Enter Jeff Teague, a player in a long line of big-ticket free agents, who figures to resign with the Hawks (but you just never know).  Free agency negotiations start July 1st with signings starting the 10th, so there’s still some time.  It looks most likely he’ll stay in ATL, where I think he’ll be a fantastic bargain on draft day.  He really improved all facets of his game, and I think is ready to make the leap into becoming the face of the franchise with Josh Smith probably leaving town.  Let’s look at his numbers from last year:

2012-13 Line: 14.6 Pts/2.3 Reb/7.2 Ast/1.5 Stl/0.4 Blk/5.5 FGM/1.1 3PTM/2.5 FTM

2012-13 %s: 45.1 FG%/35.9 3PT%/88.1 FT%

A solid season across the board from Teague, who saw huge improvements in virtually every statistic, despite playing a few less minutes a night.  The jump from 4.9 Asts in 2012-13 to 7.2 last year while going from 2.0 to 2.9 TOs a game is a solid leap, pitting the ball in his hands more and more often.  Every time I watched the Hawks – Teague was slashing, making plays on D, and took over at times.

Teague was huge in February and March, scoring 18.3 and 15.2 a game respectively, while knocking down 4.1 and 2.8 free throws a night, and shooting over 90% behind the stripe.  In fact, Teague’s overall free throw shooting jumped 13 points from 2012-2013 to that 88.1% last year.  I think he can continue that high percentage while topping 3 FTM a game in 2013-14.  And all of those scoring numbers were not to the detriment to his assists, when he had a 9.3 ast/game rate in February when he really took off.

Another big improvement was Teague’s 3-point shooting which upped to 1.1 made a night at 35.9%.  Yeah the percentage isn’t great, but he consistently made at least 1 a night every month of the season.  He’s not much of a rebounder, but he scatters in a few blocks and I think can again improve in several categories.  I have Teague at 33 right now on my way too early rankings, which is a solid place where I hope to get him in every league’s fourth round.

2013-14 Proj: 17.8 Pts/2.4 Rebs/8.1 Asts/1.7 Stls/0.4 Blks/6.6 FGM/1.4 3PTM/3.2 FTM

Well now that I have undersold my intelligence, let me try to get you to buy on the Luminescent Lithuanian before anyone else in your draft can nab him:

2012-13 Line: 8.9 Pts/6.0 Reb/0.7 Ast/0.3 Stl/1.3 Blk/3.3 FGM/0.0 3PTM/2.4 FTM

2012-13 %s: 55.7 FG%/NA 3PT%/78.9 FT%

Obviously Valanciunas was a rookie, he didn’t play a full season, and had a broken finger that he has to be eased back from.  So the season numbers are not what you want to look at, but to be uniform with the sleeper pieces this year, I included them.

In 15 games in March he went 11.4-7.3 a night with 1.1 blocks while shooting an unreal 62%.  Talk about Birdman in the playoffs!  Then in 7 April games, LL went 14.9-5.9 and up to 2.4 blocks.  His free throw shooting those last 7 games were 6.6-7.7 for a fantastic 85.2% clip.  As the fantasy baseball community would say, “small sample!”  Well sure, but these were the only months he got big minutes, and with all efforts going into trading Andrea Bargnani, who was hurt most of those games anyway, it looks like Valanciunas will be the everyday 5 up North.

What I love about Valanciunas is his ability to absorb contact and still score.  He’s able to score a ton of and-ones and get to the line in huge bunches.  On April 3rd against the Wizards, he was an unreal 16-18 at the line and was unstoppable down low.  Given it was the Wizards with no consistent big man, and also a game that boosted that big spike in FTM/FTA stats in April as I listed above, but I think he can have 10-15 double digit free throw games in there, while shooting mid-80% from the line.  His shooting efficiency from the floor is also very desirable, getting more and more consistent with bigger minutes, and I think can easy repeat 55.7 FG% and even up to 57-58%.

