Fantasy Sports Boss

FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: A.J. BURNETT HEADED TO PITTSBURGH "ANY DAY NOW"

2012-02-15T08:26:00.000-08:00

According to various reports, the Yankees will ship struggling SP AJ Burnett to the Pittsburgh Pirates "any day now" as quoted by someone in the loop. The two teams have exchanged proposals on a trade for the last week with the hang up being how much money the Yankees are willing to absorb. The Angels and Indians have also checked in on Burnett. If the Yankees do get a trade done, the money they save will be used on outfielder Raul Ibanez.

Analysis: Burnett could actually reclaim some value in the National League due to the escape clauses at the bottom on lineups in the league. Still he is a very volatile pitcher to own in fantasy baseball and really is only for those in deep leagues. Ibanez on the other hand would be attractive as a fourth or fifth outfielder in leagues with 5 starters at the position due to the pop that he stiil has in the launching pad that is the Yankees' home park.

FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: METS TO WATCH SCOTT KAZMIR THROW

2012-02-15T08:22:00.000-08:00

The New York Mets will be among the teans scheduled to watch former prized power-pitching lefty Scott Kazmir throw on Wednesday in Houston. Kazmir has been a train-wreck the last two seasons as injuries and decreased velocity have destroyed his value. He is trying to make a comeback at the still young age of 28. The Mets originally drafted Kazmir and than traded him in a very criticized deal for SP Victor Zambrano who was an utter failure in NY,

Analysis: They say things come full circle and if the Mets sign Kazmir than that will be true in this case. Either way Kazmir has a long road back to even mediocre status and he has zero value in fantasy baseball this season until he proves otherwise.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL UPDATED THIRD BASEMAN RANKINGS

2012-02-15T06:18:00.000-08:00

Its been awhile since we checked in with the third position with regards to the 2012 rankings. This position is lookign deeper than usual with the arrival of Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera to add some serious star power to the spot but there are also some major injury risks here as well. Let's see where they currently sit.

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Jose Bautista

3. Evan Longoria

4. Hanley Ramirez

5. Adrian Beltre

6. David Wright

7. Ryan Zimmerman

8. Alex Rodriguez

9. Brett Lawrie (+1)

10. Aramis Ramirez (-1)

11. Kevin Youkilis

12. Pablo Sandoval

13. Michael Young

14. Mark Reynolds

15. Jhonny Peralta

16. David Freese

17. Ryan Roberts (+1)

18. Mike Moustakas (+3)

19. Pedro Alvarez (-2)
19. Lonni Chisenhall (-1)

20. Chipper Jones (-1)

-Three of the biggest question marks come from this position in the form of David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Alex Rodriguez. All are due to major injury issues from last season and the concern remains for 2012 as well. In my opinion, I would stay far away from AROD who is leaking stats everywhere, is turning 36, and can't stay on the field. This is a losing stock all the way and his name value will inflate his draft spot much earlier than it should be. As far as Wright, I am bullish on him due to the fact the Mets will be bringing down the outfield walls but tje fractured back from last season is scary. Back problems have a tendency to linger and one has to wonder how much running Wright will do as well. His increasing K rate the last three seasons has me concerned as well but he still is only 30 years old and has a few big years left. Finally Zimmerman is the youngest of the bunch at 28 but he is incredibly injury-prone which ruins his bottom line. I like him as well but Wright would be the one I would pick from this trio.
-Mike Moustakas is a real sleeper due to the fact he started to figure things out in September last season. He has immense power and could suply nice value this season due to the fact he will be a late round pick.
-You should be a but worried about the fact that Pablo Sandoval put on weight again. We all remember how bad he was with extra girth two seasons ago and its something to pay attention to this spring.
-I love Brett Lawrie and think he has all the potential in the world but don't go too overboard in reaching for him. He is still quite young and has to prove himself over the entire season. A tremendous keeper however.

There you have it. As always leave your thoughts below.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: BRANDON BEACHY SP

2012-02-14T06:10:00.000-08:00

Brandon Beachy has now graduated from being a 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper to his own 2012 Player Analyzer. The much better than people give him credit for debut season placed Beachy squarely on the "one to own" list in my opinion for the upcoming season and his power arsenal and high K rate will serve to develop him into an ace in short order. So lets dig in and revisit his rookie season along with forecasting what could be in store for 2012.

Heading into the 2011 season, Beachy was battling fellow fireballing minor leaguer Mike Minor for the Atlanta Braves' fifth starter's spot and after clearly outperforming him during the Grapefruit League schedule, broke camp with the club. Right from the beginning Beachy proved that the Braves made the right decision as he began to rack up the strikeouts along with putting up a very low hit rate. Altogether Beachy struck out a very impressive 169 batters in only 141.2 IP along with surrendering only 125 hits. His innings were limited due to injuries but both hit hit and K rate were at ace-levels despite the smallish sample size. Extrapolate those rates over 200 innings and you are looking at a 220 strikeout pitcher at the ripe old age of 25.

As impressive as Beachy's power game was last season, his overall line wasn't perfect due to the fact that Beachy had a high walk rate which is not uncommon in young pitchers, especially those with the explosive stuff that Beachy has. Having 46 walks in those 141.2 IP is a very high number but Beachy figures to improve on that as he continues to mature. He also had trouble pitching deep into games due to his overall poor pitch efficiency which cost him some wins. Just keep in mind however a certain ace starter by the name of Clayton Kershaw who had a similarly explosive pitching repertoire but who was hurt by walks early on. Kershaw finally curbed the walks in 2011 and the result was a Cy Young Award. Now I am not suggesting by any means that Beachy will challenge for the Cy this season but a big season is very much within his reach at a very nice draft price. The injuries that Beachy suffered through last season could actually help you secure his services this season in that it muted his overall bottom line and thus will keep him out of the front line plans of fantasy baseball owners.

All in all, I love Brandon Beachy's outlook for the 2012 season. If he can stay in one piece, he will hit the 200 strikeout mark which is the Holy Grail level for ace starters. He will likely have his inning capped at around 175 which is a bit of a drag but again we are talking about a guy whose draft price will be very nice. Go get him.

2012 PROJECTION: 14-7 3.38 ERA 1.20 WHIP 202 K

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2012 FANTASY BASEBALL WELCOME TO THE SHOW: YOENIS CESPEDES OUTFIELDER OAKLAND A'S

2012-02-13T16:46:00.000-08:00

The big news on Tuesday was the out of leftfield revelation that the Oakland A's of all teams ponied up $36 million dollars to free agent Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The 26-year-old multi-talented import has a ton of intrigue attached to him and no one truly knows what kind of impact he will have long term and even for the 2012 season. So with the signing fresh in our minds, lets dig in a bit more and try to figure out what in fact Cespedes will contribute to those owners who take a shot with him this spring in their draft.

