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Game Previews: Week 7

2011-10-20T00:26:00.000-07:00

By Cory

Week 7 is upon us and there is still a great lack of clarity throughout the NFL. Marquee players are turning in dud performances, and no-names continue to put together highlight reels? This inconsistency is almost enough to make fantasy players just root for a team and watch the game for the game…crazy to think! With all this unpredictability, you may find yourself ready to pack it in and try fantasy hockey instead, but all hope is not lost. For starters, hockey sucks so you should get that thought right out of your head. And if you’re still feeling disillusioned by Tim Hightower’s 0 points or by the fact that your stellar Minny defense earned you negative points, here are some helpful pointers that should get you back on track in week 7.

Texans at Titans

Matt Schaub has still been able to produce even without Andre Johnson, who will once again be out this weekend. Owen Daniels, as we've mentioned, is the most consistent beneficiary of Johnson’s absence, but the Texans still need to spread the ball around to be effective. Jacoby Jones lived up to the hype last week with solid yardage and a score. The targets will continue to be there; it is just always a question mark whether or not they’ll be able to connect. But Jones has big play ability and is showing some chemistry with Schaub so he may not be a bad start. Arian Foster continues to be a force to be reckoned with and even in this tough matchup he will be too involved to ever consider benching…real controversial stuff here…real controversial.

For the Titans, Nate Washington continues to be a viable option in this passing attack. He hasn’t had an explosive game even without Kenny Britt’s presence, but he is getting enough targets to at least be worth a flex consideration. Damian Williams has also been stepping up in the receiving game with 11 targets in the Titans last game. Williams is only worth monitoring at this point but if he turns in another solid outing in this surprisingly competent passing game, he may make it to our next Working the Waiver column. Jared Cook has also taken on a significant role in this offense and in a week like this where many of the top fantasy tight-ends are on bye, Cook is a must start. Without Mario Williams, the Texans are much easier to throw on so this should be an interesting matchup.

Bears at Buccaneers

LeGarette Blount missed practice yesterday and is expected not to play this weekend again meaning that Earnest Graham will be the workhorse back for the Bucs. Graham looked impressive last week closing out the game against the Saints and gaining over 100 yards rushing. I would temper my expectations in a tougher matchup, but Graham is also valuable in the receiving game so he should get enough touches to be an RB2 especially if he can get into the end-zone. The rest of the Bucs have been pretty disappointing. Preston Parker was one of our projected sleeper picks but without the score last week he would have been a bust player (and we doubt many started him after his 13 yard performance in week 5). However, Arrelious Benn is back and healthy now, and ready to resume his number 2 receiving gig opposite the…uhhh…”Slightly Better” Mike Williams. Benn had a great game last week with 83 yards and a score, but the Bucs have been yet to establish a solid passing game to make me believe anything more will really come out of any of these guys. Even Josh Freeman has been a bit of a bust for fantasy owners (not for Bucs fans though!) so I’d be worried about starting him this week unless you have Tom Brady of Mike Vick.

Chargers at Jets

All sorts of good news out of Chargers practice yesterday! Vincent Jackson was a limited participant in practice but he is on schedule to be able to go this weekend. It’s not a great matchup against Revis, but if Jackson is good to go he should be in your starting roster. Antonio Gates also returned to practice yesterday and looked as good as ever according to Phil Rivers (and you know we can always trust what a player says!). If Gates is able to go, this will put a lot of pressure on the Jets secondary and hopefully free up Jackson for some nice plays. If Gates is active, it’s time to start rolling with him again. Mike Tolbert was also back in practice yesterday, though he too was slightly limited. The Chargers anticipate having Tolbert back on the field this weekend, which means his committee with Ryan Mathews will continue. However, Tolbert’s role has been declining and he has not scored recently so he is a risky play even against this Jets run defense that made Reggie Bush look like a hard-nosed runner. If Gates and Jackson really are both back to 100%, there might be trouble for Malcom Floyd owners. Floyd is coming off the best game of his season but has not gained more than 3 catches in a single game; he is just too risky to play.

Who’s afraid of the big bad Jets? Not me! Well, unless you own any of them on your fantasy team. Mark Sanchez struggled throwing the ball against the Dolphins…wait a minute that must be a typo – nope, Sanchez really struggled against the Dolphins. Unfortunately, this does not bode well for Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. Both of these receivers are getting targets galore, especially Holmes, but Sanchez just can’t deliver a catchable ball at the right time. Burress is showing his age in his inability to gain separation from coverage and shouldn’t be started. I’m still clinging to a hope and a prayer that Holmes can keep scoring so he can have some fantasy value but he’s far from a sure thing. Shonn Greene keeps getting chances and he keeps doing nothing. Someone should have told Rex Ryan that you need a running game in order to have a ground and pound offense, and the Jets just don’t. LaDainian Tomlinson is still getting involved, but the Jet offense looks so pathetic that 50 all-purpose yards is optimistic thinking out of the once great LT (or LT2 for the Lawrence Taylor fans out there).

Broncos at Dolphins

Silly Broncos, the NFL is for professionals! Tim Tebow will be the new starting quarterback for the Broncos now, and while this may produce great value for Tebow owners, it basically concedes that this will be a “rebuilding season” for the Broncos. To make that point clearer, the Broncos dealt away their only legitimate threat on offense by sending Brandon Lloyd to the Rams. Tebow may be worth a start against the lowly Dolphins pass-rush, but don’t be fooled, most – if not all – of his value will come on the ground. Tebow lost his big play receiver and Eric Decker will now be the number one, but there is no point starting him until we see how he clicks with Tebow. Demaryius Thomas will most likely step in as the number 2 receiver opposite Decker, but we really can’t say anything about what these guys can do until we see Tebow start a game at a competitive point in the season. Willis McGahee has taken over early down duties from Knowshon Moreno, making Moreno just a third-down back. This news sucks for No-Show owners, but is great news for McGahee owners who will have a solid starting runningback against a susceptible Dolphins defense.

If there is anything good to be said about the Dolphin massacre that was Monday Night Football, it is that Matt Moore is not afraid to take chances – stupid chances, yes – but chances nonetheless. Moore targeted Brandon Marshall like it was his job, and as Brett would say “He wasn’t ‘Forgetting Brandon Marshall,’ did you see what I did there!?” Marshall looks like a viable option with Moore at the helm. Daniel Thomas also returned to action this last week and had a mediocre outing. As much as I don’t want to root for Thomas, I would chalk his struggles up to his lingering injury and the fact that Reggie Bush aka “He Who Must Not Be Named” was able to run effectively…and the fact that the Fins were down the whole game didn’t do much to help the run game.

Falcons at Lions

The Falcons avoided the pass last week because they didn’t need to go to the air. Expect a different game this week against the Lions. Matt Ryan has looked mediocre so far this season and will not have an easy matchup against the Lions, but you gotta like his potential to be throwing the ball a lot which makes him a solid start. The same can be said for Roddy White who should have a rebound performance after his stinker last weekend against the Panthers. Julio Jones missed practice yesterday which doesn’t bode well for his chances of playing this weekend so be sure to check the injury reports before you’re locked in on Jones. If Jones plays he should be started, but if Jones can’t go, Harry Douglas will get the start opposite White. I don’t love Douglas and since Jones should be back this week or the following, I wouldn’t bother considering him. Michael Turner got it done in a major way last weekend and there’s no reason to bench him.

Be sure to check back to confirm, but all signs seem to indicate that Jahvid Best will be sidelined this weekend with a concussion meaning Maurice Morris will get the lion’s share of the carries. Morris is a solid runner and has good hands so he makes for a very decent option this week.

Redskins at Panthers

Hey Mike Shanahan, thanks for all the years of runningback headaches! Ryan Torain got the start last week against the lowly Philly run D and did nothing with it. Roy Helu came in as a change of pace back and racked up 6 big ones on 2 carries, while our boy Tim Hightower did – well – nothing!. What is the lesson to be learned from all of this? Screw these guys until things shake out. Torain remains the nominal starter but with Hightower likely back to full health this week this really is a three-headed monster. Fred Davis is a great option at the tight-end spot in this matchup especially with his partner in crime, Chris Cooley, out this weekend.

Cam Newton continues to make owners happy even if he can’t make Carolina fans happy. Steve Smith is still a must start, but fellow must starter Greg Olsen is combatting turf toe and was held out of practice yesterday. Olsen has been a consistent option at tight-end and if he is unable to go, he will be replaced by Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is a great tight-end but he is past his prime and has no chemistry established with Newton to make him worth consideration. DeAngello Williams and Jonathan Stewart owners beware, these guys are a committee by all meanings of the word and can give you a great performance or a No-No (you thought I forgot my own catchphrase didn’t you?) performance on any given Sunday. I still like Stewart more but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Chiefs at Raiders

Matt Cassel has turned in back to back impressive outings and capped off his last game with 4 touchdowns. Given, he won’t be playing the Colts again this week, but Cassel could be a decent desperation option for Brady and Vick owners, especially since the Chiefs have no real running game to speak of. The resurgence of Cassel has meant good things for Dwayne Bowe who has been solid since a rocky and inconsistent start to the season. Also getting into the fray is Steve Breaston who had 50 yards and 2 scores against the Colts. Breaston is a risky play but if Cassel is going to be throwing for 250 yards, Breaston is really the only other player who can catch a ball. I do mean to offend you Keary Colbert, and I will not even make a “Colbert Report” joke because that is how little I care about the Chiefs number 3 receiver. As for the “Carrousel of Crap” aka the Chiefs backfield, Jackie Battle really seems to be running away with the starting gig. Thomas Jones and Dexter “Lack Luster” McCluster have had their chances and they have failed. They will likely still be involved in this game, but only Battle is worth considering.

As for my precious Raiders (if you haven’t noticed by my unashamed bashing of all other teams in the AFC West, I’m kind of a Raiders fan and will be attending this game), there is trouble at the quarterback position. The Raiders just broke the bank in one of the worst decisions of my fan-hood of the Raiders by acquiring Carson Palmer. Palmer is on his way out and his value has declined in each of the past 5 seasons. Impressive huh? What does this mean for fantasy? Nothing. The Raiders receivers were already bye-week fill-ins at best, and until we see any kind of production with Palmer at the helm, I’d steer clear of DHB, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford. What this really means is we can see more of the same out of the running game in Oakland. Darren McFadden will continue his dominance this week and Michael Bush will occasionally come in on short-yardage, but Bush is not getting enough touches to warrant starting him unless DMC goes down. Sebastian Janikowski should be started; I have never mentioned a kicker and I never will again, but the Raiders are a stalling offense all the way and especially with a new quarterback, Janikowski may have the best fantasy day of any Raiders player.

Packers at Vikings

The Packers are too damn good, it’s really unfair. Aaron Rodgers looks like a kid playing Madden on Rookie mode going for the Hail Mary pass with 20 seconds left in the 4th quarter when you’re already up 98-6 because you really really wanted to hit a triple digit score. All Packers receivers are potential monsters or potential duds. Just ask Jermichael Finley whose performance this season has been a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs, but he is still the number 5 fantasy tight-end and is thus always a roster-lock in hopes that you catch him on an up day. Greg Jennings is likewise a must play, but the real question is what to make of James Jones and Jordy Nelson. I recommended starting both these guys last week and they made me look smart despite only getting 3 catches between the two of them (that went for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns). I continue to roll the dice with both these guys in my deeper leagues and accept that they burn me because I know what they might get me and I’d prefer that upside over starting someone like Malcom Floyd. I still like James Starks more than Ryan Grant, but that little Bromance of mine might not matter anymore as the Packers really are just a passing team. Starks is good for handful of points, but he will surrender goal-line duties to John Kuhn making Starks a very low ceiling kind of player.

Rams at Cowboys

The Rams? Oh yeah I’ve heard of them! They suck, right? But in the infamous words of Sammy Jackson in Jurassic Park, “Hold on to your butts!” The Rams just acquired Brandon Lloyd and will test out their shiny new toy this weekend. The only downside? They’re still the Rams, and Sam Bradford will likely miss action this week which will greatly hamper Lloyd’s value. Monitor the Bradford injury, but even if Bradford doesn’t play, it’s tough to bench Brandon Lloyd.

Felix Jones will miss some serious time with his high ankle sprain which means the Boys backfield is now a committee between DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice. Choice is extremely talented and the more proven veteran, but all indications seem to be that this is Murray’s job to lose now. The Cowboys have expressed a great deal of confidence in Murray as an every down back and there is no reason not to play Murray if you got him (or add him if he’s still available!) in this cakewalk matchup against the Rams.

Colts at Saints

Well hot dog, I just sure like this Curtis Painter character. He is still making mistakes with the football and is far from a superstar, but he is on one of the greatest passing systems in the NFL and he still is surrounded by great options. In a game where the Colts will have to throw to be competitive, I like Painter and I really like Pierre Garcon. Garcon is the favorite target of Painter and has big play potential. Dallas Clark might finally be turning things around with solid yardage and a score so he might be worth another roll of the dice this week. Donald Brown has been outperforming Delone Carter in the past two weeks that they have been sharing the load so expect Brown to see his role continue. With that in mind, his role consists of being the number 3 runningback on a team that does not run the ball and that has a third string quarterback starting, sooooo maybe just steer clear of this whole Indy backfield.

