Fibonacci-Financial

Kinda flaky

2012-01-28T09:41:00.000-08:00

First Wave's Charts&Chat log • January 25, 2011

TOS chat. Kind of a flaky start tonight, but what a session once it got going! Besides indicators and market analysis, we got lots of David's philosophy and a trip down memory lane as well... well over two hours tonight... that i26 stuff must be amazing.

TOS Chat -> Right click for [download]

Above is from an email titled

[David Elliott , mentorcenter] MOST IMPORTANT TECHNICAL CHAT THIS LAST 12 MONTHS

FW is generally pretty good at predicting the day's trend, but I have a problem with stuff like this and the fact that his emails arrive well after the market has already established the 'predicted' trend.. I listened to about 30 minutes of this before cutting my loss. The flaky start was the best part.

If you feel like defending FW then please tell me what was so amazing. The amazing thing is that I wasted 30 minutes of my time.

Monday

2012-01-23T18:35:00.000-08:00

These sites are great for learning or just refreshing your math skills.
Perfect thing to do while the market churns ;)

http://www.khanacademy.org
And here is another
http://www.understandingcalculus.com/

Sunday

2012-01-22T19:15:00.000-08:00

I suppose I should post at least once a week, but nothing has changed since my previous post on the 13th.

It appears to me that the market needs to draw a topping shadow, and reverse hard before the Bulls take profit. The Bears need to take it below the 50 DMA. Until saturation the market will continue to bleed upward. 1330 is a magnet at this point.

Volume has slowly declined for months, but price continues to hover near the top tines of the major forks, and trend lines off the peaks, and the daily bars are getting smaller, so it appears there is a top close at hand.

The last significant low was about 1273 and there is support near 1292. The 20 DMA may intersect with the market in that area near 1292 which was my previous upward target, if that fails, the 50 will still be there near 1250 and the bottom tine of the fork from early August.

There are other important levels near 1300, but I'm looking at the 1250 area and the 50 DMA as the critical level. Once below that I feel the market will gain downward momentum, and it may even drop through the 1218 support with out too much hesitation.

So the DMA's are the levels of interest and they all line up well with the forks. It's difficult to say exactly where the market will run out of steam, but once the move toward center begins I believe it will take our breath away.

Friday

2012-01-13T07:36:00.000-08:00

15:00 ET

The trading range mentioned this morning is going to be a deciding factor.

On Tuesday the the market may come within range of the 20 DMA which should offer support along with the 200 DMA just below.

Therefore it seems less likely that 50DMA will be tested, and until the 50 is broken I believe there remains a chance of one more blast toward 1300. These Moving Averages fit well with the forks and the Volume Profile which indicates that 1265 is going to continue to offer strong support.

The market has been testing the upper tines of two large downward forks and remains near in the upper range. In theory if the market fails to push through the upper tine the market will soon tire of this and collapse toward the center. So just to be clear, I am not Bullish, but I do see a possible run up next week before collapsing.

10:30 ET
15 minute bottoming tail indicates a bounce off the lower tine (green line). Back in the 1268-1280.50 trading range established between the 3d and 9th of January.

Thursday

2012-01-12T06:21:00.001-08:00

2012-01-11T21:40:00.000-08:00

This is what i was expecting

I'm betting (not hoping) that the Chinese are a day late and a Yuan short.

Who knows maybe the Chinese will lead us out of a depression.

I expected something more along the lines of a flash to new highs and then a reversal. This pause has me thinking we have one more push.

What I would like to convey to Google

2012-01-10T19:56:00.000-08:00

This is what I would like to convey to Google if there was a way to communicate with those assholes.
My Message

I love Google for all the great services such as Earth, Search, Sketchup and Translate, but It's just not right that I receive 20 calls a week from Google pressuring me to advertize with them. They even go so far as to change their number each time they call so I can't block them.

If you are a victim of Google I hope you enjoy this video.

Tuesday

2012-01-10T06:33:00.000-08:00

Target met

Monday

2012-01-09T08:20:00.000-08:00

Still stuck in this range but a channel has become more clear as well as a wedge pattern.

I'm still hoping to find a better place to short, but if it breaks down the sell off could accelerate quickly.

