Fantasy Football FTW: Fantasy Football Advice and Stats Columns

Start Sit Week 9

2015-11-07T00:14:00.001-08:00

We have entered the final half of the season. The ninth week of the season finds six teams on bye, many players injured last week, and the home stretch finding us. Last week we were pretty solid on our choices for the start/sit. Ladarius Green got hurt, but the other 9 players written about were 8/9 in the direction they were suggested. Come inside and check out the Week 9 start/sit advice.

Start

Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Hurns has a great match up this week against the Jets. After watching the Jets get torched last week by the second and third receivers last week, Hurns stock is looking up. I would expect to see Hurns have a productive week and bring you some value this week. Get Hurns in your lineups this week.

Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins

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Thompson returns from injury this week to a good matchup for his particular abilities. Thompson is the passing downs back, and with Washington likely to be behind in this game, Thompson is likely to be a recipient of playing against a vastly superior team this week. I would start Thompson in ppr leagues that will support his role in a passing game.

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints

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Snead had two bad games leading up to his 6-70-2 performance in week 8, but was a star in week 8 with 70 yards receiveing and two scores last week. This week agains the Titans I would expect a lot from the young wide out for the Saints. I recommend getting him in your lineup this week.

Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

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ers
Miller has a great chance to put up some solid points this week against a Raiders squad that has given up the most points per game to tight ends this year. In Ben Roethlisberger's second game back from his injury, I would expect to see him take advantage of what the Raiders are offering, and the answer is likely to be Miller. Start him this week.

Jacob Tamme, TE, Atlanta Falcons

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Tamme is not a great player, but he is in line for a great match up. Tamme has been a monster when Leonard Hankerson is not in the lineup, and this week that seems likely. Tamme has scored well and caught a lot of passes in these games. He is an easy start if Hankerson is out this week. Fire him up if Hankerson is out this week.

Sit

TJ Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Yeldon faces off against the defense that allows the lowest amount of Fantasy points per game to the running back position. I have Yeldon in a few of my leagues, and he is squarely on my bench this week.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts

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Gore has had a tough season. The Colts have had a rough road, and this week I can't see him doing much. The Broncos have a great defense and I can't see Gore being better than this whole defense this week. I fear for the Colts.

James Jones, WR, Green Bay

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Jones had a monster start of the season, but his unsustainable start of the year is reaching a head. With Montgomery returning and facing the top tier defense of the Panthers this week, I can't see myself starting Jones this week. If you didn't trade him yet, I think you have already missed the boat with Jones.

Deangelo Williams, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Williams was fantastic the first two games of the season. With the loss of LeVeon Bell last week, it has become Deangelo's job. The Raiders are the 19th ranked defense in points allowed to running backs. I wouldn't start Deangelo this week.

Still all the 49ers

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I can't see myself playing a 49ers player for Fantasy this week. The RB situation is bad. The WR situation is also bad. This week is more of a play for the local league than the numbers seem to make good.

So as we finish up an evening of beer and writing, these are my players for the start/sit article for week 9.
Come see us next year to make some progress.

Start Sit Week 8

2015-10-31T04:00:00.000-07:00

It's been a while. I've missed you. Have you missed me? Well we find ourselves here in the eighth week of the NFL season. It's moving so fast. So many of our preseason guesses have moved into the right or wrong category. We are turning the corner toward the playoffs. Hopefully you are still worried about making them and bringing home the ship.

Well I am here to help. Bringing back the start and sit article from the dead for Halloween. Giving you some insight on what I think are some good match ups for some of your players this week. Let's dive in.

Start

Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers

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Green has once again found himself with a tremendous opportunity. The start of the season presented one as well with the suspension to Antonio Gates. And now Gates is likely to miss his second game in a row. Last week Green made the best of his opportunity scoring on one of his five catches for

45 yards. The Chargers have had a big aerial attack this season, and that is just how you beat the Ravens. Green is a must start this week.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

Stewart has a fantastic schedule ahead of him, and this week starts off the rest of the year with a top tier game. Facing the Colts on Monday night, Stewart squares off against the 7th worst defense in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Indy is allowing an average of over 100 yards and more than a touchdown per week. Coming off of a big game where he ran for 125 yards last week against the Eagles, make sure you play Stewart this week.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

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Diggs has become a rookie sensation. After missing the first three games of the season, Diggs has made his presence known in the last three Vikings games. Averaging over 100 yards and 6.3 catches per game, Diggs is a great play for a PPR or Standard league. The Vikings face off against the Bears this week, and their 10th worst rank in Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Expect there to be a lot of opportunity for Diggs this week.

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Floyd and the Cardinals face off against the Cleveland Browns and their lackluster passing defense. The Browns don't allow a huge amount of yards per game, 242, but they do allow a lot of touchdowns. So far on the season the Browns have allowed 11 touchdowns through the air. This sets up the passing game of the Cards well. Another possible benefit for Floyd is the status of John Brown. Brown is questionable this week, and it has been rumored that the team will rest him this week to get him healthy. If Brown is out, Floyd is a Halloween weekend monster.

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints

Snead had a good start to his season, and then cooled a bit in the last game. This week Snead and the Saints will face the beat up New York Giants defense and their 30th ranked pass defense. The Giants are allowing 288 yards per game and 10 scores on the season. Snead should find a nice match up awaiting him this week.

Sit

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns

Crowell has been extremely inconsistent so far this season. The worst bit of news for him is that there are now three mouths to feed again in Cleveland. Crowell has not been making the most of his touches in recent weeks either. In his defense there have been some difficult match ups, but Crowell has lost a lot of his share of touches to both Robert Turbin and Duke Johnson. This week the Browns face off against the Arizona Cardinals and their eighth ranked run defense. The Cards only allow 97 yards per game, and only three touchdowns on the ground through seven games this year. I can't play Crowell on any of my teams this week.

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

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Dez has been out since the first game of the season with a broken bone in his foot. This week he participated in practice in a limited fashion. The Cowboys have been snake bitten so far this year, losing not only Bryant, but then Tony Romo the next week. The quarterback situation has been a mess, and now here comes Seattle. It is likely that Richard Sherman would roll with Dez on Sunday if he plays, and I won't want any part of that match up playing for me. I have put my money where my mouth is on this one too. I traded for Dez in a few leagues after he got hurt, and I am not even considering playing him this week. I want to see how he looks, and see him playing against a different defesne.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders

Murray has the misfortune of facing the top ranked run defense of the New York Jets this week. The Jets have allowed 71 yards per game, and only two scores on the season. So far this year Murray has only had one monster game. There is not a lot of positive feeling about this game for me about the ability of Oakland to run. I have Murray on the bench in leagues where I can afford to bench him.

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

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Cooper is the other side of the terrible match up the Raiders have this week. Cooper will draw the coverage of Darrelle Revis, who is a top shut down corner. Cooper has been able to take advantage of his good match ups this season, and has not done much in the harder ones. In week five Cooper faced Denver and their tough secondary, and had four catches for 45 yards. Week four saw Cooper face the oddly shut down in yards and allow touchdowns pass defense of the Chicago Bears. Cooper followed the trend, with only 49 yards, but a score. So while he may one day be an all time great, and is quite polished as a rookie, Cooper will likely be shut down this week, and you should shut him down too.

All the 49ers

There is not a player on the 49ers I am excited about playing this week. Facing the Rams in St. Louis is a daunting task. Now add to that the fact that Carlos Hyde will not be playing. Colin Kaepernick has been mostly terrible this year. Anquan Boldin hurt his hamstring in practice on Thursday and might not play. The offense will rely on Reggie Bush, who can't stay healthy, and Torrey Smith. I don't want anything to do with any player from the 49ers this week.

So there you have it. Welcome back to the FTW blog, and thanks for your time. I hope in the next few weeks to continue to provide you some strategy and advice artilces. Feel free to find me on twitter, or email me any questions you have. Make sure to check out my injury article on socalledfantasyexperts.com. Thanks for reading.

Start Sit Week 4

2015-10-02T04:00:00.000-07:00

Image Source: foxsports.com

Welcome in once again to another start sit column. I'm writing this after having watched the abomination that was another Thursday night football game. The offense in these games is painful to watch. It is a marginal product at its best, and is not safe for the players. But the money will keep them coming back. I digress.
So for the fourth week of the season there are some great match-ups, and some not so good. This is, as always what we strive to unearth every week. So let us take a look at the players who we should start and sit this week.

Start

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets
Ivory was active last week for the Jets, but did not get a touch. This week Ivory has said that he feels much better than last week, and he has been participating in practice. The Jets play in the London game this week, and will kick off at 9:30 am eastern. This will require you to make an early decision on him, but as long as he is active, I would start him. The Dolphins defense has been a huge disappointment so far this season. Allowing 145 yards per game on the ground so far this season, Miami is like a matador to opposing running backs. Ole, and start Ivory.

All the Bears and Raiders
Obviously this is meant for the top tier starters for these teams. I would include in this Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffery, Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, and of course Martellus Bennett. With Gronk out, many fantasy analysts have Bennett as the top tight end this week. The Raiders can't stop the tight end. This is evidenced by them allowing a career day to Gary Barnidge last week, which in turn allowed me to win a bet where I now get to kick the loser in the face. Defense will not be at a premium in this game, and I would start all my players in this game with confidence.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
Foster has been out since the preseason with a groin injury. It has become possible that he will get into the action this week for the Texans. If Foster is active, he is a must start in my opinion. Foster usually will not come back from an injury unless he is ready to go. Houston will face the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons are middle of the pack in yards allowed on the ground, but they have given up six rushing scores through three weeks. If you drafted Foster this year you have been waiting for him to come back. Bask in his glow while you can.

Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills
Williams has been a very bright spot for the Bills so far this season. So far on the season Williams is averaging 62 yards per game on the ground, but he has also scored a touchdown every week so far. The Giants are actually the second ranked run defense by yards allowed, but I believe that is a bit of fools gold. The Bills are a good run blocking unit. I expect the rookie to have a solid week.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Gordon has had positive and negative press in the Fantasy community so far this season. He has not been able to pass block, and a lot of his role has been taken by Danny Woodhead. This week the Chargers and Gordon take aim at the worst run defense in the league, both this year and last. The Browns have allowed 158 yards per game so far this season. I expect Gordon to be able to gash them, and hopefully get himself a nice long score. Gordon should be a solid RB2 or flex play for your squad this week.

Sit

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
Martin has opened the season with three great match ups this season. The problem is that he has looked every bit of the Martin we saw over the last two years. Martin has been unable to take advantage of his beneficial schedule early this season. This week Martin squares off against the fourth ranked by yards run defense of the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is only allowing 75.7 yards per game. The offensive line of the Bucs is not very good either. This seems to be the perfect storm to keep Martin's numbers down this week.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
I have lost my faith in Miller and the Dolphins. Miller has been abysmal so far this season, and the Dolphins have been under-performing on both sides of the ball. The Jets have a good defense, even though they are middle of the pack in yards allowed per week. The Dolphins have not blocked well, passed well, and definitely haven't run well. I am not interested in starting any piece of their offense outside of Jarvis Landry, and that is only because of volume in a PPR.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Hyde looked amazing on the first Monday night of the season. Then he got banged up during Week 2. And in Week 3, the box was stacked. The rest of the league knows that Colin Kaepernick is not a good quarterback. They are willing to stack the box and let Kaep throw and force him to beat them. You can expect this to remain the case for the rest of the season. This week against Green Bay I expect the same, and with coverage for the Packers being pretty good, they can afford to push forward and force the issue.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
Evans has been out or a decoy in two of three games this season. So how can I tell you to sit him? Josh Norman. The corner for the Panthers has been making his case to be the next shutdown corner in the NFL, and he is making it well. With a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston, and facing off against one of the better defensive units in the league, I am thinking that I will take my chances with whoever I was playing while he was out.