Drew Brees even when he struggles can put together a solid fantasy outing with how many weapons he has. Unfortunately, this doesn’t help people who own his many weapons in trying to establish any consistency. At this point, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Darren Sproles are our must start guys. Mark Ingram is a scoring upside guy but if he doesn’t get to the end-zone he really is only worth a handful of points and the same can be said for Pierre Thomas minus the scoring upside. Lance Moore and Robert Meachem are homerun hitting wide receivers, but the Saints haven’t been throwing the homerun ball as often this season, and they certainly won’t need to deviate from that pattern against the Colts. Moore is still the better option, but neither of these guys are safe or desirable bets.

Ravens at Jaguars

Joe Flacco showed us what he can do when there is no pass rush last weekend and he looked very promising. I’m still a believer in Ed Dickson but he has yet to really wow me so I wouldn’t blame you if you cut bait on him. Hopefully the action out of Anquan Boldin from last week will carry through and he can realize the value that he was drafted at.

Happy Trails!

New Podcast!

2011-10-17T23:09:00.000-07:00

10/18: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Cory recap all the injuries to coaches, and a few to players. We analyze the Brandon Lloyd trade fallout, and tell you who to add to your roster!

Working the Waiver: Week 6

2011-10-17T20:15:00.000-07:00

Michael Crabtree (Owned in 42% of Yahoo Leagues)
We've mentioned him before, but he's still available in a majority of leagues, so snatch him up already! With Josh Morgan and Braylon Edwards out, Crabtree will be a target monster for a suddenly accurate Alex Smith. Crabtree hauled in 9 passes for 77 yards on 15 targets. We never said Smith could go deep, so Crabtree will be especially valuable in PPR leagues.

DeMarco Murray (10%)
Unfortunately, our boy Felix Jones suffered a high ankle sprain and is likely to miss 2-4 weeks. In his absence, Murray rushed for 32 yards on 10 carries, while his competition Tashard Choice ran for 14 yards on 5 carries. A small sample size, to be sure, but it looks like Murray is likely to get a majority of touches for the next few weeks. Murray gets some tasty matchups in the next 4 weeks against the Rams, Eagles, Seahawks, and Bills.

Maurice Morris (1%)
Jahvid Best suffered a concussion in the 4th quarter against the Niners. The severity is unknown at this point, but it's very possible Best misses time. Maurice Morris should be the primary back in his absence, with Keiland Williams helping out. Morris had 5 carries for 20 yards on Sunday. Morris would get a mixed bag of matchups coming up against the Falcons, Broncos, Bears, and Packers. The Lions are a passing team, which is why much of Best's value came from receiving yards. Morris also has nice hands so he should step in and fill that role nicely.

Fred Davis (43%)
Chris Cooley shattered a finger and is expected to miss the next six weeks. This certainly clears up the TE competition between Cooley and Fred Davis. Davis immediately stepped up with 6 catches for 95 yards. I'm not sure it matters whether Rex Grossman or John Beck is throwing the ball. Davis is leading all Redskins in receiving yards, despite poor showings in Weeks 3 and 4. With Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis, and Jermaine Gresham on byes this week, Fred Davis could prove to be the perfect pickup and plug this week. But his value ought to continue all season.

Greg Little (16%)
We talked up Little last week, and he responded, albeit in a modest way. Little was installed as the new starting X receiver during the bye, and then hauled in 6 passes for 72 yards. He should put up similar numbers going forward, making him a decent WR3 and a great PPR option.

Montario Hardesty (18%)
It will be hard to trade a disgruntled Peyton Hillis now that he's tweaked his hamstring. But whether he's traded or injured, there's an opportunity for Hardesty to step up. He ran for 35 yards on Sunday, and added 2 catches for 18 yards. He's only averaging 3.6 YPC, but he's certainly worth an add while we monitor Hillis.

Demaryius Thomas (1%)
Thomas is returning from an injury just in time to join a Brandon Lloyd-less receiving group. He's certainly got the talent to step in and be the number 2 target behind Eric Decker, but he's got to stay healthy. The Broncos' confidence in Thomas explains part of their willingness to part with Lloyd, so he's worth the speculative add.

Sam Bradford (47%)
Bradford has the talent, but he didn't have the receivers, until now. With Brandon Lloyd in the picture, Bradford would be a top add... except that he apparently has a high ankle sprain. Monitor his practice status this week, but he could finally realize his potential with the new receiver help. He passed for 321 yards on Sunday, so I'm excited to see what he can do with Lloyd on the field.

Danario Alexander (12%)
The Rams cut Mike Sims-Walker today, which means Alexander is the favorite to be the Rams WR2 opposite Brandon Lloyd going forward. Salas will likely stick in the slot, leaving Brandon Gibson as the competition for Alexander. He's been called the most talented receiver in this group (before Lloyd of course), so I'm adding Alexander in deeper leagues to see if he pans out.

Brandon Lloyd Is A Ram

2011-10-17T13:29:00.000-07:00

Throughout the preseason, I talked about trying to find "this year's Brandon Lloyd" - the receiver who would be the beneficiary of Josh McDaniel's pass-happy offense moving from Denver to St. Louis. It turns out this year's Brandon Lloyd is Brandon Lloyd! The Rams have probably the worst WR group in the NFL, after losing Danny Amendola to I.R., and scratching a healthy Mike Sims-Walker due to overall crappiness. I added Danario Alexander at 9AM yesterday in a few leagues when I learned of MSW's deactivation, thinking I could get him for free, before he's placed on waivers when the games start in case he blows up in his new #1 role. Sure enough, Alexander led the team with 91 yards on 6 catches and 10 targets. And then, right when I was about to pat myself on the back, Brandon Lloyd is traded to the Rams for a 6th round pick, taking off Alexander's shine. We'll see if Alexander can cement the new #2 role in St. Louis and maintain value, or whether he'll rotate with Brandon Gibson.

More importantly, this would be a huge boost to Lloyd's value going from a run-first offense to a pass-first offense with a much more accurate passer in Bradford than Tebow, but it looks like Sam Bradford has a high ankle sprain. Even in a pass-first offense, Lloyd's value will be limited by A.J. Feeley's weak 34-year-old arm. So keep a close eye on Bradford's status, but Lloyd makes for a decent trade target either way. Lloyd was averaging 70 yards per game, with zero TDs on the Broncos. Lloyd already knows this offense and will step in and immediately be the number one option next weekend against Dallas.

If and when Bradford gets healthy, he'll be an interesting option after being dropped in a majority of leagues. He has great accuracy and all he needs is a group of receivers who don't drop passes. Perhaps Lloyd will help him realize his potential.

In Denver, this clearly hurts Tim Tebow's value, but Tebow's value was never going to come from consistently connecting deep balls to Lloyd anyway. Tebow's value will come on the ground, and that won't change. Eric Decker should be the #1 receiver in Denver now. But it's always interesting to see who a new QB will jive with. For example, you'd think Reggie Wayne would always be the number one guy in Indy, but the switch from Collins to Painter made Pierre Garcon number one. And last year, when Stafford played, Calvin Johnson thrived. But when Shaun Hill played, both Detroit TEs were suddenly elite. My point is simply that we may not be able to automatically determine the pecking order until the new captain gets in there. If I had to rank Bronco receivers, I'd go (1) Eric Decker, (2) Demaryius Thomas, (3) Eddie Royal. But we'll have to wait and see where the chemistry lies with Tim Tebow.

New Podcast 10/14!

2011-10-14T01:45:00.000-07:00

10/14: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Kevin tell you some surprising sits and starts in the Jets-Dolphins game and Patriots-Cowboys game.

Hot or Not: Week 6

2011-10-13T19:32:00.000-07:00

HOT

Daniel Thomas v. NYJ 5
I'm only starting Thomas assuming he puts in a full practice on Friday or Saturday. The Jets have the league's premiere shutdown corner, but they're having trouble stopping the run. The Fins will want to start the game on the ground; my only concern is the possibility that the Jets get up big quick and then the Fins have to abandon the run. But the Jets offense is not exactly explosive, so Daniel Thomas should get his carries. Reggie Bush won't take many touches at all away from Thomas. In the two games Thomas has played this season, he has ran hard right up the middle, which is exactly where the Jets are susceptible (see BenJarvus Green-Ellis last week). And if your league awards points for sick haircuts, DT is even more valuable!

Mark Sanchez v. MIA 3
The Sanchize has exactly 2 passing TDs in 4 out of his 5 games (We all remember the one game where had zero TDs against the Ravens). The Dolphins are a mess; and I would feel even more confident in Sanchez if the Fins weren't coming off their bye. But he still makes for a solid start in MNF. The Jets say they'll "ground and pound," but I expect them to have more success through the air.

James Starks v. STL 4
I wrote on Monday that Starks is a risky flex start most weeks because the Packers just pass, pass, pass. But against the Rams, Starks should only need 15-18 touches to get solid fantasy production. After Ryan Grant lost a fumble, I expect this to be more of a 70-30 split against the Rams. Starks could also finally find the endzone.

Earnest Graham v. NO 24
The 31-year old is likely past his prime, but the Bucs will work him while they have him this week. The matchup is not easy, but Graham will see plenty of touches, and I could see 60 yards on the ground with 30 yards in the air. If 9 fantasy points makes Graham flex-worthy on your team, then plug him in.

Ryan Torain v. PHI 1
All eyes will be on the Redskins backfield this weekend. Torain should have the hot hand for now, but the split is unpredictable with Shanahan calling the shots. I would feel a little uncomfortable starting either Torain or Hightower, except for the fact that they're going against the number one most generous defense to opposing RBs. Thus, my uncertain belief that Torain will hopefully get 75% of the carries makes him worth starting in this matchup. In a pinch, you could even squeeze some fantasy points out of Timmy Hightower in deeper leagues.

Miles Austin v. NE 1
Don't hesitate to start Austin in his first week back from the hamstring injury. It made sense to bench Colston when he recovered ahead of schedule and barely played. But Austin was close to playing in Week 4. Then he had the bye and should be 100% now. In this juicy matchup. I cannot wait to get Austin back into my lineup.

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez v. DAL 8
Hernandez was limited in practice, which is worth monitoring. Assuming he plays, I don't want owners shying away from this duo out of a fear that they'll cancel each other out. Week 5 was disappointing for Gronkowski-owners and a little bit for Hernandez-owners. But in Weeks 1 and 2, both TEs produced big numbers at the same time. In what projects to be a shootout, I'm loving Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker as the Pats' leading receivers.

NOT

Matt Schaub v. BAL 31
Schaub is still probably a starter in most leagues unless you managed to pickup Cam Newton, but I don't have high hopes this week. That Ravens defense is swarming and coming off a bye. With no Andre Johnson, the Texans will stick to the ground, and probably not find a ton of offensive success.

Josh Freeman v. NO 9
Freeman quite simply is not putting up starting numbers this year. He hasn't passed for more than 300 yards or more than 1 TD in a single game this year. You know I'm obsessed with Fantasy QBs who can run, and Freeman's only averaging 21 rushing yards per game this year, which is not enough to pad his stats into start-worthy status. Don't drop Freeman, but don't start him until he shows you something, which could even come this week. You have to let him ride the bench until he breaks out.

Donald Brown / Delone Carter v. CIN 20
Joseph Addai will not play this weekend. Even if this were an easy matchup, I wouldn't trust Carter or Brown. In this tough matchup against a strong Bengals Run D, I'm definitely not getting cute with these two. Unlike Earnest Graham, they're not plug-and-plays. If one of the two runs away with the gig, then he could be start-worthy next week against the Saints. But for now, these two wreak of Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster level disappointments.

Jacoby Jones / Kevin Walter v. BAL 18
Sticking with the "Don't get cute with plug-and-plays" theme, you shouldn't be starting Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter, even in the absence of Andre Johnson. The Texans will put the game in Arian Foster's hands. And we've seen that even when Jones gets double digit targets (last week), he just doesn't have the hands of a reliable receiver.

Brandon Marshall v. NYJ 26
I'm "Forgetting Brandon Marshall" this week (did you see what I did there?). This is in spite of his promise to play like a monster and get ejected in the 2nd quarter (a call that is sure to be as historic as Babe Ruth's famous homerun call). I'm sitting Marshall for two reasons: Matt Moore and Darrell Revis. Enough said.

Percy Harvin v. CHI 20
Harvin was held out of practice today with a rib injury. I expect him to be active, but here are my concerns: (1) his health is at less than 100%, (2) he's not playing enough snaps, (3) Donovan McNabb is on the decline, and (4) it's a tough matchup. In one of my deep leagues, and with byes, I have to start Harvin, and I've got my fingers crossed for 5 or 6 points.

Jacoby Ford / Denarius Moore / Darrius Heyward-Bey v. CLE 30
There's a good chance that Joe Haden will sitout this game, and he's approaching shutdown corner status. So there's a good chance that one Raider WR has a nice game. I just don't know which one. If I had to rank them, I'd go DHB, Moore, Ford, but I wouldn't feel comfortable starting any of them yet.

