While my Hebrew friends all over the world will be blowing the Shofar on Thursday to celebrate the start of the New Year, my fantasy football brothers and sisters will be gearing up for the start of a different kind of new year – the beginning of the NFL Season.

Yes, the NFL Season kicks off on Thursday night with a tasty matchup. The Superbowl Champion New Orleans Saints will host the offensive juggernaut Minnesota Vikings at 8:30 PM EST.

You are probably expecting the Vikings/Saints game to be a shootout resulting in your favorite fantasy studs scoring oodles of points for your team. However you may be surprised to learn that since the NFL Season started introducing games on Thursday night in 2002, only 4 games have resulted in 30 or more total points.

So should we expect another low scoring contest like when the Steelers and Titans combined for only 23 in 2009? Don’t bet on it, honey. Honey??? Did I just write “honey?” Ah yes, a perfect segue back to Rosh Hashanah. Did you know that apples and honey are a traditional snack eaten by Jews on Rosh Hashanah? Why apples and honey? Because, they are the perfect food to symbolize a sweet new year.

Transitioning back to fantasy football, I will tell you the Top 5 players in the Saints/Vikings most likely to have a “sweet” start to the “New Year.” Drum roll, please…

5. Reggie Bush – Reggie wasn’t impressive in 2009, but Bush is still solid in PPR leagues, especially leagues that give points for punt returns. He won’t get many carries but I expect him to gobble 4 or 5 receptions and break one for a score.

4. Percy Harvin – With Sidney Rice out until at least Game 6, expect Harvin to continue to gain Old Man Favre’s trust. Harvin can be especially deadly on kickoff returns. I am forecasting six catches for eighty yards and a pretty touchdown.

3. Pierre Thomas – Can we expect big things from Pierre this season? Oui. Oui. With no Mike Bell breathing down his neck, expect Thomas to continue to ripen like a bottle of fine French wine. 10 carries for 75 yards and 3 receptions for 20 yards sounds about right with one TD.

2. Adrian Peterson – Now that Chester Taylor packed his bags and is long gone, it’s likely that AP will start getting more involved in the passing game. Expect Favre’s old age to catch up with him which will mean more carries for Peterson. My crystal ball tells me AP will roll for 85 yards on 20 carries, gobble 15 yards on two catches, and score 2 touchdowns.

1. Drew Brees – Do you feel that? That’s not any sort of Brees. It’s Drew Freakin’ Brees. Sporting a new shiny Superbowl ring, the pressure is off. We can expect even more incredible stats than last year. He will start the year with 3 TDs and over 300 yards on his way to another MVP caliber season. And if you aren’t in awe of Brees yet: jump to 4 minutes and 6 seconds of this link. It’s truly incredible.

In fantasy play you have to gamble. Mark Clayton just fell into the perfect situation. He was a disappointment in Baltimore- NO DOUBT. Landing in St Louis might rejuvenate his career. Laurent Robinson is the #1WR in STL by default since Donnie Avery is done for the year. Amendola showed sparks of  fantasy interest last year but other then Amendola and Robinson the Rams have NOTHING. That is until today with the signing of Mark Clayton. He is an NFL veteren with minimal success. His stats last year do not blow you away – 34 catches, 480 yards, and 2 TDs. Moving over to STL where is only competition is Robinson, Avery, and Gilyard? Laughable. He will be their #1 WR by week 6. This also helps Sam Bradford develop into a legit QB at the NFL level. At least he has a shot now to actually complete some passes. I am very curious to see how Bradford and Clayton connect.  If they find mojo you may see them both looking groovy on Sportscenter.

This is a situation that I will watch closely. Clayton isn’t worth picking up at this point. He is worth keeping an eye on and if he gains some traction he will be a waiver play. I would be pleased if he finishes the year with 600 yards and 4 TDs. That would at least qualify for a bench spot on a fantasy roster. He has greater upside then this but I would be a fool if I were to project 700 yards and 7 TDs. Or would I? The fantasy gods will decide soon enough.

On a side note Julius Jones is back from the fantasy graveyard. Looks like Seattle cut him just to save some dollars. They signed him back on the cheap. So he is the #3 RB. Forsett is starting week 1 and Washington will get some touches and play special teams.

