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BCS Standings - Week 8 - Oct. 18, 2009

Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:06:55 -0500

The initial BCS Standings for games played through October 17, 2009.

Rank	Team	Harris Poll		USA TODAY		Computer Rank		BCS average

1	Florida	1	0.9832	1	0.9925	1	0.990	0.988566756

2	Alabama	2	0.9600	2	0.9478	2	0.950	0.952598870

3	Texas	3	0.9337	3	0.9397	6	0.800	0.891115076

4	Boise State	5	0.8032	5	0.7817	5	0.840	0.808284270

5	Cincinnati	6	0.7625	6	0.7485	4	0.850	0.786976906

6	Iowa	7	0.7175	8	0.7031	3	0.940	0.786864902

7	USC	4	0.8400	4	0.8386	11	0.630	0.769548023

8	TCU	8	0.7070	7	0.7247	8	0.710	0.713921102

9	LSU	9	0.7004	10	0.6746	7	0.750	0.708309049

10	Miami, Fla.	10	0.6653	9	0.6766	13	0.540	0.627291109

11	Oregon	12	0.5533	14	0.5214	9	0.680	0.584896422

12	Georgia Tech	13	0.5225	13	0.5281	10	0.660	0.570197245

13	Penn State	11	0.5684	11	0.6061	17	0.320	0.498174249

14	Virginia Tech	15	0.4484	15	0.4556	12	0.580	0.494671424

15	Oklahoma State	14	0.5039	12	0.5390	21	0.170	0.404280900

16	BYU	16	0.4246	16	0.3912	25	0.080	0.298582615

17	Houston	18	0.2926	18	0.2854	18	0.220	0.266018436

18	Utah	19	0.2200	20	0.2034	14	0.330	0.251129944

19	Ohio State	17	0.3288	17	0.3261	32	0.010	0.221624542

20	Pittsburgh	20	0.1912	19	0.2224	20	0.190	0.201200317

21	Wisconsin	38	0.0063	31	0.0176	14	0.330	0.117980969

22	Arizona	37	0.0067	40	0.0047	14	0.330	0.113804143

23	West Virginia	23	0.0965	22	0.1275	24	0.110	0.111316285

24	South Carolina	26	0.0758	23	0.0963	22	0.140	0.104020220

25	Kansas	21	0.1414	21	0.1505	33	0.000	0.097303994

As my good friend Ben would say, there's a significant gap between Alabama at #2 and Texas at #3. The Horns are not helped at all by their computer standing; however, significant opportunities exist for UT to improve their standing by the weight of the remaining schedule (including a game with BCS #15 Okie State). If the Longhorns can hold serve for the balance of the year, an unbeaten Texas team could punch their ticket for the National Championship Game against the winner of the SEC title game.

Further down, it's difficult to see any substantial lift to Boise State (in other words, the Broncos will *not* be playing for the title). On the other hand, Iowa still has a nice slate that could help boost the Hawkeyes, but there's no question that they need some help above them, including losses by all but one of the teams ranked ahead of them (plus some significant wins by Ohio State to bring up the Big 10's status with the computers).

ALL THAT SAID... it's BCS week one and that means a lot can (and will) change.

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Gator Bowl to match SEC vs Big Ten; more bowl shakeups ensue

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 10:43:42 -0500

After months of wrangling and having the ACC reject the bowl's latest proposal, the Gator Bowl is finalizing a four-year agreement that will pit an SEC team against a Big 10 team in the 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons.

Officials from the SEC have already confirmed their participation to The Birmingham News. Under the terms, the Gator will get "at least" the sixth pick of bowl-eligible SEC teams. The pick position could vary on a year-to-year basis, but more details would be announced once the Big 10 announces its bowl agreements next week.

The Gator Bowl is also in final talks to become part of a broadcast deal with ESPN, leaving CBS, in a move that could signal the end of the exclusive broadcast window that has been previously negotiated for the Capital One Bowl.

With the Cotton Bowl moving to January 2nd, the result of the Gator Bowl agreement means that all three non-BCS games on New Years Day will feature SEC vs Big 10 matchups.

With the end of the ACC / Big East relationship in the Gator Bowl, the ACC and Big East have signed an agreement with the Champs Bowl which will essentially recreates the conferences past Gator relationship in Orlando.

Under the terms to begin with the 2010 season, the ACC will send its #3 selection to the Champs Bowl to face the Big East's #2 selection or Notre Dame. The Champs can select Notre Dame once over the four year agreement if the Irish have seven wins and are within two wins of the #2 Big East school.

With the Gator Bowl now aligned with SEC, the Independence Bowl finds itself as odd-man out in the SEC bowl mix after 15 years with the conference. Instead, the Independence Bowl will look to sign a new bowl matchup between the ACC and Mountain West.