Defenses to stream

Green Bay Packers are a solid streaming choice this week. The 49ers almost fooled us in Week 1. But their true colors have shined through since. I expect a solid game from the Packers, and even though the game is in San Francisco, I am starting the Packers defense this week.

San Diego Chargers face off against the Cleveland Browns. Possessing a good secondary will help to control Travis Benjamin. The Browns have been a bad running unit and I can't see this changing much this week. I think the Chargers at home this week are a good option for a defensive streamer.

Quarterbacks to stream

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets is facing off against the middle of the road pass defense of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed six passing touchdowns on the season. If Fitzpatrick has all of his weapons back, he is a solid streaming option this week.

Brandon Weeden, QB, Dallas Cowboys faces off against a New Orleans Saints defense that has allowed six touchdowns on the season. The Saints have not intercepted a pass on the season, a good thing for a quarterback that is a backup. With another week under his belt, and a chance to get more comfortable with his abilities and limitations, I can see using Weeden for an emergency fill in this week.

We reach the end of another start sit for Week 4. It's crazy to think that we are already in the fourth week of the season. It's going so fast. All the buildup of the off-season and drafting has come down to this. Take this information and use it for good this week. Good luck!

Start Sit Week Three

2015-09-25T04:00:00.000-07:00

The Week Three slate is underway. Game on! The Giants played a great all-around game on Thursday night, taking it to the Redskins. OBJ looked good. Reuben Randle had the game of his life. And Washington was handled. Their offense was stuck in the mud. Now we head into the weekend slate of games. All teams still playing this week for the last time until Week 12.

So here we are again. Meeting here is becoming commonplace these days. I don’t mind. Always happy to talk about Fantasy and give you my thoughts about players and their situations. Who do I like this week? Who do I not like? What defense am I interested in? What quarterbacks can be streamed this week? Well let me tell you what I think.

Image Source: nflspinzone.com

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona

Get used to Brown being on this list. He is a great player in a great situation. As long as Carson Palmer, the offensive line, and Brown stay healthy, he’s pretty much a weekly starter in this offense. Brown has had decent stats so far, and a monster is coming. On top of his nine catches for 91 yards and a score, Brown has drawn two pass interference calls. This week the Cardinals play a 49ers defense that was lit up by the Steelers last week. Still reeling, I don’t believe the 49ers are the team from Week One, and are actually the leaky boat that played Week Two. A big game is in the works for John Brown. Don’t let him have it from your bench.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle

Graham was missing in action last week in Green Bay. One catch on two targets and one leak that he is pissed. This week the lowly Chicago Bears come to town to face an 0-2 Seahawks squad that will be looking to make a statement to the league. Chicago is weak on both offense and defense. The walking wounded roster of the Bears is likely to be missing Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. The defense for the Bears is not in much better shape. This is the reset season. Ctrl+alt+delete on the whole team. The defense is a 4-3 squad being made to play in a 3-4 scheme. This preseason I saw Jared Allen dropping into coverage. Not something I would want to see from my team. This leads me to want to play Graham this week. I expect Seattle to score at will. And if they get in close, expect them to try to feed Graham, pissed or not.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland

Murray faces a Browns team this week that was dead last in run defense last season. Even with additions this year, they still aren’t a good unit. In their first game of the season the Browns allowed Chris Ivory to run for 91 yards and two scores. Last week they allowed Dexter McCluster to run for 98 yards. Murray had 65 yards on the ground last week and a score. I expect to see him run a lot this week. I have him inserted in my starting lineups where I have him, and so should you.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis

Gore has some of the Fantasy world concerned. Not this guy. I had no desire to have any shares of Gore this season, yet ended up with him on multiple squads. At some point a value is too good to pass up. At this point I have absolutely no idea what to think of Gore. The first two weeks of the season were against some very good defensive units. The Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets were 11^th and fifth against the run last season. The schedule gets a bit better for the next two weeks, and if you have Gore and are ever going to play him, this is the week. Don’t let his good matchups go to waste and fire him up this week.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver

Anderson was a very early draft pick, and he has not met expectations. A toe injury and some very bad offensive line play have hampered the efforts of Anderson so far this season. Normally I wouldn’t be telling you that a matchup with the Lions is just what the doctor ordered. The Lions were the top ranked run defense last season. But this year is different. Suh is gone. Levy is out. And the Lions are letting you run. I am a staunch supporter of Anderson, in fact completing a trade for him in a league today, and writing an article in support of trading for him you can read here. With 10 days off, Anderson has had time to heal and has been a full participant in practice so far this week. Get him in your lineup this week.

Sit

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Miller has been pretty much a disappointment so far this season. Miller left last week with an ankle injury. What he did before that wasn’t very impressive. Only rushing for a total of 67 yards in the first two weeks, and catching six passes for 50 yards is not a good start. Miller has returned to practice on Thursday, but his matchup leaves a lot to be desired. The Buffalo Bills travel to take on the Dolphins this week. The Bills had a stout run defense last year and shut down the Colts in Week One. Week Two the Patriots solved the riddle to an extent, but Dion Lewis only had 40 yards rushing. I can’t see a banged up Miller doing a lot on the ground for the Dolphins, and if you have another option get him on your bench.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago

Forte might be the only healthy guy on the Bears offense. Don’t think that this fact will escape the 0-2 Seahawks. The box will likely be stacked against Forte until likely starter Jimmy Clausen makes them back off. Forte is going to have a long day, with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery highly likely to be out this week. I would sit Forte if you have a capable replacement on your bench.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia

Murray has been bad. It’s not all his fault. The offensive line play has been atrocious. The quarterback play has been worse. And the offense is a giant pile of smoldering garbage. Expect it to erupt into flames on Sunday this week. In addition to the issues the Eagles have been having, Murray left practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. This sit recommendation might be moot by Sunday if Murray cannot go. And we haven’t even considered the matchup. Say hello to the Jets. Yeah, the ones who shut down the Colts high powered offense last week. If Murray plays, I would be expecting the status quo of the season. Sit your Murray shares this week.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

Brees and the Saints offense have not played well so far. And now Brees has a shoulder injury that might affect his throwing and distance. Weakness in the shoulder is a side effect of a rotator cuff contusion. This does not make me feel confident in an offense that has struggled in scoring so far this season. And the Saints draw the Carolina Panthers and their stout defensive line and secondary. With a loss of identity apparent, a tough matchup in front of him, and an injury to his throwing shoulder, I have to suggest benching Brees this week.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay

Martin has had some favorable matchups in the first two weeks of the season. Sadly he hasn’t done a lot with them. On 32 carries so far this season, Martin has had only 130 yards. Three catches for 22 yards are not much of a boost. And these numbers came against the Titans and the Saints. This week the Bucs face the 10^th ranked run defense from last season in the Houston Texans. The front seven for the Texans is a very strong unit. I fail to see how a bad matchup against a good defense is going to be the breakout that Martin owners are looking for. Sit Martin this week.

Defenses to stream

New England Patriots

The Pats play the Jaguars this week. Last season a streaming strategy was to get who the Jags were playing. I have not seen a reason to change this yet.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons face a Cowboys squad that is reeling after losing their top wide receiver and their quarterback in the first two weeks of the season. Despite a stout line their running game has not been impressive. I want to play the defense that plays the Cowboys until either Romo returns or they prove me wrong.

Quarterbacks to Stream

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee

Mariota had a great debut in Week One. And then he came back down to earth last week. But Mariota is accurate, and accuracy is not something everyone has. This week facing the Colts, I could see Mariota having a good game. Consider him as a streaming option this week.

Ryan Fitzpartick, QB, New York Jets

Fitzy has been solid so far this season. He isn’t a huge fantasy scorer, but he won’t kill you either. Averaging 15.75 points per game is a good fill in for your quarterback. This week against the Eagles I would love to be playing Fitzpatrick in as many leagues as I can. Hopefully Eric Decker can get back on the field this week to give Fitzpatrick some extra help. I love Fitzy this season as a good option to stream.

So this ends the start sit article for Week Three. I hope that it has been helpful in making your decisions a little more educated. Make sure to check out my injury report articles using thislink. You can follow me on twitter, and sign up to receive notices when I post a new article at the top of this page. Thank you for your time and reading what I have to say. Good luck in your leagues this week.

Trade Targets: CJ Anderson

2015-09-24T13:25:00.001-07:00

Well we are about two weeks into the NFL season. As I sit writing this, we all are awaiting kickoff between the Giants and Redskins for week three. Some narratives have come true, some look false. The time has come to wade through these and find the diamonds in the rough that have just gotten off to a rough start.

Last season I wrote an article about Eddie Lacy after the first three weeks of the season. He faced off against three top five defenses to start his season, and was seen to be underperforming. But the reality was, those defenses he faced were good. It was a brutal start to the year. And if you found an owner willing to trade you Lacy, you got a great performance from him the rest of the way. The deal I made was trading Alshon Jeffery for Eddie Lacy straight up. Jeffery was my WR4, and I could afford the deal.

Image source: denverpost.com

So after two weeks of the season, who is a guy that we can take a look at buying low on?

Who has a favorable schedule moving forward? When should we pounce? Let’s take a look at all these factors together now.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver has been a major disappointment. I was in love with the narrative for the Denver offense this season. Aging quarterback, stud tight end gone, and new coach who wants to run the ball a lot, what’s not to love. Add to that a defense that can hold their opponents down and make the strategy work. It all sounds so great.

Then, reality sets in.

Anderson hurts his toe in game one. Peyton looks terrible in the Kubiak offense. He can’t run and looks every bit of his age. The offensive line looks like they can’t block at all. Through two weeks of the season Anderson has 56 yards on 24 carries and five catches for 21 yards. Not good numbers. Is there any good news? Well in Week 1 they played Baltimore in a defensive brawl. Baltimore has been a tough defense against the run. Kansas City in week two proved a tough match up for the Broncos all around. But in a tale of two halves the Broncos were able to move the ball later in the game, and CJ was the back on the field.

So what does the upcoming schedule hold for CJ and the Broncos? Well before the season I would have told you that the Broncos face a fairly tough start, but also have a Top 5 run schedule this year. Kansas City was an outlier based on their stats from last year, but the next opponent for the Broncos is the Lions, and without Deandre Levy and Ndamukong Suh plugging up the middle, the Lions have not been that strong against the run in their first two games.

After that game the schedule really opens up for the Broncos on the ground. The next seven games are against teams that were in the bottom half of yards allowed on the ground last season. The Patriots are the eighth game out after the Lions, and one of only two more Top 10 run defenses from last season. The Fantasy playoff run consists of games against the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals for weeks 14-16.

I am recommending taking a shot at trading for CJ Anderson in your leagues.

If you have a surplus of wide receivers on your bench, you might be able to give your fourth or fifth best wide receiver to a team that is likely in need of an infusion of points. If you are running back heavy, you might be able to move one of them for Anderson.

Basically I see the tide turning for Anderson. If the offensive line can gel, and Kubiak and Manning can find a common ground to run an offense that can succeed, Anderson can truly be a diamond in the rough for your fantasy team. Take a run at his owner and see what you can make happen. Bargain shopping in week 2 can make you a champion.

Waiver Wire For Week 3:

2015-09-22T20:33:00.000-07:00

The first two weeks of the NFL season have been brutal to the ranks of Fantasy Football. Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Eddie Lacy, Eric Decker, the list goes on. So many of your Fantasy relevant players have gotten hurt. So what are you to do? Hit the wire. Fill those rosters with players that might help you win. Let's find some of those guys together.

It's all about the Benjamins

Travis Benjamin, WR, Cleveland has had a pretty good start to the season scoring 4 times in the first two weeks. Two long receiving touchdowns on Sunday and a punt return 74 yards for a score. Benjamin is a stash and wait kind of player for me. I find him much more desirable in leagues that give points for return yardage. His value may be tied to the ability of Johnny Manziel keeping the starting job. I am not ready to start him, but I could see him on my roster if I need a big upside player.

