I’m not sure I even need to recap this game, as the game itself seemed to recap most of this blog’s major themes of this season, and of seasons past. I’ll take a few days to reflect before I decide on the form of my next post.

A word on the upcoming conference finals, in case I don’t post before they start: I don’t think the Spurs will even be competitive against the Grizzlies. I think we all saw what happened to Tim Duncan in this series. I can’t even imagine the price a completely healthy and rested Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will exact from him. And I cringe at the thought of what Mike Conley will do to him in the pick and roll.

Manu Ginobili also appears to be at the end of his effective career. And the still hobbled Tony Parker is running on fumes. In my mind it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that this proud Spurs franchise will get swept.

The best Conference Final will be in the East. The Pacers are built a lot like the Bulls, only better. Dwayne Wade is once again playing on one leg. And the Pacers have a blossoming superstar of their own in two-way small forward Paul George. What he has done defensively to Carmelo Anthony in one on one coverage has been incredible. He should give LeBron James every bit as much trouble as Luol Deng gave him last year.

That series is going to be a war. Playoff basketball at its best.

The two year run of Nellieball NBA champions is about to be put to a severe test. Two superb conventionally-built teams, manned in the middle by two of the best two-way seven-footers in the league, are lined up and ready to take their turns trying to pound the vulnerable Heat to a pulp.

That’s a joke of course. But Bogut and Curry are working on one leg. Manu Ginobili is working on no legs. His legs are so bad that he can’t even hit a free throw. Tim Duncan looked like he turned into an 80 year old man between the first and second quarter. When is the last time you saw him brick a layup, and then airball a 15 footer, on consecutive possessions? Tony Parker took a quarter to get his body working. He said post-game that everything hurt to start the game, his calf, his Achilles, and that, “I felt like I was 50.” Tiago Splitter looks nothing like the player he was during the regular season. He’s maybe 70%.

All of the role players on both teams have been forced to step up. This series looks less like Warriors-Spurs right now than it does a rookie-sophomore game. And the sophomores are winning.

Otherwise, nothing much has changed in the series from the last game. The return of Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup, and Popovich’s defensive adjustment on Stephen Curry (discussed next) have put the Spurs in control. Even if Bogut and Curry get healthy in a hurry for next game, it’s difficult to see what Mark Jackson can do to change the dynamic. He appears out of answers.

Curry: It’s obvious his ankle is a big problem, and Pop is making it worse by attacking him on the defensive end. But I don’t think it’s his only problem. As I noted in my recap of Game 2, Pop found a defense in the second half of that game that worked against Curry, before he injured his ankle. He used Danny Green to guard Curry from the side, rather than in front. Taking away his three point shot completely, and inviting him to drive into a trap. Curry shot 3-11, 0-1 from three, in the second half of Game 2.

I called this defense then a “worrisome development,” and it has proved just that. By my count, Curry had three open shots all night long. Pop has figured out a way to deny Curry the three point shot without actually blitzing, and Mark Jackson has yet to figure out a counter. He may, in fact, be helpless to figure out a counter.

Because of Andrew Bogut. And because of the injury to David Lee.

A major reason that Pop’s defense is so successful against Curry is that he has no real options off the pick and roll. His number one option is to jack a quick shot over a closing trap. His second option is to dribble into another trap, and try to get a runner off over a 7 footer.

His third option, which should be his main option against this defense, is to pass to the roll man. The only problem with that is that his roll man is Andrew Bogut, and Bogut is helpless to create offense against the Spurs defense. He can’t shoot the 15 footer. He can’t beat the Spurs rotation to the basket. And because his roll is no threat, the other Spurs defenders can stick like glue to their men on the wings. Giving Curry no option at all to find a three point shooter.

One of the very biggest differences between the Spurs and the Warriors is that the Spurs have two-way big men, and the Warriors don’t. The Warriors are playing 4 on 5 on the offensive end.

Do they miss David Lee yet?

Jack: Warriors fans will be all over his turnovers. I will note this: like Curry, he’s being trapped on the pick and roll, which makes even good ballhandlers turnover prone, and that’s down to Andrew Bogut’s inability to play on offense.

It’s also down to the coaches, as Jerry West says. It may be time to simply get Bogut out of the way, and iso Curry and Jack at the top, as the Warriors did to beat Denver’s blitz. Remember that?

Bogut: It’s possible he tweaked his ankle, by landing on Splitter’s foot in the first quarter. It’s also possible that, like Game 5 against Denver, his ankle was killing him before the game started, and he took the game off.

Whichever is the case, Bogut was awful in this game. Most of the time, didn’t even attempt to guard the pick and roll. Left Duncan completely unguarded in the key. Couldn’t move laterally at all to challenge layups. Not a presence on the boards.

Assuming they have to choose, should the Warriors shoot him up for Game 6, or wait until a possible Game 7? I think they’ll opt for Game 6, in front of the home crowd.

I expect Bogut to come out for Game 6 like he did in Game 6 against Denver. As for how he finishes, let’s hope Mark Jackson’s god keeps his hands on him.

Jefferson: He looks pretty darn good in his minutes to me. Like a veteran. Do you have the feeling he could have had a bigger role this season? Given David Lee a breather at stretch-four? Helped the Warriors win some games?

One of the biggest mysteries of this season, that was left completely unexplored by the beat writers. $10 million, left on the bench to rot.

There was a Rookie of the Year contest to consider, I guess.

Thompson: He’s simply not being left open, and he’s not being given the ball to create his own shot. Mark Jackson is going to the Barnes mismatch for that.

Mitch Richmond had something to say about this on the Warriors post-game show. He doesn’t think Thompson’s shooting woes are entirely his fault, because he’s been the forgotten man. He thinks the Warriors need to put the ball in his hands more, and get him going.

There might be some truth to that.

Corey Joseph: Gave the Spurs some big minutes in this game in relief of Tony Parker. Pop reached into the D-Leagues on March 1 for Joseph, in response to the injury devastation to the Spurs backcourt. And he’s become a part of the Spurs’ playoff rotation.

Once Brandon Rush went down, do you think the Warriors could have used Joseph, or a player like him, to back up Curry and Jack? Cut down their minutes? Keep them fresh for the playoffs? Step up big in the playoffs in the event of injury?

That’s not how Joe Lacob operates. For the third straight season, Lacob stripped the Warriors bench at the trading deadline. Do you think the Warriors could have used Charles Jenkins in the last few games?

Hey, at least we got under the cap.

Kawhi Leonard: He’s shooting 58% in this series (chiefly with Barnes guarding him). But I don’t watch him for his offense.

I watch him for his defense, which is out of this world. I would love to see the stats on what Thompson and Curry are shooting when guarded by him. I’m guessing it’s well below 40%.

What a player, and a big reason why the Spurs are currently in control of this series.

Two-way wings are what win in the NBA. Whether you build your team conventionally, like Memphis and Indiana, or as a Nellieball team, like Miami, OKC, and Denver, they are not an option. They are essential.

Barnes: Had a genuinely good offensive game, probably his best so far as a Warrior. Still covered by the Spurs’ worst defender for most of the game (whether that be Parker, Neal, or Bonner) — still single-covered by Pop (Pop is by his coverage essentially daring the Warriors to beat them with Barnes) — Barnes responded with a coolly efficient 10-18 for 25 points, and only one turnover. Instead of validating the Spurs defense with a godawful 9-26 and 4 TO performance, he punished the Spurs defense for disrespecting him, and just possibly gave Pop something to think about going into Game 6.

I took some heat for pointing out Barnes’ inefficiency in his last game. Let me ask those who criticized me something: In the Pacers-Knicks game played earlier tonight, Carmelo Anthony shot 9-23 for 24 points, and JR Smith shot 7-22 for 19 points, not against Tony Parker and Matt Bonner, but against the best defense in the entire league. Do you think the Knicks’ PR department splashed “Melo and JR Shoot Lights Out!” all over their post-game show?

Of course they didn’t. Because that would be an insult to their fans’ intelligence.

This was the first time all season that I felt that Barnes looked truly comfortable in isolation. As Jim Barnett noted post-game, he took his time and surveyed the defense before deciding what he wanted to do. There was very little forcing. He even scored efficiently over Danny Green, on the few possessions Green picked him up. Progress.

Can you imagine what it would mean to the Warriors if Barnes were able to force either Leonard or Green off of Curry or Thompson, in order to guard him? I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that happens, but it is Barnes’ job to make it happen. Or to at least give Pop a headache thinking about it.

Or how about forcing Pop to start sending double teams again, as he did in Games 1-3? To give Curry and Thompson a chance of finding a crack of daylight in the black night of the Spurs’ smothering defense. That is Harrison Barnes’ job, when he finds himself being single-covered by Tony Parker.

On the defensive end… well, I’ll just point out once again that there are light years between Barnes and the Spurs wings Leonard and Green on that end. But I did notice him help turn Tony Parker over once, and block his shot to end the second half. I believe that’s his first block of the series. Progress.

(You see how I did that?)

This was a win notable for physical courage and sheer determination. It was more like watching the 15th round of a heavyweight prize fight than a basketball game.

But a seasoned NBA playoff watcher’s story line to this game would be far more cynical than those above. It would be something like this: In a must win home game for the Warriors, and a throwaway road game for the Spurs — a game in which the home team typically dominates — the Warriors barely survived. The Spurs were road-weary, unmotivated on the glass, unable to hit a shot, nor even a free throw. (The Spurs were 14-25 on FTs, 56% in this game. They were 4th in the league at 78.7% during the regular season, one notch better than the Warriors.) And yet the game was tied at the end of regulation. If anything, this game made it even more clear that the Spurs are currently in control of this series.

Perhaps the most important story line of this game — and certainly one that Warriors fans should hope is true — is that it bought some time for Stephen Curry’s ankle to heal. Because barring his miraculous return to health, and another playoff performance for the ages, I can’t see the Warriors stealing another game in San Antonio.

