Fantasy Football B.S.

Good read on QB consistency

2012-04-12T11:32:00.000-07:00

http://football.razzball.com/fantasy-football-quarterback-consistency

Tim Tebow trade to Jets just heavenly

2012-03-22T11:47:00.001-07:00

4th and Very Looong

2011-11-24T05:48:00.000-08:00

My fantasy season is mostly over thanks to a very flawed strategy of taking crappy players on crappy teams and Andre Johnson and Jay Cutler as my holdovers.

Oh well. Onward and Upward. So, I had two free agent moves left and I picked up Peyton Manning and Kenny Britt. Both of which will cost me $20 to holdover (total budget of $181...don't ask). So less than 10% for each to get a Top 3 QB and a rising star at WR who was the second best until a blown ligament.

I also have Antonio Brown for $8 and Tim Tebow for $5. I was hoping Stevan Ridley would have taken over for BenJarvis Green-Ellis by now...or at least an injury so he would get 15 plus touches a game. No luck there.

Looks like I will be paying big bucks for a #1 and #2 RB next year. Fingers crossed that Manning is back and Britt is 100%.

Who is the Biggest Bust in Fantasy Football This Year?

2011-11-03T06:42:00.000-07:00

Check out the poll in the right-hand column.

First, let me preface this by saying that Jamal Charles and Peyton Manning are not on this list. Why? Because even though they were first and second rounders and if you took them you are not getting anything from them, at least you knew that early and you could cut bait on them early on. Andre Johnson you are stuck holding the bag. Worse is brother Chris, who, up until this week, you had to start.

These guys were all first, second or early third rounders and you are theoretically bound to start them, week in and week out.

Any names I missed?

Javon Ringer Should Take Over for Chris Johnson, But He Won't

2011-11-01T11:38:00.000-07:00

You heard it here first. Mike Munchak is saying all the wrong things and he is lying through his teeth. He says that Johnson's teammates are behind him (which, if you think about it is a problem for a running back, wouldn't you want them in front of you?).

But really, Munchak needs to hand the reigns over to Javon Ringer, who looks better, runs better, and is a better teammate. Ringer's main problem? He isn't raking in the big dollars, so he's not going to get a fair shake.

My last dollar says that management of the Titans is telling Munchak to keep Johnson in there because they just dropped a big wad of cash on him and they need to justify their (poor) decision.

Publish Post

What/Who? I Did on My Bye Week...by Rob Gronkowski

2011-10-25T12:56:00.001-07:00

If you are a New England Patriots fan or have Rob Gronkowski on your roster, shouldn't you be a bit concerned about this?

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/10/22/heres-two-photos-of-patriots-te-rob-gronkowski-spending-his-bye-week-with-porn-star-bibi-jones/

Tim Tebow is my Savior?

2011-10-13T08:03:00.000-07:00

My strategy this year was to wait on starting QB, get a couple of mid-value guys, then shuffle them in-and-out of the lineup depending on the weekly matchup.

I felt pretty good about coming away with Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler. What a mistake. Cutler, through no fault of his own, cannot stay upright. And Flacco has been mediocre. On a weekly basis, I feel that I am already down 10 points to my opponents going into any matchup. Hell, they could have Rex Grossman going and I still don't feel confident that Flacco or Cutler will post 20 plus points (we get 6 points for any TD in our league).

Therein lies my strategic problem. With the value of TD's at 6 points, QB is vital to success in our league.

Okay, hindsight is 20/20. What to do now?

Call in the Savior...Tim Tebow. Granted, I have to wait another week, but he could be this fantasy season's Michael Vick. This is for fantasy, I don't give a crap if Denver losses the rest of their games. I just want Tim "Fantasy Savior" Tebow out there, running, throwing, catching, punting, kicking, tackling...whatever it takes to score points.

In limited action last weekend, he put up 17 fantasy points in a standard scoring league. In my league, that would have been good for 18 points. In one half!!! Last season he averaged 25 points per game in the last 3 games of the season (in my league, it was slightly better at 28.33 ppg).

So, I am going with Tebow. My season may be over (I have Andre Johnson as my #1 point-getter. Ouch.), so at least I can holdover Tebow for next-to-nothing for next year.

