The Fantasy Sports Boss

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL SPRING TRAINING WRAPUP: SATURDAY.

2021-03-07T06:10:00.001-08:00

-It is nothing but a minor hamstring strain suffered by Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Luis Urias and he should be back in action in the next few days. Considered a top prospect not all that long ago, Urias has scuffled so far at the major league level. That being said, he remains an upside late round grab who could yield some decent value if he catches playing time.

-Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has had no setbacks in his rehab from a broken thumb and is expected to be in the lineup for Opening Day. Realmuto was the first big injury of spring training but the consensus top fantasy baseball catcher by a mile should be ready to go when the games count.

-Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez has a very murky immediate future after suffering a broken finger in his last spring outing. Surgery is not recommended at this point but it figures to be awhile before we see the interesting high-K pitcher in fantasy baseball.

-Atlanta Braves pitcher Sean Newcomb had a possible COVID exposure that will keep him away from the team until he passes some tests. He remains a terrible control pitcher whose decent K rate has been overshadowed by the free passes.

-New York Mets ace Jacob DeGrom threw two scoreless frames in his first spring outing and he hit 100 on the radar gun. DeGrom struck out three and was named the team's Opening Day starter.

-The news was not so great for top Seattle Mariners outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic who was diagnosed with a strained abductor muscle in his knee. No word has been given on how long he will be out but it may keep him down on the farm until May as opposed to mid-April once his Super 2 status was reached.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL THIRD BASEMAN RANKINGS

2021-03-07T06:03:00.005-08:00

Just like with shortstop, third base remains a very deep position that goes about 12 deep in terms of very good starting options. Let's see how they currently stack up.

1. Jose Ramirez

2. Alex Bregman

3. Manny Machado

4. Nolan Arenado

5. Anthony Rendon

6. Rafael Devers

7. Kris Bryant

8. Eugenio Suarez

9. Matt Chapman

10. Josh Donaldson

11. Yoan Moncada

12. Justin Turner

13. Alec Bohm

14. Gio Urshela

15. Ke'Bryan Hayes

16. J.D. Davis

17. Kyle Seager

18. Tommy Edman

19. Brian Anderson

20. Carter Kieboom

21. Austin Riley

22. Eduardo Escobar

23. Maikel Franco

24. Yandy Diaz

25. Edwin Rios

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL SPRING TRAINING WRAPUP: FRIDAY

2021-03-06T07:02:00.002-08:00

-Houston Astros top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley will be shut down for awhile after reporting soreness in his pitching arm. The hard-throwing Whitley has faced setback after setback during his development as he dealt with injuries and a PED suspension. Once a decent prospect target, Whitley is not worth your time until he gets healthy.

-Top Seattle Mariners outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic injured his knee during Friday's game but the issue is considered minor. While he will likely begin the season in the minors due to service time manipulation, Kelenic looks to be the real deal who would not shock anyone if he came out as a rookie and hit 20-plus homers and stole double-digit bags.

-Atlanta Braves utility man Johan Camargo went 1-for-2 in Friday's game and he remains a person of interest in fantasy baseball as a David Fletcher-like player you can plug in all over the field on light schedule days or as a short-term injury replacement.

-Braves pitching prospect Kyle Wright remains the favorite to win the team's fifth starter gig as he tossed three innings against the Twins with one hit given up and striking out two. That being said, Wright has struggled badly in the majors in 2019 and 2020 and his overall stuff doesn't generate any upside for fantasy baseball.

-Los Angeles Angels DH/SP Shohei Ohtani hit 100-mph while he struck out five batters in his spring debut on Friday. That outing alone shows up the massive upside Ohtani has not only as a pitcher but also as a hitter. Injuries are always going to be a concern here but Ohtani has SP 2/3 stuff right out of the gate if he can make it to the season in one piece.

-The groin injury suffered by Phillies outfielder Adam Haseley will keep him out the next four weeks which means fading prospect Scott Kingery is now the favorite to start in his place on Opening Day. We have seen glimpses of big-time ability out of Kingery in the past as he can hit for power and also steals some bases so be sure to place him on your late round radar.

-Already with 2 home runs this spring, Baltimore Orioles outfielder D.J. Stewart came out of Friday's game with a slight hamstring tweak. He is considered day-to-day but is barely worth value in AL-only leagues.

-Astros SS/3B Alex Bregman is getting closer to making his spring debut despite dealing with a nagging hamstring issue. While Bregman was not overly impressive in 2020, he remains a supreme talent whose second to third round price tag looks like a smart investment.

-Chicago Cubs infielder Javier Baez avoided disaster on Friday as an HBP to his hand looks scary when it happened. Afterwards the team announced it was just a bruise and he is day-to-day. Having struggled badly in 2020, Baez is coming at a nice discount in 2021 fantasy baseball drafts. A proven power hitter who can steal the odd base, Baez is a terrific buy low option.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL SHORTSTOP RANKINGS

2021-03-05T14:19:00.003-08:00

The depth at the shortstop position is downright silly this season and while you would love to have Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, or Trevor Story, some immense value can be found here given how deep the position goes.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr.