JACK!: Jack had a JACK! game. He carried the Warriors, as the primary ball-handler throughout. Hit big shot after big shot in the second half.

Spent a lot of time guarding Tony Parker, which was an interesting adjustment on Mark Jackson’s part. By setting Parker up further from the rim, Pop took away Klay Thompson’s effectiveness. Jack can’t challenge Parker’s shot as well as Klay, but he can make Parker work harder to shake free.

Warriors fans are out of their minds in their criticism of Jarrett Jack. He’s not a perfect player, by any means. But he’s a damn good one.

Metta World Peace recently tweeted that Jack is a top ten point guard in the league. I think that’s about right.

A top ten point guard who will be too expensive for the capped-out Joe Lacob next year. And too much in the way of Harrison Barnes.

Curry: I’m just beyond sad to see this great player hobbled again. And in particular that Warriors fans and the world will most likely be denied the chance to see him try to carry the Warriors in the meaningful Game 5.

How many players could hit 5 threes on one leg?

Check out that clutch right-handed runner he hit in crunchtime. He wrong-footed it, off his healthy right foot. One of the greatest talents to ever set foot on the hardwood.

David Lee: Every time Lee takes the court, I have to admit I think about RG3, and how outraged at Mike Shanahan I was during that game. But six specialists and a bishop have said it’s OK for him to play, so I guess it must be OK.

In this game, his performance was much more than inspirational. Due to early foul trouble on Bogut and Ezeli, the Warriors were desperate for his minutes.

All those members of the bellowing herd who think David Lee is a “terrible” defender, owe it to him to replay the first 6 defensive possessions he played in this game, in which the Spurs were held scoreless.

David Lee doesn’t defend the rim. He’s not a shotblocker. But the simple fact of the matter is that Lee is a very decent defender, mano a mano, against opposing big men in the post. He’s proven that against Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Blake Griffin and numerous others. And he showed it again, last night, on one leg.

And there’s something else I’d like to ask the bellowing herd: Is defensive rebounding a part of playing defense? Ending a defensive possession with a rebound?

I think some guys who played with Dennis Rodman might have an opinion on that.

Barnes Shoots Lights Out! That was the graphic the Warriors PR department pasted onto the post-game show. Really? I have to confess, I wasn’t nearly as impressed as they wanted me to be by his 9-26 shooting. Barnes made just enough buckets to keep the Warriors in this game, but it’s hilarious to me that anyone would call this a good performance, let alone the performance of Barnes’ young life.

Barnes was nearly always being guarded by the worst Spurs defender on the court, whether Parker, Neal or Bonner. And for some reason, Pop left him alone in isolation. He had been trapping Barnes, to great effect, in all the previous games. (Was this a head-game? Will he revert to trapping Barnes in Game 5? Or was he simply trying to induce a 9-26 performance?)

All alone in isolation, Barnes managed to get to the rim a couple of times. Particularly against Bonner, which is a great matchup for him. But against the Spurs point guards he generally looked terrible. Spinning, off-balance jumpers. Poor decisions. 4 TOs.

He looked even worse on defense. None of the Spurs could make a shot, of course,  but when either Green or Leonard decided to take it to the rim, they went right by him. He can’t stay in front of anyone. Which was probably on his mind when Ginobili broke his ankles at 0:20 4th quarter, and he fell on his ass. Ginobili missed the wide open three to win the game, as Barnes watched from a seat on the floor.

Barnes did grab 10 rebounds, in a game where rebounds were raining, but most were uncontested, in a game in which the Spurs didn’t expend much energy on the offensive boards. One rebound that was very much contested occurred in crunchtime at 4:50 4Q: Leonard simply threw Barnes to the ground for an offensive rebound and put back.

The great Hubie Brown weighed in on that one: “Absolutely inexcusable!”

I know I’m gonna get a lot of hate mail for this evaluation of Barnes’ game. Trust me, I know the kid is only 20 years old, and has a lot of room to grow, and a lot of years in which to grow. But until that happens, is it OK if I just tell it like it is? I’m not selling season tickets on this blog.

Here’s something to show I’m not a complete Grinch: One area in which Barnes has excelled in these playoffs is at the free throw line, where I believe he’s shooting well over 90%, 7-7 in this game, and looking completely unflappable. Not bad, for a player who shot 76% on FTs in the regular season.

If these playoffs have proven anything about Barnes’ game, it’s that he has ice water in his veins.

Klay: I understand Mark Jackson’ game plan to attack the Spurs’ weakest defensive link. But that clutch drive and running banker Klay hit over Leonard at 0:30 4Q really showed me something.

I’d rather put the ball in Klay’s hands against Leonard and Green, than in Barnes’ hands against Tony Parker. I think this great player could do better than 9-26.

Landry: One of the best 2-9 performances you’ll ever see. His defense against Tim Duncan was superb, one of the most surprising things about this game.

Bogut: Fought through silly first half foul trouble to have a big impact in the second half. He was particularly good in one on one defense against Tim Duncan. Or maybe Duncan was just busy laying an egg. I’m not altogether certain which is most true, but Game 5 in San Antonio will probably provide a clue.

Bogut also owned the defensive glass, with 18 rebounds in 28 minutes.

As big as Bogut played in this game, though, I saw some signs for concern going forward. For instance, I thought there were signs that Bogut didn’t feel great on his ankle. Like that play at 8:00 3Q, where he got the offensive rebound and had a wide open dunk at the rim. Instead of leaping, he flipped up a soft two-handed bowl of mess. That was followed by his failure to get up to catch Curry’s alley-oop at 5:00 4Q.

Speaking of his ankle, have you noticed how the Warriors have gone dark on the subject of his injections? I intended to predict that, after his spontaneous admission in the afterglow of the Warriors Round One victory, but it slipped my mind. So I’ll say it now: you will hear no more about Bogut’s injections for the rest of the playoffs, even though we are hearing about Curry’s.

Another thing that should be extremely concerning to the Warriors is Bogut’s complete inability to cover the Spurs’ pick and roll. He hates coming out to pick up the guards. That actually didn’t hurt the Warriors too much in this game, as Parker missed more than half of his wide open shots. But I’m not sure you can count on that continuing in Game 5.

When he is pressured by made shots to try coming out a little further, he renders himself helpless against the drive. Both Parker and Ginobili burned him on drives in this game.

A few signature plays to check out:

• 10:00 3Q, a high pick for Parker out at the three point line leaves Bogut high and dry in no man’s land.
• Starting at 6:25 4th Q, Ginobili runs two straight pick and rolls against Bogut. One results in a wide open three, the other in a layup.
• 0:40 4th Q Parker cans the second of two straight wide open jumpers over Bogut.

As Mark Jackson loves to say, “It’s a make or miss league.” And in this game the Spurs missed. But it remains true that Bogut’s pick and roll coverage leaves the Warriors completely at the mercy of Parker and Ginobili’s ability to hit wide open shots.

If the Warriors are going to steal Game 5 in San Antonio, Bogut will have to have a more active game. Better than this one. It might be time for another injection.

On a slightly different topic, Magic Johnson made a very curious comment at halftime in this game. He said:

This summer, Golden State, if they want to be a championship team, they got to get a post player who can score down low.

I had two immediate thoughts about this. The first was: Huh? Doesn’t Magic realize that the Warriors have Andrew Bogut? To which the answer is yes, of course he does. So what is he saying? Apparently, Magic Johnson considers Bogut to be an extremely limited offensive player, incapable of playing in the low post. A one-way player who’s not championship caliber. Either that, or he doesn’t believe Bogut will be around next year.

My second thought was: Huh? Didn’t Magic watch the last two Finals? Did the Mavs or the Heat ever throw it into the low post? Did the Thunder?

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers play the kind of basketball that Magic Johnson and Joe Lacob recognize. But the other contenders in today’s NBA are working from a completely different model.

The Nellieball model.

These are a few of the adjustments that Pop has made in this series, and in this game in particular, that allowed the Spurs to steal this Game 3 on the Warriors home court:

1) Go Big or Go Home: In my preview to this game, I predicted that Pop would return Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup, and fairly accurately forecast the many likely results of this move. Rather than restate them in depth here, I’ll let you check out my preview if you’re interested.

But here’s the pocket version:

The defense and rebounds obsessed Warriors head coach matched up big with Splitter and Duncan, by moving Ezeli into the starting lineup, and Draymond Green out. And there went the Warriors’ fast break, there went their spacing, there went their ability to get Curry and Thompson open looks. A 23 point first quarter was the natural result, that left the Warriors fighting from behind the whole game.

On the other side of the court, the Spurs used their big lineup to squeeze the air out the ball, control the Warriors fast break, and limit the Warriors possessions.

 2) Eliminate the Bonner-Draymond Green mismatch that hurt the Spurs, and create the Diaw-Green mismatch in the Spurs favor:

Bonner against Green didn’t work for the Spurs, so Pop immediately went away from it. He forced Green out of the starting lineup, and matched up Boris Diaw against him on the second unit.

You saw the result. Diaw took Green down into the low post for three buckets. Eliminated Green’s quickness advantage, and exploited his size deficiency.

Bonner saw some minutes, but only against bigger players (like Bogut, Lee and Landry), that he could both defend and on offense, pull out of the lane to guard him at the three point line. He didn’t knock down his open threes in this game, but if he had, his minutes would have been effective.

3) Defense on Stephen Curry: The ESPN crew noted that Curry hasn’t been shooting well since his 54 minute Game 1, and wondered if it took too much out of him. Mark Jackson stated post-game that “it’s a make or miss league,” and Curry and Thompson just missed shots.

Baloney.

What has happened to Curry, as I noted in my recap of the last game, is that Pop made a brilliant adjustment to his defense. He is no longer allowing Curry to set up camp at the three point line, either in isolation or in pick and roll. The Spurs are forcing him to either give up the ball, or dribble into two point territory.

