Fantasy Baseball Strategy

New Website

2009-01-03T00:38:00.001-05:00

Thank you to everyone who has been following my work so far. In order to have greater control of my content, I have moved to FantasyPitchFx.com. Here I will be implementing my blog in addition to two new tools soon, a DL tool and a Pitch Fx Tool. I am very excited about the new space and I hope everyone will check it out.

Keeper Analysis #12 - This Guy's Team

2008-10-07T08:44:00.003-04:00

See all the other analysis here and the grid alignment here.

For the final team's analysis, I need to preface it with the fact that this team is the league's whipping boy. He tends to say and do stupid things but he firmly believes that whatever he does will make his team better. So without further ado, what follows will be an interesting case.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Russ Martin (1) and Dan Haren (1). This does not eliminate Alex Rodriguez (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates no one since Martin is already eliminated.

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates no one.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is unknown or won't get the majority of the playing time. This eliminates no one.

Rule #5: Never keep a veteran on the decline. This eliminates Giles (16), Matsui (7), Damon (16), and Mussina (16).

This leaves us with

Hitters:
Alex Rodriguez (1)
Youkilis (16)
K. Johnson (5)
Keppinger (16)
Ellsbury (11)
Ludwick (16)
Byrd (16)
Votto (15)

Pitchers:
Chamberlain (12)
Matsuzaka (3)
Price (16)
Cueto (16)
Lohse (16)
Marcum (16)
W. Rodriguez (16)

Right off the bat we can eliminate Marcum (16) because he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. We can also eliminate Matsuzaka (3) because even though he will give you wins, his WHIP is way too high and his ERA is largely based on luck right now.

I would next eliminate Chamberlain (12) because I'm not 100% sure he's going to be a starter. I think there is a good chance he could end up staying in the pen which would severely limit his value this year for fantasy purposes.

So that leaves us with a bunch of guys who are round 16. In situations such as this, I tend to take the most talented pitcher because pitchers are so variable anyways. I think this is clearly Price and so that's who I would keep out of the pitchers.

Hitters:

I think we can automatically eliminate Kelly Johnson at 5. He's been a bit of a disappointment and is way too high at round 5. I think you can easily pick him up near round 9-10 at least. Out of the group of hitters at round 16, I think Youkilis is the most talented and the most likely to give you great return. That leaves us with:

AROD (1)
Youkilis (16)
Ellsbury (11)
Votto (15)

I think we can eliminate Votto (15) because at that range Youkilis is better at that spot. So I think it comes down to ARod (1), Youkilis (16), and Ellsbury (11). Ellsbury, even though he steals bases left and right, simply does not help out in the other areas enough to warrent being a keeper. His OBP, RBIs, and TBs simply are not high enough compared to Youk and ARod.

With everything considered I would keep Youk (16) over ARod at (1). Yes ARod may have another season like he did a couple of years ago, but if Youk gives you even 75% of what ARod does, he will be a steal at 16.

Summary: Youkilis (16) and Price (15).

Buy Low/ Sell High Summary

2008-10-02T16:03:00.000-04:00

Well here it is finally playoff time and I wanted to look at how I did at the end of the year. I created a spreadsheet here for everyone to see and compare different scenarios.

Looking at everything, I did win basically every category that the player can control. FIP - ERA for pitchers have a swing of close to 4 tenths of a point in ERA. The WHIP is better by close to .06 and more than 1K/9 better in the buy group. My pitchers also gave up less HR and had a higher average gamescore.

The hitters have a slightly worse HR/AB but everything else is better even nominally so.

Looking back on things, I realized I made three mistakes in my evaluations even though I have come out on top.