Tebow in 2012. I like the sound of that.

When to throw in the towel?

2011-10-12T05:05:00.000-07:00

For those of us in leagues that have holdovers and are 1-4 or 0-5, when is the time to start trolling for holdovers?

In my money league, not only am I off to a slow start at 1-4, but my best player is...you guessed it Andre Johnson. The same Andre Johnson that cost me over 25% of my budget and is out for who knows how long. The rest of my lineup is suspect, too. Cutler/Flacco at QB, Cedric Benson at RB, Brandon Lloyd as my number 2 WR.

I have already been offered Jamaal Charles straight up, he would only cost me $16 or less than 10% of my budget next year. If I were 0-5, I would probably take that deal and start planning for next year. However, I think I'll stick it out until I get to 6 losses. That could happen very soon, of course, but we will see.

I think everyone should stick with it until they get to the 6 loss mark...by week 7. I have seen teams run off 5, 6, or even 7 game winning streaks. Anything can happen. Say you started out 1-4 or 0-5, then run off 6 straight? You are back in it!

The Talented Mr. Ridley...Stevan Ridley

2011-10-07T18:07:00.000-07:00

Sneaky Pick? I don't think so any more. Everyone saw what Stevan Ridley could do in the preseason and we all got a bigger peak at his potential this past Sunday against the Oakland Raiders.

What we are seeing is the beginning of another Faulk era in football. And not the estimitable Kevin of New England and LSU fame. No. This could be another Marshall of NFL HOF, Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams fame.

With Danny Woodhead banged up, this increases Faulk, er Ridley's playing time. BenJarvis Green-Ellis will still get 10 to 15 carries, but this New Era Faulk will get 12 carries and 4 catches this weekend and has the breakaway ability to score one from 60 plus yards out. Conservatively, we are looking at 8 fantasy points. Aggressively, 18 with a line of 12 carries for 100 yards, 4 catches for 20, and the long gainer TD for another 6 points.

Risky play? Maybe, but if you have a spot on your roster and if you are in a holdover or dynasty league, grab Ridley now and thank me later.

Andre Johnson Replacements?

2011-10-04T06:25:00.000-07:00

Bryant Johnson?
Jacoby Jones?
Kevin Walter?

I think that Jacoby Jones will take on the position, but Walter gets more looks now that Andre Johnson is hurt. That said, I would not burn a move or drop a Nate (Burleson or Washington) in doing so.

Andre Johnson will be back within a couple of weeks.

Bottom 8 defenses against the Run – Tim Hightower and Ray Rice will dominate

2011-09-30T11:20:00.000-07:00

1. Rams v. Washington – Tim Hightower – play, Top 5 in points this week

2. Jets v. Baltimore – Ray Rice – play, Top 5 in points

3. Eagles v. San Francisco – Frank Gore/ Kendall Hunter – play, unless you have better option

4. Browns v. Tennessee – Chris Johnson – play, Top 10

5. Chiefs v. Minnesota – Adrian Peterson – play, Top 5

6. Cardinals v. New York Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs – play whichever you have, possibly both

7. Raiders v. New England – BenJarvis Green-Ellis/Stevan Ridley/Danny Woodhead – play Green-Ellis

8. Colts v. Tampa – LeGarrett Blount – play, Top 10 in points

Top Ten Defenses Against the Run - What RB's to Play or Sit against them

2011-09-30T06:25:00.000-07:00

Packers v. Denver (Willis McGahee – SIT...may get 4 or 5 points)
Cowboys v. Detroit (Jahvid Best – sit if you have better option, will still get 8 points thanks to involvement in passing game)
49ers v. Philadelphia (LeSean McCoy – sit if you have better option, will still get 8 points thanks to involvement in passing game)
Vikings v. Kansas City (McCluster/Jones – sit, McCluster gets 7 points, Jones 4 points)
Jaguars v. New Orleans (Mark Ingram – play, will get TD and 60 yds, good for 12 points)
Ravens v. New York Jets (Shonne Green/LaDanian Tomlinson – sit, neither will get more than 5 points)
Bengals v. Buffalo (Fred Jackson – sit only if you have better option, will still get 12 points thanks to his involvement in passing game)
Titans v. Cleveland (Peyton Hillis/Montario Hardesty – sit, neither gets a TD, best case is Hillis getting 8 points, Hardesty 3 points)
Saints v. Jacksonville (Maurice Jones-Drew -- sit only if you have better options, will still get 14 points as he will score a TD)
Patriots v. Oakland (Darren McFadden – play no matter what, will get 16 plus points thanks to his involvement in passing game)

Montario Hardesty Proves Worth Holding

2011-09-28T11:34:00.000-07:00

With Peyton Hillis' sore throat, Montario Hardesty proved that he could handle the load, if necessary.