How are they doing this? Not by blitzing, which was the strategy employed by George Karl, that Curry and the Warriors ultimately beat with a spread floor and Curry’s great playmaking ability.

Tony Parker, who opened the first and third quarters on Curry, is picking him up above the three point line, and forcing him side-to-side. This denies Curry his favorite shot, the step-back.

Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are picking him up somewhat later, but also forcing him side-to-side, instead of face-guarding. This forces Curry to drive the ball, and as soon as he nears the basket, a Spurs big man steps up to block his path.

On pick and roll, and this was new this game, the Spurs big men weren’t exactly blitzing, but they weren’t sagging off either. They were expecting Curry to pull up for the jumper, and they were right in his face when he complied.

Curry missed a few open shots in this game, but in reality got very few open looks. The Spurs were totally focused on denying his three point shot.

Defense on Klay Thompson: Klay was guarded extremely closely by Green and Leonard in this game. Unlike in the last game, they never left him open, and their length made it tough for him. As a result, like Curry, he wound up forcing some bad shots.

Squeezing the Air out of the Ball: On offense, the Spurs squeezed the air out of the ball, playing deliberate half-court offense to slow the tempo of the game. They pounded the ball inside, and attacked the offensive boards. Their great floor balance allowed them to play great transition defense.

Running Curry and Thompson ragged: In the course of running their offense, the Spurs made sure to use Parker and Green to run Curry and Thompson through multiple screens, every trip down.

Clever.

Denying the transition three: Can you remember a transition three in this game? The shot that killed the Spurs in the first two games? Pop made a brilliant adjustment to deny this shot to Curry and Thompson:

If you rewind the tape, you will see Duncan and Splitter lingering to pick up and trap Curry and Thompson at the three point line in transition, instead of running straight back as usual to take their post in the lane.

They were aided in this, of course, by the slowness of Andrew Bogut getting up the court.

The Tony Parker Adjustment: In another brilliant move, Pop eliminated the advantage of Klay Thompson’s length in defending Tony Parker.

How? By simply moving Parker, and the high pick, further out on the floor. In the first two games, the Spurs were setting that pick around the free throw line. In this game, it was being set closer to the three point line.

This gave Parker a lot more space to use his quickness to separate himself from Klay. It also completely removed him from the reach of Andrew Bogut, who is helpless to defend pick and roll that far out on the floor.

And in this game at least, Parker relentlessly knocked down the shots that are a little longer than what he likes to take. Including a couple of big threes.

Can Klay Thompson really guard Tony Parker? I think Pop supplied the answer to that question in this game. As Jerry West might put it, “that was on the coaches.”

Hack-a-Bogut: Not new this game, but completely devastating. Jackson was again reluctant to pull Bogut, and it cost him a possession, as Bogut missed 3 out of 4.

Here’s a cold hard truth about Bogut: his free throw shooting will not get better. It’s a result of his chronically arthritic right elbow.

Which means that he cannot be played at the end of games.

Mark Jackson’s Response: To his credit, Jackson replaced Ezeli with Carl Landry to start the third quarter, to give the Warriors some much needed floor spacing and offense. And more speed on the break. Landry has done a much better job running the floor in these playoffs than in the regular season.

And for much of this game, Landry was surprisingly effective. In crunchtime, though, Duncan put him in the grinder.

One wonders, though, if this is the best adjustment that Jackson could have made. Did he need to make an adjustment at all? Does he actually need to match up big against the Splitter and Duncan front line all of the time? Or should he actually try spreading the floor against them, and running?

Jim Barnett stated the problem in sharp terms, post-game: “This team cannot afford to play halfcourt basketball against the Spurs.”

Food for thought.

Calling David Lee: True to form, the ignorati at the San Jose Mercury News seized upon the Warriors’ success against the crippled and smallball Nuggets, and the crippled and smallball Spurs of the first two games, to bray to the world that the Warriors are “better without David Lee.”

This game put the lie to that, didn’t it? Do you think the Warriors could have used Lee to start the first and third quarters against Splitter and Duncan? Pull them out of the lane a bit? Give Curry something to work with in the pick and roll? Beat them downcourt in transition?

A large part of the reason why the Spurs defense is so effective on Curry, is that they don’t need to worry about guarding the Warriors’ bigs in pick and roll. When Curry passes them the ball, there is no worry about them shooting the 18 footer. And the Spurs have plenty of time to rotate if they drive the lane.

Lee punishes the blitz and the hedge. He hits that 18 footer. He drives the lane at speed and either gets a look at the rim, or finds an open man at the three point line.

And how about in crunch-time, when Hack-a-Bogut removes the Warriors big man from the floor? Who do you want at crunch-time center, running pick and roll with Curry and Jack, the best pick and roll center in the NBA, or Carl Landry?

Here’s the truth about David Lee. Against conventional front lines, he’s a heck of a power forward.  But like every other conventional power forward in the league, he struggles on defense against stretch-fours. And when Bogut is playing well, and Mark Jackson has suddenly discovered, for the first time all season, that Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green are actually effective stretch-fours themselves, it might be true that the Warriors match up better against smallball teams without Lee at power forward.

Which is not to say they wouldn’t match up well playing smallball with Lee at center, in crunch-time. His best position, according to Don Nelson. The position at which he earned two All-Star selections, and carried this Warriors team into the post-season.

The great Hubie Brown summed it up well during the ESPN broadcast. People should stop focusing on all the things that Lee doesn’t do, and think a little bit more about all of the things that he does do. He’s one of the best players in the NBA, and the Warriors miss him terribly.

Tim Duncan is still one of the great offensive big men in the game, but Bogut and Ezeli’s ability to guard him one-on-one takes away a lot of his value to his team. Now he’s just a semi-efficient scorer of two point buckets, and not the team facilitator of layups and open threes that he can be when double-teamed.

What can Popovich do about this? What is the correct strategy for a team that is facing a major deficit in offensive talent?  

The correct strategy is to limit the other team’s offensive possessions. To get bigger, to crash the offensive boards, and to attempt to slow the pace to a crawl. To get into crunch time with the game still close, and then hope you can execute your inside game more efficiently than the Warriors can run their offense.

This must be a bit of a through the looking-glass experience for Pop. Because for several years, as Duncan has aged and his role diminished, it has been the Spurs that have been playing Nellieball, pushing the tempo, and trying to fast break and three-point shoot other teams into submission. That won’t work for the Spurs in this series. The newly Nellieball Warriors have flipped the switch on them. They are better at the Spurs’ game than the Spurs themselves.

I think Pop is too great a coach not to realize this. Which is why I expect a major adjustment from him in Game 3 or 4.

Go Big or Go Home: I expect Pop to return Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup as soon as possible, and ride him as much as he can. This could help the Spurs in several ways:

1) Force the Warriors to take talent off the floor: Jackson is likely to match up big against Splitter and Duncan, with Ezeli starting at four as he did in Game 1. While I love Ezeli as a role-playing center, he is clearly not a talented power forward. Can’t spread the floor, can’t facilitate, not a scorer. Putting Ezeli on the floor, and removing Draymond Green to the bench, takes a lot of offensive talent off the floor for the Warriors, and eliminates the mismatch of Green on Bonner that hurt the Spurs.

The more the Spurs can force Ezeli and Landry onto the court, and Green off, the better off they’ll be. Draymond Green has been a force in this series.

2) Makes the Warriors skill players that much easier to guard: because they will no longer have a spread floor to work with.

3) Take away possessions from the Warriors by offensive rebounding: We saw this begin in Game 3, where the Spurs were far more aggressive going to the offensive glass. With Duncan and Splitter crashing the glass, the Warriors’ big men will have their hands full. That may free Kawhi Leonard to slip in for some easy putbacks.

4) Use the low post game: By alternating Duncan and Splitter in the post, the Spurs can slow the pace of the game considerably. When lowering the opposing team’s possessions is a necessity, this is a good strategy.

5) Make the Warriors play half court basketball, by taking away their fastbreak and early offense: Offensive rebounding can nullify a fastbreak. That’s how the Bird Celtics competed with the Showtime Lakers.

Obviously, the Warriors will be far less fast down court with two big men on the floor. And obviously, the more they have to concentrate on helping out on the defensive glass, the less able they are to leak out. Harrison Barnes, in particular, will be preoccupied with boxing out Leonard.

The low post game, if converted at a reasonable rate, can also take away the fastbreak. It might be overall less efficient than shooting threes, but it does put the ball through the net more frequently. The Warriors can’t run when they’re taking the ball out of the net.

6) Get the Warriors in foul trouble, and get into the penalty: The benefits of getting Bogut and Ezeli into foul trouble are obvious.

What’s not so obvious is that if the Spurs can get into the penalty early, they can slow the Warriors fast break. You cannot run after free throws, even if they miss.

7) Wear Bogut’s ankle down: You may have noticed this season that the Warriors frequently hid Bogut from the big centers he should have been guarding. It was David Lee, for instance, that guarded Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins. The official reason was that the Warriors didn’t want Bogut to be pulled out of the lane, which makes some sense.

But I also think it was clear they were protecting Bogut’s ankle. It clearly pained him to bang with opposing bigs.

The more the Spurs can force Bogut to bang with Splitter the better for them.

Matchups: Danny Green will be guarding Curry, and forcing him right, as we saw in Game 2.

Pop will try to get away with guarding Barnes with Tony Parker as much as possible. It’s punishing for Parker, but Barnes’ iso’s have clearly been the Warriors least efficient offense.

Bonner is likely done for the series. Draymond is kryptonite for him. When the Spurs go small, it will likely be with Leonard at the four.

Mark Jackson will try to punish Tony Parker wherever he is on the court. You can predict which Warriors player will get the ball by whom Parker is guarding.

The Spurs X-Factor: Gary Neal figures to get more playing time going forward, because the Spurs desperately need to get quicker on the floor, and to get some scoring.

The Warriors have struggled against small and quick shooting guards this season (Monta, Reddick). Neal is a streaky shooter who can take over a game. With Ginobili effectively MIA, the Spurs badly need Neal to get hot.