Dallas Clark v. CIN 21
Clark should not be started, and should probably be dropped in 10 team leagues. He's just not getting it done. This is mostly thanks to the absence of Peyton Manning, but Clark even had some uncharacteristic drops last week. He'll have to stay in the line to block more often than not, so he should not be in your lineup, especially in this tough matchup.

Game Previews: Week 6

2011-10-13T00:42:00.000-07:00

By Cory

Week 5 was quite the topsy-turvy week in the world of fantasy football. Sadly coaches around the NFL really don’t seem to care who was drafted when in fantasy drafts and seem more preoccupied with winning. What’s up with that!? Even the coach who always seems to produce fantasy goodness at the expense of winning the game and sportsmanship, Bill Belichick, toned down his aerial attack last week to allow Benjarvus Green-Ellis to have his breakout game, meaning Ridley disappointed and Brady slowed down. I would love to say that week 6 will bring a return to normalcy, but sadly we can never know for sure. With that in mind, here are some trends across the league and some players with matchups to exploit and avoid going into week 6.

Panthers at Falcons

The Panthers offense is the big surprise of the season with Cam Newton coming in as a clear every week starter, and Steve Smith exploding back onto the main stage as an elite fantasy wide receiver. The mucky part of this team is the backfield. In what seemed like a surefire great matchup for Jonathan Stewart last week, DeAngelo Williams wound up stepping it up in a major way. While I still think both of these guys could be started, I would caution Williams owners that much of his yardage came on one carry and that both of these backs should return more to an even value this weekend. Look for Matt Ryan to bounce back this week, even without Julio Jones who will be sidelined until at least week 7. Harry Douglas will step in at receiver opposite Roddy White in this matchup and has the potential for a decent game. Douglas has always had some role in the Atlanta passing game and should see his targets double this weekend (possible option in deep leagues).

Colts at Bengals

Curtis Painter is a far cry from the next Peyton Manning, and we saw his inability to close out games last week against the lowly Chiefs. However, the Colts are a passing team and with a banged up Joseph Addai, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lean more heavily on the passing game. Pierre Garcon has exploded in a major way thanks to Painter’s production and now has over 400 yards and 4 scores on the young season. If he isn’t already, Garcon should be in your lineup. If Dallas Clark posts another dud performance this weekend, it’s time to cut bait. He is already waiver fodder in three of my leagues. I still like Jermaine Gresham a lot and as long as he continues to produce, he should be started. Gresham only had 21 yards last week, but he had 5 receptions and a score, look for the yards to increase and he seems to be a red-zone favorite in this surprisingly competent Bengals offense.

49ers at Lions

Alex Smith has been making smart decisions with the football and is coming off a great week against the Bucs, but he will have a much tougher time against the Detroit defense. Not that anyone is considering starting Smith (I hope), but this does not bode well for any 49ers receivers not named Vernon Davis. Davis has reinstated himself in this Niners offense and has been a productive option out of the tight-end position. Frank Gore has been on a tear lately, even though there was some talk of him surrendering starting duties, and he remains a safe bet. Jahvid Best showed flashes of brilliance against the Bears on MNF, but has been very inconsistent and will face a very staunch run defense against the 49ers. Best should still be started but another 160+ yard performance is probably not in the stars. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are kinda no-brainers at this point (bench these guys! JK JK JK), but what I am impressed with is the production out of Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is averaging over 5 catches and 50 yards per game and has been somewhat consistent in his role in this offense. Pettigrew has only one touchdown (which he earned against the Bears this last week), but as long as he is getting looks, the fantasy value is there.

Rams at Packers

There really is nothing left to say about the Rams anymore. They are our lowest power ranked team and no one has done much of anything to make us say otherwise. I never shared Brett’s love for Sam Bradford, so this isn’t all that difficult to call the entire Rams passing game a big fat No-No. The Packers on the other hand have had an astronomical passing game this season. Aaron Rodgers has been spreading the ball around like butter and has made defenses look foolish. The only problem is there is little consistency with the love sharing. Greg Jennings is a safe bet and Jermichael Finley is too productive out of the tight-end spot to be benched, but what do you do with Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson? Cobb has looked impressive but even in this offense he shouldn’t be considered. On the other hand, I do think that Jones and Nelson are both decent homerun hitting options. Don’t get me wrong, both of these guys could have dud performances, but if you’re in a jam, I wouldn’t blame you if you plugged either in your lineup (especially Nelson).

Bills at Giants

Fred Jackson – what can’t this guy do? I knew Jackson was going at a great value, but I never in my wildest dreams - and I have some pretty wild dreams – imagined he would be a top 5 guy. The injury sustained to Donald Jones means that David Nelson will see an increase in targets as he will step up as the number 2 opposite Stevie Johnson. While this will up Nelson’s targets, I am slightly curious to see how his removal from the slot will impact his production. Brandon Jacobs missed practice yesterday and his status is up in the air for this week. However, with a bye in week 7, the Giants may hold off on rushing Jacobs back and aim for a week 8 return, meaning Ahmad Bradshaw should see a healthy dose of carries against a Bills team that has struggled against the run (5.5 yards per carry to opposing runningbacks). Even with the turnover fiesta Eli Manning had last weekend, he still posted solid numbers through the air and I might have to eat crow about saying that he cannot support three wide receivers. I still like Mario Manningham more than Victor Cruz, but I think both could be in your starting lineup against a susceptible Bills secondary.

Jaguars at Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger silenced critics with an exclamation point last week and put together a monster day. If Big Ben can continue to produce like this, there should be enough yardage and fantasy points to go around to support a full staff of receivers. That being said, I think that the Hines Ward show from last week was a bit of an outlier. Ward will continue to hold a special place in the hearts of Steelers’ fans and this offense, but I wouldn’t expect any sort of repeat performance any time soon. Rashard Mendenhall is not on the Steelers injury report for week 6 and Isaac Redman did little last week to make a claim for a bigger role in the running game. Mendenhall is struggling this season but he still has to be started. As for Dwyer, we ain’t buyin’ it so quit tryin’ to sell it.

Eagles at Redskins

While the Eagles have fallen from grace harder than any team in the NFL this season, they’re fantasy production is still up there (if that provides any silver-lining to Eagles fans?). Michael Vick has over 300 yards rushing and even with the turnover issues last week, he managed to put together a solid fantasy game. The same can be said for DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy, all of whom remain safe starts. That rascally old Shanahan is at it again with the Redskins backfield. Ryan Torrain, Tim Hightower, and Roy Helu will likely all see action in this game against a horrendous Philly run defense, but they will eat into each other’s value. This three headed monster – and I use the term monster very loosely – will operate based on the hottest hand. Right now, Torrain was voted US Weekly’s “Hottest Hand of 2011” which means Torrain will get the start, but if he struggles Hightower will step in. Check in if you own any of these players, but don’t expect Shanahan to tell you anything you want to hear about what you can expect out of the backfield rotation.

Texans at Ravens

The Texans looked very sharp in the first half last week against the Raiders, but things fell apart in the second half. Matt Schaub got dinged up and missed practice yesterday but is expected to start week 6. That being said, the Ravens have been tough through the air and Schaub will most likely be playing without Andre Johnson again. Johnson’s return for week 6 is doubtful, so owners should look for an alternative again week 6. Johnson’s absence did nothing to help Jacoby Jones last week who only managed to haul in 1 of 11 targets for 9 yards. The biggest beneficiaries of Andre the Giant’s absence are the tight-ends Owen Daniels and Joel Dreesen. Daniels is an obvious every week starter, but Dreesen could be worth a flier pick if Johnson doesn’t play and you’re in a jam at tight-end. Anquan Boldin should hopefully rebound from a slow week 4, especially since Mario Williams will not be in the game to apply pressure on Joe Flacco. Ed Dickson has also emerged as a reliable fantasy tight-end and I know that I will be starting him this week.

Cowboys at Patriots

He’s baaaaaaack! Miles Austin will make his return to action this weekend against a horrifically porous New England secondary. Tony Romo also appears to be at full health so he should have a field day with Austin back, and Jason Witten and Dez Bryant both looking fully healthy. Felix Jones continues to have his struggles with production and durability, but the Patriots will have their hands full with the mismatch in the secondary, so even if Jones sees a decrease in carries, an increase in YPC should allow for some decent production. As for the Pats’ backfield – good grief. BJGE had a huge performance last week at the expense of Stevan Ridley. Who knows what to expect this week. I would imagine Ridley will see more action but I don’t think the lawfirm BJGE is at risk of losing his starting job after his monstrous outing last week. The return of Aaron Hernandez has spelled even more trouble for Rob Gronkowski who has slowed down dramatically from his red-hot start to the season. But crazy Bill Belichick may completely revamp this offense in the blink of an eye, making Wes Welker and Tom Brady the only consistently reliable starts.

Saints at Buccaneers

Drew Brees is on a completion tear. I know that isn’t a statistic that gets much attention in the NFL because the number of completions is always measured with the number of attempts, but in fantasy it’s a great statistic to see out of your quarterback. Jimmy Graham continues to make me look smart and makes me scared of Trevor from Jacksonville’s team in the Fan League. Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem on the other hand are eating into each other’s value like crazy. Colston is the best weapon of these three and his value should steadily increase at the cost of Meachem and Moore. However, if Brees can continue to average over 30 completions a game (think about what that stat means), then all three of these guys may remain decent options at least in the flex. For the Bucs, it is looking like LeGarrette Blount will be unable to go this week, and Josh Freeman has indicated that the Bucs plan on getting Earnest Graham the ball. Graham is past his prime, but he has looked good in the receiving game and is definitely worth a start this weekend.

Best of luck in week 6, and look I finally made it through a whole article without mentioning Reggie Bu – D’oh!

Fan League Update

2011-10-12T13:47:00.000-07:00

This week in the FFMVP Fan League, I handedly beat my partner in crime, Cory, thanks to his many byes. The win vaulted me to 2nd place after starting 0-2, and I currently have the most points in the league.

Don't look now, but Team Patrick is also on the up and up with 3 straight wins thanks to the Aaron Rodgers-Greg Jennings connection, in addition to great value picks in A.J. Green and Ryan Mathews. There's got to be a better TE out there for him than Zach Miller, but you can't argue with the team's 3rd highest overall point total.

The highest score in Week 5 was posted by Trevor K, who got 3 TDS from Adrian Peterson in the first quarter of action. And Trevor was either incredibly brilliant or just really lucky by starting Steve Breaston and his 2 TDs.

In a toilet bowl matchup, our very own Kevin beat out Jimi of San Jose 78-58. You might be thinking someone started players on byes, but the starting rosters look respectable enough; it was just a perfect storm of crappiness. Guys like Kevin Kolb, Ryan Grant, Jordy Nelson, and Stevan Ridley probably let down more owners than just Kevin and Jimi.

And the current league leader is Sammy of Pekin, Illinois, with Matt Forte's consistent excellence keeping him winning. This week, Sammy gets Miles Austin back so his team truly is a force to be reckoned with.

Wish me luck against Jimi in Week 6!

New Podcast

2011-10-11T01:21:00.000-07:00

10/11: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Cory review some highlights of Week 5 action, tell you about Jackie Battle and Tim Tebow, and explain why you shouldn't chase any Indy RBs.

Working the Waiver: Week 5

2011-10-10T17:18:00.000-07:00

Jackie Battle (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)
When Jamaal Charles landed on Injured Reserve, the question on everyone's mind was how would Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster pick up the slack. It took 3 weeks for the dark horse, Jackie Battle, to emerge as likely the Chiefs RB to own going forward. A report last week gave us a clue that Battle would be worked in more this week, and he was in fact slowly worked in during the first half of Sunday's game against the Colts. When his effectiveness became apparent, he took over the main back role, racking up 119 yards, and 2 catches for 21 yards. Thomas Jones and Bad-DMC just are not built to carry the load. Perhaps Battle is. As we mentioned last week, it sucks to pay for a player only to drop him the next week, but this week, I'm cutting Jones and McCluster to pickup Battle. Of course, he might not pan out either, but the potential is why he's my number one waiver wire add this week.

Tim Tebow (10%)
Coach Fox finally caved when Kyle Orton's weak first half performance gave him an out. Fox hasn't announced his Week 6 starter yet, but I expect it to be Tebow. Let the Tebow hype begin! He completed just 4 passes for 79 yards and a TD, but added 38 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. Like Cam Newton, he is their best goalline back. I think it's a bad move for the Broncos as an NFL team and probably not good for Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker, but the rushing potential is why he needs to be added in fantasy leagues. When given the gig in the last two games of last season, Tebow put up great fantasy numbers, adding a rushing TD in both games. Tebow could easily be Cam Newton-light, which really says a lot about how much I love Newton for the "light" version of him to be worth an add in all leagues.

Victor Cruz (60%)
Okay, shame on us for being super late the to Cruz party, but we thought Mario Manningham's return to his usual WR2 role would push Cruz back into obscurity. It didn't. To be clear, there's nothing wrong with Manningham. He played his second outside receiver role all game, and ran good routes. But Cruz managed to make big plays in the slot too, racking up 8 catches for 161 yards another TD. Call me stubborn but I still don't see this keeping up with two solid outside receivers getting targets (Nicks and Manningham). The 3 game streak cannot be ignored however, so if he is available in your league, go cruising for Cruz.