Another one to add to the back-up plan...along with Stevan Ridley.

See ESPN article for more info:

http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/blog/_/name/karabell_eric_football/id/7026615/montario-hardesty-nate-washington-move-fantasy-football-season-rankings

Hidden Gem or Waste of Time? Your thoughts on Steve Slaton

2011-09-28T08:58:00.000-07:00

Some excellent arguments for Steve Slaton. If you have the stomach and roster space, he may be worth stashing:

http://www.kffl.com/blogs/rb/steve-slaton-can-a-perfect-fantasy-football-storm-develop/2011-09-27/trackback/

Sidney Rice over Cedric Benson...got it right, but what good does that do me?

2011-09-26T05:17:00.000-07:00

Not much. I got creamed this weekend with my opponent having Schaub, McFadden and the Ravens DST.

Oh well, maybe James Starks will show up for me next weekend?

Why I Am Starting Sidney Rice over Cedric Benson

2011-09-21T17:04:00.000-07:00

As we hear all the time...the NFL is about "match-ups." So here we go...Sidney Rice has not played yet this season and Cedric Benson is having a nice start to his season. Why do I mention these two...because Rice is up against one of the worst passing defenses and Benson is going up against one of the best running defenses.

Play the matchups and ignore the names when it comes to picking your flex options.

Top 100 PPR Rankings for Week 2

2011-09-16T13:33:00.000-07:00

Top 150 Flex PPR Rankings -- Week 2
1	Rice, Ray RB, BAL
2	Johnson, Calvin WR, DET
3	Johnson, Andre WR, HOU
4	Mendenhall, Rashard RB, PIT
5	Hillis, Peyton RB, CLE
6	McCoy, LeSean RB, PHI
7	Fitzgerald, Larry WR, ARI
8	Austin, Miles WR, DAL
9	Jennings, Greg WR, GB
10	Wallace, Mike WR, PIT
11	Peterson, Adrian RB, MIN
12	McFadden, Darren RB, OAK
13	Forte, Matt RB, CHI
14	Charles, Jamaal RB, KC
15	Foster, Arian RB, HOU
16	Best, Jahvid RB, DET
17	Nicks, Hakeem WR, NYG
18	Williams, Mike WR, TB
19	Wayne, Reggie WR, IND
20	Marshall, Brandon WR, MIA
21	Witten, Jason TE, DAL
22	Turner, Michael RB, ATL
23	Holmes, Santonio WR, NYJ
24	Jackson, DeSean WR, PHI
25	Jackson, Vincent WR, SD
26	Boldin, Anquan WR, BAL
27	Welker, Wes WR, NE
28	Finley, Jermichael TE, GB
29	Gates, Antonio TE, SD
30	Davis, Vernon TE, SF
31	Jackson, Fred RB, BUF
32	Bryant, Dez WR, DAL
33	Moss, Santana WR, WAS
34	Graham, Jimmy TE, NO
35	Hernandez, Aaron TE, NE
36	Olsen, Greg TE, CAR
37	Clark, Dallas TE, IND
38	Jones, Felix RB, DAL
39	Hightower, Tim RB, WAS
40	White, Roddy WR, ATL
41	Gore, Frank RB, SF
42	Bowe, Dwayne WR, KC
43	Benson, Cedric RB, CIN
44	Bradshaw, Ahmad RB, NYG
45	Tolbert, Mike RB, SD
46	Johnson, Chris RB, TEN
47	Jones-Drew, Maurice RB, JAC
48	Bush, Reggie RB, MIA
49	Manningham, Mario WR, NYG
50	Burress, Plaxico WR, NYJ
51	Starks, James RB, GB
52	Keller, Dustin TE, NYJ
53	Britt, Kenny WR, TEN
54	Lloyd, Brandon WR, DEN
55	Johnson, Steve WR, BUF
56	Harvin, Percy WR, MIN
57	Maclin, Jeremy WR, PHI
58	Nelson, Jordy WR, GB
59	Gonzalez, Tony TE, ATL
60	Daniels, Owen TE, HOU
61	Jones, Julio WR, ATL
62	Pettigrew, Brandon TE, DET
63	Burleson, Nate WR, DET
64	Sims-Walker, Mike WR, STL
65	Ward, Hines WR, PIT
66	Smith, Steve WR, CAR
67	Wells, Beanie RB, ARI
68	Kendricks, Lance TE, STL
69	Gresham, Jermaine TE, CIN
70	Meachem, Robert WR, NO
71	Winslow, Kellen TE, TB
72	Evans, Lee WR, BAL
73	Collie, Austin WR, IND
74	Knox, Johnny WR, CHI
75	Moore, Lance WR, NO
76	Henderson, Devery WR, NO
77	Gronkowski, Rob TE, NE
78	Greene, Shonn RB, NYJ
79	Floyd, Malcom WR, SD
80	Edwards, Braylon WR, SF
81	Gibson, Brandon WR, STL
82	Moore, Evan TE, CLE
83	Cooley, Chris TE, WAS
84	Davis, Fred TE, WAS
85	Blount, LeGarrette RB, TB
86	Sproles, Darren RB, NO
87	Tate, Ben RB, HOU
88	Mathews, Ryan RB, SD
89	Garcon, Pierre WR, IND
90	Addai, Joseph RB, IND
91	Bess, Davone WR, MIA
92	Branch, Deion WR, NE
93	Dickson, Ed TE, BAL
94	Celek, Brent TE, PHI
95	McGahee, Willis RB, DEN
96	Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB, NE
97	Green, A.J. WR, CIN
98	Gaffney, Jabar WR, WAS
99	Watson, Benjamin TE, CLE
100	Chandler, Scott TE, BUF