While he’s entering only his second season at age 21, he’s been playing pro ball in Europe since he was 16, so he’s used to banging around the Balkins.  His presence down low isn’t exactly violent, but it’s smooth and succinct.  With Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan (another sleeper I love heading into 2013-2014) slashing to the rim, I expect a lot of solid cleanup opportunities from LL with the defense sucked in.  I think the Raptors have the makings of a really solid bottom 3-4 Eastern playoff team.

I may have pushed him too high with a 50 overall ranking heading into next season, that’s the most optimistic you’ll see anywhere, but I think he’s a guy you want on all your teams.  He’ll probably drop a few spots in the re-rankings closer to the season, but he’ll happily end up on all my teams with a 6th round pick.  The shooting %s are going to be fantastic.

2013-14 Proj: 16.6 Pts/7.7 Rebs/2.1 Asts/0.6 Stls/1.7 Blks/6.0 FGM/NA 3PTM/4.6 FTM

So that takes me to DeMar DeRozan, a guy I wasn’t going to write my first sleeper post on at first, but amidst my ranking at 67 in my Way Too Early Rankings, I decided to dig deeper and try to convince Razzballers why they should spend a higher price on DeRozan than other rankings would suggest:

2012-13 Line: 18.1 Pts/3.9 Reb/2.5 Ast/0.9 Stl/0.3 Blk/6.7 FGM/0.4 3PTM/4.3 FTM

2012-13 %s: 44.5 FG%/28.3 3PT%/83.1 FT%

Decent numbers across the board, but nothing really sticks out.  DeRozan’s best asset, scoring, is obviously not the most ideal stat, but is still valuable.  DeRozan also set career-highs in several stats, including points, assists, rebounds, and FT%.  Sure setting a career high in minutes boosts some of those counting stats, but a huge jump in Ast/TO ratio (has been 1:1 his whole career up to 2.5:1.8 last year) has me seeing he’s more confident and efficient with the ball.

My big excitement stems from the acquisition of Rudy Gay which a lot of drafters would see as a detriment to DeRozan’s numbers.  However, it was the opposite that became true.  Remember, DeRozan isn’t a blossoming superstar, I don’t think anyone outside of Toronto sees that, and while he got the big contract, might have been ill-suited to be the team’s only main scoring option.  Also, remember Gay isn’t exactly an elite scorer either, only averaging over 20 a game in 2007-08 in his second season.  I think the two players are going to work exceedingly well off of each other.

After Gay was acquired on January 30th this year, DeRozan posted fantastic numbers, that I think can even improve with off-season time to gel with Gay.  His post All-Star break numbers of 19.1 points a game while shooting nearly 3% better from the floor and 2% better from deep, while indeed only marginal improvements, has me seeing the added defensive emphasis needed on Gay helped loosen up DeRozan.  In the last 9 games of the season, DeRozan simply went off for 22.9 points a game, a three-pointer per, shooting 54% from the floor and 50% from deep, with 6 of those games against playoff teams.

DeRozan isn’t going to all the sudden be a multi-cat powerhouse and also won’t vault into the top 20 or anything, but he’s a solid scorer, improving on his efficiency, and gets to play off of another star rather than be forced to do it all himself.  He gets to the line at a good clip/with a good percentage and I think can improve his shooting from deep.  His floor is pretty low, with a solid ceiling that could make him a top-50ish player.  I also like guys with low floors that miss very few games, and DeRozan has played in all but eight Raptors games in four seasons, including playing all 82 last year.  At a discounted price, he’ll end up on a lot of my teams.

2013-14 Proj: 19.5 Pts/3.5 Rebs/2.9 Asts/1.1 Stls/0.3 Blks/6.9 FGM/0.8 3PTM/4.7 FTM

If you missed it the other night, the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery was selected (coincidentally right when a huge Powerball was built up and won – conspiracy?!) with the Cleveland Cavaliers winning another #1 pick.  Nerlens Noel, or Captain N as I’m going to call him, looks like he’s heading to one of basketball’s friendliest cities.  Just don’t leave for another team in a televised special.  Honestly, my first thought was, “great, another talented player I have to navigate through injury estimates with.”