2. Francisco Lindor

3. Trevor Story

4. Trea Turner

5. Xander Bogaerts

6. Bo Bichette

7. Tim Anderson

8. Corey Seager

9. Adalberi Mondesi

10. Javier Baez

11. Gleyber Torres

12. Carlos Correa

13. Dansby Swanson

14. Marcus Semien

15. Wander Franco

16. Jorge Polanco

17. Didi Gregorious

18. Andres Gimenez

19. Paul DeJong

20. Amed Rosario

21. Wily Adames

22. Orlando Arcia

23. Miguel Rojas

24. Kevin Newman

25 David Fletcher

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER

2021-03-05T09:11:00.003-08:00

There were a bunch of surprises in what was a crazy and unpredictable 2020 fantasy baseball season that was shortened to 60 games. While many big name players struggled to adjust to the unprecedented season, other thrived. Then there were those performances that came out of nowhere such as what we saw out of San Diego Padres second baseman Jake Croneworth. Despite having not reached the majors until the age of 26 and with a modest draft pedigree after going in the seventh round of his class, Croneworth did a terrific job in batting .285 with 4 home runs and 3 stolen bases for the team. Add in 26 runs and 20 RBI and Croneworth became a five-tool fantasy baseball asset at a shallow position for those who took an early stab while ignoring the no-name history. Of course we have seen many instances of guys coming out of nowhere and then quickly moving back to oblivion the following year (Chris Shelton anyone?) but at the very least, Croneworth should remain a person of interest as a sleeper candidate at a second base spot that is not very deep.

Digging into the numbers a bit, it is easy to see how smooth of a hitting approach Croneworth has. Striking out at just a 15.6 K/9 rate and also walking at a 9.4 BB/9 clip, the kid certainly has an advanced understanding of the zone. The combination of walks and low strikeouts should make Croneworth a perennial threat to bat .300 or better and anyone who has owned DJ LeMahieu can understand the allure. Add in the fact that Croneworth has some power and stole 20 bases at Double-A in 2018 and there are a bunch of numbers here that could be quite intriguing in tandem.

Now again it is very possible Croneworth will get exposed in 2021 during his second tour around the game but there is also a chance he builds off his nice debut. There is risk for sure when cutting the check but given how shallow second base is this season, a stab here seems worth the effort.

2021 PROJECTION: .293 11 HR 63 RBI 73 RBI 14 SB

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL SECOND BASEMAN RANKINGS

2021-03-04T07:16:00.002-08:00

Here are the updated 2021 fantasy baseball second baseman rankings as of the beginning of spring training:

1. Ozzie Albies

2. DJ LeMahieu

3. Ketel Marte

4. Jose Altuve

5. Cavan Biggio

6. Keston Hiura

7. Jake Croneworth

8. Brandon Lowe

9. Kolten Wong

10. Mike Moustakas

11. Jonathan Villar

12. Jean Segura

13. Nick Madrigal

14. Cesar Hernandez

15. Hanser Alberto

16. Gavin Lux

17. Adam Frazier

18. Luis Arraez

19. Jonathan Schoop

20. Tommy LaStella

21. Roghned Odor

22. Donovan Solano

23. Ryan McMahon

24. Starlin Castro

25. Scott Kingery

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: COREY KLUBER PASSES FIRST TEST

2021-03-04T07:10:00.001-08:00

With just one single inning logged a year ago which followed an injury-ruined 2019, expectations were on the floor for former two-time Cy Young Award winning pitcher Corey Kluber. The former 220-K ace had one of the best five season run of performance prior to the injuries which netted the two Cy Youngs but Kluber was only able to garner a one year deal from the New York Yankees worth $11 million for 2021. The hope according to Yanks GM Brian Cashman was that Kluber could find health again at the age of 34 but he also admitted the signing was somewhat of a lottery ticket. Well so far so good as Kluber was excellent on Wednesday as he tossed two perfect innings that included three strikeouts. While we are still far from the season starting, Kluber is trending upwards in terms of his stuff and outlook for 2021 fantasy baseball. After missing so much time, Kluber's arm is undoubtedly fresh and his fastball humming the way it did Wednesday was a great sign. Now the piper will need to be called sometime in July for Kluber if he does stay healthy as the innings piling up after so much missed time will start to eat away at his ERA and WHIP but four good months of production for a very cheap draft cost are looking better by the day.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT SLEEPER: MYLES STRAW OUTFIELDER HOUSTON ASTROS

2021-03-03T06:01:00.002-08:00

In the fantasy baseball world, such no-name players like a Jarrod Dyson or a Drew Stubbs or a Scott Podsednik have garnered so much more attention or hype than they did in the real world game based almost exclusively on their skill at swiping bases. Given that most standard fantasy baseball leagues using a 5 x 5 component in scoring have steals as one of the five hitting categories, these players are often in high demand on draft day and can go for some exorbitant prices. That brings us to Houston Astros outfielder Myles Straw who very well could end up becoming the next speed specialist that makes an impact in fantasy baseball based on just his ability to swipe bags and he began to show off that skill by taking one off New York Mets catcher James McCann on Tuesday.