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Round 5: MWC - Put up or Shut up: WAC

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:04:39 -0500

Week 4 only saw one game against a BCS opponent by a MWC team that no one expected to put up a fight. With several games against the WAC this was a chance for the MWC to separate themselves from the rest of the conferences begging for BCS scraps.

And they failed.

Using the emulated BCS automatic qualification standards the WAC leads the MWC from 2006-2008. 2008 was the only year in the past 3 where the MWC outperformed the WAC. Currently the gap between Boise State and TCU is roughly equal to the value of the MWC having a second team in the top 25. This week will help shape how they rank in the third criteria, average ranking of all teams in teh BCS computeres.

Top:
TCU handled their historic SWC rival SMU, as is the norm this decade. Few questions were answered in this game and TCU remains as big a question mark at this point this year as Utah was at this point last year.

Utah was off so we gained little new information, hough Oregon continued to redeem themselves.

BYU handled their instate rival Utah State by the exact score Utah beat them to open the season. Like the weekends for TCU and Utah we know about as much as we did last year.

Middle:
Air Force looks to have lost the commander in cheif trophy to Navy again this year. The possibility remains that Army could surprise everyone and claim it, adding a loss in the MWC only remaining OOC game of the regular season.

CSU lost a close battle to a surprising Idaho team.

UNLV got destroyed by Nevada, who looked like they spent the first four weeks looking ahead to this one game.

Bottom:
SDSU prevented New Mexico State from upending two MWC teams in as many weeks.

Wyoming also secured a win in a close game at Florida Atlantic.

New Mexico showed up and got payed by Texas Tech.

Summary
The MWC is 5-9 vs. BCS opponents. This gives them a PCT of 0.357, less than the 0.400 required by their own standards for a BCS automatic qualification.

Their 6-4 record over the WAC should give them a slight lead in the BCS computers for the third criteria, but prevent them from being anywhere near warranting a BCS automatic qualification at this time.

So what now?
The MWC's case for this season will ride on whether they can again get 3 teams into the top 25, or one into a BCS bowl. TCU could make for an interesting race with Boise State, but more than likely Boise State would have to lose one to open the door.

If Boise State goes to a BCS bowl, this would give the WAC 3 years of BCS participation to the MWC's 2. If they are selected over an undefeated TCU, who beat them in last years Poinsettia Bowl, this would help atone for Boise State being left out for Utah in 2004 and 2008, a team they have beat the last three meetings.

Utah can not lose to both TCU and BYU and getinto the top 25. A loss in the final week to Utah likely puts BYU out of the top 25 as well, unless they beat TCU first. The only way three MWC teams finish ranked is if they split and all beat every other MWC team.

Not much more will change until the bowls are announced. At that time I will continue with round 6, followed by the final count after the bowls.

Comment on Round 5: MWC - Put up or Shut up: WAC...

Washington drops future games with BYU

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:36:49 -0500

Not sure if this is a sign of where BYU football is or where Washington football is, but - either way - the Huskies have opted out of two future games against the Cougars, according to the Salt Lake Tribune.

The two schools were originally scheduled to play in Seattle in 2011 and at BYU in 2012. Next season, Washington will travel to Provo for a return game from the contest played in Husky Stadium on Sept. 6, 2008. The Cougars have a 3-4 record in previous meetings versus Washington, including a 28-27 victory in 2008.

I think it's a shame that the Huskies won't be playing two more against BYU. This has all the makings of a pretty balanced series. That said... BYU now has two open dates to go out and land a quality BCS opponent.

Game on!

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Round 4: MWC - Put up or Shut up: MWC

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 23:51:50 -0500

Week 4 went saw the MWC recover somewhat from a horrible week 3 performance but lacked any big surprises. Several opponents that have been used to measure MWC teams have had serious perception changes that might influence MWC team's perception.

Top
TCU secured another win in the MWC's marque game of the week. Clemson is a solid team but at this point looks to be close to Georgia Tech who could not manage Miami. TCU climbs into the top 10 in Coaches Poll and narrowed its gap behind Boise State in all polls.

Utah got some credibility back when Oregon manhandled California. A solid win over Louisville did not hurt. Losing RB Matt Asiata for the season might limit their ability down the stretch. Utah should be ranked in the top 25.

BYU handled their first conference game by ending CSU's undefeated season. Their loss to FSU looked more critical with FSU's loss to USF. Oklahoma has not faced any stiff competition since BYU and their game against Miami this week could bring some clarity to this picture. If Miami wins big it could indicate that BYU looks to be behind TCU and Utah again this year.

Middle
UNLV lost a road trip to Wyoming in their conference opener. This raises questions about where these two teams stand, as Wyoming had been looking like a team the MWC would rather keep solidly in the bottom by OOC play.

Air Force took care of business against SDSU.

