Fantasy Sports Dominator

The Pujols Injury - What Does it Mean For My Team?

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 16:58:00 +0000

We all know now know that Albert Pujols is expected to be out four to six weeks with a small, non-displaced fracture in his left forearm bone. We have also learned that Pujols has been having some shoulder discomfort, but nothing bad enough to keep him out of the lineup. Injuries like this typically take closer to six weeks to heal not four. And after the six weeks Albert’s arm will be six weeks gone without any movement or training. It might take a while for him to get back to his normal level of strength and movement.

This is bad timing for fantasy owners who were just beginning to reap the rewards of their patience. Pujols has hit .300 with 10 homeruns and 20 RBI over the last month. Even if Pujols takes a while to get back to 100% there is still no way you can afford to drop him. If you feel that you don’t have room on your bench for another guy on the DH you can try to trade him. Selling low is never a good idea, but it is better than dropping him outright. So who can you find to replace him for 4-6 weeks?

With Albert out, Lance Berkman will slide over to 1B, this allows Jon Jay to see the field more in the OF. Jay is worth a look if you are in a deep league. He is a young player without a proven track record, but he has been productive in his time in the majors. He has an OPS nearly .800 and while he won’t hit you a ton of homeruns, he can get you some (4 so far this year) and he will also steal some bases for you, so he has some value.

Jon Jay will pick up a lot of extra at-bats while Pujols heals

There are plenty of options outside of St. Louis too. Former New York Met great Ty Wigginton, now of the Colorado Rockies is an option. Wigginton has now hit 4 homeruns in his last 71 at bats, and is getting regular hitting time at Coors field. The best part is that he has eligibility at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF. He is available in 74% of public leagues. Another player that is too hot to ignore is Roger Bernadina of the Nationals. Bernadina has now homered in three straight days. He is already a threat to steal bases going 10 for 10 so far this year. Now that he has added some pop to his bat he is a solid fantasy player, at least while he is starting everyday with Rick Ankiel out. If he keeps his power numbers up, he will be hard to replace from the lineup even once Ankiel is healthy.

Off Topic: MLB Realignment

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 18:20:00 +0000

One of the hot topics around the MLB world recently has been division realignment. It’s time for MLB to take a step away from its "purist" form and do what is fair. It is time to put the same number of teams in each league and balance out the schedules. Here are a few possible alignments the MLB could switch to. Some are realistic and some are a little more outrageous.

1. This is the simplest realignment. It only involves the Astros moving from the 6 team NL Central to the 4 team AL West. This creates 6, 5-team divisions and 2, 15-team conferences. The drawback to having even conferences is that there are an odd number of teams in each conference so you must have at least one interleague series going on at a time. I don't see why this is an issue as every other major North American sport already does this including the NBA and NFL.

NL East	NL Central	NL West
Atlanta Braves	Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies
Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago Cubs	Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers	Las Angeles Dodgers
Florida Marlins	Pittsburgh Pirates	San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals	St. Louis Cardinals	San Francisco Giants

AL East	AL Central	AL West
Boston Red Sox	Cleveland Indians	Houston Astros
New York Yankees	Detroit Tigers	Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles	Chicago White Sox	Las Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	Oakland Athletics
Toronto Blue Jays	Minnesota Twins	Seattle Mariners

2. If you want to take it a step further you can realign the divisions based on geographic location. In this economy even a professional sports team should be looking on ways to cut down on travel costs. This model divides the teams by location.

NL East	NL Central	NL West
Florida Marlins	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays	Pittsburgh Pirates	Texas Rangers
Atlanta Braves	Cleveland Indians	Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	Arizona Diamondbacks
Kansas City Royals	Detroit Tigers	San Diego Padres

AL East	AL Central	AL West
Boston Red Sox	Chicago Cubs	Seattle Mariners
New York Mets	Chicago White Sox	San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees	Milwaukee Brewers	Oakland Athletics
Baltimore Orioles	Minnesota Twins	Las Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals	Toronto Blue Jays	Las Angeles Angels

3. Yet another model based on geographic location. This one is unique because it creates a division for California tams to call their own. It also puts closer together teams from the north-east together. One drawback is that this will create a super division of the Phillies, Yankees, and Res Sox. But through time things should change. And has anybody thought about realigning the leagues instead of National and American but now East and West?