Michael Bush may not be out for 4 weeks after all. They say he has a smaller “wrap” and may be able to go week 1. This is good news for Bush owners. I still take a cautious approach. Keep reading to make sure that he is truly going to play week 1.

MJD is back at practice and my heartburn is going away. Feel confident to start him week 1. He is a great play against the lowly Broncos.

Dixon has won the starting job as QB in PIT. I give Tomlin tons of credit here. I didn’t think he had the balls to start Dixon. Tommy you manned up! MAD PROPS! Dixon gives the Steelers the best chance to win. I feel this is an upgrade for Mendy and may hurt Ward every so slightly as they may dial back the passing plays.

Scotty is covering the gab tomorrow so give him some love. We also sponsored a podcast from  fftoolbox so I welcome the new readers! Get ready to enjoy flukie’s random fantasy fibbets! They are truly priceless.

TJ Housh shocked us all and signed with Baltimore. This is madness. He has ZERO value in Baltimore. They already have Derrick Mason for the possession receptions and Boldin for the “big play” threat. Some will tell you that Boldin is more the possesion type. So if you view Boldin as such then Baltimore may be dialing back their passing game and going with a more dink and dunk system. I thought for sure this was the year they were going to let Flacco air it out (being his third year and all). Maybe they are going to keep it short and simple. Now Flacco has 3 SOLID WRs to throw to. Housh and Mason now cancel out each others value. Both receivers now fall into WR3/4 status until they show me otherwise.

When Stallworth returns I could see Derrick Mason being outright cut.  By the time Stallworth gets back Housh will know the playbook in his sleep. With Housh there Mason’s place on the team evaporates. Especially if Stallworth can give that deep threat. Maybe Boldin will surprise me and turn into a deep threat machine. Stranger things have happened.  Bottom Line – Mason becomes useless by week 6 and Housh turns into a low #3/high #4 WR.

Darrell Revis finally signed with the NYJ. Revis Island returns. Upgrade the JETS D back to their former #1 ranking in fantasy play.

This is it. The final cuts for NFL teams have happened. Some interesting cuts did occur. Julius Jones was cut. I admit when I am wrong and I was wrong about Jones. I thought Julius Jones may have been able to hang on for one more year and give some bye week replacement coverage on fantasy teams. I missed the boat on this one. Leon Washington’s value skyrockets. It looks like Forsett is the starter and Washington will handle special teams duties and 3rd down plays. Forsett will be a serviceable RB2/3 and Washington is the bye week replacement play.

Matt Leinhart was cut. Ken Whisenhunt soured on Leinhart quickly. Derek Anderson won that job by default. This is a big boost for the passing game in Arizona. Larry Fitz should be thanking his lucky stars. Anderson will take a risk down field and chuck the ball. At least this gives Fitz a chance to make a play. Leinhart wouldn’t take this chance and was cut because of it. Anderson better perform because Whisenhunt said the best QB in camp was Max Hall. If Anderson falters don’t be shocked to see Hall get his chance. That being said I still feel Anderson is worth a backup QB on your roster. If Fitz and Anderson find a connection fantasy happiness will occur.

TJ Housh was cut from Seattle. He just isn’t a fit for their new offense. Mike Williams now gets the starting nod along with Deion Branch. I grabbed Mike Williams as a flier in a few leagues. Mainly because he is tall and might get looks in the red zone. The Seattle offense won’t be too hot this year so their WRs don’t excite me. I was high on Golden Tate going into this year but he has admitted that he is not ready for the NFL game. Tate is going to need another year to get up to speed. He may be forced into the spotlight with Branch and Williams starting. This is perhaps the worst starting pair of WRs in the NFL.  Branch is out there in a ton of leagues. I just don’t see his value and don’t recommend him in any format.

That parlays me into the Washington Redskins. As of this moment the starting pair of WRs is Santana Moss and Joey Galloway. I still can’t believe that my offensive genious Mike Shanahan would start a 38 year old WR. My gut says Housh lands in Washington. If he does he immediately increases Santana Moss’s value. Moss is an older DeSean Jackson. Housh will force the defenses to stay honest and open up the field for Moss. Both Moss and Housh will be mid to low WR2 if they play alongside one another. I believe in Shanahan he is perhaps the greatest offensive mind I have seen in my generation.

