http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/ Fantasy Baseball blog, fantasy baseball draft software, player projections, and everything needed to win your league. en Copyright 2012 Fri, 25 May 2012 21:43:17 -0700 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss FantisticsInsiderBaseballhttp://feedburner.google.com Eric Hosmer - The Royals' first baseman finished Friday's game 1-for-4 with a run scored. I've written this about Eric Hosmer multiple times in the past two seasons - he's got to improve his balls in play distribution. After posting a GB rate of 49% in 2011, Hosmer's increased that mark to 52% this season, and it's killing his value. Add in a 16% LD rate and 30% FB rate and you can see why Hosmer's BA is under .200 and his SLG% is similar to Juan Pierre's. That said, a .194 BABIP isn't going to continue all season so I have confidence the BA will eventually rise and that should, in turn, mean more power. Hosmer tallied a solid .173 ISO in 2011, but that mark has fallen to just .139. There's not much of a trade market for a guy hitting under the Mendoza line, so Hosmer's owners have to just stick it out and hope the youngster turns things around soon. Matt Joyce - The Rays' Matt Joyce connected for a grand slam off Jon Lester - a lefty - and finished 2-for-3 with 4 RBI on Friday. Joyce entered Friday with a .296 BA and .612 SLG% versus righties while owning just a .211 BA and .297 SLG% against southpaws, so the fact he hit a bomb and had two hits off a lefty is significant. Joyce has a solid 12% walk rate and his .268 ISO is obviously excellent. One area where I'm concerned is that Joyce is enjoying a .319 BABIP despite a 16% LD rate. If Joyce can't improve his LD rate, he's unlikely to maintain his current BABIP, so that .283 BA will fall closer to the .255-.265 range. Moving forward, I'm still only starting Joyce versus righties and expecting his BA to regress. Kevin Youkilis - Against the Rays on Friday, Kevin Youkilis went 1-for-4 with 1 RBI and is now hitting .243/.313/.392 in 2012. After hitting .307 in 2010, Youkilis' BA dropped to just .258 a season ago despite a 20% LD rate and .296 BABIP. He was still able to maintain a .202 ISO and hit 17 HRs in 120 games. However, Youkilis' balls in play distribution has really changed this season. He's still maintaining a 20% LD rate, but his GB rate is up to 57% (compared to a 35% career rate). Youkilis' HR/FB rate is strong at 27%, but he's only hitting fly balls at a 22% clip, so there aren't as many chances for the ball to leave the yard. At 33-years old, it's reasonable for Youkilis to start slowing down, but I also can't imagine he's going to continue hitting nearly 60% of his balls in play on the ground. Expect positive regression here and for Youkilis to get his BA up around the .280 range by season's end to go along with 15-18 HRs. Adam Jones - The Orioles seem set to extend outfielder Adam Jones for five to six years and roughly $80-$90 million, ensuring the rising star stays in Baltimore for the foreseeable future. Jones is off to an outstanding start this season by batting .310./.353/.594 after going 1-for-5 with 2 RBI against the Royals. Jones' ISO has jumped from .185 in 2011 to .283 this season while his HR/FB mark sits at a cool 26%. While his walk rate hasn't improved much (still around 5%), Jones' has improved his chase rate by 8% while maintaining his contact rate meaning he's likely connecting on better pitches. This change in his approach seems to have led to better power, although I doubt he can keep his current ISO or SLG% marks. Still, Jones looks like a good bet for 25-28 HRs and 20+ steals. Jason Hammel - Jason Hammel battled the Royals on Friday evening and tossed six innings, struck out seven and allowed zero earned runs. He entered the outing with an impressive 3.10 xFIP to go along with an ERA of 3.12. The right hander has found success thanks to an improved whiff rate (up to 8.67 from 4.97 in 2011) and a huge boost in his GB rate (up to 57% from 43% in 2011). I noted this earlier in the season, but Hammel has added more than 1 mph to his fastball and is also getting batters to make contact on 10% fewer pitches outside the strike zone. Additionally, the overall contact rate against Hammel is down by 7%. So, it's clear Hammel is doing a much better job fooling batters and missing bats. I believe much of his current success is sustainable, so he's not an automatic sell-high candidate for me. For fantasy baseball advice and info, follow me on Twitter.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/YX1E9vwOEd8/al_player_notes_-_may_26_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_player_notes_-_may_26_2012.html Player Commentary Fri, 25 May 2012 21:43:17 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_player_notes_-_may_26_2012.html Devin Mesoraco (C-CIN)- Mesoraco went 1-for-3 with a walk and a grand slam on Thursday night. The home run was his second of the season, and he improved his slash line to .213/.310/.344 for the season. Mesoraco has not gotten the playing time I thought he would receive, as he has appeared in 21 games with 71 plate appearances compared with Ryan Hanigan who has appeared in 27 games with 91 plate appearances. A .220 BABIP can be blamed for Mesoraco's slow start, and his 11.3 percent walk rate and 14.1 percent strikeout rate indicates the rookie has a strong grasp of the strike zone. His 10.5 percent HR/FB ratio is still strong, and he should reach collect 10-13 home runs if he can get more than 350 plate appearances this season. Mesoraco has the talent, but Baker's reliance on Hanigan looks like it will continue to be a problem. Eric Stults (SP-SD)- Stults earned his first win since 2009 after holding the Mets to just one run (unearned) on four hits and one walk in five innings of work. He struck out just two, but could have gone longer if it were not for a rain delay and a line drive off of his triceps in the fourth. He now has a 1.96 ERA in 18.2 innings for both the Padres and White Sox this season, and could be a decent option in NL-only leagues. His 3.96 K/9 might not look like much, but his 6.4 percent swinging strikeout rate should not translate into that low of a strikeout rate. His 51.8 percent ground ball rate would be a career best, and pitching in the friendly confines of Petco Park will only help his ERA. Owners should not be afraid to start the veteran left-hander in daily leagues especially against the NL West. Jason Heyward (RF-ATL)- Heyward's recent struggles at the plate continued as he went hitless in four plate appearances with a walk and a strikeout. He now has a .237/.329/.414 slash line to go along with his five home runs and nine stolen bases. A career worst 24.1 percent strikeout rate continues to hurt his batting average, and his career worst 13.1 percent swinging strike rate and 32.9 percent chase rate indentify that this will be an ongoing problem. When it comes to his batted ball rates, Heyward is much improved posting a career best 21.3 percent line drive rate and 39.8 percent fly ball rate. Unlike last season when his shoulder hurt his overall numbers, his line looks like it can be corrected with some improved patience. I think he can get to 20 home runs with line similar to his rookie season. At least his improved stolen base numbers have eased the pain of his ongoing slump. Ryan Vogelsong (SP-SFG)- Vogelsong earned his third win of the season on Thursday night against the Marlins. He allowed three runs on