Greg Little (7%)
It's rare for a player to make his way into this esteemed column after not playing that week. But the Browns announced today that Greg Little is officially in the starting lineup as the X receiver. The Browns spent their bye week trying to solve their passing game, and landed on Little as the answer. In their west coast offense style, and with a surprisingly decent QB in Colt McCoy, Little all of the sudden has significant fantasy value. In the first four weeks, Little only caught 14 balls for 131 yards, but now he's a PPR sleeper. I'm a little excited to see what Little will do with his new role against Oakland next week. (Did you see what I did there? Did you?)

Darrius Heyward-Bey (8%)
Isn't it ironic that two players that Al Davis was criticized for drafting too early shined in a huge victory the day after Davis' passing? Many thought it was a mistake to draft Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree, and that Davis should not have drafted a kicker in the first round. Sebastian Janikowski and DHB avenged Davis on Sunday with 4 long field goals, and 7 catches for 99 yards and a score respectively. Keep in mind this is coming off a 115 yard effort from DHB, who looked like a beast on the field Sunday. He's worth an add to see if he can make it 3 good games in a row, but I'm not super excited about anyone in this muddled WR core. It looks like Denarius Moore and DHB will play the outside receivers and Jacoby Ford will remain entrenched in the slot, while Derek Hagan and Chaz Schilens rotate in. We were high on Moore and Ford in the preseason, but let's be honest, you can't feel comfortable starting any Raiders WR in standard leagues on a weekly basis yet. Right now, the three will likely trade off good games. Hopefully, there can be some clarity soon.

Curtis Painter (8%)
Let's paint by numbers! Painter had 277 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 0 interceptions on Sunday. This is coming off a similarly decent zero-Int game in Week 5. Painter is basically the new Peyton Manning. That was a joke, but Painter has some talented receivers to throw to, and has exhibited superb chemistry with Pierre Garcon who has four TDs in the past seven days. Neither Painter nor Collins was able to use Dallas Clark effectively, so it may finally be time to cut your 5th round pick unfortunately. Painter has been in Indy for a while, so he knows the system and the players. He has a very tough Week 6 matchup against the Bengals, but he could prove to be a serviceable QB2 after that.

Steve Breaston (16%)
With Dwayne Bowe getting defensive attention (and apparently requiring even more if he is to be stopped), Steve Breaston is suddenly stepping it up. He hauled in 4 catches for 50 yards and 2 TDs yesterday. Last week, he caught 4 balls for 91 yards. Breaston was a fashionable sleeper when we thought he'd be Kevin Kolb's #2 WR option. When he was traded to the Chiefs, he lost his sleeper shine. Now it's back baby! Matt Cassel has increased his fantasy output in every week since his Week 2 outing, which is admittedly easy given that he started with negative points that week. It's always hard to add a player who is about to be on his bye because you'll have to wait two weeks to see if Breaston can keep it up, but he may be worth the wait.

Earnest Graham (14%)
The extent of LeGarrette Blount's injury is unclear because they would have held him out even with a minor injury during the Niners trouncing. But Coach Morries intimated today that Blount very well may miss next week's game. On Sunday, Earnest Graham carried the ball 5 times for 30 yards, and is averaging a healthy 4.7 YPC on the season. What's more, he's got great hands with 23 catches and 143 receiving yards on the season. If Blount should miss this week, the 31 year old Graham would be a decent start against New Orleans. I question Graham's ability to carry the load for the long haul, but if Blount is out a few weeks and you just need a flex option in the next 2 or 3 bye weeks, Graham could be the guy for you.

No Thanks
I'm saying No Thanks to some muddled RB situations here. Delone Carter and Donald Brown are only worth adding in deep leagues. It looks like Joe Addai will miss some time, and Donald Brown and Delone Carter will probably split the load in his absence. Theoretically, each of them would half of Addai's fantasy points. I don't have a calculator handy but half of crap is just crappier crap. If Addai is only out 1 or 2 weeks, then you probably will never even start Brown or Carter. If Addai looks like he's missing more time, I wouldn't blame you if had to drop him in shallower leagues.

I similarly am not racing to grab Jonathan Dwyer even though he ran for 107 yards while Mendenhall and Redman nursed injuries. 76 of those yards came on one carry, leaving a 3.0 YPC for the remaining 10 carries. Plus, Mendenhall was actually active in this game as an emergency backup option, which strongly suggests that he will be back and starting next week.

Finally, don't bite on Jacob Hester. The Chargers are on a bye next week, and Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert could both be back by then.

Game Recaps: Week 5

2011-10-09T23:37:00.000-07:00

Damn - football is unpredictable. Offensive coordinators have no interest in spreading the wealth in order to maintain predictable averages for each skill player. So if BenJarvus Green-Ellis is getting it done, there will be no hesitation to just keep giving him the ball over and over again, even if it means Stevan Ridley and Rob Gronkowski get no love. This was one of my worst Hot or Not predictions in memory, and for that, I apologize. I thought Kevin Kolb was at least competent enough to take advantage of a nice matchup. He wasn't. You'd think in a game where the Niners put up 48 points, and 3 receiving TDs, Michael Crabtree - their number one receiver - would have more than 36 receiving yards. He didn't. And after 4 straight bad games, you'd think Ben Roethlisberger should be benched with messed up feet and a tough matchup. Ben and his 5 TDs would argue to the contrary. At least we told you Mark Sanchez, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Santonio Holmes, Greg Olsen, and Jermaine Gresham would be decent starts. And we correctly told you to bench Tolbert, Jacoby Jones, and all 3 Saints WRs. Anywho, here are some notable storylines and takeaways from Week 5 action:

Chiefs v. Colts

Matt Cassel may be back from the fantasy graveyard, after putting together two good games in a row. More importantly, Dwayne Bowe is on a tear with three straight games with TDs, and even though we were skeptical, he's an every-week starter. Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones just are not doing anything to capitalize on Jamaal Charles' absence. Instead, it was Jackie Battle (pictured above) who stepped up with 19 carries for 119 yards (and 2 catches for 21 yards). You're probably looking at the best KC RB to own going forward. Curtis Painter played well, with a QB rating of 115.8. As we've discussed, Painter is making a star out of Pierre Garcon. Meanwhile, Dallas Clark is averaging just 27 yards through 5 games. If you have other TE options, which you probably do, it's time to say "Peace Out" to Dallas Clark. It's that time of year again - Joseph Addai is hurt! In his absence, Delone Carter managed a score, but just 1.8 yards per carry. Donald Brown was much more effective and we're likely to see a value-killing combo of the two going forward.

Seahawks v. Giants

We are a little late to the Victor Cruz party but after three straight big games, it's time to make sure he's owned in your league. Mario Manningham was expected to replace his production this week, but Cruz still led the team in targets with 11. Manningham was a close second with 9, but only hauled in 5 catches for 56 yards. I still think Manningham is a decent buy-low, and the way Eli is playing, he could make Cruz, Manningham, and Nicks all viable options.

Saints v. Panthers

Jimmy Graham is a man among boys. The return of Marques Colston is muddling up the WR picture, but not the TE picture - Graham is the best bet for fantasy production out of all the Saints receivers. Of the WRs, Colston caught 5 out of 6 targets, Meachem caught 4 out of 5 targets, and Moore caught 3 out of 6 targets. Going forward, Colston is the best starter, but the 3 could eat into eachother's value, making every one of them no more than a decent flex option.

Raiders v. Texans

Don't worry about Darren McFadden's low totals. The Texans made it their number one priority to bottle him up, and he had two long runs called back by penalties. There's nothing wrong with DMC. After two solid games in a row, it's time to consider Darius Heyward-Bey as a waiver add, as he led the team in targets. Denarius Moore had zero catches for zero yards, but received 6 targets so don't drop him yet. Arian Foster is back to his elite 2010 form. In Andre Johnson's absence, Kevin Walter had a nice fantasy day thanks mostly to one nice play. Jacoby Jones caught one pass on twelve targets. As I've said, he just isn't a viable option even given the opportunity. Owen Daniels will continue to be the beneficiary, and he is on a tear.

Chargers v. Broncos

Vincent Jackson has been pretty inconsistent this year. But don't blame his poor day on his injury; he looked fine out there but was blanketed by Champ Bailey who apparently still has got it. Randy McMichael is not Antonio Gates-light, and there are almost certainly better replacement options on the waiver wire than McMike. Willis McGahee played incredibly well, averaging 7.8 yards-per-carry, which unfortunately is making Knowshon Moreno look like a big fat bust. Moreno looked swift on his TD catch, but he will need a McGahee injury to become a fantasy starter, which is entirely possible. The changing of the guard from Orton to Tebow makes Tebow an intriguing waiver add, with his potential on the ground. But it spells bad news for Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, and in my opinion, the Broncos.

Jets v. Patriots

Say what? The New England Patriots ran more than they passed?!? That's new, but it worked. As a Stevan Ridley-owner, I was hoping the Law Firm would get tired in the 4th quarter after repeated runs, but he kept going, racking up 27 carries for 136 yards. BJGE was on a ton of fantasy analysts' bust lists, and he really gave them the finger today. Don't drop Ridley yet; today just wasn't his day. Aaron Hernandez looked more than healthy in his return to action. And don't panic if you're a Rob Gronkowski-owner. He caught all 4 of his targets, and was apparently so sick that he wasn't sure if he'd play today. Of course, Belichick gave us no clue as to his status.

Packers v. Falcons

The Julio Jones injury would be good news for Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. But let's talk about the Packers backfield: James Starks is still the Green Bay RB to own, especially after Ryan Grant lost a fumble early in the game. Starks had 12 carries for 40 yards compared to 7 carries for just 18 yards for Grant. Here's the problem: remember last year when Ryan Grant landed on I.R. and Brandon Jackson took over the feature back role for the Pack? He sucked it up big time. Unfortunately, being the main RB on this pass-first team just doesn't mean much. In the fourth quarter, when Green Bay should have been killing the clock on the ground (like New England did for example), Aaron Rodgers just kept throwing! He's simply too effective. Ryan Grant should ride benches going forward, and Starks is a shaky flex start, (though he will be a must start in Week 6 against the lowly Rams.)

Hot or Not: Week 5

2011-10-07T13:11:00.000-07:00

HOT

Mark Sanchez v. NE 3
It's hard to start someone who looked so dirty in Week 4, someone who's incompetence literally made you better off starting Kurt Warner at QB than Sanchez. But the Ravens D really is that good. And the Patriots secondary really is that bad. Coach Ryan said the Jets will "ground and pound" this week, but what a stupid week to start that new strategy. The Pats are giving up yards on the ground, but even more through the air. What has Shonn Greene showed you this season to make you think he's the answer to the Jets struggles? I'm sure Greene will get a ton of carries in the first quarter to prove that Ryan is a man of his word, and to keep Tom Brady off the field. But that won't last; they'll have to throw to keep up - maybe some nice playaction passes after Greene has bumbled his way to a 3rd and 6. I wouldn't be surprised to see my Least Valuable Player, Plaxico Burress, find the endzone in an absolute mismatch against the small Pats corners.

Kevin Kolb v. MIN 14
Kolb is coming off a very disappointing Week 4 effort. His fantasy production has actually declined in every week this season. He's been making effective use of Larry Fitzgerald, but that's about all. This week, I expect him to bounce back against a weak Vikings secondary that will be missing their top CB Antoine Winfield. If you're missing Tony Romo this week, Kolb will prove to be the perfect bye week replacement.

Joseph Addai v. KC 4
After Addai's impressive day against the Steelers in Week 3, there was hope that Addai could become a fantasy starter once again. Then he delivered a vintage dud against the Bucs last week. Addai seems especially matchup sensitive, and this is a good one. I expect the Colts to play hungry for their first win, and I think they get it with Addai on the ground. Painter may be a slight upgrade over Kerry Collins, but the Colts don't want to entrust the whole game in Painter's arm, so look for plenty of carries for Addai.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley v. NYJ 6
We saw the Pats move to a more balanced attack last week, with more action for their RBs. I expect that to continue against a Jets D that has been much easier to run on than pass on so far. With Danny Woodhead hobbled, The Law Firm and The Talented Mr. Ridley could repeat last week's performances: double digit carries for both with Green-Ellis getting the edge, and both could score. Look for Green-Ellis to pound it up the middle and Ridley to catch some screen passes.

Isaac Redman v. TEN 18
This is not an easy matchup. But the simple fact is that Redman is all they have this weekend. Mewelde Moore is out and Mendenhall is likely out too. (He's technically a gametime decision, but fortunately he plays in an early game so be sure to check the inactives.) With Big Ben banged up, the Steelers will be even more focused on getting their run game going. In these bye weeks, Redman is a must-start.

Mario Manningham v. SEA 20
After a very slow start to the season and the emergence of Victor Cruz, I've seen Manningham dropped in 2 leagues. He needs to be owned and he should be started this week. Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride said yesterday that Manningham has not lost his starting WR2 job. Cruz doesn't scare me much. In these bye weeks, don't be afraid to start the talented Manningham.