In terms of Straw and his history, he originally was a 12th round pick of the team back in 2015 and took his time reaching the major leagues. Throughout his minor league tenure however, Straw put up some nice stolen bases numbers and leadoff skills that included high walk rates. He would debut with the Astros for 9 games in 2018 when he batted .333 and follow it up with 56 more contests in 2019 when the average was still a decent .269. Altogether Straw swiped 10 bases and posted BB/9 rates in double digits but it still was not enough to secure an everyday spot for 2020.

During the shortened 2020 season, Straw struggled in the 33 games he did get from the Astros as he batted just .207 and struck out at an ugly 25.6 K/9 rate but he deserves somewhat of a mulligan as all players do given the COVID challenges the entire season presented. Fast forward to present day and it appears Houston management is ready to fully unleash Straw as the team's everyday centerfielder and leadoff batter and that my friends is a very intriguing proposition when it comes to the speed side of things. While Straw still has to prove he can hit, the fact he walks a lot is a bonus to his batting average prospects and with OBP marks that have been every good at every stop he has made along the way, there should be plenty of chances to run. Already multiple statistical predictor companies have Straw stealing between 25 and 35 bases and that alone should have him nestled as a very interesting speculative late round pick.

As of now there is not much chatter when it comes to Straw but that will change if he keeps swiping bases this spring like he did on Tuesday. While there are questions about the batting average and that there is pretty much no power to speak of, Straw has the chance for 30 steals and 75 runs which puts him in solid OF 3 territory.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT BUST: HYUN-JIN RYU SP TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2021-03-01T07:36:00.001-08:00

First some statistical nuances to digest on before proceeding further. The first is that Toronto Blue Jays veteran starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is second in all of baseball in ERA-plus going back to 2018 behind the New York Mets' Jacob DeGrom. Of course, a second statistic here is that Ryu threw 157 fewer innings than DeGrom so that needs to be taken into account when viewing the Blue Jays veteran through this lens. The fact of the matter is though is that when he is heathy, Ryu has been a very good pitcher who has straddled the SP 1/2 line. The flip side though is that Ryu is seemingly always hurt and in only 3 of his 8 seasons has he qualified for the ERA title. That being said, Ryu has logged splendid ERA's of 2.69, 2.32, and 1.97 the last three seasons and he will be entrusted to work at the front of a Jays rotation that has a bunch of reclamation projects behind him in Steven Matz, Tyler Chatwood, and Robbie Ray.

Digging in on Ryu a bit more, he spent the first 7 seasons of his career in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and he took advantage of the pitching-leanings of their ballpark to really put himself on the map as a terrific pitcher who has a four-pitch arsenal. Despite a fastball that generally averages just 90-91 throughout his career, Ryu gets great movement on his secondary offerings and is around 50 percent with a ground ball rate which is what you want to see from someone pitching in Toronto. Given that Ryu keeps the ball on the ground at such a lofty rate, the home run haven that is Rogers Center is minimized a bit. However Ryu still has to deal with a very rough AL East for a full season (and not the shortened variety such as 2020) and the fact he won't be facing opposing pitchers as of this writing is also another knock. The biggest problem though are the injuries and Ryu is one of those guys who is almost guaranteed to hit the IL at least once and for an extended stay. Given that the cost has risen on Ryu's ADP the last few seasons, it makes him one that is very risky. Add in a K/9 rate that has only gone above 8.5 twice in his 8 MLB campaigns and Ryu is a bottom line guy who needs the innings to justify his cost. If Ryu were in the NL we would be more likely to take a stab here but in the AL not so much.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL ISSUES: FLY BALL PITCHERS PRESENT DECENT VALUE

2021-02-26T08:23:00.005-08:00

Hear us out. The notion of investing in fly ball pitchers during this insane home run binge the last few seasons would seem to be a strategy to ensure your team finishes in the basement of your fantasy baseball league but 2021 will bring some change on what became a very frustrating development for everyone attached to the game. So while fans no doubt love the long ball, we had reached a point of overkill the last few seasons as the "juiced" baseball fly out left and right all game long. Thus, pitchers who were of the fly ball variety saw their ERA's and WHIP's inflate a bit unfairly as one or two bad pitches in an otherwise dominant game did tremendous damage to bottom line numbers. Alas, MLB came out a few weeks ago and not only admitted to the juiced ball in not so many words but that they were deadening it for 2021 with the expectation that home run totals would drop sharply. So what does this mean for 2021 fantasy baseball? That means those fly ball pitchers who avoided before are not set up to see the biggest boost to their values this season as their ERA's and WHIP's will settle this season more than those who get most of their outs on the ground.

Taking this a step further, here are the more notable fly ball pitchers who should earn an extra look or a few extra draft dollars this spring:

1. Julio Urias

2. Lance Lynn

3. Gerrit Cole

4. Tyler Glasnow

5. Chris Bassitt

6. Kyle Hendricks

7. Marco Gonzales

8. Mike Fiers

9. Andrew Heaney

10. Jon Lester

11. Trevor Bauer

12. Zack Greinke

13. Johnny Cueto

14. Martin Perez

15. Aaron Civale

16. Mike Minor

17. Zach Davies

18. Clayton Kershaw

19. Jose Berrios

20. Lucas Giolito

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL ISSUES: LAST CHANCE TO GET DOMINIC SMITH BEFORE HUGE BREAKOUT

2021-02-26T08:08:00.001-08:00

Bank on it. Put it in ink. Bet the house. New York Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith will become the next big slugger in fantasy baseball as soon as the 2021 season commences. So confident are we that Smith will post a monster season that we suggest reaching a round or two early over his current draft ADP in order to ensure you have a piece of the action. Already Smith has hinted at what is to come after he quietly earned some MVP consideration in the shortened 2020 season when he hit 10 home runs, collected 42 RBI, and batted a smooth .316 as he and not Pete Alonso became the slugging talk of the team.