Starks me up

James Starks, RB, Green Bay has the chance this week to take over the running load in the Green Bay offense. With Eddie Lacy banged up with an ankle injury in week two, Starks came on strong to help the Packers take down the Seahawks. If Lacy remains out his week, Starks steps right into the job with a high ability to succeed.

Jonesin'

Matt Jones, RB, Washington has proven his ability in the Washington run game. Jones had 19 carries for 123 yards and two scores, plus three catches for 23 yards. Jones has wedged his way into the run game for Washington, and I am not expecting that to change anytime soon. Washington will be perfectly happy to have an effective tandem at running back and try to win with defense and clock control. Grab some Matt Jones.

What you Snead

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans had a lot of buzz during the preseason. Snead hit last week for the Saints, Willie caught four passes for 44 yards and a score in week two. In week one Snead only had one catch for 63 yards, so he may be inconsistent. But the New Orleans offense must try something new. At 0-2 and now possibly without Drew Brees this week, something has to change in the Saints offense. Snead just might be the benefactor of this.

Mr. Rodgers neighborhood

Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay was my secret weapon in some of my leagues this season. Once Jordy Nelson went down with a torn ACL, the Packers were going to need some help in the red zone. The reason he was my secret weapon? Well I crunched the numbers from last year and found that Green Bay had the third best schedule for points allowed to tight ends. The only issue was they don't usually use a tight end. Well, Nelson out helped him with that. Last week Rodgers caught both a touchdown pass, and a two point conversion en route to a 3-23-1 night. Not a huge evening, but he was also targeted again for a deep pass and another time in the end zone. So now my secret is out, and you can benefit.

Neon Dion

Dion Lewis, RB, New England has been a monster the first two games of the season. Through the first two weeks of the season Lewis has 22 rushes for 109 yards and a score, and has 10 catches for 149 yards. The bad news is that he has a fumbling issue. The good news, he has still gotten in the game. As hard as it is to trust a Patriots running back, he hasn't come off the field after the fumbles, and Brady has talked him up. If he is still available in your leagues, add him to your roster.

Quarterbacks to stream Week 3

Ryan Fitzpatrick plays at home against the defensively hapless Eagles.
Marcus Mariota plays at home against the Colts. Indy is down corners on defense, and if they don't get them back it could be a great day for Mariota.
Nick Foles plays at home against the Steelers. Not sure who he is throwing to, but the Steelers won't stop it.

Defenses to stream Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals head into Baltimore. The Baltimore offense is no great shakes this year, and I wouldn't expect a ton from them.
Cleveland Browns host the Oakland Raiders. Cleveland has decent corner play and a front line that should start to gel soon. The Raiders just aren't good, yet. They seem to be heading in the right direction, but have a ways to go.

Week Two Start Sit

2015-09-18T04:00:00.000-07:00

Well it has been a slow few weeks as real life has caught up with me. Lots of busy things happening. Drafts were amazing. Had a great time, and have some great teams. I hope the same has befallen you as well. So now we have a full week in the bank. It’s time to look at the best plays and worst plays we find this week. So let’s take a look at this week’s start/sit.

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona is facing his second good match up in a row. After performing fairly well in Week One, with four catches on seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, Brown is once again a guy I am sliding into my flex positions this week. Facing the Chicago Bears in Week Two, Brown finds a favorable situation ahead. The Bears gave up three touchdowns through the air last week. In the 2014 season the Bears were 30^th in passing yards allowed for the season. I expect the issues with the Bears passing defense to continue this week. Get Brown in your lineup.

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona is leading the attack again this week for the Cardinals. Palmer had a superb opening game to the season, throwing for 307 yards and 3 scores. Palmer is a good enough quarterback to take advantage of a defense that is weak in the passing game. Expect him to do more of the same this week. If you are lucky and planned the start of your season, you can stack Palmer and Brown this week and double your pleasure. Palmer is a great start for you this week.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee is a surprise addition to this list. I never thought I'd say that after the 2014 season, and the tumultuous offseason at the running back position in Tennessee. Sankey had a fantastic performance in the new and seemingly improved offense of the Titans. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was fantastic in his NFL debut last week, and Sankey was also impressive. This week Sankey and the Titans will face off against the hapless Cleveland Browns. Last season the Browns gave up the most yards per game on the ground. The Browns picked up right where they left off allowing 154 yards in their first game of the season. If you see Sankey hanging out on your waiver wire and are in need of a running back this week, snatch him up and get him in your lineup.

Steve Smith Sr, WR, Baltimore squares off against the not improved defense of the Oakland raiders. The Ravens faced the Broncos in a clash of good defensive units last week. This week, the Ravens offense will have a much better time of it. The Raiders gave up 270 yards and 2 passing touchdowns last week to the Cincinnati Bengals. This bodes well for the likes of Smith Sr. Look for him to atone for dropping a touchdown last week. Get Smith Sr. in your lineups.

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets is a great second receiver for an NFL team. The good news about that is he will likely not get the top corner coverage a lot this year now that the Jets have a number one guy. This week the Jets face the sub-par defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The colts didn’t give up a huge amount of passing yards in the first week of the season, but they did give up a long score to Percy Harvin. Expect that the top corner, Vontae Davis, will be on Brandon Marshall. This leads me to believe that Decker is primed to have himself a solid game. Start him if you got him.

Sit

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots was suspended for the first week of the season so we haven’t seen him on the field yet in regular season action. His first game back is against the stout defense of the Buffalo Bills. The narrative being bounced around twitter and the podcast circuit is that the Patriots will attack the Bills defense with short passing. This seems to make sense with some of the personnel the Pats feature. If this is in fact what Bill Belichick does with his game plan, this doesn’t play well for Blount. Blount is not the best pass catching back the pats have. Along with the possible bad game plan for Blount, Buffalo is very good against the run. The Bills allowed just over 100 yards on the ground per game last season, and in their first game of this season they held the Colts to 64 rushing yards. I’m sitting Blount this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts looked like an old, washed up man last week against the Bills. This week assuming he gets the top corner his opponent has if TY Hilton is out, we will welcome Johnson to Revis Island. I can’t imagine any situation where Revis has two functioning legs and can’t shut down Johnson. The best hope for him is if Donte Moncrief torches the Jets on a few plays and they shift the coverage to Moncrief instead. But this assumes that Johnson is ready for the challenge and steps up to it. I am not looking to take that chance myself and would sit Andre Johnson this week.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders had a decent game for one where his team was never even close to competitive. The good news is he got seven catches in the game last week. This week Murray and the Raiders face the stiff Baltimore Ravens defense. Baltimore only gave up 69 yards rushing last week against the Broncos. This might seem like it is due to the mess that has been the Broncos offensive line, but they were stout last year as well. In the 2014 campaign the Ravens only allowed 88 yards rushing per game and eight touchdowns on the season. This makes me want to put Murray on my bench this week.

TJ Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars had 51 rushing yards in his first NFL start. The positives about this are that he got four yards per carry, and that he also caught three passes. This was a game against Carolina, a usually strong defense, but they were missing Star Lotulelei in the middle of that defensive line. This week doesn’t get any easier than last week, squaring off against the Miami Dolphins and their scary defense. The Dolphins did give up a lot of yards in game one of the season, but that was against an actually decent run blocking line of Washington. The Jags line is not that good. I don’t see good things for Yeldon this week and am sitting him in the leagues I own him in.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts squares off against the New York Jets this week. Another team with a strong defensive line, the Jets only allowed 104 yards last week to the Browns, but 58 of those yards were given up to the quarterbacks of the browns. That means that the running backs only gained 46 yards. Gore looked old, and actually left the game with cramps. Gore had 8 carries for 31 yards and 2 catches last week. I am not feeling too good about his chances this week and would bench him for a better option.

It feels good to be back. The first week of the season was amazing. Happy to bring you some advice and insights into who to start and sit in your leagues. Check back for more articles in the near future and read some of my other work at socalledfantasyexperts.com and fakepigskin.com. Thanks for reading and good luck in week two!

Auction Values and Strategy

2015-08-31T05:00:00.000-07:00

Iconic rock band Van Halen said it best with the classic rock track "Everybody Wants Some" back in 1980. Granted some of you may not have be born yet, so I may be carbon dating myself for this purpose. If you've ever heard the chorus to the relatively ancient tune, after the title line is sung it's followed by David Lee Roth squealing "I want some too!"

Image source: newyork.cbslocal.com

When it comes to fantasy football auctions, team managers want value. To which Roth asks, "Baby how 'bout you?"

The song has become a soundtrack for me every fantasy football draft season, and I would rather have it turn out my way than the 80's movie in which it's featured, Better Off Dead. Most consider the auction draft intimidating, and my first season playing fantasy football I agreed. I was invited to play with some former high school buddies that were looking to replace a team manager that had gotten fed up with league politics and quit. Not knowing what I was in for, I proceeded to overpay for players and barely filled out a competitive roster by the time auction was finished. My season was tanked by the choice of over bidding on an oft injured Rashard Mendenhall, then blowing all of my free agent budget on Isaac Redman and a young Jonathan Dwyer; all of whom got injured at some point. It stung so much that I forsook auction drafts altogether for years, also most leagues I was in weren't doing them, until last year.

In this article I'll cover some auction strategy and a few players that could be value plays and help you win in your leagues this season. In any draft, you're not going to enjoy setting your roster every week if you have guys that you don't enjoy rooting for, so it's important to budget your loot accordingly to allow you to fill positions with the studs that you want. A way to do this is to tier your player rankings at each position. Most of you should already be doing this for your snake drafts, the difference being placing dollar amounts on guys instead of their average draft position.

I recommend using an auction value calculator,

then raising the dollar amounts for the players you really want from there, but try to keep it within reason. Obviously spending over a quarter of your budget on one guy means you are going to have to count on some major bargains in the latter part of the auction. Use the cheat sheet as a guideline, keeping in mind other league mates may have the same prices on players that you do, and won't stop bidding until someone gives up. Know when to concede for the greater good of your team, a true squad goal.

Player nomination strategies

A classic auction strategy is to nominate the high ranking players that you don't like as much as everyone else in your league. You increase your odds for getting players by ultimately reducing the number of owners that can bid, because they're either filled at the position or they're low on dough. I've been in draft rooms where owners don't spend a dollar for the first five or so player nominations, while I was throwing loot like it was a strip club. None of that this season. That's what the mocks were for.

Jeremy Hill went for $1 in one of my leagues last year and was almost the last player nominated, and I of course had spent $25 on Giovanni Bernard. The tip here is to keep your eyes peeled for late nominated players with upside. In my experience these players are handcuff running backs, but can come from any position, including individual defensive players, IDP. There is also a lot of value to be had from players who come into the season injured.

Three value picks for 2015

Eli Manning $6 - Absolutely love the bad comedian with cable this year. McAdoo's offense led to a career high in completion percentage last year, and has most of his weapons back. Yes, Reuben Randle included. A favorable schedule make him hard to pass up.

Marvin Jones $1- Back and healthy, Jones could be a major steal if he continues his current progression throughout camp and the preseason.

Victor Cruz $3 - How about a comeback from one of the worst injuries you can possibly have? He could be the first. I believe in him.

Thanks for reading and I hope this gives some insight for your fantasy endeavors. Oh yeah, I didn't get too upset that I missed out on handcuffing Giovanni Bernard with Jeremy Hill. I already had Antonio Brown and some guy at the end of my bench I paid $1 for...Odell Beckham Jr.