The Vikings decided to enter the season with only 4 WRs – Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Greg Lewis, and Greg Camarillo. This is HUGE for Harvin. His value rises and I feel confident he will have a much larger role in the offense. He is not only the #2WR but he is also returning punts. If your league also gives you credit for return yardage then Harvin is your man! I venture to say Berrian and Harvin put up similiar numbers this year. Greg Camarillo may also be worth a flier especially if the Vikes don’t snag Housh. Don’t expect Camarillo to do too much early it will take him 3-4 games to catch onto the offense.

I referenced Chris Ivory in a previous post as a possible sleeper RB in New Orleans. He injured himself though he was not cut from the team. This means that New Orleans and I are on the same page since he made the 53 team roster. Keep an eye on him when he gets healthy. He may be a valuable mid season waiver claim.

The Washington Redskins RB core has came together. Clinton Portis is the starter. Larry Johnson is still the #2. Keiland Williams is the #3. Watch Williams as the year goes on. I could easily see him overtaking Larry Johnson. I also touted Larry Johnson early on in this preseason. I have to call a spade a spade. LJ is done. I have no faith in his game at this point.

This is the end of the drips and drabs of cuts that I feel are relevant. I hope this helps you all sure up your fantasy roster. I’ll be back as more news develops.

One of our loyal readers AC Slater challenged me to a fantasy sleeper draft royale. The kicker? The players had to have an ADP of 120 or greater (cbssports rankings). We drafted 10 players – 4 WR, 3 RB, 2 QB, and 1 TE. We are following standard PPR scoring. AC believes my knowledge in sleepers is flawed. This “contest” will show my superiority at finding the diamonds in the rough. Here’s the draft breakdown:
 
ROUND 1 – I took the best player available in Johnny Knox at ADP 120. It is obvious now that Knox is the #1 WR in Chicago. I feel he has breakout speed and potential for a big year. AC took D Aromshudu as an obvious tit for tat play. Aromshudu is the slot receiver and will have value in this PPR format. Though both of us shouldn’t get too excited with Cutler throwing them the ball. He has looked erractic this preseason. ADVANTAGE – Flukie
 
ROUND 2 – I took B Berrian. Safe solid pick. He is the #1 in Minnesota (unless Housh lands there) and will be a poor man’s Rice. He doesn’t have Rice’s speed or elusiveness but he is a serviceable #1 on a Super Bowl caliber team. AC took D Sproles. Sproles has fallen on hard times in fantasy play. People have overlooked him with the emergence of Ryan Matthews. The burial of Sproles is premature. He does have value in PPR leagues and he will get his touches. He is the 3rd down back and is still doing punt and kick returns. Sproles is similar to a Reggie Bush. ADVANTAGE – Flukie
 
ROUND 3 – I took my bitch Jabar Gaffney. I stand by my predictions of 1100 yards and 10 TDs. With  projected numbers like that I would be a fool not to take him. AC Slater took D Amendola. Not a bad pick Amendola seems to have developed a good thing with Bradford. Laurent Robinson is still the #1 there so Amendola has competition. Bradford has much to learn and will make his mistakes early. ADVANTAGE – Flukie
 
ROUND 4 – I took my “huggy bear” Kareem Huggins.  I drafted before Ward was even cut. That shows how much I believe in the bear. The Cadillac will break down and this undrafted rookie will show the NFL what he is made of. AC drafted Donald Brown. Though Brown has looked awful in preseason he is the heir apparent to Addai. Addai is in the last year of his contract. This means that Indy will want to give Brown plenty of work to see if he can handle the load. ADVANTAGE – AC
 
ROUND 5 – I drafted Marshawn Lynch hoping that he may somehow someway work his way into some one’s offense. That was a bad dream. He is stuck in the cold of Buffalo riding the pine. We all know how cold that pine can be. AC drafted Leon Washington. A GREAT upside pick with much potential. Coach Carroll is not happy with his RB core and this may very well open up the door for Washington. ADVANTAGE – AC
 