Judge Marc Barron deserves jail time

2012-01-08T23:05:00.000-08:00

Judge Marc Barron and the the West Bloomfield Police Department, who claim to be one of the finest police departments are both dumb as the stinky business from the rear of your dog!.

Julian Wendrow was WRONGLY accused of sexual abuse by the entire system. Police, justice and prosecuting attorneys are at fault, and should be held liable, and prosecuted for their actions. Serious jail time should be given to the head of each of these departments, and especially Judge Marc Barron who refused to show any intelligence .

This entire investigation, and court was a complete shame. I feel these people are not dumb, but instead went out of their way to destroy a loving family.

One has to ask what was their motive? I'm guessing it was the sensationalism that the press gave them.

It's just one more case of power going to the heads of the people we trust. I have lost faith in the system. While I was a fire fighter, I personally witnessed attacks by police upon innocent people. These stories continue to come forth recently with Occupy Wall Street protests, and it's is obvious that the corruption, and evil intent runs very deep.

Friday

2012-01-06T11:21:00.000-08:00

Nothing has changed. This neutral ground has has history since Jan 2011

Technically the candle sticks have created a sell signal, but it looks very questionable.

Wednesday

2012-01-04T07:32:00.000-08:00

13:45 ET

Fibonacci Target

10:30 ET

The reversal hour will probably turn this market right here at the support

A break above 1270 should allow the 1290 target to be met

Tuesday

2012-01-03T13:00:00.000-08:00

This area has been my target for quite awhile. At times it did not look possible but here we are.
Several specific levels have been mentioned. 1268, 1290 and 1310.

These highlighted areas are the first hour and the last 30 minutes

Price is now in the lower half of 4 upward forks.
Currently approaching two strong trend lines form 2007 and May 2011.
Will the the forks break one after the other in a rapid succession when the stops are hit?

It may be best to wait for further confirmation, rather then take a stand in front of a swift moving market, but I've been saying the peak would be in this area and 1290 appears to be the more likely.

There will be pauses on the way down, but I expect a H&S target of about 777 when it drops.

Buy Confirmation from a White Opening Marubozu

Friday

2011-12-31T00:11:00.000-08:00

My feeling is that we still need to balance the symmetry of this small upward fork. I'm still holding out for 1268 or better yet 1290 before adding to my already short position and going all in on the short side.

I know it's not smart to shoot for the fences, but I'm feeling very certain of a near term collapse.

To be truthful it's not just a felling. Currently the market is at the top of a long term fork it has only two ways to go. Either we breakout to fantastic new highs or we hit the resistance and fall. Does anyone really think we are in a position to rally? I rest my case.

Here is an interesting candle chart. The year turned out to be a Doji

Yearly Chart - S&P

Thusday

2011-12-29T00:53:00.000-08:00

I really have nothing new to say. Last night came very close to breaking the range. This upward fork appears to have a little more upside, but it also feels like a very fragile market.

Since Wednesday's close the Bulls have attempted to pull the market up but as of 00:30 PST the Bears have managed to take back most of those gains and have challenged the upward fork.

It would appear that if the 1240 area is violated 1223 would be a likely target and possibly the beginning of the collapse. 1197-1200 is the last support.

Wednesday

2011-12-28T07:36:00.001-08:00

Today's candle engulfed the previous two days. Tuesday's doji was the set up, and today's Long Black Candle confirms the short.
My target of 1268 was missed by only a few handles. 1240 area remains the near term support and may still be the launch pad for 1290+, but the market is close to collapse.

Picking the tops and bottoms is not important. At this point it's being on the side of the trend.

By the way I found this article very interesting
Keeping it Simple - Day Trade Rules, a Pathway to Financial Security

This area of support near 1249 is quite important for the Bulls to hold.

Tuesday

2011-12-27T18:49:00.000-08:00

On a monthly chart I see the forks drawn like this. My best guess is that we are poised for a collapse.

Finally a break of the fork's handle. read Friday and Saturday if that means nothing to you.

Saturday

2011-12-24T11:33:00.000-08:00

A more likely alternative fork

The market is back inside this consolidation range from a couple weeks ago.
What I'm watching for is a breakout above the red area.
If that should happen I would expect to find a target about the same width above that range at about 1290.

The risk of going long right now seems too great because we are close to the resistance.
But the Bulls should be looking for a strong move through the 1268 area for a target of 1290 +
The bears should be looking for topping shadows, to signal a crack and snap play to the 1220 support if the lower range is broken or the candlesticks give a sell signal.