This article was written by Ben Walker. Find Ben on Twitter @mrpumamc

Should You Draft Eddie Royal And Julian Edelman

2015-08-27T16:23:00.002-07:00

Image source: seattlepi.com

This time of year is an odd one. There are games, but they mean nothing. Over the past few seasons it seems that the preseason has less meaning than it has in the past. Most of the game action features the starters for a bit, then mostly the backups and guys that are trying to make the team playing their faces off. But this year I have noticed a trend that I haven't in the past. Some teams are sitting many of their most important players in a variety of situations. Some have been held out altogether so far, and some have gotten to that point. So how do you proceed with your drafting when you don't know what's going on? Let's try to find out together.

Two players that can have some serious implications for your PPR Fantasy teams are Eddie Royal and Julian Edelman. Both of these players are in positive expectation situations this season. Edleman has been a great PPR receiver for a few years now. Royal has had flashes, but is primed to see more balls in his direction this season than last. Both of these guys are listed as out with injuries, possibly for the rest of the preseason. So should you draft them? Maybe.

One point of consideration is the fact that both of these guys play for teams that have some apparent serious injury concerns at the wide receiver position. Kevin White is out for a large portion of the season, if not all. Alshon Jeffery has an ankle injury. Brandon LaFell is apparently just getting out of a walking boot. The Patriots situation is so dire, they just signed a 37 year old receiver, Reggie Wayne, to a decent money deal.

The Patriots are not known for being particularly forthcoming on their injury situations. There have been some rumors and tweets about what people have seen at their practices. Even the players don't say much. Edelman was asked about the extent and severity of his injury this week, and directed the reporters to talk to Head Coach Bill Belichick.

Image source: chicago.cbslocal.com

Similarly the Bears were coy with the extent of the injury to White earlier this year. They said he had shin splints right until the time at which White had surgery on his stress fractures in his shin bone. So Bears Coach John Fox is not always the most trustworthy of injury consultants. The word right now on Royal is that he is day to day.

My take on the situation is that we are watching two teams protecting two of their remaining healthy offensive assets from the rigors of meaningless games and contact. With already depleted resources, it seems the narrative of these injuries points to making sure that the offense has what top line players are left healthy to open the season.

Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

2015-08-25T06:47:00.003-07:00

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

Image source: tireball.com

Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Mocking the first overall pick in a 12 team PPR draft

2015-08-17T04:58:00.000-07:00

The first overall pick has been something that I have an amazingly large amount of experience with getting in my randomly selected fantasy drafts. I get it a lot. I hate it. I hate having one pick in the first 23. The stress and pressure of who to take, and not wanting to pick the guy who is going to bust, there's always one, is not something I want to deal with. But someone has to have the top pick. So let's take a look at the scenario I used from my mock draft on the fantasypros.com mock draft simulator.

I have put a fair amount of time into my strategy of who I would take at number one.

I looked at the four usual suspects and many aspects of their pros and cons in an article I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com. As I discussed in that article, the LeVeon Bell suspension makes me not want to take him. I don’t like the situation for Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy has a heck of a tough schedule in my opinion this season. So this left me at Adrian Peterson. So for the purposes of this mock draft I took Peterson to line up with my pick.

Now since then I have had a monumental shift in my thought process on my favorite back this year. I am willing to take a gamble on a guy that I believe has all of the things I value for a top running back. With the fifth easiest schedule of run defenses from last year, a much tougher pass defense schedule, a new regime that likes to run and uses a bell cow running back, I am willing to gamble on CJ Anderson to be the top running back for the 2015 season. Give me the first pick in a real draft, or redoing this mock, and I take him every time.

So now that I’m off my soapbox, we can resume a look at this mock draft I did. At pick 24 there is surprisingly no quarterbacks off the board. The best running backs available are Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, and Andre Ellington. The best wide receivers available are Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, and Brandin Cooks. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are both still available, but this is way too early for me for them. I have pretty much fallen in love with Mike Evans this year.

His situation is great.

He has a quarterback that is willing to toss the ball up. He is very tall. His schedule is extremely favorable for passing. And last but not least, he was amazing with no talent at the quarterback position last year. I can’t think of a guy I want more on this board, so Evans is my guy.

Pick 25 in this mock is the spot that is a little weird for me.

I don’t hate taking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, I prefer Luck. If you like Graham and want him, this is your spot, he won’t be available at the next pick. It is likely that the top 20 running backs and receivers will be picked clean the next time through, so you need to make your pick here based on that info. I am a believer that your second running back can be cobbled together from round four, five, or six picks. So we already have a top running back and a top receiver on our roster. Because this is a PPR league I want to take a good volume receiver. I like Brandin Cooks of the receivers left on the board. Cooks was on pace for a high volume last year, and this year there are more targets to spread around from missing components from last season.

At the end of the fourth round we find that

much to our good fortune Alfred Morris and Latavius Murray have fallen to us. There is only one Top 20 wide receiver left on the board in Keenan Allen. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left, as Luck, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all off the board. Drew Brees is also available in this spot. I like to stack a quarterback and a receiver, and if we didn’t need some running backs for this team I would probably take one of the quarterbacks, and lean toward Brees. But alas, we have found that two of the Top 20 running backs have fallen to us, so it makes our 48^th and 49^th overall picks pretty simple ones. Alfred and Latavius, welcome aboard.

When the end of the sixth round finds us,

there are now seven quarterbacks off the board. Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Ryan Tannehill are the best four on the board. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen are gone. The best tight end left is Martellus Bennett. At running back LeGarrette Blount has found his way to this spot in the draft. He is joined by Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, and Joique Bell. At wide receiver we find Eric Decker, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Wallace on the board.

I had a very hard time making a decision at this spot.

I sat with my finger over the mouse ready to click draft on Blount, but I just couldn’t do it. I hate having Patriots running backs on my team. I decided to go ahead and select Eric Decker, who I wrote about as a late round sleeper. Decker is a target of mine in middle rounds, and oddly this week I think his stock rose with Geno Smith being out and Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over as the starter.

With the 73^rd pick I decided to take a quarterback.

Of the players left I have two players to pick from. Either I am taking Matt Ryan, or I am taking Eli Manning. I like both of these players for the 2015 season, in fact writingabout Eli earlier this off season. The schedules for both teams are good for passing, they won’t face the best of passing defenses from last year. For me it comes down to preference and the rest of the situation. The Falcons have two proven wide receivers. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both players I wrote about this season. They have a history of being great players. The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. who was phenomenal last year, but is a second year guy and not proven yet. Along with Odell we have Victor Cruz who is returning from a torn patellar tendon. This is not an easy injury to return from, and even with all reports pointing to good things, nobody knows how Cruz will play this year. When you consider these factors, Matt Ryan is my guy.

During round seven there was a run on tight ends.

In round eight a run on running backs goes down. I find the same wide receivers that were available previously and some tight ends I am not interested in at this spot in the draft. Time for the trick play that I have been hearing about on many podcasts and reading about on twitter a lot. Arian Foster is sitting there. At the end of round eight you should already have a good slate of starters. Our team here is only missing a tight end, but with the top 11 off the board, we aren’t in a rush anymore. So Foster is the perfect lottery ticket at the end of the eighth. With incomplete information about his injury and the timeline currently, Foster might find himself back by the second week of the season. If you get him at any point near then for the rest of the season, you can assume you should be the gold standard of your league.

The next pick is a little more difficult for me.

I only have three wide receivers on my squad so far. I am usually a fan of loading up on receivers, but there is still some great running back talent on the board. Isaiah Crowell is on the board, and if he is the guy who is starting in Cleveland, it’s a great spot for him. They are a bad team, which has a great offensive line, and will win by running and playing defense. Devonta Freeman is still on the board. If he can get healthy and stay that way, he has the chance to be the starting back in Atlanta. Reggie Bush is on the board, and as I wrote here, Bush can be a great value play in PPR leagues. I decided to take Crowell here, gambling that he is eventually going to win this job. I would be okay with any of these backs, but would take them in the following order: Crowell, Freeman, Bush as it stands today. With all of the running back talent I have, if one of the later round guys I drafted hits, or if Foster comes back quickly, I could trade a running back to upgrade my wide receiver corps.

As we hit the end of Round 10, we find a lot of wide receivers on the board.

Since our last pick only one came off the board. We need a receiver and a tight end. The running backs on the board don’t make me want to draft them, especially since this team is stocked well. Kyle Rudolph is going to be our guy here. Minnesota faces the fourth best schedule for tight ends based on Fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Teddy Bridgewater in his second year, and performing well at the end of last season, if Rudolph can stay healthy, he is set up well for this season.

Our next pick needs to be a wide receiver. We lack depth there and need to find a value guy with a high ceiling. I want to take a guy that has a lot of upside. The receivers available are Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Marques Colston, and Nelson Agholor. I decided to take Agholor here. If he is ready to play this season, the volume he will see in the Philadelphia offense will make him a great value for the 11^th round.

We have now found the point in the draft where I am snatching up my value wide receivers.

I find Pierre Garcon sitting there at the end of round 12. As I wrote in my late round PPR values article, I love Garcon this year. If Robert Griffin III can get it together this year, I think Garcon can be a huge value. If you have been reading the rest of my mock draft articles, the 11 pick, and the 12 pick, you will notice that I like to take Garcon late. I’m hitching my wagon to him this year.

I grab John Brown with my pick at the start of Round 13. I like Brown over Floyd currently seeing as he didn’t just have surgery to repair a compound dislocation. I like to err on the side of the guy who has skills and didn’t just have hand surgery.

I take Stephen Gostkowski and the Ravens defense in rounds 14 and round 15. I took the top kicker and the defenses were decimated by the time I made my pick. I would likely stream a defense for the year based on the matchups.

So my strategy from the one hole was different than it was from the late first round spots. I was able to amass a huge amount of starting running back talent, and still have a few great wide receivers. I feel that this team ended up pretty balanced, and has the chance to have great expendable parts to possibly use to trade up to improve some positions later.

Mocking the 12 pick in a 12 team PPR league

2015-08-13T17:31:00.000-07:00

My favorite spots to draft in are the late first round picks. The sandwich picks, as they are sometimes called, allow you to both close and open a round. You get to take a look at what your opponents have and need. Then you get to take two players that fit either your needs or desires. In the front end of the draft, you get two of the top 13 players in a 12 team league. So let’s take a look at the who’s and why’s of my mock draft from pick 12. Note that this draft was done prior to the injury to Arian Foster.

So at the end of the first round the top six running backs have come off the board.

Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are also gone. I am a big proponent this season of taking a running back in round one as long as you get one of the top tier running backs. In this particular draft I had taken Arian Foster, but as I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com, I would now substitute that pick with CJ Anderson. Anderson is the end of my first tier of running backs, and has a big opportunity in front of him.

With my second pick in this sandwich, I look to Julio Jones.

As I wrote about him awhile back, I absolutely love Jones this year. The schedule for Atlanta is primed for him to have a huge season. The team will likely have a better defense, but won’t likely be a big jump this year. This leads me to thinking that they will still be involved in shootouts. Shootouts are a great thing for a player like Jones. So now after my second pick I have a top level running back, and the wide receiver I like the most for 2015.

When my pick comes up at the end of round three I am now thinking about taking another top level wide receiver and maybe a good second running back. After my fourth round pick in that scenario, I would already have a solid core of starters that I will be likely to plug and play for the whole season. This strategy leaves you in a good situation to fill in the rest of your starters, or add bench depth in case of injuries or for bye weeks.

So at the end of round three my pick wend Mark Ingram.

Ingram is in a good situation. He is the definite running downs back. His team traded away more than one receiving option, and added a Pro Bowl run blocking center. This all bodes well for the lead back in the New Orleans offense. This will fill out my starting running backs for the greater part of the season, barring injury.