Santonio Holmes v. NE 1
I put him here last week and he let me down. To be fair, my argument was that because he complained, the Jets would force him the ball, and he did get 12 targets. If he gets 12 targets against the Pats weak secondary, Holmes will finally have a nice fantasy day.

Sidney Rice v. NYG 15
Since his return to action, Rice has put together two very solid games. He is so talented that he can succeed even with a guy named Tarvaris throwing him the ball.

Michael Crabtree v. TB 8
He was in our Waiver Wire column this week because of two decent games in a row. (He should have had a TD in Week 3, but-for his toe stepping out of bounds.) Tampa Bay has been easier to pass on than run on, and Crabtree should lead the team in targets. It's hard to trust anyone catching balls from Alex Smith, but Crabby could get you 80 yards or so.

Greg Olsen v. NO 4
Unfortunately, it looks like Jeremy Shockey will play in Week 5, but he won't take too many targets away from Olsen. Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, and Steve Smith are becoming a holy trinity of fantasy starters. Plus, this is a nice matchup for the TE.

Jermaine Gresham v. JAC 3
Here's yet another guy who is unowned in the majority of leagues, who we told you to pickup on Tuesday, and now I'm telling you to immediately plug him in. Andy Dalton leans on A.J. Green and Gresham as his favorite targets, so roll with Gresh if you got him!

NOT

Ben Roethlisberger v. TEN 28
Roethlisberger will gut it out against the Titans on Sunday, but here's the issue: 1) He has struggled all season, 2) His mobility will be severely limited by the injury, and 3) The matchup is very tough. I would start Kolb or Sanchez above Big Ben this week.

Mike Tolbert v. DEN 25
This may be obvious to you, but Tolbert is increasingly finding himself on the wrong side of this timeshare. The Chargers announced this week that they plan to get Ryan Mathews 25 carries, which doesn't leave much room for our favorite bruiser, Mikey Tolbs. Bench him this week, and only start him in easy matchups or when he starts getting more work.

Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter v. OAK 10
In Andre Johnson's absence, many fantasy owners are thinking they'll be clever by plugging in his replacement. If you're starting either guy, it's Jones, but I don't like either. If Jones has a nice fantasy day, it will be on one nice TD run, but I certainly cannot see 8 catches for 110 yards. The Texans will lean heavily on Foster, and Owen Daniels could lead the team in targets.

Deion Branch v. NYJ 29
Will we see the impressive Branch of the first two weeks, or the dud form the second two weeks? With Revis likely covering him, he'll be a dud again. There's a chance Revis moves to the slot for once to cover the Pats best WR, Wes Welker. But either way, I expect Brady to dink and dunk his way down the field, so he won't go deep to Branch, (and certainly not to Ochostinko).

Marques Colston / Robert Meachem / Lance Moore v. CAR 23
The matchup doesn't scare me at all. The uncertainty does. It's very possible that all 3 guys have decent fantasy days. It's also possible that all 3 have single digit fantasy points (70 yards for Colston, 10 yards and a TD for Meachem, etc). After Colston's one catch performance, it's not clear that he's fully recovered yet. I believe his return hurts Meachem more than Moore, so if I have to start one WR in Week 5, it's Lance Moore. Of course, if I had to own one WR going forward, it's Marques Colston.

Kellen Winslow v. SF 16
Winslow is still a big part of the offense, getting plenty of looks and short catches. But until he can get you more than 5 fantasy points, you have to leave him on your bench.

New Podcast 10/7!

2011-10-07T13:03:00.000-07:00

10/7: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Cory tell you who's hot and who's not this week. Brett can't pronounce "Jaguar" and Cory critiques The League.

Game Previews: Week 5

2011-10-05T13:58:00.000-07:00

By Cory

If you drafted anything like I did, you are probably looking at your roster right now about to have a panic attack, no Ravens or Cowboys and wait – no this can’t be right, no Reggie Bush!?!? Hopefully you were able to stack up on depth at the runningback and wide receiver skill positions, but again, if you drafted like I did you may still be panicking. MJD and Joseph Addai are both still healthy which means Deji Karim and Delone Carter are still yet to pay off and are too unreliable to be started. But while bye weeks may be a time for many to panic, those of us who eat, breathe and sleep fantasy football know that this is our chance to win our leagues. All those fools who auto-drafted or who wait till Sunday morning to set their roster will be met with a rude awakening when they see that Dez Bryant, Tony Romo and Ray Rice won’t be playing and that you already beat them to the punch by grabbing Jacoby Jones and Stevan Ridley. So if your team is plagued by the “Bye Blues,” here are some pointers and tips that should hopefully carry you through to victory. And if your team managed to avoid the bye week bite this week, just remember the wise words of Dwight K. Schrute, "While today it is me, one day we shall all fall."

Eagles at Bills

While this game figures to be a fantasy goldmine, there is little to report that most people don’t already know. Michael Vick is coming off a great performance in a losing effort and his injured hand didn’t seem to slow him down at all. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are both healthy and starting, but the number three position is opening up slightly. Since returning, Steve Smith has carved out a progressively bigger role in the Philly passing game with 5 targets last weekend. Jason Avant is still the slot receiver which gives him the edge over Smith, but if you’re really struggling with bye weeks, Smith and Avant could both be considered in deep leagues in what figures to be a shootout game. Fred Jackson has proven me right every week and there is no reason why anyone should consider benching him against a team that surrendered 100 yard performances to an injured and slumping Frank Gore and the rookie Kendall Hunter last weekend.

Saints at Panthers

As we predicted, Jimmy Graham has cemented himself as an elite fantasy tightend due in great part to the physical mismatch he provides for most defenses. Marques Colston is slowly being worked back into action but after a week of practice and recovery, he should be a go. The return of Colston spells some bad news for Robert Meachem and Lance Moore, who should see their targets decrease this weekend. As I said last week and in the podcast, I prefer Lance Moore to Meachem because of the chemistry he has displayed with Drew Brees, but both Meachem and Moore could prove serviceable while Colston gets re-worked into this offense. Jonathan Stewart has gained over 80 yards in his past three games with Cam Newton really opening up the Carolina offense. The Saints are not an easy matchup but neither were the Bears or the Jaguars and J-Stew got it done against them, so if ever there were a time to start Stewart and DeAngello Williams, this is the week. And I would give Stewart the edge because of his role in the receiving game as the Panthers will probably have to throw to keep up with the Saints.

Raiders at Texans

Denarius Moore is making us look smart so far with another quality fantasy outing, but without the touchdown in garbage time, his game would have been very disappointing. Against a tough Houston secondary and with Jacoby Ford figuring to play more of a role in the receiving game, both of these guys should really only be started in deep leagues or on teams ravaged by bye weeks. Michael Bush practiced yesterday, but while he does more than your classic "handcuff," I'm still not comfortable starting him in standard leagues. Andre Johnson underwent "surgery" this week and will likely be out until week 7 meaning that he probably should not be in your lineup this week. Kevin Walter will take over the number one receiver job but he was held without a catch on one target last week and is a very risky play. Jacoby Jones is the option I like in this matchup. The only thing worse than Stanford Routt is the rest of the Oakland secondary, meaning that Jones should have little difficulty getting open. Jones has struggled with drops in the past, but if Pierre Garcon’s Monday night performance is any indication, a speedy and physical receiver doesn’t need many catches to put together a great fantasy day.

Chiefs at Colts

Things in the Chiefs backfield are starting to shape out, but nothing is looking too attractive. The “Poor Man’s DMC,” Dexter McCluster, has been the most valuable but that’s like saying Taylor Hanson is the most successful member of Hanson. Thomas Jones has received more carries but has been ineffective with those carries. McCluster has played a role in the passing game but is yet to display his explosiveness, averaging less than 4 yards per catch. Whatever goal line upside Thomas Jones brought to the table has disappeared with Jackie Battle stepping in as the more effective short yardage back, but none of these guys are too desirable. If I had to rank them, I would go 1) Dexter McCluster, 2) Thomas Jones, 3) An Empty Roster Spot and 4) Jackie Battle. It’s tough to say much about the relationship between Curtis Painter and Pierre Garcon. Garcon had several targets and several drops, only managing to haul in two catches. But those two catches went for 87 yards and 59 yards and two scores. While Painter is in, we like Garcon.

Bengals at Jaguars

It looks like Cedric Benson has managed to avoid suspension for now, which means he should be able to play this week. While this is good news for Benson owners, it is bad news for those of you quick enough to grab Bernard Scott. Scott is very athletic and talented, but will not see nearly enough carries to get into a groove and get some solid production until Ced-Ben serves his suspension. Jermaine Gresham stepped up in a big way last week and made some very athletic grabs to bail out Andy Dalton. Gresham is far from an elite tightend in this system, but he could be serviceable during bye weeks and to owners of Antonio Gates.

Cardinals at Vikings

Beanie Wells had his breakout performance last week and reminded all his owners why they drafted him. While the Vikings are a slightly tougher matchup, he is still a must-start. While Adrian Peterson has managed to produce even when defenses game plan just to take him out of the game, the Vikings’ passing game looks like a JV team. Percy Harvin is the only other startable receiver in Minnesota. Even though McNabb has been unable to deliver the ball effectively and consistently through the air, Harvin has taken on a much larger role in the running game and has the ability to return kicks for scores.

Seahawks at Giants

You know I’m down on the Seahawks, but if Sidney Rice can continue to perform, he should at least be a serviceable flex option. Tarvaris Jackson has shown some confidence in the physical and speedy Rice, so even if Jackson is an errant quarterback, Rice should hopefully be able to haul in enough passes to post a decent fantasy day. The G-Men backfield has been a relatively even split which means there should be enough love to go around for both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Hakeem Nicks returned last week in a major way and has another solid matchup against the Seahawks this weekend. Mario Manningham had a very disappointing game last weekend getting only one catch and being benched after some bad route running, but it is unlikely that he will lose his starting job to Victor Cruz. While there is enough love in the Giants’ offense to produce two quality runningbacks, Eli Manning cannot support three serviceable wide receivers so Cruz should be avoided this week.

Titans at Steelers

Chris Johnson looks like he may have woken up last weekend with over 100 yards, but I wouldn’t say he is completely out of the woodwork yet. This is a tough matchup against the Steelers, but we still think that Johnson should be started every week. Nate Washington only had 2 catches on four targets last week and he will be seeing a whole lot of Ike Taylor this weekend, while Jared Cook will be seeing an awful lot of Troy Polamalu, making neither particularly attractive starts this weekend. Rashard Mendenhall was held out of practice yesterday with a hamstring injury, but the Steelers are optimistic that he will be able to play Sunday. Even if Mendenhall is a go, he has been struggling lately and will likely start losing carries to Isaac Redman. Redman has been running effectively but is not worth a start unless the injury to Mendenhall proves to be more serious. Antonio Brown continues to lead the receivers in targets because the Pittsburgh line has been unable to give Big Ben enough time to find an open Mike Wallace. Wallace remains an every week starter but Brown is also starting to creep towards that territory.

Buccaneers at 49ers

LeGarrette Blount put together a great game against a pretty porous Colts’ run defense, but he will face off against a much tougher 49ers front 7. Blount is a physical up the gut runner but that style of run will throw him right into the arms of Patrick Willis. Josh Freeman looked excellent against the Colts on MNF both through the air and on the ground. The San Francisco secondary has been pretty vulnerable this season which means this might be another solid matchup for Freeman and a solid opportunity to try plugging in Preston Parker if you’re desperate for a flex option. Frank Gore emerged from last week’s game without an aggravated injury, but he will continue to lose a few carries to Kendall Hunter. Gore does not look like his self this season and is a very risky play moving forward (but a risky RB1 is still a decent RB2 option). Michael Crabtree put together a decent outing against Philly, but he is very inconsistent and is going to be far too dependent on the Stormin’ Mormon Alex Smith (and if anyone forgot or didn’t know, Alex Smith sucks – just to clarify).

Packers at Falcons

Ryan Grant figures to be back this weekend against the Falcons, but even when healthy, Grant has been in a committee with James Starks all season. The Packers ride the hot hand and it looks like Starks is the hot hand, but both of these guys should see enough touches to at least make decent flex options. Donald Driver missed practice after a knee injury suffered last weekend and will likely see limited snaps this weekend. While Driver should not be on your starting roster this weekend, his absence or limited role spells increased production for Jordy Nelson and James Jones. Jermichael Finley had a slow game last weekend, but he was buttressed by double coverage all game which is what allowed the rest of the Packers’ receiving corps to explode. The Packers have said that they will make a point to get Finley more involved this weekend. Julio Jones has posted back to back 100 yard performances and has stepped up to play a big role opposite Roddy White. The Packers’ secondary has looked very vulnerable without Nick Collins which means both White and Jones should be solid options this week.

Bears at Lions

Matt Forte is the center piece of the Bears offense and there is nothing Jay Cutler can do about it. If anything, Cutler has helped solidify the increased role of Forte with his poor quarterback play. Johnny Knox is the number one receiver in this offense, but I don’t love the probability that Cutler can deliver enough well-thrown balls to Knox. The only reason I like Knox in this matchup is because the Lions know the way the Bears play so they will be able to key in on Forte and force the Bears to go outside the box and try and use their receiving corps more often. This is a tough matchup for Jahvid Best but you can’t bench Best because of his potential to have an explosive performance. Calvin Johnson is alright I guess, maybe you can play him if you’re really in a tight squeeze?

