebraska is going to leave the league as defending champs.

Finally, what's going on at Notre Dame? I know it's the first game of the Brian Kelly experience, but the team seemed to be playing all-out for one another. Given Kelly's track record, it shouldn't be surprising, but if BK can harness the talent at UND, watch out. This team won't make the BCS in 2010, but look for the Irish to make a return in 2011 under Kelly.

That's it for me, boys. Whatchya got?

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You ask, college football coaches answer!

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 10:15:58 -0500

In what may be the last absolute fluff piece of the off-season (hey... I said of the OFF-season!), the Seattle Times completed a survey of 29 FBS coaches to find out what they *really* think.

A few highlights:

Most Admired Coach:
Mack Brown of Texas, followed by Ohio State's Jim Tressel, and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops and Penn State's Joe Paterno. (What?! No Urban Meyer!)

Least Admired Coach:
Although most politely deferred on this question, USC's Lane Kiffin got the most mentions, followed by Brian Kelly of Notre Dame, Nick Saban of Alabama and Mike Locksley of New Mexico. (What?! No Urban Meyer!)

What does the NCAA need to change?
Playoffs got a few mentions, but I was more than a little surprised to see some others, like adding a fifth year of eligibility, adding more spring practice times, allowing early signing day, and permitting pre-season games.

And finally, the most important question: Where's a good place to eat?

Metropolitan Grill, Seattle
City Hall Steakhouse, Scottsdale, Ariz. (two votes)
Del Frisco's in Dallas (two votes)
Dreamland Barbecue in Tuscaloosa, Ala
The Crab Trap in Fernandina Beach, Fla.
Joe's Stone Crab in Miami
Handsome Harry's in Naples, Fla.
Chicken and More in Spokane
The Precinct in Cincinnati
Pascal's Manale in New Orleans.

Wow. Two of my favorites and even a hometown spot make the list!

OK... now it's your turn... most admired coach, least admired coach, NCAA change, and out-of-town restaurant. GO!

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2010 USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll

Sun, 08 Aug 2010 15:30:18 -0500

2010 2010 USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll

Rank Team (first-place votes) 2009 record Points Final 2009 rank

1. Alabama (55) 14-0 1,469 1
2. Ohio State (4) 11-2 1,392 5
3. Florida 13-1 1,245 3
4. Texas 13-1 1,240 2
5. Boise State 14-0 1,215 4
6. Virginia Tech 10-3 1,052 10
7. TCU 12-1 1,051 6
8. Oklahoma 8-5 1,035 NR
9. Nebraska 10-4 1,001 14
10. Iowa 11-2 952 7
11. Oregon 10-3 940 11
12. Wisconsin 10-3 778 16
13. Miami (Fla.) 9-4 728 19
14. Penn State 11-2 508 8
15. Pittsburgh 10-3 492 15
16. LSU 9-4 476 17
17. Georgia Tech 11-3 455 13
18. North Carolina 8-5 445 NR
19. Arkansas 8-5 438 NR
20. Florida State 7-6 374 NR
21. Georgia 8-5 312 NR
22. Oregon State 8-5 263 NR
23. Auburn 8-5 260 NR
24t. Utah 10-3 169 18
24t. West Virginia 9-4 169 22

Others receiving votes

Cincinnati (12-1) 135; Houston (10-4) 76; Brigham Young (11-2) 66; Arizona (8-5) 65; Mississippi (9-4) 48; Clemson (9-5) 44; Stanford (8-5) 41; Connecticut (8-5) 40; Notre Dame (6-6) 38; South Carolina (7-6) 38; Washington (5-7) 26; Missouri (8-5) 23; Navy (10-4) 12; Oklahoma State (9-4) 11; Boston College (8-5) 10; Michigan State (6-7) 10; Arizona State (4-8) 6; California (8-5) 6; Texas Tech (9-4) 5; South Florida (8-5) 4; Texas A&M (6-7) 3; Northwestern (8-5) 2; Temple (9-4) 2; Central Michigan (12-2) 1; Mississippi State (5-7) 1; Nevada (8-5) 1; Northern Illinois (7-6) 1; Southern Methodist (8-5) 1.