My fourth round pick is a guy that I find myself drafting a lot

at the late third and early fourth round slots. Oddly he is a teammate of my third round pick. Brandin Cooks was the player I decided to snatch up with the first pick of the fourth. Cooks had an interesting ride last year. His usage was quizzical early in the season, and then with a slight shift to usage, he was on pace for monster rookie year numbers. Injury cut his rookie season short. It was obvious this offseason that there is a shift coming in the offense. The run is likely to be more important to the offense of the Saints, but they will still have to pass. The defense is not good. They will have a hard time stopping anyone. And that will lead to passing if they fail to control the clock and get a stop. Cooks in a PPR league should be a solid play, amassing a lot of catches, and possessing the skills to do great things with the ball. As my second wide receiver, I am a very happy man.

When the draft comes back to me again at pick 60 overall,

I find a great value still on the board at running back. Jonathan Stewart is hanging around. This is an unbelievable value. Stewart is a Top 20 running back, and he is sitting at pick 60. With DeAngelo Williams no longer clogging the backfield in Carolina, Stewart only needs to stay healthy to be a productive member of your team. There is no way that I could let Stewart pass at this spot, so welcome aboard.

The first pick of the sixth round is an interesting one.

There are a lot of choices left on the board that would fit well on this squad. Latavius Murray, TJ Yeldon are running backs on board. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are still there. Wilson might be a great pick at 6.01, but I was waiting on a quarterback in this league. Travis Kelce is there, but I know I am not a believer in Alex Smith, so Kelce is out for me. I decided to take Yeldon in this spot. Reports out of Jags camp is that Yeldon has picked up the offense very quickly. He has been talked about as a three down back. This is something I am interested in taking a shot on. A new three down back in the league. Sign me up.

During the rest of the sixth and seventh rounds before my next pick comes up there is a run on quarterbacks.

When my pick at 84 overall comes up

the best quarterback on the board is Eli Manning. I am still waiting on quarterback. I want to see what I get if I wait really late. The best available players left are Latavius, Todd Gurley, Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, Eric Decker. I can’t pass up Latavius Murray at this point. I think Gurley is a decent selection, but just today as I am writing this article news hit that Gurley will likely miss the first few games. So Murray is a better choice here in my opinion. Last year he flashed moments of brilliance. Murray gives me four starting running backs to choose from week to week.

So all the previously listed players are still available. With a decent amount of depth at the running back position this team needs to add a wide receiver. Eric Decker is the best on the board at this point in the draft. I am bullish on Decker this year, as I wrote earlier this season. Decker has a good situation, and I honestly believe it got better with Ryan Fitzpartick as the quarterback this year. Decker is a good receiver, in a team that made some great moves this off season, and is headed in the right direction. Decker fills in some much needed depth at the wide out spot.

At the end of round 9, 108 overall

this team has needs at tight end, quarterback, and wide receiver depth. The best receivers available are Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, Mike Wallace. The best tight end on the board is Delanie Walker, but I am not a fan this season. The best quarterbacks available are Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. I want to let quarterback go one more time and see what is left. This is after all a mock draft, the place to try things out.

With those facts in mind, I decided that I need to add some more wide receiver depth to this team. My favorite targets on this list are by far Anquan Boldin and Michael Floyd. Boldin is the best wide receiver in San Francisco, and the offseason action is pointing to a complete mess being what the team looks like this season. I find it likely they will be trailing a lot, leading to a lot of passing, hopefully to Boldin. Michael Floyd is a slight gamble. Having just had surgery for a compound dislocation, Floyd’s price is dropping. If his fingers are healed, and Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Floyd might be able to be a productive member of your fantasy roster this year. Expect a maximum effort from Floyd this year, as the size of his paycheck next year depends on it.

Coming back around in the 11^th round

we find that LaFell, Wallace, and Smith are still on the board. Torrey Smith and Marques Colston and Kendall Wright are available as well. I am not a fan of any of those wide receivers this year except Colston. The only issue I have with Colston is that I already have Brandin Cooks. I am not usually in the market for two wide receivers from the same team so I will pass on Colston.

In the past round there was another run on quarterback and there isn’t much left at tight end. I deided to take one more wide receiver. That guy is Pierre Garcon. I love Garcon in the end of round 11. As I wrote about him earlier, I believe that Garcon is set up for a good season. The schedule is great for Washington, and if Robert Griffin III can figure it out, Garcon was a PPR monster with him in his rookie season.

So with the first pick in round 12, I suppose it’s time to find my quarterback.

I have tried this strategy a few times in mock drafts this year. I am generally pleased with the quarterbacks that are left behind. If you look at the points that separated Ben Roethlisberger, the fifth ranked quarterback on ESPN standard leagues, and the 17^th ranked quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, was a total of 61 points on the whole season. That is a difference of 3.8 points per game over the whole season. You will likely recoup those points with the added value you got from players you didn’t take earlier in the draft. And if my quarterback falters, I can just stream from the leftovers and likely be just fine.

With my 13^th and 14^th round picks I am getting a jump on the competition

and taking the top kicker and the defense that I want. There are obviously some defenses that are already off the board, but I am in love with the potential of the Jets defense this season. They already had a strong front on defense. Then they upgraded the secondary with one of the best shutdown corners and a solid counterpart on the other side. I love the Jets this season and want to get them in every draft I can.

For kicker, I like to get Gostkowski at the top of round 14. At this point I only need to add a tight end, and am going to stream that position. So I like to take the top kicker. Gostkowski is a good kicker year in and year out. If he isn’t available I favor either kickers that are indoors, or the kicker in Denver. Honestly most of the time I end up dropping my kickers anyways to make room to hold a waiver wire guy for a week.

With my last pick in this draft I selected Charles Clay. He signed a big contract this past offseason, and is likely to get some usage in the offense this season. Clay will be the outlet and often a hot route for the myriad of mess that is the quarterback situation in Buffalo. If I don’t like what action Clay is getting, I would probably stream a guy that is available on waivers.

So ends our look at the number 12 overall pick. I love these sandwich picks for the ability to take two players in a row. This allows you to look at what is available and what your opponents need in the next rounds and make an informed decision. Also you end up getting two of the top 13 picks, which is not a bad thing either. Check back for the next draft position, the first overall pick.

Mocking the 11 pick in a 12 team league

2015-08-06T16:43:00.000-07:00

Mock drafting is a very important part of the preseason regimen that a Fantasy player should go through. I have already completed around 50 mock drafts this season. The process has been made much faster this season after I found the Mock Draft Simulator I wrote about here. Instead of taking an hour, the simulator takes the average draft positions rankings, and simulates a draft for you. You can pick various settings for the rosters and league size, making it a great tool for all kinds of leagues. An upgrade to the pro level on fantasy pros lets you draft against a higher level setting, making your draft game even better.

Image source: greeleytribune.com

Drafting from all the different positions in the draft helps you discover the players that will be available at your picks, and prepares you for your draft.

Knowing the likely rounds you need to take the players you are interested in allows you to put together a solid plan to draft the team you want.

For the first in this series I have decided to pick from the 11 spot. The league setting is a 12 team PPR with two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

So let’s take a look at the mock draft from pick 11.

When my first round pick came up I had some choices. There were some great players still available. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster, and CJ Anderson were all available. With only one player in between my first and second picks my selection process is skewed by the talent left at wide receiver. If I take a second tier high level running back there will still be at least one wide out that I would be happy to have on my team when my pick at 14 comes back to me. With only two running backs left that I am interested at this point in the draft, I would not be guaranteed one of them. So my selection was Foster. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Anderson, but as I wrote about Foster earlier this year, I like him a lot this season.

This was written before the injury to Foster in the preseason. That injury makes it imperative in my opinion that you would take Anderson at this spot. He is the best running back left and could be the end of a tier at the position. There will still be the same receivers behind this pick, but you have by far taken the best running back left.

As it turned out

the picks at 12 and 13 were Beckham and Jones, leaving me to take Demaryius Thomas at pick 14. This sets up the situation I am favoring this season in my leagues. In the past I have favored a zero running back approach to PPR leagues, but this year I am leaning more toward taking a running back if the right guy is available. In this draft I now have a great running back and an elite wide receiver to start my draft out. I know that when it gets back to me at the end of round three none of the elite wide receivers or running backs will be left.

When it does come my turn at pick 35

there were still some decent players available. For running backs Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart were all there to be selected. At wide receiver the available players were Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, and Julian Edelman. At this point in the draft quarterback can also be a consideration to me, and Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson were available. I am not a huge fan of Miller this year, Morris is not a great back in PPR formats because he doesn’t catch passes, and Stewart has a history of injury so I am not a huge fan of any of these players. If I didn’t already have Thomas as one of my receivers I might take Sanders, but I don’t want two receivers from the same team. With a lot of targets available in the New Orleans offense and a belief that Cooks will be getting his fair share of them, I selected him. Edelman would be a solid choice in a PPR format, but the possibility of Tom Brady missing four games sours me on him at this spot in the draft.

The round four pick, 38 overall left me in a similar spot. I am confident that a quarterback that can touch the elite level will not be around at the end of round five. I have two great wide receivers already so taking a guy I am not sure about in Edelman, and a guy who is unlikely to have the same level of targets and has drop issues in Benjamin is not on my radar. So I decide to do something I don’t usually do and take Peyton. This allows me to stack my elite wide receiver and his quarterback. As I wrote here, I like to stack an elite target and the guy throwing him the ball when it is possible. This satisfies my desire there.

By the time my pick in round five comes around,

59 overall, all of the Top 20 running backs and wide receivers were off the board. Russell Wilson has fallen to this spot, a slight miscalculation on my part, but I’m still happy with Peyton. The best available players on the board at running back are Giovanni Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and TJ Yeldon. Travis Kelce and Greg Olson are both available at tight end, but I am not a fan of early tight ends. Yeldon is my pick here. I am gambling on a rookie, but he is a rookie that has the job pretty well locked up. I have recently read some good reports on Yeldon and how well he has picked up the offense. If he can lock down pass blocking, he has a chance to be a three down back.

For my pick at 62 overall Carlos Hyde and Travis Kelce have now come off the board. Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard are still available at running back. I am not ready to go with another gamble on a guy who is unproven at running back and is on a team that will likely be trailing a lot. With Roy Helu on the roster, the Raiders have a pass catching back not named Latavius. I am still not a fan of Bernard at this spot so I switch up my thinking a bit. Greg Olson is the fourth ranked tight end on the blended rankings, and since I already have a fairly well rounded setup of starters, I decided to take Olson at this spot. My belief is that in later rounds I can find a few guys to platoon at my flex spot, but I now have a lineup that I am willing to run out every week of the season and take my chances with.

Between rounds six and seven a quarterback run position happens.

This is important to note because this is a likely spot that if you don’t have a quarterback, it’s time to get your man. Since I already do, that allows players to fall to me that were available previously. When my pick at 83 overall comes up, Giovanni Bernard is still on the board. Even though I am not a fan of him this season, as I wrote earlier, every player will have a place in a draft where the value is better than the pick. Bernard will be a great flex player in a PPR league, so he is my pick at 83.

When it comes back around in the eighth round at pick 86 overall there are still some decent values on the board. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount are the best running backs on the board. Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald are the top receivers left for the taking. Seeing as I have a rookie and a guy I don’t believe in this year on my squad already, I decide to take Joique bell to bolster my running back depth. I don’t like to take Patriots backs since you never know what they are going to do, and Jennings has a hard time staying healthy, so Joique is my guy.

A stoke of good fortune finds me when it comes back to me at 107 and 110.

We find that both Decker and Fitzgerald have fallen to me. These are guys that in the later rounds I am a fan of getting on my teams. I don’t believe in Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback. I think that at some point this season he will be on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Decker a lot of opportunity. Fitzpatrick is a decent NFL quarterback with the ability to run a good offense. He is not a top level quarterback, but he is a veteran who knows what he is doing. Fitzgerald is a bit more of a flier than I think Decker is. But in the 10^th round he is a good value. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Fitzgerald should have better numbers than he did with the menagerie of terrible quarterbacks the Cardinals had last year. As my fourth wide out I could do worse.