Best of luck this weekend!

New Podcast!

2011-10-04T02:14:00.000-07:00

10/4: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Cory recap the Redskins RB debacle and tell you which players are worthy of your mighty roster.

Working The Waiver: Week 4

2011-10-03T19:00:00.000-07:00

Adding a waiver wire wonder or free agent always comes with a price. On a basic level, you have to make difficult decisions as to who gets cut from your team. And in FAAB leagues, waiver adds have a literal price. Perhaps you paid $10 out of your $100 budget after Week 1 to add Devery Henderson. Then when Marques Colston appeared be recovering weeks ahead of schedule, you paid another $10 to drop Henderson for Torrey Smith. And now I'm asking you to spend another $10 to drop Smith for Antonio Brown?!? Yes. Yes I am. That is the nature of waiver wire adds: they're speculative lottery-tickets. If you dropped some cheddar on Henderson, too bad; cut bait and grab the next high upside guy. If you dropped a few bucks on Cam Newton after Week 1, Congrats! You've got an every week starting QB for the rest of the season! My point is two-fold: (1) You have to be active on the waiver wire. And (2) you cannot be afraid to release players, even if you just paid to add them. So, before I tell you everyone you should consider adding, it only makes sense to tell you who you should consider dropping.

Drops: These guys all have potential, so I'm not saying you should drop them. I am telling you that you could drop any of these guys to make room for new prospects: Austin Collie, Sam Bradford, Emmanuel Sanders, Brent Celek, Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams, Devery Henderson, Scott Chandler, and Chester Taylor. I wouldn't blame you for letting go of Danny Amendola or any Raiders or Rams receiver if you really need the space. You know I still like Jacoby Ford's potential, but in 10 team leagues, there's a very good chance that if you cut him to make room for Stevan Ridley, Ford will not be picked up right away so you can swoop him back up later. The same probably goes for Torrey Smith who followed up an incredible 3 TD performance with 1 catch for 1 yard. And now he's on a bye, and then Lee Evans should be back. Smith did have 6 targets though, so I'm certainly holding on to him in deeper leagues. On to the fun part, this week's adds:

Stevan Ridley (Owned in 15% of Yahoo leagues)
Hopefully you added him for $2 when we told you to last week, because now you might have to pay $20 for him. Ridley rushed for 97 yards and a score. We were far too dismissive of his preseason hype, because hey, it was just the preseason. But he looked electric on Sunday. Danny Woodhead left the game early with an ankle injury, providing just the opportunity Ridley needed. BenJarvus Green-Ellis looked good too, so I certainly don't expect Ridley to become the main guy. But The Talented Mr. Ridley has earned himself a role in this mix. On this offense and with his talent, Ridley may only need 10 or 12 touches to make him a viable flex option.

Ryan Torain (21%)
They always say it and I should have listened: Mike Shanahan is the number one enemy of fantasy footballers. He has screwed us Hightower-owners. It turns out that Hightower was dinged up a little in practice throughout last week. He started the game but sustained a shoulder injury, which made the decision to employ Ryan Torain easy for Shanahan. The injury was not debilitating because Hightower returned for a few carries in the second half. When you add Roy Helu as a change of pace back into the mix, it's just a big freakin' headache. The Skins have a bye in Week 5, which is good for Hightower who can heal without letting Torain run away with the job, but if I have to start one Skins back in Week 6, it has to be Torain. He looked powerful with 135 yards and a TD. Still, in part due to Torain's propensity to get injured, I would not trade Hightower for Torain, meaning I still think he has more longterm value.

Antonio Brown (27%)
Like Ridley, we hope you picked up Brown last week, but he's still probably available and cheap because he's yet to score or breakout. Better yet, we hope you drafted him when we wrote about him back in August, where we picked him over the more fashionable sleeper, Emmanuel Sanders. Brown had just 5 catches for 67 yards (and 8 rushing yards), but he made some incredibly athletic catches and was targeted 10 times. At the quarter mark of the season, Brown has more targets than any other Steeler, including Mike Wallace. On Sunday, Brown's 10 targets crushed Hines Ward's 4 and Emmanuel Sanders' 2. If Big Ben misses time, Brown's production probably won't catch up to his potential yet, but he's well worth the add.

Isaac Redman (7%)
Rashard Mendenhall left Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, and Redman ran for 40 yards, plus a 12 yard catch. While Mendenhall has been disappointing all season, Redman holds a 4.9 YPC, so the Steelers may not be in a huge hurry to rush Mendenhall back in there. It turns out Mendenhall's injury is likely not too serious, which is why I'm not going to break the bank for Redman. Remember when Steven Jackson was going to miss time, leaving the backfield all alone for Cadillac Williams? You probably didn't even start him in the one week where he was a featureback against the Giants, and if you did, he let you down anyway. Redman is a little more talented, but the situation could be similarly underwhelming.

Jared Cook (29%)
Cook was another one of our Deeeep Sleepers in August. We constantly encouraged readers to wait on TEs and grab Greg Olsen or Jared Cook at the end. That's finally looking like a good call! Cook had 93 yards and a score, helping to fill the void in production that Kenny Britt's absence created. Because Cook did this on only 2 catches, you may conclude it was a fluke, but his 6 targets led all Titans. If you lost Gates for example, Cook could be just the stopgap you're looking for.

Matt Hasselbeck (40%)
Admittedly, I'm a little late on the Hasselbeck train, but judging by the fact that he's still available in 60% of leagues, it's probably not too late for you. I just had a hard time believing Hasselbeck could produce after losing his best receiver, Kenny Britt (and after 3 seasons of crappiness). Old Matt somehow got it done again with 3 TDs. Through 4 weeks, he has posted consistently solid fantasy production with 19, 21, 21, and 21 points. I'm not super excited about starting him against Pittsburgh next week, but with the bye weeks upon us, I might have to.

Michael Crabtree (40%)
I watched the Niners-Eagles game in its entirety, but I still didn't believe the 49ers won this game when I looked at the box score again this morning. Did Alex Smith look surprisingly competent?!? Michael Crabtree's 5 catches for 68 yards did not blow anyone's mind, but his 9 targets led the Niners. He would have had an impressive TD catch last week, but he just barely stepped out of bounds. With Braylon Edwards still sidelined, I think the fantasy death of Michael Crabtree has been overstated. I'll be swooping him up to see if the Stormin' Mormon, Alex Smith, can actually support two viable receivers in Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

Jermaine Gresham (27%)
Gresham hauled in 4 catches for 70 yards and a TD, which looks good on paper, but looked even better if you saw Gresham in action. The young QB, Andy Dalton, should continue to lean on Gresham. If you're struggling for a TE, I'd put Gresham just behind Cook.

Not Buying It: Laurent Robinson (2%)
Robinson will be a popular add after 7 catches for a whopping 116 yards. But the Cowboys have a bye in Week 5 and then Miles Austin should return at 100%. With Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten commanding targets, there's just no room for this guy.

Game Recaps: Week 4

2011-10-02T22:44:00.000-07:00

Jets v. Ravens

There were no surprises in the ground game for both teams: Ray Rice is a stud when you add in those valuable receiving yards, and Shonn Greene kinda sucks. The surprise here was the awful play of Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco following excellent Week 3 performances. They had QB ratings of 30.5 and 37.4 respectively. You could chalk it up to two tough defenses or an "off day," but true elite QBs do not have days that are this bad. Flacco did not complete a single pass throughout the entire 2nd and 3rd quarters. The Torrey Smith hype train came to a screeching halt, as he had only one catch for one yard. It will be tough to hold onto him because he has a Week 5 bye and then Lee Evans is sure to return, but Smith's 6 targets were second only to Ed Dickson's surprising total of 12. Flacco's poor play is also dragging down Anquan Boldin, who had one catch for 28 yards. If Flacco keeps up his trend of good, bad, good, bad, then you should start him next week, but he has a bye. I still think Flacco is worth starting in decent matchups, and fortunately, he has a lot of those coming up on the schedule.

Panthers v. Bears

Cam Newton is legit! Too legit to quit! He threw for 374 yards and a TD, and added 35 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. The threat of his legs is opening up holes for DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart who averaged 8.2 and 6.5 yards per carry today respectively. More importantly, it's clear which two receivers will be the beneficiaries of Newton's success: Steve Smith and Greg Olsen, who will be must-starts going forward. Jay Cutler sucked it up, but inconsistency is to be expected from Cutler. He only attempted 17 passes because the Bears were having so much success on the ground with Matt Forte. Forte carried the ball 25 times for 205 yards. Johnny Knox didn't light up the scoreboard, but he led the team's receivers in catches, yards, and targets. Knox is clearly the Bear's WR to own.

Titans v. Browns

Chris Johnson finally eclipsed the century mark! I don't even own him in a single league but I just like things to be somewhat predictable. So I'm happy when CJ looks halfway decent, and when Scott Chandler comes back to Earth because rando TEs shouldn't be lighting up the league. Johnson's 112 yards and no score are nowhere near the huge games he's known for putting up, but you're still starting him every week. And I am buying Jared Cook. His 93 yards and TD on just 2 catches may look flukey, but he was the most targeted Titan, so I think he can help fill some of Kenny Britt's void going forward.

Redskins v. Rams

Mike Shanahan has done it again! The RB rotation completely changed with no rhyme or reason, and with no warning. Hightower started and carried the ball 8 times for 24 yards, but Ryan Torain came out of nowhere with 19 carries for 135 yards and the score. Shanahan revealed afterward that he planned on getting Torain more work because Hightower didn't look good in practice this week. I honestly don't know what to make of this. I hate to say it, but it looks like if I had to start one Redskin back in the next game, it would be Torain. He will very likely be the top waiver wire add this week. On the Rams side, I'm tired of making apologies for Sam Bradford. The news does not look good for Danny Amendola, so Bradford may not get his best receiver back for a while. In a decent matchup, Bradford completed less than half his passes and averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt. His lone TD came in garbage time. In 10 or 12 team leagues, you can drop Bradford. In slightly deeper leagues, I'd hold onto him and see if he can live up to his potential.

Saints v. Jaguars

For the 4th week in a row, Darren Sproles was the most productive Saints RB, with 7 carries for 75 yards and 5 catches for 56 yards. Ingram is going to rely on falling into the endzone for fantasy production, making him a risky flex start. He had 17 carries for just 55 yards. Marques Colston was eased back in with just 3 targets, leading to just one catch for 8 yards. Meanwhile Jimmy Graham erupted for 10 catches and a score on 14 targets. He just put himself up there with Gronkowski, Finley, and Witten as the 4 elite TEs of 2011. Robert Meachem and Lance Moore cancelled each other out with 6 targets each and about 50 yards, making them each interesting flex options, but far from must-starts. Also Devery Henderson went catchless on one target, and can safely be dropped in all but the deepest of leagues.

Patriots v. Raiders

Stevan Ridley is the story here - carrying the ball 10 times for 97 yards and a TD. The Law Firm (Green-Ellis) had a solid game too, with 16 carries for 75 yards and a score. Woodhead had 2 touches and left the game with an ankle injury. Ridley is clearly going to be a big part of this mix and needs to be owned in all leagues. Rob Gronkowski settled down with one catch for 15 yards, but as they say, "Pobody's Nerfect!" Don't stress; Gronkowski was second only to Welker in targets with 5. The Raiders leading receiver was Darrius Heyward-Bey with 115 yards. We like Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford's talent the most, but they are far from must-starts. In Ford's return to action, he had no catches on 2 targets and an impressive 30 yard run that reminded me why he's worth owning. Moore had 3 catches and a garbage time TD, meaning he's also at least rosterable. McFadden didn't find the endzone, but when 123 yards is disappointing, you know you're spoiled with the top fantasy RB.

Hot or Not: Week 4

2011-09-30T18:27:00.000-07:00

Three games is a small sample size, but it's enough to start seeing some trends. For example, I'm buying Detroit's defense, which is currently giving up the 30th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. With Romo's injury concerns, he should be on your bench if you have other decent options. On the other hand, the Super Bowl Champion Packers are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but that doesn't mean you should rush to get Kyle Orton in your lineup. This is a fluke. The Pack has had points put up on them by Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Jay Cutler - that doesn't mean everybody can do it. So for the first time this year in Hot or Not, I'm going to put the opponent's rank in fantasy points given up, but we can't read too much into it yet. Since it's still early, there's still a lot of uncertainty, so I want to get to a bunch of guys, meaning it's another quantity over quality edition of Hot or Not:

HOT

Cam Newton v. CHI 11 (11th most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB)
Last week was the fluke, not Weeks 1 and 2. There was a frickin' monsoon and he still managed 16 fantasy points. You cannot underestimate the boost that a few nice runs provide for your fantasy day. It's too early to say the rookie is an every week must start, but it's fair to say he's a "should start" in anything but the toughest of matchups.