First of all as we have discovered in the past, its entirely possible that Cespedes is older than his listed 26 years old. While he looks young enough and his age shouldn't be much of a factor in 2012, those in keeper formats have to take this in consideration when evaluating whether or not he is a good long-term option. Now as far as his skill set is concerned, more than a few respected talent evaluators have suggested that he is at a Double-A level right now which is a jarring statement in regards to how much money he just got from the A's to play at a decent level right off the bat. That right there should give you pause when it comes to drafting him for the 2012 season. There figures to be a great deal of growing pains for the guy and so this season could be one full of struggles as he finds himself against major league pitching. However no matter the competition he did it against, Cespedes put up some ridiculously good numbers for his Cuban team last season with a .333 average and 33 home runs. Clearly there is a nice batch of power in his bat which is something you can't teach. Cespedes is also fleet of foot which means he can take some steals along the way as well. His .143 average in a short Domincan Winter League stint though muted some of the excitement attached to his name and that's the appearance that drew the scorn of the talent evaluators who said he was at a Double-A level. When you also factor in that Oakland's stadium is one of the worst for hitters in the game, than you can see just how much of a risk the guy is in the first place altogether.

All in all, I think Yoenis Cespedes is not worth the hassle for the 2012 season. Sure he could shock and put up a big time season but that is very unlikely. There is just too much to be concerned with to make him anything more than a speculative add but his name value already is going to exceed where he should be drafted. That my friends is a negative draft choice waiting to happen so do yourself a favor and pick someone else who is much more dependable.

2012 PROJECTION: .262 15 HR 63 RBI 71 R 10 SB

FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: A'S SIGN FREE AGENT CUBAN IMPORT YOENIS CESPEDED TO FOUR-YEAR/$36 MILLION

2012-02-13T10:39:00.000-08:00

The Oakland A's came out of nowhere on Monday and signed free agent Cuban import Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year contract for $36 million dollars. Cespedes will start from day 1 for Oakland who surprisingly came up with the cash to bring him aboard.

Analysis: No doubt this was a surprise that he ended up with the A's but despite the hype Cespedes is anything but a sure thing when it comes to fantasy baseball. He is already 26 years old and despite having power and speed, many personnel execs compare him to a Double-A prospect.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT DEBATE: JIMMY ROLLINS/ASDRUBAL CABRERA SS

2012-02-13T04:52:00.000-08:00

Been a few days since we had our last 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Debate and so lets get right to it as we delve into the always volatile shortstop world. The top four are pretty well established this season in the form of Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Starlin Castro as they should be. However it is after this foursome where things get a bit murky with both Jimmy Rollins of the Philadelphia Phillies and Asdrubal Cabrera of the Cleveland Indians coming off the board next within a round of one another. As usual, we will compare the two in all five relevant 5 x 5 hitting categories in order to determine who really should be selected ahead of the other. Lets get to it.

RUNS: Both guys scored 87 runs last season but Rollins hitting leadoff gives him the slight advantage due to the extra at-bats he will accrue if he stays on the field this season.
ADVANTAGE: Jimmy Rollins

AVERAGE: Rollins has become a major liability in this category with averages of .250, .243, and .268 the last three seasons. Age clearly is taking a toll there while Cabrera has had marks of .273, .276, and .308 the last three seasons. Cabrera has the ability to hit .280 at least while Rollins has no shot of getting back to that area.
ADVANTAGE: Asdrubal Cabrera

HOME RUNS: Cabrera rocked 25 long balls last season which many consider to be a fluke. It was anything but as his advanced stats all checked out and he was just hitting his power prime at the age of 26. Even if he drops off to 20 this season, Rollins hit 16 in almost 600 at-bats last season.
ADVANTAGE: Asdrubal Cabrera

STOLEN BASES: Despite getting up there in age, Rollins still swiped 30 bases last season which dwarfed Cabrera's 17. While he is adept at stealing bases, this is Cabrera's main strong while a bunch of Rollins' value comes from that ability.
ADVANTAGE: Jimmy Rollins

RBI: With Rollins hitting leadoff, this one is all Cabrera again as he went for 92 hitting in the number 2 and 3 spot. Rollins has generally been in the 60-70 range at leadoff in his career and so this one is not close.
ADVANTAGE: Asdrubal Cabrera

WINNER: Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is the right choice for drafts this season over Rollins and its not as closer as it looks. If we had to go to the INTANGIBLES category which is done to break ties, Cabrera would have won that as well since Rollins is now an older player who has spent a bunch of time on the DL the last two seasons. Cabrera is flat in his prime and will have more than a few top seasons left to go while Rollins is surely on the way down as far as his stats.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT BUST: CURTIS GRANDERSON OUTFIELDER NEW YORK YANKEES

2012-02-12T11:01:00.000-08:00

Now first allow me to explain why I have Curtis Granderson listed as a draft bust before you all fill up my Inbox with nasty messages and e-mails about how I have lost my fantasy baseball mind. There is no debating the fact that Granderson was a man among boys last season in hitting 41 home runs with 119 RBI, 136 runs, and 25 stolen bases with a .262 average. It was a fantasy baseball MVP-worthy season and the for the fact that Granderson was drafted around the 8th round the previous spring, it made him quite possibly the best overall value in the game from a draft perspective. As we enter the 2012 drafting season however, we are seeing the complete opposite of this as Granderson is now being drafted on average in the beginning of the second round which is a major spike indeed. Yes the numbers say that he deserves that lofty perch but there is trouble there as well which I will get into. Combined together, this all makes Granderson what I feel to be a fantasy baseball bust candidate for the 2012 season. Lets dig in and find out some more.

As always, the first thing I do when evaluating a player in trying to determine which direction he will go in for the next season is to take a peek at his advanced stats. It is here where you will find some disturbing issues with Granderson when looking at his superb 2011 numbers. The biggest thing that stands out is Granderson's HR/Fly Ball percentage which was 20.9 last season. That was waaayyyy higher than his career 13.9 mark which means what he did last season in terms of power is not sustainable. The trends don't lie when it comes to this and even taking into account the launching pad that is Yankee Stadium, a run at another 40 is almost out of the question. Will he hit 30? I think that's a very safe bet but anything more than 35 and you are wishing upon a star.

Granderson also hit .260 last season with all those other stats and so the average is going to be a drag and clearly separates him from the other do-it-all outfielders like Ellsbury, Kemp, and CarGo. The fact that he will be another year older at 31 also means that his speed is likely to be impacted soon as well. The 25 steals was a major spike from the 12 he had the year before but the Yankees like to run so he could get 20 this season. Again we are not talking a drastic drop but enough to call into questions his draft position which is the reason we are calling him a bust anyway.