EL New England	EL Atlantic	EL Midwest
Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles	Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees	Washington Nationals	Detroit Tigers
New York Mets	Atlanta Braves	Cleveland Indians
Philadelphia Phillies	Tampa Bay Rays	Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates	Florida Marlins	St. Louis Cardinals

WL Central	WL Frontier	WL California
Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros	San Francisco Giants
Chicago Cubs	Texas Rangers	Oakland Athletics
Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies	Las Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins	Arizona Diamondbacks	Las Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners	San Diego Padres

4. Yet another geographical influenced realignment. This one breaks up the Yankees from Boston and from the Mets. This alignment features more balanced divisions and features both good and bad teams in all divisions. And do you even need leagues anymore? You could just take the top 8 or ten teams in baseball and put them in the playoffs.

Atlantic	North	Mid West
Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets	Toronto Blue Jays	Chicago White Sox
Philadelphia Phillies	Pittsburgh Pirates	Chicago Cubs
Baltimore Orioles	Cleveland Indians	Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins

South East	South	West
Florida Marlins	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies
Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	Las Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves	Arizona Diamondbacks	Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros	San Diego Padres	San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers	Las Angeles Angels	Seattle Mariners

5. Bear with me on my final suggestion. This would be more of a rotating division format, updated every couple years based on past performance. In this setup you would have the most parity and the most fairness. Every league is as competitive as the next. Best 8 or 10 teams make the playoffs every year.

Ruth Division	Wagner Division	Koufax Division
New York Mets	Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds	Toronto Blue Jays	Cleveland Indians
Texas Rangers	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins
Arizona Diamondbacks	Kansas City Royals	Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners	San Diego Padres	Oakland Athletics

Mays Division	Williams Division	Ryan Division
Philadelphia Phillies	Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals	Florida Marlins	Detroit Tigers
Atlanta Braves	St. Louis Cardinals	Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox	Colorado Rockies	Chicago Cubs
Las Angeles Dodgers	Las Angeles Angels	San Francisco Giants

Around the Disabled List

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 04:07:00 +0000

The disabled list has been seeing all sorts of action the past few days. Aaron Harang finally landed on the DL. Harang had been going well with 10 quality starts so far this year. He is not expected to be out much longer than 15 days. I would hold onto him. If you absolutely need innings and cannot afford to save a spot for Harang on the DL look for Carlos Carrasco of the Indians. Carrasco just pitched his second straight outstanding start, against the Yankees no less. Even thought the Indians are struggling currently, Carrasco is not. In his last 6 starts he is 5-1 with a 3.03 ERA.

Derek Jeter heads to the DL. He is just 6 hits shy of 3,000. The media will be keeping track of him when he comes back off the DL, but that does not mean you should be. Jeter is a fringe player right now, currently ranked as the 13^th most productive SS in the league. Coming off an injury, you can probably find better options out there. One of those options is Jamey Carroll of the Dodgers. Carroll is now near the top of the Dodgers lineup and is raking up the at-bats. He is batting .319 on the season with 5 steals. He is still available in nearly 75% of leagues. Darwin Barney of the Cubs is another SS to keep an eye on. He is hitting .294 and has shown some pop, with 25 rbi.

On the flip side, there are players getting healthy. Chances are they are already on teams, but it never hurts to check. Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros came off the DL and pitched 6 scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 3.12 on the year.

Wandy Rodriguez pitched 6 scoreless innings in his first stint off the DL

A couple of St. Louis Cardinals are also due to come off the DL soon. Kyle McClellan will start on Wednesday (6/15) and Matt Holliday is scheduled to come of f the DL the next day. Holliday is probably not a free agent in your league, but McClelland could be. Make sure you are always checking the waiver wire throughout the season. You never know when one of your teammates might try to pull a fast one on you and send a stud player down while on the DL. Some people get impatient and dump at the first sign of injury.

New Section

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 17:48:00 +0000

Check out the new Three up, Three down section of my blog. I will regularly update it with three players you need to pick up, and three you need to send packing.

Three Up, Three Down

This week features guys like Mike Leake of the Reds and Jed Lowrie of the Red Sox.

Depth is no good when its stuck on your bench.

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 17:30:00 +0000

If you want to start chipping away at the league leaders you need to focus on innings and at-bats. I know a lot of people are against adding mediocre players as a way of increasing at bats because they are worried that the new players will bring categories such as average and era, or whip down. When talking about hitters, you need to focus on your starting lineup; there is no good that comes from having a guy racking up the at-bats while on your bench. Sure, you could adjust your lineup based on the opponents starting pitching every day, but that does not always guarantee you more production.

