Fantasy Football Daily News

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

2012-08-02T07:27:03-07:00

Originally posted at The Show Speak.

Remember the days of the passenger boarding groups for Southwest Airlines (SWA)? Group A, Group B, Group C and you are allowed to board the plane when your “group” was called. Sometimes frustrating, however, if you planned properly, you could avoid being stuck in the later boarding groups which help prevent being sandwiched between the lady with a mustache that should have bought two tickets because of overactive thyroid issues (peanut butter cookie & pork rind addiction) and the obnoxious college frat boy douche bag that makes Spencer Pratt from the Hills seem tolerable.

So what does getting stuck between a lady with more cushion for the pushin and a guy that you can’t wait to see fall asleep pass out so you can share photos in compromising positions via Instagram have to do with fantasy football strategy?

Nothing.

However, the Southwest Airline group boarding system does.

SWA has already mapped out a good fantasy football strategy for you to succeed in your draft with their boarding process. They recognize everyone wants the best seat - so they prioritize based on preparation of the passenger. Just like YOU should prepare based on your goals in your 2012 fantasy football draft.

My Sammy Hagar 3 Lock Box- DRAFT STRATEGY

Group A: These are the guys that you know you want outside of the top ten picks. Recall Spencer Pratt look alike next to you on the plane? He could get a top ten pick right. I’m talking about draft targeting in rounds three, four, five and beyond . For me, the quarterback (QB) position is what I roll into a draft with a target round group focus. While our boy Spence is breaking his arm patting himself on the back for selecting Aaron Rodgers with the sixth pick overall, I am focused on a draft strategy for all 15 rounds. I’m looking for value trends. Evaluating our friends cumulative statistics at fantasy football calculator, we can see average draft position (ADP) of all the top quarterbacks. As of now, Rodgers, Brady and Brees are top fifteen selections. After that, there is a bit of a drop to Stafford, Romo, Rivers, Newton, and the Manning Bros. not named Cooper. In your draft, watch what everyone else is doing. Have your Group A QB list ready to go when things get hot. If Peyton Manning is your target in the fifth round, play your draft that way. More importantly, if the funnier less successful Super Bowl brother is picked up prior to your fifth round target -be ready with your substitute. Rivers, Romo, or Eli would be a great alternative in that situation. Also, have a Group A2 plan ready if your "A" plan blows up on you. There is nothing wrong with picking up Big Ben or Matt Schaub in the seventh round. In fact, that may be the right mix for your 2012 championship.

Prepare early, prepare wise, prepare with a purpose.

Group B: This is my favorite group. Finding the value guy with upside in the fantasy football draft who elevates his performance like New England Patriots Tight End Rob Gronkowski did in 2011 can be as exhilarating as watching an American Bald Eagle swoop in and swipe an egg from a flock of seagulls on an Oregon beach in the summertime. It is rare, but it happens. Mapping out your hit list of guys to take fliers on in the middle rounds is a little research, some foresight, and some luck. This year, the class of guys likely to take over for Mr. Yo soy Fiesta are Titus Young, Denarius Moore, and Jacquizz Rodgers. All three play in above average offenses, have above average skill sets and have had a season to prove they can play in the NFL. The Group B strategy is to have a vision and hedge with a few guys at the skill positions with break out performance capability. You only need to be right on one out of the three to take your team from average to playoff bound.

Take some risk based on research.

Group C: The late round-best guy available who has performed at one time or another in the league. Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Peyton Hillis all have ADP’s of the eighth round or later right now. For various reasons, you should be careful with these guys. Mendenhall may have another twitter meltdown about Bin Laden (and he’s coming off knee surgery): Benson has been known to get into a few bar fights in his day, and Hillis may have had his character questioned for health reasons last year in Cleveland. However, at the right price, in the right round - you may have yourself a steal. The fantasy football season goes for a full 16 weeks (for me). Weeks 8-16 count in your standings as much as weeks 1-7. Prepare for it with some vision. Benson, Mendenhall and Hillis are running backs NFL coaches trust when they are on the field. With Jamal Charles coming off knee destruction surgery in Kansas City, Hill will get his opportunity. Currently, Benson is unsigned. You can bet Benson, who has rushed for over 1000 yards each of his last three season will end up in a system that we give him a chance to be productive. And Mendenhall? I’d be willing to draft and stash the former All Pro running back out of the University of Illinois with the idea of his carries increasing in the second half of the season.

You have a bench for a reason - think about it Spencer Pratt.

There you have it. Solid draft strategy based on Southwest Airlines passenger boarding philosophy, presented by LL Cool T.

Now go do your own damn research.

Until Next Time,

Craig Turley (LL Cool T)
@That_Dude_CT

Titus Young - 2012 Fantasy Football Sleeper?

2012-08-02T07:19:38-07:00

Originally posted at Kramerica Sports.