ROUND 6 -   I took Tashard Choice figuring either Barber or Jones would get hurt. Next thing you know rumors are swirling of his impending trade. Whether he is traded or not his value is minimal unless there is an injury. I would love to see Choice end up in Oakland and we all know Al Davis is a crazy. AC took Vince Young. I’m not a Young fan but no one can deny that he played fantastic in the last 8 games of 2009. This is a make or break it year for Young. ADVANTAGE – AC
 
ROUND 7 – I took Jason Campbell. I had high hopes but then the WR core began to collapse. Schilens is injured AGAIN and Heyward-Bey is “fatigued.” At least Campbell has Louis Murphy, Zach Miller, and Darren McFadden to throw to. AC took Mohammed Massaquoi. I love Massaquoi this year. He has developed a nice rapport with Jake Delhomme. To quote another fantasy site “Jake likes to throw to Mohammed’s.” Massaquoi may be a pleasant surprise to fantasy owners. ADVANTAGE – AC
 
ROUND 8 – This is the battle of young WRs. I took Mike Williams TB. He was the 4th round pick and beat out the 2nd round pick Arrelious Benn for the #1 WR spot. TB will be 3-13 this year. This will cause TB to “air” the ball out in the second half. Plenty of time for Williams to accrue garbage points. AC took his boyfriend Mike Thomas. You know the “A-10 player of the year.” If I have to hear AC ramble about Mike Thomas one more time I may vomit. Williams is the better receiver year – nuff said. ADVANTAGE – Flukie
 
ROUND 9 – I took Greg Olsen. I had to take a TE sometime so I rolled the dice with Olsen. I figured Martz can use all the help he can get in the Windy City. The only problem is that Martz HAS NEVER used a TE. The joke is on me. AC took Matt Stafford. I truly believe that Stafford is the real deal and will end the season as a TOP 15 QB. They have finally given him more then one weapon. Now they have Jahvid Best, CJ, Nate Burleson, and Tony Scheffler. Stafford can spread the ball around and show his football IQ now that the options are in place. ADVANTAGE – AC
 
ROUND 10 – I took Josh Freeman. He is the most undervalued QB in the NFL. No one is giving him any credit. He has looked good in camp and although he has a thumb injury he will be ready by week 1. He has potential but he will have to wade through the slop. At least he has a promising set of young WRs and a solid TE in Kellen Winslow.  AC took Aaron Hernandez to wrap things up. I feel Hernandez has upside. He is more of a pass catching TE. He has competition with Gronkowski who is also another rookie TE in NE. Gronkowski is more of your traditional blocking TE although he has caught 2 TDs in preseason. NE does run multiple two TE sets so I still feel Hernandez has greater potential. ADVANTAGE – Flukie
 
As the season progresses AC Slater will provide us with scoring updates. I pride myself on identifying the sleepers. I’m simply reinforcing my skills in this friendly competition. The one thing you know about  me is that I will dig deep to find those sleepers no one else sees.

With the MJD scare I decided to grab James Davis. I’m not a fan of having to be in the “Defensive” position of grabbing an extra RB. It looks like MJD is going to be just fine (thanks JS). I thought all along that he would start week 1 and I feel certain that is a lock. I’m still a touch nervous hence my interest in Cleveland.

Who will get the carries in Cleveland? Its a clusterbleep. That is the question that will torment fantasy players all year. Obviously, Jerome Harrison is the #1 back. For whatever reason Mangini doesn’t seem to feel the love when it comes to JH. The RB situation is beyond muddy. Brownsgab breaks down the RB postion below:

“Running Back (5): Jerome Harrison, Peyton Hillis, Lawerence Vickers, James Davis, Chris Jennings

Harrison is going to be the starter since Hardesty has been sidelined with a torn ACL. Vickers and Hillis add another dimension to the Browns running game that they haven’t had in my lifetime. Two backs that are going to out muscle you and you can’t do anything about it.  This is where it gets dicey, Davis or Jennings? Davis had the outstanding preseason last year before he got injured in the season opener. Jennings has proved he is a good special teams player and can be an average back if needed during the season.  With Montario going down the Browns could keep both of these guys and that’s exactly what i think is going to happen”

I agree with his ranking to some degree. I don’t feel Vickers and Jennings will touch the rock. It comes down to 3 – Harrison, Davis, and Hillis. Harrison will start the year getting the majority of the carries. Davis most likely will only see 5-10 touches per game.  At the goal line and short yardage “the great white hope”  Hillis will get the rock. This makes a muddy situation for fantasy players. James Davis isn’t for the faint of heart. However, if your in a dynasty or keeper league and your weak at RB Davis might be worth a flier. Let’s be honest here- Davis is an injury away from being the #1 RB.