As far as the rest of the numbers are concerned, Granderson figures to easily score more than 100 runs while hitting primarily in the two-hole and another 100-plus RBI is likely as well. With the loss of some home runs and the major outlier of his 136 RBI from last season, Granderson can reasonably be expected to spike at around the 110. Still very good but not early second round good.

All in all, I think Curtis Granderson is one of the finest fantasy baseball outfielders for the 2012 season but his high draft price tag is a bit too much for me. His average will be a liability and he stands to lose quite a bit of his overall stats this season compared to last so you will be paying for numbers from 2011 and not 2012 which is a losing proposition. Go with somebody safer at that spot and pick up someone like a Matt Holliday or a Andrew McCutchen in the third or fourth round.

2012 PROJECTION: .263 34 HR 111 RBI 115 R 22 SB

FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: BRAVES SP TOMMY HANSON TO UNVEIL NEW PITCHING MOTION

2012-02-12T03:50:00.000-08:00

After dealing with shoulder troubles for most of last season, Atlanta Braves ace SP Tommy Hanson will debut a new pitching motion this season that puts less stress on his elbow and shoulder. Hanson used to display a hitch in his delivery that added stress to the shoulder area as seen by the issues he had last season but his new delivery will be more over the top and smooth which will minimize impact in the area. He is expected to take part in all spring training acitivites from the start of camp.

Analysis: Great news as Hanson was one of the bigger injury risks going into the season with his shoulder. Old habits die hard so I won't totally sign of yet on drafting Hanson this season despite all the talent he has. The risk is still there but things are headed in the right direction.

FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: A.J. BURNETT LIKELY HEADED TO THE PIRATES

2012-02-12T03:45:00.000-08:00

New York Yankees SP AJ Burnett is likely headed to the Pittsburgh Pirates via a trade as soon as the the teams work out how much money each will absorb. With New York having signed Hiroki Kuroda and traded for Michael Pineda, there is no room in the rotation for the underachieving Burnett who has had ERA's over 5.00 the last two seasons. The Pirates have been rumored to be offering OF/1B Garrett Jones in return.

Analysis: This move would not do much for fantasy baseball purposes other than those in NL-only or very deep formats. Burnett would see a bit of an increase in value going from New York to Pittsburgh but he is such a mess mechanically that he is not worth the trouble.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL TEAM REPORT: DETROIT TIGERS

2012-02-11T13:35:00.000-08:00

We are almost through the AL Central as we continue our look through each and every team from a fantasy baseball perspective. So without further delay, let's take a look at the pressing issue that will center on the Detroit Tigers this season.

1. Prince Fielder can now afford to take out the entire city of Detroit for lunch after signing that monstrous free agent contract. In going from the more hitter-friendly Milwaukee Miller Park to the more spacious Comerica, will his power numbers be affected enough to impact his value? There is no doubt that hitting home runs in Comerica Park is much tougher than in where Fielder spent the previous portion of his career but don't overvalue the loss of 2-3 home runs in evaluating Fielder's overall fantasy baseball value this season. This is a guy who is the rare power hitter than can hit close to 40 home runs with an average of .290 or better. He will also threaten the 120 RBI mark hitting behind Miguel Cabrera. After the big four of Pujols, Gonzalez, Votto, and Cabrera are off the board, Fielder has to be the next 1B selected at the end of round 1.

2. With Fielder's arrival, Miguel Cabrera moves over to third base which adds additional eligibility to his already MVP-worth bat. Number 1 player overall? You better believe it. Move over Mr. Pujols because Cabrera is now the number 1 fantasy baseball player in the game due to the added eligibility. Cabrera is flat in his prime at 29 years old and is one of the most durable and dependable hitters to forecast. Put down .320 with 30-35 home runs and 110-120 RBI with 100 runs scored and that what Cabrera will give you for the next five seasons or so. If you can play him at the more shallow third base spot, than by all means do so. It doesn't get any better than this.

3. Justin Verlander was truly ridiculous in 2011 by going 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts. The line for starting pitchers starts behind him correct? No absolutely not and I will explain why. As great as Verlander was last season, he has nowhere else to go but down. He also threw over 270 innings last season in getting the Tigers to the ALCS and that kind of workload typically impacts a pitcher's performance the next season in a negative way. Verlander has a history of elbow trouble so there is that to worry about and Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw both make safer investments. The second round pick it will take to get Verlander is high considering the risk of regression and injury.

4. How legit was Alex Avila at catcher last season? There is no debating Avila's power as he showed decent pop in the minor leagues and in the brief major league looks he got before last season. The 19 home runs he it last season thus are legit and hitting the 20 level is entirely possible in 2012. However the .295 average he put up in 2011 is not sustainable as Avila had one of the luckiest BABIP's in the league last season and he was a guy who struggled to hit better than .270 while on the farm. Look for a drop in the average department but the power is here to stay. Don't overdraft him based on last season's stat haul.

5. Jose Valverde was perfect in saves last season. The rare safe closer pick right? There is no such thing as a safe closer pick unless your name is Mariano Rivera. Just ask Brian Wilson or Joakim Soria owners last season. Anyways Valverde was very good on the surface last season but underneath there were some troubling signs such as a spiked walk rate and a drop in his K rate. Those are two bad trends which is worrisome for a guy who is starting to age. The ballpark helps him get by when he doesn't have his best stuff but like with Verlander, the Tigers closer has nowhere to go but down. I stand by my assertion to wait on drafting big name closers and instead pick up undervalued talented guys like Jordan Waldem Jason Motte, and Sergio Santos.

6. Will Max Scherzer ever put things together and give us that big breakthrough season? Scherzer has been a maddening pitcher to own the last few seasons as the allure of a high K rate gets smudged by walks and an inability to pitch deep into games. He also has had some injury concerns due to a wonky delivery so there is volatility there. Still Scherzer got unlucky with his BABIP last season and his advanced stats are trending in the right direction. I would give him one more chance, especially for this season since his draft price will be a lot cheaper than it was the season before.

7. Anything else worth looking into on this team? Jhonny Peralta has been a very solid SS/3B option the last two seasons with 20 home runs and a .299 average last season. While the average was inflated by a lucky BABIP, Peralta is in a nice spot hitting behind the Cabrera-Fielder combo and will get great pitches to hit. A solid option at either position but shortstop is where he has his best value. Austin Jackson is a flawed player who is really only for those in five outfielder formats. His high K rate and poor on-base percentage ruin his runs and steals totals while destroying his batting average. Delmon Young remains a tease that is not to owned unless he it hot. Ryan Raburn gets hot in the second half which is the best thing I can say about him. Finally Doug Fister was a very good pitcher for the Tigers last season and he clearly knows how to pitch well in big parks. His lack of K stuff though makes him only for those who play in AL-only formats or deeper leagues. He doesn't have the upside needed for mixers due to the lack of strikeouts this season.