The superstars that I recommended had it in them to do that for that period of time. For instance, Berkman and Uggla with their power for the month or so after I suggested them. Yes their HRs did decrease over the second half, especially near the end.
I focused too much on benchmarks focusing on a batters eye (HR/FB to some extent, P/PA, and BB/SO) instead of focusing on metrics that focus on the skill of swinging the bat/throwing the ball and compare that to the league average (expected BABIP to BABIP, EQA, k%, LD/GB/FB rates, #"No doubt" and "Plenty" HR according to Hittrackeronline.com).
I put too much emphasis on general trend (downward trending of Gb/FB for instance) over the years instead of looking at the other metrics showing that he's turned the corner (such as a concurrent increase in K%).

I'm going to look long and hard at this, because even though I was successful, it wasn't nearly to the extent that I wanted. In the off-season there are going to be many different articles and discussions with the other authors from RotoSavants.

Keeper Analysis #11 - The Great Giambino Mustache Ride

2008-10-01T00:01:00.005-04:00

See all of the previous analysis here and the grid here. This one will be somewhat special as it is the guy who just won the league (Troy).

Rule #1 : Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Howard (1), Dunn (1), and Beltran (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates McCann (4) and Iannetta (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates noone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is undefined and not going to get majority of playing time. This eliminates Masterson (16) and Broxton (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a veteran player in decline. This eliminates Maddux (16), Giambi (16), and Glaus (16).

That leaves us with:
Figgins (13)
Iwamura (16)
S. Drew (16)
McClouth (16)
Quentin (16)
Reynolds (16)

Kuo (16)
Volquez (16)
Guthrie (16)
Lackey (2)
Slowey (16)
Cain (6)
Soria (9)

I think right on talent alone we can eliminate Figgins (13), Iwamura (16), and Reynolds (16). Looking at the remainder of the group, all of them are 16th rounders. S. Drew (16) has an OPS+ of 111, McLouth (16) has an 124, and Quentin has an 149. Drew and McLouth both have seen about 1300 AB while Quentin has seen about 800ish but McLouth is the oldest of them at 26.

All of their HR/BIA isn't consistent and all of their BABIP are within the normal limits and fairly consistent with their past. Quentin has the highest GB% at 41.4%, Drew and McLouth have identical 34.2% GB%. McLouth has the best P/PA at 4.00 (and has increased each year), while Drew and Quentin have both decreased slightly from last year at 3.80 and 3.62.

In terms of contact, Quentin is slightly below average at 79%, Drew is average at 82%, and McLouth is the best at 88%. Quentin however has some question marks about the health of the wrist so that needs to be considered.

Based on this I choose McLouth. He has progressed the most, has the best GB%, highest P/PA, seen the most AB, and has an ever improving OPS+. While I no longer have questions about Quentins shoulder, I do have serious doubts about his wrist and the effect it will have on his power next year. Drew seems to be average or less in this group.

For the pitchers, I think we can eliminate Lackey (2), Cain (6), Soria (9), and Kuo (16) as either costing too high or the talent isn't on par with everyone else. So we're left with Volquez, Guthrie, and Slowey, all 16th rounders.

To start with, Volquez has an ERA+ of 140, Guthrie has a 122, and Slowey owns a 105. Neutralized according to baseball-reference.com shows Volquez to have a 2.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.259. Guthrie has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP while Slowey owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.112 WHIP.

Volquez also owns the best in play % where the lower is better and his is at 15.7% and has improved each of the last 3 years. Guthrie and Slowey are both around 20% and thus they are more reliant on their defense and luck.

Volquez also has the highest GB % at 46% over Guthrie and Slowey's at 43% and 34% respectively. Everyone's BABIP is in line with their norms. K% also goes to Volquez at 23% where the norm is 16%. Guthrie is at 15% and Slowey is at 18%.

BB% goes to Slowey at 3.68% where the norm is 8%. Guthrie is at 7% while Volquez is 11%.

Finally directly from Statcorner.com

SwStr% (SP: 7.8%, RP: 9.5%)The percentage of pitches thrown that are swung on and missed. These have a direct linear relationship with a pitcher's strikeout rate and are often a good leading variable for how a pitcher will perform in the future.