Generally, I do not like to go gangsta and rely on production from guys that are one night of making it rain* away from ending up in Roger Goodell’s office, but I am going to make an exception for the second year wide receiver of the Detroit Lions, Titus Young.

Young finished the 2011 season with similar stats (Young was targeted 85 times, resulting in 48 receptions, 607 yards, and 6 touchdowns) to Baltimore Ravens rising star wide receiver Torrey Smith, however, I expect the Boise State product to become the better of the two young up and coming receiving stars in 2012.

First, Titus Young plays opposite the NFL’s best wide receiver, Calvin Johnson. Megatron commands entire defensive schemes to slow him down. Huge advantage for Young.

Second, Young has Matthew Stafford throwing him the football. Stafford is the best young pure passing quarterback in the league. In 2011, Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns. The Lions offense was the fourth best scoring offense at 29.6 ppg in the NFL. The Lions also played out of the shotgun with three wide receiver sets 58% of the time in 2011.

Pass first, ask questions later.

In addition to having All Pro talent around him, Titus Young plays in a division once known as the black and blue division that has turned into a pass happy NFC North - with poor pass defenses. Six times in 2012, Young will benefit from playing the Vikings, Bears, and Packers secondaries. These three secondaries finished 26th, 28th, and 32nd respectively in pass defense in 2011.

Throw me the ball!

Going into 2012 draft preparation, expect for Young to be in the range from the 30th wide receiver selected to the 40th wide receiver selected.

Would you rather take an aging Randy Moss who flamed out two years ago and was absent in all of 2011, or take an up and coming 2nd year receiver in a pass first offense?

What about an established veteran in a new system like Pierre Garcon in Washington? I’ll take the up and coming receiver with an All Pro quarterback instead of the receiver changing systems to play with a rookie quarterback.

Fantasy football is all about looking into your Magic 8 ball and determining who is setup best for the present season. Past performance is great, but evaluating future performance wins championships.

If Young doesn’t work out, feel free to tweet and let me know you have Titus-itis. My hunch is you won’t be tweeting me, unless you want to thank me.

Until Next Time,

Craig Turley

*Young was suspended for nine games by his Boise State coach, Chris Peterson; punched a New Orleans Saints player in the face during the regular season last year; and punched teammate Louis Delmas when he wasn’t looking in this off season’s OTA’s.

Ryan Williams 2012 Preview

2012-07-18T21:42:28-07:00

Check out this article and other great fantasy football coverage at Kramerica Sports.

I feel like I’m almost back” - Ryan Williams (June 13, 2012)

Question marks and potential surrounds Ryan Williams, the 2nd year running back drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

The question marks are related to his health.

The potential is based off the memory of his 2009 college football season at Virginia Tech that resulted in Williams being named the 2009 ACC rookie of the year.

Ryan Williams is almost back from a ruptured patella tendon suffered in the 2011 preseason against the Green Bay Packers. The 38th selection overall from the 2011 NFL Draft has not played a single regular season snap for the Arizona Cardinals due to the season ending knee injury. Williams also saw limited action in the 2010 college football season due a slight tear of his right hamstring, which resulted in reduced playing time and him missing four games during his sophomore year for the Hokies.

Although Williams has been limited on the playing field since his dynamic 2009 ACC rookie of the year campaign, he does have top tier fantasy potential written all over him. Williams is a powerful, tenacious running back that rolled up 1655 yards rushing to go along with 21 touchdowns in his only full season as a Hokie. That alone give Arizona Cardinal fans and fantasy football owners hope.

Another promising piece to the Ryan Williams fantasy football puzzle is the tumultuous relationship between Arizona Cardinal starting running back Chris “Beanie” Wells and head coach Ken Whisenhunt. There have been numerous times over the past three seasons the Cardinal coaching staff have been frustrated with the former Ohio State star over his ability to stay on the field.

Like Williams, Wells is recovering from offseason knee surgery. Unlike Williams, Wells has had his toughness questioned by the Cardinals during this offseason. As recent as last week, Coach Whisenhunt challenged Wells to “bust his tail” over the next few weeks because other Cardinal running backs (see Ryan Williams) have looked good in recent OTA’s.

Coach Whisenhunt will not hesitate to go to Williams in key situations and has always held true to the philosophy the best players play. Additionally, given Williams success at finding the end zone when he was healthy at Virginia Tech, expect the 2nd year back to get some goal line opportunities in an above average Cardinal offense. Do not be surprised if the man who goes by the name @lilsweetness34 on twitter because a consistent fantasy scoring option this season.

Talent, tenaciousness and turmoil may be the proper mixture that pays above average dividends for 2012 fantasy football owners of Arizona Cardinal running back Ryan Williams.

Besides, anyone that pays tribute to the late great Walter Payton gets the benefit of the doubt in my rankings any day.

Until Next Time,

Craig Turley

H/T: Washington Post; Rotoworld

Who is at risk for a sophomore slump in the 2012 Fantasy Football season?