The Over/Under: I picked up the free money on the over in Game 1, when both teams were obviously going to go small.

I got out of the way in Game 2 (comment 20), both because the line went up, and Tiago Splitter was returning.

As I now evaluate the series, I have completely changed my mind about this bet. It seems obvious to me now that Popovich must radically change course, and start trying to take the air out of the ball. If that happens, both teams will score less.

The line for Game 3 is currently 203, and I have no interest either way.

The Series: The Warriors are currently +150. That’s a nice price, if you believe that the Warriors are the best team, with home court advantage.

Jump for the reasons why:         

The Myth of Tony Parker: First of all, the Tony Parker we’re seeing right now is not the real Tony Parker, the guy we saw for most of the regular season. Parker had a really bad ankle sprain a few weeks ago, that he will not recover from this year. He is a step slow.

Secondly, Parker struggles against length. That was proven in last year’s playoffs against OKC. The Spurs looked good getting out to a 2-0 lead, then OKC shifted Sefolosha onto him and swept the Spurs out. Why? Because Parker operates in the confined spaces of the paint. He likes getting into the paint on pick and roll, and pulling up for short jumpers, or continuing for layups. Bogut is contesting his layups, and Thompson and Green are denying his short jumpers. 7-17 in this game.

Third, because Parker doesn’t spread the floor, he is always looking to score two points. As the modern theory of basketball (which more and more confirms the validity of Nellieball) is fond of pointing out, even 59% from two is not as efficient as 40% from three.

Tony Parker is NOT as good a point guard as Stephen Curry.

The Myth of Manu Ginobili: One of my favorite players of all time. James Harden before James Harden was James Harden.

Guess what? He doesn’t exist any more. He didn’t exist all season long. Lowest minutes since he was breaking in, plummeting scoring average. Bad shooting percentage. Even his free throws suffered.

Ginobili’s legs are shot. He has hamstring problems in both legs. He’s slow to the hoop, his jump is gone, he can’t feel his three point shot.

And this once all-pro defender can’t be put on Curry.

The Myth of Low Post Basketball: I don’t want to take anything away from Bogut and Ezeli. They were fabulous on Duncan tonight. But the fact of the matter is that low post basketball, as Mike D’Antoni is fond of pointing out, is the least efficient form of basketball there is. It’s turnover prone, and it converts at under 50%, even in the hands of masters.

It is simply not a match for 40% from three, which the Warriors have been producing regularly — against playoff competition — using Nellieball.

Duncan was 9-20 for 23 points in this game. A nice effort. But he’s playing for two, while the Warriors are playing for three.

The Myth of Matt Bonner: This is a little unfair to Bonner. He’s a fine stretch four, a 44% shooter from three, and a very useful player.

Against bigger players. That’s when Bonner is effective, when he’s matched up against conventional fours and fives that don’t want to leave the paint.

But the Nellieball Warriors are not matching up big against Bonner, they’re matching up small. With Draymond Green. And in this matchup, Bonner is transformed into a terrible player. A liability. Green has no problem covering Bonner at the 3 point line, at running him off his preferred shot. And that’s the sum total of his game.

What’s left is an indifferent rebounder and a wretched defender.

Pop gave Bonner a seat on the pine to start the third quarter, going with Kawhi Leonard at stretch four. This may become a theme.

The Myth of Tiago Splitter: Like sprained ankle Kenneth Faried, sprained ankle Tiago Splitter is not Tiago Splitter. He is very likely not to return to full strength in this series.

Tiago Splitter dominates Carl Landry. Carl Landry dominates sprained ankle Tiago Splitter.

The Nellieball Warriors: Enough with the Spurs, why is it that the Warriors are so darn good right now? Why is it that they are a far more dominant team in the playoffs than they were all season long?

This is familiar territory for the readers of this blog. I believe it’s because they are finally, after three long years, matching up small, pushing the tempo, spreading the floor, and playing pick and roll. They are finally playing the system that allows Stephen Curry’s ungodly talents to flourish.

Nellieball.

A lot of people will point to the fact that the stellar defensive play of Andrew Bogut in these playoffs has been equally important to the Warriors’ dominance. And I will absolutely grant that, right up front.

But even on the defensive side, look what happens when you start the Nellieball four Draymond Green alongside Bogut. All of a sudden, and for the first time all season, the Warriors have two all-world defenders on the court. All of a sudden the Warriors can defend the perimeter, as well as the paint.

Even when the Warriors started Barnes at four and Jack in the backcourt, they were a better defensive team. And no, I’m not picking on David Lee, whose man to man defense (against conventional big men, not stretch fours) is severely underrated. It’s because all season long Barnes has been a mediocre to terrible defender of threes. He’s simply a better defender when playing the stretch-four, because of his quickness advantage.

Simply put, since Lee went out, the gains the Warriors have made in quickness have far outweighed what they’ve lost in size on the defensive end. By a large margin.

On the offensive end — forgive me for recapitulating three long years of argument — but this is what Nellieball has done for the Warriors in the playoffs:

Gotten Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson wide open looks at early offense threes. Klay was 8-9 from three in this game, many of which would have had Marcus Thompson yelling “Noooooooooooooo!” earlier in the season, and ranting in his blog about forcing shots and not running offense.

It’s no longer a secret known only to Don Nelson and a handful of acolytes (Greg Popovich and George Karl). Now it’s the stuff of Sloan Conference papers. 40% from three in the open court cannot be defended. 40% from three cannot be outscored. 40% from three is unbeatable.

What else is Nellieball doing for the Warriors? The spread floor in the half court, of course. And what does the spread floor do? Allow the Warriors to run pick and roll for Curry without the danger of getting blitzed. Allow Curry to create in isolation at the three point line. Allow Curry to bomb at will from the three point line. And something else we haven’t seen since his rookie season under Nellie: get into the lane off the dribble.

Turn Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green into better players at the four, in the playoffs, than they were at the three, in the regular season. Make the Warriors unguardable on the perimeter. Get Bogut wide open dunks, which is his best and only offense. Not counting his supreme passing ability, which is also magnified when the floor is spread.

Klay Thompson: I called Stephen Curry a potential Hall of Famer — to much derision –towards the end of his rookie season. And I called Klay Thompson a potential Hall of Famer — to much derision — at a time of this season when it seemed every Warriors fan was down on him.

That’s feltbot’s brand. To be first, out on a limb. And to be right, every single time.

That, and self-congratulatory masturbation. (Comment 1.)

Mark Jackson’s Adjustments: First, he ditched the Festus at four idea in this game, starting Draymond Green at four. A brilliant adjustment, that worked to perfection in two ways:

1. Winning the matchup with Bonner, as discussed above.
2. Allowing Green to switch onto Tony Parker on screens, instead of forcing Klay to chase him. Quite obviously, this helped keep Klay out of foul trouble in this game, and probably kept his legs fresher as well.

Second, to my eye at least, he kept the Warriors in attack mode throughout the fourth quarter, instead of trying to run clock.

Third, although he gave away one possession to Hack-a-Bogut, he got Bogut off the floor immediately, instead of stubbornly resisting it. Next step: anticipating it entirely.

Fourth, when Pop tried to hide Parker on Barnes, he attacked the matchup mercilessly. On the surface, this did not go well for the Warriors. Iso’s and backing down smaller players are the least effective part of Barnes game. He’s extremely prone to being trapped, leading to turnovers and bad shots.

But what it did do is completely gas Parker, if you can trust that shot of him grabbing his shorts under the basket as we went to a commercial timeout.

George Karl was announced as the Coach of the Year today. And it’s hard to argue with the way he had his Nuggets playing before Gallinari, Faried and Lawson got injured. Big late season road wins in OKC and San Antonio with major playoff seeding implications on the line.

Tom Thibodeau has done an extraordinary job with a severely crippled squad. Eric Spoelstra made the radical adjustment to Nellieball, and had the Heat performing at a supreme level.

But there’s been no better coach in the NBA this season than Mark Jackson.

Pop’s Adjustments: First, Pop found a defense in the second half that was extraordinarily effective in containing Curry. Instead of having Danny Green face-guard Curry, and leaving him exposed to Curry’s all-world crossover and step-back, he had Green force Curry side-to-side. Usually to the right, which is a tougher direction from which to square up and pull up for jumpers.

Curry had no alternative but to abandon the three-point line, and drive towards the basket. Where he was picked up and trapped by a bigger help defender.

Curry struggled against this defense in three ways. First, it took away his three point shot. Second, he forced some difficult runners over the defense. And third, he found it tougher to find open teammates.

Now why didn’t George Karl think of that? This is a somewhat worrisome development.

Second, Pop had the Spurs far more aggressive in crashing the offensive boards. Leaving Danny Green on Curry freed up Leonard in this role. This helped get Bogut and Draymond Green in foul trouble.

Pop has one more very obvious adjustment he can make: returning Splitter to the starting lineup, if his health allows. This could radically alter the dynamics between the two teams, simply by forcing Mark Jackson to match up big. It could also put even more pressure on Bogut’s ankle — which didn’t look as good tonight as it did in the previous two games. And it could create foul trouble.

The Series: The Spurs are not fazed in the least by being on the road in the playoffs. I have seen them steal countless Game 3′s after dropping a game at home to inferior teams.

The problem for them is that the Warriors are not an inferior team.

Warriors in six.

Those 8-1 odds a bet on the Warriors is getting look a lot juicier now than they did before this game, don’t they? This game reminds me of the close loss the Warriors suffered in Game 1 against the Nuggets, when you sensed the Nuggets might have their hands full.

It’s obvious now that the Spurs have their hands full as well. Splitter’s still out, and might not even be effective when he returns. Duncan might not be at full strength for Game 2. Bogut is playing like a monster. Parker and Ginobili won’t get any healthier. Thompson looks far more comfortable against Leonard and Green than he did against Iggy. Barnes and Green are unconscious, and a nightmare matchup for Bonner and the Spurs in general. And Stephen Curry is the best player in the series, and completely unguardable.