Anyway, I doubt any NBA rookies will crack the top 100 for fantasy this year, it’s a pretty weak draft class, but that’s why these way too early rankings will be capped at 100 before readdressed closer to the season when they’ll expand to 200.  As always with rankings this early, it’s May, the Finals haven’t even started yet, and there will be a lot of revisions.  But here’s how I see things shaking out as of right now:

51. Kemba Walker - Go Hornets!  I’m sure Walker will have more buzz (see what I did there) in a lot of other rankings, but he’s just not that caliber of player.  The 2.0 Stls a game were awesome, but he shot under 30% from 3 in the 2nd half and had a lot of struggling games.  I see him being a bust if picked in the top 50.

52. Greg Monroe – Man, the hate I’ve been getting from a few commenters not having Monroe in the top 50. Random fact, 52 is my lucky number!  Wait, so does that mean this pick will be right, or Monroe will be awesome?  That’s up to you to decide, but I see a guy that has to vie for the rock with the emergence of Andre Drummond (who I’m not the biggest fan of either but he is going to get a lot of front court minutes) and had a lot of red flags last year.  A FG% that dropped 3.5% (and he only made 0.1 more FG a game, so it’s not like it was due to taking a ton more shots being an offensive focal point), a FT% dropping 5%, 2.9 TOs a game and a microscopic block total for a big.  I watched 5-6 Pistons games last year and Monroe seemed to always pull a disappearing act.  I’m avoiding.

53. George Hill - A solid season for Hill, just wish he could dime a bit more.  But he turns the ball over so friggin’ little!

54. Tobias Harris – Since taking over Razzball Basketball, I’ve written ad nauseum on Harris.  I like the kid a lot.  His ranking is going to be one of the most volatile this preseason, but right now, I think Harris has won himself a starting SF gig.  His numbers with the Magic were obviously mind-boggling, but that was on an injury ravaged lost team.  However, he is an across the board, rainbow line gold mine, and I think even with 4-5 fewer minutes can finish the year around here.  Playing with fire, but I love the upside.

59. Pau Gasol – Howard’s return plays a huge factor in this ranking, and right now I’m guessing he does, knocking Gasol down a bit.  Listen, I think he still does have gas left in the tank (see what I did there?), but injury concerns still linger.  Plus declining FG% and Rebs aren’t inspiring.  Will move way up if Howard moves on, especially with no Kobe for a while either.

60. Klay Thompson – The end of year shooting slump has me scared, which is why he’s lower than a few rankings I’ve seen by comparison.  He destroyed a lot of playoff pushes and was borderline droppable at the end of the year.  ThrAGNOF!

61. Goran Dragic – The Phoenix Suns were a joke last year.  After playing well, he got arbitrarily benched for a couple of games, but there’s tons of optimism from (thank god) new GM Ryan McDonough and current interim coach Lindsey Hunter.  The big breakout didn’t happen last year, but I think it could be coming this year.  May move up depending on some of the Suns’ offseason moves.

62. Paul Millsap – Millsap looks like he’s changing homes, so tough to rank him higher or lower than here.  Still a quality player, but if moved to the right location, could move up. 

63. Jeff Green - If Garnett retires, Green may very well move into the top 50.  Flashed some absolutely unbelievable games when he started, and I think everyone that is involved with the Celtics knows he needs to become a focal point.  Will be even more paramount while Rondo is out.  Loving the hype.

64. David West - West thrived his second year with the Pacers, dramatically improving every major stat and still able to deliver across all categories.  Safe and reliable as it comes.

65. Zach Randolph - A guy that seems to be on my team a lot of seasons as a value pick, continues to be a steady scoring/boarding option, despite getting up there in age.

66. Monta Ellis – A nice bounce back year for Ellis, who returned to over 2 Stls a game, tied a career-high in assists a game, and continues to be one of the most electric guards in the game.  However, as of right now, it’s uncertain where he’s going and at this point I think it’s out of Milwaukee and somewhere where he’s going to get a tad less rock.  That’s obviously speculation, and Ellis’ ranking will surely alter once we know where he’s headed.