Hakeem Nicks takes big Fantasy Value Hit

2011-09-13T17:09:00.000-07:00

You want to be the guy that said, "I discovered that guy." However, Hakeem Nicks is not that guy. He is an injury waiting to happen and now that his team is on the downside, his value will track accordingly. He was being drafted in the second and third rounds, indicating No. 1 fantasy WR value. But now his is more like a lower No. 2.

Why? Injury risk and almost as important, his team is not that good. So what happens when the Giants go up against the Cowboys or Eagles strong rush?

Who would you rather have going forward? Kenny Britt, Wes Welker or Nicks? Give me Welker, Britt, then Nicks. In that order.

What to do about Peyton Manning?

2011-09-10T06:49:00.000-07:00

Pick up Kerry Collins.

Collins' disadvantage is not having a full offseason or even a full training camp. He'll likely start out slow, but by mid-season could be a Matt Cassel or Shaun Hill type point aggregator. Decent players in good offenses.

Collins is good value if you have the spot on your bench and can wait it out a few weeks.

Weekly Toss Up Strategy

2011-09-10T06:42:00.000-07:00

The bottom five defenses:

Miami
Jacksonville
Carolina
Indianapolis
Buffalo

So, when in doubt, get your Patriots, Titans, Cardinals, Texans and Chiefs in the lineup this weekend. Conversely, even though Peyton Manning is out, Indy still has a pass-first offense, and will likely be behind playing catchup. Go with your Indy receivers.

Jay Cutler versus Kyle Orton (Nevermind Tim Tebow)

2011-09-06T17:51:00.000-07:00

As the NFL season, and more importantly the Fantasy Football season, is about to start, it’s worth looking at two quarterbacks that were traded for each other in 2009, have performed fairly similarly over the past three years and yet are viewed very differently.

Jay Cutler is often considered a borderline #1 fantasy quarterback while Kyle Orton is often lumped in with the Tarvaris Jacksons of the world as bye week waiver wire fodder.

Why? Probably because Cutler was a first round pick (#11 overall) in 2006 while Orton was a 4^th rounder in 2005 (106^th overall) and Cutler is said to throw a "laser" while Orton is the Tim Wakefield of NFL starting quarterbacks.