Alabama defends their national championship from last year by starting #1 this year, exactly like Florida did last year. The SEC has six teams in the preseason poll, the ACC has five, the Big 10 has four (not counting Nebraska yet) , the Big 12 has three, the Pac 10 two, and the Big East two.

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SEC Revenue Disbursement: Status Quo or a Texas-Sized Hold-Up?

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 01:32:15 -0500

Those in the SEC are in the football beniss, and cousin, beniss is booming! With the recently concluded SEC spring meetings, it looks like the total take of the conference in revenue was $209 million last year and pay czar Mike Slive got to dole out $17.42M per school. As you may know, the SEC distributes it's revenue equally per school, which has served it well over the years. The status quo is good, but the recent shakeup in the Big 12 may have repercussions even in stable conferences like the SEC. In FBS, where the move is to close the gap between the haves (BCS teams) and the have nots (mid-majors), a new brand of social injustice for CFB has apparently reared it's head across the land--in the concept of the heavy-hitters of a conference now taking more of the lion's share of the TV money. Oh, if we only had some form of ACORN for college football to right these wrongs.

We all know now that some think Austin seemingly analgous to the Chicken Ranch in The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, and used fully it's weight to secure an unprecedented share of the upcoming new Big 12 agreement. Although details have yet to be given, many think that the Longhorns pulled out their Peacemakers and held up and robbed the rest of the existing members. But maybe that's what you get when a conference is too top heavy with too few stars. Under the old revenue -sharing agreement, half the money was split equally among the member schools, but the other half was given out based on TV appearances. Seems pretty fair on the surface. There has to be some incentive for the higher-achievers to earn more while protecting the rest of the conference herd. Kind of like college football capitalism--with some social security, disability and a good dental plan thrown in.

So is it pure socialism if the SEC splits their pie in twelve equal shares regardless of merit or achievement? Relax, it's not an apt comparison. Schools join conferences because they have common interests. They're neighbors, and they look out for each other even while they compete. Or at least that's how they used to do it when conferences were still regional entities. But now that the stakes are getting higher, could a change be in the foreseeable future? Well, maybe, but probably not in the next 14 years, which will be when the SEC's $2.25B TV contract with ESPN and the almost $1B contract with CBS run out. But in an age where a contract means little, don't think that the SEC might not have attempted to renegotiate if the conference expanded or contracted. Yes, I said contracted.

If the SEC would have added a couple of teams, especially one from Texas, it's natural to think that TV contracts would suddenly be worth a whole lot more, and any mega contract like those signed by the conference will have provisions for dealing with such contingencies. But what if the conference actually shrunk, and not only that, but shrunk the deadwood from it's roster? Not only would the resulting product be more valuable to the networks--without the affirmative action scheduling of the light-weights, but there would be far fewer mouths to feed. Imagine the $209 earned split among 10 teams, just like the Big 12 just experienced. You'd be looking at a 20% increase for the remaining SEC teams. Cousin, that's BOOM'in!

But who's going to start cutting teams from the SEC? Mike Bianchi over at the Orlando Sentinel recently proposed that, saying that the conference would be better off dropping both Mississippi teams from the conference (but leaving Vanderbilt for GPA-boosting purposes). He argues that no one out side of the Magnolia state would care and it sure wouldn't diminish any TV revenues. Silly Yankees. They move down and live here for years but they'll never understand the culture of the south. We just don't treat our kin that way. And besides, he's obviously never heard the phrase thank God for Mississippi. They may red-shirt Miss Americas, but someone has to be 50th place in just about everything else.

But he does make a good underlying point--that the conference has it's top crust and it's lower half, and save for the occasional superlative season, little changes for the lower tier teams. The top six--Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, LSU and Auburn--get most of the exposure and glamor, especially in the BCS era. So what good are the lower half, except for ballast? More over, is there a better disbursement system than the current one to reward the higher achieving teams? Certainly a pay plan like the old Big 12 agreement sounds plausible, where half the money gets split evenly among the members and the other half by merit. Could the top half force the bottom half into such a scenario when TV contracts are renegotiated? Would resentment be rampant from just such a forced agreement? What could the bottom six do in protest, secede to form another conference? Certainly wouldn't be unheard of from SEC types. That's kind of been our thing, historically.