67. DeMar DeRozan - Rudy Gay obviously becomes the #1 scoring option, but DeRozan actually thrived with another star in the fold.  Struggling out of the gate, DeRozan actually averaged 1.5 more Pts and 0.5 Asts after the All-Star break once Gay arrived, plus shot 3% better from the field and 2% better from deep.  I have a lot of faith in the Raptors to be a surprise team next year (see Luminescent Lithuanian), with DeRozan banking on that contract without the pressure of having to be the go-to guy.

68. Derrick Favors - Still a bit raw, Favors has all the potential in the world and may be looking at a starting gig in Utah.  In only 23 minutes a game last year he was 9.4/7.1 with 1.7 blocks a game.  He’s uber-athletic, a real force down low, and I think could be a 13/11 guy with 2.5 blocks a game, which would be a huge value in the middle rounds.  Very high on him.

69. Gerald Henderson - Listen, with my admitted Charlotte (re)Hornets fandom, I might be buying a little too steep, but Henderson’s run down the stretch was pretty unreal.  His second half of 18.9/4.0/3.4/1.0/0.6 should have a lot of people interested.  All he needs is consistent starting minutes, which I think he’s earned despite a high draft pick coming into the mix.

70. Jimmy Butler – After the Bulls virtually set up a triage in their locker room for players dropping like flies, Butler became a solid constant, playing 48 minutes virtually every playoff game.  There is a logjam with Luol Deng still in the fold, but I have a feeling he gets moved and/or the find a way to give the uber-durable Butler a starting gig.

71. Tristan Thompson – There is a big concern that his numbers across the final four months were much improved (aka Anderson Varejao was out), but every time I watched TT I thought he looked better and better.  A conservative double-double a night plus at least 2 Asts, 1 Stl and 1 Blk on the low end has me seeing a ton of upside (11.7/9.4/1.3/0.7/0.9 last year).

72. Andre Iguodala - Love Iguodala as a player, and his defensive prowess and fast break acumen make him a better real-life player than in fantasy.  However, he’s still a big-time contributor to your squad and should have another solid season.

73. Anderson Varejao - The league’s leading rebounder in the first quarter unfortunately went down with injuries, which is why I can’t bear to take him any higher than this.  That said, he was averaging 3.4 Asts a game, absurd in that it would’ve doubled his career-high, along with 14/14 a game.  Even though I will probably be passing, there is tons of upside here.

74. Wilson Chandler - It all comes down to the Danilo Gallinari ACL tear, which depending on his recovery time, will give Chandler 2-4 months of starting time.  Like Jeff Green, we saw tons of upside with big minutes, and in a starting gig, could be a monster in the first half.

75. Kyle Lowry - Have I mentioned I’m all in on the Raptors?  Four guys in the top 75?!  What is this, Podcast Host Nick’s rankings?  I know the points were down, but he’s going to have so many wide open 3′s with Gay and DeRozan slashing to the lane, he’s gonna top 6 Asts a game again, nab 1.5 Stls and get a block here and there (averaged 0.4 Blks a game last year) which helps at PG.  The back issues are a concern though.

76. JR Smith - I’m probably going to get yelled at for this ranking, but despite setting a career-high in scoring and thriving in the Knicks offense, I see a wildly inconsistent player on a team that I think will be dysfunctional next year.  We saw it in the playoffs.

77. Eric Bledsoe - This obviously assumes Bledsoe gets traded and nabs a starting job.  Which I think he does.  That run he had when Chris Paul got hurt was absolutely unreal, in 9 starts from January 22 to February 4 he scored double-digits in every single game, 3+ assists every game (averaged 5.8), a block in every single game (1.6/game) and 2.4 steals a game.  If the starting gig in the right place is set up before I adjust the rankings before the season, expect there to be a lot of Bledsoe love, and I’ll be in the wave.

78. O.J. Mayo - An absolute resurrection moving to Dallas, Mayo returned to his rookie and sophomore year form and averaged a career-high assists.  If the Mavs bring in a few big-ticket free agents, he’ll move down though.