Volquez is at 10.9% and has increased each of the last 3 years. Guthrie is at 7.6% and Slowey is at 8.7%

With all that, I would recommend Volquez at 16. The one concern everyone has is his walks. I strongly think that his other categories more than make up for the increased walks, especially when the BABIP is within normal limits. If he was in Dice-K mode and walking everyone in sight but not giving up runs, then I'd be worried. Guthrie I think is in the middle of the road and Slowey may end up being a Maddux type in the future but right now you have to go with Volquez who is above many of the metrics I see.

Summary: I recommend keeping McLouth (16) and Volquez (15).

Keeper Analysis #10 - The Franchise

2008-09-28T12:54:00.003-04:00

See all previous analysis here and see the grid here.

Even though I already know who he's going to keep, I'm going to run through everything as usual.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. That eliminates Miguel Cabrera (1), Jose Reyes (1), and Vlad (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. That eliminates Soto (9).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. That eliminates Rodriguez (5). Especially now that he set the record and will be overpriced next year.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and guaranteed playing time. That eliminates Weeks (4), Ziegler (16), and Lannan (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Lee (2), Delgado - another renaissance man (15), and Swisher (2).

That leaves us with

Hitters:
Sizemore (9)
Pence (13)
LaPorta (16)
Tulowitzki (2)

I think it's pretty obvious who he's going to keep. Sizemore at round 9 is an absolute steal as he's going to provide first round talent for years to come.

Keep Sizemore (9)

Pitchers:
M Parra (16)
T Lincecum (12)
C Zambrano (2)
G Meche (16)
G Smith (16)
J Weaver (9)
J.R. Johnson (16)

We can eliminate Zambrano (2) because it's way too high. Based on talent level we can eliminate Meche (16 and not good enough), Smith (16 and not good enough yet), and J.R. Johnson (16).

So based on Parra (16), Lincecum (12), and Weaver (9) who would everyone choose. That's correct Lincecum at 12 is another amazing pick for him and this could easily set up this owner for several years to come.

Summary: Sizemore (9) and Lincecum (12)

Keeper Analysis #9 - The Benchwarmers

2008-09-25T09:57:00.004-04:00

Check out all my previous analysis here and then the round cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Morneau (1), David Wright (1), and Carlos Lee (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Mauer (5).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates no one.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and guaranteed majority of playing time. This eliminates no one.

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Orlando Cabrera (16), Miguel Tejada (10), Randy Johnson (13).

Unfortunately this doesn't eliminate a lot of people but this is what we're left with.

Hitters:

Pedroia (12)
A. Hill (16)
B. Hall (16)
Milledge (15)
Kemp (6)
Wells (4)
Fukudome (8)
Taveres (16)
Adrian Gonzalez (9)

Pitchers

Harang (3)
Garza (16)
Chris R Young (2)
Duchscherer (16)
Davies (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

For the hitters I think it's safe to assume that we can eliminate Kemp (6), Wells (4), Fukudome (8), B. Hall (16), Taveras (16), and A. Hill (16) as their cost is too high or the talent level isn't on par with the rest. So that leaves us with:

Pedroia (12)
Milledge (15)
Adrian Gonzalez (9)

Milledge (15) has the above average talent but he only has given you average production so far. Also he plays for the Nationals so his RBIs and Rs will be hard to come by. So because of this I eliminate Milledge (15).

That leaves us with Pedroia (12) and Gonzalez (9). Both have had breakout seasons and both would be very good value where they are drafted. Pedroia's wOBA+ is 112 vs. Gonzalez's 113. Dustin's OPS+ is 124 while Adrian is 136. Pedroia's BABIP is .325 while Adrian's is .310 so both have enjoyed slightly higher than normal "luck".

One difference though is the trending of LD% which to me shows a different approach at the plate. Pedroia's has decreased each of the last 3 years while increased his FB% indicating to me that he's trying to hit more HR and use the wall in left field more often. Adrian has mostly maintained his LD% throughout the time meaning his success isn't a fluke. Adrian's HR/BIA is much better at 13.4% and has increased each of the last several years. Dustin's, despite having a phenomenal season, only has a 5% HR/BIA.

