Fantasy Baseball Through The Eyes of a Gaijin

Sell Alfonso

2010-05-04T20:02:00.002-04:00

Since April 21, Soriano has lit up pitchers in the NL. Finally, owners who invested in him, not sure why, should find a way to sell him and grab someone who will last the entire year. I don't see Soriano being a long term keeper in fantasy anymore. He's getting older and to simply put it, he's in decline.

With this brand name appeal and his huge numbers (as of late), there will always be one guy in your league that will pounce at the opportunity to deal for him.

Hot Hand

2010-04-25T01:56:00.002-04:00

Barry Zito - 3-0, 1.32ERA, 0.84WHIP, and a 19:8 K:BB rate. Not a bad pitcher to pick up for a few starts and ride his hot hand. Once he starts to fall apart, drop him and find another hot pitcher or try and deal him.

Bullish on ERA

2009-04-21T07:36:00.002-04:00

Chien Ming Wang - Owners, it is still early in the season and you shouldn't panic with Wang. Just because he's throwing batting practice during games doesn't mean he isn't worth something to fantasy owners. At this point, keep him on your bench. Have him pitch a few more times and see where he's at. You likely grabbed him relatively cheap on draft day so see where he is in two starts. Remember he is being skipped when they face the Red Sox.

Lyle Overbay - Jays seem to be hitting and Overbay is a guy usually overlooked in fantasy. Currently on a 4 game hitting streak which includes 2HRs and 7RBIs. Usually a pretty streaky hitter. Also, a great candidate to fill your roster on the "off days", which are Monday and Thursday.

Melky Cabrera - He was a starter but with his terrible play he was relegated to the bench this season. With injuries to the Yanks OF, Melky will see more at-bats. So far, he's producing when he has had the chance. Keep an eye out for him because with some motivation he could be a great find on the waiver wire as your 4th/5th OF'er.

Brian Barden - Guy is suppose to be a bench player and a candidate to be sent down to the minors but I guess he wants to be starter. With 3HRs so far, he's fighting to keep a spot on the Cardinals. Minor League history shows nothing special but with some motivation some players seem to excel.

Burnett worth it?

2009-04-15T08:53:00.002-04:00

AJ Burnett - This guy sure does know how to pitch, just as long as he's healthy and not on the DL. The guys who took a chance on AJ are cashing in big time so far in his two starts. I still don't see him lasting the whole season. His record shows that he's vulnerable to injury. I would ride his hot hand and see where it leads but if he does string together 5-8 quality starts, I wouldn't blame you if you decided to cash in for some guys that can help you in other roto stats.

Scott Downs - If you need a guy who can give you help in all your pitching stats, look no further than Downs.

Chris Carpenter - I love this guy but only problem is he seems to enjoy spending time on the DL. He has a strained ribcage and will most likely head to the DL. Owners, do not panic just yet. Make sure you wait until more info is released. This guy still has it, proven by his amazing performance in his first outing. Just too good to drop.

Andruw Jones - With all the money in the world for doing nothing but stinking it up on the field, it seems Jones has found his stroke. Ok, I shouldn't go that far since he's only appeared in two games. But in those two games he's posted a 5-8, 1HR, 4RBIs, and a 1-to-1 BB to K ratio. If you have room why not pick him up and stash him for a bit. The Rangers lineup is a place where someone could easily get some sweet pitches to hit.

Travis Hafner - Guy seems to have found a comfort zone. 3HRs and 6RBIs so far. Owners who took a chance are smiling. Only problem is he is UTIL only. Not a fan, unless he is hitting 30-100 for the year.

Starters=Volatility

2009-04-11T18:09:00.003-04:00

Cliff Lee - Again, this is why you should never waste a high draft pick on any pitcher, except Johan Santana. They are too volatile. They have too man ups and downs when it comes to performance and injury risk. Lee was lit up for 4ERs over 5IPed. If you were an owner who drafted Lee high because of his great CY Young year of 2008, I feel sorry for you.

Roy Halladay - On a positive note, Halladay came back from a rough first outing to get a win against the Indians. Owners who have Halladay should not worry and expect him to be another Cy Young contender this year. With Wells, Rios, Snider, and Lind swinging the bats, you might see Roy with a few more wins. Very scary!!!

BJ Ryan - Sticking with the Jays, the bullpen more specifically the closers role needs to be looked at. Ryan was torched for 3ERs over 0.1IPed. If you are a BJ owner, make sure to back him up with Scott Downs.