For three and two-thirds quarters, the Warriors looked like the better team, on the Spurs home floor. The younger, fresher, more confident, better defensive and and better shooting team.

Hmmm.

But of course, that won’t be the story line of this game. So let’s start with that part of the game that will generate all the talk:

The Fourth Quarter Meltdown: After the game, Ginobili was asked how the Spurs managed to come back to tie, when they were down 16 with only 4:30 left to play. He answered that he wasn’t sure, he’d have to go back and look at the tape. And that’s exactly how I felt after the game. Unlike after the Denver game, I had no idea how the Warriors fourth quarter meltdown happened. So I went back and checked the tape. Here’s my break down:

At 4:31, with the score 104-88, Tim Duncan leaves for the locker room to puke his guts out. The Spurs go with a lineup of Diaw C, Leonard PF, Ginobili, Neal, Parker. The Warriors answer with Green C, Barnes 4, Klay Thompson, Jack and Curry. So both teams are extraordinarily small.

• Draymond Green misses a tough up and under at the basket.
• Thompson fouls out forcing Parker baseline. Parker hits both FT. 104 – 90. (Jefferson in for Thompson.)
• Jack iso v Parker, misses mid-range jumper.
• 3:30 Spurs start running high picks for Parker, who beats Barnes for a layup. 104-92.
• TO: Curry penetrates and dishes, but is called for a pass and crash. I’m pretty sure this was a flop, and a terrible call. Curry was under control, and barely touched Neal.
• 3:06 Another pick, another Parker layup around Green. 104-94.
• TO: Jack throws away an attempt to hit Curry on a curl. Leonard converts layup. 104-96.
• Jack iso on Diaw, forces a floater and gets it blocked.
• Green steals, Jefferson fouled on fastbreak layup. Misses both FT.
• 1:41 Leonard hits a three. 104-99.
• High pick for Curry leaves him iso’d v Diaw, has his three blocked.
• 1:18 Parker layup. 104-101. Landry in for Jefferson.
• Landry post-up. Misses midrange jumper, and fouls on the rebound.
• 0:59 Diaw hits both FT. 104-103.
• Curry misses step back over Leonard. Warriors rebound.
• 0:29 Jack isos against Parker, hits midrange jumper. 106-103.
• Bazemore in for Landry.
• 0:22 Danny Green hits an open three. Tied at 106.
• On the final possession of the fourth quarter, Curry isos v Leonard at the top of the key. He beats him off the dribble, and drives the lane. Diaw leaves Green in the corner to block Curry’s path. Curry picks up his dribble, sees Bazemore wide open on the wing, but looks him off and gets trapped. He winds up hoisting a brick as time expires.

So what happened?

This Game v. Denver Game 6: The first thing to note is that this meltdown didn’t resemble the one against Denver at all. Against Denver, the Warriors got into a bit of a panic, and turned the ball over 10 times in the fourth quarter. By contrast, the Warriors only turned the ball over twice in the final 4:30 of this game, and one of those was the result of an undeserved whistle.

What happened in this game is that the Warriors just stopped hitting shots. And they were completely unable to defend the Spurs ultra-small unit.

No Bogut: I’m certain that many Warriors fans will be incensed at Mark Jackson for sitting Bogut after Duncan went out, and will see this collapse as a repudiation of small-ball. I think that’s incorrect.

First of all, since the Spurs played smallball throughout the end of the quarter, and in both overtimes, you can’t exactly say that smallball lost the game, can you?

Secondly, the smallball Spurs lineup put Bogut at a distinct disadvantage, as was strongly evidenced in the two overtimes. He was unable to guard Diaw out on the floor for one thing, leading to Diaw hitting an open three and a 15-footer. And he was unable to make Diaw pay on the offensive end. The Warriors tried posting him up once, but he was unable to establish deep position, and wound up passing the ball out.

But more importantly, Bogut got diced up by the Tony Parker pick and roll, particularly in the second overtime. He was unable to get to Parker’s ten-footers, and even though Parker was cold from 18 feet, he doesn’t miss from 10.

It’s quite possible that Jackson put his best defensive lineup for the situation on the floor.

Third: Hack-A-Bogut. As the end of the first half demonstrated, Popovich won’t let Bogut close games without forcing him to the line. And if Jackson had left Bogut out there, Hack-a-Bogut would have allowed Popovich to stop the clock and extend the game.

Stephen Curry’s 53 minutes: I’m certain as well that Jackson will be killed by Warriors fans for never getting Curry a rest. Barkley stated post-game that he thought Curry clearly tired down the stretch, pointing out that he went something like 0-8 on jumpers after the third quarter.

Guess what? I don’t blame Jackson for this either. Jackson smelled blood in the water in this game. No Splitter, Duncan sick, and Curry and the Warriors clicking on all cylinders. The Warriors had a fantastic opportunity to steal a game, and Jackson gambled that he could ride his superstar for four quarters. There was no way he could foresee that the game would go to double overtime.

And I don’t necessarily buy the theory that Curry started missing jumpers late in regulation as a result of tiring. The Spurs had a hand in it too, didn’t they? Pop started guarding him with Leonard, his toughest, longest defender. Diaw came in for Duncan, and was able to extend to the three point line.

And Curry wound up 6-14 from three, for 43%. It’s not the 50%+ of the Denver series, but seriously, can we expect better from a rested player? If he makes 3 or 4 in a row, can’t he also miss 3 or 4 in a row? Does it signify when he missed them?

And finally, I think Curry guided the squad beautifully in the fourth quarter. He was drawing doubles by then, and his drives to beat the hedges, and ability to find and hit open teammates was nothing short of spectacular.

I find nothing to fault Jackson for in this game. In fact, it was one of the best coached games I’ve ever seen. He rolled the dice, and took a very savvy gamble. Even good gambles can come up snake eyes.

So What Happened?: Paradoxically, when Duncan went out the Spurs’ defense improved.  He was really a step slow on rotations in this game, allowing the Warriors to beat him several times with floaters. His shot-blocking was MIA.

But when he left the floor, the Spurs got smaller and quicker, and were able to switch all screens effectively. Diaw did a terrific job making things tough for both Curry and Jack in the pick and roll.

Secondly, the Warriors missed open shots and those two Jefferson free throws. Quite obviously, just one more point would have held the Spurs off.

But third, and most concerning going forward, Tony Parker simply took over the game, and the Warriors appeared powerless to stop it. The Warriors struggled badly trying to contain Parker’s pick and roll, particularly after Klay Thompson fouled out.

PLAYERS AND MATCHUPS:

Bogut: As poor as he looked late in the game trying to match up with the Spurs’ smalls, Bogut looked that great defending Tim Duncan in the first half and third quarter. Clogged the lane and rebounded as well as the last game. And looked even better on offense. Hit a couple of running floaters — first time all season? Distributed beautifully, including once in a two man game with Curry in the lane. And sprints out of the lane to set high picks.

Bogut doesn’t look at all like the player he was at any point in the regular season. We know that he’s giving it his all now, and that he was holding back a bit in the regular season — he said as much in interviews before the Denver series. And we know he’s getting help from the needle. But regardless of where it’s coming from, he’s a genuinely great player at the moment. If he can sustain it during the course of the series, the Spurs will have their hands full.

Curry: Barkley said post-game that Curry “has been the best player in the world in these playoffs.” I would have to agree.

When I saw how Pop was guarding him in the first half, I couldn’t believe my eyes. I told the Thaiblonde, even as he opened the game 1 for 5, just watch, he’s going to have a huge game. He simply had to, getting single covered as he was.

Then came his patented third quarter explosion. First he was singled by Parker. Then Danny Green took over. Finally, at 9:22 3rd Q, Pop capitulated and put Kawhi Leonard on him. But still the Spurs were hedging softly, and Curry killed them on penetration.

The first blitz didn’t come until 8:33 of the quarter, but Curry found Draymond for a three.

Thompson: Unlike Curry, just an everyday average all-star. Although he didn’t hit a three, he had a heck of floor game. Take a look at the box score, ending with that +14.

He’s got an incredibly tough assignment guarding Parker and will need to find a way to keep himself on the floor.

But the Spurs have their hands full guarding him as well. When you take away his jumper, he will punish you on the drive. And he proved to Pop that he can’t hide Parker on him.

I don’t hear many complaints about his finishing ability lately.

Barnes and Green: Yes, they’re being left wide open, but do these rookies ever miss? On a team with Curry, Jack and Thompson, they’re on a pretty spectacular shooting run of their own.

The Warriors have simplified Barnes’ offensive game in the playoffs. We’re not seeing any more of those mid-post isos that he’s not ready for. It’s catch and shoot threes, drives when he has a mismatch, and rim runs.

Both of their offensive games have been enormously aided by the switch to smallball. When the Warriors spread the floor, and Curry and Jack draw defenders, it is simply impossible to keep a man on them. Stretch-fours, yes indeed, what a concept.

Both had some struggles on defense in this game, trying to guard much smaller players on switches. But Green had a nice block of Parker, and forced a Ginobili miss to end the first overtime. And both were extremely solid in the painted area. This was one of Barnes’ better defensive performances of the season, particularly when matched on Leonard. He really stepped up his defensive intensity, and pulled down an impressive 12 boards.

Ezeli and Landry: Ezeli got the start at power forward, which was interesting. The defense that resulted was predictably great, but I was totally amazed that the Warriors offense could function at all with this lineup, let alone operate with the total efficiency they showed in this game.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It was also interesting that Draymond Green was the first power forward off the bench. I absolutely love that move. Green and Barnes can both guard Bonner at the three point line, and give him problems on the offensive end. And they’re far more able to switch and cover the Spurs smalls.

I’m guessing Landry will be playing mostly smallball center, at least until Splitter and Duncan return to health.