Bottom
New Mexico lost to their in state rival New Mexico Statein what looks like a sinking ship.

Summary
2-0 vs. BCS opponents is never a bad week. While this season has taken a step back from the levels achieved by the MWC in 2008, it is still better than where they were any year prior. All in all, i'd say the MWC has not lived up to their claims in 2009, and will need a good showing in the bowls to change this.

So far the MWC is 5-8 vs. BCS opponents. The MWC's proposal required conferences to maintain a record above 0.400 to determine automatic qualifications. With one game remaining this will require a win for this year, or a winning record vs. BCS opponents in the bowls. From 2006-2009 the MWC is 27-32. The MWC would have to lose the next 8 games to fall below 0.400 over a four year window.

Preview
Week 5 features the last round of significant OOC play before all teams settle into the conference schedules. Only one OOC game remains after this week (Army at Air Force). Anything worse than 2 losses would be bad for week 5, but 5 games will be close and one loss appears certain.

This week starts with BYU vs. Utah State on their traditional Friday game time. This game is held on Friday because the LDS church has general conference this Saturday.

Air Force will play Navy in a game that should determine the Commander in Chief trophy.

New Mexico faces Texas Tech in the MWC's last regular season game against BCS opponents. New Mexico is not Houston.

UNLV travels to Nevada to face their in state rival, who will be hungry to regain credibility at their expense.

Wyoming gets to travel to Florida Atlantic for a chance to build their claim to join the middle of the MWC.

TCU hosts rival SMU in what should be a solid win.

SDSU hosts New Mexico State, who would love to secure two consecutive wins vs. MWC opponents.

CSU travels to Idaho for an unexpected battle of 3-1 teams. Could the Vandals be a challenger for Boise State this year? The winner of this game might even get a vote or two in the ORV section of the polls.

Utah plays the mighty BYE, who manages to play dozens of teams each week.

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2009-2010 College Football Bowl Game Television Schedule

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:09:51 -0500

Despite what you may hear from skeptics, there's no better season in all of sports than college football bowl season and the complete television schedule for the bowl games is right here on Fanblogs, brought to you by BangTheBook.com.

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Date/Time/TV	Bowl	Site	Matchup
Saturday Dec. 19 2 :30 pm ET ESPN	New Mexico Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Albuquerque, NM University Stadium	Mountain West vs. WAC
Saturday Dec. 19 8:00 pm ET ESPN	St. Petersburg Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	St. Petersburg, FL Tropicana Field	Big East vs. C-USA
Sunday Dec. 20 8:00 pm ET ESPN	R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	New Orleans, LA Louisiana Superdome	C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Tuesday Dec. 22 8:00 pm ET ESPN	MAACO Bowl Las Vegas Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Las Vegas, NV Sam Boyd Stadium	Mountain West vs. Pac Ten
Wednesday Dec. 23 8:00 pm ET ESPN	San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Diego, CA Qualcomm Stadium	Mountain West vs. Pac Ten
Thursday Dec. 24 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Honolulu, HI Aloha Stadium	C-USA vs. WAC
Saturday Dec. 26 4:30 pm ET ESPN	Meineke Car Care Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Charlotte, NC Bank of America Stadium	ACC vs. Big East
Saturday Dec. 26 5 :00 pm ET ESPN	Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Detroit, MI Ford Field	Big Ten vs. MAC
Saturday Dec. 26 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Emerald Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Francisco, CA AT&T Park	ACC vs. Pac Ten
Sunday Dec. 27 8:15 pm ET ESPN	Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Nashville, TN LP Field	ACC vs. SEC
Monday Dec. 28 5:00 pm ET ESPN	PetroSun Independence Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Shreveport, LA Independence Stadium	Big 12 vs. SEC
Tuesday Dec. 29 4:30 pm ET ESPN	EagleBank Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Washington, DC RFK Stadium	ACC vs. U.S. Military Academy
Tuesday Dec. 29 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Champs Sports Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Orlando, FL Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium	ACC vs. Big Ten
Wednesday Dec. 30 4:30 pm ET ESPN	Roady's Humanitarian Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Boise, ID Bronco Stadium	Mountain West vs. WAC
Wednesday Dec. 30 8:00 pm ET NFL Network	Texas Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Houston, TX Reliant Stadium	Big 12 vs. U.S. Naval Academy
Wednesday Dec. 30 8:00 pm ET ESPN	Pacific Life Holiday Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Diego, CA Qualcomm Stadium	Big 12 vs. Pac Ten
Thursday Dec. 31 Time TBA ESPN	Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Fort Worth, TX Amon G. Carter Stadium	C-USA vs. Mountain West
Thursday Dec. 31 12:00 pm ET CBS	Brut Sun Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	El Paso, TX Sun Bowl Stadium	Pac Ten vs. Big East / Big 12
Thursday Dec. 31 5:30 pm ET NFL Network	Insight Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Tempe, AZ Sun Devil Stadium	Big Ten vs. Big 12
Thursday Dec. 31 7:30 pm ET ESPN	Chick-fil-A Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Atlanta, GA Georgia Dome	ACC vs. SEC
Friday Jan. 1 11:00 am ET ESPN	Outback Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Tampa, FL Raymond James Stadium	ACC vs. Big Ten
Friday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET CBS	Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	ACC vs. Big East / Big 12 / Notre Dame
Friday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET ABC	Capital One Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Orlando, FL Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium	Big Ten vs. SEC
Friday Jan. 1 5:00 pm ET ABC	Rose Bowl presented by Citi Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Pasadena, CA Rose Bowl	BCS (Big Ten) vs. BCS (Pac Ten)
Friday Jan. 1 8:30 pm ET FOX	Allstate Sugar Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	New Orleans, LA Superdome	BCS vs. BCS
Saturday Jan. 2 12:00 pm ET ESPN2	International Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Toronto, Canada Rogers Centre	Big East vs. MAC
Saturday Jan. 2 2 :00 pm ET ESPN	PapaJohns.com Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Birmingham, AL Legion Field	Big East vs. SEC
Saturday Jan. 2 2:00 pm ET FOX	AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Arlington, TX Cowboys Stadium	Big 12 vs. SEC
Saturday Jan. 2 5:30 pm ET ESPN	AutoZone Liberty Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Memphis, TN Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium	C-USA vs. SEC
Saturday Jan. 2 9 :00 pm ET ESPN	Valero Alamo Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	San Antonio, TX Alamodome	Big Ten vs. Big 12
Monday Jan. 4 8:00 pm ET FOX	Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Glendale, AZ University of Phoenix Stadium	BCS (Big 12) vs. BCS
Tuesday Jan. 5 8:00 pm ET FOX	FedEx Orange Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Miami, FL Dolphin Stadium	BCS (ACC) vs. BCS
Wednesday Jan. 6 7 :00 pm ET ESPN	GMAC Bowl Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Mobile, AL Ladd Peebles Stadium	ACC vs. MAC
Thursday Jan. 7 8:00 pm ET FOX	BCS National Championship Game Bowl Tickets Flights + Hotels Odds & Picks	Pasadena, CA Rose Bowl	BCS #1 vs. BCS #2