Or what about a future farther-fetched scenario: one of two top teams, say Alabama and Florida, enjoy so much success that they become the two-horse team that drive the rest of the league stagecoach. Sounds improbable, given the parity in the conference, but hear me out. Could they one day threaten defection much in the way Texas seemingly did to hold hostage the rest of the conference, to everyone's eventual detriment? I certainly hope not. I don't think that's ingrained in our SEC culture, but after seeing how Texas A&M acted in defiance to Texas's price shopping, even the oldest of rivals may decide to go their separate ways one day, and I don't think that the game could sustain such a blow if many others followed suit.

The money has gotten so large and the power bases have gotten so concentrated that revenue sharing might be the biggest threat to our beloved sport in the next decade or so. Not a playoff. Not conference expansions or defections. Not the Golden-Domed stepchild Notre Dame. But pure old-fashioned greed--of money and power. The last two decades have seen college football transition from past time to being a major industry unto itself. I hope that somehow as our sport continues to grow that we don't forget the simple love of the game that got us this far in the first place.

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Fanblogs Open Thread: Realignment-ageddon Edition

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 12:23:46 -0500

With today's official announcement of Colorado to the Pac10 conference and the expected announcement of Nebraska to the Big10 conference (which officially makes it a Big12, don't you think?)... it would seem that the summer realignment-ageddon has officially begun.

Here's a quick what we know, what we can surmise....

- Colorado is officially joining the Pac10. It's unclear as to whether the Pac10 intends to hold at 11 teams, but we should expect the Pac10 to seek to add at least one additional member. For years the argument against expansion centered around the round-robin schedule format and - with 11 schools - that format is officially out the window for college football. Adding one more school would give the conference the option to conduct a CFB championship game in some of the largest television markets in the country. Does the Pac10 stop at 12 (Texas??) or expand further with Big12/MWC/WAC teams???

- The Big10 will have 12 teams with the addition of Nebraska. Will they stand pat at 12 teams or expand to 16 as had been rumored?

- The SEC has said that they will not sit idly by if the Big10 expands. Sports Illustrated has confirmed that the SEC has held discussions with Texas A&M. Is that prelude to further SEC expansion? Who, in addition to the Aggies, are on the SEC radar?

- The ACC & Big East seem to be awfully quiet. Are they targets or could a merger be on the table for the two conferences?

- The MWC will not offer membership to Boise State at this time, setting themselves up to be the home of any Big12 refugees. Is the MWC destined to become a BCS conference by default?

DISCUSS!!!

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SEC expansion list has six teams on it

Sat, 22 May 2010 06:48:27 -0500

As has been mentioned on several occassions by SEC Commissioner Mike Slive, the SEC will not stand pat if the Big 10 Conference elects to expand beyond twelve member schools.

"I'm aware of all the interest and all that's being written, but given the success that we have experienced over the past decade, we're comfortable with the position in which we find ourselves," Slive told FLORIDA TODAY on Wednesday. "Now having said that, if there's going to be a significant shift in the conference paradigm, the SEC will be strategic and thoughtful in order to maintain its position as one of the nation's premier conferences. We are watching carefully what's going on and keeping our antenna up and our eyes open as to what's going on around us."

The Wiz, who's antenna is always up, caught this piece that says Slive is doing more than just watching. It's reported that the SEC has held talks with executives from CBS Sports and outlined the conferences plan to target six teams for conference expansion.

According to Hyams, Slive told CBS executives in a recent meeting that the league’s goal would be to keep pace with a 16-team Big Ten by pursuing Texas, Texas A&M, Florida State and Clemson.
If Texas and Texas A&M cannot be lured in, then Miami and Georgia Tech will join Florida State and Clemson on the SEC’s wish list.

The post is based upon the reporting of Jimmy Hyams of WNML-AM 990 in Knoxville. Hyams, who's covered SEC sports for more than 30 years, cites anonymous sources close to CBS. Given Hyams's stature in the broadcast community, I would tend to agree that this story has some legs to it.

In looking at the "plan", the discussion around Texas and Texas A&M wouldn't be shocking to anyone. Texas represents the premiere "get" in the country and the 'Horns won't be permitted to go anywhere by the Texas Legislature unless their take perennial rival with them. The Aggies may be the little brother in the mix, but they're the lynchpin to the entire deal.