THE OVER: Anyone follow me betting over 201? The total in regulation was 212.

Seemed like a gift to me. Both of these teams are going to be playing a lot of Nellieball, even when Splitter returns. Both are pushing the tempo. And I don’t think either of these two teams can guard each other.

If this line doesn’t move, neither will I.

So, yes, you could say that the ability to play pain-free had a slight effect on Bogut’s game. He said as much himself post-game: “Fortunately, the needle they stuck me with before the game did wonders for me.”

The liveliness in Bogut’s legs was apparent. It’s the best I’ve seen him run the floor in a Warriors uniform. But the biggest effect of Bogut’s return to “health” was in his stamina. 39 minutes of play. And most importantly, he stayed strong into the 3rd and 4th quarters — something we’ve never seen from him this series — allowing him to dominate the Nuggets tiring and foul-plagued bigs.

There has never been a question that a healthy Andrew Bogut is a fantastic player at the defensive end. And for one night at least, a little medical miracle allowed him to show it. His defensive presence completely dominated that end of the floor, virtually shutting down the Nuggets’ points-in-the-paint-reliant attack. As George Karl put it last night, “I’d forgotten how good he is at clogging the lane.”

Bogut was the MVP of the Warriors last night in the biggest game of their season. It was great to watch — particularly for the sheer courageousness and selflessness of the effort — and it was great to see the joy and satisfaction he took from his performance, and the series-clinching win, after the game. Because he’s been through absolute hell this season.

Bogut has stated in numerous interviews that this has been his most difficult season on a personal level. Gwen Knapp quoted him thusly:

I’ve had an absolute nightmare of a six to nine months; there was no light at the end of the tunnel. It was pitch-black for months.… Guys on the road, I’m at home. My day consisted of rehab in the morning, go home, ice. I don’t go out. Haven’t had a beer or a drink or an alcoholic beverage. [Because alcohol makes his ankle swell.] I’ve given up a lot to just go home and get my ankle right.

Before the series began, as was revealed by his TNT interviewer post-game, he stated that he was wondering whether it was all worth it.

He also said this post-game, when asked whether this was the best game of his career in a Warriors uniform: “For sure — save the best for last.” Wait, what?

He quickly corrected himself, continuing, “Hopefully, not the last now. But a great day for us.”

Um, as a self-trained (perforce) Bogutologist, I have to restrain myself from reading too much into those remarks. But I think it is worth asking ourselves just how much performances like this are costing him. Particularly when, asked post-game how he’s feeling, he says things like: “I’m very, very good right now, but not looking forward to waking up in the morning.”

It’s also worth asking how many performances like this one Bogut has left to give the Warriors this post-season. Is he going to shoot up that ankle every single game going forward? Will it continue to work?

Could it harm his future career? No, scratch that. No one, not even he himself, is concerned about that now. (Nor, apparently, is anyone concerned about David Lee’s future.) These playoffs are what Bogut endured the torment of this season for. And he’s going to give it everything he’s got.

He’s got three days rest before Game 1 against the Spurs, and then the grind begins again.

Mark Jackson: Not going to take away anything from Jackson’s performance this series. He’s been nothing short of brilliant. And the results speak louder than any analysis: He pulled off this Game 6 must-win, and the series against the favored team.

But if you’re in the mood for second-guessing, there were a few decisions in this game you could question.

Beginning with the starting lineup. For the first time this series, since David Lee went down, Jackson went big to start the game, slotting Carl Landry at PF alongside Bogut, and returning Jarrett Jack to his customary bench role.

And this exposed, or I guess I should say re-exposed, the greatest current flaw in Andrew Bogut’s game: his limited offense. And more to the point, the way his limited offense affects the Warriors offense, when he’s paired with another big who doesn’t spread the floor. Even though Jackson didn’t go to the Bogut high-pick in the first half, George Karl decided to just put a naked trap on Curry at the three point line, to get the ball out of his hands. With a poorly spread floor, the Nuggets were able to stick to the shooters, and recover to Bogut in time.

The Warriors’ offense, as it has so often this season with Bogut in the opening lineup, completely stalled. At the 9:00 mark of the 2nd quarter, they were still stuck on 21 points. That proved to be not completely disastrous against the poor-shooting Nuggets, but I have little doubt it would against the offensively efficient Spurs.

The Warriors first went small at 8:20 2nd Q, with Barnes at the PF, and immediately broke out on an 8-0 run, and closed the half down only two.

The big lineup fared better in the third quarter, but only because Faried picked up three immediate fouls and was forced to sit. And then George Karl made a fatal error (which I’ll get to).

Jackson’s other possible mistakes in this game? Well, I’m tempted to call his decision to slow the pace down mid-4th Quarter with the Warriors up 18 a rookie mistake. But then I remembered that Don Nelson made a similar mistake in the game in which he tied the record for most wins. And I didn’t think it was a mistake then.

I do think it’s a mistake now. I agree with what Tom Tolbert said post-game, that you should continue to play the style of basketball that got you the lead, until only a couple of minutes remain in the game. The fact of the matter is that by trying to take the air out of the ball, the Warriors took the air out of their own game, and their half-court struggles breathed life into the Nuggets.

Something else I found curious was Jackson yanking Jarret Jack twice, late in the fourth quarter. Yes, Jack was having his struggles, and perhaps he needed a breather, but I thought it was an extremely dangerous decision to have both rookies Barnes and Green on the floor at the same time. It quite obviously put pressure on the Warriors’ ball-handling and decision-making. But also, those Barnes top-of-the-key isos? Not what I’d want to go to in crunch time. If ever.

David Stern, is that you? Um, that “tripping” foul against Barnes that “earned” Faried his third foul? It appears that Faried’s feet were made a point of emphasis before the game. Mark Jackson’s $25k was well spent.

It just may have won the Warriors the game.

George Karl’s Fatal Error: Going to the Twin Towers look of McGee and Koufos early in the third quarter, after Faried got in foul trouble. This was a forseeably disastrous move that immediately sprung Curry free to bury the Nuggets. With two bigs on the floor, the Nuggets were no longer able to blitz Curry when Jackson (correctly) immediately starting going to the Curry-Bogut pick and roll. They were too slow on the floor to risk blitzing.

• 10:13 Bogut high pick, McGee soft show, Curry attacks the lane for 2 FTs.
• 9:34 Bogut high pick, no blitz. 3 in Lawson’s face.
• 9:13 Landry beats McGee and Koufos downcourt causing a scramble: Curry left wide open for a 3.
• 8:01 Bogut high pick, another soft hedge, another Curry 3.
• 7:29 Curry iso versus Lawson, both McGee and Koufos give help, leaving Bogut open for a dunk.

McGee and Koufos are also both terribly limited offensive players. They’re not post-up players, they don’t spread the floor, and they gave the Nuggets nothing offensively to balance out what they were costing the team on the defensive end.

By the time Karl called timeout to get this lineup off the court, a 2 point Nuggets lead had turned into a 6 point deficit, and the Warriors were off and running.

Stephen Curry: I attended this game courtesy of my good poker buddy, Micah. Micah is a long-time Warriors fan, and by long-time, I mean he used to go to the Cow Palace to see Bill Russell play Wilt Chamberlain.

Micah is a very reluctant fan of Stephen Curry. He always tells me: “I just don’t trust him. The young fella just doesn’t get it. He doesn’t take care of the ball. He thinks he’s on a playground all the time.”

And I always smile and shake my head, and say, you must be kidding me. Curry’s a superstar!

Well, Micah had his moment last night. Oh boy, did he. You think Oracle is loud? I watched that fourth quarter with the crowd in my left ear, and Micah’s demented screams of rage in my right. I thought I might have to adminster CPR.

Take care of the ball, young fella. If for nothing else, than for the health of one of the greatest Warriors fans in history.

Young Battier: What a game for Draymond Green (apart from the fourth quarter turnovers). He stated recently that he dropped in the draft because the scouts weren’t sure whom he could guard in the NBA.

How about everyone?

The rebounding, tenacity, heart, IQ, court vision. How about that airborne touch pass to Curry for three at 3:48 3Q?

If he continues to be able hit his threes, as he did in this series, he will become a hugely valuable two-way stretch four. A young Shane Battier. In other words, the kind of player that wins. Which is exactly what Andrew Bogut said about him after the game: “He wins games.”

I can’t help but think back to Bob Fitzgerald’s cringing and whining during the season whenever Green would launch. (Mournful tone) “I just don’t think that’s Draymond’s game…”

Bob Fitzgerald: Speaking of the devil, I’ve been tuning into the TNT broadcasts, which is an absolute blessing. (Sorry Barnett, love you.) I bring Bob up, because Green’s emergence as a three-point shooter in Bob’s face has reminded me of something else: We’re no longer hearing Bob say one negative word about the Warriors three-point shooting approach in general.

My head is still ringing from his game-calls during Keith Smart’s tenure: “The Warriors are getting a little perimeter happy!” “Dorell Wright is becoming a volume shooter!” (In the midst of hitting 9 threes in one game.) “The Warriors should be careful not to fall in love with the outside shot!” “Missed corner threes result in layups or dunks!”

He’s totally shut up about it, am I right? Not one peep.

Maybe Mark Jackson is on to something. Maybe God is a Warriors fan.

The Warriors Defense: We heard a lot about the Warriors’ defense and “culture change” after this win. And I am willing to concede that on this night Andrew Bogut was a dominant defender, and that Draymond Green is a dominant defender on every night. But the Warriors defense? I’m not buying it.

It should be recognized by now that the Warriors have one of the worst perimeter defenses in the NBA, that has gotten by this season by packing the lane, and daring teams to shoot from outside. And it should be recognized that the Denver Nuggets, with their reliance on getting layups and points in the paint, were tailor-made to look terrible against the Warriors’ defense.

The Nuggets got all the open looks they could possibly want in this game, and all series long. They just can’t shoot.

But the Spurs can.