Plate discipline is almost important to me. I need to see whether or not a player is making progress at recognizing pitches and determining whether or not they can hit the ball hard. Dustin's overall % of pitches taken hasn't moved much in the last couple of years. Adrian's though has increased each of his years in the league and is now up to 53.8%. The key though is whether or not they were good pitches to take or bad ones.

Dustin's % of pitches taken that were balls has increased each year to a present 65.8% while his % pitches taken that were strikes has decreased to 34.2%. So even though he's not taking an overall greater # of pitches, he's recognizing them better and is producing more as well. Adrian's % of pitches taken for balls has really stabilized the last 3 years roughly around 74% as has his % of pitches taken for strikes around 26%.

So what we have are two players who have produced at a high level this year. One is a tiny second basemen and one is a big first basemen. One is improving his plate discipline while one is keeping his excellent level up.

So I think this comes down to the position they play. Dustin Pedroia has the highest VORP (62.1) of any 2B this year and does it in a position in which there are really only 4-5 good players. The drop off after this is large and you'd be stuck with roughly an average or slightly above average player. Adrian's VORP of 43.0 is top 10 of the 1B but it's still nowhere nears Pedroia's. It's also at a position where while those numbers are great, they don't stand out as much from other players at his position.

For this I eliminate Gonzalez (9) and keep Pedroia (12).

Pitchers:

We start out with this:
Harang (3)
Garza (16)
Chris R Young (2)
Duchscherer (16)
Davies (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

I think we can safely eliminate Harang (3) and Chris R Young (2). These guys simply cost too high for their round cost. I think based on talent we can eliminate Davies (16). I also think that we can eliminate Duchscherer (16) based on his arthritic or pre-arthritic hip condition.

That leaves us with:
Garza (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

All of them have been good pitchers this year and Harden has been simply amazing this year. All of them are young with Harden being the oldest at 26.

Garza has the highest GB% at 41.8% while Harden has the lowest at 28.6%.
Harden has the highest K% at 30% while Garza has the lowest at 16%.
Garza also has the best BB% at 7.60% and Sanchez has worst at 10.79%.
Harden has the best HR/BIA at around 4.5% while Garza has the worst at 5.66% although his has steadily decreased and could be below 5.3% next year.
Harden has the best ERA+ at 210 while Sanchez has the worst at 86.

So I think with all of this I think we can immediately eliminate Sanchez (16). Now I think we need to bring in the health question of Harden. There has never been a question about his talent only his ability to stay healthy. Harden has a long list of injuries which has limited his effectiveness so far. Even with that I think we should choose Harden (15) here.

He is so talented while healthy that he is worth the risk at round 15. You could have an absolute steal here. He could help you dominate the league in K 's, ERA, and WHIP.

Summary: Pedroia (12) and Harden (15)

Keeper Analysis #8 - Operation Must Not Fail

2008-09-23T16:15:00.000-04:00

Here's my latest analysis. For reference review the previous analysis and also the round cost.

Rule # 1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Alfonso Soriano (1) and Jake Peavy (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates B. Inge (16) and R. Hernandez (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This doesn't eliminate anyone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and with regular playing time. This eliminates Stewart (16), Barmes (16), Span (16), and Wheeler (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a player who is a declining veteran. This eliminates Dye (6), Ibanez (9), and Hoffman (8).

That leaves us with:

Hitters:

Atkins (2),
Adam LaRoche (16),
Uggla (4),
Alexei Ramirez (16)
Ankiel (7),

Pitchers:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Galaragga (16)
Volstad (16)
Eveland (16)
Carmona (13)
Shields (6)
Marquis (16)
Dempster (16)
Wood (16)

I set up another spreadsheet to follow along easier.For the hitters, I think we can all agree that of the group we should eliminate Atkins (2) and Adam LaRoche (16). So now we should discuss Uggla, Alexei Ramirez, and Ankiel. Based on wOBA+ alone, I think we can eliminate Ramirez (16).