However, a look at their three year per season averages tells a much different story:
Cutler (15 games) – 25 TD, 20 INT, 3,822 yards, 82.9 QB Rating.
Orton (14 games) – 20 TD, 11 INT, 3,478 yards, 85.1 QB Rating.

In my opinion, you would be well advised to draft Orton at least two rounds later than Cutler, fill in your running back or receiver depth and not lose any production from your QB slot. And if you are worried about up and coming Christian Rock Star Tim Teblow (not a misprint) taking Orton’s job, check out Merrill Hoge’s take on the Young Messiah:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/03/merril-hoge-says-tim-tebow-just-cant-play/

Who to follow? Wow...Sports Illustrated!

2011-09-05T04:41:00.000-07:00

Having scoured the Internet for a source of good and relevant fantasy information, I am surprised to find myself at SI.com! I am digging Eric Mack's analysis of preseason games as they relate to fantasy football.

Chris Johnson a must-start, but shy away from Peyton Manning in Week 1 - Eric Mack - SI.com

Tim Hightower to See Major Time or Major Shanahannigans?

2011-09-01T05:19:00.000-07:00

Denver (post Elway/Davis era) used to be the wasteland for fantasy running backs. Now, Mike Shanahan is up to no good again. I can feel it. I can almost taste it. Even if Hightower gets off to a good start, The Shanahannigans will commence.

Tim Hightower is getting pumped up like he is the second coming (of what, I don't know?)

Let's put this in perspective. Hightower is a nice player. He may get 700 yards and 6 TD's, but he is not a legit number 1 and should only be drafted after you have all of your starters in the skill positions. Then you have Shanahan pulling him after a good game.

The true value in Hightower is in what he gives you in Weeks 1 to 3. He'll get the touches, another league owner will still be waiting for Chris Johnson or Arian Foster to come back, that's when you offer up Hightower and a type 3 WR for that guys No. 1 WR.

If you have not made this trade by week 5, forget it. Hightower's true colors will be spewing like Blair Brown.

Arian Foster and Chris Johnson and the top 13 RB's: To Handcuff or Not?

2011-08-31T07:16:00.000-07:00

Handcuffing Arian Foster and Chris Johnson, but at what cost?

If you are in a draft and get Foster or Johnson in the first round, then once you have filled out all of your starters, then you should look to add Tate or Ringer as insurance.

That pretty much goes for just about any first or second round RB.

Here are the top 13 RB's and their cuff buddies, in not particular order:

	Ray Rice		Ricky Williams
	Arian Foster		Ben Tate
	Jamaal Charles		Thomas Jones
	Adrian L. Peterson		Toby Gerhardt
	Chris D. Johnson		Javon Ringer
	Frank Gore		Kendall Hunter
	Darren McFadden		Michael Bush
	Steven Jackson		Cadillac Williams
	Rashard Mendenhall		Mewelde Moore
	Maurice Jones-Drew		Rashad Jennings
	Peyton Hillis		Montario Hardesty
	LeSean McCoy		Ronnie Brown
	Matt Forte		Marion Barber

Cheaper to Keeper?

2011-08-29T17:49:00.000-07:00

Ugh...with the playoffs in sight last season, I made some trades that have left me bereft of any strong tangible holdover prospects. Here are the top prospects that I have to chose from in our 12 Team, 6 points for all TD league (points per reception at 6 plus), with a $200 budget and 18 man roster. We can hold up to 3.

Drew Brees, $57 – Can probably get for slightly less than this if thrown back

Andre Johnson, $50 – Will probably go for this if thrown back

Knowshon Moreno, $35 – May go for more or slightly less, depending on what others are keeping

Cedric Benson, $20 – His recent legal issues have me saying, no thanks

Jay Cutler, $19 – Best value in a QB-heavy league?

Brandon Jacobs, $15 – Will probably go for less if thrown back

Jonathan Stewart, $14 – Will possibly go for slightly more…see Knowshon Moreno explained above

Santana Moss, $12 – Actually, kind of tempting. If he had a better QB, then why not, he may go for around this amount anyway

Slim pickings, I know. So, since our league is very QB friendly, I kept Cutler. And since I didn't see any value in anyone else, I kept Andre Johnson.