Hank Blalock - Two years of injuries seems to have given Hank some time to get back to raking. If Hank stays healthy he could be a sleeper in Texas this year. This guy has posted some great fantasy numbers in the past and if he continues stay healthy and hits behind Hamilton owners could see a 25/90 year from this once upon time fantasy staple.

Rocco Baldelli - For AL-Only, this guy should be on your roster. Seems to be healthy and swinging the bat and connecting.

Notes

2009-04-09T06:05:00.003-04:00

Emilio Bonifacio - Adds to his to steals total. Now has 4 steals for the young year. Steals is a category in fantasy and this guy is someone you should throw into you OF or UTIL spot. Ride the hot hand and see what it can give you.

Closers - I preach grabbing a solid closer or two in the draft early so you can make sure you don't have to worry about saves throughout the year. Here is my proof. What did the elite guys do when during the first couple of days. Check out Nathan, F-Rod, Papelbon, Lidge, and Broxton do? Exactly, if you didn't grab an elite closer or two, it'll come back and haunt you through hours of looking up saves and monitoring closers.

Jeter - Looks fine in the lead off position so far. Hope it continues. He even gave you a stolen base and a home run. Not too shabby.

Koji Uehara - Threw 5 innings against the Yanks and only allowed 1ER. Very solid start to his MLB career. This is a decent option for a 4th starter in mixed leagues. I'm not too high on him though. If he has a few good quality starts, try and find a Japanese loving fantasy owner and deal him off.

Brandon Lyon - If you have him as a closer well that sucks. Make sure to have Zumaya on your DL because he is going to return and be the closer. Lyon is terrible. Simple as that.

Panic

2009-04-07T06:56:00.003-04:00

Please do not panic if you had a 0-40 day with your hitters and a miserable day on the mound like Sabathia and Verlander. It's day one!!!

Opening Day

2009-04-07T06:46:00.003-04:00

Okay, officially it was on Sunday but I don't consider that opening day since there was only one game played.

The fantasy season is officially here and for most of us this day couldn't come sooner. Here are a few things I noticed on the first day. Oh yeah, hope all your drafts went smoothly.

CC Sabathia - Don't worry, do you remember his start to last season? Enough said.

Mets Bullpen - If you want to grab some Holds look no further than the Mets revamped bullpen. I believe these boys will give all the starters in the rotation a boost in wins. See if you can grab a few guys from their bullpen and also maybe one of their starters.

Aaron Harang - He ended up with a loss but overall I am very impressed with his stuff. Owners who drafted him late will get a nice return at years end. For guys who want to trade for him, why not. The guy who drafted him might just look at the loss and figure he's on the road for another terrible year.

Emilio Bonifacio - Guy had 3SB's. This might be a guy who turns into a Dave Roberts or Podsednik. If you have room, grab him and stash him on your bench to see if he can continue his stealing ways. Had 6SBs in 157 at-bats last year. Keeps it up for the entire year and that could turn into 30+ steals. Value!!!!

Cliff Lee - That is why I don't draft starters early. Had a great year last year and it seems he'll be back to his days as a normal starter in the bigs.

Justin Verlander - What is wrong with this guy. If I had him on my team I would sit him on the bench for a few starts until he straightens things out. Not droppable...not yet!!

Closers - Make sure to pay attention to the closer situations throughout the league. These are the guys that can make a difference in the standings.

Mike Jacobs

2009-03-21T20:13:00.003-04:00

Dude can hit. Spring training is treating him and the Marlins well. Mike Jacobs has 5HRs and 12RBIs so far and he's still under 30 years old. He's over the golden 27 but he still has the potential for a big season for owners. If you are in need of power than he might be it. You will have to suffer from a low average, .260's, and 100+Ks. What you will get is 25HRs/90-100RBIs. This guy is worth the draft pick, not early though.

Thoughts

2009-03-21T02:49:00.002-04:00

Joba Chamberlain - Spring training started off slowly for him but he seems to have found his groove. I am still not sold on him and would not take him in a draft until the mid-teens. Since the Yanks want to take it easy on this pitcher, don't expect him to throw more than 140-160 innings this year. Then comes the injury factor. Just not a pitcher I would waste a pick on early.

Manny - Well, he signed his contract and now he's going to be sitting and resting his sore hamstring. In most leagues, this slugger is going in the 4-5th rounds. Remember, he has an option to opt out of the contract at the end of the season so for fantasy owners this is great news...another contract year. More massive numbers on the horizon?