Now in terms of delving in on the particulars, Smith has always been lauded for both his power and ability to hit for average as he was originally the 11th overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft and soon he was tearing things up in the minor leagues. Alas, Smith would then stumble a bit as an undiagnosed sleep apnea condition left him constantly tired and sapped his concentration and some power. The issue also led to some run-ins with the Mets front office that included being deactivated by the team for the Grapefruit League opener at the start of 2019. Once Smith was diagnosed however, he quickly began correcting the condition by hooking up to a BIPAP machine at night to aid in breathing and the results since have been dramatic. Not only was Smith terrific in 2020 but he also batted .282 with 11 home runs in 197 at-bats in a partial 2019 campaign that saw him fall prey to injury. Fast forward to 2021 and all is in place for Smith to work either as a cost-effective starting fantasy baseball first baseman, a terrific UTIL or CI option, or as strong as an OF 2 this season.

We already have noted the natural power that Smith possesses and he was on pace for around 30 home runs if 2020 was of the 162-game variety. Still just 25, Smith has not even reached his prime just yet which speaks to how exciting an investment he is this spring. Not only a power hitter, Smith has the chops to hit .300 or better yet again as his 22.5 K/9 rate is league average and he draws enough walks with a 7.0 and 9.6 BB/9 marks the last two seasons to keep pitchers honest. Add in the RBI and runs opportunities that will come in a stacked Mets lineup and eligibility both at first and the outfield and Smith is quite possibly out favorite sleeper of the upcoming season. So do yourself a favor and get some shares here because you miss out on what is looking like a monster breakout.

2021 PROJECTION: .304 28 HR 98 RBI 88 R 2 SB

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: WILL SMITH CATCHER LOS ANGELES DODGERS

2021-02-24T07:43:00.004-08:00

By now it is common knowledge in fantasy baseball that the catcher position is one big cesspool on part with tight ends in fantasy football. Every season there are 2 or 3 very good options and then nothing but question marks from that point onward. With Yankees slugging catcher Gary Sanchez doing his best to act like the worst hitter in all of baseball a year ago, the position is even more volatile than ever. Which brings us to the Los Angeles Dodgers' Will Smith who at the age of just 26 in March is shaping up to make a run at the top spot at the position during the 2021 season. Already lauded for impressive power while coming up the minor league ladder, Smith's knack for drawing walks at an above-average rate allowed him to bat .289 a year ago after a .253 rookie debut in 2019. Even better, the knock on Smith while in the minors was that he was a strikeout machine but after posting a K/9 rate of 26.5 as a rookie, a new approach at the dish he unveiled last season helped him lower that mark to a swell 16.1. The latter number is very rare for a catcher in today's game and when you combine the tidy average with the fact Smith cracked 8 home runs in just 137 at-bats a year ago, you can really see the potential that is at hand here.

Now of course we still have to see what Smith will do across a full MLB season and it is likely that the rigors of donning the tools of ignorance for six months would have sent the average downward from the .289 of last season. On the flip side, Smith would have also easily cleared 20 home runs at his pace and 75 RBI would have been in play as well. So we are talking about some very impressive and rare offensive numbers for a catcher and that makes Smith a prime target in drafts this spring given these tools. Yes the cost will be high for someone who is still not a finished product but Smith's path is clearly on the upswing as we head into the new season.

2021 PROJECTION: .263 23 HR 74 RBI 63 R 2 SB

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL SPRING TRAINING WRAPUP: MONDAY

2021-02-22T14:14:00.001-08:00

Some news and notes from around the game as fantasy baseball spring training has begun:

-Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins was medically cleared to play from his elbow issues and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Like from the moment he arrived on the scene, Hoskins is a pure power hitting asset who will help in homers and runs and not much else. Add in some ugly batting averages and Hoskins is now looking like just another power specialist after he caught some early hype in fantasy baseball. Try to avoid.

-Great news for Baltimore Orioles outfielder Trey Mancici who will have no restrictions in spring training after coming back from cancer surgery. Remember that Mancici had a career-year just prior to the cancer diagnosis and is quietly a 25-home run bat who can also hit for average. Think Mike Morse from back in the day which makes him a very useful OF 3.

-The Milwaukee Brewers are taking a hard look at Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley Jr. made some inroads with his batting approach a year ago and can hit 15 homers and steal 8-10 bags so don't ignore him in five OF formats.

-Ian Kennedy signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers. After doing decent enough work as a closer for the Kansas City Royals, Kennedy could eventually work his way to the ninth if things break down in front of him.

-Jeremy Jeffress signed a minor league deal with the Washington Nats but he is in no way a threat to Brad Hand as the team's closer.

-Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto is taking up his new approach at the dish and a big finish to his 2020 season lends some credence that there could be some sneaky value as a CI or UTIL bat for at least one more season.

-Kansas City Royals starter Brad Keller is going to incorporate his changeup more this season after he found some nice success with it in 2020 when he logged a 2.47 ERA in 54.2 innings. Despite the nice season, Keller should be ignored almost everywhere.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL ISSUES: BREWERS ARE PITCHING SLEEPER CENTRAL

2021-02-22T14:06:00.002-08:00

If you are a guy like yours truly who is always on the lookout for nicely priced starting pitchers with high upside instead of paying massive freight in there early rounds, the Milwaukee Brewers have some deals for you. While known more for their hitting over the years, the Brew Crew have not one but TWO prime pitching sleepers who carry the immense potential to each reach ace status for the price of an SP 2 or 3 draft cost. We are referring of course to Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes who both have sizable strikeout ability and also advanced rate stats that scream out future number 1 or 2 starter.

Let's start off with Woodruff who figures to come at a higher cost than Burnes due to his linear growth the last few seasons. For one thing, Woodruff has really upped his strikeout ability the last four seasons as he went from an ugly 6.7 rate in 2017 all the way up to 11.1 a year ago. Add in K rates over 10.0 in both 2018 and 2019 and Woodruff has more than proven his high upside ability in the strikeout realm alone. Then when you add in the fact he has logged ERA's of 3.62 and 3.05 the last two seasons and WHIP's of 1.14 and 0.99 in that span and boy is there a lot to like here. What really makes Woodruff stand out even more is that he is a groundball pitcher and has uncanny control for someone who strikes out as many guys as he does. With BB/9 rates of 2.22 and 2.20 the last two seasons, Woodruff pretty much checks all of the boxes in terms of his ability reeking of the ace variety. Yes he is a late bloomer at the age of 28 and the 121.2 innings he tossed in 2019 are an MLB high for him which calls into question whether Woodruff can sustain this level of pitching over a full 162-game season but at least for the first half of 2021, the number could be insanely good. Worst case scenario is that you can also sell high on Woodruff when July comes around as he should tire from that point on but that is a concern for a future date.

In term of Burnes, he is the younger of the two at 26 but also someone who has less of a track record after pitching to a horrid 8.82 ERA in 2019. Burnes pitched mostly out of the bullpen that season however and in the shortened 2020 campaign, he was terrific with a 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 59.2 innings pitched. Add in an immense 88 K's in 59.2 innings and boy as Burnes a terrific strikeout artist. Unlike with Woodruff though, Burnes has rough control with 3.67 and 3.62 BB/9 rates the last two seasons but anyone who can punch out as many batters like he can puts him in the sleeper tier for the late middle rounds.

When you look at both guys through a prism, Woodruff is the one who really can reach ace status, while Burnes could be an SP 3 if all breaks right. What you are certain of is receiving a ton of strikeouts between the two of them and the upside to really pay off as upside picks.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: ADALBERTO MONDESI SS Kansas City ROYALS

2021-02-21T13:36:00.002-08:00

Run Adalberto RUN! That about sums it up when it comes to Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi who in his young career has become one of the more polarizing players in all of fantasy baseball. On the one hand you have the supreme base stealer in the game whose value on that statistic alone carries immense value in an MLB era where that skill is vanishing quickly. On the other hand, you have critics who rightfully knock Mondesi for a completely undisciplined hitting approach that results in brutal OBP numbers and annually shaky batting averages. Even though it seems like Mondesi has been around forever as he gets set for his sixth MLB campaign, he is still only 25 and won't turn 26 until July. So in essence Mondesi still has room to grow as he is still a year or so away from his prime but for now he remains a very skilled but flawed player.

Digging in a bit more on the numbers, Mondesi batted .256 with 6 home runs and 24 steals in 219 at-bats in the shortened 2020 campaign. The OBP remained ugly at .294 and Mondesi was comically bad both with his 4.7 BB/9 and 30.0 K/9 rates. So as you can see, Mondesi is not pretty on a day-to-day basis with his numbers but on the flip side, no one in the game today is a more potent base stealer and the allure here is that if the guy can just gain even a smidge of improvement in terms of approach, 70 steals is not out of the question. Those 70 steals would be pure fantasy baseball gold and even 50 would fall into that category as well. Hence, the continued high cost of owning Mondesi this season but like with those who annually overpaid for the flawed Billy Hamilton before him, the risk remains sizable. So in terms of how to handle Mondesi in 2021, we have no issues if you choose to use an early third round pick here but that is only if you spent picks 1 and 2 on .300 hitters who have pop. That is the best avenue toward Mondesi ownership and anything more pricy that an early third round pick would force us to pass. Again the steals are going to be insane here but the damage Mondesi will do elsewhere surely can offset some of this impact.