The Spurs Series: Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal. The Spurs can spread the floor at every position. No more packing the paint.

Who will Bogut guard? It might not be Tiago Splitter, who badly sprained his ankle in Game 3 of the first round against the Lakers. He is doubtful for Game 1, and may not play until much later in the series.

Given the fact that the Warriors are small at power forward, even when they start Carl Landry, the Spurs may play small from the start of this series, with Duncan at center, and Bonner or Leonard at the four. This is bad news for Bogut and the Warriors, chiefly because Duncan has the ability to pull Bogut away from the basket with his 18 foot range. If Bogut is forced to guard out on the floor, the Warriors perimeter players will get chewed to pieces by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

Even with Duncan by himself, the Spurs will be a much better defensive rebounding team than the crippled Nuggets. That means the Spurs fast break will be difficult to contain. They are an extremely fast-paced team, that runs at every opportunity. This could also spell bad news for Bogut.

The Warriors defense will be put to the test in this series in ways in which it wasn’t against the Nuggets. I think Mark Jackson will again be forced to play a lot of small-ball and push the tempo, in order to keep pace with the Spurs’ offense.

This will be not be a defensive series at all. Two Nellieball teams are going to push the pedal to the metal.

The Warriors are +750 dogs in the series. I’m not tempted to take that. But more interestingly, the over/under for Game 1 is at 201.

I like the over.

Or did this game have something to do with Kenneth Faried’s resurgence into better health, Andrew Bogut’s relapse into immobility, and George Karl’s adjustment-du-jour, going big for the first time this series, by starting Javale McGee at center with Faried at the four? Therein lies the intrigue.

Karl’s Adjustments: This was the first time all season that Karl put McGee in the starting lineup. It’s also the first time all series that McGee matched up against Bogut for a quarter of basketball. And I think an objective observer would note that McGee won the matchup, for this game at least. Quicker to the boards, quicker post moves (although he blew some bunnies). And critically, since Bogut could do nothing against him at the offensive end, he was free to defend the paint.

Karl also switched his best defender, Iguodala, away from Klay Thompson, and back onto Curry, and sometimes, Jack. It looked to me like Karl was reading Mark Jackson’s mind on this: when it was time for Jack to play the point, Iggy started picking him up. That left Ty Lawson to play Curry, and he did a good job staying in front of him. I think we can safely say we won’t see Andre Miller picking Curry up anymore.

And I think it’s safe to say that Karl will roll with this gameplan in Game 6. Faried is as back as he will get. The time for improvisation and experimentation is over.

Mark Jackson’s Adjustments:  Jackson surprised me by staying small and sticking with Harrison Barnes at the four. He had been threatening all series long — via his opening lineup shenanigans — to match up big with Carl Landry whenever Karl returned to his traditional regular-season big opening lineup.

This is truly a tough call. The Warriors got worked on the inside in this game, but it’s hard to know how much of that was due to Bogut’s down game, how much Bogut can improve in Game 6, and how well Landry can work together with Bogut against McGee and Faried. We haven’t seen much of that this season, or in this series.

Also, Barnes might be better suited than Landry to defend the run and gun Nuggets. And of course, Barnes has been helping Curry and Jack considerably in the half-court by stretching the floor and punishing the Nuggets from the three-point line.

It will be very interesting to see whether Jackson stays small to start Game 6. Very interesting.

I was greatly surprised as well by another of Jackson’s decisions. With the Nuggets taking Chandler off of Bogut, wouldn’t you have expected Jackson to return to the Curry and Bogut pick and roll that he used so extensively to start Game 4?  Invite the trap, drawing McGee out of the lane (he is, by the way, far less efficient at trapping Curry than Chandler), and feed the ball back to the completely-unguarded, rolling Bogut for some more Thunder Slams? Jackson went away from it in this game. Only one high pick was set by Bogut for Curry, by my count.

Why did Jackson go away from what appeared to most fans to work stupendously well in the first quarter of the last game? From what got Bogut 12 points in that first quarter? Was it because the third quarter of last game showed him how much better the Warriors are with Curry and Jack iso’d, and attacking one-on-one? Or was it to save wear and tear on the gimpy Curry? Or was it to save wear and tear on the gimpy Bogut? Perhaps Mark Jackson realized that Karl was baiting him into overusing Bogut?

It should be noted that when the highly mobile Ezeli was on the floor, the Warriors used him repeatedly in the high pick and roll. And George Karl was far less willing to trap hard off of Ezeli’s picks than he was Bogut’s in the last game. Some sophisticated decisions are being made by both coaches here, that would be fertile territory for a beat reporter to explore.

Curry: Had a tough time breaking down Iggy and Lawson without the aid of picks. And in general, was far less aggressive looking for his shot, particularly in the first half.

Thompson: Iggy’s off him the first two games, shoots well. Iggy’s on him games 3 and 4, shoots poorly. Iggy’s off him again, 19 points on 8-17.

Yes, matchups matter.

It should also be noted that Jackson has been determined to attack the Nugget’s weakest defenders, so that when Iggy is on Klay, he simply doesn’t get the play calls.

I wonder, is it the Warriors long-term plan to keep Klay in the backcourt with Curry, and use him to guard all the jitterbug point guards? Is that what they see themselves doing next year? Three years from now?

Klay is doing an admirable job in an impossible assignment. As constructed, the Warriors have major defensive issues on the perimeter.

Bogut: It’s possible he just took this game off, and given his health issues, I wouldn’t blame him if he did.

But: Very little pep in his step, or springiness in his jump. We saw a lot more activity in Game 1.

McGee is a lot quicker than him in the paint. If McGee’s finishing ability improves in Game 6, this could hurt the Warriors. Those of you who saw McGee against Bynum and Gasol in last year’s playoffs know what I mean.

No dunks in this game, and when Bogut doesn’t get all the way to the rim, he doesn’t score. His one basket in this game was a put-back. We’ve seen some pretty ugly runners from him in the last couple of games.  No post-ups whatsoever. Not one.

5 rebounds, like last game. And the Warriors out-rebounded for the second straight game.

Is Bogut wearing down? I expect him to come out on fire in Game 6, shot up with everything possible, and holding nothing back. The question will be how effective he remains in the second half.

Barnes: The Nuggets are completely ignoring him on defense. His putative defender, Faried, is busy packing the lane. And Barnes is making the Nuggets pay, time and time again, by knocking down his wide-open threes.

That’s what stretch-fours do. Congratulations to Mark Jackson, for discovering this concept in the post-season. Assist, David Lee.

I was impressed by a couple of his defensive rebounds. For the first time all season, Barnes is being forced to compete under the basket, and he showed well in this game. 9 boards.

His one weakness remains his midrange game off the bounce. The Nuggets would do well to drive him off the three point line. But they just might not be able to do that, with all the attention they’re forced to pay Curry and Jack.

Of Cheap Shots and Flagrant Fouls: Look, I’ve seen a lot of playoff basketball. I’m old enough to have seen Kevin McHale clothesline Kurt Rambis. I saw Robert Horry take Steve Nash out of a series, and a likely championship. I saw the bad boy Pistons, and the even badder Oakley-Mason Knicks.

What we’ve seen in this series ain’t nothing. What we saw last night was pussy-footing.

Bogut has delivered the strongest blow in this series, by far: the crushing screen on Andre Iguodala. And yes, it was blatantly illegal. He lowered his shoulder, and the boom. It just didn’t get called.

I loved it. And I’m not going to start sputtering up nicely chilled Chardonnay when the Nuggets retaliate.

Man up, Warriors fans.

Game Six: As I mentioned in my last post, NBA history suggests that Game 6 will be for all the marbles. It is extraordinarily difficult to win a Game 7 on the road. (I’m sure someone will ship me the stats on that.)

I give the edge to the Warriors. Not so much because they’re at home. I think that can be greatly overrated in close-out games. But because they have the series’ only superstar, and they have an overwhelming edge in shooters and scorers.

I think that to win Game 6, the Nuggets will have to get a huge three-point shooting game out of the blue, from at least one player. The most likely bet is Wilson Chandler. 41% on the season, heating up at 5-11 last game, including a late 4th quarter dagger. And the Warriors are leaving him open.

But I’ll put my money on Stephen Curry. As I have done without wavering since watching him play in his first NBA preseason.

It’s closing time, and the Warriors have one of the best closers I have ever seen, or ever hope to see.

It’s pretty easy to tell that for the last week, George Karl has woken up thinking about Stephen Curry, and gone to bed thinking about Stephen Curry. Because every single adjustment he has made to his lineup — and he has made several, completely radical adjustments to his lineup in this series — has been specifically designed to stop Curry. In Game 1, he blitzed Wilson Chandler off of the David Lee high picks. In Game 2, with Lee out and Bogut setting the high picks, Karl went to Anthony Randolph in the second half over Koufous and McGee, simply because he needed Randolph’s quickness to continue blitzing Curry. In Game 3, Karl made his first completely radical adjustment: benching his centers, and starting Faried at center against Bogut. With Wilson Chandler at power forward. Going 6-7″, 6-8″ across the front line. Why? So that he could use Faried to blitz Curry in the pick and roll.

It didn’t work. In the second half of Game 3, Curry made mincemeat of the tiring Faried.

Did Karl surrender? Retreat into conventionality? No, he didn’t. In this Game 4 he literally doubled down, and made one of the most radical adjustments you are ever likely to see in an NBA playoff. He switched the assignments of Faried and Chandler. Faried guarded the Warriors’ newly-minted stretch-four Harrison Barnes. And 6-8″ 225 lb. small forward Wilson Chandler got the assignment to guard 7-0″ 260 lb. Andrew Bogut.

Why did Karl make this almost absurdly radical adjustment?

To stop Stephen Curry. Karl did it so that he could once again use Wilson Chandler to blitz Stephen Curry when Andrew Bogut set the high pick.

He also refused to allow his defenders to come off their men to guard the wide open Andrew Bogut. Only when Bogut received the ball and drove the lane did the Nuggets move to pick him up.