Robinson Cano - He has a sore shoulder but seems to be doing fine now. This 2B is going in drafts more for his name and his team than his true value. Keep an eye on his health. He has the potential for 15-20HRs while batting .320.

Cole Hamels - Dude is sore. I would watch this situation very carefully because the injury is with his elbow. Not something you want with a pitcher. Again, proves the point of drafting pitchers early, just don't do it!

Pudge - He's back in the bigs. He signed with the Astros and will be a decent catcher for the year. As long as he is healthy he should give you decent production from your catcher spot.

Mike Aviles - This guy is all about average. If he isn't hitting .320 he isn't giving you much. His WBC action, .200avg, just doesn't cut it for me. You heard it from me first, he's going to be a flop this year.

A-Rod Update

2009-03-09T07:53:00.002-04:00

He's out 6-9 weeks.

Ok, this is great news if he can stay healthy for the rest of the year because he is due for a second surgery at the end of the season. First surgery is just to hold him through until the second one.

Owners should stay away from A-Rod in the first round. There is too much at stake with a first round pick to give it to someone who might be out for the season. Remember, you can't win your league with your first pick but you can surely lose one!

Now you might ask, how far should I let him fall into someone grabs him off the board. It is all about risk and reward. I would most likely grab him in round 3. At this point in time I would have two strong bats and I can gamble a little with a 3rd bat. But again, this is all up to you and how much risk you want to take on.

A-Rod

2009-03-07T22:29:00.002-05:00

The whole situation with A-Rod is a little complicated. But if you want to look at it from a simple point of view think about it this way. A-Rod is a first 2 to 3 picks in any draft, there is no doubt about it. But now that there is a medical issue so how far will he drop. I would recommend not drafting him unless he drops to the late first round. Of course this is with the information we currently have on him. They have elected not to go with surgery and use the rest/treatment option. I had the wheel pick and A-Rod was on the board, as of today, I would draft him and make another solid hitter as my second round pick.

Simply put, draft him only if he drops into the late first round. In my eyes, he is not worth a spot in the top of the first round.

Manny

2009-03-05T07:46:00.004-05:00

The Manny situation is finally over. It was a pretty stupid few weeks where both sides tried to get their way. Anyways, back to the fantasy world. No matter where Manny goes he is going to hit and he's going to hit as a premium fantasy hitter. So, his signing doesn't change his fantasy status.

People who bat around him will benefit greatly from his amazing ability to hit. Players like Kemp, Ethier, Furcal, Martin, and maybe even Hudson will find some extra runs and a few better pitches to hit. The value of those guys increase. Make sure to keep those guys on your fantasy radars especially since drafts are quickly approaching.

Randoms

2009-03-01T04:45:00.003-05:00

Carl Pavano had a healthy 2 innings for the Indians and found a way not to land himself on the DL. This guy has the stuff still and if he ends up pitching 25-30 games this year you might have a gem on your hands. If you have a late round pick and you are kind of filled with most of your positions why not throw him a bone and see if he can do something with it. If he stinks it up out of the gate, just cut him loose. In my eyes, he's a half sleeper, not a full blown one but he's inching towards one as spring training continues.

Johan Santana has an ailing elbow. As I have always said, do not draft pitchers in early. They are too vulnerable. Make sure to keep an eye out for his health especially if your draft is fastly approaching.

Adrian Beltre will not be allowed to participate in the WBC for his home country of the Dominican Republic. Apparently, the Mariners have denied his chance because they say he is not 100% healthy. This is the walk year for Beltre, who never really lived up to this 5 year $64million contract he signed after his huge 2004 season. I am a firm believer in the walk year affect so I am planning on taking Beltre in the early double digit rounds. Even though he doesn't give the Gotti like numbers of 2004.

Chris Carpenter had a nice outing. With 19 pitches he made 6 outs. If he stays healthy throughout spring training this is a guy I am going to draft as my 4th pitcher in the late teens. He will most likely fall into the late rounds of most drafts because of injuries in the past few years. If he stays healthy he could easily be a complete STEAL!

Francisco Liriano is healthy and throwing the smoke he usually does. If he falls to the early teen rounds grab him but I wouldn't set him into my lineup as pick from the 5-10 rounds. Just not worth it.

Johan & Webb

2009-02-28T00:43:00.002-05:00

Both Johan and Webb complained of pain in their arms. Since this is spring training I would chalk it up to being normal pain that pitchers experience while getting ready for the regular season. I do wonder how long Santana can go without having some sort of arm problem. But make sure to keep an eye out on both of these guys are you head towards your draft day.