2021 PROJECTION: .255 10 HR 43 RBI 75 R 46 SB

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL STOCK WATCH: BE CAREFUL WITH DINELSON LAMET

2021-02-20T14:13:00.001-08:00

Now that's not good. San Diego Padres fireballing starter Dinelson Lamet admitted to reporters on Saturday that doctors informed him the likelihood of him tearing a ligament in his elbow and being forced to undergo a second Tommy John surgery if he kept pitching through the end of last season. Given that Lamet throws 100-mph, this is not good news to hear at all and it pumps the breaks in this space in terms of targeting him in drafts. We have always been big boosters of Lamet given his massive strikeout ability and spacious home ballpark when combined give off the aura of a future fantasy baseball ace. While Lamet is capable of reaching that level in 2021, his draft price has risen under all the recent hype to the point that he carries some significant risk. So while we wouldn't avoid Lamet altogether, we are only looking here if he can be had for your SP 3 at most.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT SLEEPER: RAMON LAUREANO OUTFIELDER OAKLAND A'S

2021-02-20T14:09:00.001-08:00

When looking back at the extreme volatility that was the 2020 shortened fantasy baseball season, there were a slew of beyond rough seasons posted by a ton of previously high-end players that the entire campaign was one big throw out. With just 60 games or less of numbers to post, those who were slow starters at the dish or who missed time with injury were then stuck with some ugly statistics that perhaps clouded their overall profile heading into the 2021 fantasy baseball season. As we have said countless times since, the entirety of the numbers last season have to be taken with a grain of salt and so it is a great idea to just look more toward 2019 than 2020 when it comes to projecting things going forward. This brings us to Oakland A's outfielder Ramon Laureano who had a extremely tough go of it last season when he batted just .213 with 6 home runs and 2 steals in 183 at-bats. The real shame of it all is that Laureano was a big target of this peanut stand given how much of a revelation he was in 2019 when he exploded onto the scene with 24 home runs, 13 steals, and a .288 average at the age of 24. Given the attraction of any power/speed offensive player, Laureano's ability to also hit for average quietly put him on the five category tier leading into last season. Alas, things went haywire for Laureano whose decent start to the season was soon marred by a slump and an incident where he charged the Houston Astros dugout which incited a brawl. Add in being hit by a pitch three times in the Astros series and Laureano became totally unhinged last season. So as we continue to espouse, it is best to throw the numbers out for Laureano regarding last season and instead, target him as a very nice sleeper pick who will come at a cheap draft cost. Again we are talking about potential five category production who can be had for a middle round cost. So your best bet is to be aggressive here as Laureano is very talented and capable of big numbers if all breaks right.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL ISSUES: SIX-MAN ROTATIONS VERY POSSIBLE, FURTHER HURTING STARTER VALUE

2021-02-20T13:54:00.001-08:00

Yesterday we went into our even more stated opinion that using a high draft pick on a starting pitcher is a terrible idea given the fact they have the highest injury rate by far of any position on the field and that issue will grow even more potent now that every pitcher has to ramp up from zero or less than 100 innings a year ago to now 150 at least for 2021. Now we get word from a number of teams around the league that a six-man rotation may be in play to remedy some of these health concerns. One prominent team that came out and said as much was the New York Mets as manager Luis Rojas exclaimed on Saturday when meeting with the media. The Mets already had Jacob DeGrom, David Peterson, and a June return of Noah Syndergaard under contract heading into last winter and then under new owner Steve Cohen, swung trades for Carlos Carrasco, Jordan Yammamoto, and Joey Lucchesi; while also signing Taijaun Walker and Jerad Eickhoff. With each of those names having great to decent MLB experience, the Mets have the arms to do so. So in essence, starting pitchers will see even MORE value taken way since their innings would be curbed a bit more and then have their turn in the rotation moved back an extra day or two each time through. So for those who are still holding out on the thought that taking starters early is a good idea, you may want to rethink that strategy.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL ISSUES: STARTING PITCHING DANGER

2021-02-19T12:29:00.001-08:00

Boy is this going to get ugly. Already it is well-established that this site has continually advised AGAINST drafting pitchers early in yearly fantasy baseball drafts given the high volatility that centers on an injury rate that is unmatched at any other position. Add in that a starter only impacts four standard ROTO categories while a five tool hitter you can get in the first three rounds impacts five and it is foolish to use such precious draft commodity on a pitcher. This mantra will only be reinforced tenfold for 2021 as starters will now be expected to ramp up from pitching on average 60-70 innings from a year ago in the shortened campaign to now 150-200 in this expected full season. That has disaster written all over it from a health standpoint as injuries will be more pronounced than ever before. So while there are still some who think drafting a Gerrit Cole or Jacob DeGrom in the first or second round is a smart ploy with the belief that having a rock solid stud makes sense, these guys are just as prone to getting hurt as any other hurler.