Eli Manning v. ARZ 7
After a slow start to the season, Eli erupted against the Eagles last week, proving that he can find the endzone even without a fully healthy receiving corp. Plus, and I won't say this often, Eli did not turn the ball over once in this game. With Mario Manningham back, and against the Cardinals cupcake defense, Eli is a must-start.

Jason Campbell v. NE 2
This is a sneaky play and not for the faint of heart. Campbell has been more of a game-manager so far this season, just handing the ball off to McFadden and letting him do his thing. I have no doubt that DMC will have another great game, but at the same time, DMC cannot rush all 5 TDs that it will take to stay competitive with the Patriots. Campbell will have to chuck the ball to keep up with Brady, and I have faith in him, and his talented young receivers - Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. If you're in a pickle at QB, plug and play Campbell and don't be surprised when he gets you 2 or 3 TDs on Sunday.

Rex Grossman v. STL 5
He made some mistakes against Dallas on MNF, but the Rams secondary is just so leaky. They let a rookie, Torrey Smith, humiliate them. I'm all-in on the Skins this week.

Cedric Benson v. BUF 7
Hallelujah! He won't be suspended just yet, meaning you have to play him against this soft run defense. Count on 20+ carries for our jailbird friend.

James Starks v. DEN 21
What the heck happened last week? Grant all of the sudden turned back the clock to 2008. The backfield situation would be a murky mess but-for Ryan Grant's injury situation. Grant is inactive, leaving James Starks with a golden opportunity to take back the reigns against the Broncos.

McCluster v. MIN 5
Another sneaky play for those in deep leagues. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs gave Thomas Jones the first carry because he's the vet and nominal starter, but immediately worked in Bad-DMC because he gives them their only chance of winning. The bright-side of this matchup of the 0-3 teams is that someone has to win this game! Don't expect a huge game for McCluster, but 15 touches for 75 yards is within reach.

LeGarrette Blount v. IND 10
Yeah, Indy shut down Rashard Mendenhall and I can't really explain that. But it was a huge relief to see the Bucs pound Blount right up the middle 24 times on Sunday. The Bucs will try to beat the Colts on the ground, and I cannot wait to see what Blount can do if he gets another 24 carries on Monday Night Football.

Tim Hightower v. STL 4
Hightower is probably an every-week starting RB2, but I just wanted to emphasize how bad the Rams have looked. I'm licking my chops as a Hightower-owner.

Steve Smith (CAR) v. CHI 21
Like Newton, I'm mostly buying the first 2 weeks and throwing out the Week 3 dud. The Bears have given up a lot of long passes this season so expect plenty of bombs to Smith. He only needs to catch one to make a nice fantasy day, but has the upside potential of catching several.

Percy Harvin v. KC 12
Percy was seen throwing up in a garbage can on the sidelines on Sunday after a big hit. If you're disturbed as his fantasy-owner, imagine how Oscar the Grouch felt when he looked up to see a Viking vom'ing on him! But Harvin says he's totally fine, and it was great to see the Vikes increase his snap count from about 50% to 75%. I've said it once, I'll say it 1,000 times: Minnesota will be creative in forcing the ball into their best receiver's hands.

Santonio Holmes v. BAL 7
Holmes disappointed in Week 3 with just one catch. After complaining about his low target count though, I expect the Jets to feed him the ball. The squeaky wheel gets the grease and whatnot. The Jets have a better chance of beating the Ravens through the air than on the ground. I foresee a bounce-back game from Holmes.

Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore v. NE 1
See the Jason Campbell analysis above. And yes, I think there will be enough passing yards for this week at least to support both WRs.

Scott Chandler v. CIN 7
Four TDs in three weeks? That's an impossible rate to keep up, but he's worth starting in nice matchups because of that potential.

Greg Olsen v. CHI 3
If not for stupid Jeremy Shockey usurping targets, Olsen could really step up to the next level. After 7 catches for 57 yards, a TD, and the icing on the cake: a 2-Point-Conversion, it's safe to insert Olsen into your lineup. I'm starting him over Fred Davis this week, because to be honest, I'm just so unsure of what to make of the Davis/Cooley situation. Besides Steve Smith, Olsen should be the second leading receiver again because after those two, the Panthers got nothin.

NOT

Josh Freeman v. IND 25

Freeman is off to an utterly disappointing start, and I expect it to continue at least for this week. As mentioned with Blount, I see the Bucs running and running some more, meaning Freeman will be relegated to a game-manager role.

Matt Hasselbeck v. CLE 27
Hasselbeck was a hot waiver pickup after his 22 point performance on Sunday, and he did that without Kenny Britt for the most part. Still, I just don't see it happening with his receiving options. Yes, I like Nate Washington a lot as a waiver add, but he's nowhere near Britt, and Matt's other options will be Damian Williams and Jared Cook. This will be a big test to see if Matt is really having a comeback, but I'm not buying it.

DeAngelo Williams v. CHI 16
Obvi.

Knowshon Moreno v. GB 27
Moreno is back practicing in full, but he has played awful and is letting McGahee turn this into a fullblown committee. I'd actually buy-low on Moreno, but only if you're buying really low because he's more talented than McGahee. But this is not the right matchup. Keep both RBs firmly on benches.

Shonn Greene v. BAL 30
This season, Greene is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry and just 45 rushing yards per game, and that was against average run defenses. Against one of the league's toughest, I expect another crappy game from the untalented back.

New Podcast! 9/29

2011-09-29T21:49:00.000-07:00

9/29: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Cory laugh at NFL players' tweets and tell you who's hot and who's not. There are some disagreements about Jon Stewart and Dexter McCluster.

Game Previews: Week 4

2011-09-29T00:12:00.000-07:00

By Cory

After three weeks, studs are proving that they’re studs and duds are proving that they’re duds. The tough calls remain with those players who are yet to perform consistently at one level or the other. If injuries to Britt and Charles weren’t enough, there are plenty of question mark players who look like pro-bowlers one week and 49ers the next week. So far I have made the wrong decision with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Reggie Bush each week, not to mention benching Felix Jones in his breakout performance and not heeding my own advice by leaving Victor Cruz on the bench (not that I knew that he would have such a monster performance but I added him with that expectation). As the season remains young, there is no point in giving up hope yet, but we can glean something from what we’ve seen these past three weeks. With that in mind, here are some tips for this weekend that should hopefully get you a victory.

Redskins at Rams

The Skins have been a bit of a fantasy goldmine this season, but it’s not always clear who the fantasy stud will be. In what was shaping up to be an excellent matchup for Rex Grossman last week against the Boys (yes I’m on a shorthand relationship with the Dallas Cowboys), Sexy Rexy looked more like the Gross Man. Grossman threw an ill-timed interception and failed to connect downfield with Santana Moss. We still like Fred Davis, but the heart of the Washington offense will be in the backfield with Hightower and Helu. Both these backs were plenty involved on Monday night which sounds like trouble for Hightower-owners but Hightower will still get enough touches to be a solid RB2 and should give many owners an advantage considering how late he was drafted. As for Helu, I want to see a little more consistency in his carries and his performance before I would want to start him. For now, Helu remains a thorn in the side of Hightower’s value.

Vikings at Chiefs

I said it last week and I stand by it. Thomas Jones is washed up and will be ineffective as a starting back in the NFL, especially against the Vikes. Jones will most likely get more touches than Dexter McCluster, a.k.a. “Poor Man’s DMC,” but McCluster is the more explosive back and will play a larger role when the Chiefs are playing from behind, which – spoiler alert – will be every game this season. McCluster is a solid flex play but I’d avoid Jones wherever possible.

Lions at Cowboys

You know how much we love the Lions, so let’s get to the NFC East Dallas Cowboys (they complained about me claiming to be on shorthand basis with them). Romo did not look great last week with a decimated receiving group and injury issues of his own and may have lost you your matchup. However, Romo will log a full week of practice this week and be accompanied by a healthy Dez Bryant and Felix Jones which should help his fantasy numbers. Bryant and Jones practiced yesterday and should be full participants this weekend in what figures to be a shootout between two talented offenses. Jones-owners should be happy to see him emerge on Monday night. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, and he will be able to start logging some scores soon. The Cowboys continue to try and make things work with Ogletree but it’s just not there. Ogletree will be getting targets but he is not doing anything with them and would be best suited on your bench or on the waiver wire.

Titans at Browns

Brett has already performed his eulogy for Kenny Britt and we have pointed out that Nate Washington figures to be the beneficiary of Britt’s absence. Washington was putting up serviceable numbers even with Britt around, so his value figures to increase without Britt around. The second biggest disappointment out of the Titans this last weekend was Chris Johnson. In what looked like a solid matchup, Johnson was unable to produce much on the ground. I know we talk about hitting the panic button on Johnson but he is still a very serviceable flex option with the upside of an RB1. If you can get first or second round value on Johnson it might be worth offering him out as trade bait, but I am still a believer that CJ is an every week starter and will return to form soon.

Bills at Bengals

You all already know about our bromance for Ryan “Baby Santa” Fitzpatrick and the rest of the Bills, but the big story in this game is the Cincy backfield. As though things couldn’t get worse for the Cincinnati Bungles, Cedric Benson will likely be serving a three game suspension which will open the door for Bernard Scott to be the workhorse in three favorable matchups. Scott does not fit the mold of a workhorse back, but he has taken over the load in the past and managed to succeed. Scott should be in starting lineups during the three weeks that Benson is eventually suspenced, which nicely corresponds with many bye weeks.

Panthers at Bears

Folks may have panicked about their Carolina players this last weekend, but I liked what I saw. Cam Newton was playing in terrible conditions and still managed to control the game. Kevin said Newton looked like a rookie quarterback, but I think he looked more like an 8-year veteran. Cam Newton controlled the pace of the game and avoided mistakes in a game that the Panthers could have and did win. Against the Bears, I expect Newton to have to be throwing more often which means both he and Steve Smith should have rebound performances. I also like Jonathan Stewart in this game over DeAngello Williams against a tough Bears defense. J-Stew is the more explosive back and will likely have more of an opportunity to excel in the passing game over his over-drafted counterpart.

Saints at Jaguars

The entire Saints offense is a grab bag filled with talent and potential to succeed, but there is no guarantee who the main producer will be. Obviously Drew Brees figures to benefit from this situation, and we love Jimmy Graham as an every week starter, but the rest of the offense is a little murky. Lance Moore was the most reliable target in the passing game and was the go to guy on two 2-point conversion attempts which shows the kind of confidence Brees has in Moore. Meachem is a little less consistent but has the edge over Henderson so this is pretty analogous to the Green Bay offense with Jennings as the must start and Jordy Nelson as the more reliable but less explosive option than James Jones. The New Orleans backfield is just as complicated. Darren Sproles continues to outperform his counterparts and figures to maintain his role in the offense, but last week appeared to be the game where Mark Ingram distanced himself from Pierre Thomas on the ground. All three of these backs remain flex options but my rankings go 1) Darren Sproles, 2) Mark Ingram, 3) Pierre Thomas.

49ers at Eagles

The question on everyone’s mind this week has been the status of Mike Vick for this weekend against a weak 49ers secondary. Vick participated fully in practice yesterday and should be a full go against the 49ers this weekend. Fortunately the injury to Vick’s non-throwing hand turned out to be a deep bruise and not a break, but Vick will be limited by the absence of Jeremy Maclin. Maclin missed practice yesterday and is looking doubtful for this weekend, which means that Jason Avant will most likely start opposite DeSean Jackson. Monitor the Maclin situation, but Avant could make for a sneaky flex play in deeper leagues.

Dolphins at Chargers

Unfortunately for me and my many teams, Reggie Bush once again struggled last weekend and allowed Daniel Thomas to really run away with the starting job. Bush remains a factor in the Miami running game, but the Dolphins are not utilizing Bush’s skill set the way the Saints did. Until the Fins figure out how to get Bush the ball consistently out of the backfield, Bush is a very risky play. On the flipside, Daniel Thomas is starting to look like an every week flex play or RB2 on an offense that leans heavily on the run.

Patriots at Raiders

The Patriots backfield is a mess between Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and now Stevan Ridley getting some action. Unfortunately the Patriots seem set on letting Brady throw the ball in every situation which means that Woodhead is probably the most reliable option of the three as he has emerged as the most consistent receiving back. BJGE had his opportunity at the goal line last week and failed to convert, which does even less for his already decreasing value. On the receiving side, Aaron Hernandez seems optimistic about playing this weekend, but he missed practice yesterday and does not appear to be medically cleared to play. This is a good sign for Hernandez-owners but it still looks doubtful that he will return this weekend.

Jets at Ravens

Santonio Holmes practiced fully yesterday which means he should be a full go even in this difficult matchup. While the Ravens will be giving Mark Sanchez a headache all game, their secondary is more suspect which means that Holmes should be capable of big things. On the other side of the field, Torrey Smith showed what he was capable of last weekend exploding onto the fantasy radar. With Lee Evans most likely out again this weekend, Smith figures to be the number two option opposite Boldin. While Smith put together a monster performance last weekend, we would temper expectations against a much tougher secondary and just shear gravity bringing him back to Earth.

Best of luck in Week 4 and say a little prayer for Cedric Benson to keep a firm grip on the soap!