There you have it. As always let me know what you think.

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2012 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: ANDREW MCCUTCHEN OUTFIELDER PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2012-02-11T05:16:00.000-08:00

Everyone who plays fantasy baseball has "THEIR" player. You know guys that you tend to hype up or favor more than other owners. For me that is the clear case with Pittsburgh Pirates multi-talented outfielder Andrew McCutchen who has already in his young career firmly established himself as one of the best fantasy baseball players in the game. With blazing speed for stealing bases to go with burgeoning power, McCutchen's overall category contributions make him the kind of player we all fight over each spring during drafts. The 2011 season saw more growth out of McCutchen as he took his game to another level and with 2012 fast approaching, it is a great time to dig in and determine what he could provide owners who get their hands on his talented bat.

At only 26 years old for the upcoming season, McCutchen is just now entering into his prime hitting years and that includes the typical power spike that arrives with it. We began to see that power upswing in 2011 as McCutchen went from 16 to 23 home runs from the previous season in only two extra at-bats. He is not a slugger in the mold of a Jose Bautista by any means but McCutchen clearly has shown the ability to clear fences with regularity in the major leagues. How high will that ceiling go? My guess is a little bit higher to the tune of a round 25 for this season. Can he ever reach 30? I am not sure he can but its also not out of the realm of possibility either. Count on 25 for 2012 and anything more look at as a bonus. Along with the home runs, McCutchen should get a decent dose of steals hitting in the third spot in the order and he should get a few more than the 89 he got in 2011.

Of course the other side of McCutchen's game is what got him noticed in the first place and that's his steals. McCutchen has very good speed which has helped him swipe 22, 33, and 23 the last three seasons. Of course we are not talking about a 50-steal burner but 25 with the possibility of more is likely this season. Hitting in the third spot took a chunk of steals out of his game in 2011 and so it might be a reach to suggest he will go for 30 again but McCutchen is very capable of doing so if he gets the opportunities to do it. Another 90-runs whether he is hitting leadoff or third is a given in addition to the stolen bases.

The only aspect of McCutchen that worries some is his drastic dropoff in the second half of last season after being selected to his very first All Star Game. McCutchen hit only .216 after the Midsummer Classic as it appeared he tried to justify his inclusion in the game. Either way I don't consider it anything to worry about. Slumps happen and McCutchen is still young enough that some growing pains were to be expected. The guy has so much natural talent and ability that he will be just fine. Just keep in mind though he hits lefties better which means it could be tough for him to hit .300 unless he makes improvements there.

Put it all together and what you have is a five category producer who is capable of being an outfielder 1 in 2012 fantasy baseball. Guys like this are the bedrock of the game in that its great to get so many numbers across so many stat categories. Draft McCutchen with confidence and enjoy the remaining ceiling he has in his game. He will be worth the effort to get him in the first place.

2012 PROJECTION: .285 25 HR 92 RBI 90 R 28 SB

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BE SURE TO PICK UP ALL OF YOUR 2012 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT GUIDES

2012-02-10T16:21:00.000-08:00

With drafting season close to being underway, be sure to head on over to the Fantasy Sports Boss Shopping Center page which can be found here: http://www.thefantasysportsboss.com/p/purchase-2011-fantasy-baseball-draft.html

It is there where you will find all sorts of various 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides from manhy different companies. Use the BUY now tabs or the links to purchase the guides.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT SLEEPER/BUST: KENLEY JANSEN/JAVY GUERRA RP LOS ANGELES DODGERS

2012-02-10T11:01:00.000-08:00

First lets me start out by going out on a bit of a limb: Kenley Jansen will lead the Dodgers in saves this season and wind up being a top ten closer. Sometimes in this business you have to draw a line in the sand and make some direct predictions and that is the case here with the fireballing relief pitcher for Los Angeles. Heading into the 2012 season, the Dodgers are planning on using Javy Guerra as their closer right out of the gate due to the fact he pitched very well in the role during the second half of 2011. In fact Guerra was more than good as he put up a 2.31 ERA while converting 21 saves in 23 tries. No doubt an impressive performance but like I said earlier, I am ready to draw a line in the sand and also declare that Guerra will be a fantasy baseball bust in 2012 as the flip side of calling Jansen a sleeper. So in a first dual sleeper/bust post, lets dig in a bit deeper and find out why I think each man qualifies for their respective title.

The most obvious statement to make when it comes to Jansen is that he has the classic look of the modern day closer what with his near 100-mph fastball and off the charts strikeout rate. In fact Jansen struck out an unfathomable 96 batters in only 53.2 IP last season which came out to a 16.0 K/9 IP which was even better than the Atlanta Braves' Craig Kimbrel. We are talking 125-plus strikeouts with a full season under his belt in 2012 which would be more than some starting pitchers. Jansen also pitched to a minuscule 2.85 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP which was even more impressive when you consider that he was struggling a bit in the first half of 2011. Jansen was just about unhittable the second half of the season and clearly would have been the closer if he was not dealing with some injuries and for the fact that Guerra was doing so well. Jansen is a pure gem of a pitcher whose natural power repertoire will make him one of the best closers if the game when he gets the gig this season at some point.

The other side of this coin is Guerra who no doubt had a nice and surprising 2011 season but who is looking like prime bust material as I will get into in the next few lines of this post. Guerra was a guy whose strikeout rate in his minor league career was not much over the 7.00/9 IP range which is not what you want out of your closer. Another issue is the fact that Guerra walked 18 batters in his 46.2 IP last season which is asking for trouble, especially in the last frame of a game. Sure Jansen could be wild on occasion himself but he has the extreme ability to get himself out of his own jams via the strikeout which is not something that Guerra is blessed with. When Guerra starts to walk batters this season, the blown saves will follow, especially when you also consider he had a lucky strand rate as well. Put it all together and we could be looking at the next Derrick Turnbow who flamed out badly the season after he put up a similarly shocking and out of nowhere closing campaign.

All in all, I think Kenley Jansen is a tremendous sleeper candidate for the upcoming fantasy baseball season as he has the goods to become a top notch closer real quick and sooner than you think. Guerra is not a trustworthy closer by any means as he doesn't have the same natural talent that Jansen has and so if you had to choose one guy from the Dodgers as the better option for saves this season, make it be the fireballer as your pick.