So we have Uggla (4) versus Ankiel (7). While Uggla has a improving P/PA and HR/BIA he's not really improving his plate discipline. This is where Ankiel has the advantage. Ankiel is already producing similar power numbers but he's improving his plate discipline as measured by TkB% and TKS%. Also Ankiel is improving both his FB% and LD% unlike Uggla who's decreasing his LD%. So what we see with Uggla is when he hits the ball, he hits a HR. Ankiel appears to actually be a more complete hitter at this time and that's why I'm keeping Ankiel at 7. If I had Uggla in a similar round, I'd give him more thought but I feel that when you draft a hitter in the 4th round he needs to be more of a complete hitter.

We have a lot of pitchers on that list. I think out of the list we can eliminate Marquis, Dempster, Galarraga, Volstad, and Eveland right away. I know that Dempster has had an amazing season but he has come out of nowhere and I have concerns about his workload. So that leaves us with:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Carmona (13)
Shields (6)
Wood (16)

I think we should eliminate Shields because you can probably redraft him there next year in round 6. That leaves us with:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Carmona (13)
Wood (16)

I don't really like anything at first glance that says that I need to take him. Wood at 16 with all of the potential saves is very interesting but given his injury history and the fact that you can easily find saves each year late, I'm eliminating Wood (16).

Saunders BABIP is a little below .270 which is slightly low, everyone else's is in the normal range. One of the things I really look for is the GB% and the HR/BIA. Carmona is much better at this than either of them and that looks like he's got a leg up. Saunders K% has decreased each of the last couple years while his walk rate remained the same roughly so I'll eliminate Saunders (16)

Cliff Lee versus Carmona. Honestly it shouldn't have even come to this. The owner should have traded Lee during the height of his streak or at least immediately afterwards and be able to get a great younger keeper. Instead you have polar opposites to choose from. Do you keep Lee who easily could have just had his career year or do you choose Carmona who seemed to have stumbled a bit since the end of the year.

I would choose Carmona (13). Lee's meteoric rise from last year to this year is too suspicious to me and he's easily going to be regressing next year. Many people may easily think about this so you may be able to pick him up around round 10 if you feel really good about him next year. Carmona though has better GB%, LD%, FB%, and BABIP. I think he'll be much better physically next year which should only help his numbers more.

Summary: Ankiel (7) and Carmona (13)

Keeper Analysis #7 - Niko's Other Cousin

2008-09-22T09:14:00.006-04:00

See all my previous analysis here and the grid here.

Rule #1: Never keep 1st rounders. This eliminates V. Martinez (1), Rollins (1), and Crawford (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Navarro (16) and Molina (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This doesn't eliminate anyone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and get the majority of playing time. This eliminates Hinske (16), Blake (16), Ethier (16), Scott (16), Church (16), Byrd (16), and Torres (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Hunter (4) and Gregg (13).

Leaves us with:

Hitters:
B.J. Upton (13)
A. Gordon (5)
A. Lind (16)
C.B. Young (11)

Pitchers:
Wainwright (9)
Looper (16)
Billingsley (13)
Floyd (16)
Nolasco (16)
Halladay (6)
B. Wilson (10)

Based on performance alone, I think we can only eliminate A. Gordon (5) off the bat. Everything thing else we'll have to evaluate so this will be a little more in depth than others. For the hitters, I have 2 Charts. Rather than list them out here, I put them in a google spreadsheet that everyone can see.

Looking in the first chart (Niko Event), there's nothing really that jumps out at me. Upton's numbers are down this year because of the shoulder injury and he is the only one above average in terms of wOBA+. The other thing I like about Upton is his LD% which fueled his BABIP.