seven hits (one home run) and three walks with four strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched. Despite a 2.50 ERA, owners should continue to see his ERA to rise over the coming weeks considering his 3.87 FIP and 4.55 xFIP. Vogelsong has continued to benefit from stranding an unusual amount of runners (83.1 percent), and an extremely low BABIP (.248). His 14.9 percent line drive rate and 14.1 percent infield fly rate suggest he might be earning his low BABIP, but his walk rate of 3.83 BB/9 should continue to be a problem. His 38.6 percent zone rate is the fourth worst among qualified starters, and his career low 6.2 percent swinging strike rate indicates there might be some regression in his strikeout rate. Owners should sell high on Vogelsong now to maximize their value. Gincarlo Stanton (RF-MIA)- Stanton went 3-for-5 with a strikeout, a double, a home run and three RBI in the Marlins 14-7 loss to the Giants on Thursday. The home run was his ninth home run this month (tenth of the season), and he improved his slash line to .284/.348/.537. His 21.7 percent HR/FB ratio is now in line with his career rate of 23.7 percent, and I expect more home runs to follow considering he is not likely to continue line drives at a 27.1 percent rate. Miami's new ballpark still presents a problem in terms of home runs (16.8 percent HR/FB there compared to 32.2 percent on road), but the increase in his fly ball rate that I envision should counteract the affect of his home park. His .284 batting average should drop to the .270's, but his 36-40 home runs should make 2012 a career year. ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/4M1OGgT9354/nl_player_notes-_may_19th_2012_1.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_notes-_may_19th_2012_1.html Player Commentary Fri, 25 May 2012 06:53:25 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_notes-_may_19th_2012_1.html Jhonny Peralta (SS - DET): I checked in on Jhonny Peralta a few weeks back, noting some of the odd discrepancies between his indicators and his performance early in the season. Peralta's posting a career best 31% LD Rate and 11% BB Rate but you wouldn't know It from his .246/.333/.358 line which represents the 2nd worst OPS since he became a full-time player in 2005. A heightened K Rate is part to blame for the problems but it's only 2 percentage points above his last 2 years and actually 2 percentage points below his career average. In addition despite the K% jumping, Peralta's swinging strike rate is at a career low 8.3%. Since I checked in on Peralta the gap between the performance and the skills continues to grow. Peralta's hit just .244/.404/.341 since I checked in on May 7th, but his LD Rate in May is an absurd 38%, his EYE is 1.18 and his BB% is over 18%. From a skills perspective it looks like Peralta is scorching hot, but the performance just hasn't followed. If you're a Peralta owner stay patient and if you're an owner who can afford to sacrifice speed for some power, perhaps make a play for the Tigers SS. Hiroki Kuroda (SP - NYY): It's been difficult to watch Hiroki Kuroda's transition to the AL East. I've owned Kuroda for a number of years, but his stuff is really struggling to miss bats in the AL. Kuroda's swinging strike rate which was above 10% in consecutive years has dropped to just 7.6% this season. He's also struggled to generate chases outside the zone and his O-swing rate has dropped 3 percentage points to a league average 30%. The result has been a vast drop in his K% (14.6%, 19.2% last year) and a corresponding rise in his BB% (8.6% from 5.9%). The league switch has quickly turned Kuroda into a non-entity in traditional 10 and 12 team leagues after spending much of his career as a mid-rotation fantasy darling in the NL West. Kuroda will likely see some regression in his HR/FB Rate (19.6%) which will allow him spot-start value in traditional formats (especially on the road), but owners need to adjust expectations downward for Kuroda this year. Daniel Nava (OF - BOS): Perhaps the most difficult player to assess in all of fantasy is the "non-prospect" that puts together a hot start at the big league level. Daniel Nava certainly fits that mold as his .350/.491/.600 line in his first 55 big league PA's is nothing short of stellar. Nava's shown elite plate discipline (16% chase rate, 18.2% BB Rate, 4.7% swinging strike rate) coupled with good LD skills (23.5%) that support the phenomenal start. The career .317/.414/.496 minor leaguer has certainly had extended periods of success, but his lack of ideal power (career high 12 HR's) or speed (15 SB's in last 225 games) makes him a limited fantasy player. Still, any player benefiting from the Red Sox lineup and home park warrants attention and while Nava has been rolling (mostly through elite skill, rather than luck) he deserves attention. The pace will inevitably slow as Nava posted an ISO around .160 the last two years at AAA and is currently at .250. A more normal expectation for Nava would be something along the lines of .270/.365/.440 with limited speed and power contributions. A better option in saber-metric oriented leagues that reward OBP, Nava can be considered a "ride-the-hot-hand" in traditional mixed leagues, while more of a 4th or 5th OF option in deep leagues. Dan Haren (SP - LAA): It was only a matter of time before Haren's 4+ ERA and 1.33 WHIP corrected and on Thursday night Haren did his best to correct it all at once. Haren entered the start with slightly elevated BB and LD Rates that hinted at some issues with command. In addition his FB velocity had been down early in the season leaving some questions about whether Haren's workload in past years was finally catching up to him. On Thursday night Haren put any of those concerns behind him. He struck out 14 in a dominant complete game shutout effort, allowing just 4 hits and 0 walks. The strong effort immediately corrects any of the slippage in the peripherals and demonstrates that Haren's strong swinging strike rate (entered with a 10.1% rate) was more indicative of his stuff than any loss in velocity. Haren remains a solid high-end #2 SP and should continue to hold that value the rest of the way for the Angels. Addison Reed (RP - CHW): The White Sox made the formal announcement earlier in the week that Reed was their closer, but haven't had the opportunity to give Reed any work since the promotion became official. On Thursday night he was able to get some work in with a 5 run lead in the 9th. It was a good thing Reed had a cushion as he allowed a 2-run HR to Justin Morneau while striking out 2 in his inning of work. Reed's tremendous K Rate (11.93 K/9, 30% K%) gets a lot of the attention, but there are some risks in his statistical profile that could leave the role up for grabs again. Reed's 4.40 BB/9 coupled with a 27% LD Rate and 45% FB Rate could lead to some explosive innings (which we've already seen this year). The BB's weren't much of a problem for Reed in the minors so there's hope that improves, but a league average chase rate paired with the high LD Rate makes me think hitters see Reed ok. Given the White Sox are in a transition mode and Reed is the face of the future he'll likely have a long leash. Just be prepared that his skill set could lead to bumpy rides. As strong as his K Rates are, enormous FB Rates paired with shaky command can make any closer susceptible to a blow-up. Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @drewdinkmeyer These are only a few of the players we are covering today. We profile over 100 players everyday in our premium section, become a member today.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/dIuiZ5scOT4/al_daily_notes_-_may_25th_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_-_may_25th_2012.html Player Commentary Thu, 24 May 2012 22:35:00 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_-_may_25th_2012.html @Fantistics and @jribando ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/SvkttZv8ICE/nl_player_daily_notes_-_may_24_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_daily_notes_-_may_24_2012.html Player Commentary Thu, 24 May 2012 04:27:19 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_daily_notes_-_may_24_2012.html Hitters 2 Billy Hamilton CIN SS A 40 SB in 41 G and a .386 OBP. Rumors of an eventual move to CF. 3 Wil Myers KC OF A 1.160 OPS gets him AAA promotion. .333 there through first 15 at-bats. 4 Miguel Sano MIN 3B A .371 OBP and 22 of 41 H are for extra bases. Needs to cut down on the K's (48 in 44 G). 5 Manny Machado BAL SS A Just 2 HR to date, but he's hitting .361 in last 10 games and yes, he's still 19. 6 Jurickson Profar TEX SS A .349 in May and could be fantasy superstar if power develops. 18 Wilin Rosario COL C B+ Playing time should increase due to Ramon Hernandez injury. Value up. 19 Gary Brown SF OF B+ .274 in May is an improvement, but still just 0 HR to go with his 12 SB. 29 Kolten Wong STL 2B B+ .371 in May and has OPS up to .888 on the season. 32 George Springer HOU OF B Well this is good: .513 with 7 HR in a 10 game stretch. 34 Christian Bethancourt ATL C B 4-for-13 since missing close to 3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Pitchers 28 Jed Bradley MIL SP B 5.02 ERA and 8:8 K:BB in 14.1 May innings after a solid April. 30 Jose Fernandez MIA SP B Needs to progress vs. LH hitters, but hard to argue with a 1.91 ERA in 8 starts. 31 Wily Peralta MIL SP B Hammered for 9 runs last time out and may need more AAA time than we thought. 33 Nathan Eovaldi LAD SP B 5 shutout innings last time out, but control has wavered a bit lately. 35 Jesse Biddle PHI SP B 1.44 ERA since April 19 and a solid 40:15 K:BB in 36.1 overall innings. 36 Sonny Gray OAK SP B Needs to improve vs. LHP - .302 avg, 5 K, 14 BB. 38 Alex Meyer WAS SP B 4.70 ERA conflicts with his 10.3 K/9. The latter number gives me optimism. 40 Nestor Molina CHW SP B 6 runs in a one-shot AAA gig and then 6 in each of his next two AA starts. 42 Tyrell Jenkins STL SP B ERA goes from 2.17 to 4.01 after he allows 8 runs in his last start. 43 Matt Barnes BOS SP B 11 19th overall pick off to great start - 0.60 ERA, 67:6 K:BB in 44.2 IP. This is just a sample of the more than 70 prospect notes we publish each week for subscribers.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/RCLUOJ07aSU/prospect_spreadsheet_updates_-_may_24_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/prospect_spreadsheet_updates_-_may_24_2012.html Player Commentary Wed, 23 May 2012 23:41:38 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/prospect_spreadsheet_updates_-_may_24_2012.html Daniel Bard - It's been a difficult season thus far for Daniel Bard, who faced the Orioles on Wednesday and yielded two earned runs on five hits while striking out two and walking four in 5 1/3 innings. Bard's been struggling because he's issuing an excessive number of free passes (6.75 walk rate) and opposing batters are hitting a lot of line drives off him (22% LD rate). Add in more balls in play thanks to a significant drop in Bard's whiff rate (3.38 K/9) and you can see why the pitcher owns an xFIP of 6.32. Moving from a reliever to a starter meant Bard would lose some velocity on his fastball and that's exactly what's happened. The right hander averaged a 97 mph fastball in 2011, but his velocity has fallen to 93 mph this season. Perhaps that's part of the reason hitters have been able to show such drastic improvements against Bard. Until he can reverse his current indicator stats, Bard's best left on your bench. Jake Arrieta - Entering Wednesday's outing against the Red Sox, Jake Arrieta's ERA of 4.72 was significantly higher than his 3.30 xFIP. That difference may cause you to believe Arrieta's been unlucky through nine starts this season prior to yesterday. However, I don't believe that's the case. While Arrieta's got solid strikeout (8.30) and walk rates (2.11), he's allowing a 23% LD rate but his .295 BABIP remains slightly below league average. Based on that LD rate, he should own a higher BABIP. Arrieta also continues to struggle with the long ball, yielding nine HRs in his first 61 innings this season after allowing 21 HRs in 119 innings a season ago. Batters hit the ball hard off Arrieta which explains the poor line drive and HR marks. I love the improved strikeout and walk rates, but until the right hander can induce weaker contact on balls in play, he's going to struggle to keep his ERA to an acceptable range. On Wednesday, Arrieta tossed 5 2/3 innings and struck out two while allowing four earned runs. James Shields - After posting ERAs of 5.18 and 2.82 during the past two seasons, we predicted James Shields would be around the middle of those two extremes this season and he entered Wednesday's start against the Blue Jays with a 3.77 ERA. However, Shields also owned a career-low 3.09 xFIP, which continues a positive trend as the big right hander has lowered his xFIP in three straight seasons. On Wednesday, Shields allowed two earned runs on seven hits in 7 1/3 innings. He struck out 10 and walked one. After yielding just 0.94 HRs per nine innings in 2011, Shields has regressed back to his career average by posting a 1.21 HR rate in 2012. He's also maintained a strong strikeout rate near 9.00 while walking about 3.00 batters per game. All that said, the biggest difference for Shields this season is his incredibly high 59% GB rate. For his career, Shields GB rate is at 45% so it's interesting to note he's tallying a bunch more grounders. Based on his peripherals, I believe Shields ERA may drop by about a quarter of a run before the season's over, but you're basically seeing Shields pitch to his ability through 10 starts in 2012. David Ortiz - Big Papi had a rough day on Wednesday against the Orioles, taking the collar by going 0-for-5. He's now batting .315/.383/.583 for the season with 10 HRs. Ortiz has been successful thanks to a solid 24% LD rate and .268 ISO. Interestingly, Ortiz has made contact with a larger percentage of pitches that are outside the strike zone - improving his contact rate from 60% in 2010 to 72% in 2011 to 79% this season. While this may seem like a bad idea, Ortiz is making it work as his BABIP is sitting at .321 (compared to a .304 career mark). As Ortiz has expanded his swing zone in the past two seasons, his LD rates have jumped into the low 20% range after sitting in the mid-to-high teens for most of his career. Meanwhile, Ortiz has still been able to maintain pretty solid walk rates in the 10-12% range, which are just slightly below his 13% career mark. All said, Ortiz continues to reinvent himself as a hitter and the results are excellent. Doug Fister - In 2010, Doug Fister owned a measly 4.89 whiff rate to go along with a 4.11 ERA and 4.10 xFIP. Last season, Fister increased his strikeout rate to 6.07 and lowered ERA to 2.83 and his xFIP to 3.61. And so far this season, Fister's continued to improve these three key indicators, posting a 6.75 strikeout rate, 1.84 ERA and 2.98 xFIP after tossing 6 2/3 innings and yielding two earned runs versus the Indians on Wednesday. The right hander continues to post a solid GB rate (53%), but is also getting pretty lucky (90% strand rate and .261 BABIP). However, I'm most encouraged by the fact Fister continues to miss bats because when you couple a strikeout rate in the 7.00-range with a GB rate in the 50%-55% range, you're going to get solid ERA and WHIP marks. At this point, Fister's worth starting against most lineups. For advice and updates on fantasy baseball, follow me on Twitter.