The 2009 college football season will be capped by exciting college football bowl games, including the 2009 Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, the 2009 Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona, the 2009 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana, the 2009 Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida and the 2009 BCS National Championship Game in Pasadena, CA.

The best college football teams from the major conferences, including the Big10 conference, Big 12 conference, Pac 10 conference, ACC conference, Big East conference, SEC conference, and Mountain West conference will face off in college football bowl games throughout December and into January.

If you're looking for updated matchups, odds, insights, betting lines and online wagering for the college football bowl games, please be sure to try BangTheBook.com.

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Round 3: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:26:09 -0500

Wow.

For a MWC fan this weekend was devastating. While not the end of the world, the MWC's bite has failed to live up to its bark in week 3. The top of the MWC, its alleged strength, took serious loses and the middle and bottom did nothing to mitigate these losses.

While last week was a minor set back, this week set the MWC back beyond the gain for BYU's upset of Oklahoma and started to cut into the credibility from Utah's Sugar Bowl win.

Top
BYU hosted FSU as a 7 point favorite and lost 54-28. As a result, a chunk of their turf will now reside in Tallahassee. They also drop from the top 10 to near #25. Somehow they got a bit of a USC effect and remain above the team that beat them in the coaches poll. This year BYU's defense began shifting their focus to increase speed. This game showed they still have a lot of work to do here.

Oregon was favored to beat Utah by 4 and covered with a 31-24 win. Utah struggled in the second quarter to get any kind of momentum but managed to close the 14 point gap in the second half. This game made both teams look like they had some serious work to do before going into their conference slate.

TCU came out sloppy against Texas State and allowed them to stay within 14 until TCU went on a 21 point run in the fourth quarter. I can only hope they were looking towards this weeks game at Clemson.

Middle
UNLV scored one of the bright moments for the conference by coming back to beat Hawaii 34-33, helping to verify that the middle of the MWC is better than the middle of the WAC.

Air Force won their first conference game against New Mexico 37-13. Frankly, if New Mexico wins a game in conference this year it will be bad for the conference. They took this spot from SDSU this year.

At the start of the season CSU and Nevada looked like it might be a good test for CSU, but Nevada has struggled mightily since then and the 35-20 win by CSU is diminished. This does solidify their place in the middle of the conference, which was questionable to start the year.

Bottom
SDSU lost their road trip to Idaho 34-20. Apparently the bottom of the WAC is competitive with the bottom of the MWC.