The second chart (Nike hitter pitch) gives us much better information about whether or not a player is progressing as a hitter. Upton is the only one that is making significant progress in terms of plate discipline. The percentage of pitches taken that were strikes is down 7% from his rookie year while Lind's tkS% actually increased. C.B. Young's TkS% decreased as well but only by 2-3%. TkB% (pitches taken that were balls) appropriately increased for Upton and Young but decreased for Lind. To me this shows that Upton has made significant strides towards his plate discipline. Also, the overall # pitches per plate appearance is over 4 for Upton while a shade under 4 for Young and significantly under for Lind.

Because of this, I will eliminate Young (11) and Lind (16). I'm eliminating Young because he has a higher round value than Upton even though they will likely be similar.

For pitchers, there are a lot of options. Looking at tRA+ (similar to ERA+), we can eliminate Looper (16) and Floyd (16) as both are under 100 (an average pitcher). I think we can eliminate Wainwright (9) due to a combination of injuries and round. For the same reason, I think we can eliminate Halladay. Keeping him at round 6 would be handicapping yourself and buying into the notion that he will have just as good a year as this year. I can't see that happening as he declined in the previous 2 years. So I eliminate Halladay (6).

That leaves us with Nolasco (16), Billingsley (13), and Wilson (10). Of those, I think Billingsley clearly has the best numbers. He has the highest GB% of the three and the highest K% of the 3. He also gives up the lowest HR/BIA. Given those I normally would keep Billingsley (13) but you can't keep two players in the same round, so I choose to keep Nolasco.

Summary: Keep Upton (13) and Nolasco (16).

Keeper Analysis #6 - My Team Sucks

2008-09-20T19:15:00.006-04:00

Our 6th installment is one that's going to make our decisions fairly difficult. To see all of the other ones check here while seeing the round cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a player in the first round. This one hurts me but it eliminates Hanley Ramirez (1), Fielder (1), and Hamels (1). The one that hurts is Hanley. He gives such and incredible blend of power and speed that it is scary. The one knock on him is that his scoring and RBI opportunities may not be there. Even in his amazing run of two years driven in an average of about 70 RBIs.

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Shoppach (16) even though he's had a good year. Catchers never play every game and if they do they'll wear down at the end.

Rule #3: Never keep a closer if he'll cost you more than a 5th round pick. This eliminates Putz (4).

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. This eliminates Polanco (16), Hawpe (3), Baldelli (11), Jackson (16), and C. Perez (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Willingham (13).

That leaves us with:

Hitters:

Hanley Ramirez (1)
Cano (5)
Rowand (10)
Cruz (16)
Headley (16)

Pitchers:

Maine (13)
Pelfrey (16)
Kazmir (2)

Let's look at the Hitters first. After this season I think it's safe to say that Cano and Rowand are not really keeper material. So do you want to go with youth or experience. I say you'd keep Hanley Ramirez and this is why. This is from Statcorner.com

Year	PA	wOBA	wOBA*	lgwOBA	wOBA+
2005	2	0.000	0.000	0.339	0
2006	700	0.371	0.372	0.338	110
2007	706	0.407	0.410	0.332	123
2008	668	0.407	0.409	0.327	125

Year	Ptc	TkB%	TkS%
2005	11	50.0%	50.0%
2006	2804	65.6%	34.4%
2007	2565	68.7%	31.3%
2008	2766	70.5%	29.5%

The wOBA+ is fairly straightforward and that is the OBA compared to the rest of the league. Statcorner uses it to compare a player to everyone else. You can see he has improved each of the last 3 years. Currently Headley is a little bit over 100 while Cruz's is in the low 130s but only over 97 PA. To me the biggest thing about Ramirez is looking at the second group of numbers. Each of the last 3 years he has improved his pitch selection. TkB% is the percentage of pitches taken that were balls and has risen steadily. TkS% is therefore the percentage of pitches taken that were strikes has dropped steadily. He's improving his pitch selection and starting to finally take walks and progress as a hitter. I expect a monster season from him next year.

Thus, I keep Hanley (1).