79. Andre Drummond – I must hate the Pistons, as I believe I’ll be lower on both their bigs than most rankers.  You love the blocks and boards, I could see 2 and 10 a game respectively, but the offense is so raw and the playing time so ungaurenteed that I won’t pick Drummond before here.

80. Kenneth Faried - I love Faried. Love, love, love him.  Hard to believe this guy didn’t average 10 boards a game last year but was close and a steal and a block a game were nice.  But he gets virtually no assists, doesn’t shoot threes, and shoots only 61% from the stripe, keeping him from vaulting higher for me.

81. Glen Davis - Injuries have been tough on Big Baby, but before breaking his foot, Davis was well on his way to a breakout season.  Can hit on every stat category, will be one of the Magic’s go-to scorer (still think Tobias will be right there with him though) and will be overlooked by a lot of owners on draft day.

86. Eric Gordon – The injury bug did more than bite Gordon the past few season, they implanted in his knees and have kept him from bouncing back.  That said, when on the court he was solid last year.  Yea he shot worse from the field and won’t get virtually any boards, but I think will hit some threes, he showed he can still drive in the NO games I watched last year, and I think if he can get past getting benched on back-to-back games will return this kind of value.

98. Mo Williams - Like Nelson, injuries have been abound for Mo-Will the past few seasons, but still is a top 100 player for me.  What he’s lost with his 3-point stroke he’s gained in assists.

99. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - It was an up and down rookie season for the young now-Hornet, but he’s only 19 (he’ll turn 20 right before next season starts) and oozes potential.  A lot will be factored in with the Hornets’ draft and off-season moves, but he has the upside to really deliver a solid multi-cat season.

Since taking over the rundowns and general Razzball Basketball reigns, I have been thrusting my new terms into the void that is the lack of new Razzball catch phrases for the basketball side.  Have you seen Enter The Void?  Yea it’s like that.  Here’s some phrases that will always be added to, never limited to, and always changing:

Charlie Day - Josh McRoberts.  C’mon, everyone sees that.

The Colonel - Larry Sanders.  Original recipe.

Doug Collins Shout Out - When your big man, who must be a fairly regular rebounder, gets only 1 or 0 rebounds.  Based off of Doug Collins calling Spencer Hawes for only getting one rebound.

Goromotaro - 20 Pts and 20 Rebounds.  The arms of Goro, the legs and tail of Motaro and the head of Joakim Noah, initiated after one of his 20 20 games.

Gus Ayonin’ - Razzball Basketball version of Cust Kayin’.  Just like the Fantasy Baseball term, it means “just sayin’”.

Luminescent Lithuanian (not Latvian) - Jonas Valanciunas.  Don’t get his nationality wrong, or else!

Rainbow Line - At least 2 Pts/2 Rebs/2 Asts/2 Stls/2 Blks.  They’re always after me lucky charms!

Rony Seikaly Broke Google - When I was searching his name to be sure it was spelled correctly, for some reason it shut down the tab I was in.  Was a very bizarre occurrence.  A term for a player that isn’t a frequent mention and needs his name looked up.

Schmohawk - The same as Fantasy Baseball, meaning a less than desirable player.  Since Nate Robinson is my least favorite player, and frequently seems to have a schmohawk, it’s more than appropriate.

ThrAGNOF - Similar to the Razzball Baseball team and their theory of SAGNOF (saves ain’t got no face), the theory that 3-point specialists should not be valued highly and can be streamed when shooters are hot (threes ain’t got no face).  ThrAGNOF!

“Wahhhhhhh, I’m Jarrett Jack!” - When a player complains about something.  Named because Jarrett Jack frequently looks like he’s about to cry, and a fun catch phrase my friends and I say back and forth.

Wiggity Woo - Whoopty Doo.  Big Whoop.  Big friggin’ deal.  All the same shenanigans.

Trust me, plenty more will be filtered in here.  Suggestions?  Things I forgot?  Shoot below!