The move to bring in Texas would cement the SEC's footprint into two of the country's top ten television markets: Dallas (#5) and Houston (#10). It's unclear to me if the conference would be able to go back to ESPN and ask for more television money right away, but the long-term benefit of adding the two schools would be substantial.

As far as adding Florida State and Clemson, I get the sense that the SEC is merely the SEC keeping up with the Joneses, so to speak. The Noles and Tigers add a little more color to the conference, but don't necessarily represent a blockbuster addition in terms of potential revenue. If anything, it would be a move against the ACC to limit the conferences marketability and - in turn - keep more money on the table for the SEC. Ditto for what appears to be the backup plan of pursuing Georgia Tech and Miami.

On the flip side of the equation, I'm not convinced that the SEC would be able to land all four ACC teams, especially given the extra $7.5 million per year that the teams will now be earning from the new ACC television agreement. The ACC teams still earn less than the SEC teams, but it's no longer such a wide margin.

For it's part, the SEC is denying that any meeting has taken place; however, Hyams is standing by his reporting.

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From Champ to Chump?

Tue, 18 May 2010 21:43:42 -0500

With recent talk of Texas AD Deloss Dodds attempting to renew his contract, one can't help but wonder about the logjam that it will create in Austin. HC Mack Brown was supossed to ascend to Dodds' position sooner rather than later, with his DC already lined up as his successor. Which brings us the curious case of Will Muschamp possibly being the Horns' understudy for a bit longer than he originally bargained for. The whole scenario got me thinking about a host of things--including the whole coach-in-waiting, coach-on-deck concept. With other CIW slots paying off recently--Joker Phillips at Kentucky and Jimbo Fisher at FSU, Muschamp, with this latest news, might end up looking like a wallflower at the Yellow Rose hoe-down. While the jury is still out on CIWs, I think that in the right situation, it can help bridge the gap for a successful transition--provided it's done quickly and you don't have an Al Haig situation arise. Recruits and your fan base need to know who the successor will be immediately, even if a retirement is announced in good time, and truth be told, most would prefer an orderly line of succession as opposed to the chaos of the great coaching hunt in a bear market.

But the potential to botch such an undertaking is tremendous--witness the example of FSU and Bobby Bowden. Can't empathize with the Noles? Think about if your living legend had just been put out to pasture at least one season ahead of schedule. Half the fan base would still view the CIW as a possible Brutus, with his long knife drawn. That kind of division could take years to mend, even with all the right moves that we know some coaches can make. And that's not factoring in the freedom that comes with a wholesale house cleaning. Inheriting a program may come with pressure to keep certain members of the coaching staff on board for political reasons--and the new staff may not gel as quickly. Let's see how many members of Jimbo Fisher's staff remain for the 2011 or 2012 season.

So back to Muschamp. The current anointed one. The hottest assistant in the country. The hottest head coaching prospect in the country. Or is he? What's he waiting on? This is a business based in large part on hype, and if you look up depreciating asset in the dictionary, it says, see HYPE. Could this be a failure to launch scenario? 2008--Auburn offers him a job in the $3M range--turned down, but understandably so, given his intimate knowledge of the dysfunction under Auburn trustee Bobby Lowder and the pressures applied to his former boss Tuberville. In 2009, the SEC went into December looking like it would have zero coaching turnover, but ended up with the Kiffin surprise. Tennessee offered Muschamp the job, and he declined. Knoxville is the historical #2 team in the conference and a top 10 program in the nation. If you don't jump on a job like that, what exactly do you think is coming around the bend?

But maybe we're selling young Muschamp short. With him being a product of the university of Georgia, many SECers think his rightful destiny is in the conference. But perhaps it's not. Maybe he simply intends to honor his current agreement and remain the coach-in-waiting for Texas and the highest-paid assistant in the country until his fortune plays out. Seems sort of strange these days, though. Someone in a high-profile profession like this sticks to their word. Stranger things do happen--the whole aforementioned Lane Kitten nightmare, for one. But apparently, the wait might get a little bit longer in Austin, so what's plan B? Damn. That Tennessee job sure is looking good now if there is in fact a logjam at DKR Stadium. See, at some point, you burn up all your political capital and go from being the next best thing to simply being a prude. So many have asked, yet you've never agreed. Eventually you're all dressed up with nowhere to go.