Pitching similarly really isn't that different. Kazmir is a good pitcher but he is not worth a 2nd round pick, at least in our league. He's likely a #mid 3-4 round pick in my opinion based on his late season inconsistency.

John Maine (13) versus Mike Pelfrey (16). Going back to Statcorner.com, tRa+ measures a pitchers effectiveness. "tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher's control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment." tRa+ is therefore the difference when compared to others in the league. Maine has a tRa+ of 100 meaning he's exactly league average while Pelfrey is 110.

Another metric is the BB%. Maine's has increased in each of the last 3 years (8.86, 9.26, 11.02%) while Pelfrey's has actually decreased in each of the last 3 years (12.12, 11.15, 7.63%) Pelfrey's BABIP is also a more realistic .302 while Maine's is .266. Pelfrey has a much better GB rate than Maine by 10% and finally the real kicker to me is that Pelfrey has a much better HR%/BIA (ball in air) 3.65% to 6.56% .

Because of all of that, I eliminate Maine and would keep Pelfrey (16). Maine does give a better K% but you can make that up in other places.

Summary: Hanley (1) and Pelfrey (16).

Keeper Analysis #5 - "I Suck"

2008-09-18T23:38:00.002-04:00

You can see the first four here, here, here, and here. You can see what the value would cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder, unless Utley and Rodriguez. I need to amend that slightly in this case because he could keep Pujols in the 1st round but I would only do it if he's drafting near the end of the first round. For now, I'm ruling Pujols out though because we don't know where he's going to draft and there is the risk of Pujols getting the surgery. This eliminates Pujols (1), Rios (1), and verlander (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a closer if he costs more than a 5th rounder. He does have Papelbon and it would only cost a 6th rounder so he looks like a very promising choice to keep.

Rule #3: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates C. Snyder (13) and Ivan Rodriguez (16).

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. That maybe eliminates Blalock (16), D. Young (16) and Wigginton (16).

Rule # 5: Never keep a declining veteran. That eliminates Thome (7), Huff despite a career year (16), Cantu (16), Winn (16), Guzman (16), and Oswalt (4).

That leaves us with:

Hitters
C Kotchman (16)
H Kendrick (8)
R Zimmerman (3)
B Harris (16)
M Ordonez (4)
D Murphy (16)
E Dukes (16)
F Lewis (16)

Pitching:
J Blanton (12)
J Jurrjens (16)
C Ray (16)
J Papelbon (6)

For the pitching side, I think the clear cut winner is Papelbon at 6. In this league closers start to go at the very end of round 4 and early round 5 so we're not getting a huge advantage value-wise but knowing you have those 40 Saves in the bank is very comforting. Also the other options simply are not that good in my eyes.

For the hitters, this is difficult simply because it's so full of crap. Zimmerman at 3 is way to high so we can eliminate him. Ordonez looks to have taken a step back in terms of his power and in round 4 I'd want either a high power guy or someone who goes 20/20 for me. Ordonez doesn't run so he's eliminated. Fred Lewis is barely above average and doesn't project to be a superstar/keeper level so he is eliminated. Brenden Harris isn't anything special and may not be above average at all so he's eliminated. Dukes can't stay healthy and you also can't predict when he's going to explode so he's eliminated. Kotchman has been an average hitter for the last several years and out of your 1st baseman, especially your keeper 1st baseman, you want Ryan Howard/Pujols kind of numbers. Kotchman is now eliminated.

So that leaves us with David Murphy (16) and Howie Kendrick (8). Kendrick is appealing because he has the talent to win multiple batting titles. His problem is that he's having trouble staying healthy. Murphy's problem has been the slow development of his bat but he seems to have turned it around. Murphy will give you a 20/10 which is especially valuable and that's if he doesn't improve from this year to the next. Kendrick offers you high average with some speed. Which do you choose?

I chose David Murphy at 16. To me you never want to really gamble on someone in the single digits. There is a very good chance you could have Kendrick at 8 again if you really like him but there's s good possibility Murphy won't be around at 16. I think you can expect a similar year to Murphy's year right now with the potential to add a few on each of the counting stats.