Wyoming was shut out by Colorado 24-0, and Toledo put up 50+ on them? Wyoming is almost right with New Mexico

Summary
The MWC went 0-3 against BCS conference members. While last week brought the middle into question, this week took a bite out of the top of the conference. The MWC has lost the credibility it earned the opening week.

It appears the MWC was enjoying a housing market like bubble which has now burst. The result is that rankings, like housing prices, have restored to their proper market value.

I compared this years week 3 simulated BCS standings with those of the past 2 years. The non-AQ conferences went from 2 to 4 to 4 teams in the top 25 while the MWC went from 0 to 2 to 2. The MWC appears to be near where it sat last year after TCU lost to Oklahoma, which is still far better than they were any year prior.

They will need to finish strong and have a solid bowl season to avoid being dismissed completely.

Must wins
The MWC only has 3 out of conference games this week and really needs to win them all to gain credibility.
2 out of three will maintain the current meh. None of these games will come easy.

TCU travels to the much anticipated game against Clemson.

Utah hosts Louisville in the only game between the Big East and the MWC this season. This game will draw far too much attention in the MWC vs. Big East debate, no matter how the game goes.

New Mexico host in state rival New Mexico State in a largely one sided rivalry. New Mexico is way down as they break in a new coaching staff and should make a game of it. A win here would reduce how bad New Mexico, the likely bottom of the MWC, is perceived.

Conference play
Undefeated CSU is getting a few points in the polls and could make a significant jump with a win over BYU, at the cost of knocking BYU out of the top 25. Getting a fourth team into top 25 striking distance would be a huge plus for the MWC.

Air Force and UNLV should handle SDSU and Wyoming respectively.

Closing
The next installment will be next Tuesday night with the final regular season installment the following week, as only one game out of conference remains after that point.

Once bowl schedules are announced an installment will follow, and the concluding installment will come after the bowls are finished.

P.S. TE and WEA, we need some more SEC and ACC threads. What gives? ; )

Comment on Round 3: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS...

Nation's longest FBS winning streak ends

Sat, 19 Sep 2009 22:22:15 -0500

The longest winning streak in the nation, 16 games from 2007-2009, ended with a 31-24 road loss to Oregon. Their 18 game streak in 2003-2005 is the longest in their history and it was tied with a streak in the 20's for the second longest. Utah's nation leading 9 game road winning streak also ended. Utah still has their nation leading 8 game (6 in consecutive years) bowl winning streak.

Florida now has the longest winning streak at 10 games.

Prior to this week it appeared that a MWC team could make a BCS berth with a loss. After this week that is not so promising. More on that latter this week when I continue my series "MWC: Put up or shut up."

The game was close to the very end, though Oregon had the lead since taking a 14-7 lead in the first. Utah gave up way too many yards on kick returns, including a punt return on their first punt of the game. Utah's offense also look problematic, verifying concerns revealed in the first two games are worse than one could have hoped.

When Utah's last streak ended they had a serious lack of talent and their motivation folded. They stumbled to a win the next week before dropping 3 in a row. I don't expect this to happen again this year, but I also don't think they have the offensive weapons it will take to win the MWC. 9-3 should be in reach and a chance to extend their bowl winning streak, maybe in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Oregon has regained some of the credibility lost in their opening game to Boise State, thought they will have to prove themselves in the PAC 10.

Good game Mayor, now excuse me while I begin trying to forget/justify this weekend. The whole weekend. Every game.

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Round 2: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:22:50 -0500

This week the top MWC teams took a step back from the spotlight and gave an opportunity for the middle of the pack to step up and earn a share of the spotlight. They failed. At least the MWC was spared any catastrophic losses. Last week also helped clarify the middle from the bottom of the MWC.

Top:
BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility.

Middle:
Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games.

UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach's reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step.

CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo.

Bottom:
Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don't think Texas covered the 33 points.

SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss.

New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table.

Summary:
The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season.

Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is.

Expected wins:
BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC's favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls.

TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah...

Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week.

Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State.

Close calls:
CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC.

SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game.

Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC.

New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.

Comment on Round 2: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS...

simulated BCS Standings: Week 2

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:37:44 -0500

Our friend Samuel Chi at BCS Guru has published this weeks simulated BCS standings. For a more detailed explanation of how the ranking is simulated follow the link provided.

For an explanation for why the computers are hating on Florida see his writeup for the current week.

Bold indicates the highest ranked teams from automatic qualifying(AQ) conferences, a strike represent additional teams from the SEC and Big 12. Teams vying for a final AQ awarded to the highest ranked team from a conference without an AQ if at least one makes the final top 12 are in italics. The remaining teams (including those in italics not selected) are fighting for the last remaining BCS openings. Gaps represent large differences in the BCS standigns.