2012-07-15T17:38:47-07:00

You never know what you are going to get in a sophomore fantasy football player. For God’s sake, 85% of American don’t even know the dance moves to the National Anthem, so how do you expect to get things right in a fantasy football draft? I understand. I am here to help. Now lets break this dance party down with some fantasy football words of wisdom from CT.

Do you remember Steve Slaton?

Yes, Steve Slaton from West Virginia and former Houston Texan "star" running back -before Arian Foster.

Slaton burst onto the the scene for the Houston Texans in 2008 rushing for 1282 yards and 9 touchdowns. In 2009, Slaton was a hot commodity in all fantasy football formats as a first round selection. He rewarded those fantasizers with 437 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Steve Slaton that brought this particular lofty praise from fantasy football bulletin board legend fantasy4u in 2009: (fantasy4u and meatstick were legitimately the bulletin board names these clowns used)

“I agree with meatstick, Slaton is a better player that Brady strait up.” [sic]

First, don’t be a “meatstick.”

Second, don’t take advice from someone that answers to “meatstick.”

So who will have the 2012 Steve Slaton slump?

I’m here to help you - without the help of meatstick and fantasies4u.

The 2011 NFL season made Torrey Smith a familiar name in fantasy football circles. The wide receiver from the University of Maryland finished the season with 50 receptions, 841 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. This was good for an average of 8+ fantasy football points per game in standard scoring systems.

Not bad.

However, 2012 may not be as kind to those that were fortunate to have Torrey Smith in their starting lineups in week 3 and week 11 of the 2011 NFL season. Smith accumulated 311 yards and four of his seven touchdowns in those two weeks against the St. Louis Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. Two weeks, 50% of his fantasy football production. Last time I checked the NFL season was 16 games. So for those of you that consider Torrey Smith top 25 talent at the wide receiver spot, be careful. After the week 11 game against the Bengals, he had one game over 50 yards receiving. Smith undoubtedly possesses big game potential and he possesses the Houdini gene - which makes him my top candidate to slump in 2012.

Who will be this year's Milli Vanilli in NFL Fantasy Football circles?

Another great candidate for a sophomore slump in 2012 is Demarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys. Murray put up excellent rookie running back numbers that included 897 yards rushing to go along with two touchdowns on 164 carries. Pretty good production for the former Oklahoma Sooner star.

So what is not to like?

Two rushing touchdowns on the season and one gigantic game against the St. Louis Rams. On October 23, 2011, Demarco Murray set a Dallas Cowboy rushing record with 253 rushing yards on 25 carries. DeMarco has the scent of Milli Vanilli all over him - so let someone else Blame it on the Rain.

It would be too easy to pick on Cam Newton as my 3rd and final sophomore slump choice.

I’m not going to do that.

My 3rd and final sophomore slump candidate is New England Patriot QB Ryan Mallett.

Most would argue Mallett could only improve on his zero completion on zero attempts for zero yards in 2011. I dare to differ.

If Ryan Mallett is playing in 2012, that means either Tom Brady is injured, Bill Belichick has gotten soft, or my main man meatstick was right about Tom Brady all along and Steve Slaton is better. Regardless of the reason, Mallett will have no impact on the 2012 fantasy football season, much to the dismay of Texarkana, Texas town folk.

The bottom line?

You don’t have to take your fantasy football advice from me, however, my advice is probably better than fantasies4u and meatstick.

Anyhow, I need to go relax in my jacuzzi filled with scotch and slip into my bunny rabbit one-sy for a good night’s rest.

Until Next Time,

Craig Turley
@That_Dude_CT

2012 Fantasy Football Preview: Ryan Tannehill

2012-07-08T15:19:18-07:00

Temperature reaching 112 today in Phoenix. Please. Make. It. Stop.

Speaking of hot, how about Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback wife, Lauren Ufer? If Ryan Tannehill was being judged by Vanderbilt Commodore Head Football Coach James Franklin, he would certainly be one to watch in Fantasy Football 2012.

However, he is not.

While Tannehill’s successful courting of the uber hot Lauren Ufer counts for something in this world, it will not count for much when it comes to your fantasy football leagues in 2012. Unlike top picks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffith III, Tannehill will have a difficult time scoring in all fantasy football formats.

The rookie quarteback from Texas A & M will have to compete for playing time against Matt Moore and David Garrard early. I do expect the eighth overall selection to take over for the Dolphins by mid season, as Garrard's health is a concern and Moore is a journeyman quarterback that doesn't figure into the Dolphins long term plans.

Tannehill converted from wide receiver to quarterback mid way through the 2010 Aggie season. Expect Tannehill's lack of experience to be exploited early in his career as he is still learning the position after only 19 college starts.

The QB will have his former college coach, Mike Sherman, as the Dolphins offensive coordinator.

Tannehill is worth the reach in dynasty leagues, however, he will not be much more than a bye week option later in the 2012 season in standard scoring leagues.

Until Next Time,

Craig Turley
@That_Dude_CT