Federal Reservations

Fed Takes a Break to Weigh Outlook

plagger — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 06:25:39 +0000

The Federal Reserve is pausing after a six-month campaign to boost growth, while policy makers assess a puzzling economic outlook.

Originally from WSJ.com: Economy

Fed Takes a Break to Weigh Outlook

plagger — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 01:25:48 +0000

The Federal Reserve is pausing after a six-month campaign to boost growth, while policy makers assess a puzzling economic outlook.

Originally from WSJ.com: Economy

The Fed and QE3

plagger — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 23:25:52 +0000

I always read Jon Hilsenrath's articles on the Fed very closely. Right now the Fed seems uncertain about QE3, and the decision remains data dependent (as always) ... from Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Takes a Break To Weigh Outlook
Fed officials meeting next week are unlikely to take any new actions to spur the recovery, and they are likely to emerge with a slightly more upbeat—but still very guarded—assessment of the economy's performance.
...
A big question is whether the Fed will launch a new bond-buying program in an effort to push down already low long-term interest rates.
...
Mr. Bernanke signaled to Congress last week that he had doubts about the sustainability of the employment gains. Fed officials aren't inclined to move while they try to solve the puzzle. "In light of the somewhat different signals received recently from the labor market than from indicators of final demand and production," he said, "it will be especially important to evaluate incoming information to assess the underlying pace of economic recovery."
Several economists still expect QE3 to be announced at one of the two day meetings in April or June - or maybe in Q3.

Goldman Sachs economists wrote on Friday:
We expect that the Fed will ultimately announce a return to balance sheet expansion sometime in the first half of 2012, likely including purchases of mortgagebacked securities (MBS).
And Merrill Lynch noted last week:
In our view, it is wishful thinking to believe the Fed will do QE when the data flow is healthy. We expect renewed QE only after Operation Twist ends in June ... only if the economy is slowing ... Under our growth forecast ... QE3 comes in September.
If the economy slows, and key inflation measures start falling again - then QE3 is very likely. But right now, with most data a little better than expected, and inflation a little higher than the Fed's target, the Fed is back to "wait and see". The next FOMC meeting is on Tuesday March 13th.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending March 2nd
• Schedule for Week of March 4th

Originally from Calculated Risk

Schedule for Week of March 4th

plagger — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 18:25:41 +0000

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending March 2nd

The key report this week is the February employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) scheduled for Friday. Other reports include the February ISM service index on Monday, and the January trade balance report on Friday.

The Federal Reserve will release the Q4 Flow of Funds report on Thursday.

On Thursday, March 8th, the €200bn private sector Greek bond swap is scheduled. Also on the 8th, the ECB holds a rate meeting.

----- Monday, Mar 5th -----
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for a decrease to 56.1 from 56.8 in January. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for January. The consensus is for a 0.9% decline in orders.

----- Tuesday, Mar 6th -----
No Releases Scheduled.

----- Wednesday, Mar 7th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 200,000 payroll jobs added in February, up from the 170,000 reported last month.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for January. The consensus is for a $10.0 billion increase in consumer credit.

----- Thursday, Mar 8th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be unchanged at 351,000.

12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, Mar 9th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for February. The consensus is for an increase of 204,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, down from the 243,000 jobs added in January.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.3%.

This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through January.

The economy has added 3.17 million jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (3.66 million private sector jobs added, and 510 thousand public sector jobs lost).

There are still 5.2 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started. (5.6 million fewer total nonfarm jobs).

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.

Imports stalled in the middle of 2011, but increased towards the end of the year (seasonally adjusted). Exports are well above the pre-recession peak and up 9% compared to December 2010; imports are up about 11% compared to December 2010.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $49.0 billion in January, up from from $48.8 billion in December. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for January. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.

Originally from Calculated Risk

Bond Report: Treasurys rise on U.S. data, technicals

plagger — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 23:27:26 +0000

Treasury prices rise on Friday, pushing yields lower, as a lack of fresh U.S. economic data allows investors to rethink Thursday’s, and the Fed continues with Operation Twist.

Originally from MarketWatch

Bond Report: Treasurys rise on U.S. data, technicals

plagger — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 20:25:59 +0000

Treasury prices rise on Friday, pushing yields lower, as a lack of fresh U.S. economic data allows investors to rethink Thursday’s, and the Fed swaps out

Originally from MarketWatch

Insight: Wall Street, Fed face off over physical commodities

plagger — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 19:27:36 +0000

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's biggest banks are locked in an increasingly frantic struggle with the Federal Reserve over the right to retain the jewels of their commodity trading empires: warehouses, storage tanks and other hard assets worth billions of dollars.

Originally from Reuters: Business News

Fed pushes back comment period on capital rules

plagger — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 19:27:22 +0000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve extended by a month the period to comment on the prudential standards and early remediation requirements of the Dodd-Frank bank reform law. Commenters now have until April 30 to submit views on issues including capital, liquidity, single counterparty credit limits, stress testing, risk management, and early remediation requirements.

Originally from MarketWatch

Keep ‘Applying Stimulus Vigorously’: Fed’s Williams

plagger — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 15:27:25 +0000

U.S. economic growth has been anemic and the Federal Reserve must "keep applying monetary policy stimulus vigorously," San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday.

Originally from All News, Video and Posts related to TOPIC: Federal Reserve

Huge Problem With Bernanke’s 2% Inflation Target Explained in Graphs

plagger — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 13:25:39 +0000

Ben Bernanke wants prices to rise 2%. There are numerous problems with such a proposal, the first being increases in money supply sometimes lead to asset bubbles and not increases in prices of consumer goods. Indeed the Fed completely ignored (if not encouraged) the housing bubble because home prices are not in the CPI. A housing bubble and a housing crash was the result.

Originally from The Market Oracle