1) USC 0.8727

2) Texas 0.7882
3) Alabama 0.7870
4) ~~Florida~~ 0.7540

5) ~~LSU~~ 0.6655
6) California 0.6460
7) Boise State 0.6097
8) Penn State 0.5992
9) BYU 0.5987

10) ~~Ole Miss~~ 0.5240

11) Ohio State 0.4332
12) ~~Oklahoma~~ 0.4050
13) Georgia Tech 0.3727
14) TCU 0.3651
===BCS Eligibility Line===
15) Utah 0.3505
16) Virginia Tech 0.3500

17) ~~Oklahoma State~~ 0.2552
18) North Carolina 0.2460
19) ~~Nebraska~~ 0.2176
20) Cincinnati 0.1979
===Watch Line===
21) Houston 0.1880
22) ~~Georgia~~ 0.1697
23) Miami(FL) 0.1467
24) ~~Missouri~~ 0.1375
25) Pittsburgh 0.1284

As usual the Big 12 and SEC dominate the standings with 5 teams each, many near the top.

Currently three teams from outside the BCS AQ conferences have crossed the #14 ranking needed to become BCS eligible. Two have made it into the top 10. A total of five are present in the top 25. This all suggests that a robust push by the MWC, WAC and C-USA to earn their AQ is underway.

If BYU wins this week against FSU they should take the lead from Boise State and hold it until they lose a game.

California (or USC) and Ohio State (or Penn State) are the only obstacles blocking the BCS from being forced to take a second team from outside the six AQ conferences. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are on deck to fill any vacancies, despite the media bombardment directed at the ACC so far this year.

The ACC certainly is not looking to be as even across the board as it was last year. If they are, it will be serious trouble for them.

The Big East also advanced further into the standings with Cincinnati entering the watch list and Pittsburgh joining them in the top 25, reflecting a strong early performance against mostly outmatched opponents. This week should be a good barometer of how good the Big East really is. Have we all really forgotten 2006 and 2007 already?

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sim-BCS Standings: Week 1

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:00:04 -0500

Here are the top 20 in this weeks simulated BCS Standings. Since no official standings come out yet, this is as good as it gets. Samual Chi at BCS Guru does very good.

The highest ranked team from each BCS conference is in bold. Remaining teams from the SEC and Big 12 are in italics, as a second team from each should be expected. BYU, Boise State, TCU and Utah are in contention for the final automatic qualification (as long as at least one finishes in the top 12). The remaining teams are fighting for the lone remaining BCS slot. Gaps represent large seperations in rankings.

1) FLorida
2) USC
3) Texas
2) Alabama

5) Oklahoma State
6) Ohio State
7) Penn State

8) BYU
9) Boise State
10) California
11) LSU
12) Mississippi
13) Oklahoma

14) TCU
=== BCS Eligibility Line ===
15) Utah
16) Virginia Tech
17) Georgia Tech

18) Georgia
19) Missouri
20) Cincinnati
=== BCS Watch List ===
21) Miami (FL)
22) Nebraska
23) Notre Dame
24) Texas Tech
25) North Carolina

BYU at #9 this early, with a win over a top 15 team and 2 teams left in the top 20, is looking like a far better chance at the championship game than any team from outside the BCS has seen. The fact that TCU and Utah are not far behind indicates the MWC has drawn significant credibility in the BCS formula. CSU and Air Force also got some points towards the bottom of the listing.

Boise State has to hope Oregon turns things around this season. No other WAC or MAC team is earning any BCS points, and other than UC Davis this is all Boise State has remaining. Unlike BYU, Boise State does not have a schedule that will prevent significant numbers of teams from passing them in the standigns as the year goes on.

With four teams from outside the BCS conferences already in the top 15, and 2 in the top 10, I think we can assume at least one will make it in this year. It appears that Penn State (or Ohio State) and California (or USC) are the only impediments currently foiling a second such team from securing a BCS berth. The ACC is down. but not completely out here and Notre Dame is lurking just outside at #23

The Big East has emerged in the top 25, with Cincinnati breaking into the top 20.

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2009 - Week 2 College Football Polls

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:10:24 -0500

College football polls for week two - games played through 9/7/2009.