This is why I don't draft pitching in my leagues until the late single rounds. There will always be a Cliff Lee for every baseball season and it just isn't worth the pain and aggravation of having to watch your stud pitcher sit out.

Pitchers go to the DL for almost anything while hitters will play through the pain. Draft hitters early and often.

Vernon

2009-02-24T04:18:00.003-05:00

I guess the stretching didn't do what it was suppose to do, prevent injuries. Vernon is out for a month due to a hamstring issue. Fantasy owners who are drafting soon should take note of this and make sure you let him slide in the draft. Injuries like this usually seem to linger if not taken care of properly. Luckily this is the start of spring training and the Jays will give every opportunity possibility for him to heal and get back to 100%.

For owners who are drafting late in March make sure to keep an eye out for him. In my league I will be drafting late in March and I hope to grab him as my 3rd OF'er. Most likely won't happen but we'll see. Maybe the injury report will scare off a few people.

His ability to hit 30HRs and drive in 100RBIs while giving owners a .300AVG is something you can't help but giddy over. Also, if his legs are healthy he can throw in 5-10 steals...bonus!

2009-02-21T02:38:00.004-05:00

He's back!!! Ken Griffey Jr. is back with the Mariners and it seems he will finish his career in Seattle. Fantasy owners, this is a better fit than the Braves. He can just sit in the DH spot and hopefully stay healthy. Also, with less wear and tear Griffey might be able to go back to his 2007 numbers where he hit 30HRs and drove in 93 runs. I can see him being a low 20's HR and driving in 80+ runs.

Mixed leagues, this does not do much for you. I would use a late pick on him. Al-Only should be happy to see him in the AL. He has the potential to be a great 3rd OF'er.

Albert

2009-02-17T04:00:00.002-05:00

It usually isn't good news when a player pulls out of a competition, especially one where they would be representing their country. But, Albert Pujols of the Cardinals will not represent his country in the upcoming WBC and for you fantasy owners, this is might turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Coming off a monster year with a bad elbow and now coming off surgery, the absence from the WBC might be a turning point for the 2009 fantasy season. Less time at the WBC gives him more time to prepare and be 110%. He said he is 100% healthy and if insurance issues weren't getting in his way he'd be representing the DR.

For owners of Pujols, you should be extremely happy to see him on the sidelines and slowly preparing for the 2009 season.

Just thinking about the numbers he could produce in 2009 makes me drool.

Small Signings

2009-02-13T23:19:00.002-05:00

Bobby Abreu is signed and will play for the Angels. He has value as a 2nd OF'er with his ability to hit 15-20HRs and steal 20 bags. Draft him with the intention of him stealing 20 but don't be surprised if he takes 30 this year with the agressive base tactics that the Angels follow.

Delmon Young is not guarenteed a spot on the Twins roster but this is why I think he will have a productive year. He has the potential and the skill to be in the majors. Look for Young late in drafts, as in last two picks, and you might grab a sleeper.

Adam Dunn is part of the Nationals. This guy is a pure power hitter. If you sign him you will get the great power numbers but you MUST grab a guy who is going to hit .320AVG to offset Dunn's low .240AVG.

Maine

2009-01-30T20:58:00.002-05:00

John Maine signed with the Mets and will find himself as a 3rd/4th starter in fantasy. He has the potential to give fantasy great stats with his strong K/9 of 7.84. If he can stay healthy he might even be a break out pitcher in 2009. He is approaching the 500IP career mark and usually pitchers seem to find a groove at this stage in their career. I will be trying to find a spot on my fantasy team for Maine in the late rounds. Hopefully, his injury last year will scare off some fantasy owners.

Garland

2009-01-30T07:49:00.003-05:00

Jon Garland is pitching in the NL now with the Arizona Diamondbacks. This guy seems to be a lock for 12-15 wins a season but other than that, he has nothing spectacular to offer fantasy owners. He is a guy that could potentially turn into a stud pitcher for one season like former MLB pitcher Esteban Loaiza. He doesn't have a high K rate and with his ERA hovering around 4.50 you end up with something that isn't worth the pain. If you are in need of a 5th starter or someone to gamble on with your last pick in your draft, he could be your guy. See what he is like in the start and if he rolls keep him on your roster, if he falters cut him.

One positive is he is moving from the tougher AL to the easier NL.

Yoooouuuuuuuuu!