2012 PROJECTION:

Kenley Jansen: 2.17 ERA 1.07 WHIP 115 K 27 S
Javy Guerra: 3.71 ERA 1.20 WHIP 45 K 11 S

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL UPDATED FIRST BASEMAN RANKINGS

2012-02-10T04:45:00.000-08:00

Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues are finally open and drafts are coming fast. Let's take a look at the updated first baseman rankings.

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Albert Pujols

3. Joey Votto

4. Adrian Gonzalez

5. Prince Fielder

6. Mark Texeira

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Paul Konerko (+1)

9. Ryan Howard (-1)

10. Mike Morse

11. Billy Butler

12. Ike Davis

13. Freddie Freeman (+1)

14. Justin Morneau (-1)

15. Gaby Sanchez

16. Mitch Morelan (+4)

17. Brandon Belt (-1)

18. Mark Trumbo

19. Adam Dunn (-2)

20. Kendrys Morales

-Mitch Morelan gets himself into the top 20 due to the news that offseason surgery went well and he is completely cleared to have a full spring training. I discussed why I thought Moreland made for a solid fantasy baseball sleeper this season which you can see here: http://www.thefantasysportsboss.com/2012/02/2012-fantasy-baseball-draft-sleeper_09.html
-Again Justin Morneau and Adam Dunn are two aging vets whose best days are way behind them. Don't let the name value fool you into making a dumb decision to bring either one onto your roster.
-Continue to keep an ever on the Angels' situation with Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo angling for the DH spot. Trumbo is supposed to take grounders at third in the spring in an effort to get all three bats in to the lineup which is interesting. If it doesn't go good however, Trumbo will be on the bench.

There you have it. As always I would love to hear what you think.

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2012 FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: CARDS SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT TO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN SPRING TRAINING

2012-02-10T04:34:00.000-08:00

St. Louis Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright, who is recovering from last March's Tommy John surgery, will have no restrictions during spring training. Wainwright is completely all the way back from the surgery and both he and the team plan on him being ready for Opening Day.

Analysis: Great news and Wainwright makes for a very good fantasy baseball SP this season due to the fact he will come much cheaper than usual due to the surgery. Pitchers coming back from TJ have had mixed results but last season both Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Starsburg pitched great in their first seasons back so don't worry too much.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT SLEEPER: MITCH MORELAND 1B TEXAS RANGERS

2012-02-09T10:13:00.000-08:00

When a player ends up on the Draft Sleeper list for the second season in a row, you can take it one of two ways. Either the player failed to fulfill expectations the prior season due to simply being a young player adjusting to life as a big leaguer or injuries ruined the year altogether. You can say that both of these issues affected Texas Rangers 1B Mitch Moreland who was given his first full gig in 2011 and despite some early optimism, he failed to put up the type of season many fantasy baseball owners expected as injuries and the league adjusting to his approach combined to depress his overall line. However Moreland retains sleeper status for 2012 in my opinion and is someone who can supply some big time value if everything turns out right. Lets dig right in and find out what Moreland can do in 2012 fantasy baseball this season.
Overall, Moreland hit .259 with 16 home runs and 51 RBI with 60 runs scored. It was a tale of two halves though as Moreland hit .272 with 11 homers in the first half and than only .241 with 5 homers in the second half. As I said earlier, Moreland dealt with injuries during the second half of the season which is partially responsible for the slide and the other problem was that the patient batting approach that Moreland had in the minors and in the first half of the season betrayed him as his K rate spiked and he began to hack away. At only 25 years old, it was understandable that Moreland was anything but a finished product so keep that in mind when you think about casting him aside as a result of last season's struggles. When Moreland is right at the plate, his piles up walks and waits for his pitch which helps him keep a decent average. We are not talking .300 since Moreland strikes out to much but something along the lines of around .280 is very possible.

As far as the rest of Moreland's game is concerned, power hitting is his best attribute as the home runs he hit last season ended up in the top five in all of baseball as far as the average distance they traveled. Hence its clear to see that Moreland can put balls over the walls with the best of them when it comes to pure strength and playing in the launching pad that is Texas make him doubly intriguing this season. The plan at the moment is for Moreland to start every day at first base and he likely will bat sixth or seventh in the lineup depending on whether or not Josh Hamilton will be ready for Opening Day. The RBI opportunities will be there in bunches and if Moreland can rediscover his previously skillful batting approach, than its not out of the realm of possibility to see a line of around .280 with 25 home runs and 80-plus RBI. That's perfect UTIL or CI numbers which can be helpful in all leagues.

All in all, I think Mitch Moreland is one of those guys who is close to figuring things out and could be on the verge of putting up an impressive fantasy baseball season. We all saw how Mike Morse suddenly put everything in place and put up a 30-homer season out nowhere in 2011 and although its a stretch to say Moreland will reach that level in 2012, its not entirely unrealistic either. Again guys like this who have ceiling to tap into need to be taken advantage of and so he makes for a very good late pickup in drafts this spring.

2012 PROJECTION: .277 24 HR 83 RBI 75 R 2 SB

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL TEAM REPORT: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

2012-02-09T03:59:00.000-08:00

The Chicago White Sox are up next as we continue to tour through each and every team and take a look at their main issues when it comes to 2012 fantasy baseball. Lets dig in and find out what they have in store for us.

1. Paul Konerko continues to be one of the most underappreciated players in all of fantasy baseball as he continues to churn out big season into his mid-30's. How likely is it that the inevitable decline will show up during 2012? Konerko is one of my all-time favorite fantasy baseball players as he almost always turned a profit for his owners. The fact he continues to hit for big time power with a good average as he turns 36 years old is impressive to say the least. However Kornerko is considered "old" and he only scored 69 runs last season which makes him just average in that respect. He will still hit for very good power but the average could slip some as well. The thing that is interesting though is that most owners will be leery of him due to his age in 2012 and so that could actually yield good draft value again.

2. Adam Dunn was the absolute worst player in the game last season as he hit a pathetic .159 with only 11 home runs. Now what? It was beyond terrible how Dunn performed and obviously he can't get any worse. He suffered from poor luck in the BABIP department which means the average will come back up but the power outage was the biggest mystery. Becoming a full-time DH for the first time in his career surely messed up Dunn's mind but this is an aging slugger who shouldn't be touched by any means this season. In fact even if Dunn were sitting there in the last round of my draft, I wouldn't bite. His average is disgusting and he will be more of a liability than a help.

3. Alex Rios gave Dunn a run for his money in the pathetic department last season but you are a bit more optimistic about him aren't you? Yes I am and I am totally prepared to pick up Rios cheap as a great value play this season. Rios suffered from one of the worst BABIP's in the entire game last season and so his average will come back drastically. He also had a very painful toe injury that messed up his entire spring and sapped his power since he couldn't push off. It was just two seasons ago where Rios stole 34 bases and hit 21 home runs and he is only 31 years old. This is a major buying opportunity folks.