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/0pf7hMfEzDM/al_player_notes_-_may_24_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_player_notes_-_may_24_2012.html Player Commentary Wed, 23 May 2012 21:34:50 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_player_notes_-_may_24_2012.html Justin Morneau 1B (MIN) - Morneau hit his 6th homer of the year last night, and owners who took a flier on him have to be really encouraged. It is a small sample for sure but the power numbers to me indicate that Morneau is healthy. He now has 6 homers in 109 plate appearances after homering just 4 times in 288 plate appearances a year ago. The ISO is up from a pitiful .106 to a .250 mark - right on par with Morneau's last 2 healthy seasons. I'm not suggesting Morneau is all the way back as his chase rate (40.2%) and swinging strike rate (12.3%) are out of whack with anything he has done before, but I'd rather take the upside of a Morneau with some plate discipline risk than the guy who was devoid of any power last season. Gordon Beckham 2B (CHA) - Beckham smacked his fifth homer of the year last night. Unfortunately for Beckham the overall line (headlining is still pretty ugly: .207/.273/.348. His ISO of .141 heading into last night is higher than it was the past 2 seasons, but that has more to do with an elevated HR/FB% (8.9%, 6.9 and 6.4 the past 2 seasons) than it does anything else. In fact, his overall extra base hit percentage is right in line with his career mark. Beckham's plate discipline is also right in line with what it was last year (.34 EYE), which isn't very good. There's no reason to higher the low expectations set forth for Beckham in the preseason just because a couple of doubles have turned into homers early on, but it is safe to say the lowly .207 BA will increase with some better luck on balls in play. Ubaldo Jimenez SP (CLE) - I'm trying to look for some positives on Ubaldo, but he's simply broken and I don't think the tools to fix him exist on this planet. He gave up 3 ER in 6 IP last night which isn't too awful. Unfortunately the K:BB ratio of 2:6 was. He yielded a whopping 30 LD% and a below league average GB% of 40 during the start. Ubaldo entered the game with a K/BB rate of .88, by far a career worst. He also entered the game with a career worst GB% of 40%, not even close to his career average. Ubaldo should only be owned in very deep leagues and kept on the bench in said leagues until he starts showing legitimate signs of turning things around. I recently picked him up in a 12 team league to stash for upside, but the probability of him reaching it seems extremely low given the lack of positives in his game right now. Matt Moore SP (TB) - Matt Moore continued to flash his potential last night by striking out 6 batters in 4.2 IP. He also showed why expectations for this year need to be tempered; he's simply too wild right now. Moore yielded 4 free passes and got up to 97 pitches in the fifth inning. The 2 runs he allowed were clearly the results of walks. Moore remains an elite option in keeper leagues because of his dominance, but I'm not so sure he is a sub-4ERA pitcher the rest of this season. The walk problem (4.6 per 9) and FB riskiness (33.1 GB rate) are not a good mix. Jeff Francoeur OF (KC) - Frenchy got off to a terribly slow start but has now homered in 2 straight games. I wouldn't worry too much here. He isn't going to repeat last year's 20 stolen bases, but I think the rest of last year's fantasy stats can still be repeated. Francoeur actually has career bests in his K and BB rates giving him a .48 EYE, which is very good for him. Currently his issue isn't a lack of plate discipline but decreased power due to an inflated GB% (9 percentage points above career average) and deflated HR/FB% (5 percentage points below career mark). Francoeur will always be a hacker (42% chase rate, in line with previous 2 years) and my personal belief is that that makes him more prone to prolonged slumps. However, given the plate discipline numbers I think the GB and HR/FB rates will correct themselves as the season progresses, and we already are starting to see this with his performance the last couple of days. ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/r-mQwrR6kbE/al_daily_notes_may_23rd_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_may_23rd_2012.html Player Commentary Wed, 23 May 2012 06:20:54 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_may_23rd_2012.html R.A. Dickey (SP - NYM) - Dickey delivered his most dominant outing of the year in Pittsburgh, punching out a season-high 11 Pirates and allowing them just a run on five hits and a walk in seven innings. The knuckleballer has been susceptible to the long ball this year having allowed eight in 57 1/3 innings, but his groundball rate has remained solid - his HR/FB rate has doubled from the last two seasons. He's highly unlikely to keep an eight K/9 going for much longer, but he's a solid matchup play and isn't likely to suffer a decline of a typical 37-year old pitcher since he's a knuckleballer. He's definitely worth using at home against the Padres Sunday. Adam Wainwright (SP - STL) - Wainwright dominated the Padres en route to a four-hit shutout, walking just one with nine strikeouts. His ERA is still very high at 4.78, but that is mostly due to an extremely high 21.9% which is bound to regress at least somewhat. His strikeout and walk rates aren't too far off his career averages and his groundball rate is at a career high. His command should likely improve going forward as he further distances himself from Tommy John surgery, making him an excellent buy low candidate. He has a solid matchup at home with the Phillies Sunday. Shaun Marcum (SP - MIL) - Marcum had a rough outing against the Giants, allowing six runs on five hits (two home runs) in six innings with two walks and five strikeouts. His peripherals worsened last year despite moving to the NL and while his strikeout rate has rebounded so far this year, his walk rate has continued to rise. His fastball usage was down to 28% entering the night and he has thrown his excellent changeup eight percent less often than last season. He has always been homer-prone, and that doesn't play well as a right-hander in Miller Park. The Diamondbacks don't have many left-handed weapons to challenge him in his next outing, but the way the ball flies at Chase Field combined with his flyball tendencies could lead to home runs. Ricky Nolasco (SP - MIA) - Nolasco gave up three runs in the first against the Rockies, but only allowed one more run in the next five innings. He also struck out a season-high six against just one walk, which is big as his strikeout rate has continued to fall following last season's sharp decline accompanied by a drop in velocity. On the bright side, his groundball rate has spiked since the start of 2011. He was able to register 14 swinging strikes on Tuesday, all on his changeup (three-of-14), slider (nine-of-26) and splitter (two-of-eight). He's a good play at home against the Giants Sunday. Jordan Zimmermann (SP - WAS) - Zimmermann bounced back against the Phillies, limiting them to a run on seven hits in six innings, walking two (one intentional) and striking out two. He has been lucky on balls in play, allowing just a .252 BABIP despite a 20.3 LD% entering the night, but he has compensated for that by a large increase in his groundball rate while keeping his strikeout and walk rates stable. Although he will allow more hits going forward, especially with the increased groundball rate, he should allow many fewer home runs, and the overall changes are a net positive. He is usable in Miami on Monday.