Carpe diem! You don't get to walk this way again, especially with more and more of the upper crust of BCS conferences eschewing the hiring of hot prospect assistants and going with someone who has proven his mettle as the head man--even if it is at a mid-major school. In the SEC, let's look at the top half of Alabama, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia and Auburn the last decade or so. Only one of that group hired a top assistant that worked out and that was Georgia. Mark Richt came from FSU and made an immediate impact. Alabama hired Mike Shula, an assistant in the NFL, and most Tide fans would agree that was an unmitigated disaster. Florida hired Ron Zook in 2002 and took a break from winning conference championships for four years. Auburn would have bucked conventional wisdom by wanting to hire Muschamp, but was unable. Do many Tiger fans think that breaking him in would have been the right decision? Tough to say. Granted, on the other hand, with only two years in Ames, Iowa, most would agree that Gene Chizik was equally a little wet around the ears, too.

But hiring someone with HC experience is by no means a lock. At LSU, Saban came from mediocre success at Michigan State before taking over the reigns, and Les Miles came from same at Oklahoma State. Both did win MNCs in Baton Rouge. And Alabama hired a proven college winner in Saban after struggling with Dennis Franchione out of TCU and Mike Price out of Washington State. Georgia struggled under Jim Donnan from Marshall but Florida won with an upstart Urban Meyer from Utah and Auburn did with after borrowing Tommy Tuberville from Ole Miss. Tennessee has now hired Derek Dooley from Louisiana Tech, but opted for the hot assistant with Muschamp to no avail. So okay, maybe the concept's not totally dead, but they better be on-fire hot.

But maybe Will Muschamp has more patience than Jobe and the steely resolve of a sniper and is waiting for his opportunity to arise. Last year, we saw serious chinks in Mark Richt's armor for the first time and not even DC Willie Martinez's head on a pike can quell all Dawg fans for long, especially if things turn sour again this fall. If Richt were to become vulnerable later in the upcoming season, would Georgia be tempted to make a move? I can't imagine a scenario yet where Richt would be fired outright, so inroads would have to be made to Muschamp, whom I'm sure still maintains close Bulldog ties. That fact would certainly make it easier on them than possibly having their own version of Auburn's failed courtship of Bobby Petrino in 2003, known as Jetgate, but the answer must be known to the Bulldogs before the question is formally asked and heads made to roll. Are Dawg fans bullish on Muschamp, or are they really not that into him? Makes you also wonder if Gator fans will ever be interested in Gene Chizik, but I digress.

If such an offer is made and accepted, it'll either be the swiftest move ever by a HC or the luckiest CFB happenstance since Ronald Regan played the Gipper. One thing is certain, though. It'll restore the old anachronistic concept of an alumnus coach in the SEC. 2009 was the first season in my lifetime that there wasn't a HC storming the very sidelines that he used to sit on as a player and that's kinda sad if you think about it.

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NCAA kills the "Tiger Prowl", but recruiting arms-race not over

Sun, 02 May 2010 08:34:48 -0500

In yet another offseason move to control the recruiting arms-race, the NCAA has banned the "Tiger Prowl", as utilized very effectively by Auburn.

Under the new rules, teams are only allowed to have two coaches visit a prospect's school on a recruiting day.

Auburn gained national recruiting buzz when the "Tiger Prowl" first rolled onto the scene. Instead of sending just a couple of coaches to schools, seven members of the Tigers coaching staff all jumped into a stretch limo and made the rounds from school-to-school.

The high-roller approach didn't go over with other coaches or the NCAA, who specifically mentioned the visits in the statement accompanying the rule.

Although during an evaluation period no in-person, off-campus recruiting contact may occur with a prospective student-athlete, it has become commonplace for institutions to send numerous coaches to a prospective student-athlete’s educational institution. Oftentimes arriving in limousines and extravagant buses, these multiple coaches are appearing at the high schools of the prospective student-athletes just as much to be seen as to actually conduct an evaluation. Many institutions are unnecessarily expending resources in order to have multiple assistant coaches attend these evaluations as a result of the perceived recruiting benefit. By permitting only two football coaches per institution to visit a prospective student-athlete’s school on any given evaluation day, it would preclude institutions from sending a large number of assistant coaches to a school just for perception purposes.

