Fantasy Baseball Strategies

Young Players to Watch in 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 05:08:00 +0000

Reid Brignac
Brignac has had a nice 2010 thus far. Despite not being an every day player, he has put up respectable numbers, hitting .273 with 4 HR, 30 RBI, 25 Runs, 2 SB. Not bad for a guy that did not have a starting job at the beginning of the season. Looking at his minor league numbers, he has got some pop and some wheels to boot. His best minor league year (2006) he hit a combined 24 HR, hitting above .300 along the way. I am thinking the Rays will have to make a decision of what they want to do with Brignac, Rodriguez, and Bartlett. Maybe one of them will be moved in the off season?

Matt Wieters
Out of all the big league young catchers, this one has had the most hype attached to his name. Big numbers were expected out of Wieters coming out of the gate this year, and despite starting off pretty well this year, his production has really fallen off. Currently nursing an injury on the DL, I suspect a better 2nd half out of Wieters this year, and hopefully will carry into 2011, as the O's starting catcher.

Sean Rodriguez
Another middle infielder from the Rays, Rodriguez has more potential than Brignac. He, like Brignac has put of decent numbers, but not to the potential that he is capable of. 2011 could bring big things from Rodriguez on the Rays. Of course, with Bartlett taking up another middle infield spot, it could mean less playing time for Rodriguez. Keep an eye on the Rays off-season activity, and see what their plans for Rodriguez are for next season.

Who's Cold

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 05:20:00 +0000

Jay Bruce
Ouch, Jay has had his struggles lately, hitting .111 in his last 7 games, with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, 1 R. OUCH! On the season, Bruce is hitting .263, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 50 Runs, 5 SB. Not bad numbers, but lower than what I expected for Bruce at the all-star break. Watching Bruce this year, he could go on a hot streak, and get his numbers back to a more respectable value. Looking at his first two seasons in the bigs, Jay did not hit for a high average, but had respectable home run totals. Looking at his minor league numbers, he does look capable of hitting for a higher average.

I say hold on Bruce for now. His trade value is too low to get good return on him, and he has too much potential to outright drop.

Ty Wigginton
I guess it was to be expected. This guy came out on fire in the first part of the season, and was on pace to have his best offensive season yet. When the season began, there didn't seem to be a spot for him on the field. With his barrage of hitting in the early part of the season, the O's ensured he was in the lineup regularly. His multi-position eligibility definitely helps here. There are talks that the O's are shopping around Wiggy now, and he could go to a team that does not have a regular spot for him in their lineup (like the Yankees), so he could see potential pine. He is starting to pick it up a tad as of late, but not like he was mashing earlier. My advice would be to sell now, before he gets traded, while he still has value.

Who's Hot

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 19:15:00 +0000

Who's Hot

Carlos Quentin
Carlos started off the year a little slow, but he has picked it up as of late, hitting .450 in his last 7 games, with 6 HR and 13 RBI. Although there is some concern with the recent injury to his wrist. He is definitely on fire, and is a must start in your league. Because he is hitting just .242 however, there might be owners out there who may be willing to deal. Test the waters and send them a message.

Josh Hamilton

June and July have been monster months for Hamilton. This guy is mashing the ball, and deserves to be starting in your lineup at all times. He is a potential Triple Crown threat (Avg, HR, RBI). Josh hit .454 in June, and is hitting .400 in July. For an extra read, take a look at Buster's Olney column regarding Hamilton's dominance as of late.

Aaron Hill - Buy Low Candidate or Bust?

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 22:49:00 +0000

Aaron Hill is having a horrible year. Coming off his best offensive year in 2009, hitting 36HR and 108RBI, he is struggling even getting to Mendoza line (.200)

Let's take a closer look into the numbers.

2010
LD%: 9.2%
BABIP: .180
Ouch! Those numbers are horrible. A 9.2 LD% just is not going to get it done. It makes sense that his batting average is below .200 with those numbers.

Looking into some more numbers:
Fly Ball Percentage: 53.3%
HR/FB%: 9.4%

Aaron's flyball percentage is far too high. It looks like he is really trying to duplicate last year's lofty home run totals.

Verdict: Stay away from Aaron Hill. If you have him, either drop him, or sit him on your bench with hopes that he starts to turn it around. Do not pick him up on waivers or trade for him.

Line Drive Rates and BABIP

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 06:37:00 +0000

I am a big fan of reviewing line drive percentage and babip. If you are not familiar with what I am referring to:
- Line Drive Percentage is the percentage in which the hitter hits a line drive. A good line drive rate would be 19% or above. Exceptional would be over 20%
- BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play, is the average a hitter has when the ball is put in play. This does not count strikeouts or home runs. On average a hitter's BABIP is around .300.

By using the above two statistics, I can tell when a hitter is lucky or unlucky for the most part. For example, if a hitter has a high line drive percentage (ex: 21%), but has a very low BABIP (ex: .220), the hitter is probably getting unlucky. (I also take into account strikeout rates). A hitter in this situation probably has a low average. I would usually want to look into trading low for a player like this.

On the flipside, if a hitter has a low line drive percentage (ex: 13%), but a very high BABIP (ex: .370), chances are this hitter is getting lucky. I would usually want to consider selling high on a player like this.

One recent instance where I used BABIP and line drive percentage in a trade was for Curtis Granderson. Granderson has historically had good ld% numbers:
- 2006 - 22.2 %
- 2007 - 21.0 %
- 2008 - 19.1 %
- 2009 - 21.2 %
- 2010 - 25.7 %

If you take a look at Granderson's BABIP, it is sitting at a lower rate of .280. I am thinking with the combination of this LD% and BABIP, he should be hitting at a higher average of what he is currently hitting. (.240 as of July 16, 2010). I made the trade to obtain him.

The Amazing Stephen Strasburg

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 05:21:00 +0000

Stephen Strasburg. Everyone, at least in baseball fantasy circles should know this name by now. His professional career up to this point has been nothing short of phenomenal.

2010 Statistics

AA: 22IP, 13Hits, 6BB, 27K

AAA: 33.1IP, 18Hits, 7BB, 38K

MLB: 42.2IP, 32Hits, 11BB, 61K

Um, this guy is good, really good. He is the most hyped prospect in major league baseball since... well, I don't even know now, I can't recall this amount of hype for a long time.

In regards to fantasy, you definitely could get a top player right now for Strasburg. It has been documented that his innings will be watched extremely closely, and will actually be capped at 160. So, I would say either keep Strasburg on your roster and enjoy the dominant performances every 5th day, or sell high on him now, and get a proven top of the line fantasy player for him right now.

Gordon Beckham Busting Out?

noreply@blogger.com (Troy) — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 05:14:00 +0000

Is Gordon Beckham finally turning it around? The 2009 Rookie Of The Year just belted his 4th homer of the year tonight in Minnesota and is hitting .310 with two homers over his last 13 games.

I had high hopes for Beckham when I drafted him this year, thinking he could build on his .270 avg, 14 homers, and 63 RBI. Not to mention those 7 stolen bases.

Looking at Beckham's minor league numbers, he does not have a lot of experience down at the farm, however hit well nonetheless, hitting .299 and .464 in AA and AAA respectively in 2009.

I feel like the 2nd half of 2010 will start to bring the numbers we were all expecting to see at the start of 2010 for Beckham.