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/NeElVPb00HU/nl_player_spotlight_-_may_23_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_spotlight_-_may_23_2012.html Player Commentary Wed, 23 May 2012 00:02:02 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_spotlight_-_may_23_2012.html Matt Adams - Matt Adams is likely to start at 1B for the Cards for at least the next week-plus as the Cards deal with their latest run of injuries. Adams is a 2009 draftee that has done nothing but hit (and hit with increasing power at every level) at every stop in the minors. His contact issues are surprisingly muted for an aggressive hitter just three years into his pro career, and the power numbers have been impressive enough the past few seasons that I would be comfortable slotting him right into a starting lineup in most leagues right off the bat. The catch here is that Allen Craig's return may very well see Adams shipped right back to AAA unless he has a fantastic 10-game trial, so in reality his value is more of the long-term variety right now, but either way he does merit a look in most formats. Tyler Greene - Greene homered again last night, giving him 3 2B, a 3B, and a HR in his last five games. Huge K rates have always been a problem for Greene, but he does have legitimate power and speed. 20/20 might be a stretch, but 15/20 is certainly possible if he remains the preferred starter, and as a 2B that's enough production to start in most formats. He has hit close to .300 for parts of the past three seasons at AAA and is posting an LD rate above 30% this year for the Cards, so there may even be a bit of upside on the AVG front as well. Ian Desmond - Desmond has hit in 10 of 11 after a single and a homer last night, and he's managed 5 2B and 3 HR in his past ten games. Desmond isn't walking at all, so I like the recent decision to move him down to the #5 slot in the lineup, where he'll obviously see more RBI chances. He's already one HR away from last season's total, and at age 26 he is at the point where a power spike would be appropriate. It's eminently possible that Desmond could develop into a 20/20 player this season, but the lack of plate discipline will likely put a ceiling on his contributions in the AVG category. He's still a solid solution at SS, and is likely to remain so for the better part of this decade. Josh Bell - Josh Bell is apparently the new starting 3B for Arizona, as even a .577 SLG couldn't save Cody Ransom from being designated. It's interesting that Arizona cited Bell's ability to make contact as the reason for the change at 3B, as that has always been Bell's biggest weakness as a hitter. Sure, there's been some improvement this year, but I'm inclined to believe that it's either the influence of Reno or just a small sample size quirk than anything else, as Bell has scuffled with making consistent contact at every level for six years now. He has a bit of pop, and hitting in Arizona may even accentuate that a bit, but I don't expect significant value here at all. Bell might hit enough to be worth a flyer in NL-only leagues, but I think that even that is unlikely. Ryan Roberts will be thrust into a utility role for the time being, playing some 2B, 3B, and OF. Dexter Fowler - I'm not quite sure what to make of the Rockies usage of Fowler thus far in 2012, as the 26 year old has shown improved power and a typically solid OBP despite a poor AVG that has been negatively impacted by some bad luck with BABIP. Because of his difficulties in sustaining playing time, Fowler is likely only worth a starting slot in NL-only formats right now, but what looks like legitimate power improvement makes him a worthwhile reserve in all formats. http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/QvDIeGYwDOw/nl_daily_notes_-_may_22nd_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_daily_notes_-_may_22nd_2012.html Player Commentary Tue, 22 May 2012 07:16:15 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_daily_notes_-_may_22nd_2012.html Felix Hernandez- SEA- Hot- King Felix was back home and took advantage of it. After 2 road starts in which he gave up a total of 10 earned runs over 10.1 IP he handled the Rangers with relative ease in Safeco Park, allowing a single run on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 in 8 IP. Hernandez's home/road splits remain extreme, with a 0.87 ERA in Seattle and a 4.31 ERA away. He is enjoying the benefits of a whopping 93.8% LOB% at home, along with a .247 BABIP while getting whacked with a 69.9% LOB% and .339 BABIP on the road. As regression to the mean occurs his split performances should equalize into a more consistent performance from game to game, wherever that game happens to be played. Tommy Milone- OAK- Hot- Milone was back home and pitched like a Cy Young contender, as he does in Oakland. In the wide expanses of the Coliseum he owns an ERA of 0.60, as opposed to 7.16 in enemy parks. All 6 of his homers allowed have come on the road. Milone's K/9 of 4.99 means that batted balls happen a lot for him and the ample foul territory in Oakland, combined with the good luck of a .184 BABIP at home have driven this Jekyll and Hyde performance. Milone will probably maintain extreme splits throughout the season but regression to the mean at home will make him less valuable even if you pick and choose his starts. Milone is a sell high candidate. Eric Sogard- OAK- Drop Value- Sogard was optioned to AAA Sacramento to make roster space for Coco Crisp. Sogard had horrendous luck in his time with Oakland so far this season, with a BABIP of .135 in 6 ABs. He did hit 2 homers and steal a base, so it looks like his skills could earn him a trip back to the Bay Area as the utility infielder if his luck evens out at AAA and his production follows. Kole Calhoun- LAA- Rookie- Calhoun has put up some impressive numbers in a relatively short time in the minors and earned a call up to the Angels. At AAA so far this season he was hitting .296 with 5 homers and 6 steals in 43 games. This was Calhoun's first taste of pro ball above high A and he has produced. He has enjoyed favorable BABIPs of .342, .362 and .346 over the past 3 seasons. His Batting EYE has dipped from .76 last season to .46 at AAA and that is a concern that he still has some learning to do as far as facing more advanced pitching is concerned. Calhoun is definitely no Mike Trout, but he could be a sleeper in deep leagues to help in the homer and steal categories. Brian Dozier- MIN- Rookie- Minnesota's 2011 Minor League Player of the Year, Dozier hit .277 in camp this spring, .276 at AAA Rochester before being called up earlier this month and .279 as a Twin. That is a kind of consistency but he does have the potential for a higher average. His .18 Batting EYE is far below what he posted in the minors and will likely rise. Dozier may also help in the steal category as he continues to get acclimated to the majors. He swiped 28 bases in the minors a year ago. Dozier has a mature approach to the plate and shouldn't hurt you if you are in need of a SS. If his running game gets untracked he could give a cheap boost in the steal column.