4. Alexei Ramirez is about as boring a pick as you can get huh? Yeah Ramirez is pretty much what he is and that's a better than average shortstop who doesn't do anything great. He never did take that next step to stardom like many predicted after his impressive rookie season and you can pretty much write down a .280 average with around 15 home runs and 10 steals to go with somewhere in the realm of 80 runs and RBI. Not flashy but it is a useful line at the always shallow shortstop position.

5. Matt Thornton to close again? Really? Thornton has already been named the closer for the Sox despite being awful at the beginning of 2011 where he lost his job to Sergio Santos. Rookie Addison Reed is being groomed to take over the role however during the season and his explosive fastball is perfect for the gig. It wouldn't be the worst idea to make him a late round pick. As for Thornton, he has great stuff but he seems to be somewhat of a block when it comes to locking things down in the ninth inning.

6. Anything useful from the starting rotation? Not too much. Jake Peavy claims to be 100 percent healthy but that should last for all of four innings in 2012. Peavy is a decent late round flier due to his good K rate but don't expect a miracle return to his ace days. John Danks has proven to be a solid fourth or fifth starter in the past but he is like the pitching version of Ramirez. Finally Gavin Floyd can be owned in the second half when he typically does his best work.

There you have it. Let's hear what you think about the White Sox this season.

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2012 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT DEBATE: JERED WEAVER/C.C. SABBATHIA

2012-02-08T13:28:00.000-08:00

The other day I posted a poll question to all of you asking which starting pitcher you would draft over the other between C.C. Sabbathia, Jered Weaver, and Cole Hamels who are all ranked right after one another in most cheat sheets. So far Sabbathia and Weaver have distanced themselves from Hamels and so in our latest Draft Debate, we take a closer look at the two and compare them in all four of the relevant ROTO starting pitcher ROTO 5 x 5 categories along with intangibles to determine who in fact should be selected ahead of the other.

WINS: Weaver won 18 games to Sabbathia's 19 in 2011. However the last three seasons Sabbathia has 69 wins to Weaver's 47. Sabbathia has much better run support than does Weaver and the fact he always pitches deep into games gives him the edge.
ADVANTAGE: C.C. Sabbathia

ERA: Weaver has been a monster in ERA the last two seasons with 3.01 and 2.41 marks to Sabbathia's 3.18 and 3.00. The issue here is the fact that Weaver has had some very lucky BABIP's in each of those two seasons and his adjusted ERA goes higher than what we have seen from Sabbathia in 2010 and 2011. Too close to call.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN

WHIP: This one is all Weaver as he has put up 1.07 and 1.01 marks the last two seasons to Sabbathia's 1.19 and 1.23. Sabbathia has gotten a bit more hittable as he hits his thirties and so Weaver gets the nod in this debate.
ADVANTAGE: Jered Weaver

STRIKEOUTS: Weaver saw a drop in his K rate last season as his tally went from 233 to 198. Sabbathia meanwhile hit the 230 mark last season and he has been right at or above the 200 mark for over five seasons. The fact that Weaver is a bit up and down in K's make Sabbathia the better and more stable option.
ADVANTAGE: C.C. Sabbathia

INTANGIBLES: The fact Weaver has had lucky BABIP's the last two seasons make it a possibility his ERA will spike to the lower to mid-3.00 range this season. The drop in K's also make him somewhat more unpredictable that Sabbathia who is about as easy to forecast as anyone. The Yankee southpaw has unparalleled durability as well which counts a bunch as starting pitchers tend to get injured more than any other position in the game.
ADVANTAGE: C.C. Sabbathia

WINNER: C.C. Sabbathia

Sabbathia takes it over Weaver and it wasn't as close as I thought it would be when breaking it down. So if this situation presents itself in your draft this spring, you will clearly know what you have to do with this.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL UPDATED OUTFIELDER RANKINGS

2012-02-08T03:47:00.000-08:00

We haven't checked in on the outfielder rankings in a bit so lets get right to it.

1. Matt Kemp
2. Jose Bautista

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

4. Carlos Gonzalez

5. Justin Upton

6. Ryan Braun

7. Curtis Granderson

8. Matt Holliday

9. Andrew McCutchen (+2)

10. Nelson Cruz (-1)

11. Josh Hamilton (-2)

12. Shin-Soo Choo

13. Hunter Pence (+3)

14. Mike Stanton

15. Desmond Jennings

16. B.J. Upton (-3)

17. Jay Bruce

18. Mike Morse

19. Lance Berkman

20. Shane Victorino

21. Alex Gordon

22. Adam Jones

23. Michael Bourn

24. Jayson Werth

25. Andre Ethier

26. Corey Hart

27. Carl Crawford

28. Brett Gardner

29. Logan Morrison

30. Chris Young

31. Nick Swisher

32. Ben Zobrist

33. Ichiro Suzuki

34. Jason Heyward

35. Alex Rios (+2)

36. Drew Stubbs (-1)

37. Carlos Beltran (-1)

38. Nick Markakis

39. Cameron Maybin

40. Jose Tabata

41. Brandon Belt

-The revelation that Josh Hamilton fell off the wagon drops him down a bit and rightfully so. We already know how big a risk he is as far as injuries but now we have to worry about this too. I strongly suggest you resist the urge to draft him this season.
-I undervalued Hunter Pence during the last set of rankings and I remedied that by moving him up a few spots and dropped B.J. Upton in reverse. Ultimately I would pick both Mike Stanton and Desmond Jennings over Upton if given the choice this spring.
-Andrew McCutchen gets a bump up as I think his second half struggles were a bit of an anomaly last season. His power is on the upswing and the steals will come back a bit as well so draft him as a low end OF 1 or high end OF 2.
-I still think that Alex Rios is a very good rebound candidate as he suffered from some very bad luck with his BABIP along with injuries. The power/speed combo is still there and his price is cheap as can be which means the value is nice.

There you have it. As always lets hear some of your thoughts.

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2012 FANTASY BASEBALL TEAM REPORT: KANSAS CITY ROYALS

2012-02-07T12:59:00.000-08:00

Believe it or not, the perpetually disappointing Kansas City Royals are now a hotbed full of some of the most exciting young names in fantasy baseball and no doubt owners will be falling all over themselves in order to get their hands on some of these players. Its a new era in the city and when it comes to finding fantasy baseball help when it comes to the Royals so in our latest team report, we dig in further in order to identify the main issues coming out from this club.