When my pick comes up in round 11,

131 overall, I found a lot of late round values at the wide receiver spot. Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Anquon Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, and Marques Colston are available. Not much left in the running back bin, so I am now rolling with what I have at running back and am taking the receivers due to their value this late in the draft. As I wrote previously about Boldin, I like him as a late round guy this season.

Pick 134 in the 12^th round has me looking at two guys. Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are my favorite picks left on the board. I love both of these guys in the 12^th round this year. I wrote about Garcon in my late round ppr values article this week. I see him as a player with big potential to bounce back this season if he can get some consistent play from the quarterback position. I like Colston late this year too for the same reasons I like Cooks. But therein lies the problem. Having Cooks already on my team makes me not want to draft Colston. If Cooks isn’t already on my roster I would err on the side of the better quarterback situation and snatch up Colston. So Garcon is my guy.

At pick 155 overall in round 13 I pull a fast one.

I sneak in and take the defense I am targeting this year. The Jets are ranked 11^th this season by the fantasy pros consensus rankings. To me this is a huge undervaluing of their defense. They have a great front line. Yes it would be better if Sheldon Richardson didn’t keep getting himself in trouble, but they will still have a solid front four. The glaring hole they had last year was at cornerback, and they addressed that in a big way this season. Adding Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield will bolster their defense and will likely decrease their points allowed, while increasing their turnovers forced. I don’t want to miss out on them, so I take them a little earlier than most would draft a D/ST.

At pick 158 overall, the second in the 14^th round I decide to take the top ranked kicker as none of them are off the board yet. This allows me to have the best kicker over the past few years, and locks me in to a kicker I will be happy to run out there for the entire season. I can snipe the top guy and know that most of the other teams are only taking defense and kickers for the rest of the draft, so I can get most of the skill position players that are left on the board with my final pick. You can feel free to take a kicker based on any factor you see fit. Some like a kicker that plays indoors, some like the Denver kicker to add that distance from their thin air. I usually go with Stephen Gostkowski in this position. He’s good. He’s consistent. He’s my pick in round 14.

With my last pick, 179 overall, at the end of the 15^th round it is time for a flier.

The best available players on the board are Kendall Wright, John Brown, Larry Donnell, Percy Harvin, Reuben Randle, Kenny Stills, Charles Clay, and Devante Parker. With the Justin Hunter situation in Tennessee probably keeping him out, you can’t really stab people, I decided to take Wright. He is the highest ranked, has the best situation, and plays for a bad team that is likely to throw a lot this year. I could also take Davante Parker in this spot, but I think he will be available a few weeks down the line on waivers when his situation becomes clearer. By that time you might be able to easily discard one or more of your current roster to make room for him as he rounds into playing shape.

A feature I like about the mock draft simulator is that it will give you a rating for your starters, bench, and overall team. My starters were the top ranked in the league for this draft. My bench was only the fifth best according to their metrics, but I would not be planning to use my bench a lot. I also have a fair amount of receivers that I believe have a good chance for resurgent production this year if the chips can fall right for them. I have great wide receiver depth on this team, and if one or two of them can hit, I might have some good trade chips for upgrading at another spot in my lineup.

So we reach the end of the first installment of this look at mock drafting. I hope this article has served to help you in your planning and preparation for your drafts this season. Look for my articles on other draft pick spots in the near future.

Chris Ivory 2015 Schedule Outlook

2015-08-01T08:30:00.000-07:00

The New York Jets have not been a very good team the last few years. A great run defense and marginal pass defense have been the best units on their team. Lacking talent on offense has been an issue. An unproven, and at times bad, quarterback and lack of depth at receiver have hamstrung the Jets offense. With a regime change and the addition of Brandon Marshall you might think that the passing game will get a better look. And it may. But with Todd Bowles installed as the head man and a hugely upgraded secondary, look for the jets to win by controlling the ball and shutting down the opponents offense.

Image source: nypost.com

Enter Chris Ivory.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets currently sits atop the depth chart. Over the last few seasons he has not been the most consistent of running backs, but its tough to be great when they know you are running and stack the box. Ivory only had 44% quality games last season using the consistency guide of Bob Lung. His late season run was pretty bad as teams realized that the Jets lacked a passing attack.

Over the last two seasons Ivory’s splits for both home vs road and rank of defense have not been great. His best category is against bad defenses at home, where he was a perfect four for four. At home against good defenses he was four of seven quality games, 57%. On the road overall he is only four of 15, 27%.

The schedule for the Jets this year is the seventh best schedule against run defenses.

With an average ranking of 18.31, the jets will only face four of the Top 10 run defenses from last season. To open the season Ivory and the Jets will not face a Top 10 run defense. In games six through 10, the schedule gets much tougher. Three Top 11 run defenses await during this period. Weeks 11 to 13 have great match ups against teams that are no better than 24^th in run defense last season. The playoff run is difficult for Ivory and his Jets counterparts. The Week 14 game is in Ivory’s favor, facing the second worst run defense of last season in the Titans. After that it gets much more difficult. Week 15 sees the Jets travel to the eighth ranked run defense of the Cowboys. The Week 16 match up doesn’t get much easier, facing the ninth ranked run defense of the Patriots. If your league plays through week 17 you won’t find a reprieve either. The 11^th ranked Bills will host the Jets in the finale.

Ivory is not historically a big pass catcher out of the backfield.

Having a career high 18 receptions on 27 targets in 2014 means that in a PPR league you will not get many extra points from his activity in the passing game. Ivory also must win the job during training camp. The Jets signed Stevan Ridley and traded for Zac Stacy in the off season. This isn’t Ivory’s job without earning it. The good news is that if one of the other guys in the competition wins the job, my advice will be the same.

Ivory, or the winner of the competition, is at best a RB2 or a flex. If you draft them, look to trade them after four or five weeks for a player that has a better looking second half or playoff schedule. He is a player you could platoon throughout the season based on match ups. Ivory is currently RB 44 at 106^th overall pick in the ADP on fantasypros.com. As late round depth that has potential trade value, Ivory is a target of mine in round nine to ten.

Reggie Bush 2015 outlook

2015-07-24T04:29:00.000-07:00

Reggie Bush has found his way to his fourth team in his NFL career. Starting out in New Orleans, and arguably being misused in their offense, Bush moved on to Miami for two fairly productive seasons. Following Miami, Bush spent two seasons in Detroit, last season hampered by injuries. And finally in 2015 Bush will find himself in with the San Francisco 49ers. Likely his last stop entering his 10^th season in the NFL, Bush is set up for success as long as he can stay healthy.

Image source: 49ers.com

Bush has not been the model of efficiency

using the consistency report from Bob Lung. With 24 quality games out of 41 in his last three seasons, Bush has been a 59% consistent player. He has played well against bad defenses with a 100% consistent performance on the road, and 71% at home. Bush scored well at home against middle ranked defense at 60% consistent, but bad on the road against this tier with no quality games. Surprisingly against good defenses Bush is more consistent on the road than at home.

The way I am looking at the 49ers schedule and Bush for the 2015 season is in respect to passing downs. The attrition that the 49ers faced this offseason leaves the cupboard bare on defense, and I believe they will be a shell of their former selves. This leads me to believe that they will be trailing a fair amount this season and will be throwing a lot. This is where we see the value in Bush. He will likely be inheriting the passing downs work, and if San Francisco is behind, a lot of downs will be passing downs.

In regards to defenses they will face this season, the passing defenses are the softer spot for San Francisco. They face an average pass defense of 17.87, the 10^th best. They face five Top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. Compare this to the 23^rd ranked run defense schedule at an average rank of 14.93 and five Top 10 run defenses. With the mess the 49ers will probably be on defense, and difficult run defense schedule, I can see them spending a lot of time trying to catch up by passing.

San Francisco plays in one of the toughest divisions in football. The defenses they face in Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona are no joke. They all sport tough, hard hitting defenses. The worst rank any divisional foe had in run defense was 14 last season. The Cardinals and rams were ranked worse in pass than run last season, meaning that the vulnerability they did show favors Bush.

Additionally, the bye week for the 49ers is a late one this season. Week 10 is when San Francisco will be taking a week off. If Bush hit, you can plug him into a flex spot in the lineup for a long duration of the Fantasy season.

The big caveat for Bush will be staying healthy.

He is not a young man anymore with respect to being a running back. Entering his 10^th season in the NFL, health will be the big concern for Bush. He has missed 7 games the last two seasons, and was not particularly effective last season. In 2014 he only had about 550 yards from scrimmage and two scores. The positive in the respect is his average draft position. He amounts to a lottery ticket for Fantasy owners this year. The current average draft position for Reggie is 120 according to fantasypros.com. This means that in a 12 team league he is a pick at the 10^th and 11^th round turn. By this point in the draft he makes perfect sense as a guy with some upside after you have your starting core established.

With all the signs in San Francisco pointing towards them pushing the reset button

on the team and cleaning house, Reggie Bush might be the diamond in the rough that can help your fantasy team in the 2015 season. If he can stay healthy, and San Francisco plays as bad on defense as it looks like they will, Bush has a big chance to see a lot of playing time. For a 10 or 11 Bush can be the lottery ticket that helps Fantasy owners bring home a championship.

Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator

2015-07-17T11:09:00.000-07:00

I firmly believe in the power of the mock draft. This time of year values of players fluctuate a lot. Mock drafting is a way to gauge values of players for the upcoming season. Unless you already know your draft pick spot, I highly recommend trying mocks from all of the different spots in the draft. The Fantasy Pros mock draft simulator is a great way to do this.
A note for mobile users: Click the link at the bottom of the page for the web version to see the banners.

All the sites that host Fantasy leagues have mock draft lobbies. some of them are rigid, and won't necessarily meet your needs for league size and rules. Then when you get into the lobby, you often find people that stick around for the first pick, and then either time out or just auto pick the whole draft. This is annoying and frustrating. Also the time it takes for each person to make a pick can be tedious.

Fantasy Pros has solved many of these problems with their mock draft simulator. The mock draft simulator takes the blended rankings of many of the top Fantasy analysts and sites and allows you to do a mock draft based on them. You can customize these mock drafts to many different settings for league size, scoring, positions, IDP, skill level of other drafters, and you can select any pick in the draft order. A mock draft on the simulator takes about five minutes to complete. How is it so fast? As soon as you make your selection, the simulator populates all the picks between yours. This allows you to gather a lot of data in a short amount of time.

The speed with which you can complete a mock draft on the simulator allows you to quickly try out all the draft spots in the order, and will let you try out different strategies like zero RB and taking slightly unorthodox picks early in your draft. It will let you see how some players might fall in your real drafts, and give you a pretty good idea what kind of team you can build from any position in the draft. I myself have already done about 40 mock drafts this year. I have tried out strategies like taking three Green Bay Packers with my first three picks, Gronking my first round pick, and not drafting a quarterback until literally my last pick, I ended up with Teddy Bridgewater.

So give the banner at the top, or the box on the side a click and get a mock draft started today.

Josh Hill, 2015 Tight End Sleeper

2015-07-16T03:59:00.000-07:00

Over the past few years the New Orleans Saints have been a prolific offense. Since coming to the Saints in 2006, Drew Brees has thrown for 43,685 yards and 316 touchdowns. Many people attribute a lot of his success to the addition of Jimmy Graham, but he was doing it before Graham, and he will be doing it after.

Image source: star-telegram.com

Some have said that the Saints will probably be shifting to a more run heavy offense in the coming season. Some of their personnel moves are certainly signaling this. But that doesn’t mean that the Saints won’t be throwing the ball at all. Brees has become one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Not the top guy, but in the Top 15 conversation. So why would he stop throwing now? And in a division where there is only one team that actually plays defense? Come on. The Saints themselves can’t play much defense, so of course they will be throwing the ball.