Fan League Update

2011-09-28T14:52:00.000-07:00

I finally got my first win in the FFMVP Fan League on ESPN, and it was a big one because it was against the first place fan, Trevor from Jacksonville. I was helped in large part by Beanie Wells' surprise inactive status. It's one thing to start Peyton Manning or Miles Austin, but if you started Wells, Peyton Hillis, or Antonio Gates, it's understandable and unfortunate. The negative points I got from Kenny Britt were counterbalanced by 35 points from Wes Welker, and my second highest scorer - Jason Hanson with 17 points. This week, I've dropped the Dallas D for the Houston D because I'm counting on more mistakes from Big Ben's Bad Line. I also had to drop Kenny Britt for Torrey Smith - a bit of a downgrade.

Our very own Kevin is the only undefeated team despite the general suckiness of his first round pick, Chris Johnson, thanks to a favorable early schedule. Even though Kevin is the only 3-0 team, he has the tenth most points out of the 12 teams in the league. Incidentally, Trevor still has the most points in the league. It just goes to show you how much scheduling can affect your fantasy success. I'm of the mindset that these things tend to correct themselves. If you have a ton of points but you're somehow 0-3, you'll probably win more games going forward, and those points will break ties to get you into the playoffs.

Our favorite podcaster and Reggie Bush Fan Club President, Cory, beat Jose from San Jose by literally .1 points (90.4-90.3). Cory needed 9.1 points out of Tony Romo to win and that is exactly what Romo got. The game ended with Romo taking a knee, which gave him -1 rushing yards. If the stat-trackers had credited that final play as -2 rushing yards it would have been a tie. Moreover, if Coach Shanahan had used his timeout after the knee, Romo would have had to take another knee, crushing Cory's dreams. Anyway, that's what makes Monday Night Football the most thrilling experience for us fantasizers!

This week, I'll face the 1-2 Jose. He's helped by the fact that Cedric Benson will play against the Bills on Sunday after all. But I'm helped by the fact that Jose has Antonio Gates, who is likely out. I'm starting Tony Gonzalez but could swap in Aaron Hernandez if his miraculous recovery comes to fruition. Good luck on Sunday, fans!

New Podcast: 9/27

2011-09-27T02:10:00.000-07:00

9/27: New podcast streaming here. Subscribe on iTunes. Listen to high quality audio on YouTube.

Brett and Kevin are joined by special guest fan and Saints expert, Ish, to recap the headlines from the games and tell you who to add, after a Kenny Britt fantasy eulogy.

Working The Waiver: Week 3

2011-09-26T23:48:00.000-07:00

Week 3 was rough for us at FFMVP. I lost Kenny Britt for the season. If he stayed healthy and kept up his WR1 production at his WR4 price, man, give me the championship trophy already. But injuries happen. Last week it was Jamaal Charles, this week it's Kenny Britt, who's it going to be next week? Week 3 also saw a few committee backs say, "Committee? Oh hell no. This is my show!" Ryan Mathews, Ryan Grant, Daniel Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dexter McCluster, and Mark Ingram all took steps in the right direction. I still think James Starks is the back to own in Green Bay, and Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs, Darren Sproles, and Pierre Thomas all remain decent flex plays. Reggie Bush and Thomas Jones should be riding benches for now. On to the Waiver Pickups in order of priority, depending on your positional needs of course. Guys who we've already discussed will show up if they're still available in most leagues, but we've already analyzed them, so we won't do it again:

Torrey Smith (Owned in 14% of Yahoo leagues)

The rookie's first NFL catch was a 74 yard TD. On it's own, that might be a fluke. But he ended the day with 5 receptions for 152 yards, 3 TDs, and 10 rush yards. Lee Evans missed the game and should be back, but Smith cannot simply ride the bench after this electrifying performance. He is exactly the deep threat Joe Flacco needs for a breakout year. If you watched this game, you know why Smith is our number one waiver add this week.

David Nelson (50%, discussed last week)

Nelson, one of our "Hot" starts, caught another 6 balls for 84 yards.

Dexter McCluster (54%, discussed last week)

DMC got all 9 of his carries in the second half after the Chiefs realized how ineffective Thomas Jones is. McCluster ran for 45 yards, and added 5 catches for 17 yards.

Denarius Moore (53%, discussed last week)

Moore caught 4 balls for 34 yards, and had a 23 yard TD run. The Raiders are finding ways to get him the ball!

Nate Washington (32%)

With Kenny Britt done for the year, Washington caught 8 balls for 92 yards and a TD. He was producing even when Britt was there though, hauling in 6 passes for 67 yards, and then 7 passes for 99 yards. Damian Williams will technically take Britt's place in the line-up, but Washington will try his best to pick up the slack with a surprisingly effective Matt Hasselbeck looking for a new go-to guy.

Kendall Hunter (8%)

While Fragile Frank was on the sidelines with an ankle issue, Hunter had 9 carries for 26 yards and the game's only TD, plus 2 catches for 12 yards. Coach Harbaugh says Gore is "good to go" for next weekend, but his practices are something to monitor this week, because Hunter's opportunity could be coming up soon. Of course, his YPC is awful and the whole Niners offense is laughable, but hey, if he gets to be the main guy, that's something!

Antonio Brown (19%)

We praised Antonio Brown as the Steelers WR you want after Mike Wallace, and that's looking more and more true every week. Brown's 8 targets led all Steelers, and he caught 4 balls for 75 yards. Through 3 games, Brown has caught 10 out of 23 targets, compared to Emmanuel Sanders 6 catches on just 11 targets. As Hines Ward continues to decline, look for Brown to step up to the plate as Big Ben's #2 option.

Stevan Ridley (3%)

Ridley was the sensation of New England's preseason games, and reminded us on Sunday with 44 yards, and an 8 yard catch. It's possible that BenJarvus Green-Ellis is just a guy, and anyone semi-competent can excel in the Pat's offense. In that case, there'd be no reason to keep The Law Firm in there over a slightly more effective Ridley. I have a little more faith in BJGE though. Ridley is certainly worth an add because we've seen randos come out of nowhere and be studs on this team before (see BJGE and Woodhead of last year for example). I want to see what happens next week before dropping anyone with upside for Ridley.

Scott Chandler (57%)

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times... I don't really know where this is going. The point is that three games in a row with TDs means this is a trend, not a fluke. And guess which team is leading the NFL in scoring? You guessed it - the Buffalo Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be leading the team down the field to the redzone, giving some goalline opportunities for Mr. Chandler. (Could he BE any more effective at the goalline?!? - That's a little Chandler Bing joke for the Friends fans.)

Montario Hardesty (21%)

With Peyton Hillis out with an illness, Hardesty stepped up with 67 yards on 14 carries, and added 19 yards on 3 catches. Hillis should be back this week, but Hardesty has likely carved out a little role for himself with a few carries to relieve Hillis each week. He would only be startable in the deepest of leagues, but he's shown that if Hillis goes down, which is very possible, Hardesty would be a solid new feature back.

Alfonso Smith (0%)

Beanie Wells was a surprise inactive due to his hamstring, but should be back in Week 4. In his absence, Chester Taylor started but was benched in favor of Alfonso, who had 75 total yards. If Wells can't go again, Smith could be a flex start against the Giants in Week 4. If nothing else, he looks like the right handcuff for Wells-owners.

And finally, kickers deserve little fantasy attention, and there's a growing trend to simply not have kickers on fantasy teams. Most league still have them, and you shouldn't be spending any of your free agent budget on them or trading for them. But at the same time, you have to start one so you should be paying some attention to them. If you drafted a dud, consider Jason Hanson (DET) or Dan Bailey (DAL), who are currently the top 2 fantasy kickers but unowned in the vast majority of leagues.

Game Recaps: Week 3

2011-09-26T10:32:00.000-07:00

New England vs. Buffalo

Is there a more fantasy-tastic team than the New England Patriots? They're currently sporting the number one QB, WR, and TE in fantasy football. But you know to start Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski week in and week out. The RB situation is an unpredictable mess. I thought Green-Ellis was a lock for a TD, but ended up being the least effective RB with 16 yards on 9 carries. Woodhead managed just 41 yards on 9 touches, and the rookie Stevan Ridley had 52 yards on 8 touches. Ridley, the preseason sensation, is worth a look in deeper leagues. But if I can barely trust Green-Ellis and Woodhead in standard leagues, I certainly cannot trust Ridley yet. However, Woodhead certainly came out of nowhere last year; maybe Ridley could do the same.

Miami vs. Cleveland

We cautioned you not to start Daniel Thomas just yet, until we see him do it again. Today, we saw him do it again. Miami, meet your new feature back. Thomas was once again the more effective between-the-tackles runner with 23 carries for 95 yards, compared to 11 carries for just 24 yards for Reggie Bush. And while Bush is supposed to earn his keep in the passing game, he only had one 12-yard catch (his lone target), while Thomas hauled in 3 balls for 27 yards and the score. I'll be starting Thomas and benching Bush going forward.

Houston vs. New Orleans

This Drew Brees character is pretty good. With Marques Colston out for a while, it's "next man up" as they say. Predictably, the target leaders were:

Jimmy Graham: 4 recs, 100 yards, TD, 8 targets.
Lance Moore: 9 recs, 88 yards, TD, 9 targets.
Robert Meachem: 5 recs, 51 yards, TD, 8 targets.
Darren Sproles: 6 recs, 50 yards, 9 targets. (Plus 2 carries for 35 yards and a TD on the ground.)

The return of L.Mo means Henderson will return to his regular background role with the occasional long TD every couple weeks. You can now drop Henderson. You should now be starting Meachem, Moore, Graham, and Sproles every week.

Jacksonville vs. Carolina

Cam Newton was not able to complete the hat trick of 400 yard games. Instead, he looked like a rookie QB, completing just 18 of his 34 pass attempts for 158 yards, and one TD to Greg Olsen. He boosted his fantasy day with 7 carries for 27 yards on the ground, and a Two Point Conversion, also to Olsen. If you didn't see this game or the highlights, you should know that it was pouring rain for most of the game. Imagine trying to go deep while wading through Hurricane Katrina waters. If this is his floor, I think he's a safe starter going forward, but you may have better options next week when Newton faces a menacing Chicago defense.

Baltimore vs. St. Louis

We had been pumping up Joe Flacco because he has the best pass-catching back in the game (Rice), a solid possession receiver (Boldin), and finally a legitimate deep threat (Lee Evans). Lee Evans sat out this game and an even better deep threat stepped in to prove us right. Torrey Smith broke out with 5 catches for 152 yards and 3 TDs, which allowed Flacco to pass for a career-high 389 yards. Smith is probably the top waiver add this week. On the other side of the ball, I'm getting tired of apologizing for Sam Bradford. But before we totally give up hope, remember that he is without his best receiver, Danny Amendola, and that their best offensive threat, Steven Jackson, is not at 100%. What's more, his opening trio of games was against the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens. So let's give him one more chance against the Redskins in Week 4 before cutting bait.

Kansas City vs. San Diego

The Chargers presented a tough first outing for the Jamaal Charles replacements, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster. They were popular adds last week because with a wide opening, there's always a chance that someone steps up. Instead, it was exactly what we thought was most likely to happen: Jones started and got more carries, but McCluster was much more effective (5.0 YPC compared to 2.2 YPC). McClusterF$*k was also more involved in the passing game. They will cannibalize each other's value on a poor offense. I'm cutting Jones, but holding onto McCluster to see if he gets worked in even more next week. Note that all 9 of DMC's carries came in the second half, so he is likely to receive a higher percentage of the carries next week. On the other side, Ryan Mathews appears to have turned this committee into his own show. I was very surprised to see how little Tolbert was used. Part of this can be chalked up to Tolbert's recovery from injury, but more likely, it's due to Mathews' excellent performance. Unfortunately for Tolbert-owners, Mathews is looking like the must-start going forward, while Tolbert is looking like a sit.

Pittsburgh v. Indianapolis

This was shocking to me. I expected Rashard Mendenhall to explode on the ground and even Isaac Redman to get 10 carries or so, while destroying the Colts. Instead, Big Ben passed 37 times in a nail-biter of a game. (The key was Indy's defense scoring a TD and making another big play to allow their FG, keeping Indy in the game.) It was nice to see Roethlisberger being Roethlisberger. The in-game commentators said it best when they said having Mike Wallace as your receiver is like throwing to Usain Bolt out there. The Colts passing game continues to be inept. Our "Hot or Not" headline was "Start Fred Davis Over Dallas Clark." After Clark's 12 yard performance, I'm confident Davis will prove us right tonight on MNF! The Colts may make the switch from Collins to Painter, regardless of health, which probably doesn't help Wayne, Clark, or Collie (who can now safely be cut by the way), but which may help Garcon. Garcon had 6 catches for 82 yards, most of which came late in the game with Painter. Also, Joseph Addai has been awful through two weeks, but averages over 5 yards-per-carry with a TD against the frickin' Steelers? Say what? Meanwhile Delone Carter got just 4 carries for 11 yards. Addai was running hard as if to prevent this from becoming a committee, and it looks like he did indeed maintain his feature-back role.