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/FkbMO2ZoKi0/al_player_notes_-_may_22nd_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_player_notes_-_may_22nd_2012.html Player Commentary Tue, 22 May 2012 07:07:32 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_player_notes_-_may_22nd_2012.html These are only a few of the players we are covering today. We profile over 100 players everyday in our premium section, become a member today.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/l1zEsizABvI/nl_daily_notes_-_may_21_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_daily_notes_-_may_21_2012.html Player Commentary Sun, 20 May 2012 22:09:49 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_daily_notes_-_may_21_2012.html Sean Marshall (RP - CIN) - Marshall was pulled against the Yankees after giving up a two runs on four hits in just a third of an inning as Jose Arredondo came on for the save. After the game, manager Dusty Baker hinted that Aroldis Chapman could possibly be taking over the closer's role soon. That would certainly be a case of Chapman winning the job rather than Marshall losing it, as the southpaw has put up dominating peripherals but has been victimized by a .432 BABIP entering the game despite allowing line drives on only about an eighth of his balls in play. He would still be worthy of a roster spot if he loses the job, as he provides excellent strikeout value and his ratios will be very good once his BABIP regresses. Christian Friedrich (SP - COL) - After a dominating first two starts, Friedrich was crushed by the Mariners for eight runs on nine hits (one home run) in five innings, walking four and striking out three. It was certainly a setback, but he has a first-round pedigree and good strikeout potential, as he fanned over a batter an inning in his minor league career. However, he served up 31 home runs in 251 innings at AA and AAA, so that will be an issue in Coors Field. He pitches next Friday in Cincinnati and while Great American Ball Park is a launching pad, the Reds have not hit this season. Angel Pagan (OF - SF) - Pagan picked up another two hits to raise his season line to .304/.353/.462, as he has now hit safely in 10 straight games and 30 of his last 31. He came into the game hitting line drives at a 21.3% rate, but a big change has been hitting more ground balls as his GB% is up more than 10% from last season. His speed allows him to beat out grounders as he has five infield hits already, and hitting it on the ground is more beneficial at AT&T Park for a player like him without much power. He's also added eight stolen bases and should be considered a quality option going forward. A.J. Burnett (SP - PIT) - Burnett got decent results against the Tigers, allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings. However, he walked three with only two strikeouts and served up a home run. Detroit's lineup is very tough though (especially against right-handers), and Burnett likely won't face many better the rest of the season. Although his ERA is still an ugly 4.78, that is entirely driven by one disastrous outing against the Cardinals as he has allowed two runs or fewer in his other five starts and owns an impressive 33/10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He should keep it going at home against the Cubs Friday. Ryan Dempster (SP - CHC) - Dempster was unspectacular for the second straight outing, surrendering four runs on seven hits (two home runs) to the White Sox in six innings, walking and punching out three. His strikeout and walk rates have been excellent, but he has given up a line drive on almost 30% of his balls in play coming into the night yet had only allowed a .259 BABIP. He also came into the night having just three percent of his flyballs leave the yard and is a 35-year old who has faded in the second half the last two years. Sell high if you can, although he does have an excellent matchup in Pittsburgh on Friday. ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/BWxrWhq7QSk/nl_player_spotlight_-_may_20_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_spotlight_-_may_20_2012.html Player Commentary Sun, 20 May 2012 21:38:47 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_spotlight_-_may_20_2012.html Alex Rodriguez (3B - NYY): A-Rod took another 0-4 on Sunday and is now down to .270/.368/.399 on the season. The average and on-base percentage aren't particularly of concern for Rodriguez, but the .399 slugging % is eye-opening if not shocking. At 36, going on 37, it's expected to see some slippage in A-Rod's power numbers. Last year his Slugging % dropped below .500 for the first time in 14 years as he finished at .461, but seeing it below .400? That seems like too much. Rodriguez has had trouble getting the ball in the air this year as his 25.9% FB Rate would be a career low by a wide margin (previous 37.2% FB Rate, last yr). While the GB Rate has been in steep decline in recent years (a typical sign of aging) his 22% LD Rate is 8 percentage points above the mark he posted last season. It's likely Rodriguez will experience some regression in his FB Rate over the next few months and when that happens the Slugging % will be on the rise. The whole package is one that still screams age-related decline, but his early season power outage has been over-stated. He'll likely finish somewhere around .270/.365/.445, which even if he can escape the season without injury (missed at least 24 games each of last 4 seasons) will likely result in a decline from last season's pace. Max Scherzer (SP - DET): Max Scherzer is maddening. Despite improving his K% to a phenomenal 24.7% thanks to a swinging strike rate that has risen above 11%, Scherzer entered Sunday's start with a 6.26 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. A .403 BABIP (22% LD Rate allowed) coupled with deterioration in his command (3.89 BB/9) had made Scherzer a highly flammable starting option. Despite the struggles with command Scherzer entered Sunday with a 3.79 xFIP which is in-line with the past three years (3.70, 3.68, 3.82) and suggested his 6.26 ERA was way over-stated. Those who stuck with Scherzer through the messy start were rewarded with perhaps the best start of his professional career on Sunday. Scherzer struck out 15 while allowing just 4 hits, 1 BB, and 2 ER's (both solo HR's) in his 7 innings of work on Sunday. The Pirates were an ideal match for Scherzer's swing and miss-stuff, but there's reason to believe this is the beginning of some improved production. Scherzer's xFIP is now 3.31 and with some better luck on FB's staying in the yard and batted balls finding gloves, Scherzer should be able to work his ERA back down to his usual 3.75-4.00 ERA. While start-to-start will likely be volatile, the overall package should be palatable for fantasy owners. Stick with Scherzer even through the difficult outings and the whole package will likely be worth it by year end. He'll get the Twins in a favorable outing next time out. Mike Napoli (C - TEX): Seven weeks into the 2012 season and Mike Napoli's 2011 season is starting