So in terms of 2021, we continue to espouse using the first three rounds to go for hitters (ideally a five tool outfielder, first baseman, and a shortstop) and then you can take your first look at a pitcher in Round 4. We are going to go all in on number 2 or 3 starters this season and you can make a fantastic rotation out of guys such as the following who will all make our lists:

Sonny Gray

Zac Gallen

Jack Flaherty

Lance Lynn

Kenta Maeda

Carlos Carrasco

Dinelson Lamet

Tyler Glasnow

Corbin Burnes

Zack Wheeler

Jose Berrios

Chris Paddack

Patrick Corbin

David Price

Eduardo Rodriguez

Frankie Montas

Julio Urias

These are all terrific starters and four of these would make a tremendous rotation and then you can add a bunch of high upside fliers. So where in the past we would go into the season with 5 starters, we will now go up to 7 given they injury issues that will be a major part of the season. This is the correct way to go here so go all in on this strategy.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT SLEEPER: Dylan Moore OUTFIELDER SEATTLE MARINERS

2021-02-18T14:17:00.001-08:00

While San Francisco's Mike Yastrzemski earned a ton of rightful praise as a late blooming hitter for the Giants in 2020, another outfielder in a similar boat out west was Seattle Mariners outfielder Dylan Moore. Already 29-years-old, it took Moore until 2019 to show some very intriguing fantasy baseball skills that make him someone to target as a rare sleeper who is pushing up on 30. After all this is what happens when you go out and post 9/11 and 8/12 slashes in the home runs/stolen base categories the last two seasons and so Moore is absolutely someone to dig a bit deeper prior to drafts this spring.

As we already noted, Moore is a late bloomer who was originally a seventh round pick back in 2015 by the Texas Rangers. After failing to make it to the majors with the Rangers, it took Moore until 2019 to finally get a look where he batted .206 with 9 home runs and 11 steals in just 282 at-bats. Now the average was very ugly obviously and a hideous 33.0 K/9 rate did its thing there. However the juice is apparent in Moore's game as he has good power and the wheels to help in the run game as well. Think a poor man's Starling Marte here with an uglier average as a comparison.

Proving his 2019 debut was no fluke, Moore then went out and improved his average to .255 last season with another 8 home runs and 12 steals in 159 at-bats. Clearly, Moore has interesting power and speed and those players are becoming more rare by the year in fantasy baseball. Add in an expected spot in the number 2 slot in the order this season for the M's and Moore will also have the ability to pad his runs scored and to a lesser extent his RBI total. Given the low profile that is presented for almost all Seattle players, it literally will cost almost nothing to own Moore this season and at the very least he makes for a swell OF 3 or bench option to plug in when he is needed. Again, power/speed guys like Moore don't grow on trees anymore and those in search of value can do a lot worse here in the later rounds of the draft.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL ISSUES: DEAD BALL ERA TO BEGIN

2021-02-18T09:16:00.002-08:00

In finally admitting the obvious, MLB pretty much came out and copped to the fact the baseball has been royally juiced the last few seasons and have taken firm steps for 2021 to make sure the home run derby that was taking place on a nightly basis will be lessened. This is obviously a big piece of news for the upcoming fantasy baseball season on a number of fronts, with the first being that most or all of the home run totals will dip for hitters in 2021. While pure power guys like Cody Bellinger or Anthony Rizzo may not be impacted as much, guys like Paul DeJong or Marcus Semien will likely become shaky investments overnight given how much they benefitted from the juiced ball of late. Hence, it is imperative that you pay some extra attention to the overall game of any hitter you want to draft this season and in particular focus on positive batting averages. Given that DeJong and Semien don't help in the average department, the dip in steals is a big hit to their value and this is especially true since they don't also steal bases. So in essence, you can only accept shaky average hitters as either backups or if they steal basis like a Cavan Biggio. So again with the power numbers dipping all across the game, the difference between players will come in the average and steals departments which will help if you pick up guys who help there. For example someone like Andres Gimenez who may not hit for a high average but who can offset that with stolen bases. Or an Alec Bohm who can hit for average and decent pop but not swipe many bases. This is the trend you should be looking at for your teams this season and this is likely going to determine more than anything who will be the contenders in your leagues.

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: Cavan Biggio 2B TORONTO BLUE JAYS

2021-02-17T14:53:00.004-08:00

I guess the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Already filled with Hall of Fame genes as the son of former Houston Astros great Craig, Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Cavan Biggio has quickly become a fantasy baseball darling after posting HR/SB totals of 16/14 and 8/6 during his first two seasons in the majors as a much-hyped prospect. What also has been very impressive with Biggio has been his uncanny patience for a young player as his BB/9 rates of 16.5 and 15.5 are as good as it gets which really elevated him in leagues that use OBP. So it appears on paper as we move to the 2021 fantasy baseball season that Biggio should be front and center as an early round draft pick and that makes sense given the power/speed game as a whole. That being said, there are still some issues with Biggio which tempers the enthusiasm just a bit and for him this centers on his ugly .234 and .250 batting averages his first MLB seasons and this was the concern about him when he made the journey from the minors to the majors in 2019. The question is whether Biggio can make gains there this season and if so, how high he could elevate his numbers across a full season.

As far as the average is concerned, Biggo's very high walk rates should be a major boost to making gains in that category but the offset is that he has been a high strikeout guy going back to his minor league days. That followed Biggio to the Jays as his 28.6 K/9 was hideous as a rookie but in his defense, that number dipped some to a much more acceptable 23.0 a year ago. Considering that Biggio is only 25, is stands to reason he can still make gains there as he further develops this season. As noted earlier, the high walks rate is one big boost to helping that number and if Biggio can curb the K's even a little more towards the 20.0 range, his overall value could really explode given the fact he can be a 20/20 guy easy if MLB gets a full season in. So with all that said, Biggio is a guy we would target heavily in the third round this season as we feel confident he can curb the K's even more and since the batting average would rise in response, this combined with the power/speed game could quickly turn him to one of the best overall players in the game.