AP College Football Poll
1. Florida (56) 1-0 1493 1
2. Texas (2) 1-0 1424 2
3. USC 1-0 1355 4
4. Alabama (2) 1-0 1331 5
5. Oklahoma St. 1-0 1201 9
6. Mississippi 1-0 1095 8
7. Penn St. 1-0 1082 9
8. Ohio St. 1-0 985 6
9. BYU 1-0 984 20
10. California 1-0 971 12
11. LSU 1-0 890 11
12. Boise St. 1-0 882 14
13. Oklahoma 0-1 782 3
14. Virginia Tech 0-1 652 7
15. Georgia Tech 1-0 630 15
16. TCU 0-0 523 17
17. Utah 1-0 404 19
18. Notre Dame 1-0 383 23
19. North Carolina 1-0 338 21
20. Miami (FL) 1-0 315 NR
21. Georgia 0-1 294 13
22. Nebraska 1-0 266 24
23. Cincinnati 1-0 248 NR
24. Kansas 1-0 196 25
25. Missouri 1-0 126 NR

Others Receiving Votes:
Oregon St. 113, Michigan St. 83, Pittsburgh 82, Texas Tech 53, Oregon 47, Clemson 40, Florida St. 39, West Virginia 32, Tennessee 30, Iowa 24, UCLA 18, Michigan 18, Baylor 17, Boston Coll. 14, Arizona 12, East Carolina 6, Auburn 4, Colorado St. 4, Air Force 4, South Carolina 3, Arkansas 3, Tulsa 1, Southern Miss 1, Houston 1, South Florida 1

USA Today Coaches Poll
1. Florida (56) 1-0 1472 1
2. Texas (2) 1-0 1407 2
3. USC (1) 1-0 1352 4
4. Alabama 1-0 1299 5
5. Penn St. 1-0 1145 8
6. Oklahoma St. 1-0 1114 11
7. Ohio St. 1-0 1106 6
8. Mississippi 1-0 1006 10
9. LSU 1-0 977 9
10. California 1-0 935 12
11. Boise St. 1-0 803 16
12. BYU 1-0 755 24
13. Georgia Tech 1-0 685 15
14. Oklahoma 0-1 682 3
15. Virginia Tech 0-1 633 7
16. TCU 0-0 543 17
17. Utah 1-0 503 18
18. Nebraska 1-0 360 22
19. North Carolina 1-0 358 20
20. Notre Dame 1-0 335 23
21. Georgia 0-1 304 13
22. Miami (FL) 1-0 276 NR
23. Cincinnati 1-0 187 NR
24. Oregon St. 1-0 169 25
25. Kansas 1-0 139 NR

Others Receiving Votes:
Michigan St. 133, Missouri 97, Iowa 70, Florida St. 62, Texas Tech 53, Oregon 50, Pittsburgh 26, Clemson 24, South Carolina 23, Tennessee 21, West Virginia 13, Auburn 13, South Florida 12, Kentucky 8, Arizona 5, Northwestern 4, Michigan 4, Boston Coll. 3, Arkansas 2, UCLA 2, Baylor 2, Tulsa 1, Colorado St. 1, Minnesota 1

CBS College Blogpoll

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Round 1: MWC - Put up or Shut up: MWC

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:14:04 -0500

Last year the MWC ended the season with a conference record 3 teams in the final BCS standings and capped off the season with a stunning upset in the 2009 Sugar Bowl over an Alabama team that spent half the season at the top of the polls.

If they had left it at that 2009 would be simply be about whether they could maintain their success over an extended period of time. The BCS has procedures in place to periodically evaluate the conferences to determine future automatic qualifications. According to Bill Hancock, the BCS administrator, the Mountain West has a solid leg up for 2012. (To be evaluated based on 2008-2011 data.)

Instead they petitioned to be included presently and offered a proposed playoff to allow them access to the championship game. They took their case before congress and threatened to bring an anti-trust case against them. They rose the banter to a point that forces the issue in 2009.

If the MWC fails to follow up with a solid year like 2009 they are left looking silly from their talk and would have left a stain for any other conference attempting to garner a spot in the future. A failure in 2009 will not only diminish their hope for 2012 but will cloud any future hope as well. Success and the media cry will reach an unprecedented level.

Round 1 is complete and the MWC has done well.

Solid wins:
#20 BYU 14 #3 Oklahoma 13 at Dallas Texas

This game shows the growing respect the MWC is earning by having a MWC team selected to participate in the first collegiate game at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. This game is discussed elsewhere, including the injury sustained by Sam Bradford.

CSU 23 at Colorado 17

Three of the last 4 times CSU has defeated Colorado, CSU has won a share of the MWC championship, 2 outright. The other time saw Colorado go 2-9. While this win does not put CSU into the middle of the MWC title picture yet, it certainly lines them up for the #4 spot, ready to move up to #3 is TCU, Utah of BYU stumble down the stretch.

Other wins:
Utah 35 Utah State 17

This defensive game saw Utah score 2 safeties in an unusual path to 35 points. The game was not as close as the score indicates as Utah State scored one TD on a 96 yard rush with two blown assignments and the other after an interception gave them the ball with 5 yards to go. Utah has some work to do, and their schedule got a bit of a down-grade, courtesy of Boise State, this week.

Air Force 72 Nicholls State 0

Is this more or less impressive than 62-3 over Charleston Southern? You be the judge.

UNLV 38 Sacramento State 3

This one is less impressive, but really, WHY!!!