(emphasis added)

Knowing the rule has been coming, at least two schools - Auburn and Georgia - have been using the Prowl in the last few weeks to maximize attention before the NCAA could put a stop to it.

I think this should be taking as a compliment to the Auburn Tigers. They did it and it worked. Auburn finished with the Rivals #4 recruiting class, besting SEC rivals Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Georgia and 10 other conference foes.

And since no good deed goes unpunished, the Tiger Prowl concept is banned, just as Urban Meyer's texting thumbs were summarily silenced by the NCAA.

It's hard to predict what the next big thing will be in the recruiting arms race, but you can pretty much count on the SEC to dream it up. Les Miles in a jetpack? The Kentucky coaches in a YouTube lipdub? The Vandy "V" being shown like Batman's bat-signal high over Atlanta?

Don't laugh - it could happen.

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New bowl rules to open more doors to 6-6 teams

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 19:53:36 -0500

The NCAA committee that oversees rules changes has approved a measure brought forward by Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe allowing bowl committees to give equal consideration to teams with 6-6 records when evaluating at-large bids.

At first glance, it would seem to reward teams that played a tougher schedule rather than padding their record with cupcakes. The change would also give bowls more flexibility to create the most interesting matchup, potentially boosting revenues for struggling bowl committees.

Matt Sanderson, co-founder of Playoff PAC, told the San Diego Union Times that the rule could allow bowls with open slots for at-large teams to select power-conference teams with 6-6 records over smaller-conference teams with winning records.

Sanderson points to this season's GMAC Bowl, which took 9-3 Troy as an at-large team. Under the revised rules, the GMAC Bowl could have offered the at-large slot to 6-6 Notre Dame.

While the new provision still needs an OK by the greater NCAA, most rule revisions that make it out of committee are approved.

Suffice to say... no one wants to see a bad 6-6 team stink it up in a marquee bowl game. The reality is that - with new bowls coming on in Yankee Stadium and the Cotton Bowl - there are going to be 70 teams in bowl games this year. If a bowl needs to dig deep and get an at-large team, I would prefer them to create the most interesting game they can.

No disrespect intended, but I would *much* rather see a hypothetical 6-6 Southern Cal as an at-large against Alabama, for example, over a 7-5 Louisiana Monroe.

Just sayin.

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Big 10 to expand and become Big 16?

Mon, 05 Apr 2010 10:07:57 -0500

Tony Barnhart is hearing whispers from conference commissioners indicating that the Big 10 is at least considering expanding to a superconference of 16 teams.

The Big Ten is looking at three plans: Stand pat with 11 teams, add one team (hopefully Notre Dame) or make a blockbuster move and go to 16.
"If they go to 16 and one of them is Notre Dame then we've got an entirely new ball game," a conference commissioner told me confidentially.

According to Barnhart, the Big 10 would potentially add Notre Dame and four other Big East teams. It's hard to distinguish if he has any leads on who those teams could be, but Barnhart theorizes that the target list may include Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, and UConn.

Of course this opens a whole host of other possibilities....

Where do the other Big East football schools go?

Would some mish-mash of Big East / Conference USA start a new conference?

Would the ACC expand to 16 as well by taking in the Big East leftovers?

Would the SEC expand to 16 to ensure that the conference doesn't lose its considerable negotiating advantage to the new Big 16? And, as Barnhart ponders, who would the SEC invite?

Does the SEC get aggressive and pick up the phone call Texas? That's the one school that would move the financial needle to improve the great deal the SEC already has. And if you take Texas, you have to take Texas A&M because of the politics. Does the SEC take another look at Florida State and Miami and see if those schools would be interested in leaving the ACC for a better financial deal?

It's hard to even imagine an SEC that adds the collective football prominence of Texas, Texas A&M, FSU and Miami. Not to mention its gains in Title IX sports and spring sports such as baseball, track, and golf.

A 16-team Big 10 would definitely be a behemoth, but the ripple effects... *that's* where superconference expansion would get interesting.

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