Once again, George Karl rolled the dice, determined to get the ball out of Curry’s hands. He guarded Bogut with his small forward, when he guarded him at all. He DARED the Warriors to try and beat the Nuggets with Andrew Bogut. He DARED Andrew Bogut to give the Nuggets 20+ points.

You saw the result: Curry was held to 7 points on 1-3 shooting in the first half. And Andrew Bogut had his biggest offensive half of the season, scoring 12 points on wide open dunks. Every single basket a dunk.

Karl’s strategy didn’t pay dividends in the first half. The Nuggets went into the locker room down 12. But I’m pretty sure I know what was on Karl’s mind at the time. I’m pretty sure, because when the Nuggets came out for the second half, Wilson Chandler was still guarding Bogut.

Karl was thinking: I’m going to continue to take Curry out of the game. I’m going to continue to make Andrew Bogut beat us. Can Bogut keep it up for an entire game?

It would have been interesting to watch, but it never happened. Why?

Because Warriors head coach Mark Jackson — who has been coaching the pants off the great George Karl in this series — made a brilliant counter-adjustment to start the second half. He made a counter-adjustment to get the ball back where it belonged.

In the hands of his superstar, Stephen Curry.

Stephen Curry’s Third Quarter for the Ages: Yes, Stephen Curry played like the superstar he is in the third quarter. But let’s be clear about something up front: Mark Jackson made it happen.

How? By getting Bogut out of the way. By completely doing away with the Bogut high pick, and the pick and roll.

The Warriors opened the second half with Curry getting picks from… Klay Thompson. And guess what? If you blitz off of a Klay Thompson pick, you’re going to get a wide-open Klay Thompson three in your mug. Which is exactly what George Karl got. Assist, Curry.

From that moment on, Stephen Curry and Jarret Jack were single-covered at the top of the key.

Game over.

It took awhile to get going. The Warriors wasted time trying silly things like posting Bogut up against Chandler and Iguodala. They tried Harrison Barnes, to the tune of a couple of turnovers. Barnes was yanked less than 3 minutes into the half, replaced by Landry. And the single-covered Jack made several nice drive and dish connections to Landry for mid-range jumpers. But after a Landry turnover at 8:00, the Nuggets cut the lead to 4, 62-58. The Warriors were putting the ball in the hands of the wrong players.

Landry traded two more baskets with the Nuggets, but then, finally, Mark Jackson’s adjustment kicked in, and Stephen Curry took over the game.

6:22 3Q: Carl Landry sets one of the few high picks of the quarter, for Jarret Jack, resulting in Landry getting the ball in the key. Corey Brewer idiotically leaves Curry on the wing to rotate to Landry. (Cardinal Rule: You should never leave a three point shooter to guard a two point shooter. Pope Rule: You should never leave Stephen Curry to guard Carl Landry.) And Curry buries the wide-open three point shot in front of the Nuggets’ bench.

There are two big reasons why that shot was utterly amazing. The first is that those were Curry’s first points of the quarter. Just think about that. Stephen Curry put up those 22 points in the final 6:22 minutes of the quarter.

The second reason is this: (And you must go back and rewind the tape to watch this again. Please, please, please go back and watch this.) Curry is 0-1 for the quarter at this point, hasn’t made a shot. But as soon as the ball leaves his hand, he makes a 180 spin to stare at the Nuggets bench. Stephen Curry is staring down the Nuggets bench, his back to the basket,

WHILE THE BALL IS STILL IN THE AIR.

Uh oh. Game on.

• 4:24: Jack single-covered, drives and dishes to Curry for open three.
• 4:00: Curry iso’d against Andre Miller at top of the key, drives by him and scores the floater.
• 3:00: Early offense right wing iso against Miller, 18-foot step back J.
• 2:00: The first center pick of the half, with Festus Ezeli. But Chandler decides to give up on the blitz and return to the rolling Ezeli. Oops! 29-foot 3 pointer in Miller’s mug.
• 1:30: Top of the key iso against Miller. Easy drive by, and ridiculous left-handed floater, AND ONE.
• 1:15: A steal leads to a walk-up three.
• 0:28: Curry iso’d against Brewer, drives by him and dishes to the open Jack, then back-pedals to the three point line. Jack finds him wide open for 20, 21 and 22.

I guess that’s why George Karl wanted to keep the ball out of Stephen Curry’s hands.

Stephen Curry Superstar: Has Stephen Curry suddenly developed into a superstar? Has he suddenly “emerged”?

Well…

36-13-10 against the Clippers. 30-13-7 against Denver. 31-11-5 in Atlanta. 35-10-6 and 29-12-8 against Toronto. 30-11-5 against Memphis. 27-14-8 in Minny. 42-9-8 in Portland.

Remember those games? Curry put them up in his rookie season, when he averaged 20-8-5 after the all-star break, while shooting 46% from the field, 44% from three, and 89% from the line. And when I was discussing then why giving the Rookie of the Year award to Tyreke Evans would be utter idiocy, I stated that Curry had me wondering, not whether he was a future all-star, but whether he was a future Hall of Famer.

Because Stephen Curry was already a superstar. Playing for a genius coach, with a rookie stretch-four, in an up-tempo Nellieball system, with total freedom to create and look for his own shot.

Just like he is now.

Stephen Curry is back to the future.

Andrew Bogut: The ignorati will be jumping up and down screaming. Look at those dunks!

The cognoscenti will recognize that Karl was simply daring Bogut to make those plays, leaving him wide open. It would have been completely humiliating if he hadn’t made those plays. A D-Leaguer could have made them.

Except maybe that facial he administered to Javale McGee. That one was pretty special. (I can only imagine what the Oracle sounded like at that moment, not being an Authentic Fan.) McGee, of course, was ridiculously slow to see the play coming. If there is anyone in the league who deserves to wind up on a poster, it’s him.

The second half, by contrast, was a bit of a disaster for Bogut. Denied of the high-pick-setting role that left him completely unguarded, he was held scoreless by much smaller players. The attempted post-ups of Chandler (8:00 3Q) and Iguodala (10:00 3Q) both ended in turnovers. He got diced up in the lane on defense by Ty Lawson. He got beat down court by Chandler after a made basket (8:56 3Q).

He and the Warriors were a disastrous -8 for the third quarter, until Draymond Green replaced Landry with a little over 5 minutes left. Bogut finished -4 for the quarter, and never came back into the game.

-2 for the game. 5 rebounds in 25 minutes. Perhaps there was something to Karl’s devious strategy.

Jarret Jack: Cleaned up the turnovers and was simply dominant.

It’s hard not to feel that he’s an ideal backcourt mate for Stephen Curry (assuming James Harden is not available). Capable of taking the pressure off, running the point, getting Curry open looks off the ball, frequently dominating the game in his own right.

Maybe there’s something to that small backcourt concept, after all?

Yes indeed, in the right system.

Carl Landry: Helped stabilize the game in the third quarter. Continues to bury his open jumpers, which is pretty remarkable, considering. I read before this series that Landry shot his mid-range jumpers at 41% this year. (Up from, I believe, 36% over the previous two years.)

So, um… keep it up, Carl!

Draymond Green: The Warriors exploded when he came in for Landry in the third quarter. He was +15 for the quarter (and the game). Jackson left him in for the entire fourth quarter.

Spread the floor. Hit two threes. (I think he’s correctly toned down his jump a bit.) Hit that crazy runner in the lane.

Crazy defensive energy. 6 rbs, 4 steals, 1 block. Even when going up against McGee and Koufus on the boards, he was a force. There are no uncontested rebounds when he’s on the court.

This is the game where Green fulfilled the promise I saw in him in summer league, and early in the season. This is the game that indicates that Green might have a real future in the league as a stretch-four.

His best game as a Warrior.

Harrison Barnes: This rookie fell with a thud. Faried ate him alive.

Not going to fault him for missing his open threes. That’s going to happen, and he’s already overachieved in that regard in this series.

The rest of his floor game, though… not great. It gets a little tougher when you’re not being guarded by Ty Lawson and Andre Miller.

Festus Ezeli: Take a look at his line: nothing but zeroes, a total bagel. Makes you worry a little bit about that knee with the heavy brace on it.

+9 though. Like Ekpe Udoh, Ezeli can be an asset on the floor without putting up stats. Or maybe he was just sharing the floor with Draymond Green.

The Series: Sure looks dire for the Nuggets, doesn’t it? You have to feel just a little bit sorry for them, because before Gallinari and Faried got injured they looked absolutely invincible, and were smelling a deep run. Gallinari would have been huge for them in this series. Not just with his desperately needed floor-spreading, but with his burgeoning all-around two-way floor game. Most importantly, he would have vastly improved the Nuggets imploding defense, by moving Chandler back to the three, and Iggy back to the two. None of that disastrous Lawson/Miller backcourt that the Warriors are so viciously exploiting.

I don’t buy the common wisdom, circulated by the Warriors media before this game, that this Game 4 was a game the Nuggets absolutely had to have. If they were actually the best team in this series (I don’t believe they are, now that Mark Jackson has fortuitously discovered the Warriors’ true Nellieball identity), how far-fetched would it be for them to win at home in Game 5, and then steal Game 6 here? Not far-fetched at all. The better team has frequently come back from 3-1 deficits.

Traditionally, you can expect teams in the Nuggets’ position to win Game 5 at home. It’s the first close-out game, the first game that either team truly needs. And traditionally, you can expect teams in the Warriors’ position, on the road in a game they don’t need, to have a let-down.

It might not play out that way, because the Nellieball Warriors truly look like they have the Nuggets’ number, and this is most of the Warriors players’ first playoff series: they’re hungry, not tired enough and not self-confident enough to take a game off.

But if Game 5 holds true to form, and the (now truly) desperate Nuggets prevail, then I predict that the series will be decided by Game 6 at  Oracle.

Meaning that the winner of Game 6 will win the series.