to feel like an outlier. Napoli's .244/.333/.457 line looks remarkably similar to the .251/.346/.485 career line he had prior to last season. Napoli's ISO and BB Rate have both come back down to his career levels and his K Rate has jumped back up to over 30%. Digging in on some of the plate discipline indicators it's hard to see why Napoli's K Rate has expanded so dramatically. He's held onto some of the improvements he made last year in cutting down the swinging strike rate (10.5%, career 11.6%) and his chase rate is right along with his career levels (24.4%, career 23.9%). Pitchers are attacking him more (49.1% of pitches in the strike zone, career 46.5%) than they have in the past which is part of the reason for the increased K Rate and decreased BB Rate, but I think there's some room for improvement based on the stronger contact rates. There's also some additional room for growth in his ISO, but it's starting to look like Napoli's 2011 was an aberration and his 2008-2010 performance is a more reasonable expectation going forward. Mike Trout (OF - LAA): I can't help myself. Trout is one of the most exciting position player prospects I've ever watched. He has so many tools and so many ways he can impact a game that I can't help but feed into and at times drive the hype machine. Those who follow me on twitter (@DrewDinkmeyer) know my infatuation with the 20 year old CF and on Sunday all of his immense talents were on display. Trout went 3-4 with a HR, 2B, 2 BB's, and 2 SB's raising his 2012 line to .355/.420/.605. In just 20 games Trout has already compiled 15 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, and 6 SB's, putting him on pace for an absurd .355-109-29-80-43 over a 145 game season. Certainly it's hard to see how Trout can maintain this pace given he's posting a .426 BABIP and a .250 ISO, but many of the indicators suggest Trout is an elite player. His sub-6.5% swinging strike rate and 20.6% chase rate show the elite plate skills. His 24.5% LD Rate demonstrates his ability to consistently square up balls as does the elevated ISO. It's easy to say Trout isn't going to hold this pace all season, but it's not as easy to project him as a Top 15 OF from here on out; and that's exactly what I'm going to do. Everyone believes Trout will be an elite player and fantasy star some day, but I think we're already there. Jason Kipnis (2B - CLE): As I was doing some research for the Sirius show on Sunday morning, Jason Kipnis' name kept coming up. I was doing work on assessing when growth in indicators become reliable and Kipnis' improvements in his K Rate and his swinging strike rate stood out. Looking back at Kipnis' minor league career (K Rates between 14-18%) make his growth look even more legitimate. That improvement in contact rates should allow Kipnis to post a more competitive batting average than his current .257 suggests. A .273 BABIP has held things down despite a solid 21.8% LD Rate. While posting similar ISO's and K/BB Rates, Kipnis was able to post a .297/.378/.486 minor league line. That expectation may be a bit beyond what Kipnis can produce at the major league level but I think a .280/.355/.465 is completely within reason. Kipnis has been able to produce Top 5 2B value even with some of the bad luck on balls in play early on, giving me reason to think he can hold Top 5 2B value all season long. On pace for a .260-97-22-90-22 season, Kipnis looks pretty legitimate to me. Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @drewdinkmeyer These are only a few of the players we are covering today. We profile over 100 players everyday in our premium section, become a member today.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/UDd-j-TrxH4/al_daily_notes_-_may_21st_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_-_may_21st_2012.html Player Commentary Sun, 20 May 2012 19:16:58 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_-_may_21st_2012.html Brandon Morrow SP (TOR) - Morrow really appears to be putting it all together as he hurled a complete game shutout yesterday in which he struck out 8 and walked just 1. Morrow has been able to find a mix of the high K guy he was the past 2 seasons and the command, pitch to contact guy he tried to be in his first few starts. A lot of Morrow's success has to do with him moving from a 2 pitch guys (fastball/slider) to a 3 pitch guy (fastball/slider/changeup) - something that had to happen in order for him to be more effective with runners on base. This season Morrow is throwing his fastball with the same regularity he has the past 2 years. However, his slider usage has dipped from 26.6% last year to 20.1% this year. Consequently, his changeup usage has gone from 6.2% last year to 13% this year. Just as important as using the changeup more, though, has been the effectiveness of the changeup. In 2010 Morrow also threw his changeup with similar regularity but it scored as -2.10 runs below average per 100 pitches. This season Morrow's changeup has a value of 2.46 runs above average per 100 pitches. Don't expect Morrow to pitch this well all season as his xFIP and FIP are actually right in line with what they were last season when Morrow's ERA was almost 3 full runs higher. Where owners should be encouraged is that the new Morrow appears to be a guy who will be more consistent and a guy who has cured his woes with runners on base by improving and utilizing a 3rd pitch - which will allow him to avoid some of the rotten luck he experienced in 2010 and 2011. Asdrubal Cabrera SS (CLE) - Asdrubal went 1-3 yesterday and hit his 5th homer of the season (also drew a walk). He currently boasts a line of .316/.408/.515. I am really impressed as Asdrubal is showing his breakout campaign from a year ago was no fluke. His .199 ISO is actually higher than last year's .187. Meanwhile, his EYE has drastically improved from .37 to an elite 1.80. That is simply astounding and can be attributed to better control of the strike zone. Asdrubal is chasing pitches outside of the zone just 23.8% of the time, down from 31.4% last season. His swinging strike rate is also way down from 7.4% to 4.2%. One area where many people (myself included) thought Asdrubal might drop off was his HR/FB%, but currently his 13.5 HR/FB% is directly in line with what he posted last season. The LD rate is also very high, and there's not much to pick apart here. Given the outstanding 2011 year and the amazing indicators early on this year, Asdrubal owners should feel very comfortable. Billy Butler 1B (KC) - Butler hit his 8th homer of the season yesterday and is easily on pace to surpass his previous career high of 21 in a season. I am tempted to put Butler in the Adam Jones category; a top prospect guy entering his peak power years (26) who has just figured it out. However, a couple of things stick out to me that make me a little bit more reserved. For starters, both Butler's K% and BB% are at career worsts. One of his main power problems previous seasons was an inability to generate loft, and his FB% is also currently a career worst (just 31.3%). Of the fly balls Butler has hit, many of them have been pop ups as evidenced by a career worst infield fly ball % of 12.5% (career mark is 7.6%). Unlike Jones, Butler's xbh% isn't wildly above his career mark (11% versus 9.3%), and it matches the mark he posted in 2009 when he hit 21 homers. Putting all this evidence together, I think Butler's hot start is more a result of a fluky high HR/FB% than a player breaking out. Butler's