***Full Discloser – I also feel that Chris Ivory in New Orleans is worth a flier. Rumor out of New Orleans is that Thomas won’t be used as much at the goal line and that Ivory will be taking goal line touches. Ivory seems more suited for TD only leagues and not PPR. However I am still watching him closely. Last year Lyndell Hamilton and Mike Bell had weeks of relevance. Same may occur for Chris Ivory. Especially if an injury occurs to either Thomas or Bush.***

Another situation worth monitoring is Tashard Choice and possibly Marion Barber. Just read on rotoworld that Choice may be dealt before the start of the season. If he lands with a team that is short at RB depth fantasy players like myself may salivate. Keep monitoring the situation due to its fluid nature. I am 99.9% sure that Barber is not going anywhere.

Just a quick blurb from the Fluke on MAJOR injuries that will affect fantasy play. Beanie Wells hurt his knee. The good news is that he didn’t go back into the looker room. This just improves my position on starting Tim Hightower week 1 in fantasy play.

Byron Leftwich tore his MCL.  Tough call on who they will start at QB. Obviously Dixon is next in line to start. I have some serious thoughts that Pittsburgh might pull the trigger and run to grab Leinhart as some insurance. I honestly believe Dixon will start and will surprise some people. I can’t recommend picking him up but I  would keep a close eye on him especially if you are starting Mr Whiny aka Jay Cutler.

Michael Bush is out 4 to 6 weeks. Man oh Man Oakland has quickly turned back into a disaster situation. I’m so annoyed by this because I really believe they would have a bounce back year. I still am pulling for Cable because I believe he is a legit NFL coach. This injury moves McFadden into fantasy relevance. Feel confident to start him without hesitation.

Montario Hardesty is injured. Not sure if it is his knee or a shinn injury. Either way he left the locker room on crutches. Good news for Harrison owners is that he is the starter. With some competition behind him in James Davis and Peyton Hillis. Lets not forget James Davis made some noise for a week or so in fantasy last year until he landed on the IR. Harrison is startable week one since they are playing KC a team with pitiful defense.

Hope the injury updates keep ya’all current…

At this time of the year everyone is in a mad dash to sure up their rosters. Make your quick adjustments and let it fly. Here are some quick fibbits to help you on your roster day decisions. What’s a fibbit? It’s flukie’s buck the trend advice. Take it for what it is.

MJD is starting to make me and a million more nervous. Last I read he “may” be held out for 2 weeks to start the season. I feel that MJD is going to start week 1 and be productive. I do however worry about weeks 2 and 3. It’s a waiting game with MJD. The cat is out of the hat so the odds of moving him to an unsuspecting owner is low. If you haven’t drafted yet I would shift over to Frank Gore, Michael Turner, or Ray Rice in the 5 spot. You have been warned.

I feel Tim Hightower has his most value right now in week 1. Whisenhunt is VERY loyal to his vets. Whisenhunt is already shaking things up changing QB and heading in the DA direction. He is not going to have DA hand off to Wells week 1. Hightower is still better at picking up the blitz and blocking. Hightower is SURE handed and experienced. Wells is the better back but Hightower is better for this situation. Feel confident to start Hightower if you don’t like your WR2/3 matchups week 1. I’m going to take my own advice and start Hightower over Santana Moss. I think Dmac is going to be gimpy and Washington has Dallas week 1. I’ll take the Hightower VS St Louis matchup ANY DAY over the Moss Dallas play. Hightower will lose value as the year progresses. Wells is going to get his share of time just not until mid season. ***Wells injured his knee after I wrote this piece. The severity has not yet been determined***

Kareem “Huggy Bear” Huggins got the RB2 spot behind Cadillac. If you are daily flukie readers you all know I broke that story EARLY last week. Derrick Ward has been cut and is off to the RB graveyard. I have high hopes for Huggy Bear. Once the Cadillac breaks down the bear moves into the starting lineup. Load up on the Bear if you are short at RB depth.