2009-01-16T19:43:00.003-05:00

Kevin Youkilis is now a proud owner of a new contract with the Red Sox. Both sides avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 4-year contract. Please don't get the impression that Youkilis is going to hit .312AVG with 29HRs and drive in 112RBIs every year. I don't see that happening since he didn't show this during his first 4 seasons in the bigs. I do like the lineup around him so he should produce decent numbers but, like I said, I can't seem him repeating 2008.

The one thing he has on his side is he is still relatively young, turning 30 this March.

Fantasy owners should see him as a low risk high return, the type we love as investors, type of guy. You can draft him fairly late in drafts and will get decent numbers but maybe he could explode and have another "career year" type of season.

Braves

2009-01-14T05:15:00.003-05:00

The Braves have made a small splash in the market with the addition of Derek Lowe and Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami.

Derek Lowe - Don't expect him to put up numbers like his 02 and 03 seasons but do expect him to be a solid 3/4th starter in fantasy. His ability to stay healthy and pitch makes him a nice addition to fill out your roster. Look for him fairly late in drafts.

Kenshin Kawakami - His stats look impressive, like most Japanese pitchers who come over, but don't expect too much from him. He is 33 years old and will only be effective in the majors because hitters haven't seen him. He does not have over powering stuff and will most likely look like Kuroda with the Dodgers. I would not draft him unless it was a last pick.

Signings keep coming

2009-01-09T19:18:00.004-05:00

John Smoltz is now a part of the big boys in Boston. After spending his entire career wearing a Braves uniform he is now going to, or most likely going to, finish his career as a Red Sox and maybe add another World Series ring to his collection. Even though he is going to be on the DL when the 2009 draft happens I would recommend you drafting him and placing him on your DL. Of course you can draft this guy later in drafts. He will always put up the numbers you want from a pitcher. He won't be a closer and depending on his health he could be the 5th starter behind a very strong starting rotation. Conclusion, have him on your 2009 team.

Rocco Baldelli will find himself wearing a new uniform as well after spending his entire career in Tampa Bay. Albeit a shorter career than Smoltz. Rocco will be a back-up to Ellsbury and Drew but will find plenty of at-bats against lefties and also days off from both players. Rocco has value in AL-Only leagues at the moment but if Rocco can get over his midocondria condition and find a way to hit like his rookie year he could easily take over for either Ellsbury or Drew. Plus, injuries always seem to haunt Drew making more playing time for Baldelli. AL-only guys, have Baldelli on your team. Mixed leaguers should wait.

Brad Penny finalized his contract with the Red Sox and will be in their rotation. If he can stay healthy this is a guy that can find himself very usefull to fantasy owners. With an offence like the Red Sox scoring plenty of runs expect Penny to produce plenty of wins. Penny is a guy you can grab very late in fantasy drafts and should be picked as an upside pick.

Koji Uehara is another Japanese player trying to make it big in the major leagues. After a very successful career in Japan Uehara will be making the jump at the young age of 33. This is not a guy you want to really pick for your team. In my honest opinion his numbers are great but at the age of 33 and also pitching in the toughest division in baseball and adding in a terrible offence he probably won't be getting a lot of wins.

Trevor Hoffman is staying put in the National League and will close out games for the Brewers. This is great news for fantasy owners becauase one, he is staying put in the NL where he knows the competition and two, he is still going to be a closer. As with every draft, this guy should be drafted. He is a mid-tier closer.

Jason Giambi will return to his old stomping grounds in Oakland. The A's have signed him and for fantasy owners nothing new. He should be draft but later in drafts because of his decline and lack of ability to produce a decent AVG. With the likes of Holliday in the lineup expect Giambi to produce his usual numbers, if he stays healthy.

Pavano/Marquis

2009-01-07T04:24:00.004-05:00

Carl Pavano has found a team and that team is the Cleveland Indians. After 4 years of collecting paycheques while sitting on his ass injured he is trying to start over. As a 33 year old Pavano still has the ability to be a productive pitcher in fantasy leagues. The only problem is if he can stay healthy. During drafts, Pavano should not be picked unless you have a $1 for your last pick or if you have one pick to "waste" at the end of your draft. He has upside and is worth a spot on your radar but don't try to justify him by his years in Florida.

Jason Marquis was acquired in a trade by the Rockies and will be fighting for a spot in the back end of their rotation. This is the type of guy that can be helpful for your team if you can catch him on a hot streak. He is a guy you pick up during favouable match-ups. No need to draft him.