2021 PROJECTION: .267 22 HR 65 RBI 88 R 19 SB

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT BUST: CARLOS CORREA SS HOUSTON ASTROS

2021-02-17T14:40:00.003-08:00

I guess when you know what pitch is coming, it makes it easier to compile numbers. This is the only way to currently view Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa who it seems like just yesterday was the guy everyone in the fantasy baseball community was drooling over as the former 2012 number 1 pick overall went nuts right out of the MLB gate when he posted HR/SB totals of 22/14 and 20/13 his first two seasons in the league. It was at that point however where serious injuries began to take hold and almost from the start of his third season in 2017, Correa pretty much completely lost the ability or desire to steal bases. With that very precious tool removed from his fantasy baseball statistical belt, it made it more imperative that Correa continue to hit for big power and post swell counting numbers in RBI and runs. While Correa overall remained solid on those categories, he was not great either.

Fast forward to there last two seasons and of course we have the whole trash can banging scandal that has marred the Astros since the start of the 2020 season. With the Astros having been exposed as knowing ahead of time what pitches were coming at a high rate, it immediately called into question all of the offensive numbers Correa and his teammates put forth during the pre-2000 campaigns. Thus, when Correa then went out and batted just .264 with all of 5 home runs in 58 games last season, it made one wonder just how much the scandal helped prop up the numbers in the first place.

In essence this is the situation facing all prospective owners of Correa for 2021. Not only has he completely lost his stolen base game which is no small thing but now he suddenly is struggling to hit and hit for power which brings us back to how much the scandal helped him. Given that shortstop is incredibly deep this season, it stands to reason that Correa is simply not worth the trouble this season. Remember too that the reason we all lusted after him in the first place was because of the power/speed game and that aspect has been gone for a few seasons now. So add it all together and Correa really is not worth the stress of owning this season unless he came dirt cheap and even then he still appears to be a shaky investment in this peanut stand's opinion.

2021 PROJECTION: .263 14 HR 65 RBI 67 R 2 SB

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL SECOND BASEMAN RANKINGS: A FIRST LOOK

2021-01-29T13:16:00.003-08:00

The second baseman are up as we continue with our first look at the 2021 fantasy baseball position rankings:

1. Ozzie Albies

2. DJ LeMahieu

3. Ketel Marte

4. Jose Altuve

5. Cavan Biggio

6. Keston Hiura

7. Brandon Lowe

8. Jake Croneworth

9. Kolten Wong

10. Mike Moustakas

11. Jonathan Villar

12. Jon Berti

13. Cesar Hernandez

14. Nick Madrigal

15. Jean Segura

16. Hanser Alberto

17. Gavin Lux

18. Adam Frazier

19. Luis Arraez

20. Tommy LaStella

21. Ryan McMahon

22. Starlin Castro

23. Rougned Odor

24. Scott Kingery

25. Donovan Solano

26. Luis Garcia

2021 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: KRIS BRYANT 3B CHICAGO CUBS

2021-01-29T08:39:00.005-08:00

How quickly things change in the fantasy baseball world. It seems like just yesterday that we are all fighting over one another to get any shares we could of Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and that goes back to even before he played his first game in the majors. The number two pick of the 2013 draft, Bryant was blessed with supreme power and speed to go with a bat tailor-made to hit .300 on a yearly basis. That potential began to flow out all over the place once Bryant did in fact debut in 2015 and by the very next season, was hitting .292 with 39 homers, 121 runs scored, 102 RBI, and 8 steals to stamp himself a top five fantasy baseball monster.

Fast forward to present day and not only is Bryant unhappy and wanting out of Chicago, he has now put forth two ugly seasons out of the last three; which include 2020 when batted a career-worst .206 with all of 4 homers and zero steals in 34 games. Ill health has been a theme during that three-year span for Bryant which no doubt has contributed to the numbers dip but an uptick in strikeouts has also been a cause. Add in the personal distractions he is causing himself for wanting out of Chicago and Bryant has the least amount of fantasy baseball pop going into a season than ever before.

Before we proceed further, let's all take a collective big breath. It needs to be said that Bryant is still only 29 and that in the last full non-COVID MLB season, he swatted 31 home runs with 108 runs scored, 77 RBI, and a .282 average. Now the steals are likely almost gone for good as he has in fact reached an age where speed declines (just 6 total swiped the last three seasons) but this is just a tiny quibble. Instead, focus in on the fact Bryant's power is just fine and he remains fully capable of posting a useful batting average over .280 as well. Ultimately, Bryant may still feel some stress given his pending free agency and the solid possibility he will be on the move but that could be a good thing if he ends up in a hitting paradise like in New York with the Yankees or Toronto.

All in all, Kris Bryant actually presents good value for 2021 fantasy baseball whose rough 2021 campaign will lessen the hype to the point he could be a steal. There is some "search for the next big thing" with Bryant now that he has moved past the prospect stage but again this is a proven power-hitter who can help in four categories while remaining in his prime.

2021 PROJECTION: .281 28 HR 79 RBI 95 R 4 SB