Whether or not the wedges I recently pointed out are real, they are pointing to the areas around January 20 and February 20 as significant dates. As they draw near we will have to remember to expect a reversal.
The last apex pin pointed 12/5 with perfect accuracy.

Currently the SPX daily candlesticks are long since confirmation of the hammer on 12/16 with no reversal patterns in sight. .

Friday

2011-12-23T08:11:00.000-08:00

The market has met the 200 DMA and trend line from July 2011. Breaking slightly into the lower half of this green fork. Due to the markets ability to stay above the center of this fork over night I have reevaluated the expected trading range I mentioned yesterday.

The lower tine of this fork should provide support near 1240 if the markets sell off today, but currently the pattern does not appear to have peaked.

If 1240 is hit today I'd look for a symmetrical pattern to balance the fork, and I would expect the the markets to hold up until the begining of the new year. As previously mentioned 1300 area is a likely target. This is a Fibonacci level, and it jives with the trend line from 1373.50 peak in May 2011.

This green fork requires symmetry

Below is an alternative positioning of the green fork showing a symmetric pattern which could peak near 1268.

In any case 1240 should offer support, but this has become a critical level for the Bulls to hold.

1200 remains the breaking level at which a 100 handle flash crash would most likely occur.

Here are some things I'm observing . FAS and FAZ have not reacted to this mornings Bullish trend.
The one minute TICK chart is making lower lows even thought it has remained above zero for the best part of the day.
The Adv/Dec is uninspired at about 2:1 and price just did a touch and go off the R2 pivot.

None of this looks especially good for a bullish close, but I'm not seeing any topping shadows either.

The role of uninformed individuals in achieving democratic consensus

2011-12-22T09:31:00.000-08:00

Playin with the 200 DMA


This trend line should offer resistance, but like I said before 1290 - 1300 area could be the target

The role of uninformed individuals in achieving democratic consensus

Conflicting interests among group members are common when making collective decisions, yet failure to achieve consensus can be costly. Under these circumstances individuals may be susceptible to manipulation by a strongly opinionated, or extremist, minority.

It has previously been argued, for humans and animals, that social groups containing individuals who are uninformed, or exhibit weak preferences, are particularly vulnerable to such manipulative agents.

Here, we use theory and experiment to demonstrate that, for a wide range of conditions, a strongly opinionated minority can dictate group choice, but the presence of uninformed individuals spontaneously inhibits this process, returning control to the numerical majority.

Our results emphasize the role of uninformed individuals in achieving democratic consensus amid internal group conflict and informational constraints.

Science 16 December 2011:
Vol. 334 no. 6062 pp. 1578-1580
DOI: 10.1126/science.1210280

Wednesday

2011-12-20T23:49:00.000-08:00

Expecting 1205 - 1240 till after Christmas

Take notice of the 20 and the 50 DMA near 1222 and 1227.
200 DMA is at the big orange trend line.
Also there is a large wedge developing form the October low. The red upward fork draws the bottom.

If it breaks out we may see 1290 - 1300 one more time. 1300 is a 0.786 Fibonacci retrace level.
But the bottom of this wedge needs to hold or the Bears will take it away.

In conclusion the major trend remains down and there are strong forces in both directions containing the market.

Strong lines containing market movement

1222 support. Watch the yellow fork for guidance

As predicted on Monday... target has been hit. At resistance.

Tuesday

2011-12-20T12:28:00.000-08:00

Very close to my target. Still looking for low 1240 zone. Expect a pull back to 1228 before hitting the 1240 area.

This is actual a vintage footage from the 1930's!! Parkour... Because cool people don't need stairs! lol

Monday

2011-12-19T08:40:00.000-08:00

Nothing happening yet, but this channel is well defined.

Still in the channel. Watching the red and blue forks.
1205 area is key with 1180 as support.
Best guess is a bounce to low 1240's but if support is lost expect an accelerated plunge.

Chico Aquaponic - My new blog

2011-12-17T21:13:00.000-08:00

I have started a new Blog.

Chico Aquaponic

I hope you will take a look now and then to see the progress.
I hope to begin building the system in a few weeks, and will post photos along the way.

Friday

2011-12-16T09:35:00.000-08:00