Your best bet is to fill out your fantasy team with excess starting pitchers. That way you can set your lineup everyday and get as many innings as you can. More innings MIGHT mean a higher ERA and a higher WHIP, it also MIGHT mean a lower ERA and WHIP. It WILL mean more strikeouts and more chances for wins. The positives outweigh the negatives. And there are quality starting pitchers still available that can help you out in all categories. Johnny Cueto of the Reds started the season late after coming off of an injury, but he has not allowed an earned run in three of his seven starts this season. He sits at 3-2 with a very impressive 1.93 ERA on the year. He is available in 36% of Yahoo public leagues. Dillon Gee of the Mets just improved to 7-0 on the season with a 3.05 ERA. He is available in 64% of leagues. Phil Humber of the White Sox is sporting a 2.87 ERA with a WHIP under 1.00. The best part is that he has gone at least seven innings in eight of his last nine starts. He is an inning eater. He is available in 61% of leagues.

Brennan Boesch of the Tigers is red-hot

As far as your lineup is concerned, stock up on at-bats from guys in your lineup. It does not matter how many at-bats a guy is getting if he is on your bench. People might not realize the kind of year Todd Helton of the Rockies is having all of a sudden. He won’t get you stolen bases but he is now hitting .322 and after starting the season batting 5^th, he is now batting third and amassing more at-bats. He is available in 60% of Yahoo leagues. Brennan Boesch of the Tigers is another guy to look at. He has come on strong as of late. He was hitting .250 at the beginning of June and he’s already streaked his way to a .280 average. He is a free agent in 49% of fantasy leagues.

For those of you in a deeper league where any at-bats help, keep an eye out for Bill Hall. He was released by the Astros earlier this month, but just signed with the Giants to fill in for Freddy Sanchez who will miss extended time to a dislocated shoulder. The Giants lineup is pretty bare right now so expect him to get plenty of at-bats while he is in there.

Remember whatever you do, a guy on your bench amasses no stats. You have to get him into the lineup to take advantage of your team’s depth.

Be an Innings Hog (and at-bats)

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 00:52:00 +0000

Now that we are nine weeks into the fantasy season, we are starting to see some separation in the standings right? Well just because you are not in the top 3, or even the top 5 that does not mean you can quit. Ignoring the fact that it is unfair to quit if you are playing in a head-to-head league where it is your duty to put up a fight, you still have a chance to win; even if you are in last place. Bare with me as I am going to borrow some figures from the legendary Matthew Berry.

This chart indicates the percent chance someone has of finishing in a certain spot depending on where they are ranked after nine weeks. So, as you can see, your league’s current leader only has a 42.4% chance of staying in first until the end of the season. You could be in the bottom three of your league and you still have over a 2% chance of winning your league. I know that’s not a very high percentage, but that means it is possible. You just have to know how to start your comeback.

Chances are if you are near the bottom of your league it’s because some of your guys have not performed like you had hoped, and you probably have some injuries you are waiting out. Time to cut the fat, and start getting some stats!

You do not have time to hold onto guys that are going to be out for another month or so. You cannot afford to have multiple people on the DL taking up roster spots. You need AB’s and innings if you want to get back into the race. So if you have Jonathon Broxton it’s time to cut ties. Even if he gets back the closer job sometime in July do you really want to be relying on a guy coming off of elbow problems getting you saves? If he does return to form, chances are you can swoop in and pick him back up anyway.

A couple of New York Mets should be testing your patients by now also. How much longer can you afford to wait for Ike Davis and David Wright? Not long. It is also time to cut ties with the chronically injured. Guys that are due back soon, but chances are they will get hurt again. I’m looking at you Jake Peavy, Travis Hafner, and Eric Chavez. You obviously wait on a guy like Matt Holliday or Hanley Ramirez, and despite no one being able to tell me WHATS GOING ON WITH JOE MAUER! I am willing to hold onto him as well.

So there’s what you can’t afford to do. Come back tomorrow and I’ll tell you what you can do.

Play Fantasy Baseball Like the Stock Market

noreply@blogger.com (FSD) — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 01:34:00 +0000

So you are in 8^th place out of 12 teams? No big deal. The baseball season is very long. Two months does not a season make. So far this season Lance Berkman has 12 homeruns and 40 RBI. Teammate, and perennial fantasy baseball MVP, Albert Pujols has 13 and 38. If you had to make a bet on who will hit more homeruns and RBI for the remainder of the season who would you put your money on? I know I’d go with Pujols.