1. Alex Gordon finally made good on all that talent last season. It was legitimate correct? The answer is mostly yes. Gordon started off spring training last season as hot as anyone in baseball and he carried it over into the season to the tune of hitting ..303 with 23 home runs and 17 steals to go with 101 runs scored. In other words it was an all-around fabulous season for the previous bust that was Gordon. Looking at his overall like from 2011, the only thing that worries me some is the fact he dealt with some very good luck with his BABIP which means his average is going to fall some. His high K rate (139 strikeouts last season) will also help to drag down the average. The rest of the stats were all legitimate however as Gordon has nice power and speed and a 20/20 season is very likely in 2012 which makes him a good OF 2.

2. We already know how much you love Eric Hosmer. Remind me again though just for kicks? Yes I do love this kid and I can't even express to you how good he will be. When you see that he hit .293 with 19 home runs and 11 steals as a 21-year-old rookie in 2011, it becomes obvious how good he will be. Hosmer has a plate approach that is as good as it gets and the fact he can hit for power with a very good average and steal bases at a position where its a rarity make him one to own. I am fully prepared to reach for Hosmer this spring in drafts and a season of .315 with 25 home runs with 15 steals is very possible. The next Joey Votto could be even better than him before too long.

3. Many have stopped waiting for Billy Butler to finally have that big power season? Is this going to be the year? I have stopped predicting a power surge as well for Butler and he is not as appealing this season due to the fact he lost 1B eligibility in most leagues (only 11 starts there last season) and so having him clog up your team's UTIL spot is not ideal. However he did go on a power run the second half of last season and unbelievably, Butler is still only 26 years old which is usually the start of a player's power prime. You know the average will be .300 or better which is a nice help and 100 RBI is in the realm of possibility as well. So if Butler just adds a few more homers, you are looking at a very solid fantasy baseball hitter.

4. Mike Moustakas did next to nothing with Kansas City after tearing it up in the minors in 2011. Can he make himself relevant in 2012? Moustakas wouldn't be the first young hitter to come up and fall on his face (Alex Gordon, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, etc.) but third base is a lot deeper than usual this season with Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera now making the position go 12 deep. Moustakas was a power hitting machine last season but keep in mind it was in the PCL where you mom can hit 10 home runs. Overall though .263 with 5 home runs was not awful for Moustakas last season, especially when you see that he went on a run late by hitting .352 in September. If he did indeed start to feel comfortable in the majors at that time, than there is no question he could be a guy who could hit a very cheap 20 home runs. Just don't look for a decent average.

5. What was the deal with Joakim Soria last season and should I be wary of him going forward? Soria had a rough season in 2011 with Royals as he lost his job in May due to a string of blown saves and a 4.03 ERA. Something was up as Soria had his worst K rate ever and his velocity was down. However he got that K rate up the second half of the season and looked sharper. I would give Soria a mulligan on his 2011 campaign and enjoy the nice discount he will being this season.

6. The rotation has some potential to it? Who do you recommend? There are some useful pieces in the Royals rotation as Bruce Chen put up a shockingly good 2011 season with a 3.77 ERA but he is a strikeout liability and is only for deep leagues. Jonathan Sanchez comes aboard from San Francisco with his 200-K stuff but his WHIP is a big problem as his mechanics are all over the place. A move to the AL doesn't engender confident either. However Daniel Duffy is one to use a late round pick on despite the ugly numbers from his rookie season. Duffy was a guy who had some crazy strikeout stuff while in the minors with a K rate over 10.00. He also showed tremendous control which was the opposite of his performance last season. Chalk his struggles up to rookie jitters and get ready to enjoy what could be a nice breakout campaign.

7. Finally, Jeff Francoeur seemed to rise out from the dead last season with the quietest 20/20 season in history. Has he unearthed some secret strategy to fix his previously shaky bat? Francoeur certainly enjoyed life in less-pressurized Kansas City in 2011 with those 20 homers and 22 steals but he has bust written all over him this season. He still swings at everything and he got lucky with the BABIP in 2011 so the average will drop. Steals from Francoeur are tough to depend on as he never showed much there before. Remember Mark Reynolds a few years ago when he went on a mini-stolen base tear only to lose the stat the next season? That's what is looking like what should happen with Francoeur this season so let him go to someone else.

There you have it. As always let me know what you think.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: JUSTIN UPTON OUTFIELDER ARIZONA D-BACKS

2012-02-07T05:20:00.000-08:00

At the very end of the 2011 fantasy baseball season, it became clear that Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp were the top two outfielders as we started to look ahead to the 2012 campaign. Than Braun proceeded to get busted for steroids and Kemp was left at the top all by himself. With Yahoo leagues opening up today and drafts following shortly thereafter, owners are fixing up their outfield rankings as Braun takes a decent slide down the list. After Kemp goes off the board, one name that very well could follow closely behind (along with Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury) is none other than Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks who clearly is a superstar in waiting and who also could be sitting on a monster season. So in our latest Player Analyzer, we did in on Upton and study what he has accomplished so far and where he could be taking us this season.

Upton of course was the number 1 overall pick of the 2005 and at only 25 years old, has already played four seasons and a cup of coffee fifth in the major leagues. It became obvious really quick that Upton was going to be the real deal as his tremendous natural power was complemented by very good speed. He has his first bit time season at the age of 22 in 2009 as Upton hit 26 home runs with 20 steals while batting .300. His home run were a sight to see as the average length of the shots were the highest in baseball that season. That showed you how strong Upton was and early comparison to Ken Griffey Jr. were not off by much. The steals also showed off the speed and the fact he was aggressive in taking them. Guys who can hit for power and run are the holy grail when it comes to fantasy baseball so Upton instantly become a must have player at 22 years old.

Like with all young player however, there were some stumbles along the way, with a poor 2010 season stopping the Justin Upton Hall of Fame Train for just a bit. The league adjusted to Upton in 2010 as he hit only .273 with 17 home runs and 18 steals. Yes he dealt with some injuries but there were also some major red flags in his approach that needed work. The biggest was a very high K rate which had Upton striking out a truly ridiculous 152 times in only 495 at-bats that season. That kind of number will never allow any hitter to approach .300 without some luck (as Upton has with his BABIP in 2009 to hit that .300) and so he needed to get that fixed some in order to achieve his highest potential.

When the 2011 season arrived, Upton seemed to do just that as he drastically cut into his K rate to the tune of only 126 whiffs in 592 at-bats and a very solid .289 average followed. The two numbers clearly go hand-in-hand and more improvement in that area this season is expected which means Upton could get himself back near the .300 level as he continues to get better and develop as a player. It wasn't just the average that Upton improved on last season however as he cracked a career-high 31 home runs as his fly ball and home run rate shot up as well. This was complemented by 21 steals as Upton put up a near top ten fantasy baseball season.