Summary: Murphy (16) and Papelbon (6)

ER Recruiter addendum

2008-09-17T10:00:00.000-04:00

I feel ashamed for not even remembering this guy was on my team but I completely forgot about Max Scherzer (16).

This completely changes the dynamic of my pitching keeper. I think Liriano will be much better than in the past now that he's almost completely back from Tommy John surgery, but I was always a little hesitant to use a 6th rounder on him. I think that there is a good chance I can draft him again around there unless Troy and Lee screw me over. Because his numbers were so awful when he first came back, it skews his overall numbers for the year so there is a good chance you can draft him there too.

Scherzer will be a 16th rounder. He strikes guys out by the ton and he has some of the best stuff of any young pitcher in the game. In 45 innings this year he has struck out an amazing 54 hitters while only walking 18. His BABIP is higher than what it should be and that could normalize.

So now I'm really left with Liriano at 6 or Scherzer at 16. Right now as of this minute, I'm now leaning towards Scherzer at 16.

Keeper Analysis # 4 (I Spit Hot Fire)

2008-09-16T08:15:00.002-04:00

Looks like my choice of Longoria over Hamilton touched off a few differences of opinion. To review, my previous analysis is here, here, and here.

Everyone's cost is here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. That eliminates Berkman (1), Ramirez (1), and Holliday (1).

Rule #2 Never keep a closer. That eliminates Marmol (16) and Rauch (16).

Rule #3 Never keep a catcher. That eliminates Napoli (13) and Varitek (16).

Rule #4 Never keep a player whose role is not known. That eliminates Lowrie (16) and Edwin Encarnacion (16).

Rule #5 Never keep a declining veteran. That eliminates Frank Thomas (16), Ted Lilly (12), Khalil Greene (11), Randy Wolf (16), and E.

Byrnes (2).

That leaves a pretty thin crop.

Hitters:

B. Phillips (8)

M. Aviles (16)

J. Bay (5)

P. Burrell (7)

X. Nady (16)

Pitchers:

AJ Burnett (8)

J. Beckett (3)

D. Rasner (16)

God I'm glad I don't own this team. Just my quick general opinion is that you'd keep Phillips at 8 and hope for a rebound. Aviles could end up being the best value at 16 but there's simply too much uncertainty in his future performance. Add in the fact that he plays for the Royals and he won't exactly be driving in a ton or scoring a lot.

Jason Bay at 5 is too high and you could easily draft him there anyways. Finally I just don't think that Nady is that great a hitter.

Let's let the numbers decide though.

To start off with I decided to do a quick OPS+ comparison for the hitters. B. Phillips averaged under 100 over the last 3 years, while Aviles has an OPS+ of 113 this year. Jason Bay has posted an average of over 130 while Burrell has averaged in the low 120s. Finally Nady is having a 130+ season but previously never got above 110. Immediately I see that keeping Phillips at 8 would be a mistake. I would much rather have Burrell or Bay rather than Phillips or Aviles. I would eliminate Aviles (16), Phillips (8), and Nady (16).

So now we have Bay (5) versus Burrell (7). Bay has made improved contact the last couple years while Burrell's is declining. Burrell's LD % is declining each of the last 3 years while Bay's have remained constant. wOBA+ is about the same for each of them. Bay has speed while Burrell doesn't. For me, that's the difference. I firmly believe that you should draft many players that can get you 15 SB rather than 1 guy with 60SB and nothing else. Bay at 5 is my keeper.

For pitchers I think its straightforward who you would keep if you absolutely had to keep one, AJ Burnett at 8. The problem is that you should probably keep Phillips there. I don't think you should keep Beckett at 3 as you could probably be able to redraft him there unless you have some psycho Red Sox fans. And Rasner is too much of an unknown in order to be kept. So guess what, for the first and probably the last I recommend not keeping any pitcher.

Summary: Bay (5) and no pitcher