Wyoming 29 Weber State 22

At least Weber State is nearly as good as Appalachian State, who gave East Carolina a run for their money. Was Wyoming simply looking past them at a chance to host Texas? Remember back 4-5 years ago when 2 for 1 deals were hot?

Losses:
Texas A&M 41 vs. New Mexico 6

I was anticipating this game thinking New Mexico would get the ambush. I was wrong.

UCLA 33 vs. SDSU 14

SDSU was up 14-0 at one point. Then UCLA, as expected, took control of the game.

OFF
TCU

Results
The MWC went 2-2 vs. the BCS conferences in week 1 and 6-2 over all. This includes a 2-1 record vs. the Big 12. BYU should be close to, if not in, the top 10. Utah and TCU should slide up past a few teams dropping below them with losses. CSU and Air Force might pick up some points at the bottom of the ORV column.

MWC vs. BCS in round 2:

TCU at Virginia: TCU starts the season against a team that lost its opener to William and Mary.

Air Force at Minnesota: Minnesota played Syracuse to an OT win while Air Force easily handled their scrimmage. This should be a good test for both teams.

Oregon State at UNLV: Both teams ran over FCS teams. Oregon State should help avenge the PAC 10 vs. the MWC in this one.

Texas at Wyoming: If Wyoming wins this I will LMAO.

Tulsa might win at New Mexico, but other than that the MWC should win the rest. I am nervous about Utah's trip to San Jose State.

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Sooner fans: Don't put all your blame in one basket

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 09:04:24 -0500

In checking the blogs and youtube videos this morning, I'm seeing an alarming number of Oklahoma faithful who are pinning the 13-14 loss to BYU solely on an injury to Heisman winner Sam Bradford or a missed 53-yard field goal attempt by a freshman punter hand-picked by Stoops to try the game winner.

With all due respect to the Sooner nation, that dog just won't hunt. For certain, the injury and missed field goal hurt, but - beyond those to factors - there's a longer list of reason why BYU won last night.

When Bradford when down, the game was tied on the scoreboard, but BYU was already out-gaining the Sooners. Despite a strong effort from OU's defense, the Cougars ended the night averaging five yards per play and racking up nearly 100 more net yards than Oklahoma. If you let a team like BYU get away from you on the box score, you're probably going to get beat on the scoreboard, too.

The Sooners never got in a rhythm on offense - even when Bradford was in the game - because the offensive line never owned the line of scrimmage. The same unit that Kevin Wilson praised in August fell flat on its face in September. Three false start penalties... on the opening drive? Repeatedly missing assignments on linebackers (one of which led to the Bradford injury)? Failing to move the smaller Cougar defense in the trenches? Does anyone still think converting a tight end to center is a great idea today?

Late in the game and holding a three-point lead, Stoops elected to kick a field goal from BYU's six-yard line. The coach's decision gave OU a 13-7 lead, but it also meant that BYU was going to get the ball back with a chance to win in a one-score game. During the post-game, Stoops was asked about that fateful decision.

"I did (think about going for it)," Stoops said. "That's on us as coaches."

Stoops decision opened the door for the one-point loss, but - in all honesty - it was the Cougars who left points on the field. Not only did BYU miss a field goal of their own, but the Cougars also fumbled inside the red zone and punted twice from within OU territory. A one-point win could have easily been an eleven point BYU victory.

As strong as the Sooners may become this season, they weren't good enough to overcome their own mistakes or bounce back from BYU's punches.

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2009 Preseason BCS Standings (Simulated)

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 09:46:08 -0500

The legendary BCS Guru has his simulated preseason BCS standings posted for the 2009 season. With the Coaches poll on the books along with three computer polls already posted, it's never too early to dig deeper on the BCS implications.

The results? No big surprises, but a few interesting notes....

BCSGURU.COM Simulated BCS Preseason Standings
For the purpose of this preseason simulation, BCSGURU uses AP, Coaches, and three computer polls. Remember that AP poll is *not* a BCS component. This is a simulation.

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Ohio State

BCSGuru already sees a lean for USC in the computer polls over Texas and Oklahoma. It will be interesting to keep an eye on this trend, especially when you factor the bump that the USC-Ohio State winner will get after week one.

Three non-AQ teams are lumped together in the simulated BCS, just as they are in the human polls. Boise State (#15), TCU (#16), and Utah (#17) all have an outside chance to make a run into an qualifier position.

Finally, Notre Dame is *not* getting any respect in the computer polls. The Irish average a #47 ranking, which means they will really need to prove it on the field this year. It seems unlikely that UND will crack the BCS top 15 without some really strong performances against what has the appearance of a soft (by UND standards) schedule this year.

For much, much more analysis, check out the entire preseason simulation at BCSGuru.com.

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