As we go into the 2012 campaign, Justin Upton is one of the brightest hitters in the game who very well could be picked at the end of round 1. While I think that is slightly high (I see him early second round), there is no doubt that Upton has the potential to put up an MVP-type season in 2012 and firmly put himself in the Braun and Kemp discussion as the best outfielder in the game. His path has been the perfect arc to stardom and at 25 years old, it is easy to see that the best has yet to show itself. After crunching the numbers, its very possible that Upton could go 35/25 this season with a .300 average is all breaks right and even if he comes slightly below that projection, he still will be a beast. Be aggressive in adding this bat to your lineup this season as he will be nothing but a star for you.

2012 PROJECTION: .295 34 HR 98 RBI 104 R 22 SB

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: MIKE MORSE OUTFIELDER/1B WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2012-02-06T13:08:00.000-08:00

Spring training stats often are fool's gold as we have seen over and over again each season in fantasy baseball. Guys who get red hot with the bat during the games that don't count more often than not end up on the waiver wire a few weeks into the season as their play doesn't carry over when each contest counts. Look no further than Kila Ka'aihue last season as a guy who went on a power tear last spring and than turned to mush once the calendar turned to April. However sometimes the odd spring training superstar makes good on their promise as was the case with Washington Nationals outfielder/first baseman Mike Morse who swatted a ridiculous 12 home runs down in Florida and than proceeded to rip 31 more with 95 RBI and a .303 average in quite possibly the best valued fantasy baseball campaign of the season. As we head into the 2012 season, Morse is now looked at as a very solid outfielder 2 and will be a looked to supply more of the same kind of power numbers. So in our latest Player Analyzer, we dig a bit deeper into Mike Morse the player and find out if in fact his 2011 season was legit and if he can improve on it this season.

First off in the interest of disclosure, I am a huge Mike Morse fan and there is a lot of reason to feel this way. I was one of those fortunate owners who took a shot on him last season as I liked what I saw in his short 2010 tenure and his spring training outing was unreal. In fact his 2010 season is a great place to start as there were signs that year of what was to come. Morse hit a very impressive 15 home runs while batting .289 in only 266 at-bats that year which got the fantasy baseball radar blaring a bit on his name. Than when he exploded in 2011 spring training, it looked like we really had something on our hands with the guy. However it started to look like Morse was going to go the way of Ka'aihue as he was horrendous in April to the tune of a .224 average with 1 home run that month. Morse even lost his starter's role as he went into a timeshare in leftfield. However he quickly stabilized and went on an absolute tear the rest of the season to get to his 31 home runs with his .303 average. So with his background out of the way, lets take a look at Morse the player.

Going into the 2012 season, Morse is already 30 years old so he is somewhat of a late bloomer. Be that as it may, Morse's 2011 season was anything but a fluke after taking a close look at his advanced stats. Morse's BABIP was in neutral territory and his fly ball rate was in normal range for his career as well. Hence what you saw in 2011 is what you are going to see again in 2012 as he checked out across the board when looked at his stats through a sabermetric angle. Now as far as numbers going forward, Morse tends to strike out at a bit of a higher rate than normal so a .303 mark could be tough to duplicate but even if it drops some, it wont go far as I see Morse ending up in the .285-.290 range which is still very solid. The power however is much easier to predict as Morse can put balls out of any park. His home run total last season was so much more impressive when you consider he plays his home games in the spacious Washington ballpark. Another 30 homers could be slightly on the high side but at the very least he will be in the upper 20-range which is a very good tally to say the least in this pitching era. The RBI that will go along with the homers will bring Morse to the 90-plus range as well. The rest of his stat package is a bit weaker as Morse only managed 73 runs last season as he primarily hit out of the 4th and 5th spot in the lineups. Those spots usually produce somewhere in the low 80-range so Morse could see an increase there but he is also a complete washout with regards to his stealing bases game. Nothing to see in that respect.

All in all, I think Mike Morse is a very solid fantasy baseball investment for 2012 due to the very nice power and average combo. He actually is somewhat of a solid value as many owners are still not convinced what he did last season was legit and Washington hitters not names Ryan Zimmerman are not the most sought after commodities either. Morse could very easily put up a season similar and possibly even better than Matt Holliday for so much more of a cheaper price. Throw in the fact he has eligibility at both first base and the outfield and Morse is a very nice pick this spring in drafts.

2012 PROJECTION: .293 78 R 29 HR 97 RBI 2 SB

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FANTASY BASEBALL NEWS: ORIOLES TRADE SP JEREMY GUTHRIE TO THE ROCKIES TO SP JASON HAMMEL AND RP MATT LINDSTROM

2012-02-06T10:28:00.000-08:00

With spring training just a few days away, the Baltimore Orioles traded their best starting pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie to the Colorado Rockies for SP Jason Hammel and RP Matt Lindstrom. Guthrie was due for an arbitration hearing which was the impetus for the Orioles to make the trade.

Analysis: Not much to move the needle as far as fantasy baseball is concerned. Guthrie has had some nice season over the last five years but he is not to be owned in Colorado as a fly ball pitcher. Hammel meanwhile has zero fantasy baseball value while Lindstrom has to be watched on a team without a clear-cut closer.

2012 FANTASY BASEBALL UPDATED SHORTSTOP RANKINGS

2012-02-06T05:28:00.000-08:00

We delve into the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings with spring training starting next week. This position continues to be quite possibly the most shallow in the game so its a nice place to search for sleepers.

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Hanley Ramirez

3. Jose Reyes

4. Starlin Castro

5. Asdrubal Cabrera (+1)

6. Jimmy Rollins (-1)

7. Elvis Andrus

8. JJ Hardy

9. Alexei Ramirez

10. Erick Aybar (+1)

11. Emilio Bonifacio (-1)

12. Derek Jeter

13. Dee Gordon

14. Yunel Escobar

15. Stephen Drew (+1)

-Asdrubal Cabrera is a much better option for 2012 than is Jimmy Rollins due to the fact he is just entering his hitting prime while we see Rollins on the decline. Cabrera's shockingly great 2011 season all checked out when it comes to hsi advanced stats so don't downgrade him thinking it was fishy.
-Emilio Bonifacio doesn't look to have a starting spot to call his own at this point which is a negative for his fantasy baseball value but he figures to spell teammates all over the field which should net him a bunch of at-bats anyway. Still he may not play everyday to start the season which limits his immediate value.
-Alexei Ramirez is probably the most boring draft pick of any player at any position. He is not going to ascend to stardom like many predicted but he is steady in all the categories.
-If he can keep his average at least in the .280-range, than Dee Gordon could shoot way up this list as he has the speed to take 40 bases at least. If all breaks right we could be looking at the biggest stolen base guy in the league.

There you have it. As always let me hear your thoughts on this list.