Hit the panic button if you are going into week 1 with Jay Cutler at the helm. His immaturity is shining through. He is already crying about the play calling. He will be running for his life this year with a HORRIFIC o-line. I see INTERCEPTIONS galore. Do as my staff has done and try to secure another QB anticipating death. Scotty traded for Big Ben the Molester. Not a bad play figuring he can ride out Cutler until he implodes and roll on over to the Molester by week 5.

I heard a rumor that Minnesota is making a late play for VJAX. That team is doing everything in their power to earn a Superbowl birth. I give that owner a lot of street cred. This story is just breaking as I write this. I’ll contact Adam over at vikingsgab to see how true this is. If it happens all you morons who took VJAX might be saved.

I was high on Jahvid Best as you all know. My gut was right and there is a good chance Kevin Smith will be cut from Detroit. This ends ALL speculation of a time share at RB in Detroit. Not that I ever thought there was going to be one. Jahvid Best is going to be a rock star. Feel free to draft him in the mid rounds. He is definately undervalued.

I’ll have more fibbets as the days continue in the lead up to fantasy football. I’m mobile so if my spelling in this piece is off gimmie a pass

———editor’s note: Adam at vikingsgab gives a 2.32% chance that VJAX ends up a Viking!

His actual quote on the topic “The Vikings are unlikely to go after Vincent Jackson. They already have one of the biggest payrolls in football for 2010 (thanks to Favre) and giving up picks and a ton of cash doesn’t seem like a likely scenario. VJax will almost certainly be in Seattle this year, or not playing at all”

This is Mr. Manners, here to answer your questions about fantasy football etiquette. Let’s get started:

Dear Mr. Manners,

My leaguemates don’t respond to my trade offers. How many days should pass before it is considered impolite?

Signed, Antsy

******

Dear Antsy,

It an age where everyone and their mother has e-mail, text message accessibility, and internet connectivity on their phone, there aren’t many excuses to not respond to a trade offer within 48 hours. Of course, most people work and some people travel. Heck, some guys enjoy spending their free time with their families! Rather than focus on an isolated incident, look for a pattern. If an individual consistently takes days to respond (or worse, doesn’t respond at all), he is being rude and you may want to look elsewhere for a trading partner.

*****

Dear Mr. Manners,

There is this jerk in my league who is always making fun of me. He crosses a line every time he does it. It is making fantasy football very stressful for me. What should I do?

Signed, High Blood Pressure

*****

Dear Pressure,

Message board taunting and outlandish polls are a necessary part of the fantasy football experience. As long as the perceive insults are directed at the player’s team, I am all in favor of trash talk. “Crossing a line” would be taking shots that are unrelated to a person’s team, such as making fun of someone’s wife or relishing at an owner losing his job, etc. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun. If you ever get to the point where it causes you more anguish than pleasure, it’s time to get a new hobby. I hear coin collecting is a blast!

*****

Dear Mr. Manners,

I get a lot of gruff when I send out trade offers. People accuse me of insulting their intelligence. Is there anything wrong with sending out lopsided proposals with the hope that someone will be interested?

*****

Signed, Trader Joe

*****

Dear Joe,

By all means, if you think you can pull the wool over someone’s eyes, go for it! I don’t think there is anything wrong with sending a bold offer, no matter how wacky it seems. Just because you don’t like a player, doesn’t mean someone else doesn’t. Just keep in mind, however, that if you grow a reputation for peddling crap, you run the risk that in the future your offers will not even be read.

*****

Do you have a question for Mr. Manners?   If so, post it in the Comments section and I will reply in a timely fashion.

I’m a huge fantasy addict. We all know that. That is why I provide you all with such amazing information. Well fantasyknuckleheads is a great site to bounce over to when flukie’s advice isn’t quite enough.

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