This brings me to the point of the article. Acquiring a target likely to see some good field time, and targets from Brees. A big target. A red zone target. And a big red zone target that you can currently find in the round 10 or 11 areas of the Average Draft Position on fantasypros.com.

Once the Saints traded away Jimmy Graham there was a void left to be filled. Well let’s take a look at a 6’5” 229lb void filling, red zone target in Josh Hill. The trade of Graham instantly made the situation that Hill finds himself in much better for his prospects, and the prospects of Fantasy owners that take a chance on him this season. Hill does lack a bit in experience in his two seasons of NFL football, only having a total of 20 catches for 220 yards. The fantastic thing is that of his 20 catches, a whopping six of them are for touchdowns. That is a ridiculous rate. Yes unsustainable, but it shows that Hill at least has a chance to take some of the role that was Graham’s in New Orleans.

The Saints have a mixed bag at wide receiver this season. An aging Marques Colston has seen both his catches and yards decline over the past few years. The Saints drafted Brandin Cooks last season, but he is unproven, and ended up injured last year. Nick Toon has gotten some buzz as well this offseason, but has only been able to see the field for 16 games over his first three seasons with the saints. Ben Watson is hanging around, and is the biggest direct threat to Hill at the tight end spot, but he is 34 years old and two inches shorter.

In regards to the schedule of defenses against the tight end points allowed that Hill will face this season, it looks good. The schedule is the fifth best schedule for tight ends for the year, coming in at an average rank of 18.06. Only four Top 10 teams in fantasy points allowed to tight ends are on the slate.

If you don’t end up getting one of the elite guys early in your draft, Hill starts to look pretty juicy at an ADP of 115 on fantasypros.com in PPR formats. My suggestion is if you draft Hill, take another tight end with some upside potential later in the draft and see if you hit on one of them, maybe both. Keep an eye on the playing time and target distribution during the preseason, but for a fairly late pick, he’s worth the gamble in my opinion.

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

2015-07-13T03:59:00.000-07:00

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers

is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.

Image source: nypost.com

Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.

This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers,

we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.

The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27^th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13^th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28^th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24^th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22^nd ranked run defense and 16^th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury

Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.

A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.

If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team.

Jimmy Graham 2015 Outlook

2015-07-09T04:30:00.000-07:00

Image source reddit.com

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks has been one of the Top 2 tight ends in fantasy football over the last four seasons. The off season trade to the Seahawks has made some want to shy away from Graham, but I’m advocating that he should remain a high round draft pick for your teams.

His rookie season he didn’t get much work, but since then he has averaged 88 catches per year, 1099 yards per season, and 11.5 touchdowns.

Graham has been the most consistent TE over the last three seasons

according to Bob Lung’s consistency rankings. Find Bob's work at ffconsistency.com. Graham has had a total of 38 quality games over that span. Last season, Graham had 11 quality games of his 16 for a consistency percentage of 69. Along with his great quality games numbers, he is the only TE that has had double digit quality games in each of the past three seasons. In 2014 he had the second highest point total for tight ends at 223.9 points for a PPR league.

Graham has a great schedule ahead of him for the 2015 season.

Ranking the seventh easiest, he will only face off against three Top 10 defenses against the TE position. The average rank of the defense he will face is 17.93. The season begins with the only Top 5 defense in the St. Louis Rams that the Seahawks will face. After that game the Seahawks will not face off against another Top 10 team until week 15.

The playoff run for Graham does feature three of the most difficult match ups he will face in 2015. Week 14 has him facing off against the 14^th best defense in the Ravens. The week 15 match up gets a little harder when they face off against the 10^th ranked defense against TE in the Browns. Week 16 will have Graham meeting the Rams for the second time of the season. If your leagues play all 17 weeks of the season, a great finale awaits you in the 29^th ranked Arizona Cardinals.

The average draft position (ADP) for Graham seems a bit high,

but if you draft round one and two well, you can have a guy that is in the elite ranks of TE. According to the ADP on fantasypros.com, Graham can be had at the 26^th overall pick in a standard league, and 29^th overall pick in PPR leagues. Assuming you can draft one to two elite top tier players in the RB or WR categories, Graham allows you a clear advantage over all the other TE except Rob Gronkowski.

As we saw in the Super Bowl last year, the Seahawks need a big, physical player in the red zone. Graham at 6’7 and 260 pounds can definitely provide them this. His basketball background allows him to box out smaller players and dominate the red zone. Third down is another situation where it is likely that Graham will be used, and useful to the Hawks. Getting the tough yards to keep drives alive is another spot it is easy to imagine Graham seeing a lot of usage.

While it is fairly certain that the years of 125 to 145 targets are now behind him, I can see the efficiency of the targets he will get being great. The Seahawks have a three headed monster in the read option and play action plays that they will run. Defenses will have to respect Marshawn Lynch and his running ability. In addition, many defensive units will need to keep a spy on Russell Wilson. This will likely leave a lot of open space in the middle of the field for the third head of this monster to operate.

Trading for Graham in the off season and taking on his contract, which pays him $10 million dollars a year, is another sign to me that he will remain a key offensive weapon. That is a lot of money to pay a player and not make him a big part of your offensive and game plans. If you take a look at the games in which Percy Harvin actually saw the field for the Seahawks in his time in Seattle, they have been known to manufacture ways to get the ball to players that they feel can have big upside and be mismatches for the opposition.

So for these reasons I believe that the schedule outlook for Jimmy Graham in 2015 is in great shape. His usage, needs of the team, consistency, and ability to create mismatches with defenders should all set him up to keep scoring you copious amounts of points in your Fantasy Football games this year.

Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard 2015 Schedule Outlook

2015-07-02T05:28:00.000-07:00

I listen to a lot of podcasts about fantasy football. I read a lot of tweets and articles. Recently I have heard a lot of industry folks singing the praises of both of the Bengals running backs. I'm here to give you Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard 2015 schedule outlook.

Image source: Creative Commons Fletcher45005

Cincinnati is facing the third toughest run defense opposition in the league in the 2015 season. Averaging the ranks of the run defenses they will face gives you an average of the 13.75. On top of that, the Bengals have 8 weeks of facing opponents that were in the top 10 run defenses from last season. That makes for a brutal season of tough grinding to gain yards on the ground.

The first 4 weeks of the season are good for Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard's 2015 schedule outlook, and then it quickly goes downhill after that. The Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs are 3 of their first 4 opponents, and judging by last seasons numbers, those could set up nicely for the duo. After those first 4 games the only team that the Bengals will face in the rest of the season that was ranked worse than 14th in rushing yards allowed last season is their 2 division games against the Browns.

Last season Hill was somewhat streaky. According to ffconsistency.com, Hill had a consistency rating of 63%, meaning he scored 11 points in a PPR format. Of his 1124 rushing yards, 701 of them came in only 5 weeks of the season. That is a whopping 62% of his yards in only 5 weeks. Add to that the fact that Bernard missed 3 games in which Hill racked up 361 of his yards as the only real running threat, and was force fed the ball 2 of those 3 weeks. Hill did catch a few passes, but the yardage and PPR points were negligible.

Bernard was similarly streaky. His consistency rating from ffconsistency.com was 62%. Gio rushed for 680 yards last season, and caught 43 passes for 349 yards. His best receiving games were against the lower tier pass defenses. The upcoming slate of pass defenses will be difficult for the Bengals this season, and average of 14.06 ranked pass defense and also 8 top 10 opponents. He also missed 3 games with injuries last season. Now sure, injuries can't be predicted, but given his smaller frame, they can be more likely.

Add to the mix that the passing game is in for a rough season in 2015 as well. As i told you in my article on quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game have a lower third schedule of passing defenses. The combination of strong defenses all around might leave a little space for Hill and Bernard to have a few good weeks, but you can do better for your fantasy teams than what I think they will offer you this year.

Given Jeremy Hill and Goivanni Bernard's 2015 schedule outlook, and the time share in the backfield, I cannot justify the prices you will have to pay. Currently the average draft position on myfantasyleague.com is 18 for Hill, and 46 for Bernard. Bernard is definitely a slightly better value at those prices, but his workload figures to be less than Hill, and I think I would rather take a player like Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray, or even Frank Gore in that same spot in the draft.

Taking A Good Look At QB: Guys I Don't Want On My Team

2015-06-30T07:29:00.000-07:00

In my last article I wrote about some quarterbacks that I was interested in having on my team for the upcoming season based on their consistent play and 2015 schedules. So it seems obvious that I should take a look at the other side of that equation as well. Here is a look at some quarterbacks I don't want to draft for the upcoming season.

Image source hngn.com

Jay Cutler (CHI) has had an up and down career. The early off season chatter had rumors of Cutler on the trading block or being cut, but his contract is a huge handcuff for the Bears. Cutler has been an inconsistent player, although he was 67% consistent last season according to the statistics of ffconsistency.com. The loss of Brandon Marshall, who didn't do much last season due to injuries, could loom large for Cutler and the Bears in 2015. Alshon Jeffery is a fine player, and can likely be a great number 1 receiver, but that is still to be proven. Eddie Royal was brought in this year and has familiarity with the offense and Cutler, but he has often been a flash in the pan type of fantasy option.

The biggest hurdle for the Bears passing game this year is a brutal schedule. They have a tie for the worst upcoming schedule in the league against the pass. The average rank of the pass defenses the bears will face in 2015 is 12.31. In addition they will play against a whopping 9 top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. In recent years the offensive line has not been great, and word has been that they are using a rookie at left tackle. It could be a long season for Da Bears, Cutler, and his owners in fantasy.

Image source: nypost.com

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) is a trendy name in fantasy right now. After being the 5th highest scoring

quarterback in 2014, many people are touting him for the 2015 season. Scoring a 56% consistency in 2014, Roethlisberger was 9th in consistency. But digging a little bit deeper into his numbers, there emerges some troubling trends for his play.

In 2015 the Steelers will play the 29th ranked schedule of pass defenses, with an average rank of 13.5. Of the Steelers 16 games, 7 will be played against top 10 defenses from a year ago. Over the last 3 seasons Big Ben has not fared well against the top level defenses he has faced. In 14 games played against top 10 defenses over that span he has only put up quality games in 5, for an average of about 36%. Let us also recall that 12 of his 32 touchdowns from a season ago came in just 2 games. As much as I love Antonio Brown, I can't love Ben this year.

Image source: footbasket.com

Phillip Rivers (SD) makes the list of quarterbacks I have no interest in for the 2015 season as well. Having just a 50% consistency rating last 2 seasons, and a dismal 25% in 2012, he is not the model of efficiency for your fantasy roster. Oddly he does seem to play better on the road against top defenses than at home. Against average defenses (between 11 and 22) he is an abysmal 1 quality game in 14 tries.

The upcoming season will see the Chargers take on the 27th hardest pass defense lineup, averaging 13.75 overall. Of the defenses they will face, 8 of them were ranked in the top 10 last year. With an aging tight end and number 2 receiver, a lot will be left on the shoulders of Keenan Allen, who had a disappointing sophomore season. I'm passing on Rivers this season.

Image source: enefel.com

Matthew Stafford (DET) has been a guy I targeted in my leagues in the past. Throwing to one of the

best wide receivers in the game is a good thing for your fantasy quarterback. But Calvin Johnson had trouble staying healthy last year, and is losing favor in the fantasy community. A healthy Johnson could bounce back this season, but I don't think I will be taking a chance on Stafford in 2015.

The Lions face a pretty tough schedule in the upcoming year, averaging a rank of 14.68 they have the 23rd toughest pass defense schedule. Add to that the fact that they will face 9 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago and it is a tough road this year for Detroit. Stafford only scored 237 fantasy points in ESPN leagues last year, making him tied for 15th. In his previous 2 season he was a pretty consistent quarterback, 75% in 2012, and 69% in 2013, but his 50% in 2014 shows a trend in the wrong direction. I'm leaving him to the masses this year.