There actually aren’t a whole lot of over-achievers that standout this year. Matt Joyce of the Rays, Asdrubal Cabrera of the Indians, and Corey Patterson of the Jays are the closest things to over-achievers we have this year. There is a fair share of pitchers out there that you should be wary about. Jared Weaver continues to fall back to earth after his near perfect start. But who I would be most cautious with is the young pitcher. There are a few young pitchers having great years so far. Alexi Ogando of the Rangers, and Michael Pineda of the Mariners are two examples. These are two good, young, promising players who have great careers ahead of them. But that doesn’t mean they will keep up what they are doing right now.

Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals was great during the first half of 2010, he had an ERA of 2.17 and struck out 80 batters. He was okay in the second half of the season, but a 3.53 ERA with only 52 strikeouts is a big drop-off in fantasy value. This wasn’t as bad as Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake was 6-1 with a 3.53 ERA and 70 strikeouts in the first half of the season. In the second half he only went 2-3 with a 6.91 ERA with only 21 strikeouts. Dillon Gee of the Mets and Josh Tomlin of the Indians are two more inexperienced starting pitchers to monitor.

To be a truly successful fantasy baseball manager, you cannot just know when to dump players who are about fall off a cliff. You have to know who to replace them with too. Finding value is not always easy. I doubt anyone was dumb enough to drop Albert Pujols after a slow-start. What about Shin-Soo Choo? He has been dropped in 4% of Yahoo public leagues. Not a very high percentage but it’s worth a look to make sure he is not available in your league. He claimed to the media that he has felt added pressure following his DUI and has not been playing well. But as he gets further and further removed from his arrest, I would expect him to bounce back closer to the .300 average he has had the last couple seasons.

A couple of Chicago White Sox head up the all-disappointment team so far. Adam Dunn has long been a great asset to a fantasy baseball team, his statistics remarkably consistent; over 40 homers and 90 RBI for the last 7 seasons with an average around .250, until this year. On top of that, Dunn is typically a better hitter in the first half of the season (2/3 of his Homeruns before the all-star break), despite this I would take a waiver on him. He is a free agent in nearly 20% of all Yahoo leagues, and he might be close to a free agent in your league. It may not take a very big offer to get Adam Dunn on to your team. If you are a team in dire need of homeruns, he is your guy to get. Dunn’s teammate Alex Rios is another guy to look at. He had 34 steals just one year ago, but only 4 so far this season. His steals are down because his average is down. He currently has a BAbip of .205, over .100 points lower than his career average. Babip tends to average out, so I would expect Rios’s fantasy stats to rise along with it.

One final player to watch is Delmon Young of the Twins. He is having an absolute awful season, batting .215 with only 1 homerun. He’s actually hitting more flyballs then groundballs for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, he is currently popping up at an alarming rate. Thirty percent of his flyballs have not left the outfield. Once he settles down and stops swinging for the fences on every at bat I would expect his totals to return to normal.

Starting pitchers are a different story. Just because a guy had a great season last year, does not mean you can count on him repeating his performance. So don’t think you can pick up a struggling Ubaldo Jimenez or Zach Greinke and automatically have them turn into an All-Star. If you really want to find value, look at the closers department.

Some closers appear to be underperforming with a low save number. Francisco Cordero of the Reds appears to be having a subpar season; he is only tied for 17^th in the league with 11 saves. But then you realize he is 11 for 13 with an ERA of 1.59. You would expect the Reds to play in a higher percentage of close games as the season goes on. If Cordero keeps up his stats, his value as a closer will skyrocket. Some other closers that fall into this category are Neftali Feliz of the Tigers, Fernando Salas of the Cards, and Kyle Farnsworth of the Rays. In the opposite direction you have some guys with high save totals, but otherwise shaky stats. Brandon League of the Mariners is tied for 5^th in the league in saves despite a 4.68 ERA. Leo Nunez of the Marlins and Craig Kimbrel of the Braves have each pitched well this season, but they are both the benefactors of the most save situations in the league. If you need hitting or starting pitching, sell your closers high.

Fantasy Baseball is like the stock-market. Ride a player while he’s hot, but make sure you sell him before he slumps. This is the key to fantasy baseball.