current HR/FB% is 20%. His career mark is 10.2%. His HR/FB% last season was 10.4%, and his career high prior to this year is 11.9%. Given the age we can expect some improvement in HR/FB% but not this much. We must be aware that Butler's current HR/FB% is probably not sustainable and masking some disappointing peripherals in terms of plate discipline and loft. Jason Vargas SP (SEA) - Vargas surprisingly gave up just 3 ER in 7 IP in Colorado yesterday as he earned his fifth victory of the season. However, Vargas did not pitch particularly well. His control was good (just 1 walk), but he only struck out one batter and posted just a 29.2 GB%. It's not the first time Vargas has gotten lucky this season as his season ERA of 3.34 is well below his FIP of 4.07. In particular Vargas has been very fortunate on balls in play. His current BABIP of .219 is 58 points below his career mark and is a driving force in current career bests I ERA (3.34) and WHIP (1.02). As Vargas' BABIP normalizes in the near future, look for his ERA and WHIP to rise substantially. He will still make for a good matchups play at home, but he is not the must start guy that his ratios currently suggest. Alex Cobb SP (TB) - Cobb pitched well in his first Major League start of 2012. He allowed 2 ER over 7 IP while striking out 6 and walking 2. Impressively Cobb generated 12 ground ball outs compared to just 2 fly ball outs. Over his last three years in the minors Cobb has struck out more than a batter an inning each year. This season at AAA a 4.14 ERA doesn't scream confidence as he gets the call to fill in the rotation at the ML level for an injured Jeff Niemann. However, his FIP is 2.84 and more indicative of Cobb's skills. Last year Cobb made 9 starts at the ML level. He was decent posting an FIP of 3.61. Cobb's K and BB skills were meh, but his GB% of 54% was an extremely solid skill. Look for Cobb to be a solid pickup in deeper leagues. I like his high GB% and environment to prevent him from being awful, but I also expect he strikes out more batters than he did last season at the ML level. I am expecting a mid-3's ERA with moderate strikeout numbers and a WHIP around 1.3.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/ticdLOtficw/al_daily_notes_-_may_20th_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_-_may_20th_2012.html Player Commentary Sun, 20 May 2012 06:08:07 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/al_daily_notes_-_may_20th_2012.html Jeff Samardzija (SP-CHC)- Samardzjia lost his second game of the season on Friday against the White Sox, but pitched well in the outing. He allowed three runs on six hits (two home runs) with two walks and eight strikeouts in 7.1 innings of work. Samardzjia now has a 3.00 ERA in 51 innings and his FIP (2.97) and xFIP (2.96) indicate that he has earned that number. He came into the game with a 12.9 percent swinging strike rate (the best among starting pitchers in 2012), and his 60.1 first pitch strike rate and 35.8 percent chase rate (both career highs) confirms his 2.82 BB/9 is no fluke. Owners should not have to worry about a regression any time soon, and an ERA below 3.50 to finish the season is looking more and more likely with each passing start. He is a must start in almost every matchup, and surprisingly is available in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues. Heath Bell (RP-MIA)- Bell recorded his fourth save of the season on Friday night against the Indians working a 1-2-3 inning and lowering his ERA to 8.56 for the year. While owners will take any scoreless outing from Bell at this point, his numbers are still very alarming and have not improved over the last few weeks. He came into the game with a dismal 4.9 percent swinging strike rate and his chase rate was hovering just a tad over 20 percent. His inability to get his curveball close to the strike zone has hurt most of his numbers, but his fastball has not generated many swinging strike either. The good news is that Bell still has the closer's role despite the awful month and a half, and it would be hard to imagine him losing the job later considering his performance couldn't have gotten any worse than it did in April. Edwin Jackson (SP-WAS)- Jackson did not earn a decision against the Orioles on Friday despite holding them to one run over eight innings. He struck out eight and allowed five hits and one walk while lowering his ERA to 3.31. Jackson's improved control (1.78 BB/9) and ability to generate weak contact (14.5 percent line drive rate entering Friday's game) has allowed him to get off to one of his best starts to the season. His 66.7 percent first pitch strike percentage suggests this improved walk rate will not see much regression, and a career best 12.8 percent swinging strike rate has allowed Jackson to strike out a career best 8.01 hitters per nine innings. His incorporation of his curveball and improvement of his change-up can help explain his better swinging strike numbers. At 28, it finally looks as if he is starting to put everything together. JD Martinez (LF-HOU)- After a strong two weeks to start the season, Martinez has crashed over the last month. He went hitless in four at-bats against the Rangers on Friday, and struck out three times. His home run total is stuck at three for the season, and his slash line has dropped to .218/.329/.328 for the season. A .264 BABIP and a 21.4 percent strikeout rate have wreaked havoc on Martinez's batting average. His BABIP has been hurt mostly because of a 58.9 percent ground ball rate (tenth highest among qualified hitters). His strikeout rate is due to drop considering his 8.6 percent swinging strike rate is an improvement from last season, and his walk rate has jumped to 14.3 percent as he has improved his chase from 33.6 percent to 24.2 percent. However, if he does not improve his ground ball rate, he could be stuck with a .230 type of average and 10-12 home run until the end of the season. Matt Downs could see some more playing time in the outfield, and a demotion back to the minors could be in Martinez's future if he does not start to improve. Ryan Braun (LF-MIL)- Despite the Brewers getting blown out by the Twins, Braun had a strong day in the batter's box going 3-for-4 with a monstrous home run and two RBI. He now has eleven home runs for the season, and he improved his slash line to .317/.394/.626. Looking at just his numbers for 2012, one would have a hard time believing that Braun went through the most difficult offseason of his career. His .309 ISO is just a point shy of his career best average he posted in his rookie season, and his .436 wOBA is at a career high. Braun's average has dropped from the .330 range because of a drop in his line drive rate from 20.9 to 17.3 percent. However, Braun's fly ball rate has increased to a career best 45.5 percent and coupled with a 22 percent HR/FB rate means that Braun has a legitimate shot to hit 40 home runs this season, which would be a career high. I expect his HR/FB ratio to decrease closer to his 18.2 percent career rate, but a 45.5 percent fly ball rate suggests he should have a new career high in home runs for 2012. ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/FantisticsInsiderBaseball/~3/OYT8vZrKerQ/nl_player_notes-_may_19th_2012.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_notes-_may_19th_2012.html Player Commentary Sat, 19 May 2012 06:37:26 -0700 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2012/05/nl_player_notes-_may_19th_2012.html