Image source: usatoday.com

Andy Dalton (CIN) had a brutal year in 2014. It didn't help that he was without much of a wide receiver target for a large portion of the year. With basically 1 NFL level talent for some games catching his passes, Dalton was only 38% consistent last season. His overall consistency numbers over the 2 previous seasons were only 56%. Dalton only scored 210 fantasy points in 2014, and that includes 4 rushing touchdowns that I wouldn't count on again in 2015.

The Bengals face a tough schedule coming up this year. Coming in at the 24th hardest pass defense schedule faced, averaging a rank of 14.06, it isn't going to be easy. Dalton will run into 8 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Dalton has fared well on the road against top defenses in the past, but not as well at home, and plays inconsistently against even the lower tier defenses. After being the 18th ranked quarterback in fantasy points last season, I can't say I want anything to do with Dalton for the upcoming year.

Hopefully this has shed some light on the other side of the fantasy quarterback. Making educated decisions on which guys to get, and which guys to platoon will lead you to success in your leagues in 2015. Look for more to come on running backs, receivers, and tight ends in the near future.

Taking A Good Look At QB

2015-06-28T09:00:00.000-07:00

Wait on one. Take one in the late first round. Don't take one until the mid rounds. The advice on the quarterback position is all over the board. The top 6 scoring players in ESPN standard leagues were quarterbacks. What does this mean? You can get one of them at every part of the draft the advice suggests. But which one to get? I posit that schedule and consistent play can lead you to great situations.

Image source cbssports.com

Last year Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were a cut above. Scoring 342 and 336 points respectively in ESPN standard scoring. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning were a tier of their own at 312 and 307. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees complete the list of pre-cliff QB's scoring 295 and 290. From there it went downhill, but not to despair.

So how to decide when and who to take at the quarterback position? Some of that is personal, and based largely on draft strategy. If a top tier guy falls far enough for me, like Rodgers or Luck in the 3rd round, I might take them. But I myself find that I like to wait and fill out the rest of my roster, and some of my bench, before I snag a QB. There is value in the mid to late rounds of the draft at the QB position.

Image source: chatsports.com

Obviously Luck and Rodgers are great quarterbacks, both NFL and fantasy. They were both tied with ffconsistency.com, tops in the league. This season Luck is in prime position to have a stellar performance. Indy has added offensive weapons like Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Duron Carter, and Phillip Dorsett. Adding those players to TY Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener makes one potent offense. Then look at the numbers of the defenses they will face in 2015 and your mouth should start watering. The average rank of the pass defenses that the Colts will face in the upcoming season is 18. They have the 9th best schedule for pass defenses they will face from 2014 numbers. On top of that, they will only face 3 top 10 defenses against the pass from last season. I certainly can't blame anyone for taking Luck in their draft.

81% consistency ratings according to Bob Lung's ratings on

Aaron Rodgers has some good offensive weapons as well in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. Davante Adams still has some proving himself to do, but Arod was singing his praises this off season. The big difference I find between Luck and Rodgers is that Rodgers faces a more formidable schedule of pass defenses. The Packers average pass defense faced for the 2015 season is 13.87, the 26th ranked schedule in the league. They will square off against 7 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Now don't get this info wrong. I don't think that Rodgers will not play well this season, he is a great quarterback, but his road is much tougher than Luck.

So let's turn our attention to some mid to late round quarterbacks that, should you choose not to draft Luck and Rodgers, have favorable schedules based on the defenses they will face.

Image source: web.vtc.edu

Drew Brees is currently ranked 42 in average draft position (ADP) on Fantasypros.com. Fantasy Pros uses a blended ranking of multiple sites to give you an average across many platforms. Brees was 75% consistent last season, and about 79% over the past 3 seasons, according to Bob Lung of ffconsistency.com and socalledfantasyexperts.com. This means that Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks over the last 3 seasons. In the upcoming season Brees has the second best ranked schedule of defenses against the pass. The Saints average pass defense faced in 2015 was 22.06, and they won't face a single top 10 pass defense from a year ago. On top of that, they will play a total of 10 games indoors this season. At a 4th round value for a 10 team league, or late 3rd in a 12 team, Brees should definitely be on your radar this season.

Tony Romo is currently a 7th round (10 team) or 6th round (12 team) pick according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Romo was a 73% consistent player last season. This year he has the 8th best schedule against opposing pass defenses from a year ago, an average defense of 18.31. Dallas will only face a top 10 pass defense 4 times this season. With turmoil in the backfield of the Cowboys this off season, it might make sense that Dallas could pass more against the weak pass defenses they will face. As long as everyone pertinent to the Cowboys pass attack makes it out of the preseason unscathed, and Dez Bryant doesn't miss any time, Romo is a guy that is high up on my list for 2015.

Image source: reddit.com

Russell Wilson is pretty good at football. Both running the ball, and passing it. And this season you

might just see the Seahawks open up their offense against some sub-par defenses. The addition of Jimmy Graham will loom large for the Hawks this season. A big physical target in the middle of the field should open up the outside, and the element of surprise will always be with the play action and read option. Wilson had a monster season on the ground in 2014, rushing for 849 yards and 6 scores. In addition to his amazing rushing stats, Wilson threw for over 3400 yards and 20 touchdowns, while only having 7 interceptions. In a sort of contract year, expect only top level play from Wilson in 2015. In terms of consistency, Russell was at 69% last year, good for 7th among quarterbacks. The schedule shapes up nicely for Wilson and the Seahawks passing attack this season as well. They will face the 11th best schedule against pass defenses, averaging 17.56. They will only face 5 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. At 35th overall in ADP his price might be a little bit high for my liking, but he has multiple ways to score you points.

Image source: fanthem.com

Last but not least for this article, Eli Manning. I've never been much of an Eli guy, but I am kind of interested in him this season. I do need to hear some good things about the shape of the offensive line for the Giants, and I would like to see Victor Cruz back by the beginning of the season, but it is hard to deny the talent we saw from Odell Beckham Jr. last season. Eli threw for 4410 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, with only 14 interceptions. The new uptempo offense seemed to suit him, and he was able to help make Odell a household name. Eli was tied for 10th in consistency last season at 56%. The Giants have the 6th best schedule in relation to pass defenses faced from 2014, averaging a rank of 19.37. They will only face 4 top 10 defenses from last year. Assuming that the Giants are able to lock down the line, and Cruz can still play, Eli could be a steal at an ADP of 99 overall.

So as you can see, yes there are some elite guys out there. They will never be bad selections, but are they necessary? If you can acquire top level talent at other positions that will not be available later in the draft, you can still find your value guys later in the draft.

Schedules That Set Up Well

2015-06-20T22:11:00.002-07:00

I entered a conversation on twitter about a month back about Julio Jones. My input was similar to my recent article where I lauded Jones for his talents, and also noted that his schedule was set up for him to be huge this season. A participant in this conversation said you can't rely on schedule strength from last year. Why not? Don't we need a reason to draft guys? If you see something that puts one player above others in your mind, is it not valid? This inspired me to take a look at some teams that have favorable schedules for the 2015 season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the 28th ranked schedule. Their opponents in 2015 were a combined 108-146-2, a winning percentage of .425. When you look just a bit deeper you find that the Bucs are providing Jameis Winston a lovely soft landing spot. The Tampa Bay passing offense will face defenses that average the 22nd ranked pass defense last season. They will not face any of the top 10 pass defenses from last season; in fact only playing 4 games against teams inside the top 15 last year. This should offer bountiful opportunities to Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and if he can stay healthy Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.
The running game for Tampa is similarly facing a plus situation. The average rank of their opponents run defense is 19.6, and they face only 2 top 10 run defenses. I am not quite sure what will happen with the running back depth chart, but keep a watch on their reports, and as a guy comes to the front of the pack, targeting him in your drafts might be a good idea.

The Dallas Cowboys have the 24th ranked schedule in the league for 2015. Their opponents record for 2014 was 119-136-1 for a win percentage of .467. Losing DeMarco Murray could be a big blow to their running game with no clear successor, but their line is just so good. Dallas will only face 3 top 10 run defenses through the entire season and the average rank of their opponents defenses is 17. Combined with the talent of their line, that should set up whoever wins the job as feature back for the Cowboys pretty well.
The passing game took a step back last season, but might be forced to step forward again this season. If Dallas cannot find a back to be successful behind their top level offensive line, they might need to rely on Tony Romo and the passing game. Their opponents defenses won't be too terrible to face off against, averaging a rank of 18th against the pass. The Cowboys will only face 4 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Obviously Dez Bryant is always a great selection at receiver. We often hear of the breakout 3rd season for a wide receiver, and we might see that this year from Terrance Williams. He scored 8 touchdowns last year on only 37 catches. I would only look at him as a late round guy who has some upside potential. If he can be more consistent you may get some value from him.

The Philadelphia Eagles have the23rd ranked schedule for the 2015 season. Their opponents record for 2014 was 121-134-1, a win percentage of .475. The addition of DeMarco Murray to the backfield running behind a top tier offensive line from last season should excite people. The Average Run Defense the Eagles will face this season is 15.5, and they will only face 5 top 10 teams from last season. Ryan Mathews is a slightly confounding component to the Philadelphia backfield, but it seems likely that DeMarco will get the bulk of the carries.
The passing game is set up even better for the Eagles this season. The average of pass defenses from last season the Eagles will face this year is 19.62, and they will only face 2 top 10 pass defenses from last season. In my opinion this should push Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor up your boards a bit. The quarterback situation in Philly is still murky, as Mark Sanchez ended last season with the starting job, but the eagles brought in Sam Bradford, who was still injured after tearing his ACL last season with the Rams. Whichever guy wins this job just might be worth a late round pick to stash just in case.

Coming soon FantasyFootballFTW will be doing a more in depth breakdown of the schedule numbers for each team, both good and bad.

Forsett It, And Forget It

2015-06-05T12:24:00.000-07:00

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

Image source: justinforsett.sportsblog.com

Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

Image source: baltimoresun.com

generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

Image source: baltimoresportsandlife.com

Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.

The Wide Receiver I Want Most On My Teams In 2015

2015-06-04T16:06:00.000-07:00

Well it has been a long hiatus from writing on this blog, but I'm back. During the playoffs and the off season I didn't stop thinking, just hadn't written anything. But from this point forward, let's get back in the swing of fantasy football together.

The guy I am most interested in at the wide receiver position this season is Julio Jones. Jones was a monster last season for the Falcons offense, and I don't think that is going to change this season.

Image source myajc.com

In 2014 Julio caught 104 passes for 1593 yards and 6 scores. He did miss one game toward the end of the season after a huge game against Green Bay. Barring his broken screw in the foot in 2014 his durability has been decent. Jones played in 13 games his rookie season, 16 games in 2012, and 15 games last year.

Image source falcfans.com

In 2015 the Falcons will play the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their division is bad. Their schedule is great. Atlanta will face only 2 top 10 pass defenses from 2014. The average ranking of the pass defenses they will face in 2015 was 19.5, the lower half of the league. Another bonus is that the Falcons will play 10 games indoors next season, including their games at Dallas and New Orleans. The indoor surface tends to play faster than outdoor, which could lead to more production for Jones and the potent Atlanta passing attack. Listening to the Fantasy Football Today podcast from CBS this week, the guys said that Kyle Shanahan has a tendency to pepper one player with targets, and one would posit that Jones is the likely recipient of this.

Image source usatoday.com

Finally taking a look at the rest of the team, Roddy White isn't getting any younger. Harry Douglas is

gone. The rest of the WR corps is unproven. The defense, which will likely be improved, will probably not be a world beater. This could lead to many games being shootouts, ballooning Julio's stats even further.

I like Jones in the late first round if all the top tier running backs are off the board. If you have the sandwich picks at the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2 and he is still there, don't let him get past you, I think you'll be sorry.